The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 5 Bets: Cowboys-Jets, Broncos-Eagles, Pats-Bills, Giants-Saints and more

Episode Date: September 30, 2025

The best month of the sports betting calendar has arrived! October and NFL Week 5 are here, and so are NFL betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter. Together they discuss the latest NFL spreads for NFL Week 5. They look at every matchup on the board to give their top NFL picks, including betting picks and predictions for Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, and Monday Night Football. Games covered include the Cleveland Browns and Minnesota Vikings in London, Dak Prescott's Dallas Cowboys vs the New York Jets, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs at Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars, Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos at Saquon Barkley's Philadelphia Eagles, Jaxon Dart's New York Giants at the New Orleans Saints and more. -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  0:00:00 - Start 0:08:00 - 49ers at Rams Thursday Night Football 0:13:00 - Vikings-Browns in London 0:18:00 - Dolphins-Panthers 0:24:00 - Raiders-Colts 0:30:00 - Texans-Ravens 0:38:30 - Eagles-Broncos 0:44:00 - Giants-Saints 0:48:00 - Cowboys-Jets 0:54:00 - Titans-Cardinals 1:00:00 - Bucs-Seahawks  1:04:00 - Commanders-Chargers  1:07:00 - Lions-Bengals  1:15:00 - Patriots-Bills 1:19:00 - Chiefs-Jaguars Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was crying. You just understood. That's how personal it got.

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There are times when the mind becomes a difficult place to live. This is David Eagleman with the Inner Cosmos podcast, and for Mental Health Awareness Month, we'll talk with singer-songwriter Jewel about anxiety. I started living in my car, and then my car got stolen. I was having panic attacks. I was agoraphobic. This is a month of deeply personal and honest conversations about what happens when the brain goes off course. Listen to Inner Cosmos on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper. It makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined, as always, by my co-host, May BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better. Simon Hunter Hello Simon

Chad it has been an amazing weekend for a person like me that is the ultimate hater and what I mean by that is people don't know I want success for my own teams but I want failure for the teams I hate and this was an amazing weekend if you hate

the Mets like I do the Mets had a historical Mets I know people don't follow baseball as a football show but basically the Mets were shooing to make the playoffs and had an epic collapse and did not make the playoffs literally on the last game of the year and again as a philly's fan i get it were i think the favorite the winner-worth series baseball that means nothing it's so fluky you need a ton of luck the right guys get hot so as a baseball fan i truly am a hater watch the fact

that the met's i got no i don't have to wear the braves the meds i'd the Phillies go loose to the reds i'll be upset but i won't be as upset as i would be if it's a met so yeah it was an amazing weekend for two to second one back to first and the Mets agonizing three and a half month slow motion collapse is complete. It is unfathomable that this collection of talent winds up outside of an expanded playoff system. And then even better, Cowboys tied. Couldn't even get to win the Cowboys. They had to tie game.

So very fun weekend for someone like me as a Philadelphia sports fan. Listen, I am a huge Philly's fan, as you and I had discussed. Even though I'm from Chicago, obviously the Cubs are my loyalty, and I'm going to want the Cubs to advance and win the World Series. But you know how much I love Philly's TikTok. You know how much I love going to Philly's games. You know how much I love Philly's fans. I think they're the kindest and most supportive of all fans in Philly.

The Mets collapse has been something else. I can't tell you how many calls I've been on in the past week where Mets fans have just been lamenting and in agony. You know who didn't collapse this past weekend, Simon? Caleb Blooms? You and me. You and me and the Sharp or Square podcast record. Because we went three and two last week

in our five favorite picks from our Sunday morning show. We won with the Rams, Raiders, and Lions. lost predictably with the chargers and got bakered by the bucks. Just a reminder, folks. Make sure you check out that Sunday a.m. show if you want the games that will ultimately be our official five after we've reviewed the latest line moves from Thursday to Sunday, the injuries. As I said, for the year, we're 12 and 8. 60% through the first month, Simon, of the football

season. I'll take it. I know that you will too. Yeah, painful went out 14 and 6. We left a couple out there. We did. Whenever we do these type of record boards flash up, I mean, going with the red for our loss weeks is going to be painful.

Oh, God. We used to get a couple bad weeks midway through the season. So, yeah, got to keep it in that green. Got to get that three and two every week. I'm thrilled to be at 12 and 8. This is our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. We are entering that part of the season, Simon,

where the really, really, really bad team. are the ones that start lighting up as teams that we have to bet. So we're going to have some of those gross conversations today. And there's different sort of stratospheres of bad teams to bet, and some are just, I test bad, and some are bad spot. Can they bounce back bad? So that's going to be what's interesting when we chat today. Don't forget, get the shows at Serp or Square, Sharp or Square on YouTube.

Go subscribe and like this video while you're at it you can subscribe to sharper square on apple pods Spotify etc all right we're going to kick this thing off with thursday night football 8 15 p.m eastern on amazon prime somebody wake up al michael's our beloved rams are on here's what's interesting you know you and i sunday night ending the month of september had a conversation about the teams that we think might be the best in the nfl i said said Eagles and you said Rams. And what's interesting to me is the Rams underlying metrics actually do have them as the best team in the NFL better than the Eagles. Kudos to you, Simon, for being professional better, who got it right in the moment on Sunday night.

Yeah, and not that the numbers mean nothing, right? It's some teams that certain matchups and who they played against and everything like that matters early in the season. So for me, it was just looking at who they played and how they played and what I've seen. seen from their defense and obviously from Stafford where I was just so worried about his back right anyone that misses a month of summer camp and it turns out it was the right move right they just maybe he re-aggregated it and they just wanted to rest get it right and he came back at the exact right time he's looked great through four weeks and like we said last week he had a couple you know five four or five drives where they just went three and out they had no rhythm that's kind of what

stafford can be like right he is a guy that needs to get in rhythm you've seen The best sometimes for him is their two minute drill when he's just dropping back passing. They're not thinking. He's just in the flow state. So I love this team. That was a miss on us by Sunday night. This was minus three Sunday night. I did look at it.

And my whole thought was. Yeah. Let me just set it up here for a second. The Niners are visiting the Rams. It opened at three. It went to three and a half injury news around Brock Purdy and potentially Mac Jones has moved this to five and a half. So I apologize, but continue.

And we know. knew that Purdy might have been banged up from that game where like he had a bunch of stuff that just didn't look right he wasn't moving great and um yeah if they make the decision go with mac jones how can you not love the Rams here this would be a horrible spot to put Mac Jones in and against the Rams team that you know I feel like they understand this is a big deal this is the team that they're going to probably most likely face the top divisionally and you need to get them while you can right the four-ioners have had some of the them the Ravens are the two by far worst injury luck teams.

I guess Bengals fans want to fair fight with Joe Burrow, but I'm talking about the whole team. Like the amount of injuries the 49 hours had across the board, it's been insane. So, you know, you saw last week, Purdy kept them in the game. They had chances to win. I don't know if Stafford will do the same here.

So at this number, Chad, if we're thinking Purdy's out, the five, five and a half, I'll take it for now. It's just a number I'm betting that if Purdy is out, this will be in every parley, all the teasers, everything is going to be tied to this Rams team. So I easily see this getting up to six, six and a half,

if it is indeed a Mac Jones start here. So honestly wanted to be on the 49ers here. This was going to be a 49ers line and spot. But now with all the injury stuff, it's just, I'm on Rams or I'll just stay away completely in this game. Yeah, what's interesting is the three and a half up to five and a half, that doesn't seem like enough of a move. for going from Brock Purdy to Kyle Shanahan.

And by the way, I mean, from Brock Purdy to Mac Jones. And by the way, Mac Jones is injured too. Like he's got a bum knee right now. Do you know who the third string quarterback is for the San Francisco 49ers? I do, but not. I can't remember on top line. Do you want me to tell you?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Adrian Martinez. Adrian Martinez, you might remember, was a quarterback who never quite got Nebraska over the month. Nebraska, yes. I do remember him from the top of him. And then he was. he went to Kansas State and then he was undrafted in 2023.

