The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - FINAL AFC & NFC Conference Championship NFL Playoff Bets: Rams-Seahawks, Patriots-Broncos
Episode Date: January 25, 2026The AFC and NFC Conference Champions will be crowned today in the penultimate weekend of the 2026 NFL Playoffs! Betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter deliver their f...inal five picks for their SHARP OR SQUARE PRO FOOTBALL PICK 'EM CONTEST at https://sharporsquare.thevolume.com/ as our audience competes for a fabulous grand prize trip to South Florida, courtesy of our sponsor Hard Rock Bet! This afternoon starts with Drake Maye and the New England Patriots against Jarrett Stidham and the Denver Broncos, with popular quarterback Box Nix now sidelined by injury. As the sun sets, gamblers will see an NFC West showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, as Matt Stafford squares off yet again vs. Sam Darnold for a third time this season with ticket to the Super Bowl on the line. We end the episode with our final betting contest selections, along with analysis of a few prop bets submitted into the official contest for this week. All their final and official betting picks, all in one fast-paced episode! #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:05:00 - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. DENVER BRONCOS 0:12:29 - L.A. RAMS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 0:21:40 - CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PROP BETS 0:25:00 - OFFICIAL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP CONTEST PICKS -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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This is an IHeart podcast.
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Hey guys, it's us.
The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe.
I'm Kevin.
And I'm Nick.
And guess what?
We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.
We invented a podcast?
Well, we didn't invent it.
We just contributed to it.
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Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021.
And I'm Conky, his best friend and business manager.
And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast.
I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers.
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Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet.
We are part of the volume podcast network.
This is the betting show that makes the Squares sharper and makes the wise guys.
Pay attention.
I am Chad Milman.
I am joined, as always by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional batter.
Simon Hunter.
Hello.
So, Simon.
Chad, we made it to game day.
I love these type of moments because it's the moment before the moment.
Will we have the historical moments that we remember forever?
You know, the catch, the helmet catch.
That's right.
Yeah, the, you know, it's, it's, I honestly, I was, I was joking on the buddy.
If the Bears had won and obviously gone through,
what would we have called Caleb Williams play?
I said the throw.
Because I'm trying to think, is there anything else even comparable?
When you say, did you see that Caleb throw for now for the next couple years?
I feel like everyone's going to mention that fourth down play.
The throw might stick, but obviously we'll move on because it didn't lead to anything.
But it's like the immacral reception, all these amazing names we have for football.
I don't know, that Caleb plays.
So far these playoffs, that's the only one I can think of that.
It was like a historical name that play type of play.
Simon, as an editor, I would make one adjustment to what you're calling it, which I think is brilliant.
I would call it that throw.
That throw.
That throw.
That Caleb throw.
Well, unfortunately, we don't get the bears.
We get an aging quarterback off of an overtime game and short rest against a quarterback who is taking pain-killing shots for an oblique.
We get a backup quarterback against a second-year quarterback who is trying to take his team to the Super Bowl and revoke.
an entire community here in New England.
It is time to get into it, my friend.
It's the conference championship version of the semi-strip down in the room,
sharper square in which Simon and I are going to nail down the five picks.
A lot of injury talk, a lot of line move talk.
If you're in the contest, you can track us at chat at Simon,
chat Simon BFS.
Are you ready, Simon?
Let's go, buddy.
All right.
So this first game is just fascinating, right?
the New England Patriots visiting the Denver Broncos.
Huge line move.
The line is now three and a half.
Four at Hard Rock, but three and a half and a lot of other places.
Total is 43 and a half.
Simon says was Denver at plus five and a half.
The line move has been so big that I got an alert from ESPN yesterday
that it is down to three and a half at most places.
Also, the total has come up from 40 and a half.
Huge, huge move on the Broncos.
professionals just buying in on Jared Stidham.
Basically, they're realizing, wait a second,
there's just not a big enough difference
between Bonnix and Jared Stidham.
We have 100% put the Broncos into our play in the contest
because they were at four and a half in the contest.
So we're invested.
We're just invested in the Broncos in every way.
Yeah, it's nice.
Obviously, we didn't win on Pittsburgh in the first round,
but gave out Pittsburgh.
three and a half.
Only time you could ever get that number last week gave out Denver plus one and a half.
Only time you could ever get that number.
And this week, Denver plus five and a half.
