The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL Week 3 Bets: Ravens-Chiefs, Packers-Cowboys, Eagles-Bucs, Chargers-Giants and more

Episode Date: September 23, 2025

NFL betting expert Chad Millman and his best friend professional sports bettor Simon Hunter return for NFL Week 4, as the Ravens visit the Kansas City Chiefs, the Packers head to the Dallas Cowboys, a...nd the NFL delivers another early season Monday Night Football doubleheader. Together Chad and Simon discuss their opinions on every single game on the board, starting with Thursday Night Football and an early morning kickoff live from Dublin, plus we get a special Simon Says pick, Chad's top early selection, and a QB change announcement in the Big Apple for the New York Giants. #Volume All lines presented by Hard Rock Bet 0:06:00 - Seahawks-Cardinals 0:09:00 - Vikings-Steelers 0:14:00 - Chargers-Giants 0:20:00 - Panthers-Patriots 0:30:00 - Eagles-Bucs  0:35:00 - Commanders-Falcons 0:40:00 - Browns-Lions  0:46:00 - Titans-Texans 0:50:00 - Saints-Bills 0:55:00 - Colts-Rams 1:02:00 - Jags-49ers  1:11:00 - Ravens-Chiefs 1:17:00 - Bears-Raiders 1:21:00 - Packers-Cowboys 1:25:00 - Jets-Dolphins 1:37:00 - Bengals-Broncos  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.
Starting point is 00:00:12 We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.
Starting point is 00:00:26 Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm CJ Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was harmed. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis keep coming to. He's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the I Heart
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Starting point is 00:01:23 Don't quit. Body by Jake Radio, where hope meets momentum. Search Body by Jake Radio and stream it for, Free. Have a great day. I heart radio. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man.
Starting point is 00:01:46 Is everyone lying to me about who they are? I felt such desperation. I felt it was what I had to do. Listen to deep cover the family man on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get. your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the volume podcast network.
Starting point is 00:02:12 This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys. Pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Dad. It's always funny going back.
Starting point is 00:02:35 watching our Sunday show because I honestly don't remember it. It's always a fever dream where I'm like basically just going through the motions. I'm just exhausted chewed up at that point and I want to apologize everyone. I should have been more excited about our block kicks. I just think it's a professional better. I'm excited at the moment, but I'm also like, I don't know if people saw the clip of hurts when they blocked the kick and took it back for the touchdown. I thought a little bit like that, a little bit of like a psycho killer. So I do want to say I was very excited about our wins, three and two. I love it every week. You just have to understand. I'm literally, I'm just holding on. I'm just holding on. I'm trying not to say anything crazy on the Sunday night show. My mind is all
Starting point is 00:03:12 over the place. And if it didn't come off, that was very excited. I am. Anytime me and Chad can win, especially a gross week like last week. And we survive our survivor pool. I am on the inside elated. I just need 24 hours of sleep before I can really express it. It's so funny that you bring that up. You and I haven't discussed that. But I got on. on that show and I was like overwhelmed with joy. You're a normal human. Yeah. And like I was actually surprised and I thought to myself, man,
Starting point is 00:03:44 he's really taken this sort of even keel, professional better. I asked you like on the show, I texted you, can you believe what's happening and you just texted back football? I stand by that. I stand by that. I know, but your lack of enthusiasm was marked. We haven't talked about it. I'm glad you're.
Starting point is 00:04:02 No, fantastic. If I was all right. And I was like, yeah, I'm not dead inside. I just, it's just a hard job. I know it's people think, you know, it's easy at some points of your life. But, yeah, the stress of trying to get the picks right, not sleeping. And then it comes through. I'm just, yeah, or something's show, I'm just literally trying to hold it together and go through the games.
Starting point is 00:04:24 And that's why I think people enjoy the show. It's like you just see two guys either happy or both just equally dead inside talking about their picks. Well, what's funny is I want people to picture this when they think about the Sunday night show. You're miserable, haven't slept in 36 hours. I walk up to my third floor where my office and slash studio is to do the show. And by that time, you know, on the East Coast in the fall, it's dark. And I turn on the lights. And that walk, it feels like the longest walk in the world coming up to the third floor to do.
Starting point is 00:05:01 that show on Sunday nights. So in that respect, I completely feel your pain. It's hard to be enthusiastic at the end of that day, but we're going to do it for the listeners. We're going to do it for the viewers. We're going to do it for the people that are riding with us. I hope they rode with us on the Chiefs minus five and a half. I was all in. You were semi in. I hope they rode with us on the Lions at plus five and a half early in the week last week. I was all in. You were semi in. I know confident. You were definitely the way more confident on the line side.
Starting point is 00:05:37 I was like, I'll do because I'm just a rating's defense, but I still don't know about that offensive line, and I think we got our answer, which side has more problems right now. The lines, offensive line, doesn't look. Well, that's what we're going to get to, right? We're going to dig in on all that today.
Starting point is 00:05:51 Listen, I've gotten a lot of questions, all fair and appropriate about how are we tracking our record, where are we telling people? The Tuesday show is where we will give people the final, results from Sunday and from the weekend because sometimes we have the Sunday night, Monday night games. And then we will also reveal how we are doing on the season. So for official record keeping, we went three and two over the weekend. For the season, we are now nine and six. You should be seeing, if you're watching on YouTube, should be seeing a graphic up there.
Starting point is 00:06:22 Totally fair to be asking. It'll be cleaner in the future too, right? We both agree. We'll have something better in the future. We're just. We're transitioning. Yeah, we're transitioning. Yeah, we're We're doing the best we can. We're doing the best we can. We want something better in the future as well for tracking our picks. And we will have that figured out most likely to go forward. We used to have accounts at another company and they disabled them. So we can't use them.
Starting point is 00:06:45 It's tough on both sides. Listen, that's where and then we'll do our final picks here on Sunday mornings. You got to listen and watch. We'll flash the graphics every Tuesday. We got a lot to get to today, including the end of the show, the long promised winner of our reader comment. contest, the winner will get some amazing swag. Listen, we're gonna figure out what the swag is. We barely know where the Slack channel is at this point.
Starting point is 00:07:09 This is our Tuesday show. We're gonna review the entire slate. Interesting lines, Simon. As exciting as the games were over the weekend, we still had eight games decided by double digits. More than three of those were decided by 30 plus points. So we're gonna see some inflated lines, right? And we're gonna see some teams that are truly terrible,
Starting point is 00:07:31 and potentially no inflation is enough. And I think we both changed our tune on when, you know, it's not quite as obvious as it used to be to back the big dogs. Don't forget, get the show at Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe and like the video while you are at it. You can subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple Potts, Spotify, wherever you get your pots.
Starting point is 00:07:52 Thursday night football. Seattle at Arizona. Arizona is a one and a half point favorite at Hard Rockbet. Simon, I immediately flagged this as a game. I was interested on Sunday night, liking the Cardinals. That was before the James Connor news. That feels like a sharp play to back the Cardinals, but I haven't bet it.
Starting point is 00:08:18 I'm keeping my powder dry. I don't feel strongly about it. Yeah, interesting number. I honestly thought they would make the Seahawks a favorite just because coming off a huge win, like we say, public perception. and that's where the money's going to go. So I'm the line I'm not rushing a bet, but I am just as you.
Starting point is 00:08:36 I'm on the Cardinal's side. Thursdays have been good to us. I think we're three and no this season. Even though we haven't played in the contest. We played a Friday. We played the Chargers in a Friday game. Yeah. But no Thursdays.
Starting point is 00:08:46 But they've been hitting for us. And this just feels like last week, another easy spot where it's like the home favorite, getting less than a field goal on a short week. and, you know, the biggest concern is the Cardinal secondary, right? They're really banged up. Can Sam Donald take advantage of that? We'll see. I've seen this matchup.
Starting point is 00:09:08 So, honestly, we want to flip. Kyler is a dog. I think he's like one of the best guys. Yeah, that's kind of what I'm waiting for. Right. So that's where I'm at where I'm like trying to be patient. A lot of these numbers, like we talked on Sunday, they're so close like that Vegas, Chicago 9 that they can flip.
Starting point is 00:09:25 It all depends on what books are shopping at. So be patient to even get a plus one and a half. Maybe we'll touch again on this one on Thursday, but I just don't think anything will change. Me and Chad, we'll be on the Cardinals most likely. And if it doesn't flip, I'm stuck taking the one minus one and a half. I'll take it on the Cardinals. But yeah, not one of my more confident bets this week.
Starting point is 00:09:45 I don't know why it hasn't flipped yet. That's what's confusing to me, especially with Connor being out, especially with the Seahawks doing what they did. There's a bunch of half points, Chad, and there's a pick out there, it will flip. Okay. Like, there's already, if they're, if they're already moving to half a point,
Starting point is 00:10:02 which is such a dumb thing, um, they'll flip. So yeah, I'm in with you. Every, every, every, every, every book right now is, oh, one book did flip. So a four-lettered word, your ex-employee from back in the day, they're the only book right now that has card. Interesting. As a dog. That's, that's, that's, that's, uh, be patient.
Starting point is 00:10:23 So we're already seeing like here we are very early Tuesday morning. They've already flipped that one book. Yeah. I think you have the right rate here. Just wait. Or you can go grab that plus one and a half right now if you get it in your state. So yeah, pretty interesting line movement. I think your early read was right that Cardinals is the right side, but be patient.
Starting point is 00:10:40 The Seahawks will flip this line. They just, they just had a blowout win. They're pretty healthy. Everyone's kind of in love with them. They're going to get the majority of the money in this matchup. They're going to get got. Yeah, most likely. It's never a good spot early in the season here where you have huge wins.
Starting point is 00:10:55 and you have a short week playing against a team that just lost in a divisional game. Yeah, it tends to be historically a bad spot. So I'll look at the trends and stuff, but I'm almost positive they're going to back the Cardinals here in this number in this spot. Simon, can I wish you a top of the morning? Because we're going to Dublin
Starting point is 00:11:14 and the Minnesota Vikings are playing the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Pittsburgh Steelers are two and a half point underdogs. The games at 9.30 Eastern, you're going to have to get up a little. a little bit early to watch that game. Wacky, wacky line movement on this one because the Steelers were actually a point and a half favorites heading into the games on Sunday.
