The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL Conference Championship Sunday Bets: Patriots-Broncos, Rams-Seahawks

Episode Date: January 21, 2026

Only four teams remain as the 2026 NFL Playoffs march towards Conference Championship Sunday. Betting expert Chad Millman is joined by professional sports gambler Simon Hunter to discuss every game for this penultimate weekend of NFL betting action. Together the duo provide initial betting picks and predictions for the Wild Card games, covering both spreads and totals as their free SHARP OR SQUARE PRO FOOTBALL PICK 'EM CONTEST continues throughout the playoffs at https://sharporsquare.thevolume.com/ First off, Chad reports on his time at the College Football Playoff National Championship game between his Indiana Hoosiers and the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium, as Indiana captures its first football national title in thrilling fashion behind MVP Fernando Mendoza and coach Curt Cignetti. Moving to the NFL, today's betting coverage starts with their producer joining the show to comment on the firing of Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott and promotion of general manager Brandon Beane.  On Sunday, gambling action starts with the AFC Championship between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos. With quarterback Bo Nix lost to a broken ankle, Denver turns to backup Jarrett Stidham as home underdogs. He will square off with MVP candidate Drake Maye, who looks to keep the Patriots' incredible playoff run alive for coach Mike Vrabel. On Sunday night, the NFC Championship game is a thriller between division foes. The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks face each other for a third time this season, as quarterback Matthew Stafford led the Rams past the Chicago Bears last weekend in overtime. Is Sam Darnold ready to take the Seahawks to the promised land of a west coast Super Bowl? Chad and Simon have strong opinions. #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:04:00 - INDIANA HOOSIERS VS. MIAMI HURRICANES RECAP 0:20:40 - BUFFALO BILLS FIRE SEAN MCDERMOTT 0:22:10 - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. DENVER BRONCOS 0:40:00 - LOS ANGELES RAMS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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This is the show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Norman. I am joined as always by my BFF, my co-host, my companion, my comadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, my man, you survived the hard rock. Let's hear all about it.

Dude. There's so much emotion flooding, so many memories to unpack. This is what's beautiful about sports. So many things are beautiful about sports. It's why we do this. It's why we love it. Like you, me, Mitch, like, we are very passionate fans at heart of the teams that we move for.

And a lot of people who we are connected within our universe are aware of how passionate we are about sports and the teams that we root for. Between the end of the game last night and when I woke up this morning, I had more than 200 texts from people congratulating me on indeed. winning the national title. And I just think that's amazing that, like, there's so many people who understand, like, the connection that we all have to sports,

that they would see Indiana winning and know how much I love Indiana and be texting me about it. I didn't have that many people reach out when I had kids, right? Like, that is astonishing to me. Yesterday was so freaking glorious. And again, sort of, in the theme of sports, let me sort of put some stuff in context for you here.

So I had mentioned on the show that, you know, I had gone to Atlanta with my buddy Matt. We've been best friends in second grade, right? Me, Matt, and our buddy Andy, we've all been grown up together. We went to grammar school together, middle school together, high school together. We all went to IU. Matt and Andy went to the Big Ten title game. me and Matt went to the game in Atlanta. And then Andy met us in Miami for the championship game, along with Matt's wife and my wife

was here. So on Monday morning, me and Matt and our wives are sitting together at breakfast. And Matt and I both started dating our wives in college. And Matt and I were in college together. We met these women. We met our wives studying abroad. They are very close friends. we have had family vacations with all of our kids who are all in the same age range, seven straight spring breaks, because they're in California, we're in Connecticut.

The spring breaks lined up. We are very, very close. There's no distance between us as families, right? At one point yesterday morning, and again, we'd watched the Bears game together. We were so antsy about that. But like the Bears, we sort of, we loved and they gave us a great ride, but we didn't have expectations. And in the morning at breakfast, it's about new, let's say it's lunch. Lisa's mom passed away recently.

My wife's dad passed away in the past couple years. And they start having this very intense conversation about grief and how they're trying to process it, but still take care of the parent who was still alive. And in the middle of that, I look at Matt and I'm like, what do you? think he goes we're fucked we completely disconnected from this very deep conversation because i said he said we're fucked i go we're not and what he was talking about was the karma the bears had lost the night before he thought the karma of our fandom was going to be connected to the bears losing and now indiana was going to lose we had a good 15 minute conversation about is the karma connected to us or is the

karma connected to the teams. And the way it finally came down, I broke it down this way. The Bears, they had great karma this year, but they were not a team of destiny. Their loss is not connected to our fandom in Indiana's success or failure because Indiana is better than karma. They can outrun karma. They are not about this small school that didn't do well, that doesn't have a football history. Chris Signetti put all that aside. He said this whole narrative is rat poison. They are about the six seconds that matter in the play. And then what happens next?

