The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Saturday Special-Chad Millman

Episode Date: August 22, 2020

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follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hi, everybody. Welcome to the Saturday podcast. And thanks to everybody who sent all the nice, even Bob Costas did, sent all the nice congratulations on the appearance on the Bill Maher show. It was fun. It's been in one of my favorite TV shows for a decade.

And I used to host a show with Chad Milman. It was in the basement, the bowels of ESPN. I don't even know what it was called. Collins Football Show, I think. He is a chief content officer for the Action Network, my friend Chad Milman. That was a good show. We had it, there was a refrigerator. We had so little space in the studio.

They gave us right next to the first urinal in the history of ESPN. We had a refrigerator on our studio and the smell of the seven. It's like you could smell an old sports jacket and toupee. Do you remember that show, Chad Milman? Not only do I remember it. I can't tell you how many people still talk to me about it. And I will say, like, it was the most fun I had at ESPN. Like, that Sunday morning, it felt a little bit like a party,

partially because, like, we were in the basement. And nobody was really paying attention. And we were doing this gambling segment. And, like, people were just like, wait, they're doing this. this gambling segment, but it's Sunday morning at 9 o'clock, it couldn't have been more fun. I know it was. By the way, the whole pandemic COVID, my takeaway on how it's affecting the sports industry, I would not want to be like in the ticket business, stub hub for instance. That would be it's a great business, by the way. I wouldn't want to, I wouldn't want to be in the stub hub

business today. How is it affected the sports gambling industry? Well, it's actually been incredibly sort of profitable from a long-term perspective because you've seen it with things like draft kings, right? That stock went public in April and exploded. You've seen it things like with Penn National, which bought Barstool, and that stock has exploded. Our business has been insane since May because the one thing people still want to do is bet on sports. And it's the one thing they can do, right? And since May, what we've seen is like, okay, UFC came back, and they crushed it with UFC 249, and our audience went up incredibly, right? And sort of the other elements of our business that drive the revenue, those skyrocketed. Then you came back in June,

you had UFC and golf, right? And then all of a sudden, in July, you're getting UFC golf, and you're getting baseball, and you're getting a little bit of NBA. And July was the biggest month, honest to God, Colin, in two years of being around, the biggest month we ever had. And so, I know that this is not dissimilar from what's happening in sports in a lot of places. Like, for betting specifically, people just have a massive appetite, and they can do it from their home. So they don't have to go to the stadium. Yeah. All right. Before we get to teams and look at the NFL, how are you guys, how are books handling the value of home field? In some instances, there'll be no fans, like in L.A. and other instances, there'll be a few fans.

Yeah, so you know I like to talk to the wise guys. Yes. And I will sort of get everybody to give me what they're thinking. And I had a guy on my podcast to say, and he was telling me something very interesting, which was it wasn't just ranking the teams that will sort of lose value, right? Let's say home field advantage is worth. Generally, bookmakers rank it as worth being about three points, right?

For the really, really good teams that have great home field advantage, sometimes you're talking about four or five points. And that could be the Bills, that's the Eagles, that's the Chiefs, that's the Browns. So those teams, you've got to figure out how to measure that. And in a lot of ways, those teams are being downgraded. And where you really start to see this and what professional betterers really see this is they will mark how well teams do coming out of halftime if they're tied or losing. How often coming into the third quarter, going into the fourth quarter, had they used that momentum at home to build a lead or get closer in a game that they were losing pretty badly in, right?

So all of a sudden you're losing sort of that adrenaline rush, and the bookmakers and the wise guys know how to account for that. But what's really interesting is they're also looking at the teams that probably have the biggest advantage by not having to worry about playing in front of a big crowd because teams like the Jaguars, teams like the football team in Washington. Those are the teams that they're always playing in front of away crowds because everybody who comes to the games is rooting for the other team. So all of a sudden, it's a much easier environment than for them to play in. So they're

actually giving those teams a little bit of upgrade. Interesting, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer for the Action Network. So I like over-under bets. They're fun. I generally bet unders. I'll give you the one to me that feels like stealing money. So for the last several years, I picked two teams every year that I think can double their win total. We were very high on the 49ers last year. We thought that was the easiest bet in the board. And we were, I forget who we bailed on. Oh, we pulled back on the Chicago Bears.