Starting point is 00:11:36 And then, you know, because of what the Vikings did against the Bengals, and I think a little bit about what the Steelers did against the Patriots, the line has moved a full four points since the end of both of those games. You know, I get it. I get the move like the Steelers have not been impressive to me at all. They needed to bring blitzes to get pressure against the Patriots on Sunday when they've
Starting point is 00:12:09 spent about $100 million on defensive specialists who are designed, who are supposed to be getting pressure without needing to bring the blitz. Aaron Rogers still looks pretty mediocre and pedestrian. They kind of won that game because the Patriots literally handed it to it to it. him but am i buying carson wince is that a is that a sharp idea simon to buy carson wence that would be the square idea right yeah i'm killing myself because we joked on son i bet it because i thought this was in pittsburgh and uh this line makes total sense being in dublin the steelers have been outplayed in all through their games should be oh and three you know why
Starting point is 00:12:45 they're not shed that tomlin magic the man does it every year and every year people have this same conversation you're having right now is they've been outplayed they've been outplayed they've done this, they've done that, they're not that good, and they will be 9 and 8, and it will not make sense to anybody. I don't really need validation. I just think it's difficult to box without sparring, sharpen our sword for the battle. But this is like the first year I could say that people will have their doubts because there's so much to point at.
Starting point is 00:13:12 Like how can this luck continue? Like you said, their defense is bad. Like Aaron Rogers, you can just look at the numbers in the metric. You don't even need to watch the tape. There are so many ways to attack him now with all of his glare and weaknesses. There's so many things he cannot do. And their offensive line has major problems. So Pittsburgh here at this number, I think it's honestly right.
Starting point is 00:13:35 Like I honestly didn't get it because I thought they were at home. But in Dublin, the Vikings are a better team right now. And health-wise, they're healthier. But you are a fool if you are taking Wentz here with this number. Like they're hard rock. I'm looking at it live here in Jersey. They just hit the plus three minus 115 on the Steelers. So that's it's all Vikings money professionally really here.
Starting point is 00:13:58 So, you know, that could be the right read because it's such a random game in Dublin. We've seen international games. The favorites cover. They win. Like that's usually the right play to make. But I can't get over it. Like plus three, chance of getting three and a half against Wentz. Won't put more than a buck on it, but I will no doubt end up on this Pittsburgh side.
Starting point is 00:14:20 And I said it last week. these backup quarterbacks. I think they went 0 and 2 the guys who made to start the week before. It's always different in the second week. Carson-Wensk might be able to get away with it because there's no real tape. Like they didn't really have to do anything, right? The Vikings' offense, they just Jordan Mason needed a death and had two pick sixes.
Starting point is 00:14:39 Like they just didn't need to show anything on tape with Wendz. So it's a good spot for the Vikings. So I get why the early money here is on them. And I'll just be another spot. I'll be patient, not going to force it. I'll take the plus three. and a half if it gets there on this Pittsburgh side. It's just a gross international game.
Starting point is 00:14:56 But I love, I love this for Tomlin. It's just this team is so Tomlin where they should be 0 and 3 and that you're somehow, like Chad said, 2 and 1 and it's the Pittsburgh magic. By the way, put some respect on Mack Jones's name because he did,
Starting point is 00:15:12 he did win last week, his second week as a starter as a backup, which I liked and you know, you walk me back because you don't believe in Mac the way I believe. Yeah, you didn't cover. In Big Mac.
Starting point is 00:15:25 I believe in Big Mac. Here's my question about the Steelers. Here's my question about the Steelers. When in the past, Tomlin Magic worked because their defense always found a way to strip sack, get the interception. They just did that last week. I know, but sometimes, like, their defense was better when they were doing it. To me, this felt like the Patriots handing into them, not so much the Steelers defense
Starting point is 00:15:52 making a play. Number one, maybe, look, maybe I'm picking nets here. You're tough, yeah, you're being a little tough. Number one, number two. We're on the same page as that, but this is what they do every year. It's bizarre, I know. I do wonder about Aaron Rogers, who's basically playing flatfooted against Brian Flores' defense, which is, you know, top 10 in pressure rate and blitz rate.
Starting point is 00:16:15 Yeah, no, that's what I mean. It's the early money here makes sense to be on the Vikings. I agree with that. I just can't get over back and went again in the spot. LA Chargers, the dominant LA Chargers, the Chargers who are breaking our hearts at the New York Football Giants, Giants are six point underdogs at home at Hard Rock Bet in New Jersey.
Starting point is 00:16:39 Look, the game opened five and a half. We're going to talk about, you know, what the sharp side is in a second. But my question is, I want you to answer these questions, four questions. I want you to answer them for me. Yes, no questions. Do we think Justin Herbert is better than Patrick Mahomes right now?
Starting point is 00:17:00 No. Do we think the Chargers receiving Corps is better than the Chiefs receiving Corps right now? Yes. Do we think the Chargers defense can be as effective as the Chief's defense right now? Yeah. Do we have the Chargers power rated ahead of the Chiefs right now? Of course. Of course. Yes.
Starting point is 00:17:24 So isn't it interesting that the Chargers are the same favorites in terms of point spread as the Chiefs were last week when the Chargers are clearly a better team than the Chiefs are right now, I'd be very curious to see where you have this power rated because it feels to me like the Chargers, you know, completely based on the ratings and what the Chiefs were last week and what the judges and what the Giants did should be a little bit bigger favorites to me. That's fair.
Starting point is 00:17:58 Yeah, I believe I had the Chiefs. I'd have to look. I almost positive I had it at 6 or 6.5. And that's why I said at 6 and a half you wanted to get Giants understood it. But we said all week, the 5 and a half was aside. And Chad knows me.
Starting point is 00:18:09 I was just terrified of Mahomes winning big. So I end up just really being heavy on the money line of the Chiefs there. This is different where this is Chargers versus a bad team. I have this at minus 7. this is the type of team they beat 20 to 7 or 20 to 3. Like this is totally Herbert might not have his best game.
Starting point is 00:18:29 You saw you can get pass rush against the Chargers right there. That was my whole thing liking Denver there. Like there was going to be ways to get after Herbert, which, you know, that final job we talked about. That was like, that's why everyone, all of us all hype them because. That's why for me, for me, he's a top 10 quarter. back. Yeah, but that's not even saying much. He's done anything. Congrats on having them in your top 10 for you. You don't have them in your top 10.
Starting point is 00:18:58 I've in my top 12. Oh, by the way, when I made the argument that Dak Prescott was in my top 12, you're like, come on. You didn't know. You gave out your top 12 and you had two ahead of Dak. I think you had Stafford at 11. Again, Chad, you don't want to bring up the QB Rankins. You were terrible at the QB Rankins. One year, you know, all I know is, all I know is I had Herbert in my top 10. Congrats and he still doesn't want anything. He doesn't matter. Chad's taking a victory lap. You can't argue against this.
Starting point is 00:19:25 Go ahead. Continue with your hand. What I argued against? I said he's been good in September. Top 10. The guys always doing his career in the playoffs. Chad's taking a victory lap. Top 10.
Starting point is 00:19:35 You also, Chad didn't have hurts in his top 10 last year. Great call, Chad. You're killing it. Keep it up. I had hurts this year in the top 10. Wow. Great call. You won the Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:19:43 Oh, don't get, don't get pissy with me. Continue with your analysis. it up please what you wanted you want to bring up q rinkins you're terrible at every year just yeah herbert's aside like i think our contest will be five and a half because that was the opening line i will be very tempted to put them in sunday it's just a good number in a team that should have lost last week huge win if you're trying to catch them here right because i think they're what three no a t s so historically probably a bad spot but it's just interesting where it's five and a half six against this Giants team, you know,
Starting point is 00:20:19 this should be a really good match for them. It's like they have a suffocating defense and an offense that can move the ball against this type of defense of the Giants have. So yeah, I think your early read is right. Probably should be seven. They're kind of giving their respect to the Chiefs because that was such a prime time area spot, I guess.
Starting point is 00:20:36 But early money, obviously, charges here. I'm like looking at the splits. It's same thing as the Chiefs. It's all Chargers money. So I think we're going to start. seen a pattern here of the pros, the sharps, they're going to like the giant side every week and the squares like we are. We will try to feed this giant side every week because we just, you just think they're bad. Isn't that weird? Like, why can people, why aren't people able to walk
Starting point is 00:20:59 away from the Giants? It's totally got Panthers vibes. And maybe by the second half of the year, that's when the tide will turn a little bit and this defense will be a little bit better. And, you know, the offense maybe can be more effective, which is, what happened with the Panthers last year, but they're trash right now. And I do think with the Chargers, I think Jim Harbaugh mitigates a lot of the emotional swings that befall a lot of teams in this position. The way he manages his team, the way he coaches his team. He's so sharp with the rules. Like, there's not going to be something that they don't take advantage of that might wreck other teams that don't have him as a coach. I think he's just really good. Yeah, he's incredible.
Starting point is 00:21:50 Yeah. I love guys who like football. And guys who like football, they like me back. I like them back. Even guys that don't like football? I mean, they try to avoid me because I'm always trying to get them to like football more. I wanted to make this Chad loves. It scares me a little bit because it's so chalky. It is if you could be getting the best of the number where this could easily get up to seven by kick. I mean, like, that was the thing that was spooky about the Chiefs where it's like, I couldn't believe we were still getting the five and a half that Sunday night. And it's like, this is such a good number in a matchup they should win.
Starting point is 00:22:24 And you can't always be scared off, right? Chief's rule, but was it 22 to 9. And it's like, got to trust your gut. So that was, again, great call by you last week. If you wanted to your chargers, I'm not going to fight you off. I told you. If it's five and a half chat, I'll probably be with you on Sunday getting in our contest. I might want to come back to it.
