The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL SEASON WIN TOTALS Part 2

Episode Date: March 19, 2026

After looking at the 10 highest win totals two weeks ago, betting expert Chad Millman and professional gambler Simon Hunter return with more picks and predictions for the 2026 NFL season! And today we wrap up our two-part episode on win totals looking at the other 22 teams across the National Football League. In this episode, our hosting duo discusses the Minnesota Vikings with new quarterback Kyler Murray, and the new-look Pittsburgh Steelers with new coach Mike McCarthy and new acquisitions Rico Dowdle, Michael Pittman Jr., and more. We also dive into the Maxx Crosby trade debacle between the Las Vegas Raiders and Baltimore Ravens, which saw the latter sign free agent pass rusher Trey Hendrickson instead. Will the Chicago Bears ascend even further? Are the Jacksonville Jaguars the new toast of the AFC South? And are the Tennessee Titans better off now than they were a month ago? All of these questions answered and more in today's episode! #Volume 0:09:35 - MINNESOTA VIKINGS 0:13:16 - ARIZONA CARDINALS, LAS VEGAS VEGAS, MIAMI DOLPHINS, NEW YORK JETS 0:16:10 - CAROLINA PANTHERS 0:18:55 - CLEVELAND BROWNS, TENNESSEE TITANS 0:18:05 - ATLANTA FALCONS 0:22:00 - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 0:26:10 - WASHINGTON COMMANDERS 0:31:25 - DALLAS COWBOYS 0:35:45 - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0:37:30 - PITTSBURGH STEELERS 0:39:00 - TAMPA BAY BUCS 0:41:20 - CHICAGO BEARS 0:49:40 - DENVER BRONCOS 0:52:30 - HOUSTON TEXANS, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, my confidre, my co-host, professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? My brother. We're going to talk a little NFL today because we're going to do part two of our NFL

Win Totals episode that we started a couple weeks ago with part one. Last time we did all the NFL win totals for teams that had totals of 10 or more in 26 at Hard Rock Bet. Again, these were just released in the last few weeks. So that's why we're talking about them now. Today we're going to cover everybody else. So far, we've talked about like in Buffalo over 10 and a half. I also took Carolina over six and a half.

I believe you called that quote, a trap, unquote. And that was before they made any signings. We followed up on that a little bit with Barnwell. Some of the stories that have been driving the news for the NFL since we did part one. so we'll see if these change anything for us. Obviously, the Max Crosby trade. That was then canceled. Baltimore followed it up by signing Trey Hendrickson.

Tua has gone to Atlanta. He will be the starter, presumptively. Kyler to Minnesota, so we know we're going to want to talk about Minnesota. Kevin McCarthy has to be so excited about that. Pittsburgh added Michael Pittman Enrico Dowdle, Justin Fields is going to be backing up and maybe starting in Kansas City

to start the year depending on the homes. Recovery from his ACL. Christian Kirk and Mike Evans to San Francisco. You know, I always love looking for an excuse to bet on the Niners. Dallas traded for Roshan Gary from Green Bay at defensive end. Dallas Goddard,

we sign with Philly. they also acquired Rick Wollen. They got rid of re-blankenship, or at least he walked away. And then just this week, on Tuesday, Jaylen Waddle traded from Miami to Denver. Before we get into anything, Simon, I just listed off a lot of movement.

Which one of those, when you heard about them, and since you've heard about them, most peaks your interest is most exciting to you. Do you think was the smartest play? Yeah, I think we're aligned. How do you not like? the Vikings move, right? Exactly.

That was it for me. Yeah, it's just, it's only upside. Like, we all know what the deal is with the kid. He has tons of talent. It's just, like, can he put the work in? And this will be the first time in my mind that he'll have probably the best coaching of his career.

So I, and just someone that's going to be super hard. I was going to tell him like, hey, your last team gave up on you. I think he's going to tell him that every day. And being like, you're not this untouchable guy now. Like, you're here. There are other teams paying for you to come play for us. That's how much they gave up on you.

So I love that move from Minnesota. And we talk about the Ravens move. I mean, it's a bad look. It's embarrassing for the Ravens organization, but I totally agree with the move. Like if you find something that tells you, hey, in two, three years, this guy might need another surgery on this knee.

This might be a problem going forward. You fail the physical, and you don't trade those picks away. So, you know, if you're the Browns and you don't draft well anyway, sure. I shouldn't say the Browns did draft well last year, but, you know, all these teams aren't great of drafting. Sure, trade away your first round picks. The Ravens feels like they're pretty good at drafting first round picks.

So that was a bizarre move. Now they get those picksbacks and get Trey Hendrickson. It feels like a great move for them. And as an Eagles fan that's still hearing all the rumors about A.J. Brown, the AGA Brown to the Raiders for Max Crosby deal is now a real possibility. So that Max Crosby, I think does not feel done yet. Like I know that he went back in the next morning. I think it was like 8 a.m. He was in rehabbing at the radar facility the next morning.

