The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - BEST NFL Week 1 bets for Ravens-Bills, 49ers-Seahawks, Giants-Commanders, Raiders-Patriots & more

Episode Date: September 5, 2025

These are the sharpest NFL Week 1 picks from expert bettor Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter. They give you the latest odds and smartest picks for all the biggest football matchups including Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets... and yes, the San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks (we do realize we skipped that one in the last episode... thank you for your comments). All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet. Please make sure to rate and review on Apple and Spotify. Timeline: 02:00 - Intro 05:49 - Wiseguy Hotline 10:07 - Raiders-Patriots 12:58 - Bengals-Browns 17:02 - Giants-Commanders 21:43 - Panthers-Jaguars 28:53 - Dolphins-Colts 32:53 - Steelers-Jets 37:09 - Titans-Broncos 42:52 - Brass Balls bet of the week 44:02 - 49ers-Seahawks 49:01 - Lions-Packers 53:05 - Ravens-Bills 1:01:47 - Underdog Moneyline ParlaySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was harmed. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow.

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This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and the wise guys. Pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined by. my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my confidre professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? Dude, I'll tell you how we're doing.

I think we are pretty overwhelmed by our launch with the volume. The team here on the audio and YouTube side did amazing work. People don't understand, like, and they shouldn't care at all. But taking this from a conversation to an actual show that is launched in the span of a few working days, including a holiday weekend, is Herkulean and they should be commended. It's a truly professional job by the volume team. And by the way, we are so grateful to the folks who came along with us for the ride because with very little promo or warning our audience turned out. out. So we have a ton, a ton of gratitude. Even Simon in his cold, calculating heart, has a ton of gratitude. We're truly appreciated it. A couple minor housekeeping. I've gotten a lot of questions about

audio feeds. The Sharper Square feed should be showing up in Apple and Spotify. You may have to scroll for a sec to see it. The sooner you start rating and reviewing, the sooner it flies up in the search rankings. We did this for the old show, so we're going to bring it back. We will read some of the best five-star rated comments on the show, and we're going to give away some swag. So give us some feedback, make it easier to find for everyone, rate, review, subscribe in the app, in the podcast app for Apple. That means hit the follow button. I've also gotten a lot of questions about a contest. Because this show came together so quickly, we cannot organize a contest for this season.

doesn't matter. Simon and I have always built this show around landing on five picks that we will put into contests that we play. Simon likes to call them, you know, all cash contests. I know a lot of you play pick-em contests, so we will still be finalizing five best bets each week. We will report our record every Sunday night and updated on Tuesday. And that is also the point of the Sunday show in the mornings, 11 a.m. Eastern, where Simon and I, you will be in on the conversation when Simon and I are debating those final five and locking them in after the latest line moves, injury updates, et cetera. Quick reminder, Tuesday and Thursday shows at 1.30 p.m. Eastern on YouTube, and they'll get loaded into the audio feeds at the same time. We will do a short show on Sunday

mornings at 11 a.m. I just discussed it. And then we'll still do the wrap-up show, the look-ahead show on Sunday night as soon as the late afternoon game. ends around 7.30. Again, all of these, Sharper Square YouTube channel on Apple Podcasts, on Spotify, go subscribe, rate, review, et cetera, et cetera. Also, last thing, and then we're getting to it. I was so excited, Simon, for my Chad loves love bet on the Lions. I skipped right over the Niners Seahawks, first show jitters. My bad. Luckily, it's an really important game for one of our categorized picks. So we will get to it today. I apologize. But first, Simon, we need to check in with something brand new. It's the Wise Guy Hotline. Wise Guy Hotline. Yeah, Chad. A lot of phone calls.

Obviously, you know, people excited for their first week of the season and, you know, running around all these sports books, talking all these guys, especially the last 24 hours, just so many opinions on our picks and where we're at and what we like and we don't like. Let's start with what they hate, right? Let's just get the bad out of the way first. But I kind of knew this first one was coming. We were on the commanders. I know a ton of pros who are the ones

betting this Giants numbered down. They like this match for the Giants. I know all the stuff about Dan Quinn, week one. I believe he's one and four against his spread as a head coach. Okay, I get it. Maybe it is a Dan Quint. He underprepared his team. They struggle on week one. You know, the Giants, though, to me,

too much is being made of the Russell Wilson. being their quarterback is if he's going to fix that team where I feel like when you've died into it, that offensive line with the injuries and the bad drafts and everything like that over the years, it's caught up to them. They just don't have the offensive line to protect quarterbacks and have an effective offense. And, you know, neighbors, he's been banged up coming this matchup as well. So, yeah, that's a game we'll dive into more, I'm sure, but that one jumped out right away. The big one I was really surprised about, but, you know, makes sense, I guess, when you really dive into it, is that Green Bay Detroit game.

I knew you were going to say that. I knew you were going to say that. I know. And I knew when you were doing it, I was like, this is the most public dog. You were hesitant. And we're going to dive deeper into it. You were hesitant. I don't care.

I told them, I don't care. Like, I get where they're coming from. And in certain circumstance, I agree with them. But I think we're both on the same page. This Green Bay team is overrated right now. Too much smoke's being pumped up their asses. And on the flip side, too much hate is being thrown at those lines team and disrespect about the loss of the coroners, which we agreed with.

We do think they'll be taking a step back because of the corduera losses, but the talent, the talent is so unbelievable. It's no, yeah, but the either wide receivers. The Detroit guys are established unlike the Green Bay guys. So, again, I'm looking forward to us to diving that one more because that was, again, not just one or two phone calls, a lot of guys being like, don't let Chad take you down this dark path. I'm done with him.

I want it. So, yeah, I can't wait to break down that one. For the loves, love the Ravens. The guys love the Ravens, and we've seen that reflected. This number is flipped at most books. So I still like it. I'm sure you still like. I still think it's a good number,

but obviously plus one and a half, and you can still get that contest-wise. How do you not auto-play that number? We'll dive into the Ravens War, but that one did not shock me. The pros love that. You know, the Browns, another one we'll talk about more.