That was one I remember. I remember they went like, they had a great record and we said, no. So the two teams, the Patriots win total. What is it, what is it in most places like eight and a half, nine feels ridiculously high to me, opt-outs, no, no camp, no preseason. Cam's not getting all the snaps. They don't have a functioning veteran tight end. They let go of a lot of high-end smart veterans who are reasonably affordable.

I think the Patriots under, to me, is the best over-under bet I've seen. Your thoughts on that, and is there one over or under you like? I am staying away from the Patriots. Like, it's right in that range that you're talking about. And when you're in that range and you still have in the division, you still have the Jets who aren't very good. I don't care what anyone says. Like, they won six of their last eight games last year.

But look at the teams they were playing. They were not very good teams. You still have the Dolphins who, while they were much, much better, like, they're still a team on the upswing. So I'm not entirely convinced, like, I want to be on the Patriots in any form. until I start seeing what happens during the season, then I might sort of get comfortable betting on a game-to-game basis. The under that I like, the under that I really like,

and a lot of wise guys have said the same thing to me, under Bengals five and a half. And this has been one where the public has been coming in on Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals on the over because it's Joe Burrow. And like he's the number one pick, and he had one of the most fantastic offensive season, in the history of color football, and it's so high profile, and everyone's thinking, okay, it's the Bengals that are improving, and they did acts last year, right?

But look at what everybody is sort of saying about the Bengals from an offensive perspective, and people forget that, like, their offensive line isn't very good, right? And especially, now this is when the wise guys sort of start to get into it, and look at coaching, and they look at how that team made half-time adjustments, and they would always come out and get smoked in the second half. So now you're talking about a bad offensive line. You're talking about a coaching staff that isn't very good with a rookie quarterback who they might not coach very well.

And by the way, you're talking about a division with the Browns who I think are improved and will be much better. The Steelers, who were a team I actually bought to win the division and to win the Super Bowl. And you got the Ravens, who I actually think we'll go over there, 11, what is now 11 and a half in win total. So you're also looking at potentially six losses for this team just in the division. So a lot of the wise guys I spoke to have been winning anywhere from three to four games. So I like the under and the Bengals. You know, an interesting one is Green Bay won 13 games last year, but they were more of a 9 and 17.

They were out gained. And it just happens. Sometimes the schedule works out and you win 13 and you feel like a nine-win team. So they're over under, is closer to nine. I almost think now we're kind of selling off too much of the Packers. Devonte Adams and Aaron Rogers and Matt LaFleur should only work better together. I think their offensive line, pro football focus has that as a top five. The free agent acquisitions on defense last year, get another year together. And I don't think Chicago's going to be any good or Detroit's going to be any good. So they'll get some in-division wins. I think we're selling too much of our stock on Green Bay, thoughts. Yeah, I agree. I actually think that this is priced sort of perfectly. There's something called Pythagorean wins, right?

And that is when, like, the number of wins you have does not reflect sort of the number of wins you should have based on your total number of points and your opponent's total number of points. By that theory, the Packers were a nine or ten win team last year. And I don't think they got that much better this year. They obviously didn't draft first round talent where they needed to fill some hold. Devante Adams is good, but they definitely needed receiving help. Aaron Rogers, the past five years, if you look at his staff, he's generally a 10-220 quarterback. He is not a top 10 quarterback. And so I do believe, like, it was so overpriced, it got bought under. Now it's sort of

exactly where it is. I'm avoiding it. I disagree with you about the Bears, though. I actually, I like the bears a lot in this division, and I actually love the Vikings in this division. So that's also why I'm sort of staying away from the Packers. Who is, give me a team. Every year, there's a shocker. If I said to you, God, how did we not see that? Who's out there that you think sneakily could kind of shock us? Arizona Cardinal.

So Kyler Murray is a guy who, and I did not know you were asking you this, but I'm glad you did. Kyler Murray is a guy who all offseason like every professional better, every fantasy player I know, they have just been waiting and waiting and waiting to bet this guy at every opportunity. And this is a line, by the way. This is a Cardinals line that opened pretty low. It opened about, I think, their season one total opened about five and a half. It did. Five and a half.

