The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - EARLY 2026 NFL SEASON WIN TOTALS - Part 1

Episode Date: March 4, 2026

NFL free agency officially begins next week, so betting expert Chad Millman and professional gambler Simon Hunter look ahead to next season! Today we kick off our two-part episode on early 2026 NFL se...ason win totals. In this episode, our hosting duo discusses the highest win totals on the board, as ten familiar NFL franchises are currently installed with win totals of 10.5 at Hard Rock Bet. Can the Buffalo Bills stay afloat in the AFC East? Are the Kansas City Chiefs poised to rebound when Patrick Mahomes returns? Will a new coach take the Baltimore Ravens back to glory? And are the Seattle Seahawks capable of repeating as Super Bowl champions? All of these questions answered and more in today's episode, with Part 2 coming next week. #Volume -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.
Starting point is 00:00:12 We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.
Starting point is 00:00:26 Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm CJ Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was hiring. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Mark keep coming to him. He's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the I-Heart
Starting point is 00:01:00 Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Therapy is fantastic, but once again, it does not have a monopoly on healing. That's why I create the resources and that's why I create the community because I really just want you to have more access. On the podcast, Cultivating HerSpace, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women can show up fully and be heard. It's tough because we're suppressing our emotions and so many of us are like high-achieving individuals.
Starting point is 00:01:25 Listen to Cultivating Her Space on the IHeart Radio app. Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast. When you feel uncomfortable, what do you put on? Biggie. You put on Biggie when you feel uncomfortable? Because I want to get confident. This is DJ Hesterprin's Music is Therapy, a weekly podcast from me, a DJ and licensed therapist.
Starting point is 00:01:45 It's Mental Health Month. Let's figure out what actually works. I didn't care about my life circumstance when I listened to that stuff. It didn't matter to me. This isn't just a podcast. It's unconventional therapy for you every day. Open your free IHeart Radio app. DJ Hester Prynne's music is therapy and start listening now.
Starting point is 00:02:03 Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Back. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, my confadre, my co-host, professional better, Simon, Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing, brother?
Starting point is 00:02:30 Hey, you know what's funny? The other day, I was watching something on TikTok, and it was a old video of Goldie Hawn and Kurt Russell presenting at the Academy Awards. And she said to Kurt Russell, Kurt, you are my best friend, you are my companion, you are my compadre. I'm like, oh my God, did we steal? that from them, but I always thought we stole it from eastbound and down. So maybe eastbound and down stole it from Kurt Russell and Goldie Hawn. But we're like the Kurt Russell and Goldie Hawn
Starting point is 00:03:10 of sports betting podcasting, Simon. I like that shot. Yeah, I agree. Honey, I was just thinking back there that we fit in completely to the theme of the show because we're co-stars, we're compadres, we're companions, and we're a couple. There's only one thing we're not. What? Married. People should know if they're watching on YouTube. It is the offseason.
Starting point is 00:03:34 You are in the middle of moving. So if you look funny or you are in more repose than usual, it's because you are displaced from your house that you have sold and figuring out where you're going to go next. And so you're in transition right now. Yeah, off-season mode, truly on the move. This is the best. I love the offseason. And yeah, honestly, doesn't feel like an off season just because football is never ending.
Starting point is 00:04:01 But, yeah, definitely on the move right now. So, yeah, sorry if the video quality is not the best. Hopefully audio is still good. I will listen. We do have some offseason NFL stuff to talk about. Next week we got our good friend Bill Barnwell coming on. He's been doing some great columns about where he thinks players will land, how he's ranking offensive players and who's potentially going to be moving in defensive players.