And right now with claim to fame is that he was the UFL MVP in 2024. So tell me with Brock Purdy injured and Mack Jones nursing a bad knee, how is it only five and a half? I hope it stays Mac Jones. I don't want that kid coming in, Chad, because I do remember from college and he is very, very, very, very, very, very Colin Capric. Kyle and Coppick light. Like he's that type of running style quarterback that like I could see Kyle using him in the same way that, you know,

Harbaugh back in the used to use Kaepernick. Yeah, that's an interesting play because I didn't know. I didn't know it was him. I thought it was someone to the veteran as their third string. So yeah, I'm on the same boat where I hope it's Mack Jones

and obviously I'm not going to be scared off if it is this kid coming in. But I can squint my eyes enough to see in his first start, like we always say, with no tape. That could be a sneakie. spot play for them, but I think you're right. I think they're going to still go with Mac Jones, even if he's banged up. You know, Kyle just likes the veteran quarterback and I got to run his system.

So like you said, he's got a little injury himself. This number's going up. Like I'm looking at a couple public books right now, five and a half. I think that's very, very, very true with Chad's saying here that the number probably hasn't moved enough and maybe you are getting good value here as long as it's below six. All right. Well, that's interesting. We might want to think about that today. Simon, You know my favorite place in the world is London, England. I know that you have an English passport. You know that I'm really, really good at accents. So guess what we're doing?

We're heading out to International Waters, my friend. International waters, the land that law forgot. There's at 9.30 a.m. Eastern from jolly old London, England. we've got another Brecky. We're getting the full English. I'm going all of it. I'm going all of it. We got Cleveland visiting,

not visiting, but Cleveland at Minnesota. They kind of are visiting. Vikings are three and a half point favorites because the Vikings got there by the time this game is played almost two weeks ago, all the acclamation,

all the sort of sleep deprivation, all the jet lag out of their system. Cleveland is getting there. this week. This one befuddles me a little bit because the line opened at five and a half and it's moved to three and a half. I can't figure it out. Like Kevin Stefansky has already been noncommittal about if Joe Flacco is going to be the quarterback, meaning they may bring in Dylan Gabriel. Joe Flacco, we've been saying this every week. He's truly horrendous. We bet I'm on week one because it was a great spot at home against the Bengals.

We bet on him against him last week, because it was a great spot to fade the Browns on the road. Now we're getting the Browns going overseas against a Minnesota team that offensively is doing well enough. And defensively, it's either going to be Joe Flacco against Brian Flores and him having to move, which he can't, or Dylan Gabriel, all 511 of Dylan Gabriel, going against Brian Flores in his first game in an international game. Why is this moving in the Browns direction? I mean, have you seen the Vikings offensive line in their depth chart? It's bad.

It's bad. It is so bad. And, you know, this total has been dropping, too. I think it opened in the 40s and it's down to 36 and a half. So professional money have coming heavy on the under. coming heavy on this browns team and like my first thought was you know aren't we going to want to fade this browns team because mine too yeah i like i like the browns at home that's going to be something i'm a stand by that they're just going to be a different team at home and two scariest words words in the world chad the browns away the browns are in england so it's like this isn't a home game they're on the

road i know it's outdoors on grass but um it scares me a little bit i wanted to be on the browns honestly because you're getting this incredible defense against a guy that, yes, you can string it together at some points with those incredible weapons, Carson wins. But you've gotten the full long Carson once. He's going to be running around behind that bad offensive line with one hand on the ball trying to do spin moves, you know, 20 yards back. Like, he just can't help himself.

So you are playing with fire in this game. I'll take the dog. But like it's another thing like Pittsburgh last week. I took Pittsburgh with zero confidence, It's just simply playing the number that they had made Carson Wentz a favorite on the road somewhere. And it feels like the same thing here. I'm trying to, I'm trying not to overthink it, that Chad is right. The Browns with Flacco, it's looked putrid.

But Flacko's the type of quarterback that he won't be scared by, you know, the defense of the Vikings run of, these safeties running down to the line and sprinting back 20 yards. Like he doesn't care about all that movement, all the stuff like that. Where if it is Gabriel, you're right, Chad, probably wouldn't be as heavily invested. You don't want a rookie going against a Flores defense. We always know that's never going to work out for them with all the different looks you'll get. So, yeah, this number, like Chet said,

there's a couple four and a half still up there in Cleveland. Hard Rock was one of the first to move to three and a half. So, yeah, some very, very smart professional money has moved this number. And I'm looking at the splits right now. The public is joining them. The public is on Cleveland with the professionals. Here we are on Tuesday.

So interesting, interesting. Everyone just totally out on that Vikings team. There might be value on this Vikings team, like we're saying, but we have to wait for it to get to the three, in my opinion. I'm not looking to play the Browns here. I'm looking for this number to get as low as possible so I can be comfortable playing the Vikings. I would have four and a half. If you can get a four and a half on the Browns, I would play that.

Because I want to enjoy, you know, I'll probably have my cottage cheese with a little bit of cinnamon and some fresh fruit, maybe throw some chia seeds in there. Really, really ramp it up to get ready for a long day. football while I'm watching the football. But I don't want to be on the Browns here. I think there are certain spots for the Browns. This doesn't feel like one of them to me. Now we're going to get interesting. Minnesota, I mean Miami at Carolina. Carolina, one and a half point favorite. As we came on the air, I had not seen this line move. So if it moved in any direction, I'm not not aware of it yet. We have assiduously avoided betting the Panthers. We have not been succored

by their promise or the flashes of Bryce Young in garbage time, you know, whether it was against the Pats last week in which they dominated the box score mainly because they were down 28 to 6 by half time. We actually liked the Pats this past weekend and spot the wise guys like Carolina. Like Carolina. The defense also made Drake May look kind of perfect. 14 to 17, averaging 10 yards per attempt. The market did correct, right? So after they got blown out, it moved from Carolina minus one to Carolina plus one

and a half before the Monday football game. But then, even after the Dolphins win, it had moved back and stayed at Carolina minus one and a half. Everything in this game says I want to bet Carolina. Historically, this is where we should back Carolina, especially off a prime time win for the dolphins and off of a blowout loss for Carolina. Here's the one thing that's holding me back.

These flips from plus one and a half to minus one and a half, the dogs just always end up being on the wrong side. We've seen it a couple times this year, Ravens and Raiders. What am I doing here? What's sharp, what square? Give me the lean and tell me if my lean, and tell me if my lean on Carolina is sharp because I want it to be. It's definitely the sharp side, Carolina. But the movement on this one is interesting because it was one and it was minus one and a half last week.

And it flipped, like you said, just for a little bit to Miami. And it didn't matter what the Miami outcome was going to be. If Miami got rolled, I still think this would have flipped back to the Panthers. I still think the professionals would have came in on this Panther side. And last week, I know you didn't see it. That was such a Miami spot that were 0 and 3 playing against a bad team at home. And I know historical data showed people that 0 and 3 teams, you just blindly tick the dog. I think it's a 60% bet.

But that was, that's Tua's spot, two against a bad team at home, especially the Jets, who I think he's never lost to at home. He wins those games. And this is the type of game that old Tua from just two years ago would win. He's going to play a bad Panthers defense. He should light this defense up. but we've seen they are just a bad team they're inconsistent especially on the defensive side so last week the panthers had opportunities against the patriots it was just a horrible bryce young game

he was terrible i went back and watched the film bad throws even on throes he's connecting with guys he's throwing them behind them slowing them up so they have to drop back to catch it and fall down and just not being what you need bryce young to be which is he's supposed to be insanely accurate it's the one thing he was supposed to be great at in college you saw this year in the games they've won and they played well he's been really on target like his throws have been incredible so it is tough where you are

spot on this is such a panther spot it's a panthers number against a bad Miami team that to me it's just going to be overrated now by the public because what you just said what they did in that primetime game where their defense I think Chuba Hubbard could have a huge game in this match up I'm gonna dive more into this

Panthers team because they have injuries as well to their offensive line and see what I can find out there. But as we sit here right now, I think your initial read of this being a panther spot is true. This is almost my Simon says pick, but it's like, I've punished the fans enough. I want to find something a little, little grosser than this one. And yeah, the Panthers right now, it feels like you can be patient if you want, like there is one book out there that still has them as a dog. I think they're all going to flip the Panthers being a favorite. So I just don't see going back to Miami being a favorite

in the spot. I think it's going to be Panthers professional money while the public is going to come in on this Miami side, especially the plus one and a half. They're going to love that number on Miami. So you think the professional money is just going to outweigh anything that the public does on the dolphins because like maybe this could. Maybe it could get down to one. Maybe it could get down to pick. You know what I mean?

