The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL Week 3 bets: Rams-Eagles, Lions-Ravens, Chiefs-Giants, Cowboys-Bears and more

Episode Date: September 16, 2025

Expert bettor Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter check the latest football lines and start making their bets for all the big NFL Week 3 matchups: Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills, and more. All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet. 4:45 - Dolphins-Bills 8:30 - Packers-Browns 14:15 - Texans-Jaguars 21:15 - Bengals-Vikings 25:00 - Falcons-Panthers 33:30 - Steelers-Patriots 39:00 - Rams-Eagles 46:15 - Raiders-Commanders 48:00 - Jets-Buccaneers 52:15 - Colts-Titans 57:15 - Saints-Seahawks 1:01:00 - Broncos-Chargers 1:09:00 - Cowboys-Bears 1:16:00 - Cardinals-49ers 1:18:15 - Chiefs-Giants 1:22:30 - Lions-Ravens 1:27:00 - Bets recapSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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The number one betting show. It makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined, as always, by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre professional better, Simon, Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing, brother? Dude.

So at the end of our show on Sunday night, we were talking about favorites dominating, and it feels a little bit like they are picking up where they ended last season. They were winning at such a rate last year. the biggest sportsbook operators in the world in their earnings calls in the third and fourth quarter of the year had to reduce their revenue projections because of what they described as customer-friendly outcomes. It means the favorites are winning too much, right? And that means the public is winning too much because all the big favorites are covering and winning outright. So our pal Evan Abrams, greatest researcher in the world, had a tweet on, I don't

Sunday night, Monday morning, that favorites who closed at more than four are 12NO straight up this season, 64 and 7 since week 13 of last year. Faves of six plus points are 47 and 4 in that span. A reminder, over this past weekend, the four point favorites were San Francisco, one, Baltimore, one, Detroit, one, Buffalo, won. Rams, one. By the way, those teams all covered as well. The two that didn't cover, but still won, were the Cowboys and Cardinals,

the Cardinals who gave it away in the final five minutes. So it's why we added Simon, that money line round robin for favorites. The dogs can't win. They can barely cover. So if you don't change, you don't evolve, right? And we evolve. Simon, do you want to know how we're going to prove it this week?

I'm looking forward to you showing me, Chad. It's our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. We will have a battle, Simon. A battle of perception versus reality. Now that we have two weeks of games, let's get after it. Don't forget, you can get all the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe.

Like this video while you're at it. You can subscribe to Sharper Square, Apple Paz, Spotify, etc. All right, look, Thursday night, Miami at Buffalo. a buffalo buffalo is a 12 and a half point favorite. I think the theme for this episode really is perception and reality, old school philosophy versus reality. Old school reality is you bet the dogs have more than 12 points in a division game. The reality, thanks to killer sports,

dogs in those spots are 44% against the spreads in 2015. We avoided it last weekend, ignoring the Browns and the Ravens game. the question is not do we bet the dolphins. The question is, are the dolphins so bad we would bet against them in this spot? That to me, that to me all of a sudden becomes the question. Yeah. And again, it's a game that I'm only going to be on one side. People know my stance on Swampton.

I'm just going to keep fading them every week. I just, until a change happens, right, until they fire the head coach and GM, which I think is just, it's needed. There's just some of these organizations, I mean, we'll go through it today, but like you're two weeks in, what do you think is really going to change, right? You kind of know with some of these teams just the way it started and the way the vibes are. So Miami is just a team that at 14, 14 to half, because it's a standalone game on a short week and Miami's really desperate. I probably could be tucked into it. But at this number, I'll just be like the Joe Public.

I'll throw it in my teaser with someone else from Sunday and just, I mean, I mean, this is going to be just a huge need for the book. So like we just said, Chalk has been winning in the olden days, just four or five years ago. I would love the dolphins in this spot. They're going to be a huge need for the book. And like Chad's saying, no one's going to be betting Miami here. Like this is such a Miami number of Miami spot, but we've seen these Thursday games. They tilt to the favorites at home.

And that's held true. And Chad just said here those stats, these big dogs, they just ain't hitting. like they used to. So I am so happy. We don't need to force this one. And probably not I don't even need to talk about it on a Thursday show. I'm simply looking at this as a teaser spot with the bills. Or if you really want to, you could survivor it.

But I hate doing survivors on Thursday. But I get it. But I just, this number is insane. I can't believe. Honestly, I can't believe that it's up to where it's at. And I could see it keep getting higher just because they need,

they're going to need Dolphins money. I just don't see it come until the professionals. really get that 13, 13.5. So, sitting at 12 and a half, like Chad said, no need to force it. I'm a little surprised it hasn't gotten a 14 already. There's no evidence of things unseen to make you want to bet on the dolphins. It just goes to show you to me that everyone's kind of sitting this one out because it hasn't moved off the 12 and a half since Sunday. So if the wise guys were coming in, they're the ones who are going to bet in the first 40 hours,

48 hours and sort of pluck those early big lines, it's just solid, 12 and a half. So it hasn't gone down to 12, hasn't gone down to 11.5. But it hasn't gone up, meaning everyone's just sort of avoiding it to me at this point. If you have to take the number in a big contest, I would say in this show, I feel like we, you know, Chad just said you don't have to take the Dolphins number. But if you're looking for an angle on the Dolphins side, the best one I could think of is banged up secondary defense that obviously, you know, the Jets couldn't expose in their matchup,

but Miami has the weapons that can. But like, too has just been so bad. He's had these picks. He's throwing all of it. It's just so bad. I am happy that we can avoid this one, brother. Green Bay Packers, who might be the best team in the NFL right now after two games?

They're visiting the Cleveland Browns. The line opened at eight and a half. Actually got that up a little bit to nine. Now it's been bought back down. to eight and a half. I'll tell you this, man. I don't know what to do with the Browns. And I want to get your take on this

because we love the Browns in week one. But the reason we love the Browns in week one is because we believe their defense is elite and statistically they are there proving that to be the case. But they were going against a revamped offensive line and a not very good defense. And then in this past week, I rewatched this game, Simon.

I was on the rower and I rewatched the condensed version in 38 minutes. Of Ravens Browns? Yeah. Oh, God. Yeah, I did. Because here's a thing. Like, statistically, this game made no sense. The Browns had 32 yards.

The Ravens had 242. The Browns had 72 plays. The Ravens had 53. Rushing yards. The Browns had 115. The Ravens had 45. The Browns had 5.2 yards per carry. the Ravens had 2.1.

Third downs, the Browns were 7 of 18, and Ravens were 3 and 12. I am going to get into with the Ravens how this was so deceiving because Joe Flacco was terrible, like objectively terrible. Any pass he threw outside that was more than five yards

was usually high and had to be an acrobatic catch by as receivers. They scored one touchdown before garbage time that was a miracle fourth down that was deflected off Marlon Humphrey that shouldn't have been an interception. His whole game was checkdowns and screens.

Like, they have no offense. So I can't bet on a team that has a great defense as a big dog at home. And I'm afraid, even if the defense only gives up 20 points, they won't even get 10. That's fair. But this is easily the best defense,

Green Bay has faced this year. And it's the O&2 team. Like, that's the type of, of teams you like because it is such a desperate spot and they're going against the team that this will be Joe's first pros the public is going to be all over the

Green Bay team. I was literally at the hard rock this morning. This is 7 and a half in Jersey. So really the money has hit this Brown side. At least here in Jersey, you know, I'm with you. I just I view this

this Brown's team is just a dog that's always going to mean the fight. Like you said, And they're asking their 40-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco to throw the ball like 50 times. So I know you're saying he played really bad. It's like he is going to be deceased by week eight. I mean, he's just dropping back this much taking all these hits. He's literally throwback to the OGs who used to listen to behind the bets with Scooch

when we did it at ESPN. He's battered Flacco. Literally, battered Flacco. Yeah, show some respect. Like how bad, how long ago you were bad mouth of the man, he's still throwing touchdowns. I know. You're a joke, right? But yeah, it's a game where I'll end up on their browns, and I'm like you.

