The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - BEST NFL Week 2 bets: Eagles-Chiefs, Giants-Cowboys, Seahawks-Steelers, Bears-Lions & more

Episode Date: September 11, 2025

Expert bettor Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter narrow down their best bets for NFL Week 2. They discuss all the big football matchups: Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets, New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks vs Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions, and more. Plus, Simon tells you what he's hearing about his bets on the Wiseguy Hotline. Please make sure to rate and review the show on Apple and Spotify. All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet. Timeline: 02:00 - Intro 03:07 - Wiseguy hotline 08:00 - Browns-Ravens 11:53 - Giants-Cowboys  19:28 - Bears-Lions 22:56 - Bills-Jets 32:07 - Rams-Titans (Brass Balls Bet) 37:30 - Broncos-Colts 41:12 - Eagles-Chiefs  51:55 - Falcons-Vikings  1:02:42 - Patriots-Dolphins  1:10:45 - Jaguars-Bengals 1:18:37 - Moneyline Underdog Parlay 1:19:25 - Moneyline Favorites Parlay 1:20:19 - Survivor PickSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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secret history. I'm Danny Shapiro. And these are just a few of the stunning stories I'll be exploring on the 14th season of family secrets. He kind of shoved me out of the way and said, move. And he went out the front door and he jumped in a car and drove off. And that was the last time I saw him.

Listen to season 14 of Family Secrets on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys. Pay attention. I am Shad Milman. I am joined, as always, by my co-host, my PFF, my companion, my compadre, professional batter. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, what a week, brother. Dude.

Crazy week. We're feeling good, but like any professional outfit, you know what we do? We look past and we move forward. We get ready. We don't rest in our loyels. This is our Thursday week two episode. Going to narrow down the options on our quest to agree together as a team on our five. favorite picks for the week reminder subscribe to Sharp or Square on YouTube

Apple Pods Spotify wherever you get your pods let's get into it brother first got to check in wise guy hotline what are you waiting for and did I startle you yeah let's start with the games they disagree on chat let's start with get those out of the way. Last year, I mean, last week, I feel like we got a little lucky, right? We're on the right side of a lot of the disagreements. And that's how it is, right? The pro line, the dog is not always the right side. And me, Chad, we have that hard lesson ourselves. We really love these dogs. We have to remember chalk does win. It's, it's lining up to be another back and forth week this week. And so let's start with that Dallas game. I mean, I got a ton of calls.

It's just guys loving that Giants team even more. You know, I saw Bland got banged up, right? He's missing this game. It's a big deal, especially when you're going against guys like neighbors. But it's my whole point. It's Russell Wilson behind a bad offensive line. So I think maybe we'll talk a little bit more about that one. But yeah, pretty shocking all the calls I got about just more Giants love.

I was like, you didn't get burned last week. And they were like, ah, they make excuses, reasons why I didn't work out. And that's just how it is, right? when you're playing this number. So I got some good trends that back up the Cowboys in that spot. I'm excited to dig into this game. This Giants team feels like the wise guy version of the Panthers last year. And I don't get it.

And so I'm excited for us to hear your trends and dig in a little bit. And I'm excited that we're not getting suckered in by the Giants. I agree. And yeah, this is one of the, those, like Chad's saying, we'll talk more about it. But this Chief's game, tons of calls about our luck. Maybe it's more of me. My love for the Eagles of the spot.

And I'm excited to break that down, that one down with you because it's making me hold even more firm in my position. Wow. So, yeah, that Eagles Chiefs game, that is going to be pros versus shows. Public is going to be heavy, heavy on the Eagles side. and basically any professional I've talked to for the most part is on the chief side. I've heard their reasoning. I'm excited to give more of mine on this show about why I'm staying where I am.

And the last one that they hated our pick on, and it's more directed once again towards me again, is my love for Minnesota. I owned up to it to them on the phone as well. My love and the Vikings, I still love it. I had gotten info about Drake London, potentially missing this game and him being, really banged up. He was limited yesterday in practice, and I watched him practice. He looked good.

He made a really good catch. Now, I don't know if that's just because it's practice and everything like that, but he moved well, in my opinion. I don't know if that shoulder is that big of an injury where I. When I got the info, I was like, oh, my God, he's on the road now appendix without his number one receiver, Drake London.

This number is going to balloon up. It's gone the other way, as you see. It's dropped now from four and a half to four to three and a half. And now Har Rock is down to three. that's another game I'm sure we'll talk more about but yeah yeah the the ones they love obviously for our early sides you know we do a sunday night show people if you want to check it out it's it's a really fun show we break down our past games from the week and we give out early lines we nailed a couple right or i really did in my my early bets when I look back where I gave out colts plus three

the pros love it they're down to one and a half and I've talked to a lot of pros that love that one so I'm sure we're going to break that game down even more people are messaging me panicking, like, aren't you over, overvaluing this Colts team? And we talk about that. It's all about the line, right? Like, if there was threes out there, even our last show, there was still two and a halfs out there. We just go where the value was, and that to me was the early line value. And another one, Titans, we love them, talked to a bunch of pros, joined us on this bandwagon, another ugly dog at home.

That's a pretty big spread. Jets, another game, I think we're going to break down. Got a bunch of calls about the love for that. And then, you know, finally, Chad's love, Seahawks. I got a bunch of calls about that. So, yeah, I'm excited to break all these games down. Just a lot of love on the dogs this weekend. I'm not shocked about the calls we got about the lines we hate,

but like we say, the public does win. I have to pick and choose my spots where I try to ride with the public and the favorites in these spots. I love it. I love it. They really did get into every game that we're going to talk about. Okay. And it's great.

And what's interesting is, I think, other than the Chiefs Eagles, I think you and I are pretty aligned on a couple of the games that they hate and we love. But let's get into it. First game, Cleveland at Baltimore, this had been on our radar. The line currently at Hard Rock Bet is 12. It opened to 12.5. Got that down all the way down to 11.5 and has now come back up. You know, it's so hard, right? This is when a one-game sample size wreaks total havoc.

Like, trying to dissect and translate the weaknesses of the SINCY defense that, or the SINCY offense that made the Cleveland defense so dominant, and if there are any similarities with the Ravens offense, of which there are not. Meanwhile, how can Joe Flacco take advantage of a Ravens' DeVos? defense. When we were dissecting the Cincinnati game, we believe the narrative for the Browns in that game had to be slow the game down, rely on the defense, rely on Joe Flacco not making mistakes, try to run the ball. I think it's much harder to do that against this Ravens team. As big as this number is, I don't love it. And there's not even like a ton of trends to back up playing this big. of a dog in the division. Everything, I feel like we will find five games

that we like more. Yeah. And I definitely went back and watched that since the game. I heard from a lot of Bengals fans. And they're right. I did misspoke that I said that, you know, the Browns were able to run the ball

really well against them. They weren't. They averaged two yards per carry. But what they did attack them was the running backs catching the ball out of the backfield. Like that was, that's what I missed. Because every time I felt like I look

and we'll look at that game. All of a sudden, it was the rookie, Samson, I believe his name was rushing for nine yards, but it was him receiving the ball of the backfield. So that was a fair criticism. Chad, I don't know if he's going to get Crow yet on Stewart because he did look really good in the game against the run. He played well. I'll give that kid credit. We had a lot of questions about him.

So far, one game in, he looks like a first round pick. Oh, you're talking about Shamar Stewart, the rookie for the Bengals. Okay. Yeah, you notoriously have hated the curve. Oh, yeah. I've been against this pick from the beginning. It felt like a classic Mike Mamula pick. Let's choose an athlete, even though he didn't produce in college.