And those plays are not connected to each other. We went through this whole thing. Our wives are having this very intense conversation. This was our entire focus. We had completely transitioned to putting ourselves in the mental mindset to be at that game, to be fully committed to that game. 13 hours later, we're in the car leaving the stadium. And I just go, Matt, he goes, yeah.

I go, Matt, he goes, you're right. The karma was not connected. I feel like anyone who is a sports fan, tell me you can feel that. Tell me you understand that. Because like my whole day was about peak sports fandom. It was just freaking glorious. Yeah, I think all that stuff can matter to you. But, you know, it doesn't really matter.

When people praise God the end of a football game, And was God really reasoned they won that football game? But I think at the end of the day... If Kurt Signetti is God, then yes. Yes, he was. You saw in that game the difference, the right coach, what the right quarterback can make. Like I always say, and that call on what was a fourth and two,

or maybe it was fourth and five. Fourth and five. By, you know, it's like that, even if you said it was a read, it was either going to be a sneak or like a quick pass. And I think he broke it down where the defense was basically split. and he had to make a quick decision, you know, that was, we're playing to win. I'm not kicking the three here.

Either we get burned here, we get stopped, or we're going for a touchdown. And, you know, Signetti talk all the time about how important coaching is. Like, I just, I can't believe it, you know, I'm going to bask in it. I know you said, well, you already turned down Penn State. There's no way he's going to NFL. I just can't get over how good of a coach he is and how there are nine opening jobs right now, one of which could easily be filled by him. But, you know, if I'm an Indiana fan, you know,

it's going to be tough to replace quarterback, obviously. But if he stays, it feels like this is just the beginning, which is just crazy to think you guys becoming a powerhouse in college football. But to go 16 and 0, to do that, something we've never seen before. And, you know, in that game, wasn't their best game, right? There's a lot of things they did stop, sloppily. But all three aspects, right? The defense showed up in the first half.

the special team showed up in the second half. And at the end of the game, when you needed the drive, you needed the touchdown. You know, it's crazy. I still can't believe it, Chad.

I'm honestly, just like you, I'm still in shock that the Indiana Hoosiers are the first 16-0 team in college football history and won the national title. So, yeah, congrats to you, buddy.

And I'm just happy you went down there because it's, you know, it's as a fan that has been to a Super Bowl that his team lost and I've never gone back. It's a huge risk, buddy.

I'm not going to lie to you. That, that walk out of the stadium isn't just a 20-minute walk to your car. It's a five-month walk through your life. So I was so happy they won because the whole time I was thinking, oh my God, poor Chad. Miami has the ball. They're driving.

It's on six points. They're going to get the touchdown here to win this game. And like I said, the coaching matters. He took a random timeout, let the defense reset, led Beck in his head, say, hey, I'm going to take a deep shot here. I'm going to beat these guys in that timeout. and threw a horrible pass in a double coverage. And, yeah, just, again, I can't get over how great of a coaching mastermind it was.

And, you know, Fernando Mendoza, your, your, your, your, your, your, your QB finally dropped an F word. I was just so happy. I was so happy to hear him drop that F bomb at the podium. It's just, I'm excited for him. And again, it's going to be highly debated. We'll talk about in the draft. But in that moment, it's like, man, talk about being on top of the world, being your hometown team. Oh, my God.

They rejected you. Life, full circle. It was a beautiful moment. Listen, it's so funny that you mentioned that walk, right? Because we were sitting in that game. Oh, God, we were sitting in that game. And, you know, the Hoosiers had, first, we thought it was a first down with just after the two-minute timeout. And then they made it a second one.

And then we were even happier because we're like, okay, second and one. Like, they get the first down. And we're in great position. Miami has to start using all this timeouts. They'll get the ball back with 16 seconds left and we'll probably kick a field goal and be up six, right? And then that false start happens. And we immediately looked at each other and we're like, we just lost the national championship. Because everyone could see how it was going to play out.

They were going to end up having like 102 seconds. And that's plenty of time in college football if you're getting first downs. So yeah, we were starting to envision that walk back. But like you talk about investing in teams and going to the games and taking that risk, you know, we spend so much time rooting for these teams and like loving these teams and loving, investing our time and our energy in these teams. And like every season ends in disappointment for every fan except for one team. And I felt that 24 hours earlier with the Bears.

And like, you know, as we mentioned last episode, as Matt Mitchell reminded us, it's only through suffering that we feel most alive. But to. Again, the biggest losers. This would be the Cardinals winning a single two years from now. The biggest joke loser franchise just totally getting the head coach and turn it around. I'm in shock. I can't get over it. It is true.

Listen, I called my younger son. after the game, leaving the stadium, and was so caught up in my feelings. I just told him, like, I cannot wait for him to have this kind of experience. I don't know when it's going to happen. I don't know what's going to happen when he's in college. I don't know what's going to happen when he's out of college. I don't know what's going to happen when he's in his 50s like me. I want it for him so bad.

