The Herd with Colin Cowherd - NFL Best Bets Divisional Round

Episode Date: January 16, 2025

The final NFL weekend of multi-day action has arrived, with two spine-tingling games set for both Saturday and Sunday. Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are here to break each game down, and hand out their final picks, including their Big Balls Bet of the Week, presented by Tommy John. They dive into a round of Sharp Calls from professional bettors, they size up the chances of a Washington upset over Detroit, and they get down and dirty handicapping a freezing cold Orchard Park Sunday evening affair. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smygle and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I'm Joey Dardano, and on my new podcast, Hope From a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to me.

This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from a Hypocrite Wednesdays on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. This is Saigon, the story of my family and of the country that shaped us. From IHeart Podcasts, Saigon. You don't think I'm serious about a free Vietnam? One city, a divided country, and the war that tore America apart. This is for Vietnam. They're pouring patril all over here. Freedom for Vietnam!

There's a fire coming to this country and it's going to burn out everything. Listen to Saigon on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to the favorites of the podcast presented by Bet365. We are a part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I'm live from my Tommy John Home Studio. And I'm joined. And I'm joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional

better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? Optimistic, confident, clear-eyed. My heart is full. we cannot lose my brother we can not lose that's how I feel how do you feel this is my favorite time of year it's like you got one foot into you know the best football of the year and the other foot is offseason mode already all the drama all the

conversation and I just love this time of year where it's like even if your team's a loser and you're out there's still drama still something to care about with your team because there's all the coaching change everything like that on the flip side we talk about this is the best week in a football right this is our last weekend of at least four games on Saturday. We had two on Saturday, two Sunday. And I try to enjoy it because I know, and you know, it's almost over, baby. This is almost the end.

So I try to enjoy it. It's my last weekend of telling my wife, I have to work on Saturday night. So I know I cannot go out to dinner with XYZ couple because I have to work on Saturday night. Today is our NFL divisional best bets episode. As we did last week, we will not only be reviewing the sides for this weekend's games. We are adding any other bets we like as well. That will hopefully give folks more to look for, root for, think about this weekend. We will also be including those bets as options for our foxhole, our Tommy John, big balls,

bet of the week. We will of course discuss Simon's biggest bets, play scoch roulette, all that jazz. Sunday night. We normally do our shows on Sunday night around 7.30 because the Bill's Ravens game starts at 6.30.

We are going to go live after that game. It's going to be a late night for me. I'm going to need to have an afternoon espresso to be able to do that show. We're going to go after the Ravens and the Bills game finishes.

And that should be great, because we're going to have a lot of stuff tied to that game as you're about to find out. Plus, you know, Matt Mitchell lives and dies with the Buffalo Bills. So it could be super exciting to have to make him record a podcast one way or the other. This sucks and it's horseshit,

but I'm too polite to say anything because I'm a class act. Betza rolling in, lines are moving. Decisions need to be made as a volume podcast boss. Colin Cahort likes to say, There's a sea of money out there. Yeah, I mean, don't get me wrong. I'm going to be generationally wealthy. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365,

and now new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary a bet, at 365, must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky.

Gambling problem called 1,800 gambler, or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right, as always, on Thursdays during the season, we like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. We are very influential. Lines move based on our conversations. The pros feel compelled to check in and tell us what they're thinking. Simon, let's do.

Sherp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you doing? Yeah, pretty interesting week, obviously, because there's only four games, so there's going to be a lot of, you know, back and forth on guys where they're on different sides. And obviously, the most contentious, you know, argumentative.

back and forth game Ravens bills. So there's no doubt. Got a ton of pushback on that one. Push back on you. Push back on you liking the bills. Yeah. Guys are just like us where they dive in the numbers and they see that basically when you boil down to it,

every trend, just about every number on the field is going to back this Ravens team for a good reason. Like we already talked about and we're going to talk about some more. You know, that was definitely the main call I got about you think they think I'm doing too much emotion here not going with the numbers not just the numbers and yeah that's something again we'll talk about I don't want to give too much away but

yeah I just thought that was interesting that I thought that was going to be a more public side the Ravens but there are some really smart professional money on that side but you saw there's just as much smart money on the bill's side keeping this number where it's at right like a couple offshore books touched two immediately took heavy money went right back to on a one and a half. And we've seen here, I don't know if you've seen in Connecticut, but New Jersey, no book has touched two on the bills. Every book has been one and a half. In fact, and let's, let's save that because it's, that is the end of the show. It's the marquee game. It's at one at most books. So it's come down from the one and a half. Like the money is

coming back on the bills. So that is outstanding. Well, I just thought it was interesting conversation with guys just because I did think it would be a pros versus Joe's type of game and it's like no this Ravens team and you do dive into the numbers you do look at the matchup there are guys who are just like no I'm trusting the trends here trust a little more in this night game but yeah can't wait to break that one down even more a game mean you love we already knew the professionals on the other side of it this Detroit oh I don't know if Chad loves it but I love the commanders Detroit Lions this is another professional side a lot of the pros love the lines but there's a decent amount of us that are crazy, crazy,

about this Washington team and throwing money on the Washington money line. They're going to pull off the upset. I just, I can't get over how they match up with this team and the fact that, yes, the Lions are going to be able to maybe make them one-sided, take away the run option. That's what I honestly want. I want Janie Daniels to have the ball on his hands at all the times. I just think this is the type of game that we could finally see him break off 50 to 60 runs

in this game where it's going to be him picking up a ton of yards with his own leg. So that was another game that was really interesting to me that, you know, I couldn't believe there's pros out there still taking the nine and a half on this Lions team. And it is just they love this team. They respect this offense. And they think, which most people I think professionally think that the injuries to this defense have been overrated a little bit.

I just think they've been lucky with their competition. Now they're about to face a legit offense. And we've seen when they played legit offenses, they move the ball against them and this defense. So that's another one, obviously, that's split. I don't know where you're at with your eagles love. I'm holding strong with it. I mean, I might have talked to a handful of pros that are like, well, I like the Rams, but I like them at six and a half and now I'm not going to bet it.

