The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Saturday Special - Colin chats with RJ Bell and Brad Powers

Episode Date: August 31, 2019

 With the first full weekend of College Football finally here Colin talks with RJ Bell and College Football Expert Brad Powers of Pregame.com.  They talk about teams that will suprise everyone in 2019, how good Clemson really is and how bad the Pac-12 could be in this exclusive podcast  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise,

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Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.

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What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season, and I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was harmed. you just understood.

That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Mark keep coming to her. He's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs.

This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, everybody. Welcome to our Saturday podcast. This is the first real week of college football. There's some tasty games here. And I thought I'd do what I do every year.

I not only bring the founder and the CEO of pregame.com, RJ Bell at RJ in Vegas on Twitter. But we bring in Brad Powers, who's the senior college football analyst for pregame.com. His Twitter account, by the way, is at Brad Powers 7. So guys, I think we all know Alabama's good and Clemson's good. We know George is good. And we always have a sense, you know, Texas, Oklahoma, we think, you know, Oregon, Utah, Washington. I want to start with a couple of things.

So in the NFL, when I bet, I often bet against the fans. I'm looking at a number and I'm going against the public momentum. In college football for people listening, I tend to take favorites in college football because like an SEC over time, I feel kind of like this weekend, I feel like Auburn over time will wear down an Oregon team that doesn't have much juice out of Austin Stadium. That's always been my theory in college football. I'd rather bet the favorite. Now that may be a bunch of total hooey that's probably already baked in.

But Brad, you're the expert on this stuff. It does feel like to me the favorites reward me more often in college than pro. Am I nuts? Yeah, so Colin, first off, Brad is the right guy. We're going to see why I sometimes sound smart at college football because Brad's feeding me the great stuff. I will say this, you are right. And the macro stuff is a strong suit of mine, the big picture, which is in the NFL, they want to win. In college football, they want to be.

be impressive. So oftentimes a team's up by 10, they're laying 12, two minutes left in the NFL, you want to be on the dog. In college, maybe not so much. I think the motivation for show points to style points is one of the drivers of favorites being better bets in college football than they are in the NFL. And Colin, the data to back that up agrees with you. If you just took a snippet, the best teams against the spread in college football the last 10 years, well, how about this. Three of the teams that are in the top, Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio State, all profitable against the spread long-term 10 years. And keep in mind, that's overcoming an expense on these teams. You're already paying a premium because they're so well-known. Everybody

wants to bet on these teams, the Clemsons, the Alabama's of the world, and yet they're still covering, Colin. I believe Clemson, because of their quarterback play, and because of their offensive line and skill people running back, has a chance to be an all-time great college team. Do the numbers lead that out, or am I overstating it? Maybe I'm just falling in love with Davo Sweeney, Brett Venable's the defensive coordinator and Trevor Lawrence at his receiving core. Is Alabama still the king here going into the season? It's a great question.

I think it's really close. Hold on a second, Colin. Listen, Brad is starting to, hey, the bright lights are on him. He's been on Fox Sports Radio every day saying Alabama is slightly better than Clemson. So first off, true or false, you've been saying that coast to coast. Yes, okay. But now Colin Cowherds on the line, it's like, oh, it might be close. Because remember, Colin said Clemson might be one of the, or the best team ever, right? Colin?

Well, I think they have the best quarterback in college I've seen since Elway. I think their offensive lines better than Alabama. They have a star receiver, though Obama does, and a great running back. And I love their, I like their coaching stability and their staff as a whole. I thought Alabama got out coached in the national. championship game. But again, what do the numbers say, Brad, if you line up coach, staff, backs, D-line? Alabama still slightly better. But here's my caveat, despite what R.J. saying here, I've been saying coast to coast, and I've been very confident saying, hey,

Alabama is still slightly better than Clemson. But here's a key injury. Just happened to Alabama less than 24 hours ago. They're starting middle linebacker, Dylan Moses, preseason first team all-American. Yes. He's in the top 15 overall. draft boards and Alabama, if you look at their defenses under Nick Saban, they've always had that alpha at linebacker, Dante Hightower, the Rolando McClain's. And now, Colin, now they're going to be starting two. That's right, two true freshmen at linebacker because they already suffered an injury at linebacker earlier this year.