So I agree with you. I will have to eat it. Yeah, he might hit. He looks good. And, you know, when I break this one down, you brought it up. There's trends that actually say this is bad picking a dog, this big indivision on the road early in the season. So, you know, same thing as you. went on the internet, tried to find as much as I could about this exact spot.

And it's true. I think I'm just too attached to this Brown's team because I just see the ways they can keep this close. Right. That's secondary. They have issues right now, right? That is the weakness of those Ravens team. It's fair to say. And this Brown's team, we saw, they have weapons on the outside that can, you know, go downfield and make plays.

So, tempting. I'm tempted to be right. There's other games I like more. So I'll stay away from it. And, you know, at the end, you know, if you want to talk about Ravens for Survivor, we can do that because, you know, this is a good spot for them. I do, but yeah, this number looked like it was heading towards nine and a half, 10. I thought we were going to get a Ravens number. It's gone the other way. It's up to 12 now.

So if it gets up to 13, I'll be the guy on Sunday throwing one out on the Browns, but not forcing this one in the contest either. Yeah, and the move actually tells me when there's midweek moves like this, as much as there is sort of an expanded universe of sports betters, when I see a move from 11 or and a half back to 12. That to me tells me there's wise guy money coming in on the Ravens. And so that makes me a little bit more hesitant. New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys. This numbers down to five. You mentioned the wise guys have been coming into the Giants. I don't get it. It's moved down also because of Duran Bland and the injury. I'm with you. I feel like we got so burned last year playing numbers with really. ineffective quarterbacks. And I mentioned the Panthers as a team that last year we got burned

again and again and again. Similarities here abound. Like they've got a really ineffective quarterback. They've got a really bad offensive line. I think those two things are dual Achilles heel that counteract any benefit from having Malik neighbors against a depleted secondary for the Cowboys or for that matter a really good defensive line for the Giants. I'm just not buying. And I was more impressed with Dak Prescott than looking back than I even was after the game. And if not for a couple drops by CD Lamb, they might win that game. So I'm getting more and more comfortable with the Cowboys here.

I bet him at five and a half and I'm bummed because if I had known about the bland injury and, you know, could have gotten more half point of value. But I don't mind the Cowboys here. Yeah, it's moving. I mean, it's it's five and a half, or minus five right now at Hard Rock. It's getting down a four and a half it looks like here in Jersey at Hard Rock. Like the number is leaning towards that way. And we just talked about that's professional money coming in pretty heavy, moving it. And we didn't even talk about week one, you know, I tend to like to bet with the book, right?

That's to me always the smart, safer option. And I feel more confident in my position if I am with a book. But I go against them, obviously, in a ton of spots. But last week, we didn't really talk about it. historical, right? It was probably one of the worst weeks ever to start the year for the betting public. There were three and 13 against

the spread with teams that close his favorites. O and five on the teams that were getting more than 60% of the bet, right? So it was just nightmare. One in ten total on teams, 60% or more against the, like how much money was getting

bet on them in the tickets in week one. Just historical, horrible week one for the betting public on these favorites. So it is a little scary. We're stepping into it on this one, right? We're kind of, we always joke about this with the roulette wheel, but it's true where it's like, okay, black has just hit 10 times in a row. We're going red here, right?

That's what this kind of spot is because this is very public. Like, we both know that. This is. It's very public. Yeah, I talked to a lot of these bookmakers and they're like, this is going to be one of the ones we need. But one of the ones they needed just like last week, right? last week there was no big upset, which was shocking how bad the public did.

Straight up, favorites won 13 and 3 straight up. So just like last year, and we're going to talk about that. I think it's the end of days for our underdog winning land run, Robin. I can't keep losing money, Chad. It feels like two years now. I'm just getting killed because the favorites are just, they're not covering where they're winning. It's very bizarre right now. Yeah, yeah.

You know, this exact spot is really a Dak Prescott. And I get those additions. There are injuries to this Cowboys defense. But when you dive into the DAC Prescott numbers, it's pretty amazing how good he's been in his career against the Giants' ex-spot. So he's 13 and 2 straight up, 10 and 5, 8-DS against the Giants. His only two losses in his career against the Giants, Jed,

was against Eli Manning. So he's won 13 straight against the Giants. So I got a ton of calls and messages about, it's probably true. I'd have to go back and look, but me and Chad, this is our seventh season. Three years we've lost Survivor on the Cowboys. They are literally,

there are a black widow. Every time we touch and we die. Like, they get us every time. And this is why I'm not saying I'm forcing it in, but I'm like, this is the best spot and we'll just get it out of the way. We'll be done with the Cowboys in week two. But I've heard a lot of worried fans

and listeners of the show being like, you guys always take the Cowboys in the spot and get burned. But those Prescott's numbers make me really confident. And, you know, we've seen it time and time again. They could come out sluggish in the first half. Like I heard some pros to talk about that trend about these teams early in the year playing like a Thursday on a Friday, then playing against a team on short rest. The team on short rest actually comes out more prepared, it looks like, and more in rhythm in the first half of those games. Okay, take Giants first half them. But full game, I'm very confident in this Cowboys team.

I think it's a great number, getting great value. And it comes back to just, I just don't know how Russell Wilson, that offense moves and scores the ball. And, you know, Prescott, that was a loss. That team is really, really, really trying to get the taste out of their mouth. Like that's just a great spot to back them here. Even if they're not as good as I predict them to be, I think to the general public, they are better than most people realize.

It just goes to show you what a massive difference. And we talked about this. effective, competent, better than competent quarterback play can matter. Like how much of a difference it makes, right? A diminished offensive line, but if Dak can move in the pocket and get outside the pocket and make some plays or keep the play alive, that makes a difference versus, hey, Russell Wilson, who's just become completely ineffective in a shell of what he used to be. I will pick a bone with one thing you said.

I'm not a huge fan of the quarterback versus team stats because these teams change so much year after year after year. There's no reason to think like he's going to be better against the Giants than he is against any other team. He has more chances to beat the Giants. The Cowboys have generally been better than the Giants since the Eli Manning days. I will say, though, DAC is profitable.

And again, for me, like, the trends are the last thing. I use to influence my decision making and my bet like it's so much more about on-field and situational analysis. They're the supporting evidence. They're not the argument. DAC is profitable as a favorite in this spot, meaning in the division. I did the math on this yesterday when the line was at six. Six or more he's profitable. You lower it and it's even more profitable. So not hating this cowboy spot. Not hating it at all. I'm going to give another trend just because you just said you did it's like trends. I'm going to give some more trends now.

I got another trend for this game. No sacks taken. So Jordan loves fits this. The Jax fit this. The Cowboys fit this in week one. Teams that don't give up a sack. They are 46, 32, and 1 against the rest of 15%. In week 2 since 2003.

That's 15 and 4 since 2018 against the spread in this exact spot. Shout out there, our guy, Evan Abrams, on useless trends that I just love. I love that trend. That is a useless trend. I love it though. That is like whether or not a guy shows that teams that have good offensive lines that played well in week one,

technically carries over to week two that the offensive line plays well and doesn't give up sac. That is the definition of correlation, not causation. I love the trend. Do not accept that trend. We're literally on all three of those teams. I cracked it up as soon as I saw it,

I was like, oh. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band.

before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say,

Hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas

on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, Not quite.

Unhumor Me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in 10. tennis. And I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs and on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay. Jenschen went. I mean, she went down to three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lena Rubakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on

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Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series

because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash will get that thing.

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Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I love that trend. Detroit minus 6 against the Bears. Look, This has been motoring, right? It was at four and a half on Sunday, settled in at five and a half for a few days. It finally moved to six in the past, say, 12 hours.