I want him to feel this in person. It is such a freaking high. Like, I haven't even felt like a functioning human being for the past two weeks between getting organized to go to Atlanta, going to Atlanta. that unbelievable experience and then turning around and deciding we're going to Miami without even having tickets yet

and then Hard Rock coming through for us which by the way in all seriousness like they crushed it I was in Florida I downloaded the app and was online in the app in 30 seconds like this was a

no joke unbelievably good product and then I did go to the casino yesterday a lot of people probably saw the video that I posted it was bonkers it was like being in Vegas It was glorious inside the casino and the sports book was rocking. Before we move on, are you, are you, is there a parade?

Is that how they do it for the Hoosiers? It's a good question. I don't know. I can't go to the parade something. I've got to get back to life. And by the way, Kirkwood in Bloomington last night was literally on fire. Like what, you know, my buddy Matt. Did he grease the poles?

I didn't see them grease in polls, but my buddy Matt, his kid is a sophomore in Indiana. Oh, no. He was just sending videos to us while we were in the car driving back. like of all the video like the craziness that was happening at these bars it was people were camping out like the bars that I used to go to in college people had started camping out the night before to get in and those are in college because they're probably like 30 40 year olds dude they were charging $3,000 for a table to watch the championship game at some of the bars of Bloomington last night now you guys have a huge alum line man it's it is wild final thing I'll say

there is just an argument that Indiana just had the greatest college football season of all As you mentioned, first team that's 16-0 since 1894. Second best point differential of all time had the Heisman winner. Top five defense, top five offense, beat Iowa on the road, beat Oregon on the road, beat Penn State on the road, beat the number one ranked defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game. As you pointed out, the only team so far in the playoff era to win coming off the buy, which shows you how good their coaching is,

and they dominated Alabama, Oregon, and then beat Miami in Miami. And I would say it felt like a home game for the Hoosiers, like easily 65% of the stadium was Indiana. Like you could see the line. Miami maybe had from the 50 to like the back of one end zone. Indiana had from the back of that end zone all the way around to the other 50.

It was remarkable how many, Indiana fans were just just glorious my man glorious uh meanwhile just being slapped back to reality simon yeah one and four in the contest again last week this is our first one and four back-to-back weeks in our history uh bad beats bad calls mixed together bad calls by us by the way not refs did i'm no sean mcderman i'm not complaining about the refs uh by bad beats and bad calls did us in loss was Seattle, San Francisco, under 45 and a half, New England, Houston, under 40 and a half, San Francisco plus 7 and a half, the Rams minus 4.5, one with New England minus 3 and a half. In our nine-week hard rock bet contest, we are now 53 and 47.

With two weeks left, let's look at the leaderboard in our Sherper Square Pro Football Pickham contest. Four entries are now tied at the top of 25 wins. the entry named Ropamow sits on top. Matt Mitchell looked up their tiebreaker differentials. The top two entries are separated by under 100 yards. So it's going to be a dog fight to the finish folks. Good luck. This is our Tuesday conference championship round show.

We're done with Chad's Choice for the season. We're basically done with our named bets. But Simon, you do have a. Simon says, so we'll get to that. We have a brass ball. We'll have our normal Tuesday, Thursday shows through the end of the season. We'll do our normal Sunday pre-kickoff. We will do our Sunday night show after Ram Seahawks. These will be our final Sunday episodes. As always, we do not do Sunday episodes on Super Bowl Sunday. We'll have the four regular episodes over those two weeks. Okay. Final order of business. You know, this week's slate includes sides and

totals for the conference championship games. If you are in love with these games, as we teased, we've also added player props one per team, all hands selected by Matt Mitchell. We'll mention each one as we get into the show. And of course, we can't start without a word from our friend, Matt Mitchell, about the Buffalo Bills doing the right thing in firing Sean McDermott. Matt, what do you got to say here? I am surprised at how universally negative the reaction has been mostly from Bill's fans because of the ascension of GM Brandon Bean to basically president of football operations in a move reminiscent of Tom Donahoe's disastrous tenure as president 25 years ago. I shouldn't be surprised because only a loser fan base like ours could see a bad thing happen and a really good

thing happen and think that no good things have happened. They don't seem to remember Sean McDermott running among a million other mistakes. A fake punt with Zamar Hamlin with the season on the line. I would have thrown him over Niagara Falls with my own hands after that play, and he still got to coach and kind of rehabbed his image a lot this year with a pretty lousy roster. But I am not a disciple of the cult of very good. The bills are very good. They've been very good for six years. I am happy to slide back into the depths to spin the wheel and perhaps become a championship team. The fact that the players liked them a lot, I couldn't imagine something I care less about than the players liking the coach if it's a non-champions coach. Like the Eagles seem to absolutely hate their coach's guts.

