The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL PLAYOFF BETTING PREDICTIONS

Episode Date: July 8, 2026

With NFL Training Camps opening later this month, hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter make their early NFL playoff bets in this episode sponsored by ZBiotics. Go to https://zbiotics.com/SHARPORSQUARE and use SHARPORSQUARE at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics. Every year, teams burst onto the scene. Last season it was the upstart New England Patriots led by Drake Maye. But are they set up to fail this season? What about Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals? Are the Cleveland Browns circling the drain after trading Myles Garrett, or could they surprise in the AFC? Plus, our guys take a long look at NFC contenders like the Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks, plus contenders-in-waiting like Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders. #Volume -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined as I am for every show by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better Simon.

Hello, Simon. Chad, as we turn this page after our brutal World Cup loss last night, thank God, we're only what, four weeks away from our first preseason game. I think Adam Shreftar tweeted, so it did what it needed to do. It killed us a month of time, and we only have to make another month work until we have some football. Look, it's been amazing. And, like, I really love the collective experience that everyone's been sharing with the

World Cup. It's been so much fun to watch, such a brutal loss last night. bad bad mistakes you know what I love about it uh I don't know if you can see this Simon I know you're wearing World Cup paraphernalia I right now I'm wearing a Tottenham hot spur t-shirt and I'm going to tell you why I'm wearing that because I was with my my family my sister and her family and my wife and our two boys went away for a few days and me and my two guys were hanging out and we were all talking about the World Cup. And, you know, my younger son is a huge sports fan. My other son has never been a sports fan, but he's gotten really into the World Cup. Even before he was like,

I feel like I love soccer. I want to know more about the World Cup. So we've been talking about it for a while. And then we were all hanging out while we were away. And they were both like, I wish we had a way to engage with soccer, like a soccer team to root for all year long. And we settled on, you know, EPL and we decided these were the criteria. You can tell me what you think of this. We decided we had to go with a team in London because if we visit London, we want to be able to go watch the game. We decided we didn't want to do like, you know, Arsenal or Chelsea because we want to root for teams that like are bandwagon teams that's like rooting for the cowboys in the U.S. We wanted a team that was a lot like rooting for the Cubs or the Bears. And so we settled on Tottenham, Hotspur. And I've gone through the

history. I love the history. I love that Hotspur is the name of a knight from Shakespeare. I love that it was started by schoolboys hanging out together. I love that they go up and down, up and down, but they're kind of hard luck losers. So I'm all in. We're all in. Go Spurs. Go. Yeah, I would say that's a pretty American team, the Spurs. So I would say you're very on brand. Most Americans in the try to find a club. Yeah, I know. It's kind of funny where Americans, for some reason, gravitate towards the Spurs.

I don't know if it's for their jerseys or whatever. Wow, that's so interesting. For a second thing, I thought you're going to say West Ham, which was going to get me really fired up. That's a true. No one knows underground great London club. But yeah, like you can't go wrong. my like we talk about it my this world cup honestly has been a dream as a fan i wanted americans be engaged they're heavily engaged i mean seeing cowher do 40 minutes on soccer insane insane

it's insane i don't know if how long people have found cowher's career but you would have told cowher 10 years ago he would spend 40 minutes freaking no way never never never so this is what i want this has been my dream and um i talk about it's a culture thing right america you just got you just got the crappy smack daddy by Belgium. That was the worst game we could possibly play. I wouldn't be so upset, overrated. It just, it happens, right? We're playing against a team that has players who've played in these big games before.

USA doesn't have that. That's part of the growing process, part of building the culture. But yeah, I always tell Americans, the biggest thing America is missing is we don't have our messy yet. We don't have our hairy king. We need a striker at top that has this God-given ability to score. And you've seen it. There's four or five guys in this world.

Cup that when they have that ball, it just feels like they're going to score. We've never experienced that as a country. So that's, I don't know if it's 20 years away. If it's 10 years away, maybe it's the next World Cup, Chad, but that's what we need as a country to move forward, right? This round of 16 buffer, we're going to keep hitting. Even if we won this game against Belgium, who is our next round against Spain? So it's a tough, it's tough right now, but as a fan, seeing America embrace it, see the

country embrace the World Cup. It's fun. as a gambler, it's on to bet on. And yeah, it's, like you said, it was just such heartbreak. I'm still not over it. Like, even last night, I could barely sleep where it's like, I thought we were going to win.

I really thought, honestly, we were going to be Belgium. So it's going to take me a little bit. Like right now, like Christian Polsick, I'm so bitter. I'm just really bitter. I don't want to say too much mean stuff. I'm trying to be positive about it, but they just laid down like a dead dog in that game. I'm so mad about how they played and how it all worked out.

But thank God we have football to talk about, brother. You mentioned Harry Kane, former Tottenham Hotspur Legend. Legend. Harry Kane? We do have football to talk about. We are going to talk about soccer. Next week, we're going to have Dubundo back on to talk some soccer. We're also going to have Sean Zorillo to talk about midseason baseball.

