The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL Week 9 Bets: Cowboys-Cardinals, Broncos-Texans, Vikings-Lions, Chiefs-Bills and more
Episode Date: November 2, 2025It's officially November! The clocks have fallen back, and kickoff approaches for NFL Week 9! Betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter are here to deliver their final f...ive against the spread contest bets. After all their picks and predictions this week, they deliver their very best bets, including Dak Prescott's Dallas Cowboys against Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals, Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos vs. C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans, and Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills squaring off against Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the Kansas City Chiefs. We also hear about Drake Maye and the New England Patriots vs. Michael Penix and the Atlanta Falcons, Daniel Jones and the red-hot Indianapolis Colts vs. Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Plus, we get a best bet on JJ McCarthy's return to the Minnesota Vikings vs. Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions, and Jaxson Dart and the New York Giants vs. the San Francisco 49ers. All their final and official betting picks, all in one fast-paced episode! #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:04:02 - LA CHARGERS VS TENNESSEE TITANS 0:07:08 - MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS DETROIT LIONS 0:08:50 - DENVER BRONCOS VS HOUSTON TEXANS 0:10:48 - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS BUFFALO BILLS 0:13:40 - CHICAGO BEARS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS 0:16:13 - CAROLINA PANTHERS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS 0:25:25 - ATLANTA FALCONS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 0:28:50 - OFFICIAL NFL WEEK 9 CONTEST PICKS -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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This is an I-Heart podcast.
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Hey, guys, it's us.
The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe.
I'm Kevin.
And I'm Nick.
And guess what?
We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.
We invented a podcast?
Well, we didn't invent it.
We just contributed to it.
We're the first people to do podcasts.
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Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it.
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Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet.
We are part of the volume podcast network.
This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.
I am Chad Milman.
I am joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, my co-host, my compadre, professional better.
Simon Hunter.
Hello, Simon.
Chad, how we doing?
Dude, ready to rock and roll.
Stayed up late to watch some great baseball, not impacted by moving the clocks back at all.
I am ready to roll.
This is the strip down in the room, eavesdropping version of Sharper Square.
You and I are going to try to nail down our five picks now that we know all about the injuries and the latest line moves.
Are you ready, Simon Hunter?
Let's get into it.
These are the games that we had pretty much locked in on the other day.
we feel good about four we're going to have a challenge on the fifth here we go
los angeles chargers minus nine at tennessee reminder our history with the chargers in this spot
is not good meaning when we back them on the road as a favor against a team that we think stinks
but this is not just a bad team it is a bad team that is without calvin ridley at
receiver today is without starting safety zavier woods it is without starting linebacker arden key and
And most importantly, their best player, defensive tackle, Jeffrey Simmons.
The last thing I'll say, because I want to get to your take on this.
When ESPN reported Jeffrey Simmons was not going to be playing,
they listed five players who are going to be trying to fill his role in rotation.
That's not good.
Yeah, and it's a game that I laughed about because I've been getting a lot of shit the books this week.
like last night world series everyone's there even guys i haven't seen in a while came to the book last
night because it's like it's just a night you got to be there and um this was a big one a lot of guys
talking about this game where it's like every pro is taking a position on tennessee and i said to
them this isn't two three years ago this is a totally different league these are key numbers
and i'm not going to lie to you i was a little scared when that number held at eight and a half
for a couple days i couldn't get over that because it's like getting in pay
by professional money and public money.
Luckily, been up all night.
That extra hour killed me.
It was like, what am I supposed to do with this?
Yeah, we got some books popping the 10.
And that's what I needed to see.
I needed to see some books touch the 10
because that lets me know that they're not really
trying to take a position around Tennessee
and that it's not all professional money holding this one up.
So we like the matchup.
I still can't be redone this.
Like this is such a non-bet we never make.
a really, really public road favorite after they had a blowout win in a primetime game.
But it's the trends are nice here.
And it's also a new age like we talk about in football.
So this is just another back-to-back get right spot for this Chargers team
and a great match at them.
Like you said, key guys are out for this Tennessee team on a team that cannot afford to be missing these guys.
So we need this to hold as we are at nine.
I would not take this at 10.
But if you could get it right now at 9, I'd still get it people.
I love that you took the extra hour to keep doing more work and try to figure out how to spend your time.
I took the extra hour to exercise for 50 minutes on the Peloton before the show instead of after the show.
