The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL Draft Betting Update: Rueben Bain, Ty Simpson Odds & More

Episode Date: April 16, 2026

The first round of the 2026 NFL Draft is now one week away, as betting expert Chad Millman and professional gambler Simon Hunter welcome back NFL Draft betting guru Derek Brown of FantasyPros. As new betting options continue to emerge, today our trio examines the impact of the latest draft news on the market overall. University of Miami defensive end Reuben Bain has become embroiled in a controversy surrounding a fatal car crash from 2024, with timing reminiscent of Laremy Tunsil's draft saga 10 years ago. We also have prices posted on Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson's landing spot in the draft, with 20 teams currently listed at 100-1 odds or higher. Plus, we hear more picks and predictions from Derek and Simon as sportsbook operators prepare to open the floodgates of NFL Draft props. #Volume -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the volume podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my. confidre professional better Simon Hunter and we're not even waiting to bring him in our draft expert from a fantasy pros football podcast also on the volume our good buddy Derek Brown my man also hello Simon

Chad how we doing I'm pretty good man how are you good had a had a busy weekend and you You go to Coachella. Tell me all about it. Well, I think I'd have to say that for another show. I would say the hype of it's a lot of money and a waste of money to a lot of people. Totally agree with for someone like me that wants to see, you know, Justin Bieber and Moby in the same day, you can't beat it. It's a bizarre festival. And you can see any act you want to see. And yeah, I had a good time.

And literally flew home and then went to the Flyers last night in the Flyers. one in overtime, the clinch a playoff berth for the first time since 2020. So, yeah, I had a hell of a weekend shed. Dude, I was in, you know, I was in Palm Springs at the end of February. And where I stayed, we had a house that we rented. Literally, I did not know this. It was across the street from Coachella,

like where that whole polo grounds is, literally across the street from Coachella. And the idea of now that I can visualize what Coachella is and where it is, the fact that it's in that little area, like in this little town that is this kind of like upscale random town outside of Palm Springs. And that is where the entire culture of Coachella exists. Derek, I don't know if you've ever been to it, been to it. If you know anything about it, but it's fucking wild. Man, I've never been to Coachella. Never had a chance to get out there. But I'm an old school emo scene kid, a lot of warp tour years and some broken ribs from crowd surfing under my belt. So I never went to Coachella, but I've definitely partaken of the concert scene and the, the tours in the summer.

Simon, did you see Billy Corrigan from Smashing Pumpkins on stage with, I forgot he was with, when you were there? Tonight, tonight, my friend. Yeah, I saw it. It was so good. He is amazing. Yeah. Honestly, there was a couple of, like, random, really.

good ones. I'm a big EDM guy. Like I saw Fat Boy Slim. I never saw him before. He was pretty incredible. I don't even remember him from back in the 90s. Of course, yeah. Yep.

We're old enough, Simon. The funny thing is like in the moment, the girl I was with, she was the one that really pushed me to do it. And like, I'm not, the festival days have passed me by, especially that. I slept in a car for two nights.

It's worth it. I know it's really expensive and it's become this like, you know, supermodel. Instagram type of thing. Yeah, there are some really hot women there. Everyone there is very good looking. I agree with that. But if you just love music, you can see, I saw probably 30 bands I've wanted to see all in a weekend. So it was pretty sweet. The way they had set up there, the festival. And like you

said, it's in a desert. So if you don't have any type of rain or wind or anything like that, it's really sweet. Like perfect weather. Yeah, amazing setup. And yeah, Justin B. Br. I don't know if you heard about it. It was a bizarre experience in my entire life. He basically, he doesn't own the rights to any of his music anymore. I think he's so much in the catalog. He had to play, he had to play his music through YouTube. It was

crazy. People were hating it like it was a lazy concert. Again, I'm not a big believer fan. Every girl around me was crying. So you might not like it, but the women were his fans and I guess the guys were his fans, it was heaven to them. And I have to say he's an incredible performer. So yeah, check it off the list. I never have to see

Justin Bieber ever again. You slept in your car for two nights? Not my car, her car. Yeah, we just basically... A car, though. A car. Yeah, if you want to get a camera... By the way, Derek, nice catching up.