Starting point is 00:04:25 But Simon, today I do want to talk about season win totals because those did come out in advance of all the free agency in advance of all the draft moves. And, you know, we've talked a little bit about it. Before we even kick off, we did have an emailer question, the Cleveland Browns. And I'm glad they did because apparently we talked about the Cleveland Browns as like Longshot Super Browns. Bowl. And as I was going through this, the Cleveland Browns were standing out to me as like a definite under six and a half. So I need to reconcile right now what we're talking about. Where do we stand for this emailer to answer the question about the Cleveland Browns overall? Yeah, you probably don't remember because we were just giving out what we liked better than
Starting point is 00:05:16 100 to 1 odds to win the Super Bowl. So you had 130 to 1 is what I gave out the Browns. And then it got worse afterwards. That's why we joked. about like they think Jim Schwartz left the team after that show and tons of my whole view of it is just if he comes back the Sean Watson and he still has any type of talent that's a good number for a guy with some playoff experience but I think the market is telling you that they think it's going to be another terrible year and last year I believe they opened a five and a half and then they dropped the four and it was I mean I was being serious I liked the bet I gave it out at our live show we
Starting point is 00:05:55 did last year in the spring. So I've always kind of been on the brown simply because of their defense this year I get why you're a little hesitant on them, Chad. The six and a half feels pretty high and we don't know how that defense is going to be with the new DC in there. And we have so many questions about Watson right now. So that's one I've not placed a single bet on. But yeah, if someone's like, hey, would you take the over right now? I don't think you need to rush to take that over. I think you can be patient on that over, in my opinion. All right. So today's show is going to be all about season win totals. Hard Rock bet, put a bunch out. The highest number is at 10 and a half. There's Baltimore, Buffalo, Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, Chargers, Rams, Philly, Niners, Seahawks. So there's a decent number. All of the teams at that 10 and a half, let's do a quick. run down, good value, bad value, over or under, where you would lean on each one of these teams.
Starting point is 00:07:00 Are you ready? Let's do it. All right. First one, Baltimore, 10 and a half, let's immediately on the count of three, say, if you think over or under, okay? So I don't know where you're going to go. You don't know where I'm going to go. Ready? Baltimore, minus 10 and a half.
Starting point is 00:07:16 One, two, three, under. Under. Wow. what's your logic i'll tell you might uh just because how early we are i have a lot of questions about what they've done at hiring the head coach position i have still questions about lamar what's his deal with the team and um there's a couple of teams you mentioned we're to run through here that like i instantly bet their unders when these came out and um this is not one of them but immediately they call my of okay in a tough division with unknown at the quarterback position unknown at the head
Starting point is 00:07:44 coach in position the safe play is the under but easily we both would agree if lamar is good to go fully healthy and plays the full season, they'll hit the over, but that has not happened in quite some time. Like I said, he's now missed, he's not played in the playoffs three of the last five years, Lamar. So that's the big question mark with this Ravens team. You're supposed to say it at the same time I say it. We can't be doing this the whole time. There's too much of a delay. One, two, three. I'm with you, though. We don't know what that defense is going to be, right? That's really the big question. They had been inconsistent and not playing well at the end of the year. Was that just Zach Orr's scheme? Is it how Harbaugh was dictating Zachor play the game?
Starting point is 00:08:33 We don't know. Jesse Minter, the new coach, could make them brilliant the way Mike McDonnell did with Seattle. We don't know that yet. A lot of question marks. Value under plus 1.15. Matt Mitchell, here we'll go. Buffalo Bills. minus 10 and a half. One, two, three, under. This feels like an easy over for me. Josh Allen, I don't care of who the head new head coach is. I like Joe Brady.
Starting point is 00:09:03 I think he'll be able to make that offensive work, what he's done these last couple of years, leaning more into the run, protecting the ball more with Josh. I love it all. To me, the question is always beyond the defense, and I don't see as a negative getting rid of, you know, what I view it as a mid-level coach in the way, especially coached the defense now.
Starting point is 00:09:22 And, you know, Sean McDermott had his time. And I do think here this is a low total where if they still had him, this is probably 11.5. Maybe the public feels more confident about it. I'm the other way. It feels like last year was a down year for that Bills team. I think this is way, way over. So I've hit this quite a little bit, Chad. You can probably tell us.