Wow, that's a thing. Now, Brad, that's a real thing because I think the strength of their team this year at Alabama, two is obviously great, but I like their front seven. I think that's the strength of their team this year. Yeah, and the expectation was. was, hey, Alabama's defense slipped a little last year. The expectation why I thought Alabama was still slightly better than Clemson was on the defensive side of the ball.

And here's the thing to think about, Colin, in the NFL every week for years, we've been talking about cluster injuries, where one injury, yeah, it's not so good, but the second injury, now you've got two inexperienced players. So to me, there was another linebacker injury, right? Joshua McMillan. So now two true freshmen, who's calling the defense, right? Who's the quarterback? Major question.

And I think early in the season, you know if it's an Alabama recruit, they're mighty good. Yep. But early in the season, that inexperience might show, I think. So if they played today, what would be the line? I think it'd be close to pick them. Well, hold on. You think it should be pick them. That bet's in Vegas right now.

It is. And right now, Colin, Clemson's a two-point favor. You can bet that if these two match up in the playoffs or a national championship game, Clemson is a two-point favor. And keep in mind, Colin, in the last 11 years, Alabama's only. been an underdog in one game out of their last 127. How is Dabo Sweeney against the spread and overall? How does he treat Vegas gamblers?

Yeah. And by the way, make sure because the season is good or the all games are pretty good, Colin, but him, Dabo and the bowl games is mind-blowing. So overall, he's really made a big step up the last seven years. 57% against the spread if you're just blindly betting on Clemson in the last seven years. But like RJ said, this is remarkable. So in postseason action in those last seven years, we're talking bowl games and playoff games and national championship games. There's been 10 of them.

And Vegas says, hey, Dabo and Clemson, you're an underdog. You're supposed to lose nine of these 10 games. And what has Dabo done? He's won eight of those games straight up despite being an underdog in nine of them. I mean, think about that a second. So there's 10 games. Vegas by the spread is saying who's supposed to win. Nine times he's saying that Davo supposed to or Vegas is saying Dabo's supposed to lose.

and literally he wins or eight of them. I mean, as an underdog to win that much, that's probably the best coaching we've ever seen over a seven-year period in the postseason. And one last thing. And Brad can give the specifics.

If you look at recruiting for Clemson, now when does recruiting matter? Usually year two, three, and four, right? When they're sophomores, juniors, if you go back to last year's national championship game, obviously seniors, juniors mattered the most for Clemson. When those players were recruited, Clemson was getting what, maybe 20th best recruiting class. Yeah, right around like 15th best recruiting class.

And for this upcoming year, they're projected to be. Yeah, right now, and I know you follow this, Colin. Clemson's recruiting class for this upcoming season is supposed to be one of the best in the history of college football. So this guy literally is winning national championships with top 20 team talent. And now he's getting to the stage where he's getting top five and beyond. This might be, you know, you might be ahead of yourself, Colin. I think Clemson's teams in the next couple years could be some of the best ever. My guess would be this year's team.

No matter what happens at Clemson won't be as good as next year's team. Trevor and Lawrence will be back. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending. Opinions are flying. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in.

I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered.

Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 and the TikTok podcast. network on TikTok. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games.

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This linebacker walks up to me, he goes, Hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue with 42. Hey, ref, my mama want you to wave at her. What? Hey, Miss Parker.

Listen to the Cliverts show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. American Soccer is about to explode. The World Cup is coming. Ramos sending on the Army Stewart of the chip. I'm Tad Ramos. I'm Tom Bo. On our podcast, Inside American Soccer,

you'll get the real storylines. I'm not worried about Polic. I'm not worried about Balligan. I'm not worried about McKinney. My only concern is what happens in the back. The biggest decisions. If you're going to look at stats and numbers, he has no shot at making this World Cup team.

And the truth about the U.S. national team. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if our team ends up in the quarterfinals or potentially a great run into the semifinals. The World Cup is almost here. Experience it all with us. Listen, Inside American Soccer with Tom Bogart and Tab Ramos on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast.

Jay Bell, founder, CEO, pregame.com, and Brad Powers, his college football analyst for pregame senior, knows his stuff at Brad Power 7. Okay, let's go. I want you, Brad, to give me the two most, give me your top two, your two most improved teams, teams that were kind of lousy last year, because I see your list here. One of them I really buy into, number one, I really buy into, number two, it's a wait and see. But give my audience, Brad, your top two most impressive. teams. That's where fans can get a little ahead of the curve. If you go to pregame and listen to Brad, because sometimes it takes Vegas and the rest of the country to figure this stuff out. It takes a few weeks.