Starting point is 00:22:39 I'm going to come back to it. All right. you helped talk me into that and it was one of like three or four that I'm debating. I didn't have a consensus yet. Carolina at New England, the line is five and a half right now. What's weird is that the line moved up,
Starting point is 00:22:55 four and a half to five and a half with the wise guys coming in on New England. Do you feel like that's the sharp side here? Definitely, definitely, though. You do? Because I couldn't believe this number. My model has this at four. but I'm not going to
Starting point is 00:23:12 I'm not going to get sucked in on this one because it is we want to back the Panthers that there just won 30 nothing against the Brable team that once again is very desperate in a corner and like you said had the worst turnover luck ever the prior week
Starting point is 00:23:26 I mean two red zone end zone turnovers just absolute killers but that's what it's going to be like with a young quarterback in Drake May and running backs that just have fumbling issues And, you know, the brutal part for the pitchers right now
Starting point is 00:23:42 was the kid they took Henderson, who was insane amount of talent. They can't get them on the field because you can't pass block. And that's always the scariest part with these teams taking these kids out of college because some of these kids are so good, they never had to pass block, right?
Starting point is 00:23:56 If they were on the field, they were getting the ball. And if a guy was blitzing, they would just flank him out of the backfield. They never had to hit the guy up the middle. So it's a little nerve-wracking. Like, I honestly wanted to be on the Panther. As soon as I saw this line, again, I didn't bet it.
Starting point is 00:24:10 I was like, that's a Panthers line. We got to do the Panthers. Like Chad said, it's moved up from four, four and a half to five and a half for a couple books. Yeah, Hard Rock, looking at it right now. It's up to five and a half. So it gets a six. I don't know. Maybe I won't be patient enough.
Starting point is 00:24:25 I have to take this Panthers team. But I can tell you the professional side is the Patriots. This is a Patriots line, Patriots number, but I just can't get over the fact that Panthers are undervalued. But, yeah, it's interesting. This number is this big because I don't know about you. I view these teams are the same. I think they're both, you know, bottom tier teams that any week can be good if they get the right QB play. But overall, they're just not trustworthy.
Starting point is 00:24:49 Yeah, I'm kind of surprised this line didn't open closer to three or three and a half, to be honest. It opened really big, which was surprising to me. And that's why the move was surprising to me that it went so heavy in the Patriots direction. And I don't know if it's people looking at this game as the Panthers were basically handed a game. and won and didn't really have to do anything outside of themselves to win it. All they had to do was not screw it up. And the Patriots, flip side, handed the game away. You just mentioned it.
Starting point is 00:25:21 They had a Drake May interception in the end zone when they were driving for a touchdown. They had a Ramandre Stevenson fumble as he was about to cross the goal line. Five overall turnovers. They didn't recover any of their fumbles. itself is sort of crazy crazy right like you can force fumbles and that as a skill but recovery of the fumbles is entirely luck they had two other turnovers that were in steelers territory including a drake may fumble when they were driving which led to the steelers game winning score so i can see why the number moved a little bit because but betters have to believe that the paths will just
Starting point is 00:26:05 be less unlucky and the panthers won't be as lucky but also awfully high for a quarterback and Drake May who we have refused to bet on because we just don't believe he can execute for a full 60 minutes. Yeah. There's a lot of fishy lines this week. This was one of them.
Starting point is 00:26:24 Fishing. It's fishy. Stink. Stinks. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news?
Starting point is 00:26:33 Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there.
Starting point is 00:26:46 But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this.
Starting point is 00:27:08 We were talking about a thing. a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, Hey Jonas, and then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up
Starting point is 00:27:17 as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.
Starting point is 00:27:27 We don't care where you hear it. Hey, I'm Joe Donno. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please!
Starting point is 00:27:36 But there's so much more to me than that. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. and recently I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, Hope I'm a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions.
Starting point is 00:27:53 Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary.
Starting point is 00:28:10 Oh, cream of chicken suit. Hey, cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrite as part of the Mike Cultura Podcast Network available on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The story I've told myself about love or relationships can then shape my behavior, and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast deeply well with Debbie Brown and explore the journey of healing, self-discovery, and returning to yourself. We explore higher consciousness, emotional well-being, and the practices that help you find
Starting point is 00:28:55 clarity, peace, and self-mastery in a world that can feel overwhelming. The world is becoming lonelier. We're not becoming more social and connected. We're becoming more individualized. but we actually meet people in connection. If you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole, this podcast is for you to hear more.
Starting point is 00:29:18 Listen to deeply well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHeart Podcast presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:33 This is my best friend, Janet. Hey. And we have been joined at the Hipsons High School. Absolutely. Now a redacted amount of years later. We're still joined at the hip. Just a little bit bigger hips, wider. This is a podcast.
Starting point is 00:29:45 We're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey. With all the snacks and drinks. Sidebar. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? Well, they had a bogo. Well, then you got it. Do you want a white collar or something here? Just hit it.
Starting point is 00:29:58 Oh, what are y'all doing? Microphones? Are you making a rap album? Oh, I would. Come on. Could you believe? I would buy it. Cut through the defense like a hot knife through sponge cake.
Starting point is 00:30:10 That sounds delicious. Oh, you're lucky I'm not a drug addict. You're lucky I'm not an alcoholic. You're lucky I'm not a killer. I love this team and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on. Oh. Listen to soccer moms on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Tampa Bay is a three point dog.
Starting point is 00:30:38 This one may be at three at Hard Rock, but it is three and a half in a lot of places and moving in the Eagles direction. And this one I want to ask you specifically about because you highlighted this on Sunday night. Before we even started talking about games, you were saying it was the weak to fade the Eagles. I bet the Bucks at plus three.
Starting point is 00:30:57 Why is this line moving? Is it the Eagles O line? The Bucs O line? Why is it going in the opposite direction? Yeah, I think it's injuries. And this is at Jersey Hard Rock is a three and a half now in Tampa. Okay.
Starting point is 00:31:09 Probably when you're hearing, this is going to be three and a half. I probably should do it. I'll make it Simon says. Give me Tampa three and a half. Wow. Call me Simon. What do you want?
Starting point is 00:31:19 I want to play a game. What kind of game? Simon says. This really is to me just based on injuries. We talk about the books, they've been lucky. They could easily be 0 and 3. They're 3 and 0.
Starting point is 00:31:33 And the bookmaker is no it's only going to go on for so long on the flip side this eagles team i think they've been very lucky they could easily be o and three so i have a very skewed view in this um tampa has always played the eagle as well just as an eagles fan it feels like every time we go down there we lose i have to look up because i don't know if that's true but it feels like for some reason every year we play them because every year we either win our division or we're just scheduled against them and we go down to tampa it's 110 degrees and we just get smoked i mean last year i can remember vividly uh we got embarrassed and they helped us though changed our entire offense because of them and um this
Starting point is 00:32:10 tampa team has major injuries to the offensive line they have injuries to the secondary it might be without mike evans that's why this number's going to keep moving like there's a couple games this this week that a lot of lines have moved because of injuries so i'm going to grab the three and a half just in case the professionals do come in and hit this back down to three which where i think even with all the injuries i think that's where it should be because the egos have their own injuries as well they might be down. They're already terrible number two and number three cornerbacks against an offense with Baker that, okay, you take out Mike Evans, there's going to be no Godwin. We saw him last year without Mike Evans and Godwin and just no names. And he won the division.
Starting point is 00:32:47 He pushed it downfield. Like there's just a bunch of ways this team in the bucks and attack you. And the Eagles right now, as great as they looked last week, we talked about it. There's so one of the things that went their way as unlucky as they were in the first half was very. lucky in the second half. So, champion team pedigree, all respect to the Eagles team. I do think they'll win this game somehow at the end. That's just what Hertz does. But now that we have the hook,
Starting point is 00:33:12 three and a half, I mean, this is another one on Sunday. It's going to be very, very tempted to put this in our contest. It's going to be all Eagles money, all the teasers, all the parlayers. The public is going to be all over this Eagles team. Because I don't know about you, Chad, and I'm not the biggest social media person. It felt like every sucker in the world was complaining
Starting point is 00:33:30 about their Rams bet that lost last week. and how is the worst beat of their lifetime. And it's like, they don't get it. They're just a cog in the machine. They probably have this every other week, worst better their lives, worst better of the year. So we're going to talk about the Rams getting coming up. No one's going to be on them,
Starting point is 00:33:46 but everyone that lost to this Eagles team is going to be on them, and they know the injury report of this Spooks team. So this is for sharp and square, the square side can be the Eagles. A very, very sharp side is going to be this Tampa team. But respect to the professionals, they've been taking the two and a half that was out there on this Eagles team.
Starting point is 00:34:02 team. They took it right away. Some of them were even taking the three. So yeah, three and a half, I feel like it is a really good number for us to be taking on the spot. Yeah, I actually like it at three and a half. And there are reports that Tristan Worf's, their left tackle could be back. There are reports, by the way, that Chris Godwin could be back. I know. And that's why we're grabbing out because like you just said, it could move. Totally could move. And by the way, thank God you're not spending too much time on social media. I feel like when I was at ESPN, So much of my job had to be policing talent who would get angry at people who said things to them
Starting point is 00:34:43 on social media and then have to tell them why they can't do that. I feel like I would spend all my time telling you why you can't do that on social media. Well, now you can't see people's likes. So anytime a hater says anything to you and I do see, I give it a like. Because I just think it's all kind of funny where it's like, you know, again, before the games are. over people tell you how stupid your picks are and then they win and they just either don't need comment or they block you and it's like okay guy uh Washington at Atlanta so on Sunday night
Starting point is 00:35:12 this was the first bet I made I took the Falcons plus three Simon if we're talking sharp or swear this was a sharp move because it's down to two and a half I don't know if I like it as much at two and a half no I would say if you had confident at three still be confident two and a half but um i told you i don't i don't know where to go with this one i needed more time to watch the pennix film terrible wish i didn't watch it i feel like if i didn't watch it i would go over this number but um my view was i didn't want to make a move on it because i need to know what what the health is with jane daniels and um to me your early reader was right right of the the Washington blowout now on the road against an alana team that say what you want about
Starting point is 00:35:56 Pennix, he's actually played well at home. And again, extremely small sample size. But I just, even when we talked on it, I was like, there's no way I'm going to end up having this one be one of our fives. Unless Atlanta got up to five or six in our contest where Daniels got it got cleared and just people extremely overvalued Washington, this feels like a Daniels is going to play number. Right. Yeah. And most of the reports are that he will and Ian Rappaport, you know, even even said that it was likely on Sunday that he would play the following week. So I don't think if anything here is changing. I think it's going to end up being at two and a half. You're right about Pennix. Like there was zero to like about that game against the Panthers. Like they
Starting point is 00:36:45 couldn't convert on short fields following Panther fumbles. They missed multiple field goals. Here's what I don't get. Guess who got fired this week? Yeah, it was weird, right? Their wide receiver coordinator? They fired Ike Hillier, their wide receivers coach. Yeah. Is that like Michael Pennix doesn't have any touchdown passes to wide receivers? He's got one.