Now it's trending closer to, it's at six and a half, and I think you've got to pay a little bit of a commission to get that six and a half. Like, I still think there's value there, but there's this thing in betting called getting the best of the number. Like, you just want to know that you got it at the lowest possible importance like buying any stuff, right? You want to buy low and so high. So, like, you're still not getting the best of the number. I do think it's worth betting the over on them at six and a half because this is a team that I think is ripe to make huge leads. just because he is so good. And as you recall, they added a pretty top-flat receiver.

So this is a team that I don't think people are still sort of found the ceiling on. More with Chad Millman. Coming up. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,

embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the fourth. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite

athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next, we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMs?

Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the look back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but yeah, yeah, literally. But just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. So, there you're

I'm finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games.

And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. That's, I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough.

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And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast. Learn the hard way. Open your free, I Heart Radio app. Search Learn the hard way and listen now. Chad Millman joining us again, host of the Favorites podcast. He's on our Saturday podcast that I have known Chad for a long time.

Our wives are similarly redheaded and beautiful. I told you that before your wife and my wife, they almost look like sisters. It's weird. I know. It's true. It is kind of crazy. By the way, you used to work at ESPN, and then you were influential. You ran the magazine and you ran dot com.

And you told me something once about the dot-com world. You said, it never sleeps. You're literally working on it all day where I can do a radio show, go home and drink vodka at one and just, you know, like I'm a Russian oligarch, and then I don't have to, you know, think about the show until the next morning. So your life now is at the Action Network, and I always knew you had a real, you've written many books, but you have a gambling feel to you, a gambling rub. And so I'm very happy for you because I think you're doing now what you wanted to do. So we get back to the NFL season. There are some lines out for opening week. You give me a line.

I'll give you my initial instincts. And then you can hammer me. Okay. I will give you bills. Bills are about five and a half against the Jets. I like, where's the game at? The game is in New Jersey. I think I would take Buffalo.

Darnold has struggled against Belichick. He has struggled against elite defenses. By the way, so is Josh Allen. But the Jets lost Jamal Adams and C.J. Mosley, so I don't consider it a great defense. So Darnold has been a little hit and miss when he plays Dallas's defense or the Raiders defense last year. He looked, it was superb. But there is a quality to Sam when he is hurried with a pass rush. Patriots have done this.

Bills. He gets ugly fast. I would take the bills. All right. I made one mistake. This game is in Buffalo, but you're spot on. That's what the wise guys are doing too, right? And I think a lot of this comes down to everything you just said.

there is not a ton of faith in Sam Darnold. And there is a huge amount of faith in what the bills have, both in adding Stefan Diggs and in drafting AJ Appendezza. I think that's how you say his name. AJ Epinessa, who was from Iowa, right? And, like, they got really, really good on the defensive side of the ball. They added a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball. So that's why, like, we're not only saying sort of the way,

our professional analysts have looked at it. They like the bills at five and a half. They like them at six. They bet the bills all the way up to a touchdown in this game. All right, Millman, give me another one. This is a good one, all right? You're not dealing with some, you're not dealing with Shanky McShankster here. I have my guy that drives it right down the middle of the fairway on these picks.

Yeah, no, I know. I've seen it. Like 100%. You are very famous and you've got a lot of multimedia outlet. You can do anything. I am Mr. Platform. Yeah, I got a lot of them. Let me see how much you've learned over the years, okay?

Seahawks, one-point favorite at Atlanta, at Atlanta. God, I hate Atlanta. It burned me so many times. I resent that franchise. Seattle, minus one at Atlanta. You know, not a big, not a lot of fans. I'd be honest with you. I think I would bet Russell Wilson on that. I'd probably take Seattle minus one. That's a terrible idea, Colin. That is a terrible, terrible idea. We already know. We already know,

like, it is so hard to win on the road, right? It is one of the hardest things to do in the NFL is to win on the road. It's even harder. Like, you're winning it less than a 50% clip on the road as a favorite. So you're telling me that the Seattle Seahawks are going to, and I'm not a buyer in this theory, but I do think it has, like, if you add them all up, impact. The Seattle Seahawks are going to fly across the country, and they're going to play an early game, and they're going to go against an Atlanta team that was starting to play a lot better, especially defensively. They started to figure some things out.

When Dan Quinn's job was on the line, like they finally started to figure things out, they're going to get a little bit of an advantage by being at home. in an unprecedented preseason when nobody really got to practice. And they're going to get to play against the Seattle Seahawks defense that, you know, has Jamal Adams, but hasn't really gotten to. Their defensive line has regressed. In fact, pro football focus is the worst defensive line in the league right now. It's regressed badly last two years. So why are you taking the Seahawks from the road to save it?

