The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Scouting the positives over negatives; Rockstar Browns; Inside private pre-draft workouts

Episode Date: April 2, 2019

Subscribe here to the 3 and Out with John Middlekauff Podcast https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/3-and-out-with-john-middlekauff/id1352730623?mt=2.  In this episode, Middlekauff explains why focusing on the positive in draft prospects is more beneficial than just pointing out flaws, why the Browns are the new rockstars of the NFL, the goal of  private pre-draft workouts, and answers listener questions in Middlekauff's Mailbag. Follow John on twitter @JohnMiddlekauff and go to www.theherdnow.com to find the latest content. Subscribe now! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Another week, more football talk. I think we are three weeks and four days officially away from the NFL draft because the draft starts on a Thursday. So we got three full weeks. and then four days. So it's right around the corner. We can't quite taste it yet, but we're coming down the home stretch here.

I was watching Path to the Draft a little earlier with Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brook. So it's an exciting time of year. Some stuff going on. I think something was Zion, the Duke basketball player, just the way we talk about them on social media, something I used to do in scouting circles,

and I've tried to do now in more business that I think translates, a lot to the NFL draft. I watched the O'Dell Beckham press conference today. Let's call it what it is. The Browns are kind of rock stars right now. Some thoughts on them. Kyler Murray worked out today for John Gruden.

Mike Mayock was there. What does that mean? I've been apart, not as many, I've been apart of a lot of pro days. And just kind of talk about the process a little bit. But starting with Zion, one thing I've tried to do as I've run this little small business. I got another podcast. I do Periscope and YouTube shows that I'm selling is just, you know, I'm not a huge self-help book guy, but, you know, I'll listen to some podcasts and stuff like Tony Robbins and Gary V and just different guys occasionally. You know,

if I get a little sported out. And one thing I heard, I don't know who to credit for this, but this has been a longstanding kind of motto for a lot of people is people spend too much time be good at too many things. I think this works in sports, works in business, whatever. Just focus on a couple things that you're really good at. Like if you're a good salesperson, just worry about selling. Don't worry about the books. You know, don't worry about trying to be organized or whatever. Just sell. If you're, I'm going through it right now. I hopefully get to a point where I pay my accountant, but I still kind of have to keep my own books and I just hate it. I despise it. and I'm not that good at it because I'm not really an organized human.

I only do a couple things well. I can talk depending on who you ask, and that's what pays my bills and has paid my bills for a long time. And I can talk about sports. It's like one of the only things I know. So I really, when people ask me like, how did you get into this? Well, I really had no choice. I don't do anything else well.

And I've luckily been able to sell my stuff because I'm basically just selling myself. I couldn't sell someone else's product. but just be you know instead of trying to be a B or a C at 10 different things just be an A at like two or three things and I think too often when we get into scouting we nitpick the things you're not good at and no different in life right and back to what I said if you're really good salesperson I don't give a shit if I run a business that you're not that organized just sell like watching Zion oh you can't shoot all like we spend too much time talking about what he can't do I know what he can't do. You don't have to be Coach Kay or John Wooden to realize he's

a pretty special prospect. It's going to be hard for him to fail. Does he have some flaws? I don't think God's ever made the perfect player. In basketball, in baseball, in football, in anything. In anything. So when we get closer

to the draft, we spend so much time, and I am just as guilty as anyone. And I was probably more of a more negative scouter than I was a positive guy. I liked less guys than I hated. And I think a lot of scouts are like that naturally. A lot of front offices, it's easy to be negative.

Like, you start thinking, I still get like this. This guy stinks. This guy stinks. Again, all relative to the NFL level. When we look at the draft and you see Nick Bosa or Quinn and Williams, we don't spend enough time on talking about what they can do well. All I hear was Zion is, he can't shoot. I don't care.

He's the best athlete on the court. He plays incredibly hard. and what he does in this day and age translates to 2019. I might not have translated to 2000. Like he couldn't guard Shaq. Shaq's not in the league. He couldn't have guard David Robinson or Patrick Ewing. They're not around.

You know, some of these players in football, we always talk, ah, this guy can't do this, the guy can't do that. Well, yeah, maybe that would have really mattered at a different time. I don't know if it matters as much. One thing that always was a pet peeve of me in scouting, like he can't a linebacker, he can't stack and shed, He can't stack and shed. Those days are over.

Can the guy run sideline to sideline and cover? That's why I love Devin Bush and Devin White, because both of them are modern-day linebackers. Just like if you like Bosa. And I was texting with someone in the league and someone in the media actually too this weekend. It was like, you know, you can knock him. He's not a great athlete. But as the person wrote back to me,

he's just an instinctive natural pass rusher. And as Jim Washburn taught me when I was in Philly, and it was best wisdom, the two most older coaches that I was around that were full of more wisdom than anyone, were Jim Washburn and Howard Mudd. And Howard Mudd was saying, this was back in 2010 or in 11, we make too big of deal over left and right tackles. He'd always say, what the hell is the difference?

