The Herd with Colin Cowherd - NBA Finals Betting Update

Episode Date: June 11, 2025

The NBA Finals are knotted at one game apiece, with the Pacers shocking the Thunder with a Game 1 buzzer beater. The Thunder enacted their revenge in a Game 2 blowout, leaving Action Network hosts Cha...d Millman and Simon Hunter questioning how best to bet the series moving forward.  Today, back to discuss all things betting in the NBA Finals is the host of Action’s NBA betting podcast BUCKETS, the effervescent Matt Moore. Together the trio breaks down how they seee the rest of the NBA Finals playing out, what bets still hold value, and how to properly pronounce the word "subsequent." #Volume See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:01:02 It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was part of you. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis come in to you, he's like, you know I love you, dog.
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Starting point is 00:02:10 to the favorites, the podcast, part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. Today I'm joined as always by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional about her, Simon, Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? Dude, you know, I'm working on this book. And so I was in Costa Rica last week.
Starting point is 00:02:33 Spent 40 hours in Costa Rica. I was hanging out with a very... high stakes professional better, much like yourself. I could not get the game one of the NBA finals. And like I could see in the app, like it was a blowout, blowout, blowout. So I just like went to bed and then all of a sudden literally I turned off the lights because it's two hours earlier in Costa Rica. Turn off the lights.
Starting point is 00:03:04 So it was nine o'clock. And my phone started blowing up about game one and we'll, what Halliburton did in the game against the Thunder. We're going to talk to Matt Moore, who came on with us before the finals, obviously the host of buckets, did a great job breaking it down. We're now going to preview game three.
Starting point is 00:03:27 That first game was everything I wanted it to be. And I got a lot of thoughts on how it's going to play out the rest of the way. Well, it does pay to watch those games live and bet live. I literally did exactly what we're talking on the show. I bet the number on OKC. I think they were up 17 or 16 at one point through a very small hedge on the money line
Starting point is 00:03:48 and I did the same thing as you. I thought it was dead because I think they were still down by more than 10 had into the fourth and or maybe it was even, it might have been like five minutes left in the fourth. I think it was 15, like three minutes left, they were down 15. Whatever it was, I had the same thing as you.
Starting point is 00:04:01 I literally turned it off and I did the classic, you're not asleep, you're in bed and you're checking on your phone because you literally, you just want to see the money hit. And all of a sudden they start coming back and it was like just three after three is why I love the NBA right now where it's like these these teams if they get hot and hit these threes are all such good shooters everyone on the team
Starting point is 00:04:21 you can't really give up on it right so immediately pop back up caught that final minute of the game and yeah i feel like what we talked about exactly with mad happened which was you know they needed to get very lucky had the game be kind of tight in the fourth and make big shots and now we're once again, seeing history. We're like this, this team that no one believed in, won that game one with a ton of luck and a ton of skill, but it was the exact way they needed to, right? They were just outgunned in that game.
Starting point is 00:04:49 So it was really fun. And then I think you and my both saw game too. And it was back to, I think, whatever would expect it, right? OKC is a much better team. So it's a fun series. Going into it, I really had no, no real hope for, you know, what the Pacers could do. But that game one gave me a little bit of hope.
Starting point is 00:05:08 It's like, all right, we have to watch game three and four now because two, two, that's a real series if they can steal one of these games here. So I'm really loving what Gambay is doing with these small market teams, Chad. Well, I disagree. I think there's no hope. I'll explain. Matt Moore, welcome back in. Give us your game one, game two take before we get into where we think it's going. Yeah, incredible job by the Pacers to hang in there.
Starting point is 00:05:36 and you can kind of sense it. I love it when you can sense it in the building, even through the television that you're like, that you can tell the Thunder fans are like, why aren't we up more? Like, hey, they scored. It's 11. Why aren't they up by 20?
Starting point is 00:05:49 The Pacers, we had a really good discussion about this yesterday on buckets. If you create turnovers, but you don't score on them, that mitigates a lot of the advantage that OKC is able to create because their half-court offense is not stellar. It's good.
Starting point is 00:06:04 It's just not like elite level. And so they need these points off of turnovers. And what the Pacers have done in the first two games is they've been like, no, we're going to turn the ball over, but you're not scoring on them. So we turn the ball over and don't score. You don't score on the subsequent possession. And it's just zero zero little reset. Now, over the course of a series, it's probably not going to go well.