Starting point is 00:09:41 You have. Yeah, I got this graded over 11.5. So a full, full win under where I have this graded up, which is good value for me for early play. All right. Maybe I'll change my mind. I was sitting down on the bills. You get the jets in Miami in this division chat. So that's four wins.
Starting point is 00:09:59 Yeah, that's true. You don't think you get you six and a half more? So it's really one of those where it's such a bad division. You have the MVP. It's, you got it. I know where you're coming from the Katrina and you, right, where you're coming from. But, yeah, I think as a season gets a little closer, you'd be like, okay. I should invest heavily into this over.
Starting point is 00:10:16 This is way too low for Josh Allen. Detroit 10.5. Minus 135 to the over plus 110 to the under. This is a tricky one. Detroit, 10 and a half. Let me think about it. One, two, three. Under.
Starting point is 00:10:35 Yeah, this is, again, just like the bill is. This is my second biggest bet I've made in this offseason. Wow. And in the under. Yeah, I can't believe it. This feels like a line from the past. We talk all the time. Football, your window closes pretty quick.
Starting point is 00:10:52 And you can allow yourself to say, well, they've had bad injury luck. That O-line is done. There is no saving that O-line. They've had guys retiring. They've had guys with a ton of injuries. They've not drafted right for the O-line. And we've seen if golf doesn't have an O-line, I mean, that's going to be a big problem. So to me, maybe your defense gets a little healthy.
Starting point is 00:11:13 but in that division, I just think Green Bay is going to be better. I think the Bears, even though you can say, well, they went way better than they should have been last year. They're going to build off that. This is going to be a year or two of Ben Johnson. So even with the questions you might have with the Vikings in the clear-or-rec position, I think 10.5 is a pass line. So I know some pros who have actually liked this over and they've been betting it. You can get this now to plus number for the under.
Starting point is 00:11:38 So a couple different blocks plus 120 plus 115. I really like this under on the Stichoy team. Green Bay, 10 and a half. One, two, three, over. Over. Love it. Yeah, I didn't really bet it. I didn't bet it, but yeah, I just, I think we're on the same page where I had coach, quarterback.
Starting point is 00:11:57 If they stay healthy, they just had so much bad injury luck last year. If they are healthy, great offensive line, you know, Parsons on that defense should be improved. And, you know, I think we're on the same page. And that division of all the teams are probably the best value right now. to win that division. So couldn't agree more. I feel like they got annihilated by injuries at the end of the year. Could have been a much better team.
Starting point is 00:12:22 I'm glad they're bringing LaFleur back. And I think in that division with the Lions, who we both think are going to be under, with the Vikings who have quarterback issues, the bears to me are going to be the biggest challenge for them. But even if they split with the bears, this is a very, very tight. talented team. LA Chargers, I'm sorry, Kansas City Chiefs, 10 and a half, minus 115, minus 105, one, two, three, over.
Starting point is 00:12:53 So mine is with a caveat. Yeah. Obviously, when is Patrick Mahomes back? Exactly. So that's what I'm leaning under. Your logic here is maybe you play the under and when you start to get more of an idea, you might get better value on the over. Yeah, I just don't, I wouldn't put money in over this, this early on this type of team where it's like, that's, if it comes out that he's still not right in September and he's not going to play until October November, I mean, you're already taking five games with No Mo Holmes on a team that he's always making them overachieve.
Starting point is 00:13:31 So just like Detroit, I think we romance the past and, you know, that's a past number. Like you're telling me they're the 10 and a half in their division is the same as Josh Allen's 10. is ludicrous. That's why I'm saying people, if you're going to bet heavy into something, that bills ones to treat this game, this number. Yeah, like we're leaning right now, stay away. Stay away. There's too much unknown with this side. And what's interesting is they have another team in the division that is also 10 and a half in the LA Chargers. Interesting that the Broncos aren't a 10 and a half, but the Chargers are, that has to be completely because they expect the offensive line.
