The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 7 Bets: Steelers-Browns, Eagles-Vikings, Raiders-Chiefs, Patriots-Titans, Commanders-Cowboys and more

Episode Date: October 15, 2025

After a sterling 4-1 week in their contest, NFL betting expert Chad Millman is joined by professional sports gambler Simon Hunter to discuss the latest NFL spreads for Week 7 and provide initial betting picks and predictions. They also offer their reactions to the coach Brian Callahan firing in Tennessee. They look at every matchup on the board to give their top NFL picks, including betting picks and predictions for Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, and Monday Night Football, plus a bonus over/under in the Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders game. Games covered from a gambling perspective include Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the San Francisco 49ers vs the Atlanta Falcons, the New York Giants vs the Denver Broncos and the LA Rams facing the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. We also get coverage of Raiders vs Chiefs, Steelers vs Browns, Colts vs Chargers, and every other game on the board. #Volume -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet 0:03:00 - Start 0:06:00 - Reaction to coach Brian Callahan news  0:08:00 - Steelers-Browns Thursday Night Football 0:10:30 - Rams-Jaguars in London 0:13:00 - Raiders-Chiefs 0:24:50 - Dolphins-Browns 0:31:30 - Saints-Bears 0:35:45 - Eagles-Vikings 0:41:30 - Panthers-Jets 0:48:00 - Patriots-Titans 0:52:10 - Colts-Chargers 0:50:00 - Giants-Broncos 1:01:30 - Packers-Cardinals  1:07:45 - Commanders-Cowboys  1:11:00 - Falcons-49ers SNF 1:15:45 - Bucs-Lions MNF 1:20:00 - Texans-Seahawks MNF Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. Help an Acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the ice. Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Joey Dardano, and on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives,

helping people in need with thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to me. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from a Hypocrite Wednesdays on the IHard. Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

This is Saigon, the story of my family and of the country that shaped us. From I Heart Podcast, Saigon. You don't think I'm serious about a free Vietnam? One city, a divided country, and the war that tore America apart. This is for Vietnam. They're pouring Patrick all over here. Freedom for Vietnam! There's a fire coming to this country, and it's going to burn out everything.

Listen to Saigon. on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman, and I am joined by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better. Simon Hunter.

Hello, so I'm in. Chad, how we doing? Dude, too much sports. Too much sports. Impossible. Late at night. I like Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday night, Sunday night, Sunday night, Monday night. I can't stay up this late.

I love it. But I don't, I have no life. So this is my life. So this is what I live for. So I saw a bunch of people complaining about NFL schedule. Like there's the England game. And then, you know, we got the two double headers on Monday. And it's just too much.

And I'm just like, I want it. I want more. I wish there was, after that game ended, I was like, I can go for another Pacific game right now. I wish there was a Seahawks 49ers game right now. So between the baseball, the football last night, had all four on the same TV. It's like, man, this is good stuff right now. I got to get up in the morning and got to exercise. I don't have time for staying up until midnight every day for the sports.

We're going to get to this Bears game because obviously I'm going to have strong opinions about it. But I want to talk about it when we actually talk about the Bears and the Saints because you've been loving the Saints all year. So I want to save that for that. conversation. I do want to pour one out, Simon, for Brian Callahan, the Titans head coach for all of 23 games. In those 23 games, he went 4 and 19 against the spread, including a historically bad 2 and 15 against the spread last year. He was somehow 2 and 4 this year against the spread. They covered their first game of the year Against the Broncos at 8 and 1 half

We actually bet on them They miraculously covered 10 days ago Again against the Cardinals I know that was a crushing blow For many of us Here's a pop quiz for you Simon Are you ready?

Yes sir On average Can you tell me The spread Average spread By which the Titans were underdogs In those 19 losses Put it at six.

Three and a half. Wow. That's a lot of respect. Closer than I expected, right? Can you tell me on average how many points per game the Titans lost those 19 games? 13? Dude, 13 and a half. That was amazing.

During his tenure, Brian Callahan not only was one of the worst coaches in the NFL and the worst coaches in the NFL. Yeah. And the worst coaches in the NFL. in history overall against the spread. He lost against the spread by an average of 10 points per game. That's why everyone kept saying, hey, why don't you just fade the Titans? You're going to make all the money because he was losing against the spread by an average of 10 points per game. They almost never made anyone betting against them sweat.

They were out of it in nearly every game they played. That's the end of an era. And that's, you know, too bad for us. There you go. Except that one game against the Cardinals where all of Survivordom suffered. I know. It's brutal. We went four and one last week

in our five favorite picks from the Sunday morning show. We won with the Chiefs, the Panthers, the Steelers, and the Raiders. Should be seeing the graphics. We lost with the Colts. Make sure you check out that Sunday a.m. show if you want the games that will be our official five. After we've had a chance to review everything,

the Tuesday show is where you will get our official up-to-date record. For the year, Simon, we are now 19 and 11 through six weeks. 30 games, five games a week against the spread for six weeks. We are 19 and 11. That's not bad. No, we'll take it. It's good start. This is our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate.

Don't forget you can get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube, subscribe, and like the video while you're at it. You can also subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple Pod, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. All right, here we go. Got an Amazon Prime game Thursday night football 8.15 p.m. Eastern. already too late for me. There's no way I'm staying up past half time for this game, but I will have a bet on this game. Did you see Simon Mike Tomlin's post-game pressure when he was asked about Joe Flacco being traded to the Bengals from the Cleveland Browns? Let's play the clip.

The artist was shocking to me. Andrew Barry must be a lot smarter than me or us because it doesn't make sense to me to trade the quarterback that you think enough of to make your open. a midday starter to a division opponent that's hurting that area. All right, look, he's mad, Mike Tomlin. He's really mad. Here are the facts, regardless of how mad he is, and I think this could be why he's mad. Mike Tomlin has a favorite of five or more on the road, 19 and 29.

We love a rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot. This ain't it. I love to love the Steelers. I don't. I'm not saying we saw enough of the Bengals in a competitive game that they can carry forward. I just think the Bengals are the right side at five and a half. That's fair.

Yeah, and like I always say, I basically pulling all night, I worked through the night to do all these games, and I skipped this game because I was just like, yeah, I just, I was like, what's the point? Like my view of it is I'm probably going to end up last minute on this Bengals side just because of the number. And like you said,

I just, Tomlin as a big favorite on the road, it's never appealing to me. And even now that you just gave that stat, that trend, that's a big deal to me. So, yeah, I just, I was going through the games, obviously, yesterday. And I just, as soon as I saw this one, it's like, don't even waste my time. It's like, I'll take a side. I already know I'm going to take the Bengals side. You know, this number feels inflated, like probably should be four, three and a half. But you never know we're going to get from Fleck.

So it's tough to have a ton of confidence in it where it's like he did look good in periods with that Bengals team last week against Green Bay, but I don't know. He's just, he's not the type of guy I'm going to trust, let alone have us put in the contest. So like I said, I was never going to waste time in this game. I'll end up on the Bengals, but with very, very small amount of confidence. Chad Millman is not afraid to make a pick, Simon. Okay, make one. I did. I made the Bengals the pick.

Okay, there we go. Guess what? On Sunday, I don't even know if you'll make it to this game. 9.30 a.m. Eastern, we're going to wake up and we're going to get Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. International Waters, the land that law forgot. I got to say, I hate these London games and I hate the Monday Night doubleheaders. I'm with the fans on this. I feel like they are they're not serving the sports fan.

They're not giving us what we want. No watch. The Monday Night Football double headers. It's not for you. I don't watch. There you go. Actually, I don't watch the England games. I think they're boring.

Like, I end up doing a million other things in that window so I can get ready for the 1 PM games. It's a, they're, at like 1245, I check in. I'm like, oh, look what happened in this game. Los Angeles Rams, Jacksonville Jaguars. These lines come down a little bit. It was plus three. We talked about it Sunday.

