The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL DRAFT Betting Update: More Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

Episode Date: April 8, 2026

The 2026 NFL Draft approaches as host Chad Millman and professional gambler Simon Hunter welcome back NFL Draft betting expert Derek Brown of FantasyPros.Before the Las Vegas Raiders are "on the clock" with the No. 1 overall pick in Pittsburgh on April 23rd, our trio looks for gambling value as a few new betting markets continue to leak out. Today they examine player prop bets and make their picks and predictions on what to expect in the weeks ahead. Plus, we hear more about the smartest strategies on how to approach this unique betting event, as sportsbook operators begin to open the floodgates before the chaos of Draft Night. #Volume  -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you.

you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the ice. Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

The story I've told myself can then shape my behavior, and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast Deeply Well with Debbie Brown. If you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole, this podcast is for you to hear more. Listen to Deeply Well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021.

And I'm Kunky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the U. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet.

We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined. As always, by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my confidre professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? Listen, I'm not known for being insufferable,

but right now I live in a house of champions. University of Michigan, my wife's alma mater, college basketball champions, Indiana University, my alma mater, college football, champions. It's a strange world, as we all know, with a lot of crazy stuff going on outside of sports, when Indiana is the football school and Michigan is the basketball school. But that's where we live. And I'll also say,

I hope people join the volumes, hard rock bet, brackets contest. I came pretty close, brother. I had Yukon winning it all, and I think I had Yukon beating Michigan. So it was nearly there for me. Yeah, honestly, it's, I'm not going to beat you down too hard, Chad. But yeah, you are shining right now having me 25 and 26 year olds playing your college sports team.

Who cares? I'm proud of you. By the way, I'm curious. You know what? I keep honest to God. Listen to my precious. I knew it. I knew it was going to get them.

I knew it. I knew it. It's who cares? Everyone's got the same rules. Everyone has to play the same game. This is how it is now. I saw some story I read this morning on ESPN.com. Like people are saying Michigan.

against the Transfer Portal champion. Who gives a fuck? Anybody can go spend on players. Anybody can get Transfer Portal guys. And by the way, we're seeing what happens when you don't have Transfer Portal guys. And you got younger guys who aren't used to the pressure and aren't playing as adults with what happened with Duke. So fine.

Give me Transfer Portal guys. That's what coaches have to do now. Everybody needs to build into a different system. That's the way it is. I have no problem with teams going out and winning titles because they're spending on adults to come play the game. And if they're 23 years old and they're playing against 18 year olds and there's a physical difference, who cares? Those are the rules. Play the rules. That's it. Yeah, big 10 billionaires. That's what we, everyone keeps talking out. The big 10 billionaires,

Chad. So I bet you don't care. I bet you like it. I don't care. And you know what else you're seeing? You're seeing what a difference the money makes. And the cowherd and I have actually had this conversation before this NIL stuff started. But as it was becoming clear, that's what it was going, he and I had a long conversation how this will benefit the Big Ten. It will benefit the Big Ten because the Big Ten's footprint for alumni is just significantly bigger than anybody else's. And the SEC, when the SEC can recruit from the Southeast and get tremendous athletes, especially in football, when all of a sudden that recruiting base is bigger and because the money can be spent by in much more overt ways.

The alumni base for the Big Ten is just too big. And the people who are alumni for the Big Ten have made too much money in a variety of industries. This money was going to go back into the system and you're seeing the Big Ten benefit from that. It's tremendous. Great for the Big Ten. I fucking love it. I bet you do.

I have no problem with it. the way society works. If you're a better, bringing it back to the betting, I think that might have been the easiest run I've ever had for college basketball. Yukon now, I believe they're 1901 against the spread the last like three or four years in the tournament. Like it's just, I know pros who like think they're smart

and they try to fade Yukon and every week they're losing and it just cracks me up where it's like, dude, I don't, you're not that smart. Covered again last night. Yeah, take the money, take the cover. It's incredible. done. And like you said, Michigan, hats off to them. Like both, both games super dominant. Final four. I think like Evan Abrams had a crazy stab. They had like the most points ever

heading in to the final game since UCLA in like the 80s or 70s. So second most. Yeah, that was really impressive though. So obviously. Amazing. Yukon hung in there. But as we all know, Michigan won it. And yeah, I wish we had a show because I was like, I wanted to hear what Duck has to say on this game. But I don't know what you bet, Chab. I obviously took the seven and a half on UConn and it was a fun sweat, but luckily it came through. I thought, Simon, I de-ended with Duck on social media. We're basically a college basketball podcast now because we nailed Tennessee and Iowa. We nailed UCon as our brass balls. We just went on a run. It was really fun to be a part of this tournament. Fun as a Yukon fan, fun as a someone who's married to

a Michigan fan. It was a blast, but we got to turn the page. Last week, we had Derek Brown, co-host of Fantasy Pros podcast and our brother here at the Volume Podcast Network, come on the show. I thought it was one of the smartest draft analysis shows we've done since the Mac Jones era when you were all over that. So we've conscripted Derek into being our draft analyst for the next eight episodes or however many we're doing before the draft. Derek, welcome back, brother. Oh, guys, thank you for having me back.