The keep there wasn't, whether it was your car or someone else's car. Yeah, you sleep in a car. Like, what are we talking about this? It's like a compact. Are you sleeping in a Prius? Are we going SUV here back C? What are we doing here? No.

Air mattress? I mean, come on, Simon. She had a Tesla. But it's basically if you want to rent that house that Chad had, it's like 500K for the weekend. Yeah, it's crazy. You have your own little camp with your car parked up. It's another cup of grand. If you just want to sleep in your car and that's parked in the road, it's free.

So, yeah, that's what we did. Again, God bless her. I was the one that was, you know, eating food and letting her rip all night when she was just normal girl. So the windows are cracked. And yeah, again, it's rough, but that's life going to these concerts. and trying to save a buck because it costs i'm not even joking it costs 3k for general omission did you go like full camp out style you got like the george foreman plugged at the back and stuff yeah exactly and like i i i use a bottle of water to shower it was uh oh my god that is unreal

that's going back to old school like when you're 20 years old and you just fucking go for it and you have that memory forever i i like there's no way I can rough it like that anymore. You can do one day. You couldn't make it one day, Chad. One day in and out, I think you could do. But yeah, the weekend, I said that to her, I think, I said, this is my last weekend doing a festival. I can't do three days of this.

It was too much. Well, look, there's a lot of news going on with the draft, specifically. The big news is Ruben Bain. And what has come out about his traffic accident in which somebody was killed. And conveniently, coincidentally or not, this news is now coming out now. And look, it has the, for draft old heads like me, it has the sort of same markings and trajectory as Warren Sapp, right? Where Warren Sapp, when he came out in the draft, he was considered a top five pick, a Hall of Fame caliber talent, defensive, interior defensive lineman from the University of Miami. Miami. And there were rumors, this is how times were back then, that he was smoking weed. And so he

dropped from like top five, I think, to 12th or something like that, went to Tampa Hall of Fame career. Now these things are coming out about Ruben Bain right before the draft. Derek, we have been talking about him potentially being top four, maybe going to the Jets, even. This whole thing is fishy to me. Like if you want to talk about conspiracies, this whole thing has conspiracy written all over it to me and I can't figure out who wins by having something like this leak from an NFL point of view. Yeah, I mean, you could bring up the sap stuff. You could bring up previous years of Larry Tunsell. You can go to even more previous of very similar situation. And, you know, again, not making light of like the horrificness of some of these, you know, stories and stuff like

that, but also Jalen Carter of previous years, like numerous stories that all of a sudden just leak out like around the NFL draft. And the other thing about, you know, about it that that's going, has been reported, but going underreported as well as this was news to NFL GMs and stuff like going back into December and January. A lot of other people have already reported that they have this news in their hands behind closed doors like around the senior bowl and stuff. So now that it's like breaking national news and then you got certain outlets and institutions like continuing to just keep it in the news cycle. It's like it came out and then they're still doing pieces on it. And it's like, okay, like we know the details. We

it's pretty easy to see what you're what you're doing here like okay fine you want to report on it then report on it and then move on and stuff but i do think that there's a certain stink of this coming out right now um and how this you know impacts his first round draft status i still think he goes in the first round and you know add this it it kind of builds the totality of things it's like short arms um and the all field stuff and the things coming out and maybe that slides him from being in top five pick to a top 12 pick. I still think he goes at least somewhere in the middle of the first round, like at his floor if this truly does impact him.

I don't think it impacts him at all. I agree. And if I'm an NFL team, I, and I'm drafting later, you can hope. But I, like if I need a guy like that,

and I'm a huge Ruben Bain fan, I saw what he did to Indiana. I watched Miami games this year. He was a force. I mean, he completely changed games on his own. And I think that there is a lot to be said when you were drafting players for what they've put on tape beyond anything else. That should be what we're drafting them on. And everything else is kind of bullshit, right?

And so the fact that he was as dominant as he was, I would still want to grab him. And I would see this for what it is, which feels like somebody drafted in. 10 to 15 leaking this and hoping that they will be able to get him now. I would not be put off by this in any way, especially since he played an entire year played great. I have no idea what the story is behind the scenes. It doesn't really matter. Not afraid of taking this guy with a premium pick.