You leaned Jags on Sunday. I think the. Rams play down to the level of their opponent. They struggle against the Texans in week one. Had a hard time putting the Titans away in week two. Take the eagle to the wire and lose. Take the cult to the wire and win. Struggle and lose against a depleted Niners team.

Struggle against the depleted Ravens team. So should we assume the Jags are good and they're going to be good in this game? Pook is questionable. Not easy at all to recuperate when you've got to travel the way they're traveling you know stuff swells up on the plane and i'm shocked this number's already moved um i thought would hold just because there would be so much rams love and um yeah we're it's a weird season where teams are four and two and we're trying to pick them apart and that's just how it is in the nfl so like the rams are four and two yeah could they easily be six and oh agree they're a team that

you know, is really good. What we say, they have little weaknesses here and there or bad bounces here and there. And that's just, that's football. That's why I love it so much. The whole league is just in terminal it feels like, right? Like the worst teams, like the Giants, you think they just won a Super Bowl,

even though they don't even though winning record. And the Bills and Eagles fans, season's over. They're packing up. They're both four and two. So it's like, it is, it's like that meme of the two pitchers, the guy looking out the window and the guy looking at the mountain side. It's, it's how you. you perceive it right now. And this this Rams team, I think I'm in agreement with you that.

I just think it's early a year. They're still a little sloppy, sloppy enough that this Jags team could get them. Like this is a Jags line. Like a three shop around, there's still threes out there. I'd be on the Jaguars here because like Judd said, it's these international games are sloppy. They're dumb. A football head like me, I love it on the background. I love it, you know, running around all the sports books Sunday morning. The games are on. People are in the books watching. I don't know. I just love sports, obviously. I just love football so much. So it's

a shit show every time like Chad said. So I'm going to take the Jags who are used to it. We know the Rams are a better team. This is not a Trevor Lawrence, but this is honestly a bet on the flukiness, the randomness of London and the fact that we're catching points on a team that

honestly feels pretty equal to this Rams team right now. I was shocked that it was three. The movement makes sense professionally. this is going to be all Jags money. Like I honestly think this is going to be on the more public sides this week just because people are thinking just like me, they're going to see the trends,

the Jags win they cover when they go to London, and why would you take the minus three on this ramps team if you can get plus three in this jacks that. So it's going to be interesting to see if it holds a two and a half. If it's minus two and a half all week, that's going to make me feeling better about getting the three just because that's going to be such a key number I've seen this match up.

Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned Trevor Lawrence because he's still trash. But like honestly, you are always going to be betting on the Jags in spite of Trevor Lawrence. And you look at his stats. Every game, you look at his stats and you think, oh, pretty good. Like if you don't watch the games the way we do and you just sort of watch the game that's on your local broadcast and you root for your team and, you know, you're hearing about the

Jags every once in a while, you see, oh, Trevor Lawrence, he's doing okay. Trevor Lawrence was pressure 23 times against the Seahawks. He was sacked seven. You can blame the offensive line. You would be just wrong. Blame Trevor. His average time to throw in that game was 3.1 seconds. That was the third longest.

In the NFL, that's worst. Third worst of the week. His own line didn't blow it. Trevor did. He's just talented enough to be tantalizing, to be interesting, to think, oh, he can do it. I know. And then he's truly a hindrance to this team.

He really is. Like, if they had someone who was a little bit smarter, and I know that sounds nasty, like I'm calling them dumb, but what I really mean is, like, someone who reacted better to what was happening on the defensive side of the ball and moved quicker and understood the scheme of the offense better,

better, they would be a juggernaut. The way their defense is playing, the way their line is playing, they would be awesome. He is the problem on this team. But yeah, it's a jack's bet. Unfortunately, it's a Jags bet. Duval. Las Vegas Raiders, we loved them on Sunday.

They did us fine. At the Kansas City Chiefs, we loved him on Sunday night. Dude, that was just phenomenal. all flowers for you because we were on it from from the early part of last week and it continued to move in the chief's direction even though all the bets were coming on the lions and it kind was never even a sweat big move after the money night game chiefs were 10 and a half went to 11 went to 11 and a half even touched 12 before started to see some some buyback here I don't know man it's a bad spot for the chiefs like Mahomes as a favorite of more than three which he usually is

is just not going to be a winning bet against the spread I will tell you as a double-digit favorite in the division five and five so it's not it's not an auto play on the raiders like we would think it is yeah and it's tough for me with this chief's one because I'm I'm like so thankful to them now because that's probably, that was probably one of my bigger bets of the year than ATS-wise, the Chiefs last weekend. It's always scary, right? That exact spot, betting so heavy on a team against a juggernaut like Detroit is, but we joke all the time.

People, they moan, they complain about the Chiefs and their refs in primetime games, especially. You can make money off of people. You can either complain about it or profit off. Or you can cash. Right. So you have years and years of evidence, and you are the sucker because every time you're in Detroit, on that spot and it's just i try to explain to people at time it's like i don't know these things old

heads know these things and i'm luckily you know these guys who can tell me like hey this is the safe spot here this is there's a lot of signals here and the trends point to it so um this week like chad said there's no real trends here to favor the raiders other than like i feel like i take the raiders in this spot against the chiefs it doesn't matter if it was derrick car or whoever they've some reason they've always played really well against the chiefs and held up even when they were bad like bad defense will be all this stuff so patient patient patient i'm looking at hard rock live here in new jersey just went to 12 a couple books out there already moved at 12 and a half i mean who's going to be fighting us on this number the public is going to like last week nobody yeah last week i i talked about green

bag getting them down a six six and a half five and a half you can do the same with the chiefs this week a lot of a lot of people are going to be doing that i will stay away i will either be on the raiders of the number, maybe a little on the Raiders winning line. Just stinky, stinky game here. Dude, plug your nose. It stinks. The Raiders can easily get rolled. We all know that. They also can just have a meltdown type of game where the Chiefs are getting rice back. The vibes couldn't be higher. This is, I think, a 1 p.m. start. So that's 10 a.m. for both these teams kind of in a way, right? Like, that's, I know that Chiefs are on West Coast time, but it's right there. And I just, there's been fluky games at this exact spot. These

day games with these matchups between these two teams and the Raiders is a big dog. So not giving it out yet. I want people to be patient. Just seeing the way the number is going. Let's see if we can get 13. At 13, I'd feel comfortable taking this number on this Raiders team. At 11 and a half, there's no need, no need to rush it and just a dead number. Yeah.

And look, there are, like we always say, if you squint, you can see certain matchups that that might benefit. I can't. It's all negative. I'm trying to mean you hate Gino right now. We hate Gino. Well, look, I can't imagine this Gino match up with Spenic. We totally hate Gino, but here's, here's why like, other than the number, other than the number, other than the number, if you need something to hold on to, you need a little handrail on the roller coaster, the Chief's rush defense is just truly bad, worse in the NFL. If the, the news out of Las Vegas is true and that Pete Carroll is just getting super frustrated with Chip Kelly and the way he's calling these games and the minimal amount that he is putting Gino Smith in a position to throw the game

away and Gino is he just wants Ashton Genty to get the ball. If they can give the ball to Ashton Genty, will they be able to take advantage of a Chief's defense that cannot stop the run right now? Or flip side, Spag's going to know that they won't trust Gino and just stuff the box and make it impossible for them to run. That's sort of where it gets tricky and a little bit of a chess match. And we talk all the time, the Max Crosby effect. This is the dream match for him.

He's either got a backup tackle or a rookie tackle. He's banged up. So, Max, every time we bet the Raiders, we talk about it, but it really is the Max Crosby effect. He wins, he's been winning those bets on this Raiders team, honestly. Yeah, yeah. He's been trying to lose it for us. So he's just an absolute game record game changing.