He's just, that's the kind of guy he is, right? He didn't miss a beat. So to me, if you're the Raiders, you can hold on to him. It's not that bad, but I think in the dead,

they want to move him for a piece that's going to help their franchise quarterback. So that was, I don't know, but you, that was by far the most shocking thing of the whole offseason. That never happens. We're sending a trade like that to first round picks.

Chad, I was truly shocked, and I can't remember another time this has happened. Well, look, that was the shocking move to begin with was getting rid of the first two picks because it's just out of character for the Ravens, right? They have had a history of drafting really, really well in the first round. And then rescinding the trade was even more out of character for the Ravens and for really just how the NFL operates. But going to get Chey Hendrickson, to me, I loved it because Max Crosby to me was, was a two to three year trade, right? He's 28, 29. We talked about this when we talked about

should the Bears be giving up DJ Moore in a first round pick to go get Max Crosby? It's because you feel like you're in the window with the Bears where you're going to try to get maximum value for this team for the next two years tops. That's really what you're playing for. You want to win the Super Bowl in that window. And I think it's the same thing for the Raven. So basically what they did was say, okay, we got a guy who's reaching his peak and might have two to three great years left in Max Crosby. We're going to walk away. Let's go get someone who might be one or two years in Trey Hendrickson, but it'll be enough with the rest of our team that it'll laid the foundation for something great with the new coach. I love the way they operate. They are,

they're so good at this. You know what I mean? Some people never get good at it, and some people are always good at it, and they are always good at it. Well, it's funny. The books had moved them to 11 and then back down to 10.5. So that was interesting watching the Ravens Line move. They gave them half a win. They got max and they didn't move it at all. Couldn't try.

So that was, that was great by the books. Well, maybe there's value there, Simon. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe. The other thing you just said, I thought that was so smart. Kevin McCarthy is going to say to Kyler every day, we are getting paid to take you.

Like you think you're so great. You are a tremendous athlete. You are a two-sport athlete. You could have gone to do anything. You think you're so great. And your other team does not want you so badly. They're begging us to take you. They are giving us money to take you.

That is a great motivator. It will be really interesting to test the McCarthy whisperer phenomenon. on Kyler, right? Because Kirk Cousins, it worked, Daniel Jones, it worked, Sam Darnold, it worked, J.J. McCarthy, it kind of hasn't worked. What is Kyler? Kyler is a better athlete than all of those guys, but he has your reputation of not being a guy who's committed to football. if Kevin McCarthy can do anything close to what he did with the other guys who have gone on to make tons and tons of money, that's going to be really interesting, which means when we talk about the Minnesota Vikings who are at, what, seven and a half, I think? Eight and a half.

All of a sudden with Kyler and the reputation of McCarthy, do we think, oh, that's interesting. I don't know. I don't hate it. Yeah, I'm with you. I don't hate if you're taking the over because it's plus 110 at a hard rock, eight and a half. You did miss the value like Chad said. It was seven and a half.

The Kyler moved, gave them a win. You've seen it with Kyler. Like, Kyler, his biggest issue is like what Chet's talking about. It's a commitment. Like,

Kyler in a contract year, what do you get, 11, 12 wins? That's what this is. Let's say contract year for him now, right? This is a one year proven deal. So if you're going to back a Kyler Murray to be motivated, this has to be the year.

I mean, next year, if they give them, whatever, $150 million over three years next year in Minnesota, I think me and Chad will definitely back away from taking them next year, but you want to back Kyler in the year that he's motivated. So I'm with you on that. That's a sneaky play, especially at plus 110. I think that flips to minus 110,

the closer we get the start of the season. So, yeah, I like that overplay. Yeah, like Kyler all of a sudden being in the NFC North, that division, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Kayla Williams, Jared Goff all of a sudden is sort of the least interesting quarterback. And that team, by the way, is looking more and more like an underplay the Lions with all the offensive line issues they're having. Just think like two years ago, this team, they were freaking primed. They had the offensive line that was bulldozing people,

right they're like ben johnson like this team that window just closed i just i feel terrible for them i do i know that's why any team that has a standalone top five top 10 quarterback it's the ultimate cheek code for being a football fan because it doesn't matter if you lose a ben johnson you got the quarterback you'll figure it out um again i'm not trying to poopoo golf but we all know the deal right It's like he needs it to be perfect to be a top 10 quarterback. And yeah, this division we've been talking about it. The Bears won at last year. It feels like the same type of deal this year.

It's a really going to be a toss up. Who can stay healthy is going to really be the deterrent for this division. It feels like there's just so much talent across all four teams. All right. At the bottom of the pile right now, Arizona, four and a half, Miami, four and a half. Las Vegas, New York Jets, five and a half. I'm going to do a quick comment, and then I want you to tell me agree or disagree. Ready?

Arizona, four and a half, under. Agree. Miami, four and a half, under. I agree. Las Vegas, five and a half. Fernando. But I'm still taking the under. Yeah, it's an under.

New York Jets, five and a half. I might take the alt under here. If there's a three and a half, I might just take that. And if there's an Aaron Glenn first coach to be fired, I might probably the whole thing. Agreed. The Raiders is the only one, the only team that feels like are going to try to win out of all the teams you just said.

