The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Wild Card Weekend Bets

Episode Date: January 14, 2023

Alex breaks down the NFL playoff games from Wild Card Weekend and gives you his best picks. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome to another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline, Monaco. Can you tell them, jacked up, fired up naturally, no caffeine, froze up organically, lots. I am, I'm through the moon excited. This is to me, and division. round the two best weekends in football. We're getting a five-game slate with a Monday night dance. Now, as much as I want to talk Cowboys' Bucks,

and trust me, I want to talk it. I got a pick. I don't want to call it a lock. I absolutely love which side I'm on in TB versus Jerry's World. But it's Monday night. We got to go in order of importance, in order of the games. that I have been dialed up to speak on. And we're starting out.

As I let you know, 48, 36 and 3 against the spread on the Money Line Monaco weekend podcast. We wrap 18 weeks, two dubs away from 50. 48, 36 and 3 people. Very, very proud of that. Again, if you've been rocking with me, tailing me, fading me, fading me, having fun with me, any rate review goes along. way, hit the pound button on the volume sports YouTube channel. Any of it is a win. Means a lot goes a long way. All picks tracked on Action Network. So it's a winning NFL season as

we dive in. Let's not waste any time here. I know you're chomping out the bit. I'm fired up. Here we go. Five picks. Five against the spread. All right. We're going to start out in Orchard Park. We're going to start out in Buffalo. And this one has some line movement. Because obviously two has been listed out. Teddy's been potentially flirted with getting the shot, getting the chance from Mike McDaniel. It is now officially Skyler Thompson. The third string quarterback under center for Miami,

the guy that gave nine points of offense for a must win against the Jets last week. They get 11 on a safety and a sick Scotty Van Badby backdoor cover. We'll leave that there. This is a 13 and a half point. line people. This is a big number. But you know what? I don't like a lot of favorites against the spread this weekend, but I have to swallow the points here. I mean, it is so important. And I will speak on this more when it's Purdy and Gino's time to dance on the pod. But a man that has never started in the playoffs, under center, Skyler, going against.

Really, Tim the Toolman Allen has been absolutely lights out in his playoff career. Now, he owns a lot of turnovers this season. He's got 19 on the year, 14 interceptions. His playoff numbers all time, Josh Allen, 14 tugs one mistake. He's fifth all time in passing yards already. In the history of the NFL, of course, smaller sample size, but he's fifth right. there at a little over 280 per. Now, you look at this team, and I'm speaking on Josh Allen's bills, they've been through what no one prepared for with Damar Hamlin and just arguably

the most emotional week in football I've ever remember. Amazing news. Demar's on an incredible recovery path. He actually was told he could go home, thank God. Prayers working. Amazing. This lifts, lifts the energy up so much and just any sort of burden or anything that anyone was feeling in Buffalo, just playing football, even more so. Passed out Patriots game. Now on playoff mode, they can relax knowing Demar is working his way back. to full strength out of Cincinnati's hospital. It's an amazing win. So this team, they come in against New England.

New England had a chance to win and get in, by the way. If they beat Buffalo last week, they would have gotten this playoff spot, not Miami. And what happened with Josh Allen against his past deed? He cooked 254 and three pugs, an incredibly stout Patriots D, by the way. And now who does he go against this week? Miami's defense is bottom seven in passing yards, bottom seven and passing touchdowns allowed, defensive interceptions, bottom seven, as well as overall takeaways, bottom seven. They give up yards, they give up points, they give up passing touchdowns, and they don't

turn the ball over. Look, Miami's in this spot. They free fall at the end of the season. That losing streak was over a month. It was hard to watch. They are in this because of what they did offensively, the first half of the season. That's gone. That's gone. What they did against the Jets, in South Beach, by the way, there is certain teams in the league. I'm not spending too much time on this game.

That at home and on the road, they're Jekyll and hot. At Ace Ventura land, they're unbelievable. on the road, they're terrible. They're mediocre at best. Now, when I tell you at best, three and six on the road, they're one and four against the spread versus teams that made the playoffs this year. This is potentially going to be a routing. Now, it's playoff football.