So this to me seems like the very public professional side with the pros and the public are lining up on this Eagles team. And the more info we get on the weather, the more it makes sense to me that it's becoming a really pro public side with this eagle. Eagles team because everyone knows that the LA is a dome team now they're coming out coming out east on a short week so that was definitely a game I thought we would get pushback on basically nunchet we're basically in line with a lot of professionals on this Eagle side and yeah for a game that not that it's left for you dead but

it just seems like no one really cares about it it's it feels like you know pros are betting Houston Texans here and it's really just about we always talk about the the models are gonna favor Houston here because it's such a a big number and it's Mahomes as a big favorite which historically does not cover but it's not like guys banging the table for this Houston team I think everyone's just scared you know going against the Chiefs in the playoffs

so like we said I think most guys agree with it this is a regular season of course you would bet Houston here this is a great number this is a nice spot especially with the way their defense matches up they're great to stop in the run that's we know the Chiefs that's what they want to do here but yeah no one no one planting their flag on this Houston team

So that might be the one blind spot for me this week is I am really not really given any respect to Houston at all. I think this is such a chief spot. And the fact that no professionals are really digging their feet in on this Houston side makes me even more confident where it's like, no, this does feel like the game where we see it time and time again, right, the one seed tends to roll the four seed or the five seed, whoever gets into the come play this matchup. I don't really feel that way of Detroit with the chiefs here like we talked about.

Now the chiefs are fully healthy while arrested. This does feel like a spot the chiefs are going to roll. Yeah, pretty interesting. The only pushback we had were on sides. We talked totals. I heard nothing about our love for the total. Basically, everyone I talked to loves the unders as well this week. Obviously, we're on the highest over. I don't know if you've come around on that one as well, Chad, but no guys were calling up saying, you're a psycho for betting this over of the 55. None of that. You guys were like, no, I see it.

Like, this could easily be a shootout. And Evan had an amazing trend, basically, in his article about these high totals outdoors, we pick the under. indoors, that's when they do go over. So, yeah, it's nice to see the trends back up, my love for this over, because I do think you're getting still a point and a half of value here on this total for this Lions and Commanders game. All right, let's get into it.

That first one up, the Chiefs and the Texans, that line is settled in at eight and a half since we last spoke. We are in the Foxhole on the Chiefs. I haven't bet the side on this game. I definitely lean chiefs. I did bet the teaser. I did bet the chiefs. I moved it down to two and a half and I moved the bills up to seven and a half. So you can see it in the app. I've got a teaser on the bills at minus two and a half. Bills plus seven and a half chiefs minus two and a half. And like,

I so want to bet the chiefs here. I'm not buying the Texans. I'm not buying that they're all a sudden fixed. I know their defense is good. What's kept me from going all in has been a couple of trends of favorites with Mahomes as more than seven, right? Obviously, we've talked about this forever in his career, 41% against the spread as a favorite of more than seven. 05 and 1 this season as a spread of more than 7. Since 2020, 36% as a 7 plus point favorite, worst mark of any QB in the NFL. However, it's going to be cold 20 degrees.

Dome teams playing outside fair poorly. And then this is where, like, I want your take on this because the trends get really interesting, right? So Mahomes, overall as a seven point favorite, as I said, 22, 32, and 3. As a seven point favorite, when the weather is under 40 degrees, 10, 6, and 1. So what that says to me is just shy of 50% of his covers as a. seven point favorite, come when the weather is below 40 degrees. Obviously, we've been tracking these things for four or five days now.

I've been trying to find, like, the numbers that back up my suspicion. And when we get this deluge of data, which we get, this to me feels like either I'm looking for confirmation bias or it's confirming my bias in the way that I wanted to. Does that make sense? Like, that's the number I was looking for to make me feel better about betting the Chiefs. It feels like it threads the needle sort of the bend diagram of these things.

Yeah, and a little bit about what you just talked about that. We were trying to, like you just said, we're trying to find reasons to back the Chiefs, not reasons to fade them here. So that's definitely an issue going into this one. I agree with you on that where it's like, I'm trying to be open mind here, but I know that in my gut and my heart,

I want to be on this Chief's team. And I think it's what you just talked about there. It's like we've already been here before. We know this exact scenario. And like we said, regular season, we rode that streak. We faded Mahomes every time he was a big favorite best this year. And I didn't realize he was 05 and 1. That's pretty shocking, Evan.

So, yeah, that's pretty telling that, you know, it's just, it's different, right? The public overreacts, overrates, Mahomes, during the regular season. That was without all of his weapons, too, right? That was without all the guys we've talked about coming back to this point. And yeah, to me, we do respect how great this Houston's defense is and what they've done this season. But this is the type of scenario where it's like you have to factor in who they have played, right? Who is in their division? How some of their games have gone.

When you go back and look at certain games they have, like, you know, I think back to that Green Bay game they played, right? When that was outdoors, not even that cold, right? But their defense couldn't stop the Green Bay offense. Like there's a couple of things like that where, yes, in the right setting, the right environment, their defense is really dominant. But in a setting like this, I just can't see it. I know that the strength of Houston right now is the run defense. Like that is their absolute strength.

It's going to be a strength on strength because that's what the chiefs do. Like second half, they just lean into that run game. And yeah, this Houston team, I think they're just going to wilt against that type of front. And even if they do try to stack the box and take away the run, Mahomes is going to kill you. The guy has seen it all. This is the exact moment he lives for. This is Andy Reid scheming up those perfect play calls in this exact scenario. So yeah, my confidence, just like you, is not wavered.

Just a great spot, like you said, if you're scared off by this big number, it's the perfect number to tease. Like they're giving you the tease here. Like taking it down to two and a half. If you don't like the bills, throw the Eagles in there. You're taking the Eagles basically down just to win outright. That's going to be a nice spot to be in. So I'm right there with you.

I'm not scared off by this number. You know, the total obviously, we talked about it. That's the only fear for me is we might have missed the key number and the value. Yeah, I think it's too low. No, I wouldn't play the total at the number it's at now. It was higher a few days ago. I think you missed it. It's under 42 now.

I would still play because I do think it's going to keep coming down, chat, because we just talk about the weather. Like, if this is going to be freezing cold and even a little bit of chance of snow, I could see the public finally joining us on the under. Because right now, the public right now is still in the over. because they're viewing it the same way. It's like, it's the lowest total that you can get with Mahomes. And, you know, CJ has big plays.