And I would have hopped in this whole college basketball conversation. If honestly, I could tell you I knew anything about the college basketball landscape these days. I haven't kept up with it since, like, Roy Smith and all kinds of stuff, man. So it's been a minute. So I'll just, I'll sit back and listen to a chat, have a good time here. Well, listen, you were, you lived in Baton Rouge forever. And my theory on this and that Cowher and I have talked about, and maybe you can agree or disagree, is that these southern schools now, the SEC schools, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida, they are, as someone who has a kid who's a freshman in college and just went through the process in the last couple of years, they're becoming more and more competitive.

And they're attracting students from far outside. the southeast quadrant of the country. And I do think in the next 10, 20 years, you're going to start seeing people who went there from the northeast. Look, I live in Connecticut. So many kids I know are going to Florida, so many kids of friends of ours,

going to Florida, Georgia, et cetera. And Alabama, like, they are going to then move and the footprint for people who will be donating to these schools and supporting the NAL for these schools is just going to be so much bigger that will all catch up. But I do think the way that the provincial nature of the way schools have long existed is changing. And that will change how teams raise money and how teams spend money.

I don't disagree at all. I think you got really deep pockets throughout the SEC. And plus, you know, a lot of these warm weather schools, they already have the edge on recruiting in their backyards for football and baseball and long-story traditions. So however you want to splice this up, tons of free. and money, warm weather climates, good fertile, like recruiting grounds. I mean, it all kind of stacks up. The SEC is beast and everybody else is just kind of, you know, following suit here.

Except for the Big Ten, which is. Fair, fair. Fair. Now, I'll let you have your moment. Home of Champions. Hey, you know who's having a moment? One of my favorite cities in the world, the city of Pittsburgh. Beautiful city, resurgent city hosting the draft. 700,000 people expected to attend the draft.

And because of that, the city of Pittsburgh has decided that school will be canceled that day because it will be too much of a nightmare with everybody descending into the city to try to get around. All makes perfect sense to me. I have no issue with it. How do you guys feel about that? Simon? The no school part for the kids. I mean, I'm a proud of, obviously.

The school, that's a whole other conversation. But, yeah, to have kids have an experience like that, a day off. You know, I went to the NFL draft in Philly, and you could say, well, I'm 20 years older than those kids. I still had an amazing time because it's just as much fun for adults as for kids. If you just love football around football people, it's a great time. And, yeah, Pittsburgh, obviously, Chad just said it's a beautiful city, perfect weather. lead into that spot. So I'm about it.

The football, I know baseball is America's sport, but to me, football, we all know. It's America's pastime. And we're all waiting for it, right? The day off after the Super Bowl, once they bring in this 18th game, they push it back to President's weekend. It just makes sense. It's truly a national holiday at this point. So the fact that, you know, the Rockefeller people blew it, they told the NFL they couldn't

have the draft because they already scheduled something. and now Gidel, he makes a lot of missteps, but this is one of his best achievements, I think. It's another other thing that's going to be part of his lasting legacy is this draft taken to the city, city, because I know professional betterers who have gone to Nashville for it. I know guys who have traveled following the draft around every year because it's fun and it's good for sourcing.

Like you're around these teams, around these people who are having a good time because they've just worked like maniacs for 12 months. Now it's all ending at this draft. So, yeah, I'm with you. I think it's pretty awesome, honestly. Are you saying loose lips? Loose lips in the last 48 hours before the draft happens.

So if you can get on the ground and be around everybody who's ready to let loose, then you're going to get some intel. Yeah. No, that's a real thing. You're constantly working these people because everyone is the heightened level where they're trying to get as much info as possible because everyone's ready about losing their guy. That's why you see these teams trade up and take a guy. You're like, why did they just trade up to take him?

Because it's all information based. It's all being fed information. And that's how you build relationships, right? If you give some good info that pays off for them, they will have you in their good graces for a very long time. Until you burn that bridge, which unless you're an idiot, you wouldn't do. So, yeah, for me, Chad, it's, I still don't go as hard cords. I used to interject.

Like I said, it's not as profitable as it used to be. But am I going to have guys boots on the ground? Yeah, I'm not going to work on the phones. Yeah, I am looking for an edge, looking for an angle. And obviously, if I hear anything, I always pass it along on the street. show. Hey, Derek, in the last week since we spoke, we talked about the markets and they're sort of slowly trickling out. Forget about having to bet markets. I'm going to ask you this in a second, but in the last week, what kind of rumblings have you heard? How much are you getting

knocked on by sources to talk about the draft, see what's happening, see what you can share like Simon was just saying. A few knocks at the door and stuff. I think it's kind of still the calm before the storm. So hearing a little bit here and there, you're hearing something. And really, this is kind of, again, before everything kind of revs up, like, we're just now getting into like, you know, top 30 visits and stuff like that. So not a ton coming my way, but I'm sure the tidal wave is, I mean, it's, I can see it right now

right at the horizon. What do you guys think? Go ahead, Simon. What did you say? Do you want an update? on the lines what we gave out because it is interesting seeing the movement week to week. Oh, I saw the movement, yep. What happened?