These are teams that ended 21, 19, and 32, 29 against each other. So you would easily sit here on any other Pacino Sunday and say there's no way I'm swallowing 13.5. This line moved, by the way. It was around 10 and a half, 11. This has been serious line movement trending towards the bills because it's Skylar Thompson. I have to take out what happened between these two previous outings. I have to. What this Jets team did defensively against Miami,

they completely shut them down, shut them out. Dolphins, first W, with less than 261 passing yards since week three, ironically against the bills. That's how rare they pulled this rabbit out of a hat W against New York last week. 399.6 yards. That's how many passing yards the bills have averaged, over the past three games. When Miami gives up over that number,

one in three on the season. I'm telling you, there's going to be very competitive games this weekend. Very interesting outcomes. This is not one of them. Buffalo rolls. I am a favorites guy, but this is the rare number I will swallow

a combination of Buffalo at home. versus a Miami offense that cannot move the football and a defense that cannot stop the football being moved. This is one of those numbers they want you in Vegas. I would hypothesize to take the dog. Just like Monday, TCU, Georgia, don't do it, baby. Take the better team. Below minus 18 and a half.

All right. You ready for this? Are you ready? for a dog day dance. The New York football Giants heading to Kirk non-prime time Cousinsland, the rookie head coach, Davidson.

And that's O'Connell. Now, you can call him a rookie as well, but this man has got a ring, plural. The coaching edge, unequivocally, without question, with conviction, goes to the Giants.

And I'm going to tell you, right here right now. This plus three, this plus three is a, I'm going to say a beautiful number to purchase. I am loving the New York football Giants. I like them to win the game. I'm here to give you a winner. Take the plus three. I'm on that money line as well as plus three. Beautiful thing about Fandu. You can buy an alternate spread. You can purchase a three and a half. You can purchase a four and a half. The four and a half number was the line a few weeks ago when they covered and the Vikings needed 17 in the fourth to come back and hit a Greg Joseph 61 yarder to beat the G-Men just so you know what we're working with. This is one team in New York that is 13 and

four against the spread on the season. There's six and one ATS as a road underdog people. Six and one. six and one. They've covered their last four. They've covered their last month of football. They've covered their last four on the road, as I just mentioned, what they are as an underdog often. Going against Minnesota,

who is not a good cover on the season. Now, we're talking against the spread here. It's playoffs. Spread is very important. It's not as prevalent in the playoffs when you're talking about the number three, in my opinion. The books are not wanting a push here.

It's odd that it's staying at three. It's a little fishy because it's big time bet tickets coming in on Minnesota. The public is all over Minnesota. I'm telling you right here right now. But this Giants team, who's the ultimate bend but not break club, the ultimate bend but not break club. They didn't give up a 35. yard pass for a touchdown since two-thirds into the season against the Eagles who throw deep

bombs on everybody. Now, Minnesota, just so you know, we've never seen a team and their points for and points against it ended up a little bit in the negative. It's embarrassing what we've saw. Never. Have we seen a team get outscored, outscored since the merger in the 70s and have a double-digit victory on wins. This mini team is 11 and 0 on one-score games. It's an Obamination. The Minnesota defense is 31st in overall D. 31st is 32 teams. They're 28th in scoring the 28th. They give up the 28th most. That's not a playoff team. Defensively speaking, They're here because of Kirk in the offense. Now, if Kirk's played out of his mind, I got to give him credit.

All right. The voluntarily tuck in his shirt on a Sunday afternoon family barbecue, Kirk non-prime time is playing great. But if you saw what Martindale and this scheme did in the first dance against them, they held Dalvin and checked. They made Kirk beat him. And look, they got 25 receptions between Jefferson and Hawkinson the first time they danced. There's no way that happens again.