They just, the same thing we're viewing at. It's just an over-inflated line. They're the same thing as us. I feel like we all feel the same way. We could get a bad Joe Flack. That is our fear, probably with that Brown's number. I think most pros I've talked to.

That's the only thing we're hesitant about. But I was shocked, the overwhelming support about our Browns pick just because I thought I was going to be, again, it's a big board. I thought people would avoid this one, but people tend to really love that Browns pick. And the last one, the New York Jets, the love of the Jets. It's real. I know you're a little hesitant on it on Tuesday. We'll talk more about it.

Maybe come around on it, but the boys love it. Like, again, I was hoping. I didn't want to act too excited about because I was hoping we would get a three and a half. It's gone the other way. The three is gone. So that was a game that I loved. I was trying to play a cool. I think people could read through it and could see that that's just a nice number and a nice spot for a team that's going to be really gritty.

And we talked about it, right? It's Pittsburgh on the road his favorite. So that's a game. I'm sure we're going to break down more. But, yeah, again, I forgot to mention this one. The only other game I really got heat from was that at Falcons Bucks game. So we can talk about that one as well. But again, I knew that was chalk coming in.

Like that's a public play for sure. The number has now come down, I believe, to one and a half in those books. So yeah, money's coming on the Atlanta team. But I'm excited to see where you're saying still on this Thursday show with that game. Yeah, I haven't chased it yet, but I do want to dig into it. And I'm surprised. Let's get into all the games that we were sort of trying to narrow down to and do a little bit more research on.

I'm surprised no one mentioned the rail. and the Patriots. And to me, I said it on Tuesday. Discipline is the name of the game here, Simon. If we are doing our Sunday morning show and we are talking ourselves into betting the Raiders at plus two and a half, shame on us. Now, between the time we did our show on Tuesday and today, the line did move up to three for a hot second. I grabbed it at plus three. The only two bets I've really made so far Browns and Raiders and because I'm still nervous about the rest of them

I know but I mean look the Patriots are getting so much hype right now I'm getting alerts from ESPN NFL insiders talking about the Patriots as a playoff team are you guys kidding me like if this gets a three

it's a no-brainer zero zero concerns. I'm with you. I like the number. I told you, I'm not trying to get too attached to it. Like I have my mentality of,

I'm going to have times where I'm going to be able to ride with this Raiders team in better spots. And the flip side of the Patriots, I hope, honestly, that they win this game. Even though I am on the Raiders plus three, because our week two line, that's going to get, like you just said,

the media hype, we're going to get a two or three free point bump, which again, we're both, I feel like in a lockstep here of this Patriots team that, I think they'll be better, but I think it is overinflated the hype. And, you know, it's gotten too far this other way. And, you know, big thing people aren't talking about is Chris Gonzalez.

You know, their number one shut down corner, little banged up, that's huge in this matchup that, I mean, let's face it, the Raiders, they're not beating people with defense this year. They're beating people because they're going to have a high-powered offense. That's the hope with Gino here. So, yeah, I'm just, I told you, I'm trying to get sucked too much into this game because I am so high on this Raiders team. And like you said, the plus three, we got to take it.

So I don't know if we'll take a contest, because I believe it will be two and a half on this at all contest lines. But, you know, we could get lucky, right? If Gonzalez gets cleared, you know, late line movement, this could get to three, three and a half. So we'll see because I do think he is worth half a point to this Patriot's number. Like that's how important he is as a lockdown corner. He takes away half the field.

So, yeah, to me, that's a big thing if you're waiting. on if you're like Chaddier and you already got the three, you can just be patient now and wait on it. You got the best number. If you're out there and you're still stuck at two and a half of your main book and you can't shop around, your state doesn't work that way. That's the only book you can really use. Just wait. Be patient. If Gonzalez gets cleared, I guarantee you this will get back to three. We need a late run. We need a late run from the market on the Patriots. All right. Cincinnati at Cleveland. This number at the hard rock is five. And it's It's been moving in that direction pretty much all week.

And this was your Simon says. I love it too. I think it's going to make our contest play likely at five and a half or five, no matter what the contest line is. I asked you the other day, what do we have to do? And this is before I knew it was going to be your Simon says. I just knew that I was targeting this game as a Chad loves love before you stole my heart. what do we have to believe to bet the Browns, which is essentially asking, what do we think the narrative for this game is going to be? And we know what Kevin Stefanski wants the narrative for

this game to be. We know he wants his pass rush to dominate against a terrible offensive line. We know he wants his veteran quarterback to play within the system, which when he has quarterbacks who can play within his system, Kevin Stavansky has proven to be very successful. and we know he's going to run the ball. And Jerome Ford is a running back who's going to get most of the carries. He was one of the most explosive backs in the NFL last year.

So while he's not a household name, there is quality in the backfield. I can't find a reason not to like the Browns. I just feel like I like them more and more, actually. Yeah, I'll just start it right from the top. If people don't remember, I'm going to beat you the death of this trend. 24-7 against the spread,

77% since 2009 home divisional dogs. So it's the historical data backs it up, but we're also talking about how we like this matchup. That's what people are not, or I think are overlooking here, what Chad just nailed is it's a huge discrepancy between the D-line and the O line of this Cleveland Brown's defense compared to this Cincinnati Bengals offense line.

And I agree, there's ways they can counter, right? They can start running quick passes, screens and other things like that. But when I turn it the other way, like Chad just talked about with Flacko, the Stefansky offense, we saw them be successful. They made it to the playoffs together. And when you look at it, it's an offense that when it's balanced, it's at its best, right? Then you want to be a team that can run the ball.

And do I know Ford's the answer? I don't. But they also have, you know, they have two different rookies they drafted. We don't know who's going to be the guy there. But I think there's going to be a semblance of a run game then where they really didn't have that last year. They had no run game because they really did not have a pass game and we pushed the ball downfield.

They do that. They have that now with Flacko. And the fact that Jerry, Judy, and Tillman are two guys on the outside, I think, are really talented. And they have a good tight end. It all works for me with this Clinton. That's why, again, they're over four and a half win total. It's like they're not as bad as people perceive, especially when you have a veteran in there like Flacco, where me and chatting me sweating, right? When he throws that first pick in the first quarter, it's going to be brutal.