It's, I'm like dipping my toes in where it's like, I don't really want to be on this spot. And Green Bay is another side. I'm sure we're going to have in our money line round Robin where it's like, in what scenario does Green Bay lose? The only thing I can think of, the only angle I can look at again for this is Green Bay has a lot of injuries. and, you know, Washington was in a bad spot in a short week, and we'll see coming out of this extended rest, if Green Bay can get a little healthier, I'm back on that offensive line.

But if you're down guys in your offensive line, you're going against this Brown's defensive line, you're going to have a bad time. Like, let's be honest. So this is just one I'm going to keep eye on. But Chad's right here on Tuesday. If you want to grab an a half, I'm grabbing it just in case the pro money does come on.

But I'm shocked this number is. down to seven and a half just because I thought it was going to be all public all over the screen bay team. But yeah, the early, early professional money now has come in on this brown side. Which is not surprising. I would expect the early pro money. We saw it. It was at nine. It got down to eight and a half. You're saying you're saying Hard Rock is at seven and a half in New Jersey. I just, I worry about betting on a quarterback who cannot do anything more than a checkdown and whose coordinator and his coach don't seem to want to let him do anything more than a checkdown. Well, that was, that was against the Ravens and Kyle Hamilton.

I get what I know, I get what you're coming from. But if there's a team that you're taking the checkdown safe throws, but I completely understand your covering. They were checking down still when they're down 20. It was, I'm with you. Like that game was just, Stefansky doesn't trust him. The offense just doesn't trust it. But it's a different world going from that position to being the one they're going to

be in next week. So yeah, I understand. I'm not going to make us force the Browns in this week. I don't want to not do it. It's one of the games I 100% want to bet. I actually was hoping you would come in strong and say to me, come on, Chad. Get your head out of your ass. Not there yet. This is the game. Like, of course we're going to bet this game. It's a team with a great defense at home is a big dog off of a blowout. Nine times out of 10, we auto bet this. I wanted you to tell me that. I guess we're not there. Not yet.

Houston at Jacksonville. Jacksonville. This game was one and a half. It's down to one. In some places, it's down to a half. You know, I don't know, man. Poor Houston. They got Bakered.

They got Baker good last night. And that offensive line cannot keep the pressure off of C.J. Stroud. he is now going into a second straight season of just not looking very good once teams adjust to what they're doing after 15 scripted plays. So it's weird how ineffective they are. I don't know how to measure this. I don't know how to analyze this because he's supposed to be a great quarterback and they cannot execute. They cannot move the ball.

They cannot protect him. It's disappointing. it's moving in his direction. Is it because everyone thinks the Jags are so? What is it? Mismanaged. I've already lost the word that I'm looking for. Help me.

I would say they're a team that they traded up to the second pickover roll to a guy that isn't that good. That's how I'm going to sum up the Jags right now with their Travis on her move. All in. All in. Their GM came out. He was like,

we're going all in. This is how you make big moose. I know. He was so cocky, even though he did nothing. Yeah, this is every pro I know is going to be on Houston. And we talked last week,

they were lining up to get Houston in that spot. And they got Bakered, like you said. And I love that Baker showing out, right? Two weeks in a row, two comeback wins. That's great. I mean, that is shit we were taking for people being like, how are you guys going to put him in your top 10? This is why this is like he's got,

whatever that thing is that you can't measure, Baker's got it. It's crazy. Like those, both games left for dead and just rises up in the clutches moments, makes big time throws. I mean, yeah, just I couldn't believe. I thought he was going to be for sure knocked out of that game in the midway through the third quarter. And he's just so tough, Baker. So, yeah, back to Houston this spot.

It's going to be a trend spot for, I think, 80% of guys who bet for a living. Okay. Oh, and two, Houston, against the spread straight up. on the road in a spot as a dog. I mean, there's still one and a half stuff there. Like Chad said, at Hard Rock, they've moved to one. So I would get the one and a half I can.

I know people hate betting one and a half. Fine. Throw them in your teaser, then get them up to seven and a half if you need to. But incredible, incredible spot for Houston facing a Jags team that, how is it not all burning down around them right now? That was,

it had to be the worst flight home this past week of any team. That must have been a pin drop. You couldn't hear anything on the plane. No one was talking. Just awful, awful vibes. And I don't know about you, but I never, not that I feel like I've ever, I've been too hard on Trevor Lawrence, but even in week one, I, I just watched him. I was just like, he just isn't good.

Like, he's just not good. He's not consistent. And he totally gave that game away. Like your defense gets three picks on a backup quarterback. You have to win that game. and just I just can't get over how bad it is for the Jaguar. So I feel lucky where Houston lost in the game, like we just both agree, they probably shouldn't have lost.

I mean, they just got really unlucky. And I expect the public to be on the Jaguars here. And maybe this number can go up a little bit. But as we see right now, Hard Rock, it's come down. So I like the one and a half on Houston, but it's another game where I think what you've said is true. that something's wrong with CJ in this offense right now. And it's a little scary stepping in on this team and believe in them.

But it's the numbers and the trends are going to point to this being a good spot. And I haven't had a pick. So it's like I have Houston as great as a better team. They're the dog. I'll take it. But there's a couple games this week that just make your stomach turn taking it because it's just like you said. We've watched them now for two weeks.

And it's like, man, I see how it's going sideways for Houston. but man, is this, is this a make or break spot for this team? And they have to be the more desperate one of the Jaguars. Yeah, the Jacks posted Liam Cohn's post-game speech. Which I thought was cool. Never saw that before. I thought it was great. Like you post the losing coaches speech and he talks about how they have to get better

and it's on all of them and they're going to look at the film. And I thought that was really interesting. It's funny to me that you say we haven't been hard on Trevor Lawrence. I feel like we've been dogging Trevor Lawrence for two years, saying he's inaccurate when he needs to be accurate. He has no touch inside the red zone. He's overrated. They shouldn't have paid him. He hasn't proven that he's worth the money they gave him in any respect.

And this was the perfect game. like he's becoming to me, he's becoming an impediment to that team. And I think it's going to be really frustrating because it doesn't look like he kind of is the one who can take them to the next level because they should have a deep receiver room. Like it should be an offensive juggernaut. So I don't know. He had three touchdowns in the first half.

And then in the second half, he had multiple interceptions. and was inaccurate. Yeah, and they were 1470. He could have put them up 2170 through a pick in the end zone. But I just went to masses. Like, there's still people out there that talk and put them in their top 10 list than they do in the off season. There's still shows out there that I believe them. I mean, not to say you believe them, but you did pick them to win this division.

And I get it was because of the number, but it's like, there's still some, a little bit in the back of our minds where I told you after last year he burned me so bad. I was just like, I'm going to just be patient and let me see it. first and then I'll invest money in Trevor Lawrence. And man, it's, it just will not make sense. His talent, his body frame, his belt, his arm talent, all of it. It's just crazy. Yeah, exactly. It's just crazy. He doesn't have the mindset for it. All in the head. At this point, it's all in the head, right? Because we, why does Baker Mayfield, who doesn't have any of the natural gift that Trevor Lawrence.

He got the arm. Let me finish. Let me finish. He's not as tall. Like, his dwelling motion isn't as good. But the guy can ball and his players love him and he's top 10. Trevor Lawrence is not. No.

