The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Will Dolphins & Seahawks stun Bills & 49ers? Saints a lock in NFC South?

Episode Date: September 6, 2023

Alex Monaco is joined by Martin Weiss of the ‘Lemon Pepper Parlay Podcast’ to break down NFL futures bets. The two debate whether Derek Carr and the Saints will roll through the NFC South, if the Seahawks will take down the 49ers in the NFC West, and whether Tua Tagovailoa’s Dolphins will unseat Josh Allen’s Bills atop the AFC East. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. All right, welcome into another episode of sports gambling with MoneyLy. Monaco, Alex Monaco, joined by my good friend on camera and off. Martin Weiss, co-host of the Lemon Pepper Parlay podcast on our cousin here at Volume Omaha. And my man is killing it on Fox Sports Radio. He's got the Martin and VJ show weekly Saturday night, 5 to 8 Pacific time. I've had the luxury of calling in. Martin's giving me the free.

rain talk about the shirt on wearing the Padres et cetera Martin fired out to be with you my man another another trip around the pod sun with you always a blast. Hey man, let me tell you something. Anytime I get to chop it up with you on or off camera, it's always a blast because like I say, I know you call yourself Moneyline Monica, but I like to add a little bit of maniac in there too. If it wasn't so early in the morning, I would, you know, you are wired every day and I love talk. It's going to be a blast. So thanks for having me on, my friend. Hey, of course. And look, I'd be remiss if I didn't start out. We're going to go a little bit around the league here and just talk division by division, see where you're at. I'll throw out the futures bets are the numbers a little bit on each division. We might not get to all eight, but I got to start out in your division. And again, the teams that you support, I know you're an alumni of Michigan. Any team Martin Rockswood, just to set the table is he's all in. He's die hard, off the air on. the air and I know you ride and die with your New Orleans Saints and we got an interesting

NFC South here. We talked off air about it. I was shocked, but I am all over your New Orleans Saints. Please tell me why you do not have your boys winning this division. Because, Alice, you've handicapped enough professional football to know one thing. What's the most important combination? It's not left tackles, if not the defensive backs, if not the wide receivers, it's your head coach and your quarterback. Those are the most important combination in the NFL. Luckily, we've seen Dennis Allen and Derek Carr be paired up before. Unluckily for them, they did it for four years and won 11 games. That's the problem, right? Dennis Allen won seven games last year as a head coach in the NFL, nearly doubling his career win total in the four years prior.

If the Saints win the division, it will be a departure from history that we have seen between Derek Carr and Dennis Allen, who prior to this last season was upward with Hugh Jackson with worst winning percentages in NFL history. Now, this Saints team lost. Now, okay, you say, all right, well, you know, Dennis Allen, second shot at being a head coach. Well, you know what happened last year? That defense, that New Orleans defense, the same New Orleans defense that was giving Tom Brady fit. when he played for the Tampa Buccaneers fell off a cliff. And maybe it fell out, maybe it lands it on a midway ledge there, right?

It didn't fall all the way off a cliff. They weren't like the worst defense in football. But the Saints calling card through Drew Brees is the end of his career was we're going to run the ball with Camara, get him in space, throw slants to Michael Thomas, and we're going to play defense. Right. That was it. That was the way that they were going to get it done because Breeze was going to get them into the right play. Right. Now, you have Derek Carr who, yeah, he's a veteran.

You know, he has a lot of experience. But it's like, he's like a Toyota Corolla, right? With 175,000 miles. Guys got car in his last name. You're calling him a Toyota Corolla Martin? Look, it's standard. It's not going to just break down on you, right? He was in, to give you a cowherd analogy, dude was in a toxic.

relationship in his first marriage. The guy was playing on an Oakland A's infield. Half of his career with no defense, not a soul in the land that I even want to hang my hat on outside of Khalil Matt for a cup of coffee, which they botched and Max Crosby. He's had nothing. No stability, changing cities.

I mean, what do you want? What do you expect from the guy? And he's been a four-time pro bowler. You're acting like you're in Hickering? I don't know, Monaco. I don't know. Maybe just maybe. Here's what I want to know.

