The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - Chad Millman & Simon Hunter's NFL Week 1 Reactions: Steelers-Jets, Lions-Packers, Giants-Commanders & more

Episode Date: September 8, 2025

NFL Week 1 is underway and expert bettor Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunger share their live reactions to the Week 1 slate. Which players stood out in Week 1? Which teams are true contenders this NFL season? They discuss all the big games: Aaron Rodgers leading the Pittsburgh Steelers over the New York Jets, the Green Bay Packers beating the Detroit Lions, and the New York Giants getting beat by the Washington Commanders, and much more. All lines provided by hardrock.betSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

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Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was crying.

You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis come into it. He's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball.

So listen to Point Game on the, IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Your husband is not who you think he is. Your body is not what you thought it was. Your identity is formed by a secret history. I'm Danny Shapiro. And these are just a few of the stunning stories I'll be exploring on the 14th season of Family Secrets.

He kind of shoved me out of the way and said, move. And he went out the front door and he jumped in a car and drove off. And that was the last time I saw him. Listen to Season 14 of Family Secrets on the IHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. All right. Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the volume podcast network.

This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper, especially today, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my confidre professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? You know what? This is the first Sunday in a couple of years where I actually feel pretty good about the Sunday panic.

The way this game for the Titans and the Broncos just ended should make us feel really good. We have almost made it through our first Sunday, four of five picks down. We are three and one to start the season with one more to go. Tonight, Sunday night football. We have the Ravens. We like them all week. The contest line that we got was one and a half, but we still both better. them as favorites. We bet them at minus one. We like him up to minus two. Still time to grab it.

We're going to get into it. Our last out were the Tennessee Titans plus seven and a half. Jets, Raiders, Seahawks are plus two and a half. Lions are plus one and a half. Listen, if we had just chosen the Jets of the Raiders, who we had been in on all week instead of the dolphins, We would be undefeated right now. We'd be four and no. But as you said, the panic is real on Sunday. We overthought a lot of games. But truly, a lot of our logic

that we discussed today on the show, which people could have heard, so they would have known exactly where we landed for the day, about line value that we discussed, as much as it kept us from putting the lions, putting the jets and the Raiders in, it also kept us from putting the lions in, it kept us from putting the Titans

in who were seven and a half in the contest, even kept us from putting the Seahawks in. So let's see how we did, buddy. You ready? I am. Okay. I'm going to keep going. I'm, yeah, it's, uh,

all you do is say yes. Sometimes I can't see you because I'm looking at the script, and so I can't see the screen. Well, you're on a roll like that. I like to just let you go. Thanks, buddy. I appreciate it. Listen, old habits die hard,

so we're going to get the ugly one out of the way. This bet completely makes me sick. What did I say all week? I said, I was not going to make impulsive decisions. I said, was not going to make bets on Sunday in the morning because I liked something all week and felt like the line moved a little bit in my direction. And I would have avoided the whole thing. I would have avoided the whole thing if you hadn't brought up the Miami Dolphins

this morning because I was out. I wasn't even thinking about it. I hadn't bet it. And yet it became a game that I bet and it became a game that we put into the contest. What happened to us? You said you loved it. I said I loved it all week. I'm counting on you to be the voice of better angels. I wasn't even going to bring it up on the show today this morning. I skipped it. And then you said to me, you said to me, what about Miami?

I was going to say, I just wanted out of your Detroit bet. So in my mind, I was like, okay, if I'm taking one super chalky bet, which we said Detroit was a public dog. Yep. The other game you said you loved with Miami, it was like, okay, I'll make the deal of the devil. you know, it was going to be a loss. Like even the seven and a half with Tennessee, I was confident in, but I knew, I knew for some reason one of these games

and ended up being two of them were really going to matter when it came to that number. And it was the Jets, the two and a half, and obviously Tennessee with the eight and a half. Could have played seven and a half in contest. Would have been a loser. And I know it gets annoying to people, but that's why we are such sticklers about it,

getting the best of the number, try to play as safe as possible in the contest. And, yeah, it was a bad look. Like, again, a lot of games we love this week. Obviously, I wish you'd love them too. We could have talked ourselves into it. But, you know, Washington, the Bucks. Yeah.

They were all sitting right there as well besides our Raiders and Jetslove. And that's what's so fun and hard about these contests. Like, you know, I told you for months that I hated Miami. I thought Miami was the worst team of football. You were disgusted. I mean, truly disgusted when I told you, I bet them pretty heavily to be the worst team in football 20 to 1. And I got where you're coming from, right? Everyone just hated them so much.