This is another favorable matchup for him against an offensive line that wasn't exposed against Detroit and Hutchinson. But you saw there are there were chances there. Just Mahomes is getting the ball out of his hands in two seconds. Yep. Totally true. And this is one of those backdoor games where either Gino is going to win it because the backdoor is going to just barge through that back door. I'm praying for a 12-9 game. Or the back door is open.

and Gino's going to let them walk right in because he's going to throw pick six when they're down by like 10 with three minutes left. I wish I could have more confident this one because it's an insane number, but it's just the Gino. It's a crazy number. Watching Gino's film, it's so brutal right now.

It's terrible. It's truly terrible. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast?

Well, we didn't. invent it. We just contributed to a first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on

a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about

a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHeart Podcasts presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne. Yeah. This is my best friend, Janet.

Hey. And we have been joined at the Hipsons High School. Now a redacted amount of years later We're still joined at the hip Just a little bit bigger hips Wider This is a podcast we're recording it as we tailgate Our youth soccer games

In the back of my Honda Odyssey With all the snacks and drink Sidebar Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer Oh they had a bogo Well then you got it Do you want a white collar or something here? Just hit it

What are y'all doing? Microphones? Are you making a rap album? Oh I would Come on Can you pull? I would buy it Cuts through the defense like a hot A hot knife through sponge cake. That sounds delicious.

Oh, you're lucky. I'm not a drug addict. You're lucky I'm not an alcoholic. You are. I'm lucky I'm not a killer. I love this team, and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on. Oh.

Listen to soccer moms on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Deanna Maria Riva, actress, mother, lover, and a Gen X woman walking through life One hot flash and hormonal crying jag at a time. You ladies know what I mean. I'll bet you a paramedipausal chin here you do. So let's talk about it. Join me on my new podcast, How Hard Can It Be with the Anamanea Arriva,

where I call on my Gen X squads from Ohio to Hollywood as we navigate Midlife's most fantastic BS. All of a sudden, I'd had hanginess happening on my own. I was like, what the hell is that? I was married when I had her, so I didn't even consider how empty that nest was going to be. Mood swings, night sweats, fupas, sex drive. Wait, what sex?

Dating at 45. How hard can it be getting naked at 50 with the new guy? That one's kind of hard, no. Well, that's lighting. They say we can't polish a turd, but we're sure going to try. So let's get blunt with laughs, tears, or tears of laughter, and dive into it, unfiltered and unbothered and ask, how hard can it be?

I cannot believe I'm about to say this out loud in public. Listen to How Hard Can It Be with Diana Maria Riva as part of my Cultura Podcast Network available on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I can't believe I'm doing this. Miami at Cleveland, Cleveland minus two and a half. It jumped from one and a half to two and a half while we were talking on Sunday. It totally makes sense. This is a Browns game.

We said on Sunday, there are certain spots, you're going to bed on the Browns. The number one factor is when this defense is at home. We have, in theory, at least the more confident coach. We have the much, much better defense. We have a Miami offense that is bottom 10 in set, Miami offense, I'm sorry, that is bottom 10 in sack percentage, bottom 10 in sacks allowed, a rush defense that is as bad as Kansas.

cities in the most superficial metrics and the advanced metrics, it's like they go out of their way, not to stop the run, Simon. The sooner that it's like they're saying the sooner they don't stop the run, the sooner Mike McDaniel is going to get fired. There's no violence. They are the pacifists of defenses. The Cleveland Browns, minus two and a half for Chad's choice. Chas Joyce.

Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? What choice? We can't run from where we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? Well, Chad, everyone has a choice to make in life, and you've made yours. And it's the Cleveland Browns.

And what are we going to do? Three games that came down to Chad's choice. I will tell you the other ones. I can't wait. But one of them, it just might be on too late for me, and I can't abide by that. So it came down to this. And another game. And in the end, I just decided I was doing the research yesterday.

I'm like, I can't believe this is the game. But it is. I'll take it. I'm on it with you. The pros are on it too. We're seeing a couple of books already pop at three. So definitely grab it while you can. I mean, unfortunately, it is minus 120.

But I think it's worth paying that for this line at minus two and a half. And it's a tricky, tricky spot in a number. that I think reflects a lot where it's like the pros getting they see it the general public won't I think the majority of them will come in on Miami because like you just said it's a brown team that just looked very putrid these last couple weeks many are calling for Chador to get his time like what did Dylan Garibald done to deserve these continuous starts and this is the Stavansky he don't win this with this kid how does ownership not make a change right I mean, how many chances can you give this guy? I know they gave him, they've gave him leeway because it wasn't his Watson, was not his. That was not on him, but what he's doing right now is Adore and Gabriel, it's bizarre a world. Like, if you openly moved flacko, you're admitting and you're punting on the season. If Gabriel's not doing it, especially in this matchup against this defense, you have to make a QB change.

So I agree with it. I like that how desperate this Brown team's going to be. Defensively, this is a great spot. Like you said, I think offensively with Gabriel, this has to. to be the spot for him to show up. This is a bad secretary. I mean, we've talked all year about it. I didn't envision their D-line being as bad as it's been this Miami team. They've been featured as well. So come on. You have to be able to move the ball here. You got a running back that can run it. You need a quarterback and push it downfield with Judy. Tillman, they have pieces

that can move it downfield with us. So I like this play chat. It's really too about the number. Like I just said, hopefully people can hear this and get this minus two and a half to me. That's what I think is the right choice for you here. It's a good pick here on. Tuesday. So I guess what I don't understand is I don't really blame Stefanski for these moves. Like, A, they got rid of Baker. That wasn't his idea. They traded for Deshawn. That wasn't his idea. They've now gone all in on flacco. That's not his fault. Like Mike Tomlin called out Andrew Barry. Why is it like, Stefansky has done the best he can do with a terrible situation. And he keeps getting quarterbacks who are not close to replacement level. And so why should he get fired? Why isn't the

GM getting fired? It's fair. It's all fair. But at the same time, it's he had, if he, if he is just a puppet, then yeah, you're right. But he has to be making a decision at this point. You can't be letting, he can't be still getting railroaded by a GM that's failed to a miserably like you just said in so many different ways. I just don't believe that. I think a lot of this is the fan's guy. I just never thought he likes Shador. Think that, like you said, I think the GM made that pick or the owner did. And he's never liked it. Where at this point, you just at least have to see, put him out there, let him fail.

And no one will ask again. Someone like me will not care. I just think Shador is a gamer. And it's like right now, Dylan Gabriel, at 511, not athletic, doesn't have a big arm. What are we doing here? This guy will never be a pro in this league. It doesn't. You need to at least do one thing great in football in five categories.

He is over five in all the categories. So I'm just, I'm not seeing it. We're Shador. We've at least seen the armed talent and some of the athleticism. So that's just my push against the fansk at this point. It's just, this to me is the dream matchup. If at half you have three to zero points, you must make a QB change. Ownership, I believe, will make a call at that point.

It's just too good of a matchup not to put up points against Miami, like you said. It's a good number, good spot for the Browns defensively. Offense needs to show up against his bad Miami defense. That I agree with. weather. Yes. That would be nice, right? That'd be nice. A little slop. Listen, I agree with you on Shadour and Stafansky. If he's not playing Stafansky, that's not the GM. That's just, that's just DeFansky being stubborn and he's not doing any better with Dylan Gabriel. That, you know, back in the corporate world, we used to call that a pocket veto, right? Like the,

the big boss would come in over the top and say, you got to bring this person in. I want you to try to develop this person. And then they would never do anything with the person, just pocket veto and that's what that will begin to feel like with should dore so let's see if that becomes a factor with stefansky and the browns uh in the coming weeks let's get to it man new orleans saints at chicago bears the bears are five point favorites listen someone like what they saw last night this line actually moved from four and a half to five to five and a half at a lot of places right now after the bears last second win over the commanders let me just set the scene for a second I was so frustrated with the Bears last night.