Starting point is 00:37:07 Oh, okay. They're believing that guy. But I Killiard, when Michael Pennix is off of his worst game in a short sample size as a pro, and I Killiard is the guy who's the scapegoat. And you give the wide receiver responsibility to the quarterbacks coach who had been the wide receivers coach. before like what's that about that feels like that feels like sort of corporate scapegoating to me okay so because i i didn't even when i first saw that initial report i just thought again always negative in my mindset of okay he either broke some type of law or something went on behind the scenes that we
Starting point is 00:37:47 don't know about because like chad just said you don't see the wire receiver coach got fired a week three it's that's a really random guy to blame um so i'm with you on that that that is a one of the weird fires. So that, even though I'm on the Falcons at three, and it's because of the number, the reason I don't like it because that just feels like scapegoating, excuse making,
Starting point is 00:38:07 inside an organization where they're flailing, you know, they brought in Kirk Cousins, the coach is frustrated, something about that just doesn't feel right to me. You know? Then again, the reason I bet the Falcons at plus three
Starting point is 00:38:23 yesterday I'm doing my research and I saw, this in the Arizona Republic from a game a write-up from yesterday. And it was clear the Arizona Republic was just trying to win some SEO battle so they could be ranked first when you type in, like, give me analysis of the commander's falcons. This was the write-up. And this is why I bet it at a plus three on Sunday night. It's logic like this. Will Jaden Daniels play for the commanders in this game? Will it even matter? Marcus Marriota proved to be more than capable of a backup in Washington's NFL
Starting point is 00:38:58 week three win over the Las Vegas Raiders and the Falcons couldn't even score against the Panthers. That is the look of someone who read the box score, saw the final score, wrote something as quick as they could and has no idea what they're talking about. That's why you bet the Falcons plus three. There you go.
Starting point is 00:39:14 That's it. I know you love trends. I did look on killer sports. NFL teams off a loss of 28 or more. Falcons got blown out against the team who won by 17 or more, basically a blowout. 58% against its spread since 1989.
Starting point is 00:39:33 Yeah, that makes sense. That's an old man spot. I got one more for you later in the show. Cleveland at Detroit. Detroit is now an eight and a half point favorite. Strange game, because this was at 10 on Sunday, on Saturday morning, before the Browns game and the Packers. Then it got down to seven after the Browns won,
Starting point is 00:39:54 moved back up to nine last night after the Lions win, now down to eight and a half. I got thoughts. I want them to be the same thoughts that you have, so tell me what yours are. I was praying, even though we were on the Lions, I was praying if the Lions did lose, they would get rolled because this was going to be
Starting point is 00:40:15 the most amazing line spot. Because it's indoors on a track, and that's all you need to know about this Lions offense. There's ways to attack that the line of that Lions team, when you get in this exact scenario, where outdoors at home, we've seen the sample now, like two games of them outdoors at home, you cannot mess with this Browns defense.
Starting point is 00:40:37 It's just a totally different team. And I can't wait to see the splits at the end of the year. If this is truly going to be our way with this team, that we fade them on the road, we back them at home because, you know, I 10, like Chad said on Saturday, I did make a bet the look ahead on the Browns, very small, obviously. But I was like thinking that, you know, this will come down, like we said, seven and a half.
Starting point is 00:41:00 That makes more sense. So if you want to take the Browns eight and a half, I get it. I got this right at nine and a half. So I do have it as a lion's line. But I just think situationally, matchup-wise, this is very, very favorite toward this lion's offense. And the Browns offensive, I just know if they can keep up. But the fear for me will always just be,
Starting point is 00:41:22 we're back in a Lions team that just had a historical night. I think it was like some, some insane stat. It was the first time that the Ravens had given up a 90-yard drive at home in like 10 years. The Lions did it twice. So you saw the best possible game the Lions could play in prime time. And like Chad just said, this number has come down. Like there's still professional smart money coming on the Scleveland side.
Starting point is 00:41:49 So another line I'll be patient with. I can't see it getting that much higher. And we've already in the dead zone here. Like eight and a half is the key. number. If it gets the nine and a half, I don't care. It's no different than me betting the lines at eight and a half. So I'll be patient, like the lines here, like their offense. The lines show me what I need to see last night, that they can still run the ball and that that offensive weapons between Leporta, Amonrod, Williams, it's just so deadly when it's all clicking
Starting point is 00:42:18 for that Lions team. So yeah, it's, I'm not going to let the big spread scare me off. I'll go a little chalk here. Take this line side. I'm so glad you said that. So glad you said that. There's a little bit of clarity after three weeks, right? More than you have after two weeks. And what we had last night was an example of the Ravens defense is troubled. And we're going to talk about that. But the Brown's offense was so bad and so ineffective, it could not move the ball against this Ravens. defense that has now been pretty much blown up by the Lions and by the Bills. That's fair. So to me, I'm looking at this and thinking, the Lions defense and their pass rush was pretty good last night. And they were pretty effective against Lamar.
Starting point is 00:43:18 You're getting a much better team that love to run up the score and go full throttle at home. And they're feeling themselves right now. And they're coming home against a team. where they know they can sort of assert dominance, and they're now two and one, and they got the Packers at two and one, and this thing's wide freaking open.
Starting point is 00:43:45 This is a tiebreaker game now, which is even crazy to think. If they win this, that can be held with a tiebreaker at the end of the season over Green Bay, which is just bizarre a world. So I love the lions here. Oh, gosh.
Starting point is 00:43:58 Oh, gosh. I like the line. I was going to say the poor Browns, I know we talk about how bad the Giants had to start the year. The fact that the Browns have had to go, you know, a Bengals team with Joe Burrow, then Green Bay, and then, you know, they're Ravens. Now the lines, it's just the schedule makers, man.
Starting point is 00:44:14 I feel bad for some of these teams. They just started the year. They're just like, nope, you're going to be 0 and 4 or 1 in 3, no matter what. The question is, do I wait for the Lions to get to 8? Because it could get there. That's what I said. I said, be patient. Like, I just, I don't see it getting back to 10.
Starting point is 00:44:29 No. I know some really smart professionals who were, on this brown side and it's really about what we talked about last week it's just their D-line is going to be an insane problem for all these different teams that have a little bit of questions at you know guard positions which this is you know there's some questions about the lion's interior line i know we didn't look at last week but you know they've improved three straight weeks that's where we're banking all this line's interior line they keep they've gotten better they're getting more in rhythm here and um you know tons of respect mason graham miles garrett that front
Starting point is 00:45:00 four. We know the deal with this Brownstein, but I love that we're on the same page here. It's indoor. It's going to be a track meet. It's going to be tons of points. Joe Flacko cannot keep up with that. Can't. My worry is that they bring in Dylan Gabriel and that changes the scope a little bit. He gets garbage time points and whatever. I'm going to walk away and try to temper some of my enthusiasm and not go all in on a team that just had a massive win on Monday night. I think the number is a little bit skewed. I think that it should be. closer to 10, to be honest.
Starting point is 00:45:32 So I still like the Lions, but I want to wait until I can get a better number. Patience. Patience. Right? Look, that's all of our favorites we like. Yeah, I know. That's what's, that's honestly why I couldn't make a, a sort of choice yet, because I keep looking at this and, like, I like the Chargers.
Starting point is 00:45:52 Yeah, I love the, I like the Lions. Like, let's talk about Tennessee, Houston. Houston is a seven-point favorite. But here's how I think we've grown. You ready? Two years ago, I knew you like when I go deep. Two years ago, I think we automatically would have bet the Titans as division home dogs against the Colts this past weekend. But we didn't, right?
Starting point is 00:46:18 Last year, we would have passed on the game entirely instead of fading the Titans when they were playing like trash. This year, we did the right thing. we faded the Titans, and we bet on the Colts. The Titans are now 3 and 17 against the spread with Brian Callahan as their coach, the last season plus three games. This past weekend, they couldn't even get a field goal off at the end of the first half because they were too disorganized for the operation. This is a penalty.
Starting point is 00:46:49 It got moved back. They missed the field goal. The offensive line, which we hoped would have been a strength, is just atrocious against pressure, which is something that Texans do well. CJ Stroud is seeing ghosts here in footsteps. Their success rate is amongst the worst in the NFL. I think only the Titans are worse.
Starting point is 00:47:11 But what's more frightening for me about the Texans' offense is that they're not terrible against pressure, and yet CJ is still feeling the footsteps. So I don't know what to do here. Tell me what's sharp. Tell me what square because I'm kind of at a loss. Yeah, I'm happy to pass on this one. I would say the sharp side will probably will be Tennessee, like you said,
Starting point is 00:47:32 they're going to be undervalued here. And their biggest weakness looks like it's against the run. You still can't run the ball. So that right there, it's like, okay, at least there's something you can bank on with this Tennessee team that their biggest weakness, maybe it won't be exposed in this matchup. And it's just an insane number.
