The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL Week 14 Bets: Cowboys-Lions, Bengals-Bills, Texans-Chiefs, Steelers-Ravens, Bears-Packers and more

Episode Date: December 3, 2025

NFL betting expert Chad Millman is joined by professional sports gambler Simon Hunter to discuss the latest NFL spreads. Together the duo provide initial betting picks and predictions for NFL Week 14, but first they announce the return of the totally free SHARP OR SQUARE PRO FOOTBALL PICK 'EM CONTEST, available for sign-up now at sharporsquare.thevolume.com where our audience will compete for a fabulous grand prize trip to South Florida, courtesy of our sponsor Hard Rock Bet! Today's betting action starts with Thursday Night Football as Dak Prescott and his Dallas Cowboys travel to the Motor City to take on Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions, fresh off a painful Thanksgiving Day loss. Next, Simon and Chad go through Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills hosting the Cincinnati Bengals with a healthy Joe Burrow, Caleb Williams taking the surging Chicago Bears to face the Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers, and the Miami Dolphins heading to frigid New York to take on Tyrod Taylor and the Jets. C.J. Stroud faces one of his biggest test of the season as the Houston Texans go to Kansas City to play Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. We also hear about the rebounding Arizona Cardinals taking on Matt Stafford and the LA Rams, as well as an injured Pittsburgh Steelers team taking on Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens as Mike Tomlin's coaching job hangs in the balance. Plus, will the LA Chargers continue their playoff run with quarterback Justin Herbert against Jalen Hurts and the struggling Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football? Find out on this week's episode! #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:07:35 - FREE CONTEST FAQs 0:12:40 - DALLAS COWBOYS VS. DETROIT LIONS 0:18:45 - WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS 0:20:55 - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0:28:55 - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS. TAMPA BAY BUCS 0:34:19 - MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. NEW YORK JETS 0:43:37 - TENNESSEE TITANS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS 0:48:55 - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS 0:53:23 - PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS 1:01:08 - CINCINNATI BENGALS VS. BUFFALO BILLS 1:05:05 - DENVER BRONCOS VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 1:11:01 - CHICAGO BEARS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS 1:18:04 - LA RAMS VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS 1:23:25 - HOUSTON TEXANS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 1:26:50 - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. LA CHARGERS All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Have a great day. I heart radio. Why are we all so obsessed with romance? On the Radio 831 podcast, join us, Sanjana Basker, and Tyler McCall, as we unpack all the trending tropes, fuzzy adaptations,

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Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square. Presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad. Millman, I am joined as I am for every episode by BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional

better, Simon, Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? Dude, I feel pretty good. I feel pretty good even with last night losing the Giants game. We went on the Giants for the last game in our final five because we truly believed the luck would turn. It did not turn. It did not turn at all. In fact, it might have gotten worse. You give up a long kick return to start the game. You give up a pump return for a touchdown. You have a kicker

who has everybody simultaneously watching that game saying, never seen that before because he kicks the ground and never makes it to the ball. You've got first downs being called back because the other, the Giants can't stop fighting with the Patriots. It was just a train run. yet you bet the seven because you're never really out of it. And even when they were down 30 to 15 in the second half, you're like, we still got a shot. Except it never really worked out for us. Yeah, hopefully last week was just a bad week for us

with special teams this week. It's a little better because it feels like we had two different games where I can't really blame the offensive or defense in that game as much as you really want to just blame really, really poor special teams play. So that Giants game just absolutely brutal how bad that special teams was in that game. And DART taking hits again. I know that's going to be a big talking point this whole week.

But you see the talent? I think we all see the talent. Oh, yeah. My God, if this kid could figure it out just to live for the next down. I mean, it's just he's so reckless with everywhere he plays. In his interviews, he says things. You're just like, man, you sound like a dumb, naive kid. Like, I get what he's saying.

Like, he is a tough guy. He plays tough. this isn't no one cares how tough you are they just want you to last like i wish eli manning could just explain to him it's like i wasn't the best quarterback ever but i played every game i never missed the game and that was one of my greatest strengths so dart tons of talent but man those hits he was taking that first quarter i don't know about you but it was scaring the hell out of me scaring the hell out of everybody i mean he looked you know like he said what do you say this isn't golf or whatever uh soccer yeah uh listen we went two and three with the contest or with the five favorite

picks from Sunday morning. We won with the Jets. We won with the Texans. We lost with the Browns, the Steelers, and the Giants. You bet those three teams. You get what you deserve, Simon. For the year, we are 36 and 29 through 13 weeks. It's our Tuesday show. We will review the entire slate. You can check out the Sunday AM show. If you want the games that will be our official five after we've had a chance to review everything, don't forget, you can get the shows on Sharp Square at YouTube. Also download from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pots.

Good news, folks. The contest that we have talked about, that we have promised, that we have hoped we could all deliver on, meaning me, Simon, Matt Mitchell. So everybody could be playing the same lines. You are able to sign up right now. So many people got blown out of their survivor pool on Thanksgiving Thursday with the Ravens, the Lions,

the Chiefs and the Eagles on Friday, all losing. This is a great way to re-engage. Consider this your second chance to be in some kind of contest for the rest of the NFL season. Go sign up right now. Make your picks. It's live. It's open.

Sharp or square. Dot the volume. com. Again, go sign up. up right now, sharp or square.thevolume.com. Here's producer Matt with all of the details. All right, Matt Mitchell, always stressed appropriately. We have been getting a ton of questions about the contest that we have been able to officially announce has launched. People can go sign up. Can you please tell everybody how they can do that?

Yes, very excited that the contest is officially live. You can just go to sharp or square. Thevolume.com to sign up for this totally free contest. And you can make your week 14 picks right away. It'll be the same website and your same login throughout the entire contest. How long, Matt, totally free contest. How long will this totally free contest run? Okay, so it starts this week, which is week 14, and it'll run this time through Super Bowl Sunday.

So that's nine total contest weeks. But you've got to hurry up and sign up because registration for this free contest closes at 1 p.m. Eastern kickoff this Sunday, December 7th. Totally free contests in which people are going to win prizes and compete against me and Simon. Matt, tell everyone how the contest works. It couldn't be easier. You just select five games against the spread each week along with one. tiebreaker question. And once we hit the middle of the playoffs and the slates get smaller, we may include some totals and a player proper to just to beef it up. But for right now, it's just

five games against the spread. And during the regular season, deadline to submit your picks will be 1 p.m. Eastern on Sundays. And you can always see where you stand with everybody else using the leaderboard function, which is also at sharp or square.thavium.com. The most important question, Matt, as we have been getting comments on this all year long, will these lines that we are all playing together against each other in good fun, will these lines move? Yes, the lines in this contest, the Sharper Square Pro Football Pickham contest, are dynamic as they've been the last two seasons. So they'll move with the market throughout the week. but be advised, these are still contest lines, so they'll always end in half points to avoid ties.

All pecs must win or lose. So yes, the contest lines will move. Dynamic lines. How or what, actually, are people going to win? What is the grand prize? Okay, so grand prize, the contest winner and a guest will be flown to warm, wonderful South Florida, where they will enjoy a complimentary, two-neutral. night's day at the beautiful seminal hard rock hotel and casino along with tickets to the memphis grizzlies

versus miami heat game on february 21st that is going to be a burn burner very important can people change their picks during the week yes if you want to make any changes to your pecks you just need to cancel your entry and make all five picks again at the bottom of your finished entry the There's a little button that says cancel and play again. You click that, it cancels your entry. You make your picks again at the current contest lines. Easy peasy. Is there a tiebreaker?

Yes. So this contest is only nine weeks long. So the tiebreaker is going to be really important. As it has traditionally been, it will be total passing yards in a selected game, typically Monday night football. In the event of a tie at the end of this contest, the winner will be decided by the lowest tiebreaker differential. So when you submit your picks, do not forget to put in your tiebreaker answer.

Matt, will all of the games be included as available contest picks? So we do not include Thursday night football in the contest we never have, probably because those games are an abomination. But generally speaking, all other games will be available to choose. Who can play in this contest, Matt? Okay, you just need to be 21 years or over. older as of today and located in the United States. So sorry, Canadians and Brits and all our international listeners. The only U.S. states that are excluded are Rhode Island and Washington State.

Tell me why. They have tricky rules about free to play games. So like if you live in Newport or Seattle or whatever, call your congressman. I don't ask me. I have no idea. But I wish you the best of luck anyway. All right. Well, listen, thank you, Matt, for the FAQs.

Thank you for all the work getting the contest ready to roll. Thank you to our sponsors at Hard Rockbet for working through the entire challenging regulatory process with us so we could bring this to you guys. Better late than never, go sign up for the contest. It is open and ready to roll right now. Everything's live. We're all playing it together. These are going to be the lines that Simon and I refer to and the games that Simon and I refer to for the rest of the year. No more stale lines.

All dynamic. we're all in it together. Let's kick things off, Simon. Thursday night, football, Dallas at Detroit. Detroit is now a three-point favorite's come down from three and a half. Obviously two teams that had wildly different experiences on Thanksgiving with the Lions,

not able to get over the top against the Packers. The Cowboys just completely having their way with the Chiefs. Expectations changing for both of these teams dramatically. I got thoughts on this one, but I want to get your take. Yeah, it feels like we're supposed to just be hammering Detroit here. I mean, this is the Detroit line, this is a Detroit game. But the more you stare at it, like you just said, it's two teams going in totally different directions.

