The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 13 BETS: Packers-Lions, Chiefs-Cowboys, Bengals-Ravens, Bears-Eagles, Bills-Steelers and more

Episode Date: November 26, 2025

Happy Thanksgiving, gamblers! NFL betting expert Chad Millman is joined by professional sports gambler Simon Hunter to give thanks for our beautiful audience and discuss the latest NFL spreads for Feast Week. Together our duo provides initial betting picks and predictions for NFL Week 13 starting with Thanksgiving Day as Jordan Love takes the Green Bay Packers to face Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions, and Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs ship off to the Lone Star State to feast on the Dallas Cowboys defense. We also are treated to an evening dessert round, with Joe Burrow returning to his Cincinnati Bengals as they square off against their rivals the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson.After picking through the bones of the Thanksgiving slate, Simon and Chad also go through Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills fighting for their playoff lives against Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers, and a looming thriller between Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears facing Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles as they look to rebound. We also hear about Brock Purdy battling Shadeur Sanders as the San Francisco 49ers visit the Cleveland Browns, and the Houston Texans—hoping for the return of quarterback C.J. Stroud—playing the suddenly human Indianapolis Colts and running back Jonathan Taylor. Chad and Simon also express enthusiasm about Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons visiting the Big Apple to play Tyrod Taylor and the New York Jets, and the titantic LA Rams and MVP candidate Matt Stafford heading to the Carolina Panthers, before wrapping up covering Monday Night Football  between the New York Giants and New England Patriots with a potential QB clash of Jaxson Dart and Drake Maye. #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:08:55 - PACKERS VS. LIONS THANKSGIVING 0:15:10 - CHIEFS VS. COWBOYS THANKSGIVING 0:19:20 - BENGALS VS. RAVENS THANKSGIVING 0:24:30 - BEARS VS. EAGLES BLACK FRIDAY 0:29:25 - TEXANS VS. COLTS 0:36:50 - 49ERS VS. BROWNS 0:43:50 - CARDINALS VS. BUCS 0:46:45 - SAINTS VS. DOLPHINS 0:47:40 - RAMS VS. PANTHERS 0:56:25 - FALCONS VS. JETS 1:01:14 - JAGUARS VS. TITANS 1:04:40 - VIKINGS VS. SEAHAWKS 1:11:54 - RAIDERS VS. CHARGERS 1:12:15 - BILLS VS. STEELERS 1:16:53 - BRONCOS VS. COMMANDERS 1:18:05 - GIANTS VS. PATRIOTS MONDAY NIGHT -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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you don't need much to be rich on Thanksgiving Day. Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys. Pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined. As always, by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, my co-host, professional better.

Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, this week is truly the football fans, holiday week. It feels like if you're a diehard football fan, you love food. This is our week. Thanksgiving week. It's the, it's what you all know, right? You're just sitting around your family watching three tend to be terrible games and it's the best stuff. It's just a it's, it's a very American classic thing now. As I get older, I start to appreciate more and more of just family football on a Thursday. Well, listen, you know I don't like food, but I do love the

football and I do love my family, especially. especially because they have left the house and are now coming back, which is pure, pure joy. I'll also get my dad, his wife, my mother-in-law. It's gonna be a full house here in the Millman Manch. I'm excited. I'm also excited because we gotta do a show today and just a reminder to everybody,

we got the Tuesday show. So in the Tuesday show, we'll have the brass balls, We'll have the Chad's choice. We'll have the Simon Says. We won't have a show on Thursday. On Sunday, we will do our parlay bats and rock and a hard place and sharp calls and your biggest bets. This is kind of like our turduckin show. It's the turduckin of betting shows.

It's full of our favorite bets. Love it. Again, a happy Thanksgiving. We got a turduckin, right? Yeah. This thing here is a debone duck stuffed in a deep bone chicken. stuffed in a D-bone turkey. We're stuffing.

Now you're talking. Do you want to hear my Turducken story? God. Do we have time for a story today? We have to go through a lot of games. We have time. You always say no to my stories. I'll just tell you this.

When I wrote the book The Odds, which is my best-selling book about the world of sports betting that I wrote 25 years ago, a guy from Baton Rouge, Louisiana, a lawyer in Baton Rouge, Louisiana named Nathan Fisher, left me a message on my answering machine.

This is how long ago this was. A message on my answer machine telling me how much he loved the book, invited me down to Baton Rouge. I went because why not? Hung out with Nathan Fisher. That led to me doing the story about big baby Glenn Davis. I remained friends with Nathan Fisher. And every year Nathan Fisher for the holidays would send me a turduckin.

There you go. This one's for Nathan Fisher and the Charduccan. We went three and two last week in our five. favorite picks from our Sunday morning show we won with the Bengals we won with the Colts we went with the Cowboys we lost with the Cardinals and the Lions for the year we are 34 and 26 through 11 weeks listen before we talk to Thanksgiving games in case you missed it our free pickum contest officially returns next week what does that mean that means that we are all going to be picking games from the same exact lines in the same exact contest number one that is the thrill we

again, apologize if you did not hear. We are super excited. And it took a little while because we're in the betting space and there's a lot of regulations when you're going to do a contest and it just takes a long time to get things done. We are super excited that it's coming back. Pickstart week 14. If you're worried, you'll somehow forget and you want to pre-register. Just visit sharp or square dot the volume.com. That's sharp or square.thevolume.com. Sign up four free. We're all going to play from the same lines against each other. We're going to play through the end of the playoffs.

We're going to have a full nine weeks to play a contest against each other. Producer Matt Mitchell is going to cover all the details in upcoming episodes. For now, just go to sharp or square. Dot thevolume.com to sign up, it's going to be a blast. And the more of you that do sign up

and, you know, help us out next year, we get a better contest, better prizes. So even if you're just like, eh, it's so late in this. season. I don't want to do it. Dude. Free show, please people, join up. This is something that's really exciting. We worked really hard behind the scenes. Matt Mitchell, tons of credit to him. Yeah. All credit to Matt Mitchell. Play. Play along. It's a free contest. And the winner gets a trip to Florida and goes to games and gets to stay in a casino. And look up the hotel. It is

sick. I've been there before. This is not, I went non-sponsored. I went down there for some business. And it's, it's legit, a really awesome spot down there, Hard Rock. They do it right. Yeah. Let's do some Thanksgiving football because that's what we love. Green Bay at Detroit, Detroit minus two and a half. Look, early money pulled this from three to two and a half, money coming in on the Packers. And they were the more dominant team on Sunday, if you look at it, in their matchup with Minnesota. But that's not saying much considering J.J. McCarthy, who we're going to dig into a little bit later.

The Lions got beat up and down the field by the Giants and needed a miracle from Jamarrow. from Jemir Gibbs at the end of the game to win. It's a weird game for me. I feel like I want to take the two and a half, and then I feel like that's a little bit of a sucker bet because it's already moved against me and I'm taking a bite that I shouldn't take. Haven't played this one yet.

Yeah, it's unique. I think we're both in the same boat. We got burned by this Lions team. We don't really trust them right now. But like I talked about last week, that felt very fluky with that Giants game. Like I said, you just two trick-played touchdowns. That just doesn't happen.

One trick-play in the game, touchdown, is very rare. I don't even think any other game had a trick-play touchdown. They had two against them, this Lions team. So, you know, as much as I want to beat up their defense, they did have guys streaking wide open and James took advantage of it. This Packers team, even watching that game against the Vikings, And it felt like it was exactly what you said. It felt like JJ lost that game and gifted it to the Packers.

Packers really beat them and played that great. I mean, respect to Wilson, the kid that came in to run the ball, he played really well. I still think there's something a little off with Jordan Love. And there's just something I don't like and trust about him right now. So I joke that Thanksgiving, they have good food and a lot of crappy football. And it's just because it is a chalk heavy day. We've talked about this ad nauseum, but I'm going to read a lot of stats today just to bring up about how unique Thanksgiving is and just about what tends to happen on this exact days. So we know the deal.