Tell me, tell me. Well, just Derek gave it a great pick about the offensive line in the first round, right? It was over seven, seven and a half. That was, you could have got a plus number or minus 110. It's now minus 175. That's a heavy movement. Just not, obviously not off our show, but I think that's just showing people that this offensive line

group, more people mock that eighth guy in. That's what you see. Right. Daniel Jeremiah puts on a mocked as that has that eighth offense alignment in there. Boom, this is going to move. That's where I tell people to get these bets early. Running back, like I told you, I don't think there's going to be a second running back in the first round, but there are two guys fighting for that back-end position, right?

And, you know, to me, we gave it out of 550, 575 plus 575 to be two running back sticking in the first round is now down to plus 475. Wow. Like, you just keep seeing those little movements chip away. That's our whole point of, like, talking about these early. lines, you're talking about getting them now because things are going to keep moving. And, you know, we talked, wire receivers in their first round. There's a bunch of different books moving.

I think we talked about it. It was like plus 180 plus 175, 3.5 and a half. Now it's down to plus 150 plus 140. So again, that's not a ton of moving people. But that 30, 40 cents when you're betting mass amounts, that's big money. So that's where we're talking about. Still move into the right direction, baby. I mean, we need a podcast to be like, oh, it's so early to be listening, talking

draft or betting draft. This is it. You're in it. You want to start taking positions now just to either be a hygiene or you don't need to do anything. That's the best part. Like the day comes, you're already in an amazing position. So yeah, props to Derek for now that offensive line move. That was by far the biggest movement of the first. Yeah. And also, just to throw this out there, we were talking, I was talking about the volatility in Rubin Bain at plus 1,400. He's down to plus 1,000 plus 1,200. And David Bailey's had some movement too because the steam's kind of coming in on him over the last few days. with a lot of mocks and people talking about, you know, if they don't go Arville-R-R-Veece, then it's going to be Bailey. So, again, we're seeing movement in the markets. It's just more condensed and, you know, again, chipping away at it. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what?

We have some big news. What's the news, huge news? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts.

Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band

before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas.

And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a, potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.

We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an Acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending. Opinions are flying. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened.

That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down,

give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to SportsSlic on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slicelife-12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis. And I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs. And on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris.

Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on clay. Jen can win. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lena Rubakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck.

Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Did you guys watch the coverage of Fernando Mendoza's Pro Day at all last week? A little. So a lot was made about Fernando Mendoza calling out the names of his receivers and the routes that they were running during his pro day. And people were flipping out about it. And I can't ever tell from your perspective, Derek, I want to start with you, is stuff like that just being fetishized?

and is it silly or does it matter? Is it similar to Rubin Bain's arm length? Like what is the value of something like that in terms of translating what that means for someone as a professional? None. I just think it's useless. Like I think it's right now we're in the,

like I said, the calm before the storm and then we get to the pro days and it's like the QB1, the 101 pick and stuff. Like, and I said I barely looked at his pro day stuff because I just don't care about a lot of the pro days stuff. Like the throwing sessions, I don't care. The film tells all I don't care if the guy runs in 17 circles and then chucks it up, you know, Will Levis style,

Zach Wilson style. Doesn't matter to me. I think there's certain things to take away from pro days when we see guys that come back from injuries like Germa McCoy coming out and running like a 4-340, guys where we've had speed questions, whether they test or they don't test. I take more of that away from the pro days.

that we're getting that type of intel and what that can do for players draft stock. Like if we're talking about, you know, betting certain markets if a guy goes top five, top 10, you know, like somebody like McCoy, where, you know, he was probably more on the middle of the first round kind of deal. Could he sneak into the top 10? I'm not projecting that. But if we continue to see kind of like slight buzz on him, could that happen? It's possible because I think there's a clear delineation of like the top two corners in this draft. So things like that were, whether I'm applying it to betting or proof of concept, stuff like that, that's what I take away from pro days. All the throwing sessions and stuff like that.

I'll leave that to the social media, you know, aggregation accounts for that kind of stuff. I guess, yeah. Like, Simon, why do these things matter? Aren't you just, you're playing catch something you've done a thousand times with these receivers? like it just doesn't make any sense to me that people put any merit into a pro day. Yeah, I would say for someone like me, it's a big deal, Chad. I know it sounds corny, but like I love it. Like the quarterback, I study quarterbacks nonstop.

That's my position I really hyper-focus on because I just think there's huge edges in betting when you can really get good reasons of quarterbacks. And I tell everyone if you're an amateur better and you're trying to get better at it, learn the quarterback position, learn about footwork, right? Learn about quarterback arm angles. All that stuff does matter. Learning to watch tape on quarterbacks, you might think it's a waste of time.

It doesn't. It's all an added tool to your tool chest. And what I'm looking for is exactly what he showed me, right? Like apparently he's been working more under center. He's been learning the Raiders playbook even before he's drafted by them. I know it doesn't sound like that matters to feel, but to me that's a huge deal because he is limited. There are things Fernando Mendoza is not good at.