The other thing about it behind the scenes is none of us are in the rooms with teams talking to him and getting a true sense of his character. And that's the one thing that like, you know, we talk about prospects where they could go and stuff, but none of us are in those rooms. We might get information after the fact, but this might be something that impacts him to certain teams because they just don't want the headache of anything off field or bump him down. But a lot of teams, once they meet with him and stuff,

and they get a sense of who he is, his character, how he carries himself on the field and off the field. It's, I'm not going to say it's a nothing burger, but a lot of teams are going to not disqualify him because of any of this. Simon? Yes, it's tough. It is really tough because it's all about what he is like in the immediate process, right, how he does there. And what we heard from Carter, the reason he dropped was some teams felt like he wasn't mature, right?

They interviewed him, we're like, I just don't like how this kid has handled this at all. It might be a totally different scenario at this time. So, Chad said it, like we know the talent level. This kid is probably a top four, top three pick talent level. Could he drop? Sure, but I don't see him being outside the top 10. but this is definitely something that some teams will view negatively, obviously. I do think some teams where, you know, say it was the Raiders,

the number one pick and there was no Fernandez-Mendoza, I have a hard time is that team, that organization, where they are taking a guy like him. So, yeah, I do think for some teams that might matter, but overall, if you have a veteran leadership, especially defensively, I would bring that guy in a heartbeat, especially at a discount. So, yeah, at the end of the day, it is a business, and you might not agree with him morally,

and he might be a bad person, but he could have matured, he could grow up. We all know, like college kids with a lot of money, they're going to do dumb shit and make stupid mistakes. It's all about you think he can grow out of that person. And everything I've seen from him, it seems like he has adjusted and kind of grown from that whole experience. So I do give him the benefit of the doubt.

But I know some teams, Chad, honestly, by closed doors, they're like, man, this is, they've honestly known about this for over a year. Yeah. You're still like, I don't know if they could see him being the number one, number two pick, but still be in top five. I still think that's realistic possibility. Maybe there's a little bit of value now. Maybe that's better.

I was just looking at the odds, as we're kind of discussing this, plus 350, what I'm looking at to be drafted top five. But I think the books are also telling us the odds of him being drafted top Tim are minus 300. So, you know, this is what it needs to say. A little drop, maybe a little drop. Yeah. I would, I don't know. I would take the plus 350.

Okay. You know? Why not? Take a fire. I don't mind it. Go against the grain a little bit. There's another market that came out that the other quarterback that everyone is talking about in this draft, Ty Simpson. Derek said it really well a few weeks ago, kind of drafting the helmet, meaning you're taking the guy who played for Alabama.

and there are now prices posted for all 32 teams to take him. A lot that are 100 to 1. Arizona and the New York Jets are the favorites. Simon, let's start with you. Any long shots here that you think are worth taking a flyer on? Either what you're hearing, good fit, places you think Ty Simpson might be a good shot and it's a good bet to make. probably can get burned on it again but I might like we I might throw a little bit on the Rams to take them it just feels like a fun bet that could possibly happen but let's give props to Derek again here it's down to let's see the update line it's the over under now one and a half quarterbacks in the first round when Derek said not to take it it was minus 250 to the over one and a half it is now down to minus one 30 to the over one and a half chat and a lot of people that reach

out and asked about why this movement happened. And we can talk about all the lines that have moved. Honestly, I can't believe it, but Peter Schrager moves the market more than anyone else that puts out mock drafts right now, Chad, which is crazy to think, but Peter Schrager is that locked in. And I think enough betters now respect his opinion,

enough that they do move of what he says. He did not have Ty Simpson the first round. And that moved the market huge. Like it was, I think our last year I said it was minus 170 or minus, or minus 180 first round over one and a half quarterbacks. Like I said, now it's down to minus 130. He ended up putting price that second running back I told you about.

He ended up putting him at Seattle at the 32nd pick, Chad. So now what I gave out a plus 550 over one and a half running backs, it's now down to plus 400. Again, this is all Peter Schrager. Like Peter Schrager has totally moved the market. Why receivers, I believe he had six in the first round. Now that was plus 190. it's now down to plus 140 plus 135 over five and a half receivers.