That's what CJ does. He makes big plays that can ruin totals like this for going over. So I get why the early money right now from the public is on the over. I think it's being closer. And it's going to be all weather talk. We're about to get into it. It's, this is going to be a week dictated by the weather in many ways. And this feels a good type of game in the exact same way where it's like, you know,

when people do wake up Saturday morning, they see that it's going to be, say 10 degrees or 15 degrees that kick off with a chance of snow in this matchup, I just think it's going to become pouring in on the under. So I still don't hate it if you want to take it under a 41 and a half. I put it out there. Like I have this at 41. There's only a half point of value here. It's not crazy amount of value that I'm making you guys run to the window to bet this right now.

But to me, there still is value on it. But I get where chat's coming from. It's like if you feel like you missed it, you could roll the dice and hope for an opening drive touchdown. And then you take it live, take the under live. So that's always a way you can play. these type of games. I love doing that and

we've talked about that a lot this season. You know, the other day, I forget which game it, I think it was the Broncos bills after that first touchdown, the total got up to 53.

And it was originally, it closed at like, I think, 47 and a half. 47 and a half. 48. And so you were all of a sudden getting five more points. And we see this all the time,

especially with these island games, for lack of a better term, where there's nobody else, where everyone's watching these one game, this one game, primetime games, Thursday night, Monday night, Sunday night. When there is a touchdown on the first drive or early on in the game, the total spikes and every single time you see like these teams settle in, even if there's a touchdown or a score right after. We saw it with Buffalo in Denver this past weekend. Like, it immediately, you can get a really high number live.

So I think that's a good idea. I just think there's so many options on this game. Why do you want to waste it on a number that you don't feel that confident about? I do want to pull in when I was listening to the Action Network pod, I listened to Stucky and Raybom. Raybond went all in or like Dalton Schultz over three and a half receptions a lot. If you're afraid to play the Chiefs because you don't like the number, that's a good way to play the Chiefs without having to play the number. because the one thing the chiefs aren't great at is defending the middle of the field.

They focus so much on the outside receivers and tight ends historically have a lot of success against the chiefs. And if you expect the chiefs to be winning, the Texans are going to have to be throwing the ball and Dalton Schultz will likely have a lot of opportunities to make some receptions. I don't know if you have a strong feeling on that.

I love it. I mean, there's tons of angles you can play on this game. Again, we focus mainly here on just totals and sides, And, you know, second half unders under Andy Reid in Mahomes, it's a cash cow. Like, I love betting the second half underers. And we talk about all the time. It's because they basically just ball control, maybe give the other team two to three possessions total in the second half because they just hold on to it, run it down the throat and just

basically take the wind out of the sales. And we've seen it time and time again, air our head unders. Like, that's another reason to love this under. It's just a great, great spot to play because public use perceives as chiefs, the highest current offense where that's just not who they've been these last couple years. So that's another sneaky play. If it's, you know, say it is a fluky first half, right? It's 2114 chiefs or 2014 chiefs.

You have to play that second half under. It's a guarantee it's going to come through if it's that high score into a first half. So that's my another play of this where it's like if you don't want to bet anything here, definitely lean to that second half under with this chief's team. They just time and time again, it's been cashing because it's just who they are. They're just a team that leans into the run the second half. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what?

We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts.

Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, for people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you

funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smygel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than me. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, Hope from a Hippocrite, I'll be changing

lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Tyke, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary.

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So I'm Leigham. This is my best friend, Janet. And we have been joined at the hips since high school. Absolutely. Now a redacted amount of years later, we're still joined at the hip. Just a little bit bigger hips, wider. This is a podcast.

We're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey. With all the snacks and drinks. Sidebar. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? I would have a hit a bogo? Well, then you got it. Do you want a white collar or something here?

Just take it. What are y'all doing? Microphones? Are you making a rap album? Oh, I would. Come on. Could you believe? I would buy it.

Cuts through the defense like a hot knife through sponge cake. That sounds delicious. Oh, you're lucky. I'm not a drug addict. You're lucky I'm not an alcoholic. You are. I'm lucky I'm not a killer. I love this team, and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on.

Oh. Oh. Oh. Listen to soccer moms on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Washington plus nine and a half at Detroit, total 55.5. This was Simon says. You liked the over a lot. I offer this from Evan.

And I say this with love because I am with you on the over. I haven't bet it yet because I think it's I think the total is going to come down a little bit. I keep seeing juice. It's directionally towards 55. In playoff games between number one and number six seats, the under is 80% 24 game sample size over the past 20 years. I still like the over. I think I think there's one of those games where they might start slow. and there might be 50 points scored in the fourth quarter.

I think when these defense are a little bit gassed, when the offenses have figured out how to scheme against these defenses that are not very good and don't have great personnel with the offenses that they have and the weapons they have on offense, the second half in this game is going to be just pinball. It's going to be amazing. That's my take on it. Yeah, and it's over, I'm betting knowing that

it's going to come down to a handful of fourth down plays. Like these two coaches don't shy away from who they are. And we've seen a time of them again. Like the Lions games that do go under, it's when they do struggle on fourth down. And Goff turns a ball over a lot. And, you know, as much to be like to bash their defense and those games where golf struggles,

this season, their defense has stepped up. So I do get where your hesitation comes from this over. I mean, it's an insanely high total. It's 55 and a half. So I totally get what you're coming from in that one. But yeah, When I go through the matchups, I still think, you know, as good as Washington's defense did make stops against the Bucks, you said it, right?

There was plenty of opportunity there for the Bucks just to roll this Washington team, especially offensively. And on the flip side, as well as Jane Daniels played, right, the zero pun zero turnovers, I only think that was that great of a game by him. Like there were a couple throws he did miss, a couple of guys he did have open. And it's like, I just think he needed to get that first. playoff game under his belt. Like I do think he'll be more confident,

relaxed than this and just knowing that the speed is different. Like people say it all the time, playoff speed is different. You have to play it to really get it. And I think he did, even talking after the game, Jan has talked about that where it's like he gets it, where people say it's different in the playoffs, it is. Like every guy plays as if it's their last snap.