Everyone else, they want the top pick, whether that be meaning, we don't even know, right? You never know who's going to be the number one pick this early. Like, Fernando Mendoza, I believe, was a thousand a one, or not a thousand to be the number one pick at this point. last year.

And by the way, don't forget, what was it? Before the NFL season ended, at one point on the show, you're like... It was like, minus 150. Yeah, Fernando Menosa is minus 150. Like, go bet them right now. Yeah, so that's, it's a sad state when it's like all these teams we know they're going to tank. Because usually the NFL is not like that. You can kind of lie to yourself and say, what these teams are going to try.

Like, you get a team like the Cleveland Browns, that they're terrible. They still got the five wins. Like they were still trying. Like those guys in the defense were still trying. Some of these teams this year that Chad just mentioned, like Arizona, I don't know what's going to be the motivating factor there, right? They're just going to get rid of all these players on this team. They're just going to be paying all this dead money.

They're not going to try to win. And same with the Jets. Like bringing back Aaron Glenn. Such a strange, strange look and move. By the way, bringing back Gino Smith. Yeah, I know. So it's like, Gino and Aaron Glenn, they could win six games because they're idiots. Like that could happen with that team.

So, yeah, the Jets, I don't know what to do with them, but they're another team. I just, it's hard to think of them getting over two or three wins. I mean, that was an interesting move. Gino Smith, that's how bad it's gotten. The Jets are signing him. It's a terrible combination for everybody. It can, you know, like, that's, Gino Smith looks good because Justin Fields was so bad. That's really what it is.

This next batch, Carolina, six and a half, I felt like you started to come around to my side the other day when Barnwell was on because they made some good signings. The biggest issue I think you have is that they've got to play the harder schedule now because they came in first. But I contend that their division, they could potentially get. get six wins in their division. No.

Way, Jesus. You're out of your mind now with that comment. A good year with them getting four wins in their division. That would be eight years. Fine. Four. Give them four wins. That's best case.

They can find three wins in the other 13 games. I know, but you think they're going to win their division. Who are they sweeping? You sweeping the Saints. The Saints are just as good as though. Like, don't put disrespect on Shucks. Look, the Saints have a higher win total than the Panthers right now.

Right. So that's what I mean. It's like, dude, they got to play the Bears. You got to play the Eagles. Like that first place schedule, man. They got to play the Seattle C-Ox. It's tough. It is really tough. So that's just why I'm trying to ward your off. It's a fishy line. But your early bet if you did make it was right. Because I think it was minus 120. Now it's up to minus 150 or hard rock or minus 140. So yeah, the money's coming on there total. I just as soon as I saw that line, I'm like, my God, the public is going to hand. of that Carolina Panthers line. And that is the fissious of fishy lines. Why is it not seven and a half? I don't get why they open it six and a half. They opened it that way because they want to take money to the over. So that's just why I was like, be careful here.

But I told you, I'll support you. It's we're a Carolina Panthers show. I mean, I'll support it, but I just don't want the fans to be making it one of their bigger bets. There's other safer bets to bet for win totals. I can't believe the Carolina Panthers don't sponsor our show.

They should. Makes no sense. They don't have a, they don't get this much national attention from anybody. Yeah. I mean, for good reason, though,

it's like no one's turning in to hear the Panthers talk. Remember that Panthers podcast that folded? No. Last year. No, so basically this Panthers podcast folded up because they were just like, they can't take it anymore.

Both the guys said, like it's affecting their lives. And then all of a sudden, the Panthers won like a bunch of games in a row. So it became this whole thing where everyone was like, you guys can never come back. Because now the Panthers are winning. It was just the whole thing, but that's how hard it is being a Panthers fan.

They're making guys quit their hobby podcasts because it's affecting their life that much negatively. By the way, I didn't know we could just quit shows if it was affecting our lives because there are so many ways the show affects our lives negatively. If we could just quit, that'd be fantastic. Cleveland and Tennessee, both six and a half. Look, I think six and a half feels a little bit high for Tennessee and Cleveland. Because I don't know, you're kind of on the Deshaun Watson bandwagon here. And I keep seeing this.

I've seen this, I don't know if it's like becoming a media narrative if everyone is having the same conversation amongst themselves. And, you know, but why are people so excited that Deshaun Watson could all of a sudden be what he hasn't been in five years? Like everyone's saying to Sean Watson, he could come back. and I just I'm not getting it. So if chat asked me a question and I get a response to it, now I'm in love with the team.

You asked me, your favorite long shot, I said 1301 Cleveland Browns because Deshawn Watson's coming back. And now I'm a big Deshawn Watson guy. This is very big. Big Sean Watson guy. Real on brand for chat. The guy,

I said the guys could be totally washed. It's a train wreck of the season. But the books are being very telling right now where Cleveland's plus 125 at Hardware. Rock over six and a half. Tennessee is minus 125. Yeah, right. And that is because of the divisions, right? Like we don't know what the culture going to be. Daniel Jones coming back from a huge injury, who their quarterback's even going to be. Jaguars, it's fair to say, they overachieved a little bit last year. Like it was pretty impressive how good, you know, they were last year. And can they build on that or was that just a fluke the first year offense? And we still have a lot of

questions about Trevor Lawrence especially. And, yeah, the Tennessee, I think maybe the pros are bed to check because the new coach bump, right? You think solid comes in there fixes that defense a little bit, but to me, they have so many holes. Like, you would need, you would need CJ take such a huge step to year two. You mean cam. So I would take the over.