Give me your top two most improved teams. Yeah, we'll start off with the most improved team. It's Nebraska, who actually, Colin, started to show major improvement at the end of last season. Yes, yes. I totally buy this. Yes, they did. Yeah, so they start off 0 and 6. First time Nebraska's ever started off 0 and 6 in school history. But if you take the last six games, a team went four and two straight up. A couple of those losses, including a very close loss in Columbus against the Buckeyes. They were much

improved on the offensive side of the ball. And if you're looking for kind of a sleeper, if you want to sound smart around the water cooler, Adrian Martinez, their quarterback is legit. A true freshman starter for him a year ago. I think he's one of the better young quarterbacks in the entire country. He had he threw for a lot of yards.

Scott Frost, by the way, is not one of these coaches. He's got a little Urban Meyer. He turned stuff around quickly. You know, a lot of these guys, people forget it took Nick Saban four or five years at Michigan State to really get them to be more formidable. Nick Saban, I think it was year three at LSU. I think it was year three, he lost four games. Nick's not a quick turnaround artist.

Even at Alabama, year two, he got smoked by Utah. Scott Frost is like Urban. He can move the needle very quickly. Now, your second most improved team, I wish I knew more about them at quarterback. I don't know. You've got UCLA. And I'm fascinated because I think the PAC 12 Brad could really use an L.A. school that's exciting and dynamic. What do you see with the Bruins in terms of improvement?

Well, started to see a lot of improvement at the end of last season, Colin. I know a lot of people, the East Coast bias, they weren't paying attention to UCLA after that poor start. But if you look at their offensive production, I know there's this narrative out here. Maybe the game has slightly passed Chip Kelly by. But in their last four games against some of the best competition UCLA faced all six. season. I'm talking to Oregon, USC Stanford. That offense was averaging nearly 500 yards per game with a quarterback in Wilton Spate. That wasn't Taylor made for the Chip Kelly offense. UCLA this year, the most experienced team in the country, 19 returning starters. I love

their running back Joshua Kelly. Yeah, yeah, he's good. And Dorian Thompson, you know, got some time last year as a true freshman. I liked what I saw from him out of the spring. Yeah, by the way, my daughter went to school with him at Bishop Gorman and said he was one of the most well-like people in campus. She said, Dad, like people really gravitated to him. I met him about a year ago. So this I know about him. He's got some leadership skills.

People like him. People gravitate to him. And by the way, Chip Kelly's quarterbacks guys, they're usually pretty good. I mean, he takes them to, you know, Marcus Mariota. Every Oregon quarterback was good under Chip Kelly. So, Colin, UCLA last year falls into a situation that is probably as consistent as any year after your year in college, which is, if you have a new coach coming in and there's a schematic change that's major, usually there's optimism because it's a bigger name and coaches don't

come in unless the team's struggling usually. So it's like, oh, this is the next generation, turn the page. They start slow. Why? They didn't recruit the players from the prior coach for the new system, right? Brad, you said it, Chip Kelly, that quarterback, he's not the type of quarterback. Yeah. Well, once Chip Kelly gets his quarterback, how much better are they going to?

going to be. And even though within the first year, you see an evolution. If all you did, Colin, was bet against first year coaches the first four games and bet on them the last four, you'd probably win money because people are excited, they get disappointed. And then later, once they're disappointed, there's value. And that's when the team covers. One team this year really fits the criteria. Georgia Tech ran the option for a long, long, long time. Now Jeff Collins is in, he's not running the option, at least consistently, the fact they're going to still run some of it, I think tells you how tough it is to transition. I think Georgia Tech is a fade, not every game blind, but look to fade him early in the year.

RJ Bell and Brad Powers, Brad, the senior college football analyst for pregame.com. Twitter follow is at Brad Power 7. All right, some really tasty things here for our audience on Saturday morning. I love this stuff. You're saying, Brad, be very very. careful on the Notre Dame hype. You spotted something in their schedule. Very unique. And Notre Dame is going to be at a major disadvantage when it comes to extra time to prep against Notre Dame.