He's like, when I was with the Colts with Peyton Manning, you want to block Robert Mathis or you want to block Dwight Freeman and more than ever now, Khalil Max, Avon Miller's, those guys line up over your right tackle. Your right tackle better be good. And I think the same thing can be said and Jim Washburn used to

always say and he was big on this. You either sack the quarterback or you don't. It's just kind of a skill. He's like there's so many guys and he was such a good evaluator. He was the one that loved Fletcher Cox over Don Terry Poe and Brockers. And his thought

was like you either get there or you don't. And certain guys that don't get there, they consistently and usually never get there. And I've been a little hard on Nick Bost and I was kind of hard on Joey, but both of them just have instincts. They just get it done. You know, they're just,

they were born to rush the pastor. And I think there are some of that with Quinn and Williams. I think there's some of that with Josh Allen. I think there's some of that with all these guys. So to me, like Rashon Gary, is someone getting nitpicked right now? Because I think he has 10 and a half sacks in three years. I'm going to throw on the film if I'm a GM because he's probably going to go in the top 10.

I better know what he does well. Because we all know what he doesn't do well. He doesn't play that hard. Picks his spots. He's not that productive. So if I am going to draft him, like he's on the opposite, what does he do really well? And I think some people would say, well, he's really more of a projection of what you think he can do well. I might stay away. Like, I know Josh Allen can get to the quarterback. He had 17 sacks. I know Bosa when he's on the field dominates. Same with Quinn and Williams, dominant. I know what they do well. I know what Devin Bush does well. I know what Devin White does well, right? I know what certain these guys that are all going to get drafted. I know what Kyler Murray does really well. I know what Haskins does really well. Now again, in these draft

rooms, and I think us in the media, we're constantly, oh, this guy doesn't do that well. This guy doesn't, you know one guy that's kind of grown on me? Russell Westbrook in the NBA. He's pretty flawed. He's having a rough year. But he does some things pretty well. He plays really hard, and he's a pretty electric, still at this point in time, unguarable athlete. And I think we spend too much time talking about what they don't do well, and you miss players, and you don't draft a guy because you get caught up on,

you know, he's just not quite fast enough. Well, there's been a lot of non-fast wide receivers that have produced. Does he make contested catches? Does he get the job done in press coverage? Does he get the ball? you know, does he high point the ball well? And I think there's a lot of guys in this draft that aren't the fastest players, but they're big and physical guys.

Like Akeem Butler, Nikiel Harry, A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf. Trying to stack those guys, I think it's so easy to, and most draft rooms are doing this, well, this guy can't do this, this guy can't do that. Instead of like, what of these four or five guys, who's the best at their individual best skill? That's how I might look at it. And I think sometimes you've got to think outside the ball.

when a lot of guys are clumped and grouped really close together. It's also hard. I mean, Zion's a little bit different because he's only 19. A lot of these guys are 21, 22, 23 years old. At 23 at max, a lot of these juniors are 20 and 21. There is a projection because you go, well, we got better coaches than they had in college. The things that he does not do well, is it correctable? And that's a huge element.

I think this works in most industries. What your education is is so overrated. To me, it's about how hard are you going to work, how persistent are you, just, I mean, are you going to be relentless in whatever? Because if I run a company, if I'm in Wall Street, if I'm in tech, I'm going to teach you what you need to know about that individual industry. I didn't know anything about scouting before I got to Pat Hill. He taught me everything. And then I got to the NFL with my base of knowledge that I learned from Pat Hill and Fresno State. And I built on that.

But like, I was able to do it because I worked really hard on it. Like anyone that's been watching sports could figure out how to scout probably in any of the three major sports if you go to the right place that teaches you what to do. I mean, look at Belichick. He's famous for it.

He gets high intelligence, hard workers. And then he just teaches them how to do what he wants them to do. Whether it's Nick Casario, Scott Piole, Josh McDaniels, Brian Flores, whoever. They didn't show up to Belichick knowing that much about football

relative to what they ended up learning. So I think you have to look at prospects like that. Who has the highest upside, but who already brings something to the table? And I think that gets very difficult this time of year. And I think that's why we consistently, because every time I start thinking about the draft, we start looking at these mock drafts, you go, I can see that going there. I can see that happening there. And then when the draft's over, especially the first night, you're like, damn,

who would have saw those seven players going to those places? It happens every year. And some of them are major flops because I think teams overthink it. team's dock guys for the wrong reasons. Look at last year. How on God's Green Earth did Derwin James fall to 17? How's that even possible? I'll tell you why, because it's easy to overlook the things that he struggled with

or the reasons he didn't produce. In just looking at, you know what that guy is? This guy is the modern-day safety. This guy's athleticism and ability to shadow tight ends and ability to run sideline to sideline is elite for this league. Now, some of the things he doesn't do well, you know what, the things he doesn't do well, don't ask him to do those things. Don't ask me to be your accountant. I can't, I don't know anything.

That's why I pay my guy in downtown San Francisco a lot of money to do. I actually still have to do some of my books, but to then give to him to figure out because I don't know what to do. Whatever you do, do it well and focus on that. And when you're looking at these players, don't get so caught up in the negatives. because I think sometimes there are a lot of players with flaws that end up in the Hall of Fame and Pro Bowls and on championship level teams every year. Okay, let's get into the Browns

and the press conference that went down today with O'Dell Beckham and I was talking about it earlier today on my other podcast, Hey, Remedlckoff, that it almost felt like an NBA press conference or definitely one you'd see in college basketball like over the years when Coach Cal has like six or seven guys all GoPro at the same time. There were four guys up on the podium, on the stage. It was Baker Mayfield, O'Dell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and Miles Garrett.