So like we talked last week about following these mock drafts. Peter Schrager put out his first mock. I don't believe he puts out another one until the day before the draft. You got to be on it. Like clearly this man is plugged in and the market is moving with him. So yeah, Derek with the Tye Simpson call saying he doesn't believe it was a first rounder. Like I said, I agree with him. I think he's a second rounder.

I did not think the market would move the way it's moved with him. So I am tempted now, Chad. so much over one and a half. I'm tempted to do it, but if you want to do it with like, man, Mitchell's putting our chat, which is like betting these individual teams, I think that's really fun too. I just because I put so much money, I'd rather play the safe market.

I'll probably just do the over one and a half, which at this point, minus 1.30, I got to do it, Chad. I've been waiting. I've been on the sideline, but I just think it's too tempting these teams to get that fifth year on the contract, right? Even if I said, I think he's a second round quarterback, to trade up into pick 32 or 31, and you get that fifth year guaranteed on Dyson.

Just in case he hits, that's a big deal to me. So I can't believe it's moved this much, but it's too tempting. I can't pass on it, Chad. Derek, you're laughing. Yeah, I mean, I'm looking back at all the draft bets that I made right now on March 30th, it was plus 200 for under the one and a half,

and now seeing that line movement all the way down to plus 100 is wonderful. And then this last, week I was talking to people that I trust around the league and all I was hearing was he's going to be a second round pick. He's going to be a second round pick. And yeah, Uncle Mitch here was definitely on point with the odds here. Like, I mean, look, I would love to tell everybody a lot of long shots. If I was going to take any long shot on a landing spot, it'd be the Cleveland Browns at plus 1,100 here, only because they've done a ton of work. The two teams that I've heard with people that I've talked with, Arizona and they're in the clear favorite here, which, you know,

Do I want to bet it at plus 130? No, because of the volatility and how many ways this could go. If I was going to bet anything right now, it would be the under one and a half, but also, like, if I was going to take a long shot, it would be the Cleveland Browns. From what I've heard from people, the Arizona Cardinals love him.

So I think the market is right here. So I think there's, you know, angles to attack, but I do think he's going to be a second round pick when it's all said and done. It's so interesting. You look at historically a guy like Ty Simpson, he's no different than any other dude who didn't play much, who was lightly recruited, who had one good year at the big school and the right system. And there are these NFL guys who are so freaking smart, who know NFL systems so well.

And there's all this news, Arizona Cardinals. and they got Mike LaFleur, who's supposed to be a brilliant offensive mind, who's off the McVeigh and the Matt LaFleur tree. This guy is willing to bet his career on Ty Simpson. That's what this comes down to every single time. It is these guys willing to bet their careers on total long shots. Simon, it's worse than being a professional better.

Not a move I'd make. I don't get it. I'm right there with you, Chad, where it's like, you know next year's class is stacked. Why not kick the count down the road? Like, we talk all the time, you need to nail it. Like, if you take the wrong quarterback, I can set you back three to four to five years or totally, totally destroy your organization. I mean, Detroit Lions, God bless them.

They have, what, three playoff wins in 67 years? And it's like, little did they know that golf would be their savior, right? It's like that's how important is to find the right quarterback with the right coaching staff. And I look at Arizona, they don't, they maybe they have found the right coaching staff. They don't have the team to support a young quarterback right now. So to me, they're the perfect team to keep filling holes. And then next year, which is we expect to be a loaded class for quarterbacks, go get one of the top guys.

Like it just doesn't make sense. Like you know as a Bears fan, you guys, as much as respect to give the Justin Fields, you saw immediately the difference between Caleb Williams and Justice Fields, Chad. As a fan, you saw the difference immediately. I mean, think about that. Think about if you guys would have kept Justin Fields and traded out of that pick on Caleb Williams. Like, it's just you can't even imagine doing that. That's how stupid it would be.