But this week, today, we are talking about some really cool NFL early prediction markets we can lean into. I don't mean prediction markets. I mean markets that hard rock bat has up right now, especially some playoff markets that we're going to give out some of our favorites on today. We have no episode on Thursday. Everyone's taking a little bit of a break. Next week, like I mentioned, we have Zerillo, we have Dubundo. After that, folks, all football all the time.

Beginning of July. Of football, Chad. Beginning July 21st, Ben Silak from ESPN. I love the guy. You guys, last year I mentioned his stuff on the show all the time, so I'm excited that he's going to be coming on on the 21st. Then it's our top 10 QBs episode. Then we'll go into our division by division preview episodes. Get freaking ready because the other football leaves and this football comes in.

Like I said, Hard Rock has a ton of markets out right now. Super Bowl conference and division futures. obviously, they got win totals. You can bet on every team's stage of elimination. You can bet on divisional finishing positions, exact order props, all that. So, Simon, we don't have to be that organized here. Why don't you kick it off? Before we jumped on the show, you had some ideas.

So what are some things you're thinking about? I know you mentioned the bears. Do you want to start with the bears? I don't know if you were just trying to sort of, you know, speak to my passions, or was the Bears a real thing? Or what do you want to start here? Let's start with the easiest exercise, which is every year, we look at last year's playoff teams. That should always be your baseline, right?

This is what the league is. There's a lot of turnover. There's a lot of people. Who's out? Exactly. Who's in, who's out? It's very dumb. It sounds very basic, but we have the data.

every year, three to four teams from the previous year won't make it. If you would have told me in Chad last year the chiefs can be one of those three or four teams, I would have been shocked. I think Chad would have been shocked. So that's the best part about doing this is like you really don't know. Like telling me the chiefs, the bills and the Ravens weren't going to win their divisions last year, I would have been pretty shocked. None of them won their divisions.

So just going back last year, the one seeds, if you remember, the Broncos and the Seattle. I don't know about you. Do you think both them are going to make? I think both them are going to playoffs, right? I do, but I will tell you this. I don't have a great feeling about the Patriots. I would not be, like, I'm a big believer in schedule, and I'm a big believer in the challenges of a new schedule.

It's why when we talk about the Bears, I'm not that high in the Bears going into this season. I think Minnesota's going to be better. I think Detroit's going to be better. I think Green Bay is going to be better. I think they've got a challenging schedule. I think the same thing about the Patriots. Like, obviously they got to contend with the bills, but they're going to have a much harder schedule this year.

If we're talking right off the top, I would, like, the Patriots, I got to find their odds here. 150 to miss playoffs. I would not be uncomfortable taking a little taste of the Patriots at plus 150. That's why we're doing this exercise, people. So, yeah, the Patriots, a two-seat from last year. So you have them out and just, let's just finish the AFC, the Steelers.

I think we both agree. if we're going to kick someone out, it's got to this day. Yes. They're at the back end. Chargers, Jaguars, you want to kick either of them out yet or no? Right. A little tougher on those two. So we'll keep them moving.

Yeah. The NFC also felt tough. It felt like the bears and the Panthers are the really two ones that jump out right away. Yeah. It seems you can easily see them missing the playoffs. Now, Packers, you know, they could. Eagles, they could, right? But just right away in the first two I looked at was Panthers.

and obviously, you know, we love the bears. That's what I want to start with you, Chad, with your bears. They're plus 105, which again, that's the book telling you, this is one of the teams on the outside looking in because what you just talked about. Everything broke their way. They got the two seed. Where are you at, Chad, plus 105 to make the playoffs? I would be betting against the bears to make the playoffs.

I am not high on the bears. Look, I was just in Chicago. Unfortunately, a close friend, his father, passed away. And so I was in Chicago and this guy, everyone who listens to the show knows my buddy Matt, his father passed away. And I grew up going to Bears games with Matt and his family because they had season tickets to the Bears for the entirety of my life. And so I went to every home game when I was growing up all through high school with Matt and his mom and dad. And his dad was such a rabid bears fan that it was a constant conversation. I know Matt and his dad and one of his three kids,

who was a massive Bears fan, they would text about the games all the time. And so I had a lot of bears talk this weekend. At one point when Matt's oldest kid was eulogizing his grandfather, he started talking about his love for the bears. And at one point, the grandson, who, did a magnificent job. Everyone was just so charmed by his eulogy and how well he did. Started talking about like he goes, but you know, I think we got our quarterback now. I think we're on the upswing.

This could be the year. And it's almost like for a second he lost himself and started to give a Bears sky report in the middle of the eulogy for his grandfather. But that's how much passion there is for this team in this city right now. Everywhere I went, every event I was at over the weekend with family. All anyone could do was talk about the bear. Bears. I hate to be the guy reigning on the parade, but I'm worried. I'm worried about this team.