And it was just pretty cool. I mean, I watched all 30 minutes of it, and I was saying this earlier, and thinking this earlier, is if you just watch Antonio Brown's press conference with the Raiders and O'Dell Beckham Jr.'s Press Conference with the Browns, you'd be like, God, I love these two guys. Who would trade? you're telling me those two towns who would trade those guys now I think you always got to be careful with introductory press conferences it's basically the honeymoon stage right I mean if you're fighting or sex isn't good in your honeymoon you're probably in for a long marriage so the honeymoon stage

and the press conference whenever you hire a new coach whenever you trade for a sweet new player there's never been a press conference after you just draft your first rounder that's bad right It's always going to be positive because it's surrounding it. But this did feel a little different. They threw their two former number one overall picks, one's the quarterback, the other, and God Miles Garrett is massive, the defensive end, both up on the stage. And then Jarvis Landry, one of the best slot receivers in the league, who happens to be Odell's best friend, also sitting up there.

It was pretty unique. Usually you don't see it quite happen like this. And I've been thinking this for a while. I've talked about it on this podcast before. The pressure on this group of guys, and they kept getting asked about that, and they tried to downplay it. You know, it's not one on paper.

It's going to be beyond a mess. And I saw some people on Twitter, and I think this is, it's kind of been a running joke. You know, the dream team was great on paper. This, to me, is a lot different than the quote-unquote dream team in Philadelphia. I was there. The players we acquired were older.

Nomdi Austin Wall was older than 30. Jason Babin, I'm pretty sure, was older than 30. I don't know if Ronnie Brown was quite 30 yet, but in running back years, he was old. This group, I just Googled them all, Odell and Jarvis, who are the same age and best friends, are 26 years old. The other two, Miles and Baker, are 23 years old. This is not an older team. Now, the difference is on that team is Michael Vic was a pretty big wild card and got injured. So, where obviously you depend on Baker to be healthy,

but the other big wild card on that team was, Coach Reed's a pretty damn good coach, and he couldn't quite figure it out. Let's safe to say, Freddie Kitchens ain't Andy Reed. So the pressure on Freddy Kitchens, like the pressure on the main teams, the Cowboys, the Eagles, are always really high. The Steelers, you know, on the teams with the top quarterbacks

or the Cowboys, or just, the Patriots, you know, anything less for a small group of teams like the AFC or NFC championship game is viewed as a bust. But they had a great stat today on NFL Network. In the last 30 years, 30 years, the Browns have had two winning seasons. So when you look at the division and you go, say what you want about the Bengals, for the last like 15 years, they had winning seasons like 9 or 10 of them. They made the playoffs a lot with Marvin Lewis.

Steelers and the Ravens, their two resumes speak for themselves. I get these teams on paper are down a little bit, but to think that it's like, it's almost like where I live, these tech companies, they come out of nowhere and they're just massive overnight. It does take some time. Like Lyft, the IPO just happened, I think, Friday. I don't know if you Google what year Lyft came around,

but it wasn't like last year, right? Uber, these companies now have they, around five, six, seven years. This group is all coming together basically overnight with a brand new coach. But they're viewed as like there are going to be some overnight sensation. It'd be the equivalent in the tech business. Like, boom, all of a sudden, Instagram's Instagram. Well, Google Instagram.

It started a long time before Facebook bought it. It was around for how many years now? Ten? It didn't just, I mean, it's been really big the last five or six years, but it was around a long time before that. Like this group of Brown's players, Jarvis and Baker, they've been on the team one year. Miles Garrett has been there. This is going to be his what? His third year. And Odell

has never played anything with these guys. And Freddie Kitchens has never been a coach. To me, it's pretty unrealistic. Now, again, I'm not disputing that they're awesome on paper. On paper, if you told me Andy Reed, Mike Tomlin, any coach besides Belichick

that was viewed, because obviously Belichick was their coach, they'd be sweet. Pete Carroll, all the good coaches, Sean McVeigh, I think they're going to be really good. But the in the room here is Freddy Kitchens. What happens when someone tears an ACL, when someone gets a DUI on a Wednesday morning, when

when Baker rolls an ankle and misses a game? Weird things happen in the NFL. We know that for a fact. It's never just a consistent, just cruise on down the highway in the second lane on cruise control at 70 miles an hour.

Even the Patriots have weird shit happen every year. Weird things happen in the season. Texas is the best probably firefighter. When I mean firefighter, I don't mean actual firefighter, but just fires inside his own building than anyone. He's unfazed by it all. That's why he's the best at it. Pete Carroll's proven to be pretty good at it. Like I really don't know. Even show... Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where

Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them.

Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped. up in the chase, that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it.

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Even some of the best coaches, like the one thing I'll say about Kyle Shanahan, these two years have been pretty tough. When Jimmy Garoppos played, he's six and two, and I've seen him. at his lowest moments because now they're drafting number two. And he's handled himself pretty consistently well. How will Sean McVeigh handle himself during a seven to nine year? I don't know. I would bet at the information I have, he'll be fine.