That's how stupid it feels of these teams that would reach to take Simpson. Like, I'm right there with Derek. I just, as good as this kid's upside could be, to me, his peak upside is Brock Purdy. Is Brock Purdy really worth? mortgaging your future on like i like brock purdy but i rather have a body typeer for manna mandosa right big as hell built like a ship brick house right that's going to be able to take hits we've seen purdy not hold up that's my same consider of this kid tie simpson i don't think you can hold up he hasn't taken enough reps in college it's i'm with you the whole thing is bizarre i'm just

i'm going based off these teams i think are going to panic come come the draft day that we always see where right organizational pressure your owner especially Especially Arizona. They have a bad ownership. Who knows if they're calling down the front office saying, I want this kid. This kid's still there, pick 30, trade up. I want him. So that's what I'm banking here is a stupid organization that stays stupid and make stupid moves. And that's what I'm banking on.

I think Derek is thinking way too sensible. He's thinking like I totally agree with him. We've seen these draft, man, these teams, they're not sensible. They panic. And it happens every year, right? It just takes one or two teams to fall in a love with a guy that makes something stupid happen. That's what I think might happen here. If you want to take the swing on a quarterback in this class,

why take Ty Simpson in the first or second round when you could take somebody like a Garrett Nussmeyer and maybe round three or round four? Or my guy Cole Payton, if you wanted to go even the project route. Like you got Brissette Minchew there to, like nobody's rushing you. But once you draft the quarterback inside of those top two rounds, the clock starts, guys. Like you're tied to that guy. like how many guys outside of Chris Ballard and Shane Stig get to like reset and get to draft another quarterback or go through all of this again?

Like usually the way this goes is you draft the quarterback. If he sucks and he fails, you're gone. You don't have one of these 32 jobs anymore. So is that really the bet that you want to make? I wouldn't be doing that. But I, you know. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor Hard Rock Bet, Florida's Sports. Spring is in the air, and that can only mean one thing.

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Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name? Hey Jonas, guys. I honestly don't remember.

I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

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This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending. Opinions are flying. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines.

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She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lerner Rabakina is. arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. All right. So this is a really interesting topic because the shelf life for an NFL coach is so limited and it is so tied.

to a quarterback. And the amount of convincing that you have to do as a leader of an NFL team to communicate that to players, to communicate that to the player who will be your quarterback, to communicate confidence

to the public, through the media, to fans. Like Seth talked about this last week, you know, Simon. Like, when you were a quarterback, you are representing a multi-billion dollar business.

Same thing with a company. coach, you are representing a multi, multi, multi billion dollar business that is in your hands. It's why coaches come and go so quickly, why you would ever do anything where you have to convince yourself that you can, you can see it. Like if you, if you squint, you can see it. It just makes no sense. As a professional better, I would bet that, you know, you got to win 53% to make any money as professional better. I would bet your odds are better as a professional better than it is as someone trying to predict what quarterback is going to do well in the NFL.

Yeah, that's fair, but it's also, I do get respect to NFL because what we have seen is the first-hand quarterbacks do work out right. When you just look at a hole, they are pretty good at evaluating the talent in the sense that they know which guys have the talent. The hardest part for these teams is what you just said, to pull the actual trigger. Like they talk themselves out of guys more often than not, right? And you see it time and time again, like I always will always go back. And I hate crushing them, Bill Pollian.

But the Lamar tape is to me one of the most embarrassing things you've ever seen. When he said Lamar Jackson should be a wide receiver, that's going to live in infamy. That will always haunt that guy because it was such a bad take. The NFL, all these teams agreed with him, though. Lamar Jackson was a 30-second pick and I've won two MVP. So you see it happen a time, Kat. But these teams, they talk themselves out of players.

More often, they talk themselves into players. And, you know, what I view so interesting is that we've had a nice run here of these quarterbacks, right? Like, if I still at the time, people are like, well, there's such a low level of talent of quarterback playing the NFL. This is the best it's ever been. We've never had more talented players at the quarterback position that we have right now. Any given year, there's 10 to 15 guys you would be happy to have as your quarterback on your

team. people forget we had thin years there right we had years where it was still brady it was still ben rothusberg it was still philip rivers being these top tier quarterbacks and then the springling was erin rogers and a little bit of stafford it was just very lean and now we have so much talent hell people are going to be writing books about joe burrow and you know josh allen if they can't win the big one or lamar jackson because that's how high the talent level is right now we have so much talent so to me these teams that's why i don't get the tight simpson thing it's It's like, does Ty Simpson move the needle to compare to a guy like Josh Allen or compared to a guy like Mahomes?

