The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - Last-minute NFL Week 1 bets for Steelers-Jets, Bengals-Browns, Dolphins-Colts, Raiders-Patriots & more

Episode Date: September 7, 2025

Sunday morning last-minute look at the latest NFL odds and best bets from expert bettor Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter. They lock in their picks and predictions for the big NFL Week 1 matchups: Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets, Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills, and Carolina Panthers vs Jacksonville Jaguars.All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Timeline: 02:00 - Intro 05:18 - Titans-Broncos 07:48 - Bengals-Browns 08:06 - Ravens-Bills 09:18 - Lions-Packers 11:18 - Steelers-Jets  12:10 - Raiders-Patriots 13:52 - 49ers-Seahawks 18:24 - Panthers-JaguarsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.

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Listen to the Radio 831 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Conky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA.

Listen to the 1021 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Nelman. I am joined by my co-s, my BFF, my companion,

my confidre professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, good morning to you, my good friend. Good morning on the first Sunday of the NFL season 2025. We're calling this like the strip down in the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square because this will be doing on Sunday mornings going forward. And as most listeners know, you and I have been doing contests for years, whether or not people were able to play along.

And on that Sunday morning of the NFL season, when we're putting in our final picks, you and I would be having a conversation about what the final five picks should be. And it was just us basically arguing and debating with each other over the final five picks for about 10 or 15 minutes. We decided like before Sunday kickoffs for this season, we're going to let people into the room where it happens so they can get. in real time what we're planning on doing because things change. Like we might want to make picks that are on the right side of massive line moves over the past 48 hours,

injuries, et cetera, stuff changes since Thursday. So now you get to hear all of that convo. Are you ready, Simon? I am and people should know we're going to do our best not to make too many changes right now. People hear what our five are. It's the same five I put in Tuesday. So if we make changes today, we can't help it, people.

We're just like, we're like all of you, right? The Sunday morning panic is real. And I looked at my lineup this morning when I woke up, and it's like, how do you not overthink everything you do, right? So, yeah, I'm loving this new routine we're doing here. I think it's really going to be funny to see how unhinged we are by week seven, eight. So, yeah, right now we're pretty happy. Life is good.

It's going to be interesting how this Sunday show keeps going. throughout the season. Yeah, we're going to be, we're going to be quick. I know people are trying to do a lot of things on Sunday, like. So the idea isn't here deep, the idea here isn't deep dives into every game. It's just quick recap on where we stand and how honestly Saturday and Sunday, I was like, I don't know, making breakfast or something yesterday. And this morning too, when I woke up, I had like a little tingle because I'm like, all right,

I get to check lines. I get to see how things have changed. I get to see if some of the numbers I want have moved to my direction. my direction, have they moved away from me, and am I going to be an idiot and just chase the number anyways because I feel like this is my last best chance. I'm trying to be really focused in discipline. So a couple things to think about. The contests Simon and I play, they lock lines at different times. So we might talk about games where lines have locked on Tuesday or Wednesday. If we're playing that locked line from a Tuesday or Wednesday, we're not going to recommend

you played in a contest that has lines locking today. We'll give you some alternatives. don't don't worry we're not going to leave you in the literature Simon first game like Tennessee at Denver your choice for brass balls you own it I will happily accept the W if it works and joyfully remind you of your mistakes later tonight if it doesn't any regrets hearing anything to change your mind at this point the hard rock bet line on this game is eight I don't know what our contest line is is it seven and a half? Yeah, contest seven and a half.

So it's just like the Cowboys. I love the Cowboys this week. Our contest was six and a half. We didn't play. Like if it was eight and a half in our contest, we would have played Cowboys. It's the same thing here with Tennessee. I like Tennessee,

but why would I be betting so much eight and a half? And now we're playing our most important contest of the year at seven and a half. So we can force it in if we want to. But to me, there's better numbers out there. and if this number lands on eight and we lose this contest, I would lose my mind about that. Because again, people, we're sticklers. We might have know you.

We're talking about how Mean Chat always want the best of the number. We get it, right? The first two games, the spread did not matter. One game this week will matter on the spread. And that, of course, will be the game Mean Chat put in our contest. So we are sticklers about it because we've been burned by the half a point by the point. You know, like Dallas, I really loved it. If it was seven and a half, I think I could have.

forced us to take it, but at six and a half, me and Chad aren't going to take a line that's off by two points just because we love it. So that's what people have to work us here. There's some games that we'll put in sometimes that even if we don't love it, it's the value is too insane to pass on and we're just playing the long-term odds here. So yeah, the Tennessee game, I do love it, Chad. I still love it. It's seven and a half for our contest. I don't know if it's going to be one of our four best picks. Five best picks. We already put chargers in, brother. So we already got up. I didn't even know that.