Favorites on Thanksgiving since 2004, 51 and 9 straight up, Jed. Okay. That's pretty shocking. The more shocking part is against the spread. They're 40 and 20. That's wild. Favorites going 40 and 20 since 2004 on Thanksgiving. So we joke all the time. It's like the books give us gifts. They give us these favorites. And unfortunately only double digit favorites, which is insane. They're 10 and 0 against the spread on Thanksgiving, but, you know, this is a unique spot. And from the pros I've talked to that, back this back, like you just said, the three was available and it disappeared. It's just about the overtime and all the stats that go against the lines because they

play an overtime game. But my pushback against that was their offense had two snaps in overtime. Like Gibbs took that for a long touchdown, the second carry, I believe, for a touchdown. Yeah. I mean, maybe you could say, well, their defense was on the field a ton. and that is fair. You know, we talked early in the year. It's a bad spot to be in overtime than playing a short week.

And it only happened once this year. It was the Raiders team. We got burned by it. They played the Broncos. If you think back to that game, did the Raiders really keep that game closer? Is that just Bo Nicks? Just terrible, terrible game.

They barely won 10 to 7. Like, it was just very fluky to me where the Raiders scored seven points. They had two turnovers. And they, the Denver couldn't really take it. of it. So, you know, looking at the stats, Chad, it's not ideal. When teams are on, you know, short rest like this, they're 24, 47 against the spread in this exact spot this Lions team is in. Now, I push back against it that we talk about Campbell in his coaching career. Again, it's been tough because this is all, this is stats with Ben Johnson. He's done really well in games where he

loses or it doesn't cover consistently. So in this exact spot, so he's failed to cover in two straight games now, he's 19 and 5 against the spread in the spot. So it's tough or it's like usually the Lions and Campbell bounce back here and they cover in these exact

games. And I've seen it covering a little floor stats too about him being a dog before, I believe he was 18 and 6 against the spread as an underdog. So I get why there is so much Packers love here. I just, I got to trust this Lions team, the numbers move too much. I just think they're the better team honestly than this Packers team. And I think this is a good matcher for them where

I feel like Campbell's going to treat that game as a loss, that game against the Giants, because they were so embarrassed defensively. With the Packers, they dominate. I feel like they're feeling good coming to this game. And the public is backing up that sentiment. Like you said, they're taking a ton of money right now and this number has moved. So again, I don't know if it's going to know of our contest picks. Like you said, you're not too confident in it, but I do really like it now that it's down to two and a half. I think that's a lines number at this point. At three, I could have maybe

been talked into the Packers, but now that's two and a half. I just, you're giving me golf at home where people are counting them out indoors. I just can't pack the Packers. Again, Packers, LaFleur, one and six against Campbell and golf in his career against the spread.

There's just, their only win and cover came this year in week one. So I like this match with this Lions team. This Lions team and the Packers neither of them look right with offenses that are supposed to be amazing. Goff is thrown for a thousand fewer yards than he did at this time last year. He's getting sacked more frequently. The offensive line is not as good and it's injured.

Jemir Gibbs is kind of their dominant offensive weapon. They're really a two-dimensional team if you want to bring in Amon Ross, St. Brown, who's got 75 catches. James and Williams only has 30 catches this year. Sam Laporte is not on the field. So we're betting a Lions team, I think, based on past history and offensive performance. I'm with you.

If I'm betting this game, I'm betting the Lions. I haven't gotten there yet, because I think there's other games. I might want to just invest more in some other games than I want to bet into this Lions game. We're on the bus getting ready to broadcast the traditional Thanksgiving Day game. And John, as you think about all the people around

country sitting down to enjoy Thanksgiving with their friends and their families. We indeed have a lot to be thankful for. To me, there's nothing better. There's just certain things that go together. You know, the turkey, the family, the tradition, football, and we have it all today. One of those games that's getting really, really interesting is Kansas City is now a three-point favorite at the Cowboys, but this line was four and a half. And it's very similar to what we saw last week with the Cowboys, opening his four and a half point home underdogs against a perennial Super Bowl contender.

And now the line has been bet down to four, to three and a half, to three. And like, all of a sudden, it's turning into a Kansas City Chiefs number. Yeah, and this was a game. Talked a little bit about Sunday night. I just immediately grabbed the Cowboys just because,

of that Chiefs Colts game. That to me was the most physical game of the week. You know, as bad as you want to say, the Colts defense is, they play really hard. And, you know, they were really physically offensively against that Chief's defense. And I just talked about it. It's a unique spot. The Chiefs played an overtime game that wasn't like the Lions game. It was not just two plays in a touchdown, right?

They had to drive the field really grueling. And it's a unique spot now. The Chiefs are on the road on a road. a short week after playing an overtime game, which once again, the exact same spot that Raiders team. And just like the Raiders, this is a bad spot. You look at all the data, right? And historically, teams in this exact spot, the chiefs on the road after playing an overtime game, six and 21 straight up, five and 22 against the spread. And, you know, we are always looking for advantages here. I am shocked. This number's moved because I just told you people, like the favorites,

the public usually lines up and bets them pretty heavily. And, you know, like we're talking about right now, we know we're early in the week here, but just seeing what, you know, the public wants to do with this one, I am shocked. I'm shocked. The Cowboys, again,

it was an incredible win that comeback win, but I thought the Chiefs win was better. Like that, they felt like they dominated that into the game and came back, where the Cowboys, as good as they were, they made the plays. It felt like it was the Eagles that just,

totally fumbled that game and let them back in. Like, just everything went wrong. So really unique spot, the fact that this number has been moved, it's going to make it, they're trying to make me take the chiefs year, check, because I'm on the Cowboys. They're talking about, there's still three and a halfs out there in a very public book that you can get. But it's a unique spot in the sense that we tend to fade the Cowboys on Thanksgiving

because they get so much public love. And usually it's not that great of a number. Like, that's the honest truth about it. I think Dak in his career is 2 and 5 against the spread on Thanksgiving. So even in his career, he usually gets too much love from the public and the number doesn't make sense. So that's what I'm worried about here. If this gets a two and a half, we talk about time. That becomes a Mahomes number.

It's three and above you want to fade my homes. And it's a stupid stat, but I do love this stat. The Lions and the Cowboys haven't covered on the same day since 2001. 2001, these two teams have played everything Thanksgiving together. So I'm not going to lie. If the Lions covered that early game, I am not going to be putting more money of this Cowboys team. It sounds stupid and random, but I always love those stats because it is bizarre.

And they both have not gone 2-0 straight up and against the spread on Thanksgiving since 1994. So 30 years, over 30 years, these two teams we play every Thanksgiving. And again, that just says how bad the Lions have been in our lifetime. Yes. But also it just says since 94, we've talked about this Cowboys team, how they've had a lull. Very bizarre. They're things,

the game stats. So I do love the Cowboys, but I was hoping it's going to be three and a half. Unfortunately, at Hard Rock here, it's three. Yeah, it's, the line has moved, I think, too much to really invest in the Cowboys.

And because it's at three, it's right in the line of where you want to invest in the Chiefs. And this number, I don't think anyone should be betting it. I think you've got to wait until you get to one side or the other on this. There's just no edge.

You know, we're trying to find edge. we're not just saying you got to bet every game. That's not the point. And we're not betting games because of random 30-year-old stats when the Lions have been a shitty team for 25 of those years. I'll tell you, Pat, this stuff is looking good and smelling good and tasting good. We've got to dig in and start eating now.

It is good, but you've got to hurry because it's getting close to game time. And we just like to say happy Thanksgiving to you guys back in the studio. You know what? Isn't insane? Betting the Cincinnati Bengals is a 7-100. against the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving Day when Joe Burrow is coming back to play. So let's do it.

We haven't got an official word that Joe Burrow is back, but all indications are that Joe Burrow is coming back. And this line has moved from seven and a half down to seven. Plus Jamar Chase will be back. Plus Chase Brown, who Simon, kudos to you, all flowers. Early in the year, you talked about how Chase Brown was a guy that you thought had a chance to really have an impact and potentially be a huge rushing number guy this year.

And the last five games, he's proving it. Like the only time he's gone fewer than 70 yards in the past five games was it in that shootout with the Bears that the Bengals lost, you know, 47, 42. To me, seven is the number you give this game when the Mar is at full strength. And this Ravens defense is at peak performance. But if you even look at the game last week, week against the Jets. They won 2310.

