The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - FINAL Divisional Round NFL Bets: Rams-Panthers, Packers-Bears, Niners-Eagles, Chargers-Patriots

Episode Date: January 17, 2026

The Divisional Round of the 2026 NFL Playoffs is finally here, and betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter deliver their final five picks for their SHARP OR SQUARE PRO FOOTBALL PICK 'EM CONTEST at https://sharporsquare.thevolume.com/ as our audience competes for a fabulous grand prize trip to South Florida, courtesy of our sponsor Hard Rock Bet!  This afternoon, Josh Allen and the injured Buffalo Bills face Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos in a game that's been tantalizing to the market public. On Saturday night, an NFC West divisional re-match between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. Can Brock Purdy defeat quarterback Sam Darnold in a playoff showdown? And is the new Sam Darnold injury concern making Seattle a risky venture with the potential involvement of backup Drew Lock? On Sunday, our hosts must make a decision on quarterback C.J. Stroud and his Houston Texans, who enter Foxboro as underdogs to Drake Maye and the New England Patriots. We end the episode with our final betting contest selections, along with analysis of Sunday night's game between quarterback Matt Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams, who travel to Chicago to take on Caleb Williams and Bears in freezing temperatures. All their final and official betting picks, all in one fast-paced episode! #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:05:40 - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS TOTAL 0:09:59 - HOUSTON TEXANS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS SPREAD  0:15:40 - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS SPREAD 0:20:40 - LOS ANGELES RAMS VS. CHICAGO BEARS SPREAD 0:30:00 - OFFICIAL DIVISIONAL ROUND CONTEST PICKS -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter.  Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I'm joined as always by my co-host, my companion, my confidre, my BFF professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? Dude, look, I'm about to embark on a few days of an adventure.

I feel like, I feel so freaking lucky I cannot tell you. I'll be in Miami to my closest buddies, Andy and Matt, who grew up with me, we all grew up together outside Chicago, we all went to Indiana. We're all going to be at the game on Monday night. We'll be there for the Bears game on Sunday night. These are like, honest to God, not to get sentimental, just glorious opportunities and weekends that just don't come around that often. So I'm ready to roll, brother.

Ready to roll. Are you? Yeah. No, I mean, like we talk about times. The best time of year if you love good football, right? It's the highest level being played. And you're just fortunate enough that both your two favorite teams are still here playing. And it is, let's see the date.

January 17th, I can't believe it. Chad's in the finals for the playoffs with his Indiana Hoosiers and the Bears. It's a real possibility where we're sitting here next week and they're playing for a championship of their own conference. It's a crazy time right now for chat. And a lot of, like you said, a lot of Chicago fans, a lot of them have ties to Gannis. Of course. It's a great time for the Midwest.

Nice man coming. Go Caleb. All right, this divisional weekend version of the strip down in the room, eavesdropping, Sharper Square. We're going to narrow it down to final five picks. A lot of injury conversations, weather lines being impacted. You can see the dynamic contest line, Simon and I are playing at the free Sharper Square. Pro Football Pickham Contest, if you've signed up to play at sharper square.thevolume.com,

you can track us in the contest at Chad and Simon BFFs. Don't forget we're playing both sides and totals in the contest. Simon, we will lock in based on all the games. So we're going to talk about all the games. There's only four of them. We're going to go in order of what I think our top five are. right now, not in the order of the schedule. So Seattle, San Francisco, under 45 and a half. This was Chad's choice. It continued to tick down. It's at 45 in some places, 44 and a half elsewhere. It is 45 and a

half in the contest. I think it's ticked down maybe because of the darn old news. I'm leaking a little bit of confidence. Something tells me that I know, well, I know from Killer Sports there's a trend that when two teams have gone grossly under and the two times they've played, the third time goes over. But I just can't see schematically between the way the Seahawks are going to want to play this game and some of the limitations the Niners have on offense with the personnel on the field, this game feels like it should go under to me. So I'm still on the under. I want you to make me feel really good about it.

Yeah, still don't know with you, but I saw that stat too. I think it's like basically if you blindly bet the over here, it's a 57% success rate. Yes. It's just a long term. Like Chad said, these two teams technically, maybe that's what we've been missing here, right? Because we both could not understand this total.