No? No. All right. Yeah. Great. We already have won nothing, brother. Three. Look at us.

All right. We got, we had the Chargers. What was the final line in the charges? Three and a half or three to half. All right. So we had Chargers three and a half. We're going to have to get better at telegraphing this for our listeners as we go through the season.

I literally said on the show, auto play three and a half Chargers contest line. So I give what you're saying. But yeah, I just. I don't want to put anything on social media. If you want our, if you want our contest plays, this is where you're going to have to find it. That's fair. That's fair.

All right. Cincinnati, Cleveland, still love it. The hard rock bet line is five and a half. It's five. The contest line is five and a half. Book it. Locked in.

So, like, again, one of the five plays I put in on Tuesday, Cleveland plus five and a half, so we'll keep it in there. Baltimore at Buffalo. The hard wreck bet line is Baltimore minus one. Full disclosure, I played at minus one. We talked about it on the show.

It was our rock and a hard place, hard rock better the week, Baltimore at minus one. We don't love playing games where the line is flipped from Baltimore as an underdog through Baltimore as a favorite. Those are scary, sticky spots to play. But in the contest lines we play, it's a plus one and a half. We're locking it in. Yeah. And people listen to the show, I'd bet up the minus two. If you're out there and you can still get the minus one and a half,

I'd still take this on the Ravens live betting. And, you know, this is a game that both teams have injuries to different positions. And obviously at the end of the day, the biggest weakness to me in this matchup is the bill's secondary. So I do think we have a huge advantage with this Ravens passing offense. And we meet you at talking nauseam. This is regular season, Lamar. This is exactly where we want to back on this exact spot.

So, yeah, what I have loved to have him as a dog. Yes, that would have been really nice to give it out. morning as a dog once again but the line has flipped i'm telling you i'd still bet up to minus two and me and chat we're taking it plus one and a half in the contest Detroit at green bay look this is my chat loves love when it was at two and a half it's now one and a half at hard rock bet it's one and a half in the contest i feel like we got a pass on this one the the value has moved away from us I was sort of holding out hoping it would get to three. Like I said, I'm trying to be super thoughtful this year

and not just auto play a bet because my spidey senses are saying, this is the right side or there's too much value. So I don't want to force this in at all. We're not getting the best of the number. Two and a half is the right value. Two and a half has become a key number. The market has recognized that maybe there was some inflation

on the Packers, not a play for me. Okay. Yeah. So this is another game that this is one of the five I put in for us on Tuesday. And my view of it was we got to put one super chalky public play. Right now that could be the Ravens. So we don't have to force in the lines. Like you said, we do love the lines. But yeah, it's not the best number. And it is by far the biggest public dog of the week. I mean, it is everyone I talk to. It's all Detroit money for what me and chat, I believe is a good reason. So okay, we don't have to force that one. There are some other lines we can put it instead of that once. I'll switch it out. So right now, just to recap, we've got chargers at three and a half. We're already covered that one. We're putting in Cleveland five and a half. We're putting in Baltimore plus one and a half. We like Baltimore up to minus two. So if you're in a contest and you're getting Baltimore minus one, have no fear.

Play it. We're passing on Detroit at plus one and a half because we like the value at two and a half. I'll own that if it works out and we end up losing a game that we put in because we took Detroit out. I'm going to eat it. No problem. All right. Then we got a bunch of games to debate here. So we got three in right now.

Pittsburgh and New York Jets. This line has been sort of hanging around three all weekend. But this morning it's been moving in the Jets direction. It's at two and a half. It's two and a half at Hard Rock Bed. It's two and a half in the contest. I don't know, brother. This one coming off the three scares me.

a little bit. Yeah, and it's, it's definitely a pros versus jazz where the pros are lining up on the Jets team and the public, they keep coming in heavy on this Pittsburgh side. And for me, looking at this matchup, a lot of things I do love about the Jets and I love this number, but Chad's right. We love it at three. We were hoping for three and a half in contest. We're sitting here Sunday morning.

It's two and a half. You'll see, I don't, I didn't even have this one in on Tuesday. I love this game, but there's just other games I love more this week. Las Vegas at New England, Las Vegas is two and a half right now. It touched the three. It just kissed the three. Little tiny peck. Now is it two and a half everywhere, including hard rock bet?