I mean, I can look now. There were, there are ones out there. Yeah, there's a bunch of ones out there. And there's, I mean, there's a book right now that has it at half, half a point. So it's like you could shop around. I mean, I don't want to say it doesn't matter because we just saw it literally happen last week with the Bears and the Raiders.

We said it happened a couple times this year. But yeah, it's an interesting proposition where if you could obviously get that plus one and a half, that's the spot you want to be in with this Panthers team. But I still think that the minus one is a good number on this Panthers side. I like that number for them in this matchup. I'm looking as well.

I see one spot that is at Panthers minus. half. So I know it's just it's scary when we see that line flipping because we know sort of historically that that move is against you if you take the favorite that take the team that closes is the favorite. So I was with you though. I was thinking about making that Chad loves. I'm not sure I'm ready to dive into the Panthers yet so aggressively we'll probably end up wanting to play them in some capacity. Las Vegas Raiders visiting the Indianapolis Colts, The Colts are six and a half point favorites. You mentioned grabbing this on Sunday night when it opened,

assuming it would go up. It did. It went to seven. Then it came back down. I think you and I are both much more impressed with Indy's loss against the Rams, sort of solidified them as a good team that wasn't an early season fluke. A lot of Colts betters and fans would say they should have won that game pretty easily, if not for Adonai Mitchell and his, you know, fumble across the goal line and the holding call on a Jonathan Taylor touchdown.

I mean, that's 14 points right there. So it's hard to exaggerate how important that was to the game. And look, Gino Smith has just been terrible. Like, we love Gino. We thought he'd be a difference maker of veteran presence for this team with really good talent. He'd been awful. Just awful. Yeah, it's a I knew this was going to be a super public play.

I said it's Sunday. This was going to be one more public spots for this Colts team. And it's, it's, it's looking that way. It's, you know, a handful of professional bears reached out to me. They'd like the Raiders. They'd like them at plus seven. And it's what we view, the same thing. It's you're getting Gino once again indoors.

And we've seen him be able to push the ball downfield. And, you know, these last couple weeks, maybe it is just a fluke, right? It's him getting comfortable on your offense. but I see a guy that just simply cannot see the field right now. He is throwing it to guys that are just not open at all with defensive players literally right there next to the guy. Like it's not as if it's a super tight window. I'm talking about a defender on him that Gino,

before the ball has even snapped, made the read in his mind. I'm throwing to this guy no matter what. You do not want to be seen that from a 10-year vet in this league. It's really bad with Gino because you can just see he's in his own head. he's not playing free. This is the worst he's looked since, you know, the first year for the Seahawks where, you know, he was working through things and you saw him getting better

throughout the like couple years there in Seattle. Right now he looks totally regressed. He looks terrible. Raiders, I'm telling you, they're going to be the professional side. I mean, the early line movement showed that. I really thought this was going to get to seven and a half. Like we were saying, this was steaming up. We came on Sunday.

It opened five and a half, went to six, went right to six and a half, got up to seven. and now it's kind of settled in here at six and a half. No opinion on it right now. I'm like really, really trying hard not to just give out this cold side because I love it so much. I'm already on the cold side, but I want to see what the professionals do this line is this week goes along

because I need to hear more about why they like this Raiders team so much in this spot against a cold team that I think we both agree. They look legit like a playoff team. This is the type of team that good playoff teams who coming off a loss on the road come home. and they beat up on bad teams at home in this spot. So I think the number, the number is warranted. It's good respect for the books,

giving this number to the Colts. The question is, has the number moved too much, and that's what I'm worried about here. So I'll be patient. We'll talk about this game on Thursday, and I'm sure we'll hear a bunch more calls about it on short calls. Yeah, like it, you know, we're trying to thread the needle a little bit here.

The last couple years, the favorites, when they're a significantly better team, are winning at margin. And so we're trying not to just do what historically, quote, unquote, the professional betting community would do and take the worst team in a number that's getting to a touchdown

automatically just because that's what you're supposed to do, which is why I'm with you. I sort of look at this and think, all right, this feels sneaky to me. And maybe it's like, you know, we're overthinking it. But I kind of want to be in the Colts and I want to figure out how to get there. Yeah, and we'll see too as this is a good longer.

Because right now, that's why I'm upset that we don't have a better record. This is honestly one of the best starts in my professional career to a season. It feels like all the dogs we love, they're all coming through. The easy chalk favorites against these really bad teams that we just don't trust are coming through. And I'm interested in what it goes. goes along here as the season progresses because the dogs like chet said they fall off a cliff we could not stop going two and three last year because no matter what that third dog or that fourth dog we took in our contest would just get rolled where we're not used to that usually they would cover or at least

keep these games closed so that's what i'm excited to see because we're through four weeks it's honestly been a dream like if you especially guys i knew who just simply fade the public they have been cashing at an alarming rate i mean how like that that cowboy's packer games are the prime example i think last Sunday I said, I don't care what the number was for the Cowboys, you're going to have to fade that Green Bay team. This number was going to give it too inflated. I think it touched seven at some point last week. Yeah. Seven and a half. Right. And it's like that was, that's what should be having. We're used to that. Right. Those examples, like she said saying last year, the Green Bay wins that game by 20. It was very bizarre last year. What was happening with the favorite. So right now, I think

it's looking good for us. We can stay confident and bit in our ugly dogs. But if we get, if we have two, three weeks in a row we get burned like say week nine 10 and 11 i do think we'll have a major discussion where we need to make those adjustments that last year we didn't make and this year we're going to make so we've done well this year we've been putting favorites in yeah they've been coming through for us i think we've got to stay the course that we at least always get one favorite in our picks and this week i don't know about you i have a couple favorites i like but um this one here it's another favorite i like the colts minus six and a half houston at baltimore baltimore is a three and a half Now, dude, this was at nine on Monday morning.

Nine. By Monday afternoon, it was at three and a half because of all the news about Lamar Jackson in addition to all the other Ravens injuries. But this is really about Lamar Jackson and his uncertain status because of his hamstring. Here's what I find interesting. I alluded to it earlier. The Ravens might be with Lop Lamar. And the line moves, what is it, about five and

and a half points with the potential downgrade to Cooper Rush. The Niners might be without Brock Purdy. The line only moves two points with the downgrade to Mack Jones. So my question is for you, before we get into the game, is Lamar really only worth five and a half points more than Cooper Rush? And is Brock really only worth two more points than Mac Jones? Yeah, I would say, don't, don't read too much into these, like, dumb articles. that's like bookmakers say this quarterback's worth this many points of this team and it's all

it's all about that game that situation and it's i think people over overreact way too much to it because you've seen it with the bangles is joe bro not worth 20 points to that team clearly so that's what i mean it's very stupid someone's like well this bookmaker here says lamar jackson's the highest rate he's worth eight points to this team oh fucking k like it's all about the game the matchup in the situation so you're right it opened nine and a half It quickly went to seven and a half. Hard Rock here in Jersey is at three. And I keep saying hard rock to me is one of the sharper books.

That like, like on whatever it was, two in the morning or one in the morning on Saturday net. I tweeted they were the first book I saw go to the Chiefs plus two. And people are like, what does that mean? I'm like, that means really smart professional money sitting that hard rock number. Same thing's happening here. The professionals are taking a stand. If this number is dipping to three, that means they think they know something here. So I've jumped in on the three and a half.

I'm making text and Simon says, call me Simon. What do you want? I want to play a game. What kind of game? Simon says. Grab the three and a half right now because I'm going to trust that movement. Even if Lamar does play, something is wrong here.