So it looked like they made. Kirk beat them. I imagine that's the case again. Now, I want to mention an interesting number here. When Sequin gets the ball 20 plus times, the Giants have nine wins and two losses as of late. Let's also remind you, the Giants had no problem moving the football against Minnesota a few weeks back. Season high for Danny Jones. Danny Dimes. Woody from Toy Story, goes for 334. Saquan racked up 133 from scrimmage. So if this stable scheme to me, protect Daniel Jones from turning the ball over, which he's gone over a month in multiple instances here

without turning the ball over on a Costco sample size of the season. He's done this. He doesn't turn the ball over. If they run the rock, keep the TOP, and don't let the big play happen to shift momentum because that's what Giants football is. Keep you in the game all 60 minutes, wear you down.

It's Frabble Tennessee-esque. They don't have overwhelming, personnel. They're doing it with receivers you couldn't even move the football in Maddenwick. Hodges, James. It's not an 80 overall insight. It's impressive. This is pure scheme, pure coached up, Davey, Dr. Ebel, genius. And I cannot tell you enough, enough how mediocre this Minnesota the defense is. It will keep the Giants in this game. I have to take the three points here. I have to do it. 31st rank D plus three, the New York football giants. I like them to win. If you're feeling Austin Powers dangerous, they're plus 136 on the money line.

For a season like Minnesota's half, you think the number would be higher. It isn't. I got an inkling Vegas know some. All right, let's talk about another divisional dance. There's three of them this weekend. Let's get to number two. This is a really fascinating game to cap. And take everything with a grain of salt because when this hit your ears, a lot could change. This is a Sunday night, 815 Eastern, Ravens at Bengals back to back.

They danced last week, dancing again. And we, as this hits your ears, have no idea who the starting quarterback is. the Baltimore Ravens. All I can tell you is that this line was at six and a half. It is up to eight and a half on Fandul, and I am inking it at Baltimore plus eight and a half. Now, huge, huge public link here on Sinci, rightfully so, a record-breaking cover here. They have covered, it's the greatest run in just under 25 games. They've covered 20. I've never seen a run like this against the spread for CINC in my millennial life.

But this is the Baltimore Raiders. This is 18. When it comes to road playoff games, they're 7 and 1 in their last eight. Playoff games on the road. Head to headwise, got to mention this. Baltimore's won six of their last 10 against CINC. but Bengals in this head-to-head are six three and one against the spread. Now, there's a lot of ways to look at this game and break it down.

It's Baltimore and their company culture, their defense since Roquan Smith joined the team from the Bears, and I'll talk about this, versus Joey Buckets, Joey Burr, fellow, fellow, volume sports college. But let's talk this out here. Third time they've danced. Third time they danced this year. And they just danced last week. Now they split.

It was 1916 Baltimore, week five, as three-point dogs. And then 2716 last week. Now, Anthony Brown, undrafted quarterback out of Oregon, was the quarterback. We got a PCL issue with Lamar. We have elbow tendonitis with Huntley. It sounds like, and I watched a Harbaugh press conference before purchasing this, Huntley is practicing and Huntley will play at worst. I am comfortable enough giving you if Huntley is the man,

Baltimore plus eight and a half here. I am. Since Roquan Smith joined this team, Halloween, baby, listen to these numbers. They've only given up 132 points since. that week. Second best, second fewest, but second best to the San Francisco 49ers. They've only given up eight, eight touchdowns. How about four touchdowns to receivers in their last nine games? Now, that eight, that eight number is eight passing touchdowns. That's to all running back to wide receivers.

This four touchdowns to wide receivers only over the last nine is even, more impressive. Their top four in sacks. They got 19 quarterback pressures. That's third most amongst linebacker duos only. That's a linebacker contingent stat. And they have the third best pass rush. All action network stats, by the way.