They covered some of the numbers. But that was not a dominant performance. They still look like they are struggling week after week after week. Give me the Bengals plus seven. Yeah, I love the Bengals, but it's a bizarre number. It's a game that I have major pause on because I just, I don't get why they're still giving us the plus seven.

We know it's probably going to be Joe Burrow. It's most likely going to be him. It did come down. And it came down from seven and a half. Yeah, but that came out after it came out that, you know, Lamar wasn't practicing. He had a semi, you know, what was it, toe injury or something like that? I'm not sure.

He had some type of injury in that. That coach said it's not a big deal, but like we've talked about, none of us trust him right now. We think Lamar's looked off all season. Yeah. He's playing through injuries all season. So technically, like I've talked about, on Thanksgiving, this is a spot to back the Ravens because it's,

you want to back the favorites. It's like, I'm not trying to throw you out on the bus here, but Chad likes the three dogs this week on Thanksgiving. That's a killer. You don't want to be on green. By the way, I didn't, when did, hold on. I have not once said I like the Packers. I have said the, I said they were bet at three.

I didn't say I liked them at three. I said they moved. I said the whole time, I said I like the lions at two and a half. I just haven't bet it yet. Kansas City, I like the Kansas City Chiefs at minus three. I'm hoping it'll get to two and a half. I have not bet that game yet. I've bet one game on Thanksgiving so far.

Cincinnati plus seven at Baltimore. That's all I bet. On Thanksgiving people. You've already here first. He is on all the favorites. Oh my God. That's your my old point, though. You just don't want to,

I liked all the dogs coming into this. You don't want to take all the dogs. It's just historically a bad day to be backing dogs. And that's why I've got to be careful here about this number and the seven because then we both agree. It feels like it's way too high and egregious. and historically it's not a good spot to be fading Lamar. It fits basically this late in the season.

It's this cold out. Lamar dominates these games at home, especially his big favorites. He dominates the Bengals in his career. I mean, let's go back the last six times they played. Joe Burrow is one in five against the spread against Lamar. He's just struggled against him. So to me, what I'm really banking on here is that Lamar is banged up.

He's not as good he's to perceives. And, you know, as bad as this Bengals defense is, we talked about. They showed us a little bit of something last week. They had a bunch of big stops now. Yeah. We're not banking on that happened two weeks in a row, but we are banking on Joe Burrow is a big dog. And, you know, it's rare you get Joe is this big of a dog, which again, should be alarms to us that is this big of a number. But as three points or more, Joe Burrow, 17 and 3 against the spread, covering by almost five points per game in this matchup. So it's a nice spot, nice matchup for Joe historically. But I just have some pause here because it's,

it's a big dog on Thanksgiving. And historically those just do not cover. So I really, before I put any more money into it, I need to know it's Joe Burrow. Honestly, I haven't bet to seven. We talked about it. It was seven and a half, eight at a lot of books where we're opened. I took that.

If it keeps going down, that would make me feel a lot better because we talk about it. You want to be on the public side. The more money your side's on. Like right now, the Cowboys are the public side. Normally I back off of that, but because it's Thanksgiving, that's a good thing. You want to be on the public side on Thanksgiving.

So I like this number right now. It's every book you look at right now, it's 70% of the bets and the money right now are on this Spangles team. So it's the public dog, right? It's a nice spot for the Spangles team. I think everyone just does not trust this Ravens team right now. Nothing to trust. They just haven't dominated.

Even that game when Lamar came back against the dolphins in that first game, they won 20 to 6. It wasn't a dominant Lamar performance. He just hasn't gone full speed, full RPM because of the variety of interest. between the hamstring, the knee, the toe. He hasn't been practicing. You're getting Joe Burrow back. It's just a big number.

It's a big number. Chicago at Philadelphia. The Eagles are challenged on offense. They've got injuries on the offensive line. They've got issues in the secondary. This line is so high it makes me feel like somebody knows something and is making me nervous to bet the bears, especially the fact

that it moved from seven to six and a half. six and a half. There's just something off about this. Yeah, this is my Simon Says, but give me, give me the Eagles minus six and a half at Hard Rock. Simon Says, presented by Hard Rock Ben. I want to play a game. Simon says. And shockingly, I'm going against my model. My model has this game of five. So it's, it still thinks the bears are the right side. I just, I told you, I, I just think this Bears team is bad. And they've been playing against bad competition and winning games.

But the Eagles might be bad as well. I think they're 25th now in offensive success rate. Like they're not that good of a team either. I just think the best unit by far on this field is going to be that Eagles defense. And this is a great match for them at home against this Bears team that, you know, if you can't get the run game going, you're putting on Caleb Williams, that's disaster. You do not want to be in that spot. I think that's what the Eagles are going to put him in here.

And, you know, it's a unique spot. this Bears team, you look at the record like you just said, you would never expect them to be a seven point dog when, you know, you could argue they're just as good as the Eagles team, especially when you look out of the season that's, but it's honestly a great spot for the Eagles team that, you know, most teams play divisional games, and that's really physical and they struggle the following game.

So, you know, since last year, teams coming off a divisional game, 135, 130 against the spread. So five game difference, that's nothing, right? No. The Eagles, they're 10 and 0 against the spread in this spot, covering by 10 points per game. How many years? Two years.

Is that too far back for you, Chad? No, that's perfect. Okay. If it was like 10 years going back to the 1950s, I'd be like, I kind of don't buy it. But two years is plenty. I know you hate history. You would invade Russia.

We know. We'd lose the war in the winter. We know, you'd lose the war in the winter. We've gone over this. But to me, I just, I'm trying to take my phantom out of it, how bad this Eagles team looked. And just look at straight numbers. It's like, okay, matchup-wise, this is a great matchup with the Eagles team against the defense. Chad knows you guys had no linebackers.

You have no, your secondary is totally banged up. They've lived off the turnovers. That's been the saving grace of this Bears team. Anytime they need a short field turnover, this Eagles team, that was the fluke of the fluke last week. right, they had these stupid fumbles, these stupid turnovers that they usually don't make. They're just a team that is not turned the ball over. So you would expect to be a get right spot for this Eagles team. And it's really about how numbers move.

Like I talked about it, if it was still seven, seven and a half, I probably would avoid it. But now that it's come under, it's down to six and a half here, it could keep moving. I'm not going to lie, people. You don't have to rush to bet this one. I'm just going to grab it now in case of professionals do come on this Eagle side because I love this spot. And it's not shocking to see that, you know, this is the week. everyone's just bearing the Eagles. I joked with you. I couldn't wait to listen to WIP on Sunday night because I just knew all these Eagles fans were going to lose in their minds.

It's, you know, one of the worst losses they've ever suffered. And, you know, I think it's the first time since the 90s, the Eagles have blown a 20-point lead in a game like that. So it couldn't be a lower spot. It feels like for this Eagles team that I think the markets overreacting. We've, again, we faded them last week. The two weeks before that, we were riding the Eagles team because the market was overreacting to this Eagles team. So it's, it's kind of a fun seesaw spot and we talk about time the egos are just a different team at home jalen hurts last 34 games 30 30 and 4 straight up at home you know this is going to be one of the more teased games this week so i i won't be shocked to see professionals coming in on this bear side but i i do

love it now that it's at six and a half for this eagles team listen i i'm looking for a reason to bet against the bears so i'm happy to go i want to deal the bears we talked about they're just more fun to bet on but i just it feels like this number's moved too much. Like this probably should be seven and a half, eight, and now you're getting a six and a half. I just can't believe it's moved this much.

