The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL Week 4 Bets: Chargers-Giants, Ravens-Chiefs, Eagles-Bucs and more

Episode Date: September 28, 2025

NFL betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter select their final five betting picks for NFL Week 4. They select their top best bets for against the spread picks to enter in their weekly NFL contest. Games covered today include Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens vs Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints vs Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills, and the LA Chargers vs the new-look New York Giants under Jaxson Dart. Do they have what it takes to fade the red-hot Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams? Are the Cleveland Browns cooked vs the Detroit Lions? And will the Philadelphia Eagles fade late vs Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? All these questions answered in this fast-paced episode! #Volume All lines provided by Hard Rock Bethardrock.bet  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter.  Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the NFL betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys. Pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co-host, my BFF. my companion, my compadre professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

I am great, brother. This is the stripped down in the room, eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. Simon and I are going to try to nail down the five picks, the final five picks now that we've seen injuries, we've seen line moves, everything we need to make the best possible decision. Simon, are you ready?

All right, these are the games we've here, in on the other day. And for better, for worse, not a ton of moves that have been impacting, I think, our decisions on the field and in the markets. Let's start with the Chargers. So the chargers are now six and a half at the New York Giants. We know Jackson Dart is starting for the Giants. This was Chad Loves. And I think it's one of the more controversial moves that we made all week just because we don't know what's going to happen with Jackson Dark as the new starting quarterback for the Giants. And it's so freaking chalky to be taken a big favorite. I still like him at six and a half. I've bet him at six and a half. I'm not walking away from that. The good news is

in our contest that we play, the charges at five and a half, which makes me feel even better, even though You know, the percentage difference is not that big. I still like it at five and a half. Yeah, and I'm going to trust you and trust the number. I think we're both on the same page where, yeah, exactly, exactly right, where we know dark can come in and be the spark and, you know, do some of those Chargers defense that they just can't prepare for, right? This is a unique opportunity for him.

They have no film on them. And, you know, like Chad said, it's the squares pick we could possibly make. Every pro I know is on the other side. And me and Chad know this, though. Every week they're going to be on the giant side. So try not to overthink it. Try to stay true to ourselves that we're just playing the number here. And I feel like you nailed it.

If this was six and a half, I could probably talk us out of it, but a five and a half with that little bit of wiggle room. I can lie to myself and say at least we're getting a good number here. And I'm just happy it's a road. It's a team on the road because right now, like Chad knows, I'm just in love with these home teams right now. So chalk on the road in this spot. I'll go with you on it. It's a unique spot because I just think this Chargers defense, even with all their injuries, you know, they should be able to handle this kid dart. And, you know, the questions right now, what the pros are attacking on the giant side is the injuries to the Chargers offensive line.

And you saw last week you can't get after Herbert. but you just see it being a big Hampton kind of game where they just lean on the running game finally take it out of Herbert's hand and this is going to be an interesting game to watch I'm not going to lie Chad so five and a half I am on board with you even at six I bet the Chargers

so I'm invested like I'm invested in this chalk side and we say it all the time chalk does win hopefully this is the right time we pick it I think it's one of the games that scared me most all year even more than the Eagles you know as the home favorites against the Rams last week.

I've loved this game and hated this game. Oftentimes when you get locked in in a game, you all of a sudden realize come Sunday morning, how did it not see this? How did not see the other side? And I'm worried about this for the Chargers. But we're there, we're in five and a half in the contest, six and a half is the bet that I've made.

You made it at six. Philadelphia, Tampa, we've been talking about it all week, beat up Bucs team at home getting the ever important hook beat up Eagles team on the road getting the early money that pushed this up it's three and a half everywhere it's three and a half in our contest

we're gonna want to be on the Bucks and Baker at the hook any reason to be walking away from this right now the only one I can think of is it's too easy I can't believe they're giving us the hook still Like even this morning I woke up and I was thinking, you know, no way it's still three and a half. I should say on Saturday I woke up thinking there should be three and a half.