I agree with the pros really bad on that one. I wouldn't take the under. And for Cleveland, as much as I'm propping up to Sean Watson, those odds, at over under or six and a half in that division, I would agree with the pros, the under six and a half feels like the safer bet. Atlanta, a quick one, ready?

Atlanta, seven and a half. I'm going to go with the, I'm going with the over. Yeah, that's what I mean. Like this division, I'll probably be on every team's over, honestly.

Like the Panthers are really looked at Dick in the Under because Atlanta has enough talent they could get to 10 wins. It's like, If Tua has good pass blocking, which he should have there and he has good weapons, he could be great. If Pank comes back from this injury and he's all right, this could be a good offense. Like there's a lot of upside, but it's Atlanta team.

And, you know, at Hard Rock, they're plus 105 to the over seven and a half. So, yeah, I'm not betting it right now. Like, there's no way I'm locking up money in Atlanta Falcons in March, but they are a tempting line, especially at this number. New Orleans, seven and a half. All right. I know you're taking the over. I'm interested in New Orleans

because I really want to see how well Tyler Shuck does next year. That's what the same part. Year two of Shuck, right? Yeah. Are they building on that? Or they're getting four wins. Like they're a team. I'm going to be better than alternative over-unders.

Like I'm going to take the over eight and a half, over nine and a half, and I'm going to be taking the under five and a half under four and a half. Like this is, was it a flash in the painter? Is this guy legit? Like he's got. written all over him, Shuck. Like there's so much you could go wrong for him after year one. This is the perfect scenario for them because Shuck did well enough that they,

he didn't put them in a position where they have to like be so high that they could potentially be scrambling and trying to figure out who their quarterback is going to be in a weak quarterback draft class other than Mendoza. Like there's questions about everybody. Whereas if Shuck is great, they will have a full year to see and they will be a team that's on the rise because they got the quarterback that they needed at pretty, you know, sort of pretty low costs. And if he's terrible, they will know. And all of a sudden, they're in the Archmanning comes home race. And let's see if they can get their hero to return.

Right. So they're in a perfect position. They win either way next year. I'm just shocked at the books on a seven and a half on them. Like that feels very high for this team. It does. I just talked about like a lot of question marks. And yeah, I wanted to hammer this under,

but I think I'm too close to my love for Shuck. So it's a tough line for me. Giants seven and a half. That feels like a Harbaugh bounce, right? Like there's no other reason to be betting on. the Giants at seven and a half if other than you think they have just going to completely revamp their culture because of what John Harbaugh is going to bring to that team. It's just like one of my favorite underbeths.

And I know some pros that have been hammering this over. Dart runs literally with his head down into guys. Like, all right, Harbaal can coach that out of him, sure. I would not be betting on it. This guy has played one style his entire career. And I don't know if you've seen him get interviewed. He's talked about not changing. He's like, that's who I am.

That's the way I play. So maybe they can beat it into him. But if you don't have a quarterback, then stay available and consistently get better, Darth flashes. We've seen the talent. He can't stay on the field and can say, can be consistently, you know,

getting reps. This is going to be a disaster for this giant team. Because this is a hard division. Like, Dak, Jalen, Jadenials, this is a really hard division. So I was another line, I think, mispriced by the sports books. I had this at five and a half.

two wins off the books. And that to me just shows how I'm viewing dark compared to the sports books. I am way lower on Dart than the sports books clearly. And yeah, I could not believe this one to open at seven and a half. So I don't give out too many favorite unders at this point of the year. I like betting overs just because the line usually moves. This one I do really like the under here. I think this one's going to drop down to six and a half.

But it's not just Dart. It's Cam Scadaboo and who runs like a bulldozer. He's not going to change. he's coming back from an injury. His leg was facing the other way. Yeah. And their defensive line, Abdul Carter was disappointing this year. They're trying to get rid of Tibido.

They weren't as good defensively up front as I think anyone expected them to be. They've got questions at receiver now because they've got players coming back from injury, their best receiver come back from injury. So people are investing a lot in Harbaugh, if they are taking the over right now because they think he's what, rebuilt their special teams. Like there's just a lot of faith. Harbaugh bounce there. Washington, seven and a half, I'd go with the over there. I'd go with the over because I think they're going to get an easier schedule. Daniels is back for a full season and their defense can only get better. And they know what the issues are. So I would like the over there. I'm taking the under. I get why you're taking the over

though, but to me, I think it's priced right. Like, I'm just taking the under just because once again, as, as much as I like Daniels, I don't know if the team has made the right moves to improve. I know they've tried to approve the offensive line. We'll see if that comes to fruition, but yeah, I still have a lot of questions about this Washington, just in such a tough division. All right. Before we get to the eight and a halfs and over, let's take a quick break from our friends at Hard Rock Bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet, Florida's sportsbook. It's tourney time and my favorite thing to do this time of year is to fill out my bracket.