All right. The backup quarterback bowl, Cincinnati and Minnesota. The line has come down tremendously. Now that we know it's Carson Wants versus Jake Browning. Weird game. no feel. I kind of want to see what's going to happen with a lot of the people

who have been injured from Minnesota because it's obviously been an issue, whether it's Ryan Kelly, who's now out with a concussion, who left the game with a concussion. Christian Derisaw, the left tackle who didn't play, was his status, Andrew Van Ginkle. They lost Aaron Jones to a hamstring,

Harrison Smith, Jonathan Grenard, like all these guys either didn't play last week or left the game last week. Now you got Carson Wentz. I'd lean Bengals here before I would bet on the Vikings. I don't want to play it, but I have more faith in Jake Browning than I do in Carson Wentz.

Oh my God. The man threw three picks last week. I get it. I mean, he gets a good ticket. So that's why you're probably just like happy about it. But that's one of those monies you should donate after winning that bet on that Bengals team. Because it was a win. Do I have to, like, when I lose games like that,

is someone going to give me money because it felt so bad for me? Why would it feel bad? You just laugh. Doesn't ever feel bad. He just laugh how stupid it was. But I live for this. You're getting Carson Wentz and I spot that, you know, isn't this for his life? Like, so I love it.

Like, he's either going to throw what Brownie do. He's going to throw three picks and just be a train wreck or I think he could be really solid in this offense. When you look at the tape of this Vikings, team, even when they have guys, like you said, they have injuries to their defense. That is an issue. But I think if people get cleared, this could easily get up to three and a half. And it's just about the talent level of this Vikings team. And JJ McCarthy, I'm sure people look at the passing charts.

He simply can only throw to one side of the field. So I think it's in a real injury. But I get why people are like, even if this is maybe a one-week, week thing. They might have them out for two to three weeks. And I don't know. I can't believe it's just crazy where they led Sam Darnal walk and you might have a quarterback that can only throw to one side of the field. And that's what's so terrifying about drafting these rookies, putting them out there. And I mean, it was one week of tape and the defense already looked like it figured out J.C. McCarthy. So it's pretty terrifying. Where the last year, Sam Darno, I think,

had five touchdowns for the Vikings against Atlanta. And J.J. I think got sacked like six times and was just an absolutely train wreck. So yeah, tough time being a GM right now for the Vikings. And this game right here, like you just said, I'm happy to stay away from where you are, but I'll take the three for now just because it's, the Vikings are a better team. We'll see about whence.

We know it's just you don't know what you're getting. So there's like no chance this would be in our country. He's even at two and a half. I don't even know if I can convince myself, let alone chat, the force of the Vikings in a two and a half. So I'm with you. It's the backup bowl. This is why we protect the quarterbacks for exactly because of a game like this,

where it's like just protect the quarterbacks at all cost. It's just week three, when are we down five starter, six, six QBs? So yeah, it's an ugly one for sure. And I know. Usually I take the dog in the spot, but at the three, I'll take, I'll take the Vikings. Atlanta, at Carolina, this one popped. When we talked about it on Sunday night, we said we're not going to be fooled by Bryce Young's

come back in the final five minutes of the games when he looked exactly like Bryce Young from last year when they went seven and two against the spread and won four of those games outright and that was before the Atlanta game against the Vikings when their defense looked really good against J.J. McCarthy. But since then, this line has popped. It was around three, three and a half.

It's gone up to five and a half. mainly because the Panthers lost Austin Corbent and Robert Hunt, their center and their right guard that were put on IR from an offensive line that was already having a really hard time predicting Bryce Young. I don't have an opinion on the game at five and a half just because I feel like I liked Atlanta and we've now lost the best of the number. Do you have thoughts here? Yeah, we'll put them in our money line around Robin, but I'm with you.

The best of the number is gone and they're going to force me like last week. I mean, the Panthers got up to seven last week of Arizona. If this gets up to seven, they're a plus seven home dog or six and a half. I'll have to do it. But like I said, I'm not punishing people on the show anymore with the Panthers. I'm not going to make them take it.

And it'll be my own suffering if I do. But yeah, we'll real happily put the Atlanta in our money line run Robbins. It's a good spot for them. And the Panthers pull off the upset. Good. Hopefully a couple people threw the Falcons in their survivor pool. But yeah, I just,

we can't give us a lot. on the show. It's so funny. We are so either skittish or more disciplined about these dogs at home and the big dogs and betting on quarterbacks that we don't trust. Things are different in the NFL. They just are. And so we can't, like I said, we've got to evolve.

With bi-weeks, in bi-weeks, in a game like this, we probably had to force this one in. But, like, we're blessed right now. We got the full slate. We don't need to make these horrible suffering decisions yet. That's right. That's right. All right, quick note from our friends at Hard Rock. We are crazy excited to announce our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bed.

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Hard Rock Betts Online Casino if you were in New Jersey. Simon, I know you want to check that out from Here on out, you'll start to see us use hard rock bet lines when we're talking about the games. And everyone knows, Simon and I, we have loved getting out and doing live shows. Now we can actually do them from hard rock property. Simon, do we see a sharp or square live show from AC, just down the road from you in our future? As we gear up for NFL season, sign up for hard rock bet.

Make a $5 bet. You'll get $150 in bonus bets if you win. Head over to Hard Rock Bet, sign up, and make your first deposit today. These are payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida, offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. It must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois. Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play.

Terms and conditions apply, concerned about gambling. In Florida, call 1-888. Admit it in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help. Call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers, and guess what?

We have some big news. Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there.

But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down?

Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad,

Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed the game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.

That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial,

calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. SportsSlice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to SportsSlice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis. And I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs. And on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking.

breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris, every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay. Jenchen win. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lerner Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now, and I actually can win on any surface.

Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court-side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast on the Ombuds. IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Pittsburgh at New England. New England is a one and a half point favorite. We talked about this on Sunday.

I think we both thought this line would have moved a little bit. I think Aaron Rogers has looked pedestrian against a Jets defense we thought might be good, and a Seahawks defense that we know. no is good. His decision making is flawed. His reactions are slower. His lack of athleticism is being exposed. He's been sacked seven times in the first two games.

Straight facts. Here's the bigger problem with the Steelers right now, Simon. This defense that we love, that we think is amazing, allowed 100 yards rushing in seven of the past 11 games, including the first two this season. The Seahawks, by the way, had 38 in the first half and 79 in the second half. Same number of carries. Alex Highsmith left the game with a high ankle sprain.

They got much, much worse after that. You've been telling me, believe in Vrabel. Believe in Vrabel. It's time to believe in Vrabel. Do I believe in Vrable right now? I have not bet this. And all my systems, everything is telling me, Take the Patriots. Take the Patriots. I have not bet this yet.

Yeah, I wish you would have believed in them last week, Brable. But I don't know. I went back and watched that New England, Miami game, and New England might be really bad. Like they, you know, Christian Gonzalez is a huge deal. He's probably the best defender. And, you know, Tyreek, Waddle, there was multiple plays where they were shrieking wide open. If Tua just could put the ball in the spot, you know, Miami would have had a lot of, you know, better,

Miami would have probably won that game, honestly, really going through it. But, yeah, this honestly would be another time just honestly believe in and Brable because I know Patriot fans and Drake May treaters are like, you see how great he was against Miami? We talked about Miami's secondary. It was horrible. Drake May had a bunch of 50-50 balls that really worked out in his favor in that game, which at the end of the day, we'll take because we said Miami is a really bad secondary.

Jalen Ramsey has actually been pretty good for Pittsburgh, and their secondary is just deceased. They have nothing left in their secondary. And that's been the biggest issue, right? We did love their defense, and it was because they've been so good over the years, and they're the most expensive defense in all of football. Like, I joke before the season with you.