And, you know, in the right draft class with other quarterbacks, he would not be the number one. But what he needs to be at 10 at is going above and beyond, working harder than everyone else, being that hardcore team leader guy where, yeah, on TV, they're like, well, Fernana's been here two hours before just getting ready working out. Yeah, is that corny? Does that really matter?

No, that's what we want to see from a guy like Fernando Mendoza. You need him to be that guy that goes way above and beyond. So, yeah, for me, I watched it just to see how he's a progressing. Because like I said, there's a lot of things I like about his game. There's a lot of stuff from like, this guy has bust written all over him. Really? hilarious. He is doing more under center.

And, you know, they went out and they spent whatever it was, over $100 million. It felt like on a center just to get him more comfortable with that, the Raiders. That to me is all going to matter for Mendoza going forward. So, yeah, I'm, I just, I feel like the Raiders. can't mess this up, right? They have the perfect personality. This guy, he's not a wet blanket. He's got personality to him, but he's not going out on Friday again, drinks in Vegas. And there are half the quarterbacks in the league that would be going out, maybe hitting that blackjack table in the private room. And to me, Mendoza, everyone I talk to behind the scenes,

everything. It's like, no, no skeletons in the closet. This is legit who he is. Good dude. You would want to get a beer with him. Team leader, like, no doubt about it. So, yeah, everything I've seen this offseason, it just, I keep loving the kid even more. So I can't believe the Raiders had this fall on their laps. And the Jets won a meaningless game and missed out on this guy because he would have been perked for the Jets as well. Like I said, he could be a bust, but I feel like his upside so high, any team would have been so lucky to get it for Mendoza.

Like I said, I'm a crazy person, but I love watching all this QB stuff. I'm glad he's not going to the Jets. They would have screwed it up. But what's interesting, and I think Derek disagrees here, you just said you think he could just easily be a bust. I don't think Derek agrees with that at all. I, we, we, we, we'll agree to disagree on that. I think he's a really clean eval.

I think if we're talking about bus players, you know, Ty Simpson all day. I think that's, that's the clear bus to me. But for Mendoza, I just thought he was a clear eval. Like, is he the most, like, naturally gifted throw of the football where you're getting all the highlight real stuff of like Patrick Mahomes and Caleb Williams? No, but I think there's some. something to be said that we've honestly like our view of quarterback play and what's important has kind of been tainted a little bit by people chasing the highlight real stuff and chasing

the out of structure stuff and chasing the ESPN moments like is that cool and if you can live in that world of five to seven plays a game can it make a difference sure I think there's also something to be said for running the freaking offense man like throwing a ball accurately keeping the offense on schedule, doing the things you're supposed to and doing them at a really consistent high level. Like, it's boring, but I really appreciate that from quarterback class because we've seen guys come out to the NFL and struggle with that. Like, you know, Caleb Williams, like everybody pushed back when I wasn't as high on him versus consensus. And then he goes out and has kind of a subpar rookie season. I think honestly, like per

dropback metrics, like still struggling. It's glossed over by the Ben Johnson effect. And a lot of the things with Chicago, but I still don't look at him as being an accurate passer. So, you know, maybe this, you know, some of this just comes down to like quarterback e-vals and how we attack the position and stuff. But I like Mendoz a lot. It's so interesting. Simon, what makes you think he would be a bust? Expectations. Like to me, he could be closer to Derek Carr than he is to a Tom Brady type. Like that's, that's a thing where it's like, Do I think he can be good? Yeah, I think he has potential.

But to think he'll be like Andrew Luck, right, going to the AFC championship in his second or third year or like Joe Burrow, I just feel like expectations are already too high on this kid where my word for Mendoza is, did he plateau? Have we seen? Because he just had the best coaching you could possibly have. And he did live up to it. Like I said, like those sideline throws, the fades, all of it.

That's why I love Mendoza. I think he has a ton of potential. The question is, can you keep believe? on that because I'm always looking for the raw talent. Like that's why I love Caleb Williams. Caleb Williams had so much raw talent. He just needed coaching. Like he never had the coach that can mold that into him.

And we talked about like the coach, Ben Jonson's beating him down. He is beating him down mentally. All of it. That's what he needed. I'm interested in what Mendoza is going to need because he just went from the best coaching you can have. And that coach got every drop of ounce of talent at a Mendoza.

And he put on the 20 pounds of muscle. Like, what is there more for him to build on that he built on last year and improved so much? So like I said, I think he can work out. Like, I think mentally all this, all that stuff is there. It's just can the league figure him out and can he adjust to it? Because that's the hardest part. Like, once you have your best season, the league adjust. I mean, we talk all the time.