But unlike a rookie who just craters in on themselves, Flacco doesn't care. It's just another day at the office for Joe Flacco. He does not care. So to me, that's another thing I like about it where it's like he can roll with the punches. He's a type of guy who's been here before and he won't get flustered by the Bengals in this moment. So yeah, you know, home dog in this spot. It was six. Shout out to the fans.

Listen to the show and we were able to get to six. Went to five and a half. Now here we are 24, 40 hours later. Now it's down to five of most books. So people can tell what the professionals like. And yeah, the public, again, talking to bookmakers, this is another money line, teaser heavily bet team in the bangles that you know people just think it's a guaranteed win and we know the deal joe burrow i believe he's one and four straight up in week one game so it's

just something he struggled with and they're trying to combat it having them play in the preseason but um i think the number's still too over inflated he might win this game but i think it'll be by you know less than three good old battered flacco he's so old now he actually is battered flacco shout out Scooch and all the old heads who have been listening to the show Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers and guess what? We have some big news.

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New York Giants at Washington, you mentioned this is a game that on the Wise Guy Hotline, they were not fans of our conversation about this game in which we liked Washington at the time. Washington was six. The lines move in the other direction. Simon, you can check in your app. Hard Rock, I think, is now down to five in this game. Like, we know every year we want to be thoughtful about not over-indexing, indexing on the dogs.

And the commanders were trending to be one of the teams that, you know, come Sunday, like if circumstances played out, we needed another game, they might be a favorite that we like. I get what the wise guys are saying, but I look at this Giants team, and you said something really important the other day, as good as their defensive line is, Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence and Abdul-Carter.

Right? That's amazing. But Jaden Daniels isn't the kind of quarterback who gets flustered in the pocket, he's normally the kind of quarterback who finds a way to escape via a lane on an over-aggressive pass rush, which I think kind of plays into the strengths. Either these guys are going to have to be really disciplined,

or if they aren't, he's going to take advantage of that. So I like that, as you said the other day. But also, Andrew Thomas is still not fully back from his league, his frank injury. He was limited in practice on Wednesday. There has not been confirmation of what his status is going to be for the game. He might play, but he might not be full strength. This team cratered without Andrew Thomas last year. So I get what the Wes gosh are thinking. It's a big number for a division dog, but this team is on the road. And sometimes you've got to bet the talent and the scheme a little bit. So I'm not hating this game as the number gets smaller

and smaller. Yeah, I think it's just a classic case of the numbers move too much for me, where I agreed with them. If this was six and a half, six, I could be talked into the Giants at that number. But like you said, now it's down to five. We're getting close to four and a half territory. That's where the value is going to be. So to me, I had this game at six and a half.

I talked to pros who have this at four and a half. So two point difference is a big deal when you're booking these games. So I get where they're coming from. in these spots, but I view it as this commuters team, they are going to struggle this season, in my opinion, against really good and well-talented teams. This is not it. This is not the type of game they struggle where, yeah, Chad,

we might have a couple fourth-down stinkers that we talked about coming with this Washington team, and the regression is going to come. So sure, they could go for it on their own 40, on their first opening drive, and it goes the other way. But it's something where I like betting Daniels, like we did last year. Yeah. is that they won't change who they are. They're going to keep doing what they do.

So it's like, okay, they didn't work that one time. If they can go, which they were doing last year, three for four and fourth downs, they're going to win the games. And usually that's what happened, especially last season. So what we're looking at this year is just, you know, I told you, my pause on this is that whole Dan Quinn thing, that he does, his teams historically have struggled in the past in his week one.

I went back, watched, you know, a really condensed version of that Jane Daniels Buck's game last year just to see what the deal was. And to me, it was just a guy's first start on the road in week one as a rookie quarterback. And it's like, I don't know how much I could take away from this and blame Dan Quinn for this being a, not having this team prepared in this exact match. Even though defense did struggle, we learned later on that book's offense was really high-powered. So, you know, I'm not trying to take too much away from it. I'm trying to steadfast with Chad here on this commander's team. But people can see, I'm wavering a little bit. There's other favorites I do like, but this number keeps moving, my confidence keeps growing where it's like, okay, if you give

me four and a half on the commanders here, I'm going to, I'm going to hit it pretty heavy. So it is a tough spot. Simon, come Sunday, I just wrote this down. I don't know how we're not going to have a conversation about the commanders, because this number is trending in a direction where it's going to be pretty hard to ignore playing the four and a half point favorite on a number that has moved if full two points for what is just a much better team. All right. Carolina Jacksonville. I was kind of glad that the wise guys didn't mention Carolina Jacksonville in sort of the hotline.

This game was at three and a half. I left this game in. I don't think we're going to bet it. Like, we owe it to people to close out the Panthers conversation. tell people that we are not putting in the contest. We may not even bet them. I think they've got huge issues with wide receiver depth and health and experience and targets that can make Bryce Young comfortable.

I think they've got issues with the defense. Derek Brown is back. He missed all of last season. He can be a game changer in the run game, but we have no idea if he's going to be healthy. He missed the entire season, you know, with an injured knee. So that hook is just, it's like, you know, when you're watching vaudeville and they got that big wooden stick with the hook at the end and they grab the performer by the neck and pull them back to the stage, that hook is like grabbing me and trying to get me back. And I just want someone to talk me out of it.

I want you to talk me out of this. Yeah, I would say it's actually with Shockey Chad. There has been convo about this game. I would say a lot of the pros I've talked to, they like Jacksonville. I think they like them because of what they believe they're going to be. Like, you know, this season, all of them, I think, are the same bit as you, right? I think in the preseason, you talked about how you like them to win this division.

You know, AFC South, there are a sleeper team that a lot of pros like because they believe you're bringing an offensive genius with all the weapons, you know, should take Trevor Lawrence, a guy we both respected coming out of college and just has not lived up to that hype, this could all be it, right? It's all lined up for them. So you already talked about there's areas of talent that's come and see here.