Sometimes it goes the other way. This time it did not. Like you said, they were a train wreck from the start. Everything was just going wrong. And if I'm going to lose, that's how I want to lose. Just quick death. It was over, took it out of my four bucks, never even put that game ever back on ever again. Dead bet.

Dead bet. Daniel Jones looked like Johnny Unitis playing for the Colts. Like, Tua was so bad. Throwing picks, fumbles. He looked horrible. Like, at one point, at one point, I made a note of this. In the third quarter, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Ty Warren, all had more total yards than the entire Dolphins team. The Dolphins team only had 62 yards midway through the second quarter.

They all had more yards on their own than the dolphins. It was actually a truly pathetic display of a team not being ready, of a team getting blown off the field from the second the game started. They were atrocious. Yeah, and I think you see what I was trying to warn you about. They don't have a secondary, they don't have an offensive line. And that's going to be an absolute problem for that. team and what they need to make it work.

So yeah, this shows card Sharper Square. Our square bet of the week goes to Chad Milman and his love for the Miami Dolphins. So we'll see what the sharp bet was. I got a good feeling. I know what it is, but that was definitely the squares bet we made this week. Miami was dead from the gym. Unfortunately, it was my square pick and our Sharper Square head-to-head in which you had Denver. So although, no, you had Tennessee.

Who did you end up having? Yeah, Tennessee at eight and a half. So yeah, man, great, great day for you. Great, you know what? You're crushing it. You are fantastic. Oh, brother. You spent three months gallivanting, traveling the world, writing a book.

I was in a hole watching film, crunching numbers, just to be told I'm a fraud on the internet. I can't, I can't wait to talk about how I've already bet Miami minus one and a half against the Patriots at home. I love it. What were your heads up? All right. One we nailed, Cleveland plus five and a half. We loved it from the beginning. This was your Simon says.

I wanted it to be Chad Love's Love. You know, the first drive of the game, I wasn't even worried. Like this defense was elite against the Bengals. Joe Flacco did. We predicted on Tuesday there was going to be a narrative for this game. The narrative was going to be Kevin Stefanski wants Joe Flacko to not screw up this game. he wants to be conservative. He wants his defense to dominate.

All of those things happened. If not for a rookie kicker missing an extra point and a chip shot field goal and drop passes that led to interceptions from the Browns. The Browns win this game pretty not handily, but it's not even, it's not a sweat. Like they were the much better team today. Yeah, and that to me, that was our sharp out of the week.

Like that was my flu game. I was sick as a dog this past week. Tried to make it work for the show. Tried to hide it the best I could. But just getting back in the book, being around all these people again, I have to wash my hands every 10 minutes. That's what I'm starting to realize once I'm getting back into these type of places. And yeah, this game all week, I just kept betting it.

Like, I would be sick landing Ben. I'm like, I got to get up. I got to go bet this Brown's number again. and you know jerry judy gave me a run for the money on that game he had a couple of huge drops bad pick off of his hands the kicker killing us i mean we we win that game outright on that brown's money line so many different ways oh my god it just that's what's so sicken about these dogs they just they're bad teams right they find ways to lose um you know we see the time and time again that's the difference between teams that when permanently and these teams

that just lose like Brown did today where it's like everything that can go wrong goes wrong in the worst times and yeah that's a game we talked right three and a half is what it probably should have been we got two free points got a little scary right at certain points but overall you never really worried about the five and a half or five so yeah that's those are the best type of dogs you bet where it's like you think you're going to win you still lose on the money line but overall that that number you bet was just a great number at the plus number yeah it's true there was no point in this game where I felt like the bet was really in jeopardy. Joe Flacco was exactly what you wanted him to be. There was a drive in the second quarter, took about nine minutes. He was nine of 11 on the drive,

right? They scored the touchdown. That's when they miss the extra point. To open the fourth quarter, they have back-to-back drops on third and fourth down from just inside midfield on fourth down. On fourth down, It was Judy who led the NFL in drops last year. But the defense is so freaking good. And this is going to be a tough one for us this year, Simon, because we like to bet good defenses. There was a series where the Bengals were sacked three straight times, two of them by Miles Garrett.