It feels like, and, you know, football momentum does shift. But the injuries for the Detroit, it feels like at some point, and it really has reached that point that they have caught up to him right it's like now they're saying i'm on ron rott st brown might be out and it's like okay golf now is lost his number one tight end his number one receiver this is already a guy that needs his weapons to succeed on the flip side with douse it feels like every week picking cd and deck all that that three just keeps getting better and better i mean you can throw ferguson in there he's been great for them at the tight end so i don't know is it better i just i have to bet the lines or nothing else

i hate this game i hate i hate it so much i'm so glad our content we can't make this a pick because I really want to take Dallas of three and a half. Like there's three and a halfs out there. But man, is this number just off to me? Like my motto has just said one and a half. So it's a Cowboys line. If you guys want to bet with the computer, I think it's just like with the public.

It's like all the injuries, you can't overlook at this Lions team how banged up they are. But I just, like you said, maybe I am to keep living in the past of this Lions team. It just feels like this is the exact spot. The Lions put up 50 against, you know, a defense that as great as people make them out to be, I don't know.

I still have questions about that secondary of that Cowboys team. So it feels like a good spot for Lions, but I just can't get there, Chad. Yeah, I wanted to be on the Lions here. I don't want to bet the Cowboys because it's just the public play and the Lion is moving in their direction. The majority of the bets are on the Cowboys right now. And my issue with the Lions,

and we've bet into the Lions because we have believed they're going to turn it around. And this is going to be a lion's spot. going to be at home and this is when they tend to make themselves get healthy and turn things around but here's the problem their offensive line just isn't as good and we've always bet on their offensive line everything for Detroit's success in every single way starts with their offensive line they do not have the same interior offensive line that they had last year they have lost frank Ragnow they have lost Kevin Sitzer who's starting for Tennessee now

They don't have the same talent there. And the people they put in place haven't been as good and are injured. And that interior line is where everything starts. It's how their running game gets going. It's how Jemir Gibbs gets up through the middle of the line and then is able to break runs outside and beat out defensive backs to the sidelines and to the golem. It's how they are so good at converting fourth downs. If you look at their games, they're not converting fourth downs. and that's giving the opponent short fields

and opportunities to score that the Lions can't come back from. And it also isn't protecting Jared Gough up the middle, which is why he's been so wildly ineffective. And the Cowboys know of Quinn Williams. In the middle of the defense of the line. So why we're not been to the Cowboys here. Like you just said, it just feels like this is why we should be

been the Cowboys. That's why I'm going to have a hard time with it. It's like, my computer is telling us to do it. Yeah. No, we should do it. And the better in us are just scared off because it is so public. Just everyone has the same process is up.

It's like even just going through their schedule, you know, they beat that Tampa team 24 to 9 before their biweekan. We all know that was a banged up Tampa team. Is that really that good of a win? Since then, they've lost to Minnesota. They beat a backup with Washington, lost to the Eagles,

beat up a backup with a giant, and then lost to the Green Bay Packers by what could have been double digits, right? It was only a touchdown, but it felt like Green Bay really had their way in that game. So maybe people are right. We're acting like this team is still a top four, top five team and then I've seen maybe they're kind of a seven, eight, nine team that's going to miss the wild card. And that's what they are.

So this is really unique. It really is where it's like we both kind of know we should take Dallas, but the better is in us. I've seen this game before. And we've seen Cowboys just totally lay an egg here. So it's a really hard one to get a read on. Also, I will say they're secondary. They refuse to stop playing man to man. And I think also you mentioned that Bucks game, which is really smart because in that game, their secondary was banged up and they were playing so well in man-to-man.

That's an image that we all have in our heads from a primetime game. And for you and I who bet on the lines of that game, we were just so excited to see them turn it around and do what they did. CD and Pickens against man-to-man coverage when Terry and Arnold, who was supposed to be a shutdown corner, is out. Kirby Joseph is injured. Amique Robertson is the one guy they count on and he's really a slot corner who's better off in zone than man to man. I love his heart, I don't love his size,

they don't love his speed. Like, there's a lot of things wrong here and we keep thinking that it's gonna be the Lions team of old and it's not. And I wish we had been thinking like that for other games in the past. I agree with you. I don't wanna be on the public side here.

That's what's stopping me and maybe we're just being stubborn. It's true. Washington minus one and a half now at Minnesota. Reminder. Sunday night we said take the commanders when they were underdogs. This line was going to move. It moved.

It did exactly what we said it was going to do. By the way, nice job, Simon. We had the commanders plus six, plus six and a half against the Broncos. Worked out exactly like we planned. We expect to get J.J. McCarthy back this week out of the concussion protocol. We also expect to get Jane Daniels from his dislocated elbow. Wow, this Vikings team is in disarray right now. They cannot find the answer of how to even respond about how bad their quarterback situation is.

Who's at fault? Is it the GM? Is it the coach? Did JJ McCarthy say to Sam Darnold, I wish we had you back? Like, it is chaos right now in Minnesota. Yeah, but at the same time, it feels like they have to play. like I've talked about. They just got to,

they already threw them to the wolves early in the year where they basically put them in there. Yeah. I mean, just had to drop them in after you come off an injury. And it's the same thing here

where it's like, yeah, they could hold him out of concussion. What good does that do? They need to see if this kick can start improving week by week, right? Because right now it's just rock bottom.

We all think he's made out of the league in two, three years. So it's a bizarre line. Like you just said, this has flipped. There's a couple of books right now. You can still get Washington

plus one and a, half, Chad. So this line's sees on, and I think we're both in agreeance. Like, if Daniels is back, how is this not a great spot for the commandant? Right? You have Terry McLaren back and healthy with their quarterback, Daniels.

That's a nice combo. Like, that's a combo that should be able to push the ball downfield against of liking scene. We see that they are good defensively, but they're not what they were last year, right? They're not this juggernaut takeaway machine. We've seen them be up and down this season defensively. So for me, this is a very bizarre line.

Like we both agree, if it's Daniels and we're getting plus one and a half, especially in our own contest, we can lock that in today. That's the type of line we sit on and we don't move because it feels like it could easily get to minus three, minus four in Washington once it's confirmed that Daniels is back because I still think within the organization of Washington, there's some people that don't want them to play this year, honestly. They're just some people have been there since the RG3 experience

and they're very weary of trying to have a kid come back too early from an injury. And again, this isn't Daniel's first injury of this year, right? He's missed a couple of games already this year with injuries. So it's a unique spot where I know people are thinking,

come on. Like, I get to get competitive, but is he really trying to rush back to lead us to what? Like, we're out of the division. They're not going to catch Dallas or the Eagles. It doesn't really make sense from him to rush back other than

he's a really high-level competitor and he just wants to play Daniel. So it is us as betterers, we're betting. on him being back this week. Because we heard he could have played last week, apparently. Like he was cleared enough. And they held him out that game.

So I still like us taking it here, Chad. I just don't get the line. I don't get why there's still plus one and a half's up there where everyone knows he's probably going to be back on the other side, JJ. He's a train wreck. Like we've seen him play. Could he put it together a good game? Yeah, of course.

We saw him against that Lions team where a good game for him is just not making stupid turnover. So I just, I'm a little lost on this one, but we were in agreement. If you can get the one and a half plus one and a half on commanders, how do you not bet that right now? Yep, totally agree. Should I make it Simon says?

I feel like you should make it Chad's tweet. Should I make it Simon says? I feel like I'm looking live at Hard Rock here in Jersey. They're plus one at Hard Rock. Commanders. If you can get the commanders as an underdog, I think you have to get it. Yeah, I'm going to make an executive decision, Simon says. I want to play a game.

Simon says. Simon says, presented by hard rock bet. It's going to be the Washington commanders at plus one. Go get it at the hard rock books right now. Simon says, presented by hard rock pecked. Another game, short line, Indianapolis Colts minus one and a half against the Jacksonville Jaguars. So I bet this, I bet the Colts minus one and a half. Honestly, it's a bet against the Jags and it's a bet against Trevor Lawrence.

And it's a bet because, you know, my model likes the Colts in a spot, a good team off of a tough loss against a good team that's off of a blowout. I tend to think there's going to be a little bit more value on the team that is off of the tough loss. And this is all of a sudden become such a challenging situation for the Colts because the Texans have a ton of momentum. them. The jags are now right with them for first place in the AFC South. And we know about the Daniel Jones broken fibula, shattered fibula, fractured fibula, whatever it is. And we also know that we don't know when it happened. And he can't say when it happened. So he might have been playing great all season on an injured leg. But whatever the case is, since the by, he had a good first half against the Chiefs and then cratered in a game in which the Chiefs came back.

and won. He had a very mediocre game minus some gorgeous passes in the Texans game in which the Texans won and the Colts could not get it done and convert at the end of the game when they still had a chance to win that game. Is it the leg? Is it the Chiefs defense? Is it the Texans defense? Sauce Gardner will not be playing in this game. Like you got to feel for this team a little bit. They were riding so high. They went all in. They went to get Sauce Gardner. Now he's out for an extended period of time. Jones is playing on whatever he has with his fibula. I'm on the Colts, but I'm feeling less confident about it than I was the other day.