Houston at Indy. Indy is a four-point favorite. You tag this one on Sunday night as a game you were betting the Colts immediately. It was at three and a half. And you expected a lot of fandom to come in on the Texans because what they've done against the bills

and that it would move because the pros would like the Colts. And that's kind of, know what happened. We're seeing for there's also four and a halfs. C.J. Stroud is expected to play this weekend. From your point of view, this has to be a bet against C.J. Stroud. Because Daniel Jones has definitely come back down to earth the past, say, three to four weeks, and especially last week in that second half against the Chiefs. So the number that we're looking at at four,

where do we stand right now? Yeah, I'm not going to be the one defending Daniel Jones too much because like you said, we knew he was going to be inconsistent. It is Daniel Jones in the day. But he did, you know, these last three weeks were tough spots, right? He was at Pittsburgh, total meltdown game by him. Then went across the pond to go play Atlanta, came back to face the Chiefs.

Like it has not been the easiest route for him right after that by week. So you expect this to be the exact spot he gets right against a Houston team that what have they were? won five straight it feels like six straight i mean they won three straight with davis mills came in it's it's been very bizarre um how they turned it around and um no they did lose a number that's right because we were on that game i remember it now where we we should have won that game a thousand ways with cj got hurt and houston lost that game that's right but um you know if if you're telling me who has the best unit we both agree it's the texans we know the deal texas defense they're the best but i just

love this matchup for the Colts team inside with, you know, a running attack that can just change the game in so many different ways. And we've seen Jonathan Taylor indoors, he's a different beast. You get him on that turf, that speed. It's been crazy this season. So, yeah, the number is shocking. I honestly, when I gave it out, I was like, okay, the pros will come in on it. I did not see him even a point because like you said, I mean, Hard Rock's at 4, but it's

four and a half of a lot of books. Yeah, that was shocking to me. Yeah. It's tempting. They're begging us now to come on the Texans' butt. Yeah. I'm going to hold firm, like this match with this Colts team offensively.

And we saw a little bit of last week. I talked about it. I think the fact they got Wardbacked defensively, him and Sauce now is there one and two corners. That to me was a big deal. Like they did shut down that passing game for a long time in that Chiefs game. Eventually, Mahomes, he did the Mahomes thing where he scrambles around in circles and eventually guys get open.

Is CJ going to be doing that his first game back after a concussion? I don't know. I see him playing a little timid here. So I definitely like this number on this Colts team. Let's take a quick break from our friends at Hard Rock Bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. There are three things to be thankful for this week, family food and football. And thanks to Hard Rock Bet, you can easily sneak in bets while your crazy uncle goes on his annual rant about the good old days.

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There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got any day of the week. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit. Payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribal, Florida in Florida, offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC and all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona. Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play.

Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling. In Florida, call 1-833 play-play-wise. In Indiana, if you were someone you know as a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem. I'm called 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news.

What's the news, news, huge news? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a podcast. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys?

I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about. what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, Hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines.

We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody's. gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer-beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered.

Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Jacob Kingston grew up

in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen kingdom on earth. He felt destined for greatness. So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world, he doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the president of Turkey. I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking

criminal conspiracies I've ever come across. When Jacob met Levant this plant to a billion dollars, fraud. But with two kings from entirely different worlds, just how long can their empire survive? The largest tax investigation in American history. You need to tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me? Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life. Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis. And I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris.

Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay. Jenchian went. I mean, she went down at three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lina Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Guess what, Simon? Yeah. It is time for Chad's Choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? My choice. We can't run from where we are.

Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? I'm going with the Cleveland Browns plus five and a half at home against the San Francisco 49ers. I feel like I dodged a bullet last night. I nearly pulled the trigger on the Panthers at plus seven and a half.

Like you and I, we discussed it all week And like there was something, we just couldn't quite get there on the Panthers, at least for purposes of the show. And I was so tempted. It was like, I was still debating it up until about 630. And then I spoke to a buddy of mine, Mike Curranz, actually, who, you know, was at the Churning Group recruited me to help them all launch action. And massive Niners fan. and he walked me back on the Panthers. Didn't go exactly as sort of the blowout

that I think we had convinced ourselves as it would be. San Francisco played fine. Brock Purdy, you know, three picks. The Panthers are really the reason why they didn't cover that game. The missed field goals, the picks from Bryce Young. But we now got the San Francisco 49ers on the road. This number is moved from six and a half. So I'm betting into a number that's moved.

but at the end of the day, it's not about Dylan Gabriel being quarterback. It's not about Shredor Sanders being quarterback. It's about the Browns at home as a dog with this defense that is going to be much more effective than anything they saw against the Panthers. We both like this on Sunday night when the Browns were six and a half. That's when I bet it, but I'm still betting into it at five and a half.

Yeah, fortunately, I did take the Panthers. I knew it was going to, but it was just as soon as I won that Rams game and had all that money, I was like, well, I can't just take this on with me. I got to put some of this on the Panthers. And like you said, those picks by Purdy felt pretty good. But he did exactly what we were worried about, right? It was the game after its historical best game of his career. He just totally meltdown and played terrible.

For this game, I mean, I can't believe people are back in the 49ers here. I'm so happy to see this numbers come down, Jack, because it had gone up to six and a half, which I said it might. We talked a little bit Sunday night, but I was like, what pros are hammering this 49ers team on the road here? Like, this is, I don't feel like this is the right spot

to be back and purdy in this game. And, you know, as much as we want to fade Sanders after his big winning, my God, like him, him talking in front of him, like,

I get why this coach won't say his name of press conferences. He must just hate how cocky and arrogant this kid is for, you know, doing the bare minimum in this. Yeah. We have 11, 11 passes or 11 competitions in that game. So, you know, I love Sanders. I feel like the locker room loves them.

The fan base seems to love them. So as much as negativity this coach has brought around it, it feels like everything I've read the reports and seen stuff with the Cleveland team. They've really riled around this kid. I believe they named them the starter already for this game. Yeah, they have. They did. So that portion can be part why the number moved as well,

just because maybe most people have them graded now higher than Dylan Gabriel, because at least he does do one thing very well. which you can't say for Gabriel, which is pushing the ball downfield. He does have a pretty good arm. So, yeah, this matchup, we've talked about it. We just don't, we don't trust this 49th defense. We think they're suspect, even against Carolina. Carolina, I feel like they were moving the ball pretty well.

It was just the Bryce Young turnovers that kept killing him. And, you know, Canalis, all of a sudden, the most aggressive coach in the world is now playing cautious. What the fuck? I mean, seriously. Like, it just, there's no rhyme or reason. I've complained about this with a lot of these coaches this year. It's like that one day they'll do one thing, the next day they feel a different way.

It doesn't feel like they're listening to any type of math or just going strictly off gut, which is not the right way to be. But yeah, for this game, Chad nailed it. Like I love this Brown's team. It's unfortunate. It's still not six. We talk with time with such a key number, but, you know, this game should be closer to four, three and a half.

We're getting some free points here on a four-nighters team that, you know, they finally did it. They covered a game. after they had won a game. So now they're 2 and 15 after it went against the spread. I'm going to keep going after that trend. And I feels like another good spot where we thought the number would catch up for this Browns team at home.

Feels like the books still haven't caught up to it. It feels like we're still getting away with one here on this Browns team at home, just how different they do play. And really diving into it, the way this matchup is going to play out, you know, Ken Purdy beat us. Sure, we know that's going to work out. But you already know they're going to scheme up to take away Christian McCaffrey. I'm excited to see what this offense can do without him because even that Carolina game,

I feel like every time they needed a big play, once again, was McCaffrey getting that third down pickup. What you put it on Purdy, I feel like he's going to struggle. So I love this matchup with you as well on this Brown team. Yeah, it's going to be interesting what this number does. Well, it will keep dropping or will we get a pop back to sticks? So people, if you want to rush and take it now just to be safe, you can. I think there is a world. We get some professional money on the 49ers.

We do maybe get back to the sticks here. So you can be a little patient with your money. money. It is Tuesday. I do think we get back to the six, but I would not be shocked if a ton of professional money came in and bet this one down. We just, like we talked about, we just love this match from this Brown's team. And, you know, as much you want to say they're not playing for anything, that Miles Garrick going for that sack record, that's something I can motivate this team, I think, carry them throughout this cold, dark days of November or December here. So I think this is a highly motivated Browns team on like people perceive.