I think I get the better coach and the better quarterback. I don't like it. I mean, I know that's a great theory. Like that's a great thing to generally bet on. But I think that's what you do when you feel like the line is pretty sharp and you've got to make a choice. You don't do that when you've got a team that is favored on the road. Give me another one, Millman. All right.

Let's see another fun one here. Hold on. Chad Millman joined you. All right. Here's a fun one. Oh, yeah. This is the one. Bucks plus four and a half at.

The Saints. What I don't like, I think Tampa's going to be really good. But boy, that is a lot to bite off in your first game with a new system. So I think I would take New Orleans as a home favorite there. Now, if they played six weeks later, I'd take Tampa. First week, you know, I think I'd take New Orleans. No, you're totally wrong. So think about this, right?

think about the fact that, like, A, the Bucks at the end of last year, forget about Tom Brady for a second. Forget about Tom Brady. The Bucs at the end of the last year, their defense got so much better. It got so much better. I keep telling everybody, September, the Bucks defense will be the story, not the offense. I agree. And you saw that last year, too, by the way.

Like, they continued to get better. The reason why the Bucks can do anything is because James Winston kept throwing the all the way. And like, as many games as he kept them in is what he would keep them out of. So, like, the bucks with James Winston are about, say, seven-point underdogs. Seven-point underdogs, right? Tom Brady, like, is about three and a half to four points better than James Winston in most sort of professional betting rankings when they're figuring out how much quarter-border are worth against the point spread, right? Say, Tom Brady is usually worth in the 7 to 8 range,

and James is usually worth in, like, the 4 to 5 range. So if you just take away those three points, then already the bucks should be no more than 4-point underdogs in this game. They were 5.5.5. It was bet down to 5, and now it's bet down to 4.5. So you're still getting, to me, half a point of value. And don't forget, like, in these, in these games like four has become a really key number.

So if you can get four and a half, then you're still getting the best of the number. All right, one more. I don't want to give away all your picks. Give me one more. I don't care. I mean, that's what they're there for. That's what we do.

We share. That's what we do. I like that. That's a good motto in life. Yeah. Like, what do I get from, like, hoarding all the info? I want to give it to people and, like, they learn and get better, and we all get better along the way.

This is the hardest one for me right now. And this is a real challenge. So let me give you, I want to get the right number here. Hold on. I want to give you the Colt and the Jaguars. Right now I've got Indy on the road at Jacksonville. They are seven-point favorites. Seven-point favorites on the road.

That's a lot. I'll tell you, I think Philip Rivers with that old line, if that Wisconsin running back, Jonathan Taylor, I think he's really good. if he is good. Marlon Mack, Jonathan Taylor, that offensive line can be ball control lines. But I'm going to guess that seven's too many on the road. I think I'd pass on this game. I think the number's right. But I want to guess that the wise guys, for the record, there's two types of wise guys. There's guys that are just sharps, smart guys. And there's guys who have probably at some point been long-haul truckers, killed people.

they end up betting because they, you know what I mean? So, like, are your, are your, what kind of wise guy are you associated with? Well, we got all kinds at the Action Network. We do have a couple guys who I'm sure have killed people. The long haul truckers and may or may not have killed people. I know this because they go by one name. Oh, God. And like, so they go by one name, but like, this guy also happens to have one time been, like, working in finance. And, like, for many years he had a private this is a great story he you love this he had a private twitter account and he would sort of talk about betting privately on twitter right and so people started to follow him and he would like talk about games and analyze and say i like this guy in a game whatever and you know gambling twitter is like

just insane so private twitter account because he didn't want his to the people at his job to find out who he was and like fire him for sort of talking about gambling so people started like asking to be to be his followers and he would approve him one by one and then eventually like you and I, our friend Scott Van Pelt, who knows a thing that you about gambling, he started following him. And then Big Cat at Barstool started following two guys who like gambling, love gambling, right?

All of a sudden, this guy got up to 23,000 followers on Twitter with a private account approving everybody one by one. But he was giving such great betting advice. So naturally, at the Action Network, we hired him. His name is Stucky. But then we also got guys who are like, you know, the hardcore data guys who are like DVOA, strength of schedule, SRS, like every acronym you can think of.