It's like they're really making it hard on us right now. The Jets are two and a half. The Raiders at two and a half. I played both of these games at three. I probably feel better putting the Raiders in at two and a half then the Jets at two and a half. Do you have an opinion on that? Yeah, once again, I love the Raiders.

There's just other games I love more. So it's another game. I didn't put it in for us on Tuesday. In my view of it was a little bit the same thing, right? I didn't know that Christian Gonzalez was out yet. So I could be tucked into it, right? He's Christian Gonzalez is out, which is arguably their best defensive player. You know, the kid they drafted.

You know, he's got a tall task today. I think, was it Will Howard? I forgot the name, Will Campbell, has a big, asked today. He's a rookie asked the draft. They drafted as to block Max Crosby. To me, we have advantages that we can attack and exploit here

with this Raiders team and this is a good matcher for them in many ways. But at the end of the day, I'm trying to stay true to it, Chad, where it's, I love the Raiders season long and I'm worried I'm being a little too blind to it where I'm so heavily invested in this game and there's just so much I like about this team compared to this

New England team. And yeah, I'm like, I already know I'm going to kick myself. if I don't take this one and they cover. But like I said, there's other games I like more. I just did not put this one in first Tuesday. So do you want to be the breaker? And this is the game you want to force in. I'm not going to stop you.

But I think there's other games we're going to go through the list here that you might like better. Well, the last one I want to bring up. I know we got three in so far. We need two more. San Francisco at Seattle. Seattle is plus two and a half in the contest, plus one right now at most books, including Hard Rock Bet.

I feel like you're going to tell me you love this game and that you, have done all the research and now with questions about McCaffrey. And like you talked about on Thursday, Kuback's ability to create a rush scheme that takes advantage of the outside lanes where the Niners don't have the same personnel that they used to and that could be a spot. And you like the Seahawks defense. I feel like you were going to tell me we got to play the number here because the value is so huge on Seattle.

It is. And it really does come down the McCaffrey injury, right? And I think I was very confident coming to this week about the Seahawks team, loving the matchup. And I mean, I could not walk through a sportsbook without a pro come out to me and asking me with my Rito's on this game and how much they love it. And if they're ever thinking, and I'd agree with them. What we just talked about, right? I love the Seahawks defense. I think they're going to match up really well against this 49ers team.

And then the secondary of the 49ers, right, like you just talked about, they've lost really key pieces. And for agency to injury to the years, right? Now they have a really young secondary that are going to be tested by this run block. scheme. Are these corners going to step up and tackle? Are there safety going to play downhill and make the right place? So a lot of questions to me about this 49ers defense where Seattle, I know exactly the defensive scheme I'm going to get. And now if there's no McCaffrey and their main focus would be shutting just down parity, I mean, come on. That is such a huge matchup and such a big deal for the Seahawks defense. So yeah, you nailed it. It's really about the number plus two and a half.

We love it. You know, most books out there, I think the best you can get now is plus one and a half. If you miss the C-Ox, you didn't take it when we talked about it on Thursday. Just be patient, right? McCaffrey gets cleared. Easily will bump back up a point. This will go right back to two and a half. Still could see the four-niners winning, but the key number, like we talk about two and a half, this feels like divisional game, close and grueling, home divisional dog, week one.

Yeah, I can't avoid it. I know we already have one in there with Cleveland, but this is another one. I just, I love this matchup and this number for this team in this exact spot. We are crazy. excited to announce our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. I don't know if you know this. I've got a very long history of staying at Hard Rock hotels and casinos, including one football season, practically living there, literally.

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Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800-gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. All right, what are we missing? So I'm going to throw it out there. And you give me your opinion on because we didn't talk much about this game. This is strictly based off contest, playing line value. The Jaguars right now are up to four and a half.

I believe Hard Rock has him at four in Jersey here. Contest, Chad, minus two and a half, the Jaguars. So that is very tempting. We don't love them. We have a lot of questions, but we both agreed. Much better offense, much better defense than the Panthers. And, you know, it's a lot to take in. But at two and a half, we're getting two points of value in week one.

That's a lot. So it's a game that we didn't talk much about, but it's minus two and a half right now jaguar is at home and the line live is at minus four and a half so um you don't have the same thing now we'll let that simmer just for a minute i don't want to react one way the other i've been i'm not going to lie to you that game's been on my mind and i feel like i just never like blind i i don't want to be panther blind right and like that's been a failing of ours we we over indexed on the panthers last year it didn't work out for us in the first half,

and then it crushed for us in the second half. So I don't want to think, okay, Bryce Young, he can fix everything when he's got no receivers and their defenses and shambles. I don't want to over-index on thinking, okay, Liam Cohen is going to fix everything, because like you said on Thursday, everyone says, Trevor Lawrence was 8 and 3

until they got injured in the last two years have been terrible. We get it. Two and a half is sneaky, hard to avoid. and we do like having a favorite in there that is not just like a Baltimore minus one, right? Sort of a relatively chalky home favorite, which is what the Jags are turning into with some line value. Okay, I like it.