Starting point is 00:06:24 And that's something the indie's got to get better at. Hal Burton, I described it on the show as like the man carries his equipment in a wheelbarrow. Just like has to carry that an industrial, not one of the ones that you get at like, not like a Brinky Dink one you pick up at Walmart. You gotta get an industrial grade to carry around that man's equipment because it's insane what he's able to do in these clutch time situations. This is literally the best clutch
Starting point is 00:06:45 run we've ever seen, ever. Nobody's ever hit more clutch shots. Right. Can we just say did you say subsequent? Is that how you said the word? I did it again. I did it again. Brandi Anderson called me out on this. He was like, that's not how he say subsequent.
Starting point is 00:07:06 And I was like, oh. I always thought that it was, I'd always thought that it was one of those words that you could pronounce either way. And then I was like, no, I'll look it up, Brandon. It's not tomato, tomato, tomato. Subsequent. It's subsequent.
Starting point is 00:07:19 It's subsequent. All right. So my take on all this, game one to game two, is that we saw the real future. when Oklahoma City demolished the Pacers in game two and they didn't let them
Starting point is 00:07:42 come back. Like I tried to stay up. I wanted to be there for the end. I looked at and thought this is what it looks like without the miracle and I think we got a miracle Thunder and 5. I hear you. This is the problem.
Starting point is 00:08:01 O. Casey's 0 and 7 on the road ATS in these playoffs. Like, they are not great on the road against the spread. Now, they can still win this game, right? So they can still get to Thunder and 5. I'm hoping that you're right, because that's what I bet in originally was Thunder minus 2 and 1 half. And we're down to just Thunder and 5 to win that bet.
Starting point is 00:08:18 The issue is that I find a lot of the things from game 2 second half. So, like, here's one. They outscored them in the second half of that game. Oh, but there's garbage time. Take out the last two minutes. And it was 59-59. The second half of that game, Pacers had a 135 offensive rating. that's not thunder formula here.
Starting point is 00:08:36 Thunder shooters, Lou Dortch shoot 19% on the road in the playoffs. This Thunder team is a true to form role players, shoot better at home, shoot worse on the road squad. That building for game three is going to be ballistic. First finals game in 25 years. Basketball crazy state,
Starting point is 00:08:55 even though they've had one of the worst attendance rates in the NBA over the last decade, that's going to be absolutely a crazy environment. and it's a really big situation. I think it's probably close, but I do think that the Pacers are in a really good spot here, and especially with this being Thunder minus five and a half market, like I have a hard time getting to a spot where I want to bet OKC,
Starting point is 00:09:15 even to cover less than two possessions, given their history of how they've been on the road, why they haven't been as good on the road ATS, and how Indy man, the spot for Indy here, I think is really good. Well, right now, you mentioned the serious prices. The prices are the Thunder, plus 290 to win the series 4 to, plus 290 to win the series 4.3.
Starting point is 00:09:40 The Pacers numbers are obviously higher. We're talking much bigger numbers, but plus 1,600 to win the series 4 to 1. It's interesting to me you talk about the Pacers as a home team in a basketball mad state. the Pacers have never mattered in Indiana. You know, they had Reggie Miller, kind of interesting when they were playing the Knicks, they made that finals, but they've never been a team anyone in Indiana talks about.
Starting point is 00:10:17 And they've always had a magnificent stadium. That fieldhouse is a great place to watch a game. This team feels like it has something a little bit different that is sustainable, that has energy, that has a personality, that it has, a style of play that people can latch on to. It's not just a sort of, for lack of a better term, NFC South or AFC South team, Matt Moore.