And he's made it to two Super Bowls and he's won one. We have teams like the Patriots win Super Bowls, totally bottom out, hire a coach, fire. or coach get a whole new quarterback and have already exceeded our own success in the time it's taken us to try to get to a Super Bowl. So like it feels ludicrous to be too upset about this. And the last thing I'll say is I'm seeing some of the Bill's Mafia leadership selling a mug that says Buffalo versus the refs, maybe one of the biggest loser pieces of- Such a loser thing to do. Everyone listening to this. If you see me drinking out of that mug, it's because if you

It contains the elixir that will end my life. That's the only excuse for drinking out of something like that if you're a Buffalo Bills fan. Guys, we got it. We got to get our heads right and start worrying about things that matter like one championship before we all die. Thank you, Chad. Thank you, Matt. From the high to the low.

Let's get into it. New England at Denver. This game at Hard Rock Bet. I looked it up this morning on the Hard Rock Bed app. Denver plus five and a half. The total is 42. Look, obviously the story here is Jared Stidham starting for Bo Nix. Line hasn't really budged since Sunday night.

There's actually one five out there. And there's a couple of totals at 41.5. Simon, I want to ask you, like, I thought if Bo Nix was starting this line, one and a half or two, you know, a seven point swing? What do you think? Simon says, give me the Denver Broncos. I want to play a game. Simon says.

I might be putting my life savings on this Broncos team with this number, Chad. This is how egregious this line movement is. Wow. Yeah, it's too much, way too much. As much respect as I'm giving to Bo Nix, I do think he is a reason they are where they're at. He's played great this year. But I had them at a minus three and a half point favorite of Broncos,

over knowing them. We even with their injuries to the wide receiver position. you're telling me Bo Nix is worth eight, nine points. It's not, it's impossible. This is just simply public,

overreacting, investing way too much money into just a horrible number. And, you know, right away when I saw this matchup, it's like, okay,

we'll see, you know, can I just be patient? Because I didn't want to say anything Sunday night. I knew right away, I'm going to be hammered this one. I remember you had something

about Stimman, like I was messing with you, but it was really like, okay, can this get the sixth? And we just, literally, I was going to put an obscene amount of money on this if it ever got the six. So I still might.

I'm just grabbing the five at a half now because there's no way that professionals don't come in and just hammer this line. Yeah, I mean, we've seen it start to go down. Me and Chad talked a little bit about it. Much praise I gave Drake May, ready, through three touchdowns. It was impressive.

Their offense could not do anything against that Houston defense. Now, do I think Denver's defense is as good as Houston? No, I do not. I do think they can get after a quarterback and what have we seen so far early in Drake May's career here, Chad against good defenses? Seems like he struggles to protect the ball.

And let's just run through it. Again, it's going to be a non-biased stat. Two games, Drake May. He's taking 10 sacks. Ten sacks. Again, that's... And many fumbles. Yeah, that's good defenses.

He's fumbled six times, Chad. Not just many fumbles, six fumbles. And he's throwing two picks. Like, he's just, he struggled to exactly what we thought he would struggle, right against good defenses. My whole view of that was just, you know, last week I thought that was a really tough spot for Houston to walk into. I had no idea CJ doesn't have a tip of a meltdown,

but that's what really saved Drake May, right? New England fans, they should be happy, right? Their quarterback, this new toy, he did throw those three touchdowns. Despite all those bad turnovers and how sloppy he played, he showed up in their red zone. So I get why they're so excited. The public, though, to come in with the Patriots fans on this one and overreact totally to that game.

And I mean, they've left the Broncos for dead. Totally left her for dead. Just the media's talking about it. And it's another play where we don't have to take the Broncos money. I am obviously going to bet it. It's the move here is simply taking the Broncos at 13 to 1 for the Super Bowl. That's where they're at in a lot of books. Like, again, they're deader than dead.

They're 13 to 1 in the life they would have won two games. You will never see these odds again ever in the rest of your life because this is so unique. We've never had a conference change. make you a team. I think they've been a three point dog before. Over three points, never in my lifetime. And I looked, Evan Amos said it's never happened before. So this is totally unique.

And, you know, I'm about to hit people over the head with thousands of stats because that's, you know, I want stuff to back it up here. But just strictly being a better here, people, you have to understand. This is a bet you need to blindly make always. Like when you see this type of number with a backup quarterback, yes, if this was a backup quarterback who was their first year in the NFL. I wouldn't be as confident about this. We talked about it. He's played games, right? I know he's one in three

his career, but he's played in games. He's faced NFL competition. Now I know this is his first playoff start, which is an ideal, but it's like, okay, this is a guy. It's been in Champagne's offense now for two years. You expect him to be comfortable enough to make plays against a Patriots defense that, yes, they are good, right? They've had good turnover these last two games.