Starting point is 00:14:11 to be improved. And to me, I'm kind of passing on this team until they've proven to me that they can combat injury luck, that they can run an effective offense, that Justin Herbert can be good over the length of a season and be consistent over the length of a season, not just against bad teams.
Starting point is 00:14:34 And so I'm kind of a pass on this right now. Yeah, I would lean the overrun. I'm just like you. It's if they're healthy, Yeah, we think they're going to be obviously much better offensively. The question is how they're going to be defensive without Minter. That's going to be a big difference. That man was a really good coach.
Starting point is 00:14:49 That's why, you know, if you like the Ravens and that move, it could be a huge upgrade. But, yeah, that's the question here for me is just how is it defensive to be. But, yeah, I think you nailed a little bit. There's another team this division way better value on taking their over. So this one I lean to the over. I'm not going to force bet here on the Chargers, though. Who's the team in the division that has way better value? Denver.
Starting point is 00:15:10 Yeah, Denver 9. I couldn't believe that when I first saw it. Like that, to me, one of the worst lines of the books, the books hand. Like, that end the bills. They're just, to me, two really bad lines by the books. They're just, they hang these lines really to see what the professionals do, and that's going to be one to me. They're just going to absolutely hammer.
Starting point is 00:15:27 This will be easily 10.5 come September. There's no way. If my homes is going to miss time as well, this will be 10.5 minus 120 to the over. Like, that, to me, is the type of movement you can get on this 9.5. So, yeah, that's what I was talking about, you're looking for great offensive lines. They have that. You're looking for a quarterback that keeps improving year to year. Bow's done that.
Starting point is 00:15:51 And, you know, when you look at the coaching, you know, Sean Payne, you might look at as a negative. They take a step back, not calling plays. I think when he needs to, he will be calling the plays. When he needs to intervene, he will be making those plays. And I still think the first 40 plays of the game, he'll be scripted regardless. So I really love that opening number. Anytime you can get a team that made it to an AFC championship game that their quarterback got banged up. And that's why they didn't win it.
Starting point is 00:16:17 They hold that going to the whole offseason. That's a highly, highly motivated team in Denver. So to me, that is a bad, bad number by the sports books. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet, Florida's Sportsbook. March is here, and that means college basketball takes center stage. The stakes are rising. The shots are falling. And now's the time to hit the hardwood with hard rock bet.
Starting point is 00:16:42 And if you ever miss tip-off of a big game, don't worry. Hard Rock bet lets you live bet all game long from the first bucket to the final buzzer. So you're never too late to find a winner or grab that player prop that you had circled. And if America's recent hockey glory has you feeling extra patriotic, you can bet the stars or stripes on the world baseball stage. Two, hard rock bet lets you double your winnings on your first 10 bets, max 50 bucks. So if you would have won 100 bucks on your same game Harley, make that 200 bucks. Plus, Hard Rock Bet offers new promos daily. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got any day of the week.
Starting point is 00:17:23 Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida, offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-833 playwise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem that wants help, call 1-8009 with it. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news.
Starting point is 00:17:54 What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there.
Starting point is 00:18:07 But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.
Starting point is 00:18:28 I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Starting point is 00:18:48 Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defining the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. and finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves,
Starting point is 00:19:10 I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense.
Starting point is 00:19:28 And when IT's friends stopped by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He run up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball.
Starting point is 00:19:49 So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHeart Podcast presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne. Yeah. This is my best friend, Janet. Hey. And we have been joined at the hips since high school.
Starting point is 00:20:03 Absolutely. Now a redacted amount of years later. We're still joined at the hip. Just a little bit bigger hips, wider. This is a podcast. We're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey. With all the snacks and drink. Sidebar.
Starting point is 00:20:18 Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? Oh, they had a bogo. Well, then you got it. Do you want a white collar or something here? Just take it. What are y'all doing? Microphones? Are you making a rap album?