Tricky, tricky, tricky. Like, all bias aside, because I'm not as much of a Bears fan as I am, which is as big as it can be. I'm not a Caleb fatalist. Like there were moments he looked good on Monday. There were moments the Bears' defense looked great. There were moments that Ben Johnson looked like he could be an NFL coach.

And there were moments where everything looked like it was the Bears playing like the Bears. But like, can it get better in time to be competitive against a much more seasoned staff and head coach and Dan Campbell? An overall more talented roster that knows it got embarrassed and knows what needs to be. done, this move feels more like opinion and move on the number to me than anything anyone can see in any of the matchups. Because that lion's defensive, offensive line was truly trash. So they got a lot to fix in a very short period of time. It feels like it's just belief in the lion's ability to fix things faster.

Yeah. Once again, it's Sunday night show. Talked about lines minus four and a half for the exact reason that this was, but what was probably going to happen if the bears fell on their faces, even though the lines look terrible, the public will trust them much more than they're going to trust this Bears team and its rookie head coach who's now on the road facing his former employee. This has got to be, I mean, I know he's trying to play a cool.

This has got to be this everything game. And yeah, I get a cherry you're coming from. I'm staying away from it. I got my little four and a half. And I just, I don't want to either be on either side. I mean, there's six and a halfs out there now on this bear. team. So yeah, it's tempting. They're tempting because honestly, if you go back and watch last year, this Bears team, shockingly played

pretty tough against this Lions team that had all the pieces. So pretty interesting matchup. And I do get why the professionals have come in and the public has joined them. This is now, you know, all the teasers are throwing this Lions team in right. No way Lions go 0 and 2, especially against the Bears on a short week on the road. And Caleb's just missing open throws. People are just so down on them. So I,

people can tell I want to be on the Bears. They'll get me there. Once again, another number. Six and a half, seven come Sunday. I'll throw a little on and try to hit the middle as well. But yeah, that's just crazy the movement of this line. That it's moved so much.

And at what point does the hate go too far on this Bears team? But I get it. Rookie coach on the road in a revenge spot form. I just, is it taking me in the right place, Chad? That's what we just don't know. It's, is going to be able to separate.

the emotions from what's in front of him. And it's such a huge spot for him. And he knows start 0 and 2. It's going to be tough in Chicago for this Bears team. All right. Look, we were decidedly square in our love for the Cowboys and are hoping that the number continues to drop. Buffalo at New York Jets.

New York Jets are six and a half at Hard Rock. Every time this game touches seven, It gets back down to six. On Tuesday, I leaned bills a little bit, and you talked me out of it. Another 48 hours of research. I'm coming around to your side. Simon, this is a rock in a hard place, hard rock bet of the week. New York Jets.

Are we sharp or are we square? We both feel like this is sharp, but our fear is it's slow. becoming a little square. So right now I'll say it's sharp, but it's I'm shocked the love of this Jets team, like Chad just said, I thought we would be getting a 7-7-5. But I'm happy to take the 6-5

but I just can't believe the public's joining us. To me, this is what they love, right? Josh Allen, huge win. Sunday night. Everyone's going to be loving this guy. MVP talk, right? He's the best in football. Jets blew a game. I just thought everyone would be all over

this bill's team. So, yeah, the professional money, like Chad's saying, it is coming in heavy on this Jets team every time it touches seven. So we both love it. I'm going to take the six and a half. And it really is just about, you know, the injuries to this bill's team and their secondary. And this Jets defense, I get people having major questions about them. And now they're going from getting dominated by Aaron Rogers to now they're playing, you know, one of the best quarterbacks in football. And Josh Allen, I get the hesitation.

but it's really about the number, right? It feels like we're always going to have the option to get this back door here. So, yeah, this is a game we both love. And, you know, the seven we were open before, I just don't think we're ever going to get there. I think six and a half, most people listen to the show, that's the best number we're going to be able to get.

I'm fine taking it. That's interesting because I feel like I was going to say, please, please, please, please be patient and be aware. Because it has popped to seven enough that it could get back there. And this to me feels like you've got to be on the lookout on Sunday morning when the public comes in for the bills. Because most people are not tracking this and thinking about it all throughout the week. They saw the bills win on Sunday night in dramatic fashion.

They saw the jets lose like the jets normally lose. They're not digging in the way we dig in. And they're going to bet on Sunday morning at all the big places you can bet. And that's when the move could happen to seven. I'd almost rather risk waiting for the seven and getting that number than and then have to bet a six. If I have to bet a six on Sunday versus landing on the six and a half. I mean, I guess I could take the six and a half and bet it again at seven. But I'd rather be patient and just try to get a seven.

I just don't ever get there because like I talked to two different bookmakers just named. They basically just said, yeah, it's, you know, all the teasers parallel. all the public. Yes, they're on the bills, but it is heavy, heavy professional Jets money. And the money's not even close how much. So they're going to, they might end up needing the bills. That's the fear for me here, Chad. It's like this might be a spot where they might need the bills because it's so much more professional money coming to the jet. So I, that's why I'm just hesitant that I get back to seven. But like you said, certain books, more public books, they could because they're going to need, they'll need Jets money. They're not taking professional

money. All they're getting is bills, public money, especially at, six and a half so yeah uh that's that's a fair argument you can be patient and hope it gets back to the seven at certain books the game itself it just feels like an advantage schematically for the jets regarding their run game against a bill's defense that their defensive backfield just was not very good they were not great even their front those gaping holes i don't if you saw clips people playing these clips online it's these massive hold for der kanger's great Henry is, it would just be him and the safety one-on-one, which Derek Henry, we saw, it win every time. You try to take an angle on a guy who weighs, you know, 280 and muscle,

6-5, 6-4, they'll lose every time. It's just, Derek Henry's a freak. I also think there's an emotional element here. The bill's coming off that win against one of the two other teams that have been their rival. And the Jets feeling themselves, right? Like, they came into that Steelers game super confident. They wanted to prove who they were. And then they lost. And I feel like this is another chance to show the world that the jets are different. So the emotional swings, this means so much more to the jets than it does to the bills. And they get it at home. Like it's just, it feels like a really good spot for us. I agree. Seattle Plus 3 at Pittsburgh. I feel like you're giving me credit for this.

this felt to me like a sharp play all week. And the juice on this game had been at minus 115 since we did our Tuesday show. It's come down back to minus 110. But that initial juice move told me that the wise guys were coming in on the Seahawks. Clearly, I'm very sharp here, right? Yeah, I love the Seahawks too. are I feel like we're on the same page of what we like about them in this matchup and the fact that their defense could be so much better than what we saw from that Jets team

and the way that this defense can you know give Aaron Rogers problem we saw Aaron Rogers I think he got sacked three or four times in that game four times yeah so you know there's there's a lot of things to like about the Seahawks defense and then we talked offensively they should have a much better time running against this Pittsburgh team that just like the bills has tons of injuries to their secondary. And, you know, the fear is Sam Darnock, I know it's crazy to say, can he really attack them and affect them the same way? Justin Fields is it, of course, not right?

The Justin Fields is the threat of the run. It's just light years different than Sam Darnold. But, you know, the way this defense is on Pittsburgh, we obviously think they'll be better, but how much better is the question? And, you know, I know Chad, again, hates these trends. this is just one I saw that would just make sense because it feels like a Tomlin trend. Like when I read it, I go, okay,

no other team would have this type of trend, but Tomlin would. They basically allowed 32 points against the Jets, right? This Pittsburgh's defense. He's 28, 11, and 1 against the spreads. 72% the Steelers in the exact spot the week after their defense gives up 32 points.

Even more so scary. He's 10 and 1. Tomlin's 10 and 1 his exact spot. about the last 11. So it's a thing where I guess his defense, he just gives them hell weak. Like even though they won 32 points, I'm assuming that's a Tomlin stat where it's like,

it doesn't matter if they win or whatever. If they give 32, it's as if they lost, especially if the defense and he gets them right. But I'm still very confident in the Seahawks team and how they match up and about the number. But that one jumped out to me. It was like, oh, my God, that is such a Tomlin stat.