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We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys?

I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast,

where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the I-Hawks. Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest,

SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody

gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen kingdom on earth.

He felt destined for greatness. So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world, he doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the president of Turkey. I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking criminal conspiracies I've ever come across. When Jacob met Levin this went to a billion-dollar fraud. But with two kings from entirely different worlds, just how long can their empire survive? The largest tax investigation in American history. You need to tell me what you know.

Is somebody coming after me? Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life. Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the Aihar Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, Simon. Dallas Cowboys, eight and a half, I'll bite. I'm a sucker. I'll take the over. I saw a lot of promise.

I'm excited about what that can do. They got rid of Ibrose, that defense can get better. We'll see what Roshan Gary can do. Maybe be a better, more effective pass rusher than what they did when they got rid of Micah and didn't really have anything to stop it. I'm down on the Giants. I'm not crazy down on the commanders, but I do think Dallas is going to be better.

So I'll take the over eight and a half on the Cowboys. Yeah, I don't hate it. It's minus 135 right now at Hard Rocks. So obviously shows the pros have been hitting it. And, you know, they like the over as well with you. The question is that defense and Dax health, I mean, they wasted a fully healthy Dax season. Yes.

And Dag was good, man. Really good. He kept them in it. Like, he really, we talked about coming the year. I couldn't cover how much I loved the pickings signing where he fit perfectly what Dak wants to do, which is pushing the ball down field and running curl routes. He's really good at it. Like those sideline catches, pickings lived up to the hype, and they handled that right to me.

They didn't give him a long-term deal. They signed him to a one-year franchise tag deal. So once again, he'll be on his best behaviors picking. So I like that move a lot from Jerry. Shockingly, smart move from Jerry there. And, you know, C-D, just like last year, I know he had those horrible drops in that one game, but overall, he's what, a top five receiver? So I think we're both in agreement.

We don't really question the offense. Did these offseason moves they've made to attack the defense? Is this going to fix this defense? So that's the question. The pros think it is. They're hammering this over. I'll wait and see. If this gets to nine and a half,

I'm happy to take the under on minus 140, whatever that gets to, rather than taking this over, just because once again, if Washington is a little bit better, that's going to be really tough for them in this division because the Giants, you know, as much as I think they're going to regress,

if Darts's healthier in the year, he could easily steal a win from this Cowboys team. I mean, people forget Russell Wilson. What do you have 40 points against the Cowboys team last year? And Dak stole it with Aubrey Field Goal in the last second from 65 yards. Like they almost lost the Giants last year. So I think we're in agreement.

We obviously believe this Cowboys team, but that's, Probably when the lower win totals they've had, I think last year they opened at eight and a half. It might have dropped to seven and a half by the start of the season. I think they'll land a right on eight. So the books, they've been pretty dialed in here on this Cowboys team.

So, yeah, pretty interesting line movement here. It's clearly going to nine. Is C.D. Lamb, a top five receiver? I guess I would go. Yeah. It's Jamar Chase,

Justin Jefferson, Puka Nakua. I think you got to do Jackson, Smith, and Jigba. And then, like, is it CD? Is he fifth? Is he, like, in no particular order, but is he the other one? Who are we missing that could be?

Amon Raus St. Brown? Like, I mean, I know everyone's different. Like, you like, you put Chase right at one. I think CD's better than Chase. So it's, it's whatever you like. Your type, it's everyone's different. It's whatever you prefer. I just, I get your,

for about CD versus the other guy. I don't even know if I put Jamar Chase one. Like I might put JSN or Puka number one. I think they both get contested balls, especially Puka, is much better at contested balls than Jemar Chase. Yeah, they're different style of receivers. Pucca's like 6'5 building a brick house.

Yeah, it's freaking awesome. They're different. But yeah, honestly, it comes down to me, just how I've seen Chase perform when the season's lost, Now I've seen CD perform the season's loss. CED feels like he never takes reps off. I see Chase take reps off plenty of times. Like he is,

especially in games where Teagans is going off, you see him being a little bitch about it, where Pickens is going off. You see CED running over there picking them up. Like CD to me just has the exact personality I won. And again, that's nothing against Chase, but we're splitting hairs here. Like Chase is, like I said, a top five receiver in this league.

So it's not that big of a difference. I just, if I had to pick one from my, For the egos, I'd prefer CD over Chase. Indy, eight and a half. I'm going under here. Yeah, what is this number? It's too big. Number, yeah.

We don't even know when Daniel Jones is going to be playing. So are we saying that in the eight and a half? Do you remember what he did? He tore his Achilles, right? He tours Achilles. Yeah, that's like he tore his Achilles midway through the year. It's not like he tours Achilles in September. So that, like, we've seen.

great quarterbacks missed the full year for that. In a division with Houston, Jackson, on a Tennessee team we think it's gonna be better. So Chad's, I think we're in the alignment. You're like the under, right? Yes, as I said, under. Yeah. So to me, like this and the Giants,

these are two unders, I've been betting pretty heavily. I did not, do not understand this opening it all. Unfortunately, the books are limited to it. Like, I've had a couple of books only take a thousand. They don't let me re-bed it either. Like, they're holding firm on it. Because I think they know, like there's too many unknowns here. and they might have hung up bad line here.