I really bet it because I thought the number was going to move. I bet it two and it has moved, actually. There's some twos out there now on this Colts team, but I got to go against it. I got the Jags a minus three in my model. So apparently this number is way off, an incredible jag spot. And I was like, okay. I'm, we're definitely overlooking the Jones injury because like I, I have been moving his number down. And every week, it's, it's been working for us going against them.

Because like we said, they've just, something's been off with them and they have not been clicking. It's, it makes sense, right? They only could go so far as Dana's going to go because these teams just taken away, Taylor. And, you know, looking at this matchup, I was just like, okay, if the weakness now is going to be, once again, the cold secondary, isn't this when you want to back this Jags team where, we've seen with Brian Thompson Jr. back and Myers, that's a pretty good tandem there. Like that's a nice one-two receiving core for Trevor Lawrence's, you know, as bad as he is,

those guys are just wide open against certain defenses, right? They're just not going to have covered corners for both those guys. And even the trends going back a long time here, we always know we always back the Jaguars against the Colts. That's why I was like, oh, finally, we will be able to back the Colts against the Jags. Because it's just historically, the Jags, own the Colts.

It doesn't matter who the quarterback has been. Like going back to, I think it's 2015, 2016, this Colts organization, 3 and 16 against the spread against the Jaguars. Now, you can be like, okay, well, give me some Trevor Lawrence stats. How has he been? He's actually been shockingly good as a dog, too, Trevor Lawrence against the Colts. You know, it's pretty alarming him against the Colts and the Texans in his career. He's 5 and 2 against the spread as an underdog covering by him with 7 points per year.

game. So Trevor, we're kind of seeing a pitcher here when he's divisionally as a dog. He plays really well. He plays to that number. And we've seen as a favorite, we tend to fade them. And, you know, Colts, if they're at home, I can maybe get talked in this spot. But the fact they're on the road, it's another bad spot for them against the Jaguars. They're one and nine in neutral or away games. So for some reason, the Colts have just struggled against the Jags. Even when the drags have been awful. Like I'm talking if you go back, the one year the Jagu's had one win with Guard and Minchew, me and Chad bet on it. They upset and beat the X Cold Steam.

I think the Colts are an eight-point favorite, and they lost outright. First game of the year. Only game they lost. There's weird divisional stuff, Chad, right? There's always that weird stuff with divisional foes. And like I've said it this year, it might not happen, but the NFC East has not had a repeat champion. You're seeing the Eagles absolutely meltdown.

Cowboys are still plus 600 to win the division. Go get it. But to this game, I'm just, I, I was like you right away. I wanted to be in the Colts. My model told me to stay away. I'm trying to trust my model more. And even hear the trends tell you,

the Jags tend to play really well against this Colts team and match a ball form. So, you know, I'm going to wait and see what's going on with the injury report. But if the Jags, their number one, number two receivers are healthy, I think that's enough to give me a lean here to this Jags team where I think it's about trust the number I take them as a dog. So you might be able to get twos out there.

People, like I said, the Colts, they're being better right now. And I've seen some professional money coming on them. Like they were a pick at a couple of books. Now they're at minus one, minus one and a half. A couple of already public books are at minus two. So if you're like me and you like the Jags, be patient. You may be able to get two, two and a half on this number.

Jacoby Myers, even in a couple games, has made a difference. Just as a sort of an inside receiver that Liam Cohn can lean on in ways that Brian Thomas was not able to do. And obviously Travis Hunter being out has not been able to do. So that could also be a sneaky difference. You know, he's had some big games already for them that maybe we're undercounting. Who knows? I bet the Colts being very uncomfortable.

I'm happy to buy out of it. I have no strong conviction on this game. So good one. I was shocked to say, see that my model thinks it's four and a half points off. So that right there was like very like, oh, I am, we're all underestimating this Jags team. They're literally leading this division. They played well all year. I think we all just hate Trevor Lawrence.

It's just... Hey Trevor Lawrence. It really is. I think it's just simply a Trevor Lawrence bias we're all going through. So this probably is a good spot to back this Jack's team. New Orleans at Tampa Bay, this line has moved up from eight and a half to nine at Hard Rock. I think there's still some eight and a halfs out there. I don't know.

Like this line was three and a half when they played a month ago in New Orleans. And the Bucks won that game by 20. But the Bucks did not look good in winning that game at all. It was 7 to 3 at the half, and the Bucks only got that touchdown off of pick six. 16 of their 23 points basically came on turnovers or short fields. So this was a early indicator that the Bucks are not as effective as they had been. Now, of course, obviously, they didn't have Chris Godwin. They didn't have Bucky Irving.

It's a different team. The Saints are not Jacobi Brissette and the Cardinals. The line has moved in the Bucs direction. I really don't have a read on this game. I'm waffling because I don't have any thoughts on this game. Another game I hate because I have to bet the Saints where it's like I wanted to be on the Bucks. Like you just said, I watched that Buccaneers game because I had to do some of the money on. And Bucky Irving is so good.

He's such a game change with that offense. Just his kind of. contact his move within when it's really tight, getting downfield. I mean, he had a touchdown call back on just a horrible hold by one of his teammates where it's like he had a walk-in touchdown. It's just a different offense when he is in there. And, you know, Godwin, if you didn't have that bad drop, they easily cover that number last week. So it's a Bucks team that I assumed the public would be off. They'd be undervalued.

But no one believes in the Saints team. This number is probably off by two points. Like I, again, have this at seven. So it makes sense that the public is just totally off this. Saints team, the fact that did they really believe in them covering against Miami? Was that really just too playing horrible and keeping them in that game? Miami dominated that game.

Yeah. They could have put them away and they let them hang around. And I think some people said they got burned because I think they have three and a half on that two-pointeary. I never saw the three and a half. I saw five, four and a half all week on that same time. Never saw. Never saw.

I didn't even see five or four and a half. I never saw anything lower than five and a half because I wanted to bet the dolphins and didn't pull the trigger because I just felt like it was too high. Yeah. So again, you dive into the trends too. Like looking at the trends here for this Saints team, I thought it was really interesting that I felt like we always backed them in their division as a dog. And, you know, we always have to make ourselves bad against them, right? Because they're always going to be blown up numbers like this. I mean, they have not had a relevant quarterback since Drew Breeze. So that makes sense. But it's crazy how Undervali they've been to the general public. So since 2018, so I feel like that's the end of the Drew Breese error. They're 15, 6 and 1 against the spread on the road against Danfc South. That's 8 and 0, chat, as an underdog. That's crazy. So they've just been covering

machine as an underdog in their division because it's what we all think, right? They're just a bad team and they just seems like every week they get rolled, but they keep games close, right? Even that game last week, they're getting dominated. They somehow pulled it back and then to keep it close and cover that number. So I thought

that was very interesting. They've just been covering divisionally, especially in the sense that it feels like they've been so irrelevant. since Drew Brees. So, yeah, that one jumped out to where I was like you. I thought I was going to be over Baker here back on this Bucs team once again, because I just loved seeing their offense move down, I'm up and down the field last week.

But what I really went back and watched, there's still a little bit of inconsistency with Baker. You know, not the blame guy went on that drop, but it still feels like a mecca, Bucca as great as he was to start the year. He's not been that guy these last couple weeks, right? It's a lot to put on a rookie to be your number one. So I just have some more questions about this Bucks team at this number. I do this thing.

So I'll take the Saints here. That's such a huge number divisionally. But it's another game where I don't know if I don't force it to be one of our fives, but I do think the number is a little inflated here. Yeah. Like my point about saying that it was three and a half a month ago on the road in New Orleans, you know, just by the math, it should be about, let's say, seven or eight when you just said it's about two points off.

So let's say it's seven, seven and a half. It just feels like too big of a number. And I think people are too enthusiastic about the return of Godwin and Bucky Irvin. And they're downplaying the Saints. But I just have no idea, are we going to get Tyler Shuck, who's in the second half and is slinging? Are we getting Tyler Shuck in the first half who was down, what, 196 to Miami? I mean, the beauty of getting a big number is it's a big number. And this Buck's defense actually hasn't been very good.

I do want to know one thing. I want to know if Alvin Camara is going to be playing because I do think the rush defense for the bucks it's been a little bit suspect. We've seen terms run on them. So if Alvin Camara is back, that makes me feel a little bit better about betting the bucks.

I do not have the strong conviction on betting this number that you do, even though I know it's the right side to bet. That's right. I mean, I literally, I had a pro text me last night. It was like, you and fucking Chad. You had Dart, Rogers, and Sanders,

as the three quarterbacks in your guys contest that lost. Yeah. I go, that's fair. Totally fair. Fair criticism. Yeah. So we're going to go with Shuck? That's what we're doing now.

Trevor Lawrence. Like, I know. I know. Why do that when, Simon, we've got Miami visiting the New York Jets and the New York Jets are two and a half point underdogs. And we could go with Tyrod Taylor. In fact, Chats Choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet is going to be the New York JETS. Jets, Jets, Jets. At home is two and a half point underdogs

against the Miami Dolphins. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? My choice. We can't run from where we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? I did bet the Jets at plus three.

We talked about it on Sunday. So the line was moving literally during our show. We said live, if you want to get the Jets, get them right now at plus three. I'll still bet him at two and a half. just because I think they're the right side here. I'm probably going to bet him on the money line too, as I did last week against the Falcons.