Well, it's, again, you're not up to this late.
It's never not weird.
Every I forget when the time changes.
And it's like, you know, it's 1.30.
I'm working.
All of a sudden I look up and I'm expecting to be two or three.
And it's 115.
Yeah, right.
Like what just happened?
So that's always very weird.
Again, as a man that has not buried,
no one in my left to tell me the clocks are moving back.
It's never good.
You can always call me.
I'll tell you.
Minneapolis, or Minneapolis, Minnesota at Detroit.
Detroit is a nine point favorite.
This was Chad's choice.
This is another one where I'm glad it finally ticked up.
I think some of this is a lot of public money starting to come in on Detroit.
At the end of the day, the reason why I like this,
and I think you like it too, is we believe more in Jared Gough,
and Dan Campbell at home as big favorites,
given their history, plus their running game,
which is the strength of this team,
then we do in J.J. McCarthy on the road in his first game
after nearly two months of being out.
And a Vikings run defense that just frankly has not been very good this year.
Yeah, and this is another bet where I like to lie to myself and say
I wouldn't usually make this, but I would years ago because what you just talked about.
It's Campbell, golf, in a matchup at home against a team that's,
Just struggling right now.
And this is not the answer, right?
JJ, him coming in and burning us because there's no tape on him
and he has this incredible impressive game
because there is a winner in him.
We know he has a guy that knows how to win
and make big plays and big moments,
but this just feels like a horrible,
horrible spot for this kid to step into Rusty walking into this.
And you talked about the Flores defense.
It's not what it was last year, right?
They're not getting these turnovers.
They're not getting pressure on the quarterback.
You said they're running.
run defense is just terrible. Their best thing is
their past defense, but I think we've seen
them against a couple of good passing offences.
That might not be so true. So
it just might be a horrible disaster spot
for them. Like you said, this number, a bunch
of books are already pushing nine and a half.
Hopefully people listen to Chad here. Chad's choice
got a day and a half. It's moving
on up. It could get 10 by kickoff.
Look at us. Two games
down, two huge,
chalky, public favorites of more than a touchdown.
This is, what happened
to us. Denver at Houston, Houston minus two now. This was our brass balls. And I got a lot of
questions about this. How can we make this our brass balls? Look, we're still betting a team
that's under 500 that is a favorite in a game that flipped in which they used to be underdogs
against a first place team. It's moved a little bit, I think, because Nico Collins is going to
be playing and it moved a little bit off of the injury news about Pat Sertain that he won't be playing.
So I like the matchup here.
I like the opportunity.
I like the Texans defense.
I have no fear of betting this at two.
We've been betting at minus one and a half.
Yeah.
And to the nays, be happy.
We must made the Chargers this bet, which I really don't think takes any balls.
I think this takes much more balls and the fact that like Chad said, this is a true test for
Sij.
This is going to be the best defense he's faced.
This is going to be the best offensive line, this Houston's front, this face defensively.
So I think it takes a little bit of balls.
But the big reason we loved it so much too is we kept hammering home.
We thought the line you were getting a good number to proven out.
I mean, a couple of really public books out there are still at the one and a half.
I'd still grab that if you can, but a lot of books I've already hit two and a half this morning.
So you can see the way the professionals are going.
And I think it's another week, the public's going to try to fade this Texas team like last week of the 49ers.
But it's not as extreme.
I think last week we joked.
It was like 80% of the bets on the money.
Yeah.
Was coming in on that 49er side.
This is way more split, right?
There's much more professional money.
The tickets, obviously, is on Denver, but the money is on Houston here.
So, you know, we try to get out the best of the number.
I feel like we did it Sunday night, gave out the plus one and a half.
Early in the week, give out the one and a half and gave it again on Thursday.
So, yeah, it's just a number I would be shocked if it all holds at two and a half.
I could see more buyback from the public this morning.
on this Broncos team, but the direction, like I said, it's going is minus two and a half.
Last one we agree on. Kansas City at Buffalo, Kansas City's minus two right now.
This was Simon says when it was Kansas City minus one and a half.
This one also has bounced around. Like it got as high as two and a half, then got that
down. There's some places where you can still get a one and a half.
I think there's some professional community elements here that.
that really like Buffalo and think that Kansas City has been riding high
and might be a little overvalued because of their wins the past few weeks,
I think you and I just don't trust Buffalo's defense as much as we playing Buffalo's
defense.