Oh, so you think Shador Sanders isn't planned to keep them from drafting for Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore or anybody else who is streaming up the draft charts right now. Of course he is. No, even worse. Have you seen the whole thing about how the Rams traded Atlanta's pick? So the Rams have potential. We're going to go to Super Bowl this year and get a top five quarterback in this upcoming draft. Just next level of drafting and GM work by Sneed.

He's the best. He is the best. He is the best. He really is good. How he had his moments. But right now, you've got to say Sneed's the best GM of football. Yeah. The way he went all in, traded the picks, got the super.

Super Bowl and now has rebuilt entirely off of draft picks. It's impressive. Totally impressive. All right. We're on the Browns. Good for us. Simon says with the Eagles. So we're narrowing things down.

Top and bottom right there. Arizona at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is a two and a half point favorite. Majority of bets were coming in on Arizona largely because of the Baker news. I know. And then Baker is sort of there is news that he's potentially going to play. and the news is better than they expected it to be on his injured left shoulder

that knocked him out of the game against the Rams on Sunday night. Part of me feels a little bit better if it was Teddy Bridgewater. Did you know? Teddy Bridgewater has been under 500 in his career against the spread during just one season

in which he was the primary quarterback. That was six and eight when he was the quarterback for the Broncos for 14 games in 2021. That year, As a starter, he went five and nine. Even when he had a record of five and ten with the Panthers, he went eight and seven against the spread.

Teddy Bridgewater, we used to call him Teddy Covers because of how often he would cover when he was a starting quarterback. So, you know, if everybody is going to be fading the bucks off of that bad loss, off of a streak of bad losses, off of a Baker injury, I'll go ahead and fade the public here. and leaning into the Bucks. But for some reason, I don't want to do it if it's Baker. Teddy two gloves.

Yeah, I love this too. I was honestly thinking about making this time and says, but it feels like cheating because I feel like we, no matter what people should be betting this, bucks two and a half right now, hard rock. To me, if it is Baker, you could see this number jump right back up to six, six and a half. Like this number could be moving because that means

they're getting Baker back and Bucking Irving. That would be a huge, huge. deal and I'm with you like I don't mind it being Teddy but you know for them for themselves to protect Baker probably would be the right move right home hold him out of this game get that shoulder right because I don't know if you watched how he injured it he heard it throwing the ball like he had already heard it he came back into the game yeah he looked like he heard it as he was throwing that long throw like he hurt the left shoulder when he was thrown with his right hand and that's like

as someone that doesn't know anything about how to handle injuries or health wouldn't that be the most alarming thing that this guy is in so much grueling pain just throwing the ball is hurting his opposite shoulder. The torque of his body is hurting that much so I don't think he plays, this feels a good Teddy number, right? They've moved it too much in my

thing. Like you just said, Teddy's a covering machine has he lost a step clearly? I mean, that game he looked totally lost and people are giving a hard time. We've talked about it. It's really tough coming into games, ice cold and never taking reps of the one, right? You're not mentally, you're not there and you haven't had the

reps either. So the fact that Bucky should be back this week with Godwin. We saw a little bit of Godwin last week, but he didn't really do much in that game. It was just everything went wrong for the bucks in that game. So I feel like you're totally nailing this one, Chad. Like I said, I was going to make it Simon says, but I feel like it was a little bit of cheating. But two and a half, I really want people to grab that now. I just cannot see it getting any lower than this. No such thing as cheating. That's just good bet in Simon. It's true. I would just feel terrible if we took it and all of a sudden, you know, an hour from now, Baker's out and the line's up to

six again. It's like, well, that helped just me and Chad, no one else. New Orleans at Miami, big move from four and a half to six on this for the dolphins and now it's back down to five and a half. I kind of just want this to come back down because I want to bet the dolphins. I have done nothing in this game and don't have strong opinions on it. Yep. I'll throw dolphins in a teaser. I'll keep it moving. Well, we don't have to waste people's time this one. There's a world where, of course, the Saints can win this one. We all know Miami's a bad team, but we talk all the time. You have Miami at home, 1 p.m.

in the sun. I mean, if they're wearing the whites, the Saints got to wear the blacks. I mean, they're going to be cooked by the fourth quarter. So we always joke. We fade, we fade to in the right spots. This is the type of to a spot you back them. So we're

both in the same boat. We don't really trust it. We don't want to be bent too much into it, but it does feel like it's a good number here of five and a half. Anything under six, I'll be on the dolphins. Los Angeles Rams, The Carolina Panthers, the Carolina Panthers are 10-point home underdogs, and this started going up after the Rams dominant performance against the Bucs, even, you know, in that first half, it was starting to move. It's interesting. It's the second week in row where the bookmakers are showing us how much more they respect the NFC West than the NFC South, right?

Last week, the Bucks go into Los Angeles to play the Rams, six and a half, seven point underdollies. The Panthers go into California, go into San Francisco, and they play the Panthers, seven, seven and a half point underdogs. Now, all of a sudden, the Panthers are 10-point dogs to the Rams in Carolina. So are the bookmakers telling us that the Carolina Panthers, who are a 500 team, would be 16 point underdogs to the Rams in Los Angeles? Angeles. Like, this number is massive. Maybe like a 13 point dog is with a shame. But I, I get where they're coming from. Like, honestly, I'm betting this, this Carolina team. I know, I mean, we both are going to bet them. Like, we love

this number. This feels like a great matchup in a spot for them to bounce back. And as great as that Rams team has looked, you can attack that Rams secondary. That's, that's really to me, their biggest weakness to defensively. Like, there are guys in their secondary that are just young, little green band on the ears and there's there's ways to attack it and coming off his worst performance it's not shocking like who is going to be backing this panthers team so i'm looking forward to hearing all the pros i talk to how they're feeling about this one if they're just avoiding it if you know like me really loving this panthers team because you know if this was 10 and a half of hard rock this

is another game where it's like i could have made this simon sets like that felt like way too big of an overreaction this game my model has that seven so i'm going to have three and a half points of value on this Panthers team. So really unique spot. And yeah, we've talked about this Rams team. It's different than teams of McVeigh's past. Back in the day, you know, not even back of the day, just a year or two ago, McVeigh is no way covering this number. He does not play that way. He doesn't play to blow out teams. Right. We've seen him a couple times this year, play against bad teams and just keep the foot on the gas. I mean, Tennessee one really jumps out where he just really leveled them in the second half. So, you know, the Seahawks game, he pulled

back. He really didn't do much. That Tampa, game. He feel like he pulled back a little bit. Once Baker was out of the game, that offense really didn't do much. So I'm hoping maybe he's back to his old ways chat, of taking the foot off the gas. And even if we're down 24-7 head into the second half, we have a 10 or a 10.5 point spread here. We are a touchdown away from covering. So I just feel like it's way too big of a number. Even, you know, he let us down last night, but they Panthers could have covered that number in so many different ways. They had the opportunity. So it feels like taking the Panthers here is the right spot. We do.

need a lot of things to go against us, a lot of things to be unlucky about for us not to cover this number. So really, really inflated number here on this Rams team, which, again, they should be. They're the odds on favorite. MVP favorite, Stafford. Totally get what the books are doing here because this will be in every teaser, every part of life. I mean, the Rams are going to be getting a hammer here. No one thinks Panthers can pull off an upset. I'm going to have a little money on the chat. This feels like a nice spot to take this team here to bounce back. Well, look, I'm not going to lie to yet. I'm thinking about a Carol. Carolina, Cleveland, money line.

It's gross. I love it. Parlay. That's going to be obscene odds. I'll look that up for a man. But when we were talking about the Browns, I was thinking, this has money line written all over it. Yeah.

And, you know, that Browns game, we've talked about an nauseam. It's just we're simply betting on a defense there, people. We're here. As much crap, I want to get Panthers defense. I think they showed up last night. We have a good team. The Panthers are not as bad. is people keep making them out to be they are up and down i will give people that but um this is like

an egregious number so those two two two lines together chad basically 19 to one jesus that's a nice payout the one thing that worries me about this panthers team is look jac c horn left the game last night puking potential concussion one of their defensive backs had juan jennings in the nuts who knows if he's going to be suspended or five defensive backs you're right i don't think about that So there are some concerns here in the backfield that make me a little bit anxious against Devante Adams and Puka Nukuwa and, you know, eight different tight ends, you know, running across the middle. So there are some fears. That's true. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers.