Sean McVeigh is just an elite coach. But I don't know. I don't even know how Freddie Kitchens will handle winning a game, let alone losing a game, let alone a two-game winning streak, let alone when Jarvis gets into a fight with Miles Garrett on the side of the line, again, I'm just using hypothetical things that are bound to happen because it consistently happens with every team. But I do know this. They are going to be fun as hell to watch. And if I still played video games in Madden, I 1,000 would be the Cleveland Browns. I don't

even think it'd be a question. But sometimes the teams that you're in Madden or the teams that we think are going to be going to be great on paper don't necessarily translate, especially when the coach is one of the biggest wild cards, I'd say, in recent men. memory. We just don't have much information on the guy because he's never been a head coach, let alone he's been a coordinator for half a year in his life. But it's going to be damn fun to watch and I can't wait. There's a recipe for getting your car running just right. And whatever you're cooking up in the garage, you'll find what you need at eBay motors.com. They have over 122 million car parts and accessories in stock, all at the right prices. And that can help you turn your ride

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Visit guyco.com today. That's guyco.com. Okay, now that we're in draft season, we see two things are happening, and you're going to read about these two things. And they're just pretty normal protocols in the NFL. I think we make a much bigger deal of this stuff than it actually is. One is top 30 visits. That means you get 30 players to choose from that you can bring to your facility.

30, that's it. You get them for 24 hours. Take them to dinner. Chalk-talk, you can do everything except workout. So if you want to work them out, you go to and you put on a private workout or they put on. You go to them and work them out, whether in their college, their hometown, whatever. Story today, Kyler Murray worked out with John Gruden. If you draft in the top five, whether you have a quarterback or don't have a quarterback,

you usually work out quarterbacks, especially with a quarterback that wasn't your guy. and I know Gruden says he loves car, but it would be, you know, I wouldn't say negligent, but borderline negligent, for them not to work out both the two top quarterbacks. Now, they have experience with all the other guys because they coached the senior bowl.

But I don't put that much into them working out Kyler Murray because at the end of the day, talking to some people in the league over the weekend, I think it's, I'm pretty confident that Kyler Murray is going to go. number one overall. If the Cardinals did not take Murray, I do think that Gruden would be extremely interested, assuming that today went really well. Now, there's a chance. I know Gil Brant tweeted out in the morning that they were supposed to be on the field by noon, but Gruden went over an hour

and a half extra in the chock, you know, chalk talk in the film room. So maybe he walked away, not liking him. Maybe he likes him even more. No one knows except Gruden and Mayock. But it's normal. You can work out whoever you want to work out. Now, if I'm Kyler Murray, like, I'm not working out for a team that's drafting like 18, 19, 20. And I'm working out for a select group of teams. I would work out for the Cardinals, the Raiders, probably like the Giants.

That'd be, I wouldn't work out for anyone else. I don't need to. My film speaks for itself. If you want me, come get me, I'm going high. Haskins probably have to be a little more open-minded. Raiders, I know the Raiders went from Dallas where they worked out Kyler Murray. They're flying to Columbus to work them out. If you're Haskins, the Raiders, the Giants, the Redskins, you know, teams like that for sure.

But I'm working out still for a select group of teams. Now, a lot of other players, now I'm like top 10 locks, anyone that wants to work you out, you'd be kind of stupid to not work out. And I think when you're going to read about these guys coming on top 30 visits, sometimes to get a better feel for them, Sometimes it's a smokescreen. Sometimes it just, you know, maybe a coach wants to meet with the guy.

Maybe, you know, a certain position coach or the head coach has a question about the guy. And they just haven't spent enough time with them. So I think there are various reasons that you're going to read why these teams are meeting with these players. It's not like if you run company X, you can interview a guy all day long the next day, take him after dinner, do whatever you're want. There are no rules. Like there are some rules with this stuff that are just industry protocol that you have to follow that can make this stuff a little complicated. And sometimes I remember in Philly when we would bring potential first round guys, we would have them talk with the owner. Jeffrey Lurie wanted to meet them when they would come on their top 30 visits. Now if you bring in a guy

that you like a lot, maybe that's a third, fourth, fifth rounder, you're not only bringing in first rounders in those 30 visits. You'll bring in some. some mid-round guys. You'll bring in some guys that you think might drop because of character concerns you want to talk to. And the owner's not meeting with all those guys. But, you know, you have a pretty, you know, certain probably teams, and we had a pretty consistent operation.

You'd go to, you go to the position coach, you go to the head coach, you meet with the gym, you meet with the doctors, you meet with the trainers. You know, you just go on a pretty consistent cycle. Most teams know what they're doing. Some of these new teams, I would say, when I say new teams, new coaching staff, can be at a little bit of a disadvantage,

though they're kind of going on what they used to do with their old head coach. Now, in a lot of these situations, the GM is still intact. Maybe they have different ideas. But it can be kind of complicated because you only have so much time to really... Last night, a blown call changed a game.

This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where sports slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real.

From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to SportsSlic on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so rapid.

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Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen kingdom on earth. He felt destined for greatness. So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world, he doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the president of Turkey. I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking criminal conspiracies I've ever come across. When Jacob met Levant this plant to a billion dollar fraud. But with two kings from entirely different worlds, just how long can their empire survive?

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and the mindset that keeps them going. from the WMBA standout Kate Martin and rising hockey star Layla Edwards. If a boy can do it, I don't see why a girl can't. Like, I've never understood that. Like, it didn't make sense in my brain. It's hard to be in spaces that no one looks like you, but don't ever feel like you don't feel like you don't feel on. Don't let that be the reason you don't do it.

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It's about showing up, even when it's hard. Listen to Hurtle with Emily Abadi on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. We get a feel for these guys, and a lot of it is based on asking other people. You don't get to spend that much time. To me, it'd be crazy if you really liked a player and you were drafting really high. You'd bring them in on a top 30 visit, but you'd also probably, you know, especially if there were any questions with anything on them. If he was a pristine character guy and you had no questions, like, you know, I'm trying to think there aren't that many prospects that are like that.