Go ahead. Why is everybody in the betting world all over the Atlanta Falcons? You're telling me you don't trust the Saints D. I don't trust almost 40-year-old. And I love Jared, his brother, Callais Campbell, to fix an entire front seven that was last in the league in sacks. That was worst in the league on third down. That was our second worst in the league on third down. And bottom 10 in turnovers.

Again, you run the ball great. mazel tub. You're 31st in passing offense last year. Is Ritter going to come in and turn that all around? If I'm going company culture here in a turnover for NFC South year, I'm backing the Saints company culture with eight hours of comfortable rest on my Casper mattress. I'm not touching the Atlanta Falcons, but tell me why.

What am I not seeing? Or are you saying it's more about the Saints instability than it is about the Falcons turn in a corner here? Well, the last part is Saints instability for sure. I mean, Jimmy Graham just made this 53-man roster. They just traded away Will Lutz. You know what they traded away, well, Lutz? Because they can't afford to pay Will Lutz.

So they have to go with the rookie kicker because they can't, they're so cash trapped, they can't afford to pay the kicker. So they had to trade, I mean, think about that in just in terms of a salary cap league, right? Everybody is the same amount of money ostensibly to spend, right? You can go over it and pay a tax, but in general, the same amount of money. so many teams finish what used to be 500, right? Now, 450 to 650, you know, 550, right? There's no more 500.

David on Yuma, another salary cap casualty for New Orleans. They would love to have him. You know what he plays now? Next to 40-year-old Callais Campbell in Atlanta, right? He's going to, look, I get it. I'm not saying the Falcons are going to be world beaters. No one in this division is going to be world beaters. But the Saints have had a brain drain of talent on the defensive side of the ball.

Cam Jordan's another year old. talking about old defense events. But really, for me, it just comes down to, all right, Derek Carr had nothing in his career in Vegas, right? Or in Oakland, Vegas, wherever you want to call it. Except for Devante Adams, except for the league leading Russia last year. And I know that they blew up. I know that.

But the defense, the defense, double-digit leads, so what it's up. When you look at the final scores of those games, right, it's not like the Raiders were losing, 44 to 45, right? It's you, they're not, they weren't scoring 30, 40 points a game. And like, okay, so you jumped out to a 17-0 lead or 20-point lead in the beginning. You got to continue to tackle on points. You got you got to continue to move the ball. That's the way this league works.

I mean, think about how many times you've seen a team jump out to an early 23, uh, 21 to three lead going into the half and thought. But, man, I should really live bet on the team that's down because they're going to come back and make this a game and when it's all said and done. These games generally are ending in one possession outcomes. And think about if Jacob Myers doesn't throw the ball to Chandler Jones, they have another loss in that.

I mean, it's just that offense didn't. And I know is Josh McDaniels, but you know what I did here, the good news, is John Gruden was consulting since it worked so well with them with John Gruden and Derek Carr, John Gruden was down consulting the offense in New Orleans. So it's just a whole bunch of, I feel like I've seen this movie before, and it wasn't that great the first time. Listen, sub me in for Austin Powers, the spy is shag me.

Give me the Saints sequel. Dude, Martin, second best passing D from last season, the Eagles and then the Saints, Marshawn Latimore, the Honey Badger. Are we sitting here telling ourselves? that this team was not a top 10 defense and points against. I mean, you got swept by the bucks, swept by the Panthers. Two things that won't happen.

Not to mention, we don't even know what Derek Carr is with a real defense. Are you not willing to bet on a guy who was a pro bowler who's gone over 4,000 yards, six of his last nine seasons in a little bit of stability? I know you feel like Dennis Allen is abysmal. I'm not sitting here saying that. but this dude just cooked with Josh McDaniels, who was the least leader of Gerald Butler 300 men I've ever seen in this league. Next to maybe Matt Patricia.

I don't get it. I do not get, and I'm not saying that the Falcons didn't go out and get Bud DePree and Callais, and I do like that they picked up Jesse Bates and Okuda. Jesse Bates is a dog. I know. I'm not saying they're not going to get better on defense. They're going to get better on defense.