Starting point is 00:47:51 Like the fact that this 0-13 Houston team is minus seven at home against Tennessee. I can't believe the Tennessee's viewed that poorly by the bookmakers. Like I have this line at four and a half. So I'm way off of it. I like the Tennessee's how what Chad just said. I just, even last week, I get it. It was a Tennessee spot quote unquote. I just couldn't get there with the coaching staff and all their weaknesses.
Starting point is 00:48:14 And it's the same thing here where the number makes sense. They are insanely undervalued against a bad Houston's team that's being overvalued. propped up. It feels like same because of what they did last year. Even this year, their defense has been good. But overall, man, it's that offense. And that's a huge number for a struggling offense to cover. And we know the deal is CJ. Like, you know, there's, Stroud has got issues right now.
Starting point is 00:48:42 So yeah. Yeah, I just can't be confident back in his side, even though I'm really tempted to because this just feels like the books are telling themselves making this such a big number. I thought this is a Houston game in a Houston spot. but I'll just avoid this one like the plague hopefully and one will them bet on it in that because if I bet it on I'm going to have to put it on one of my TVs and I just I don't have to watch this game I've experienced Houston last week and that was enough for me so yeah I'm happy we can pass on this one corner TV game the meme that's going around this past week is where CJ Stroud was talking to Caleb Williams last year and say keep your head up you know stop making these mistakes or you're done to do great like all this parental advice. And then someone has thrown a stat box up of how CJ has done since that game versus Caleb.
Starting point is 00:49:31 And Caleb is just better in every metric. You'll accept the major ones, which is win his division. Which is winning his division and winning in the playoffs. Yeah. Yeah. You and your. I know the things that matter. Who cares?
Starting point is 00:49:44 You and you're winning. Yeah. Who do you know? Playoff games. I need stats. I need 50 touchdowns. I need superficial numbers. Okay.
Starting point is 00:49:53 New Orleans at Buffalo. Oh, God. Dude, hear me out. Okay? We've talked about liking favorites. You flagged this on Sunday night when it was at 15 and a half and said your ratings would likely have it at 16. 17, yeah. Well, now it's at 16 and a half.
Starting point is 00:50:11 The initial read's right, though. Like, I thought my motto would have this at 17, 17. It does. It has at 17.5. So I'll still take this bull aside, but this is just another. game where Chad knows me. Like I'll just be a coward. I'll probably have a ton of either alternated lines. Like I'll break this down to six and a half or five and a half or Bill's money line. I bet it that way. But this will most likely be our survivor pick. Like I love
Starting point is 00:50:36 weeks like this that we can just take off, pick the obvious one. There's just no world. There's no world with the rat. Spencer Rattler beats Josh Allen in this spot at home. Because as, you know, much as you want to think, well, they have so many injuries to their defense, right? The bills they are susceptible to offensive like right now like they're there are injuries to their defense um we've seen they exploited basically in every game they've played this year i mean i guess the jets it wasn't but you you've seen that josh down has to be superman so big spread like this with a bad defense i get by guys might be on the same side i just i can't get there i like after last week me and chat talk about it when you don't have a coach which i i don't think killem
Starting point is 00:51:21 more as a head coach and you don't have a quarterback you're so far behind down in the new NFL where it's like these teams that go for it on their own 30 on their own 20 you'll never they're never going to be in that position the Saints and if they are in that position it's because they're already down by 14 like they're just it's just all so bad and I know that we knew coming to the season they were going to they were trying to tank for that first pick but they fooled me a little bit on their first two home games where it's like oh I saw some fight I saw a little heart that Seahawks game is a total other way. They quit immediately after getting down by a couple points.
Starting point is 00:51:54 So you got a well-rested bills team. Hopefully gets healthy on defense, huge spread. I'm on the bill side. Even my pickpoles, I've taken the bills. Because like you said, a lot of my pickpoles locked in a 15 and a half, 16. As long as yours is below, 17, I think it's a good number. A huge favorite against a really bad team. And we've seen the new NFL that's a huge gap between these really good teams and
Starting point is 00:52:16 there's really bad teams. So nothing here to wrap my head around for back in the same. other than the bills have an injured defense and it's a big spread. I just, I wonder who's betting this the saint's side other than your one buddy who just loves betting big dogs and the professionals that are just like, this is modeled of 14.5. It's 16 and a half. I'll take that number. I don't know who's modeling that like that anymore. If you're not, if you are, then you're not paying attention to the past couple years.
Starting point is 00:52:41 I'm not going to judge. Everyone's got their own models. Some works. Like Chas are saying here, that some are just absolutely dog shit. Well, I'm a judgeer. That's what I do. I like the bills. I'm probably going to bet the bills at 16 and a half.
Starting point is 00:52:54 I'm with you. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. It's the last week for teams to punch their ticket to baseball's postseason. Who's in? Who's in? Who's out? So step up to the plate and take a swing on Hard Rock Bet today. New customers can place a $5 bet. And if it hits, you get your winnings and $150 in extra bonus bets.
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Starting point is 00:54:32 In Indiana, if you or someone you know is a gambling problem and wants help. Call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. Indy at the Los Angeles Rams. Rams are three and a half. Let's get some context, okay? The look-ahead line on this was six and a half back in May. The Rams six and a half point favorites, right?
Starting point is 00:55:03 In May? In May. Okay, okay. In May. On Sunday night, it was four and a half. You talked about a Sunday night. You said you're going to take the Colts at plus four and a half. It was the sharp move.
Starting point is 00:55:14 You know, it's moved down to three and a half, shortly after we got off the air on Sunday night, live show moves lines. That's not surprising because the Colts were dominant again on Sunday, but the Titans team is clearly pretty bad. What I'm trying to figure out is what is the edge for the Rams, right? The Colts have gotten, given up just two sacks all season
Starting point is 00:55:35 while being blitzed more than any team in the league. The blitz rate against the Colts is higher than any other team. The Rams edge has been their pressure and their pressure rate and their pass rush. So my question becomes, are we playing with fire? Like, we are three weeks in. How much of your ratings on the Colts moved to give you confidence betting the Colts in this game? I mean, it's moved a lot.
Starting point is 00:56:01 I got very lucky, though, that I was, I mean, people can go back, or I guess you can't, but I said that if the Colt had made the movie, Deino Jones, I was going to be much higher on that team. And I never saw it be in what it's become, where it's like, he's doing some pain Manning didn't do. Payton Manning had the most juggernaut insane offense. I look back to my childhood of like this Pan Manning years, my teenage years, it was like he was the goat. He was the greatest, even though Daniel Jones has done better and broken all his numbers early here. And it's like, that's the Shane's second vision. That's what he's just been pounded table that if he just had the right guy, that they had the pieces there to make it all work. So Colts couldn't be higher
Starting point is 00:56:42 the vibes right now. And that's what I bet that opening line. I couldn't believe it was four and a half, and I just knew there's no chance it would go up. But I am firmly on the Rams side here. You are. Yeah. And this was almost the assignment says, but I think we can be patient,
Starting point is 00:56:58 and we might get the three like we did with the Eagles, which again, didn't matter, but that's my job. I'm just trying to get you people with the best number I possibly can here. And this to me looks like a number that could keep coming down
Starting point is 00:57:10 because I think a lot of what you said is true that the general public and professionals alike will be on that Colts side with that number because through three weeks they have looked like the better side. And they look like a pretty even team. I know it sounds crazy to say, but like they're not that different than this Rams team when it all is said and done. Biggest weakness to me is this Colt secondary can be attacked. You saw Bo Nix miss thick throws again against this Colts team. They have to settle for field goals that Stafford usually doesn't miss. And that Eagles game, like I said, every little thing went wrong.
Starting point is 00:57:49 And McVeigh, we played like a coward. He really did. Where in that second half, he took the field goals. Yeah, he was super conservative. Yeah. Like, he just went so safe conservative against the team that if you give them a little bit of life, they took it from him. So I see this as being a spot that even if they get up,
Starting point is 00:58:07 they'll keep laying it on this Rams team. And I look at this matchup-wise, I think it does come down honestly to Jonathan Taylor. As much as I do give respect to Daniel Jones, if they can get their running game going, they can do stuff off play action, that's where you've seen Daniel Jones really excel because he's getting outside the pocket and he either has a deep down the field read
Starting point is 00:58:26 and Warren or Pittman in the middle of the field or he picks up that five, seven yards on that first down of his legs, and that's been so huge for that Colts team where it's like it's what Anthony Richardson couldn't do. He always just took the run or he couldn't make that middle-level throw. Daniel Jones has been doing both perfectly. So I get the love, the vibes are super high for this Colts team. But like the Rams were fade last week, this is such a Rams spot and a Rams number.
Starting point is 00:58:51 Of course, no one's taking the Rams minus three and a half right now, right? They're just, they're all going to be taking the Colts number. So I'm going to be patient here. Love the Rams. Well, when we remember serious discussion Sunday, maybe we'll make us force this one in because they're probably one of my favorite best this Rams side. And I just love their matchup matchup offensively.
Starting point is 00:59:11 And like you said, defensively, there are ways that Daniel Jones can exploit them, but you're banking on Daniel Jones to play very well for four straight weeks. That is in the NFL, only the very top level guys can say consistent week and week out. So like you said, it's scary. We're stepping in front of obviously the hottest team, one of the hottest teams on football. But I'm going to trust the numbers here, trust that they're overvalued and trust that this is the same Colts team that, you know, should have lost to them. remember that's that's fair to say and uh they're a team that's kind of being overvalid because they beat up on a really bad Miami team get up a really bad Tennessee team played well against
Starting point is 00:59:52 a pretty good Denver team where the Rams they showed last week they're a legit good team against like they showed against the Eagles team and um I think we're getting a nice by-low spot here on this Rams team yeah in everything you just said to sum it up it sounds like we're betting the spot we're not betting anything about the matchup we're not bet anything about the teams, we're not even thinking about any advantages the Rams may have, maybe a little bit against the Colts secondary. But I agree with you.