Starting point is 00:20:28 I would buy it. Cut through the defense like a hot knife through sponge cake. That sounds delicious. Oh, you're lucky I'm not a drug addict. You're lucky I'm not an alcoholic. You're lucky I'm not a killer. I love this team and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on. Oh.
Starting point is 00:20:50 Oh. Listen to soccer moms on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. There are times when the mind becomes a difficult place to live. This is David Eagleman with the Inner Cosmos podcast, and for Mental Health Awareness Month, we're dedicating a series to understanding the mind when it struggles. I'm joined by doctors, researchers, and those with lived experience. We'll talk with singer-songwriter Jewel about anxiety. I started living in my car, and then my car got stolen.
Starting point is 00:21:23 I was shoplifting. I was having panic attacks. I was agoraphobic. And making it through hardship. To be present is a learned skill, and it's hard to be present. We'll talk with John Nelson about clinical depression and the brain implant that saved his life. What I learned is that procedure made me happy because I'm disease-free. And we'll talk with leading experts like Judd Brewer about anxiety, and John Hirschfield about obsessive-compulsive disorder, and the science of how the brain can change.
Starting point is 00:21:55 This is a month of deeply personal and honest conversations about what happens when the brain goes off course and what we can do about it. Listen to Inner Cosmos on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. In Ohio, call 1-800 My Reset Gambling Problem. Call 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia. Rams, the team we loved all of last year, one of the three remaining team, four remaining teams at 10 and a half at Hard Rockbet. The over is minus 40, the under, plus 1.15. Let me think about this for a second.
Starting point is 00:22:45 Okay, ready? One, two, three. Under. Yeah. Yeah. You got to. I mean, this Stafford coming off the MVP year, I felt like everything broke. their way. The only thing I didn't break their way was the reps blew dead at two-point conversion
Starting point is 00:23:02 that they ruled not a back-word-pass and that's why Seattle had home field advantage. And that literally, you look back, that literally dictated honestly so much into the playoffs. So it felt like last year was the Rams year and they kind of missed it. So pains for me to say because I love this Rams team. I have to stay the coach, the quarterback, but you're banking a lot on Stafford to have a back-to-back career years and stay healthy another full season. All right, your favorite team with a brand new offensive coordinator, the Philadelphia Eagles 10 and a half plus money at the 10 and a half, minus at the under. One, two, three, over.
Starting point is 00:23:46 Dude, we are, we haven't spoken in like a week and we are a mind melt today. Yeah, I don't know about you, but I just think it's because of the division. Yeah. I do think the Eagles could take a step back, but Howie's just drafted so well, they have just so much talent. That step back still feels like 11 to 10 wins. So, you know, if it all clicks this year, the offensive line's right, the defense is better, this is easily a 13-win team. But if they have another down here like they did last year, you know, in-house drama and all that, sure, 10-11 wins, sounds about right. So I think this is priced right by the book at 10.5.
Starting point is 00:24:24 I have it right there as well. And I like they were both leaning to the over for them. You know what's funny? This past weekend, you know, I do this trip every year with all my high school buddies and all of the wives. So it ends up being like 20, 25 people. Andy and Matt frequent guests in name of the show. They were there with their wives.
Starting point is 00:24:50 Andy's wife organizes the whole trip for like 30 people. She's, you know, amazing, right? Figures the whole thing out. Orders the food, does the activities, gets the houses, everything. She's unbelievable. I can't tell you it's end of February, beginning of March, how much of the conversation that we all had was about football. We talked about football, sitting by the pool,
Starting point is 00:25:21 we talked about football, eating dinner. We talked about the Bears. We talked about, can the Bears go to the Super Bowl? We talked about the Vikings firing their GM as soon as the Seattle Seahawks made the playoffs. The Cubs are in spring training. We didn't talk about the Cubs that much. We talked about football so freaking much. And this conversation reminds me how much it dictates our fandom and how much people love
Starting point is 00:25:52 thinking of you, talking about the Eagles, expressing your hopes and expectations, and understanding them so intimately, I love football. Yeah, I always say to people, when the rest of the world's falling apart, I really lean into football. So definitely right now, it's my,
Starting point is 00:26:13 just if I need to get away from it, I'm right there with you, Chad. Talking football, it's the great equalizer. You meet some random person, they got some football hat on, you can shoot the shit about anything. Everyone's always fallen in the league. Doesn't matter if it's March or May.