You saw him get caught by guys, some linebackers on that chief's team. Never, ever, ever, ever catch Lamor. If you even go back a week, it looked like he lost half a step. So I think this is an injury he's been battling through. You throw in all the injuries now, the Ravens have had to their team. This is an amazing spot for Houston that that Woody Marks add, having a running back like team with that speed out of the back foot that can catch and run,

I think that's going to take Houston up another level now, where they were trying to force a Nick Chub, it was not working. I think Woody Marks is a huge upgrade at the running back position. Now you add in that CJ feels like his rhythm, going up against our front four of this Ravens team that can't get pressure and can't stop the run. I'm going to take this number. And if it is Cooper Rush, I think Chad's right.

What will this number end up at, right? Is it going to be a pick? Is this going to flip to Houston being a favorite? Let's get ahead of it. I'm going to grab that three and a half. If Lamar comes back at worst, I see this getting up to four and a half. I don't see him moving the number that much because I don't think he's right. I think he is banged up.

And this is insane. This is crazy how far we fall on with this Ravens team. But it's just the injuries. They've been bitten by it. Lamar's been bitten by it. It's just all going bad for this Ravens team. And this is a this is a Houston number here plus three and a half, I believe. Yeah, the only thing that scared me, kind of annoyed me, I would have bet it yesterday. I just bet it literally while you were talking. Your urgency inspired me to make the bet while

you were talking. Because the fear is if we're on the show and Lamar's out, this, this does flip. And it's like, great. Now we missed three opportunities get the best of the number in this matchup. And I don't want to miss it here. I don't want the fans to miss it. That's exactly what it is. Like, I'm annoyed that I didn't get the nine. I'm annoyed I didn't get the seven. I'm like, are you kidding me? That because I was freaking stretching between stretching and, you know,

the two hours later when I finally started working on my stuff for the day, I miss the number and I missed six points of value here. Are you kidding me? I know. That's what's annoying me. I was saying, no one wants to hear about your bet you didn't make. My worst one was that, that early morning game last week with the Vikings. Wentz gets the bullback, I knew he was going to get them downfield

and somehow score a touchdown. And I go to hit it live. It's plus nine and a half, that Vikings team. And he just, in that exact moment, he throws that bomb. And it's just taken down immediately to three and a half. And it's like Jess is, you just don't want to miss the number here. So if people are hearing this, grab it now. I think the three and a half will be gone by the end of Wednesday.

If we do hear Lamar is out or still not practice this week. Yep. Hey, it's us to Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. we created our own podcast called Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember.

I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas.

And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends.

Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

The French Open is one of the toughest tests. in tennis. And I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris, every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay. Jenchian win. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lina Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now, and I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the

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Denver at Philadelphia. So look, in the light of day, after the Eagles game against the Bucks, this line started moving down from 5.5 to 5 to 4.5. It got to four over the course of late Sunday night and Monday morning, moved back to four and a half, clearly some big Eagles bats from professionals on the Eagles at four. Like, A.J. Brown is very much emoting on social media. After the win, I know you saw this,

after the win on Sunday against a team that has historically given the Eagles a lot of trouble, he tweeted, if you're not welcomed, not listened to, quietly withdraw, don't make a scene, shrug your shoulders, and be on your way. And then, of course, Siriani, Nick Siriani, you know, mentioned it yesterday, said everything's good, there's no problem, you know, will they try to target A.J. Moore, that seems to be the pattern after he sort of makes cryptic comments. I'm a little surprised the line moved back in the Eagles direction though. Yeah, and the Eagles, the media just loves them, right?

Because if you're the laziest sports media, you can talk about the Eagles every day if you went for an hour because their fans will engage it. I mean, there's a reason, like, I'm an Eagles fan. There's no doubt we have some of the dumbest fans. I love it, though. Like they are so ride or die. It's the best. That's why I don't need to fight with people on the internet.

I have plenty of idiots from Philadelphia. on the internet, meming people, putting stupid stats that just make zero incoherent sense, but how great this team is and how great everything is. And, you know, AJ tweeting that out, yeah, he probably is saying something that we're all taking one way that means something totally different. That's AJ's personality. He's that type of guy. And I love AJ. Like as an Eagles fan, he's never, he's not going anywhere. We talked about it. If they traded him right now, I think it's like 70 million in dead cap. He's not going anywhere for that.

He's not going anywhere. Two, three years, no matter what. And if you're AJ and you're four and O and you're coming off a Super Bowl victory, sure, does he want more touches, I'm sure? But I'm telling you, AJ's not like people make him out to be. He's not T.O. He's not that much of a self-centered narcissist that he's really that mad about not getting touches. Getting back to this game, yeah, this is a Broncos number on a spot.

I tried to fame this Eagles teams. They're just something's not right with them yet, right? They're not comfortable in this new offense. They like I said, they should not cover that in a million different ways last week. Like that stat everyone's seen. The fact that they didn't complete a pass in the second half, you know, it was there for Baker to take it.

We're doing the same thing here, Chad, and we're betting on Bo Nix in a spot that we need Bo Nix to take it. Cover this number because Hertz is going to get his. Whether it's the first half, second half, they'll eventually get his Sequin, who hasn't done much this year, this seems like a nice spot for him to get right against a Denver team that,

yes, they're a good defense, but you saw when they played the Colts against a good running back like Jonathan Taylor, he was able to run the ball. And you saw in the Chargers game with Herbert, you can't push the ball downfield against this Denver team. So like we said, I knew the Denver was going to regress in this year.

I know they added guys in the offseason. Anytime a team finishes is the number one defense on football, they always regress because they have a harder schedule and teams play them differently it's really though down to bow nicks chat and that's what's so tough with this number i believe in it i think another line that i was made simon says because it was five and a half like chad said some books move this to three and a half they're still a three and a half a bunch of books shot right back up to four and a half so really interesting that uh what books are taking professional monies are moving at the four and a half and what professional money is holding this

at three and a half at other books so if you like the denver side which i do you do you I'd grab the four and a half, but if you look the ego side, you can find the three and a half still. And to me, I can't wait to hear the sharp calls because I'm interested to see if there's any professionals on this ego side where this just feels like such a sharp side taking this Denver side against an Eagles team that like we said, is not in rhythm offensively. Still have questions about their defense in some aspects. You saw the big playability they've given up this year. It's that number two corner. They just do not have a guy. Yeah.

And, you know, as an Eagles fan, I can't not be bitter about you. See what Isaiah Rogers is doing for that Vikings team. He's like the best corner of football. Howie didn't want to pay the guy like $6 million. And like, again, Howie, tons of smoke. He's the greatest up his ass. But what a bad miss by him. And yeah, this is going to be an interesting one, sharp calls.

I know we're going to cause about this one. I am telling the pros, call me up if you're taking the Eagles. I want to hear your pitch here because my only reason to back them is your fate and bow Nick. You're fading Bo Nix who struggled against playoff teams, especially all in the road. This technically is that exact spot to fade Bo Nix. But I can't get over this number and this Vigalbos team, just being overvalied, overrated by the general public right now.

And just a team that doesn't look in rhythm. So yeah, four and a half. Looking here at Hard Rock, they're still a plus four. So shop around, try to get the four and a half if you can on this Denver team. Here's what's worrying me about the Broncos. their pass rush is entirely reliant on the blitz at this point. And that's just not going to bother Jalen Hertz.

So if there's an opportunity to beat back what is currently the strength of the Broncos defense, in addition to fading bow nicks off of a massive win, this is sort of a one plus one could equal four and a half situation to me. There's red flags all over this thing. Yeah, maybe we'll be able to just avoid it altogether. But yeah, my initial read was like, man, that's going to be another time I'm like Denver.

All right. So I do want to talk about the giants and the saints because this is a crazy line, right? it opened giants plus two giants minus two and then we talked about it on Sunday night then it moved to uh uh saints about minus one and a half so we had a pretty decent swing on the saints it's another one where I'm a little annoyed. I wasn't aggressive with it on Sunday night when we talked about it.

But are we in an age where Jackson Dart after he was not amazing as a thrower? Has lost Malik neighbors? He's going on the road against a team that other than one game has been competitive in the Saints at home. The move makes sense to me, but we lost the window.