He's every going to be able to be close to those guys. If the answer is no, then what's the point? Like you said, Chad, your mortgage in your whole entire future. You're the GM. This is your guy. This is your move. Your one move. Your one shot.

And I loved it last year. I think it was the Jets GM was talking about how his kid was giving him a hard time to move up in the draft and to go get. I don't know if I remember was CJ Stroud, wherever it was. And he was like, no, we're going to hold Pat, right? Now look at the Jets. It's three years later, two years later. They still don't have their guy. And that's the issue. I think that GM's been fired at this point, too.

So it's like, to me, these GMs, everything like that, it's a little bit what you're talking about, Chad. I would never, I never want to take the guy in the second round to give myself the ego boost that. If I'm right, I'm right in a big way, right? It's a huge upside. I'd always go the safe route and pick my spot, right? You really want to lock in and take the guy you truly believe in.

And we've seen it time, time again. We all get sold fulls goal chat. And the biggest draft class I always remember always be that Lawrence, Lawrence, who was a trail aance that went. And then, you know, Zach went, second pick. And, you know, that draft class, we love them, right? Like, oh, my God, we have three, four guys. Mack Jones was part of it, too.

We have three, four guys that could be legit studs, Justin Fields. Nope. End up just being Trevor Lawrence. The rest kind of fell by the wayside. Now Mack Jones might be a guy still, but... All right, let me cut you off there. Let me cut you off there because I did a little math while you were talking.

I just went back. First run quarterbacks picked since 2020 through 24. So I didn't do this past year because the jury's out on Cam Ward and, right? 24, Caleb, Jaden Daniels, Bo Nix, Drake May, Michael Pennix, J.J. McCarthy. Four out of six, you could say those franchises are feeling good, right? 2023, Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, maybe one out of three, right? CJ, but Derek's putting zero up for CJ. So we're saying zero in that one, right?

And I don't disagree. Like, CJ was a ball or year one, year two and three, not so much. 2022, Kenny Pickett, O for one. Okay? 2021, 2021. Trevor Lawrence, Simon, to your point, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin, Justin, Ray Lance, Justin Fields, Mack Jones. One for five.

Okay. And then 2020, Joe Burrow, who, by the way, Simon, you still think the jury's out. Like, if the best he ever does is that Super Bowl season, then you could be right. Tua, Justin Herbert, who continues to be an all-stats guy, he's turning into Dan Fouts. and then Jordan Love, who I think we can all agree is on a good path. So that's two for four.

Of those four drafts, that's eight of 19. Well, Gail Hurards in the second round, but I agree. That was just the first round segment. Right, that was just first round. So that's eight of 19. It's below 50%. Like, it is a crash.

No, it's hard. I was going to push back and say, we're making the case that GMs don't talk themselves. into stuff. I was going to push back and say they talk themselves into stuff all the freaking time with the quarterbacks. Like this happens every year. Like we push up questionable guys. We didn't even bring up like Mitch Trubisky. I'm sorry, Chad. Oh my God. Previous years where like you've got the small starting experience and it's like there's so many red flags and they're just like, I don't care. It's all good. Beer goggles on. Let's

go, baby. Yeah, I don't know if it's arrogance or desperation. You know, I can fix this guy. I've been in that spot. I've hired people. Like I've thought, oh, I'm good enough to teach this guy how to do something. And because you've had a little bit of success, you get excited, you're new, you talk someone into something. I mean, this just has, this has disaster written all of it. It's a very interesting exercise.

You're better off being professional better than you are being an NFL head coach. You don't think it's bad ownership, Chad? Like, to me, I look at the bears. your team, think about how many forced quarterbacks they took and how many quarterbacks they passed on until the owner finally took a step back and let a GM actually run. Totally true. And the Jets, again, I couldn't believe it.

Me and you, neither of us could believe. We could not believe Zach Wilson. Yep. This kid from Utah was going to go to New York, an undersized guy, and save that organization. So that's what I mean. Like, I just, I'm right there with you, child. I just think it starts at the top.