And, you know, it's in the playoffs, especially the week we're coming off, I feel like every bet we're going to make is going to have a little leak of confidence here. But I'm dug in on it. I still think the under is a play. If anything, seeing the Sam Darnal news, I don't know about you, but it made me even happier for our bet early down the under just because,

I mean, think about how much they use his legs. Yeah. Outside the pocket and, you know, get different looks from the defenses because it's, we talk about it all year. The San Darno has not played well. But where he has played well is within the offense, get at the JSN, that's been the key, right? So for any time the plays break down, he uses his legs. he's always looking for JSN, his best receiver,

and it's been magical for them, right? Every time they need a third down, it feels like he finds that guy. So, you know, as soon as I saw that injury news, I did think this would pop at six and a half. It seems like the way they're talking, it's not, they're trying to make it not to be not as serious,

and the books reflect that, but, like, we're going to go through it here, like all the, how the public's been doing like that. This is, a game with the public has been hammering this under, and they've been hammering the Niners and the pros have been hammering the Seahawks.

and they've been hammering the over. So we're definitely on the public side here. We talked last week though the public does win the playoffs. That stuff doesn't really matter as much. And, you know, here, I'm still shocked to be seeing the seven. I'm still shocked to see it's having, but we talked about it. It's just there's that many injuries for the 49ers, right? They're that banged up.

The books have to hang this one. So, yeah, if I had to pick a number here, if I had to say, well, I'm more confident on the seven or I'm more confident the under, I would go with the under. I mean, if you have to pick a side of here, obviously, I'm going the 49ers, but I still really like the underplaying. Just about both, I see these offenses playing, right? I think they're both going to try to lean heavy into the run for this matchup and ball control.

So, yeah, this one, like you said, is ticked down, was 46. Now a lot of books are shown 45. A couple of them already moving to 44.5 this morning. So once again, we see if Sam Darnas fully cleared, you know, we get the guy on the sideline before and saying, he's running well he's looking good this could steam up another point again so uh i wouldn't be upset if you missed it if you're a book shown 45 and a half or 44 and a half i do think i might be able to get back to 46 but i would grab the 45 and a half now just to be safe if if he does

go out there and it's not right and they do have to start true lock this might steam down four or five points on the total and maybe three four points on the side so we're all waiting baited breath here to hear what's going on sam don't know sam don't but I just, I cannot see him missing this game. If anything, he'll do what you see these other quarterbacks do, right? Take the shot, whatever he needs to do and just get out there and play on one leg.

It's just, this is what he just played for 18 weeks to get to. I just can't see Sam Darnhamis in this game. All right, well, the under was Chad's choice. So I got a feeling it's going to make it into our final five. The other day, you surprised me with a complete 180. I don't know if there was bullying involved from professionals or not, and committed to the Patriots potentially being one of your biggest bets for the weekend,

Patriots are minus three. That minus three and a half at Hard Rock bet right now. I mean, Nico Collins not playing as a factor, but it's just, it's a challenging one because this Texan defense is so good. So give me your current take. Are you still leaning into the Patriots as feel? go favorites. Yeah, still leading into it.

We've talked a little bit about it where this Houston defense, they are historically great. If there is a team that could go up to New England and pull off an upset, no doubt it is the Houston team. But it really is when the games, you break it all down and you look at the different trends, everything it feels like favor versus the England team. I mean, we've obviously seen this trend with Drake May

as a favor of three points or more, 11 and 0 straight up 9 and 2 against the spread Even when you pull it back even further This Texas team they've won 10 straight games In the history of the NFL Teams that have won 10 straight games Are now they're an underdog In the divisional round

0 and 4 straight up 1 and 3 against the spread in that exact spot Yeah and it's just We talk at the time how rare it is right A team is won 10 straight And now they're bigger than a 3 point dog on the road with a team that's great out as a number two defense. It's not shocking to see how the split the bets are here.

The public side definitely is the Patriots, right? You've seen even the start of the week, the more than the public money was coming on this Patriots team. But we've finally seen some professional money coming on this Patriots team and drive it up to three and a half. When it's been sitting at three all week, it's starting to slowly move up now to three and a half. And we talked, we love the total.