So,
you know,
hopefully we can get another win here on Denver at a good number.
But this is what you dream of when you make those type of bets, right?
I went really heavy on Denver.
Thank God it didn't go up the other way, right?
That's always scary when it goes up to the six and six and a half.
Another way it went complete opposite.
Right now it's down to three and a half four,
which is exactly what you're predicted and we hope to see.
and I think people are like us, right?
They're starting to see the matchup isn't that bad for Denver
as much as they might struggle the quarterback position here, right?
The rest of the team is so complete.
You expect it to carry them.
And just for one game, the guys round around the quarterback here.
It feels like the type of game where it could easily happen.
And I'm happy to see that.
I was a total off when I said this number probably should be three,
three and a half.
The books have finally come around, their senses and reflected that.
And even our futures we talk,
you could have got Denver 13 to 1, 14 to 1,
It's basically 10 to 1 out every book, right?
Yeah.
The pros have kind of watched a tape on sit-in this week.
Stitty is what everyone's calling them.
Stitty.
It's come way down.
And that's the dream for us, right?
So I won't bore people with all the numbers, once again,
I mean, since 1950s, dogs, home dogs are four points or more at home since 1950s people,
9-0 against the spread.
So hoping that continues for us, Chad.
We love the number here.
And we're just really into Patriots.
They are a good team.
do deserve to be here.
They're a tad bit overrated by the general public,
and the line reflected that.
The number went up too high, too quick.
The books, just like I am, are very happy in their position, right?
Can we lose this bet?
Of course.
It's a coin flip.
You never know what can happen, right?
It's sports, but I feel like our early read was right here with back in this
Denver team and just the fact that this is a good match for them.
At home, you know, Sean Payton.
And once again, everyone's seen these numbers with backup quarterbacks.
he's one of the best coaches ever against the spread, right?
He's 13 and 6 against the spread with the backup quarterback.
So we remember the days with Teddy Bridgewater came in
after Drew Breeze got banged up and played really well
and kept covering.
And it's just the kind of the M.O. here with Sean Payton,
he gets the guys a rally around the quarterback play.
So unfortunately for us, Chad, I did bank on Franklin being back.
I don't know if he'll play.
He's been limited all week with the hamstring.
The big one that hurt to me is the Dobbins.
I really thought Dobbin was going to make a run at it to the running back for Denver,
which again, not the biggest day, like you said.
It wasn't like he was going to play a ton of snaps anyway.
To me, it was just a big deal because he is just a leader of that team.
Everyone on the team loves Dobbin.
So at least you'll be on the sideline, but a big miss for them
when not getting diamonds back on the flip side.
Looks like Mac Collins might be back here for the Patriots,
which is a big deal for them as well.
And as much as that hurts us on the spread,
I think that helps us with the total, which we also like here.
So nothing's wavered for me, Chad.
It's still really confident Broncos team and still my favorite bet this week.
I have also heavily invested in Jared Stiddam props.
I'm over his 31 and a half passing attempts.
Okay.
I think I did an alt over his 260 passing yards.
I also did a single game.
I'm going like every rule that I have for myself during the regular season,
I am breaking during the playoffs just because,
just for this game, specifically for this game.
That's funny in action.
I mean, honestly, it doesn't come to compare.
This is probably going to be my biggest bet of the season,
this Denver on this number.
But I'm like you, I did some props.
I would say the prop I'd give on this show.
I took he's over rushing yards.
I mean, that's.
I took Drake May over 40 rushing yards.
Let me just finish because the parley I did.
The SGP I did was Stid him over 260 passing yards,
Stid him over 30, it's 32 plus passing attempts.
and Drake May 40 plus rushing yards.
Because I don't think, we talked about this on the show.
With J.K. Dobbins out, I think that Sean Peyton builds a game plan where he's just leaning into Jared Stidham.
He had 11 rushing attempts, called 11 rushing attempts in that overtime game against the bills.
The Patriots rushing defense is dominant.
It lines up for Stidham, who has never had fewer than 32 past attempts in his four starts,
to just sling the ball.
And it could just be what they go back to, which is Champagne's offense of, if they don't run it,
they're happy.
Champaign's happy have three or four, three or four yard completion.
This is Drew Brady's days.
That's been his at like.
Yeah, that's right.