I actually forgot I had bet the Bears a plus four and a half. And because Caleb Williams, I don't think Ben Johnson was putting Caleb Williams in spots to succeed. He was calling plays that third and one call, that fourth and one call. Like, Caleb is not the guy who you can give a play call where the first read isn't going to be available immediately. He's just, he doesn't play that way. Like he gets in his head, he runs backward, he gets caught in the, in the rush. That's just not his game. It's also not his game to throw intermediate passes accurately on third and long.

That's not how you're going to win games with Caleb Williams. I thought the Bears did a great job last night. Their defense was awesome, except for three miscues by Dennis Allen, where he wasn't rushing the passer, with more than three or four when he should have been. the penalties were ridiculous. Some tickey, some just sloppy and undisciplined. I'm really glad my phone died

before the end of the first half, so I got to avoid all the angry emotional texts from all my buddies. I didn't get anything charged again until the end of the game. But man, it was a roller coaster. A roller coaster is a better,

a roller coaster is a fan. Yeah, you're too tough. You should be elated how good your team is. The fact of you're 3 and 2, I mean, is insane. You should not be 3 and 2. Your mind is 15 point differential. Has to be the first team in NFL history to win back-to-back road games, 25 to 24.

Just bizarre a world type of stat that is. I don't know. You're just not a good team, but you have a good coach, a quarterback that can make plays, and you're getting bounces going your way. So I'd be really excited as a Bears team. like you're i see the path i see the future there's going to be a lot of growing pains like i said calibs learning a new offense a very complex offense this is year one this is a five-year plan so

you just won wins you want to see a guy that can win like justin fields cannot win justin fields is never going to win these games you guys have been winning that's why you got a guy like caleb williams who doesn't have those scars those wounds he can win these games and not overthinking even if he's not doing much like that swift that's that at the end there. That was really why I love your head coach where it's like he knows his run blocking scheme. He saved a couple plays they knew it was going to work against Washington. And it did. And they got those first where it's like, sure, did you guys get lucky in the fumble? Yes. Like it's someone that had the money line on this Bears team. I saw a dead a thousand

miles away where it's like, oh, this is going to land on five. The professionals were right for hammering this in the four and a half. Because like we said, we didn't understand the movement. And they got unlucky. We got lucky. The bounces went our way. That's why we love betting. That's the best. Betting these ugly dogs.

Got away with one for sure in that Bears game. So I get your hesitation on them. But, you know, right now they're overvalued. But like we said, they're a team that knows how to win right now, playing against a team that doesn't know how to win and a quarterback that doesn't know what it wins. So five and a half, I've seen might be on the Saints. Am I going to be as big into them as I want? was last week. No, this is just playing the number against what I think is an ever-valued Bears team.

But yeah, the Bears, but the way your guys' defenses, especially against the run, who you do we catch in minus five and a half against anybody, let alone a team that can run the ball like the Saints can. So just a bad number feels like. And yeah, like you said, the early movement was on the Bears, professional when he's with the Bears. So that's why I'm just going to wait this one out. I'll take a position on the Saints case it goes down for five and a half. But, But no, not a real big bet yet for me on this one. I just, I can't believe the line movement, to be honest with you. All right.

We're going to go from an ascendant team that makes their fan base proud, except for me, to a championship caliber team that is frustrating their fan base to no end. And maybe the single biggest cause for Simon Hunter's depression. Philadelphia at Minnesota, Minnesota is a two and a half point underdog. No, it's all Phillies. I've never been happier in life, honestly. Life is truly never been better. I wish I care more about the Eagles.

Like, I try to have Giants fans texting me after that game because literally every guy I worked with the Jersey Shore the TV show. They were Giants fans. They were all from Seaside Heights, Seaside Park, all North Jersey guys. And I literally couldn't stop thinking them. I said, you guys watched that Sequan dog? I really can't thank you enough for giving us Sequin Barclay. Greatest season, potentially of my life.

Guy set the all-time record at 2,500 rushing yards or all-purpose yards. And we've got a Super Bowl. So I think I'm still just numb to it where it's like, yeah, I want the Eagles to be better. They're four and two at top of the division. It's Eagles fans are just too, we're spoiled. So like, yeah, how he's made bad decisions. We've got guys retiring right now. It's all a negative on this Eagles team.

So my Simon says bet this week is the Minnesota. Vikings plus two and a half. It's Simon says, presented by hard rock bet. Call me Simon. What do you want? I want to play a game. What kind of game? Simon says.

A line that I think is going to be moving. I think this is going to come down. Could easily see it get down to one and a half. Eagles have a ton of injuries that are unknown right now. So Jalen Carter would be a big deal. I think he's going to play. I don't think Quinn Young Mitchell is going to play, which that to me is the biggest.

Yeah. Like, KOC is a genius attacking team's weaknesses. He was already excited about the number two corner of the Eagles. Now he can be excited about the number one or number two. I mean, we'll see what they do about Cooper, Gene, but like, as much as I love the kid, him 101 with Jefferson or Addison, that's not where you want Cooper to Zerine playing. You want him as the second guy coming down or the guy covering the middle of the field,

not the guy on the outside against two speedsters. So it's a bad matchup, bad number. This is still an Eagles team that's being priced as if they didn't have a ton of problems. And I think the public will better. Why would the public be backing Carson Wentz? You know, not that he hasn't looked bad. He hasn't looked good. But I just think people are just not thinking, they're thinking this is a bounce back shot for this Eagles team where it feels like a Minnesota spot offensively and defensively.

the problems the equals have up front, the blocking, the injuries, all of it. I don't know if this is the kind of game you get right again. So, Sierra Annie saying all the right stuff. He said they've used the extra time to try to fix this offense. You're lying to yourself, you think two to three days of extra time because they played on the Thursday is going to fix this offense. I just think they need to get guys back healthy on the offensive line. So, yeah, it pains me to do.

I got this line at a pick. It's two and a half. That's a key number. I'm going to give that out every time. So Simon says, give me the plus two and a half from this Vikings team. If you had a choice right now, would you rather have Nick Siriani or Kevin O'Connell as your head coach? I can't turn my back on a guy that gave me a super boring. I'm telling you, Chad.

You'll see. You'll get one. Not that's in the 1980s. It's the high of highs. It's like, I wish I was more upset about this ego season, but it's like I'm still living in the past. I'm not going to lie. Like, I watched that Sequan Doc, and then I literally rewatch the 30-minute Super Bowl, little mini version. So it's like, it's, Siriani did it.

I got to give the guy credit. I hated him. Thought he was an idiot, a buffoon. Whatever he does, it works. So he's not hiring his best friends to be the OC. Not great idea. But we'll see what happens going forward. He, to me, is the right man for the job.

KOC couldn't even beat the Giants at home in the playoffs. That's what I'll say about him. You're so funny. It's like Eagles fans, the number of Eagles fans I know who have rewatched the Super Bowl, have watched the Sequeen Dock, have done everything, like have just relived and relived and relived and relived the glory. Look, I wanted to talk. I literally have a VHS of like the Bears NFL films, 1985, hour long. you know, celebration of their season.

You'll always have Devin Hester Super Bowl return. And I was there for that. Yeah, I've watched that clip a million times. I'm not having a bear's fan. It was amazing. Totally amazing. It's the last time with the flashes. That's why I love it so much.

That's right. That's totally, oh, my God. Before iPhones. You're so right. Yeah. That's 100% accurate. By the way, Darren Ravell gave me that VHS tape. It was a gift.

What a guy. You know? All right, look, the basic stats are true, though. We don't know if Jalen Carter is going to play. We don't know if Quinnian Mitchell is going to play. But either way, this is a defense that is 21st in the league, EPA per play when they are playing. So I think you're right about how it's being priced.