They're going to get better on defense. The reality is this is a new quarterback, and he's going to be babysitting. Has Kyle Pitts done anything in this league yet? Anything. And I love the Bejohn Robinson pick, but I'm sorry. I'm back in Derek Carr all day long. I'm shocked. I hope you're going to, I hope you're going to be okay with being wrong about your team.

I'm all about fading the chargers. I just, the Chargers aren't the Saints. The Saints have a real company culture. They have an identity on that. No, no, no. That's what you're missing. They used to have a company culture. But then the quarterback Drew Brees retired and Sean Payton was sitting on Colin

Calhurt's couch for a year. The culture now is being reestablished in Denver. They used to have a culture. But what happened is the lead singer left and the band manager left. How many? Let me ask you this. How many wins do you think wins this division? I think a 9 and 8, 9 and 8, absolute ceiling.

No teams getting 11 wins in this division. I'm going to go 9 and 8 wins this. If not, if Derek Carr, quarterbacks a team to 9 wins this year, it will be the third highest in his career in a season. 12 back in 2016, 10, back in 2020. He hasn't had a defense. I'm just, hey, listen, he's an 8th and 8th,

and 18, and I think you add B. John Robinson to already what was one of the most dynamic rushing attacks in football. Desmond, do you watch quarterback on Netflix produced by Omaha Productions? Marcus Marriota was terrible. He was horrible and still had a game in which he completed his first 15 passes. Arthur Smith. I'm not saying, look, Arthur Smith, made the playoffs consistently as an offensive coordinator

with Ryan Tannenhill as his quarterback. Since Arthur Smith left, the Raiders gave up more points than they scored last year. The Raiders, I'm looking at it right now, are right above the Texans, defensively speaking. Do you know where the Saints were last year? Defensively, same category?

Sandwich between Pennsylvania's finest, the Eagles and the Steelers. I mean, he's had a, a toxic, dysfunctional, abusive wife in the Raiders. His entire career, all he's done is put up stats. I mean, we were talking out on a previous episode, what Devante Adams did last year. Look at the offense in which he cooked with last year.

You mean to tell me you're not confident with Olavé, Kamara, the lead, leading, rushing touchdown lad and Jamal Williams, really a rotation of tight ends that I don't hate. Should be rotation. Rashid Shahid and Michael Thomas. I'm sorry. Let's not act like he's rolling into an offense with no weapons. Camaro's only out for three games, not a D-Havs six.

I think we're sorely forgetting that Derek Carr has been in such a tumultuous situation that anything is a step up from the Raiders. anything. The Raiders are that poorly run. They're okay with Jimmy G with no wedding ring, gallivanting around like Tom Cruise. He's done nothing. He's done nothing without the support of Belichick and Shanahan. And he's spending his free time flipping around in the air like a blue angel. I'm sorry. I'm all over the Saints. You talk about he had an abusive relationship, right? He did. He did. Okay. Well, how about this? I live in the AFC West. I grew up in the AFC West. How about this?

The brain trust of the Raiders, which again, IQ score was variable. They may not be very good. But you know what they were willing to do? They were willing to sign a guy who may not have passed his physical because he had a chip in his foot to move on from the quarterback they passed this 2014. Look, they broke up with it. You don't got to start dating them. They broke up with them. You don't got to start dating them.

Just remember that. All right. Let's move to another division. I'm schfitzin now. Guys got me schfitsen like it's like it's Yom Kippur and I'm fast. I mean, the reality of the situation is neither one of these teams are going to be any good. Like when we're in the grand scheme of it, I really think that we're walking in here. And this is going to be the fourth best team.

This is going to be the fourth home game in the NFC because whoever wins the division. And then they'll probably get pounded by the much better wild card. You just watched a team with Haysom Hill. Dalton and Winston, three quarterbacks. Three quarterbacks last year, Martin. This is your team. I'm trying to have you look at your team optimistically. And they still won seven games.

And oh and watchable in the division, which will not be the case. They will go four and two in that division and they will win the South at plus money. I'm telling you, I'm not saying the Falcons aren't eight and nine. I like the Falcons against second. I just, Arthur Smith, I can't do it.

