The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL Week 2 bets: Eagles-Chiefs, Jets-Bills, Giants-Cowboys, Bears-Lions & more

Episode Date: September 9, 2025

Expert bettor Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter check the latest football lines and start making their bets for all the big NFL Week 2 matchups: Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills, New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions, New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks vs Pittsburgh Steelers, and more. All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Timeline: 02:00 - Intro 03:15 - Contest info 05:07 - Commanders-Packers 08:48 - Jaguars-Bengals 14:04 - Patriots-Dolphins 22:22 - 49ers-Saints  27:26 - Browns-Ravens 33:42 - Giants-Cowboys  39:57 - Bears-Lions 47:04 - Bills-Jets 52:29 - Seahawks-Steelers  1:02:15 - Broncos-Colts  1:04:23 - Panthers-Cardinals  1:07:26 - Rams-Titans  1:10:41 - Eagles-Chiefs 1:15:35 - Falcons-Vikings 1:19:07 - Buccaneers-Texans 1:22:31 - Chargers-RaidersSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.

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laughs, tears, or tears of laughter. Listen to How Hard Can It Be with Gianna Maria Riva on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments.

If we didn't talk ever again, I was hungry. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis come in to you, he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball.

So listen to Point Game on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as always by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadion, my compadry. Great, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in.

Chad, how we doing? My brother. Listen, you sound so much better than you did when I spoke to you yesterday at like five in the afternoon when it may have been the first time you were sleeping in about 48 hours. Great first week. Great first week working with our friends at the volume who just crushed our launch across audio, video, social. Great first week with listeners and watchers, old and new, Simon.

We're generally a top 10 sports podcast right now, which is insane. Great first week, betting went four and one in our contest plays. Overall, winning week for both of us across the board. I think I got some criticism. I got some feedback, which is a gift. we like it. So we do need to do a better job of letting people know how to find those picks and being clear of what they are. So here's how it's going to go. I know we had some confusion this past week, part of the kinks that we're working out and sort of the crazy transition onto the volume.

But we will go, we will give our final five picks in our Sunday morning show. That is where you can get them. You're going to be able to get that on YouTube. You're going to be able to to get that in your audio feeds. It's posted in the morning with plenty of time to listen or watch and get with those final five picks are. The contest we are playing in Locke's lines on Wednesdays. So we are going to be playing off of those lines. Some confusion. How did we get Baltimore plus one and a half in the contest when the game closed minus one? The contest we play in, lines lock on Wednesday. If we make a Thursday night selection,

we will let people know on the Thursday show, on the Sunday show, that we will let people know via social. Sorry for the confusion. All right, Simon, you won the Sharper Square segment.

I forgot, I think you had Tennessee. I had Miami, which we will get to. We won brass balls. And Simon says, we lost Chad loves love. We lost rock in a hard place. Brutal beat. at the Ravens. Survivor, we had Denver, who definitely made us earn it.

Don't forget, you can get the show, Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe, like the video. While you're at it, you can also subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple Pod, Spotify, etc. All right, this is our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. Let's get after it. Thursday night football. Washington at Green Bay.

Green Bay, three and a half point favorite look. Packers were pretty awesome against the lines last week. there are always two stories to this, right? The lions were not effective offensively. Part of that was their own undoing. Part of that was the Packers pressure. Micah Parsons only played half the snaps. I think he played 29 out of 65 snaps.

He had a sack and three pressures, including one that led to an interception. Simon, like, you nailed the commander's analysis against the Giants. Jaden Daniels would be able to neutralize their pressure. But he was generally mediocre. So what are your thoughts here right now? I don't have a strong opinion on this.

I'd probably lean Packers just because home teams have a little bit of an advantage in the short week on Thursday night historically. Yeah, that's how I look at this one. It's like I actually really like the Packers and it's just because they're at home short week for Washington. And I think we're both on the same page. Our fear with the Packers is are we not overvaluing them at this point? Of course we are.

You know, they had probably until Josh Allen's game, the biggest win in my opinion of that Sunday where it's like that was impressive right because they've been play in my opinion that great they were just that dominant though that even on the day didn't have their A game offensively or defensively they pretty much did whatever they wanted on both sides of the ball so yeah this this is really about the line hard rock right now is you know in New Jersey it's minus three you know minus 120 on green bay I'll take that value because like Chad said it's it's the home team like we love dogs here but on Thursday night I do adjust to it I do like taking the favorites and I do like

taking my key numbers so if you're someone out there you're like why I want to take watching a three and a half yeah there's shop around there's three and a half's out there hard rock might go back to three and a half it's I get your position right it's Daniels as a dog greater than three it's been pretty profitable in his young career at that number but I just think this green bay team if they can just keep it rolling they're just such a better team all together than Washington, right? Washington, it's really questionable about their offensive line. As good as they were in some aspects, like against the Giants, you know, they have some young guys up front and some new faces on their offensive line. And you did see Danos moved out of the pocket

a lot and, you know, struggle moving the ball downfield. So, yeah, Chad, I'm right there with you. It's if we're going Green Bay here, I'd take the three. I don't think those are in our contest. I'm assuming this will be three and a half in the contest. Here's what was interesting to me about the commanders, because I did a little bit of deep dive on this game yesterday. Like, they weren't awesome. Jaden Daniels wasn't great, but they were just so much more talented, and the Giants were so incompetent. Jaden Daniels had multiple drives in that game where he had second and very long, second in 15, second and 19. And within two plays, he was converting.

that into first downs. And everything about him, nothing seems chaotic. It all seems doable, right? There's just like some quarterbacks, we saw this a little bit with Lamar before the chaos at the end, where it's so scary to bet against them because they can convert in the most challenging of situation. So I get why people would want to lean into the commanders right now. I'm just leaning into the team at home that's a field goal favorite. Yep, right there with you. All right. This is a really interesting game to me.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is a three-point favorite at Hard Rock, and it had been trending towards that number. It opened at three and a half and has been going, actually opened it five and a half, and it's been going down, down, down. Look, the Jags were goodish against a much. much less talent the team, you know.

I think we put that one in the category of they did what they're supposed to do. And the Bengals straight up should have lost on Sunday. They had fewer than half as many yards as the Browns. They averaged almost two yards less per play. They had half as many first downs. Joe Burrow completed 14 passes for 113 yards. average 3.85 yards per attempt. Even with multiple third and fourth down drops by the Browns,

the Bengals defense still allowed the Browns to go 11 of 19 on third and fourth down conversions. Like, if you're a Browns fan, this is truly sickening, here's my problem. I think this has been way over-adjusted. Five and a half down to three? At this point, like, this was five and a half until Sunday at 6 p.m. And it dropped two points because of the way the Bengals played.

Dude, am I crazy for liking the Bengals here? You're not at the number. I agree. But there are three and a halfs out there. Like, honestly, it was coming in here. I was hoping we would take the Jaguars. But like you said, the number is moving too much. Probably going to get to two and a half by the way it's going right now.

because that's that's some real professional money now that's coming heavy on this Jaguar side. And they were spot on last week. So it's hard for me to sit here and doubt them when they're taking a position on this team. And they nailed it last week in this matchup and you're really breaking it down. This isn't that great of a match for the Bengals, right? There are guys on the defensive line of the Jaguars that can give them major problems. Like that's as much of you want to bash Joe Burrow because, yes, seven yards for a guy who many say, his top five in the NFL at the quarterback position.