Value is on the Vikings here. Is there a value, Simon, on the New York Jets as two point underdogs, hosting the Carolina Panthers? God. Winless teams, this is from killer sports, winless teams as home dogs week seven or later since 1989, 48 and 39 against the spread. But look, I was hoping that was gonna be better. This is a trend, the law of averages, regression to the mean, whatever we wanna call it

in terms of this can't keep happening is the only reason to bet on the New York just this week. It's not even like sometimes when you're making a bet in situations like this a gross bad bet it's like you have to believe in the unseen this is i think we have to disbelieve what we have seen because what we have seen is so bad the coaching miscues the playing miscues the strategic miscues the the utter incompetence this isn't a team that's sort of been unlucky this is a team that is truly horrendous and lacks any kind of skilled play at just about every position. So we know we're getting the Panthers at a high.

We know we're getting the Jets on a low. We've loved the Panthers the past couple of weeks. How are we betting on the New York Jets? How are we doing it? How are we asking people to do it? This is sharper square. Obviously, the square side is easily the Panthers, the sharp dots going to be. Of course.

it is. It is a game where if you've been betting with us on these ugly dogs, you do have to hold your nose, unfortunately, and take the Jets, but you can be patient. Like we said, the number is moving. I believe Garrett Wilson might get put on IR or something. He might miss like a couple weeks. They're saying he might

have a real injury. So, you know, he's their best weapon. This should keep moving up. We should keep getting a better number. But confidence-wise, it's not there for me. But like Chad said,

trying to be smart, trying to play the numbers. And I've talked about this whole Bryce Young home thing. And I got to stick to it because I've like staked my name to it now that he is a different, they are a different team, a different offense on the road. How do the Jets not get one here? But my God, do I hate this team? Like I'm trying to lie to myself, be like, well, maybe I'll have the confidence by Sunday to get this one in the contest. I just don't know if I'll get there because I just, they got, they got one last week.

That should have been their win. They're so poor they coached. They couldn't steal that one. So there's no doubt this game could, things won't bounce their way like I did last week, right? Everything was going their way last week and they still couldn't win that game outright. So get us up to two and a half.

I'll have more confidence. Get me up to three. I'll really be flying. But at plus two, we are right now hard rock, I'll throw a little taste on it, but I'm not going to be too aggressive with it. No one's betting the jets. It's only, it's only yes.

That's what I'm saying. This is going to be the sharp side. The square side, no doubt, would be this Panthers team, which, you know, as great as that win was last week, it's, it's, again, it's not that this Panthers team feels incredibly fluky at three and three, but you see what you need that team offensively to be to hold up against with their defense. So we'll see. Because again, Justin Fields is not the best passer either, but it's like, come on, Fields.

This is a good match for you at home. You got to show up here, especially after you laid such a huge egg, last week. So yeah, it's a gross one. And the more I talk about, the more sick I get thinking about taking this jet side, but you got to do it. You have been an unnatural allegiance to losers is not like you. Everyone on the Jets looks disoriented. Oh, my God. Yeah. That's how we're going to be on Sunday if we bet this game. They're making Aaron Rogers look good. Like there's a clip flying around now Rogers on the Pat McAvey show like after the fact and being like, why did you guys even fly me out here if you're just going to tell me you're going a different direction in like a minute

conversation just how weird his whole interaction was with Aaron Glenn like the guy was kind of a cocky asshole to a guy like Rogers just very bizarre the whole thing so just just a train wreck and we're betting it we're leaning into it just this is what we do today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor hard rock bet the penance on the line the lights are brighter the pressure is higher and one swing can change everything. You can be part of every pitch, every moment on Hard Rock Bet. New customers can place a $5 bet. And if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but also $150 in extra bonus bets.

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with their new coach, interim coach, Mike McCoy, formerly of the San Diego Chargers in the mid-teens. The Tennessee Titans are seven-point underdogs. I think on Sunday night, this game was at six and a half, and you and I were both pretty excited about the Patriots just because of Vrabil. We thought this was a Vrabble game.

Obviously, a revenge. game for Vrable who no longer gets to coach against the guy who took his place less than 23 games ago. But I think the coaching change actually changes everything because we do have the dead cat bounce in effect, which for those who don't know, it's getting that team that's pretty much a dead but gets a little bit of a bounce when they get a new coach can it overtake the revenge spot is the dead cat bounce effect stronger than the revenge spot effect simon i hate it yeah because you're right we were i was legit excited to be on the patriots the second week and i was at the point where i was like even if it was minus seven and a half i'd still try to dig in and take this game

because this is the type of game where Rable will never let off the gas. If he finds any type of advantage, if Drake May is cruising or they find a running game, which they haven't had all year, he will punish this Tennessee team and that ownership. Now, Chad just nailed it. Like Tennessee, you expect the spot for them to bounce back here. So I don't know what to do.

I know it's the, obviously, the sharp side is going to be Tennessee. A hundred percent. It's a Tennessee. To me, it's a Tennessee player or nothing. I'm going to give you a stat here, okay? Other than the dead cat bounce, teams playing their third straight road game coming off a win and a cover,

like the New England Patriots, 34% against the spread since 1989. And they got a big number to cover. Seven is just a big number. And it's two straight, highly emotional, last minute wins. Like, it wasn't like they rolled and it was easy in both games. It was very intense, high pressure, high leverage, situations that's a great stat uh the four letter word company is the only book right now with a

seven and a half you got to grab that if you can right yeah you got to grab tennessee plus seven and a half you can but man just just like the jets chad's nail on it where it's like this is sickening but we got to do it i mean i don't want to say what my model number is because people are going to talk shit to me because it's this number is so off compared to it where it's like i I have way too much overratedness, respect for this Tennessee. I was just going to fade it anyway. It's like my dumb ass computer doesn't know. This guy Callahan can't coach himself out of a box.

This man is an idiot. But like you said, maybe they got rid of it. This is the bounce back spot. I'm not going to agree with Chad here, but man, this is another sickening spot this week. A lot of really sickening bet. Yeah. Compared to last week, we were all chalk, which was fun. This week, it's all ugly, ugly, ugly home dogs.

It's so it's really, it's almost like we're going back to 2019. I mean, I wouldn't mind a bad week, Chad. I want to cut my hair and I can't cut it because we keep winning. I can't change. Yeah, so it's like, it wouldn't be the worst going to go two and three, but I obviously, I want to win. You know, it's funny last night, my phone died in the middle of that Bears game and I finally had enough juice. You know, I didn't feel like I want to get my computer or anything. I finally had enough juice to start texting again at the end.

end but I like I there were you know a hundred text messages with my friends about the bears and I didn't want to start jumping back in because I didn't want to jinx it because they were they were driving right when I were able when I got some juice back I'm like I'm not I'm not jumping in until this is over it's killing me I want to engage I want to talk I want to be excited I'm just going to ignore it because I don't want to be the one to fuck this up because it could have been so I agree I don't think you can ever get your hair cut again because I think we just got to keep winning. If we keep winning. Indianapolis at the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Chargers are one and a half point favorites. You like the Chargers on Sunday when it was won. It's moved in that direction. Like, I don't have a strong opinion on this game. I think, you know, if anything, it's just the Colts are overrated right now. So that's why you're getting value on the Chargers. We're not seeing anything in the Chargers that we like. their offensive line is just terrible, their defense is struggling, everything about them looks

like they are a mediocre team, and the Colts look great. So it's another one. We're just playing a number here. I don't have a ton to say on this game, to be honest. Like, it's not a game I'm targeting. Oh, my God. You'll come around on it. This is almost Simon says.

Seriously? Almost Simon says. Yeah, like early, early in the week, but this is going to be the bigger. sharper square game where the public is going to be all over this Colts team for good reason we've talked we we love the Colts too they're 5 and 1 but let's really dive into it like this is a team that is playing at a really high level but defensively I think there is a good match up here for the Chargers team and that's going against this Colts secondary that can be passed on and you know hopefully Johnson's back for that offense

because him, Ladd, and Keenan Allen, that's a potent three. That's a really, really solid three. And, you know, by Dell, a no name, a guy they cut, you know, the charges brought back to be the running back against Miami. It looked good. It looked fresh, good legs, running the ball. Obviously, Colts run defense is better than Miami's run defense. But at least there is someone to turn to an hand the ball off to that can push the ball.