I cannot do it. I guess you think Dennis Allen's that back because Derek Carr ain't. I do think Dennis Allen is not a head coach in this league. I really don't. I want to move. Go, yeah, let's move on. No, let's move on. No, no, last second on Dennis Allen.

Because if you're talking to me, I haven't punched a ticket yet because I'm not in New York. I'll be in New York any second now. You tell me if you really think Dennis Allen, is he a bottom? five head coach going into this season? I think so. I think he should be on the hot seat, bottom five head coach. You should look all.

If he did not go back to New Orleans as a defensive coordinator, I think we have to really wonder about his record is comparable to Hugh Jackson. Hugh Jackson currently coaches at Gambling State. You know, like, like, there's only so many chances that you get in this league. And if he had to have the opportunity to go back under Sean Payton, who again in New Orleans had a 15 year Tomlin-esque run, right? The only times that he ever lost,

only had a losing season is when he had under NFL sanctions, Sean Payton, right? So, yeah, he was able to go back there where it's like, you know, it's a comfortable place. But if he had to go out there on his own merits, right? Let's say Sean had retired before that was sitting on Kyle's couch for three years instead of one. We've got to wonder where Dennis Allen would be

if he hadn't got the opportunity to come back as to D.C. and part of the reason why he's the head coach now is in part because they took Sean took all the offensive guys with them. Like they're either retired or now they're now working in Denver. So it's like that's, I just don't buy it, man. I don't buy it. All right. All right. Let's go over some other divisions.

Some of them are not to me up for debate. Just real quick, do you have the chiefs winning the West, Niners winning the West? I have the Chiefs winning the West. I have the Niners getting the wild card. Oh my gosh. Do I have to get off the exit and talk about you got the Seahawks? Come on down, baby.

We're not even going to get to a third division. You come on down. No, no, no, no, no. Let me tell what you are believing. All right? This is what you are believing. You are believing that seventh round pick, Mr. Irrelevant, Cinderella himself, Brock Purdy, is going to come into this league and be able to dominate in the same way he was able to dominate for the last eight games of the season.

And if that doesn't work, because Kyle Shanahan has quarterbacks, here's what they do. You know, the one thing all Kyle Shanahan quarterbacks have in common, they get hurt, all right? So when that happens, inevitably, you're going to have I see ghosts famously Sam Darnold as coming in there for at least three, four games. and look, they'll have a great defense, but wait a second, where's Nick Bosa? You know, that's confused. He's on the couch. He's not rushing the passer right now. I know they got Javon Hargrave, and that's a big upgrade.

And I know, but I was like, hey, without Nick Bosa, without, look, Christian McCaffrey might play quarterback for this team at some point. That's where we're at. That's where we're at in San Francisco. You have to be out of your, I'm sorry. Did Pete Carroll call Omaha and ask you guys to sponsor the Seahawks this year? Is that what happened? Was there a business transaction?

Because last time I checked, the San Francisco 49ers, who, oh, by the way, Gryffindor swept the NFC West, swept them, swept them, Seahawks. Not only O and two, add in a Brock Purdy playoff L. O in three, O in three. Only thing Pete Carroll's doing positive against the Niners is chewing bazooka bubble gun. Look at the defense from last year and look at the supporting cast. It doesn't even matter if you don't have a star in the movie. Look at the ensemble of Debo, CMAQ, kiddle, IUC, serviceable offensive line.

Really, let's not sleep on Elijah Mitchell as a change of paceback. Defense. How do we sit here for a team that went 10 and 0 is a hundred? home favorite last year, including the playoffs, didn't lose in the division. You're going to tell me, by the way, sports books give us a little bit of a little bit of a tell. This is the only division with a two game difference in over unders from the first to the second, not even the chiefs have a luxury of a two game over under from the Chargers.

Over under is eight and a half of the Seahawks. Over under is 10 and a half. juiced on the over for the Niners. I'm sorry, Brock Purdy was 5 and 0 with 13 tugs for mistakes. And his first two playoff games, three tugs, no mistakes, 109 QBR. There's a reason Trey Lance is in Jerry Jones world right now. What am I not? What am I not seeing here?