And we do very much trust Patrick Mahomes.
Yeah.
And I think a lot of the pros, their position, they've come in on the plus two and a half
with this team.
So you have seen it fluctuated, but it does look like that's where it's starting to
settle a little bit, right?
which I am shocked by.
I thought the pros would keep this at minus one and a half
just because I didn't realize there'd be so much resistance here.
I really thought the bills would be a public plan.
The pros would be on this chiefs team for what I talked about.
Like it's as much as people to say Josh Allen's numbers
are the same as they were the year before,
talk to any real bills fans.
He just doesn't look the same.
He looks a little off.
And the schedule has been much softer this year
than was last year.
And that's including a bad,
loss to the Patriots, which, you know, maybe the Patriots are better than I'm getting credit for,
and then a really bad loss to Atlanta. So I don't know. This would be the type of game that Josh
Allen does show up and put up big numbers. And that's what they're going to need here because I just
look at this matchup for this Chiefs team. I know the Bill's got guys back, but I just don't see
anyone their secondary. It's going to give real problems to this Chiefs passing attack. So yeah, Chad,
I think we have one and a half in the contest. Like you said, it's minus two at Hard Rock.
shop around see if you can still find the one-a-half like I always say two is such a few number
this is going to be a tight one I just can't see either side blowing out either side so
a lot of people ask about teasers you can put this in the teasers but I just if anything I'd tease
the bills up which I don't want to be in this I don't want to be trying to middle of this one
I'm just heavily invested in the chiefs here so to me if you can find the one and a half
obviously grab it all right so those are the four we know we like Chargers lions Texans
Chiefs, how far we've come.
All favorites.
Years ago, we'd be battling to find a favorite that we love just one to put into the
contest.
Now we have four that we love and have totally agreed on.
We're having a hard time agreeing on a lot of other games this week.
There's three that I want to raise right now, including the game that will be our
rock and a hard place, hard rock, bed of the week.
This one will not, but I just want to ask you about it because it all feels fishy to
Chicago is a two and a half point favorite at Cincinnati.
It's been bet down from three.
So the wise guys came in at three.
Trey Henderson, doubtful.
Joe Flacco, questionable.
This line is stinky, stinky, stinky.
Like, I don't get why Chicago isn't being pounded.
And it's kept me from betting the bears at minus two and a half because it makes no sense that knowing
Trey Henderson is not going to be playing and that Joe Flacco is questionable.
and we're getting Jake Browning and nobody on defense.
Why is nobody in the wise guy community betting the Bears?
Because no one trusts the Bears, myself included.
Like I was going to be all over this if there was no Joe Flacco,
but that's a big deal.
The fact that he's going to be back against your very suspect banged up defense.
So, you know, Caleb should have a big game.
He's questionable, though.
Who, Flacco?
Yeah.
He practiced, though.
And like, he practiced, I believe Thursday.
And then they showed him what they needed to see.
so they rested him.
Okay.
I can't stay enough.
He'll, if he needs to, he'll get a shot.
Like, it's, they need him.
Like, and he knows that.
And he wants to play.
So I think they're going to make it work.
Because I early bet the Bears,
and I felt their responsibility
there was going to be no flacko with you.
I think we talked about it on Thursday.
It's usually I saw he practiced.
He looked good, throwing it, like just,
same old Joe.
So I just was like, okay, I'll get out of this position.
And another game,
normally I'd be hammering this bangles team this probably should be closer to a pick
honestly again no disrespect to this bears team but this is a team then when they do win they
on the road especially they win these close games that they really have to grind it out and fight
to get that final possession like you know Vegas game they stole that one Washington commanders
they stole that game it's really interesting to see Caleb develop I know no Swift right
I think Swift's out for this game as well it's right been a bright spot for
team offensively. So I think that's why the pros have come in. But like you said, I'm
happy. This is another game. I'm just happy to avoid if I can. Because Joe Flacco takes the wrong
hit like you're talking about, they'll yank him. He's just, he's playing on already on a bad
shoulder. And on the flip side, I just don't know how much I trust the bears as a two point,
two and a half point favorite on the road, even against a suspect team like the Bengals.
Yeah. Same. That's why I haven't really invested in this game. Carolina plus 13 at Green Bay.
talked about it on Thursday.
Simon, Carolina is going to be our rocking a hard place, hard rock, bed of the week.