I think there's too much competition. I think they had the exact right spot last year. Yeah, I just, I couldn't believe when I saw the number because I think that's very telling by the books, because that's, I feel like that's them saying, we'll take your sucker money because that's, they know how much money they're going to get from Bears fans. It's one of the biggest fan bases in the world. They're going to get a ton of it. I'm just shocked that they think the first year, yes, I agree they overachieved. But to me, if Caleb keeps progressing in this offense, you guys are going to have a stacked offense.

My question is your defense when it comes to the Bears. Like, Colson Loveland might be a top three tight end. We'll see where Luther can be a wide receiver position, but I am really excited about this Bears team if Caleb can take that next step. Because Caleb, all the town in the world, and you saw all those comebacks last year, can he be consistent for those first three quarters?

That's what was lacking. You guys were so inconsistent for the first three quarters those games. Think of all the rabbits you pulled out of his ass. I mean, all these games you guys came back in the fourth quarter. And that was your defense, too, insane amount of turnover. So Chad's right. Between the turnover luck, the overachievement, people expect them to miss it. I wouldn't touch this one. I'll be honest. I just, I don't like the number. It's, I wanted to bet on the yes. So I'm happy to hear you say no. So I'm happy to pass on it. So my first, first one that I jumped out.

You wanted to bet on them yes to make the playoffs for plus 105. Yes. Yeah, yes to make the playoffs. Okay. We already talked about the Rams to miss the playoffs. Wait, wait, hold on, hold on, because we highlighted the Patriots, we highlighted the Bears. Let's dip in for a second on the Panthers because you mentioned them. We've talked about them a lot on the show already and their season win totals, but it seems like you were hinting at, I just want to close the loop on this before we get to the Rams. You were hinting at the Panthers being a team that you could see not making the playoffs. I'm looking at their odds right now.

No to make the playoffs. They are at minus 300 to not make the playoffs. They're at plus 230 to make the playoffs. This correlates with a bet I want to make. I was going to go, I was going to come back to pitch. There's a bet a team I want to bet on making the playoffs, and that's the Saints. So everyone knows we love Shuck here. If we expect this, this Panthers team with the number one,

they won their division last year, sort of played in a first place schedule. It's easy to think they will take regression and miss the playoffs because of that. Who knows, right? They've done well this off season. Maybe Bryce Young does take the next step and they do week the playoffs. But just as a betting man, I don't like those odds. Like Chad just said, it's minus 300 to miss. I want to take whenever I'm looking at bed and these, I want a plus number.

If I'm being locking my money up for six months, that's why I go to the Saints with Shuck. The Saints have a pretty good defense. I liked it in the draft. They went after the wide receiver position. You know, we've talked a little bit about, you know, it's, who knows if shucks the real deal, right? Their schedule last year, Brooke, very favorable at him, but he didn't make big-time throws.

He did get more comfortable in Kellanmore's offense this season, went along at plus 200 for the fact that they're playing in weak division, the Bucks can still win the division. The States could steal that seventh seed. I don't hate those odds. So that's what I was going to tell of the Panthers, I can see them being one of the teams that move out.

The Bucks are a team that easily could move in. I think the Saints are a sneaky team that can move in as well. And the Bucks don't have that great of odds. So I prefer if I'm trying to placate in this, division in the NFC South. I like that, I like that St. odds at plus 200.

That's actually come down. A couple of books are shown plus 240, hard rock now plus 200. I like that. I like that a lot. Would you parlay, St. Yes, Panthers now?

I don't hate that. That's fun. That is fun. I wouldn't, we'll talk about it, but Chad knows I like to do, I like do divisional chalk when I do these type of parlays.

That's right. I got burned last. year, but it was the first year in five years I got burned by the chiefs. The chiefs were basically a lock for me. Every year I, like say I liked the Saints to win their division, I'd put them in a two team with the Chiefs. The Chiefs were just my anchor, just because every year the Chiefs always on the division, obviously it's a little different now, right?

That's kind of a toss. So we can close out with those type of bets. But yeah, I don't know if I had Parlay. You are getting great odds, but yeah, just for a standalone, I bet that Saints won. You were going to say about the Rams. Yeah, the Rams. the one just jumped out it's plus 350 to not make the playoffs like that's if they're plus 500 to win the Super Bowl or plus 350 to miss the playoffs that's the better option to take every time is to miss

the playoffs the odds all the things you need to break your away I get the hype is so peak right now they are a studded team they're incredible are they really that much better than the Seahawks the Eagles you know all the a couple of the 49ers these other teams in FCC The gap is not that wide. And the sports we're going to make it out that big because it's all built on hype and try to get the public to bet into it, right? Humans have a weird condition where if the Rams were 10 to 1, yes, people would be betting it. But because it's moved up so much, more people are betting it, right?