This is a lock. This is an absolute lock. Hey, man. Three out of the four of the last NFC championship games. I get that, but you know what also the last two years they've lost, the guy calling the defense. Robert Saul is now the head coach of the Jets, Damico Ryan, head coach of the Texans. After a minute, Mike McDaniel, now the head coach of the Dolphins, after a minute, there's got to be some level of coordinator brain drain.

Maybe Kyle Shanahan is the greatest coach ever. Maybe that's the case. But I just feel especially, you know, maybe I'm getting too wrapped up in the vibes. The vibes have not been good out of San Francisco out of this, in this offseason. Now maybe when they start to play, things will start to come together, but the vibes have not been good in San Francisco. Maybe I'm falling too far into that, falling into the mishandling of Trey Lance. And the fact that, again, Nicholas John Bosa is sitting on his couch just like you and me right now

and is not currently in the fold in San Francisco. I probably expect to see him week one, but still, is it going to be a T.J. Watt thing where he walks in and all of a sudden week one has three sacks, or is it going to take him a minute to get a little warm? acclimated without training camp. I just feel weird about it. And I just like Seattle, man. I'm there with that.

I like their running game. Look, I'm a big run the ball guy. I'm a big run the ball guy. I like their running game. And on top of this, Gino, I think... The best running back whisperer in the game is Shannon. But that's, but the difference to me is,

this may sound crazy to everybody. It already does sound crazy. No, but I'm going to go ahead. had to say that Gino Smith, the guy who was a second round pick, had a first round grade for a lot of people, and played in New York and grew up a lot, obviously. Had it had his shortcomings in New York, but that's incredible. I mean, he played pretty good last year. I have a feeling he might just be better over 17 games, just off the strength of having played a full 17 games than Brock Purdy, who nobody, including Kyle O'Shanahan, expected to be their

starter this time last year. Can we just see? say this out loud as we hold hands. 20. Let me double check. 25th rank defense and opponent's points per game. Who was number one?

San Francisco 49ers. How about opponents yards per game? 28th. CLC Hawks. Who is number one? Let's not act like this offense is mediocre and they need a defense.

This team on offense was six in points in this NFL climate sticks with a Mr. Irrelevantic quarterback with turnover at that position last year and injuries, fifth and yards per game. I'm flabbergasted. Now, I'm not saying the payout isn't gorgeous. Peek Carroll, I'm with you on top five company cultures, Martin. And to your argument, never had less than seven wins in Seattle, only gone under eight and a half wins the over under total for this year once only got on to that once we're acting like

there's an insane turnaround and personnel up there in the PNW and this C and this Niners team didn't have turnover at the quarterback position they have a little more stability I'm not against your thought that injuries are prevalent in a Shanahan coach quarterback history but if you're banking on an injury at quarterback, I don't think you're betting out of love. I think you're betting out of fear, my friend. Do I dare say? I'm not bad. Look, it just look at the history of the 49ers quarterbacks.

There's the reason why when you watch all these TV shows, they have graphics, Kyle Shanahan's winning percentage with all these different quarterbacks. It's because a lot of them will play because a lot of them get hurt. And I look, I like Brock Pardy as much as the next guy. Last year when they were rolling down the stretch, I was calling them Brock the Lock, right? But the idea that he's going to be your long-term plan is one that I'd never really thought the Niners were going to dive into. And like the idea that he just walked in and was like, hey, you know what?

He's the starter without a season to actually, without an off-season to actually improve his game. Because this is one thing I've learned from working with professional athletes. I've never been one, believe it or not. Dave said, when you get hurt at the end of the season, you don't spend any time getting better. You spend it getting healthy, right? So Brock Purdy right now had Tommy John's surgery. Tommy John surgery. And I don't expect it to think he's going to be able to sling it, like the way that he's

going to have to sling it. And then the backup plan, because they messed up, Tray Lance so bad, the backup plan is Mr. Mono himself. Like, I just am having trouble buying this. And again, you know how this league works. How often, how big is the window supposed to be? for the 49. And again, I'm not saying

a finishing last in the division. I've said to get the wild card, right? But if you had to ask you, I think week and week out, offensively, even with a Christian McCaffrey and Devo Samuel, both of whom missed a little bit of time last year,

even with it, I see Seattle being able to control the clock, run the ball, move the ball, and Gino make less mistakes than Brock Purdy does over the span of the 17 games for Seattle to take the division.