Like Jacksonville is a better team overall. They're better defensively at certain positions. Offensively, they're a more complete team, you know, better weapons. So I agree with you. Like I'm happy that we can actually stay away from this one because I'm like you. It's like, I really want to take the three and a half

because it's still Jacksonville. At the end of the day, it is the Jaguars. And, you know, they could easily just melt. under this new offensive system and have total dysfunction where this is year two for Bryce Young in this offense. He should be way more comfortable

and prepared in this exact spot. So to me, all the factors of it, it's like I'm happy we're not forcing this winning because again, there's other games. It's my first Sunday of the year. I want to be watching other games than Panthers, Jaguar. So I'm happy we can skip this one

so I can enjoy my Browns and Bengals. I don't know, like I know you said you've got thousands and thousands of bets already. I feel like, I want to go a little bit lighter in week one. Like, it's so unknown. I've got a lot of opinions, but nothing is backed up by real data and what my eyes have

seen yet. So I feel like even though I've got games I love, I'm playing a little bit more conservative. By the way, Travis Hunter will be starting a wide receiver. His current totals are four and a half receptions, 47 and a half receiving yards. are a sneaky good player prop better. We don't talk about it a ton just because we focus so much on sides. Do you have any opinions on Travis Hunter and his receiving total and his reception total and his receiving Eric total? I don't know what to say. I feel like I'm just such a hater of him. I hate that I'm a hater because I want it to work out, but no, you can't, I would not,

I would not be betting any over of his props, any of that stuff. I still think it's, I don't even know if they totally know what they're doing with them yet, where they're like, we got this insane weapon, but we don't know how to use it because it's, it's never been done before. And again, my opinion's been shared. I, I just don't think it works. There's no way it works. He doesn't have the body frame for it. I just, I can't see it working him laying hits and taking hits for a full season, the way his body is built currently. Just, it doesn't, it doesn't make sense. That's why all these people are comparing him, Otani. Have you guys ever seen Otani? This dude is 6-6 it looks like in just 300 pounds of muscle.

Like, it's just a different world. So I'm excited for him. But yeah, for me, being the guy I am, I'll take his under prop. But I will bet his touchdown prop because certain books, you can finagle it. Some books do have fine writing. If you get to pick six, it counts towards the defense. Some books don't, though. Some books will count a pick six as a touchdown.

So it's just an extra edge to play. If he is going to play a couple of reps at cornerback, I'll take that upside for week one. It's just a fun bet to make. But, yes, the hater in me, yes, under four and a half. I just do not think he'll be the number one focal point of this offense. I still think it's Brian Thompson, Jr. Brian Thomas. Good lesson.

Study the House rules. I'm putting Miami and Indy in there right now. It's at minus one at Indy minus one at Hard Rock Bet. I know we aren't doing it. I just want to know if I could tempt you. Like the line is moving. Remember, it was at one and a half. There's some places where it's at a half right now.

It's moving in the Dolphins direction. Anything about this in which I could tempt you? Do you think everything is just, this is so public, it's so sad that I'm even bringing it up. Yeah, and shockingly, though, no pros I know really are pounding the table for Daniel Jones' cold steam. I know a couple guys I like

them like me, season long. We talked about how I thought, you know, if they take Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson just for this season, yeah, I think that's better as a better. I don't think it's long term better for your franchise. But, yeah, for me looking at this line, it's the classic case of I'm with you, Chad, that it's Miami indoors facing a team

that I don't know if they can expose their weakness. Miami's biggest weakness is the offensive line. Could be an absolute train wreck in their second. there. Like just two things that are I mean everyone's model is different. My model has them both as bottom 30. So like 31, 32,

that's what I'm graded. Their offensive line, their defensive backs. Could that change obviously after week one, right? If this new offensive line puts it together and they actually work well together, that does happen. Dbacks, not so much. Usually these guys are what they are, right? Especially a team like them who

they're all in the market shopping, defensive backs. But again, we're talking about Can the Colts expose that? I don't think so. So I'm getting there with you, Chad. It's like this is the type of matchup to it indoors in a controlled environment against a defense that can be passed on. Everyone's healthy.

He's healthy. You can get me there if you want to make it one of your picks, but it would not be one of mine. So that's where we'll differ. But, yeah, I got no money investing in this game yet. I'm undecided, but I'm leaning way more towards Miami's side than I was Colts a couple weeks ago. All right. Well, guess what? Miami is going on the list to talk about on Sunday morning, baby.

We're doing it. Could be in there. Simon, we are crazy excited to announce our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. I don't know if you know this. I've got a very long history of staying at Hard Rock hotels and casinos, including one football season, practically living there, literally. They've always been to me the best combination of vibe and fun. Now you can use the top rated hard rock

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If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help. Call 1-8009 with it. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey. Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Super excited about Hard Rock. Got a lot of friends over there. They're a fantastic group and they're crushing it. All right. Pittsburgh at New York Jets. This game was at three. We were talking about it on Tuesday. Guess what? As you mentioned, Simon, right now at Hard Rock bet. It's at Jets plus two and a half. The wise guys have come running for that three. Look, I can't argue with you. I'm leaning that way.

It just feels like the move to make, just a question of what the line is going to be for us on Sunday when we make the picks. But what do you think of it at two and a half? I still play it. We still play the two and a half, but obviously we love it at three because that's the safest number.

But it's just a matchup of two teams that I think the general public, and bookmakers coming to the season viewed them differently, and their win totals reflected that, where I've talked about it, like them, the Jets, the Patriots, the Pittsburgh, all these teams, to me, they're all the same team. Like, they all have strengths and glaring weaknesses,

and it's all going to come down to coach and end of it, right? That's why Tomlin's the unicorn of getting his bad teams the 9 and 8. And, like, I get it that their fans are sick of it in Pittsburgh, but you talk to about 80% of football fan base, they will take that Tomlin existence every time. Because, yes, we all want to win playoffs games in Super Bowls, but in the day, you just want a competitive team that wins games and makes with the playoffs.