So that's what's tough because I know pros who love, like they've been bent in the Jags at 3. They've been bent the Jags at minus 3 and a half. They're even taking the minus 4. And that's why you're seeing the 4 and a half pop now just because the pros, I think they're with Chad. Coming to the year, they just love the idea of the upgrade of the head coach position and Liam Cohen.

And, you know, now we're in a spot here that mean Chad might be actually taking the Jaguars in our contest because the line value is just too good to pass up. And like Chad said, we need a favorite. That's our Achilles heel people if you're near the show. Me and Chad only pick dogs. And we're sitting here right now. We don't have a single favorite pick. That would be our first favorite pick. The only other game that jumped out to me, a game we talked all week.

Just want to know where your head's at Miami. Plus one and a half, Chad. This is your baby. You love it still. Are you getting cold feet? It's another spot that it's super public. It's super chalky. But I told Chad, I can scrimmed my eyes and I see it.

I see exactly what he's saying in this matchup that it's Miami, two indoors against a really bad secondary. Everybody's healthy. This is not a banged-up Miami team. So it's tough. It's tough. I see exactly what you're saying. But, yeah, it's that's a interesting line. I want it.

I, I, I, I'm so glad you're listing it. I actually had it on the list, and then I just didn't want to bring it up again because I felt like you were going to laugh at me. So yes, please. So you want them over the Jags? I almost want the Jags over the Seahawks.

Like you love the Seahawks, right? Okay. Well, who do you like better between the Jags and the Seahawks? In real world life, I am way more heavily bet into the Seahawks. I never got the good number on the Jaguars. I was late to the party. I just, I don't know what I want to do with that game.

And by the time it already crossed the three, I had no money bet on it. So if you're asking which one, I actually have real sweat and money invested, it's Calks and I haven't close. But again, for contest, I don't care about that. Like, I'm just trying to win a million dollars with you. So, like, yeah, I'm cool either way. But, yeah, to me, if I'm going line value, yeah, there's no doubt. It's the Jaguars.

Yeah. I think it's the Jacks. So last one out is going to be Seattle. And we'll review this later tonight and see how miserable we are. So you want it to be our family, Miami, Cleveland, Ravens. And we're switching out Seattle, putting the Jaguars. Yes. Okay.

And no Tennessee because of the plus seven and a half. Yeah. And no Jets and Raiders because it's plus two and a half, not three. Okay. So the final, remember we had the chargers, so we're already one and no. The final four for today, Cleveland plus five and a half. Baltimore, we like him at minus one. It's plus one and a half in our contest.

The dolphins plus one and a half. It's about plus one and a half at most books, no difference. Jags minus two and a half. It's been bet up to four and a half at a lot of books. So minus four at Hard Rock Bet. So those are the picks. As of right now, that's what we're going to put in. That's what we will be rooting for today.

I'm feeling pretty good, Simon. Yeah. And people listening, put your five picks in the YouTube comments. Let us see who you guys are taking for your contest. And, you know, obviously, before our. our show Sunday night. I'll post the exact games we did take and prove to everyone, all the doubters

that we actually took these teams in the contest before we do our Sunday night show. And hopefully we do the show coming in 4-0, brother. So yeah, I'm pretty excited for today and the games ahead. All right, this has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square on YouTube tonight,

live at 7.30 to recap. All the misery and glory of the day. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. like the video, subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Most importantly, do all these things because feedback is always a gift. And it helps make the show easier to find for everyone.

Until tonight. Love you. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what?

We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mike. Day and head writer Streeter Seidel

help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The story I've told myself

can then shape my behavior, and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, Tune into the podcast Deeply Well with Debbie Brown if you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole. This podcast is for you to hear more.

Listen to Deeply Well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Why are we all so obsessed with romance? On the Radio 831 podcast, join us Sanjana Basker and Tyler McCall as we unpack all the trending tropes,

fuzzy adaptations, book talk drama, and celebrity love stories with hot takes and sharp guests. Each episode digs into what these stories reveal about desire, fantasy, identity, and how we love now. Listen to the Radio 831 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.