The home's the goat, he'll never get back to 50 touchdowns again, right? The league adjusted so hard. That offensive scheme is gone. Like, you cannot be pushing the ball downfield. like that anymore. It's just the league has changed so much. So, you know, for me, expectations of Mendoza and one of the hardest divisions in football, right? Like, Mahomes, Bo Nix, and Justin Herbert, if he can make them a playoff contender over the next 10 years and maybe win one or two playoff games, maybe make it to an AFC championship game,

that to me would be successful to others, chat. That's a bust. Like the, that's what I'm saying, the expectations on Mendoza right now are so high. Because like you said, that might have been one of the best college football seasons we ever seen. It's the same thing with Joe Burrow. Oh, yeah. Like, Joe Burrow, no one thinks he's a bust. We'll see if he missed the playoffs again for another three, four years. That conversation is going to start happening.

So that's the NFL. It's just the expectations are insane. And I am, again, I know it's tough because you guys both like me, does I like them too. I'm just putting out there right now. There's little things I see from him. Like, my God, this came out of plateaued. And I don't know how much more there's going to be built off of this.

So I'm excited to see what he does in the next level. Like it's, it's, It's all there. It's just, can he keep it proving? Not to push back, but to add on to that, Simon. What I would say was go to splice his tape, his film of 2025 season, cut it in half, go watch the beginning of it and watch the stretch run stuff. Because when I first walked into his tape eval, I was like, okay, there's a lot of like RPO's space,

easy completions, like, where is the NFL caliber throws into tight windows? and you're doing stuff and the aggressiveness and the playmaking ability, you see that more, or at least I saw it personally, more towards the back half of the 2025 season,

when competition, the lights got brighter, things like that. I mean, just go to the national championship game and stuff to where you see more grit and playmaking and the willingness

to kind of stomp the gas pedal a little bit more. That's what gave me a little more, not hope, but like optimism that Mendoza still got a, like, another level that we can still get to and explore in another like fast other facets of his game that

I think he can still grow. You just said it though. You said he was an RPO merchant. So that's the fear. It's like, that's a lot of quarterbacks in college though. I mean, and then they get to NFL and it's not,

it's gone. Like you just can't run in the NFL. The linebackers are too long, too fast. And so are the corners. They just know those plays. So that's why I can't see what he becomes because it's like, like you said,

those fade routes. He did keep getting better and better. It's just, yeah, like any quarterback, we have questions. The fact that he's going to an organization that their last good quarterback, I mean, Derek Carr was good, but I'm talking like Carrie Collins, like 2000. I mean, it's been a long time since the Raiders. Pre-leg-snap Derek Carr was pretty good. He was never the same guy after he got the injury, though.

I still have memories of MVP conversation car, but a long time ago. What's interesting about Mendoza is the number of, of games in which outside of the coaching, the play is called, you still have to deliver. I'm thinking about Penn State. I'm thinking about Oregon. I'm thinking about against Miami in the national title game where he made the play that had to be made. If you've gotten that kind of coaching, that's something that carries over. You're not going to lose that instinct, that lesson, that learning and the ability to make that play. If it's the right play call, you can deliver on that play call because that's something that is now part of who he is as a quarterback as a fan and as someone

who watched every single Indiana football snap. I agree with what Derek just said. He got better. Like when they started talking about Fernando Mendoza as the Heisman Trophy contender, I was like, what? The guy like, they're winning, but they're not winning because of him. And then as the season went on, he got better and better. And all of a sudden they were winning because of him at the exact right times and maybe he's just got that next level instinct about winning and competing that can't be coached he didn't have the number like you just said it was the moments is what he had so i i agree he totally it was the moment completely the numbers but um yeah like we're talking about here it's i'm nitpicking i'm just getting out of the people the pretense of yes is did dan or laski go overboard saying that

tyist system was better than him yes but are there are gms out there or scouts that have major questions about Fernando Mendoza? Yes. And I know teams that they wouldn't be taking them in the top five, right? They would kick the can down the road for next year's draft class. And there's nothing wrong with that, right? These teams who all think they're geniuses, they're idiots. There's plenty of teams that passed on Mahomes that passed on

Josh Allen because they didn't trust that build. But yeah, like I keep talking about Fernando Mendoza. I'm excited to see him the next level. I'm just worried that he, like Chad just said, he had special moments and everything like, that, is he J.J. McCarthy? That would be the fear. It's like, was he a really good quarterback on a really good stack team who did make the plays when he had to and won a national title, but was it all smoke mirrors? And that's the fear. Like, do I think Mendoza is better than

JJ? Of course. He's throwing it 10 times the amount of times JJ threw it in college. But I just the winning stuff, unfortunately, it doesn't really translate to NFL. Like it just, it's great. I care about it. It's part of what I like Mendoza, but I'm not going to get bogged down. in it. I still get to Fernando Mendoza touchdown run against Miami in my social feeds at least once a day with a different song and a different

at different slow motion paces and it's it just it makes me so happy do you have them all bookmarked like in the so instead of like a jolt of caffeine in the afternoon Chad you just turn on the highlight reel seriously it's like watching old

like West wings or breaking bad It's like I'll just turn on a clip and it makes me so freaking happy. I cannot, I cannot tell you. He's never even watched that ever again. He just burned the tape. As soon as that season ended, he was on to 2026. That's why I love your coach. Signetti's out there.