They're like, I don't want to miss more. It's going to keep moving. So to me, the odds have totally shifted them missing the playoffs. That's where the best money is. And Chad was on the last year. Stafford, as much hype and much love I give the guy, he's one. bad hit away his body has been through the ringer in Detroit he's not he's taking hits in the rams as well and he's had you know this popped out of his back he's had surgeries he's not this

young stud he's like 37 30 years old which on football years he's might as well be 50 with all the hits he's taken so um i know the hype Aaron Donald's now coming back supposedly like it's just building building building if you don't want to bet it right now maybe it gets a plus 375 before the season starts, but I just think the pros are going to come in and bet this down. I just can't see this getting more. So you do want to bet them to miss the playoffs. You want to parlay that with what Chad just talked about, the Bears or the Panthers or maybe the Patriots.

Those are all fun bets. You're getting now, instead of having, you know, three to one, you can make that a 10 to one bet, make it a parlay. So there's a lot of fun stuff you can do with this Rams and miss the playoffs. Who do we think, before we go to the break, I just want to, I want to run through all the playoff teams and make sure we're not missing anyone. You mentioned the Chargers. You mentioned the Jags. The Jags are, I think, let me get my class here. They're minus 120 to make the playoffs. The Chargers are minus 180. Look, I love the coaches for both teams. I like the quarterback for the

chargers better than the Jags. I like the way the Chargers, I think their path to improving is a little bit easier because their offensive line will just naturally be better because they're getting players back. But their division is so hard. And the Jags, I think their division is going to be better. And they found their way to victories last year and the path to success. But I am not a buyer on Trevor Lawrence. And like, let's say the Texans are much better. we know, we think they'll be better than the Colts. We think that the Jags will be better than the Titans. But there's a path where they're not the best team in their division,

which could leave them on the outside looking in since that is the weakest of the divisions. Yeah, and people forget. Texas started what, 0.1 3 or 0.1 4 last year. And that was an insane hole to dig themselves out of, which, yeah, helped them tremendously. The Colts fell apart, which helped the Jacks tremendously. They also have a great coach in Liam Cohn. both really like him. I love him. That's the thing that's my only hesitancy is

can the Williams call as well. Can the Liam Cone power be stronger than the Trevor Lauren's power? Yeah and just all the weapons there too like um you know I think ETA might have left though I think he went to the same. He did he did. You know, Tutin is a good running back like they have other guys who can step in there and fill that void so you know I look at this team and I think they're really talented. Chargers and I know we haven't talked a ton about it but Mike McDaniels probably one of the bigger hires of the offseat. Like this guy, for all the weird, quirky stuff he says and does, he's a great offensive of mine.

He's one of the best run blocking schemes on all football. He knows how to get the most out of his quarterbacks. And he's already doing something with Herbert that was my biggest crapes, which is him holding on the ball too much, always looking for that big play. He wants it out of his hands fast. He wants to make the one or two reads and then get it out of his hand. Stop taking these unnecessary hits because, yes, he's missing offensive line. the line in his office lineman were injured last year. Herbert's whole career has been that way.

He's always trying to do too much now. That comes from his Oregon days. He's just a he's a playmaker. It's who he is. It's built into him. McDaniel's trying to beat that out of him, which I think is huge for him to try to take that next step. So I'm with you. This is really hard to pick one of those two to miss the playoffs. That's why I didn't give it out. It's, I can see a path for both of them. One of them is going to get knocked out by the chiefs. If the chiefs are who we think they are. Yeah. They're going to actually going to bump one of them. So that's a great question, Chad. If I had to pick one, I'm with you.

It probably would be the Jaguars. They just had so much break their way last year. Chargers had so many things, though, against them. You only can see more improvement. You know, Minter, we'll see about their defense with the Chargers. I think they can win their play their way out of it with the offense they have. But, yeah, for us and the Jaguars, I think we have both in the same question about Trevor Lawrence. Let's do a quick break from Hard Rock because then I want to talk about the Chiefs on the other side.

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Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee. All right, we talked about the chiefs just for a second before the break. We've mentioned them a few times in the conversation. Right now, I think they are minus 220.

at Hard Rock to make the playoffs. Obviously, there's assumptions in here. There's been a lot of reports about Patrick Mahomes' progress during the offseason, getting back in the field relatively quickly from the knee injury. No matter what, the expectations where this is going to be a playoff team, are you buying that expectation? Yeah, I'm drinking as much Kool-Aid as I can of it. Really?

Yeah, it's just a rare opportunity. It's when you come by and the Chiefs. It's them coming off a horrible season. I mean, people are going to see it. This is the type of year where everyone's going to do their list, right, top 10 teams or top 32 teams in the league. I will be shocked to see how many people have the Chiefs in their top 10. People are just leaving them for dead. That's how we are in football.

It's what did we see last happen? Like Chad just said he's not a big believer in the Patriots. I saw respected people who, you know, have thousands of listeners say the Patriots are their number five team heading into the season. It's just people can't help themselves, everyone. It's recently biased. It's like it's just what we do. We want to move on to the new shiny toy. The chiefs are not that at all.