So, you know, we like all kinds. Okay, so I'm going to take, I'm going to pass, but my gut feeling is Jacksonville Plus 7 is what Stucky would like. Jacksonville Plus 7 absolutely is what Stucky would like. That is a no-brainer. And look, and by the way, we talk about this all the time on Collins' Sunday football show, right? Like, you got to bet the bad teams. And like, it was the Jags and the Browns every Sunday.

I tell you, I'm taking the Jags and the Browns, and you would give me a face that still to this day makes me laugh. It was like your eyes were popping out of your head because you couldn't believe I'd be doing it. I don't like that. You know why I don't do that? Because I hate having to root for crap. It's the world. I'd rather lose betting Russell Wilson than, you know, bet Oregon State plus 38 against Texas

A&M and have to sit there miserably. miserably and cling as they trail by 31 late. God, it's a terrible feeling watching a game. That is what's going to keep you from ever becoming a professional lifestyle. That and I don't kill people. Yeah, those two things. But you're so close. You could be so close.

Yeah. So everybody likes Jacksonville in this spot. Yeah. All right. Yeah, you've got to bet some bad teams. You know, my mom said this once about my dad. She said, you know, he's not really a quantity guy. He's more of a quality guy.

And I remember that as a kid. She said, you know, he has a couple suits, but he's never been. He doesn't like stuff. Your dad doesn't like stuff. So I just, you know what I do a lot of times, Chad? I'll hook on to about four teams in the NFL. And if they reward me early, I just stay on them. And I found that there's usually three or four teams that I put in the Blazing Five every week.

And I just have a feel for him. Did you have a team last year that you really felt clicked in? Miami Dolphins. I felt clipped in on the Miami Dolphins in weeks. Look, they got blown out in week one, right? They get killed by the Ravens. And then I think in the second or third week, they lost again to the Cowboys. But if you watch that game, they played really well in the first half.

And, like, they kept the competitive, but they didn't have enough talent. And, you know, Josh Rosen was the quarterback, right? And then in the third game, they were massive 17-point home underdogs to the Chargers. and through three quarters that game was tight and then the Chargers because they had more talent blew it out in the fourth game they decided to go to Ryan Fitzpatrick and I'm like I'm betting this team every game this season like I had seen them play I watched them on the red zone

because I am betting every game and I do flip around and I want to see like I'm okay seeing bad football and I thought this team's going to be great and like I was on them basically every week for the rest of the year because the market never caught up like they were like the Patriots were going on the road and they were 14, 15, 16. Underdogs. And, like, in the middle of the week,

you're seeing all these stories like historic road favorites against the Miami Dolphins, and that was just free money. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,

embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me. Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people

who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a job. dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do a little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at a podcast. I'm Sam Jett. And I'm Alex English.

Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. They're finishing that sentence.

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Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. All right, so what else we got here, Milman? Super Bowl? You want to talk any Super Bowl? Well, I mean, I always have this Super Bowl bubble. I think there's about eight teams in the league that are seriously Super Bowl teams.

Like the NBA has got about four championship teams. Baseball may have six. I'll give you my eight teams that I think are in the bubble. Can I do that? Yes. I'm going to write this down.

All right. And you just say check if you buy them. Baltimore. I buy it. Okay, check. Kansas City. Buy it.

San Francisco. I don't buy it. No, come back to that. New Orleans? Don't buy it. Oh, boy. Hold on. I don't buy Buffalo. Do you buy Buffalo? Don't buy Buffalo.

Okay. Hold on. Baltimore, Kansas City. Let me throw this at you. Philadelphia. I don't buy it. Seattle? Definitely don't buy it. Yeah, kind of that. Tampa Bay. I'd buy that.

See, there you go. So Baltimore, Kansas City, Tampa Bay are in. Let me think of one more. Hold on, hold on. What did you like? I know you don't buy into Houston, right? Like, they got too many holes. No.

Okay, so Houston. I did in the past. Like, you've named a couple teams that in the past, in New Orleans and Houston, that every year I would bet, like for the past three years, automatically. Okay. It was a no-brainer. Green Bay? Definitely not.