Like, that's the goal for almost all these teams at the day. So looking at just this matchup, you know, the three, I love that number. I did not think it was going to come down. I just, I didn't really think pros would put heavy money into this game because the unknown, it's just so much unknown right now about this Jet's team, where, you know, I felt confidently professional betters would take Pittsburgh,

and they would take it at this exact number two and a half. Like they, I thought some guys, like, as soon as I saw this move, I reach out to people because people don't understand. A lot of line movement is fake. It's not fake, but it is where it's like guys will come in on one side, move a number, and then bet really, really heavy on the other side. And that happens more often than you'd believe. This is not one of those circumstances, which I honestly thought I was going to be.

it's now been about 24 hours and it's been stuck at two and a half so yeah i think we might be able to get back to three chab but i do think more professional money will come in on this jet team to get closer just because so many things line up for this team where they do have a good defense matchup wise against what this pittsburgh offense wants to do and then you know say which one about pittsburg their defense can be mitigated you know t j can be mitigated if you can run the ball and you have a running quarterback. Like, there's ways to attack them with that exact style of offense.

So, yeah, a game that I think people weren't excited to watch, but someone like me, I really love this game. I love this matchup, but it's going to be in the four box. Like, Justin Fields' revenge game, Aaron Rogers' revenge game. Yeah, that's the media talk of this. Me, it's Aaron Glenn versus Tomlin. Like, I love these two head coaches,

and I'm excited to see this type of matchup because I just can't get over how good Aaron Glenn was defensively with that Lions team. And now he's got, you know, just as good at weapons here with his Jets team, I'm excited to see what he can do, especially in this matchup. So, yeah, Chad, another game where I don't know if we'll get there. Like, I don't know, I'll confine. I am doing two and a half in our contest.

But people betting wise, three, you have to grab that three if it pops. And you're just, you're with us that this is going to be the type of game. It's going to be ugly. It's going to be grueling. No one's winning this game by more than three, Jets or Pittsburgh. So I think three is such a key number in this matchup. Yeah. I, like, we're not going to get emotional about these things on Sunday.

And we're not going to get lazy. And we're going to remember all of our notes. I'm making all the notes. We're going to remember every conversation. We're not going to let like a late line move or a late injury or late noise distract us. Like late wise guy conversations that are happening in the sports book at 3.30 in the morning on Sunday. We're not getting distracted, Simon. Okay.

I'm putting the jets down, but we're only doing it if it gets to plus three. I want to bring these next two games together. I want to pair them appropriately because they are both in play for a bet that would require some serious Cajonis. And we're going to have to make a call based on one of these two games. First one up. Tennessee plus eight right now at Hard Rockbet at Denver. I hate this game. I feel like this is a game where wise guys are telling me I have to do it,

even though it's ugly and scary. And for years, I would have auto played this for the Titans. But I do feel like I need at least something I like about the team matchup-wise. I like things about the Browns against the Bengals. I like things about the Raiders against the Patriots. I don't know that I like a rookie QB against a great defense in altitude for first game. It feels like a recipe for disaster. You keep hammering me about it.

It is moved in the direction of the Titans because the line has come down after going high, peaking at eight and a half, biggest number of the week. Can we just talk about this for a second as friends, as compatriots, as partners? Yeah, hopefully the public gets us back to the eight and a half. Bet more teasers, people, keep lowing up on Denver. I'm joining you. I told you, I'm putting them in my Survivor, so I think Denver is one in this game. But, you know, to me, the biggest thing jumps out right away, Trad,

if I can give you some trends, the easier one. Because you said you don't know what to do week one, right? There's too much unknown. You got to trust the numbers. Long-term winners, baby. That's what we're giving out here. It might feel gross. It looks gross, but it's how I make a living.

Long-term winners. This is a long-term winners. This is a long-term winner. Okay, last 20 years. Let's go last 20 years. Is that enough time for you, Chad? 20 years of data year? You know what?

It's actually, whatever you're going to say, I don't know that it matters because the NFL changes so much. It doesn't. It does. Everything from 2017, when they moved the extra point back, and people started going for two-point conversions more.

Everything since 2020, when people started getting more aggressive. Like the kickoff rule from last year, year. The game that we play today, that we watch today, is just different than even the game from 15 years ago. But go ahead. If you go back, Ron Rivera. All these coaches were going for it on fourth down. They're not, they didn't reinvent the wheel lately, Chad. You're overrating how aggressive teams are. Last 20 years, dogs, plus 8 to plus 10, 73% the last 20 years. 19 and 7. In week one. 19 and 7, Chad.

In week one. Yeah, in week one. How many of those dogs had a rookie number one overall quarterback? Because I know those guys have gone, I think, one in 15 against this. This is why I feel bad for you, Chad. You sound like a sucker. I literally won. I had Ryan Fitzpatrick on Tampa plus 14 against the Saints and Drew Brees.

He won outright with Tampa. okay so like don't get me all this nonsense where you can't see these things happen it's week one brother shit's about to get weird that's what you need to lean into here where it's like yes if this was week nine i agree with you once denver's on a roll and everything's clicking i agree with you you are fading a rookie who went eight and oh as a favorite last season perfect and you're betting on a team that went two and five against the spread they are left for dead two and fifteen by the way i'm going to give you two and 15 against the spread. Yeah, every bookmaker I talk to,

95% of the money. The money is on Denver and the spread. So like, what are we debating here? It's, you want to weigh a long-term winner? You want to bet with the sports books? You know what? You know what? Simon?

You know what? It's already week one. I want to put Tennessee in the contest only because you have to own it. Are you going to own it? And on Sunday night, we're going to talk about it. I wonder with them the Cowboys. The Cowboys are eight and a half.

You're betting the Cowboys for the same exact reason. It's a huge inflated number on a heavily overrated, inflated team. It's literally that simple. We're not, again, not trying to re-event the wheel here. It's data numbers, trends that back it up. And you said you need matchups for Tennessee. Okay. Denver, this amazing defense, historically, they always,

always regress in the history. So 25 years of data, teams like them that finish top three defensively, every single one, the last 25 years has regressed, except Tomlin one year with that Steelers defense. They're the only defense ever to improve from being a top three defense to the number two defense following year. It's just, so Denver's defense, that's going to be the biggest thing right away. They will regress.