Because, yeah, so Daniel Jones is fully healthy coming to this year. Year two of running the stiking offense, I'd love this over. Like, we saw how good he can be running this offense with Jonathan Taylor. And, you know, they brought back his number one receiver. But the fact that we've seen two quarterbacks, I know he's much younger than them, but we saw Kirk and Rogers take at least a year to come back from the killings. Okay, even if Daniel Jones is a little bit younger, he uses his legs way more than both those quarterbacks.

Way more. Like that was the huge thing with Daniel Jones is using his leg, especially running outside the pocket. So I cannot believe they hung a number this high. I could easily see this drop into six and a half, seven by the season kicks off. If we get worried, Daniel Jones won't be back until November. So bizarre, bizarre line with the sports book. Minnesota, we talked about.

Pitt is at eight and a half taking the under on Pittsburgh. I don't know who the quarterback's going to be. I feel like they're revamping their culture. They aren't leaning into players they develop. They're bringing in new guys. Their defense with Watt and everybody else is just a year older, not necessarily better. They haven't figured out what their defensive backfield issues are. This feels like a respect the uniform number.

I'm taking the under. Yeah, it's what are we going to do? For our old Tomlin days, we'd always try to find reasons to bet the under. We don't have to worry about that anymore. I know. And that's, I love that they're hanging on this line exactly on the Tomlin line where they're

lost. Yes. Isn't that weird? Yeah, the new error, or are you going to say the voodoo is gone? And this is a six-win team now, especially with Aaron Rogers going back. But, you know, the way Pittsburgh's been attacking this off season,

they think they're a nine, 10-win team. So, you know, I'll pass on this one. I guess if I had to make a pick, I would join chat and take the under here just because I do think Tomlin's that big of a deal. And this division is that tough. But yeah, I love the books hung this right at eight and a half. And it's plus 125 to the over. If you like Pittsburgh on the over. The last eight and a half is Tampa Bay eight and a half minus 140 to the over.

So money's coming in on that over there. Look, what do we believe? do we believe in Baker? Do we believe this team can can sort of return to what it was early in the year, return to what it was the year before, or are they going to be a team that continues to sort of be in a perpetual state of middling mediocrity close enough but can't quite get over the hump as they also, they're going over some roster turnover. Emacarbuca was not as good in the second and a half of the year, as he was in the first half of the year, what is going to happen to their running game,

where they had a lot of injuries last year with Bucky Irving. Like, there's, there's issues there. I think they're getting the benefit of the doubt at eight and a half, but that division is soft. Yeah, that's the reason, because they're in the right division. And any other, if they were in your division chat, if they're in the north, they would probably be seven and a half. Like, they just, they're getting a free game here because you assume

they'll be the best team this division, because they still have a ton of talent. And, you know, Baker, he never, he never had surgery. At least I didn't say everything in the news, or I didn't hear anything for my minions, but I was positive he was hurt because he was a totally different quarterback

the first half of the season, the second half. And, you know, the second half of the season, would they lose, seven straight or whatever it was? Something crazy like that. So to me, they're another high variance team. I could easily see them getting to 10 wins. Like if Baker is healthy and he's put it together, he's really good.

I mean, it's crazy to think he was top three in MVP odds for the first month and a half of last year's season. So, you know, we know they have a ton of talent, but we saw last year, like Chad said, they fell apart. And I think that is because they've lost so many smart offensive minds who have become head coaches, right? And there's only so many times you can overcome that. And, you know, they're a really fun team. And once again, a really fun division. And I'm not going to say I'm hammering their under here. because like I said, I could see the over being a possibility.

I'll simply pass this one, but if I had me make a pick, I would lean towards the under. Simon, we got six teams that are lined at nine and a half. Are you ready? Do it. Chicago Bears, nine and a half plus 100 to the over, minus 120 to the under. And I know that my head is telling me the under is the right. side here. But how do I not want to root with every part of my being for the bears to run the table

and go to the Super Bowl? Yeah, like you said, the smart bed probably is the under. You expect a regression last year. They overachieve. I mean, what was it? The first 7, 8 weeks, they had five wins, true coin flips. Like, they won in the last minute, two minutes. Like, they had the record.

How about the end of the season? Every week was a cardiac arrest. Yeah, I would say the playoffs really amplified that, right? They should have lost the Green Bay, that it came back, had an incredible win in the Rams. They never should have, like that game never should have been extended. Right. So, you know, it's the type of team that it's hard to go against them and take their under because what we just talked about, they find ways to win that's on the coach and it's also obviously on the quarterback. And Caleb, we'll see how he handles this offseason, right? Last year, he was at the lowest point probably in his football life, right?

He was embarrassed, being torn apart by the media. I feel like if he had another bad year last year with the Bears, they probably would have been open to moving on from this year. Literally, that's how bad it was last year. Now he is the golden goose, like the whole city's behind him. Everyone believes in them. They'll see the talent. And can he handle that, right?