And then last night, late night, I was like, okay, this will move to three now that all these guys are getting cleared. Still doesn't budge, still three and a half and the Eagles are still taking a ton of money. So, yeah, this is the sharp side for sure. The square side is the Eagles, but the sharps are on the Eagles as well. There's some respected money clearly on the Eagles side that's keeping this number propped up. So like we said, we're just going to trust the number. Eagles, you know, warranted. They're the defending champs.

They're really talented. The bucks are banged up. We know what we're bent into, right? We got Baker that has a banged up tricep, all these things. He's got injuries. You know, Godwin's first game back. But I just like the matchups. And defensively, I like the matchups for the Bucks team.

I think that's something the public is overlooking that that's the strength. This Bucks team matches up really well, what will the Eagles want to do? and we'll see. Maybe Hertz can do it again and put the ball down field, but I think he's going to see that Todd Bulls defense, which is always giving him problems. You know, the pushback I've heard from fans, especially locally after I do the show,

is that the Eagles didn't have AJ Brown for four of those matchups, and that's a big difference. And I agree, that is a big deal. But you just look at the way Todd Bulls plays Hertz, it feels like he has his number, and it all starts with V-D-V-A, stop on the run. And, yeah, I'm really just playing the number here, Three and a half just feels like too many points.

Too much disrespect to a Bucks team. So I know it's scary. Me and Chad talked about, we're betting these two first team we just talked about. Both these teams were three and no against the spread. Or I guess the Bucks didn't cover last week, but Chad knows I mean. We're been in undefeated teams right now for our first two picks.

But I just love the number. I don't know about you. I just love the number with Baker in this spot that if he does lose, I just can't see him buying more than three. He keeps games close. You can never count him out. So the Eagles want to be. beat us here they're going to have to blow out this buck's team which i just don't see happening yeah look

it to me this is a little bit like you in the chargers i like it i don't love it i like the three and a half i like the tristan werfs the left tackle is back considering the other injuries on tampa bay i like the guy when is back considering evans is out i never worry about baker and injuries because baker just balls no matter what uh and i do think it's it's a good spot to fade the eagles who are probably to me a little bit inflated after what happened last week against the Rams. So I don't love it. I like it. I don't know that we have five better games, to be honest. So that's also what I'm thinking about. Cleveland at Detroit, the game was at eight and a half. It got up to nine. It got up to nine and a half. In some places it's 10. In our contest right now, it's at nine and a half.

I'm just going to say one thing. I'm not sure that matters. Like we can talk about we wish we were getting an eight and a half with which we were getting a nine 2% of NFL games and on nine 6% end on 10 right So I don't want to talk myself out of this Because of a half point difference in a number that isn't as key as the 10 which we're still under and I know wise guys have been betting this up at the nine and a half because there's a lot of places this is number is a 10. So it was our brass balls. Are we crazy for still wanting the lions at nine and a

half? No, let's be a quick one. Love the lines. Nothing's changed. There's some pros on the other side that like Cleveland and I get it. But I think our early reading the week was right. It's still right today. And I'll own it. If you don't if you're not as confident this one, I'm really confident. I'll own it later tonight if this isn't come through. But I this is like my, probably one of my bigger bets is this lion's side in a spot and you know there are nine and a halfs out there people so go grab it get it below the 10 and yeah I love it for our contest it's it's very like we said we're very chalky this week it's another pick I just I love that's chalky yeah I actually am with you I totally love it they're I'm trying to trying to figure out why I don't

love it I'm trying to talk myself out of it because it's a big number and it's chalky but it's just it keeps moving in the lion's direction, and it was moving before Sunday morning when all the public is piling in. It's been moving that way all week with Wise Guy Money, a little bit of pushback, but generally Wise Guy Money pushing it up. So if we're getting under the 10,

I feel like this is the most confident play we have so far. Of the three games we've talked about, easily the most confident play that we have. Yeah, really respected money came in heavy on the Browns once they hit 10 and a half. So they'll let you know. The pros, they are on the Browns, but I just, I really like this line side.