But, you know, it's probably like last year, like a Quentin, you know, Quentin Nelson or Roquon Smith. Last year's crop, there were less questions on some of the top players. It was just like kind of can't miss type guy, Sequin Barclay. Now, we didn't know exactly where they were going to go, but Seacuan, high character guy produced, you know, we had known enough about Sequin, then I didn't need to spend that much time. But a lot of guys in this draft, like Rishon Gary, Montez Sweat, just a lot of guys that you're still trying to feel out,

I would bring into my facility and I'd also go visit. You'd want to spend as much time as huge, humanly possible around the person. Because we all know on an interview for the most part, and you see this at the combine, if you only get a 15-minute spot with the guy, or even if you go to their pro day and take them out to dinner the night before, they're going to be on their best behavior. Like, it's not, they're going to be pretty locked in.

But if I get multiple days with the guy, maybe I get a little bit truer insight into the guy's character. Now, maybe I don't, because at the end of the day, you can con people, and you're still dealing with humans. It's very difficult. It's why hiring in the NFL and in any industry is really difficult. And it's why companies and teams and people miss on other people all the time. You can't. There's only so much you can measure, even in football.

Like I can't. And there's a huge unknown. I'd say the biggest unknown in football is that in the draft, if I draft you in the top couple rounds, obviously if I draft you in the first round, I'm giving you an astronomical amount of money. Even if I draft you in the second round, I'm still giving you probably a seven-figure bonus,

and your minimum salary is $5,000, $700,000. You're just base salary. Imagine you out of college doing whatever, going to work for Wells Fargo or some tech company, and they immediately gave you a seven-figure bonus, and this is being a second rounder, and you still make $600,000 year one at 21 years old. Like, that's, you never,

know how people are going to react to money. And that was a question we'd often talk about in scouting rooms. I heard scouts talk about all the time. It's one of the truly great unknowns that's impossible to quantify. And I think what makes the draft great is every team on Thursday night coming up in a couple of weeks is going to be fired up for their pick, for the most part. And half the guys aren't going to turn out to be good players for whatever reasons.

And that's why I think we're so fascinated with the draft. because every year the same shit happens. Yet every year we think like, this is going to be the year, my team nails it, and then they miss. And then you're furious. And it just,

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Aaron Rogers seems to be highly touted by the media despite his age and some setbacks in 2018. As a Vikings fan, I've consistently paid attention to his arm athletic ability every year and I feel like he's mistakenly being thrown in the top five conversation. How many quarterbacks do you have in front of him? Brady, and based on last year, I mean, Mahomes was better.

Roger's still pretty special. He did not have a great season. Weird shit was happening McCarthy was a dead man walking the whole year He got hurt in the first game I know his stats actually at the end of the year Didn't look that terrible He was not the same

One big issue I've had with Rogers Is forever because of his elite arm strength He was able to get away with off-platform throws Because he could just He was so accurate and his feet weren't set Well his fundamentals are shitty Now he was always the opposite of Brady and Peyton

guys like that, he was much more of kind of an ad libber, which he could pull off. Same with Ben back in the day. You know, Ben would run around. Rogers really kind of a different version, but like Russell Wilson, like a lot of his big-time plays don't necessarily come from within the pocket. Well, your feet aren't usually set. And last year for the first time, he wasn't hitting plays when his feet weren't consistently set in and outside the pocket, and it killed him.

Kim, this young coach who has been an offensive coordinator for one year, coach him, up and get him right? Because I still think he has a great arm, but I'm with you. His arm strength is by no means, you know, as good as it once was, but it's still pretty damn good. Like, it's still more than good enough to kick ass and take names. I think this year's a big year for him. And just the franchise, they're paying him

an astronomical amount of money that he earned. I had no problem with the contract they gave him. But when you do pay a guy that much cash, You need him to be great. Like, you need him to be awesome. And he just wasn't last year. What happens if Robbie Gold doesn't sign his franchise tag? Then, like, Levy on Bell, he just won't play.

I mean, he's either going to sign it or not sign it. I mean, at this point, what's he going to do, not sign his franchise tag? I'm sorry, but, come on, you're Robbie Gold, bro. Like, I just, I... Sign your franchise tag. You're a kicker. This is, it's... April, whatever.

Just sign your franchise tag. I think he'll end up signing it. Now, maybe he wants like a two-year deal. And I'd be fine with the Niners giving him, you know, two years, $8 million. How about two years, $9 million, four and a half a year? I'd be good with that. But I also think the franchise, when you're a kicker,

is a pretty big sign of respect. Whenever it's given out, that means a team views you as a really good kicker. It also means they don't have anyone else to pay. but to me it does show that like come on man we we view you in high regard here we're offering you i think this number i have to google it but i think it's like four and a half million dollars so i again i do think he's coming off two really good years he wants i don't know a long-term deal he's an older player but two years maybe two years 10 million i do that then i just don't have anyone else to pay i'd give him two years 10 million it's like robie i'm not giving you like three years 20 million

You're still Robbie Gold. I mean, you're good. You're fine, but you're not making or breaking us. Now, he might break you if you're good, but if the team is not good, which I think they're going to be good. But if you are good, you usually need a good kicker. Could you rank the best young edge rushers in the NFL today?

That's a good question. You know, I think if Mac and Donald are right on the cusp of not being young guys anymore, you'd have to put Joey Boso right there. You'd have to put Miles Garrett right there. I mean, those are the two guys that jump out. Chubbs coming off of, what, 12 or 13 sacks as a rookie? Shit, I mean, he'd have to be right there.