Anytime his defense gets lit up, they get right the next week. I mean, got, 72% in this exact spots. Usually a trend that scares me in chat off, but I think we're too deep. We both just love the Calks in the number. So two and a half, three. I love them both.

I think the Steelers are just being overvalued here. I think that the market looks at the Steelers and knows that the public is going to come in on them because they ultimately won in a high scoring game. And they saw Aaron Rogers had four-tash-down-passed. To me, that's the difference. Aaron Rogers, that was incredible. But, like, I don't think they're unpacking.

Aaron Rogers wasn't perfect in that game. No throws, no attempts more than 20 yards, got sacked. Got sacked. There's a lot of neat stuff, and it just killed the Jets. It was crazy. Yeah. And so to me, the Steelers kind of got lucky in that game. The Jets were a little bit unlucky.

And this is a spot where maybe the Seahawks, who are a little bit unlucky in their game against the Niners, can take advantage and equalize some of that karma, so to speak. and the value is in the Seahawks at plus three. So right now, like, you and I have kind of aligned on three games. Dallas, Jets, and Seattle, guess what we got coming up? Hopefully it's in Miami. That's what I'm waiting for.

I didn't put Miami on the list. Oh, we got it. I got some great stats about that game. We'll talk about it. I've generally been looking for ways to buy out of that bet the whole freaking week. That's fine. I'll tell you why it's a good idea to buy out of it. L.A. Tennessee, the Rams at the Tennessee Titans. Last week, this was our brass balls.

You nailed it. Worked out perfectly. Guess what, Simon? Tennessee Titans plus five and a half for the second week in a row. This team is our brass balls. Bet of the week. Tell everyone why this is a very sharp bet, Simon. there's a bunch of reasons it's it's honestly i've heard from pros chat on the rams shockingly and i

thought this would just be total pros versus shows right every pro would be on the titans everyone of their grandma like i feel like everyone i talked with a sports book the other day was just basically oh yeah got got the rams in my teaser got them the bills like that was the stack right these because it's the perfect number to bet it down um but yeah this i think we're in the same page where it's like, okay, if we do a favorite money line run Robin, I'd put the Rams in there, right? McVeigh does win in this spot. But what's so sharp about it to me, like, is just the number. It's a sharp number. The five and a half, we were hoping Hard Rock would get the six. They've obviously taken some smart money because there are some sixes out there, but,

you know, five and a half to me, it's going to stay down. I just don't see it going back up and I see it coming down lower. And it's, this, what's happened to the Giants line, I thought was going to happen with this Tennessee line. I thought people would go, watch the Cam Ward tape against that Denver defense. That is really good. And see, it was his teammates and the coaching that let him down. Like, he made big plays in either penalties, drops, or bad coaching, ruined it. And it's like, yeah, he's got weird arm angles. He throws it a little too fast in certain spots. I agree with some of that criticism. But overall, if you just look at his stats, he looked like he was horrible. and Tennessee was super lucky to cover that number

when it's like they were crazy, unlucky, and the fear for me here is the coaching. Because I've gone back and watched the game. It's sick. I just like the punishment. I watch it twice now that Denver, Tennessee game, and I just can't get over Cali and the coaching mishaps and some of the stuff he does.

And, you know, just last year I think back to him, I will love us and he'd roll his eyes and be like, this kid's so stupid. The stuff this kid does, how stupid is he? It's like, dude, you're a, what I do you too. Like some of the stuff he does just, man,

he's like he failed to me. He failed Ward in that game. And we got very lucky in our survivor pool that we got out of there with a win. And, uh, this number probably should be four, three and a half. We're getting a bump because of how bad came Ward and this team look to the general

public. But, um, you know, the pros, they've kept it under six. We'll take the five, five and a half.

And, uh, we talk all the time. And this Rams team, they're actually kind of great in this spot, right? Traveling from west to east, they're actually not that terrible. But we've seen it, right? Stafford is different when he's playing outdoors in these type of games. And, yeah, I'm fired up to see what the Tennessee crowd is like because right now the trends are not good about these favorites on the road.

I think last week, favorites on the road were five and one straight up. So home field just isn't what it used to be. But Tennessee here with the rookie quarterback, I'm hoping the fans can bring it and give Stafford. offense some problems on the offense because they have to, right? This is Stafford. If it's not loud and they're not messing with this snap count, he's going to have his way with this tendency defense. This is not Bo Nix. This is Stafford with Puka and Adams. And that's just, we saw the last game. That's a great offense. They just, you know, Houston's a really good defense. So yeah, love this number, chat. I think, you know, what you talked about. I'm glad we're in sync in another

game that's, you know, I could have seen you been on the Rams. I could see why people want to take the Rams this spot, but I think Tennessee at this number. It's crazy. Two and 15 against the spread last year. We think they're going to start two and oh against the spread this season. Well, look, the Rams also have some injuries in the interior of their offensive line. And the one thing we saw the Titans doing well last week, Jeffrey Simmons was amazing. And he was just crushing. Yeah, he was incredible. Crushing the pocket. And so if he's able to do that against the Rams, against Matthew Stafford, who's becoming more and more immobile, and who was just not that great against the Texans defense

that was kind of in his grill the whole game from different angles. That bodes well. It's funny how NFL sort of analysis circles this week, there becomes a theme that is pretty predominant if you pay a lot of attention to this, beyond like the big games, right? Beyond the Eagles chiefs and beyond any sort of brand name stuff, the themes that evolved this week, which you nailed on, I think, Sunday or Tuesday, Cam Ward was much, much better than people expected.

His pocket presence was great. He was adjusting his protections. Like, he just did a much better job. He was failed by his coaches. That is the big deal. that's the risk here that we're playing. But look, when you're playing a bad team as an underdog, you're taking a risk.

It's betting. It's not your thinking. So I'm with you. I'm with you. It's her breastballs better than one. Denver at Indianapolis, you mentioned it off the top, wise guy hotline. This line has moved from three to plus one and a half.

To me, it's out at this number. It's fascinating to watch the line movement on this, though, Simon. Like, it really indicates to me a little bit of a battle of opinions that had been happening at 1230 on Tuesday it was two and a half 30 minutes later it moved to two an hour later it moved back to two and a half the next day wednesday moved back down to two at 430 two minutes later it went back to two and half literally 432 an hour later it went down to two three minutes after that it went to two and a half and then 20 minutes later it went to two again finally overnight it's like somebody

just said screw this and it's now down to one and a half across the board i don't have a lean i don't think it's going to be one of the games that we want to play most strongly as one of our five favorites you liked it at two you've been on this at three obviously the sharp side has been the colts as it stands do you have an opinion chad you non-believer you don't believe in uh indiana jones uh yeah it's the sharp side colts right it's we're betting on a number on a team that we see what their identity is going to be. And that's what I love about. And where Bo Nix, we talked about it.

You saw the adjustment made by Tennessee. And I believe we're going to see it by Indianapolis that he does have weaknesses. You can attack or frustrate him. And there's things you're going to exploit. But I get your hesitation here, right? It's just a number. We miss the best of the number here. That's fair.

Like, if it was two and a half, obviously, be much more confident. and the three, like I said, on Sunday night, you know, that was three at Hard Rock. There was three and a halfs all over. And that's my whole point was like, this is going to have to come down. There's no way the professionals come in on the Broncos at minus three. Chad just told you they've been hitting this Broncos side at the minus one and a half.