Pretty embarrassing. Let's be honest. And it does fall on him a little bit. Like you can't just make a quick read to get a first down with one of the best receivers in all football. It was a bad look. So, you know, your opinion on the bangles, this is probably a nice by-low spot. So I get why you're like the minus three.

I just, I go back and watch that film and it just looks very scary where their defense is terrible. There are gaping holes running. and I don't think either of us thinks to Fansky's, you know, on the same level as Liam Cohen as an offensive mind. So if his run game worked, I would think the Jags have an advantage in this matchup of their run game and the run-blocking skirm and offense.

As bad as Trevor Lawrence looks at some points, if he has a good run game, we've seen him really be good and play action and be able to push the ball downfield. So, yeah, I get we're coming from the three and a half to me is the difference. Three and a half, I'm there on the Jaguars. if me and chat are stuck in on a three or two and a half in our contest, I'm not forcing the Jaguars in here.

It's just all about the number because I think we're both weary of this Jaguars team being overvalued of such a dominant week one. Yeah, look, there's actually trends that back taking the Bengals here, you know, when two good teams are playing each other and one team is off a blowout win and one team won by a very small number, historically, you want to take the team that won by the very small number. It's sort of flashing red for me, actually flashing green. Simon, you know that I spent the summer working on like various models and systems and

stuff with my Harvard stats intern. And this is one of the games that the model is saying bet, bet, bet, bet. I'm a little hesitant because it's a little different when it's one game into the season versus five games into the season, so I'm not rushing. And the trend, right? The Sean, we talked about the borough trend of one and nine straight up, I believe, in the first two weeks. That's scary. Yeah, yeah.

That's a real thing. Yeah. So like, to me, I lean bangles here just because of the number, but I don't, I don't want to play it aggressively. I have not made a bet on it. I don't care about it in the contest. It just was interesting to me. But the line is in the two and a half might be unavoidable. Once it hits that number, how do you not take the Bengals at this point?

You're going to have to. The Bengals offensive line, was terrible. And granted, the Brown's defense was amazing, but you made a very good point, like Josh Heinz Allen is a fierce pass rusher. And even if nothing else in the Jaguar's defense is great, like he can create pressure that will be disruptive to the Bengals and make their offensive line really, really challenged. So it's a scary game. It's a weird game to want to dive into deeply as a better. dude. New England at Miami. Miami is a one and a half point favorite. Look, I said this on the

Sunday show. This opened at one and a half. It got bit up to two and a half. When it got up to two and a half, there was one, one and a half still out there. So I grabbed the one and a half. And it started moving back in the Dolphins direction because yesterday, apparently everyone watched film and ran their models and realized, you know, what you've known for months. The Dolphins team has no secondary. It has no offensive line. If Tua can't get his first read, he's in total shock mode. Mike McDaniels might be out of tricks. And oh, by the way, it was reported this morning that Tyree Kill has been accused of domestic violence by his estranged wife. I was a manager, executive for a long time between ESP and an action. And like, I know what it's like when you are

trying to run an organization and everything is going badly because of the choices you made. Like when the things you can control are going badly, I totally get it. But when the things that you can't control are going badly, I'm just imagining Mike McDaniel's face is, As soon as you heard this news, he's like, you got to be freaking kidding me. I don't, I bet the dolphins already. I'm not looking to invest any more in it. Please help me get out of this. You can't be helped.

The fact you already bet it just shows you can't be helped. I get it where you're doing. You're just, you're betting on the team that looked the worst in week one that got blown out. And everyone's killing them in national media. It could work for you. But to me, there is just. no logical reason to back this team where it just feels like this isn't the spot these aren't the spots where this team turns around i think when they get a new head coach whatever it is maybe

in week nine and 10 they have some couple redemption games because like we said they do have talent in some spots like you know a really good running back they have pretty good receivers to uh as loss as he's looked me and chat have seen him look like a comparable quarterback um you know it's it's just so bad, so negative. And, you know, talking about being checked out on your head coach, I think they've been checked out. And that's the fear here is, is he going to

motivate them here? Because in my mind for them, if they just eat this game, I think they think he could be out after the game, right? This is at home. They've already been embarrassed week one. There was a reason he was the favorite, right? To be first head coach fired. So, yeah,

it's bad. And when I look across the field at Rabel, I feel like, this is the perfect kind of spot for him and his team where they're bad as well. And I think we talk a little about that coming of the year where it's like I think they just got too much hype based on their schedule. I was, and we talked about it. Like they were looked at as an easy team to everyone else. While the Patriots were like, oh, look how easy our schedule is.

It's like, you guys are an easy team. So, you know, they have weaknesses. If Christian Gonzalez is in this game, if they have their defense fully healthy and in my mind, this is a much better bounce back spot for Drake May than it was playing that Raiders in that first game where they just looked like they were honestly out-coached by Pete Carroll and his group like preparedness-wise offensively. I mean, you know, Chad knows my love for Gino. That just all worked so well for them. I think it's so negative here. This feels like a type of spot.

Brable gets his guys right. That's why I just liked again, Chad was on the other episode side. When this got the two and a half, I immediately hit the Patriot side. Again, same as you, though. Just dipping my toes in because I don't know how involved I wouldn't even want to be in this game because it's just I hate, I hate, I just hate this Miami team so much because like you think in your own mind, this could be a spot where they bounce back. So I'm not going to make us force in the Patriots, but I can clearly see we're both on opposite sides in this game.

Well, I'm not on any side in this game. Your mind is otherwise. I'm only, I'm only, I made a mistake. Like we all make mistakes. Like I've made, what did I say? This season I was not going to make. I get where you're coming from. I get where your view is in this one.

Because again, it was so embarrassing. It was so embarrassing. Look, there's a, there's a website that's great. That's called Killer Sports. And I discovered, I don't know if you know it or not, Simon. No, but I just love you get on the internet going on weird sites. So Killer Sports. I discovered it when I was hanging with this guy's professional better who lives in Costa Rica.

And we were sitting on his couch all day and watching games. and anytime we started talking sort of in-depth about a game or a team, it could be college football, could be baseball, could be NFL. And we were talking about how does this team do or how does this pitcher do? He would just go to killer sports and there's a search bar and you can type in using real language, you know, anything you're interested in finding out about betting on teams and it's got this database that goes back 36 years.

Oh, it's amazing. So I just typed in like NFL, So teams after a blowout of 20 points or more, I think I did since 2015, because to me, as much data as there is available on sort of betting, 2015 is when the extra point moved back, right? And so it changed how teams go for two and it changed what key numbers are a little bit. So I use that as sort of the line of demarcation. Since 2015, teams off a 20-point loss, cover at a 54% rate. So I have that in the back of my head as I'm going through these matchups.

It's not making me like the Dolphins anymore. I think that if we're talking about two teams off a loss that need to make adjustments, Vrable is going to have his team more ready than Mike McDaniels. But that is a note to consider for the Miami Dolphins. Got you. That's it. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name?

Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember.

I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than that. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian.

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on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. That's it. San Francisco at New Orleans. Look, there's news here, right? Hard Rock Bad has his line at San Francisco minus four. It was at seven. And obviously there's Brock Purdy, injury news.