He's doing like, he is so fucking good. He's doing press conferences right now where he's now going after the old coach at TCU for making snide remarks about IU's new quarterback, who was at TCU but threw a lot of picks and the signetti was like, well, you know, he didn't have a defense and he didn't have a running game. So you throw less picks when you got those two things. Like he just, he is awesome.

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We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts.

Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down?

Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel

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The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay. Genschen went. I mean, she went down at three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lina Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world.

right now. And I actually can win on any surface because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. I think it's really important as we get closer to the draft. Talk a little bit about strategy. And Simon, you just mentioned it at the top of the show. It's really, important to be thinking about long shots, bigger prices, because it helps you build a profitable draft portfolio. Derek, when you're putting together your bets and thinking about how you want

to position yourself for draft night, what is the makeup of your overall portfolio in terms of like, you think it's going to happen to, I need to have more long shots in here? I think it's a buried buffet. Like, I want a good mix of a lot of different angles. So, you know, you don't want to go just chasing outliers and your entire portfolio looks like plus 1,000 bets. And then you're like, you know, we turn over the cards after 32 picks. And you're like, good Lord, I went one for 15. Ugh. Like, you don't let that to happen. So I think it's everything from, are we getting good prices and ahead of the market on some guys and taking some leverage bets because of the and are you mixing in the plus 1,000s, the plus 1,400s and even plus 500s versus also

taking some plus 100 and 200 bets where you're either getting some of the, you know, like we already talked about from last week's show, like plus 185 is now down. Plus like plus 100 is now like steamed up and now it's minus 150. You know, so I think it's building a varied portfolio of you have the long shot plus 1,000s and what have you and stuff, if they hit, they can make your night go from good to great or they can make an okay night just turning profitable. So I think it's really mixing and matching a lot of different angles and looks. Simon. Yeah, to me, the biggest thing for just the general public out there is just find mock draft guys you can trust. Like, am I here to kill Mel Kuiper?

No, but if you're still trusting Mel Kuiper, a man who's been this business a long time. And, you know, sure, he might know the no, but is he hungry? I don't think he's that hungry. I want a hungry dog. Like Todd McShay last year, he started a new company. That was a hungry dog last year. That man was putting in work. And he did pretty damn good on his mock draft.

Daniel Jeremiah does pretty well in his mock draft. Show Clat, you know, he's not an NFL guy, but he knows college football. He knows these guys in and out. That's another guy that, you know, coward has on his show. Listen to him. Hear what he's here and hear what he says about these players. And that, to me, is a big thing where the public, there's so much good information out there now. You want to find the right guys you can trust to give you that information.

You want to build positions off that stuff. So, you know, to me, I'm trying my best to get people good information. I'll never be as plugged in as Daniel Jeremiah. Like this man, you know, I don't know if you're still working for the NFL network or now, whether you spend whatever it is, he's the big dog. He gets really good info and he is playing a game, but he'll leave you guys breadcrumbs. Like, you see him consistently talking about a player and a team, that's a breadcrum. Like that is someone putting out signals there.

So it's a lot of legwork people. Like I said, the draft is hard, but you should be listening to all these people's podcast. You should be checking out if they're writing anything, you know, it Brewer is writing anything for us. It's all there. These guys are all plugged in trying to give you information and, you know, sometimes you do you need to trust your gut. And if I come on here and I'm like, hey, this guy is saying this stuff because he's working with this guy's agent and it's smokescreen. I wouldn't be listed that. I'd fade it. We can make money that way too. So that's the thing. It's like I'm working at all. I'm working with the public's working with. And I'm trying to work stuff behind the closed doors. And like I said, people, you really need to be really hive mind here. You need to be all in on information right now and take it all in at once because. Everything matters. Every little thing really does matter right now. And it's tons of breadcrumbs. You got to really figure out what's what.

Derek, to your point real fast. Sorry, Jed, I wanted to add this too, because I thought you brought up something extremely valuable there. If we're looking at the breadcrumbs, for me, it's fine,

the mock drafts, but I think everybody's going to go to the mock drafts too. It's the top 50 boards, man, that when you see big movement on players, like where they bump up 10, 15 spots, some of that can be some agent's team and stuff. some of that is also following substance and what guys are hearing. So right now, if it's not the mock drafts that everybody's reading,

check out the top 50 boards. And when you're making these lines of demarcation of the top 32, guys that have jumped up massively, whether it's because you'll see movement, you'll see big movement. And sometimes that's maybe Jeremiah is hearing stuff around the league or other people are hearing stuff around the league. It's also maybe, you know, I was too low on a guy,

but you're trying to siphon off all of this stuff. I think the big board movement is something that not a lot of people look at and they should. When you're looking at all of this stuff, Derek, how much do you, how much do you refer to mock drafts? Are there mock drafts that you believe in more than others? It just depends on sources. Like I will say there are some that like were I pull them up and immediately I'm like, oh, this is this is crap. Like I you're not seeing like, I'm like trying to like. like follow the logic and the thinking and I'm like,

what like are we addressing needs? Are we getting a year ahead of needs? Is this something that even looks like it's plausible where I'm like, okay, never mind. Bring moving on. So I'd say I kind of use them as casting a wide net and kind of look at like where you're seeing commonalities between a bunch of different ones. Then saying, okay, read this one guy or two guys.