They are just so desperate to get to where they're going. And that's the Super Bowl. And it's like, everyone knows, right? You put in a year of work for this exact one game opportunity. Everyone's going to be going super hard. hard, no plays off. And like you just said, I think this once again favors a high scoring game, the second half, where even if it's low scoring in the first half, it could end up being to track me just because these offenses both are so explosive. They both have weapons that can

at any point take the ball all the way downfield and score. And yeah, this game, like we talked on Shrop Cause, I was just shocked to know that there were so many professionals coming on the flying side. I just, we've seen historically, it's just rare that both favorites, big favorites like them and the Chiefs cover in the same week, you know, let alone have big win blowouts. And, you know, this commander's team, in a normal year, they're probably, you know, winning their division with the amount of wins they had this season.

Like this isn't just a normal six seed. So I do understand that trend from Evan. That does make sense. But it's also thinking about, well, the six seed used to be the last seat. So that was when the six seed was coming in and playing the one seed after pulling off an upset and kind of being this, you know, lucky to be in there type of team that gets in there

where nowadays it's like, this is like a 12, 13 win team. Like it's just totally different now. That is a great. That is a great point. So, yeah, it's just, I'm trying to look at it different because... So fuck you, Evan, and your stupid friends. Well, I told you you had that amazing stat just to basically about these high totals,

the difference between outdoors and indoors. And that to me is, once again, the difference here. Like, we're not playing in 20 degrees Philly here. We're playing in an air-controlled Ford Stadium where it's like perfect. It's perfect for this type of match. And both these teams are based on the track and they're just going to be running the ball up and down the field. So yeah, I still love Washington here. I love the matchup.

And obviously for them to win this, I know what I'm doing here. I need a ton of luck. Like there's a reason you're getting plus 400 right now in Washington. But this just feels like the upset. Like, you know, last year people forget the chiefs, they made that run as the four seed wherever it was. was like we've had a run here of you know these crazy later seeds making runs I mean what was it two three years ago the the ram bengals they're both four and three seeds so I know people are used to just the one seeds dominate I know historically

it is the best spot to be in but every now and then we do get a crazy upset and that's one bank on here it's like of all the games like we've gone through here I mean you could say the bills are an upset but that's not an upset it's they're one and a half point dog one point dog that's not a real upset But this would legit be shocking. I mean, even talking to bookmakers, it's basically 90% of the bets, 90% of the money, all of it is on Detroit's Money Line and their parlay is all their teasers. So this to me, in our normal year, I'd feel way more confident about this bet, Chad,

but it has been the year of chalk. So I'm betting it, but it's like with a little bit of confidence just because the public has just been winning on this type of bets. Well, look, I agree with you. Of the two games that we're looking at that are bigger favorites, I feel much more comfortable betting on the Chiefs than I do on the Lions. However, we've talked about this all year. The Lions under Dan Campbell and under Jared Goff are just dominant against the spread and against the spread at home and against the spread with extra rest. 13 and 4 against the spread as a due. with extra rest, 11 and 2 his faves.

Gough indoors, 34, 13, and 1 against the spread, 18, 2, and 1 against the spread, against teams averaging more than 24 points per game. The commanders average 28. The Lions are the best in the Super Bowl era over the past three years and four years against the spread. And then I want to remind everybody that the commanders have won their last five games on the final play of the game.

That's not even a joke. Five straight games winning the game on the final play of the game. So to me, that would make me think, okay, the commanders know how to stay in the game. They're going to keep it close. There's an opportunity for a backdoor cover. There's reasons to be on the commanders here. But I will say that that includes beating New Orleans, not a very good team. They needed help.

Beating Philly after Jalen Hertz was injured. Beating Atlanta because Rahim Morris is still learning how to use timeouts. Beating Dallas in a game that didn't matter. And then last week, because of Baker Mayfield's fumbled, they stayed in the game. And then they got the Zane Gonzalez field. goal off the upright. So either they are truly magical and they will find a way to back door as huge underdogs or they are due to just get blown out by a better team. Yeah, we need a lot of luck. It just reminds me too of early in the year and we bet I think

they got up to seven and a half in our contest or maybe it was six and a half. Either way, they were playing the Ravens and it was basically a game where they got dominated the entire game. Yeah, and they came back. Exactly. They literally found a way to come back and back door It got up to seven and a half. This is when the Ravens couldn't cover anyone in the secondary. Jaden Daniels had a miraculous throw down the sideline. They scored. They ended up covering the seven by half a point.

It was one of the few times where we played the number and it actually worked out for us this year. I will never forget it. It was brilliant. And it made us love Jaden Daniels. And that's what we need though. We know we're going to need a lot of luck here because of what you just broke down. Like Detroit is the better team. They're more of the established team.

They're the veteran team. This is their year, like we talked about. This is lined up perfectly. They have all their coaches still on the team. Their offense, basically, Montgomery's back. They're ready to go. Their offense is basically as good as it's going to get for the rest of the season. Right.

Like, there's nothing else they can add other than, you know, Montgomery. Like, that, to me, is the biggest game change of their offense, having him back with Gibbs. You know, we talked about that. That's a big deal. So we know it's an uphill battle here. And that's why we're playing the number, you know, throwing a little on the money line, but it's really all about us getting this backdoor. That's what me and chat are hoping here is that we can get a miracle hell merry of our own

and get this backdoor cover or crazy upset win on a two-minute drive by Jane Daniel. So to me, it's just a fun bet and a great value bet. But do you see it? You know what? Actually, I want to wait. I want to wait until we get to your biggest bet because I'm curious, think about this. Is this a, you know, one of my four biggest bets of the year bets?

Or is this, I feel like I'm finding the edge bet. And if I've got to choose each side, I'm choosing Washington. Don't answer it yet. Let's talk about it with your biggest bets. The L.A. Rams at Philadelphia, Eagles are minus six. The total is 44. It's gone up a little bit. This was my exact decision.