Starting point is 00:10:45 Do you sense that amongst the NBA denizens right now? I was just about to say this is an AFC South ass take from you, Chad, the perennial South hater of professional sports. You know, I think those crowds in the mid-90s, I haven't checked the attendance data, but I think they were really great. I think they believed him in the mid-2000s with the Artes team with Jermaine O'Neill before the brawl, right, the malice. I think that Indiana, because they've got it, one of the problems is when you've got a history of winning in a certain sport,
Starting point is 00:11:14 like Indiana's basketball program has, then you've got a different standard for success. And Denver's like this, I think, with football, where because the college sports have never really been relevant on any sort of significant scale, because they haven't won at a significant level, it really is compared to. the Broncos. Like Broncos have all these championships and you win and we'll pay attention to you. That's how, you know, pro basketball was too. It was we're not going to pay attention to the nuggets until they win. Then they won and now the crowd's really good. And that's true for most places, but these true small markets, I think you're right that there's a difference between like OKC. OKC when they have bad teams, their crowd's still going to be great. Portland, when they have
Starting point is 00:11:52 bad teams, the crowd's still great. Indiana though, I think does sense that there's something different about this team. This is maybe the most fun run that we've seen in NBA playoff history. Like I have hard time thinking back to a team that was more fun than this one when you count the way that they play, the comebacks, and all the ways that they've been able to do this. I think it does add up to something where, and it doesn't seem like the window's closing. It's not a one year deal because you would have thought that last year. They made the conference finals. Okay, they'll come back to Earth a little bit. And instead, they got better and made the finals this year. And even if it did take a certain series of events, it still shows that they're good enough to deliver when these games get
Starting point is 00:12:30 tight and that they're made for this. And I think that's really important in the enthusiasm, I think, that is building around this Pacer squad. So what are we doing now? Are we 4-1? Are we 4-2? What is your take on how this plays out? Yeah, I bet Pacers, or I bet Thunder 4-2 yesterday plus 290. I still make the Thunder like I'll do in this series. Series script to me feels, okay, they stole the one that instantly takes the ability for the 4-1 to have, it's going to be really difficult. I just do not have a lot of faith in OKC, given how I've seen them up close and personal on the road in these playoffs to take both of them. One of them will be close enough to where it's at least a coin flip. I do not think that Indies getting both at home. I do not
Starting point is 00:13:15 think the Thunder are getting both at home. I'm going to play Pacers Moneyline game one. If it loses, I'll be back on them in game two. I think whoever loses game two is going to be a great spot to play in game four. Thunder are going to win game five by by margin. I'll be on all. all over the place for Thunder game 5, regardless of series script. Unless there's an injury or a Black Swan event, if Thunder win game 3, I'm still on Thunder in game 5 by probably 20 or more. If they win game 4, I'm on them in Thunder game 5 by 20 or more. Pacers game 6 is going to be a tough one.
Starting point is 00:13:49 This isn't the same as I think the Denver spot. I think that the OKC might be in a better position to finish it on the road in game 6 than they were versus Denver in that series. You're going to see, I think, a lot of adjustments. one of the things I'm really curious about is how many adjustments does Carlisle throw at them in this game in game three? Because he's kept the zone very close to the vest. They made some offensive adjustments,
Starting point is 00:14:11 but they haven't done a lot. Carlisle's script in game two was, hey, let's try and win, but we're not going to show him the cards here. I'm not playing him until I have to. We got the one I needed to be able to stretch this out. So the question is like, do you rely on momentum, home crowd, better shooting in game three,
Starting point is 00:14:29 or do you feel like you need to pull out the tricks, the bells and whistles to get game three? Because you use them in game three, now they're on the table for OKC to adjust to in game four. Your ideal would be use momentum, energy, effort, home crowd shooting, get game three, then throw the kitchen sink at them in game four. That's like the script for indie,
Starting point is 00:14:47 but I still don't think that's going to be good enough for them to get both. I still think that Thunder and Six is our most likely outcome here after they stole game one. Are we missing an opportunity here? Like this is what we live for. This team, we just talked about. they've done something this Pacers team that's never been done before. Like they are incredibly clutch.
Starting point is 00:15:04 I feel like if this was another sport, me and you would have a better view on it. With basketball, we're just so used to the favorites always coming through, right? The better teams with the better player usually win, but this is the rare opportunity it feels like Chad. This isn't Golden State or those LeBron teams. This is a very young team, first time doing it.
Starting point is 00:15:25 You know, they don't have a Joker on this team. I know, you know, we can say they have the MVP of the league, Yes, we know that, but it's, it just feels different. We're like the Pacers, I was looking for a reason I take them. That game one was so exactly what I was looking forward. It's like they know they're not better. They know they don't have the guys that this OKC team does. But they have this unique ability to believe them.