Can he still be putting in the work this all season? Because, you know, we haven't gotten it since yet. but Joe Burrow, I don't know if you've seen him. He's been out and about a lot of beautiful women this all season, which is no problem. Like this dude, he's in his 20s. He's a millionaire. He's a star of a Quinefell quarterback.

These other quarterbacks like Mahomes, I've seen him rehabbing and working with sleep. Josh Allen, I've seen multiple videos of him at the bill's facility working out, not him out party or doing anything. It's like, that's my whole thing here with people. It's like, okay, Caleb, I've seen him go out and have fun during the office. season for the first two weeks it felt like the off season these last i've seen with him though he's been in-house working out being locked in so if that holds true to the summer i would take

the over right now i'm going to i'm going to handle patience with this line because i think it is priced right by the sports folks i'm not russian tick the over or the under well you just mentioned cincinnati Cincinnati's nine and a half this feels so inflated to me, I don't understand it. It's clearly, it's clearly like the, the, what's your favorite of Anglos sign in this off season, Chad? Can't say it. Yeah, exactly. No one can. She was this only about Joe Burroughs going to be playing a full season. So they think, even though historically, he never does. So, A, you're banking on a healthy Joe Burrow and B, you're assuming that Joe Burrow is what everyone believes he to be, he is,

which is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I'm not even sure you believe that anymore. I still, like again, I took a lot of heat last year because I had him at number six of my top 10 quarterbacks. I put at number five, Stafford over him. And like that's reversional history of people. Like I try not to over adjust the one season. People were killing me because I had Stafford above them.

Like, have you not seen Stafford these last couple of years? He's nowhere near as good as Joe Brown. And it's like, dude, Stafford, if he's healthy consistently on the field, he is just as good or if not better quarterback than Joe Burrow. The hype had just reached too high because Joe Burrow won the national championship with maybe the greatest college football team other. And then his first full healthy season of NFL. Second best college football team ever.

His first full healthy team NFL went to Super Bowl. So it's like I wonder so why people love him so much. But my whole job is to keep evaluating year to year. And every year, I feel like he's regressed a little bit. He just is not taking the next step. And that's because the team's failing him, right? Those shots, those hits have added up to him. And he's not gotten better.

Like I talked about Joe Flacco came in. He took that line from being, I know this sounds crazy. And you can say, well, the offense line got better as well. I agree. They went from the 31st ranked offensive line when Joe Broo went down to the 15th offensive line when he came back. And you could say, well, they got better throughout the season. No, Flacco didn't hold him to the ball so long. He was the reason their stats and looked is terrible.

he helped fix that offensive line. I know it's crazy as that it sounds, but I do put a lot of the sacks and these hits on the Joe Burroughs. So bad, bad, win total. Like you just said, that's priced, so inflated by just all past. Weird. Yeah, so I hate to say, this division, honestly,

I could see myself taking the under on every team and just one team hits big. Like, I could see the Ravens hitting big, right, getting it's over 13 wins, or Pittsburgh somehow with Rogers getting the 10th, 13 wins, or some of the Bengals do figure out, get the 10 or 13 wins. But all these teams feel like you could easily see them all go under.

Like it just feels like it could be a totally lost division here in the NFC North. So yeah, over under, 9.5 feels way too high for the Bengals. Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name,

Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast. People could call in and say, hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad. Jonas and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.

We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.

That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls,

we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen kingdom on earth. He felt destined for greatness. So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world, he doesn't look back.

Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the president. of Turkey. I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking criminal conspiracies I've ever come across. When Jacob met Levin this went to a billion dollar fraud. But with two kings from entirely different worlds, just how long can their empire survive? The largest tax investigation in American history. You need to tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me? Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life. Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Denver, nine and a half, I'll take the over.

We don't know what's going to be happening with Kansas City yet. And when Patrick Mahomes is going to come back, the chargers are, you know, could be 15 and 2. They could be 9 and 8, right? You just, you never know with that team. I like what their defense is. They just added Jalen Waddle. We know Bo Nix will be back. I think that Sean Payton is a good enough coach that a 10 and 17 with this talent is not at all inconceivable to me.

I'd rather be betting the over on this team than the under. Yeah, and just like the bills, this is one of my bigger, bigger bets I've made before this all season, I'm taking their over. Oh, nice. And I do think you're being priced here at nine and a half because, you know first place schedule obviously and this the division is so tough right we think raiders are going to be a little bit better we expect the chargers be healthier and better and the you know the questions we have right now for the chargers is minter like you left what is that defense

going to be like for for the chargers and when I look at this Denver team it really does come down to the O line and D line like I just think they're so good on the O line the D line and then you factor in the fact that on this Boe-necks deal they've been out they've gone out and now they spent money. They've attacked these other positions, where they're trying to build out the defense. They're trying to build out this offense. And, you know, Sutton now on one side of Waddle

on the other side, I love that move. Like they were trying to get AJ, and that would have been a huge upgrade for them. Waddle, obviously, he's not A.J., but he's got a ton of talent, a ton of speed. We'll see how he does for this offense. But, yeah, I think the only real question now running out for Denver is,

can they get a running back? Like, that to me is the weakness of this team. They need a running back. And they've been trying, I mean, everything I've read from all the reports, they've been trying really hard to get a running back. And, you know, they've been outbid by Kansas City and different things just have now worked out for their favor trying to get a running back in there. So, yeah, that went total strictly to me based on their division in the first place schedule.