There are 41's up there. I mean, Hard Rock here in Jersey, still 41. That's another line that started taking. down a little bit, right? It's come down now, a couple of books down to 40 and a half. And another game, you could see if there's a little bit of weather, could easily drop below 40. So points are going to be really tight here. And we've talked a little bit about it. I just have so many questions with this Houston team where, you know, my questions I do have about Drake Bay and the snowing on offense,

I still think they're going to be able to move the ball. As good as this Houston defense has been, the one real weakness they've had is deep ball passing and teams that can attack the ball downfield. Drake May is number two, I believe, ingrated balls downfield. And he was number one on the EPA per play on balls throwing 20 yards downfield. Like he's been really impressive putting the ball down field.

And if that's the only real weakness to Houston defense, you expect him to exploit it. Like that, I mean, we didn't talk too much about the Pittsburgh game, but Aaron Rogers, he had guys downfield.

He just didn't have the time, right? He never had the time because you can't use his legs. And there were some drops. Yeah. I mean, that one that stands out to the huge same to me is that he came back. have brutal drop. Change the game. Change the game.

He was going to be a touchdown. And then he didn't go to him for about two quarters after that. So, you know, looking at this matchup, there are ways for them to attack it. And yeah, if the number scares you off terribly, honestly, my biggest investment is, once I heard those trends in the numbers about the money line, I've really invested heavily in the money line. So once again, shop around, get the three. You don't have to take the three and a half.

But we're stuck with a three and a contest. I don't hate it because we're having a. tough time finding the five here. But yeah, I think this type of game where Patriots just roll not just offensively, defensively with Ravel and Houston, you know, we've seen CJ struggle on the road. I think losing Nico is going to be too much for him to overcome here. So it's a really interesting match of the fact that this number, I was sitting at three all week and now we're heading into Saturday here.

And it's finally getting professional money to get bumped at minus three and a half. As Simon, you know, as soon as we're done here, I'm taking off to see the Indian Hoosiers playing the national college football championship game at the very cool and famous hard rock stadium in Miami Gardens. And thanks to our friends at Hard Rock Bet, I will be there live. The best place to stay when you're down there in Florida, Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, Hollywood, Florida. It is the closest place. Also, the guitar hotel there is incredible.

I've stayed there. I've played there. That's why it's the grand prize in our pro football pick-em contest. Some lucky winners can get to experience that as well. I'll be in the sports book. I'm going to be soaking it all in. I'm going to be using the top-rated hard rock bet app when I'm not there so I can hammer the Hoosiers. It's the only legal sports betting app available in the state of Florida. Say hello to me.

They'll be handing out profit boost tokens to use on the game. And select VIPs are getting instant bonus bets dropped right into their accounts. Be sure to check it out. Can't wait to get down there. See folks at the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino. San Francisco Seattle, the number we just touched on it, we didn't go as deep as we did into the total. Ricky Piersall, San Francisco 9-49- receiver, is confident he's going to play. But there's no George Kittle, there's no Trent Williams.

There could be real challenges for this running game. However, the darn old news has changed some of the calculus on this. Simon, we didn't really dig deep on it. but I think we can both say that we will be on the Niners in this game at plus seven and a half. It's now at seven. And the contest, it's going to be at seven and a half. Yeah, I had a couple of people ask right away. Is this not like when we were heavily backing the Seahawks against Carolina Panthers, right?

And that number went up to eight, you know, minus eight at one point in the Seahawks. And they absolutely rolled that Panthers team. And it's like, aren't you worried you guys are stepping here with this Niners team? And, you know, playoffs are very different. We talk how the teams play so tight. The only thing that's giving me some type of pause would just be everyone I've talked to professionally and public-wise is on this Niners team. I know some groups that are contrarians and they're on the Seahawks, but money-wise, guys, I respect, it's all Niners right now. So I'm not shocked to see this one come down.

I'll hit you with a stat one more time that I really love from Evan. Road teams that missed a playoffs last year that are a dog in the divisional round, 29 and 14, so 67% against the spread since 2003. So we talk all the time. It's usually a team that's a little underrated. This Niners team is not. There are more people are comfortable with betting them. You know, I gave out that stat.