I've never seen this. The only other time I've seen this many teams have a buy prior to Notre Dame. Seven teams have a buy prior to facing the Iors. And good team. USC's got a buy. That's a rivalry game. Boston College has a buy. These are rivalry games.

Virginia Tech. And even the teams that don't have a buy me, Georgia plays Arkansas State prior. Virginia is going to be improved. They only play Old Dominion prior. The only other team in college football in the last decade that's had this many buys facing against them. Alabama in 2010. And if you take a snapshot of Alabama's seasons the last 12 years, there's only one where Alabama lost three games in. It was 2010 when they were at a scheduling disadvantage.

Yeah, no, it matters, guys. it always has in college. Okay, Brad and RJ, give everybody a surprise team. And this team's interesting. They're not very dynamic offensively. I think they're well coached, put a lot of guys in the NFL,

but they had a little issue with health last year. Your surprise team, Brad, is Michigan State. It's a team that's not going to get a lot of publicity. Why? They're in the same division as Ohio State and Michigan. But keep in mind, just a couple years ago, Michigan State had a run, a six-year run, they won double digits in five out of six seasons, 10 wins or more.

This year's team, 17 returning starters. And the reason the struggles on offense, a lot of people are blaming the play calling, well, I mean, they had nine different starting offensive line combinations. Their quarterback, Brian Lewerke, I mean, he's not great, but he's certainly above average when he's healthy. He was dealing with a shoulder injury. And I don't think Michigan State gets enough credit. Defense of Front seven among the best in college football, all four starters back on

the defensive line. Keep an eye out on Michigan State. So question. Big Ten is probably the last conference that the spread offense isn't just pervasive. Right. On Michigan State, Brad, it feels like when they played their biggest games that people start paying attention, they get, they're just not as athletic as those teams. And sometimes they get run off the field. Do you feel like that Michigan State's ready for the spread offenses of the faster teams, even the Ohio States, in, in common? or do you feel like, hey, look to play them when they're playing their competition,

but don't be so anxious if they're playing in a high state, let's say, that physically is so much better? It's a complicated question, RJ. And I think a lot. Yeah, I know. And so here's where I found with Michigan State. And there's kind of a, it's similar to what you're trying to describe here. Michigan State's always better in that underdog role.

Here's a team that actually has a winning record. If you look at you blindly play on them in the underdog role the last seven years. Well, one you don't want to play on Michigan State is when they're expected to get significant margin. They have failed to cover the point spread the last 10 times when they've been laying three touchdowns or one. They're doing so in a week one. You know what? And I think that's a lot. The coach's personality, he's grumpy.

He is a conservative coach by nature. So when he's favored, he plays down, but they play with a complete chip on their shoulder when they're a big dog. I think sometimes teams become. the personality of their coach. He's a conservative guy with a chip on his shoulder. And I think to some degree, that explains why they're so good with points. And we see it specifically when they have that chip on their shoulder in the rivalry game against Michigan.

I mean, they've actually won nine of the last 11 seasons against Michigan. So if anything, it's the opposite of my instinct. I just see them lose a lot of games because if you're just a casual fan, you're saying they're playing those games closer than is expected. Yep. Okay, so let's move to Michigan from there. Now, I do think this is the best O-line Jim Harbaugh's had, and I think Shea Patterson, little Johnny Mansell, little loose for my taste, but it is his second year. They're rebuilding the defense, but Don Brown's a good coach. They've got some people that aren't national names yet, but they're pretty tasty on the perimeter offensively. They've got a couple nice receivers. My feeling is when you look at their schedule, Brad, how many games is Michigan favored in? This should be the year. should be Michigan's favorite, Colin, in all 12 games. Wow. You mentioned the schedule.

It's about getting their three key rivals all at home this year, Notre Dame, Michigan State. And of course, the big one to finish the season at Ohio State right now, even though with all the Michigan's troubles against the Buckeyes, the last 15 years. All the blah, blah, blah, blah about horrible. As an Ohio State grad, I must say, full disclosure. Michigan right now, Colin's a favorite over Ohio State, a three point. But only three. Only three.

Now think about this. Home field for Michigan in a big game is what, three and a half? Yeah, three and a half. So literally, even this year, the Buckeyes are considered right now to be the better team. I want to throw kind of a macro topic at you. I'm a college football fan. I always have been. I have scaled back my coverage the previous two years because I think it's become too southern and a little bit too insular.