This is a team that we expect to take a step back, right? We're on the other way where it's like they just went through their season of hell. They've never been more motivated, more doubted. I really like this chief's team and how it's setting up for them. So, well, I have a bet for you the down the line. I'm not going to bet them for playoffs-wise, but I have some really good odds on them right now that I've been taking advantage of for betting their future.

Okay. I like that. One of the other teams that I know we've talked a lot about betting is the Cleveland Browns. What do you want to say about the Browns? Like, do we want to bet the Browns at plus, what is it, 550 right now? Is that what it is? Yeah, plus 550 to make the playoffs. We were, we've been comfortable betting the Browns at 2001 at 2001 to win the Super Bowl. This is too short. I need this to be 8001 because we don't know what the quarterback is. It could be Shador, and I just, I can't be putting my real money behind Shador. That bet I made it 2001.

That was a Deshaun Watson coming back. And everything I've seen, Deshawns looked well, but no, I wouldn't touch this. There's two other teams of their division. I like a lot more heading to this season. I like this Browns team. Do you know who else's number I like a lot? Dallas Cowboys plus 100 to make the playoffs. Why is that not minus money?

Why are they not minus 120? Like, I was fundamentally impressed with Brian Schottenheimer last year and his ability to coach that team. The way he managed Dak Prescott, the way he managed it when CD Lamb was out, they had a terrible defense. I think they can make some of those changes and improvements. I think they started doing it by overhauling the staff.

I just feel like that they're being a little bit undervalued at plus 100 to make the playoffs. It's fair. And that's a good price, but it's also the same thing goes back to the Bears. It's a little fishy of a line where they know the fan base. They know people are going to be haming that, yes, to make the playoffs. And my first one would be in a year in which the division was totally weak, they didn't step up.

And that all happened in the week one, right? The CD dropped past against the Eagles. That felt like a sliding doors kind of moment. Like they had the Eagles about Jalen Carter. CD catches that ball. They win that week one. It totally changes their season, the outlook of their season. But they lost that game, like you said, they just could never get above 500 the rest of the year.

And, you know, Shottie did a great job as well. That defense is so bad. They have made improvements. They did go out and get guys and that parcel trade and much crap as we gave them. It looks like that was the best move for this team that needed a bunch of holes that needed to build. You could turn one player into three players.

You're going to take that deal, right? So I don't hate the bet, Chad. I just, it's because of the division where if Dart takes that next step, if Jane Daniels comes back, you can play like he did his rookie year and the Eagles are still the Eagles. I don't know.

That's going to be, as the greatest Dallas is, I could see them having another year of being 8-9-9. and eight. It's just hard to see them get into a 10, 11 wins again. So that's my hesitation with better than make the playoffs. I am so down on the New York football giants. I don't like their team. I'm not a buyer, Jackson Dart. I think that Harbaugh, John Harbaugh, unless he is a culture-setting genius that we haven't observed in a way.

I'm not buying that there is a quick fix on this giant's team. I see it though. Like I've had enough pros talk to me about it where I see what they're coming from. Because we talk about all the time, Chad. All these guys who are betting, it's on the year two jump. That's everything, right? No one predicted Caleb Williams would make this number two seat. No one predicted that Drake May would be the two seed.

Now, you could say, well, we knew Patriot would be good because they're scheduled. We can all agree on them, the head coach or anything like that. it's the same thing here with the Giants, right? They have an easier schedule, even though they're in a tougher division, like I just said. They have a new head coach. They have a quarterback that just had flashes of, I know in the coming into it, there's enough of Curry.

He said he wanted to have his game revolve around the same type as Jailen Hertz. He has shown them. He can run the ball. He can take hits. Eventually those hits caught up to him. That's the issue where it's like, you can't play Jalen Hertz's style if you can't take the hits. So, you know, we've heard that he said he was going to make adjustments.

He gets interviewed whatever it was a month ago at some golf event. He says, yeah, I'm going to be sworn with the ball. But if I need to get that first down, I'm still going to get it. Which is like, again, I love to hear that, but it's not learning. He's not getting it where it's like, dude, you have to live not for that first down, to live for the next snap. Like I wish, you know, a guy like Elon May I could just get in his ear about it where it's like you just take what's given to you.

You don't always have to put your head down and take those hits from a linebacker that weighs 50 pounds more than you. It's just, I'm totally in great with you, too, about horrible. I just do not believe in them. I think the Ravens, when the best organization is all football, they drafts so well. They had such a long run in his tenure of drafting so well. And you can point to, well, look how great he was as a playoff coach before Lamar.