I really think the Chargers and Houston, they are both in my rankings in the bottom 30 of offensive lines. Denver Broncos, number two. This is night and day between what you can do scheme-wise. And, you know, New England's defense looked like world beaters. I mean, let's be honest here. They've had a lot of help with the weather and the, I mean, just piss poor quarterback play, which once again, you can say it's all about the defense, but come on. CJ was so bad in that game. You can't just simply say that was defensive play. So Chad's going to love this one. We got burned.

earlier in the playoffs, fading the Carolina Panthers at a nine point dog at home. If the line closes at anything above three and a half for this Broncos team, or four, I should say, in the last 50 years in the playoffs, dogs of four points or more at home in the playoffs,

9 and no against the spread. They just don't lose. So we've seen it, right? The public has overreacted. This number opened at three, three and a half, immediately got steam to four, immediately got seen to four and a half. Now it's a five and a half

at a couple of different books. So, you know, again, I'm trying to be patient here, but every bookmaker I know is going to be calling me up begging me to bet Broncos for him because it's just going to be

all Patriots money. They're just going to be hammering it. And, you know, I usually go and roll over my tickets. I've just been letting my Patriots money sit out there because I'm going to go to those books and just take all that money and roll it over on this Broncos team.

That's, again, this is probably my biggest bet on the playoffs. I thought New England was going to be, I just cannot believe this number grown to five and a half chat. It's a group at this point. Well, listen, I'm inspired, and I was with you. It just seemed like too much of an overreaction.

The evidence we need lies in a man named Nick Bowles, who had a glorious tweet supporting the Broncos and their fans about what is possible when a backup comes in. Obviously, he had a little bit more of a run at the end of that eagle season, which you're aware of, but they still went through the playoffs as pretty big underdogs. And I remember this very clearly. We had just launched action in January of 2018 in the middle of those playoffs.

And we rode the Eagles all the way through the Super Bowl saying, take the Eagles at five and a half, take the Eagles at five and a half. So it's Jared Stadham, Nick Folls. We have no idea, but it's a pretty good example of what can. happen. He has been an NFL quarterback. And don't forget, Jertz didn't thought he was good enough that when they drafted Bo Nix and immediately named him the starter, he was really pissed. Like, he is not a guy who's thinking, I'm coming in and I'm going to be a placeholder. Like maybe say Ben Danucci, who was analyzing the game, I think for ESPN and then tweeted about the Broncos.

And then all of a sudden, now he's a backup for the Broncos playing in the AFC. title game like you're seeing Matt Mitchell if you're watching the video on YouTube. He's throwing up the tweets from Nick Foles and Ben Danucci. But wow, what a game. I'm with you 100%. We are totally aligned. And people ask you, is there easy even worth betting the Super Bowl future? I love the number enough.

That's going to be my biggest. But obviously, it's really just about Champagne. Champagne is actually really good as a dog in his career. He's 12 and 10 straight up when he's listed as a homeowner dog in any game in his life. So basically, you bet $100 since he started being a home dog. You would be up $744. I mean, even this season, he's 2 and O, straight up as a home dog. He beat the Packers and the Chiefs.

Thank you, Evan Abrams. That was a great, great pull. And, you know, just looking at all these matchups, it's like, okay, there has to be some negatives, right? And there is, right? The first one that jumped out to me was, okay, what the Broncos did just play an overtime game, which, again, we're going to get to the Rams game.

obviously, but the stat that's going to jump out right away is one we always talk about. It's really tough to play playoff games. And when you add in the overtime, just a wear and tear that is that extra quarter on guys' bodies, you hear ex-players talk about it. It's brutal because you've already played 18, 19 weeks of football. Now you're playing an extra quarter on top of that another game and it just adds up because it's usually a short week for some of these teams, right? But luckily for this Broncos team, they did play on this Saturday,

but I'll just go to the stat anyway. It says 2015, teams off a buy. I mean, often overtime game, facing teams that did not play an overtime game. They are 10 and 18 straight up, 11 and 17 against the spread. So, you know, plays into what people think here,

which is it's really tough to play after a playoff game. Another amazing staff from Evan Aarms. In the playoffs, when a team wins a playoff game, and now they're in the next round of a playoff game. They're 0 and 5 straight up, one and four. I guess it's spread since 2015, losing by 15 points per game.

So I'm not saying it's not going to be an uphill battle, right? Both these teams. Wait, what's the context for that stat you just gave? I feel like I didn't hear it. The context is if you play an overtime game, then you have another playoff game, the next game. Got it. The historical fact is their 0 and 5,

straight up a 104 since 2015. And, you know, if you want to go back even further, which, thankfully, Evan did, since 2002, teams are just 6 and 13 straight up in the playoffs in this exact spot. So it's really hard. It's really hard to really get that fired up by Denver. That's why it's like you don't have to take the money line.

The straight up number is so tough. Just take that future on the Super Bowl future at 13 to 1. But to me, the number, that's the key here. I'm really wanting to get people hammering this five and a half number. I think that's the key here. The Patriots could win, right? Drake May has been perfect this season. He's not lost the road game this year.

He's 8-0 straight up. Can they steal it? get a feel at the end of the game. Neither of us would be shocked. But to me, that's where we talk about the lines move too much. Three and a half is right for this game. Five and a half, you're getting two free points here. And again, I can't tell you how excited I was to see this one.