Starting point is 00:15:48 The J.R. Smith, they think they're all the best shooters in the world and they really believe it. Whether they are, they aren't. And I love it. We're like that confidence in that final two, three minutes. Like Matt said, you could feel it through the TV, right? The Thunder got so tight. And they didn't have a Kobe, a Steph Curry, someone to bail them out,
Starting point is 00:16:05 take a shot to get two points. And that's what, like, we're talking here is that if they steal another one here, if they do steal game three, that pressure on OKC in game four, I mean, I can't even imagine it. I can't imagine them sitting there with that type of pressure where,
Starting point is 00:16:22 you know, they're down now, 2-1, on the road, an environment that match has told us they've struggled on the road, Chad. So I don't know, it feels like we're overlooking it. Are we missing in it here? Should we be taking the Pacers? Is this, are we overlooking or is what we just talked about?
Starting point is 00:16:37 Like, game two, is that what this series is? Like, is OKC really that much better? Pacer simply got lucky in game one. It was a bit of a fluke. So I don't know what they do in this game one. Game three here. I'm tempted to just bet Pacer's money line. It feels like a nice spot for them to bounce back.
Starting point is 00:16:55 And I feel like another thing Matt talked about, that second half in that game two, that's the Pacers team I expect to see, which is a very, very smart with the ball, high-flying offense that scores bucket. So I don't know. It feels interesting. We're already leaving them for dead here where it's like,
Starting point is 00:17:11 I don't know. This feels like a 7-6 type of series. So I'm going to take that 4-2 bet with OKC with you, Matt, but I'm also going to throw a 4-3 bet on the Pacers at, you know, last time I checked it was crazy guys. It might have been 10 to 1. So it might have come down, but still, I mean, we're talking 10-to-1 here on Pacers.
Starting point is 00:17:28 So I'm with you guys. I'm trying to play the serious price. And it does feel like a 4-2 O KC, but I see there's a window. I think Matt Moore sees what I'm seeing here. There's a window for a 4-3 Pacers game seven win. It just, we're so due. When's the last one we had, Matt Moore? Was it Mavericks over the heat?
Starting point is 00:17:48 Was that the last big ups that we had? Cabs, 2016 had to be, that was the big one. Warriors was technically won in 2022. You guys were dead on in that series. I came on after talking to Brandon Anderson was like, it's Celtics, they're way better. They're going to win this series. And you both were like,
Starting point is 00:18:05 it's Steph Curry and the Warriors, man. What are you doing? And you were absolutely right on that one. But that was the same thing. The first time Celtics have really gotten there. And the lights were very bright. That's just my biggest pause. Like there's just something about that Pacer's team.
Starting point is 00:18:18 They seem like even though they're not that much more of a veteran team, they just feel like they have a different type of confidence when it's tight at the end of these games than this Thunder team does. So I'm just, I'm trying to find a little opening, chat. This is what professional and better to do. We see cracks. We feel like history repeats itself.
Starting point is 00:18:34 And I don't know. The way this series has already gone started, it's like, OKC has opened the door for the spacers team. If it was 2-0, I'd have a totally different tune here. They would have a ton of confidence heading to this game against the spacers team. But the fact that it's 1-1, I don't know. It feels like we're overlooking the spacers team where it's like, these are the exact type of dogs we love to bet, Chad.
Starting point is 00:18:55 So I'm just, I'm just, it's interesting to see. how much you're just, fuck these guys, OK, C, I'm on it. That's the team I want to back. So I'm shocked by your position. I guess I'm just, I'm a little bit swayed by looking at this as, and look, I was looking at this the same way when the Celtics played the Knicks and I was dead wrong,
Starting point is 00:19:16 which was if not for the Celtics missing two or three, three-pointers in games one and game one and game two, then they're up three-oh in that. series and we're not talking about the Knicks as cardiac kids and finding ways to come back from 20 points down in multiple games because the Celtics were clearly the better team. So the Thunder are clearly the better team. They've got more talent. They've got more aggressive, longer players on defense.
Starting point is 00:19:51 I love the Pacers. We've been saying all postseason, the Pacers' floor is so high because the basketball IQ for that team is so, so high. Nemhard, knee Smith, even Obitopin when he comes in, like, is playing above and beyond, I think what anyone thought he'd be playing at. McConnell, you know, obviously Halliburton, like, they're all great. But OKC has players that are equally great and IQ perspective and then better from a talent perspective. Everyone they're bringing off the bench is better than who the Pacers are bringing off the bench.