His status this weekend is uncertain because of toe and injury issues. George Kittle is out because of the hamstring issue. already like the Niners are suffering the injury bug that they tend to suffer every year, which is just a bummer because they're always so talented and I feel badly for this franchise. But look, now the number's down to four, pretty big, pretty big move. All of it's a pass for me. Like I'm not betting on Mac Jones as a favorite on the road. I'm not betting on the Saints as a short home dog.

no thanks yeah this number is moving and it was a game we were honestly probably going to be on like I I liked how the Saints played in that corner game I know they didn't cover

but they'd so many opportunities to do it again they're just a bad team that's why they didn't cover it's just pretty simple and I pretty much been on brand with my four-anners team

I think they are talented but I think they're having a lot of growing pains and unfortunately for them they're not going to be able to go through those growing pains right the injury bug is already hitting this team, which is just brutal. And, you know, this is the type of game where I would have just hoped and prayed that Prady played

because this would have been a huge, huge pick in Survivor contest. And this felt like a trap game coming in. And because, again, that 49ers win over the Seahawks, that's a huge emotional win on the road against a divisional opponent. Like, this was a bad spot for this 49ers team. and now like Chad just said, Hard Rock here in Jersey, they're four and a half. They're going down to four in most books. So, you know, the number is moving towards the four from the four and a half. That just shows where the professional money is and it shows that I don't think they think

Prady is going to play. And I don't have an opinion on it now because the number's moved so much that if Pretty doesn't play, it's Mack Jones. That's a big deal. Like what Pretty does so special on that team is his legs, like what he can do. with his legs. So yeah, I think we can be patient here, Chad. If we're lucky in this line locks a four and a half like in contest like most of you. And by kickoff, this is down to two and a half three. That's going to be a long, hard thought, you know, Spencer Rattler over Mack Jones in this

matchup here. Because again, on paper, Kumar and McCaffrey, McAfree obviously is better, but in their systems, pretty similar running backs, right? Catching out of the backfield, really versatile out weapons. Like there's a lot of counter them on the offense and then defensively. We saw that Saints, they got a lot of veterans, right? Like they have a lot of guys that are still there that have been there for a long time that produce.

So I don't know. I'm trying not to get too into this now because the line could go right back up to seven if Purdy's cleared. So this is again, be patient. If you want to grab the four and a half on the Saints now, just because the professionals are moving this to four. I can't hate you. I can't fight John. I'm probably most likely going to do it once we get off this call.

You know, the injury for Purdy is a shoulder and a toe, the reports are, apparently the toe's worst. Yeah, that's what I was just going to say. The reports are that the toe is significantly worse. And to your point about him being a mobile quarterback who can make plays and sort of keep plays alive with his legs, that's huge. Like even if it's a hindrance for the next four, five, six, seven, whatever weeks, that's something that's going to impact them.

one thing the Niners had a terrible game rushing the ball against the Seahawks and we're going to get into the Seahawks and the Steelers in a minute but they could get healthy so to speak rushing against the Saints who just gave up 150 yards on the ground to the Cardinals right like the Niners in every way even if it's Mac Jones and they can crowd the box the Saints can the Niners will find a way to be more effective running the ball against the Saints. I do. I was like, I don't know. Again, I just have questions about that offensive line. And just the 49ers, I think people saw that, you know, if you rewatch that game, it was all a pretty that bailed them out, right? That was either going to be a pick in the end zone or a touchdown, a 50-50 ball at the end of the game. And then a very, very well-timed, Bosa, pushing the alignment into, you know, get that sack, strip sack.

at the end of the game on Darnold, which, you know, sealed the game. So it's like they're two big-time stud stepped up at end of the game. And now they might not have Purdy, a guy they desperately need. It's just something to keep in mind how big of a deal he is to that team. Oh, it was totally fluky that they covered that game. They have no right winning the game, let alone covering the game. That's why I love superstar players, right? They show up in those moments.

And that's why you win those big games. Cleveland at Baltimore. line is 10.5. Look, this was at 12 and a half on Sunday. Yeah, it's moving. It's moving. It went down to 11.5 and then yesterday went back up to 12.5 and then all of a sudden, just this morning, there's been a rush on the Browns and it's moved back down to 10.5.

I know the side that we want to play here is the Browns, right? I don't love it as much as I thought I would. No, I love this match of the Browns, but obviously it's all about the number. If we can get nine and a half, I'm happy to flip to the Ravens, right? I have this right at 10. So still at 10 and a half, I do like Cleveland, but I'm in the same boat of like, if the public absolutely was hammering the Ravens and this, I got up to 13, 13.13 and a half, what I loved it.

Would have been Simon says most likely. Like, I don't care taking them back to back weeks because it's like, we're just playing the value here. So the number, early line movement, to me is right. It should have been Cleveland money early here. Like that, Ravens are really talented. They're really good. It's a divisional game. It's a divisional game in a spot where, you know,

we're probably getting value on Cleveland because they should have won. Like they should have won. This number probably should be under 10. And, you know, if they went by a touchdown or a field, whatever would have been, it would have been a big movement to this line because I think the public would have been much more. respectful of this Cleveland team. But like we talk about, the public is getting smarter.

People on the ESPN and other shows, you know, it's not all brain rot. Some info they're giving out is good. And the info they're giving out is how dominant that Brown's defense was against the Bengals, which is that a Bengals thing? We're about to find out this week. It was that a Bengals problem or was that Cleveland's defense being that good. So, you know, at this number, I like it. This is a better defense than the bills.

That's for damn sure. So they absolutely don't have the MVP of just. Josh Allen. That's why we're getting 10 and a half. So not going to force it in. We like Cleveland side. If it gets under 10, we can have a conversation about the Ravens. Because at that point, the disrespect is too far. And this is still, you know, the number one, number two seed in the AFC. Yeah, look, you just took the words out of my mouth.

The bills past rush totally wreaked havoc on the Ravens on Sunday night. And the Browns are better at every level than the bill. defensively. They're better. Their secondary is so much better. Their pass rush is so much better. Their defense, you know, it's hard to quantify all of the ways in which their defense was so dominant, situationally and overall against the Bengals.

Like they made Joe Burrow look like he was a rookie playing in his first game. They were just freaking brilliant. literally we were you joked but it was literally almost impossible to lose that game and they did lose it it's incredible that's just because it's Cleveland yeah but mathematically like you've seen all the numbers where it's like yeah two and 300 all these teams what what the bangles were in that exact spot now like they're the third team ever to win getting seven yards in the second half I'm going to give you a stat though ready are you ready? Ready since 2015

double-digit road dogs in the division only cover 43% of the time. Wamp-wom. Yeah. Not the best spot, but again, still love it a little bit. But like we said, I'm hoping, honestly,

this goes to Ravens 9.5. That's what I would prefer. That would be the spot to back. I'd rather, honestly, I'd rather bet the Ravens in single digits at this point than bet the Browns at double-digit dogs. But that Ravens defense, they came out slow last year.

Who knows what they'll be this year. But it's hanging on me, Chad, this exact spot last year, Raiders, 10 point dogs. Yeah. Oh, I remember. So it's a weird thing with this team. I don't know if it's, I guess it can be put on a hard ball, right? I think at the end the day, this all has to be put on a horrible. He's got arguably the best running back, best quarterback tandem ever.

So it's just weird they keep losing these games where they have huge leads. And yeah, we expect the bounce back spot here. So I think we're in line here. If it's nine and a half, we'll have a real decision to make. Yep, yeah. All right. Let's do a quick message from our friends at Hard Rock. We are crazy excited to announce our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock, Bed.