Now, this year, I think Texas makes it, I think Washington, Oregon, Utah, Texas, broaden it out. but do you think Southern dominance has in recent years been bad for college football? I do. I agree with you. I think the lack of parity has led to attendance being down, TV ratings being down. And if you just look, I did a little bit of research on this. If you look at the most watched college football games since 1991, this is amazing. Top eight games.

Only two of the 16 teams in those eight games have been from the SEC. So how many has been in the last 10 years? Have these been recent games? Or are we talking about the boy date? Yeah, Ohio State Oregon. The one SEC team, Alabama, Texas was in there. Texas, Ohio State are the teams that are often the most watch. And I think, Colin, the real danger is when, and let's talk about the Pact 12,

because you mentioned Oregon potentially. There was recently a poll of college football experts. Who's going to make the playoffs in only one of the, what was there, six experts maybe? Seven. Seven experts. Only one picked any team from the Pack 12 to even make the playoffs. So if you got a whole conference, you're thinking, oh, no matter how well we do, we probably aren't one of the four best teams.

Now, how interested are the fans? What's the NFL done? They've made it where pretty much every team every year has a shot. It doesn't feel like that in college football. Last night, a blown call changed the game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in.

I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered.

Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations. with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark.

Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross.

Because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff.

Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker walks up to me, he goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue 42. Hey, rec, my mama want you to wave at her. What? Where's she at?

Hey, Ms. Parker. Listen to the Cliverts show on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. American soccer is about to explode. The World Cup is coming. sending on to Ernie Stewart the chip. I'm Tad Ramos. I'm Tom Boe. On our podcast, Inside American Soccer, you'll get the real storylines. I'm not worried about Policic. I'm not worried about balligan.

I'm not worried about McKinney. My only concern is what happens in the back. The biggest decisions. If you're going to look at stats and numbers, he has no shot at making this World Cup team. And the truth about the U.S. national team. It wouldn't be a huge surprise. if our team ends up in the quarterfinals or potentially a great run into the semifinals. The World Cup is almost here.

Experience it all with us. Listen, Inside American Soccer with Tom Bogart and Tab Ramos on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast. So finally, Brad Powers at Brad Power 7 and RJ Bell, this weekend's the big college football kickoff. Florida, Miami was kind of a tire fire, but it was wildly entertaining. So I have had, I do, as I said before, when I bet the NFL, I really bet against the public. In college football, I tend to like the favorites, which you guys said earlier. You know, the analytics say favorites tend to cover more in college football. But here's where I do bet against the fans in college football.

I think I usually bet against USC. Now, I'm not in the opening week because I think Fresno State has to replace eight offensive starters. They're very young, interior line. And I think USC strength defensively is the interior. of their defensive line. So I like USC. But I generally bet against USC because I think a lot of L.A. money, you know, it's just unbridled enthusiasm.

Whereas I bet Wisconsin a lot because they win, but they're overshadowed in terms of glamour by Michigan and an Ohio state. So give me, is that just random or is there, are there teams that have been good to bet for and bet against? First off, Colin, your USC take is so sharp. And here's the reason. Not only one of the most popular teams in the country, but the geographic proximity to Las Vegas means on the weekend,

they're driving in the fans in L.A. And they're betting the Trojans. So I think Notre Dame, you can make the list of, hey, these are the teams. If you were sitting at a random airport, you're going to see their jerseys. That's usually the measure of, are they expensive? I think any L.A. team, it's even,

more the case because it's so close to Vegas. And the data to back that up, Colin, USC against the spread, one of the worst teams in the country last 10 years. They're covering less than 40% of the time. Wow. So again, glam. People tend to bet glamour because most bettors are not sharp. They're casual.

And USC's a big brand. Now, again, now let's go conversely, there are teams that are good. And I've always felt Wisconsin is overshadowed in the Big Ten. I mean, God, they don't lose bowl games. games. They go to the Rose Bowl. They win it. But they're boring. And so I've always been kind of bet Wisconsin. Are there teams last decade opposite of USC that are good bets? Again, you're right on the money, Colin. Wisconsin, one of the best teams against the spread last decade where they've covered nearly 60% of all their games. And very similar, at least style of play the last decade,

Stanford out of the Pack 12. Not a sexy name like UCLA or USC, but similar style of football, a little boring, but very profitable. Now, think about this, though. What does Wisconsin and Stanford, especially historically, have in common? Very physical, big offensive lines, and then in the fourth quarter, grind you down.