Great site, great source. So you have a lights out defense that is only here because of their defense. They haven't scored any offense, any offense since Lomwell. Marr has been gone. It's been brutal. You watch Brown go 19 of 44 last week for 286 and a pair of touchdown, pair of interception, excuse me, sack four times, fumble. Hard to watch. But here's what I'll say in that game. Second half specifically, Bengals only had three points. Bengals only had three points. Burrow was quoted. He didn't like how he played. He missed throws. He wished he had some back. Now, if Baltimore historically in this spot covers,

and Baltimore historically as an underdog in the AFC North covers. And we've seen it evident even in AFC North battles in the last two months here without Lamar. That being prevalent as well. Look, Joey B, for a guy that had seven touchdowns in two games, prior against the Patriots and the bucks, respectively. Goes for 25 for 42 for 215 and a tug. We're really comfortable swallowing these points. Even though we know what since he's done against a spread,

go look up your splits action network. You go to V-Sin, you go to Vegas Insider, pick a site any site. The tickets are slammed on the Bengals. This is a bet where the books need Baltimore. You tell me the last time the books needed something and they didn't get it. Mama wants Mama gets in Vegas, people. I'm sorry.

I trust Huntley, if Lamar plays this line, will steam all the way down to six in two seconds. And you purchase this and you can always buy out. You can buy out of the spot. I'm not buying out of the spot. Anthony Brown, my pick is the under at 40 and a half. If it's Huntley or Lamar, we take the eight and a half to the bank. All right, let's talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Hosting my favorite, but also toxic, in and out of an ex but sort of relationship with the former San Diego, now LA Chargers. It is a fascinating matchup. Everyone wants to take the Chargers. Everybody public perception-wise wants to take Her beat. Chargers are favorite at minus two and a half and minus 134. When I tell you, when I tell you what Trevor Lawrence is done in the last eight weeks. And this five game, Jaggs win streak, that ends Jacksonville, top 10 in points per game, top 10 in yards. My guy, for the whole football world to see, sunshine, don't call him Spacoli. Hi, how are you? Six and two in his last eight, 14 tugs two interceptions. This man led the league in picks with 17 last year. Urban, who broke every wedding crowd.

Rule known the man, swipe left on, you're bringing Dougie Championship Peterson. He cuts his interceptions in half. His quarterback rate up over 24 points. His completion rating up 6.7. In this five-game win streak, he's only been sacked four times, no more than once every game. Why I remind you what happened? Just a few weeks into the season, we had no idea of the job. Jaguars were. We saw them blow a 25 point lead already. This is a team that's blown 25 point

lead and come back down 25 points. Shout the Cowboys. This Jaguars team spanked. Her grown men feelings against the Chargers when they dance against them. 38 10. 38 and what you remember that vividly. Trevor Lawrence, 71 completion percentage. 262. Three tugs. No mistakes. ETN, by the way, is top nine with over 1100 yards in the league. He's top 80 in yards per carry. He's over 100, eight times. The charges give up 150 on the ground, bottom five. Bottom five worst run. defense. Now, they have a serviceable, more than serviceable past defense, and the Jaguars have a lackluster past defense as well. Herbert could throw for 300 yards here. He could, but reminds yourself, the Jags defense still pop 12 in points against. It's Jags defense. They're mediocre.

mediocre, I'll give them that at best when it comes to stop in the past and overall yards. But you have Walker, you have Jenkins, you have Josh Allen, the defensive version. You have a few players on this defense that can make plays. And I'm looking in a game like this specifically at the coaching mismatch. Peterson's got a Super Bowl ring. Staley, yes, he's been a part of one. But this dude, I don't trust him driving me on GPS if I didn't have my contacts in. If I had to rely on my stigmatism and stately pointing me where to go,

I would pull over and call AAA. That's how not confident I am and staley as the head coach in this game. Look, I got to remind you, not only did this team lose by. 28 to the Jaguars. The Chargers on the road, they're not who you think they are. All right, you beat Cleveland with Jacoby Percept by two.

You beat the Cardinals. You had to go for, you had to score at the very end and get a two-point conversion. By one. You lost to the Raiders, the Chiefs, and just now the Broncos, all on the road.