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Gambling problem, call 1-800-gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois. New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. All right, we're looking at the Giants in Dallas. Dallas is a five and a half point favorite. This number has been moving in the direction of the Giants. A little surprised, to be honest, that there would be any enthusiasm for the Giants at all after this past week.

They seem like they could compete with the dolphins for worst record in the NFL. because I don't know what they're going to do on offense. They already look like they are falling apart on the sidelines. Russell Wilson was just dreadful, right? I was actually pretty encouraged by the Cowboys on Thursday night. Like you could see in these games for these two teams over the weekend, how a team with a mediocre roster can be better and competitive

with a very good quarterback and how a bad quarterback can just bring that whole team down. And you called it in the preseason about how good DAC is. It just changes everything for a team when that quarterback can make plays. And so to me, I like, you know, this line actually exploded on Sunday and there's been some buyback. Probably lean Dallas here. Yeah, love Dallas. And, you know, that week one, I got so many message about why I bet so heavy week one.

And we've talked about it, right? It's just if I can bet something for a month at a time, it's so easy for me to get a lot of money down. And the Cowboys, that was a rare opportunity. We talked, that was seven, opened at seven. And I kept saying, it's just, this is not a DAC line. Like, people just forget the talent of DAC because he was hurt. And, man, that I always have egg on my face. because you don't ever expect Parsons trade.

And that was the scariest part of that line where it's like, you know, I wanted to see what their defense was going to be like, obviously, without Parsons, because to me, we saw it against Eagles. Like, there was no pass rush without him. Like, totally neutralized. He is by far the best player in that defense.

How would they, why would they get rid of this guy? Like, you saw it in that Eagles game. It is a big deal, right? And you can say, well, they came out, they made adjustments to the defense played way better, especially against the run, which was that was, the biggest deal right they wanted to prove against the run you saw that so you know the hesitation

about this cowboys team that would be it right we don't really still know what they are but to me it's again being confident in why i'm betting this i have this number at seven so this is really about deck deck beats the shit at a bad teams especially in his own division this giant's team is a bad team and you know you saw people trying to force their doubt like their giants love this off season and, you know, talk about how good their D-line is. There are so many other aspects to a team besides the D-line. That's why I thought their draft pick was dumb. A Dube card is an incredible talent.

I get you have to take them. Your offensive line is so bad. It is three, four years away from being fixed if you're the Giants. And you knew you were taking dart late in the first. Like to me, you trade down at least from that pick and you get offensive linemen because we've seen that's that's that's the problem around this giant's team Russell Wilson had no time I mean neighbors is losing his mind that offense is putrid I mean this might have to be a survivor pick because when else are we going to use Dallas in this exact spot right right Dallas at home

coming off a game they should have won you know CD gifted that win to that Eagles team that they lost that game 30 different ways that Eagles team like that was such a Dallas win you know between the fumble the untimely fumbled and the jesus drops by CD. I can't imagine what their practice is like this week and just DAC knows they cannot be going 0 and 2, let this be a close game. I see them rolling. I love this number. It's going to be

probably the most public line I like this week, right, the minus 5 and a half, minus 6. So I like that the pros are buying back on the Giants. They can't quit them. They're like you with Miami. They just can't quit it. And I see what they see. But man, this just feels like a bad spot and a bad match for the Giants team, which we talked

about their schedule is just so brutal. There's no week off. Every week is just brutal, brutal, brutal. And this is another bad week. So yeah, I'm not there on this giant team. Seven and a half. If it gets there, yes, I like giants, but under seven, this is, I think we're in sync.

This is totally a Dallas line and a good number. It's so weird how so many wise guys were playing the giants against the commanders. Big money too. You were all over the commanders. Yeah. And everybody was piling into the Giants. This was the stat, the most telling stat to me out of that game. The Giants had 11

scoring opportunities with plays inside the 10-yard line. Four of them from the three-yard line. They failed on all 11. Like, they were falling apart before our eyes. Any other game, the commanders were, were, any other, the commanders play any of their team, and that's a close game. Like, they were, they were keeping them in the game. And the Giants could not figure out a way to capitalize on anything. They just looked completely lost. It's like the Hall of Fame legacy for Russell Wilson, you know,

when he was at peak leaving Seattle, every year just gets worse and worse and worse for Russell Wilson. We owe people a Simon says. We owe people a Chad loves love. This feels a little too square for me to go Chad loves love. But the way you talk about it, I'm tempted. And it's sort of in the range of what I like to bet teams, like that three to nine. So it's interesting.

Definitely tempting with a five and a half because that to me is a really good number right now on this cowboy side. Yeah. I got to consider that. Listen, Detroit is now a five and a half point favorite hard rock bet over the Chicago Bears. You mentioned this on Sunday night and then yesterday I texted you. I called you. I'm like, were you really leaning Detroit four and a half?

And you're like, I can't even remember what I said because I was up for 36 straight hours until the Sunday show. But you did say, let's get the four and a half for Detroit now because it's going to go up to five and a half. The bears look bad, right? That was probably my rationale. They did. Here's the problem. I'm a little skeptical about the Lions, like digging into that game. I thought in the first half they had opportunities to sort of make this game close

and not have it be so lopsided for the Packers in terms of the score. But I'm worried about their offensive line. Like Frank Ragnow, the center retired. Kevin Zitler, the guard, left in free agency. They had a couple of rookies in there who just looked like rookies. And will they get everything fixed over the course of, you know, five days of practice. So this running game can be sort of the bulwark that it had been that sets everything up for Jared Gough.

I would lean into the Lions because I think clearly their coaching staff is better than the Bears. But I don't love this game right now. Yeah, I hope Bears fans hear this. Don't be so doom and gloom. I know that's the whole Chicago personality. It's just, oh, we lost game one. The world's over. We're the worst team ever.

Burn it all down. Caleb's a bus. We showed, I get it. That's very Chicago, but I talk about this is, you have to treat this. Caleb's rookie year. Last year was a total waste. You know, this offense, you watch that game. Chad, you saw it.

It's, it's, when it works, it looks really on. And it's, you know, it's a great system. So if Caleb's, you know, not the guy, he will be gone, but at least you can see that you most likely have a coach who he needs to go through his own growing pains as well. He's going to do stupid stuff, make stupid calls, and that's just the way it is. I mean, in that game, they had that pick six and their next five possessions. I could be wrong, but I was positive because I watched that game. The next five possessions were either a punt or a missed field goal. So again, they're up 176, and they have all

these punts, they have the missed field goal, and then in the fourth quarter, the Vikings came back. So, you know, at the end of the day, it's on Caleb, Chad, and that's my fear here, is I, we had Seth Wicker Shamel on, and I pressed him about the mental makeup of this kid, because to me, in life, you want adversity. You want someone that's failed a lot and dealt with, you know, challenges. And he just seemed like he was so talented, he just floated through his whole life. And, you know, whether it was in high school, Oklahoma, USC, he was always great until his last year there. And we're seeing with that Bears game.

Like there was, he had open guys. He missed. And that's my, that's my fear with Caleb here where, you know, that number seems so big to me with the lines because it's still the lines. They could have just been one bad game and they're legit. They'll be fine this year. Or like we keep thinking, that offensive line, that's a major issue. Their offense line is a big problem.

And they didn't make adjustments like Green Bay outscheme them and made better adjustments. Even in that second half, I mean, they got a late touchdown with, well, like two minutes left, the lines. But like Chad's saying here, there's a lot to be doubtful of this Lions team. So if anything, I'll just not not bet this one. But I think in the day, if it's under six like it is right now, that's good value towards this Lions team. that, you know, if they do click, they could roll this Bears team 40 to 17. Like, that would not be that shocking where couldn't, I mean, there's a couple of really bad losses, week one that's up there for the worst loss of the week.