Starting point is 00:26:28 We care about football 24-7 year-round, brother. At one point, this is how much we think about football. It's Saturday night. There's about 15 of us sitting around very late at night. You can only imagine what we've been doing in the four or five hours previous. and one of the guys who's married to one of our close high school friends, her husband, says, Chad, Deshaun Watson or Shador Sanders, who's more likely to be in the NFL in the next two years?
Starting point is 00:27:10 And I said Shador Sanders and Matt sitting next to me was like, ah, fuck. and I said, what happened? And he went on to tell this story about four or five years ago. One of his kids was so into the trading card market. And he had come upon a Deshawn Watson, one-of-one rookie card signed by Deshaun Watson. And he had put together a PowerPoint to convince Matt that he should spend an I ordered it an extraordinarily high amount of money on this Deshawn Watson card. And pretty much the second he bought it, Deshawn Watson got labeled with the sexual harassment
Starting point is 00:27:54 and got run out of Houston. It basically hasn't played since. I forgot why I started telling that story. Well, I can finish it for you. I'll just say this. Some of that collects cards, that's why Pokemon One Piece, much safer. You never have to worry about cartoon ever getting a deep. sexual harassment,
Starting point is 00:28:15 anything like that. Sports cards, way riskier. Do you have an opinion, Shador Sanders versus DeShaun Watson in two years who's in the league? Hopefully neither, but I'll definitely go Watson. Over Shador, interesting. Yeah, just, again, it's,
Starting point is 00:28:29 I know the talent's in there. It's all mental. He's just mentally broken. And it's the right therapist, the amount of money he has, he can find a way to get back. But we both agree, we have not seen that in three years now.
Starting point is 00:28:41 No. I think what it's done is done. San Francisco, 10.5 plus 125 to the over. Simon, one, two, three, over. Under. No. I just took the under just because of the division, but yeah, I guess we disagree on this one.
Starting point is 00:28:59 Well, I agree with you on the division. It's hard, but I also agree this Niners team, it's just if they can stay healthy. Can they please stay healthy? If they stay healthy, then they can do everything they need to do to win this division. Last year they were in it at the end of the year. And they were healthy.
Starting point is 00:29:18 They had a cupcake schedule, and they're about to lose Trent Williams. It might begin real ugly fast for the 49ers. So we're going to find out pretty quick. How good is priority dealing with pressure? Because we've seen his body not hold up after taking so many hits early in his career here. That's going to be a knock on him, right?
Starting point is 00:29:35 He's not that 6'5 built like a brick house guy. He's undersized quarterback. So I'm just a little uneasy about them losing Trent Williams, what that offensive line is going to look like with Brock Purdy back there. All right. Last one in the 10 and a half range. Seattle, Seahawks, the world champions, 10 and a half, one, two, three, over. Wow, another disagreement.
Starting point is 00:30:04 Yeah, again, I just, people weren't seeing a trend here. I've taken the under on all three of these guys in this division. it went all right for this division last year. They had tons of wins. They were basically, it doesn't matter, it was going to be four-niners or Seattle, they were going to be the one-seed. And they just overachieved.
Starting point is 00:30:22 We see it time and time again. Those divisions, the schedule dictates so much of that. Like, they're not playing the NFC South again. And, you know, I look at the Seattle team. I know people want us to put, you know, Sam Darno on the top 10 and quarterbacks, and that's a discussion for another day, but this is a man that had, what was it, 12 fumbles and 12 picks.