And not surprisingly, I'm not surprisingly, I'm not. surprised by the feedback that we got on sharp calls. To me, it's the only side where there is a clear discrepancy between what the number is and what it should probably be. You said you would bet this up to seven. It has moved up to six and a half at a couple of books. Still at six at bet three, six, at bet three, six. Nothing has, none of my analysis over the past 48 hours has made me walk away from being super confident about the Eagles. Yeah, it's still interesting that when you look in the action app, it's the most of the bets in the money right now are still in the Rams. So it shows that, you know, what I thought would

happen this week is kind of happening, which is, you know, the daytime talk shows, they're going to be shitting on Jalen Hertz. They're going to be asking questions. Is he the worst quarterback left out of all the quarterbacks in the playoffs? Is it? is can you trust him? Can you trust this Eagles team? Why wouldn't you trust Stafford, a guy who's been there before, right? And the fact that they're overlooking

to many little things that we aren't overlooking, which is Eagles match up really well against this Rams team. And now you factor in the fact that this is Stafford outdoors in the rain and the snow. And it's gonna be maybe 30 degrees, maybe 25 degrees at kickoff here in Philly on Sunday.

Like it does feel very easy. And I do wonder, why there was professional money on the Rams early. But now that I know that most that was just, you know, taking the value what they saw before they ran the numbers and the fact that basically any guy I've talked to was coming on the other side at this point. They've come in on this Eagles team. And yeah, this is going to, like to me, this is going to hit a point of,

okay, if it got up to seven, I would totally understand guys coming back to their side, taking the Rams once I got up to a touchdown. But still at six, I think there's still a lot. of value here on this eagle side and this might not be one of my biggest bets of the weekend just because of that where it's like i just don't see a scenario how the rams pull this one off like i i don't see how they can get stops defensively and then offensively how inconsistent stafford's been now you factor in the elements it just feels like a really bad match for him and i know that

you know the eagles lost to kobe dean who's their green dot he's their play caller defensively you know vangio joked about it's like there's only three calls per game he's like i don't don't run that unique of a defense. He's like, it's not going to be that tough. It's, the tough part is losing a leader, obviously, in your defense, but we talk coming into the playoffs. The Eagles were the only team with all 22 of their starters from week one at this point of the season. Now, obviously, they can't say that anymore, right? They lost one of their starters on defense, but other than that, they're pretty healthy. Now, on the flip side, this is the healthiest the Rams have been all year. Like, this is, their offensive line's still healthy.

They have all their receivers. I mean, we in chat talked about a little bit on Tuesday. Like losing Higby, I haven't gotten an update on it, but that's a huge. huge deal for that offense, obviously. Like, that's a really big safety valve for the Rams. And obviously now losing to Kobe Dean, who's, you know, arguably their best cover linebacker. That's even more of a reason to use your tight end and attack that. So that could be an angle if you're trying to play it with the Rams.

But I just, the more I look into it, it just feels like the Rams, that was their big moment, their win for the city last week in that game against the Vikings. And the way they're going to scheme it up this evening. Eagles team, especially with the weather, what it's going to be, which is, you know, either cold, snowy or wet, it's going to be a Sequin type of game. And when I go back and I watch that film on that Rams game, it really did look like men playing against college kids, how big the Eagles' offensive line is compared to this D-line of the Rams. So, you know, the Rams new coming in this year, right? They're going to be really inexperienced, rebuild year, losing Aaron Donald. The guys

have been playing above board. Like, they have really stepped up. But this is a total totally different animal than what they face against the Vikings. Even if you go back and watch a Vikings game, there was actually a pretty big holes in that game for them running. They just got behind and they had to pass the ball. And once they had to pass the ball, you saw it just fell apart with Sam Darnet. Like there were multiple times there we held on the ball for too long.

You can't say the same about Hertz. Like Hertz is the type of guy that if their first read's not going to be there, he's going to either pull it down and try to run it or he'll try to make some type of play happen with his feet, which, you know, Sam Darno obviously is not the same type of athlete is Jalen hurts here. So yeah, the more I dive into it, Chad, the more I love it. I'm with you.

I was shocked to see this total went back up. So obviously some smart money is coming on the over. Great. Give me better value on a game that's going to be sloppy in the weather elements with this outdoor team and L.A. coming outdoors. Like I just feel like this does feel like the classic Philly game. We talked on Tuesday a little bit like 31 to 10, 31 to 14, 31, like just a very low scoring game where, you know, one side puts up a bunch of points where the other side doesn't.

You know, that's what I'm banking here is that. The Eagles obviously roll, but I still think the Rams could keep up with them offensively. And yeah, the more I look at this Rams team and how special of a season they had, right, I think, you know, their rare spot, they're 104 to start the year, and they made a crazy run then the season, I believe it was 9 and 2 to take this division. Incredible hats off to this team, what they've done this season. But this just feels like they're finally running into an absolute jugger on this Eagles team. And, you know, they had it last week with Jalen Hurts.

There's no excuse this week that, yes, he was rusty. He looked rusty. No excuse this week. Full game playing, everything on board. Eagle should absolutely roll this Rams team. Yeah, the number just hasn't made sense all week. Hasn't made sense to me that it's not at seven, to be honest. I talked about this the other day.

This line was three when they played each other earlier in the season, not that long ago. And it was in L.A. The fact that it's only six now. the Eagles to me have gotten significantly better. And I think there's too much value being placed on what the Rams did in prime time against the Vikings. A team that you and I were on the Rams, a lot of professional betters, thought they were on a downward trend. And we're getting off the Sam Darnold bandwagon after what everyone saw against Detroit.

So, yeah, bet, bet, bet, bet, bet, bet, bet, bet, bet away. Bet away. Like you said, though, there's some amazing trends here. If you are scared off by the number, this ego spot is a great teaser spot. Basically, when they're a big favor like this at home in the playoffs, they almost always went out right, especially under Siriani. It's been a really great spot. Siriani struggles with this team have really come on the road in the playoffs, not so much

at home. So it's another just a great spot to back this team at home before, obviously, they're most likely going on the road next week to Detroit. it. Simon, it is time for our big balls, bed of the week. Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games start with great underwear. And Tommy John makes the greatest. We're heading into the Baltimore Ravens at the Buffalo Bills. The bills are one-point favorites now. Bet 365. Still a couple of one and a halfs out there, but money has been coming back in on the

bills, as we discussed during sharp calls. The total is 51 and a half. We're throwing people a little bit of a curveball. I'll get to that in a second. Just some updates. Zay Flowers did not practice on Wednesday. John Harba said that doesn't necessarily mean he won't play on Sunday, but did not practice. This is a luck rankings under. We discussed. liking the under in this game. It is our big ball bet. Our first big balls under presented by Tommy John, 51.5 Bills Ravens.