It looked like the Eagles a couple years ago with Derek Barnett was going to be a really good player. He got hurt last year. I think he still has a good chance. Frank Clark's still pretty young. He's a really good player. DeFords a little older. Chris Jones, a younger player. I mean, he's a badass.

I guess he's not an edge player, though. I'm trying to think of a 3-4 outside lineback. Floyd with the Bears is a pretty good player. The Cowboys, obviously, I think Lawrence is a little older now. He's probably 27, 28, so, you know, I haven't watched Vic Beasley that much. I know he had a productive year a couple years ago. Really athletic speed rusher. Chandler Jones older.

The Washington Redskins don't have anyone. Yeah, I mean, I think there's that group of Chubb would be third. I mean, Bosa and who am I forgetting? And Garrett. That's a pretty awesome. I'm probably forgetting someone, but just off the top of my head, just kind of wrapping here into a mic,

because literally that's what I do talking to a mic. But that's a pretty good group. I mean, Bosa's pretty sweet when healthy. Chub looks like a dominant figure. And, yeah, Frank Clark, there are just a lot of good edge rushers in the NFL. It looks like, Harold Landry, the kid from Boston College with the Titans,

is going to be a really good player. They drafted him last year in the second round. The Niners don't have anybody. Raiders definitely don't have anybody. Steelers, I mean, JJ's brothers, pretty good young player. TJ Watt's good. Trying to think of the teens and led the league in sacks. Chiefs, I mean, they had older players.

They had interior guys. There are a lot of good interior pass rushers right now, too. When I was in the NFL, you know, like the early 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, it was a lot harder to find, like a lot of good interior guys came in the league since then. You know, Fletcher was really young then. He was not what he is now.

Then Aaron Donald came in the league. DeForest Buckner came in the league. Chris Jones came in the league. Just a lot of sweet defensive tackles. McCoy was really young back then. Came in the league and just kind of kicked ass and taken names. I think we talked about Howie Roseman. Is Harry Roseman the most progressive?

of thinking GM in the league. I'm really impressed with the moves the last two years. This offseason, especially related to trades, contract terms. I feel like he's trying to write a book on how to transition a team from the stud rookie quarterback contract to when you spend more to support him to the post-rookie contract. I agree. They're still in the sweet spot because you don't have to pay Wentz this year.

Though I think Howie, just knowing the way Howie thinks and being around him, you would love to pay Wentz right now if you could get him on like a five-year $100 million, $70 million guaranteed type deal. So basically like the Jimmy Garoppolo type contract, where you get them cheaper. But I think if you're once, you're like, screw that. I'm going to come back in MVP form and just ask for stupid money.

So I doubt a deal gets done. I think he just let it play out. You're not going to let him go. But yeah, I mean how he's as good as it gets. He's as, to me, he's one of the most unique people I've ever been around because he combines just super, super aggressive. He's just going 24-7, 90 miles an hour with being super smart. Like me, I hang my hat on just aggression.

I'm just going to be very aggressive, very aggressive, very persistent. But I'm not like Ivy League level mind. He's just really, really sharp. And he's like the best of both worlds. Now he went to Florida. Actually, he went to Florida. He was actually Jed Fish's roommate in college, who's now, what's Jed Fish is doing now?

He's a quarterback coach for the ramps. That's kind of crazy. Two guys that didn't play in a dorm room together that ended up going on. One guy became a Super Bowl winning GM, and the other guys had a pretty good career as a coach. It shows you how small the world is. But yeah, Howie is just underrated part about Howie too, and I think back when the Chip Kelly kind of cut him off at his legs

that he didn't get enough respect, and I saw this firsthand, he's been in the league now like 20 years. You know, what's he is, his early 40s. He's been in the league since he was like 22 or 23 years old. So we've seen every player in the league. And unlike I think a lot of stat guys, and he's a stack guy, but he's also like a contract guy, but he also watches a lot of tape.

And he knows a lot of coaches. And he does a lot of character background information. So I always thought he kind of got undervalued in the scouting stuff because he did work at it. He watched a lot of guys. He liked being active in calling about those guys and digging on dirt about those guys. And then he factored it in.

He was so good at matching up what their potential contract would be, with their production. Yeah, he's just a very, very unique individual. I follow the league really closely, and I don't think there's anyone quite like them in the NFL. And just on a similar note, like Bill. I don't think there's anything one quite like Bill Belichick. There are just certain people in the league that are just unique.

and it gives them, you know, an advantage. And I think how he has taken advantage of these last three or four years, I mean, ever since they fired Chip, which, you know, Chip's one of the most overrated pro coaches. I think he's a good coach. I think he's a good coach. It's not a great coach. And I also think he's overrated now in college, as I've said before, because what he does is no longer a point of difference.

Everyone goes fast. Like Chip, what are you doing differently than everyone else? Everyone runs the spread. Everyone goes no huddle. Everyone goes really fast. What are you going to do different? Can you change? Can you adapt?

You're just going to do the same thing over and over and over and over again. And Hill's answer is, yeah, we're going to keep doing the same thing over and over again. Well, it's like, that's probably why you won three games at UCLA. Hey, John, quick Packers question. With the team addressing the edge rusher, safety, and offensive line and free agency, what would the ideal picks be at 12 and 30? Well, I think they definitely could use another skill guy. Now, I don't know if there's a skill guy going to be there at 12, so you probably look defense.