They've been hitting it at the two. Now they've seen that, you know, it's the public side, this Broncos side. So the real professional money, the heavy money has put this now one and a half. and I agree with you. It's, we don't have to force it in there. I do like this, I do like this cold side. And like I embedding into it, but like Chad said, I'm bet I'm embedded a better number than this.

So I'm not going to stand up my feet here and be like, you have to take this one and a half. But it's like, man, I just have major questions about that Broncos team. And I think they got very lucky last week that they did face our rookie quarterback on that defensive side because he had windows. I don't know how great that run defense is going to be either. like, you know, Pollard, that fumble, just a total killer of a drive for that Tennessee team. I just can't see Taylor putting them that bad out of a spot, right?

I feel like that last fumble I really remember of his was the one that cost me in Chad, an insane amount of money, him dropping it right before he was scrolled in for a touchdown against, I believe, this same exact Broncos team. So I think the last time they played, they were about to go up like, what was it, Chad, 21 or 20 to 3. He drops that ball. I don't think they score another points to this Colts team. So that's, to me, it's something that has to be on their mind as well. And yeah, if it's two and a half in your contest, I'm going to be tempted.

I'll see if it isn't ours to make chat played on Sunday. You'll have to check it out, tune in and see. But as we sit here right now, one and a half, if you want to bet it, I don't hate the number. I'm still going to take it most likely. I'm going to try to be patient on this one as well and hope we get back to that key number of two, just because there are some pros on that Denver side that could at your book bump this back up to two. We got to talk about the chiefs and the Eagles because you mentioned it off the top. There is a very clear divide here.

And this line has moved to full three points since we first discussed it on Sunday night. You leaned Eagles when they were one and a half point dogs. Everyone is piling on this ship. How far is too far to now think that the chiefs are, are plus one and a half point dogs, and we still want to bet the Eagles. Simon, this is the show Sharper Square. It feels to me like the Sharp Side is the Chiefs,

and yet you want to be Quentin Tarantino Square on the Eagles. I know. I pick my spots. I pick my spots. I'm thinking I'm going square here, Chad. I'm pretty square because I. Break it down from me, because like to me, this is about the number and about the flip.

And I know the Eagles right now probably have more talent on their roster, but can we not, like, do we have such sort of recency bias that we're forgetting? It's Patrick Mahomes and it's still Chris Jones and it's still Andy Reid and it's still Steve Spagnolo and it's still the chiefs at home. And like, it's not like this. this team isn't still a Super Bowl contender?

No, but we've seen that we got burned by that exact thinking in the Super Bowl. And it's my whole perspective of this is this number is what Chad just mentioned. It's the public reception of the chief's team of years gone. And you're the guy that just bangs a table about every year, teams are different. Aren't you, isn't that, aren't you that guy? So don't try to throw my words back in my head. I have to. I have to.

Because you say these things, I'm like, store that away for later because he will trip up. Don't point out my failings to me. Yeah, I just, I can't get over this number. And my only thought process of it is, well, you know, Eagles extended rest, maybe come out slow. We still have questions about their offense and, you know, some of their defensive pieces they missed. But it's like the biggest thing we're talking over is Jalen Carter. That's why I wasn't banging the table because I was in my mind thinking, this is a suspended Jalen Carter line.

That's why the Eagles to me opened at plus one and a half as a dog, right? That felt to me like a Jalen Carter line. Yeah. Because in my mind, I couldn't think what? They just lost their number one receiver and they're already down their number one receiver. So now they're down their number one, number two. He's throwing to Hollywood Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster here. And a 35, 36-year-old Travis Kelsey, it's like, that's what was so amazing that Chargers game

where it's like Mahomes to me is just, you're, crazy if you don't think this guy's one of the best quarterbacks or the best quarterback in football. Like the plays he makes with a talent around him, he's just so incredible. And that, to me, would be the magic of Mahomes and why you're taking him in this spot. You're betting on past success on these numbers.

And it's pretty easy to look it up. He's only been a dog one other time, this exact spot. So regular season at home as an underdog, two and a half point dog to the Buffalo Bills. He lost 24 to 20. So in my mind, a lot of stuff we're talking about, it's been him on the road and discredited. That's why he was a dog.

And he shows up on the road of those exact spots. To get him as a dog at home, this other team must be really, really good. Like to the books to make that number it is. So that's when we're, if the books did make it three, three and a half, which is closer to what I think it should be, I think they would be showing their hand where it's like, if you can't tell me the Eagles from that Super Bowl

haven't either flatlined or improved where this Chief's team as is feels like a step down, especially a team that we've all talked about it. They went to three straight Super Bowls, this team, mainly the core. That's a lot of miles on these guys. And they've always treated these early seasons, not as a preseason, right? They do win and cover early in the season.

They do win games. But we've seen they don't really turn it on until December and January. That's just how the Chiefs have been. these last couple years. So, yeah, I get it. They're going to be revenge spot, you know, Super Bowl, all that stuff. I just think it's like the big guy

putting his hand in the little kid's forehead. They just, they can't hit this Eagles team, right? They just, this, how he built this team to beat the Chiefs. Like, that was his one goal of mine. He didn't beat it. He didn't build this team for anyone in the NFC. The Eagles have never looked at

is that anyone in the NFC is a problem. So I just look at this matchup. You're getting a fired up Carter in this spot defensively. Eagles got an insane amount of pressure on deck, right? They were finger lengths away from getting strip sacks and getting the ball out of his hands without Carter. This is arguably a worse offensive line

than what the Dallas Cowboys had this week. We've seen even that Charter's defense had major pressure on Mahomes. So, yeah, it's all about the number here for me. I know it's the public side, but I think it's the book, Give me too much respect, professional, but it's giving me too much respect to Mahomes.

And I'm definitely looking forward to eating these words come Sunday because I know just about every pro I talk to they are lining up and take this chief side. I just think they're undervaluing this Eagles team and exactly what this spot is where it's like it's just not, they don't have the pieces.

If it's worthy and rice with Mahomes here and it's minus one honestly on the Chiefs, I would be very tempted to take that. It's like, okay, I can see them keeping up and putting pressure on the Eagles number two corner. Who's attacking the Eagles biggest weakness, the number two corner on this chief's team?

I mean, you have a name, Chad? I can't. There's nothing that scares me on the chief side. So it's just, it's very public. It's very chalky. I'm going to maybe force us winning on us and I'll own it because I know Chad's hesitant about it, but I just love the way this lines up for the Seagulls team. I was just going to say, I can't deny you your passion.

You feel so strongly about it. We're of course going to put this in. You're of course going to own it. It's, of course, going to be one of our five favorite picks. and we're going to ride or die with this Eagles team. In fact, I'm making a change right now. I'm making an executive change. This is our rock and a hard place, hard rock, better the week.

Because we will be so against what the conventional wisdom is in terms of betting on the chiefs as dogs. We will be so against the wise guys on this game. I am transitioning. This is going to be our rock and a hard place, hard rock, better the week. We're taking the Eagles minus one and a half. It's going to be one of our favorite five. boom lock it done hard rock loves it just more promo yeah exactly all right uh you know by the way speaking of hard rock let's hear a message from our friends over there we are crazy excited to

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Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee. in Virginia. All right, Simon. On Tuesday, your Simon says, don't forget, my Chad loves love with Seattle plus three, your Simon says at the time was Minnesota minus four and a half. It has come down and you intimated that you thought it was going to be Drake London not playing and he thought the line was going to go up. It actually did move up to five and a half in some spots, you know, after there was some feeling that Drake London was going to play. But it's been a steady drift downward, down to three and a half Wednesday afternoon.