If he doesn't like the look with the run, he'll have the QB check out of it and just take the three yard, four yard completion, just keep the sticks moving.
So I don't, I don't hate that bet by you at all.
We're also on the over.
We had bet it at 42 and a half in the contest.
that's what's been available.
It's now at 43.5.
Do you have a strong opinion?
43 is a key number.
So do you have a strong opinion
now that it's over 43 and a half?
No, I'm still on it.
Like you, I wish I had hammered this one on Tuesday.
Sure.
It was 40 or 40 and a half.
And my feeling was, though,
it was right that most guys will look at this game
that there could be turnovers by both these quarterbacks, right?
These are both inexperienced quarterbacks.
one's making his first playoffs
or the ones making his first road playoff start.
There's got to be some nerves and some jitters.
So we expect short fields and we've seen Drake May
been really good in the red zone.
He tends to score touchdowns.
And on the flip side,
you've seen Champagne scheming up that his team's getting the red zone,
they tend to score as well.
So I haven't wavered on the total at all.
It's the type of game too where it feels like
if it's even 16, 14 head into the fourth quarter,
you could see a ton of points.
Totally.
It seems like both these teams could turn it on at any point.
And so we just got to keep an arm's reach.
If it's 10-3 at half, I'm not going to be lying.
I'll be a little worried about this total if it's at the beginning.
Because, again, either of these quarterbacks we talk about could easily lay an neck, right?
It's two defenses that have been playing really well, especially, you know, down the stretch for Denver and in the playoffs for this Patriots team.
So I can't wait to see what happens this one.
But, yeah, nice to see the pros are with us, right?
This numbers have been bet up all week.
Los Angeles Rams at the Seattle Seahawks.
the line is still two and a half.
The totals come down just a touch, 45 and a half.
This was our biggest debate of the week to the point where you and I
chatted yesterday and had a long conversation about it.
I think we're still a little bit split, but on the call yesterday,
you had some really compelling arguments about the Seattle Seahawks,
And that is why the Seattle Seahawks at minus two and a half are going to be our brass balls.
Bed of the Week presented by hard rock bet.
You know what it takes?
It takes brass balls.
The Seattle Seahawks going in the contest at minus two and a half.
Share with everybody, Simon, what you told me yesterday.
it convinced me that it was time to pull the trigger on the Seahawks, at least for the contest.
I mean, there's a lot of things. I feel like at the end of the day, what we've talked about,
when both these teams are so evenly matched, when you talk about how they played two games
this year and both decided by two points and one point that it's been that close of a margin,
what was going to be the difference in this matchup, right? If these two teams know each other so well,
and I, ship trying to beat your head over the rest. The rest to me is going to be the
big deciding factor in this game and how these teams hold off, especially in the second half.
And what I brought up to Chad was if he saw that clip, I don't know if anyone else has seen it,
of Caleb Williams at the Blackhawks game walking up the stairs to leave the Blackhawks game.
And he basically looked like a 50-year-old man, or not should even say that, 80-year-old man,
walking up the stairs.
I was going to say 50-year-old men, they can be spry.
They can, but they can look beat up after getting hit around a couple rounds.
But he just looked so broken.
Like he basically was holding the handrail all the way up
and just looked like every step was aching pain.
Okay, Healy Williams is what, 23, 24 years old?
Go to the flip side, go to Stafford, who threw the ball more,
take more hits in that game,
and is now in a short week on the road once again
playing a Seahawks team that is basically well-rested.
Basically, it's played three quarters in three weeks.
Like you couldn't have a dreamt of a better scenario for the Seahawks team.
And it's like that static keep giving out to people,
underdogs in this exact spot.
nine and 25 straight up in the history of the NFL.
It's just, if you're in overtime in the playoffs
and you're on the road now
and you have worse rest than your team you're playing against,
it's a death sentence.
It's just so much overcome.
So Ken Stafford overcome it, of course.
I mean, he, if any quarterback can play well
against Seahawks defense, it's been Stafford.
He has lit them up on the flip side.
Donald has struggled against the Seahawks team,
but I think people are reading way too much into it.
Like these teams are not the same teams they were
last time they've played. They've changed so much, not just because of health-wise, but just
their identity, where I really think the Seahawks team has found something in the sense that
they know they just need to lean into the defense. They just know that. It just feels like they've totally
shifted that way where it's, they've kind of taken the ball out of San Darno's hands. I don't see
them going forward on fourth and twos, fourth and threes. I think they're going to play it safe.