They're paying their defense. I think it was like $100 million more than the Eagles are in total for their own defense. And I think we'd both agree which defense we'd rather have right now. So Steelers, it's a game I want to dive more into. My view of this one is, do it, books, give us the two. Because right now it is a lot of Steelers money. So I'm happy to be patient. Looked at this one as maybe potential Simon says,

but after going back and watching the Miami tape, it's like, oh, my God, I can't believe how bad the secondary is. Because it's Gino Smith, Week 1, and we just saw Gino last night look like totally. lost against a banked up charges defense. So it's just, I'm going to have a little patience here with this one. Hopefully gets the two, two and a half, just like last week, right? They got the two and a half against Miami.

That, to me, is a more comfortable, better spot to be in where I still just have questions about this New England team. And I see what they're forming with the Ravel identity. And, you know, that him running all on the sideline with a kick return, like, oh, that's why we love Ravel and the players play for him. Man is We joke all the time about Tomlin, Tomlin spots.

I can't imagine this week of practice, right? How it's going to be for this team. So, yeah, we'll see, Chad. This one's based on the number. Be patient. If you like doing it, wait for the two. If you like Pittsburgh, I got no issue with you grabbing it now

in case it goes up. Are you ready for a trend? I know you love the trends. Love them. From our friends at Killer Sports. and this applies to a few teams this week. Okay? Teams that have failed to cover in the first two weeks in week three,

60% against the spread since 2010. That includes, by the way, the Miami Dolphins. It also includes the Pittsburgh Steelers and a few other teams that we're going to talk about today. Look, I think we need to be selective when it comes to trends. Like, you can't just back them again, like blindly. We will not do it with the dolphins. The Steelers could be more interesting, even though I don't want to play them.

But if you do bet trends, that's one where, like Chad just said, you take Miami, you take Houston, you take Pittsburgh here. Like, that's a timeless trend. I bet you're going back even further that would hold up in week three just because we talk all the time. The public go reacts, professional better to react. the number moves too much, you get value on the other side. So, yeah, that's a totally great trend to give out to start the week with.

Steelers, Chiefs, Saints, Bears, Broncos, Dolphins. O-and-2 against the spread. I like a lot of those teams. I do, too. So we're going to get to the games here. I'm excited. You said that. I'm going to assume that means you might like the Bears.

I'm excited to talk about that. Los Angeles Rams at the Philadelphia Eagles. Eagles three and a half point favorites right now. Look, this came up Sunday night on the show, a YouTube watcher, asked if we should be in the comments, should we be considering the Rams and the money line? Your first reaction was that you didn't hate it. The line has moved in the Rams direction.

It was four and a half and now it's three and a half. I have so many thoughts in this game. I need to get yours before I share mine. Because I feel like, I feel like, I'm just going to tell you right now, I really like the Eagles here, but tell me your thoughts. Yeah, I said grab the four and a half just because that was a good opening line. That was good value. I just stayed away from the money line here just because of the history of these two teams.

Some teams just have some team, other teams' numbers. And, you know, you dive into this Rams team. I believe their last 11 games, they've won nine. They're two losses. We're to this Eagles team. So some teams just match up well against you. And apparently that's what it is with this Eagles team. Rams, I believe last week, something crazy.

It was the most, it was the biggest blowout of the Stafford McVeigh dandum. Isn't that crazy? And it wasn't even that big. No. So it's been a weird, a weird case of, you know, these Rams just take care of business, beat these teams close. And the Eagles, this is. As an Eagles fan, this is like my, I don't know if this is peak right now of my family,

but this is as good as it gets this week. You got guys like Adam Schaeff, there, all these different, you know, sideline reporters coming on just saying it's not a football play. This is why the guy got rid of the tush push, and I am just loving it. It's the best as a fan where your team is so good at a QB sneak. People want it banned. They want it out of the game forever. and I love it.

This is an Eagles fan. This is peak, right? Two Super Bowls in seven years. Everyone just hates them. People say this is the most boring offense in all football. Who cares? No, it's a scourge to the sport. They forget this Eagles team last year scored the most points in NFL history in the playoffs.

This boring, horrible offense. I think of all the great offenses that ever played this sport. This Eagles team with this. boring push, running the ball, five yards, two yards at a time. Most points scored

in NFL history in the playoffs last year. So I love it. It's just a team that I talked about last year. The Eagles are chameleons. They will form to whatever other team is

and just suffocate them, whatever their weaknesses, whatever it takes to win the game, whether it just be the most boring, slow, bleed them out, type of style, or pushing the ball downfield if they need to.

So I like, this match before, I feel like the same reasons you do of this is peak overrated Rams team right now, it feels like, and a bad spot for those Rams team in the sense that I think we both agree. We have questions about that Houston team. We have major questions about Tennessee. That Eagles team, they showed me last week because I did in the back of mine, I did think that was a terrible spot for them going against that chiefs team where we know how desperate the chiefs were going to be and all the stuff that came along with it. If this is a late in the season, I'd be with you. I'd be way more confident on the Eagles here. At three and a half,

I'm not going to force it because I did see threes pop and then you quickly saw it go right to three and a half. So I have no bets on this other than my Rams four and a half ticket. But I think we're lined up. This is probably going to hit a point where this is going to be an Eagles value line. And I'll wait for that. But as we sit here right now, I'm tempted on it because I just, I see how much better this Eagles team is, but I'm not going to force it. I watch this Eagles team and feel like they're at the height of their powers. And this is a 100% perception versus reality game. Because I do think the Eagles can kind of do whatever they want at this point.

And I think they can play over the top if they have to. I think they can play physical if they have to. I think they can rush the passer if they want to. I think the Rams right now are getting a lot of credit for being really aggressive and having a defensive line that created a lot of pressure against a Texas team that we saw can't handle pressure and against the Titans team that we'll get into is actually the worst at handling pressure of any team in football right now. So like their QB pressure rate offensively defending against opponents is I think 31st or

32nd. Only worse than maybe only the Bengals are worse. And this is without being blitzed. So like that discrepancy is massive. So the Rams all of a sudden getting too much credit, here's my big fear. And it's why to me it's not a Chad loves love yet. Because this, this was like peak Chad loves love for me. I'm going to tell you. And I'm a little worried about the secondary against the Rams because Stafford and Puka and Devonta. they looked really good. Like that might be the strength of their team right now. Yeah, my biggest question, fear for the Eagles right now is the offensive coordinator is someone who's never done the job before.

And he sounds the part. He talks, good talk in his interviews. He's got all that down pat. But I have real questions about his offense, his scheme. It is very simple, but it's very simple and easy to read. and very basic. And I know it's early days here, right? So I get it.

They're not trying to put too much on Jalen's plate, but it's always a little nervous when it's someone's name that you don't know. They've never been in this position before. And they got it because he was very loyal to Sierra County. He's been with Sierra the whole way. He's been his guy. Hurts went to bad form, helped him get the job as well. But through two weeks, I think that's the only glaring weakness right now is Hertz

in learning this offensive system. And the second biggest one is what Chad just mentioned, the number two corner of this Eagles team. So things that the Rams team could exploit. Like this Rams team, they're a well-oiled machine. There's a reason I love them coming to the year if Stafford was healthy because I told you that Adams ad. Getting rid of Cooper Cup was a huge deal and replacing the guy like Adams who might be still the best route runner of all football. He's just so crisp, everything he does. And yeah, it's a crazy game to have at 1 o'clock.

I can't believe this is not the Sunday night game. Yeah, right? Yeah, it's a game. I'm sure we're going to talk more on Thursday. As you sit there right now, I think we're both lining up to be on this Eagle side. Yeah, definitely. Las Vegas at Washington, the games moved to three and a half from six and a half. Basically because there's Jaden Daniels intrigue.