Starting point is 01:00:21 I didn't want to bet the Colts at all, even at 4.5. I've just been trying to figure out how to get to the Rams because I love them in this spot. Totally love them. And if you did join me on the 4.5 of the Colts, be patient, then wait for the 3,
Starting point is 01:00:38 because that's a real middle. Like that's a nice little middle of the books are giving you And they usually don't move it that much Because they hate giving up the middles But I'm checking right now And it's all the money It's all on the Colts So like I said professionals
Starting point is 01:00:55 Joe Public, they're all coming in And across the board, every book right now It's three and a half on this number So just be patient I think one more pop for us We'll be able to get that three on this ramp side I'm gonna wait I'm with you
Starting point is 01:01:08 I'll end up betting the three and a half I entered never last week. I never got the Eagles three in Connecticut. I couldn't get it. So I had to bet the three and a half. I bet it on Sunday morning. I was walking my dog and I started to see the juice moving the direction that was going to move the number back to four.
Starting point is 01:01:27 I'm like, oh, Jesus Christ, I'm just going to bet it right now. And I was miserable for about 59 minutes. Jacksonville at San Francisco, San Francisco. 49ers minus 3 minus 120 at hard rock bet listen the news out of San Francisco is that nick bosa is out for the year with a torn ACO here's the question you have to ask has any team had more high-profile injuries to more key players over the past five six seven years than the nineers now they have the worst injury luck and it's not close it's insane this year was supposed to the year they were healthy because they had such bad injury luck last year but at some
Starting point is 01:02:10 point don't we have to sort of ask the question like is there something going on with the trainer the how they how they treat their players not that i want to be defamatory but isn't i've heard that for years i've honestly heard that for years you have yeah about the 49ers and um yeah i i'm with you like it's interesting they have all these soft tissue soft tissue injuries the most of one obviously is just bad luck um but yeah Yeah, this game, another game where I just couldn't believe this opening line. To me, it's a Purdy line. Yeah, because it gotten up to four and a half after the game.
Starting point is 01:02:49 Oh, okay. It got up to four and a half on, on after the games on Sunday. And then the buyback started happening. Maybe it's not then. Maybe it is a Mack Jones line. But I have this, if it's purdy, I have some minus six. And I know there's a ton of injuries, this four-in-hner's team. Salah is like
Starting point is 01:03:09 he might be the best defensive coach of football I know Flores is unreal and Fangs is incredible for the Eagles but like I can't get over the schemes and the stuff he's doing with the talent they have on this finance team which I talk about coming here
Starting point is 01:03:22 they're a very young defense and he highlight whatever guys are good at he just highlights it so well and they bring in these free agents and Salas just made them be so much better
Starting point is 01:03:33 than they were where they previously came from so I just this is totally. totally like a purdy bet, but it's also just a solid bet, this defense against this Jaguar's offense that just feels constipated and just not right. And I just do not like this spot at all for this Jags team where I thought this was going to be a way more public side. We'll see as it goes along here. But every pro I've talked to is just like me. They're on this 49ers team. So this could be another sharp first square where the public is very square
Starting point is 01:04:03 on this Jaguar side, taking a public dog here. And this 49ers team got away with one last week. But I look at this matchup that's very favorable to them. And McAfre, I saw some crazy stat where he's like leading the league in touches. And he could break, if he keeps at this pace, he'll break the NFL record for touches. But that's what they should be doing. When you watch, he is such a difference maker to that offense. And everything should run through him.
Starting point is 01:04:28 Just wear him out. Like you got him. We've seen him McAfre. When he's healthy, he is. the guy. So like you can't predict injuries and they should to me just keep doing what they're doing run their offense through McCaffrey and this is a great matcher for McCaffrey as well. So this Jaguars team they're two and one but they don't feel two and one. They feel very fortunate to be two and one. Easier could be three and oh as well though another team like that. But um I I think
Starting point is 01:04:52 that's line mixed toll sense. I had a couple people ask about this one because like why are the Jags a doll kick especially against Mack Jones but um I I think I think there's a pretty line like again I I can't believe it came down for four and a half, but if this is Mack Jones, I'd probably make it closer to a pick or maybe minus 149ers. But with Mac Jones, like I said, I mean, with Pretty, like I said, I'd have this closer to six. So I think if it is Purdy, he gets cleared. He's moving well in practice. Like, I don't even checking all the Vriters' feeds, seeing how he's moving,
Starting point is 01:05:22 watching film him in practice this week. If he does practice, I need to see him pushing off that toe and moving on that foot. And, you know, I talk to ex-foot players a lot of time. These type of injuries, they say it doesn't make. matter because you're literally getting shot up on Sunday anyway or he won't even feel it anyway. But I like to see him sober in practice pushing off the, I just want to see the pain threshold and how he can, how he's maneuvering because we talk about time. Purdy's legs is a big weapon for him.
Starting point is 01:05:48 Yeah. He's really mobile and great in the pocket that way. So yeah, I know it's crazy. We keep giving out favorites here, but this is another favorite I like. I like to chalk this week. You just mentioned Trevor Lawrence. Let me give you some context here. How bad, you know, we're not Trevor Lawrence fans.
Starting point is 01:06:02 No. Full stop. We're so off the train. And that team feels like it's on a knife's edge of just descending into chaos and frustration with a lot of young talent that hasn't had success and is going to get really frustrated with yet another new coach who can't seem to. And this is not a Liam Cohn thing. This is just a nature of the situation they're in because of the talent they have.
Starting point is 01:06:28 The JAG's EPA per pass, expected points added per pass is 23rd in the league. That's not very good. That's a reflection of the quarterback. This is while there's sack rate, sack rate allowed, second lowest in the league, pressure rate allowed, lowest in the league, blitz rate, meaning how often Trevor Lawrence is being blitzed, fifth lowest in the league, with no pressure. They played, Chad, let's see who they played real quick. They played Carolina, Cincinnati, and Houston. And that's Chad giving out those numbers. With no pressure, Trevor Lawrence cannot be effective in the passing game.
Starting point is 01:07:10 What is he going to do against Robert Sala, who like Simon just said and who, by the way, during the off season, we kept saying, he might be the most important addition to a coaching staff other than Ben Johnson. I'm dying to bet the Niners at minus three. Yeah. Yeah, it's a good number. We're all over the favorites here. Baltimore, Kansas City. Kansas City is plus two and a half hard rock bet.
Starting point is 01:07:35 We're being tempted. Oh, my God. We are being tempted here, Simon. Context again. The Lions moved from touchdown to eight and a half after Monday night football. The Raven State put at two and a half. Anyone who has done any betting during the Mahomes era knows his record. record as a dog, his record is a short favorite. Anyone who has done any betting during the past
Starting point is 01:08:04 two years has watched since the Super Bowl, including the Super Bowl, this offense is struggling to find a playmaker. Is it Taekwon Thornton? Do we think the Ravens can game plan against him? Are the chiefs closer to the Browns who were ineffective? Are they closer to the lines and the bills who couldn't be stopped. Like, the Giants game was a struggle for this Chiefs team. They, like, they needed every mistake the Giants made in order to lock in a cover against that team. The Holmes had to be otherworldly.
Starting point is 01:08:46 What do we do here, Simon? What do we do? What is sharp? What is square? You know what to do here. This is the squarest line of the week. Ravens 2 and a half. The bookmakers,
Starting point is 01:08:58 are they our friends, tab, they're our best friends, apparently, because this looks like free money. I cannot believe this line is still holding at two and a half. So I personally,
Starting point is 01:09:11 I can't bet the Ravenside. I just cannot do it and come on the show and say that I'm a professional and better. It is so chalky, so trappy, stinks to high heavens. I cannot believe this line is at three and a half.
Starting point is 01:09:26 at least three, just every book is sitting on two and a half and getting pounded. I was a sucker Sunday night as soon as I saw this number. Just in case the Ravens were going to win, I took the two and a half. And it's like, there's no way. Even the Ravens was losing. There's no way there's still two and a half. And here we are at two and a half still. So in the playoffs, I would be putting my life savings on the chiefs here.
Starting point is 01:09:48 A home dog in the playoffs of this number against Lamar team. But Lamar in the regular season, this is technically a good spot. a good number. I can't believe it. I cannot believe. This number is insane because the books you're telling you, the Ravens are losing this game. Like they're not even said they're going to cover.
Starting point is 01:10:08 They're like, this is a crazy, crazy number to hang by the sports book. So I have to be on the Chiefs. There's no doubt I'll be on the Chiefs. I'm going to be patient. Just hope it gets fed up. But just a bizarre number.
Starting point is 01:10:21 And we talked, Mahomes. Yes, he's been incredible his career as a dog or under three points, but I brought it up with that Eagles matchup in this exact scenario that the only time they ever been a dog at home was against the bills. And I believe he had lost 24 to 20
Starting point is 01:10:36 in that matchup and the bills have covered. And we just saw against the Eagles. Eagles were a favorite. I think it was either one and a half or two closed out. The Chiefs is a dog. They lost by three. They almost backdoored it,
Starting point is 01:10:46 but they just couldn't get it going. That end zone pick totally killed Mahomes. So this is the exact type of game. Mahomes and Andy Reid have won the last. nine, ten years. They just pull these teams down to the mud. They bring them on their shitty level and it works, but it's just, I can't believe it. Like, something must be wrong with this Ravens team for this line to be what it is. And something must be wrong with Lamar. And I'm just not seeing it.
Starting point is 01:11:09 And I'm overlooking it. And I can't believe it. I cannot believe this is two and a half. It is to me the most shocking. We talk about stinky, fishy lines this week. This is by far the fisciest line. So if this was late in the year, I would be all over the Ravens. I'm going to trust the trends, the spot. This is very telling by the bookmakers about this line. So I'm going to take the Chiefs, but my God, I feel sick to my stomach doing it. But I know
Starting point is 01:11:35 this is another long term winter spot and got a trussle model. Had this at a pick. So I know. I'm still high. My model is still high on this Chief's team. It's just, it really is. I mean, I could say whatever I want about my home's
Starting point is 01:11:51 especially is. It really is a Spag's thing, though. Like my model just, I always will get favoritism to the Chiefs and Spag's defense as the season goes along the defense always gets better so now we're in four weeks i've seen every week since that week one chargers game the defense has improved yeah and um that's my takeaway from like you can say whatever you want it's russal wilson i thought they played pretty well defensive against him and that giant's team so chad nailed our biggest question mark is mohomes his weapons can he make it work this raven's team just looks like they have major jeter issues on defense they're working through right now so
Starting point is 01:12:24 I can't believe this line. I cannot believe it. Going to be the biggest need of the book. There's two games that are going to be huge needs for the books this week. This is one of them. The other ones coming up a little later on the show. One of these teams is going to be one and three after this weekend. Is that crazy?