Starting point is 00:30:44 Like, he just was really lost in the regular season. They kind of were able to hide it and get away with it in the playoffs. And I just look at this team as a team that's going to have to pay a lot of guys that just won a Super Bowl. And we've seen that Super Bowl hangover. Unless you have the number one quarterback in Mahomes or Brady, you tend to have a really down year. It's hard to keep the guys together after having so much success. it really is.
Starting point is 00:31:09 We've seen this league just chew up these teams that win the Super Bowl the previous year. So it's tough because it's a good number at 10 and a half. I think it's a fair price.
Starting point is 00:31:18 But yeah, I do lean to the under on that number. My comp on this is the Eagles from last year, from two years ago to this past year
Starting point is 00:31:26 in that obviously Jalen Hertz is great, but this defense is so good that it will keep them in games when Sam Darnold isn't perfect.
Starting point is 00:31:38 And to me, that's worth five, six, seven wins over the course of a year. So can Sam Darnold win them four games? I think Sam Darnold can win them four games. But my bet is entirely on the defensive side of the ball. That's fair. But you don't love it. Yeah, I would not take their over. You do not agree with it.
Starting point is 00:31:58 It's fair, but you're not agree with it. No, no. All right. So we've heard you've got Buffalo in the over. You like that a lot. You've got Detroit in the Under, you like that a lot. Denver in the Over, you like that a lot. We are going to do a part two of this episode next week for the rest of the bets outside of this sort of 10.5 and over or under that we just discussed.
Starting point is 00:32:23 Before we get to that, Simon, I do want to give one Chad's choice before we get out of here. You can think about it. You can give me your response next week. See if we get any wise guy feedback, some sharp calls. Are you ready? Let's do it. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? My choice.
Starting point is 00:32:49 We can't run from where we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? The Carolina Panthers, Simon, are at six and a half. Six and a half. What kind of sharp? Sharper square participant would I be if I did not go with the Carolina Panthers over six and a half in the NFC South. Do I think the Falcons are going to be unbelievable?
Starting point is 00:33:20 No. Do I think the bucks are going to be unbelievable? No. Do I think the Saints are going to be unbelievable? No, this feels like a very competitive division. So why wouldn't I take the Panthers whose defense got better last year, whose coach I like, who Bryce Young I believe in, and I know he's got some magic at the end of the games. We've now seen it for two straight years.
Starting point is 00:33:41 Why wouldn't I take the year over six and a half with Carolina Panthers? Trap, trap, trap. That's why I love you. Chad, you walked right into it. They got you. They got you good. Yeah, there's a lot of reasons, but I guess I'll say that for part two. I love that you walked right into that trap.
Starting point is 00:34:01 I did want to see what I saw it. I knew right away. She said I said, Chad's going to love that six and a half because we're a Carolina podcast. So I'll end up bending with you just so we can enjoy it all season and suffer together. But yeah, it's a trap. Chad's Choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet, the Carolina Panthers over six and a half. All right. This has been Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet.
Starting point is 00:34:25 Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe. Don't forget, like this video, subscribe, Sharper Square on YouTube. We will be back. On Thursday, we got a great guest. Keith O'Brien, one of our favorite, one of our favorite authors who wrote that big Pete Rose bio has a brand new book coming out this week. People should listen. It's a really good book. Until next time, love you. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions
Starting point is 00:35:15 because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas.
Starting point is 00:35:31 And I'm CJ Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season, and I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was hiring. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis come until he's like, you know I love you, dog.
Starting point is 00:35:50 You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Therapy is fantastic. But once again, it does not have a monopoly on healing. That's why I create the resources and that's why I create the community because I really just want you to have more access. On the podcast, cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lulmex create a space where black women
Starting point is 00:36:14 can show up fully and be heard. It's tough because we're suppressing our emotions and so many of us are like high achieving individuals. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. When you feel uncomfortable, what do you put on? Biggie. You put on Biggie when you feel uncomfortable?
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