And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, nice? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it.

We're the first people to do podcasts. Yeah, a pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band.

Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast. People could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Street or Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen, kingdom on earth. He felt destined for greatness. So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob, it's a little bit of the world.

to an extraordinary world, he doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the president of Turkey. I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking criminal conspiracies I've ever come across. When Jacob met Levant this plant to a billion dollar fraud. But with two kings from entirely different worlds,

just how long can their empire survive? The largest tax investigation in American history. You need to tell me what you need. No, is somebody coming after me? Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life. Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game.

This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions,

the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice. on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slica Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok.

The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis. And I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs. And on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on clay. Genshin win. I mean, she went down at three to... Rabakina, but I'm delighted.

She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lerabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports.

You know where there aren't fears, Simon? the Atlanta Falcons at the New York Jets. The New York Jets are currently two and a half point underdogs. And the New York Jets will be our brass balls. Better the Week. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. We agreed on this one from the get-go.

The Jets were just in a street fight with the Ravens. But if you look at that game, they did hold their own. Like the drive charts in that game is so, they're so ugly. Punt, punt, punt, punt, downs, punt, fumble, punt, interception. Like, this was a closer game than the score would indicate. The public is going to come in on Atlanta. They're going to be all over Kirk Cousins because of what they did against the Saints. It was hard not to be, I'm not going to say impressed.

with the Jets against the Ravens, but they were competitive. More total yards, more passing yards, more yards per attempt. The team is just different with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, who is much more comfortable throwing down field and much more accurate. So I'm fine with the Jets at two and a half.

My only disappointment, I won't even say hesitation, is I could see this number getting to three and we can't give it out at three because it's two and a half today, and that's when we're doing the show. And we don't go to a overboard. Taylor, he's a covering machine, but he did only score 10 points in that game.

So, I mean, Justin Fields, Taylor, we don't really care, honestly. But I think we're both in agreement. This is really about kind of what we had last week where, you know, I was able to get us off of it because I just, I respected the money coming out of Atlanta, but it was about the Shuck. I just kept sitting there and being like, damn, me and Chad are back in Shuck as a favorite here.

Like, am I, are we lost in the woods here? It did feel like that way. And as soon as that game started, I don't if they had a stupid fumble or something happened. It wasn't even Shucks fault, but it was just like, oh man, this Saints team, this is going on those games, everything isn't going wrong for them. And it really did. And, you know, props to Kirk.

Kirk did play really well. Kirk is now a two and a half point favorite on the road. That to me is right there. Should jump out to everybody. This is a huge mistake through backing this Atlanta team where when you really break it down, okay, Kirk might be able to get his and move the ball here. The Jets want to run the ball. Atlanta might have one of the worst run defenses in football.

honestly. Like they are so bad against the run. They got lucky last week. Kumar got banged out, got knocked out that game really, really on. And that kind of really moved the way from the run game of the Saints, right? They were like trying to run, Tayson Hill and do stuff like that. It just was not clicking where, you know, Breast Hall, he's been great all season.

And I love this match for him. So it fields back, if it's Taylor, I like both of them. Obviously, my view of Taylor is he's a covering machine. You go through his date. I think he's now covered six straight games. He started and finished Taylor. So he's been great as a backup coming and covering games. And the public continues undervalue him.

So I do agree with you that part. It probably is a better thing to have Taylor. He's just more consistent and safer. But I also love the upside with Fields and the run game against this Atlanta team. Like, their linebackers, 101 with Fields, they will lose that battle every time. Same with Breesall. Like they just do not have the guys with the wheels to stand up against those stupid type of athletes. So, yeah, we both love this one coming into it.

our only hesitation is we'll let's get the three. Like that was the only thing we worried about is we don't want to give out you guys a bad line here, but I think the pros will be all over this one. I could easily see this game, getting down a one and a half pick by kickoff come Sunday. So I love this one. I could easily see this being our contest come Sunday as well.

Maybe we're doing a Cleveland, Carolina, Jets, money line parlay. Maybe that's, maybe we're just all over the money lines this week. Let's just be gross. Let's give thanks. for the opportunity to bet Tyrod Taylor

and Shador Sanders and Bryce Young. You're not wrong about the Saints last week. Like the Falcons all the flowers for Kirk, right? But the Saints had two miss field goals and

turned the ball over on downs on the Falcons one yard line. So it's not like that game and it was ugly for us and it never felt like we were in it, but we really weren't ever out of it until the very end when the Falcons got that game securing touchdown and ended up winning,

you know, 24-6 or whatever. But like that's a, that's a game that the public didn't really watch. They just see Kirk Cousins coming back and winning by 18 points and all of a sudden they're two and a half-point favorites on the road against the Jets. So that's a game. We're definitely going to be betting for sure. Jacksonville, Tennessee. Tennessee is a six and a half hundred dollar. Let's do ourselves a favor. Let's skip it. because we cannot get it right with this Titans team. No, but like our hate for Trevor Lawrence goes further than that. So we'll be with, I'm assuming you'll be on it with me.

I'll be on Tennessee, but like Chad just said, I'm happy to avoid it. But yeah, I hate this Tennessee team so much. So we're back in on a Tennessee team here with the backdoor. But I also feel like it's a game, Tennessee could win. I just can't get over how bad Trevor Lawrence is. Like I went back and rewatch that cards game. So bad.

We didn't cover it. It's just so sickening to me. me. He is horrible. He is horrible. And in this matchup, you've seen those last couple weeks, Jeffrey Simmons coming in. The run defense has improved so much for Tennessee since he's been back. So,

yeah, Tennessee is terrible. We hate him, but ain't no way on Ben Jags and minus six and a half play favorite on the road. So like you said, I just will avoid it. We won't have to discuss it again. Thank God for the rest of the week. But in my pickpoles and everything like that, I will be on Tennessee.

Tennessee? part of the money line parley Cam Ward Shador Sanders Bryce Young Tyraith Taylor we're putting them all in a money line parlay

and we're going to give thanks for all these quarter by the way can't you? I can't no it's it makes sense it totally makes sense I actually don't know

that I've had this much clarity on anything the entire season I'm so ready even if we go two and two that's a great hit I love watching how angry Liam Cohn gets on the sideline watching Trevor Lawrence. Like, I feel like I know exactly what is in his head.

And he's trying to manage his frustrations with a child who does not learn any of the lessons that you try to teach them every single day. He just doesn't learn from his mistakes. It's so bizarre. It's like the number one thing with humans, the reason we've survived for two million years, ever long we've been here is we learn from our mistakes. You make a mistake and you do your best not to keep making that same mistake. His regression, like we've talked about, his regression has been alarming these last three years. It's just crazy.

We made excuses for him. We did. All of us did. We're like, well, it's the injuries, right? It's the coaching around him, all this stuff. And it's like this year, you could be like, well, his number one, number two receivers are out. that could be part of it. Dude, these, these picks are egregious,

just horrible, horrible reads and throws right to the defender's chest. Just no excuses. So I, like we've said, I don't want to keep going how much I am down on Trevor Lawrence. Everyone's down on them. But I think they have like three or four years left of all guaranteed like $40 million per year type of deal with the Jags. Just terrible, terrible decision paying this man all that money. Listen, everyone's down on him. But I think we were down on him first.

I can guarantee like we started talking about. That bad last year. We were both swore them off. Yes. You drank a little bit of the quillet. I will say you took them to win this division. I think I did. A fair fact of you trusted the coach, not Trevor Lump.

So that's where I'll give you the grace of like, well, your read's not terrible. You trusted the coach. No one's trusting Trevor Lawrence. He is just a train wreck. Total train wreck. It's going to be fun to see how they figure out what to do with him. Speaking of quarterbacking train wrecks, Simon, Minnesota at Seattle. Seattle is a 10-point favorite.