So, yeah, this is, I love betting it. And then as soon as I saw those trends from Evan, which I gave out the top of the show, that plus four dog, 9 and O. Last 50 years, it's like, oh, my God. This is just lining up the public is going to get absolutely crushed on this one because they're just going to keep hitting this Patriots. I'm giving out time it says just in case the pros do come in and bet this down below four, but, you know, five and a half, that just feels like a gift.

Do we have opinion on the total, 42 at Hard Rock, 41 and a half other places? You know, the Broncos had a little, the Broncos were 10 and 8 to the end of this year. They had a stretch where they were just giving up loads of points in the fourth quarter, and it's one of the reasons why we like, ultimately liked the over after some back and forth waffling this past weekend. because they do give up points in the fourth quarter when they have those moments. I feel like that's not likely to happen in this game. The Patriots were, what were they? Hold on. 12 and 7 to the under.

One of those unders was the last game of the season against the Chargers when No one was playing for the Chargers. So do we have a feeling on the under here? Yeah, I'm honestly going towards the over. I'll be patient. another thing where I'm not going to rush to bet it here on a Tuesday for a Sunday game and an atmosphere at Denver that we have no idea that what the weather could be. I mean, I don't know about you, Chad, but people are going crazy in my look later. We might get the once in a lifetime blizzard on Sunday.

So I don't know how that affects the rest of the country on Saturday or Sunday, or what's going to be going on in Colorado, obviously. But for this one, it's just like I said last week, if they show Denver and you see it sunny, 35 degrees out with barely any wind, you play the over. Like it's just, whatever that is, it's usually a track meet in Denver when it's a nice, cool glare like that. And both these quarterbacks, I think, could turn the bowl over. Like watching Sedim's tape, he does make great throws, high risk type of thrower. He will try to take that risky play.

We'll see if Champagne beat that out of them these last two years, but a lot of these guys are what they are. And as good as I think he is as a downfield thrower, he does like to take high risk. So I already gave you those Drake May stats. He's been highly turnover prone. Now going up against, once again, a really good defensive line. The flip side, you know, Stenheim's first star, we've seen New England be really great at turning teams over right now. You expect a lot of short field.

So, you know, to me, early bets I see coming on the over. I could see professionals coming on the over here, but I could see the public shooting towards the under just because they're like, well, backup quarterback, too good defense. It would be low scoring. But, yeah, right now my inclination is going to go the other way. could be a high sport type of game. Well, look, we wanted to mention a couple player props from this game.

You just mentioned turnovers, Jared Stidham, interceptions. We don't have to give an opinion on this yet. His over-underer is going to be set at half. Drake May, passing touchdowns, the over-underer is going to be set at one and a half in the contest. Let's do a quick word from our friends at Hard Rock Bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet, Florida's. book. I've been using it a bunch these past couple of days. These playoffs have been crazy so far. And the best way to cash in on those unexpected moments is with hard rock bet.

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what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast,

people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast. or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Keith Giamanka seemed like a mild-mannered suburban dad.

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I didn't want to manifest that. I was trying to manifest success. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man. This is going to change my life and my family dynamic forever because everything that had existed prior in my reality is now untrue. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is. Getting a racist statue removed. And here's something that should be a whole lot easier than it is. Getting a new one put up in its place. As long as there's a politics of race in America, there's going to be a politics of remembering the Civil War. To get to school, I had to go down Robert Lee Boulevard. To get to the grocery store, I had to go down Jefferson Davis, Parkway. If you're an historian and you leave out half of what the history is, you're not doing your job.

I'm Akila Hughes, and Rebel Spirit Season 2 goes deep on both of those things. The fights, the politics, the people who won, and my personal campaign to add something to the Kentucky State House that's actually worth the wall space. We are more than our bodies. We contain essence. We contain spirit. How do you represent that? They are just fueling a fire that is really catching. You'll see what I mean. Listen to Rebel Spirit Season 2 on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than me. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself.

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One ring is too scary. Oh, cream of chicken suit. Hey, cream... Cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hippocrat as part of the Micah! Culture Podcast Network available on the IFAR Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next game, NFC conference title game, Rams at Seahawks, the number's two and a half, the total's

47 and a half, pretty much locked in at two and a half since Sunday night. A little bit of money coming in at Hard Rock because it's at minus 120, two and a half minus 120. So we're seeing money coming in on the Seahawks. Simon, we've got a couple interesting comps here, and I want to run through sort of the circumstances for each of the games that these two teams have played, they split the division series. So this is the start time to play in this year.

I really want to bet the Rams. And I feel like I'm visualizing and imagining the Rams at their peak. And too often this year, the Rams have brain farts. Like they have these moments where Matthew Stafford is, missing. And Sean McVeigh is playing either conservatively or not aggressive enough or making bad play calls. He even admitted he wasn't making great calls on Sunday night. Anyone who watched that game saw they dominated when they ran the ball. They struggled when they were trying to pass the ball. And he could not get his team to commit to the run. So am I wrong for wanting to commit to

the Rams here? Simon says, no, I am with you. I'm like, I, I, I mean, you. It's presented by Hard Rockback. Amelia was going to absolutely hammer this Seahawks team just because the Rams, like you've said, the bar is just set so high. I think you're at the same level as me, where I've set the bar so high that it's tough for them to even live up to that bar.

