The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL WEEK 5 Bets: Lions-Cardinals, Raiders-Patriots and more

Episode Date: October 11, 2026

Sunday NFL Week 5 approaches as our hosts make their final five against the spread picks for our FREE Sharp or Square $25,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest! Sign up NOW. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter finish up their last best bets and predictions with another long look at a game between the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets, despite warnings of fans to avoid quarterback Geno Smith at all costs. They're also intrigued by Tyler Shough and the New Orleans Saints against Kyler Murray and the Minnesota Vikings. They debate Kirk Cousins and the Las Vegas Raiders visiting Drake Maye and the New England Patriots, plus Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars versus Jalen Hurts and the turbulent Philadelphia Eagles. Plus, our duo hesitates when it comes to underdog Jameis Winston and the New York Giants against the Washington Commanders and quarterback Jayden Daniels, but they feel more confident about C.J. Stroud and the desperate Houston Texans facing the lowly Tennessee Titans. And listeners of the show will already know how they feel about the Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals in a game between Jared Goff and Jacoby Brissett. And be sure to stick around for Monday Night Football analysis on the big game between Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford as the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams clash on the west coast. Dive in NOW for their final and official contest picks, all in one fast-paced episode!  And follow this link to join our SQUAD on Polymarket     See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Ontario only. Please play responsibly. Concerned about your gambling or that of someone close to you? visit connectsonterio.ca. Lisa, tell them about our new show. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Youanu.

We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa DiGulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all.

Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business. Listen on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcast.

The True Crime Comedy Podcasts, all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Each week, I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed them. What? I can talk to you for an hour. You're a generational yapper like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job.

And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. Start listening to Scam Goddess on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your pocket. In February of 2024, celebrated illustrator and children's book author Patra Mathers and her husband Michael mailed letters to dozens of friends and family members to let them know they had died by suicide. Dear honies, this is goodbye. By the time you get this letter, both Petra and I will be dead. Next stop, Wonderland. Why did they do it? And what did it do to the people they left behind?

Listen to death of an artist on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square. We are presented by Polly Market. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise guys pay attention. I'm Chad Millman coming to you from a hotel room in Columbus, Ohio, if it looks a little bit different than usual. I am joined, as always, by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello. I'm in. Chad, how we doing?

Brother, interesting morning. A lot of games, lines move in the whole week. Some in our favor, some not in our favor, mostly in the direction we predicted, may mean some opportunities for value in the contest lines. This is our Sunday morning NFL week five show. We're going to nail down our final five picks for our $25,000 pro book ball pickum contest. It's free. Join it sharper square.

Dot the volume.com. First game up, Simon, Minnesota at New Orleans. This is going to be our closing time. Trade of the week presented by Pile Market. The Saints are trading at 2.5% at 51% at Polly Market right now. We've had a hard time finding reasons

not to back the Saints in this spot all week. It gets at two and a half in the contest. A lot of other places, it's one and a half, two. So I feel like we're getting the best number here still. Yeah, a really fun game with a lot of back and forth, right? Because there are people who are so dogging on this. This is a great match where Minnesota's defense, right? You're going against an offense that, you know, as much you want to get praise as

Shuck, he has been inconsistent this season. So I get why the public and betterers like are coming in heavy on this Vikings team. but I think we've been in agreement in Seoul, you know, these last couple weeks that, as good as the Vikings are, they're just inflated a little bit right now, right? They've had a lot of things break their way. They've had some good luck. And the big one is just offensively.

We just, we haven't seen it with anything with from Kyler that gives us fear on back of the Saints team where that's, that's my main reason here. It just feels like this game will always be close. We'll always have an opportunity with back door. And we've seen with Shuck, I mean, even that last game, he's down 21. It doesn't matter. This kid is still slinging the exact same way as if he was up 10-0.

It's just his personality. type. He's just got a ton of moxie in that kid. So we expect a bounce back just in general from the Saints, right? Got embarrassed in a prime time game. People are down on them. I just think this line holding where it is also is very telling, like this should. In my opinion, it probably been bet up to three. And the fact that professionals have just keep hitting this down from two and a half to one and a half, then back and forth. So yeah, we're just going to take the best available number and hope it holds with this Saints team. They're just not as bad as people think they are right now. And Minnesota just feels

a little overrated. Yeah. 4-0 against a spread. They're playing great. Defensively, they've been unstoppable, but their offense has not been able to do anything. Every game, it feels like they are getting

by the skin of their teeth. We love Tyler White the Shuck. We think he can keep us close in this game. New Orleans Saints are trading, our closing time, trade of the week, presented by Polly Market plus 2.5, 51%.