We don't know if he's going to be playing or night. He's got an injured knee, had an MRI. So kind of a pass from me until we know what's happening. Okay. I'll probably be on the Raiders here. I'll take this early in line of three and a half. Just in the simple fact, it was everything went wrong, horrible game, obviously, short week flying out east. I just think everyone's going to be on Washington, whether it's Daniels or not.

So if it's Daniels, you know, I'll miss it. This number will go way up and I'll just avoid this game. If it's not, I can see the season again down at two and a half, three. Like it is all Daniels. Washington is nothing. without Daniels. That's not that talented of a defense. They're an older team.

And I don't think you're going to just have someone else step in and replace what Daniels does. So that Vegas team, they were good in that game, in my opinion. Like, it was just all Gino. Like, he just failed them in a million different ways. So another game I'm not going to force in because of how bad Gino played.

And he's another guy in a new offense with Chip Kelly that he was not throwing with confidence and had some horrible, horrible reads in that game against the Chargers. So it's a big difference going from the Chargers to Washington. We know that. So, yeah, it's another game where, like Chad said, we can be patient with it, see what the injury news is on Daniels. But really wish I gave it out Sunday night.

It was six. I looked at it when it was six. And I was like, man, I'm not going to just take this line just in case if the Raiders get rolled, this gets up to seven. I should have taken it. We should have known something was up with Daniels, and he looked banged up in that game. New York Jets at Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay is a seven point favorite. Again, the signals are screaming take the jets. You take a team that just got blown out. The number is going to be inflated. I think the number is up a tick or two because of what happened last night with Baker and their ability to come back and it's a second week in a row and people having faith in what Baker can do. We don't know the status of Justin Fier.

and whether or not he's going to be playing because he was being evaluated for a concussion. Honestly, Tyrat Taylor, in terms of game management and accuracy and short throws, which is what the Jets are relying on, he might be an upgrade. So I'm not saying we're taking the Jets here, but it scares me less than you think. I get as a Bears fan, you're a hated your ex-quarterback, but I actually have at least a point I believe in my model higher than Taylor. So Fields to me is it'd be great if he's in this, but this is really about the number once again.

I think, you know, I actually kind of lope the Jets on the spot. And I don't think you're going to hate it because they got burned from it last week, but you can't bet that way is it better. You kind of got to move on and burn it. You learn from it, right? That was a bad read, but I think we can all agree. That was a bad read because,

of all the things we've seen with fields, right? He just completely flaked out and was a zero in that game. And, yeah, major questions about this jet's defense. I'm starting, every day is this season goes long as I get more and more respect for Sala. And what looks like he might be a defensive genius, because this actually might be a horrible defense on the Jets. And he was the one that was so good and made them look so good. But the bucks have injuries.

Like, we saw how banged up that offensive line got in that game and how Baker was just getting crushed that whole game. and Baker might be banged up too. So grab the sevens as you can. I'd grab it right now. Simon says? Jets, yeah. No, is it as a Simon says?

No, we'll see. I have another game, I'm assuming we both like. And if you, there's two other games I really like, but I'm grabbing this one right now. I'm not going to make it Simon says because I do see this potentially growing. Like this could get up seven and a half, but even as six and a half people are going to hate it, I just, I don't know how.

we don't have this one in the contest. It's just going to... Listen. We'll see. I'm thrilled. Yeah. I'm thrilled. There's another games I know we're going to love, but like I just going to get over the fact that this number was this big.

And the bucks do roll teams. It does happen. But they usually play to their competition level and squeak by and pull out wins. Now you're added on top of that, them being banged up. And, you know, say what you want about. That's just defense. they do have a pretty good defense of line in some aspects. And if the middle of the line's banged up,

that's really where they can shine with Quinn Williams. So, yeah, I'm glad we're aligned on it. I was hoping because a couple seven and a half step up. It said seven at Hard Rock. I'm happy taking the seven. Just I was going to make it. Like I said, like I said, it came down from the seven and a half. So I'm not going to make it that.

I do love the seven. Do you think Todd Bowles let, Nick Chubb's score last night so he could get the ball back quicker or do you think that was just a defensive breakdown? If you look at the play, I've seen this online this morning. It looks like the Bucks basically just let him run right through them and it was especially weird since the Texans

had not been able to run the ball all night and all of a sudden there's a gaping hole and the guy can score a touchdown. I don't hate it. Yeah, I like the idea. And I agree with that during that game, I thought to myself, Nick Chubb looks like he has nothing left.

And then at one play, he breaks it for what was a 25, 21 yards. Yeah, I'm with you on that. And then it was brilliant because they had three timeouts, and they were either going to bleed their timeouts and they had to go run down the field, or they had to keep their timeouts and go score a touchdown. Like, I loved it. In the end, if that's what he did, total ninja.

Total, total ninja. Indianapolis at Tennessee. Tennessee is a three and a half point favorite. You called this one on Sunday night. You said take the Colts at plus three. I did. at minus three. I did take the Colts. Look, Indiana's Colts right now are probably the greatest offense in the history of the NFL. And I think we don't take into account the old sort of

tropes, division dog, plus three, at home. Like, I don't think these, those things are actually as relevant as they used to be. And to me, this is really about the running game. Like Jonathan Taylor has been magnificent for this team, both out of the backfield catching the ball and running the ball. The Titans are allowing a league worst 5.4 yards per carry in the first two weeks. On defense, on offense, I mentioned, their QB pressure rate is second highest while the opponents are blitzing.

At such a low rate, it's only 23rd. against them in the NFL. So the gap between the pressure and the blitz is massive. I feel good about the cults, even at minus three and a half. I do too. My negative view of this one is going to be something we always fear of, which is a home, divisional dog that is surely, surely going to be getting less than 10% of the money and the bets.

this is going to be the biggest need of the books this week. And I have no doubt. This is such a public play. There's no doubt about it. We are leaning into... Totally torched by Dallas last week. And literally, they were the same thing, 90% of the money, 9% of the bets.

And I didn't mind it because Dallas was at home. And even though we were deader than dead, there were still a little glimmer at that overtime. We could have got to that number. But here, I'm with you. I couldn't believe the number on Sunday night. I could not believe they hung a three. And I said that I was like, I'm taking this now because there's only one way this is going to go.

There's no way this gets the two and a half. If we got the two and a half, the alarms would be going off all over the place that this was a really bad spots for the Colt team. So trying to find angles for this Titans team. Colt's secondary is banged up. Can Daniel Jones keep playing at this pace? The man is not punted, right? They've not punted this year. I don't think they have.

I just, I can't get over how well he played, even going back and watching it and how well they ran the ball against that Broncos defense, which we said that we're going to take a step down that Broncos defense, but that's still a really good defense. So another only, all the angles I got to attack really,

Chad is like, okay, you have a Colts team that actually plays fast now, coming outdoors, playing on grass, and you know, a Tennessee team that is just left for dead by everybody, including me and Chad, who loved them just a week ago. So just going to give us pause here, but I hate it. I think we both want to be on the Colts, but I just,

I got to take a step back on this one. We'll talk about on Thursday, but I know, I know this is going to be the biggest need for the book. I just can't, I don't know who's betting, I don't know who's betting Tennessee at this number. Like we said, the Colts, I feel like I've earned their respect to be at this number to be up to six or five on the road in this divisional game.

They just, they feel like that much better at a team. And like you said, the coach, of Tennessee and the stuff they do. It's just so bad. So, yeah, I'll be patient here. People can tell them, a little spooked on this one, even though I loved it on Sunday. I can't believe that this hasn't gone up to five, six.