He's only struggling in the playoffs with Lamar. Okay, that's all fine and good. Lamar was like a two-time MVP. That can't be overstated enough. Right. How much he can show, like hide away of our bowls? That's what that, that's my issue is that like, every time it mattered, he had the best quarterback, the best athlete in professional football,

maybe one of the best athletes to ever play the position of quarterback in the history of football. And he consistently made bad strategic decisions about how to use that quarterback. And he also made bad strategic decisions about who was going to be running the offense that this quarterback played in so often it was infuriating, absolutely infuriating, especially for someone who like you and I, we would often want to bet on the Ravens. We thought like they were so sound structurally and schematically, except they would always make the wrong decisions in the biggest moments strategically. Lamar had a rhythm to him too, where me and you are easiest beds of our lives.

And eight time Lamar played an NFC team, I think he was like 24 and 2 against NFC. It was easy money. Any time he played Pittsburgh, we bet Pittsburgh. He just for some reason struggled against Pittsburgh. It was these weird rhythms with Lamar, you know, I look at this team now. And, you know, it goes back to my Jalen Hertz argument about all the talent Jailen Hertz has surrounded by him. Lamar Jackson was part of the third greatest DVOA team ever in recorded history.

Now, if you don't know what DVOA is, it's basically how we can kind of judge these NFL teams non-biased, right? It's just pure data, pure numbers. It doesn't matter what you see in the field. It's just strictly numbers. So this computer doesn't know Lamar is one of the greatest athletes ever to live, right? He doesn't know that. It's just taking the DVA score of it. The third greatest team and the history of that record keeping lost at home to a chief's team that Chad probably remembers this. They were horrible. They were the four seed. They limped into it. Obviously, they went on doing the Super Bowl that year, but it just shows the difference of like, we agree. Hartball, he used to be a great coach. Me and Chad,

have major questions about him right now. And so I think we're on the same page about the Giants team, but they're minus 325 to miss the playoffs. Like that's, that's too high of odds. There's other ways I think we can attack that, which we talk about, the over and under, much simpler way to get a cheaper number at a better price. I will say Jackson Dart did throw a dart from the top of that boat onto the dude riding the jet ski, some wake somewhere where he then jumped off the boat,

which had to be 30 to 40 feet high doing flips and dives. and he looked like a young guy just having a fucking ball. And I would love for, like, perfect name, DART in New York City. The whole thing, it would be a dream scenario for fans of the league, everyone, if you worked out.

It just, it feels like coward. A lot of people are a little too early to the party. I think it's a year away or two maybe. I just, I can't get there with the Giants this year. All right. Let's, um, let's do this. Let's do a quick break right now with a word, from Z biotics and then I want to talk some Super Bowl stuff.

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out for 15% off. All right. So look, one of the bets that we've talked about every year that is an old stat from our friend Evan Abrams is you take the teams that are, I think, 12 to 1 or lower to win the Super Bowl, and you round robin them. And last year it didn't work, and I think three years ago it didn't work. But in, you know, I think 11 of the past. 13 years, the Super Bowl teams have come from this bunch of teams that are 12 to 1 or less.

What's interesting right now is at Hard Rock, there's only four teams that are 12 to 1 or less, and then there's one team that is 13 to 1. So the round robin options here are Rams plus 550, Ravens plus 1,000, plus 1,000, Buffalo Bills, plus 1, 10 to 1, 10 to 1, Seahawks plus 11,100, 11 to 1. And then the Chiefs are at 13 to 1, plus 1, here's the thing, Simon. Normally those teams, you feel really confident,

like you could see it, it would make sense. I think they're all suspect in a way. But one I actually feel most confident about is the Chiefs at 13 to 1. Yeah, before all this hype went on with the Rams, if you look before, it was all really closer. All these teams were like 8 to 1. The Ravens, the Rams, the bills, they're all tied.

People know my position. I only bet teams who have won Super Bowls before. I know it's, it sounds stupid, people, I get it, but it's just the way the league is. It's all culture. It's all front-off. It's all ownership. All that stuff matters so much.

And it's just, you've been there before when you've won it, odds have you doing it again, I'll go way high. You've been there before when you've lost, your odds go way down. Just ask Vikings fans and Bill's fans, right? I think they both went to four Super Bowls, never won one. It's just whatever it is. You haven't been invited to the party.

It's hard to get there. And I love the Bills. I love the Bills' prospects out for the season. I wouldn't put them in my round robin if I was you, Chad. I know it's a sacrilege. I just wouldn't do it. I don't feel comfortable with it at all. All these teams to me, like the Rams feel overhyped,

the Ravens have a new head coach, the Bills have a new head coach, and something feels a little bit off. I'm not going to do the Seahawks because I don't think they're going to repeat. I don't like any of these teams in my round robin except for Kansas City. Well, wait then. I'll give you my exactives later. You'll like that better. Well, go to your exactives then.

Because by the way, after Kansas City, it's the Niners, the Lions, the Chargers, the Eagles. You know what I would do right now? Here's what I would do. I would do Eagles Chiefs. That's what I would do. A Super Bowl matchup of Eagles Chiefs. I want you to tell me about what you think of that when we get to your exactors and all that kind of stuff.