All divisional dances on the road you lost. You sauce Jeff Saturday on a Monday with Nick no longer big, false. Mazel, mazel. I'm here to tell you, go look at the important games on the road, the big games on the road for the Chargers. And the other thing I got to mention, you take the Chargers when you get points, you fade them when they're laying them. The Jags as a home dog, I like multiple home dogs this weekend. If you can catch the blues clue, I.

The Jaguars. Situational football. Public all over the Chargers. And we're getting two and a half right now. I like the Jags money line. I'm here to get you a win. Official purchase. Jack's plus two and a half.

Last but not least, Seattle. And Pete Carroll's bazooka bubble gum. nine and a half points heading to San Francisco. This is where we get funky. Since 1990, the year I was born, rookie quarterbacks, pretty Mr. Relevant, 10 and 17 straight up. 10 and 17 straight up, rookie quarterbacks,

three and 10 straight up in the last decade. How about rookie quarterback's wildcar weekend over the last 20 years against the spread, which you may want to know? 4-7 and 1 ATS. I got to be honest. You take those two. You add in this one. The Niners swept the hump, all right? It's a 20th team in the wild card era to face an opponent after a straight-up sweep for the third time.

did those teams fare? 9, 9, and 1 against the spread. Here's the thing. This team's on a 10-game win streak, San Francisco. We haven't seen them look bad in a long time. There's been 15 teams coming into the playoffs on a 10-plus game win streak. I don't know how this is a real number. Action Network, don't miss, baby.

7 and 8, 2 and 13 against the spread. Teams with a 10-game win streak. Wildcard weekend. You can't even fathom, fathom those numbers. How do we swallow nine and a half after listening to that? Tell me how we swallow nine and a half after listening to that. Look, Gino Smith was telling you week one, they wrote him, he didn't write back. Gino Smith is not your neighborhood cold a sack, three flies up quarterback people.

This man is the number one completion percentage in the player. He's the number one most efficient completion quarterback at 69.8 in this dance. He's top 10 in all of these categories. And he's top five and three of them. Touchdown passes, passing yards. and passer rating. Gino Smith. Here's one.

He was even better on the road than he was at home. 71.7 completion percent. 15 tugs five mistakes. Lockett, four straight thousand yard receiving season. Pennet Walker, three straight games coming into this one

over 100 yards on the ground. He inks Seattle's first rookie rusher over a thousand, ever. I look at the, this game and I say to myself, the Niners should roll. CMC average in over 110 on the ground and 10 rushing and receiving in the 10 game win streak. Kittle, seven tugs in four games.

Debo's back. He's averaging 100 plus in the playoffs in his career. It should all work. But I got a weird, weird feeling Seattle makes this real ugly. There is some weather forecast out there saying it could be rainy. dude, just tell yourself, say it out loud. Seattle wasn't even supposed to be here because the lions weren't supposed to crush two Dan Campbell coffees and beat the Packers in Lambo. They're in a pressure free spot. All the pressure is on San Fran, even with a rookie quarterback, expectations

wazoo. Seattle's win loss over under in Vegas was five and a half. They've been playing with house money. When you're playing loose, you're playing limber and you're up against these trends that we're seeing that I just read you. And Gino can just at least keep it competitive. I got to take the points. Now, I remember this dance and the Seahawks a few weeks ago look terrible. They played them already in the last month. It was hard to watch if you were on Seattle. But this is playoff football with rain. And this is. playoff football with a rookie playoff starter for the first time. I got to take the points.

So in conclusion, I'm on Buffalo Swall in the 13 and a half. I'm taking the G-Men plus three. I am taking with conviction the Ravens plus eight and a half at the moment. I'm going Jags plus two and a half. I'm going to Hawks plus nine and a half. And I'm giving you numerous Cowboys' Bucks picks on Monday, a Monday show. Let's get out of here with a Fandul ad. NFL Wild Car Weekend is here, baby, and it's the easiest way to get into the playoffs

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Make every moment more with Fandau, official sportsbook partner of the NFL. All right. Money line, Monaco's picks are locked and loaded. Hug your mothers. Clear the schedule. Let the diet go and enjoy the playoffs. The volume.