The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 8 Bets: Packers-Steelers, Giants-Eagles, Cowboys-Broncos, Browns-Patriots, Bears-Ravens and more

Episode Date: October 21, 2025

NFL betting expert Chad Millman is joined by professional sports gambler Simon Hunter to discuss the latest NFL spreads. Together the duo react to last night's Monday Night Football doubleheader, and then provide initial betting picks and predictions for NFL Week 8 starting with Thursday Night Football, the Minnesota Vikings vs. LA Chargers. Then our two gambler hosts look at every matchup on the board to give their top NFL picks, including their best bets for Sunday Night Football Green Bay Packers vs. Aaron Rodgers’ Pittsburgh Steelers, and Monday Night Football with Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders vs. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Games covered from a gambling perspective include Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos, Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo, and the New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears vs. Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots, the return of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills vs. Carolina Panthers, and every other game on the board. #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:07:01 - VIKINGS VS CHARGERS 0:10:26 - DOLPHINS VS FALCONS 0:15:40 - BEARS VS RAVENS 0:22:57 - BROWNS VS PATRIOTS 0:27:00 - GIANTS VS EAGLES 0:33:11 - NINERS VS TEXANS 0:45:35 - BILLS VS PANTHERS 0:48:33 - JETS VS BENGALS 0:52:10 - BUCS VS SAINTS 1:00:00 - TITANS VS COLTS 1:02:00 - COWBOYS VS BRONCOS 1:07:21 - PACKERS VS STEELERS 1:12:00 - COMMANDERS VS CHIEFS   -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you.

you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the ice. Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more, follow Timbo Slicelife 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Winning on Clay is an art. The rallies are relentless. And at the French Open, only the toughest survive. I'd know. I competed there for decades. Join me, Renee Stubbs, on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast for no nonsense breakdowns of the biggest matches, the toughest players, and the moments that define Roland Garris. Jen should win.

She's an outsider to win the French friend. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lernerabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcasts on the IHeart Radio app. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Welcome to Sharper Square.

Presented by Hard Rock Bat. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the square sharper. It makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined as always by my co-host, my companion, my BFF, my compadre, professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

Chad, what's up, brother? Well, listen, we've kind of entered Buy I'mageddon. Do you know what that means? Does it mean there's a bunch of buy weeks? That means that there are six teams with buys this week. is the most of any by week in the NFL. So that means we don't get to fade the Raiders. We don't get to wring our hands about the Rams.

We don't get to wonder in awe at Sam Darnold. We don't get to think about how we're going to bet the Los Angeles Rams. We don't get to wonder if Jacoby Brissette will keep his job as the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, all those things are off the table. Our options will be severely limited, both for betting and for Survivor. Also, I'm sad to say, it's time for you to get a haircut, my friend.

Yeah, it's welcomed. I'm looking forward to it. Look, we went two and three last week in our five favorite picks. We won't with the Browns and then the Lions last night. We lost with the Chargers as favorites and the Texans and Titans as underdog. All three of those games, we were undone by the AFC South. The Colts crushed us with the Chargers. The Texans could not do anything.

We're going to get into that. And the Titans, there was no bounce, but it was just a dead cat. So 21 and 14 for the year with our five favorite picks through seven weeks. Tough one, tough one. All right, this is our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. Make sure you check out the Sunday AM show if you want the games that will be our official five

after we've had a chance to review. I know before we get into this slate, we will be relaunching our free-to-play contest. I know people are frustrated who have listened to the show for years and we've had this contest. And now we're talking about a different contest. That's just the breaks of the game. We're really frustrated by it. We're bum by it. But the good news is because Hard Rock is benevolent and knows how committed our audience is. We are going to be relaunching the contest. We're just getting through some of the final sort of wranglings. That contest will have dynamic lines. Those are going to be the lines that we're always going to be talking about and referencing. So we will dispense of talking contest lines during the week. I think that has been causing some people some confusion as we have gone through the season.

in. Rest assured, when we are talking about the games, we are betting, we are as explicit as possible. Like, we say we like a game, we like a game, we give a number that we like that game up until, and we will keep talking about how we're betting that game and at what number regardless. So I want there to be clarity on that. I know there's frustration and confusion, but we will be very explicit about the show and the lines we are betting when we were talking about this on Tuesday and Thursday. Don't forget, get the show as a Sharper Square on YouTube.

Go subscribe and like this video while you are at it. You can subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pods. We got some Thursday night football on Amazon Prime. Minnesota Vikings at the Los Angeles Chargers. Lines ticked up, Simon. It's gone from two and a half to three. Feels to me like that could only be a wide. guy move and I don't get what anyone who's sharp is thinking about if they're piling in on the

chargers unless they're just thinking I want the number at two and a half could be just also it's a short week you know that's can this keep getting worse and worse for this chargers team that they've just been embarrassed they've been terrible this year so I'm with you if I even take a position I'll take the three and a half on the Vikings if I can get it just a bad game like how do you you trust either side. You trust Carson Winsd? I mean, not really. I guess we trust Flores' defense, but with Herbert, we've

seen it time and time again. He can play really well for a quarter or two, get big leads and if they can figure out some things on their defense, they can get stops against Wence. They should win this game, but I just cannot trust his Chargers team. I know it's like we keep saying every week and it keeps missing.