Shanehan basically has been dominant winning these games. Outrides 3-0. Divisional round is a dog straight up, which is really impressive. But I did see this crazy stat basically about teams that were underdogs in a wild card round. and now they're in the divisional round as an underdog. Since 2003, these teams are 3 and 22 straight up, 13 and 12 against the spread. So that goes for 49ers, Bills, and Chicago. So the 3 and 22 straight up one really jumped out to me.

Like maybe they cover, what it just shows how winning these games back to back as a dog is so hard. It is so hard, which makes sense, right? especially on the road for the Niners and the bill and the bills. So yeah, for me, you know, I'm not going to put too much, obviously, in the money line here. Maybe I'll pull that back a little bit, but on the plus seven plus seven and a halfs, I'm happy to walk right into it. Like this is, we might get burned here, Chad, but long term, this would be a winner, right? Going four in the future, we have to keep going back to that where it's like, okay,

teams that didn't make the playoffs the year before now, big dogs and division around, they just cover. Like historically, they've covered in this exact spot. So I know it's scary with all the injuries. We've talked about it. Just third time playing each other divisional game, you expect to be tight. I just, everything went wrong the last time they played.

Like, it really did. Like that pick in the red zone and the CAFRI, that just does not happen with him, right? So I really get into this one at the end of the day. It's like, you know, talk all the time about not overthinking this one. I'm trying to ever think it where it's like, guys, we're getting a great number here. Let's take it.

Especially in contest, if it's seven and a half, Chad. that's going to be a real hard choice to pass on that number. I don't know that we can. Yeah. I'll be honest. We talked about Houston, New England, the side. But just to be clear, we are on Houston, New England, and the under. If you can get the 41, get it.

It's also at 40 and a half, below the key number. I took it at 40 and a half. This was our brass balls. I think we're going to have a hard time leaving this one out of the contest, too. Yeah, and I mean, live, that Seahawks game we just talked, about Chad's, Chad's favorite bet the under, it is now moving almost every book to 44. There we go. So again, this is, I mean, to lose my mind all day because is this same darnal movement?

Are we, like, I can't wait to get off this call and try to find out more. And obviously, I hear anything that I can put out there I would beforehand, but Schifter will always beat me, beat me to the punch. It's what the end does. It gets paid millions of dollars to do that. But, yeah, for this game, I haven't wavered at all. I still love the under. And once again, it's another one of I'm happy we got ahead of it, you know,

just because the Nico Collins, it didn't move this by a point. Yeah. Yeah, to me, if any game is stupid enough to go over with some fluky plays, this would obviously be the game, right? We have two defenses that can be beat by deep balls, but I just can't see CJ having a career day here without his guy in Nico Collins, especially the fact that Christian Gonzalez is back. And he's back with no residual effects, right?

They said he is totally cleared. They didn't have any sleep issues or anything like that. So huge deal to know that Gonzalez is going to be locking down half the field here against an already banged up and weak Houston team. And, you know, Houston also might have an injury to the offensive line. So can Milton Williams take advantage of that? We'll see. But Patriots, as bad as their pass rush, I thought, was against the Chargers last week. I felt their coverage was excellent.

So I'm really excited to see this defensive match with both these guys. Rams minus four at Chicago. Here's a great stat for you. 40 years ago this week, the Chicago Bears last played the Los Angeles Rams in the playoffs. I was at that game with my buddy Matt. Matt and I will be watching the game together in much warmer conditions than we did that day in Chicago, watching it from Miami.

Back then it was the Monster of the Midway Super Bowl shuffle Chicago Bears who completely dominated the Rams and they were favorites. Bears underdogs here, but it's going to be icy. It's going to be conditions. I'm getting pictures from friends of the George Hallis statue outside of Georgia Field just covered in snow. What are we doing here? I know what I'm doing.

I'm definitely still on this Rams team And for full game, I'm doing it But obviously my bigger bets I've talked about My positions are the Rams first half It's minus two and a half now, I believe, And obviously the under for the first half. So, you know, I'm a little gun shy to see With this whole Bears second half,

They burned me for so much money last week. But we talked about it's, I know lightning doesn't strike twice, But if they're down 14 a half, you've got to throw a little bit on the Bears' money line once again. I mean, they just, they keep, this is who they are, right?

At this point, you can't deny it. What is that number? Was that number eight or nine come back within the last two minutes of a game? Seven, well, you say lightning doesn't strike twice. For the Bears, lightning has struck seven times this year because they've come back. It is who they are.