What is your hate for Jackson Dart? You did fine throwing the ball. I don't know what I can. say he did do great because he he wasn't that accurate he missed some throws like he just he looked like i thought he made big time throws in that i thought he was like a guy who was a really good runner do you know what i mean yeah it's an interesting line movement honestly at first i thought this was going to be russell wilson news i thought someone's going to come out the dart is banged up and russells come as guy because i'm like you i couldn't believe this had moved so many because

they did get up to two and a half like i got saints two and a half um there's a couple of books now now they're already showing minus two on the same side. So that is either Russell Wilson is playing or really, really, really respected big money as just hammering the same side. And they just keep moving this number. So my initial read was this is the same spot, this is the saint's side.

It was gonna be very easy to fade dart off that win at home now going on the road against the Saints team that, to me, this is where I wanna be with them. I wanna take them at home. I think they're a different team. at home they're scrappy at home I know the trends you're going back multiple years here they've not been good at home actually saying surprisingly this team though just this

year I feel like they've looked better at home early in the year here so yeah I'm pissed obviously like this was gonna be an easy play no doubt or it's gonna be in our contest especially at two and a half for the Saints it's moved a lot don't need to force it can be patient here if you do like the Saints side and you're worried about it keep going up to to two. You can grab it now. Like that's what I'm saying. The trend of the direction right now most of the books are at minus 112

minus 115 on the Saints and a couple have already popped the two. So to me that's where the professional money is moving this number. If you want to go Saints now, you can. On the flip side, if we can be patient, maybe this ends up as being a giant's number. If this gets the plus two and a half,

that gets very interesting because it is a guy who's never won a game in Spencer Rattler. And now he's a two and a half point favorite. I don't know. At some point, we'd have to come back. Right, no, I agree. Yeah, so I'm hoping this stays the Saints side,

because I'm already betting the Saints. I don't want to be trying to be the smartest guy in the room and have both sides here. I just want to stick on the Saints. So I'm hoping some professional way does come in on the Giant Side and keep this right at where it is right now, which is at one, one and a half. Another line I might not force us in,

because like Chad said, we've been burned by this number flipping on these sides here, but I can't help, but really like the Saints here that they're going to be super desperate as an O-O-Wort team going against a Giants team that just is not that good coming off a huge win now on the road. So yeah, interesting, interesting spot for the Saints team. Crazy spot. It's like I feel like it's going to haunt me all week that it moves so much and I missed it on Sunday night. Even though I flagged it on Sunday night, I was just slow to the draw and didn't pull the trigger.

like something was holding me back. Spencer Rattler, I get it. Yeah, it was Spencer Rattler. It was just holding me back. So now the number has moved too much and feels like a lost cause to me, unless we're going to bet the Giants. All right.

Dude. Dallas Cowboys at the New York Jets. They are the Dallas Cowboys, a freewheeling, all-American star kiss team. Jets currently. two and a half. Listen, you talked about it on Sunday night wanting to grab the Jets when it was one and a half because we were worried the Cowboys might get blown out and the number might move, you know, in a direction against us. It's now moved to two and a half because of all the

fireworks by the Cowboys against the Packers on offense. The way the juice is moving, this could actually get to three, especially after last night with the Jets, you know, basically just beating themselves from the opening drive and, you know, dominating the dolphins on the ground. Berlin Island getting to the two-inch mark and then fumbling as he's about to cross the goal line. And then the jet's just jetting like so many self-destructive penalties, bad personal files, bad hold, bad illegal motions, bad illegal formations, like you name it. Every time they were driving, they would kill themselves. So look, Dallas and Dak are legit offensively. No one is denying that.

I do think their defense is still terrible. The Jets were brutal. Like, I don't even like the Jets and it was hard to watch. Simon, the Jets could be at the lowest right now. The Cowboys could be at their highest right now. You know what I'm saying? Yeah, it's definitely, the Cowboys are definitely on the square side. And this is going to be just like them,

against the Bears. This will be a huge public side and it's not shocking. Like I said before that Bears game, Dak beats up on bad teams and the Bears proved to us in that game. They're not a bad team and they beat Dak in that match up. Can the Jets do the same chat?

I don't think so. So this is a game I'll be patient with. There's already a bunch of threes out there. So like the professionals, the public alike, they are lining up on this Cowboys team. Let them bet it up. If we get three and a half, amazing. that will be one of the easier backdoor covers of our life

because you saw a last name with Justin Fields like he'll do nothing for a half and then break out that one run and then totally flips their offense where now they have momentum. Now the defense is on their heels and a little tired. And that's what you have here where it's, Dallas is a bad team.

I don't know how they can stop the run, which is what the Jets love to do. They love that read option, which they were averaging and felt like nine yards per carry against Miami. me like Chad said that that fumble after a 10-minute drive just totally reset that whole game where instead of tying it all of a sudden or being up 7-3 they're all of a sudden down 10-0. And I just don't see the same here.

I think that's Jeff's team. Once again, they're an 0-14. That's why I love early year of trends because I'm excited to dive into these 0-14 trends that they're not only their own four at home as an underdog, guarantee they will be getting less than, I don't know, 30% of the bets. 30% of the money. No one's betting this. Like I just said, they're professionals, early money here. It's coming on those Cowboys side.

So I'll be patient. Like I said, I knew Sunday night I was probably going to end up on the side of this Jets team because it's just like, I just thought that was a Miami spot that they were probably going to roll there. And the public would be totally out on them after a prime time game. I did not know the Cowboys like Chad said, we're going to put up 40 on Green Bay

and totally shocked the world. So this is making me love the Jets even more. Just be patient. Grab the three if you want now. I am praying we get the home dog of three and a half. And, you know, speak in future contest lines, if this is three and a half auto play on that Jets number because that's way too much love for a Cowboys team

that they are bad. They don't be mistaken by these games in their offense. DAC is incredible. Dak needs things to break as when you saw that. They were dead until, you know, it was a 13 to 2 after they had that blocked thing. And then all these little things happen with Green Bay brought them back in the game.

So Chad's right. That's the fear where the Jets is, they're going to give them opportunities. This is a really bad team. They'll let Dallas in. We want the best number here with this Jets team before we're going to be betting it. Grab the three, wait for the three and a half if you need to.

Yeah, look, I'm seeing three start to pop literally as we're talking about this. So one of the reasons I wasn't making this, Chad loves, is because I wasn't seeing the threes yet. That's fair. Now you're telling me that you think it'll get the three and a half. It makes me want to hold off. I've got one other game.

You never know. know that there could be real professional resistance here but I'm just looking at all different websites right now of all the different books I can get for the different splits and it's just tons of early money every book right now is on this cowboy side so I think the books are in the right to keep moving it because it's like there's no resistance yet but why not let the public come in heavy on this cowboy's team and yeah two and a half I could be like I could be missing here this could be a good Cowboys number I'm overthinking it but I just I don't know how you can trust this Cowboys team on the road against such a desperate Jets team that just feels like a bad spot the back.

Well, look, this is like the ultimate high low, right? Yeah, it is. Like you want to sell the Cowboys right now. You want to buy the Jets right now. That is as classic professional better strategy. Cowboys 3 and 1 ATS, right? Cowboys didn't against the spread. Jets are 1 and 3.