Cam Ward, he could be dog shit. He could throw a pick. That's not going to be that shocking. he will not be Will Levis, all he does is go three and out or throw picks. Cam Ward will eventually get into a rhythm. He'll be able to move the ball against Denver team. So, yes, Chad, they're the worst team of football.

Denver is obviously one of the better teams in football. I get your hesitation. They could blow out Tennessee. That's why we're taking them a survivor. I'm just telling you this number should be seven. It's eight, eight and a half. You got to bet that value. That's an inflated line.

You have to take that number. All right, Simon, then, you know what? We're doing it. This year, we're changing it up a little bit. It's not enough to have big balls because even when you have big balls, if you get kicked in the dick like we're going to with this game, you need to have brass balls. So here we go. This week are brass balls better the week. Tennessee Titans plus eight against the Denver Broncos.

And we're putting this in the freaking contest, brother. And if it wins, all the flowers for Simon. So there's honestly only one spot left because the next three games we're going to talk about, Chad. I basically, people don't know I'm running the contest finally again this year.

I'm making our picks. Chad had the last two years. It's back to Simon making the picks. What he means is like Simon gets to actually put the picks into the contest. And I don't want to say why to me on Sundays anymore. Like I can't tell you how many times

I want to break this guy's neck where I'm not running around. I tell him to put a game and he goes, why? Why? Because the earth spins. I don't know why, Chad, but yes. Listen, I'm inquisitive, and I try to set an example for my kids to ask questions, you know, when they don't know the answers. So listen, I don't want to skip San Francisco and Seattle again.

So this was also a game that was on our brass balls list. And I apologize again that I missed this. I slid right over it. It just basically been sitting at the Niners at two and a half. It's a two now at Hard Rock Bet. So some money coming in on Seattle. And Simon, I know that you've gotten some intel about the wise guys, liking the Seahawks for pretty big money here.

I need someone to talk me off of the Niners because I know I'm biased. I know I'm heavily invested in them for the Super Bowl futures. I'm against Sam Darnold. I love Robert Sala being back and coaching this defense. So, God, I know you love. I know you love the Seahawks here. Tell the people why. And I'm checking a heart wreck right now because I just kind of alert.

Yeah, it's back up to two and a half, Seahawks. Obviously, there is some 49ers money out there. And me and Chad, agree. Like, we like this 49ers, this upcoming season, season long. And I think they're a team that's well positioned that, you know, once Sala coaches up these young guys on the defensive side, they could be really good. This is a bad spot for them to be trying to get coached up, right?

We've seen Kubiak, the offensive coordinator of this Seahawks team, be successful really early in the season last year with that New Orleans team. When New Orleans healthy, I mean, they're putting up 40 points a game before their O line got banged up and Carr got banged up. Like that offense was moving the ball. I came into the year kind of being a Seahawks hater because of their O line. I've really turned the page on them, the way I've seen them play in preseason and everything I've read from their beat writers, where it's like, you know, they've really done a lot of work between the draft. for agency and trying to build out this O line because they knew it was one of the worst units in all football last season you're bringing in Sam Darnold who needs a good old line to survive they're bringing Cubiac because they said okay if we don't have the best offensive line let's be a

run team that can you know push the ball downfield as well which is literally what he does he wants to draw the safeties in and then take you up take it off over top like that's the lazy way to say that's how Cubiac kind of wants to run his offense and to me when I first to me when I break it down. This is a match of the favors them. I think they'll be able to run the ball really well against his four-in-hires team. And on the defensive side, I kind of love this matchup for the Seahawks against Purdy,

where pretty surprisingly he's done really well against Seattle. I think he's undefeated playing against them. I think he's 3-0 in Seattle as a starter. But in week one, Shanahan's actually struggle as a coach, and I do think it's because the offense is a rhythm-based offense.

And I think at the end of the day, you know, I know they just signed Jenny's in like that. they're coming back. So at least they will have two pretty solid receivers. Kittles healthy. McCaffrey's there. This usually would be a smash spot for me with this team. But just the fact that it's on the road against Seattle team that historically,

I think they're 30 and six in the first three games at home, that's a team that just usually wins, even when they've had bad teams at home in the first couple weeks because they're just so dynamic with that offense. And obviously, you know, we're really banking here on Sam Donald. So two and a half, I'm not honestly comfortable here. I was worried we're going to come on the show. It was going to be one to half.

And that, to me, would have been a no play. Like, people know if you listened to the show before how much I love the number two and how much the NFL has changed now, where two and a half is such a key number. So yeah, to me, Chad, I'm still confident about it. A guy I really respect, you know, he doesn't work with any betting groups. He's just a loan better that works with bookmakers try to get his money down. He hit this line for 50K. So he hit the Seahawks for 50K.

and that's where I thought the number was going to come down because this guy does move numbers. It doesn't sound like a big bet, but this guy does have weight behind his betting numbers. So, you know, to me, I already kind of like the Seahawks here, knowing a guy I really respects coming on the same side as me. And once again, the home divisional dog trends,

24 and 7 in week one, that backs up the Seahawks, even is this exact spot where it's like, I could see the four-niners winning this game somehow at the end, but it just feels like it's a number that's a little inflated. Like one-to-half,

that was the right number to me. Still two and a half. That's the good value across the key number on the Seahawks team. Not a huge margin for error in this game. Not a huge one.

Like, I put it on the list. It's not going to be the brass balls. We're thinking heavily on Kubiak and those run blocking scheme working for the Seahawks team. We're forcing ourselves to believe in things unseen at this point.

A lot of these teams, though, to be fair. It is like the Tennessee Titans and the brass balls better the week that we just made. I actually feel better with it. Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, Nick? Huge news.

We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys?

I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast,

where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is. Getting a racist statue removed.