That's what I mean. They've come back with two minutes down, two minutes left in the game seven times NFL record. To your point, though, We owe people a rock in a hard place bed of the week presented by hard rock bat. We're going a little bit off the board here. We've been talking about it all week. Our rock and a hard place bed of the week presented by hard rock bat is going to be

the Rams in Chicago, the first half under. We liked it at 25 and a half on Tuesday. It's a 23 and a half. We're still recommending you take the under at 23.5. Let's get a quick word from our sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. We'll come back on the other side with our final five. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet, with Miami. It's making the national championship.

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We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys?

I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.

But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. Help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert

Smigel and friends on the I-heartedly. radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs,

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Listen to SportsSlice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand. because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast,

I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay. Jenchian win. I mean, she went down to three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lena Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now, and I actually can win on any surface.

Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. All right, brother, listen, I'm leaving the last one up to you. I think we're locked in on Seattle, San Francisco, under 45 and a half in the contest, San Francisco plus seven and a half,

New England minus three and a half, and the total in the New England-Husston game, which is 40 and a half. I'm sort of at a loss on the other games. I know you love the Rams, so it's at four and a half in the contest. We can also get 48.5. On the total in that game,

or do we just go off the board with Buffalo and Denver and take the over in that game, even though I don't like anything in that game? Yeah, like we talked, the 49ers one we both love. I get all those stats, right? I think it was Purdy, four and no against the spread, straight up in his career.

He's never lost in Seattle winning those games by 10 points per game. So he's obviously been dominant when he goes up there, Brock Purdy, but yeah, for that, for that Bill's Denver game,

you know, I gave you those stats. It's really, really hard to win back-to-back playoff games on the road, especially when you have a banged-up team. So it stinks for us.

I wish I could dig in more and be heavy on Denver, but the Josh Allen effect, I think both of us is just scared us off. But I am obviously still on the Denver side. Yeah, if you want to go with the over in that game, I could support it. But to me, if I had to give out the five-by-like, I would do 49ers plus seven and a half. I'll do the under with you.

I'd want to do Patriots minus three and a half. I'll take the under with you in that one as well. And for the last one, if I had to stick it in, I guess I would go Rams over Denver here just because at the day, I won't hate myself if I lose on staff for it against Caleb. Where if we lose in the contest, because I took Bo Nix over Josh Allen. Terrible. Yeah, I could see the fans absolutely crushing me.

So that's where I'm out with that one. It's like, I feel good. I feel good. Kind of hate both of them. But that's how it is. We at this time of year, it's hard not to have the fan in us. I think both fans of us want the Bears and the bills to both win.

Yeah. But that's the tough part here. I'm trying not to make, let that filter in here. So I'm going to leave it. up to you, buddy. Would you rather do Denver or L.A.? We're going to go with the Rams. I hate it, but it's this, like, I don't have any... You can't lose. I don't have any feeling on the Bills and the Broncos. I don't love the number. I don't want to bet against Josh Allen, but it's a bad situation. Whereas the Bears, I could see

them winning. And if I lose this game, because the Bears won, I've emotionally hedged. I'm totally fine. I feel really good about other four picks. Yeah, and again, people have asked, obviously, it might feel like the sucker bet of the day, but the bills, you can tease them up to seven and a half, I get it. Like, I've thrown them in a bunch of bets as well, even though I'm heavy on the Denver side. It just is Josh Allen really going to get blown up by Bo Nix? That feels like something that can't actually happen here. But, yeah, the, you know, these lines, Jay, like we talk about time, they're really tough here.

But, yeah, I'm happy we're going to Rams over that Denver pick. All right. So we got Seattle and the Rams under 45 and a half. We got the Niners plus seven and a half. The Patriots minus three and a half. The under in the Houston Patriots game, 40 and a half. And the Rams minus four and a half. Those are our official five picks.

Those have been submitted. This has been Sharper Square. Part of the volume podcast network, we will be back on Sharper Square on Sunday night after the Bears. Rams game. We'll recap a lot of misery, and I'll be prepping for the Indiana Hoosiers in the national title game on Monday. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, Libus 5 stars, say whatever you want.

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