You're locked in, chat. That's one of the plays. Is it really? Oh, yeah, of course. Oh, my God. All right, I'm making some notes right now as we speak. All right, Eagles Chief Super Bowl matchup. Number one seed in each conference.

Let's start with the NFC. The Rams plus 300. The Seahawks looks like it's plus. I've got to put my glasses on. 575. 575. Lions plus 700. Eagles plus 800.

Packers plus 850. Dude, Howie is just, it's like he's playing possum. I don't know he doesn't set these odds, but the dude's playing possum. If there's a team prime to bounce back right now, is it not the Eagles?

Just especially when you look at all the different divisions, right? Like you think about the NFC West, brutal. You think of the NFC North, brutal. Yes, the Eagles east might improve, but there's not a single defense that entire division that scares you. Like the Cowboys not have a defense. Giants don't have a great defense. Washington doesn't have a great defense.

Even if the Eagles do take a step back with AJ, I think there's so much BS last year and they still were almost the two seed. The one seed will be in grasp. Like Chad's saying, at plus 800, that's a really good value. I'd much rather make that bet that touch Seattle or the run. ramps. Like that's just, I know last year, obviously, they were both fighting for the one seed. These teams tend to cannibalize themselves, right? And you've seen that time of the game. Like, in your own division, the Bears, they basically won that second seed, won your division on

like the last day of the year. Like, they just, all these things had to break right for them to get that division. So just looking at it on paper, I agree with you. It's just the, the AFC is the same exact thing here. We're going to talk about. But I wouldn't top the touch ones, just like Seattle last year. I think Seattle at this point last year, we were 15 to 1. It would be the one seed. Take the long shots, people. Don't take the chalk. Everyone, we're too focused on what happened last year

rather than one might be happening. Always. Yeah. So you like the Eagles. There's anyone else in there that you think is worth any value? No, because you have two bays. You only have one. I just thought the Eagles out, that have everyone that jumped out to me,

they're the best odds. Like, you could do the bucks at 25 to 1. Like, that's crazy odds. But it's just, we've seen it Baker. he takes hits. I can't see him playing a full season. You need to play a full season to get the one seat. All right. Let's talk about the AFC then. What are you looking at? I mean, right away at the top, it's business as usual. It's Ravens, Bill's Chiefs, which I thought was really funny by the sports books. Just because, you know, I think the Charger is still favorites when the division. But the Chiefs are better odds to be the one seat.

Just shows like professional money how it dictates these markets and where they think the value is at. And, you know, for me, those top guys have no value now. You can look at Houston, their next one up at 10 to 1. Yeah. Still wouldn't do it because right away, it jumped out to me was Cincinnati. Cincinnati is 11 to 1. So interesting. Yeah, I know I'm not the biggest Zach Taylor guy,

but I look at that team where they've improved defensively. Like, that's all I really asked for is them to go improve defensively. I think the general public is trying to see, the nerds are trying to see what I saw last year, which is those sacks blindly baiting, blaming that Bengals' offensive line was foolish. They were not this bad offensive line. That's, oh, that's why Joe Broda succeed. No, Joe Borda succeed because he holds on the ball too long.

He takes unnecessary hits. And it's been following him his whole career because he had to have bad offensive lines. He had to try to do too much. But I think coming to this year, when someone goes to him and say, hey, you had the number one most time in Pat, and when you drop back to pass in the pocket in the league. Like, that's not made up metric.

That's a real metric between you and Joe Flacko. you need to figure it out because Joe Flacko didn't get hurt. Joe Flack, who is your 10-year senior. He took some hits, but obviously would throw the ball to dirt. He didn't take those unnecessary hits constantly, which Joe needs to work on. But them and the Ravens, they're not that much different. And the fact that the Ravens were the number one,

favorite to be the number one seed, and the Bengals are down here 11-1. My model has them literally neck and neck. So just going based off values, I have them both at plus 600. That means I'm getting a free plus 500. right now in this bangles team. So like, again, I'm not the biggest bangles believer.

My model jumps out to that. It's like I have to take notice and say, okay, I might be a little too hard on Joe Burrow and Zach Taylor. This is good. This is a good number. This is something you to bet. So I did bet it at 12 to 1. I've been at 11.01.

I would keep taking it until it drops down to below 10 to 1. I think it's a good value right now in this Bengals team. I like it. I like it a lot. I was going to ask you about the Bengals in their playoffs. And I didn't like the numbers. I think like to make it their minus 225 or something like that was just a few. to me too bloated.

But I like this opportunity on the bangles at 11-1. Because I agree with you, I think we did see that the issues for Joe Burrow last year were him holding the ball too long. And I think that started to become a message, too, that became sort of a narrative. Oh, wait a second. Maybe it's not all on their offensive line. And I do think also they focused on defense and improved their defense a little bit. So they're sneaky.