They ended up punting from the back line of their end zone. And that still could have made the game-winning play for the Browns if they had made that freaking. field goal. So I don't know what you think of the Browns. Like we loved it all week. I think they're already listed as 12 and a half point dogs to Baltimore next week. So when we get to our early liens, I have a feeling that game is going to come up. Yeah, I love the Browns. And there'll be a lot of opportunities this upcoming season to take them when like this week, people just didn't believe in them to the public. Love, love the Bengals. And they got very lucky.

on their teasers that that number came through and Survivor contest. Yep. Jags minus two and a half in the contest, it closed at four and a half, I think. It was a very physical game to start. But Trevor Lawrence, and Trevor Lawrence's first touchdown pass was a rollout to a wide open tight end from about the 10-yard line. The guy was open forever. I actually yelled, throw it to him.

And then, of course, like he doesn't even make the third. touch pass. It's a little bit too much of a laser. But it worked. And like before the weather delay, you sort of had the feeling. The Jaguars were what everyone said they were. They were better physically. They were more talented. I wasn't that impressive with Trevor Lawrence. Like he was okay. It'll be tricky to try to figure out this team and tricky to figure out the Panthers. I'm going to have to watch it. I didn't spend that much time on it because they were dominating so much. So I don't know if Bryce Harper was, or Bryce Young was just bad or if he just has no help

whatsoever. Yeah, I think he went exactly how we predicted of the talent level with the Jaguar seem compared to that Panthers team. And, um, your bet on the Jaguars and when their division, I can see it. Like, they're not that good, but I can see a nine and eight win in this division somehow. And, um, Trevor, so much potential, but like you said, he just does things that are so bad like he's so stupid and like his reading sometimes you're just like man i don't get it i just don't get why he's not taking that next step um maybe his time will go on he'll get more comfortable

this offense and he won't look his loss as he did at some points today but if they had any type of pass rush the panthers there's a couple of times he would have been in real trouble but he could just stand back there even when he was moving the pocket they had no one that could even run him down he just really had his way and it all started to me because of the run game and we talked about you know the big upgrade they had to the offense was you know, their head coach and the fact that the running game to me was the difference of this game. They just really, really brand the ball down the throat of this Panthers defense. And, you know, you said it, Bryce Young struggled mightily in this game.

And, you know, a little worrisome if you believe in the Panthers. He looked like the bad Bryce from last year of making bad reads, being laid on throws and staying in the pocket too long. But like you said, they're just, you question what's that town around them? So we'll see. Again, he's got that rookie receiver. True Barber is a good running back. We'll see as the offense goes along here at Panthers. If they actually get into a rhythm, they just look so lost today.

And yeah, that's the rare time. This one jumped out to us. It felt way too easy and we took it anyway. And it was never in doubt. Yeah. Here's the challenge. You know that we love to bet teams off a blowout the following week. because they're never as bad as they looked in the week they were blown out.

So how are we going to manage a conversation about the Panthers this week? How are we going to manage a conversation about the dolphins this week? We're going to get into all that with our early week two liens. And I want to talk a little bit about how we should be proud of ourselves and some of our regrets from our conversations. Because as you pointed out, it's not easy to settle on the five. and it's not easy when you could go six and three on the day, but two and three in a contest, because it's hard to figure out which games that you feel best about.

So let's take a quick moment before we get to the week two liens. Let's hear from our friends at Hard Rock Bet before we get into the next part of the conversation. We are crazy excited to announce our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. I don't know if you know this. I've got a very long history of staying at Hard Rock hotels and casinos, including one football season, practically living there, literally. They've always been to me the best combination of vibe and fun. Now you can use the top-rated hard rock bet sports book to place your bets all NFL season and beyond. Hard Rock bet is the only legal sports book in the state of Florida. And it's also available.

in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, and Colorado with more states launching all the time. You can also play on hard rock bats online casino if you were in New Jersey. Simon, I know you want to check that out. From here on out, you'll start to see us use hard rock bat lines when we're talking about the games. And everyone knows Simon and I, we have loved getting out and doing live shows. Now we can actually do them from hard rock properties. Simon, do we see a sharp or square live show from AC, just down the road from you in our future? As we gear up for NFL season, sign up for Hard Rock Bet. Make a $5 bet.

You'll get $150 in bonus bets if you win. Head over to Hard Rock Bet. Sign up and make your first deposit today. These are payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer. offered by the Seminole tribe of Florida in Florida, offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply, concerned about gambling in Florida.

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and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, new? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts.

We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down?

Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The story I've told myself about love or relationships can then shake my behavior, and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast. deeply well with Debbie Brown and explore the journey of healing, self-discovery, and returning to yourself. We explore higher consciousness, emotional well-being, and the practices that help you find

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or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than me. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself.

And on my new podcast, hope from a hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Oh, cream of chicken suit. Hey, cream.

Cream and chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrite as part of the Mike Coutura Podcast Network available on the I-Fart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. You know what? I kind of like the theme music for that ad. It's very tropical. If I were to review, I think I'm most proud that we never felt prey to the Panthers at plus three and a half that we actually. played the Jags, followed some line value, even if that was the last minute move.

I'm also really proud of our conversation this morning that we backed out of Tennessee because it was at seven and a half and that you listened to me about Seattle. I thought that was some just excellent communication. As someone who's been married for a long time, I feel like we exhibited really good open dialogue to come to consensus about how to avoid some really, really big pitfalls that have plagued us during our relationship. Yeah, it's a lot of landmines up there. And that's the hardest part is there.

I'm trying to find out which ones we should be taking, which ones should have been avoiding. And, you know, I know a lot of really, really smart guys who bet really heavy today on the Falcons, on the Giants. And I got their reasoning, but it felt lucky that we were on the other side of those. And, yeah, the games, like you said, the games will own and where are the games we miss? obviously Raiders, Jets,

hindsight, 2020, which we had those in, but I'll never complain about a three and one week one and possibility about four and one starts. So, yeah, it was, it was good, good discipline, especially avoiding the Tennessee, because I loved Tennessee.

But again, I told you, I was so invested at eight and a half, eight, you know, knew it was a risk that it could land at the seven and a half, and it's crazy. It really did land on the eight. And they should have covered that game, maybe even won it outright.

a hundred different ways but yeah the coaching in that game was just brutal again it's like we talk about it's these teams that are bad you know it's it's what happens right so that's why we focus so hard and getting the best of the number and yeah thank god we avoided that one that'd be tough to be sitting here two and two because we put tennessee back in yeah well also it kind of played out the way we thought it might on the field cam ward wasn't that good and uh he looked like a rookie quarterback playing against a fierce, fierce pass rush. There was one point where they were on the 25-yard line after a muffed fumble by the Broncos late in the game,

they ended up punting because he got sacked so many times. He was back on the other side of midfield. I mean, before half was the most egregious thing. They had the ball before half, we'll say 45 seconds left, and they could have just ran it out. And like Denver would use their two timeouts, that would have been the end of the half. They're up 6-3 at this point.

But for some reason, their mind they're dropping K.m Ward back to pass because they're going to steal three points before half and 40 seconds with a rookie quarterback. That, like you said, hasn't been doing much the whole day. That's what I'm talking about the coaching. It's like they punt there, two plays, Denver scores a touchdown. They get lucky on a kickoff and they get three there.

But, you know, you could have a half up six, three, you're going to half down, 10, 9. Changes the whole makeup of the game. So just little things like that. like Tennessee, I believe in them this year. When no one else did, I really planted my flag on this game because of all the day that backs up betting teams that, you know, struggled last year against the spread versus teams that overperformed against the spread

came to fruition this week one. But, yeah, landing right on eight. That's why I love what we do. It's like, that's crazy that line landed right on eight and that the books were just so sharp with it. And, you know, it was eight and a half, nine for about, what, 48 hours, maybe in 72 hours. So, yeah, that was a number that sat there.

The public kept taking it. And yeah, we got it away with one, too, like Survivor Contest. I'm glad, we're done with the Bowdo Nix experience with our Survivor contest. Well, look, that's the other thing is that he was not very good. Oh, it's terrible. And the Titans defense was much, much better, I think, than we expected them to be. Defense of special teams, I told you both things would be better. Yeah, Jeffrey Simmons was dominant today.

He didn't lose the game, right, Chad? Yeah. He was bad, Cam Moore, but he didn't lose the game. No, no. If that was Will Levis, they would have lost by two touchdowns. Right. What lost the game, honestly, was just how dominant the Broncos defense was. Because O'Nicks didn't win them the game in any way.