On the flip side, I think McVeigh goes for every fourth down. I think he's be's highly
aggressive. I once again, I think that plays in the Seahawks hands. Like this defense
they will get stopped.
So yeah, this was a tough one.
Like you said, a lot of back and forth.
I would say, whatever confidence you did have in the Rams,
I have much more in the Seahawks,
and that kind of won the battle in our argument.
And yeah, this, that's where we are.
I know it's kind of boring picking both one seats here,
but picking them both for such different unique situations and reasoning.
And the biggest one here for the Seahawks team is,
I just feel like they are going to really pay dividends
to what they did at the end of the season,
which was been in that game against 40.
Niners. Now they've rested well. This, this, you know, this Rams team, they blew that game against the Seahawks.
They blew that game against the Eagles. And we knew eventually it would come back and bite them.
I think this is the game to come back to bite them. Like this is just such a horrible spot to be in.
And they've no one to blame themselves, right? They could have been at home in this exact scenario themselves.
Instead, they're on their fourth straight road game going into a hostile environment. And to me, a game,
something we haven't talked enough about was the special teams matchup, the Rams.
Oh, yeah.
And my model, they've been in the bottom 25 all year.
They fired their coach, like at the end of the season before the season was over.
And got rid of their kicker because he kept missing field goals.
And on the flip side, Seahawks, they're my number three graded special teams.
And once again, we talk about how small these margins are going to be.
These things keep adding up.
And it's just like, how is this not all of this favor of the Seahawks team?
So, yeah, I'm obviously nowhere near as confident I am in the Broncos compared to the Sealk's team.
But I love this bet.
I'm happy of getting this one in the contest.
All right, let's take a quick listen to a word from our friends at Hard Rock.
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Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what?
We have some big news.
What's the news, name?
Huge news.
We created our own podcast called,
Hey, Jonas, we invented a podcast?
Well, we didn't invent it.
We just contributed to it.
We're the first people to do podcasts.
Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts.
We're starting a trend.
but this one's extra special.
So how do we actually come up with a name
Hey Jonas, guys?
I honestly don't remember.
I think it was on a call about what we should call it.
Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it
one of the early names of our band
before Jonas Brothers.
This is how you guys remember it going down?
Yes.
I have a very different memory of this.
We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast,
people could call in and say, hey Jonas.
And then I wrote down on my little notepad.
Hey Jonas and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.
But thanks for remembering that, guys.
Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcast.
Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.
Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends.
Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel,
help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform?
We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends
on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts.
Hey, I'm Jared Adano.
You might know me as that loud guy who yells out,
help on the internet.
Help! Somebody! Please!
But there's so much more to me than that.
I'm an actor. I'm a comedian.
And recently, I've become quite the helper myself.
And on my new podcast, Hope from a Hippocrat, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions.
Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice.
Join me and my comedian friends as we riff rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man.
If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice.
One ring is too scary.
Oh, cream of chicken suit.
Hey, cream.
Cream of chicken soup.
This is Help from a Hypocrite,
the worst advice from the dumbest people you know.
Listen to Help From Hypocrite as part of the Mike Coutura podcast network
available on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts.
Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHart Podcasts presents Soccer Moms.
So I'm Leanne.
Yeah.
This is my best friend, Janet.
Hey.
And we have been joined at the hip since high school.
Absolutely.
Now a redacted amount of years later,
we're still joined at the hip.
Just a little bit bigger hip.
wider. This is a podcast we're recording
it as we tailgate our youth soccer games
in the back of my Honda Odyssey
with all the snacks and
drink. Sidebar. Why did you get
hard seltzer instead of beer? Oh, they had a
bogo. Well, then you got it. Do you want a white
color or something here? Just take it. What are y'all doing?
Microphones? Are you making a rap album?
Oh, I would.
Come on. Can you put it? I would buy it.
Cut through the defense like a
hot knife through
sponge cake. That sounds
delicious. Oh, you're lucky. I'm
a drug addict. You're lucky I'm not an alcoholic. You are. I'm not a killer. I love this team,
and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on. Oh.