Now it's at three after the news came out that not just Drake London, but Darne O'Ne practiced. They're both expected to play when they go to play at Minnesota. A lot of pros like in Atlanta also, I think, because they look at that Tampa Bay game and think, oh, when I break this down, Atlanta should have won that game. Like, a touchdown pass was missed because Darno Mooney wasn't on the field. His replacement couldn't make the play. So I think that there's also a huge difference in emotional swings.

I don't like Atlanta here now because I think all the value is gone, but I'm not leaning towards Minnesota on this one. doesn't feel like a final five to me. It's too bad. I was hoping. I was hoping you were going to love Atlanta. But this is just, I'm dug in. I'll admit it right away. I'm dug in. I do love this Viking side.

But it's brutal where it's like I was between that game and the Saints, it feels like from my early Simon says it was all based on injury. It's like I thought I was more leaning toward Purdy was just going to force it and play and where Drake London was going to miss because the information I got that with his shoulder. basically apparently he could put his arm above his head which when i heard that huge deal first clip i see yesterday is him catching the ball reaching both his arms way above his head snagging the ball there and it's just like oh my god i got i got god so that's the tough part of this business it's

it's a lot of hearsay um obviously wish i'd just done the saints right that four and a half now looking like a genius bet because it's down the three in that saints game with this match up it's gone against me and most pros i've talked to they they like this atlantic team. I think they view what Chad said. Pennix, when you really dive into numbers, he's actually pretty good. And he played pretty well, even under pressure in that game, like even moved off the spot, played pretty well.

My pushback, that Tampa D isn't that good. They're banged up as well. Like, you know, Vita Vez, I know he played in the game. He did some things while right against the run and stuff, but they weren't getting tons of pressure up the middle, which we've seen in college. That was what Pennock weakness was, right?

was getting the push up the middle. Like I said, this is a Flores defense. Like if you go through Pennix's career, his early career, he has put up numbers and played really well. I will give them credit for that. But you look at the teams he's face, this is going to be the toughest defensive test for him by far. And, you know, as much stuff I want to give crap to Caleb Bloom's about,

he had no run game. The Bears had no run game. That's what Flores. He had one game plan. That was a takeaway the bear's run game and make Caleb beat them. Caleb beat them with his legs. That was something he was not prepared for, right? Like they did take away his passes downfield

and different things like that, but the game turned to enjoy that game was by far Caleb's legs. Can Pennix do that against this Vikings defense? I don't know. Like, I know he had that rushing touchdown against Tampa, but I just think Caleb's a little bit more athletic. And, you know, this is at a point now where I love it. Like, it's good value to me, especially at minus three,

this Vikings team. and I'm going to learn pretty quick if I'm overvaluing JJ McCarthy and giving him too much credit in my model, giving them too many points. But, you know, I like this one. And I was hoping you were going to like Atlanta, because I'm almost positive they're going to be, you know, five and a half, four and a half in our contest.

And I was like, all right, perfect. Chad, we'll take this game. We lose and I'm just going to hit him over the head with a coconut. Be like, I told you I had this number at six. I moved it down, though, because now that Drake London is healthy, I do have it at four and a half. So still I have a good value. if you want to bet the Vikings right now.

And I like the spot. Once again, pros, I think the public, I'm almost positive they're all going to line up on this Atlanta side and take this road dog. And I just being a home favorite on Sunday night and you're with the book, to me, it's been a good spot to be in long term for me. So that's really the basis of it.

Like there's trends too, that point to people like in Atlanta. And I love trends. but here I just I can't get over this number. I just can't believe the value on this number of this Vikings team that the question was the quarterback. If the quarterback can put sustainable drives together,

I know it's only one quarter, but I think they found something, he found some confidence there that's going to carry them through the season and we talk all the time. I mean, Chad, we talked before the season. I didn't see it with JJ. I didn't have other professional betters telling me,

hey, this kid, when I watched their tape, when I watched their practice film, everything about them, it's not a dumb bet 80 to one for him to be MVP. And I was just like, oh, my, I can't see it. Like, I just can't see it because, again, he didn't play all last year. And it's a kid that just did not throw the ball in college. Like, there had to have been a reason horrible was not let him throw it. And at the end of the day,

we might learn it's just, you know, that's what Michigan's offense was. They were just a run first team, protect the ball. That was his job. And that's how they won. And we saw in that first game against the bear shot, I mean, you saw it, he can sling it. Like, that kid can throw the ball and fit into some window. So yeah, I can't get over the fact that this Atlanta team feels incredibly overrated and overvalied right now. And somehow after that win, this Vikings team is somehow becoming undervalued. And it's just playing the number minus three. I got to take it at this value. Yeah, I'd probably lean the Vikings at minus three. I don't think it'll be one of our five favorite bets. I'm glad you can't shame me about the Falcons. When it comes to J.J. McCarthy,

I'm reminded of the fact that the old joke, only one person could keep Michael Jordan under 20 points a game. It was Dean Smith. Do you get it? You're not laughing. Jim Harbaugh is the Dean Smith, J.J. McCarthy. There you go. Is the guy being held back?

Is it too old? Is the joke too old? I think it's too old. There might be a guy out there laughed at you. You never know. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name?

Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special.

So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas.

And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an

a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio. app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand because I competed there myself.

I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris, every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on clay. Jenchian win. I mean, she went down in three to Rovachina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lena Rubakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface.

Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. What's up, fam? This Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed.

And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup,

he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us every. everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying.

He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This was not that guy. You never know.

just wasn't you. All right, you do get to shame me about Miami. I have not listened. I have not talked about Miami. I have not said we need to put Miami in. I have been off Miami. I could not cash out of the bet. I apologize. But if you feel the need to shame me, go ahead and shame me about the Miami Dolphins. But you're not shaming me because I agree with everything you're saying. not letting you shame me. Well, I just want to talk if we might have to try to get the Patriots and are we missing out on opportunities here? That I think, yes. My hesitation is always going to be I'm not shy about it. I'm a Drake May hater. Like I get the hyped around Drake May, but you'd have these people on media talking about how much smarter they are than all of us and how great Drake

May is and how we just don't see what they see. And it's tiresome. It's like, Like, no one doubted this guy having a big arm and him being able to run the ball. Like he's athletic, but it's like, is he consistent? And the thing is, we just blame the weapons, right? You blame the coaching. You blame the offensive line. There's always going to be things to blame.

And we've just in the NFL, you know, it takes a little bit, right? That's why I would Drake May. I don't want to be too hard on him because I know it takes a little bit, but it's like to still think he's better than Jane Daniels. What are we doing here? Like that's such an asinine thing to try to project out heading of the season. And, you know, looking at this one, I really wanted to dive into the trends here because I was just thinking, what can I even find on Miami to Lake Miami?

And even that trees are your point. I know exactly what it is. Yeah, don't back Miami here. And do you want the trend? The one thing that sort of flagged for me immediately. Yeah, me with the one you found you loved. It's all about teams coming off a blowout. They're off a 20 plus point loss.

they're at home like this is when you bet that team that looked incredibly bad and so that's what made me immediately bet them i didn't think about you know offensive line issues i didn't think about secondary issues this to me was purely a number trend play that was it like i regret it i haven't bought out of it maybe i'll get lucky and it'll go my way and you know like everything else in the world when everything is anti-anti-anti-anti everybody is wrong but I don't love it enough to try to convince you the way you're trying to convince me on the Eagles or maybe the Vikings that it's going to be one of our five favorite plays I made the bet I'm sticking with it because I can't get any value cashing out but I made the bet because they were blown out and historically that says immediately

bet that team that there's going to be too much value on them and and essentially the line has stayed exactly where it was, it stayed where it was when I got the best of the number. It opened at one and a half, got it with two and a half, it's now back down to one and a half. It hasn't moved. So nothing I can do. I thought you were going to give me a trend.