Minnesota. Yes. Oh, God. good hell. Are you going down? You have become this Minnesota nonsense. Mike Zimmer's too conservative and Kirk Cousins shrinks in big games. You, you, I can't, you betterers love Minnesota. I just don't trust them in big spots. Here's the thing. You're thinking about it the wrong way. You're thinking about only, and I know exactly where you're going to say it when I say it. You're thinking about only on the field. And I know you're going to say,

But that's where the game is playing. That's right. But here's what I'm telling you. But here's what I'm telling you. Like, I'm not going to bet Kansas City. I'm not going to bet Baltimore. Like, because I'm not going to, I might bet the bucks, but there's no value in betting those teams.

Like, you want to go for the teams where you can get, like, a little bit more for your money. You want your ROI to be bigger. If you're going to invest any kind of money in futures bets in August, you know, or July or whenever you decide to make your bets, and you're not going to get paid out until, February, you want to have like a little bit more of an ROI on that horizon, right? And so I want teams, I will never bet teams that are like three to one, five to one, seven to one to win the

Super Bowl. I want the teams that are anywhere from 15 to 40 to one. So I bet the Vikings. I bet the Steelers. Like last year, Mike Termlin did a miraculous coaching job and had a team that had a quarterback named Duck playing for a division three school behind center, and that team still competed every single week. He lost Labion Bell. He lost Antonio Brown. Then he lost his quarterback, and that team played incredibly well and still has a really good defense. So now I get better weapons on the offensive side of the ball, and I got a great defense, and I got really long odds on this team. So why wouldn't I make an investment in that? That's the kind of thing you want to look for before the Super Bowl betting.

Hmm. I don't buy Pittsburgh like you. Something about gamblers in Minnesota. Yeah, you guys all love Minnesota. I just think Mike Zimmer, he gets tight in big games, and Kurt gets tight in big games, and now no Stefan Diggs. They feel like they're a, they feel like they're Delvin Cook injury

from being very reliant on Kirk Cousins, and I don't like that at all. Let me ask you a question. So you went right by Buffalo, said you don't buy them. Buffalo's got a great defense. Buffalo has a quarterback that I think is making some people buy into the bill, at least to win their division. I'm not one of them. All right, but then you say they lost Defon Diggs.

Defon Diggs, who is a super caliber talent, goes to Buffalo. Yet that doesn't do enough to make them interesting to you. No, they're interesting, though, win their division. but I don't buy into Josh Allen. I think they, again, he's another guy like Sam Darnold. You put him up against Belichick. He's a disaster. It's a lot of fools gold.

It's that defense and that coaching staff, they revamped their old line, fools people. Then you look up and you need him in a big spot, and Josh Allen's terrible. By the way, he was a turnover machine at Wyoming. So, and I think the coaching staff in Buffalo is the most underrated coaching staff in the league. I think their defense last year ended up being about the best defense. It wasn't as showy as San Francisco's. You know, it didn't have the names. I thought Buffalo's defense last year was money.

And I think the coaching staff carried Josh Allen. And I don't buy, I think Buffalo and Minnesota are kind of the same, is that I think they can win 10 games, but the ceiling is low. Is that fair? That's totally fair. But then you got to tell me who you look at sort of in Super Bowl futures and say, all right, this is a team that is a little bit further down, but I could totally buy into Tampa Bay.

You know what worries me about Tampa Bay? They're kicking game. It's always a mess. It was a mess when I was there. But their defense is very good. We'll carry the team for six weeks. Last time Brady had even remotely decent weapons, he crushed. I don't think people realized the last three years, Tampa's offensive weapons were nothing.

Once Gronk was hit and miss physically, I think Brady's going to go in there, and I think they're going to light people up. I think Tampa is a really unheralded Super Bowl bet. Tampa's at 14 to 1. There's nothing unheralded about them. As soon as Brady signed with them, their odds were cut more than in half. They're 14 to 1. What about, let me give you teams that are between 20. and 30 to 1.

All right. Okay? And then you tell me if any of these appeal to you. The Eagles are at like 19 and a half. You can get them from a place. Yeah, they appeal to me.

I'll give you the Eagles. Yeah. The Colts? About 24, 25 to 1. I don't think you can have the least athletic quarterback in the NFL in 2020 and be a Super Bowl team.

Philadelphia absolutely appeals to me. I may go bet that today. Bill? You don't like? No. Steelers, you said you don't like. Like you if you don't like. You know, Steelers, I think they're going to lose. I think Cleveland's going to bite into them.