The Jets in a total spiral. Like this is the moment for them to take a stand at home against America's team. Like forget about the metrics, just historically. the situation, we've been in the spot, we've been in the spot this year, you take the Jets. I'm trying, I'm not talking myself into making this Chats, Chad Loves, because I want to see if I can get a better number, but I, I 100% love the Jets here. Love them, love him, love him. Not Chad loves, but I do love him. Tennessee at Arizona, oh boy. So when I mentioned off the top of the show, this is the time of year where we've got these

really, really, really bad teams. And the models are going to light up. Take the Titans, take the Titans, take the Titans. And we got to make decisions about whether or not we're going to trust the models or trust our eyes. Arizona's eight and a half point favorite right now. It moved from eight and a half to nine and a half between Sunday night and today and then came back down to eight and a half. This stat is worth repeating. Titans are three and 18 against the spread since the start of 2024, the Brian Callahan era. We have not spent any time betting on the Titans, but we have not spent enough time fading, betting against the Titans. What does that say about us? Like, we know enough to avoid betting the bad team, but not enough to bet against

them. Are we victims of our inside info? Like, I don't know what to do here. I know that the side to bed as the Titans, I don't want to do that. Yeah. No, Titans are a team that when people say models are stupid and people overrate their models too much. This is the exact thing they're talking about because that's the issue with the Titans. Every week, any model is going to be giving them the, you know, extra two, three points sometimes because they're quote unquote undervalued. And that's what sucks about them where it's like they're not just because our computers

say they are the general public, that guy in the corner of the bar that just keeps yelling. how much the Titans suck and he's fading them every week he's been right he is right about his hate of this Titans team because they do suck I mean I told you I can't get over how good Cam Ward is and even even some of their own fan base starting to turn on a little bit which I just don't get it's like dude cam without him you guys would literally have zero pulse like he feels like he's making wild plays that just other guys can't make and um this is going to be a professional side this Titans team. I already know it. Arizona, even if we're just going the laziest metric, which is you look at their schedule this year, they started the season with the Saints.

They won 20 to 13 at the Saints. Then they came home and played the Panthers. They beat the Panthers, 27 to 22. Then they went to the 49ers. They lost 15 to 16. Then they just lost at home against the Seahawks to 20 to 23. It's pretty simple. They have not beat any team. by more than one possession, or they've not lost by one more possession. This is Arizona team. That's what Kyle. I feel like that sums up Kyler's career. He's going to be 8, 9, 9, and 8, and every game will come down to less than a touchdown,

him winning or losing. It's just who he is. So the professionals taking that number, and the Kyler trends is a favorite. He's terrible, right? Like I said, you only want to back Kyler as a dog. So I hate it. This almost got to 10, which is what I wanted. I was going to take Tennessee 810.

I'm looking now at a couple books, very sharp books. They're already at seven and a half. So these professionals are suckers. They're suckers for pain. They're coming on the Titans once again. Bet it down. Let me get Cardinals 7. I'd rather be it there or 7.5 than anywhere on the Titans.

So I hate this game. Happy to pass on it. Titans are the sharp side. No doubt the square side will be this Cardinals team. And that's where I'm going to end up. And like, again, we'll talk survivor. next week. Like this is, feels like the exact type of

spot me and Chad love back to Carlos when we lose somehow to this Titans team, but I can't avoid it. Everything is so wrong. You go back and watch Titans tape. Other than Jeffrey Simmons, that defense is a disaster. Arizona is going to be able to run the ball here at will if they went with Benson and

our only fear here is just Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray could screw us. I think that C. Alex game, that was the Kyler Murray game where he just doesn't play well enough. This is the type of game where you should bounce back, play well. So try not to be scared off of this one. Try not to be on this Tennessee team.

Whatever I can do, line to myself about back in this Cardinals team. I just, I can't get there. It's just, once again, I get it. It's a Titan spot. It's a Titans number. But I just, that team looks like it's totally checked out on the set coach right now. I will look. Look, you just mentioned Seattle in that game against the Cardinals.

Seattle's a three and a half point favorite against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I don't really get what's going on with this number. It opened at two and a half. We really liked the Bucks at two and a half on Sunday night. Now it's three and a half. And I'm trying to figure out what the move is. Is it injuries? Todd Bowles was cryptic about Bucky Irving and meeting an MRI.

If that's the case, then it's sort of, it helps me walk away from this Bucks team. Because Seattle, in every respect, we talked about the Rams being, one of those teams that is grading out really, really high. Seattle, at every metric, talking about passing the ball, talking about Sam Darnel, talking about handling pressure, talking about pressuring the quarterback, pressure in the quarterback without having a blitz. Like both these teams are getting a tremendous amount

of pressure on the quarterback. The Bucks getting the second most pressure. The Seahawks getting the seventh. But Tampa's blitz percentage is seventh highest. Seattle's second to last, which in this case is impressive because they're just not blitzing. They're getting pressure with their front four. Against the run, the Seattle team is as good as any of the bucks have seen. So I kind of get the move from two and a half to three to three and a half, especially with the injuries.

Yeah, I think it's just injuries. but once again, I think this Seattle team just is highly overrated right now. And this is a Bucks. Great, great number. If you just want to bet the under here, I also love the under. I think this is two really good defenses. The Bucks defense is being slept on, in my opinion. Just like the Seahawks were kind of being slept on coming in the year,

and people have kind of gained traction now on this team, that they see what I see. This is a really good defense with Sam Darnel. If he doesn't turn the ball over and he can do what he does in those fourth quarters, those insane drives, which one made him so special last year of the volleyball. Vikings. Seattle would be a really tough out this year. They'll be a good team. They could easily replace the 49ers of all the injuries they've had as the biggest threat to this Rams

team, this division. So statement game here for Seattle. They win this game. We'll earn a ton of respect for me. We'll definitely give them a big bump in my model. And I just, I love it. Like the Bucky Irving stuff sucks. Bucky is massive, massive weapon to this Bucks team. And the fact that he's got MRI on his, I think, I believe it's his knee. Yeah, he's not going to play, in my opinion. If you're getting MRI on Monday or Tuesday, the odds of you as a running back playing on a, you know, Sunday on a way game,

it just doesn't happen. So I'm with you with the pause here, but I'm looking at Hard Rock here in Jersey live. It is three and a half. I feel like a sucker once again, because this is a sucker number. Because obviously they need the money on the books. That's the only reason they moved at that.

And they know guys like me will come in and take it. So interesting early movement here. them to touch that three and a half and I'll take it here just in case bucky gets cleared baker gets cleared obviously godwin and mecca buca if they're all healthy i think this is going to be a tough test for the seahawks team they're being a little overvalued right now coming off such a big win on thursday so yeah i'm gonna i'm gonna be on that buck's side but like chad said with all the injuries i don't know if i'm gonna force it into our contest let alone making one of my favorite bets this week today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor hard rock bet

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In Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it. gambling problem call 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. Washington at the Los Angeles Chargers, Chargers are two and a half right now. I have no opinion on this game. No opinion. Like, I love Washington. I'm shocked you don't love a side here. Why?

If Danos comes back, this is a good matcher for him as a running quarterback. I think he can give major problems to his Chargers team and their defense the way they play. it really does come out of him and Terry though that's why like another game i could be patient on i mean there's very few threes out there hard rock was that three they did move to two and a half i'll be patient to me this will be all chargers money people are going to be hammering charges especially if they think it's going to be Herbert versus mariotta i like this matcher for Washington i like the matchup for washington's defense i mean as much hate as i want to get the bobby waggoner in coverage he is one of the best linebackers are reading when to blitz and

when to stay back. And, you know, I knew they gave up a ton of points and, you know, they couldn't not stop the run last week against Atlanta. That, to me, was just a really bad spot for Washington and they looked just defensive like they're totally lost. This would be a get right spot against a Chargers team that those are huge injuries, right? Losing all, I mean, their top three offensive lines around. And I don't love giving Herbert a top a really hard time, but he did have a ton of pressure in his face and he did not adjust well to it. So looking at this matchup, I feel like this will be a commander's side, especially if I can get the plus three right now, Daniels does get cleared.

This could move to a pick. Like I just think these are two, with the injuries to the Chargers right now, I just view these two very evenly matched teams. And I'd make the, with Daniels at home, I probably would make Washington a minus three, minus three and a half favorite over this Chargers team. So it's just strictly based off the injuries to Chargers team. We've seen a lot of teams here just get really, the whole team, it gets taken down on notch because of the injuries.

you lose your number one tackle and then your number two tackle. How can you not act like that isn't a huge deal to this team that literally they use first round picks on those guys. Their whole team was built around. I know we, again, we all love Herbert. They were built around that offense line.

That was Harbaugh's identity, right? They were going to bully you. And that was going to dominate you in the trenches. They're not that same team right now. They're not the same team we saw even against the Denver team. Like they just are totally different now with all the injuries they've had. So,

yeah, it's based on just the number. This is plus three right now. I think you should grab that Walthynchon based on my idea that I do think Daniels is going to play. That I do think Washington's playing a little coy, playing an extra safe with him last week, holding him out. I think he could have played last week. I agree with the decision, though. Hold him out for this game.