You're at home, prime time, 176, vibes could not be higher and just total, total train wreck. And, you know, like Chad's doing a little bit of soul searching, JJ, you can see it, right? you see the top 10, the possibility. A lot of moxie. A lot of moxie. So much moxie. I yesterday about 5 o'clock, 5.30. My buddy Matt called me.

Everyone who's been listening to the show for years knows Matt. And he says to me, I say hello. He doesn't even say hello. He just starts ranting about how much the bears suck. And it's 5.30. The game is three hours away. I'm like, what are you talking about? He goes, I'm just getting it out of the way

because I know this is how I'm gonna feel and this is what I'm gonna be saying. We were texting the end of the game. He couldn't have been more right. Like everything you said. It was, I don't know about you. I was like, all right, Chad was right about his bears being a home divisional dog.

That was right, but. I was right for about, 75% of the game. I've never seen, again, this is why the JJ Mystique is at all time high. I've never seen a guy in his first game, throw a pick six, and then the fourth quarter score three touchdowns.

Throwing two, rushing for one. Just, again, Vikings. Baller. Yeah, you might come crashing and burning, but I would be very excited because I could not believe what I was witnessing, where this guy were a few things in this game. Totally lost.

There were a few things. He looked totally lost and out of his depth for three quarters. But then Kevin O'Connell, who we love, like, I think he's a top five coach easily in the NFL, what he has done year after year with Kirk Cousins, then Sam Darnold, now J.J. McCarthy. He's got to win something for me, but I get where you're coming from.

His ability to turn nothing into something in the middle of a game, he's the reason they won that game. He found what would make J.J. McCarthy comfortable, put him in positions to succeed, and the guy was throwing lasers at the end of the game to guys who had to receivers who had been schemed open and so just really impressive. I actually on Twitter this morning and threads.

I asked followers to give me a redraft of the 2024 QB class, the six quarterbacks. Yeah, you went that route. I said Jaden Daniels, number one, almost universally, Bo Nix was number two. I'm like, that's fucking stupid. And then JJ, it was like JJ and Pennix were three and four. And most of it was then Drake May 5 and Caleb Williams 6.

That's insane. Isn't that great? If you have ideas on this, put it in the YouTube chat. I'm going to respond when I jump in. Give me your redrafted top six from 2024. All right. Interesting game coming up. Jets at Buffalo, Buffalo, six and a half at Hard Rockbet right now.

Big move on this one. This was at eight and a half. We both lean jets. And this was before the bills went against the Ravens. Then it moved down considerably. At six and a half, I'd go with the bills here. Am I sharp or am I square on that one? Definitely square.

My view of it is just your read of the line might have moved too much. Could be true, but at the same time, I think this is the proper amount of movement for how, bad and banged up and injured that builds secondary defense is like you you see how important having a safety who can come downfield and tackle is like that is everything in football if you if you can't stop the run with your safety you will give up huge huge plays and what i took from that jet steam is big plays like bruce hall is good like he's what a year and a half removed now from that knee injury and he looked like he had that step back which was

missing. And that's why people are saying he was a guy that could be getting traded and, you know, this whole, you know, preseason, everything like that. And like, you know, Justin Fields going back watching that game, he had three or four throws. That could have been pick sixes, like insanely tight windows, but he made the throws. And we've seen it when Fields is on, he looks like a top five, top ten quarterback. It's incredible because he's so athletic. His delivery is so smooth and his deep ball looks amazing. So, you know, I want to be there on the bills. I agree with Chad. Like it feels like I should be more tempted on this bill's team. But on the road against the Jets, you know, I just could see the Jets always keeping right behind them, like keeping the score close. So another game I won't

force because the numbers move too much where at seven and a half I would have been very more, ironically, I would have been very confident this Jets team. But we've seen it with Josh down against bad teams. Usually he beats them up. Wouldn't be shocked if he's got, you know, a double-digit lead. And Justin Fields just has his off day, which is what he does. He's an up and down quarterback. So the matchup wise, though, it's like Fields, he could rush for 100. Like, we literally just saw how bad this team is against the read option.

Like just you're trying to have Bosa on the edge stop a read option. Not the good Bosa either, the older brother. So it's a tough spot for this Bills team. and yeah, I think your read on the value might be on the number. Moving too much is correct. I'm just, you know, I think this probably should be closer to five. It's still six and a half. I am tempted on this bill's team, but it's like, man, I just,

I can't get over how bad their defense is, where it's like even, it's just too much, it's too big of a number to me for that defense where that could be major wrong because Josh Allen is just that good. Where if he's just tearing up this Jets defense, that just got torn up by Rogers, obviously that favors Josh Allen in this spot. I don't think Justin Fields is Lamar Jackson. And so I don't want.

He's pretty close. I'm going to say that right now. Right, but he's not the passer that he is. And so I do think that Lamar Jackson's threat as a passer changes how you play defensively and the bills will scheme to really just make sure Justin Fields, Fields can't be beating them as a runner and only has the option to pass. What do you think Pittsburgh did? Pittsburgh sold out to stop him as a runner, and he burned him with his legs and the

running back burn him. In Pittsburgh was the number one highest paid defense. They got the guys, and they had a banged up secondary. You just saw what Fields did to have banged up secondary. That's what I'm saying. There's just so many similarities here. I get your hesitation with Fields, but man, this Bill's. defense has so many injuries. It's brutal. I was thinking about adopting new teams in the

AFC, just so I have something to root for. I settled on the Ravens over the bills because the bills I felt like would just break my heart in the same ways as the Bears would. I think the Ravens are going to break my hearts in different ways. So I might just adopt the Ravens in the AFC. Here, the value that we could have had eight and a half is just not going to be there. And it's setting up to be a game where there's so much emotion for the Jets right now. Classic. Fade the Jets. Fade the hype.

But the books, this is going to be the books, one of the books biggest needs because you can tease the bills now to a pick. Like that's why that line movement to me was such a huge deal. The fact that they've crossed into this six and a half number is it's just going to be heavy, heavy, heavy bills money. and they knew what they were doing. So that's really respected money

that came in on the Jets and moved this number. But like you said, Chad, your read could be right that it could have moved too much at this point, but this is definitely a game we're going to be talking about again on Thursday. I have no doubt this would be a big wise guy call. All right, look, we still owe people that Chad loves love, we still owe people with Simon says. Like last week with the Browns,

I wonder if we're going to have a little debate over that, over who's going to get to claim ownership on this next game. Seattle at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is a three-point favorite at Hard Rock Bet, and really across the board. You really like Seattle in week one. And then I had some critiques about Seattle, which you scoffed at on Sunday night.

And then I actually did a lot of rewatching of this game. And this line has actually moved up from two and a half to three since Sunday. There are lots of reasons to fade Mike Tomlin as a favorite, and we did it against the Jets this past weekend. He's not profitable as a favorite at home either, as he is not on the road. Here's what's tickling me about this game. Seattle's defense was really excellent against the Niners. Opening TD Drive, they basically kept the Niners scoreless the rest of the game until the final drive, the pressure on Purdy was relentless.