Okay. Speaking of Polymarket, I need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game, you put some money in. And if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all. Polymarket is simply the best prediction market.

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So download the Polymarket app today. You're sharp when you sign up. That's sharp to get $25 free after you deposit, just $10. All right. Las Vegas Raiders plus three and a half at New England. We want to be on the Raiders here because they've been so good to us and maybe the market isn't really acknowledging how much better this team is and maybe giving the Patriots a little bit too much credit after beating the bills last week. We don't know Ashton Genti's status.

He's been questionable all week, hasn't practiced. This one is starting to scare me a little bit. I feel like we're getting a little bit trappy with the Raiders. We could be, but a lot of things are breaking in their favor, right? The fact that the Patriots are down four cornerbacks is a big deal. The fact that Patriots are one of the worst graded teams against tight ends this season. I know the bills can take advantage of it, but a lot of their teams have. You're talking about an offense that runs their whole offense through tight ends.

So this is definitely a number where the pros are betting the Patriots simply because it looks too easy. There's no real logical reason, honestly, behind. it other than Rehbel is great in this spot right at home as a favorite. I believe him and May combined when they're above a three and a half point favorite, they're like 14 and out against the spread, something insane like that. So I get it, but to me, I think a lot of that has to do with the last year, right? That was all, to me, that's all last year's stats, really. The Patriot was just so dominant last year, Drakeley was so dominant as a favorite.

Is that built into this line here? Because I think we both agree, this should be with the injuries the Patriots have, there should be two and a half three at best. So, yeah, I'm with you. It's scary because they're stuck in some of the hooks, but you look at a lot of these markets and a lot of people I've talked to, it's a lot of Patriots of money.

It's not all Raiders money like you would think it would have been in this matchup. So that's when we could circle back to. Like, it's obviously a game where I thought I'd be at this point, bet way heavier into, but we're both just assuming this is the Kirk Cousins stinker game.

Like that's really the big thing. It's just he's played so well, even that loss of the chiefs he played at such a high level that loss is no way on kirk cousins so that's what people are doing here and i mean you know you're in the northeast we're supposed to get this remnants of this hurricane today so there's a bunch of games they're supposed to be affected by weather this could be one of them which is another reason you don't really want to be backing an outdoor kirk cousins and the elements in this type of scenario so yeah it's it's tough where i thought we would both still love this game i think we both do we're just we're a little hesitant on betting a

four-and-o against the spread team like we think eventually it's going to catch up to him. It could be this week, but I don't know. With all the injuries to the Patriots, this feels like another really good matchup for this Raiders team. Clint Kubiak has been scheming Kirk Cousins so well. And Kirk Cousins from his relationship with Cubiac going back to Minnesota clearly believes and has so much confidence in what Kubiak is play calling for him. He's playing like he's, you know, you like that Kirk Cousins and throwing dimes into triple coverage to Brock Bowers. And I do worry a little bit about Gentile, although Washington has been great.

But yeah, this is one where we're playing a little bit with fire. It's catching a fallen. This is the catching a fallen knife game. Are the Patriots all of a sudden back based on what we saw last week? I don't know. They easily could have lost it. Raiders continue to outperform. So what is going to be the factor that keeps them from outperforming this week?

We're going to have to circle back to that one. New York Giants at Washington, Washington minus three. and a half. I'll be honest. I kind of love the commanders here. I'm surprised this hasn't moved to four. It's three and a half in the contest. It's juiced at a lot of books like it might move to four at some point. I don't know if that's public money coming in because Jaden Daniels is going to play. I don't know if that's professional money. That's starting to slowly move this to four. But the commanders have all of a sudden become a team because Jaden Daniels is playing, that I'm starting to like a lot more.

Another number, though, you've seen it move because of the weather, in my opinion, where this did get up to four and out of five at a lot of books, and then as soon as everyone heard that, you know, it was going to be a game base who was going to rain all day for this matchup. You just saw the number shift, right? It's still the exact thing we talked about, right? It's public reception three-and-one giants. They're just hammering this giant side.