They could have stole that when it gets Atlanta. I have a tough time seeing them steal this one with Marriota. There is a possibility. Marriota's done well. They've moved the ball offensively, but obviously Chad's on the same page as me. We want Daniels, especially for a bet and plus three with this Washington team. Yeah, that's why I was sort of holding out. I didn't really have an opinion because because but just as you're saying this it's a two and a half mostly

I'm seeing one or two threes so if you're listening to this and you can get Washington three uh it feels like a good idea right now based on what Simon is saying I'm I'm definitely going to take Washington at three little taste just on the hope that Daniels is coming back yeah Detroit at Cincinnati Cincinnati right now is a 10 point underdog at home. It went from 8.5 to 9 and a half to 10 after last night's bangles bungle. We know the bangles are really bad. We know Jake Browning has not been effective. I do think there are some differences, though, between how bad the bangles looked and say how bad the Titans have been as comps, right? The lines to me are getting at least

two points of road inflation here. And they are also going to be missing DJ Reed. Could be out for the year. Terry and Arnold left the game with a shoulder injury, yet to be known if he's going to be playing. He's also not very good. So they're going to be down one of their starting quarterback, cornerbacks, who is very good.

The other one, we don't know if he's going to play, but imagine how bad the backup is. if the guy they keep starting is the one who keeps getting all the penalties. I think Amique Robertson's been great. I'm not discounting how good he's been for the Lions. But they're going to be in trouble in that secondary at their cornerback positions. Can't Jake Browning just fling it three or four times downfield to Jamar Chase to keep this game within 10? It's fair to have a question mark at the end of that statement you just said.

Can he chat? Can he? Because I don't know if he can, but. What are we supposed to do here? We're supposed to take the Bengals. I know, that's what I mean. It's like you're supposed to take the Bengals three, four years ago. Would have been a no-brainer smash play.

But we're in a new age. The public wins. The bookmakers don't adjust enough sometimes of these lines. And this to me feels like it should be 13. Like the Bengals are a bad team. Me and you have never trusted their head coach. We've always had questions about him. And I'd have to go back and look.

But it felt like at one point, T. Higgins, and Chase had four targets or five targets. And it's like, that's on him. You could say it's on Brownie, but it's like he's the one designing these plays here. So Chad's nailed it. It's like there's ways for the Bengals to attack this line defense succeed,

but I don't, I'm not putting my faith in. There's one book still out there at nine and a half on this line's team. I've taken any time I could get the number under 10, I've taken it on this line side. Even I knew it was gonna be super public. super chalky. I just don't know if the books have adjusted enough to this

Bangles team. So I'm looking forward to hearing if there's any professionals taking the Spangles side and what their actual reason is for it because this just feels a type of game where guys like me, professional guys who bet big money, why would I not put the lines into a bunch of parlays and their money lines

into a bunch of parlayas like I just did with Denver? It's like I just have no faith in this Bengals team. And coming into the year, I had major questions about it. As soon as they lost bro, it's like, okay, this is going to be a train wreck of a season. Like Chad said, normally back in the day, the Bengals bounced back here. They bounce back with the backup. We fade a lines team that have had multiple weeks now of huge wins and they should regress. But I just feel like the lines are rolling. Bengals just feel like everything's so bad.

I mean, just the coaching disparity here just feels like it's worth another point or two, that it should have been bumped up from eight and a half to nine and a half, ten. So, people can tell I'm just so out on this bangles team and I know it's probably the side I should be on but I'll take the line side here and I'll take the minus nine and a half if you can find it but like as chat said it's going up like there's a bunch of 10s 10 and a halfs out there so I mean hard rock right now is at 10 so if that's your only choice I guess you can be patient or take your money elsewhere but I because I like the nine and a half I just for the insurance purposes but man I in my model I have honestly is a bangles line I have it.

still eight and a half, but I think my model is wrong. I think this Bengals team is just a disaster. I am shocked to hear you so out on a team that is a double-digit dog at home, coming off a blowout with all world receivers and a team that's coming into Cincinnati that is missing their two starting cornerbacks potentially, at least one of them, that is coming off of two blowouts. Like the inflation is just so high in the lions right now and it's so low on, the Bengals, it's just astonishing to me to hear.

You almost sound defeated that you're taking the lines in this spot. You know my favorite trend, which hit with Dallas as a seven point dog against Green Bay, it's up to 21 and one now. The seven point dog through the first nine weeks of the season against the spread is 21 and one the last three, three years. So is that at home? Yes, at home. As a home dog of seven points or more through the first nine weeks of the season.

it hit again last week no doubt or with dallas they fit this mold but i just i i can't get over what i've watched where like chad's is right the matchups are there but if you go back and watch the all 22 of that game brownie is missing wide open guys that terrible yes like he is just totally terrible horrible so i don't know what to do with it it's it's a great spot a great trend like chad saying it's painful though but i'm on the other side there was a stat i read in a story on N.com this morning about the Bengals. The Bengals have been bad forever. Like, historically, they're a

terrible franchise. The past couple of weeks have been their worst combined weeks in the history of their franchise. That's how bad they've been the past two weeks. So think about how bad the Bengals have been. People used to wear paper bags over their faces for the Bengals. The past two weeks have been the worst they've ever had. That's how bad it's been. Yet I'm kind of interested. I'm just going to say it. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news.

What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts.

We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you

funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. Help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-heartedly. radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris, every match, every upset, and what it really

takes to win on clay. Jen she went. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French, me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lena Rubakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck.

Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,

embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we've got to do a prime time spotlight. We're doing something new. We know you guys want to bet Sunday night football.

Monday night football, they're island games, they're catnip for gamblers, they call out to us. Starting this week, we're putting a little spotlight on those games, even if they don't fit in as official plays because you want to bet them, we want to help you. Sunday night football. Brothers and sisters, the patriots are salvation. They are reviving the glory and the righteousness of 2001. Have you seen it? New England at Buffalo. Buffalo currently an eight-point favorite. It moved from seven and a half to eight.

This is one of those where I want to back Buffalo. Like, both of these defenses are terrible. Like, we can say anything we want about Vrable and this defense, you know, maybe getting better or, you know, look what they did against the Panthers or whatever. But their coverage defense is truly awful. Buffalo was 29 at the pants. Buffalo is 20th, paths are 29th, the Cardinal of PFF.

The Bills run defense, that's pro football focus. The Bills run defense is 29th. Pats are 22nd. Every week I ask this question, are we ready to commit to Drake May in a game that could potentially be a shootout at what is now a big number? Yeah, and how can you not be super excited

if you're a Patriot's fan about Drake, man? Right. He's been really, you know, played really well this season, is beat up on bad teams, which is you want your good quarterback to do. And I like this Patriots team is there's still six, seven players away from being actually good. Like they're... Well, that's nothing. Six or seven players. That's nothing. Yeah. It just feels like they have so many holes still. And like you said defensively, you know, it just feels like they have so much stuff to work through.

So I wanted to be on the bills. I could not believe, I'll have to check. Yeah, it's still 50, it was 15.5th, this total of this game. That was crazy. I know that Bill's defense is bad right now, and Drake may is moving the ball downfield. I could not believe when I saw that total. That is a classic Sunday night under bet for your boy, Simon, here.

So I'll be interesting to see if that number comes down, the professionals hit this under on the 50-and-a-half, because that just feels totally inflated because it's a Sunday night game. And the thing you said is so true. What's scaring us off is the bill's defense, man. It's really bad. And they got major problems. But I think this is by far the toughest defense this season that Drake Mays faced.