They limited them to just over three yards per carry. They were opportunistic. You unpacked that Steelers game, and Aaron Rogers, like, one of his TD passes was a shovel pass, another was on a short field. He was sacked four times. His QBR was middle of the pack. He didn't even attempt to throw more than 20 yards downfield. The defense for the Steelers, they could not stop the rush.

and 80 yards rushing. A lot of that was Breeze Hall. Some of that was Justin Fields. I'm kind of surprised it moved in the Steelers direction. I liked Seattle more than I thought it would. Chad loves love. He loves the Seattle Seahawks plus three. What?

That's the shocker of the day. This is your favorite bet now? I can't really find one that I love, love, love. Bring back bullying America. Yeah, that's, I'm shocked. I like this number two. I have no fear that it's up to three. If anything, I'm hoping more public money comes up

and the books have to shift it again to three and a half. Because right now, like I'm looking, it's the splits right now. It's all Pittsburgh money. Like heavy, heavy Pittsburgh money right now. So that's what I said. I hope I sit on Sunday night. This is the exact spot you want to be in. You just want to be patient.

Let the masses come and bedded up. And yeah, the Seahawks team don't know if they'll win it because that like the San Darno part of it. But I think you see what I say about them keeping these type of games close. It's like these teams that they're pretty much even with, which is what they were, the 49ers, they will keep games close and ugly games. And their defense can really pull teams down into the mud. And like that's what I really like about that coach and the way he coached up this defense of just never bend and break. Like they're just so, you know, like there's multiple times in that 49ers game where I could see that they were just worn down, right? Because it was just never any relentless of Robinson and McCaffrey that combo for the 49ers run game.

And they just never broke. Like even at the end with that pretty touchdown, like we said, it was a 50-50 ball. Like it could have gone either way. So in this matchup, like we talked about, I just like to see the Calks. And my hesitation will just be diving more into the whole splits of, West Coast team coming east, playing in this exact spot after such a brutal, tough, divisional game, what that means for them. And on the flip side, Pittsburgh, I want to see their injury report because if they are missing all these guys again from their secondary, this is the exact type of matchup we want for the Seahawks in that Kubiak run blocking scheme where they make one or two guys miss.

If the lineback or the alignment missed their assignment, there's going to be gaping holes like we saw for that Jets team against this Pittsburgh team. So another game, Chad, where I like run the same page, the plus three. It's a great number. We're praying. This gets a three and a half for the contest. That would be great value on the Seahawks line. When you say bring back bullying, are you mad that I stole it from you? No, you just, I feel like you were sensitive to me.

Like, you were acting like I was being me through. I was just trying to get you on the same page of like, don't take Pittsburgh here back to Seahawks team. They're not as bad as that, you know, game looked offensively. Like I agreed with you that Darnold did struggle in some aspects, but that running game, you know, there, there's a lot to like, I think, going forward for what that Sealks is trying to set up with their running style. I'm nothing if not open-minded. Okay. You know, I'm willing to see all the angles. I did my research yesterday.

I dug in. I watched some of the game. There you go. I was not, I was just not impressed with the Steelers at all against the Jets. It's partially colored why I'm not, why I'm less impressed with their win than I think other people with their, with their lost and other people are, which is coloring then my feeling about the bills. But I just thought Seattle, like, they dominated that game. And you said at the beginning of the show, Brock Purdy won that game with a 50-50 ball. And then there was a fluky, you know, offensive lineman who runs into Sam Darnold's hand and he fumbles.

when they could potentially win the game. And this line would be two. If they won that, then this line would be two, one and a half. So like we say all the time, you take the value, and especially the fact that this is, you know, besides the Cowboys,

there's a couple other games, but this is... Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, huge news? We created our own podcast called,

Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special.

So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this.

We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my... little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.

Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

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Up there for the biggest public cider now in Pittsburgh. Yep. Denver Indie, Indie Plus 2, lines have been moving from 3 to 2 and a half to 2. not a pro joe split exactly but definitely see the money starting to come in and tilt towards uh indianapolis are you still seeing value on this on sunday night you you were liking the colts where do you stand now yeah another spot like i loved it couldn't believe it opened at three took the value sunday bet it again yesterday now like you just said it's It's down to two. I'd still take that.

Like I talk all the time about key number two is it's going to get the one and a half, I'm assuming. Like this will be pros for stress. I think the poll will come in on this Denver team eventually. Oh, Simon, if the Twitter poll is any indication, people are still full believers in Bo Nix. Right. So I just think they'll throw out last week's game and, you know,

they'll come in here and just think that it's all good. and I just think, you know, a whole offseason you saw Tennessee what they did to Bo Nix to give them problems. That's what it's like, right? You get a full year playing teams have a whole off season to adjust to it and they're going to give them problems. So looking at this matchup, like I said, Colts eventually will jump off this train. I just, I'm playing the number here. So like at plus two at Hard Rock, that's great value in my opinion. I go grab that right now because, you know, I've talked to a couple other guys who are in the same mind.

answer to me and they have money like I do. They'll be betting this cold side. They're going to keep moving this number down. So I think we jump back on here, unfortunately, for our contest talking Thursday. I don't think we're going to get a two, two and a half. I think it's going to go down one and a half, get closer to a pick. And that's going to be a tough choice because at that point where we're chasing a bad number. But yeah, two, if you're hearing this right now, go grab it.

That's good value on this Colts team. But it's not Simon says. Nope, that's a free one. It's just a gift. Just a gift. It's just a gift. Carolina at Arizona, Arizona is a six and a half point favorite at home. Listen, we know the sharp side here is to go bet Carolina. And good for us that we didn't bet Carolina last week. We did not ask anyone to bet Carolina last week. We actually bet against Carolina last week. I know we try to time these spots. a bounce back. The only offensive bright spot for Carolina was Chuba Hubbard. The receiver depth is so limited.

The defense is terrible and has some injuries. Simon, say your peace. I thought Nick Millen played well too, though, their first round six. He played well with like six or seven catches. And he did a nice job getting himself open. when they did have drives and sort of sustain any momentum, it was because Bryce Young was finding him. I'm surprised you're not saying this as Simon says right now.

No, because I'm like you where I'm not told yet. I'm trying to be smart about this Panthers team. And I did go back and watch their game. And as bad it is the Cardinals played in some aspects against that Saints team, they still might be able to run for 200 yards against this Panthers team. Like, they're, there are stuff they do offensively that really favors them in this matchup. And, you know, Cardinals might have got to steal draft.

They have a corner who's, I might be a legit shut down corner. And we, Chad just nailed it. Like, they don't have, if you're taking away now, they're number one pick. And there is no feeling safety route guy. And that was pretty apparent for Bryce Young in that game. He didn't have a number two he could trust, especially on third down. So, yeah, I'm not going to. force it. I might get there on Thursday. We sit here right now. I haven't put a penny on this

Panthers number. And my whole mentality is I just hope there's so much doubt out there like me that no one touches and we do get a seven. Because once there's a seven, I have to take the Panthers once it gets a seven. But six and a half, I can be patient. I can let this number sit. But it's another one we have to look long and hard at for Survivor, Chad, because this is another good spot for the Cardinals. But man, this Panthers team, it's so brutal because I want to believe in them, but they just have so many

gaping issues. And when you just look at the numbers from that week one matchup, we'll see if that was just a Jags thing, but it's incredible how bad they're run defenses. And if you can't stop the run, you have one of the worst secondaries in football as well defensively. It's just tough. There's just nothing else left for them to do

defensively to get stops. You know what? I'm still really proud of us. That we're not sort of just blindly going with the Panthers at six and a half because we think there's something there because right now I'm not sure we think there's anything there. Rams at Tennessee, Tennessee plus six. I know we want to take Tennessee. The Proves has moved on Tennessee. It's at one point moved from six to five and a half and got that back up.