We were never going to get there as a big balls with the bills. I can't get there with the bills. The wise guys can't get there with the bills. bills, you might be on an island in some respect with the bills, despite the money moving. But betting the under here feels like ballsy because all anyone wants to do is talk about the quarterbacks in this game, and that is making the number higher than you would expect because of the explosive nature of how these two guys can score points. But in seven playoff games, Lamar has never gone over.

Even when these two teams played last time and Derek Henry scored them, I think the first play of the game, it still went under from the original total. And like, these are run-oriented teams. That's the key right there. That's the key right there, what you just said. Baltimore's time of possession, fifth in the leagues.

Past three games, it's first. Buffalo is fifth. both are top four in rushing play percentage and top seven in rushing attempts for game. People are just thinking about the quarterbacks and the MVP candidates. They're not thinking about the holistic nature of this game. Yeah, and that tends what the public does, right? They just look at the basics of it. They're so silly.

Yeah, and that's why the early money here is come in. I'm hoping people listen to this. This is the rare spire. I'm like, pull your car over. bet this under now because to me all the money is going to come in professionally on the under and I think the public will join them once they see that I know this is another weather game chat this is a game 15 degrees right they're saying it might be 18 degrees 10 degrees it feels like 10 degrees or negative 3 degrees whatever they're going to project with that lake effect wins because they're

saying it might be 15 to 20 per hour wins during this game as well some lake effects know as well so this just everything about this says ugly low scoring game where two teams teams are both run heavy and you just touch on like this bill's identity especially the second half of the season it feels like every time i'm watching they're bringing in the extra alignment right yeah i was just going to say that yeah it's the truth though it's like that's totally what they become because they know they have the ultimate weapon in the backfield i mean obviously Lamar's the ultimate weapon but josh allen's right there with him where it's like you can do the read option with him and cook and you bring in that extra alignment you let josh allen dictate the play if they don't

up to stop the run if they're going to keep the safeties back to stop the passing down the field the bills are more than happy to run the ball all day and that's what they've been doing like defense is having respect Josh Allen's big arm and the fact that he is not turning the ball over it's really changed everything with this bill's team they can be boring long drive conservative and just run the ball I mean cook you know we don't talk about him enough because of the Josh Allen factor but it's like this guy is a top five top six running back right now football like He is their rare breed that when you get down towards the red zone, he can find a way every time they get in there.

Like he's got that type of town where he can find those holes and squeak in to get those touchdowns. And they've really relied on him this season. We're giving him more touches the season going along. And, you know, the fact that this is 51.5, I think Chad just talked about it, it really feels like an inflated line because of public reception. It's the two MVPs playing against each other. Like this is going to be a type of shootout.

and the books are being rewarded right now. The money, the bets, all of it right now are still on the over. So I want people to get ahead of it. This easily could shift two points by kickoff just because of the weather. And I think that once more news I'll start talking about, once more sports shows start talking about, that's when more people are going to start coming on this total. Now, do you want to get to the sides, Chad?

Well, listen, I love the sides. At Thanksgiving, I'm a huge sweet potato guy. guy. Are you dug in though? That's what the people want to know. Is Chad dug in on the Ravens? Are you betting the Ravens? I might just go all in on the under.

You bitch. You pick a side. Because people are giving me shit. They're like, this is the classic spot where Chad and Simon are going to count this as a win no matter what side they go on. No, I'm going to make Chad pick a side. I will pick a side and one of us will dance in the other side's grave. Well, this is going to have to be a scooch roulette game.

I have not made a decision. Party of me is just sort of hoping the money keeps coming in on the bills and I can get it back to pick. That's true. That's true. You know, so, like, I don't, I don't feel rushed to choose a side in this game at all. But I will say, as a favorite of three points or less or an underdog, Lamar is 26 and 9 against the spread. Yeah. In the playoffs and the regular seasons.

The only six times in his career, he is open as an underdog and ended up. closing as a favorite, he's 6 and 0 against the spread and 6 and 0 straight up. Like, it's very hard not to want it back Lamar, who also, I think, is leading a more well-rounded team. However, Josh Allen versus teams that allow less than 21 points per game, 69% against the spread. That is comparable to Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees. So there's ways to love both sides here.

I talked to overall though, like you just said, the numbers do favorit the Ravens. Like when you really dive into the trends. 100%. If you look at the overall matchup, the Ravens are the better team, right? And look, it's reflected in the line. They are very short favorites on the road against the number two seed.

The market, the bookmakers are telling you that the Ravens are the better team in this matchup if you don't play this game on the field. Obviously, I want to get the best number I can. I don't feel rushed to bet the Ravens yet. I'm still frustrated that I didn't bet him at plus two. I'm definitely leaning to the Ravens. We talked about the first half the other day. betting the Ravens at minus a half point.

Stucky on the Action Network pod talked about the Ravens first half on the money line. I feel like every time at minus 110, I feel like every time Stucky talks about betting the Ravens in the first half, they cover. It's weird.

Well, the odds are pretty good. I think they're like the best first half team other than Houston ever. And by the way, the bills are the best second half team ever. And I told you, that's what like, there's a bunch of trends

that I love with the bills, but that was the biggest one that jumped out to me that, yes, the Ravens win the first half, 1310. Yeah, you cover your first half bet, but that is like, you're dead. To me, you're dead if you're a Ravens backer. You need at least a 10-point lead heading to the second half because Josh Allen all season has flipped a switch. And we saw literally started week one.

I mean, me and Chad, we're on Arizona week one against this bills team. Feeling great. I think we had six and a half or seven maybe. And Arizona dominates the first half. Josh Allen came out, second half, just absolutely dominated, blew them out. And it basically set the tone for the whole season where it doesn't matter where he's at, what his team's struggles are.