They're quiet. They're not getting a lot of conversation. Like all the conversation is about, you know, the Ravens and a new coach or Patrick Mahomes coming back or, you know, the trade of Miles Garrett to the Rams and we'll earn Donald come back. Not a ton of conversation right now about the Cincinnati Bengals. All right. We've reached the point in the show where I do, you've teased this a couple times. You got some exotic NFL playoff bets. This one will be my first one will be my Simon says.

So right off the top, got to go back to Chad. Chad already knew it. Chad read me like a book. Eagles to beat the Chiefs 100 to 1 Super Bowl. Wow. So if you're new here, people, that means if I bet a grand, I can win 100K on that bet. But you're like, that will never happen. Chad?

Chad knows. We know. Two years ago, your buddy Simon here put around 10 to 15K a bunch of different matchups. and the biggest one I leaned into was Eagles versus Chiefs matchup. And I basically bet it was like 5K to win 300K people. So I know it sounds crazy. You're like this one never happened. Now I'm getting even better odds.

Now I only need to bet $3,000 to win 300K. So it just shows where two years ago the Eagles and the Chiefs were just so much more hyped. They're getting even better odds now. I'm telling you these teams from those two years ago, no different in my model. These are just as good at teams. It's all about health. That's all football is. That's why we want to bet.

these crazy odds because we need a lot of luck to obviously get there. We need health. If both these teams say healthy, I think they're both top two, top three teams in their respected conferences. So right there jumped out. If you want to do the flip side, the chiefs to beat the Eagles, same thing at Hard Rock, 100 to 1. We just talked about the Bengals.

I like, people know, I like betting repeat Super Bowls. And it happens. It just, I mean, it sounds crazy, but every year it happens. Patriots Seahawks repeat Super Bowl matchup. Like these things, the NFL is so cyclical, it's so repeatable. Since I had Bengals to beat the Rams, 100 to 1. I just, again, I'm looking at 101 bets. The Rams, you really can't find good odds on them,

but to fade them, to have them losing the Super Bowl, and get some pretty good odds. So that was 120 to 1. It's now dropped down 101 Bengals over the Rams in Super Bowl. So those are exact those. You know, if you want to do three or four of them, put, you know, five bucks on each. They're just really fun bets to come back to.

the playoffs where it's easy to hedge, right? If you want to hedge the NFC championship game, we're going to have such crazy odds. You're going to have a lot of opportunity to do that. So that's why I like making these type of bets. Listen, I owe you a Chad's choice. And I was going to do the Bears to miss the playoffs. And like, I can't do that. Like, at the end of the day, I can't have one of my season-long bets be against the team

that I'm going to be living and dying with all season long. I can't emotionally hedge a season long. But I think you really got me on the Saints. So my Chad's choice is going to be the New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at plus 200. I like the situation with the South. I like a little bit of regression from the Panthers and their schedule. I think we liked what we saw from Kellan Moore and Tyler Schock last year.

So I'm going with the Saints as Chad's choice plus 200 to make the playoffs. What do you think of that? I always like feedback. I love it. And I say the only one I really disagreed was of any of the points you even gave was your Patriots take, where I was all aboard fading the Patriots. But just that everyone I talked to in the Miami organization and the Jets organization, is that four free wins.

And if they split with the bills, that means they have five wins potentially just in their division. So that's what's so terrified with them, the bills, right? I can see either of them winning that division and obviously being a top seed just because they have potentially four free games this year. Like it just seems all purposes, the Jets really don't want to win this year. And Miami is right on board with that. Like they know this next upcoming class of quarterbacks, it's insane. It might be one of the best classes I've ever seen coming out.

We'll see how that happens a regular season, right, with college football. But as we sit here right now, the Jets, Miami, they are truly trying to tank. and they're being open about it. So I was right there with you. I was full-blown ready to fade this Patriots team. But the fact that you're bringing in A.J. Brown, who we'll see about his health. But if he's healthy, with that defense, with Drake may hopefully take on that next step if you're a Patriots fan, I don't know how they don't get to 10 wins.

And 10 wins, we've seen the past. That's good enough to get the 70s in the AFC. So I get what you're coming from. I wanted to be on the fade the Patriots bandwagon as well, Chad. Just at that price, I can't do it for them to miss the playoffs. All right. So our Simon says, presented by hard rock bets, Eagles to beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl at 100 to 1.

Our Chad's choice presented by hard rock bet, New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at plus 200. That is our show. Reminder, no show on Thursday. Simon and I are back on Tuesday. MLB midseason betting with Sean Zirillo. This has been Sharp or Square, part of the volume, podcast, network watch or listen on YouTube or watch or listen on YouTube at Sharp or Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel, download us from Spotify, Apple Pod, wherever you get your pods.

Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. When you look at Kelvin Benjamin, guys, he's 6'5, he's 245 pounds, he's probably a Popeye's biscuit away from being a tight end. and he has trouble getting separation. This is an I-Heart podcast, Guaranteed Human.