Look, Bryce Young is starting.
This line is barely moved.
And I feel like the number is based on a really bad game for Carolina in which Andy
Dalton was playing against Buffalo and a really good 20 minutes for the Green Bay Packers
against the Steelers. From 543 on against the Steelers, the Packers dominated. They outscored them
21 to 6 in the final 20 minutes. So it just feels like too big of a number for a Carolina team
that is getting discounted because of a really, really bad game that could have been an anomaly
for how they had been trending both defensively and with Bryce Young.
Yeah, and I feel like this never prize in fluctuate a lot,
because there are some pros taking positions on Green Bay because they viewed last week as,
okay, this is going to be the green pay, getting healthier now,
getting into form, and just going to start steamrolling teams because they are,
I mean, most people have them graded out as like the third or fourth best team in NFC.
I mean, I'll know a lot of people in the media have them number one because of their record,
but they're still an unproven team.
So that's why it's like, yeah, if we get burned here, it would be,
brutal, but this is an insanely afflated line.
Like I feel like I think you're in agreement here.
This probably should be 10 because this Carolina team got so embarrassed
and the flipside Green Bay had such a dominant win.
It feels like we're getting three points.
I mean, there's 13 and a half stuff out there, people.
So we know the deal here.
We're going to need Bryce Young to put up points, right?
Caroline's defense, Green Bay, if Jordan loves on,
they're going to be able to move the ball.
They just don't have defensive weapons that really get stops.
I guess the team that just has multiple receivers that rotate that are good.
and then Tucker Kraft in that run game.
It's just a really, when Green Bay has got to go,
and we know we're walking into one here,
but I think like we talked about,
this defense that can be passed on.
You know, we've seen even Jacobi Berset
was passing the ball against a Green Bay defense.
Like they have a secondary that can be passed on.
All the weapons are healthy for Carolina passing game rise.
RICO Dow is apparently going to be the number one today,
which I really love for the Carolina.
Like, this guy's earned it.
Huge, I'm a huge Chuba Hubbard fan,
but let's be honest here,
It's just, it's night and day.
We go down.
Every time he touches the ball, it feels like he's getting six or seven yards.
So we should have our number one back,
whether our number one quarterback with all the weapons in Carolina here.
And it's just a big spread.
So we're always going to be even, even when we're down 20 nothing, chat,
I mean you were still going to be believing.
Totally.
We still got this back door opportunity.
So I love the fact this is up to 13, such a key number.
We both agree this is an inflated line.
All right.
So the one thing that scares me the most is I love watching.
Matt LaFleur press conferences, he's kind of a dick. And he gave a great answer. They asked him a question
in the press conference about Halloween. And his answer was, I told my assistant, I don't give a
shit if it's Halloween. I'm trying to win a game. Jesus. That is what's scary when you're
talking about Matt LaFloor. We've bet on that attitude a couple times and it hasn't worked out. So I'm
hoping today, again, it can be another win for us.
with Carolina.
Crazy as the floor is,
he doesn't really lay it on teams.
He tries to keep as many plays as you can't hit in it,
which I love about the floor.
Like if he's up by 10,
they just run it three times.
Like they get it back,
they'll just run it three times.
So like we talked about,
this is just a very, very big number.
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Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what?
We have some big news.
What's the news, new?
Huge news.
We created our own podcast called,
Hey, Jonas.
We invented a podcast?
Well, we didn't invent it.
We just contributed to.
First people to do podcasts.
Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts.
We're starting a trend.
But this one's extra special.
So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys?
I honestly don't remember.
I think it was on a call about what we should call it.
Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band.
Before Jonas Brothers was...
This is how you guys remember it going down?
Yes.
I have a very different memory of this.
We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast.
People could call in and say, hey Jonas, and then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas,
and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.
But thanks for remembering that, guys.
Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite.
Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends.
Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
This week, my guest,
SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform?
We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
This week on Crimless, we're joined by our first ever guest.
Sorry, our first ever human guest.
I don't think I could be in the same room with Shamrock, the past.
I'd be too nervous.
That's right.
The very funny Will Ferrell joins Rory Schovel and me, Josh Dean,
for an episode dedicated to the many crimes committed by people also named Will Ferrell.
They called to his fellow officer for the nippers.
What are the nippers?
Very good question.
No, I was thinking, would that be a good name for like a salad dressing?