Starting point is 00:20:31 And so I'm just thinking, okay, the Thunder had one collapse in a game in which they're not used to playing in a high pressure situation like that in game one of the finals. And that's all the Pacers do. So it played to their strength. Matt Moore, would you call that a collapse or did they simply get outplayed by the Pacers end of that game? That's a good question. Because they had shots. It didn't feel like a collapse where it's like, you know, they just had shots. And then they just got tight.
Starting point is 00:20:57 Like, OKC just could not hit a shot. Even their free throws. It wasn't like the Knicks game won was a collapse, right? Yes. This felt more like the Pacers kept it just within range. And then they did absolutely tighten up. Like Jalen Williams wide open three pointer off of Shea split in the double miss. She's got that pull.
Starting point is 00:21:15 Now, she I think just missed a shot. Like I think Shay can, she probably hit that shot, you know, eight out of ten times on that mid range pull up. Like his, that pull up from him is money. But I do think. this is one of the things I talked about this is the OKC advantage in the series is
Starting point is 00:21:30 like Chad talked about, they're better, but they're better because they're so dominant in the margins. And what Indy's done in this series, and it actually, the same thing is true for game one and game two. OKC's not killing them in the margins. OKC killed them in game two and shot variants. Pacer shot 14 to 40 from three. They're still getting up 43-pointers
Starting point is 00:21:51 against OKC. And in game two, with the whole season, on the line for O'KC. Indiana missed shots, good contests, good defense, but missed a ton of threes, missed good opportunities, and OKC on the other hand,
Starting point is 00:22:08 got 20 points from Alex Caruso. Like, that's a very tough thing for them to duplicate, especially on the road. This is where it gets interesting because I agree with Chad. Like, they are better. And it's about the margin and whether Inde can shrink that margin from the power rating standpoint
Starting point is 00:22:24 to where it's within range. because once it gets within range, now this is about can you make shots. And that's Indy. Like, Indy's the better shooting team. They've been the better shooting team in the regular season, in the playoffs, in half court, and in the series. Like, they are a better shooting team, but they got to get it within range for them to be able to do that.
Starting point is 00:22:42 And the question's going to be, can Carlisle and the Holmes environment open it up? Because I will say, it's hard to blow out OKC. If you win, you win close. But OKC has not been able to blow teams out on the road. which is where they're comfortable. That's where they're comfortable. They can win these close games. They won game four in Denver.
Starting point is 00:23:01 Close environment really proves something. They have learned from this. This isn't like a team where it's like, yeah, I don't know, man, if it gets tight, I think they're going to, like the Celtics, I think we're much more like that the last couple of years. And they won the title last year
Starting point is 00:23:12 because nobody could threaten them. OK, see, it's like, they got a chance, but once it gets into variance mode, because of the number, there's a lot of value on Indiana. It's just like, can they hang on to be in that position for the shot variance to come through for them?
Starting point is 00:23:25 Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, Nick? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it.
Starting point is 00:23:38 We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And we were thinking I'm originally calling it.
Starting point is 00:23:55 one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast,
Starting point is 00:24:08 where people could call in and say, Hey Jonas. And then I broke down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas
Starting point is 00:24:18 on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
Starting point is 00:24:37 This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand because I competed there myself.
Starting point is 00:25:03 I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on clay. Jenchian win. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lerabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. and I actually can win on any surface.
Starting point is 00:25:28 Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHart Women's Sports. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.
Starting point is 00:25:51 Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. You mentioned Carlisle earlier in the show. He's like, yeah, we knew we weren't going to win that game.
Starting point is 00:26:23 And I feel like that happens more often in the NBA than any other sport. They know going in. Like, they're going to compete. But do you think there is actually something the players pull back, the coaches change strategy? Like, what does that mean? They know they're not going to win the game. And why wouldn't they try to win the game? So every series has got a rhythm and flow to it.
Starting point is 00:26:45 Rick's been in so many of these to understand it. Now, what's been amazing is a lot of the ways to kind of see how much are they adjusting. And what you do is you look at things like, have they changed their matchups? Have they changed their rotation? did they tighten the rotation? Is one guy completely out? Do they shift this around? How much have they shifted their game plan going in from the previous game into this one?