Well, look, you love the number on Sunday. Yeah. When I did the research yesterday, I was really concerned at how much I loved the game. It's a great matcher for the Colts. Nearly made it a Chad Love's Love. Nearly. And like, it just felt, no, that's,

it's so chalky. You're setting yourself up to be disappointed. You're going to look like an idiot. You can't handle that. It will make your Sunday miserable. I've already bettered at three. I'm not walking away from that. No.

But geez, Louise, man, that just feels we'd be walking into it. We'd be walking into, as we used to like to say, Oh, Hornets Nestle. I know. And I can already see the future where it's like, we have one spot open and we're just like, Let's just throw it like Colston. You know what it is? We're going to get lazy.

It's going to be like parenting. My wife and I agree with. It's like we said, we said something like you feel easier with the losses, right? What would you feel easier losing this bed? Or are we taking the Giants at home against the Chiefs? You know what I mean? So it's, it's tough. Or by the way, New Orleans plus seven and a half on the road at Seattle.

This is one of those games. I talked about that stat earlier. O and two against the spread. And the perception is going to be that you want to back off when it comes to the Saints. Meanwhile, the Seahawks really played well and hard against the Niners in week one, lost in the final moments of the game. Then they went out and dominated the Steelers and made the Steelers look really bad. So is the Seahawks defense great?

I do think it's great. They have not played a defense. The Saints have not played a defense as good as the Seahawks yet. the highest QB pressure rate and the second lowest blitz percentage. So they are getting pressure with their front four, just rushing four. Saints are keeping themselves alive in these games, though. And granted, they've been at home, but still, like, they're making it hard. This feels so much more trappy than the Colts.

It feels greedy to be betting on the Seahawks at minus seven and a half. Give me your take. Are we being courageous? Do we love the Saints here? I feel like you're going to tell me this is Simon says. Oh, on the Saints? Yeah. No, thank God not.

Okay, good. Almost every pro I've talked to, I think, is in alignment with you in this exact spot on the Saints team. And I think the Saints are in that description of the O and 2 against the spread, right? They are. Totally. So, you know, they fit the trends. my model has said six. So like I should be on the Saints team.

But what you just said terrifies me. How do the Saints move the ball and score against the Seahawks defense? And, you know, as much as we want to bad mouth Sam Darnold, you know, I feel like this is probably a good spot for him with his offense and the way they can run the ball against a Saints team that can't really stop the run. Let's be honest, we have two weeks now. And it looks like this is just a team that simply will struggle all season against the run. So I love the number. Like that's what sucks so much.

It's like, man, this is an incredible, incredible number. But I'll have to be patient. Like I already have seen it right now. I'm looking right now. There's books that have hit seven. So yeah, clearly, clearly the professional side is a saints. I need to just nut up and do it, I'm sure. but I just haven't bet it yet.

Like, there's other games I bet heavy this week, and this is not one of them. I've just been watching this and saying to myself, can this get to eight? Can I get to eight and a half? And now I'm looking, it's going to other way. So I might just have to take the seven and a half. I don't think it's going up because the Seahawks,

I don't think yet are sort of enough of a public team, right? And because if you look at the record, they're one-in-one. And some people are coming to this who are going to be betting on the weekend, they're going to see a Seahawks team that is one-in-one. they're not going to recognize that they beat the Steelers who are one now one in one. They lost to the Niners, who everyone thinks are great still. So they're not going to be a public side, like a heavy public side. This is a professional game.

Oh, yeah. And this is just like that Tennessee. This is going to be pros versus shows. We're going to end up betting saints. I don't know if it'll be in the contest, but it'll be. It's a tempting number, seven and a half. Seven and a half. All right.

The Broncos are one of those teams that fits that model of having yet to cover, and so the perception is a little bit off. I don't have a great read on this one. I think the Broncos defense might be overrated. They're getting a lot of pressure, but they're also blitzing 50% of the time. So I think the chargers are kind of good. And they backed it up last night after a week one against the Chiefs.

So two and a half is. a fishing number to me. I don't, I don't really want anything to do with this. Simon says giving me Denver. Love, love, love, love, love, love Denver in this spot. And I get the fear of what you're saying about this Chargers team. Like, they have looked really good. I mean, Herbert looks all world, looks incredibly talented. And dream, dream start for them, right? Two, two starts, one in Brazil, then in Vegas, in your division. You win them both. Now you're coming back home a chance to go three and a. in the division to start the season.

Chargers will win this game, but it won't be by more than two, Chad. This is such a number to play, such a spot to play in this Broncos team, who I was banging the drum to start the season. They were 8-0, or was a 9-0, 8-0, I'm pretty sure. Bo Nix last year as a favorite against the spread. He was perfect.

We'll see this year, Chad. O-N-2 as a favorite. So the public is totally, totally done with the Bronch. and this is exactly where I step in. Like this is my favorite bets where it's like you line it up last week, love the Colts and I knew no matter what the number was going to be on the Broncos, I was going to probably love them even better. Like I haven't modeled to pick them in the Chargers.

I do have the Broncos graded higher than this Chargers team because people aren't realizing this Chargers team is banged up. This is a Chargers team that, you know, they've lost key guys on offense of line. That's a big deal. And they've gotten away with it somehow because, you know, Herbert's so talented and horrible. Even their defense, I cannot get over how good their defense has played two weeks in. But you couldn't be in bigger of a letdown spot against a very desperate, angry Broncos team that's being undervalued by the general public right now. Like this people who had the Broncos is the best team as one of the best teams, I should say, the NFC.

That hasn't changed, right? They just, they haven't played well. They had a fluky loss last week and now the lines punt. for that. This probably should have been one, maybe a pick if they win. Instead, it's two and a half. And if you're lucky, you can find a three. But I think professionals are going have models like me and they're going to come in and hit this no matter what if it touches three. So no chance we get three and a half in contest. If we do, what a gift. That would be on this Broncos team against the Chargers that are just, I don't know which more who's more peaked out right now.

Them are Green Bay. It's close, though. I think it might be the Chargers. This is just an egregious line for a really tough divisional game. So, yeah, it's, it's shocking that you were into confident on this Bronco side. I thought you were going to be all in fading this Chargers team after last night. Well, look, I haven't had a chance to watch the game because I, you know, go to sleep at 9 o'clock. Yeah, it was late. And so it didn't start until 10. And this morning when I was rowing, I decided to watch the Browns because I was a little bit more intrigued and figured I could catch up.

on the Chargers. I was pretty disappointed in the Broncos. I've been disappointed in their defense. I'm disappointed in the underlying metrics I see. Yeah, their defense is good week, one. I know, but against the calls. Like, I just can't believe how much they have to blitz to get any kind of pressure.

That's fair. And so that is concerning to me. Well, there is one three out there. So you might, you could be patient if you want. I would just grab the two and a half now in case it comes down. I'll roll with you on it. If you feel that strongly about it, I'll go with it. It's on the general public, but if you want to bet it, I'm happy for you to get on the party.

It's a nice number in a nice spot. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, Nick? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast?

Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas? guys. I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it.

We were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering. that guys listen to hey jonas on the iheart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your

podcast just listen we don't care where you hear it another podcast from some s nl late night comedy guy not quite unhumor me with robert smigle and friends me and hilarious guests from bob odenkirk to davidler letterman help make you funnier this week my guest s n l's mikey day and head writer streeter sidel help an acapella band with their between songs banter where does your group perform we do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo.

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And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 and the TikTok podcast. network on TikTok. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris, every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay. Jen she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lina Rabakina is, I'm a good. you're really the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck.

Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. So maybe this next game, the Cowboys at the Bears, the line is one and a half. The first move was in the Cowboys direction. The Bears are favored by. by a one and a half. This is, you know, train wreck of expectations meets the mismanagement bowl, right? Like, Jadavian Clowny isn't coming in to save this Cowboys team. All I read about from the Bears is they're encouraged by Caleb Williams' progress. He made better plays. He got his feet set. He wasn't

is twitchy with his eyes, all these kinds of things, looking for anything to make them feel good in a blowout against the lions. The bears fit the model. You know what I mean? Like, they're the team that hasn't covered so much animosity and negativity against them. Yeah. It's, to me, you kind of have to back the bears if you're going to play this game. but a one and a half it feels sketchy like i'm not loving one and a half as a number lately

oh my god this is what simon says i left it for you so either one this simon says or denver simon says i love them both bear you like the bears yeah bears you have to bet this one if you're a fan of this show you got to do it like chad's so right it's all bad it's all negative right now after this bear's team felt like an incredible fluky loss week one and i do put the blame obviously on Caleb for these first two weeks in some aspects, but it's hard to blame really for that Lions game, but they just, they ran into a bus saw. Like, it just felt like everything was taken out on them from Detroit on defensive side and the offensive side. And Caleb is my only true hesitation here where it's like, if you, if Sunday morning

you're just like, I can't trust Caleb. I don't believe in them yet. I can see where you're coming from just because I, I've watched both games twice. both times it's like you see the raw talent but you see all the stupid shit he needs to just grow out of the holding on the ball for too long not making the read and just making the throw and trying to look for the other reads where it's like you don't have five six seconds back that I run around so um for Caleb's weaknesses Dallas to me can't exploit it they don't have guys on that front that really terrifying the pastoralist aspect so uh organizationally I feel like Chad should hope they go O for three because maybe they fire the general manager they just

gave an extension to food didn't deserve it in any way but uh just an incredible unique spot on a Bears team that Chad talked about it's like the O for two stuff all that is a big deal but it's also just public perception right the this number should be two and a half three bears honestly like I haven't modeled at two and a half personally think it should be three it's one live right now hard rock here in Jersey. So it's come down. It's minus one right now in the bear. So the public and the professionals might be lined up in the Cowboys.

And I honestly kind of love it. It's like I can't believe they're missing this one on this Bears team that I think will be able to move the ball offensively against obviously this Dallas defense. But defensively, I know you guys just lost your all pro corner, but you like to think there's a way they can scheme up. They can take away the passing game and try to make this Cowboys team just run the ball. Because we've seen it now. that's the only way to really shut down that offense.

And yeah, we've seen that this, you talked about, Chad, the 0 for two teams, 0 and 2 against the spread. The reason that 60% exists is just because football is such an incredibly desperate sport. And this to me is going to be such a hungry, desperate spot. Of any team I could think of, I think the Bears are number one where if they're 0 for 3, they know their season is officially over. and it's all come crashing down on them. So I love the Bears at this number.

I love the fact that I'm checking the charts right now. And that's what I love to this week. I'll be in the books talking different people. I keep a tally of these certain games. I can't imagine how many people are going to send out there on the Bears this week with us. So it's just another great spot, gross spot that our fans are going to hate, but you've got to bet it. You've got to take the Bears here.

You're not wrong about the Bears and the GM, Ryan Poles. I feel like he got an extension. because he won the press release. You know what I mean? Like any time there's like a move within corporate management, a press release goes out or a memo goes out. And we always used to do this idiotic pound. Like who won the memo?

Who like looks like they really got a lot of good stuff and are in a new position of power? He won the memo the last two years. Getting Caleb, getting Ben Johnson. The bears are so mismanaged. they're so incompetent and the ownership group is so bad, which now everybody is understanding because there's been so much reporting out there. Like, they gave that extension because they finally had someone within management getting good publicity who looked like he was doing the right

things. And it turns out it could be all the wrong things. We don't know this yet. Yeah. Certainly, he didn't deserve, he did not deserve yet the extension. We should have seen what actually happened with some of these assets. he's gone out and bought. And I think you know the part of he got that extension because he got incredibly lucky that Carolina took Bryce Young and not C.J. Stroud and totally nukes their picks that they'd give him back to him, right?

If they'd taken CJA, I could see, even if it wasn't that big of a difference, people think because how bad the Panthers are ran as an organization, they wouldn't have gave him the number one pick. I don't think he would have been the number one pick. Carolina would have gave that out. I think they would have finished probably five or six, whatever would have been.

But just this past year, I couldn't stomach the fact that you passed on Warren the tight end and took that guy, Cortland and Llellan. Colston, Colston, was it Lovelace? Lovelace. Love land. I don't know. Here's the point. Dude, it's like you just dipped into the Chicago Bears' friends chat

because we're all like, where is the tight end that everyone has been saying all training camps? is amazing. Yeah. And meanwhile, Ty Warren is looking like the kind of all-pro who just runs over people for the next 10 years. He's a stunt.

So I'm feeling Bears fans, but I know they don't want to hear it, but this is a great spot to back your team and bet on the Bears. So double misery if they lose, but I'm telling you, I love the Bears in this spot. Colston Loveland, by the way. There it is.

I'm getting so upset. I'm losing focus. Look. All right. You mentioned desperation. You mentioned a team that hasn't covered. We're going to get to that in one second. But first, let's talk about Arizona, San Francisco.

San Francisco is a short home favorite, one and a half. I think I lead Niners here because of the coaching advantage, some pretty major injuries in the card secondary. I think that maybe they are being, I think that Mac Jones could potentially be undervalued here. I don't have strong opinions yet on this one, but don't hate the Niners at minus one and a half. Yeah, no read on it. Haven't bet it.

You know, I honestly thought my model to have Arizona is the favorite here. It's right along with the books. I literally have the 49ers on minus one. So no edge, really no value to my model on this number. And I feel like I'm like you. And I'm trying to break this one down and try to find an edge. It's a lot of it honestly points to me liking the Cardinals and then being a little undervalue just because they didn't cover last week. And if they had maintained that blowout probably are the favorite in this spot.

And I feel like this number is shaded towards this 49ers team that, yeah, Mack Jones did step and make throws. But I don't know. That's Saints team, man. They just, there were so many times where they just had bad penalties or just gave the way to this 49ers team where Arizona, surprisingly he's been pretty well coach this year. But Chad said at the top, the secondary of this Cardinals team got ravaged by injuries at the end of that game. So another game I'm not going to rush into.

Tempted. Again, tempted because you can get Kyler right now plus 105 as a dog on the road. But I'll be patient, wait for the injury report and see what's what with this Arizona defense because I think we're on different sides. Like I get your love for the 49ers. I think they won big on the Mack Jones. we've seen that the backup quarterback, the one week he comes in and wins the next week. You don't want to bet on the backup to win two weeks in a rodeo.

It's an interesting spot where I can't believe I think Arizona is going to be three to know to start the season. But here we are. You mentioned desperation. You mentioned hungry. You mentioned a team that can't be 0 and 3. You mentioned a team that needs a win. I'll add for its lungs. I'm giving you a team that has not covered the spread, that the perception is way, way down.

I'm talking about the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the New York Football Giants. They are minus five and a half point favorites right now. Sunday night football. Simon Hunter, is this sharp? Is it square? Can the Chiefs be undervalued right now as favorites? Talk to me. The five and a half, got to listen on some days.

That was sharp because we talked about how that number, to me, just was not going to exist and that it was going to get bet up. I'm looking at Hard Rock right now in New Jersey chat. It is six. So the number has moved to six. There's one public book or two public books out there still at five and a half. Hopefully by the time you hear this, you can get it. Because I think you're leaning towards the chiefs here.

Simon? Chad loves love. Chad loves the Kansas City Chiefs. At five and a half, though. I would still play it at six. Like, because, you know, at five and a half, I'm winning at six. At six, I'm pushing. I think the Chiefs are primed to really pull off a mastermind trick here.