He made sort of the right plays at the end, but he's the whole reason the Titans were in it to begin with. I want to do a quick recap on the Jets because they were fun and chippy and aggressive. They played with the attitude that we thought, Aaron Glenn would bring. And Justin Fields was kind of awesome. Nine of 11 in the first

half, 16 to 22 in the game. Breece Hall had more than 100 yards rushing. Super physical. Like, they were making a point. There was a second half drive where Justin Field scramble, looked downfield on multiple plays. He was accurate. Then, to finish the drive, bullied his way

into the end zone to give the Jets a two score lead. After the Jets gave up the Lepin'clock lead, after the Jets gave up the lead. They went right back down the field. Justin Fields, a fourth down run to score a touchdown to give him the lead back. Like, very interesting team. Kudos to you because you were on this game with the Jets Plus 3 all week. Like, outstanding.

Loved it. Loved watching that game. Had so much fun betting that game. Yeah, I love Justin Field. Justin Fields' upside for that team coming the season, but that was not at all. how I truly envisioned that game going. I thought it would be much more run-heavy from both teams and immediately turned to a shootout, like bizarre.

Aaron Rogers, they didn't bring Aaron Rogers in to win, get 32 points, right? They brought him in to hopefully manage the game and then get them in a position and went to the end. He threw for four touchdowns. That was an incredible game by Rogers, because there was points in the game where he does look like an old man. He just makes these like old man mistakes and takes these bad sacks.

But then he'll make throws where it's like that's vintage Rogers. And there's only a handful of quarterbacks in the history of the league that could ever make those type of throws. And, you know, Justin Fields, brutal. Like every chance to win that game played so well. Once again, the Jets are a bad team. They made little mistakes, got them in the end. That's why they lost that game.

And, you know, Tomlin coach, Pittsburgh team steals that game on the road. And another time where we, talk about how important the number two is right landed right on two talk all the time in nausea and the NFL has changed it happens every week it feels like a number lands on two another spread really sharp by the bookmakers the the public hammered absolutely hammered pittsburgh minus two and a half so yeah the books cleaned up today and well usually that's when we clean up as well so that was a really nice spot for them and a really nice number and um i again i'm still shocked pittsburgh won that game i just I thought the judge played so much better.

I can't believe they didn't close it out at the end. Yeah, I think if we looked back at that game, looked back at the Browns game, you'll be shocked that those two teams weren't the winners because they really kind of dominated the games. To review from the week, Simon says was the Browns, they covered. Chad Love's Love was Detroit.

They did not. the first half, they were much better than the score indicated, but the Packers were just dominant. Like defensively, they were pretty amazing, and there were enough times where Jordan Love was able to find holes in the Lions defense. Lions dropped an interception. Alex Anzolone dropped interception that could have been critical. They had a penalty on interception from Brian Branch that he ran back for a touchdown.

So tough spots for them. That's going to be a game we've got to look at a little more deeply to figure out. what we think of Detroit. Brass balls, Tennessee. We had them basically eight and a half, so good for them. Good for us. Rocking a hard place bet. Baltimore. We're on them as a very short favorite tonight. So that'll be the key to getting us to 500 on those four critical, titled bets. Let's talk about some early lean, Simon, quickly. Bad news, because New England at Miami, I checked this line at about 545 and it was 1.5 Miami.

First bet I made. Don't tell me it's square. I get it. It's up to 2.5. Pretty much across the board. Hard Rock bet 2 and a half. I bet this game up to 3. Like, you're going to have to lean Miami

after such a bad showing in week one. I will, but I'm not forcing them. There's zero chance. something you put in the contest. So, like, again, I, I've given out my opinion. I've made my stand on Miami. Chad has gone right back to the stove to touch the stove one more time on this Miami Dolphins team, even though I explained to him exactly why.

But you're not, you're going to be a terrible team this season. You're telling me that at one and a half, you wouldn't play the dolphins? I'm not, I don't care if the dolphins are a three point dog, but this line moves five points. I wouldn't let you put this into the contest. I try to teach you a lesson today, and I clearly. did not work. Didn't work. It didn't work.

So no, I mean, I get where you're coming from. They're up to minus two at Hard Rock. Yeah, Miami, it's going to be the professional side. I just, I got no interest in this team. And yeah, even if they come through, I won't let us get sucked into this trend of like them always being undervalue this year because, you know, the public is going to be like me. They're totally out on this team.

They just looked, to a look totally lost. But just overall, they look like they have no will or desire to be out there. They got big boy today. It was bad. It was pretty bad. They really did look like they hadn't spent any time preparing the past month. It was astonishingly bad, which is when you bet that team the following week. Philadelphia at Kansas City, these were just a couple games that, like, I noticed.