They get that margin. Because a team like that, you don't want them necessarily laying 30, but if they're laying 17, how many times have they been up by 10 entering the fourth, but they win by 20? Yeah. So I think it's really a matter.

And that's something Colin is the whole country gets more sophisticated with betting is a lot of people, the Sharps in Vegas, they won't bet the whole game. They'll say first half, second half. And look at, for example, Alabama, last year had one of the most amazing streaks we've ever seen in the first half. Yeah, Alabama started this season, Colin, 10 and 0 in the first half against the spread. So when they were competitive, when they were letting to a throw, they were exceeding expectations, Bama. In the second half, Saban took the air out of the ball, and they didn't, cover as many games as you might think, but they always, or for 10 in a row, had a bigger lead

than expected at halftime. Okay. And finally, I want to go to a program. My gut feeling is, guys, they're a year away. But I, there's something about Texas. Now, maybe it's because Georgia didn't want to be in that bowl game and Texas was playing to prove they belong in the elite. So Texas really pounded Georgia, really outplayed him.

I mean, the first half, it was like Georgia didn't want to be there and it was Texas biggest game in a decade. But let's just zero in on Tom Herman. He was at Ohio State, now at Texas. If I'm just a better on Texas, now it's a glamour program. So I'm listening to you guys and I'm thinking, bet against Texas, bet against Texas. But Herman's a guy, not always well liked. He feels like a poured on guy.

He'll just keep the pedal on. If I'm a better, do we have any numbers and any history on Tom Herman that can help me? We do, and it's very disparate here. You want to bet actually against Tom Herman when he's a favorite. And his coaching career, Houston and Texas, he's only covered 39% of the time in the favorite role. When you want to bet on Tom Herman is actually as an underdog, even going back to his days when he's the OC at Ohio State and Iowa State. But as a head coach, he's covered in the underdog role 87% of his games. And think about it, Herman, very emotionally driven.

I mean, think about the coaches who do well as underdogs. It's usually the Tomlin types where they're very raw, raw. They'll get a team up for that game. Maybe when they're favored by 14, you can't really dig that deep for the emotion. Well, yeah. They underperform. To RJ's point, Brad, and you may have stuff on this, if I remember Tom Herman at Houston, they, I mean, it obviously, he got noticed, but they were kind of inconsistent.

They would pull off huge upsets. And then they lost to somebody when he was at Houston, a dog. Yeah, and what happened is the year coming off of that 13-1 season, they beat Florida State, a lot of expectations. So what does what does Houston do in the season opener? They beat outright upset Oklahoma and Baker-Mayfield. Everyone's, you know, obviously given a lot of publicity, Tom Herman's, you know, great coach. But what happens later in the year, he's losing outright to teams like Navy, SMU.

That's right. SMU. They lost to SMU and Navy. But, Brad, I told you, whatever we do in this pod, do not give call, in any anti-Baker ammunition. I mean, you just couldn't help yourself. Okay. The pride of Youngstown, Ohio, RJ Bell.

And Brad, where are you from, by the way? Outside Toledo, Ohio. We only hire Ohio people, we call it. Or Pittsburgh, that's fine. Okay. Guys, great. Folks, if you're listening, you know RJ, obviously. Brad's terrific on his college football stuff.

Follow him at Brad Powers 7. RJ is at RJ in Vegas. So fired up. I don't even want you to respond to this. because I don't want you, you know, I want people to go to your site and stuff. I'm taking Auburn to cover. Oregon can't prove to me they can win away from Otson. I'm taking Northwestern in the points.

I can't wait to watch the quarterback that transferred from Clemson, and they were good on the road last year. And I'm taking USC to cover because I think Fresno is well coached, but will be a little overmaned in week one, too many new starters. Don't respond. Go to their site. Well, one of those is a sure loss. Follow me on Twitter.

I'll tell you which one. And I didn't want to hear that. It's for Labor Day weekend. I have a cold as it is. All right, good talking to you guys. Thank you. Thank you. Last night, a blown call changed a game.

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