And, you know, maybe the elements help them more because it could be a cam, scottaboo type of game, Yeah, we've talked. I just think matchup-wise is a lot of things defensively favor Washington and offensively. Jane Daniels, we've seen that spark. And, you know, matchup-wise, I just, I don't know if they have guys, especially on the outside that can stop digs or if McLaren plays.

I think that's a great match for him as well. So, yeah, like we said, this was going to be a pros versus Joe's, public's all over the Giants. Pros are all over this commander's team. So I'm like, yeah, I would thought this number would be up to four and a half, five like it was. And if it's still three and a half, I'll still take that value. They're just assume it's going to be a low scoring 17-14 game, right?

That's what the general public and most pros are betting on if they're ticking the Giants, just because, like we said, it's bad weather, divisional game. That's what they're assuming. It just feels like this is the type of game we're watching just absolutely rolls. Houston minus seven and a half at Tennessee. It's actually moved down to seven at a lot of books. It's still at seven and a half in the contest. I did bet it at seven and a half.

I actually was afraid it was starting to move to eight. So that's why I took the seven and a half. I still don't mind it. Like, to me, the Texans are so much more talented. I honestly feel like we're getting a point or two of value, especially with Domech O'Reilly's coming back and deciding that he's called the plays. The problem for this team has not been CJ Straub.

It's been this defense. So if this defense can get tight and CJ can play even close to what he's been playing like, then the Texans have to blow out the Titans in this spot. Yeah, we're betting it, but we know the risk, right? The Texans can actually be frauds. They're a bad team right now. Their defense looks poorly coached. And, you know, in these games, we're just so nice to seeing them being passed all over,

especially in these closing games where they've could have won a bunch of these games and their defense couldn't get stops. That's what the most alarming part of the Texans were. So they were on the same page. If this is close heading to the fourth quarter, yes, we're dead. We get that. But this goes the way we plan, which is, you know, 20 to nothing or 20 to three at halftime and just a total dominance by Texan's defense and they rally around D'Amico Rines.

That's the play we want to be on the spot. We want to be in. Just even going back like this week, I just went back to make sure there was nothing missing. Anything I was missing with Tennessee and Cam Ward, is there something that, you know, he is improving week-to-week and there just isn't. He still has horrible footwork. He still is happy feet. Still not setting.

Still doesn't trust the offense, doesn't trust his offensive line. I mean, like we talked about this, kid, Ronald Tate, he's a whatever it was, a six-seventh pick on him, does not look at all like he should be the sixth or seventh pick. Just looks totally lost. I mean, doesn't block, gives up on route sometimes because he doesn't trust his quarterback right now. So Tennessee is just all bad.

If Texans weren't so bad, we would be so much into betting this number right now. But, yeah, I still believe this is such a rallying spot and rallying number for Texans. And, yeah, not shocking to see that most of the bets, most of the money is coming on Tennessee, right especially when I was up to seven and a half it's just the general public does not trust the texans and i knew that coming into it was just going to be all the pros on the texans and no one else so yeah interesting seeing this line movie like you said it was it was trending towards going to eight now it's gone back down to seven so um i'm still at texans but yeah it's this feels like one of the last legs in rather than it was going to be one of our first five in right now we think we're agreed

on the saints we're agreed on washington waffling on the raiders to tell you Texans on the edge. One of the other games. I don't love it. Detroit minus five and a half at Arizona. It got down to four and a half. It's been back back up again. Maybe this Arizona team is bad,

and I'm just sort of, you know, I'm enamored with how they played against the Chargers. I like that they rallied against the Niners for a cover at the end of the game. but five and a half feels like so much the problem is that both of these defenses are so freaking bad that at one point the cardinals are so far behind are the lions just going to take control of this game on the ground and not give the cardinals a chance for a back door i i i can't get behind the lions but i don't love the cardinals i'm not giving you an answer here

Yeah, I heard from a lot of fans that what's wrong with me because I love all the 4 PM favorites. I love Seattle, I love Denver, and I love Detroit. And I agree. It is truly an ally. It's very strange. Yeah, it is very weird. It's just, once again, though, it's all about the number. And these other teams just feel a little inflated, a little overrated.