You expect them to give them some problems to be able to attack it. And, you know, you've seen Josh Allen, these exact games show up usually. Especially after last week that he just did not look right. And they still almost covered that game against the Saints, even on a bad day for Josh Allen. So, yeah, this is going to. be very public, very square this Patriot side. I think they'll be the one more big public dogs of the

week just because this Bail's defense has looked so bad. And in people's minds, this is going to be an open backdoor opportunity for Drake May. So I'll be patient. Wait. I mean, there's seven and a half right now at Hard Rock. Can we get the seven? Can this be bet down

more? Because to me it just feels like the money will just keep coming on this Patriots team just because of the hook with that seven and a half or the eight and a half. Like the public is going to like that number. So another game I do want to be on the bills, but it's Tuesday. I'll be patient,

hopefully get a better number. You and I could not be in more agreement on that game. Okay. I'm super glad about that. I'd like to know if we're an agreement on this last game. Monday night football, Kansas City visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are currently three and a half point underdogs.

Simon. Simon. Chad loves. the Jacksonville Jaguars. God damn it. Look, if it was two and a half, I'd probably say we'd take Mahomes. But it's getting harder and harder

to ignore the Jags. And not because, like, of Trevor Lawrence, who we both agree is probably the worst thing about this team right now. They're run blocking and their pass blocking, elite, amongst the top ranked by Pro Football Focus. the defense is not only creating multiple turnovers a game, which is, you know, part luck, so that could regress.

Fourth overall, to me, could a revived run game, and clearly their running game has been better with Travis Aten the past couple of weeks, could they control a little bit of the Trevor Lawrence volatility against a run defense that has ranked 30th? And then I think, like, emotionally, are they emboldened by what happened in San Francisco? That was a game that two weeks earlier against the Bengals, they throw away. They came out, they made the right plays, they forced the fumble for Brock Purdy to clinch it. Liam Cohn goes after Robert Sala, after the game, like, shows some fight, gives this team some personality. Plus, it's the right spot for the Jags.

you're getting the hook at home. Why did you say, oh, no, or God damn it, when I said, I love this? Because you love it, too. We're in the trust tree, right? Yeah. Did you bet the Chiefs last week against the Ravens? Did you put actual money on that Chiefs last week?

No. I didn't think you did. So you just don't trust this Chief's team. And even though I told you was my biggest bet, loved it, told you that it was the spot of spots for the Chiefs. You still dotted it all week. And even on Sunday, you didn't put a single dollar on it. Not a dollar.

I think you're just too out on the Chiefs team, and you're just totally blind spot here where it's Trevor Lawrence going against a Spag's defense. Isn't that the biggest red flag in the world to you that you just said he's been bad? I'm trying to go through his numbers here because I know they won that game.

I did think it was because Purdy just putting his team in bad positions, which Mahomes won't do. And you don't even at Trevor Lawrence. Again, it's a solid defense. I expected him to do bad. He was 21 to 31 for 174-yard. and one touchdown.

And again, not terrible, but he definitely wasn't the reason they beat that 49th team, right? It was the ETIN who was averaging 6.5 yards per carry. So I think you're right. Maybe I'm undervaluing this Jags offensive run scheme that has been so great at not making you realize how bad Trevor Lawrence is and kind of hiding his weaknesses.

And on the flip side, their defense, they do have a pretty good rush. They are better than they've been in the past defensively, but I can't help but worry about a Jags team that they beat the Panthers week one. They lost to a backup in week two against Cincinnati, barely beat Houston, 1710 on a fluky game. We both agree they probably shouldn't have won, and then beat a four-ninner team that is just decimated by injury. Now they're going against a chief's team that looked to me like they turned that page, that that was a springboard game where they had worthy back.

Their offense was clicking. You saw defensively they had. They got confidence back. So to me, it's just about the number. If you want to take the Jag to 3.5, I agree with you. Historically, going against Mahomes, this is a good number. I am just terrified of this spot. And I totally want to fade this Jaguars team.

That's 3 and 1. This just feels like Monday night game, Jags down 30 to 7 entering the third quarter, just total train wreck by Trevor Lawrence who threw three picks. Like, I cannot believe you love this game. You're out of your mind making that your favorite bet. I, well, look, I really wanted it to be the Jets. But like, you got a lock in the Jackson.

We have to play with our contest because you're a psycho. I'm a total psycho. I can't believe you didn't love the Chiefs last week. You're missing it. I know. And I, you know what? I honestly felt so sick to my stomach that whole Sunday afternoon. And I'm like, are you freaking kidding me?

Don't doubt the champs, man. The Chiefs. It's still the Chiefs. It's still got swag. Still got my home. Still got Andy. I get it. They look so bad.

But man, I can't believe we're back in Jags three and a half. But I see where you're coming from. This is a good number. Jags have been playing well. Maybe I'm being too disrespectful to them, but as soon as I saw this, I was like, oh my God, I'm getting the Chiefs right now. A couple of books haven't had three.

And I was like, that's the alarm bell is going off because Chad's right. The professionals are coming on this jack side. They're moving this number down to three. So again, I'm not trying to give you too much shit. I think your read is right here. I just, from my standpoint, I'm just like, oh my God, is this not a terrible spot?

The Jags history, they always get rolled in this game where we all start believing, start drinking the cool, and in come the chiefs, the same old chiefs who just, they just wear you out with that defense, man. They're just spags. It's just crazy how good.

Because they look so lost early in the year. It's crazy now four weeks in, it seems like they've turned it around. And like I said, it just, are we overrating this Jagswears team? We've played a very soft schedule to start the year. It looks like we're going to have our sharp versus square,

settled as well. All right, let's, let's sort of, but I'm telling you, they're a sharp side early here is that jackside. Oh, totally. It's the hook. It's the hook. It's totally the hook.

It's the hook. All right. So let's summarize here. I'm seeing Houston plus three and a half. That was Simon says. We're going to want to talk about that. Denver plus four and a half. We're going to want to get some intel.

I bet that'll be in sharp calls. You know, Norlands minus two was sort of a pass for me. but we can see how the line moves over the course of the week. Jets plus two and a half. It's moving to three. It's going to be hard to avoid that one. Tennessee plus eight and a half.

I don't think we want to talk about it. Then we got the Bucks plus three and a half you still like. We got the Washington plus three, which I think I agree with you. And then we got Jaxx plus three and a half, which clearly were on opposite sides. And I'm sure some other games will pop up.

up Carolina, minus one and a half is one more that I want to think about. I'm hoping that line will move a little bit more in our direction so we can get a better number on Carolina. But, hmm, spicy, spicy. I can't believe you called me out on that Chiefs game. How did you know? I just, because I just know you, where it's like, I still couldn't believe going back listening to our Sunday show that I somehow, I'm too nice Sunday mornings.

I'll be the first to admit that. I can't believe we didn't have that one in there. It's like, I told you all week that was in my favorite big bets. And somehow I got pushed out. I'm like, there's no way Chad bet that. Why did he talk me out of that shoes side? And I knew. I thought about it.

And I was like, once I got my sleep, I was like, I know Chad. Chad did not bet that she's game. Do you know what's so funny is I thought about it. And like, we've been doing the show long enough together. And we're genuinely good friends in real life. And so I know you well enough. Like when you talk about some games in the way you say frame them,

I know that it's, It's a game you really like. And I was thinking about this after I didn't bet it. I'm like, oh my God, I'm an idiot. Like, how did I not recognize how much you really loved this game and like not actually go all in on it? And I felt like an idiot. So it's funny to me that you just completely, completely called me out.

So nice job, BFF. Nice job. And I'm glad you were thinking about me and how I reacted to it also. So that means, you know, it's an equal relationship. All right. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in, plus our Survivor Pick, our Sharp versus Square, which we know what that's going to be. Brassball, so much more.

Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Potts, wherever you get your pots. Rate, review, subscribe, Louisville us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.

Love you. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? created our own podcast called Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.

We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite, unhumored me with Robert Smygel and friends. me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam, it's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm CJ Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Pointe, game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments.

If we didn't talk ever again, I was crying. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Mark keep coming to him. He's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs.

This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. There are times when the mind becomes a difficult place to live. This is David Eagleman with the. Inner Cosmos podcast. And for Mental Health Awareness Month, we'll talk with singer-songwriter Jewel about anxiety. I started living in my car and then my car got stolen. I was having panic attacks. I was agoraphobic. This is a month of deeply personal and honest conversations about what happens

when the brain goes off course. Listen to Inner Cosmos on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Humor. Guarant. in.