But again, you asked me if, look, I'll probably bet on the 49ers 15 times this season, 14 times. So I'm not, I'm not saying I dislike the 49ers. This is not, don't equate this to Saints. Hey, don't, don't do that. Here's a thing. We're talking about the number one team last year and turnover differential. Takeaways to giveaways, number one.

Gino, they wrote back. He didn't write back Smith. Didn't break 240 yards of passing against this defense in the regular season. One touchdown. One in eight quarters. It's going to come down to divisional play to win this division. And it is varsity and it is JV. I'm sorry. I will back a number one defense.

And yes, Bosa is a concern. But let's not act like Hargrave is a pack of Skittles inheriting on the front line. They can be fine with Hargrave, Fred Warner, and the rest of this top shelf cast. Let's move on. But I can't believe that you are on the Seahawks to win the division. It is a beautiful payout, but it's only two to one. It's not a six to one, seven to one. Seahawks are two to one.

Minus 165 for the number one defense. I'm swall in the juice, baby. Good luck. I'm not good luck. We probably have time for one more division. Might have to have you back for a part two. Dealers choice. We can talk AFC North.

If you do not believe that the Baltimore Ravens are winning the division because they are, we can talk that out. If you want to beat team Bengals, do I dare say Brown Steelers? Or we can go AFC East with it, Bill Shet's Fin's Patriots. Which one are you feeling? I'm on the bills to win the division.

but I'm very high on the team total over for the Jets and them getting in the playoffs. Okay. I'm trying to figure out which one you'll scream about more. Let's go to AFC East. But if you're on the Jets, I'm not against, I'm not anti-Jets here.

But if you're on the Dolphins, I'm ready to stand up, take a walk, exhale, and sit back down. Listen, if Tula stays upright. Oh my God. If Tewa stays upright, Alex. Come on, man. Look, all he's got to do is play point guard. And then, listen,

that's all he's ought to do is just be Chris Paul. It's all he's got to do. So all he's got to do is play point guard. Just get the ball out to these animals that you have in space and Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Look, Mike McDaniel, I think learned his lesson up there in Buffalo. Okay? Up there, that Buffalo game started, Stuyler Thompson. All right? I think he learned. learned his lesson because if he got those play calls that a little bit faster, that Buffalo team might have lost that wild car game to another seventh round of Skylar Thompson out of Kansas State.

All right? Now here's the big key, though, for the Miami Dolphins. They have a competent, they have a competent adult in the defensive coordinator room. Vic Fangio, listen, I listen to Jordan Rodry, she did this whole thing on the play callers, right? like Shanahan, Kyle Shanahan, McDaniel, Mike McDaniel,

and the guys who all came out of that room in Washington in 2012, that RG3 brain trust that spread out and is now running the NFL's offense, right? You know the one thing these guys had in common most of the time? They would hire Big Fansio to get their defense together. So I don't love the fact that Mike McDaniel is a head coach that ignores two thirds of the ball, I think that is a bad recipe for it. Like, I don't love it.

I actively saying I don't love it. But I know offensively he's going to be, I think he'll be better this year than he was last year because I think it'll be a little bit more simple for him. Secondly, how do you eat? No, no, please, please continue. I was saying Vic Fangio is shown he's shown that he's able to get pressure with four,

play exotic on the back end. Yvonne Holland is the stud. I know Xavier, Howard had a down year, but I think it'll be good in this system, right? Be on the lookout for Verone McKinley the third, the other safety on the other side of of Devon Holland. I think they have great safety play in coming. Jalen Ramsey getting hurt.

Don't love it, obviously, but should be back for a stretch run down the, you know, as it gets a little bit colder outside, should be back for a stretch run, especially when those games and, you know, after Thanksgiving, they just mean a little bit more, right? I can see this team going on a run. And a lot of it, in part, is I am worried about Buffalo. Listen, how do you even explain as prolific as this offense was Miami last year? They were negative in the point differential department. I'm not saying it's not an improved defense.