Starting point is 01:12:41 It's insane. Because I got both of these teams in every Super Bowl matchup bet that I have. Yeah, I mean, again, we're in September. So you've got plenty of time. You're going to be all right. But I'm with you. That is crazy. One of them is going to have to come around.
Starting point is 01:12:54 some point. I'm surprised that you went that hard on the chiefs. I thought when you started talking, you were going to say Ravens. I don't really have a strong opinion on this game. I know. How do you not take Ravens? That's why I can't believe this. Like Ravens coming off that loss, Chiefs coming off their win, you know. It's like the chiefs looked terrible beating the Giants. They like Patrick Mahomes was running for his life against the Giants. Not your friend though. Just keep saying it to yourself. They're not, they're not here to give you money. You know who my BFF is? It's true. It is. You're my BFF. You're my friend. Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news?
Starting point is 01:13:35 Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we, how do we actually come up with a Hey Jonas, guys. I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking. I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers.
Starting point is 01:14:07 This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Starting point is 01:14:28 Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. The story I've told myself about love or relationships can then shake my behavior. And that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast deeply well with Debbie Brown and explore the journey of healing, self-discovery, and returning to yourself. We explore higher consciousness, emotional well-being, and the practices that help you find clarity, peace, and self-mastery in a world that can feel overwhelming. The world is becoming lonelier.
Starting point is 01:15:04 We're not becoming more social and connected. We're becoming more individualized, but we actually meet people in connection. If you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole. This podcast is for you. To hear more, listen to deeply well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than me. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian, and recently, I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast,
Starting point is 01:15:47 hope from a hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary.
Starting point is 01:16:13 Oh, cream of chicken suit. Hey, cream. Cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrite as part of the Mike Coutura Podcast Network available on the IHartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Deanna Maria Riva, actress, mother, lover, and a Gen X woman walking through life one hot flash and hormonal crying jag at a time. You ladies know what I mean. I'll bet you a perimenopausal chin here you do.
Starting point is 01:16:42 So let's talk about it. Join me on my new podcast. How Hard Can It Be with Deanna Maria Riva, where I call it. on my Gen X squads from Ohio to Hollywood as we navigate Midlife's most fantastic BS. All of a sudden, I'd had hanginess happening on my own. I was like, what the hell is that? I was married when I had her, so I didn't even consider how empty that nest was going to be. Mood swings, night sweats, fupas, sex drive.
Starting point is 01:17:09 Wait, what sex? Dating at 45, how can it be getting naked at 50 with the new guy? That one's kind of hard, you know? Well, that's lighting. I say we can't polish a turd, but we're sure going to try. So let's get blunt with laughs, tears or tears of laughter, and dive into it, unfiltered and unbothered and ask, How Hard Can It Be?
Starting point is 01:17:26 I cannot believe I'm about to say this out loud in public. Listen to How Hard Can It Be with Diana Maria Riva as part of My Cultura Podcast Network available on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Chicago at Las Vegas, this one is bouncing all over the place, no matter where you live. The Raiders were favorites. In some spots, dogs and the others, minus one at Hard Rock Bet right now.
Starting point is 01:17:51 You highlighted this immediately Sunday night when the Raiders were one and a half point dogs. Like, it's had a whole journey. At one point on Sunday, they were favorites. And so it keeps just bouncing back and forth, back and forth. I think a lot of it depends on, you know, the state you live in and the book you're using. But the Bears beating the Cowboys and the way the Raiders lost to the commanders is doing some funkiness. this line. Yeah, and I just, the Raiders team, I knew coming to the season, they were going to have some weaknesses on the offensive line. I didn't know it was going to be this bad. They just,
Starting point is 01:18:28 they can't get any sort of running game going. And we've seen Gino is not the best when he's under pressure. So there are some, if you're trying to back the bears, there are some aspects you can like. They've looked like the better team through three weeks. Their defense is, I know it's a weakness of that Bears team, but at least they have some guys and get pressure. But when I look at, the Bears secondary, they got away one against Dallas. Oh, yeah. And this matchup is not good for them against this Raiders team, indoors on a fast field.
Starting point is 01:18:58 And Caleb, we saw what he can be when there's no pressure. Max Crosby is not anything close to what the Dallas Cowboys is on their front for. He's going to get his. There are guys beatable on this Bears front line. Like their line is still working it out, figuring out, right? They brought in a bunch of free agents. and they're just putting all these guys together.
Starting point is 01:19:18 It takes a little bit. So once again, like this Bears team, I kept saying, I really think they're going to be much better later in this season. That was the perfect game against Dallas. And we talked, that was a bear's spot. But between the CD injuries, the turnovers they kept getting, like it all just really went that Bears away. Cowboys right tackle left the game and is done for the three weeks.
Starting point is 01:19:36 Yeah. So, like, it just kept, it was just so bad for that Cowboys team. And you'll see the line reflects of the Cowboys out of a bunch of injuries. Their number has moved a ton this week. So that makes sense. I just think it's the hate's gone too far in this Vegas team where the Bears might win this game, but this shouldn't be more than them being a dog, right? Like they should be a one point, one and a half two point dog in this game.
Starting point is 01:20:01 There's a bunch of books out there that still have them as a one and a half point favorite. So people can easily see where my read here is. I'm just taking the value, better number on a team that isn't as bad as they think they are. and Vegas at home in this matchup, to me, is pretty favorable. Like, that was not like a brutal spot last week, but it was a little bit, right? Them going on the road. Yeah. Sure week against a backup, they just, from the get-go, they were just getting mulled.
Starting point is 01:20:29 And we've seen it early in the year, early in the year here, we overrate inflate too much on the small sample size that we have of these few games. So still have hope for this Raiders team, but they easily look like the fourth team. in this division and um you know that this line here reflects that if they if they had shown anything last week they easily would have been a favorite in this match against this bear team because like i said most models aren't going to have this bear's team highly rated right as as great as as gailaub williams looked there's still some things to take away from them that he struggled with so uh yeah betting the number don't know if i'll force it into our contest we'll see as the week goes
Starting point is 01:21:04 along here but i i am on the raider the raider side of plus one and a half but not not one of my five favorite bets yet this week. You know, we got a lot of questions last week. Why didn't we talk more about the Raiders and the commanders against Marcus Marriota? And like, we just didn't like the game. We talked about it on Tuesday, never went back to it because we just couldn't figure out what did we like about the commanders. What do we like about the Raiders?
Starting point is 01:21:32 It just wasn't a game that was, you know, that we were tracking. It was appealing to us. This week, a little bit different. You just mentioned Dallas Cowboys, a lot of injuries, now seven point home underdogs on Sunday night football against the Green Bay Packers. Like, man, does the NFL know how to do drama? We thought the script writers were crushing it with all those block kicks. And then we forgot that they were coming back with next week's episode and bring in Micah Parsons back to Big D. It's brilliant, brilliant programming.
Starting point is 01:22:07 I don't like this game. Like, Mike is back. CD's out. The right tackle is out. They can't stop anyone on defense. Matt Ibruflu's continues to be, you know, a recycled joke. What do we do with this game? Honest to God, I don't know what to do with this game.
Starting point is 01:22:24 I'm taking the seven, but I'm not putting a lot on it because I think your early readable. This is, this will just keep growing. This is going to be, Green Bay will be in every teaser, every parlay, just like they were last week. The public will not care that they lost. they would come right back on because Dallas has so many injuries and they looked horrible. And they were, I think the number two most bet money and ticket almost at every sports book last week.
Starting point is 01:22:47 Everyone was all over Dallas last week. Now they are totally off of them because of all these injuries. And Green Bay's defense through three weeks, there are another team. You're just like, man, that might be a really, really good defense. And I know I don't want to take too much away from week won the lines. But since then, the lines have looked like a juggernaut. And that week one, they looked totally lost. And it's three weeks down in Green Bay's defense every week has just looked the part.
Starting point is 01:23:13 They look incredible. So for me, it's all, again, plan the number, overvalued team in Green Bay, undervalued team in Dallas, that people still think this Green Bay team is a top three team and the NFC. I mean, they literally had them number one. I think sports books had them as a favorite last week to win the Super Bowl. It's just overreaction. This is a good Green Bay team. team, but they have their own injuries, especially to their offensive line, the wide receiver position.
Starting point is 01:23:39 And, you know, Tucker Kraft, how important he is, I thought you saw that a little bit of Jordan Love. He was using the other tight ends. Like it didn't really matter that much because the scheme they run there with the floor, but Tucker Craft is a big deal to me when you already have injuries to your wide receiver position. You're relying on golden. You're a rookie receiver that could have turned up field, right?
Starting point is 01:23:58 His body carried him out of balance where he could have easily had a touchdown if he just turned his body a little more to carry up field. So it's a lot to put on a Green Bay team that the hype was so high, week one, and I think it's still there in Dallas. I know they have all these injuries. And I know their coach, Schindheimer, seems like it might be an idiot, but I can't get over that. It's going to be the Sunday night game,
Starting point is 01:24:21 and we might be getting a seven and a half on DAC. Like, Dak, he just, as a big dog, like the Eagles, he just covers in those spots. I don't know how he gets there, but he gets there. He always has in his career. So, yeah, could lose it. Could be a bad one. I don't know if I'm going to force it into our contest, because I don't think they'll give us a seven and a half,
Starting point is 01:24:39 but at seven right now as it sits at Hard Rock, I'm taking that number on Dallas. I just, I can't believe how much love this Green Bay team, which is they are very good. They are a much better team than this Dallas team, but a seven point road favorite on Sunday night, I can't believe it.