Starting point is 00:27:04 And what's been fascinating is, like, Zach Lowe said this on Simmons podcast, and I completely agree with it. Like, if you talk to indie folks, it's the same thing. They, like, they game plan for the series to go long, to have that kind of rhythm and flow. And great coaches know you never want to be the first one to adjust, and you want to hang on to those adjustments as long as possible. Because once you play that card, That's it.
Starting point is 00:27:26 You can't replay it because now they've seen it. They've scripted it. They've got the counters built in for it. You have to save them. And so I think the thing in game two is they've stolen a lot of these games. They stole game two versus the Knicks in Cleveland without making major adjustments. And that got them to be able to win those series short versus having to go seven, even when they didn't have home court advantage.
Starting point is 00:27:48 Like that's the real difference here. Like even when they went six versus the Knicks, it's mostly because Knicks had that game five at home. So with Carlisle, I think you go in and you say, look, we're going to compete. These are the things we want to clean up. But we're not going to make these changes that are going to inherently screw with them. Because you need the possessions where they're trying to figure them out and adjust for it to be late enough in the game or in the series for it to matter in turning that result your way. Because once you play it, that's it. Most adjustments are gone by six and seven.
Starting point is 00:28:21 Like you're out of adjustments. It's just who makes shots. and so with Carlisle, he's going to hold back on some of that to be able to make sure he plays it the right time. I don't know if that comes in game three or game four.
Starting point is 00:28:34 You can look at it and say, hey, we can't lose game three. Then they've retaken home court. They're going to, you know, and we're now forced into having to win multiple games on the road. Instead, do you save it for game three or game four? That to me is a question.
Starting point is 00:28:49 See, that's Simon, why I'm hesitant to go. all in on OKC. As good as their coach is, Mark Degnell is a really good coach. Carlisle, I mean, he's such a wily veteran. He's obviously won a title. He's now taking another team to the finals. He's a brilliant, not just basketball coach.
Starting point is 00:29:12 He's a brilliant NBA tactician. And so if Carlisle sees something that makes him think, all right, this is going to be a long series, and I'm willing to sacrifice tactical decisions in game two because I'm going to need them in, say, game four or game five, that makes me a little bit more inclined to at least think about a serious price that is six or seven games. I'm telling you're all these little things you love about this patient.
Starting point is 00:29:41 That's why I was shocking you came on here. I was like, this feels like the exact type of team that Chad would be suckered into betting the type of dog where it's like... I don't want to be a sucker. Well, I am. I'm gonna be one of those people. I bet them four to three. It's like it would be hilarious if the Patriots do win four two now.
Starting point is 00:29:56 I lose both bets. But everything about it, I just was just like, oh my God, the Patriots team, even in that blow, lost. That's what gave me confidence that game two. It's just like, there's no quit in that team. There was no woe was me. It was a still belief of we can get back in this game. And I'm like, okay, okay, X's going to feel that up their ass the entire series.
Starting point is 00:30:16 Where even when they're, anytime they have any type of lead, they're going to know there's no quit in that other team. And even like look at our notes right here, the fact that the sports books already have SGA and minus 550 for finals MVP, man, more. Is that not the most disrespectful thing you've ever seen? If I was a Pacers,
Starting point is 00:30:35 that would be on my bulletin board. It's one one. What are those odds by the sports books right now? Is he really been that dominant in this series and do that much respect from the books? Minus 550, Finals MVP. That's crazy. Yeah, I mean, it's also reflective.
Starting point is 00:30:48 of like, there's a minus 500 as well in the market, just reflective of basically it's the series price because nobody else is going to be able to catch him. I've always won a bet Jalen Williams in these spots because of his skill set, but Shea's been able to kind of get there and he's going to win, if they win this series, Shea's going to win it because nobody else is really going to have a case for it.
Starting point is 00:31:08 If Shea doesn't play well, they're not going to win. Like, there's just not, they will not have enough offense if Shea Gillish Alexander does not play well. Even if they win a bunch of defensive, or if they're in a bunch of defensive games. Is there an Iguodala here? Yeah, you know, Caruso is like an interesting one after having 20 in game two, right? Like that's a very good, like that's a fun long shot.