Could Ed Oliver fall there? Could Devin White will be off the board? Could Devin Bush be there, the linebacker from Michigan? I think they need a playmaking speed defensive guy, whether that's a defensive lineman or whether that's a linebacker. And the good thing in this draft, with Devin White off the board, it will be Devin Bush, and then just maybe a defensive end, right? They run a 3-4 defense, I guess, with Mike Petten. Their defensive line is not great. Clark Kid from UCLA is good.

But they could just use more explosion up front. So I would say you can never have enough defensive linemen. If one of the sweet linebackers falls there, you could easily do that. And at 30, I think you could justify taking a wide receiver to put next to with the, I always number 83. I can't say his name. To me, he's a solid rotational guy. Devante's a legit alpha.

And then you get, why not drafting Nikiel Harry or Akeem Butler or A.J. Brown, a guy like that. And throw, like, you're all in with Aaron Rogers. So why wouldn't you want to load up? You just cut Randall Cobb. Jordy Nelson's gone. You know, you basically got Devante in 83. I like 83. Maybe take a tight end.

But I would go skill guy at 30. How do you feel about Xavier Rose and Mike Zimmer kind of going at the last couple days, especially the trade rumors going. around. You know, I've been saying this for a while about Zimmer. Like that old school kind of Parcellian just crush guys. I don't know if that works in 2019. Yeah, they paid him a lot of money and I guess he, I get he had a bad year last year, but I just don't know if that's the way to approach it. I mean, that is Zimmer's deal. But I don't know, man. I mean, they're not going to trade him. They drafted him high. They paid him. He is a good player. Can't you just

talk to him off the media? Now, you say Xavier Rose and Mike Zimmer. I don't know all the details on this. If Xavier started it, then I got no problem. Like if he said something first and then Zimmer responded because I saw Zimmer's quote at the owner's meeting, which again, I thought was unnecessary. Now, if Xavier basically clapped back to what Mike Zimmer said, I don't blame him because I would have too.

Like you just, the old school asshole move through the media, to me, it's just sometimes unnecessary now. Just, I don't know, text them. You know, just tell him to come to your office when he's in town. Talk to him. Where do you think Gronk ranks amongst all-time tight-ins? Also, now that he's gone, who's the guy at tight-end in the league? In my opinion, Gronk's the best tight-end I've ever seen.

Now, I didn't see Bavaro really with the Giants. Tony Gonzalez was pretty special, but he wasn't necessarily a blocker. If you remember all those years, forget the guy's name, the big-ass dude they had in Kansas City. They always had a blocking tight-end. I would say Tony Gonzalez is the best past-catching tight-end ever. to me, Gronk's the best overall tight end ever.

So I'd have Gronk won, I'd have Tony Gonzalez too, and I know Tony's career was longer, but let's call it what it is. And this is not all Tony's fault. It's not really Tony's fault at all. But Gronk just played on some of the most memorable teams of my life. Like, I mean, in just anyone's football watching life.

Like, he was a part of one of the greatest dynasties we've ever seen. And he made some of the biggest plays. I read the staff last week that his playoff numbers, he played 16 playoff games, he basically played a regular season worth of playoff games. He had 81 catches and 12 touchdowns and over 1100 yards. So he's the greatest playoff tight end ever.

Again, some of that's, you know, he just happened to be drafted by the Patriots. But I'd go him one, I'd go Gates two. You know, I didn't see that Kellynne Winslow Jr. The Ozzy Newsoms, I mean, those guys are special. In my lifetime, Antonio Gates is pretty freaking awesome. I mean, he's a Hall of Famer. And I think if you had to go guys in the league right now, Kelsey and Ertz are the two best past catching tight ends.

They're basically uncoverable. No one can cover them. It looks like, and I tried to pump the brakes around where I live last year on George Kittle, but shit, he had an incredible season. And he's closer to Gronk, and he's the best blocking tight end not named Grunkowski in the league. He's a beast, and he's a freak athlete. And he's just a guy's guy. You see him on barstool slamming beers.

But he's pretty good. I think when he got Ertz, You got, you know, Kelsey probably won, Ertz 2, just because those guys are basically enormous slot receivers. Kelsey's a okay blocker. Ertz can't block at all. Or Kittles is the most complete tight end. So I think that's a pretty good trio.

And the guy that Stephen A's guy, Hunter Henry, before he got hurt, I thought he was pretty sweet. So if he can come back 95% of what he was, he's a pretty badass tight end. What do you think an ideal Raiders draft looks like for the first three rounders? I think the best defensive lineman on the board, so whether that's probably going to be Quinn and Williams or Josh Allen, just take one of those two guys, whoever you like the most,

and really probably only one of the two of them is going to be off the board if Kyler and Bosa go one. And then with your two picks, I think take a skill guy, whether that's a wide receiver or a tight end. Probably with Jared Cook leaving, it'd be more likely a tight end. And then I think you'd go several directions. I think you could draft a corner. I think you could draft another defensive lineman.

If somehow one of the linebackers were to fall, that's pretty unrealistic. Corner would definitely be one of the two positions. I would take in the 20s. Then you get a young corner to go with Garyon Conley. You got Carl Joseph. You signed Lamarcus Joyner. All of a sudden you go, damn, I got, you know, Byron Murphy, Garyon Conley, Carl Joseph, and Lamarcus Joyner.