Starting point is 01:24:55 In week four, it's like, I don't know. It's just bizarre how much love and respect Green Bay got so early in the year. Maybe it's because people love them so much in the preseason, but they just, they're crowding this team so quick that Jordan Love hasn't done anything to earn that. This offense isn't consistent enough to earn that type of respect. So, yeah, I can't believe this number,
Starting point is 01:25:16 but the pros are with the public. They've been hammering this side of Green Bay. It was, like Chad said, it was five and a half Sunday night, all the injuries, CED is most likely out. Like you said, I didn't even know that they had an injury to their right tackle. That's a big deal. So I'll play the number.
Starting point is 01:25:32 I'll play the spot. But yeah, not going to be super confident on it. It's just insane the amount of injuries Cowboys have had to start the year. Yeah. Listen, Jordan Love, he's no Justin Herbert. Yeah. Bo-boom, boom. A little callback for you there.
Starting point is 01:25:49 New York Jets at Miami. There's two Monday night football games. This is one of them. The dolphins are two and a half-point favorites. We discussed it on Sunday night. One of our YouTube viewers, asked about the Jets in this game, we kind of both wanted to pass.
Starting point is 01:26:07 Like this didn't compel me in any particular way. No, and I'll say this, though. I know a really respected group that hit that Jets side. Jets did touch three. And I can't believe it. Like, to me, it was either Miami or no bet at all in this match. Like, we got away with one last week with that Jets side. And I know we had seven and a half the contest.
Starting point is 01:26:29 I had a ton of six and a halfs personally. So it was like, yeah just total miracle type of cover and win there and looking at this matchup it's really about their secondary I just can't get over how bad the Jets secondary is their defense-wise
Starting point is 01:26:44 and Miami yeah they've had some injuries off its line but overall the wire receivers are healthy and you saw against the bills two can't put it together when it clicks right it's all going right he does make it work
Starting point is 01:26:58 two against a bad team like that's the other part of it too beats up on bad team bad team. So I'll take it. It feels like another sucker number like that Ravens game, but this side I will take it. I don't think it's going to be as heavily public as Miami side. But yeah, again, another game I don't feel great about. I bet it. It's my job to give out an opinion on it. I guess Miami, but my God. Thank God there's two games on Monday night, so I don't have to watch either of them. Well, that's what I was going to say about Cincinnati, Denver.
Starting point is 01:27:25 I'm going to watch them, but holy shit, terrible. Dude, I fell asleep at half time of last night's game, only because I stayed up way too late watching the Chiefs and the Giants because I wanted to make sure I could send all my karma the Chiefs away so they could cover that five and a half because they were trying to give it away and let the Giants go down the field. Cincinnati, Denver, Denver's a seven-point favorite in the second Monday night game. I might not make it to kickoff for this one.
Starting point is 01:27:51 I'm going to say it right now. I know you're going to laugh at me. I think the Sharpside has taken the seven in Cincinnati. They got blown out. There's never going to be more value. I think Denver is still being overvalued. The problem is Bo Nix looks great against bad defenses and looks pedestrian against good defenses.
Starting point is 01:28:14 So he's playing a pretty bad defense. That means he could light him up. I'm not going to bet this one. Slight, slight lean Cincinnati. Sharper square. I agree. I guess the bangos would be the sharp cycle, what you said,
Starting point is 01:28:30 I'm on Bo Nix. And I'm, again, I said I'm on chalk this week. This is another side where you have to get right, Bo Nix. This is such a get right spot against just overall, a terrible, terrible Bengals team. And I know we took a lot of heat from their fans being like, what more do you want? They sign their receivers. They sign their quarterback. They sign their D-Lyman.
Starting point is 01:28:51 You guys are too hard on them. And it's what we talk about all the time. It's like a 10-year-olds building the team. It's like a Madden team. They don't address the weaknesses that their defense out of. their offensive line, and now your quarterback's out for the season. So I'm not doing it. I think Denver's defense, great match for them against a horrible backup quarterback
Starting point is 01:29:09 and Brownie that, you know, he can make big throws, but we've seen it time and time again. He can turn it over. He's just a guy that's loose with the ball, and that's where Denver wants to be. They want to be against a guy that's throwing the ball, pushing downfield. And on the flip side with Bo Nix, they don't really have a guy that can spy him like the Chargers really did. There's ways for him to attack with his feet outside the pocket. it. That's why this number is what it is. They win. They cover that game last week,
Starting point is 01:29:34 probably seven and a half, eight at this point. I mean, I'm looking right now. There's one book at seven and a half. So I guess that's where it is heading. So I'll take Denver minus seven. I can't believe on Denver and Miami Monday night chalk, but. It's terrible. Yeah, it's just terrible. Speaking of speaking of chalk, I've made my, my Chad loves decision. Are you ready? Chad loves the Los Angeles Chargers minus six. Couldn't get away from it. I couldn't get away from it because when we go through the games, like I told you, other than the Falcons, who I loved at plus three and now it's at two and a half. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:30:16 The only teams I like this week are favorites. All right, Simon, as we are talking about this game, the Chargers game that I love, it's been announced that Russell Wilson is being benched in favor of Jackson Dart. The line is moving. You can't get the six anymore. It's at six and a half. I still love it at six and a half. I might like it even more. Tell me why I'm being so sharp right now.
Starting point is 01:30:37 Yeah, we both love it. And it's really, again, it's going to come back to that defense. It's a great defense now going against a rookie making us first start. And me and Chad, I've seen this before, right? We've been burned by the rookie making us first start because there's no tape on them, all the unknowns. But when you have a defense that makes you bent to their identity, like the charges defense does, I still feel confident. And I don't think it's a good number.
Starting point is 01:31:00 It's still, you're still getting under seven, still trust the number. And, yeah, obviously we both would have been more confident at the six. Six and a half is not going to scare me off. As long as you can shop around, people, I get under that seven, which is such a key number. I think this is a good spot, good number for this Chargers team. And, man, Jackson D'R, talk about a bad time to pick your first start. This is brutal.
Starting point is 01:31:19 Kind of crazy that Brian DeBaw would tell the world on Tuesday instead of waiting a little bit longer. So now the Chargers and Jim Harbaugh can prepare for that. But that goes kind of in keeping with how incompetent that Giants team has been throughout the Joe Shine, Brian Dayball tenure. All right. The last thing I want to do, Chad loves the Chargers. The last thing I want to do, we'll be promising it for a few weeks.
Starting point is 01:31:41 Contest winners, you guys have been so kind in helping us relaunch Sharper Square or Launch Sharper Square, new network with the volume, who we love. It's hard to relaunch an audio show and get it to exist in the rankings and consistently be in the rankings the way we have been. It's all thanks to you guys and continuing to rate and review, leave us five stars, saying whatever you want. We want to reward some people. We have gotten some excellent feedback and some five-star reviews on Apple Podcasts. There will be many winners. Our first batch of winners.
Starting point is 01:32:17 T-Mike, Mac, Jimmy Half-Greek, your compadre. I love that one. You're going to email sharper square at gmail.com. We're going to get you a prize. But let me read the winning, the winning review from T-Mike Mack. For some reason, I've enjoyed gambling on football
Starting point is 01:32:39 for 30 years even though I lost money. Since I started listening to Chad and Simon, I am up around $7,000. You need thick skin, though. Best advice Simon gave a while back is that when you're betting a terrible dog, you have permission not to watch it. There have been so many games that were so hard to watch,
Starting point is 01:32:58 but we pulled it out in the end. Thank you for your five-star review, T-Mike, Mac, and everybody else who has done it. Team Mike, you're going to be getting some swag. Jimmy Half-Greek, your compadre, you're all getting some swag. Thank you to everybody who's been listening and leaving the reviews and rating and keep doing it. We're going to keep giving out some more stuff. Let me run down the games that we're going to focus on on Thursday.
Starting point is 01:33:23 We'll probably talk a little bit about the cards, and hopefully they've gotten to be dogs at that point. Chargers minus six, it's moving. Simon says, Chargers minus six is Chad loves. Simon says is the bucks at plus three and a half. Lyons minus eight and a half. We're hoping it gets down to eight. Buffalo minus 16 and a half. What happened to us?
Starting point is 01:33:51 Rams minus three is what we're hoping to get. It's at three and a half. Niners minus three. Jesus, Simon. Chiefs plus two and a half. Thank God we're getting back to who we are. And the Raiders minus one. We're hoping that flips back.
Starting point is 01:34:09 A lot to talk about on Thursday. Brother, it's a lot of freaking favorites. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with the games. We are zeroing in on plus our Survivor pick, our head-to-head battle, brass ball, so much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video.
Starting point is 01:34:33 Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, subscribe, rate, review. Keep those Apple podcast five-star ratings and reviews coming because feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
Starting point is 01:34:56 Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.
Starting point is 01:35:04 We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Starting point is 01:35:23 Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my great.
Starting point is 01:35:35 greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was crying. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis, coming to her, he's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love.
Starting point is 01:35:47 This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Turn someday into right now with Buddy by Jake Radio, nonstop workout music and expert tips 24-7. Hey, head over to iHeart.com. Search Body by Jake Radio.
Starting point is 01:36:05 Stream it for free right now. Awesome help and wellness tips, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Remember, stick to the fight. When your hardest hit, it's when things seem worse that you must not quit. Don't quit. Body by Jake Radio, where hope meets momentum. Search Body by Jake Radio and stream it for free. Have a great day.
Starting point is 01:36:27 Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is, getting a racist statue removed. And here's something that should be a whole lot easier than it is, getting a new one put up in its place. I'm Akila Hughes, and Rebel Spirit Season 2 is about both of those things. As I was watching these statues come down, I was thinking about what it meant that I grew up in a majority of black city, in which there were more homages to enslavers than there were to enslave people. Listen to Rebel Spirit Season 2 on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 01:36:56 This is an IHeart podcast, guaranteed human.

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