Starting point is 00:31:27 But you have to think about like what are the chances of them being able to win that many games against this Pacer's offense? Because the idea is like, well, OKC is better suited for a defensive slug fest because they're the better defensive team. If it's a defensive slug fest, again, you're into one or two shots can win you the game. Do you want OKC shooters or do you want Indiana's? Because I want Indiana's. And that's where I think it gets into. I think Pascal Seacom is the one that's actually like the really badly priced in the market. Because when Seacom has 20 or more points, the Pacers are seven and one straight up in ATS in the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:31:59 When he has, when he has good games, they win. So like, spoiler, I'm going to be on Seacom props for buckets in game three, which I'm doing after the show. So that's a look there. Well, look, when he has 20 or more points, it also means Halliburton is getting the ball out of his hands quickly and getting them into their offense quickly and finding mismatch so Halliburton can post so Seacom can post someone up and hit that mid-range jumper that he's so good at hitting. One of my favorite things in NBA finals every year is when a guy starts to shine and gets his flowers a little bit. And for me, that player has been Aaron Neesmith. Like his defense against Brunson, the way he is so thoughtful in moving his.
Starting point is 00:32:48 body and getting into position, his ability to shoot the ball. Like, he has become a brilliant player. Like being in New England, remembering the Celtics drafting him and him riding the pine. And then he disappeared to India. And I'm like, oh, that's such a bummer. Like, I liked his story. And I was rooting for the kid. He's turned into a straight man playing for the Pacers.
Starting point is 00:33:12 I love this guy. Love him. Talk about his development. He's phenomenal. I talked to him at Summer League after his rookie. season. And you could just tell, like, he had the right mindset of what it was he was going to work on and how much he was going to focus. And he's had, he had like two great runs at Summer League to the point where I was like, do you guys, like, do you guys realize like how good Aaron Neesmith is going to be going to be. And then like the Celtics just didn't play him for a team that played a lot of guys. And he gets this opportunity in Indiana. And he is the prototypical wing that you want. You want guys with size, physicality, length to be able to contest who can get over screens and can knock down the three. Neesmith's been phenomenal for them. Like, he's been a great rebounder for them. He's been great. steals he's their best on ball defender coming over those screens he's the reason why they were able to beat the nix he is the reason that they beat the new york nix he's number one a on my list for
Starting point is 00:33:59 why they got past him his play in that series was absolutely tremendous and it's like a good reminder of the some guys don't pop immediately some guys don't walk into training camp and you're like oh that guy's going to be awesome every single game even if he's not a superstar like that guy's going to be great some guys it takes some time but if you're got if you have the skill set and you can build on it and you're patient. And this Pacers team is such a great example of see a vision with guys, of seeing what they could be rather than what they can't be. And that, to me, has been like the lesson of their team build in getting to the finals.
Starting point is 00:34:33 All right. Then I'm starting to feel more comfortable about at least Betten OKC and 6 or the Pacers in 7. Like the way you've described the Pacers and their intangibles, how could I not? want to root for this team. And like, look, I'll tell you, I feel better about OKC and six than seven.
Starting point is 00:34:55 If this gets to seven, that is, they're going to, they've kept saying, like, well, we've faced adversity. We were down to one on the road versus Denver.
Starting point is 00:35:04 And I'm like, yeah, well, Denver wasn't good. Like, I've covered that team. They were not good. And to Simon's point, if this gets to seven,
Starting point is 00:35:11 I am terrified for OKC. Because like, house money through the roof for the Indiana Pacers. You made Game 7 versus the 68 win Thunder. They went on the road last year and won a Game 7 in Madison Square Garden. Nobody thought they could win. This team is like the perfect squad to steal a game 7 on the road. So I feel way better about OKC and 6 than I do about OKC and 7 if it gets to that point.
Starting point is 00:35:36 All right. And that's what we're doing, Simon. We're going to 6 and the 7. We're doing 6 and 7. I like Pacers in 7. I like Thunder and 6. I love it. All right.
Starting point is 00:35:47 Matt Moore, host of buckets. Thanks for coming on the show. Game 3 is at 8.30 Eastern Wednesday in Indianapolis. The current line, Indie plus five and a half, total 228 and a half. Simon and I will return with our next episode of favorites. Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page. Download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars.
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