Do you remember, Simon? Do you remember their last game against the dolphins in week four? It was a Sunday night game. You and I both bet the Jets. Do you remember anything about that game? I don't must have been blocking it out. That's crazy. I don't remember it, honestly.

That was the game where the, dolphins open the game with a field goal. The Jets then went on a, I think, a 12 play. Oh, I do. One of fumbles. 12 play drive, 82 yards. Yeah. Braylin Allen literally is crossing the goal line.

He's millimeters from crossing the goal line. Fumbles the ball. The dolphins recover. They go on a 15-play 94-yard drive. They're up 10-0. The next drive, the jets are, Driving again, Justin Fields fumbles the ball. All of a sudden, it's back and forth, back and forth,

but the Jets are never really able to get the game close again. They lost 27, 21, but they were generally down two scores the entire game. So we were never coming close to covering that game. It was an excruciating giant-like performance. Until last night, it might have been the most frustrating game we had all year. So you're telling me that when the Jets were two and a half point underdogs on the road in Miami, now we got Tua in 40 degree or less weather. Not playing well.

He's the reason he completed five passes in the second half of that game against the Saints, and he's the reason why they were able to come back this past week. Now I got Tyrod Taylor, who's a good runner. I got a Jets defense that is performing better since they got rid of Sauce and Quinn and Williams. and they're still two and a half point underdogs now at home in shitty weather in December for Tua who never performs that way well in those conditions

makes no sense to me. Give me the Jets. Going back to the well. I don't hate it. Shop around people, there are some threes popping up out there. You know, not that we got away with the last week, but it's just, it's only like having that free when there's so much chaos in these Jets games. But we talk a little bit about it.

Tyrod Taylor is just consistently underrated by the market. He has been his whole career. I mean, who, I'm trying to think of a fan base. I just love some. I guess the only one I can think of is the bill is right. He got him to the playoffs. That was absolutely magical. Ravens, he was a pro bowler, I think.

I think that was a Hunley, but it could have been Tyra Taylor. But it's just, it's crazy. And just going through his stats, this is all gambling stats, obviously. He's 37, 21, and 4 against the spread in his career. So 63%, pretty insane. And we talked about it. It feels like these last couple of years, he's been an absolute machine of covering since 2022.

He is 7-0-1 against the spread and his last eight starts. So guy just undervalued by the market. We'll keep bedding it. But I'm on the flip side of you. Like you just said how bad Tua played. I've seen this all year with Tua. He just lays eggs like that. And the next game, he's just automatic.

He's so up and down right now. And it's why it's, I think Miami fans are in the same boat as everyone else where it's like, okay, his peak best year was two years ago. It's just gotten consistently worse ever since then. And it feels the same with this year where he's just been so up and down. So I like to play, even though it says technically I bounced back to have to have to have to have. I think Chad's nailed at that the weather in the northeast right now is brutal. And we've seen it every time it's bad. It's for two outdoors in the cold.

He just struggles. Like the numbers back up as well. He's just bad in the bad weather. You know, it doesn't matter if it's rain or not. If it's below 35, Chad, we know the deal. If it's below freezing, he just cannot win those games. So I love it. We both talked about.

We love Tyra Tett. It's just get the three. We're talking to Hard Rock right now, which is two and a half. But I'm seeing a couple books up there with the three. So hopefully you can get that. It is supposed to get colder in that game as the game goes on. So, yes, let's back the Jets, JETS, Jet, Jets, Jets, Jets, Jets, and also let's get a little bit of a word from our friends at Hard Rock. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet, and they've got big news.

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call 1-800 gambler. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast?

Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys?

I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a... call about what we should call it. We were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, Hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm CJ Toledano and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall.

And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing. That man, hell get to flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers while he got the ball. Like, you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah. You figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball.

So listen to Point Game on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Deanna Maria Riva, actress, mother, lover, and a Gen X woman walking through life, one hot flash and hormonal crying jag at a time. You ladies know what I mean. I'll bet you a perimenopausal chin here you do. So let's talk about it. Join me on my new podcast. How hard can it be with Deanna Maria Riva, where I call on my GenX squads from Ohio to Hollywood

as we navigate midlife's most fantastic BS. All of a sudden, I'd had hanginess happening on my own. I was like, what the hell is that? I was married when I had her, so I didn't even consider how empty that mess was going to be. Mood swings, night sweats, fupas, sex drive. Wait, what sex? Dating at 45.

How can it be getting naked at 50 with a new guy? That one's kind of hard. Well, that's lighting. They say we can't polish a turd, but we're sure going to try. So let's get blunt with laughs, tears or tears of laughter, and dive into it, unfiltered and unbothered and ask, how hard can it be? I cannot believe I'm about to say this out loud in public. Listen to How Hard Can It Be with Diana Maria Riva as part of my Cultura podcast network available on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Saigon, the story of my family and of the country that shaped us.

The United States will not stand by and allow any power. However great, take over another country. From My Heart Podcasts, Saigon. Please allow me to introduce Joseph Sherman. You don't think I'm serious about a free Vietnam? I should stop talking so much. I like hearing you talk. One city, a divided country, and the war that tore America apart.

This is for Vietnam. I've taken a hit from Japanese ground fire. Deterate me. They're pouring petrol all over him. He's holding matches. I'm on a landmine. For three, die. Let's get out.

Freedom, Mom, hit nine. Saigon, starring Kelly Marie Tran and Rob Benedict. Sting, here's madness. The world should hear about this. There's a fire coming to this country, and it's going to burn out everything. Listen to Saigon on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. There are times when the mind becomes a difficult place to live. This is David Eagleman with the Inner Cosmos podcast, and for

Mental Health Awareness Month, we're dedicating a series to understanding the mind when it struggles. I'm joined by doctors, researchers, and those with lived experience. We'll talk with singer-songwriter Jewel about anxiety. I started living in my car and then my car got stolen. I was shoplifting. I was having panic attacks. I was agoraphobic. And making it through hardship. To be present is a learned skill and it's hard to be present. We'll talk with John Nelson. about clinical depression and the brain implant that saved his life. What I learned is that procedure made me happy because I'm disease-free. And we'll talk with leading experts like Judd Brewer about anxiety

and John Hirschfield about obsessive-compulsive disorder and the science of how the brain can change. This is a month of deeply personal and honest conversations about what happens when the brain goes off course and what we can do about it. Listen to Inner Cosmos on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The Tennessee Titans are visiting the Cleveland Browns, and there are three and a half point underdogs. And I think last year, if Cam Ward was playing Shador Sanders for Miami against Colorado, this would have been like the marquee matchup.

It would have been a prime time Saturday game. We would have gotten all the pageantry in the world. Instead, it's a game in which the models are telling me to bet the Tennessee Titans, and I want to tell to the models to fuck off. Because I want to spend one Sunday not having to be engaged with or watch the Tennessee Titans in any way. The line is moved in the Titans direction. I saw some four and a halfs, definitely four. It's now three and a half.

We know exactly what we're supposed to do here. God, we're supposed to take the Browns. my God. Like you just said Yeah, because they played outside. Right. Prore coming in all in on Tennessee like you said. And it's like, okay, if the pros are coming on Tennessee

and the public is joining them, isn't this the exact spot we do take the Browns? Because we talked about the Browns at home, that defense. I mean, these are terrible, terrible teams. Terrible. Have a highly elite defense. Like, we talk about that, that 49ers game, that was no way shape or form on that Browns.

defense. This number is not like it was. This, if anything, this number should be six because of how good this Brown's defense is. Like, I just- Can the Brown score six points in this game? Like, in my head, I was like, this feels like a three-nothing game. I just can't believe it. Like you just said, all the money is coming in on this Titan side. And I, I- Isn't your model telling you to bet the Titans here? It shockingly wasn't. Like I actually had this a minus four and a half. So I guess the opening number was pretty good for Titans, right?

The Titans opened four and a five. But yeah, I just, to me, this is like total overreaction by everybody. I just cannot believe people are comfortably betting on Cam Ward on the road in Cleveland. I don't know. Maybe I'm missing something. I'll get some professional calls about this one because I was dying. Like, even diving into their numbers, it's like, this kid, wants to turn the ball over. Cam Ward takes insanely high risk throws. He holds under the ball,

I think second longest in all football right now. It's like this is just, again, all music to my ears against Cleveland. This is exactly what they want. I mean, Miles Gary must be thinking himself, this is the week I can get five sacks and just absolutely break this record by 10, because I still have four games left. So it just all lines up for me on this Browns team. And I got so many funny texts last week about how on Tuesday I said, no matter what, I won't be involved in any type of Tennessee game. And then somehow try to put them in come Sunday into our contest. I have a disease, a sickness with this Tennessee team.

So maybe I'm just completely wrong. I should just avoid it. You know, the Browns, they're in a funny spot here that were, I'm interested to see what the public does with this line. Because maybe it is just all professional mind and the public are on the Browns and I'm missing it. but right now everything I've seen, it's just professional and the public have come in super heavy on the Tennessee tie

where it's like, did we all just forget this Brown's defense is like top five in this league, and now it's a rookie in their home stadium? This isn't Brock Purdy. This is Cam Ward. Like it's just, I can't believe the opportunity we might have here on this Brown team. So I'll be patient.