And the second half, it's just Josh out. He makes, like, there are no adjustments that the team can make to slow him down. And we've seen late here, though, I think the Bill's defense second half has really caught up to it. They've been great at making these second half adjustments and really helping obviously this Bill's team stay in these type

of game. So, yeah, I've I'm with Chad that like, I feel way more confident. and betting the under here. But I have to pick a side. I am betting aside. I am betting the side. I am betting the table.

Like, fuck, man. I'm talking some pros here. Like, you idiot, this is the easiest money in life. You got to take the Ravens here. And it's just like, what the fuck do you know, dude? Like, you're feeling that confident about betting this number. I feel more confident or other bets on the sides than I do in this one where it's like, I'm betting here on my model, obviously, but it's also just a playoff feeling

of this does. feel like the type of spot in the back. Not that he's doubted here, Josh Allen, but it feels like it, right? When you're going through the playoff numbers, he doesn't have a great record either of the playoffs, right? And we talked about it. I never put that on him.

I always put that on the defense that they've kind of let him down these exact spots. We're having Stefan Diggs drop a wall right between his hands. Like, I know the bills have been a curse franchise and they've had bad luck in these exact spots. We're on the flip side, I mean, fuck, dude.

The Ravens became a franchise on what, Chad in 1998 and they have two Super Bowls like they don't there this is not some long-suffering fan base this is a fan base that's been spoiled beyond belief and yeah Evan has an amazing stat Josh Allen oh and three is a dog in his career but I think he little thing that you know during the playoffs in the playoffs in the playoffs and straight up that's all against my homes though like when I'm Houston oh Houston oh right right we did bet that one I do remember game Houston two and a half yeah that is weird thinking back to that holy shit Watson man damn that's right yeah so I don't know it's it feels like Alan I just

viewed as cryptonade as a Chiefs I just think this is you know this not this is career defining but this is definitely off-season defining like the amount of shit that's gonna come on the other side whoever loses this game especially if Josh Allen doesn't live up to the moment or Lamar doesn't live up to the the moment. I mean, it's all there. This is what, you know, TV lives for talking about this in the offseason. So, yeah, this, this obviously is the biggest game of the weekend, no doubt. This is the, you talk about sides. This is the main course, brother. This is like the game, the ratings that we should, we should set a line for what the ratings will be. Like,

if ratings have generally been 25, 26 million viewers for the playoffs, I think this goes to 28. 28 million viewers for this. Let's keep an eye on that so we can talk about it next week. Matt Mitchell, make a note if Matt Mitchell survives the weekend because we know the bills are long-suffering fans because Matt Mitchell talks about it. Non-fucking stop.

It is, he's making zero long-term plans right now because we don't know if he'll be here to record the podcast on Sunday night because of his love for the bills. Yeah. I feel like my biggest bets this weekend are going to be the under and the Eagles. And if I bet on the Ravens, it's going to be like a tiny little taste or maybe the first half. I have no courage on this game at all.

I told you. I told you there's smart professional money on that Raven side. And I'm a professional, Simon. Okay. I definitely say it's more of the professional side as we sit here on Thursday. But like Chad, just talked a little bit about there is some respected money coming at this point on the bill side. and there has been some buyback, and we have seen this number move down to one.

So it is a really torn game between professionals this one. Simon, we have some big road underdogs here in the divisional round, and one of the biggest thrills, a gambler can experience is watching the quarterback of a big underdog

with the game just out of reach. Masterfully, march his team down the field to score a futile, last second touchdown to cover the spread. That's what we, we call a back door cover. But after the thrill wears off, it's only natural to think,

what is covering my back door? And that's where the unrivaled, breathable comfort of Tommy John steps in. Because with thousands of five-star reviews, Tommy John has been on the cutting edge of covering America's back doors with flexible comfort for years. Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025? Because comfort is king. Right now you can shop Tommyjohn.com slash favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. That's Tommyjohn.com slash favorites.

I'm laughing a little bit because as is tradition, I'm a train monkey. I just, I read whatever is in front of me. I have no idea what the ad read is going to be. and a lot of times Matt Mitchell, all credit to him, will create entirely new reads that I'm reading in real time for the first time. And so when I saw the line, that's what we got. That's what we call a backdoor cover. I was like, oh, God, where is he going to take this pun? I have no idea.

How is he going to work this into an acceptable ad for our sponsor, Tommy John? And he did it. And it makes me giggle every single time. He's a genius. I hope the bills win because we'd truly. we'd be at a loss. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news.

What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts.

We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman

help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody!

Please! But there's so much more to me than that. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Spike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice.

Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Cream a chicken suit. Hey, cream. Cream a chicken suit.

This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from a Hypocrite as part of the Mike Coutura Podcast Network available on the IHartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHart Podcasts So I'm Leigham's. This is my best friend Janet.

Hey! And we have been joined at the hips since high school. Absolutely. Now a redacted amount of years later, we're still joined at the hip. Just a little bit bigger hips, wider. This is a podcast. We're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games

in the back of my Honda Odyssey. With all the snacks and drinks. Sidebar. Did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? Oh, they had a bogo. Well, then you got it. Do you want a white color or something here? Just take it.

What are y'all doing? Microphones? Are you making a rap album? Oh, I would. Come on. Could you imagine? I would buy it. Cuts through the defense like a hot knife through sponge cake.

That sounds delicious. Oh, you're lucky. I'm not a drug addict. You're lucky I'm not an alcoholic. You are. I'm lucky I'm not a killer. I love this team, and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on. Oh.

Listen to soccer moms on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Simon, I have said my biggest bets are going to be the under and the Eagles. Tell me what your biggest bets are going to be. Yeah, I'm heavy on the Eagles side right now. Definitely heavy on this under like you just talked about in this game. Same goes for teasers. Like if you want to join me right now, have a ton of teasers with the Chiefs, Eagles, tons of teeters with the commanders with the bills obviously love the commanders and

you know like I said I've I've taken the plus nine and a half and I've thrown a little bet just a little bet on the money line here it's just something I have to do where I you know this this the only real dog in this matchup I actually believe in that can pull off the upset so I have to do it like there's got to be one shocker right this can't be the year of chalk the year of boring Chad can we get an upset here in this divisional round so Yeah, for my biggest bets, not a shocker. Love Eagle, especially even at minus six,

and love that under in that Bill's Raven game. Just that feels like I have it at 48 and a half, even if it came down by two points, I think you're still getting good value of 49.5. So, like we talk all the time, key numbers, people. 51.5 is a key number. Like, if you go mathematically how often that lands on 51, you're still getting great value right now

taking this under at 51.5. When all hope is lost, All this left is relief. Scoot Shrullet. Scoot Shrewlette. You'll be on the bills. I'll be on the Ravens. And we'll just fucking do it.