The cumulative stats this week and the piling on about J.J. McCarthy and how poorly he's playing has really become kind of mean-spirited, right? They're just piling up. One stat I saw noted that he would have had a better QB rating this past week against the Packers if he had downed the ball on purpose every single time instead of what he actually did in the game. He has last in the league in just about every category. There are some stats going around about his historically bad start, putting him as sort of the worst quarterback start in a decade. And then he mysteriously popped up in the concussion protocol on Monday, which means that Max Brosmer, an undrafted free agent from Minnesota by way of New Hampshire, is going to be getting first team reps. I want to see if I can convince you at some point this week to bet on the Minnesota Vikings Minnesota Vikings

at plus 10 plus 10 and a half against the Seattle team because this Vikings defense is exactly what gives Sam Darnold the biggest problems. Yeah, you're probably right. I'm probably missing on this game. I'm just, I honestly don't want to invest in this game

either side if I'm being honest. I might end up having some money on Seattle. Maybe I'll get there eventually, but this Vikings team could improve with this kid coming as a quarterback, but from everything I've seen and read, I don't know if it's going to be that much better, buddy, honestly.

Like, they just, they put themselves in such a horrible embarrassing. They really have. You know, you let Daniel Jones, you let Sam Darno walk out that door last year. And I think me and you were on the same page where, you know, you more so, you respect KOC, you way more than I do. I love him. You do. Where I am still like this guy is good,

but he is not this McVeigh-Shanahan type that people make him out to be. I still put him a ring below. I put him in the Siriani level where I have questions about this guy and some of the things he does. This to me is on him. You know for a fact. Yes. Coach of the year last year. The ownership came to him and said, who do you want to pay Sam or do you believe in JJ? He said, I believe in nine. Nine. And this guy, I mean, we had a guy in our show. He's a man, Metro guy.

I don't know if his name was Thor or something like. He's a Twitter personality. Yeah, yeah, he's great. He is. He's someone who's been all in on JJ. And I just, every time this guy does something terrible, I think of him. And where it's like, this is the hardest part about being a fan, where you have blind love and, you know, hope for your quarterback of the future.

And I would love to know if even if he has given up yet, because to me, like again, most time I'm going to give a guy a year or two to figure it out. J.J., like Chad says, has been so historically bad. To me, he is deader than dead. He, if you look at his numbers compared to Jermarkis Russell, yes. He's the biggest bust in all of football history. He is worse per play than Jermarkis Russell,

a guy who did not watch tape, didn't watch tape that J.J's worse than him. So, you know, pros got sucked into it. Before the year, professionals talked about, like, you know, coming to the season, how much they loved, JJ, this Vikings team was a sleeper team to them. You know, I think I even made a bet on JJ to win MVP at like 80 to 1 because I had some pros in my ears telling me I didn't know how good this kid's going to be and how I got to trust KOC.

Just an absolute trainer here, Chad. So I get what you're doing here. You're not betting on the offense. You're betting on the Vikings defense that practiced against Sam Darnold. They know Sam Darno's tendency. They should have an advantage here. I just, I think your read is right. You're buying low as well in the Spiking team.

I just can't get there. I mean, my God. that if you can't convert a third and five, how are you going to stay competitive in the game? So I don't know if I can trust a kid to convert third and fives against a Seattle defense that they're really good. They got,

they didn't cover last week because they played, you know, a really shell defense covered two to end that fourth quarter. And anytime K& Ward needed to pick up a first down, he uses legs.

That was to me the reason that game switched. So if this Vikings kid that's coming in, can use his legs and pick up first downs that way, there is a way for you to cover. this number. So I don't hate the idea, Chad. I just, all the unknowns here, I can't back the Vikings with you here. But I do get your read. I like where you're coming from. Listen, I don't know anything about Max Brosmer, except what I read on Wikipedia that he went to New Hampshire and then went to Minnesota. I can't tell you. All I can tell you is that Sam Donald, when he's getting pressure, and we've seen

it with the Rams, specifically, once against the Vikings and once against the Seahawks, That's when he struggles the most. And they have been prone to turnovers this year. And their running game hasn't been as good as they would like it to be. So it's very likely that the game could be put in Sam Darnel's hands. And I'm not saying he isn't a worthy quarterback who can win games for you and is going to put this team in a position to be a Super Bowl contender again this year like you did with the Vikings last year.

But that's just a huge, huge number against a quarter. who nobody has seen. Can they score 14 freaky points in the first quarter? Can it get hard for the Vikings to, for the Seahawks to get to 28 after that? Like, it could be a competitive game, and this Vikings defense is good. Like, it's not a bad defense.

So, like, again, we forget it because there was one three weeks ago, but JJ went to Detroit and won 27 to 24. Like this Vikings team can't win games despite having nothing at quarterback. But man, it is, you need a lot of things to go your way. It is weird for JJ. I don't know how he comes back from all this, you know. And who knows if he's in the concussion protocol because they're like, we got to find a way to get this guy off the field.

Like he's struggling right now and he might not be able to come back from this. I started having visions of, oh, my God, is this a Tray Lance Brock Purdy situation? like if Max Brasmer comes in and he's amazing for the next two weeks, all of a sudden is J.J. McCarthy on the outs? Oh, you know how this ends? It's going to be J.J. versus our guy, Mack Jones next August in camp. Oh, yeah. They're going to bring in someone like exactly like that and see if J.J.

can't beat him out. Give that guy the job. I just, I mean, we're upset about it. I can't imagine the front office in KOC right now just staring in the mirror being like, We had the guy. We let him go for this. Like, it's train wreck. Interesting.

Max Jones, that's interesting. Las Vegas at the Los Angeles charges. The charges are nine and a half point favorites. Chip Kelly, he is out. Doesn't make a difference. I don't know. Do I want to bet this game? No thanks.

Yeah, same. I like, I want to be on the Raiders, but I'm not going to force it. There's tens out there if you want to grab it. But yeah, this is not going to even close to one of my top 10 bets this week. It's just happy to avoid this one and just not watch a second of it. Buffalo at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is a three and a half point underdog right now.

I'm just trying to figure out what the Steelers are good at. Their defense is kind of suspect. Their passing game is inconsistent. There are people in Pittsburgh who are losing it about Mike Tomlin right now, wondering if he has passed his prime. Both teams need this game desperately for any kind of playoff positioning. I want to bet the Steelers because they're home dogs of more than a field goal, and this is kind of when you got to do it.

But I don't want to bet the Steelers. No, it's a game that we have to bet, Chad. You just said it, though. You're getting an undervalued Steelers team against a boosting that's still, to me, being overvalued by the public. Like that, that defense, they have some weeks where they do show up, like that Chiefs game. I felt like they showed up and they were playing fast and hard,

and they were good against the run. And then you see a game like they had last week where it's like they can't stop anybody. And Josh Allen's struggling as well. Like they made Houston and Davis Mills look like a legit contender. Like they looked like they were the better team in this bills team. So I honestly wanted to be on the bills. I was like, okay, this will be a nice bounce back spot. Maybe we'll get the bill as minus one and a half, minus two and a half favorite.

They opened it like three and a half forward, a lot of books. So, you know, pretty shocking. They opened the number where they did. It's a ton of respect to just how great Josh Allen is, but he's just been inconsistent all year. And losing games, you shouldn't lose all year. And it's like, it's just like the Chiefs. And we talk about it.

That's why this year has been so fun. It's not the same old teams we're used to. Because we talk all the time. If you don't draft well, it eventually catches up. This Bills team, they've organization, not that they've wasted Josh's career, but they've never addressed the defense. They never went out and got him the number one.

I mean, Coleman, you know, we took a ton of shit because I was talking about how Stephen, Stephen, Stephen, Stephen Smith said he wasn't a starting receiver in this league. You know, this is, what, two weeks they've sat him now because he's so immature and they can't trust him to block and do things they need him to do consistently downfield. And I, like I said, I wouldn't even be on the spills team, but something just feels off.

They had that horrible loss to Atlanta. you know, they had the biweek. They bounced back, right? They dominated the Panthers. They beat the Chiefs, huge win. But then they dropped that embarrassing game to the Miami. And then they come back and have a huge dominant win again against Tampa that we talked about. Tampa, if they didn't go three and out, probably should have covered, kept that game much closer.