Maybe I'll get under three. I'll get an insanely good number on this Brown side because like we just talked about it, it's gone all over from four and a half to three and a half at a lot of books. supposed to be 30-ish and getting colder as the day goes on in Cleveland on Sunday. No sign of precipitation. I mean, I can be talked into it as long as I don't know. Like the Browns, you know, when we're watching, like I got four games up and plus a game on my laptop.

And so normally when I'm watching the games that we've got bets on, I tend to watch when they're like put the sound on for those games when the teams that we have bets on are on offense. The Browns are the team that when we have bets on the Browns, I put the sound on when they're on defense. Because I feel like that's the only way they're going to win a game. So for the Browns to win this game, I think they're going to have to have at least multiple turnovers and at least one turnover return for a touchdown for us to actually cover a number that is bigger than three. And I feel like all those things are at like 60, 70 percent chance of happening. Like this is just just an interesting. insane spot for this Brown's defense to be in against the Titans offense that has shown nothing all season until it's to prevent defense in the games.

That's when Cam Ward seems to shine. So I get it. It could be a better backdoor spot for them. But like you said, defensive, I just think they're going to dominate for three quarters and get turnovers. And this is, that's how Browns are going to win this year with Chador Sanders as a quarterback, having short field. It's not like last week where he was on his own 10 and 15 in the entire game. Like he just, he cannot exist in that world, Chador's Sanders. So I just like this matchable love for this brown's defense.

How do you feel about the Atlanta Falcons as seven point underdogs at home against the Seattle Seahawks? Because this line is moved from seven and a half down to seven. And like, I know I just said I don't want to watch bad teams that I have to depend on. I know the pros are on Atlanta. Seattle looked so good. Public sentiment is so on the Seahawks side

and the Falcons are in such disarray and looked terrible. Everything about that loss to the Jets is a tragedy. The Atlanta Falcons had the ball and a chance to drive down the field to get into field goal range and win the game with 53 seconds left. Four downs.

53 seconds left. they had the ball, and somehow they still lost the game in overtime. That's how tragic that loss was for the Falcons. You couldn't get more of a disparity between peak Falcons and peak Seahawks and Valley Falcons than you get right now. It's possible. I still think overall, though, it's not, people don't love the Seattle team. I thought this would be another game where it's like, like tons of tons of money just pouring on Seattle here because this feels like an amazing spot.

We've talked about it. It's a Seattle team that is one of the best teams of football all on the road. They are like as dominant as they were their last game at home and their defense was, their defense is even statistically better on the road, especially this season. And we've talking about Mike McDonald, he's been a machine on the road. Like I told you, I don't want to bet against him. When he's on the road, I just simply want to take him because I feel like long term. It's going to be a winner.

And, you know, it's a really early career here. but since he's taken over, he's 9, 4, and 1 against the spread on the road. That's really impressive. And on the East Coast, just saying East Coast for him, he's 5, 2, and 1 against the spread. So he's done really well in these spots. Sand d'arned as well. It feels like he performs well as big favorites, shockingly, where usually when they give him these type of big numbers, like last week, you know, he didn't do much last week.

It usually evens out with him, right? So just dive into the trends with him where how long he's been playing now, it's not that small of a sample, right? So he's been this exact spot, so a favorite of six points or more 10 times. He's 10 and 0 straight up in his career, 8 and 2 against the spread. So tends to cover is a big favorite.

He's usually really good in these type of spots. And if you're a Falcons team, I feel like what they're going to grasp at is the fact that maybe people like me and the public do overreact to when they come off like what you had just said is a really bad loss. And just this season alone, awful loss, they're 5 and 2 against the spread.

So it is a team that tends to, perform well after a loss and the public underrates them, but you dive into it and it's just like, my God, if this is still Kirk Cousins against the Seattle defense, just talking an absolute nightmare for him, right? It's, they're going to take away

the run. Like, this is a defense that can take away the run and make a team one dimensional. I think that's what they're going to do here with Kirk. So, it's Kirk once again, without his number one receiver and he's forced to make big time plays against, to me, an offense that they had their down week last week. Like, I think Sam Darno is going to get his in this

matchup against a secondary, just got torn up by Tyrod Taylor. So, I mean, let's not, like, joke about it. Like, even, what was it, Jonathan Taylor ran for $2.50 against them? Like, there are so many ways to attack this Atlanta defense that teams have been doing all season. And they're one of the worst teams in football. So, yeah, I honestly, when I first saw these lines, I thought it was going to be on the

Falcons, but the more I dive into it, the more I look at it with the Seattle team. They're just what they are this season, right? We got to put them in the same categories of Rams. They're an absolute juggernaut and probably the top three best team than NFC. So I really, once again, wanted to be on the Falcons, but it's now at 7 at Hard Rock. That's a Seahawks number to me. So I'm going to take that number.

If you want to play Falcons 7-and-a-half, I won't fight you on it. But I got this at 8.5. It's now at 7. I'm going to take that value on the Seahawks. Tyrae Taylor is a Super Bowl champion and a former Pro Bowl quarterback. He's your new Colt McCoy. Getting beat by Tyrae Taylor is not anything to be ashamed of. 36 years old.

He's covered against the risen, but him beating you is something, definitely something. No, it's not. He's a genius, genius with the ball in his hands. Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Baltimore is a five and a half point favorite. One of our listeners asked the other night in the live show on Sunday in the YouTube chat. Everyone go listen to the show, watch the show on Sunday nights. It's live. We're answering your questions from the YouTube chat.

Can we please stop betting the Steelers? And normally this would be a spot where we love the Steelers. Here's an amazing stat. Ben Solac was a columnist at ESPN put out a column this morning and I was reading it. And it was great. And it sort of said, what level of alarm are we at for a variety of teams? He talked about the Steelers. He talked about the Ravens.

He talked about the Colts. He talked about the Lions. He had this crazy stat. Aaron Rogers, 66.4% of his passing yards have come after the catch. this season. That is second only to AJ Feeley in 2011 in the past 15 years. That's 713 quarterbacks and he is second worst. And then there was like a litany of other stats of which he was like between 700 and 715 for a variety of other downfield passing numbers. Like the line has moved from six and a half to five and a half. So we know money has come in on the Steelers.

But I will say this, this Bill's team just ran for 250 yards on the Steelers. The last time these two teams played, Derek Henry ran for 186 yards on his own. And the weakness for the Steelers defense, their Steelers' Russian defense is still top-down in a lot of categories. They are susceptible to explosive plays, especially late in the game. And some of the things we've seen for this team is where years passed, when they did keep the game close, they have been getting tired and getting beat on explosive plays the past couple years and that's a trend I don't want to be on that side of.

I don't want to bet the Ravens, but I don't like the Steelers here. Yeah, this is getting me a really tough game because I think we both know we've been taking the Steelers in this exact spot for 20 years. Yes. You know, I like you said, there is a ton of horrible Steelers stats.

My favorite one I saw that just really pertains to the Steelers offense and Aaron Rogers right now, they haven't completed a downfield pass in 36 days, this Steelers team. They are 0 for 13, three interceptions of their last five games combined on 20 plus air yards. So just historically, like you just said, horrible. And like you can go look at their schedule with people. That is not five games against absolute juggernaut defenses. These are some defenses that should have been passed downfield on or just.

Look, we're going to talk about the bangles and the bills and the bills have one of the worst defenses against receivers and explosive plays going down field against the past of any team in the NFL. Yeah, like Rogers, I remember he was saying he, he was thinking about how he would love to keep playing another year and maybe come back for Pittsburgh. It is, it's over. All the numbers bear it out. I mean, some team might be dumb enough to do it, but he's really done.

And it's so painful, especially you dive in all the trends here, because that's why we love the Steelers here, because you just, it doesn't matter who the quarterback has been for either teams, as long as it's been horrible on Tomlin, it always plays out the same. The worst, the team that is worse, record rise and the public hates and does not trust, they always cover in this game and this matchup. And it's just crazy looking at these trend numbers. So let's go back to 2000, since 2005, the underdog in this series, 29, 12, and 3 against the spread. So it's 71%. So just if you blindly have just bet the dog in this series since 2005, you were hitting a 71% clip, which is, I'm in the dream. And going further, okay, if the line is three points or more,

which we always talk about in these unique spots, because the books know all these trends as well, dinner dog in that spot, when it's three points or more, 23, 5 and 3 against the spread. So once again, it's just like, you blindly bet the dog here, it's been very profitable. And, you know, it's unique too where, you know, we talk about Tomlin as an underdog. That's, that's really when we love him, right? And this year, it's not been paying out for us. We've talked a little bit of that. TJ has just not been the same, right? TJ's got all this money.

This has been one of his worst years ever. Like, he is just non-existent. I haven't getting QB pressures, let alone sacks. He's just been atrocious this year for them. And that really does affect them because you just see, once again, all these numbers, Tomlin as a dog,

when in this exact matchup against Harbaugh, he's 13 to 4 against his spread. He just always covers because his defense tends to step up. So that's the hardest part for me, Chad. It's like we want to bet them here, but the defense has disappointed us so much. And, you know, even Lamar, Like you look back to the years when he first came out and how good he was.