I'm going to want you to give me some of yours too. Kansas City is only a one and a half point favorite at home. They look terrible on Friday night. I do wonder how much of that had to do with Xavier Worthy, who's going to be such a critical part of their game plan, being knocked out immediately. Though we have a history of wanting to bet the Chiefs at certain numbers when they are less than a three-point favorite or a dog. It did not work out for us in the Super Bowl. We had the charters in the contest at three and a half. That worked out for us this past week.

I'd rather be a little bit late on fading the Chiefs. And one and a half feels a little too light for me. I agree. I think this number is what you just talked about. It's respect for past years. And this is a team that is down there number one and number two, Y receiver, when they were already struggling offensively. And Pacheco just, Pacheco is not what used to be.

He is talented, but he just looks a little slower. And that offensive line doesn't look like they're that great at blocking. And the Eagles are coming off an extended. rest from home. Like they were at home after their game on Thursday. This, this chief team was flying back from Brazil. And, you know, that's a big deal for week one, right? You lose that type of game. Now you're on a long flight home, not getting back until Saturday. You know, yes, that's not a short week, but it's not extended rest. Like, the Eagles are coming off. And I think the Eagles last week, they might have won that game. I don't think they're going to treat it as such this upcoming

week in practice, right? I think they know they got away with one. And they played really sloppy. the second half. So this number at Hard Rock is already up to plus one chiefs. So I'm going to grab the Eagles now and I'll maybe take a big position and buy back later on on the Chiefs. If that becomes, you know, if this gets up to plus three, I don't have a choice. At that point, this is going to move too much. And I'll take that value on this Chief's team.

But it's scary. Like, someone that likes this Chief's team wants to back them, you know, like that worthy thing. that's there could have been a more important player to that offense. You don't want Hollywood Brown and Juju Smith-Schutcher to be your number one and two receivers. That's a scary spot to be in right now for that offense. So yeah, Mahomes in that game was incredible, honestly, against the Chargers. Like the stuff he does, it's just to cause a reminder why he is the best quarterback in football.

And he has nothing around him right now. And it's a team that we're going to have a ton of value on later in the season, especially where if they are, you know, three and six or four and six at some point. when's counting them out, I love them once they get everyone back and they're healthy. But as they stand right now, Chad, this is the team I'm looking to take a position on against with this early number. And, you know, if you can get ego's that plus number, I take it. We're just giving out hard rock right now and that's minus one.

Las Vegas is a three and a half point home underdog against the Chargers. I feel like the Chargers are overvalued right now because of beating the Chiefs, who we just discussed, I think are a little. little bit diminished in terms of quality and health. The Raiders are now getting to go home and they're playing inside where Gino can be elite. The only reason I would hesitate right now is Brock Bowers. He left the game with a knee injury. He tried to go back in. They wouldn't let him. Generally, I think there is optimism he will play. What do you think you get in the hook? I hate it. Yeah, you can grab it now if you want to. I mean, that's obviously a really nice spot.

And, you know, it's a standalone game. So I'm with you. I feel like the public will keep coming on the Chargers. So we can grab the three and a half now, but that's also a line that could keep going. Like Chad just said, if Bowers is out, you know, the public, they're going to be taking a heavy position. I mean, I can already see them parlaying them with the books that back-to-back game on Monday night. So yeah, I'd like your early read here plus three and a half. That's good value. All right, what am I missing? I got Sinci minus 5.5. Against the Jags. I like Sinci as an early lean. Cleveland plus 12 and a half against Baltimore. In Baltimore, that feels egregious.

Jets plus eight and a half at home versus Buffalo. Both of those feel way too big. And I'm trying not to be sort of overly biased based on what we saw. today. Yeah, I'll just talk again, because we have two, literally two shows come this week. I'll just talk about the lines that jumped out right away to me from, you know, what Hard Rock put up. And when I first went to their page, I was going to think to myself, what will they make the lines before the Bears play?