It's these bad owners that just totally nuke their franchise because they're successful in some aspect of business and they think they can translate to football when it has nothing to do with football. So that's what, again, Derek, have I talked to you into Ty Simpson in their first round? You've heard how these GMs and these owners are. Can I get you there at minus 130?

No, you can't give me there minus 130. And the other thing I was going to bring up here too is throughout this entire conversation, Dave Teper says hi. Like, can we remember? everything that he's trading away for Bryce Young? Like, just the betting on outliers of outliers of outliers. And it's like, oh, this will work out.

History says no. History says no. Yeah, it's just astonishing to me how little owners and GMs and coaches, for that matter, pay attention to what's happened in the past. And they clearly get in their own way. At some point in the chain, Simon, you're totally right. It's an owner who comes down over the top and says, we've got to do this. Because you know GMs and coaches would say no.

So now of a sudden is the Bidwell family, you know, the family that bought their franchise for $5,000 in 1932 because it was going out of business. And the patriarch of that family who was connected to Al Capone, who owned racetracks, throughout all of Chicago, going back almost 100 years, a big better bought the Cardinals, and now all of a sudden they have been suffering because they have not been able to get that family out of the business for 100 years. We're also kind of laying out the entire script of draft day,

are we not? Yes, it's true. Are we not also discussing that? Which, by the way, that's a yearly tradition. I will be watching it the night before the draft. I don't care. Everybody can talk about how bad of a movie it is. It's still fun.

Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally.

calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.

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By the way, when I was just going on that riff about the Cardinals that reminded me, here's a stat that is crazy. So, you know, I'm finishing this book. And Derek, I've been writing this book about this world of sports betting that I got to finish, right? The connections, and we've talked about this on the show, between sports betting and and professional sports, going back to the beginning of professional sports, really. It's so interconnected because anyone with any money who had cash that wasn't, you know,

donating to civic institutions like museums or parks or preservation of some kind, they were the people who were bookies and action junkies, and they had cash to buy professional sports, which none of the, you know, the Vanderbilt and the Rockefellers were interested in. They thought it was a joke. So a lot of times in the early days, professional franchises were owned by bookies and professional betters, including the now Arizona Cardinals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the New York football giants.

Those three franchises were bought for a combined $8,000. They are now worth a combined $22 billion, owned by the same families. Isn't that wild? I do feel like you're burying the lead a little bit, Chad. is chapter 18, how you took $15,000 and lost at all in sports betting, though? Is that the, no? That chapter doesn't come into play because sports betting's the best. Nobody loses.

Absolutely. Wait, is that about me? Did I lose $15,000? No, you didn't see everything with the guy that was given $10,000 and then we lost all of it. That the McKay Coppin story in the Atlanta. Yeah, we haven't even talked about that one. Simon, did you see that story? Jeez, man.

Yeah, I refuse to. talk about. I don't want to give him any like. People ask me on Twitter about it. I was like, it's everything I hate. So I will pass. I have a lot of thoughts on it. And I feel like in media, the Capital J journalism community has a fetish with writing about how easy it is to lose money in professional sports betting and go into a rabbit hole of nightmares and how this is terrible for society. And I will tell you, I don't know any betters who say sports betting is good for society. But they all think sports betting is bad for society. But they all aren't addicts who are losing their money who do it as a gimmick who have never bet before

and then have to ask their priest to allow them to do it and then get $10,000 from somebody else and make terrible decisions. Two things can be true. this was an idiotic gimmick and sports betting doesn't do much for society. But just because it doesn't do much for society, it doesn't mean that you always have to be losing all of your money when you do it. And I feel like there are a lot of, and this goes back to the beginning of sports betting coverage in the media.

Like people only want to cover it from a sensationalistic perspective. They don't want to cover it from a responsible perspective. And so the story's great, really well reported and well written. It's just a fucking gimmick that every other journalist has been doing for the past three years about sports betting. Couldn't say it any better. I'll just say I am one of the one percenters I believe betting is good for society. I wrote a book in my past life chat about caveman, the first bet ever plays. I bet you I can beat you in a race to that tree.