Like Detroit, it just feels like the lowest time we've been able to buy them this season, right? Like that, the bill's game, that loss, you can excuse, right? That's Josh on the time. People were viewing him as, you know, the NBA. frontrunner, the best team in football, the bills. That lost to Carolina hits a little differently. People watched that game, especially we talked about. Like that game, I was all over Carolina, and I knew the public was going to absolutely hammer

Detroit. They keep thinking it's the same old Detroit, and that number got up to four and a half by kickoff against Carolina. Like so much money was under Detroit, none of that money has come back on this week. People are just totally mad, pissed off at this Detroit team. It's gone the other way where the Cardinals, you'll hear people making excuses from last week. Oh, they were driving to win the game against the Giants. If they didn't throw that pick six and they had just kind of touchdown, they would have won that game. Yeah, they would have won,

but they wouldn't have covered. I mean, they were never going to cover that game against the Giants. That number just moved way too much. So I still think the Cardinals are a little inflated, a little hyped up. Mormon Harris, is that really a loss? No, I don't think that's going to be that big of a deal to them. If we get burned, it will be by the back door. It's no different than when they play the Jets. We just know the Detroit's defense, 31st, 32nd, basically in every category that's important, but Paris Campbell, not playing this game. That's a big deal where the front is still a strong front. Like they still can get pressure on quarterbacks,

Detroit Lions front. So it's really going to come down and what do you want to pick your poison, buddy? Because I bet basically just as heavy into Seattle, just as heavy into Detroit and just as heavy into Denver. So I can really go in any way you want. I would say, you know, the other two both have hooks. I guess we're not getting the hook here.

At least it's not six or six and a half. It's a bit of a debt. Of those games, it's a bit of a dead number. I can get behind Detroit here. The Hard Rock Bet Casino app is here, Ontario. It's safe, secure, and crystal clear with fast payouts and 24-7 local support. You can play over 3,000 games right here, including Hard Rock Bet Casino exclusives. The Hard Rock Bet Casino app is here, Ontario.

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Oh my God, Lexi. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi You want you. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa Di Giulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references,

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And I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world. We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser. We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how accommodating you are. I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight.

Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Liar. Listen on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I don't really care. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcast. The True Crime Comedy Podcasts, all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debris, Lamorne Morris, and Nicole Byer. Ooh, I scammed them. What?

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goes in their charters all week. So we can take that off the board. And then it can be a good. Have you seen the offensive line though? I know. It's terrible. Right now, they are down Slater and Joe Walter out today.

So they all have four rookies starting on the offensive line. This isn't like some amazing prospect of rookies. There's just guys off the street to fill the guys off the street. Against arguably top three, top five defensive line. With Sean Payton calling the place. Yeah. So that's why I got. I get what you're doing here.

You're simply playing the spot in the number where in past history, this was an auto plan just on Herbert here. But man, this, this, I don't know how you were avoiding Tick in Denver. It's never this easy, but sometimes it really is this easy. All right. All right. We'll put on the list. We just talked about Denver for a second.

To me, I love Seattle. We both love Seattle. Seattle was Chad's choice. But we both were betting it hard at two and a half. half. I even took it at three. It was our Discord grouper of the week. Three and a half in the contest. I just feel like that's too far. And so to me, the other game that we had, we talked a lot about Atlanta. You're bet into Atlanta. I bet into Atlanta. But it's three and a half in the contest. We don't like the number. We talked a little bit about Buffalo at three and a half.

Snoop's not a roller. I hope people know that. We're Snoop. Yeah, he's not going to win you three games in a row, but winning this one game against Atlanta, Snoop only can do that for the Ravens. We saw, he came into a game last year. I think he put up like 40 points in that game. So we've seen Snoop win and steal these games, but yeah, this Atlanta won. It really is about the number.

If this was still two and a half, I think we'd be all over it. But yeah, with the hook, we just don't want to risk it. You just did a very convincing job on Denver for me, Simon. So that, let's put that. Let's say, we're going to have one stupid chalk. bet we lose on this week. I'm, happy for it to be Denver.

Really? You feel that strongly about it? Yeah, just because the Champagne aspect of it. I just... And on the offensive line. Yeah, and that's another big thing where it's like even if the offense doesn't show up in the first half, once again, I don't see how the chargers keep moving the ball where they feel

like the charges have had a ton of luck these last two weeks to even be in those games against the bills against Seattle. Sure, can they find their way once again here again, but they're going to have no lad McCawkey. They're down four-off its alignment. At some point, it has to become too much. No-Dermint James. Yes, no-tone James. And we've just seen Denver have underperformed so much. They've had such a hard schedule. They've played all playoff teams. They've had this ruling

gauntless. This feels like their first easy game, you could say, even though it's not, right? Chargers are a good team overall. But yeah, I just look at this number and just feels like a book got caught here, where if they could, they would have made this six and a half, but now they can't move it, because they know they'll just get counted by the general public if they move this number too much. So that's just one where it's like if I'm going to get burned on a game here, as much I love Seattle, I'd rather be the Chargers and this Denver game because I just, I don't know about you, but I am still scared of this Fort Niners team. They just have played so well where I have no fear of this Chargers team right now.