So I like the Chiefs at five and a half or six. Chad loves love. Chad loves the Chiefs. And you might get the five and a half again down the road if you're hearing this. and your book doesn't have anymore just because the professionals are going to keep coming out on this Giants team. They love them. They're their darling.

And this is obviously a chief spot we talked about winning and hopefully covering. But my God, if this is six and a half, which a couple of books have hit on this giant side. So this is a six and a half home dog in a Sunday night game that no one's going to be betting the Giants. everyone all public is going to be on the chiefs because they're like me and chat where it's like they're not going oh and three this chief's team is not going to oh three like this is we got a hard talk coming up about survivor and this might be one of them but yeah um I'm with chat like the five and a half that's like we said something that's great value like this should be six or six and a half so I would take the chiefs I know they have all these injuries and all that but

it's really really bent on just what we've seen within against bad teams, but also Spags in this defense against this giant's offense that looked like world beaters against Dallas, but you saw that they're really not right. It's all Russ thrown 50, 50 balls downfield and they were hitting against Dallas, like wide open hitting too. It's not going to be like that against the Spags defense. So I think we're in liming here, but just be careful out there. People, if you're only options of six and a half, I would not take the chiefs of mine

a six and a half. I've been burned so many times by Mahomes once he crosses that six number. So that to me, I'll try to find more trends on it. But it's a key number of the six. And I think here it matters because the books knew what they were doing. Like I said Sunday, I couldn't believe they hung to five and a half. Two books out there, even going live, one of the books just moved to six. There's one book left at five and a half. It's just a good number. I think we line up on the same side of the chief side, but it's unfortunate. It's probably going to be six and a half in our contest.

Yeah, I'm still seeing five and a half and six. So I don't feel bad saying that it's five and a half. I love it. I'm taking the five and a half Chad loves love. That's what I'm doing. I feel like I deserve it. Because it's available, because it's available in a lot of places. Last game, Detroit at Baltimore.

Baltimore has moved down from six to five and a half. It's the Monday night football game. Simon, do you agree with the move? Is it sharp or square to be taking the Lions right now, which is what the early move, the professional betters, have decided to do? It's obviously sharp side, this lion's side, because I did think it was going to go up right.

I think a couple of books opened at six. Yeah. Like you just said, now it's down to four and a half. Wicked number. Wicked, wicked number. Yeah. And I think this is really just because of this Ravens defense that you just said it, that Browns team was moving the ball.

It was really on Joe Flacko. And we talked last year, this Ravens team did struggle early in the year defensively. It took ore a little bit to get these guys right. And I think he's like my age. I think he's 34, 35. They're D.C., their coordinator, which again, doesn't matter. or age doesn't matter, but it still shows he's a little green behind the years. And it's like you've seen it a little bit here, two years in a row,

that the defense just comes out slow and they don't look great. And this Detroit team showed that they're still the same old offense, I suppose, Chad. So I don't know what to do because the line moves so much. Right. I did like the lines. I mean, Hard Rock right now, you can still get the five and a half here in Jersey. So it's like, I'll grab that number. But I'm shocked.

Shocked. It's moved. Oh, it's five now in Jersey, Detroit. I'm shocked to move so quickly to four and a half. So their respected money is coming to lines. And I'm looking at the splits right now, and it's all Ravens money. So, you know, that's pretty telling that the books have moved. Even though despite taking tons of tickets and tons of bets on this Raven side,

they've moved it, you know, a full point in a half now down from six to four and a half. So we might end up in the lines here. Like if this keeps me. Yeah, I'm going to be pretty enticed because four and a half, I'm taking the lines. I'll still grab it. But at one point, this is flipped to a Raymond's number because we know, if you're taking the four and a half, if you're taking the four and a half, then you're going to take the five and you're going to take the five and a half,

a lot of which is still available. Here's what's interesting about the Raven. So I gave the, at the beginning of the show, we'll take this full circle. I gave all the stats for the Brown. in that Ravens game. The flip side of that is that this game was 10-3 at halftime. The Ravens scored on a punt return that led to a short field and a field goal. They blocked a punt that led to a short field and a touchdown.

Interception led to a short field and a touchdown. Fumble return for a touchdown. Brown's scored on fourth down, end of the game. Don't make it short field and a touchdown for Baltimore. That's 31 points off of Browns and competence in a game that they won 41 to 17. So this defense has been middle of the road. When you look at the Lions, the Packers may be a great defense. We don't know yet, but we know that the Bears are amongst the league's worst defense.

So you're asking yourself, where are the Lions right now? I would expect a competitive matchup. I feel like five and a half is still too high. for this game. This was going to be my other Chad loves love, and I decided I need to go with the more desperate team. Yeah, no, I'm glad we're both lined up in the lines

because I could see the Ravens angle inside of it, but I do agree. If you dive more into that game, and I mean, I can't leave you went back and watch. I didn't even need to go back and watch it, but because I just, I mean, it was like, that's a painful watch, watching that Brown's second half against that Ravens team,

especially if you had money on them. But, yeah, I think we're both in alignment of, the offense, as great as it looked against the bills, they absolutely couldn't run the ball at all against Cleveland. They just moved to the past. And again, that's why Lamar is the early MVP right now. He just does it all. But, yeah, that's really about the number.

I think we're both in agreement that the lines, even if they're getting rolled, I still think they could find a way of the back door, keep it close. And I believe the last time they played, the Ravens went up, beat them by like 30, something crazy at home in this exact spot. So I'll dive more into the next. numbers of trends in this one. But as we're sitting here right now, I think we're in alignment that we both like the early line value, especially five and a half before it moves down to four and a half, which we both think that's the way it's going. All right. So let's recap a little bit because this is what we'll talk about on Thursday. We're definitely keeping a close eye on Cleveland at Green Bay at Cleveland. Cleveland's plus eight and a half right now. We're keeping an eye on the Steelers and the Patriots. Definitely keeping a close eye on the Eagles. keeping a close eye on the Jets, the Colts.

Are we keeping an eye on the Saints? Do we feel like the Saints will? Nada. We're keeping an eye on the Saints. Simon says is Denver plus two and a half. Simon also loves the Bears minus one and a half. Kansas City, it's at five and a half or six. That's Chad loves love.

And we're keeping an eye on Detroit plus five and a half. I covered it all. On Thursday, we'll narrow it down. We'll recap where we think we're landing for our final five as a preview for Sunday. We'll get into Survivor. We'll get into Brass Balls. We will get into rocking a hard place,

hard rock bed of the week. We will get into our money line favorite round rob, in our money line underdog, Ron Robin, Sharp versus Square, all that good stuff. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday. Ooh, man, it's gonna be an exciting Thursday. or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square, like this video, subscribe to the channel.

Also, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your Paws, rate, review, subscribe, move us five stars, say whatever you want. Listen, I know I've been saying this, but we want to get a huge, huge, huge amount of five-star reviews and comments before we start reading the comments back. Best and funniest in the spirit of the show, you know what to say. Swag will come your way. I just did that. Right here. Until next time. Love you.

Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite.

Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app.

podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Winning on Clay is an art. The rallies are relentless. And at the French Open, only the toughest survive. I'd know. I competed there for decades. Join me, Renee Stubbs, on the Renee Stubbs' tennis podcast for no-nonsense breakdowns of the biggest matches,

the toughest players, and the moments that define Roland Garris. She's an outsider to win the French fame. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lina Rubakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface. Listen to the Renee Stubb's tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart women's sports. I'm Michelle McPhee, and I've been unraveling the strangest criminal alliance I've ever reported on, a Mormon polygamist and an Armenian businessman.

Multi-million dollar house, Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, a billion dollar fraud. But how long can this alliance last? Tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me? Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.