That's a decent backfield. Now, you could also say, let's take Quinn and Williams, and then let's draft another defensive linemen in the 20s and take one of the two tight ends from Iowa. I wouldn't hate that either. Good thing is, when you got three first round picks, which I don't know this, someone have to fact check this on me,

but might be a record for, they might have the record for most picks in the top 35 in draft history going into a draft. I mean, they got four picks in the top 35. So, draft good players. It's, in fairness to the rest of, Raiders, if they have a really good draft, just because they have so many freaking high picks, it's not crazy to think that they could be competitive in 2019.

It's hard because the division's really good. But you could definitely say, well, what if they get Quinn and Williams, greedy Williams, and Noah Fant? And two of those guys are like all rookie performers. And then they draft, you know, a running back at pick 35 that's really good. You'd be like, damn, yeah, they could bounce back. Got a mailback question for you. Let's say that the Cardinals don't draft

Kyla Murray first overall. Where does he get drafted and what other teams would be interested? My problem with this hypothetical is I think it's borderline impossible for them not to get drafted. And if they didn't take him, let's say they traded back. I think he's going number one overall. I think the Raiders would come up and get him.

I think the Jacksonville... I guess they drafted Foles. Probably not. The Dolphins would be. crazy not to. The Giants, I know they hate small quarterbacks, but maybe not.

Yeah, you're right. I mean, it does. My problem with this hypothetical, because you're right. The Bengals, the Giants, there were some teams, but they're a little farther down. I just think at the end of the day the Cardinals are going to take them. What if Belichick came up from 32 to 1 and got Calamari? That'd be pretty sweet, but that did not happen either.

For the mailbag. John, loves your love. analysis perspective. Okay, I know me too. Well, now that we got out of the way the concern about PI rules, I've heard no one talk about this. With the league moving toward offense, we see what I fear is dangerous

is that we will see star receivers get the calls more often like NBA players at the end of games. Like, if we see a play with Julio or Odell, do we really think they're going to get favored late in games? I'm for an adjustment with these penalties, but this is too extreme. Thanks for your time. The difference is, if you're watching Steph Curry or James Harden, and they get fouled and there's a no call, or there is a foul call, you can't challenge that in the NBA.

Either the call or the no call stands. In the NFL, if Julio blatantly pushes off, let's say, and catches a touchdown 50 yards to win the game, and you're the opposing coach and you challenge it, if the video evidence is there, they're going to have to change the call. assuming you have a challenge in your pocket. Now, I don't think there's one thing that's interesting, and someone DM me about this, I know Colin and different people are freaking out about the pass interference on a Hail Mary. I thought there are no challenges within two minutes and has to go to the booth. So I'm not a big rules expert, so I don't know if you can like wait for the booth to review pass interference. That's going to be a little complicated.

I don't have enough information. that might just be kind of learning on the fly how that all works. But I don't think it's necessarily going to matter like Julio or Odell if the play's the play. If there's blatant pass interference, whether it's Josh Norman, whether it's Richard Sherman, whether it's Odell, whether it's Julio. I don't think it's going to matter because it's just going to be blatant on the TV screen, especially on like a Sunday or Monday night game. We're all going to be watching. So it's going to be hard to now, I think you could probably argue that there have been a lot of calls that we've all been watching that were overturned. or upheld that we go, what?

So I guess you never know. That's what makes this kind of fun, I guess. John, long-time's Browns fan, what do you think is realistic outlook for them this season? I talked about it a little bit earlier, but let's see it. And what's your take on all this hype, especially from people like John Harbaugh, with his comments about Cleveland being the team

to beat in the AFC North? Do you think it's sincere from Harbaugh or just trying to distract? I think it's probably a combination of both. I think there's a little gamesmanship from him. I mean, he's a Harbaugh. but I also think he's not being disingenuous. You go, how many good players they have?

I don't know. Odell, Baker, Nick Chubb, Jarvis, Miles Garrett, who am I missing? They just got Denzo Ward. They got really good players. And I think on paper, their top, if you think Baker's going to keep getting better and be a really good player,

their team on paper is absolutely stacked. If Baker becomes a consistent top 10 quarterback, how are they not going to have one of the best offenses in the league, right? So, yeah, I think there's a little bit of hype, but I also think the league just, I've been in league, you know, draft rooms and GM's offices. They just have rosters. They're looking at players on every team.

They know what teams look good and what teams don't. So I think they're, I don't think he's being disingenuous. Now he may be messing with them a little bit, trying to get them to read their own press clippings. But I think if he went, you know what? The Arizona Cardinals are the team to beat in the NFC West. People would be like, John Harbaugh, what are you talking about? But when he goes to, yeah, the Browns team to beat in this division,

is that the right thing to say? You could argue, like, John, they've had two winning seasons 30 years. But on paper, they're better than Lamar Jackson-Lead Ravens. I'll promise you that. They're better than the Bengals. The argument would be the Steelers and their culture and if they could bounce back, but probably better in the same. Steelers. I know Levion didn't play, but they lost Antonio Brown. Last time I checked Antonio had 15

touchdowns last year. Not like five or six. Fifteen. So that 15 is now gone. That's a pretty big hole to make up for. So yeah, I think they're the team to beat on paper. Now, it's football. So anything could happen on the field. But on paper, I think it's fair to say if you assume Baker's going to keep up his high level play. Thanks for listening. Thanks for shooting me your DMs on Instagram. Open book here. Fire me. Reach out whatever you want. Talk to you later this week.

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