I'm not trying to shut on Hampton, but there was weeks there where he would just run to the back of his guys in the line. He just looked like a rookie trying to find. his feet out there where I doesn't feel the same. But it really is just about this Colts defense that I just don't trust them. I think this is a good match for this Chargers team. And you're asking a lot of Daniel Jones. You're asking him to keep being an above average quarterback.

And we're into week seven here. So through all these weeks, like I said, he didn't play that great last week. Someone posted some crazy film. He was like nine for nine against the pressure. Like just out of this world, really, really well playing really high level right now, Daniel Jones. So that's why I'm not making it time.

It says I'm not banging the table here yet, but I can just tell you from talking to pros early this week, this is going to be a pro side, this charter side. Colts are due for a letdown. They're 5 and 1. It could easily be 6 and 0. We've talked about that Rams game, how fluky a game that was.

This is just the way the NFL is, right? Like you're not going 15 and 1. And like a good year for this Colts team would be 11 and 5. Like they're going to drop some here. So this just feels like a spot with the Chargers that, especially someone that lost a ton of money betting them last week, I don't want to be on the Chargers either. I like their defense, their offense.

Like you said, there's still a bunch of questions, but my model has it at minus three. It's still minus one, minus one and a half in most books. I'm going to grab that because I know the pros will bet it up to two. I will be shocked by time people hearing this. A couple of books don't pop to two because I know some really respected money that are going to come in on the Chargers today. So it's an interesting line.

And I'm excited to see what the public does with it. Because if it's like that Chiefs game where it was like 80% of the money was on a road dog again, I'll probably have to take a large position on the Chargers and hate myself while doing it. But it's like I can't avoid those spots in those situations. The public forces my hand. don't know what they're doing and they're giving me a good number to bet into the chargers have really hurt our feelings yeah two of the past three weeks you know we've been on a tear honestly and when we've lost it's been whether we were in the contest or not it's been because of

the chargers think that which is excruciating to think about to think that we're going back to the well on just and herbert uh i guess uh i i i i guess uh I guess okay. I know. It's gross. Okay. Can I interest you? You said we're not doing anything sort of favorites.

Chargers a little bit. I'd like to interest you in the Denver Broncos who have the visiting New York Giants and the Broncos are seven point home favorites. And believe it or not, I think there's. undervalued. I like the Broncos here. I like playing favorites that are defined as good teams, which the Broncos are. They got a winning record through six weeks. They barely won last week. They're going against a team that just won big. That is a historically winning proposition. and I think any sort of advantages we think the Giants have, whether it's Jackson Dart and his mobility or Camp Scataboo

and his dynamic nature, I think a lot of the excitement that the Giants have shown that people have been enthusiastic about. They've won two games at home. They got crushed on the road. They won against a depleted team in the charge They won against a struggling defense in the Eagles. They are not going against a struggling defense in the Broncos.

They are going against a legit, we are fully healthy. We are awesome. We can do whatever we want, especially against a rookie defense. Nick Minito, Nick Benito could be defensive player of the year. Pastertane was defensive player of the year. I wanted to find a way to not back a seven point home favorite with Bo Knicks as the quarterback, couldn't do it. It's the Broncos.

Yeah, I took Sunday night. It's like a piece of the Giants because they were plus seven and a half. I thought that was a good number. You might get a six and a half, Chad. There's a couple out there. So yeah, yeah, I know. This could get bit bad down to a spot you like it. My fear of it is it's just, which has been my issue with Denver all year is the is Bo Nex.

Like the numbers aren't good. He's inconsistent. His feet, everything he's done, like his footwork has regressed from last year. There's just, that's the big negative part where you're right. Like this Denver defense every week can win them and keep them in games. They're just dominant, you know, nine sacks last week. A lot of those are on just the fields, but it's also that's how good they are, where it's like they're just, we talked about it.

You know, having a shutdown corner, you can bring five because you have a guy that you'll need a double ever. you always can just have the one-on-one shutdown. So can't hit your play. I won't disagree with it yet because it's, I really, my only stance on the Giants was because of the number at the seven and a half. At six and a half, even at seven, I could be talking to this Denver team.

It is a nice spot against this young team that you would normally think extended time like they had since Thursday is good for a team. For someone like them, that's super immature and doesn't know how to handle winning, I agree. Probably not the best. I can't imagine how they handled those extra days and how they've handled practice this week compared to a Denver team that has to feel like they lost.

And I think Sean Payton treated it that way in the locker room. It wasn't smoked cigars riding around London on their bus. It was kind of a lot of yelling. We got lucky. We need to steal that one. Let's get the hell out of and get back to Denver type of game. So I'm with you. You don't expect Denver to a letdown after an international game

like we saw with Cleveland last week. They're just not the same team. So I can get there if it gets six and a half. It's seven. I'm indifferent, as we say here right now. Yeah, I actually, in my notes, I'm like, I'm waiting until six and a half. I would take the seven if I feel like it's not going to get there. If I see the juice start to move in a direction that shows it might go up to seven and a half again.

But I really like the Broncos here. I just do. I think it's a coaching mismatch. I think it's a situational match. I think it's a scheme mismatch. match. Bo Nix has generally played better against bad teams. This is a bad team. Last week set aside, right? Teams coming off. Teams coming off an upset win is a home dog of more than four points. That is the New York football Giants, 43% against the spread since 1989. Killer sports.

How does that make you feel better? No, but sounds right. Sounds right. Green Bay, the perpetually disappointing Green Bay Packers against the perpetually disappointing Arizona Cardinals who either lose when we need them to cover, they cover when we need them to not cover. I don't know if Kyler Murray is going to play. I don't know if Marvin Harrison is going to play. I don't know if the backup running back,

who became their starting running back, who dropped the ball at the end zone against the Titans is going to be playing. Hard game to handicap because we just don't know who the players are going to be. Yeah, I guess I'll avoid it. Honestly, I wanted to be on Green Bay. This is a good number for Green Bay.

But I'm with you. There's too much unknown for me to bet into this at this point. Surprisingly, I would feel better, honestly, if it was Kyler Murray. But we've talked about Kylie Murray as a dog. It's the only time to back them. Super profitable. I just can't separate my hate probably from this Arizona team. and the Green Bay team at some point

they are going to be undervalued by the general public, right? They just, they haven't put together a couple weeks now. They have not put together enough for me to be confident enough to bet in them as a big favorite. But this is a good number.

Like my model is it seven and a half. There's six and a half. I should be betting Green Bay, but I just don't know. Just the same way I thought about the bills where it's like the bills, they were getting too much respect on the team they're currently not.

I think it's the same for Green Bay where it's like, this feels like a number based off still, just public reception-wise, of what they've done in the past, where I honestly thought this would be like four and a half and I was going to have great value in Green Bay. I could give them out, but at six and a half,

I'll still give them out. It's still a good number, but I just, I don't know what to do with this one yet, not knowing the starters are. It's interesting, you say, if Kyler was a starter, you'd feel better because I would too. Like, Jacoby, I just,

I feel like with Jacoby Brisset, the floor is obviously significantly higher and sort of consistent. And the ceiling is much, much lower. Like you kind of know what you're going to get. We talked about what this year this has happened with these backups have started, look good in game one and then just, yeah, once they have a little bit of tape on them, game two, they fall off a clip because it's like you can't game script the same 20 plays. You can't run his favorite 10 plays again.

Like it's just doesn't work. So that's another reason where it's like kind of interesting with the Berset in the spot that we've seen this year. Basically every team, the second start by the backup has been pretty much a disaster. Other than Jackson DART or I guess even Daxon Darts second start. His second start was a disaster. Yeah. He looked totally like a rookie. And then he got to go up against a terrible defense in the Eagles.