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Listen to Help from Hypocrat as part of the Mike Coutura podcast network available on the I-Hart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Exciting to being our brass balls bet than with Seattle. The Chad loves love bet was Detroit plus two and a half. And that number is now at Hard Rock Bet down to two. So, you know, moving in my direction. The wise guys came in and in the hotline they talked about how much they liked Green Bay more. I get it.

Here's my theory is that this line got moved too much by Micah Parsons, who's taken injections in his back and is limited in practice and hasn't done training camp and has barely been with this new team. So why are they getting a full point of value for a guy who we don't even know how many snaps he's going to take if he plays at all? That's to me the reason why I'm playing the Lions here. Yeah, I'm confident with you in the same spec. My only pause here would be, you know,

the Troy can come out and rhythm with the scripted plays. I'm not worried about the first 15 to 20 plays, but it's after that. That's my hesitation because that's the unknown here with this Detroit team in this offense. Like how is golf going to be? He went from him to McVeigh in his year to Ben Johnson, which we know now, right? In the future, we know looking back, maybe two, some of the best offensive minds on all football.

We don't know if he's not that same thing. So like I get the professional's hesitation because LaFleur love, they know exactly what they're getting there. Like that, like again, love, no excuse. I mean, people say we're too hard on him. Us being hard on him is the fact that he played nine good games and got an insane amount of money. And then last year, you know, I don't put it on him as much as other people do because he got banged up

that week one game in Brazil. And then the injuries just kept happening to rain only to him throughout the season. Maybe that's something that'll plague him all year. But right now, his only injury was his non-throwing hand. And it seems like he's been back fire practicing with that, no problem. You know, the wide receiver room,

that's the biggest question about Green Bay to me right now, right? Their golden kid, he might be an absolute stud, he might be their number one receiver. What do they have behind him, right? They have so many injuries behind him right now. And, you know, I think Reid at Planner Fasciitis or something crazy, dealing with, like, injuries that he's going to play through it the whole season, but like that's a major red flag right there. And, you know, a guy I love Tucker Kraft is fully healthy.

That's a big deal, obviously, he had the tight-up position. But, you know, overall, I just think Detroit defensively, they have the athletes, they have the talent, maybe arguably the best safety tandem in all football. Aiden Huntress said, I know we were joking about it, but, you know, his sack total prop was 13 and a half, 14, felt too high for me, right? I would take that under.

There's no sense that he can't come in here and still be a game record, right? If he comes back and he is at 80%, 85%, I mean, it's one of the best pastors in all football. That is a big deal. Because, you know, Green Bay, their strength to me when I really break it down, It is that O line.

Like that old line with Josh Jacobs, that's a reason that identity of that team was so strong. So, yeah, I'm really excited for this matchup just because Green Bay, one in five last year in their division. Like that was their Achilles heel. Detroit, me and Chad, we're banking honestly all in good coaching with Campbell here and just the fact that he can hold this all together. And that, you know, the OC that's stepping in here, he was the understudy of Ben Johnson all this time. He, I think, is going to be a guy that could show up and be next year on everyone's radar as the next hot topic and being the next head coach. So I think we're in lockstep here of it's about the number, right? Two and a half in our contest plus two.

We love it. If this number is at a pick, right, if this moves all the way back to a pick or Detroit flips to being a favorite, like we've seen these lines flipping now, I don't know if we love it as much, right? Because we're kind of playing the value. We're still all in Detroit. We still think they're going to win this game. but at the two, two and a half, like when Chad gave it out, it didn't make me feel a little sick to my stomach

because I knew how chalky it was, but it really was about the number. It's like, we're getting a loaded Detroit team as a plus and two and a half dog against an overhyped Green Bay team, right? They're everyone's darling right now. Everyone's Super Bowl pick. It's just, they're just another team

where the love affair has gone too high. And yeah, could they win this one? The pros will be right, right? That this is a huge deal that Aaron Glenn left and Ben Johnson got me and Chad overlooked at. We'll own that on Monday if it's true, but as you said here right now, I just have a ton of confidence in the structure of that Detroit team.

And this is not the type of game. I think they'll trip up. And there will be other matchups they will. But I honestly, I think they have a big, big offensive matchup that they can exploit here in the secondary of Green Bay. And defensively, I think people are underrated how good of a defensive stars they have on this Detroit team, fully healthy. I love when you and I are aligned and it gives me confidence.

and makes me feel better about myself. And also means that we can put it in the contest and I'm not going to feel as guilty if it loses, the way you will about the Tennessee Titans. Baltimore is visiting Buffalo at Hard Rock Bet. The Ravens are now a one-point favorite. That's a big move, folks, because when we did the show on Tuesday,

they were one and a half-point underdogs, which means the Baltimore Ravens. Our Rock and a Hard Place, Bet of the Week, presented by Hard Rock. This one is gratis for our friends at Hard Rock Bet. Listen, we liked the Ravens when it was one and a half and they were dogs. We don't love betting a line flip. But the more I look at this game, the more I feel like I'm betting a complete team against a team that is Josh Allen. and everyone else who needs to be lifted by Josh Allen.

Yeah, I'm with you, Chad. I hate that it flipped, but people say, all we do is bad dogs, Chad. Here we're proving them wrong. We're on the chalk favorite now in the Ravens, and I'm still confident. I'm still believing in this play. And, you know, it stinks because there's so many great trends.

We talked about it when, you know, Lamar is a dog. He's 12 and 3 against the spread his career as an underdog. You know, we love that type of stuff. but another trends I like to look at is whenever he's playing on turf. And I know it sounds simple, but it's a big deal, right? Turf is fast. And that's Lamar's greatest strength. And that's what this offense wants to be.

They want to be fast. And that, you know, to me, is something I really dove into. It's like, can I find an edge about Lamar and when he plays on turf fields? And there is a long-term edge on that, right? I've been betting it his whole career. I checked my notes. He's 19-3 against a spread when he plays on artificial turf. 19-3 against the spread.