And every week, they've kind of fallen short of that bar. Yeah. You know, they're also, this is the first time ever, a team has not covered in the wild card round, the divisional round and are still alive here in the conference championship. So this Rams team, as much grief as you want to get them, it's hard to want to go against them because they figure out a way. They find a way to win these games.

And the regular season, they kept finding ways to blow game. So I give them respect. Like that Panthers game, easy could have lost that game. Your Bears game, they tried. My God, did they try? They gave Caleb the chance to end them at the end there. God, did I try? The defense found a way to get the turnover.

Just going to pass by my TikTok trend shoutout? Okay, that's fine. I don't, I mean, I'm a growing man. I don't have TikTok. I'm sorry, buddy. All I've done for the past 12 hours is watch Indiana TikTok practically in tears when, like, they've got Fernando Mendoza's touchdown run set to like a prayer from Madonna. And at the end, you see his mom in the wheelchair, like crying hysterically.

And the dad who won't stand and cheer out of respect to the mom. not being able to stand and cheer and they're hugging and crying and then I'm crying and then I send it to my friends. I send it to Andy and Matt and I'm like you guys are not going to be able to not cry at the end of this. So yeah, I have TikTok because it keeps me engaged with my community. I got coal in my heart every time they showed her with this. I think they had the kids miced up for the game chat. Obviously you missed it because you were there and I was just like my god ESPN. They told you I hate the college way college football does it. We're like, you know, Gus Johnson thing. That kid was living in a lot.

a car last week. Now he's scoring a touchdown. They always have to try to make you cry. I hate it. They always try to get you in college. Listen, I put you on a bad path. I apologize. You were about to tell me why we're not betting the Rams, which even though I want to when I know it's the wrong play. I'm right

there with you, Charlie. When you said that, that was my initial thought to you because it's, I think of the same thought as me. It's same as the Bronco. Who is not going to be hammering the Seahawks? Who is betting the Rams? Nobody. Like I said, they've not covered now last two weeks. They haven't looked right in, I don't know, eight weeks. Like you've said, they just,

they kind of puttered it out here at the end. And it's like, well, they've had a brutal run. This will be their fourth straight, rolled game. Like, that's just, I know Arizona shouldn't count because it was before the playoffs, but it's like, that's still a road game. They still had to go on the road. That's nothing to poo-poo about. Like, that's, that's really hard. Like I said, after 18 games already, you know, 18 weeks, I should say, now they have another three straight road games and this one, you know, just, again, let's just go off the lazy stats, an extra day of rest. Could that even matter that much, Chad? Yes, that's what I'm trying to beat into people's heads here, how worn out all these players are. Just an extra day of rest or a

rest advantage team in the conference championship, 27 and 17 straight up. If the team's at home with the rest advantage, 21 and 7. So that 21 and 7 straight up. So that goes for the Seahawks in Denver. Like both of them already had an advantage just being at home in this exact spot. And, you know, the more I try to go into it, the more I'm trying to find the reasons to bet this Rams team, it's just, can we talk about the injuries, right? They might be down to number one and number two quarterbacks, which I don't know if Sam Darno can exploit, but I definitely saw it.

The way the Bears exploit it was they could not tackle. I think they had 20 broken tackles in that game against the Rams, which is by far the most the ramps have given up all season. Like that's just not the type of defense they run. Usually they're very well-coached, well-tackled team. What you've seen when these backup cornerbacks are coming in, you know, they don't want to lay the thump on these running backs, right? They're covered corners.

There's a reason they're not starters. Not only because they're not great at covering, but sometimes not great tacklers. I mean, how many times did your running backs break tackles? And now, you know, obviously huge blow to the Seahawks. They lost Charbonnet, which, you know, if you haven't been found in the Seahawks this year, I know you might look at a statutes.

he's not been that impressive. He has. He has this rare ability to find the end zone in the red zone. Like he just always would find the end zone. And that was the big reason they'd use it so much down there was those tough yards. He'd always fight through. It was just a different style of running. And, you know, now they're down to still a great running back, but it was a big deal, right?

They had a two-headed horse that they've leaned on these last couple weeks. I mean, Stafford at Stafford. Darnold probably isn't thrown for 300 yards in 10 weeks. Like, they've just totally leaned into the run game and this defense. than the season here, and it's carried them. So looking at this matchup, you know, as bad as Donald's injury is, I think what we talked,

we talked about last week yet to get 12 completions and 17 pass attempts. They were able to hide it, right? That game totally went their way. This game, they won't be able to, but it's another week of rest on that oblique. Like, I think that is going to help him. And obviously, you know,

I think Shanahan sold him out, like talking about him getting shot up. They'll do the same thing here, right? They'll shoot him up. He won't be able to feel it anyway. And, you know, all these numbers, I keep going through with this Rams team. Can they win this game?