I never win. I've just cursed the Ravens. You're welcome. Matt Mitchell. I'm doing it for you. Just so you'll be around and your whole neighborhood gets ice screaming. You get to eat your fucking wings with your gloves on.

But that's what it's going to be. Scoot Rulet, bills and Ravens. Let's go. All right. Before we get out of here, let's bring in Director of Research, Evan Abrams. for the final word. Evan, this ought to be good.

The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. This is going to be a mess. To answer one of Simon's questions from earlier, so you talked about Hertz and a teaser, well, how about this? Favorite of seven or less at home or an underdog. Hertz is 17 and 5 against a spread in his career,

20 and 2 in a six-point teaser in that spot. So basically asking him to win the game, but not too bad there. So to your point, though, like putting the Eagles in a six-point teaser right now and getting them at pick with either the Chiefs at two and a half or the bills at seven and a half is as good a play as what I did, which is Chiefs minus two and a half bills plus seven and a half. Feels like a decent leg, obviously. If you like the Eagles, it's the money line. Let's talk about the cold game you started with, which is Houston and Kansas City. So Houston will attempt to do what hasn't been done in almost 30 years. So road play. playoff teams since 2003, nine and 13 straight up in eight plus mile an hour wins,

25 degrees or less. Now, they are 0 and 4 when they are dome teams, losing by 16.8 points per game. The last dome team I found to win in those temperatures on the road in 25 degrees or less in the playoffs, 95, 96 Colts in Kansas City, Jim Harbaugh at quarterback there. So been a minute. Let's see if Houston can pull the all-time shot. So I kind of wanted to talk Washington and Detroit here for a second. And there's been a little bit of waffling.

So a lot of people like Detroit, a lot of people like Washington. I'll just toss out two different angles here. So it's not often we see a super dominant team like Detroit. So 75% plus ATS win percentage entering the playoffs, plus being a favorite of nine or more. It's only happened three times last 20 years. Aaron Rogers, 2008, won by 22. Drew Breeze, 2012, won by 17. Tom Brady, 2017, won by 18.

So if you like Detroit and you think they are the juggernaut, they are walking in, sounds decent to me. Now, the one angle I looked at, because, listen, Washington, scoring 28 points per game, obviously Jaden putting up a ton of points on the ground through the air. I thought this was interesting. So playoff underdogs of seven and a half or more, just simply off the bat. 32 and 29 against the spread last 20 years. But what happens if the underdog scores, say, 17 points?

Those dogs are 26 and 13 against a spread, 67%. If they score 21 plus, 18 and 8, 69%. So to me, it's more of a question of Washington's team total than it is the actual spread, but just two different ways to look at it. And then I found this interesting. So basically this Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson game is pretty much one to an MVP. Now, obviously, Sequin could sneak in there or whatever. We haven't seen the votes yet.

But if you look at top two players to meet in the playoffs in MVP voting, it'll be the 14th time, according to FTN, who did this research. But I went a little deeper because I wanted to see, when was the last time one of those two quarterbacks or players were home underdogs in the game? Last happened, 1976. So the fact that Josh Allen is going to close as a home underdog in this game between two people, two quarterbacks in MVP voting, felt, you know, like the line maybe didn't make sense, but obviously it's how you put it there.

Now, the last time it happened in 1976, Steelers at Baltimore Colts, it was Bert Jones versus Jack Lambert. So that is the last time it actually happened, 14 matchups between. You know why this line makes sense? You know why it makes sense? Because Lamar Jackson should win the MVP. Fair. He should be the odds on favorite to win the MVP.

I agree. I completely agree. And I've been saying Evan agrees at the end of time. Simon, you're a hater. Simon's a hater. He doesn't agree, but Evan agrees. All right. I got one more for you. We are applying logic and reason to this. We're not getting emotional about the narrative. Correct. We are. And that's why the line, honestly, in this game, is probably one of the more interesting we've seen, right? I mean, I don't think anyone really can choose between these two teams, but I think the public has because it likes Baltimore in this spot. I lying down to one right now, too. So,

I really truly believe no one has any idea. I'll leave you with just a spot play. So for Washington and the Rams, both won last week as underdogs, both now on short rest on the road, those teams are 36 and 76, 32% straight up, including 3 and 11 straight up in the playoffs since 2003. So an upset there by either Washington or the Rams would truly be odds-defying. An interesting parlay could be Washington,

team total over and Washington to cover. Because if the odds are so great and the trend is so great, that teams who score over that number of 17 or 21, which the commanders can acceptably do, and those teams tend to cover, that's a fun little parlay. Yeah, also, if you're betting the over like I've talked about, same game parlay.

Like if you want to throw in David Montgomery, Terry McLaurin anytime touchdown, like, go crazy if you're trying to do something crazy like that. Because obviously if we're getting to 55 points, we're going to need a lot of touchdowns, Chad. So I know we want to talk a lot about same game parlays, but this is the exact scenario where you see those dumb tickets of guy bets $10 to win $20,000 because he's same game parlayed all these different touchdown scores. That's basically what we need here if we want to hit this over. So, yeah, that's another angle of playing that game. I like having so few games. we can get so much deeper. As a reminder, what's that F?

I was going to say, got to find Tim Patrick on that ticket as well. That's going to be a good one this week. Oh, that's a good idea. I like it. I'm writing that down. I got a whole page of other alternative bets here. All right. That's a reminder.

Chris Raybond special. Yeah. That is. I'm sure we'll get some of that and convince me. As a reminder, the Favits podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet. $5. Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit $10. Place a bet for $5. Get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props,

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