He was 0 and 5 against the spread of star's career against the Steelers team. He just could not get it right. Tomlin really had his number now. He has covered a few times of late here. And, you know, that obviously is a big deal. But not as a favorite. It's been really bad for him. And, you know, I just, once again, I look at these numbers.

It's like, okay, what are the Ravens like when they're a big favorite like this? Because this is rare, right? They're a five and a half point favorite. In their history, when they play this matchup, when they're a favorite above this number, they are three in 10 against the spread in the Ravens history against the Steelers at this number above.

So again, Ravens only been around since 2000. I know it's not going that far back, but just shows if you just blindly bet the trends and take the dogs here, you will be successful. I think me and Chad both don't trust the Steelers team. I don't know about him, but I'm probably going to end up on this Ravens team, especially its number keeps it moving.

Because I think what Chad says, that's true. I just think this Steelers defense is totally gone. They have a quarterback. They don't believe in who they shouldn't. all those numbers back it up. And they just don't have that identity they've had in the past. Even though they've had a really bad quarterback play, they've always had a really good dominant defense.

It feels like under Tomlin. And this year, he doesn't feel that way. So I don't know about you, Chad, but I'm going to go against the trends here. I'm going to go with this Ravens team of minus five and a half. Well, half of the battle when you're betting is to figure out when the trend is no longer the right side, right? We started the show talking about the Lions and the Cowboys.

We have had the debate about the Chiefs all season. long, like trying to figure out when these teams that you have relied on for so many years and made so much money on, something is off and something is off. And it's not just, you know, the Steelers, it's not just Aaron Rogers. You talked about T.J. Watt, his get-off speed has decreased year after year after year after year. Jalen Ramsey, they had to move them to safety. They do not have anyone in the defensive backfield who was able to be a really effective against players that are getting deeper into the secondary.

So, you know? This feels like, I know we've been waiting for, this feels like the start of, if they get rid of Tomlin, of like 10 years of darkness in the Pittsburgh organization. They have no, they have no path to getting a quarterback right now. And they've spent all this money on all these old guys on defense, like the most expensive defense in all football.

And it's, you know, a bottom five defense right now. It's just brutally, brutally dark days for Pittsburgh. They owe T.J.J. Yalin Ramsey and D.K. Metcalfe nearly $100 million next year. Like, it is a really tough spot. It's going to be interesting. You know, people are chanting fire Tomlin. Like, it's getting ugly out there. I hate betting the Ravens here, but I'm much more comfortable betting the Ravens than I am the Steelers. I don't know if we'll get there for a final five pick. Because Lamar just hasn't been Lamar. Like, and if he can't do what he's going to do, it's hard to back the Ravens, but certainly an interesting game.

Yeah. Cincinnati at Buffalo. Buffalo also, five and a half point favorite. Simon, the public dog here is going to be Cincinnati. And I really want to bet the Bengals. I want to bet Joe Burrow. I want to bet against the bills coming off of what looked like a dominant win against these Steelers.

The bill's passing defense overall is middle of the pack. I just alluded to it. The pill's passing defense against wide receivers is truly atrocious. Third down conversion allowed. They are 20th. Passing success rate. They are 19th. Explosive pass rate.

22nd. And we can get into all the fancy letters, EPA, DVOA, yards per target allowed to wide receivers are all 24. or worse, but how do I bet on a Bengals defense that cannot stop the run against a team that just gained 250 yards? I feel a little bit as if the public's overreacting a little bit to that Bengals win. Oh, of course. As good as they did play, like give them tons of credit, Ed felt like everything was going

their way in that game between the refs and like you said, how bad Lamar played, where he had tons of opportunities he just cannot capitalize on. And, you know, questioning, I get why people are Christian Harbaugh or not because they, Derek Henry was getting whatever he wanted. They went away from right away. Like they just completely abandoned the run where the run game seemed to be working. But I'll hit you with all the trends I read about Joe Brookes because I couldn't believe it. I said it last week we wanted to bet Joe as a dog, especially when the number is big.

And it worked out last week for us, right? I gave up the stat. He was 17 and 3 whenever this, when he's an underdog of three points or more. Now he's 18 and 3 right after coming last week. So we know if you're just going to play him in these exact spots, it is profitable. You know, he's shockingly, I guess it's not shocking because they're not in the same division, but he's only played against his bills teams twice in his career. You know, I guess, well, no, they did play three times, but that one of the one game was the Hamlin game.

So it doesn't count. That's right. That's crazy. I didn't think of that. But he is two and no in those matchups against the spread and straight up. So he's actually beaten Josh Allen both times. He's played really well against him. And both times in those games, he scored 24 or more.

So like Chad's kind of alluded to here, Even when the bills had a semi-decent defense, Joe Burroughs had his way with him, and he's played great against him. And I know there's a lot of trends and stuff pointing me to back in this Mangost team, but Chad just said, I just think the same feeling I had with this bill team

they played the Bucks a couple weeks ago, which is it was this huge dog with a quarterback that people believed in, and he kind of played up to it the whole game, and then he eventually got caught at the very end of it, where last week I think it's a nice spot to back, where Josh Allen did not play well. I love these type of games where he's after games, he doesn't play that great,

where we've seen, especially this year, he just plays so well and bounces back, especially at home, at least have a matchup. So it's another game where, like Chad said, the public is coming and so heavy on the Bengals. You can be patient. I'm going to bet it now that it's under six, especially at Hard Rock. This could keep getting hit. Like, the pros could come in with the public and bet this down just because tons of trends favor this Bengals team. Like Chad said, there's numbers that showcase how bad the secondary is of the Spills team

that teams like the Bengals that want to push the ball downfield should excel against. but I just think defensively, they're going to be in such a struggle that if Joe and Burl has just two or three, three in outs, it's going to be over. Like I just, to me, this is Josh Allen puts up 42 type of game and gets back into the MVP type of conversation. So I know it's a big number of people and it's like, oh, my God, the guy just gave us the Ravens is a favor. Now he's against the bills. But it's all about the numbers, right? Both those numbers are under the key number of six. I like playing that key number now.

Matt Mitchell is only dreaming about exactly what you're talking about happening as the key. King of Western New York. It's like pizza, baby. It's good. No matter what, there's music in the air. Shout. Yeah. Oh, oh.

Shout now. Jump up and shout now. It's a good time. You know what I mean? Denver at the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are seven and a half point underdogs. I don't want to bet Bo Nix and the Broncos as big favorites in the division. I don't want to bet the Raiders who just couldn't cover as big dogs in the division.

against a QB who literally broke his hand in the middle of the game. So I have no opinion on this game. And I feel like we have so much bad karma coming back to the Raiders. Like I've had so many clips sent to me of them just doing the seedyish shit to Herbert in that game.

Like there was just one player, Herbert's going out, like hands a ball and he runs off to the left. He's not even involved in the play. And a guy comes sprinted in and goes after the hand that's wrapped. Like literally attacks his hand. and that's wrapped when he's not even involved in the play.

And it's just like, oh, my God. Like, some of these guys are just such a piece of shit on this Raiders team. So I'm with you. I don't know if I'm going to be Ben and Bone Knicks at this big of a number. Like, even looking at all of the numbers, we talked about, you know, a little bit on Sunday night where it's like, as much hate you want to get Bone Knicks, he is clutch at end of these games.

Like, even in that overtime game, that was clutch drive by him once again, where it's like he just does so many bad things that makes us not believe in him like me and Chad are right now. but it's pretty wild in his early career here as a favorite. He's 15-1 straight up in his career. Like, that's really impressive for a guy like him that this year the books have over adjusted to it.

Because I think last year he was 8 and 0 against the spread as a favorite. This year, they kind of knew that, right? And they knew the public would kind of bet these numbers. So they've always bumped these games up by a point or two. He's now 2 and 6 this season as a favorite. So what Chad has just said is true. It's like, we don't want to really bet in him as a big favorite here at minus 7.

and a half and I totally get with you you were saying and I probably end up on the Raiders but I'm like you I'm going to put no real money to this game I'm just happy to put the Broncos into maybe a couple money on my parlayers and just not even watch a second on this game. Hey it's us to Jonas brothers and guess what we have some big

news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas we invented a podcast well we didn't invent it we just contributed to it first people to do podcasts. Pretty yeah pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. but this one's extra special.

So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. We were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down?

Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, hey Jonas, and then I wrote down on my little notepad Hey Jonas and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defining the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before.

he knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. man, he running up the court, licking his fingers

why he got the ball, like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Deanna Maria Riva,

actress, mother, lover, and a Gen X woman walking through life one hot flash and hormonal crying jag at a time. You ladies know what I mean. I'll bet you a perimenopausal chin here you do. So let's talk about it. Join me on my new podcast, How Hard Can It Be with the Adamani Arriva, where I call on my Gen X squads from Ohio to Hollywood as we navigate midlife's most fantastic BS. All of a sudden, I'd had hanginess happening on my own.

I was like, what the hell is that? I was married when I had her, so I didn't even consider how empty that nest was going to be. Mood swings, night sweats, fupas, sex drive. Wait, what sex? Dating at 45. How high can it be getting naked at 50? with the new guy. That one's kind of hard.

Well, that's lighting. They say we can't polish a turd, but we're sure going to try. So let's get blunt with laughs, tears, or tears of laughter, and dive into it, unfiltered and unbothered and ask, how hard can it be?