I don't even know what that was, but I'll give you a team. The trend is you back the team. I can't remember the exact number. The trend is you back the team that is up a blowout loss. Teams in week one that lose by 21 points or more, and they're a favorite, obviously, in week two. They're 5, 12. in two against the spread since 2005.

And they're 0 and 3 against the spread since 2022 in this exact spot. Well, it's not the trend I have. Yeah. So like again, that's a fade Miami in the six spot, exact spot. So Miami Dolphins and score a single point in that first half against, you know, a Colts defense that we can agree. They're not that good. Like that was really on to it.

Like, too, we just couldn't stop turn the ball over. But it's like, okay, it's one bad game. the next game they'll be better. So again, no points in that first half. That same team that's listed as a favorite the next week, they're five and ten against this spread in this exact spot. And, you know, it's just bad for Miami. And when you see that their right tackle who's bad

and their right guard who's bad are out for this game and their backups are now in, oh my God. It's, you know, Nolan Williams, this is why you got him from the Eagles, if you're the Patriots. You have a guy that was giving problems of Gino Smith last week and that Raiders offensive line.

How does he not dominate this Miami offensive line? And once again, we've seen Tua. He doesn't have time. And you cover his first read. Like Chad said, he's bad and he struggles. And Tyreek, we've talked, football is this weird sport where if your whole mental aspect isn't right,

you're just not right. And it feels like Tua is not, I mean, Tyreek has not been right for two years now. And everyone's seen that stat. He's only had one game where he's had a catch for over 30 yards. And that was last year against the Jaguars on week one.

So Tyreek has just been a disaster. This Miami team's been a disaster. And if it wasn't Drake May, I really would be just hammering this line because it's like, if you have a comparable quarterback here that doesn't turn the ball over, it can move the ball semi down the field,

this should be a very easy cover for this Patriots team in Brable because they're just as desperate as Miami. They don't want to be 0-2 either. And, you know, Vrable, him bringing this whole personality of this team, this is that game where his personality for this team should show up, right? That game against the Raiders, that we talked with the Pete Carroll, you know, Gino-Smith combo, we wanted to see what it was going to be like. And we saw that that looked like a veteran team with a veteran coach and a veteran quarterback.

and Brable looked like the veteran coach with the inexperienced quarterback. Are we going to get burned here again? Because this is the Miami spot. That is also another fear where it's like this is usually where Tua plays well. But I told Chad, even on Tuesday's show, if this Miami team gets down seven or ten

and the booze start raining in from this Miami fans, it just all feels like it goes so sour, so quick because this team just feels like they have no confidence of their head coach. I mean, the sound bites from them this week have just been atrocious. And that's, again, I don't want to be sucking because that's such an immediate thing to hear the sound bites and be like easy bet, take the Patriots here.

But, you know, I'm looking at the splits on a couple of different sites, and it's pretty even. Like, there's pretty decent amount of people betting Miami in the spot or not. If this was me and Chad taking the Patriots and it was 90% of the tickets and 90% of the money were on the Patriots, and this number was still Dolphins minus one, me and you would book you're like red flags. either you take dolphins or you just stay away. It's not really like that.

It's honestly pretty even. There's some pros on the dolphin side. And it really is, I think, what Chad said, right? It's a team that got embarrassed. They are better on paper than this Patriots team. But it's like, man, on paper, I get it. But in real life, I don't know if they're that different. I don't really, like, and that's what this line reflects.

Like, it's the right line to me. And the better team to me is the dog right now. So I'll work on you even on Sunday. I'll see if I get you on the Patriots team. but it's it's just a line I've been betting. The trends point to it. I like that match. And also when I heard about the right guard and the right tag,

because yeah, I was right. This got up to two and I got Patriots too. As soon as that news came about the right side of their whole line being out, it just dropped right back down to one. So I just don't think it's moved enough. And it's going to be a line. I'll be terrified if it does flip the, because we hate betting flip lines.

But how does this not flip the Patriots? Who is betting heavy money on this Miami side? It's such a bad team right now. just everything negative. All right, look, we'll have this conversation on Sunday. It's a spirited debate. I'm moving aside, any kind of sort of feelings I might have because I've already bet it. I just want to make the best five picks we can make.

Sunday, it will have to be a conversation. Are we going to say that we like it better than Dallas? You want to do one more game? I got a stat on Bengals and Joe Burrow. Okay, great. Because the Bengals are actually a team. I'm waiting for that number to get from three and a half to three. So if it gets to three, I'm betting the Bengals.

Okay. So give it to me. And this stat better make me feel better. Yeah, that stupid stacks that I gave earlier about basically 59% if you don't remember. There's Green Bay. There's the Jaguars as the Cowboys. How about that stupid set about the zero sacks? Yeah, if you don't give up sacks in week one.

Yeah. That pretty much shows that you have a pretty good offensive line, especially in week two. Or you're playing a team with a terrible defensive line. It's fair. Look what we got here, though, the Bengals defense, which isn't as terrible as I said, but again, that might have been a Cleveland thing, where Cleveland's running backs are, you know, atrocious,

where we don't think that, we think the Jaguar's run blocking scheme will be better. This is really, though, a Joe Burrough step. Me and Chad talked about it, right? Joe Burrow, week one, we know the deal. You fade him there. The public overvalues him for some reason.

It doesn't matter even that we saw. It doesn't matter if he plays in preseason. That offense just isn't insane. I cannot believe he had seven yards in that second half. Brown's defense is good, and we know that they are not that good. Let's be honest here. Like that was a total anomaly. I get if you're like chatting,

and you're waiting for it to get the three because you expect the bounce back spot against an overvalue Jaguars team that, you know, this number was five and a half. Like Chad said, it's three and a half three now. Joe Burrow, week two, he's just a guy that struggles. And we've seen it early in the season. You know, his first three games, Bro and his career as a favorite, first three games of the year,

one seven and one against the spread in his career as a favorite. And again, that includes last week where he was a favorite didn't cover. When he's listed in a favorite within the first two games, Chad, the Bengals are 0 and 6 against the spread. This doesn't make me feel better. I mean, I haven't bet it yet. I'm just saying like, it's all there that for some reason these first two weeks, Joe doesn't do well. The Bengals doing well. He doesn't do well as a favor.

the rest of the season, Joe, after week three and later, he's 43, 22, and 1 against the spread, Chad. So that's what I mean. Like, you look for these trends because it's like, what am I not seeing with this game that, you know, to me, I'm with Chad, like, why is this game not a little higher? Like this, this Jags team, how do you not think they're a little overvalued? But now when I really dive into it, it's like, you know, three and a half,

that's the right number for this game. So I am on the Jaguar side. I want people were asking about this game. And I did just want to give respect. Since I's run defense isn't as terrible as they looked last year, but that we'll see how they do against his run blocking scheme of the zone blocks that, you know, that's where the Jowers are going to be running now. And that's, I love zone block because it leaves up to the running back.

When the running back cuts and chooses the hole, you saw that can be a really big deal for them. And, you know, they just got rid of think Biggsby. They're giving a two and more looks now. You know, that could be a really good backfield with him at ETN. So, yeah, I just wanted to bring that game up and just give out that Joe Burrow stat. People just said we're the biggest Bengals haters. We love betting the Bengals. I told you, I just gave you the set.

We're going to be betting the Bengals for the rest of the year. This first three weeks, it's just different. Like Taylor, the head coach, whatever it is, doesn't have the guys prepared. They struggle. Joe struggle against the spread. The public isn't weird to that. The guy is literally 0 and 6 in this exact spot as a favorite. So it's just, it's something to be wary of of Joe Burrow or early season as a favorite.

against the spread. All right. We're going to have a healthy debate on Sunday because I feel like there are some leaders in the clubhouse, but there are some teams sort of knocking on the clubhouse door trying to get in. Oh, yeah. And those are games where you got, you and I are much less aligned. So tune in Sunday morning, Sharper Square on YouTube, listen to it on your podcast feeds. Simon's biggest bet. What do we got? Yeah, I mean, it's, it's, It is tough because, like, obviously, last week, I mean, guys, we hear it. Like, I, it is tough in my spot where, yeah, I bet the Ravens for three months at plus one and a half.