It just Josh Allen hit that next level in the fourth quarter. The following week, Josh Allen couldn't do what he'd done the week before, right? He couldn't be that hero in the fourth quarter. So this feels like another number where the books are saying he's going to be. going to cover you, he's going to get that late cover, and the public is drinking it. They're coming in so heavy on the spills team. This is the exact spot we do back Tomlin and the Steelers team. And like you said, we don't trust them.

Their defense seems off. I do think Josh Allen could get his, but I think offensively with Gainwell and hopefully D.K. is healthy in this matchup. I think they'll be able to move the ball of Steelers team, even if it is Mason Rudolph, who can't throw the ball more than 20 yards downfield or doesn't have the confidence to do it. He still moved the ball semi against that Bears team in different ways. where they schemed it up to get guys open.

So it's not a game I'm banging on the table right now. Maybe come Sunday morning I'll be more confident just because I know it's Rogers and not Mason Rudolph, but it feels that we're just back in the number here in Tomlin. We're trusting a spot with Tomlin here at three and a half. And Fading a Bill's team that just doesn't feel like to me they deserve to have a three and a half hook. They're just so bad.

They've just been so bad defensive this year. And they've just asking Josh down to do so much with no-name receivers. I mean, I just can't get over the fact they failed them. like this. Like, how do you not go get them on number one? They just, it's male practice. It really is. Like, you're just wasting years of what we keep, every year we talk about. He's the top two, top three, number one quarterback in this league.

And it just feels that they're wasting it. They're just wasting it. So I'm, people can hear my voice. I don't want to be on the Steelers team, but it feels like I have to. I have to take this number here and fade the public and all their love on the spills team. It's just way too much number in. I'm looking now, Chad, there were fours when we started the show. They've all come down. There's one four out there still in my area,

but most books are moving back to three and a half. So some early professional money here on the Steeler side. All right. Wouldn't it have been great if Miles Garrett and Josh Allen could have been on the same team? The all-wasted talent team with Josh Allen and Miles Garrett. We should have figured that one out. Let's talk about the prime time games, our prime time spotlight. We all know people are going to figure out a way to bet him.

first one up Denver's six and a half point favorite at the Washington commanders tricky one to really handicap on a Tuesday of Thanksgiving week five six days before the game because we just don't know about Jaden Daniels and there's rumors that he might be able to play he's inching back being a little bit more healthy we don't know for sure honestly it's just hard to have an opinion on this game right now that's fair I'll be on Washington but it is hard to have opinion on it Obviously, Washington's biggest weaknesses by far their defense. They're just terrible.

You'd think Sean Payton, but just have a field day here. Like, this is such a dream match for him scheme-wise. So many ways to attack this defense if he chooses to. And, you know, if it's Daniels, that's why I'm bending now. If it is Daniels, I could see it move another two or three points. It could come down a little bit more. So I'll back watching it early here. But like Chad said, I'm in no rush to bet this one.

The crowd is sunny friends about for Monday night. The New York Giants resurgent, competitive for two weeks in a row with James Winston, New York Giants, took the Packers down to the wire, took the lions into overtime, lost both games dramatically. Now they're visiting the New England Patriots there, seven and a half point underdogs, Monday night football. We don't know at this point if it's going to be James or Jackson Dart. My feeling is it's going to be Jackson Dart. He did practice last week. He traveled with the team. That indicates to me that he's probably going to be ready to go.

I think the real issue here, Simon, is who's playing on the left side of the offensive line for the New England Patriots? Because they had players just being carted off on Sunday in that game that they barely covered against the Bengals. So I know where I'm going to lean in this game. Do you want to say it? Do you want me to say it? Do we want to be disgusting together? Do you want to say it on the count of three? One, two, three.

Giants. Giants, giants, giants. You weren't with me on that. We weren't coordinated. Well, Zoom, it syncs us out, I thought, if we say at the same time. But, yeah, I love the Giants as well. We talked before the show. We almost, I almost made it in my time and says you almost made a chat's choice.

It's really about this defensive line for the Giants against what we are pursuing now is going to be their backup left tackle and their backup left guard, which is a huge deal. That was honestly their biggest strength that felt like when I was really looking at the run scheme board, a lot of their big runs and gains are to that side. And pass blocking-wise, same thing.

It's a side where they can leave one-on-one matchups where they usually chip to the right side either with a tight end or the running back. Now, what are they going to do? Are they going to do more 12 personnel to try to protect for me because this is a terrible match for them, right? They have two different guys on the defense line

of the Giants that make and use a level of, athleticism against him right burns will be able to catch him Carter will be able to catch him like they're they're just as up and just as fast as him so um this nine at hard rock in jersey is already down to seven so since we started the show this line has moved a couple other sevens popping up people if you hear this go grab it go grab this giant steam i think this will keep coming down if dark gets cleared i could see this going below six like that's how big of an upgrade he is offensive as much as we love Winston the running aspect with dart is a game changer right The way they can use his legs.

You see with Kafka, giving tons of credit, he's really schemed up a great offense here these last couple weeks since he's taken over, right? Like, they just feel like they're always kind of keeping teams on their toes and throwing them off that. So, you know, as much as I want to be scared off on this one because it's like we're buying high on James. It's really not appearing that way.

Like a money is from the public coming in on this Patriots team. They're still believing in this Patriots team where I think me and you're in agreements. They're overlooking how big of a deal it is, losing two key starters to offensive line with a young quarterback here. So, you know, really fun game. I could see us end up getting it as one of our five, especially come Sunday if we know it's dark.

We do get a seven and a half in contest. I just love this number so much. So, yeah, hopefully people will hear this. Two of the most public books. I know Hard Rock's gone, but two very public books still have seven and a halfs out there. So I hope people can get that before it goes away. Right now we are looking at Philadelphia minus six and a half

for Sunday morning conversation. Don't forget. Simon says is Philadelphia. I think, I think. I should say from the top, Chad, I don't know, cut you off. We'll tweet out. If anything on Thursday, if Wednesday, tomorrow, Chad reaches out to me or I reach out to him and we say we really like a line and we will put in the contest,

maybe since he gets in there. Because if it is Joe Burrow and Lamar's a practice all week and we're getting seven and a half or six and a half, I don't know about you, Chad. I'll be very tempted to take Sinci. And same goes to the Cowboys. Cowboys three and a half. I'll be very tempted to take that as well. So I will, I promise, post anything.

No shady business. We will let people know hopefully 24 hours before ahead of time if we do set it on a Thursday game. We are a transparent literate podcast. That's what we do. We talked about Indy minus four. I don't know if we'll get there on that. No, it doesn't do me too much.

Cleveland plus five and a half was Chad's choice. I think we love it. We're going to play that on the money line as well. Bucks minus two and a half is definitely going to be in the conversation. Carolina plus 10. it's going to be hard not to have that in the conversation. The New York Jets plus two and a half, that is brass balls. That will 100% be in the conversation.

Pittsburgh plus three and a half maybe. And the New York football giants plus seven and a half go and grab it. We know we'll want to have that in the conversation. Don't forget, we will be back on Sunday, not Thursday, Sunday. When we'll go over the money line parlays we're doing for favorites and dogs, We'll do our Rockin' A Heart Place, bed of the week. We'll do the biggest bets. We'll do an abbreviated sharp calls just so we can get it all out of our system.

Also, we will be bringing the contest back. It's going to start week 14. If you want to sign up right now, go do it. It's going to be a free pick-ham contest that will run until the end of the football season, including the playoffs. We're going to get nine weeks, five bets a week against the spread. As we get into the playoffs, we'll adjust and figure out what the other bets are going to be. We're all going to be betting from the same lines. You're going to compete against me and Simon for fantastic prizes from our sponsors at Hard Rock Bet.

We're super excited to bring it back. Sharp or Square. Thevolume.com is the website. We'll have all the details as well on next Tuesdays. Show, watch or listen to us on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods.

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Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slicalife 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Winning on Clay is an art. The rallies are relentless. And at the French Open, only the toughest survive. I'd know. I competed there for decades. Join me, Renee Stubbs, on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast for no nonsense breakdowns of the biggest matches, the toughest players,

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