And I was shocked. They hung a minus four and a half. And, you know, lines at home minus four and a half against a Bears team that could. What me and Chad think should be happening is them having a very, emotional win on Monday night. Maybe you get better value, but if they get rolled here, this number could easily get up to six and a half. Like this lion's number could shoot up if this Barrett's team does not look right and doesn't

look prepared. So that's a number that jumped out. I grabbed that just thinking the public most likely wouldn't be on the lines. We'll see. Another line that jumped out that, you know, I grabbed it just because we talked about the key number of two and a half. Seahawks, I'm going back to the well. they're playing Pittsburgh

and crazy ending to their game. Like just an insane, flukeish end. And I think the Seahawks in this game would have been at a pick, honestly. If they would have won that game at home, I think they would have got more respect

from the general public. It feels that we're getting a free point and a half, two points here. And I'll say this about Pittsburgh. They have a bunch of stuff you can really attack on their defense. Like, their secondary is banged up. They have major issues

if they have a really banged up secondary because Justin Fields looked like an all-pro passer. That's a problem. So just looking at this matchup, but really favors the Seahawks team, the fact that they're coming off this type of brutal loss, you know, I'm not going to make you a rush to take this one.

Just know, this is a position I'm already taking that. You know, just like the Jets, I can see the public liking Pittsburgh in this spot. I could see this growing up to three, three and a half. And Chad knows the deal. Tomlin at home is a favorite. Once he crosses three, that is not a position you want to be.

and usually he loses those type of game. The one thing I would say about Seattle, we worried about their offensive line. Their offensive line was not very good today. And the Steelers still have a good pass rush that got in Justin Fields Grill a lot today. Like the whole reason the Seahawks lost that game is because the Niners were able to rush.

They got into Sam Darnold's grill and forced to fumble when they were at the 10-yard line. It's fair. I mean, I thought their offense was pretty good, but yeah, it was a tough matchup. I mean, they had a dumb fumble by their Y receiver. Like a lot of things just didn't work their way. And, yeah, I thought they played well, run blocking. I thought they did better.

But we'll see. We'll see what the slime moves to. So, yeah, if you don't want it, that's going to honestly make me like it even more. I'll be honest with you, Jeff. You're ice school right now. That feels dismissive. I'm just going to save it for the show. I just good.

I'm happy you like. Pittsburgh and you have doubts about this. I don't have I'm not saying I like Pittsburgh. I'm just saying I'm not sold on Seattle. You're going to pass on it for the contest. You're going to pass on it for better. You are just feeling yourself right now. I want a lot of,

man. What else? What else is on your little list? These are just again, games that jump out to me where it's like I'm shocked about the public early line value and the sides they love. And it's going to be. this Colts side against this Broncos team.

Colts are plus three. I'm shocked. They are plus three at books right now. Like I couldn't believe Hard Rock put up Colts plus three. So they're giving me the Saints from last year, deja vu. I don't know if we're going to keep riding this Colts team. But as they stand,

I don't know. I feel like that's a good spot to back them against the Denver team that the public, they're going to come back and bet them next week. Like they don't, I don't think they're going to be worried about them. And to me, these two teams, as I say right now, they're not that different stylistically. But yeah, I just, I don't know if I'm going to force us into it.

There's another line that's gross. I'm not going to make us take a chat, but I think you're going to be the same page with me. The Panthers, they're up to six and a half against that Cardinals team. That could have lost a million different ways to the Saints today. So I know people, I was hoping we'd maybe wait a week or two for our Cardinals, I mean, our Panthers love, but that's egregious. Six and a half against that Cardinals team is egregious.

they just got blown out. Like I know we're going to find some crazy stats about these teams that got rolled. Panthers are going to fit into that. So just early bet I've already bet at a hard rock year plus six and a half. Give me the Panthers. I honestly had the Panthers in the script. I don't know if you saw it. And I skipped it just because I was so embarrassed to say it.

I thought you were going to treat me the way you just did about Seattle. And so I just didn't want to bring it up. So I'm glad. I'm glad you said it. Yeah, we got it. It's just a game I know come Thursday. I'm probably really going to get warm to. I just,

everything for that Cardinals game is exactly why I have my doubts about them. It's just Kyler just looks so. Yeah, no, totally. Yeah. So, yeah, that's crazy. It's gone up to six and a half. And again, I'm just going to throw a little on because I'll be patient. Like if the public really loves this Cardinals team and we can get a seven here,

seven and a half in our contest, it might be unavoidable putting this one in the next. week. Yeah. All right. So that's the lineup that we're thinking about. Those are our early liens. A reminder, we got the Ravens tonight. That will be the close out for our contest. We are three and one. We won with the chargers. We won with the Browns. We won with the Jags. We lost on the dolphins. We'd like the Ravens to finish four and one for our five best today. This has been Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We're part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back with our next Sharper Square on Tuesday to go over the entire NFL slate. Watch or listen on YouTube

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