Simple assault.
And it's a play on word, salt?
Maybe not.
I say we invest and we see.
There's only one way to know.
This did not amuse the cops.
By the way, normally the cops are amused, but this did not abuse the cops.
Will even comes clean about some of his own crimes.
I didn't get caught. You know why?
If you don't want to be suspected of anything, you whistle as you walk.
Listen to crime lists on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.
Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is.
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it is. Getting a new one put up in its place.
As long as there's a politics of race in America, there's going to be a politics of remembering
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How do you represent that?
They are just fueling a fire that is really catching.
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Last game.
And I feel like this is the one we're going to put in for our fifth.
Atlanta at New England, the line is four and a half,
it's been bet down from five and a half.
I liked Atlanta at five and a half.
You've liked New England.
I just feel like New England is at peak, peak, peak in Atlanta
because of what happened last week is low, low, low.
And they're getting the players back that missed last week
to make it go low, low, low, low.
So tell the people,
what you told me before we went on the air jesus chad i i i basically let chad know um very rare do i get
bullied at the book about chad's picks and me missing it and chad seeing it but that's how professionals
better feel this alanda game and like i said on the show i even think i said on thursday like i know
this is the professional side um there's a ton of games this week like this should be a great week for
for the professionals and the sports books,
but just worried, we're just in a new age here,
and that's my fear here.
Like everything you said is true.
New England's overinflated.
This line should be three, three and a half.
We've seen at times when New England's look bad,
like they did against Pittsburgh and, you know,
turnover bug hits them, they're just not a mature team, right?
Like, Rable came or this is the first year.
They still have many holes that's, you know,
shielded because they have such an easy schedule.
Like they just haven't played tough matchups.
So for this one, a lot of the pros, what they talked about is, I think a little bit what you spoke about is if you're going to attack this Patriots team, sure, they might be good at stopping the run, but they're really susceptible to running backs out of the backfield, which Robinson could be argued as one of the best receiving backs out of the back field.
And they're not good across the middle, right?
They're not great with tight ends and patterns through the middle of the field.
So I think it would be a big pits game as well.
So they do have the pieces on Atlanta to really make this team struggle.
it is five and a half in the contest.
So I've embedded.
I've like, I told you, I took a little position in Atlanta.
I don't know.
The Patriots really had no feel for this game.
But you're confident in it.
The other pros are confident in it.
I'm not going to fight you on it if we put it as our fifth one.
Well, I like it also.
We're getting a little bit of a better number.
I think Green Bay in this game is in the contest is 12.
And a half.
So we like Carolina plus 13 and a half.
We like Atlanta.
At least I do.
I think we're going to put, I know we're going to put, I'm committing us to putting Atlanta into the contest.
So to be clear, our final five are going to be Los Angeles Chargers.
It's nine right now.
We like it at nine.
It's eight and a half in the contest.
No, Chargers are at nine and a half in contest.
It's Chargers minus nine and a half in the contest.
I think we're fine with that.
Yeah, yeah.
I said as long as under 10.
Minus nine and a half.
Kansas City.
We're putting them in the contest.
One and a half in the contest?
Yeah.
Great.
One and a halfs are still out there.
Go get it.
Houston, one and a half in the contest.
I think you can still get some one and a halfs on Houston.
Detroit, eight and a half in the contest.
It's going to be tough to find eight and a halfs.
But we like Detroit at nine as well, which is what you can get in a lot of places right now.
Atlanta is four and a half.
we liked it at five and a half.
We're going to take advantage of that.
We're playing Atlanta, five and a half in the contest.
So those are the final five.
This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight live at 730
after the afternoon games, after Chiefs bills, really,
to recap all the misery and glory of the day.
Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.
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Until tonight, love you.
Hey, let's be careful.
Hey, guys, it's us.
The Jonas Brothers.
I'm Joe.
I'm Kevin.
And I'm Nick.
And guess what?
We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.
We invented a podcast?
Well, we didn't invent it.
We just contributed to it.
We're the first people to do podcasts.
We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being an ass question.
Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick, tired and sick.
Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite.
Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.
Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an acapella band with their between
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Do that.
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Dennis Leary, Gaten Moderato from Stranger Things, Tana Monsu, Camilla Morone, Carrie Kenny Silver, and more.
Listen to these episodes of Dear Chelsea on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
I'm Joey Dardano.
new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with thoughtful
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