Even David Long on the linebacker spot, I like. Obviously, Rams, you'll be back, meniscus tear, hopefully December. But one in three without Tua, this is not the Ravens being able to put Huntley in and bank on a solid coached up club. McDaniel's a little over his head as far as being a head coach right now. And really he's so young. He's so young. I don't know that he's he's figured out his identity yet.

To me, if it was like a player and in explaining what he is where he's out, he's still a prospect. I don't know. I'm not saying he's sitting here and still figuring out on offense, fourth-rank passing offense, but I do have the dolphins over nine-and-a-half wins, and I do have the dolphins going to the playoffs.

So I'm not anti-Astventura land by any means. I just sit here and have to remind you that this Buffalo Bills team lost three games last year by a combined eight points. Now, I'm not saying that the dolphins didn't show up and show out, especially in that absolute shootout in the wildcar round, but this Bill's team because of the dramatic ending to their year and how abruptly it ended in that three score L in the division round to the to the Bengals I think we forget that this team was the number one point

differential team in the AFC and second only to the Niners who you're also fade what's 169 points scored more than giving up only to the chiefs by a tick Did they have second fiddle and overall offensive points per game? This team ended on a seven game winning streak. They've lost two of the last three years at Bill's Mafia land, two games at home. Two of the last three years, they've gone seven and one at home. I know Miami home field is sick. They put everyone in the sun while in the shade.

Sure, sure. But we're going to sit here and really put the dolphins over the bills. Do I dare say the disrespect for 12 now eight in New York? Listen, yeah, first of all, I like the Jets. I don't know if it's the Hard Knocks mix, like I'm, but I'm into, I like the Jets too. I said Aaron Rogers is like an Instagram model, man. As long as he's doing it like slow motion with the sound off, he looks beautiful. But as soon as he starts to talk, it's like, oh my goodness, please stop, stop, stop.

I don't know if you caught it in Hard Knocks when Zach Wilson was like, why used to wear wired headphones? And he's like, I don't want to get those EMF emissions. And I'm like, all right, conspiracy Rogers. is back, baby. Conspiracy Rogers is back. But no, man, I think the Jets, I think, again, great young team with them. So I like where they're headed and Aaron Rogers.

He seems he's going to be, he'll eventually at some point throughout the season will turn petulant. But I think Garrett Wilson will help him get in a much better mood because Garrett Wilson is disgustingly nice, all right? But to speed on the outside for Miami, having a better defensive coordinator, he'll be able to get pressure with those guys that got up front like Jalen Phillips.

Vic Fangio will dial it up, simulated pressures, all that type of stuff. He'll get them together in a way that they haven't been together. Just think about how Denver was. You know what I'm saying? They'll get him together in a way that they weren't together in the past.

Mike McDaniel shortcomings as a head coach. I agree with you 100%. Vic Fangio, former head coach, had shortcomings on the offensive side of the ball. He's going to help McDaniel get in shape with that. Buffalo fires Leslie Frazier or lets him walk. I'm not sure because it was said he got he stepped down on his own accord.

However, Leslie Frazier, Monaco, still doing some of the minority coaching symposium things that help, you know, basically help put owners in front of black coaches. He's still doing those things. So is it Leslie Fraser stepped down or Leslie Frey, or Sean McDermott didn't want Leslie Frazier calling his defense anymore? And he's like, I'm not about to fire you, right? I think that's, there's something to that is concerning. What's concerning is you're back in the fourth best defense from last year in the division.