And it's if we get burned here, it's just because football happened and something stupid obviously happened in this football game. So what if we did Saints plus two and a half in the contest, Washington minus three and a half Houston minus seven and a half Denver minus three and a half and then I think it comes down to Detroit minus five and a half

or Raiders plus three and a half So you're not at all invested in this Green Bay line so Green Bay right now is plus one and a half in the contest It's the stinkiest professional line of the week. Explain that. Like, you do zero research, you do zero work on this one, you just bet Green Bay.

The Bears, to the general public walking on the sports book this morning, getting the crust out of their eyes, every guy in the world is betting the bears right now. And I don't even know if it's Caleb Williams or not. That's also an interesting to party. I don't know if we have to force it if you're a listener of this show, because if it's noon and Caleb gets approved, maybe this runs all the way up to three. Who knows? Maybe that's the part I'm missing with this one,

but I just can't get over that this number is held at plus one and a half on Green Bay, despite all the money pouring in. Anyone's model will tell you that the Bears are a better team right now. Defensively, offensively, I mean, it's just one of the more bizarre lines of the week. The books are literally telling you Green Bay is going to win this game. And I can't get over that because it just feels like Chicago is such a better team in every way right now. And that's what I love about what we do right now because the numbers tell you what you need to know. So yeah, we could get burned here.

But it's another spot where you bet this Bears team nine times out of 10, you're going to lose this bet. It's just a sucker bet. The reason I didn't choose it is because we lost the best of the number on this one. We've had it at two and a half for most of the week. We talked about it on Tuesday. It made no sense to bet Tyson Vagent or the Bears as a two and a half point road favorite. against the Packers team that is reeling, the Packers have the same offensive line issues as the Chargers.

And the line has still moved in their direction. So I agree. It tells you where the professionals are going and what the bookmakers are telling you they need to do here, that we need to do here. I just didn't love not getting the best of the number. If you feel strongly about the Packers, I'd almost rather have the Packers than the Raiders.

There you go. Yeah, I'm happy with it. I just, we're very, we're very, Charlie Chalka, this week, at least, you know, let me feel like an idiot losing on the Saints. Let me feel like an idiot losing on Green Bay. Let me get some ugly, ugly home dogs in this game. So we're doing Saints 2 and a half, Washington 3 and a half, Houston 7 and a half, Denver 3 and a half, Green Bay plus 1 and a half. That's our show, brother. We did it. Man, that is going to be grueling. Absolutely grueling.

Simon and I will return tonight 7.30 p.m. Eastern Live on Sharper Square YouTube's channel with our instant NFL reactions after the late games wrap up. This has been Sharper Square, sponsored by Polymarket, part of the volume podcast network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars.

Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until tonight. Love you. The autumn win is a raider pillaging just for fun He'll knock you round and upside down And laugh when he's conquered and won Lisa, tell them about our new show

We have a new podcast It's called Don't Lie to Me I'm Lexi You Onu We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart And I'm Lisa Di Giulio The Old One, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions

and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business. Listen on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcast. The True Crime Comedy Podcasts, all about robbery, fraud,

and those who practice it. Each week, I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed them. What? I can talk to you for an hour. You're a generational yapper. me. That's why I had to make yapping a job. And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. Start listening to Scam Goddess on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

In February of 2024, celebrated illustrator and children's book author Patra Mathers and her husband Michael mailed letters to dozens of friends and family members to let them know they had died by suicide. Dear honies, this is goodbye. By the time you get this letter, both Petra and I will be dead. Next stop, Wonderland. Why did they do it? And what did it do to the people they left behind? Listen to Death of an Artist on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The new NFL season is here. And you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61.

It is in the name, NFL Daily. You'll have fresh content in your feed every day all season long. That game-winning drive. Maybe it's Herbert. Maybe it's Gino. Maybe it's Mahomes. We'll have the highlights. If Fernando Mendoza or any of the rookies are balling out,

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