I cannot believe I'm about to say this out loud in public. Listen to How Hard Can It Be with Diana Maria Riva as part of my Cultura podcast network available on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Saigon,

the story of my family. and of the country that shaped us. The United States will not stand by and allow any power, however great, take over another country. From My Heart Podcast, Saigon. Please allow me to introduce Joseph Sherman. You don't think I'm serious about a free Vietnam?

I should stop talking so much. I like hearing you talk. One city, a divided country, and the war that tore America apart. This is for Vietnam. I've taken a hit from Japanese ground fire. Do you rate me? They're pouring Patrick.

all over him. He's holding matches. I'm on a landmine. Or freeze on. Let's get out. Freedom. Come in nine. Run! Saigon, starring Kelly Marie Tran and Rob Benedict. Sting, here's madness. The world should hear about this. There's a fire coming to this country, and it's going to burn out everything.

Listen to Saigon on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. There are times when the mind becomes a difficult. place to live. This is David Eagleman with the Inner Cosmos podcast, and for Mental Health Awareness Month, we're dedicating a series to understanding the mind when it struggles. I'm joined by doctors, researchers, and those with lived experience. We'll talk with singer-songwriter Jewel about anxiety. I started living in my car, and then my car got stolen. I was shoplifting, I was having panic attacks, I was agoraphobic. And making it through hardship. To be present is a learned skill, and it's hard to be present.

We'll talk with John Nelson about clinical depression and the brain implant that saved his life. What I learned is that procedure made me happy because I'm disease-free. And we'll talk with leading experts like Judd Brewer about anxiety and John Hirschfield about obsessive-compulsive disorder and the science of how the brain can change. This is a month of deeply personal and honest conversations

about what happens when the brain goes off course and what we can do about it. Listen to Inner Cosmos on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Let's talk about the most important game in the history of the world. The Chicago Bears visiting the Green Bay Packers, minus six and a half.

Hungry Bears are violent bears. Remember the other day when I said to you, Ben Johnson taking his shirt off is something that will endear him to Chicago fans forever and like he truly understands the spirit of the city and the connection that team has with the city. Yesterday I got a picture sent from one of my buddies in Chicago in the Chicago text chain of a bunch of Bears fans in Bears jersey standing outside Shoulderfield and I don't know if it was AI or what or if it was like they quickly constructed like

a statue of Ben Johnson flexing with his shirt off in front of Soldier Field. That's how much this guy means to the city right now and how much he is connecting with the fans of the city. Whatever that thing was, I loved it. I think it was amazing. I think it captured sort of what he has done so perfectly as a Bears fan. Like the belief in him right now is so crazy. Last week, I said, how little respect can the Bears be getting if they are six and a half point underdogs on the road at the Eagles? after a high-profile dominant win,

they are getting no respect as the number one seat in the conference, and they are six and a half-point underdogs on the road against an incredibly inconsistent team in the Green Bay Packers. Are there, like, actual Green Bay Packers fans in Chicago? Is that super rare? Because obviously it's a close,

but like you don't really see it, do you? Never see it. Never see it. Only if they're transplants because, like, some overly ambitious cheesehead decides they're going to be. go make it in the big city and they moved to Chicago and they bring their packardom. And I say that with nothing but love as someone who went to overnight camp for many,

many summers in the great Northwoods of Wisconsin. Well, I just always wanted because Rogers was your guy's daddy for so many years. I just, I couldn't imagine how in a place where you guys are super friendly, Chicago, that's probably the one spot where I could see people flipping a script. If someone was just reping Green Bay constantly, it's like, dude, do not be reppping Green Bay in our city right now. It's been a long time. But we saw it last year. Caleb beat them in the final week of the year.

I mean, it's, I know that was a pointless game, but that was some demon slayed there. But I don't know what to do with this one, Chad. Like, I'm with you. I want to be all over this Bears team. But you also want to fade them because of everything I just said. Like, they couldn't be more peak. And also what's scaring me is I'm getting nothing in my feed right now.

Obviously, there's a bias in any. feed. I'm getting nothing in my feed, but praise for how brilliant Ben Johnson's run scheme is. Like, we are so ready. We are so primed for a massive, massive letdown. Yeah. And it's, again, it's a unique spot. The Bears have just, they've been awful against this Green Bay organization. It doesn't matter who their quarterback is, who the Green Bay team is. I mean, I don't want to pain for it. Read you to the stats chat, but I have to give the people perspective. Bears are 1 and 11 straight up against the Packers. Their one win was that one I just told you about last year with Caleb Williams in the final week of the year where Green Bay says they

weren't trying. I feel like they were trying. They felt like they were trying and they got beat straight up by that bear team. The base got quit for the last eight weeks and then beat them in the final weekend. It's shocking through the Packers in that run. So they're 11 and 1 against this Bears team. They're 10 and 2 against the spread in that run. So it's not like they've just been being you guys. They've been covering, even though everyone knows they've owned you guys and they've been keep backing them. So, this is a really unique spot where

I talk to a handful of bookmakers right now. They think the Packers might end up being a need come Sunday because they've taken so much Bears money line bets and bets on the spread. I think everyone in the public saw what we saw against that Eagles team, which is like, okay, if they can be that dominant the run scheme,

it doesn't matter their quarterback is playing at a really low level. I mean, I'm sure you saw the Ben Johnson quotes. Him taking shots at Caleb Williams. It wasn't really him taking shots, to be honest. It was really him just speaking the truth. The guy asked him a question and answer to the truthfully. He basically just said the gist of it was,

we're not winning because of our quarterback. We're winning despite because of our quarterback play, which I talked coming to the year. This man is a psychopath. He's going to be tough love with Caleb because in his mind, he doesn't feel like he owes anything to Caleb. He's going to be putting him in his best position to succeed. If Caleb doesn't keep growing and get better,

I talked about it. He will move on in two to three years. He's going to be in Chicago. I mean, even after this year, I just, can you see when Ben Johnson went out as welcome before Kilda Williams? I can't. Like you said, he feels way more connected to the city than Caleb has in the past two years. Yes.

It is Ben Johnson's town. This is Dicka-like euphoria. You want some dick a stat? Give me a dick a stat. At seven and four, he is the best record against the spread of any. Bears head coach since Mike Dicca started in 1982. DeK coach. It's just, again, we talk all the time.

Like, these teams eventually find the right coach that changes their organization. That's what it feels like with this Bears team. So I'm, I can't leave another. We're on another favorite here, Chad, but I'm probably going to end up on this Packers team just because, like you said, it just feels like euphoria on this Bears team is just at peak level. And it's just something about this Packer's team where it just, every week, like they got away with their cover last week,

but it feels like a lot of that was because of the refs and blah, blah, blah, but still, when you watch them play, it's like, this is such a well-coached, good team. Like, with the floor, they have a ton of talent, and the bears on the flip side, they've had so many injuries. I don't know how it's all held up together. It's all worked out for them.

Although then you guys just have a great offensive line and that run blocking is just incredible. So if you're on the Bears, I totally get it, but it's another game where I'm probably going to end up on the Packers, but I hate myself for it. It's like I want to be on the bears so bad. I haven't bet this because I do want to be on the bears so bad. And, you know, every fiber of my being is telling me it's the wrong thing to do

and that it's an emotional bet. And then this is exactly when. But this is how it happens, though. Like you guys win the division. This is the exact way it happens. You don't see it coming. Another upset after you upset the eagles. Like I just, I see it for this bear scene.

That's why I want to bet the bears. It's like I can see it. But the part of me that's so boring is like, well, same old, Green Bay. wins here. They win the division. Green Bay is once again the division leader. But I just, I want to believe it with the Bears team. I just want to watch this game and enjoy this game. I want to be in my glory. I want to put on my bears gear and I just want to be under my blanket. And I just want to watch the Bears. And I want it to end with enough time for us to come up and do the show and not be miserable. I don't want to watch it while we're about to do the show at 7.30.

The Los Angeles Rams are visiting the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are eight-point underdogs at home right now. It's come down, was eight and a half. Cardinals have lost seven games by four points or less this year. They've lost one game by 22 points and one game by 19 points. Both of those were in the division. One to the Seahawks, one to the 49ers. Unfortunately, those were two of the times in which we bet the Cardinals.

I think the only two times, thinking that, of course, they're not getting the right value, they're not being respected. And those are the games in which they had probably 17 turnovers in the first five minutes of each game and then they were trying to come back

the rest of the game. So here we are. Are we getting the Cardinals who keep games close? Are we getting the Cardinals who get blown out by division opponents? And how does that impact our thinking? Like, to me,

this Cardinal team is so susceptible to everything that the Rams do well. Their defense is fading. Matthew Stafford, in a comfortable environment against depleted defensive backfield, Jacoby Brissette, kind of stationary, against a very good pass rush, and yet the Cardinals keep figuring out ways to do it, except division opponents. I know. I honestly thought I was one of the Cardinals. My model had this at six and a half

So it's like, okay, there's good value here On this Cardinals team, but Shout to our guy Evan Abrams. He smacked me with a dead fish, Really woke me up. Dead fish. Something stank here. And it is December.

It is Sean McVeigh's month. I quickly forgot that. And luckily for me, Evan posted all of his stats. He is 25 and 11 against the spread in December. And that just sounds like a McVeigh stat because McVey, he's just the best. And this late of the year, he gets his guys right.