And the fact that a lot of books right now are heavy Cleveland side, just shows the public is, you know, they're bought in on that Cleveland team, right? They just, that was such a huge win last week. I'm shocked to see that there's so much public love

for that Cleveland side. And this is going to be, like we said, there's going to be his exact teams. This is a prime example of his exact team. This Brown's team at home on grass is going to be a totally different. team, and especially in this spot, indoors on this turf where we've seen this Lions team,

they're humming right now. So I'm glad we're in sync here, brother. Also, the one thing I've been thinking a lot about this game, obviously, it's my biggest bet of the week, too, probably at a bigger scale than you, Simon, because that's the kind of numbers I play. But the one thing that people are forgetting, we loved the Browns last week, we loved the spot last week. The Packers had crazy injuries on the offensive line throughout that game that made them completely ineffective. So I don't want that to be forgotten as a reason why I'm liking the lion so much as I think they're healthy. They're playing at home. They're on turf. It's just a better spot to me for the lines than the Browns last week when we nailed it. Indy at the Los Angeles Rams, three and a half

across the board, it has not come down. I will not lie. I have not bet the Rams yet. I'm still hoping as we get closer to kick off, if I got to eat it and I miss the number and I get the four, I'll live with it and it pushes fine. But I'm really trying to be patient and wait for the three. We're not gonna have that option in the contest. It's three and a half, you know, do we believe the Rams or the team

that could have been beaten the Eagles and are three and O if they hadn't been so conservative and the Eagles hadn't found their rhythm? Do we believe the Colts or the team that could be two and one if they hadn't gotten that penalty? against the Broncos at the end of the game and being able to kick an extra field goal attempt

to win the game against the Broncos and have otherwise beaten up on bad teams are we going to have to completely readjust our power ratings after this game? Simon, this is one of your biggest bets. Are we still into the Rams? Yeah, still love them, but same as you, where I have other games I bet a lot on as well

and I like them just as much. And if we do pick the right, Rams out. I'd be okay with it because there's other games I do love. Like I said, I didn't realize that I'm very heavy on these four o'clock games and all these home teams. So yeah, this is just another team. I think they're being undervalued. But like we talked about this Colts team, they're scary to bet against right now just because they are such a juggernaut. And we've see a million ways that they could keep this close. But I just have to trust that they are a better team that have played much tougher teams and we're selling a Colts team that is at its peak level

but yeah Chad it's I get your hesitation like you said I'm shocked at three's then pop just because there's so much love and respect right now with this Colts team in the professional community I thought for sure they'd bet this down I mean a handful of books right now it's all Colts money and this number is just held even randomly it'd pop three and then it'd go right back up to three and a half so I get your hesitation I have a little bit hesitation as well I guess this would be our fifth one right now, in my opinion, that I'm looking at our five picks, but I'm still confident, still believing it. I just, I have a hard time trying to keep selling you on it where it's like, you know where I'm at.

I just think the culture overrated a little bit here, a little inflated on the line, and that the Rams have the weapons to attack this team. And the only hesitation is Devante Adams popped up on the injury report. I still think that's just something they have to report. I have no doubt he's going to be playing today. So to me, the Rams, offense, full go, bounce back spot after a brutal loss last week. Today's show was brought to you by our new presenting sponsor,

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in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Indiana, or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply, concerned about gambling. In Florida, call 1-888 admit it. In Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers, and guess what? Big news. What's the news?

Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special.

So how did we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. And before Jonas Brothers... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this.

We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey, Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guide, Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? This Isaiah Thomas. And I'm CJ Tolley. Dono in our podcast Point Game is about defining the odds.

Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series

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Like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get. get your podcasts. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHeart Podcasts presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne. Yeah. This is my best friend Janet.

Hey. And we have been joined at the hips since high school. Absolutely. Now a redacted amount of years later. We're still joined at the hip. Just a little bit bigger hips. Wider. This is a podcast.

We're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey. With all the snacks and drink. Sidebar. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? Well, they had a bogo. Well, then you got it. Do you want a white collar or something here? Just hit it.

Oh, what are y'all doing? Microphones? Are you making a rap album? Oh, I would. Come on. Could you move? I would buy it. Cuts through the defense like a hot knife through sponge cake.

That sounds delicious. Oh, you're lucky. I'm not a drug addict. You're lucky I'm not an alcoholic. You are. I'm not a killer. I love this team, and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on. Oh.