So, you know, he looked like a hall of favor again. He's a lucky guy. All right. Well, let's put a pin in that one because I want to talk about it on Thursday in case we get news about Kyler. Or, by the way, maybe we start feeling differently. Like just talking about Jacoby Brissette and his second game as a backup, you know, I'm starting to think as Michael Parsons just going to have his breakout game as a Packer. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what?

We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas, we invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there.

But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, for people could call in and say, hey Jonas, and then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel,

help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds.

Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series

because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash will get that thing. That man, hell get the flying.

He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, you go through a training camp with that, IZAD, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHeart Podcast presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne. Yeah. This is my best friend Janet. Hey. And we have been joined at the hips since high school. Absolutely.

Now a redacted amount of years later, we're still joined at the hip. Just a little bit bigger hips, wider. This is a podcast. We're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey. With all the snacks and drinks. Sidebar. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? Oh, they had a bogo.

Well, then you got it. Do you want a white color or something here? Just take it. Oh, what are y'all doing? Microphones? Are you making a rap album? Oh, I would. Come on.

Could you imagine? I would buy it. Cuts through the defense like a hot knife through sponge cake. That sounds delicious. Oh, you're lucky I'm not a drug addict. You're lucky I'm not an alcoholic. You're lucky I'm not a killer. I love this team and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on.

Oh. Listen to soccer moms on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Washington at Dallas. Dallas is a two-point underdog. There's actually a book out there that has Dallas at one and a half if you're interested in the commanders. So go shop around. And like, I get the number here. The commander showed a lot of flaws last night. Against better teams than the bears, they would have been blown out. Wouldn't have been a question at all. So to me, I think you can just narrow down. the difference between last week and this week to better quarterbacks. Dak is playing like an MVP. He just is. He's playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. And if he had a defense that was remotely complimentary,

the Dallas Cowboys would possibly be the odds on favor to win this division right now. Instead, they're two-point underdogs at home because their defense is tragic. I don't really have a strong opinion on this one like I do other games. I'd still lean Cowboys here. Burning bright beneath the North Texas sky In the heart of the lone star state Is a galaxy of extraordinary football players They are the Dallas Cowboys

Yeah, and for people asking about totals Like the under here, it's a gross under The total, some books, Hard Rock included, is at 55.5-a-half. So, the divisional game, I get it. Both defenses are bad. people expect a ton of points. You've seen divisional games can just be ugly and sloppy sometimes. And because these teams just know each other so well,

it doesn't matter how bad their defenses or how banged up the defenses are, just can get really fluky in that way. And I am shocked how much respect professional money is coming in on this Cowboys team because it's not just one book at one and a half. There's a ton of books. Oh, are there? That's been going on since we started the show then. So I honestly wanted to be on the commanders here.

I'm like, Chad, I'll wait, talk to people, see what I'm missing. I just have them great as a higher, as a better team right now because of health, where, you know, think Terry McClarm is going to be back for this game. Not the biggest deal if he's not, but it still would be an improvement. But the Cowboys, you go through their injuries, I don't know if they're going to get any of these guys back. Like it seems like it's going to be another week for them being incredibly banged up defensively and across the offensive line.

So, back, once again, playing an MVP level, I think he is 11 touchdowns, one pick, in his last like three or four games. He's just been incredible. It really is about the defense. So I get why the pros are coming in on this Cowboys team at two and a half. I get it. Makes sense for the early line movement. I'll be patient.

Like Chad said, Washington is not a good team. I just think they're a better team than Dallas is right now. So this flips and I can get Washington is a dog. That's the position I'd rather be on. If you're trying to force it right now and grab the two and a half on Dallas, I don't hate it. you're joining the professionals early here on Tuesday, and they see something they really like in this Dallas side.

I feel like I'm just sharp today. I'm on a lot of sharp sides. You are? Yeah. You're locked in. Locked in. Let's talk about the primetime games. We've got a primetime spotlight.

We're all going to try to watch them, even though they start, you know, at ungodly hours. And the only person who didn't stand for that is Simon. We know you're going to want to bet them. So we want to pack it. our games into a prime time spotlight. First one up, Atlanta, San Francisco Sunday night. The 49ers

are two and a half point favorites at hard rock bet. Still a lot of threes out there. I would like to play the Niners here. It's really a question of Brock Purdy. I think I'm just waiting to find out is he going to play or not. Kyle Shanahan said on Monday

that he was hopeful Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall would both be doing positive things and making progress. in practice this Wednesday. So we'll know more for Thursday's show. Atlanta's defense totally legit. Totally legit.

They're doing great things. I just feel like I'm going to fade a team that just beat the bills in prime time because I know I'm getting probably at least half a point or a point of value on the other side. I don't know about that Atlanta defense. They gave up 30 to Carolina and 27 of Marriota when he was backing up for Washington.

So I do have questions. They did look good. They played well. honestly Josh Allen just an off night I mean there's nothing more brained in here in the old guy in the back corner of the sports book saying Josh Allen's got weak legs

now too much sex being married it's like dude what are you talking about man what are you talking about he just had an off night that was a disaster from the get-go so I don't know what to do with Atlanta I can't get a read on them I'm like you I was like initially don't we just back to 49ers here

especially now that it's moved at two and a half this was three it's now two and a half I feel like that's where we're supposed to be and I'm a sucker if I go the other way and I'd take Atlanta but I don't know it's like you just said Atlanta's offenses clicking

their defense as bad as they can be they had moments in that game but they looked really competitive I bought yeah everything in my body is just telling me 49ers is probably the right side here but once again this is life without Fred Warner what is this going to be like, Chad?

Wow, that's a great point. I totally forgot that. And Bosa. Yep. Am I, my model not accounting enough for, you can survive the Bosa loss. You cannot survive losing Fred Warner. I mean, now you're going against arguably the best running back in football

and Pichon Robinson. It's like disaster, disaster, disaster. It's just I feel so bad for him. So I'm trying to find reasons to back this 49ers. I think I'm slowly talking myself into this Atlanta side and that maybe the value isn't caught up yet to the decimation of all these injuries. And even if Purdy does come back

and Ricky Parsons does come back and Kittle does come back, that's going to be a huge improvement to their offense. What do they have left defensive? They've lost, Argo will be the best player, most important player in all football to a defense that couldn't have lost them. So maybe we'll be good luck and I can avoid this one, but something tells you I'm not going to be able to avoid it

and I'm grabbing the two and a half, probably want to get off this call on this Atlanta team. Oh, man, you nailed it. I totally forgot about Fred Warner. I was so focused on Brock Purdy, the Niners. I mean, obviously they'll be able to clean up some of this during practice this week, but they lost that game arguably because of communication issues when Fred Warner went out. Like there was at least one touchdown and multiple plays that did not get covered because they were not communicating.

and the guys who were sort of in new positions, no disrespect to them just didn't know what they were supposed to do and got confused by the motion. So that's tough. Man, I wanted back the Niners. I know. I hate the Falcons. I hate the number.

I just don't think it's like, I think Bijan is great. I'm a little bit down on Pennix. Like he is too often getting caught up when his first guy isn't open. I told you that coming in the year. Totally. Totally. But I feel like they're getting,

they're getting greater to a little too high because of how good their rush game is and because Bijan, the rest of the world is catching up to what a lot of professional betters have known for a while, that Bijan is legit top three player in the NFL with what he can do.

And last night he was spectacular. But I worry that they're still overrated. That's fair. This Monday Night Double header. I'm just so fucking mad about it. I just really am. Tampa Bay at Detroit, Detroit minus four and a half. It's the game one of the double header. I'm very excited to hear your opinion on this game as the true blue Baker backer that you've been against against the odds, against the professional betting community, against everything that is sane and holy. You have been backing

Baker week after week after week and been rewarded for your loyalty. four and a half, the numbers move from five and a half. This is a Detroit spot, if there ever was one, in a vacuum. And I'll explain what I mean, but before I get any further, I just want to hear your opinion. Yeah, I talked a little Sunday night that I saw the line. I was like, oh, my God, I'm going to have to back Detroit, aren't I? And surprisingly, the only real bet I made is the under in this game.