And I know 90% of people listen to the show got Ravens at minus one. Brutal. Going forward, it shouldn't really be like that, right? If you catch this show, the show when we post it, hopefully you're getting the same number as me. And this week, honestly, the Colts, three plus two and a half, I did hit that pretty heavy. their first two days. Like early,

early on here, that's really where I put a lot of my money. Jets plus seven, me and Chad talked about it. I love Jets if you can get the seven. Get the seven. I feel so much more confident about it at the seven. And,

you know, I talked about this Eagles team. I can't stop betting it. I love it. I'm already dreading Sunday where if I'm wrong about this one, just because not only am I going to be eating this from a lot of professional bears

and maybe even Chad, but it's like, it's hard when I hit these, number so heavy and your vision of the game how it's going to play out goes totally sideways and it's like that's the same thing we're like only we've been against my homes here and i'm bending against josh allen it's not fun both are terrifying right that that that experience we had on sunday night that was horrible like having josh allen come back because we all knew what was happening right as soon as horrible punt them on that fourth and two fourth and three me and chat knew um that

was that was that was a losing bet so yeah like that that that ego is one to me that's really going to decide my weekend and um yeah that's again we're going to be talking more about on sunday we'll see where that line goes i'm excited to see does it flip he goes back to a dog or does this though does this get up to two chat it's going to be interesting watching this one by the time we get sunday money line underdog round robin parley i've got tennessee dead i told you it's dead well we still got to do it we got to give the people what they want i don't want to give it out though because i i rather do favorites let's win i i tell you i bet this stuff i'm losing money here chad like Legit money.

All right. Let's give a favorite and an and an underdog. All right. Tennessee, Jets, Pats, Falcons, Colts for the underdog. No, get out of here with the Falcons. No way I'm getting that in there. Who do you want to put in? That's, that's tough.

Let's go, uh, let's go Vegas. Okay. All right. Gino, don't know him, baby. Yeah. We didn't talk about that game much, but that's just because the line is Yeah, the line moved to three.

I'm not, I'm not as passionate about that one. do you want to do with favorites parlay at this point? Yeah, let's get super chalky with it. Start out with our guys Dallas, Cardinals. We like them. I think they're a team that could easily win against that Panthers team that looks like they have real problems. I already talked about Rams.

I just McVeigh wins those games. He might not cover, but he wins those games. A nice little hedge against our own bet, which I always love, taking those spots. It's, I know it's, I know it's, thankful, Chad, but don't we have to do the Lions? I was just going to say. Are they lions going to own two?

Lions, to me, are automatically in there. And the last one, again, I want to hear your view on it. I guess we have to go bills. Never mind. We'll go bills. I was going to get real weird with it and just throw in the 49ers,

but let's just avoid the 49ers game. I'd much rather go to the bills. Survivor. I'm a survivor. I put in Arizona, Ravens, and Lions as the three teams I would use for Survivor. Okay. And like the key is we do need to start looking ahead now.

So like week one, I just wanted to survive. I've been busted out of so many of these contests in week one because there's always that game and that did not happen. So it's not a guarantee it's going to happen. The NFL has change in that sense. but like that I can't help but look at all these teams I think which is the one who is the one

so I think we're on the same boat right the top three this week is Ravens it's Dallas that's Cardinals so quick look at the Cardinals right they get the Panthers here and I'm trying to find when's the next time we could even potentially play this team Chad

it's kind of tough like there isn't there isn't much other games like we get Tennessee at home in week five that could be our chance to take the Cardinals. So let's put them aside then, right? Because that's already, we already have a look ahead now.

Tennessee at home for the Cardinals, that's potentially the next time we could take them this exact spot. So let's move them out. Let's go to Dallas. Now, I don't know if you have the Dallas schedule up. They have the Giants who could be the worst team at football at home after starting 0-1-1.

I already told you, Dak Prescott has won 13 straight games against this Giants team. Now, Chad says, who cares? That's where business history. If I go fact, though, those Giants teams, to me, were better than this one currently formed. And especially, say what you wanted about Daniel Jones, you know, he dominated the commanders for all these years. Like, there's weird things with your divisional opponents.

Tom Brady, we've all seen the records against his divisional teams that, you know, Jared Golf, there's certain teams he owns in this division. Like, every team has certain teams. There's no one else I can find for the Dallas, Chad. Like, I'm looking at their schedule. They're at the Panthers. That's a spot I guess we could take them. but other than that,

I just could not find another easy game. I mean, they're at the Giants the last week of the season. There's just no other spots to me with Dallas. And like I told people, we've been burned by them. I know, but we either take Dallas here, we have to take them next week when they go to Chicago.

And Chicago, their own two, that's going to be a super desperate team potentially. So that's just why I jumped out to me about taking them. And the last ones, again, we need to run through it, Ravens. I think we're in the same page of why, we like the Ravens here. It's like them going to O and two.

We talked about the Raiders exact spot last year. They broke up tons of, they busted a bunch. I think we got busted out on it on the Ravens. Look in their schedule. I mean, I'm bringing it up right now. I can't find another easy spot really.

Like they're at Cleveland late. You know, they get the Bears at home after their by week. That could be a Ravens spot. So like we could save them for week eight this Ravens team. but that's the toughest part with trying to do these survival pools. It's like we just want to survive to the next week, but we also need to plan ahead a little bit.

So I get people, so many people reach out of the Cowboys, I get it. No one wants to see that line drop the 4-and-half. That is scary, but I just can't see Dak losing that game. And it's just, when am I going to play the Cowboys again? That's, they could be a bad team and Dak could get banged up. And then we're just, we wasted, not taking them in week two. So people can tell them fighting it, but I just, I think we got to go Cowboys shot.

I don't know where you're at with this one, but I think the Cowling Ravens. I don't think there's going to be another spot to play them as I was doing the research this morning. It felt like to me it came down to Ravens and Cardinals, to be honest. Wow. If you feel that strongly about Dallas, I just don't know where we're getting either of these teams. Dallas, I don't know that they would be a team that who do I want more at the end of the year, right? and I don't want anything to do with the Cardinals at any time, but this is sort of the best time to play them.

Yeah, we have to pick 18 teams. Right. So that's why we're thinking about game theory. We had to take some gross teams to save some good teams. I would do Cardinals or Ravens. Cardinals or Ravens? Okay, maybe I'll put a poll out. See what the fans want to do and try to fade down.

Yeah. Exactly. We can update on Sunday. Okay. Where we're going to land because we're divided on this. Listen, sharp versus square, you won last week, handily. So you get to go first this week. I'll just do it because I love this show.

I'll go Patriots. Wow. I know. I just, I want to go Eagles, but I just, I can't put all my chips on one side. So I'll go crazy here and take Brable and just, oh, my God, that Miami team. All right, I'm taking the Jets. Okay. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network.

We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning 11 a.m. or earlier, you're going to east drop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon in which we will panic, make human decisions, regret the rest of the day. You'll also get that on your podcast platforms. We will be back live Sunday night, 7.30 p.m. Eastern. to recap all that misery. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square, like the video, subscribe to the channel.

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Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guide. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This week on Crimless, Rory and I, Walt, Welcome a very special guest. When I did podcasts, I wear my sleep mask. I like where this is going. So if you guys will indulge me. That's right.

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