So brutal, embarrassing loss last week. It makes me want to bet McVeigh even more because this is the exact type of spot he bounces back. He basically owns the Cardinals. I just talked about Green Bay being Chicago's daddy. McVeigh is the Cardinals Daddy, big time here. And just all the stats are insane. In his career.

Slap in the base, big time. 12 and 4 against the spread McVeigh when he plays Arizona. on the road in Arizona, McVeigh, 7-1 straight up and against the spread in his career. As a favorite in Arizona, 6-0 straight up against the spread. Oh, goodness.

We've just seen it. McVeigh has dominated the coronals through, what is the three different coaching hires since he's on this crazy run. Doesn't matter. Well, it's just funny where it's like, you just see the dysfunction of Arizona. Yeah, right.

That's what I mean. He's outside the Rams. He's been to two Super Bowls, and he's just owned them to. divisionally this whole run with McVeigh. And, you know, we talk all the time. There's just certain teams divisionally match up with other teams that there's weird numbers and trends that back it up.

And it's really, when you look into it, it makes sense because it's all about matchup and scheme. And some teams just don't match up right or scheme right against certain teams. And now it sounds really stupid when I really dove into this one. It's just because Arizona has literally never had any type of lineback play. And you look into it, they've getting dominated in this matchup by outside runs and tight ends up the scene. So it's like McVeigh has shown them

every year what he's going to do against them and they can't stop it. And even more so this year, they use 12 personnel more than they have in the past. So it's even more of a reason I like the ramps here. Because in the past they've dominated this matchup when they weren't running that many two tight end sets.

This year, that's like their bread and butter. And we've seen that time of time again every week. I mean, how many times you see it on first down that five yard dump off to the tight end to the left or to the right? It's just 12 personnel, 13 personnel. If they could, it would be 14 personnel. Like they've gone four deep on their tight ends this year. It's been one of the new schemes and new sort of creative attacks that Sean McVeigh has added to the game plan. It's been great. Yeah, so again,

it's like a weird thing where I wanted to be on the Cardinals and I once again, I'm on another big favorite here. So something's wrong with this week. I'm getting a little spooked about it, but I just think it's a week of, okay, are people reacting to the past week? Are people backing off this Rams team because of what happened last week? And I would say it's gone another way, right? I talked a couple of pros who've come in pretty heavy

on this Cardinals team. So a couple of books out there. I did open this at 9, 9.5. It's like we said, it's down to 8.5, 8 at a couple books. So if you like, if you're like me and you like the Rams, I'm going to wait, see what the pros do here and see if I can get under a 7. Boy.

Rams. Packers, Ravens, Bills. Am I the only guy who acts like a professional better on this show anymore? Going with the Jets? Good Lord. Let's talk about some primetime games. We know everybody's going to bet the primetime games. These are the spotlight, standalone island games that we love.

Houston at Kansas City, Kansas City minus three at Hard Rock Bet, at minus three and a half in most places. It's moved in the Texans direction. The majority of the bets are the Texans. Like the Bengals, I think this is another one that is a public dog. Simon, feels like the right time to fade the Texans. Does. I feel like it's moved too much.

And I talk a little bit about it on Sunday night where I was like, I feel like I'm going to end up being on the Chiefs. And I said it was four and a half. I was like, December probably going to come down. I had a couple pros together. They were like, yeah, I love Houston here. This is a great match for Houston, especially defensively, how they match up with this Chiefs team.

And on the flip side, like we've been talking a little bit about this Chief's identity defensively just feels lost right now. Like it feels like all year, their defense has not been more used to as Spags. Like usually they get better, especially by the time we get to December,

and they still have not improved the way we thought they're going to. And that's just how football's so tough, right? You lose a couple of guys, you don't hit the draft right? You're losing guys at key positions. You just can't cover those up, right? Teams have exploit those weaknesses. So shocked, shocked, this number has moved so much,

honestly. So I don't know, Chad. It feels like we're doing the same thing we do with the Lions. We're betting on past performance and what we think should be happening. It's just... We are. We are. Except to me, the difference is the Chiefs have actually played well this year. Yeah. They just been on the wrong side of the close games. Whereas the Lions haven't played well this year. And the Lions have some clearly, some clear issues and clear personnel issues and clear holes in their roster. We can say that the Chiefs have holes in their roster. We can say that the Chiefs have holes in their roster, but they're also running it more effectively than they ever have. And they still have high performing players on defense. And they still have Patrick Mahomes,

who's doing wildly creative things while holding the ball for an exceptionally long period of time and still being successful. So like, I get it. Like, I'm going to hold on to the chiefs with my fingernails. Um, and I feel like right now, But three, the numbers move too much. It has, but like we've been saying for what feels like five years now, if it is three and a half, that is the time you're supposed to go against homes. Like with the hook, it's been paying out. And just even these last three weeks, like Chad just said,

they've been losing these close games. All three of the games were decided by three points. So I totally get if you're like, okay, well, I'm getting the hook. All their games are close and ugly because, again, they're not that good of a team, this Chief's team. why would you not just finally take this Texas team plus three and a half? But we talk about we're working with Hard Rock Book here. We both want to be on the Chiefs.

So I'll take the Three of the Chiefs, hope and pray. Maybe it gets the two and a half. But it's another thing where if this was last year, a couple years ago, me and Chad would be probably hammering this one. One of our bigger bets would be on the Chiefs. I don't have that type of confidence. They're just unproven this year in one score games like we talked about. They're one and five this season.

We knew there was going to be regression from last year. I think they were 11-0 or 11-0 in one-score games. this is like next level. Like they've totally, totally come back the other way in one square games. So shits are going their way. Like we're playing the odds there. But, you know, at this number, this becomes a chief's number. But three and a half, if you want to be on the Texans,

I'd grab it now because I do think the pros are going to bet that away. I don't see any three and a halfs being left by Sunday. All right. The Eagles and the Chargers and the Chargers are now two and a half point dogs. The number has moved to three. Good save. Simon. Justin Herbert had hand surgery.

yesterday on Monday. And if I had to guess, given what he has played through so far in his career, he hasn't been ruled out and he might not be ruled out. So I would expect him to play. But is Justin Herbert's non-throwing hand going to be what determines whether or not we bet this game? It's already moved in the Chargers direction. Which I can't believe.

It's another thing where it's, you know, a couple of pros I talk to. absolutely love this Chargers team. And as an Eagles fan, it's like, oh, my God, I'm missing something here because I thought this would be a great spot for this Eagles team and the fact that we've seen it with this Chargers team. They just have no offensive line every week. He is running for his life. And as much shit as you want to give this Eagles team, they've been getting after quarterbacks.

Their defense, what happened last week was they could not stop the run. So that's something the Chargers can do. But you expect after the Eagles got embarrassed, one of the best he sees in the league. league we'll get the guys right for this match against Chargers team so i can't believe it is what it is i've taken a piece of this eagles team especially now it's at two and a half because there is a possibility that herbert does miss this game like chad said he just got surgery yesterday on his non-throwing hand can he get a wrapped up true competitor with a psychopath coach put him in there yeah if anyone if this is the perfect team for that to happen like herbert the ultimate competitor with a coach equal

equal kind of thought process they need this win just as much the eagles do they're fighting for their own playoff life. So it's a really unique spot where it's like I kind of kind of like the chargers, but it's about the number. So plus three plus three and a half, I was going to be on the charger, but now we're under the number, the key number of three on this Eagles team that, you know, as bad as they've been these last two weeks, right, these embarrassing losses, if you keep going back before that, they've been finding ways to win these close games all year. They've been playing bad all year. It's just, that's not freshen people's minds because they got blown out in embarrassing fashion last week and a standalone game in the week.

before that, they had a total meltdown against Dallas. So another game where I'm not going to go too heavy on it because everything is just so off with this Eagles team. And we're so late in the year here that, you know, it's a team that I would say probably should be a minus four, minus four and a half favorite to most people's models. But they're this low just because of what we talked about. It's all the off stuff, all the mental stuff is how everything is just so negative around this team, this organization, where the flip side, this Chargers team, you know,

that was a big win last week. They really were in a dog fight against a divisional opponent. And, you know, I just, another team where it's like the Dallas and the Lions thing. It feels like these are two teams going to opposite directions. The Chargers, they, even they're all banged up on their last leg, they believe they can get that seventh seed. This Eagles team, they feel like they know they're about to collapse and fall out of the playoffs in Dallas to steal the division. So it's an interesting game and an interesting number here that, you know, like I just said, the two and a half. they're telling you Herbert's going to play.

So I'm going to take it now just in case he doesn't, but it feels like it's pretty telling you're in the week. The Herber will be back for Monday's game. Simon, in the first half of the show, we were so sharp. Washington plus one and a half, Simon says, talking about the Jags plus two, buying out of our Colts position. We talked about New Orleans plus nine.

Talked about the Jets at plus two and a half, Chats' Choice. We talked about the Browns, the Browns, at home. And then all of a sudden, we're Seattle, where the Ravens, we're Buffalo, we're Green Bay, where the Rams, what happened to us?

All these games are going to be games that we have to pick up again on Thursday once we get some feedback and see how moves are trending and see who's going to be playing and who might be not, who might be sitting. This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back.

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