Yeah. Humans have been betting since the dawn of time. So I am one of the skewed people. I do think it's just a natural part of us, life, and it's fun. It's like life sucks for the most part. If something can distract you from all that and be fun, I'm about it. So yeah, like, again, I don't, I don't want to get, I get it. Chad, let's give the guy a little bit of light, but I haven't talked at all about it.

I don't want to give the guy light. Derek brought it up. It's my fault. It's my fault. I'll hold it. You said we didn't talk about on the show, and I'm, I'm glad we had it because I just, as soon as I saw it, it made my blood boil. I hate it.

I was seething when I saw it on social media. It's just dumb. It's totally dumb. All right, guys, listen, we're, what are we, 12 days from the draft by the time. Derek is on the show again next time. All of the markets will be available. Derek, you just said something at the top of the show that I didn't want to lose the threat on, which is you've gone through all the markets.

What are the biggest moves? what are some of the changes since we started talking about it that you've seen that you've been tracking? I'm waiting for first position drafted markets on some of these teams. I think some of these teams, I mean, conveniently, you're not seeing certain teams listed. You know, with some of the news. One thing we didn't bring up is everybody, you know, talking about, okay, well, they traded Don Tavian Wick. so I am monitoring the Green Bay Packers market for first drafted. I think they're alive to take a wide receiver despite all the other holes.

They've been drafting wide receivers of the last few years. Besides that, it's just really monitoring it based off of news and the things that are coming out, whether it's looking at first position drafted by certain players or certain teams. The other ones are, we did get a few like the over-under spots of draft position markets like Casey Concepcion coming out unless I missed him in like first, second, 15th pass. The under at 26.5 at plus money. So looking for more of the draft position markets to drop. If we get an expansion of some of these second positions off the board

that are drafted, some of that stuff has come out. But really just, you know, how the markets are going to further expand because, again, a lot of teams aren't listed, a lot of players aren't listed. So I think hopefully the floodgates open up because I'm watching all of it. Simon Dantavian Wicks, Derek just mentioned it, traded from Green Bay to Philly. Green Bay's already gotten rid of Romeo Dobbs to New England. That has massive impacts for the Packers. What do you think all this signals for the Philadelphia Eagles? I don't know.

It was an interesting move because I actually think it's a good move. But I like him as a receiver. I don't really understood why Green Bay moved off from him where Golden's unproven. They don't really have a good receiving core in Green Bay. On the flip side, if A.J. Brown doesn't get traded on June 1st, and it's Wix, AJ, and Devote Smith, that's a pretty strong three, especially blocking-wise. Like, you know, he's a great blocker as well. So, yeah, the Eagles one kind of didn't make sense because all the rumors I heard all the past two weeks

where the Eagles were going to take a receiver in the first race. So maybe they still will and AJ's still going to get traded before the draft. It's just I never know how he's doing, how he's just always making random moves. And, you know, Jahad Doxon, I think we got him from was the commanders we traded. Yeah, yeah. Like, again, not the greatest biggest move ever. The guy had a huge catch in the Super Bowl. So it's like how he does all these weird moves and I don't really get it, but I'm going to trust him on this one.

Like to me, it's a good move for a green base standpoint. I don't really get it. maybe they just didn't view him as being reliable or some stuff behind the scenes. But yeah, to Derek's point, does that mean Green Bay is going to have back-to-back drafts taking a wide receiver in the first round? That would be shocked. That would literally blow my mind when they hadn't taken a ride receiver in the first round in 30, 40 years. So it's a golden last year? For the year before, sorry.

Yeah, I think that's right. Like all of a sudden could this be the Packers going heavy on receivers after ignoring it for, generations. All right. So like I said, 12 days out. Derek will be on again next week. We'll have a lot more markets that are finally posted. A lot more activity. We'll be getting all the intel on who's moving, who's not moving, where people are going, all that good stuff. Derek Brown, fantasy pros football podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. And for coming on the show, this has been Sharper Square. Part of the Volume Podcast Network, watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square, like this video, subscribe to the channel, download to some Spotify, Apple Pods.

Wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. Hello, you play to win the game. You don't play to just play it. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it out. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions.

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