Because I think there's, you know, There's a lot of smoke and mirrors with all of them. That's interesting. All right. I feel like, listen, we're guilty of this too. It's the NFL draft and it's the NFL. So everybody wants to talk about it as much as possible, dissect it as much as possible. Barnwell, our friend of the show, Bill Barnwell, just had a story come out on ESPN.com.

32 different first round trades scenarios, one for every pick. obviously that's not something that's actionable but it does make us think about what makes the draft so unique and sometimes infuriating as a betting event because one or two trades can change everything right if if someone trades out of the back of the first round and they trade to a team that needs a running back all of a sudden simon there's two running backs in the first round right knowing that trades can happen is that make long shot That's a smarter approach. Is it one reason to avoid paying huge juice on anything?

Like we know there are no sure things when it comes to the draft. So how do you account for trades? Derek, you start. I think looking at the trade market and the volatility, it's like, what do you think in your mind's eye or what are you hearing teams that are candidates to trade down? And I think like every draft class is also its own organism of, and especially speaking to this draft class, where we're all like, okay, because it takes two to tango.

Not only does a team, if they want to trade down, you need a team that needs to come up. And so it's like, who are they clamoring for? Who are they coming up for? Are we going to see a lot of trades happen in particular classes? And some of that depends on, you know, the class itself. So it's kind of like you're looking, just look at the top of the board of this one. It's like Arizona is a team that we're all like, you know,

a lot of people of the chalk pick is tack. what if they don't go tackle? What if they trade back? A lot of these things are in play. But it's like if that happens, what team is, who are they coming up for? So you're looking at the draft class. It's like, are there? And I like this class maybe a little bit more than most.

But even I'm playing the game in my head of like, if a team's coming up, who are they coming up for? And is that even a plausible situation? So I think there's definitely, the way that I kind of attack the trades is playing the leverage and some of the long shot stuff. of certain markets and specifically the way that I'll look at it like some of the if you're looking at a lot of these teams right now and the teams that stick out to me of trade back candidates are the ones that like the commanders and other ones that like they have like their first round pick but they don't have any like a second round pick. They don't maybe pick into the third or the fourth round. So they look like the most logical trade back. But if they trade back who's going in that slot and

how do you attack that? So some of these teams, it's like, if they trade back, and I'll, I'll bring up one specifically, like the Buffalo Bills, like could they trade out of their first round pick? Like, could they go wide receiver? How are you attacking that? Right now, looking at the markets right now, you, like, I like looking at looking at, can they draft a wide receiver? Looking at that, it's plus 475, just look staring at the board right now. And again, reading all the tea leaves, could they trade back? And they've had two white, receivers out of their top, out of their seven top 30 visits right now, two of those have been wide receivers, been Chris Bell and Casey Concepcion and looking at both of those players,

okay, well, the bills, I mean, after their first round pick at 26, they don't have another freaking pick until 91. So if they're coming in, they're bringing these wide receivers in to talk to them, okay, well, they're not getting them in the third round. So if you want to attack that and say, okay, maybe they stick and pick at one. Maybe they trade back. But if they're feeling a need, whether it's those two wide receivers they've already had a visit with, and in the range that they go back into the first, top into the second, if I'm looking at the board right now, which right now the favorites are,

they go with a defensive end, a cornerback O line. That's a top three on the board. Wide receiver is almost, I mean, it's plus 475 plus 500 in some books. If they trade out of that, but they still take a wide receiver.

So it's really, it's building all of this stuff and taking all the information and siphoning it together when you're kind of looking at possible, trade scenarios and how to attack the market, whether it's first position picked, players going in the top five to top 10, what the board looks like because most of it's steamed and how you're kind of putting all that together. Simon, where I think you said, you know, three weeks out from the draft, maybe a little less. Have you seen since we spoke last week new markets that you've decided to bet anything that has gotten interesting for you? No, not really. Honestly, I've taken an early position a little bit what we talked about last weekend.

It's really now it's, you know, what are teams? Because, like, I always talk about this. If you just think at least half the teams NFL are dumb are going to do something stupid on draft day, you're usually proven right. Like, who saw Atlanta trading back into the first round to take a corner, right? It's these teams make these crazy moves. Like, I'm still not over the Jaguars.

I know the Jaguars got away with it with the Travis Hunter move because they did make the playoffs and they did get the wrong. right head coach. But you look back on that, it's like, was that not one of the stupidest trades we've ever seen moving up to take Travis Hunter? So that's the thing. These teams fall in love with these players and they do stupid stuff. And this draft, the more scouts I talk to, this isn't like a super deep class, right? But the top is really good. Like there's some really talented high level guys. Like guys, you want to go get in the top 20. So that's going to be interesting what teams are trying to move back up to go get either off its alignment,

a D-Lyman or what teams are going to sit back in a stick receiver. That's why I do like doing the running back in my receiver props because it's going to come down to that trade-in, right? My biggest burn I've ever had was T. Higgins. I swore T. Higgins was going to be taking the back of the first round. Like I thought the chiefs were going to take him, whoever was going to take them, and no one did. Everyone passed on him.