I don't really know what we learned about the Rams and we can say the same thing about the Texans when we talk about the Texans and the Bucks. a few minutes. I like cam ward was pretty terrible not the reason they lost the game but there you you know he wasn't anything that were like yep number one pick going to be in the hall of fame not like he has to be in the first game I got no lean here I got to send you a clip he he was good I think cam ward was good in this game it's just the team around him the coaching all of it that's that's the issue of Tennessee and this was almost almost

Simon says, but I'm trying to be patient. But there is, like, to me, when I touch six, it's like, oh, my God. The value here is incredible. It's Stafford outdoors, that team outdoors on grass against a Tennessee team that I think people are like Chad. They didn't really think Cam Ward looked good. Where I couldn't believe how good he looked against that Broncos defense. Like, there was two different times where he got first downs using his legs and they

called it back for holding. I do think the offensive line will get better at that. They'll either be call signs from the sideline. Like there's stuff they can do where they can yell out. The note will let go, right? The no to let go when the defense defender is pulling away because Cam Ward is moving upfield. But, you know, his weird arm angle, you saw it give Calvin really some problems, right?

He had some major drops in that game. Again, stuff that I think is going to prove as his go along. So to me, I just love this Tennessee team. Maybe I'll make it try to get you on the same side and make it our ballsy bet again. I just, I can't get over the spot, the line value, and the fact that, like you just said it, I think the pros are joining the public on this ramp side. Yeah. This number is going to keep going up.

So in case it doesn't, grab the six now, but love this spot for a team that, you know, the Rams, they're skating, right? They won their game, so they're not getting much hate, but they didn't look that good against Houston. Like that, that was really unscating. CJ, right? CJ settling for field goals and not getting touchdowns with the difference of that game in that first half. I think it was nine, seven and a half. And then they didn't get at a point maybe the rest of the game that Houston team. So Rams defense could be very legit. Right. Another really tough assignment for this, this offense in Tennessee. But honestly, I look at the match and I'm just like,

there's there's ways for Tennessee to win this matchup and attack this Rams team. And, you know, Rams coming off that big physical game now on the road, now outdoors. let the public keep button it up. Give me, give me higher than six. I'll take the six now. But at six and a half, chat,

I might have to force this one and just be like, we might lose it because we know the deal, right? It's a rookie here playing against Stafford, but too much respect for a ramp team that I think they got a little lucky in their week one match, but I think their defense has been a little overrated now because of it. Philadelphia at Kansas City,

got a little line flip here. It opened it. Chiefs one and a half on Sunday night. It is now Kansas City plus one. You liked the Eagles in this game when we talked on Sunday night. It has flipped. We don't love making that play when a team has gone from one point underdog to one point favorite. We did it with the Ravens.

We bet them on Sunday night personally when it had gone from plus one to minus one. A little bit of a kick in the dick. but I think we just think the Eagles have a better roster here. And as you said the other night, I don't think they're practicing these past few days as they won a game. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a rebuilt offensive line that was not very good

and now they're going to play against an even angrier, Jalen Carter. Like, the Eagles were freakishly balanced in that game against the Cowboys in a way that really highlighted how we're in control of the offense Jalen Hertz is and how they know their power. Their biggest issue was the lack of discipline,

which I believe they will fix because they know how much they can't get away with that against a team like the Chiefs. Yeah, and the Eagles, I think it was some freakish thing. They looked at the most penalty yards in football in that first half against Dallas. Like just everything felt like goes going wrong with that weather delay.

And, you know, Carter plays that game. weather delay you can see how there's ways that they just roll that cowboys team right because obviously he he's the difference in that middle between the run all yeah yeah such a huge deal um you know i look at this game and i am just i don't know about you but it's like this this is usually me and chat auto play the chiefs like they're going to be an underdog at home i cannot see the public coming on this chief's team honestly i mean maybe in their teasing is right if this gets up to one and a half they'll throw them in up to seven and a half but betting it straight i'm assuming it's going to just be all public money on this eagles team as long as

it's under three and i told chat i i agree with it on sunday night and i model it i don't know if my model understands how big of a deal the worthy out is but it's at a pick so technically you know right now it's plus one at hard rock my model thinks there's value on this chief's team i just disagree i just I really dive into. They look so slow defensively in many ways. And maybe that was because of the travel. But, you know, I just, their defense in spags,

they didn't make adjustments that really wowed me. And they felt like there was no move to make where this Eagles team can beat you in so many different ways. And they don't, like, you know, we might not have Dickerson. They might have, you know, a substitute in there at the guard position, which is a big deal.

And that could be a huge game breaker for Chris, Jones but it's like offensively I just don't know how the chiefs keep up with them now if you're out your number one number two receiver and you're running back becheco is not the same guy and you got left you know tackle that's a rookie it's like these things add up about this chief's team not being the team of the past that's getting so much respect so it's hard Chad I really hate it because it feels so chalking we're walking right into it we're walking right into what we know it just feels like a trap but um this is a game I'm going to wait on talk to people the books like I'm looking are going to be in the books all day today and just talking to people and see what the public is.

But I'm assuming I'm in the Philadelphia area. Everybody's just going to be so about this Eagles team. It's going to push me to love in this Chief's team. I know it. But I'm trying to keep it, keep it 100 with everyone. And just know that it's a game. I was confident with it, I guess, Sunday night. I'm wavering a little bit just because everything about it.

The alarms are going off where it's like this is a chief spot. But I just, I can't get over the fact, is it? is it a chief spot this is not the same chiefs team of old that me and you blindly back like this is real hesitation i just breaking it down i don't know how they move the ball in this eagles defense this this again as the good of the chargers team is they're not as good as this eagle's defense across the board so yeah revenge spot super bowl everything i get it but you know me and chat talked about that travel all of it that's just it's so negative for this chief's team and and know it's hard to think but then being owned too that's that's a real thing right now i think

that's something that's actually going to happen. Look, every year it catches up, right? And the key to winning and betting sometimes is catching the wave before it crests. And we're trying to do that with the chiefs right now. And this might be the spot. Atlanta and Minnesota, this is the Sunday night football game. You still owe us a Simon says, second prime time game in a row for J.J. McCarthy, second time being a prime time favorite

in his many starts. I think I'm going to call him J.J. Moxie. I'm going to coin that right now, trademark it. If you'd like to buy it from me, that's totally cool. I can sell it like it's the late 90s like I'm selling, you know, internet names. Early money was on Atlanta, but then it all flipped after the game last night. The line got up to five and a half for a minute. Now it's been bought back. Atlanta, Sharper Square. Can't believe it, but Simon says, give me the Vikings minus four and a half.

Wow. I know. And it's shocking that I would love of such a public favorite on a slay night game. But I'm just grabbing this now in case it does go up to six. I just, going back and watching that Atlanta team against the bucks, Atlanta is going to have major issues.