So it's like, you know, it sounds stupid, it sounds lazy, it sounds easy, but it's factual when he's a different player when he's playing on turf because it is a different, a different field and the movement's different. So that was something that jumped that right away. And then, you know, when we dove into the matchups, the Bills team, how they'll exploit this matchup, they will just run, run, run the ball. And to me, that could work, but at the same time, that just means it's going to be low, low, low, scrook. scoring closed game. And like, that's exactly where I want to be with Lamar. Because this is, again, this is not the playoffs. This is a regular season where Lamar, he is a clutch. He is a brutal out. He is a really tough beat. And I think, you know, the line movement, we have both the same feeling. Mean Chad, honestly, it sounds stupid people,

but we've just been burned so many times when the line flips. It just, for some reason, it just burns us. But I'm going to touch the stove again. I think you're going to touch it with me where it's like, I know it's hot. I got to touch it, though. I just love the Ravens at this number, anything below two. So at one and a half, I'm still going to bet it. So, yeah, it's people out there, you can shop around. There's still some plus one and a halfs out there. Tease it.

You have to at least tease it. Lamar, as a dog and teasers, 14 to 1 as a teaser. So getting him up to 7.5, there is no way he loses this game by more than a touchdown. Horrible, week one against the spread, 12 and 5 against the spread. So, you know, he's just a guy that gets his guys ready to prepare for week one. You know, me and Chad, both of the Chiefs last year. We won that bet by a heel, right? That was a really lucky bet, and the Ravens lost.

I can't see the lightning strike twice here. I mean, they were just so, so, so fired up about facing this Bill's team who they lost from the playoffs last year, and we talked about it. I just, I know the bills, it's the last night, Orchard Park, last opening game ever at that historical ballpark, right? What is it, in 1973, the fucking stadium open? So I get it's going to be a historical, over-emotional night. If you just want to take Ravens first half, we always talk we love Lamar as a first half bet.

Go for it. But for us, and contest-wise, that's what we're talking here, taking them in the contest, taking them as a straight-up bet. I just love the Ravens. And I'm almost positive. It's locked into plus one and a half in our contest. So I'm almost positive on Sunday morning. That'll be one of our bets. Well, let's break it down right now.

I think on Sunday morning, four games that we feel great about after this conversation. Detroit, Cleveland. Baltimore. 50% of us feel great about Tennessee and 50% of us are going to go along just for the drama. And then we're probably going to be deciding between what are the best lines, how things have moved, either between a Las Vegas or a Jets or maybe a commanders, maybe a Seattle. We'll see how things are going. or there might be other games that have moved and injuries have caused us to rethink things. But I think that's where we stand right now.

Again, we will lock all this down Sunday morning, 11 a.m., Sharper Square, YouTube channel. Simon, right now, as we do this show, biggest bet of the week so far. Because I told you I've been betting this for months, months and months, months. Browns. I would have to definitely go through my book.

I'm assuming once I go through, I count all my tickets, unfortunately, it's probably going to be Dallas. Like I just, I know. I was hitting that number for months, but I'm assuming come Sunday, like I'm going to go through it now.

I know I'm getting close with the Ravens, and I'm getting really close with the Browns. Like again, Browns were six and a half at one point. That's the number I've just been hammering for months. Hammered at six, kept hitting at five and a half. I'm still betting at five.

So that's going to be a gross day when I wake up. And my two biggest bets are going to be Browns and Dallas. But yeah, I do want to say with this, like Chad said, these early, early weeks, guys, don't go crazy with your bankroll, right? Pick your spots. Be smart. Very long season. Money management is literally 50% of the battle. You don't become a professional without a really strict money management.

And so I'm highly aggressive. I've won big. I got the equity to burn this way. If you got a small bankroll, you have the power. Pick your spots. Don't force bets. I say all the time of the show. Me and Chad have to pick five for contest.

Most weeks, I do three big bets or less, right? I'm picking my spots where I might do a total of spread props, but I'm picking my spots. I'm not forcing in five against the spread bets. The NFL is the sharpest market. You want to go and make a living, go back college football. There's about 300 freaking football teams. This is a lot of different.

32 teams are really stiff markets. So please, people, money management, be smart with their money. Let's go. Dude, I'll tell you two stories. So you know, I'm working on this book and I'm spending time with a lot of professional betters, including a guy I was with last weekend in Costa Rica. He's a big college football better, a big baseball better. And when I say big, I mean, like from baseball,

point of view, I think there might be five groups that are competitive with him. And I think for the year, he's maybe made 100 bets on baseball. Now, the volume he's betting when he actually makes his bed is huge. He is so selective and discipline. And I sat with him on college football Saturday all day. So selective. It is like half point difference, point difference. He'll just walk away. Does not get sort of lost in the midst the way Simon is talking about. Bankroll management. The best way to make money, don't lose money. Simon, what is our money line round robin, underdog parlay?

Here's what I think. Saints, Panthers, Lions, Raiders, Cleveland. Agree or disagree? I'll switch out the Raiders. for the Jets. All right. Saints. Saints.

Panthers. Jets. Lions. Cleveland. All right. Survivor. I think you said it a couple times. We're going with Denver.

Got it. And then Sharp versus Square. I'm going Miami. You go to Miami? Yeah. Can't use brands against. I guess, man, I already have so much investing in the Titans. I mean, I'm literally, I can't, should I triple down on them?

Yeah, you know what? I'll have some brass balls. Go with the Titans. No, I'm going Ravens. I love the Ravens. And it's still a good number. There's still plus one and a half's out there, but I'll take the Hard Rock. I'll take the minus one on the show.

All right. So I'm doing Miami. I think I got one and a half or one. What's Hard Rock say right now about Miami? I'm almost positive. They move to, let me pull it up. They move to plus one. Yep, plus one.

Plus one, dear Ravens minus one. All right, folks. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning, 11 a.m. Eastern as you eavesdrop on a very intimate conversation between me and Simon in which we will panic, make utterly human decisions, and regret the rest of the day. Then we will be back in Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, 7.5. 30 p.m. Eastern to recap all that misery. Again, all these are available on the audio feeds as well, Sharper Square, Apple Podcasts. And Spotify, like this video, subscribe to the channel, download us from

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