Oh. Oh. Listen to soccer moms on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right. So on the fence about the Rams, we still like the chargers, we still like the Bucks, we still like the Lions. So these are some games we can choose from and tell me if I'm missing anything. Jacksonville at San Francisco. San Francisco is three and a half.

We've liked it at three. We liked that Brock Purdy is playing. We're less concerned about the lack of Nick Bowman. even though he's been driving the pressure for this Niners defense. So obviously they have a lot to prove against the Jacksonville pass game that if they aren't dropping the ball can potentially be effective. To me, this is a bet on Sala, a bet against Trevor Lawrence, a bet on Purdy, a bet against the Jags who we don't think have played competition

and aren't that good yet. But do we like him better than the Rams? Do we like him better than any other teams at three and a half? No, like again, I told you, I'm heavy on the first. four o'clock games. I bet it. I'm all the four hours, but this is probably my least bet of all these four o'clock games. Baltimore at Kansas City, I got to tell you, I don't want to do this one. No, you're scared of it? I'm a little bit scared. Well, I also think there's one more game that I want to talk about that I think might just be better value. Right. But if you're super confident,

tell me. No, I am. Like, I'm confident in this number, believe in this team, the matchup for the Chiefs and that this Ravens team. I know people think the Chiefs have more problems right now, but I think the Ravens have more problems. And this number just scares me for the exact same reason as you. It's, we're betting against Lamar, where we know he has the better offense right now. And we're kind of betting on them that, you know, they easily could be undefeated, right? A couple fluky fumbles by Derek Henry. So are we betting a bad number? Could me and Chad be having a three and a half and we're taking a two and a half where it's not that great. I'm sorry. It's just it's an interesting line and it's it's very divided where the public is very, very heavy on this Raven side. And once again, makes me more confident in my chief side. And I tweeted last night. I think it was one in the morning. The number went to two at Hard Rock. So some really respected money came in took this number down at two at Hard Rock. And like I'm here in Jersey right now, it's back up to two and a half. But that just shows that the pros, they're all aligned. They're all in this chief.

side. The public is very aligned. They're all in this Ravens side. So matchup-wise, I think worthy coming back is a huge deal. And I just got to believe in my homes in this scenario that, yeah, that Eagles team that beat them, you saw there's a million other ways that the chiefs could have covered, right? Like, they kind of gave that game away. So I don't know. I just have to believe in this chief's team and believe the number. It's just, I have it at a pick. It's two and a half, Chad. So to me, I get where you're coming from, like, this is based on my model. Whereas a human on the same point as you where it's like, I'm sick to my stomach. Can we find other games to love?

But unfortunately for me, this is probably going to be one of my three biggest bets of the week. I just, I really, really love this chief side and this number. But yeah, like I said, there's other games I love too. So if you don't love that one, we'll find, we can find something else to get in here if you don't love it. Well, look, I don't mind being overruled. I just want to make sure that we're having the full conversation. So the other one I want to talk about and then I want to hear what you have to say,

Chicago at the Raiders, this is a tricky one. because the line had been bouncing back and forth, back and forth all week. It's now Raiders minus one and a half. As recently as yesterday, it was essentially pick, maybe Raiders minus a half. In the contest,

it locked at Raiders plus one and a half. That feels like a lot of value to get in the contest for a game that we've generally liked all week. Yeah, and it's just like the Bears last week. I told you, the Bears line had flipped. The Bears were still a bad line last week. I didn't really care because I'm kind of learning, in here, these contests try to scare you off when these lines do flip like this. And it's like,

try not to overreact to it. This Raiders line, like I said last week or on Sunday, love them because they were a dog. Like you said, our contest now they are still technically a dog. But it's really just about the matchup. Like I just think there's many ways for this, this defense on the Raiders to attack. You know, like Caleb Williams, that's really good when he has no pressure. When he does that pressure, he seems to struggling. Offensively, they've had a really tough. tough go with running the ball, this Raiders team, this is the perfect team in the bears to get right with your run game. They just, they are bad against the run. So I love the matchup.