Like they're a line banged up as it is. that's going to be a problem now when you're going against, you know, to me, a great defense in the Vikings. That's what, like, Caleb took a lot of shit. He dodged a lot of sacks. Like, he had guys coming on him one-on-one, and he was able to get

out of it. Penix doesn't move like that. Like, Pennix is not that type of guy in the pocket where if you get him off his spot, he struggles. And, you know, when I look at this matchup, I wasn't rushing to bed in it because I wanted to see what JJ could do. But

They match up perfectly against this Atlanta team. They're going to be able to run the ball for days. Like that, that's going to be very apparent to people early on this matchup. And, you know, it's really about the number here. So to me, I have it at six. It's four and a half. I'll take the value on this one. And yeah, it's, I'm trying to switch it up because I was literally going to go Tennessee,

but I'm like, okay, last week I made people take the Browns. Let me give them a favorite here. I think there's good value here. and I do think the public, they'll back Atlanta. I honestly believe that. So to me, four and a half, it could go down, but I see the professionals like me getting into their model this Vikings team and being like, wow, this team is legit.

Like, this is a really good team. And defensively, I think they're going to give them major problems to Pennix in this Falcons offense that, you know, other than Robinson busting off an insane catch for 80 yards and making everyone miss, I just did not look the way they looked. They just didn't look consistent against the bucks. And, you know, Pennix, that was his fourth start.

This is a very young quarterback now facing a Flores defense on the road on Sunday night. So don't be shocked why this number is so big. I'm telling you, it should be closer to six. It's just the public right now. Like I'm looking at the splits. It's actually pretty heavy towards this Atlanta team. So like Chad said, maybe people wake up today. There'll be more towards this Vikings team after that big comeback win.

Maybe more money will come on this Viking team. but early money right now looks like it's all Falcons just because people just don't believe in this Vikings team that they should be this big of a favorite where I'm telling you. It's a really bad spot for this Falcons team to be in. Milman likes Seattle on the road as a dog or Chad loves love and Simon says is Minnesota as a favorite in a prime time game.

There are two Monday night games this week. Tampa Bay at Houston is the first one. Houston minus two and a half at Hard Rock. I just thought all the games that these two teams played were both really strange. The Rams Texans was freakishly even, down to the same exact number of players for each team, total first downs. Even the QBs missed this had the same number of incompletions. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay Atlanta could have ended regulation at 23 if not for a missed field goal.

So the line moved from one and a half to two and a half in the first 24 hours in favor of the, of the Texans. Why are people, my first thought is that the professional letters are just more impressed with sort of how the Texans played the Rams than how the bucks barely beat the Falcons. I'm shocked with this too. And I've had like a couple of pros I talked to that. That was their first bet they made was Houston.

And I'm right with you. I went back and watched the game because I know how much I love Tennessee where it's like, all right, I need to really watch this Rams game and see this type of defense they're running here. And, you know, Houston, we knew the deal. They're going to have this incredible defense. Can they block for CJ? Can they have a running game again?

Nick Chubb is not the answer, right? You saw how big of a deal it is that they just don't have a running back in that game. And, you know, the Rams knew they were going to have to beat them with their arm. And CJ just couldn't do it, right? Like, I think Christian Kirk missed the game. He's starting this kid Higgins, who's, this rookie they drafted this year. And the plan of just doubling Collins

and making CJ use these other guys, it worked. It totally worked in that game. So I think that's what the bucks will do here. We're getting plus three now. Are we suckers? Are we squares here? Because it feels like we're being suckers here

because it's like, yeah, and same type of game. You look at the splits here, all the tickets are on the bucks. But the money is heavy on. this side of Houston. Like, it doesn't make any sense to me. I just think they look at this where it's Houston

their prime time game at home in a spot of they can't lose. Like, they can't lose. They're going to be so much more desperate and hungry in this exact spot for their fans where this historically feels like a type of games, Baker and Tampa, they do lose, right? Emotional road win against a divisional foe in Atlanta. Now you're on the road again in a spot,

where, you know, they're always going to be desperate. We've seen that playing stop from Baker. He's just so scrappy. He can play dead for three quarters and just kill you in the fourth quarter. But, yeah, it's, I think we're on the same page. Like, matchup-wise, I can't believe this number's up to three now. It's like, I have this at two. It's three.

Obviously, I think there's value around the bucks. I'm just waiting to be patient because I know, let me talk to more pros about this. I just can't believe they think so highly of this Houston's defense that way that they just totally think they're going to. to shut down this buck's offense and even if you know cj can't score more than one or two touchdowns that's gonna be enough to win this game because that's that's honestly what they're saying back on their side all right last game monday night football we'll we'll definitely discuss

that one again on thursday we'll get some calls about it i'm sure uh chargers at las vegas raiders it had been at three and a half sunday night i leaned toward vegas because of the hook because it's the hook that brings you back. Shout out Blue's Traveler. Now the line is three at Hard Rock, so someone's taking the hook. Bruce Bowers, I mean, Brock Bowers, I'm mixing up San Antonio Spurs, ex-players, and Las Vegas Raiders, tight ends. Brock Bowers said yesterday he was fine. I was just grabbing the hook. That feels like the sharp side to me. Not a strong opinion of this game is a three. I agree.

Don't force the people. There's three and a halfs out there. Go grab it. Like Hard Rock, even in Jersey, the three and a half is gone. So it doesn't matter what state you're in Hard Rock, that three is going to be where they're at. So we're in the same page. Like, I like the Raiders, but going back and watching that Chargers game, I don't know if it is the Madison Beer effect, but the confidence and swagger that Herbert has,

had my god my god like that was everything we've been waiting to see right like because they put the stat up the reason i'm a herbert hater is because he had 11 straight games where he lost when the the total points were through under three so if he's down by three he had lost 11 straight games in that exact scenario so to me him stepping up big in that fourth quarter just totally alternated my brain with him right now where it's like even at this number at three I'm like, man, that's a Chargers line here. Like to me, they're, they're pretty good. Like, they're looking like if they can put it together like they did against that

chief's team, they're going to be a team that, you know, potential will win this division. Because it's, at the end of the day, it's all in Herbert. People can make excuses, be like you didn't have weapons. Oh, my God, the defense, the coaching. I agree with all of it. But you see the talent level of Herbert. There's a reason these people who, even though you, he's never done anything in his entire career,

make him a top five quarterback, like the raw talent, the athleticism, it is all there. So if he's clicking, we got no prayer. We have no prayer for this Vegas team. If he is clicking like he was against that Chief's team,

because, you know, I get our love for this Raiders team. They beat Drake Me. Like, that's, like their secondary. That's their biggest weakness.

It wasn't truly tested, right? Stefan Diggs didn't impress them. Like, Glad McConcky. he's from a different planet compared Stefan Diggs at this at this point in his career.

So I'm glad we're not forced this one in. You know, three and a half, that was staring at me. I think the same thing as you on Sunday night where it's like that is really good value on this Raiders team. And it was all about Bowers. If ours is good to go,

that makes it even better of a number. But at three, two and a half, I am leaning towards this Chargers time. I literally have this number at three. So at three, I won't force it, but I do like charges at three minus two and a half, but a three and a half if i got to make a play on it to me that's the value that's that raiders number all right i don't think i skipped any games um i got them all we got a list to review

really fascinating list some numbers that were just waiting to see how they move before we can make a decision about are we going further into the conversation with betting how do they shape up for our contest chat loves love is seattle plus three um simon says is minnesota minus four and a half. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. We are presented by Hard Rock Bat. We'll be back on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on plus our survivor picks, our head-to-head battle, our brass ball, so much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel. Also, download some Spotify, Apple Pod, wherever you get your pods. Subscribe, rate, review. Feedback is always the gift. Don't forget, we are collecting all

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