The bills gave up under 18 points per game. The Jets gave up 18.6. Next to the Broncos, they were the most win total turnaround team. If they could just score 20 points, Rogers will fix that in a cinch. And the Patriots had a plus 17 point differential with a defensive coordinator, call and plays on offense. I mean, I know there's some dogs on D for Miami, but let's not. not sit here and act like again to the Dennis Allen Vic Fangio thinking here you really are feeling

like these coaches are making or breaking these teams and I still contest as a players league yeah now I I really do that's one of the things that I really do factor in heavily into my handicapping is who is this coach what does he good at how does how do the schemes match up and I just wonder if you know Buffalo they're deep defensive secondary has had, I mean, they lost over the safety. Their poirers gone, I believe. And then, you know, DeMar Hamlin made the team. But, like, one of the things that was underrated in the story about

Damar Hamlin is he's the third string safety. That's why it was a question whether he was going to make the team in the first place during his training camp when he was out there on the field against Cincinnati. And I contend Cincinnati, I think, would have won that game that Monday night. And I think we'd be looking at a different, we would have a different view of Buffalo if in fact they had gotten to the end of that game. I'm not saying they should have kept playing. I get why they canceled it.

But I think we'd have a different view of Buffalo had that game gone to his conclusion. We got a different view of a team that lost three games by a combined eight points. Look, I agree. The bills are third now. Does he not want to be there? I don't know. You have Stephen A. Smith. He doesn't want to be there.

But Stefan Diggs tweets, of course I want to be here. We saw this movie before with Stefan and Kirk Cousins. Stefan Diggs wants to win and it feels like maybe just maybe Buffalo may not think they can't. I mean, you lose. I'm looking at it. They lost an overtime game to Minnesota.

I remember that insane game with that ball in the one yard line going back and forth, back and forth. They showed it in quarterback. Great moment. You'll lose by a field goal and two points to the Jets and the Dolphins. I mean, I'm blown away, Martin.

This is a quarterback league. And Josh Allen is the third best quarterback in the league and he had a partially torn UCL. He's a unicorn. He's got almost Cam Newton athleticism and a Joe Flacco arm. And he's still in that age where he can go out bang bodies and recoup and recover. I mean, it's the third best quarterback in the league with the top two defense from last year. I just, I cannot.

I want to emotionally bet the Jets to win the division. I'm just, I'm shocked. You got the fence. Yeah, man. I'm on. Hey, you know what? I do. Jalen Ramsey getting hurt really did put a little damper my expectations a little bit

because I thought, okay, now he can lock down. He's not necessarily the same guy that he was. He was taking a lot of chances in Los Angeles. But he would be able to lock down some of this. But yeah, yeah, man, I like their front seven in Miami. And if two, it can stay upright. And then, you know what, realistically, if he can't, I think Mike White is probably like the 37th, 38th best quarterback in the league.

I think he can go in there and get you, get, I think he can go in there and at least, again, all he's got to do, all you got to do is get the ball to your playmakers in space. It's very much going to be like a Brock Party situation, except Tua went to Alabama and was, is a high draft pick. All you got to do is be John Morant, Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul.

It's not that hard. It's not that hard. Hey, absolute blast having my guy on. There will be more Martin and more Monica this football. and lemon pepper parlay on Omaha. Hey, real quick, I know you're wrapping up. I've got to ask you, who's one of the NFC East? Dallas Cowboys.

Okay, all right. We agree on one. We agree on one. I think the Cowboys have a great shot to make a run this year. I'm talking like, I know everybody talks about the NFC divisional round, and they always lose, but you know what they lose to? They lose to the 49ers. Let's keep it honest.

If I'm right, 49ers are in the wildcar situation. Dallas wins the division. I think this team has NFC championship potential, Dallas, with what probably will play out to be the best defense in the NFC. I'm actually, I can't believe we're agreeing

on our way to commercial here. I am complete lockstep with you. I've been on the Cowboys all off season. I got them to come out of the NFC as sick as that. I just wanted to make sure that the audience really knew that we are friends. Like we're not just, we are friends.

We are legitimate friends. So it's like, hey, every so off we do agree. We do agree. And there will be more disagreeing or agreeing. We'll definitely be chopping it up on the mic,

whether it's my pie, whether it's Martin and VJ Saturdays 5-day Pacific Fox Sports Radio. Make sure to check out my guy. Martin Weiss all over Twitter, IG does great work, great pipes, and unbelievable takes. My guy is a phenomenal guest on the show. We'll have you back, man.

And as always, we end with don't forget to hug your mothers. We'll see you next time. We're out of you. The volume.