I love the matchup for this Raiders team. And I hate to do it to my guy, Chad, having ruined against his own team, but I'm ruined against my own team this week. So I feel like it's, it's fair enough to ask him to take this number. And yeah, if you like this more than the chiefs, I got no issue with us getting this thing because it is a better line value. And, you know, it's, it's a good spot for this Raiders team it's two bad teams and the public really believes in one bad team and it's clear

like I'm looking at the splits right now it's all Bears money so it's not it's not the spot you want to be able to the Bears where last week when no one believes in the Bears they're left for dead I think we're starting to learn that's when you want to back this Bears team not when they're coming off a huge win and everyone's

blowing smoke up their ass for a week in this Raiders team with Pete Carroll this is that like I said early in the year there's going to be spots we're going to want to back this Raiders team, this feels like a spot where veteran quarterback, veteran coach, they should bounce back here. And if they lose this game, I mean, it's crazy to sake of September, but your season is officially over Vegas. If you cannot win this game in this, because your division's brutal. Like they have to, you have to beat the Bears at home in this spot. So yeah, give me the Raiders

plus one and a half, Chad. I'm glad you're on board with this one. All right. So to me, it's Chargers plus minus five and a half, bucks plus three and a half, lions minus nine and a half, Raiders plus one and a half. For our fifth, unless there's ones I'm missing, we're debating between Rams minus three and a half. Or chiefs. Chiefs plus two and a half. Who am I missing in a quick 30 seconds? No, that's literally the original five I had in.

Switch the Raiders for the Chiefs. So that was, I put our five in. Thursday after our show. That's what I try to stay true to who we are. And I like you. We're staying with our picks. The only one we're really wavering on is our Chiefs or Raiders.

Chiefs or Raiders. So now it's Chiefs or Rams. And I'll leave it up to you because again, I like both sides. You know, to me, I guess the one I feel more confident about at the end of the day, it would be taking Stafford against Daniel Jones and assuming that the Colts team could falter. Completely agree.

I thought you were going to say you leave it up to me and I was going to say. Yeah, whatever one do you want to go? No, no. I want to leave it up to you. We're taking the Rams minus three and a half. We're in agreement. We both feel more confident about the RAMs. So here are the final five.

In the contest, these are the contest lines. LA Chargers minus five and a half. It is six and a half now. I still like the Chargers at six and a half. If you are listening or watching Chargers, six and a half. in the contest it's five and a half. Bucks plus three and a half,

contest and otherwise. Detroit minus nine and a half, contest and otherwise, Rams minus three and a half, cross the board, contest, Raiders plus one and a half. We're taking advantage

of the contest that we play in. Again, this is a contest, private contest, Simon and I play in, that the Raiders locked at one and a half point underdogs. We're taking it.

All right. That's it, brother. And what you said? where nothing's changed. We're on Houston for Survivor people. I know it's gross. It's risky. It's by far the riskiest pick you can make this week. But like we said, we got to trust the situation. This is a desperate team, divisional game at home against the Tennessee team that has a bunch of problems. I know the coach said he gave up calling offensive plays. Whatever he's doing, I don't know if that's the fix. They just have so many issues. So I know it's gross. But Houston, the 0 and 3 Houston team is our survivor

tick this week. All right. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square on YouTube tonight live at 730 or as soon as the late afternoon games. And to recap all the misery and glory of the day, watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe. Also, download some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe. Leave five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Hey guys, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.

Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your performance. Podcasts. Why are we all so obsessed with romance? On the Radio 831 podcast, join us, Sanjana Basker and Tyler McCall, as we unpack all the trending tropes, fuzzy adaptations, book talk drama, and celebrity love stories with hot takes and sharp guests.

Each episode digs into what these stories reveal about desire, fantasy, identity, and how we love now. Listen to the Radio 831 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHeart Podcasts So I'm Leigham's. This is my best friend Janet. Hey!

And we have been joined at the hips since high school. Absolutely. A redacted amount of years later, we're still joined at the hip. Just a little bit bigger hips. This is a podcast. We're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey. With all the snacks and drinks. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer?

Oh, they had a bogo. Well, then you got them. Listen to soccer moms on the IHeart Radio Abbey. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.