Baltimore's going to roll him twice. You know, the Big Ben's never been an off-season grinder. How do I know he's in any good shape? How do I know he's going to bounce back? I do like their front seven defensively. I think they're great. Really, really, really good. I think you would do yourself well by putting a little bit of a taste on a Steelers at 25 to 1.

because you're sending convinced there. Like what you like about them outweighs what you don't like about them, and you have more tangible evidence about what you like about them than sort of the speculation about what Big Ben was doing in the off-season. Give me the Vikings 25 to 1. You don't like it. Packers, about 26. Packers, you know, it's Aaron.

I think they have a good old line. Aaron's got protection. I think he's in a happy place. I think he's motivated by George. Gordon Love. I could throw a little money. And by the way, I bet $100 all the time. I'm a frugal man. I am a minimalist. I've never had a second car. I've had a lot of used cars. I'm a minimal. I don't bet a lot of money. What do you bet your average bet? I don't bet a lot of money at all. I did this, and I will tell you exactly. Last year, I bet every single NFL game. I remember that.

I did Project 256, right? I bet, I think we bet $50 on every single game. And so, you know, it was an initial investment that was like $800. My buddy and I each put in $400. So it was $800 each, or total, and we bet $50 in every game. We ended up doubling our money. I won my get a 57% clip, and you'll appreciate this. we went out for the most expensive sushi dinner we could to celebrate.

Like, let's not even save the money. Let's not, you know, go fix a washing machine. Let's, like, enjoy the fact we had this experience. We ordered so much sushi. We actually had to each spend, like, $500 extra on the dinner because we so overindulged. Didn't you and I have dinner in Miami? We did have dinner in Miami. We had a really nice dinner in Miami.

It was at the fountain blue, wasn't it? It was at the fountain blue, and yeah, it was like this really good. You can get everything there. We had sushi, but we also, I think, have, like, spare ribs, and then we had some insane dessert, but I think had some kind of mango or peach mousse. Oh, it was delicious. I am a man who likes eating. I really do.

My wife went vegan two years ago. What is your wife? Is she a very hyper-sensitive on diet? No, no, not at all. Thank God. She's not worried about that. I am more sensitive than she is like, I'll go through these stages where I won't eat carbs, I won't eat sugar, and then she's looking at me like, how's your bird seed? I know my wife is the same thing.

Like when we go out to dinner, she wants me to eat more. And I'm always like, listen, I weigh a buck 89. That's what I've weighed since college. And she's like, well, I'm eating more. And I'm like, you look fantastic. What do I care? She wants me to have mutton. And I'm like, I don't want to be tired and get home.

I want to come home. I want to come home and be actionable and, you know, amorous and actionable. And I can't do it if I got a pot roast in me. So I eat fish. I eat a cocktail, fish, little green. I'm out. I'm a, that's all I eat. Light, nibble, grazer.

I'm not a big meal guy like that. I just don't like to be full feeling. all I do all day is eat nuts. Maccadamia nuts, pastures, walnuts. Like, I've got a bowl that I'm snacking on right now. I'll go to Trader Joe's and buy like big bulk sizes. And then I make my own mixes and I'll eat them throughout the week. Yeah. My colon salutes me. I eat smoothies, fish, and nuts. It's nothing, nothing. It's just nothing but glorious times back there. So you and I are going to live to be a regular. Yeah, you and I are going to be a regular. Yeah, you and I are going to be a

live to be 140 and have all the Twitter followers, and the rest of these guys eating sausage sandwiches are dead in a week. By the way, tell me it doesn't sound like a nightmare to be 140 and have all the Twitter followers. Oh, my God. I'm going to crush Dave Portnoy on Twitter. I'm going to have more than him. Oh, my God. Okay, I got to get out of here, Millman.

All right, so. I got to go, too. Yeah, good talking you, buddy. All right, brother. Talk to you later. See you. That was awesome. That was so much fun.

It was so good. That was great. You got all the answers right. Yep. It was, you know, you were on all the wrong things. It was perfect. Thanks, buddy. We'll talk soon.

Bye. Oh, look at mine. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day, and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band

with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal

but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

This is a place for raw, unfilled of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. On the Look Back at a podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84's big to me. I'm Sam J.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. It was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.