Like the books are just saying, okay, if Bowenix comes back healthy and he is what he was last year, they'll usually get the 10 or 11 wins, especially Sean Payne as head coach. If he takes a little bit of regression, the book is out on him with these teams, start really known to attack bone nix and this champagne offense that he's running yeah they could easily go under under this right there's just there's a lot of unknowns right now of how they're going to be in year three with bone nicks but um yeah i'm very very calm this Denver team like i think they're another team to get to 11 12 wins like i just think they're going to be really competitive these next two three years because they've drafted so well in the interior that bo necks

contract it's just so cheap they can fill out the rest of the team with that i love when you and I agree. Let's see with these last three teams. We're in agreement. Houston, before we go over them, just give me a yes or no. Houston, nine and a half over. No. Jacksonville, nine and a half under. No. New England, nine and a half under. No. Okay, over three. So that makes me sad. Before I was like, super high because we were nailing it on the Broncos. These are more that could change though, brother. And we were an agreement on the bangles. Yeah.

I guess my take is this. I believe more in the Texans defense than in the Jags defense. I think that is something that, you know, will improve over the next year. And I have to believe that CJ will be better over the next year. even though they haven't done tremendous work to improve their offensive line yet, he's got to be better. He's going into a contract year.

This will be the time he proves that he's going to be worth the 50 to 60 million, that they're going to have to pay him. That's a foregone conclusion. Jacksonville, I'm just, I feel like we saw them improve week to week last year, but how much of that was schedule, how much of that was luck, how much of that was circumstances of who they were playing, when they were playing them, and the injuries that the other teams had.

And New England, I'm just seeing a team that is playing a first place schedule and benefited from a really easy schedule the year before. Yeah, all fair. Like the Texans, I totally agree. Like, their defense could easily get them to 10 wins in that division. Yeah. For me, I'm just taking the underage. just because we're guys sitting right now just because it just feels like, you know,

feels like a very high win total. Like 9 and 8 feels more likely than them getting a 10 wins, honestly, with this team. And, you know, the factor for me is going to be those Colts games, right? If it is no Daniel Jones and Houston does get them twice in September and then October, that's a big deal, right? That's two free wins against a subparap team that Jackson will not be lucky is that. So, yeah, this is another one I'm not rushing a bet. Jacksonville, I totally agree with your statement.

First place schedule. I just, I can't get over how good their head coach is. Like the offense he ran, how much better Trevor Lawrence Scott thought the season. Man, we joke, Lee and Cohen, he hated Trevor. He would go berserk on him on the sideline, being like, this guy is a full and idiot. But Trevor's not an idiot, right? He is smart football-wise, and he did improve his season on along. And that's just the type of team that, like, okay, if I believe in the coach,

I believe in the quarterback, it's hard for me to take their unders, especially in such a bad division. New England, I was on the under, honestly, coming to this offseason. It's like, oh, my God, they're going to get smoked. Their schedule next year is absolutely brutal. The Miami Jets factor, though, is a big deal. Like, if that's four free wins, I mean, Ravel, he can get us five and a half more wins, can he?

And as bad as their offenses to me, like, I don't think they made enough approving to the, offense, their defense might be really good next year again. Like, Braybill clearly went to the front of, front office and said, okay, we can't make a big splash at the wire receiver position to get a guy, you know, to take Drake to another level. Let me attack the defense. Let's keep adding to the defense. They've done that like this all season.

So, you know, another team where I, I'm not made a bet on it yet. I really wanted to be on the under. Now I'm leaning more to the over because it's just, man, that division's going to be so bad. It's just them and the bills truly. is and we've now seen it a hard rock and moved a minus one 25 to the over nine and a half so I think we both can be patient chat and maybe we'll get to 10 and a half and we both together can take the under here that to me 10 and a half that's an automatic bet on the under here that they feel right at 9 10 wins so once it's 10 and a half that would become one of my bigger

bet sticking their under all right so here's where I summarize and feel like I we found some agreement colts under for sure giant under for sure. The bills over for sure. The Denver over for sure. And Cincinnati under for sure. Anyone I'm missing? No, like it.

No. Nailed it, right? Yeah. I think we found mostly agreement. That makes me happy. All right, that's our show. Coming up next week, we're going to talk Major League Baseball opening day. You guys, Simon, I'm freaking loving the world baseball classic.

I think it's amazing. There'll be more March Madness to discuss, too. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume, podcast, network, watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel. Also, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, whatever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, we love you. Hello.

You play to win the game. You don't play to just play it. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

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friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Why are we all so obsessed with romance? On the Radio 831 podcast, join us, Sanjana Basker and Tyler McCall, as we unpack all the trending tropes, fuzzy adaptations, book talk drama, and celebrity love stories with hot takes and sharp guests. Each episode digs into what these stories reveal about desire, fantasy, identity, and how we love now. Listen to the Radio 831 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs.

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