The total, I think, was 53 and a half, and it's come down to 53. still like that under. This really is about this has to catch up with Tampa. Now, if Mike Evans comes back, that is a big deal for that offense because that's just something, even if he doesn't stretch the field like he used to,

that's a guy in the red zone that just against these young corners, backup corners that the Strait Team will have, he will win one-on-ones and Baker will give him multiple chances to win that one-on-one. He knows where his money is made. So, dad to me is a big thing if he comes back i think he is because the early line movement has been

towards this buck's team it's gone he is expected to come back he definitely is coming yeah it's down to four and a half now so you know detroit's got injuries they got guys getting suspended you expect expect expect man campbell historically bounce back game against a baker team that yeah this is a technically a baker line this is gritty baker usually covers back towards this he is so due for a bad Baker game, three-pick Baker game. Like, we know that he has that in his bag. It's Baker, so it's all there for the bounce back Detroit. Shockingly, make this number minus six and a half.

So, like, can't believe it. It's really about the injuries to this Bucks team, I believe, and all the injuries they've had compared to Detroit, who does have injuries, but historically their offense in these spots, just roll teams and I'm going to dive into the trends and stuff but I just feel like every time

Campbell has a day where the fourth downs don't work like the previous game the next game they go five for five on fourth downs or whatever it is. I know I'm probably just making that up but it feels that way because he's the 70% cover. Like they didn't cover last game. Usually these are the spots they bounce back in cover so

I know I know Chad's it's sick to going against my guy Baker. He's been so good to me. He's one of the few guys who I've just been betting every week and it's just He's just, you know, don't need to watch because he's going to win it for me, but I do watch because I love the ride. But, yeah, this is Detroit number of Detroit line, and I'll probably end up on that side. I'm so glad to hear you say that because I didn't want to have a fight about this because I love Detroit here. I'm worried about, you know, the lack of corners and Brian Brancher has already been suspended.

He can appeal. He might be able to play this weekend, but it's going to lose that appeal. I think we got to expect that he's not going to be played this weekend. It's a lion's line. Are you kidding me? The lions at home in a dome. Jared Goff at home in a dome in his career. So this includes the Rams, but mostly the lions.

69% against the spread. This is the spot. Hello, Detroit. Won my heart. You got to back the lions here. I love the lions here. I'm so glad to hear you say that because I was afraid, like we're going to have to have a big debate about this.

If my model had it on Baker, I would have been on Baker, but I'm going to trust my computer because I know I'm too close to it. It's like I just love. You are very close to it. I just love Bettenham on Baker. It's the best. You do. You do.

And it's great. And it's a roller coaster. It's the difference between you and me. You love that ride. I want to stay off that ride. I want that ride to be smooth and easy from the start of the game. I just want to be right. I don't want the ride on the way to being.

right. That's the difference. One more Monday night game. Houston and Seattle. I said I had three games I was thinking about for Chad's choice. I went with Cleveland minus two and a half against Miami. The other game was going to be Denver and the Bay and the Giants, but I wanted to wait for the six and a half. This was my other game. Houston plus three and a half Monday night football against the Seattle, Seahawks. This game's going on at 10 p.m. Eastern. There's no way I'm going to be up for this game.

Take a nap midday. What's that? Take a little nap midday. You'll be up late. Take a nap from like one to two. Give you an extra two hour boost that night. I don't know, but I got like, you know I like to exercise in the morning and. That's even better.

Work out so hard you pass out after. That's the best. It just, you know, it throws off my whole schedule. I bet the Texans at plus three and a half, the first bet that I actually made. Look at Chad, sharp Chad. Look, we love the Seahawks after their win over the Jags, and the defense is great. I think the Texans defense is actually better across like the Cool Kid metrics. The only area where the Seahawks are measurably better on defense than the Texans is against the run,

the Texans are actually mediocre. but I actually in a weird way think that plays into an advantage for the bet because it means the Seahawks who have historically been bad at home under Mike McDonald's like demonstrably worse at home that plays into the bet because maybe they'll just try to run the ball more and chew up the clock and it's going to be a lower score in game with more opportunities for the Texas to keep it close so give me Houston plus three and a half boom yeah love it don't understand this line at all three is right. Three, two and a half feels right.

I cannot believe we're getting the hook. I mean, the total is 40 and a half. So anytime you have a little total like that between two good defenses and they're giving you the hook, don't think it, just bet it, Houston, and the side. This is, I mean, we don't really talk putting Monday night games in. This could be one of them that we do. I know.

Because it's like an insane, insane number. Seattle is good. Are they three and a half points better at home? home in this Houston team, no chance. And I just, looking right now at the early money, it is all all Seattle. So, you might be able to get three and a half later in the

week. It might hold there just because it's so much Seattle money right now, but have to think, respected professional money will come and take a large position on this Houston side. It's just all the trends, everyone's going to have the numbers that I just talked about. They're just not the same team Seattle at home.

They're not what we were used to in the mid-2000s of just a dominant home field advantage has not been that way, especially the last five, six years. So three and a half with the hook, can't avoid it, love it, give me Houston plus three and a half. I'm a little worried that we're going to have to have both Detroit and Houston in the contest.

And just like it's going to be a miserable Monday. It'd be tough because we nailed, obviously last night we went to and up. We were on Atlanta and the bigger. And it's like, are we really going to keep rolling the dice and think we're going to have just keep crushing these primetime games because primetime games, people have probably seen it.

Dogs have been unreal on these past couple weeks. I think, like it's, and it's all outright wins too and that I'm thinking of. I think the chiefs are the only favorite I can think of that one.

Is that crazy? I think that's right. So yeah, it's, yeah, the Giants on Thursday night. Love Detroit, love Houston. This could end up being in our contest, which is crazy. I'm looking at our lineup right now.

Got a lot of games we like, though. We liked Cleveland minus two and a half. That was Chad's choice. Leaning New Orleans plus five and a half. So that'll be a conversation. Simon says was Minnesota plus two and a half. Oh, yeah. You know, we're going to talk about the Jets as underdogs.

We're definitely going to talk about Tennessee as an underdog. You love the Chargers minus one and a half. You know, I really want to bet Denver. I'm hoping it gets to six and a half. Really sounds like I'm getting my haircut this week. Oh, I know, right? We're too confident. Truly.

I love a lot of these games, which last week, I knew it was going to be a good week because I was disgusted with the games, but that's... Hated every game last week. Like, I felt like if I can get out with a winning week, I will be thrilled. And I pressed, I pressed bet. With every bet, I had zero confidence. I'm like, that's a loser. That's a loser.

That's like giving away Gavelyle well, my friend. Giving away every bit of the money that we made this year. You know, like we're going to pay attention to Atlanta. We love Detroit. We love Houston. Like, we got seven or eight games that I feel good putting in the contest right now and a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Can't wait. This has been Sharper Square. Part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Thursday with these games I just discussed that we are zeroing in on. We'll have our sharp versus square head-to-head battle, our brass balls. Some good candidates. Good candidates for that one. Download us from Spotify, Apple Paws, wherever you get your pods.

Rate, review, subscribe, leave five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe.

I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own. podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it.

We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends.

me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Why are we all so obsessed with romance? On the Radio 831 podcast, join us.

Sanjana Basker and Tyler McCall, as we unpack all the trending tropes, fuzzy adaptations, book talk drama, and celebrity love stories with hot takes and sharp guests. Each episode digs into what these stories reveal about desire, fantasy, identity, and how we love now. Listen to the Radio 831 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. and I'm Kunky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers.

We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast, guaranteed human.