Yes, we've talked about. It's really hard in your division playing the same team three times. And, you know, this is going to be the toughest matchup of the Seahawks of face, but I feel like it's too much overcome, Chad. All the road games, all the injuries, it's just eventually got to pop up on this

Rams team. So I'm interested to see what the pros are going to do with this number. Like, I already know the pros are going to be with Meloacos. I really am to see what they're going to do with this one because to me, you saw, 10, maybe 11 of the 20 books here in Jersey hit three. And then some group came in and hammered the ramps because every book went right back to two and a half.

So I can't wait to find out more by the time we get the Thursday show what's going to that one. But right away, I know it's boring, it's chalky, but I like both the home teams. I like the Broncos, like the Seahawks, especially Seahawks at two and a half. But I'm just being patient on this one because if there's that much resistance of three, maybe we get back to the one. half, which is what this number opened out with the Seahawks.

So it's a number number, another number I'm going to be patient on, see if it does come down and see what the professional is doing this one. But I mean, everyone's going to see these trends I've talked about. Everyone's going to see these trends against the Rams. It's just, it's a brutal, brutal schedule for them to overcome. And talk about the NFL, I know they don't care. They're just trying to get the TV product, but to have the Rams play Sunday night and then an overtime game, I mean, that's just so brutal.

Now, they have to go on the road and play a Seahawks team that basically, rested all their starters in the fourth quarter. They haven't really played a full four quarters in three weeks. It's just, it feels like it's too much, Chad. So, yeah, it's, people can see I really love this one, but I really, I really am interested to see where this number goes. Look, there's a lot of comps from those two games where the Rams really did outplay them in a significant, significant way.

I'm with you, though. That's why I haven't pulled the trigger. like I want to be on the Rams, but part of me was waiting to see if we can get to a solid three. And also part of me feels like it's a little bit off because I'm imagining something that might not be there in a consistent way. So I appreciate you talking me down a little bit here. I have not connected to that. I'll give a stab from Evan. Just talking about these road teams.

So it's a third consecutive road game in the playoffs. So teams in this exact spot, in the regular shoes, even the playoffs, they're 48 and 79 straight up, so 37%, which is what you're looking at, success rate or win rate for the Rams here. When the team is listed as an underdog, which is what the Rams are, they are 22 and 67 straight up. So even worse, 24%. When we're in the playoffs, it's the third straight road game.

In the playoffs, those teams, 12 and 3rd and 3rd. straight up so 28% that is 9 and 28 straight up so 24% when their list is an underdog like it's just you blindly got to bet the sea ox here like it's just all the numbers back up exactly we're talking about the rest disparity is too much and you know I think chat you thought you know at the top where I think it's because I'm the same way where I had the ramp power rate it's so high coming into the I think that was week 12 or week 13 where I didn't way up everyone else it's really come way back down and after last week with the Calks and that performance where they're defense. I did bump them up to be the number one team, right? And it's reflected. I think the books

have them as maybe as a plus 100 or plus 110 Super Bowl favor right now, which makes total sense. Like of all the teams left, they are by far the most complete team despite all the question of the quarterback position. So yeah, it's, it's crazy to think. I'm talking about a Stenum versus Darnold Super Bowl here, but I think that's where we're looking at here, brother. All right. We'll get more into the total. I want to dig in a little bit more on that, the comps from those two games and see if anything sort of moves us aggressively. Yeah, I was looking for the under again. You said, we'll talk more about it.

I just like the other total, I have no early play here in the week. I just, I'm betting both sides early here, but on the total for me, I'm not rushing to bet it. Player props, Jackson, Smith, and Jigba total touchdowns over under a half. Matthew Stafford, longest completion will be over under 39 and a half. Those will be in the contest. Listen, we got three games left in the season. Indiana University are the national champions in college football. It has been a wild January.

I got to get back to a little bit of a normal life. I appreciate everyone coming along for the ride. I appreciate a heart rep bet. Hooking me up with some ducats for a glorious, glorious experience here in Miami. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Thursday. We'll nail down the picks. We'll get to some brass ball, so much more.

Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe to the channel, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. The road to the Super Bowl is like a mythic quest. It's a demanding journey, an adventure that creates heroes.

Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.

We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments.

If we didn't talk ever again, I was funny. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game 7, Marquis'clock, he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs.

This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game. the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This week on Crimless, Rory and I welcome a very special guest. When I did podcasts, I wear my sleep masks. I like where this is going. So if you guys will indulge me. That's right, the incredibly talented and hilarious Will Ferrell on an episode dedicated to crimes

committed by people named Will Ferrell. You're good for 300 crimes? Yeah. We got two. I'm ready to go. go right up to present day. Listen to Crimless on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

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