Listen to soccer moms on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
We've talked about the sides and the totals. In the contest that we're playing, there are props that
are some of the choices just because we need to make five picks, and there's only two sides and
two totals. So in the contest, the props include for the Patriots and Broncos, Jared Stidham
over or under half an interception. So we'll hear won't he throw an interception. Drake May
over under, I think it was a touchdown. And for this, because we expect Stidham, who hasn't played,
obviously in a couple of years, to be slinging it, we like Stidham.
over the half an interception.
So we like him to throw an interception.
In the Rams and the Seahawks,
the options were Stafford over under 39.5 yards for his longest path.
And Jackson Smith and Jigma in Jigba over under half a touchdown.
We decided to go with Jackson Smith and Jigba under half a touchdown.
Basically no touchdown.
Simon, I thought you just had really good logic on why we were making that choice.
I want you to explain it to everybody
sort of mathematically because you're thinking
about it as professional better, not just sort of as
what might happen on the field.
Yeah, and we love Stiddy.
It's just we're playing the math like Chad just said.
It's now up to minus 140 in the throw pick.
So we're getting
and JSN, another guy where
you know, anytime touchdown minus 110,
sure, that's fair.
If you go through it, okay,
he has 10 touchdowns this season.
in four games he scored two touchdown.
So, I mean, I'm no mathematician, or you guys can do the math.
It's less than 50% chance that he's going to score a touchdown on these games.
If you just go base off this season, he's being priced as if it's, you know,
basically better than 50%.
And if you look at the math as well, it's minus 150 for no touchdown in our contest,
like you Chad said, we're getting minus 110.
So it's a good, it's two really logical good bets.
and yeah, I just, you know, as much as we love Seattle,
and we think JSA has a possibility to score.
There's other pieces of their team
they're going to focus on here,
and we think the Rams,
that'll be the guy that'll be focused on a takeaway.
So I love both our props.
And one more thing I'll get out of here.
I forgot to mention our guy, Evan Abrams,
just one more stat I'll give up before we give out here.
Teams of overtime wins in the playoffs,
six and 13 straight up in the next round,
when they're off overtime and at a rest disadvantage,
one and eight straight up.
And the NFL playoffs history,
it's just once again,
a brutal, brutal spot for this Rams team.
All right.
So our final five,
we're going with the Denver Broncos.
We got them at four and a half in the contest.
They're at three and a half.
We still like them at three and a half.
We are much more invested in the Broncos
and the Broncos success today.
They try to find the four, though.
Yeah, you can get some fours.
We are much more invested across the board
in the Broncos success.
We're also on this game over 42 and a half in the contest.
It's at 43 and a half most places, still like the total there.
We are on the Seahawks.
That's our brass balls.
Bet of the week at minus two and a half.
The rest advantage for the Seahawks was the ultimate deciding factor for us choosing that.
And then we put in two props into the contest.
Jared Stidham to throw an interception and Jackson, Smith, and Jigba to not score a touchdown.
Now, those are the five.
We will be back later tonight.
Our final Sunday show, Sunday evening show of the year.
This has been Sharper Square.
Part of the Volume Podcast Network, the show will come on after the Rams Seahawks game.
We're going to recap all the glory and misery of the day.
It should be an exciting day.
Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.
Like this video.
Subscribe to the channel.
Also, download us in Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate, reviews,
subscribe, leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Until tonight, love you.
The road to the Super Bowl is like a mythic quest. It's a demanding journey, an adventure
that creates heroes. Hey, guys, it's us and the Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick.
And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't
invent it. We just contributed to us. We get to ask other people to do podcasts. We get to ask other
people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions.
Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick.
Tired and sick.
Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Just listen.
We don't care where you hear it.
Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite.
Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends.
Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel.
an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform?
We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
The story I've told myself can then shape my behavior,
and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection.
This Mental Health Awareness Month,
tune into the podcast deeply well with Debbie Brown.
If you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole, this podcast is for you to hear more.
Listen to deeply well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
If you're watching the latest season of the Real Housewives of Atlanta, you already know there's a lot to break down.
Orsha accusing Kelly of sleeping with a merry man.
They holding Kay Michelle back from fighting Drew.
Pinky has financial issues.
On the podcast, Reality with the King, I, Carlos King,
recap the biggest moments from your favorite reality shows,
including the Real House Wise franchise,
the drama, the alliances, M&T, everybody's talking about.
To hear this and more, listen to Reality with the King
on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcast.
This is an IHart podcast, guaranteed human.