I think he fell to the second or third pick, or maybe it was the first pick in the second round. That cost me a ton of money, but I was proven right. in his career, like T. Higgins was a first round talent. My board wasn't wrong. So that's a tough part too where it's like I'm doing self-scouting. I'm going off other people's draft boards. Sometimes you can have the right read, but the teams just don't, it doesn't fall in the place that way, right?

The team that trades back in the first round, they took an offensive tackle. They didn't take that six receiver that we needed to win our bed. So that's why, like I always say, you want to get the plus number to hedge against that long term. It's like, sure, I got burned that year. This year, I already have a plus 180 bet on over five and a half receiver. Like that's how you ate away at that big, that juice over the years. And it's the same thing this year. Like the more stuff I see, it seems like more teams are desperate for that receiver

at the back end of this round. Like there are six, potentially seven first round receivers like that people have talked about. It's really, it's a good receiver class chat. So that's why, you know, like Derek talking about, that's a good position to take. You want to take a position on that number, five and a half at a plus number because we're seeing we don't know who the six or seventh receiver might be. And that's exactly what you want.

You don't want it just to be one guy dictated if we're going to win our bet. You want there to be maybe two guys that teams can fall in love with and their fight for the end of the first round. So like I said, that's really important stuff. You're building heavy positions in the draft. You really want to know with those exact things. You want to know, are there seven, eight receivers that people love? Or is this a weak class?

Are there five definite first round perceivers and then one maybe guy? Because if there's one maybe guy, I honestly wouldn't make this bet. But the fact that they say there might be two, maybe even three other guys that could sneak into the end of this first. round, Chad. That to me is like, how do you not take a position on this bet? It's just, it feels like there's tons of upside there with little downside at a plus number. Derek, man, got to give yourself out. Eric, before we get out of here, get the last word. Any new markets, anything that popped up that was intriguing to you in the last seven days.

The only other thing, and again, following breadcrumbs with some of the top 30 visits and talking about bringing this back to teams that have only one pick, like are picking the first first round, but then don't pick again into the third round. The commanders are very interesting. So I'm taking a sprinkle because right now with the seventh overall pick, a lot of people are mocking them like defensive players, whether it's a lot of its sunny styles, a lot of its edge and a lot of it's because you look at their depth chart, it is bereft of wide receiver talent.

There is nothing outside of Terry McLaren. Like we're talking about Luke McCaffrey and who knows what and Chigacancoe catching passes from Jayden Daniels this year. So I've taken a sniff on them take impossible because if you look at a wide receiver, or at least like there's a few different ways to look at this. So top 30 visits they've had right now with guys that could go inside that top 10 range at the seventh overall pick. They've met with Bichael Lemon, Mansour Delane, and Carnell Tate.

You're getting good numbers on each one of those guys. Like Carnell Tate's plus 400. If he goes inside the top five and stuff like that, he might not even be on the board. So that brings in somebody like a Mikhail Lemon who is at freaking plus 1,600 right now. So if you want to take a position on that, I'm not saying I'm going out and bet one, two units on it, but like a half a unit, fine. Like at plus 1,600, definitely. And Mancer Delane, like, again, matching up their depth chart, they've added defensive line help.

They have been asking their corners to play out. Like Mike Sanders still is not a perimeter corner. Put him back to nickel. They still have a need. And a lot of what Dan Quinn wants to do, whether it's own coverage, man coverage stuff. Marshon Lattimore was cooked. He couldn't do that. Mancer Delane to go at pick seven is plus 500. So whether you wanted to spray the board with this,

you wanted to take a position, whether it's Carnell Tate at plus 400 at pick seven, Delane at plus 500, or you want to go at the long shot of Mikhailim and at plus 1,600? Because, again, a lot of what I'm hearing out there is Carnel Tate could go higher than what people are expected. I push back on that a little bit because I'm like, dude, he's always been a top 10 pick.

of we talking about top 10 or now top five. I mean, you can make a case for the Giants. You can make a case for the Tennessee Titans to take him at four or five. If that's the case, he's off the board. And then if Michael Lemon is sitting there and he's at the top of the board, and we've already seen Adam Peters and company value the type of skill set of somebody that can play the underneath, get yak yards with them bringing in Debo. Unfortunately, Debo is not Debo of prime part of his career at this point.

So there's a lot of proof of concept as well as reading some of the T-League. of taking positions on a number of guys at pick seven. Derek Brown, bringing it. You are this podcast's number one overall draft pick for draft. Covered fantasy pros podcast, our friends at the volume. Listen, thanks for coming on, brother. You're going to come on again. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast, network, watch or listen on YouTube

at Sharper Square like this. video, subscribe to the channel. Download us some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. In yesterday's draft, everybody's sizing up the winners and the losers.

The winner yesterday was honesty. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it out. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions.

Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an acapella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Conky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers.

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