They're at the rock bottom. The books keep moving their number. but yeah for them you got to pray if you're betting the charges you get joe all back because this this could be a long day with that front line against this chargers team for the viking so yeah three and a half that's the that's the key there it's like hard rock's at three I'm not in a rush to play either side at that number like you said the sharp side probably was chargers minus two and half that's that's a fair bet but three and a half once we get to that number it's like

okay I'll on a short week I'll take COC against a minter defense That's just been terrible. Chargers defense has not been good. Look, they've been, as bad as this offensive line has been, and it's been dreadful. Like, Justin Herbert is playing with guys in his lap on nearly every play, and they can't get any rush game going. But this defense is just, that's what upset me on Sunday, is it just looked like they rolled over every single time the Chargers offense got anything going. and they made a little bit of a comeback,

they put a dent into the lead against the cult. The Chargers defense just laid down and gave it all back. And to me, that's as big an issue as this offensive line. And unfortunately, this Chargers defense is kind of healthy. Like there's no, it's not sort of cluster injuries that we've seen on the offensive line. It's the standard injuries that every NFL team gets

and they're not able to really respond to that right now, and their defense is getting worse and worse every week. There is a little bit of drama. Kevin O'Connell would not commit to Carson Wentz as the Vikings quarterback after their loss to the Eagles on Sunday. He even dropped the name Max Brosmer, their undrafted free agent, second string quarterback from Minnesota, Golden Gophers. On Sunday, like saying if Carson couldn't go back in

because he was beat up. We were ready to put Max in. So I feel like there's a lot of frustration. I'm glad we are agreeing that this cannot be a game we are committed to. Thank God. Thank freaking God. Look, can we say the same about the Miami Dolphins traveling to Atlanta where the Falcons are seven point favorites? We are going to talk about the betting on this one. But First, I want to play this clip that I came across yesterday. I just loved it. It's got disgust, disappointment, frustration. It sounds like a parent who has had it with his kids doing the same stupid shit day after day after day.

And it's just gone full exaggeration mode. Take a listen. Yeah, he's going to take the snaps this week and he's going to their start of this week. And my expectation is that we don't. Um, throw 10 picks. Dude, come on. How many coaches, like, I, I know we're sort of waiting for Mike McDaniel to get fired, but how many coaches get up there and are so sarcastic?

They're like, three picks, 10 picks. We all know what I'm talking about here. Tua's been trash. I loved that clip. Loved it. I love Mike McDaniel for saying it. I actually, I'm going to give him respect. I think it's a higher level on that.

I think he's doing Tua, what Tua did literally the week before. which is throwing his defense under the bus because he had a good game. Like he came back against the Chargers. He felt like he did his job. So he came out and just through his defense. And now, you know, he's coming out there just throwing two exactly two. I did the week before. So I'm shocking.

It feels like that's actually a little bit of a higher level there from a guy I am with you. Feels like everything he says is nonsensical. He's a very out there kind of guy. But I kind of get it. I kind of get what he's doing there. That's really interesting. I didn't get it at all. I totally thought of that as something very

a superficial slight. I think that was layered right there. Because why would he do? That's, he's never done something that egregious or insane. Right. He's always very sort of supportive. Yeah.

Like again, when he's nonsensical, okay, he's just a crazy person. But that was like, he was dialed in. He was ready for that one. That one was in the back pocket.

So my model likes Miami. It's probably a good Miami number. I can't do it. Can you? Do you have the confidence? Well, here's the thing. Like, I'm glad to hear you say that. You and I have not talked about this game.

No. My models are flashing green for Miami. Oh, really? Oh, yeah. Mainly because of the spot. Exactly. Like, teams getting blown out, teams being undervalued, bad teams off a loss, being undervalue.

Right, right. That makes sense. All of it is, you know, if you do any kind of sort of situational or top-down betting, that's, this is what you do. you bet Miami and look it has come down a little bit it was seven and a half it's come down to seven so somebody's right taking a piece of the dolphins but situation and that would be nice seven and a half obviously yeah situationally be jean robinson may run for 10 000 yards in this game like the dolphins 31st in EPA per run 32nd in success rate 30th in explosive run percentage allowed 28th in yard

allowed after contact, 32nd in yards allowed per game. So it's rough, man. Yeah, and we've talked a little bit of Lana. It's an interesting team because their quarterback is so young and new. And you saw in that 49ers game, they did the best they could to just put it all on him. Again, we haven't even talking about 49ers yet this week,

but like that, well, the job solid is doing. That coaching tandem might be the best in the league. So Penix, he just seems like he's a different quarterback on the road overall. And, you know, this season, we've seen it this year. He's just better at home. I don't know what it is. Maybe it's inside control weather. I don't know what it is.

But like he dominated or didn't usually dominated, but he played really well, against a Buffalo team. Like he just didn't turn the ball over. He kind of played inside of his game. And Washington, they put 34 points. We've seen them on the road. You know, a Carolina game, that was a big deal. That was an interesting spot.

So, you know, them losing 30-0, and then they go on a road against 49ers. They lose 20 to 10. The offense is just anemic. Without Fred Warner, without Nick Bosa, and they still couldn't muster more than 10 points. Here against Miami, it's all right. They should be, this spot for Atlanta.

So maybe I'll be patient, let it get to six and a half. but if it does ever get that seven and a half number out, I have to take, I have to take Miami at that point. It's just to, two indoors with his offense and that run game, they're going to put up points. That Cleveland,

that's not who they are, that Cleveland game, right? Even as bad as Miami's been this year, they've moved the ball and put up points and controlled environments pretty well. So, we know what we're supposed to do chat here. I think we both just,

we're so grossed out, disgusted by the way this team is and the way they are going this season. I just, I don't want to put my money against my, with Miami. Chicago, Baltimore. Baltimore is a six and a half point favorite.

It's just been sitting there. You pegged this one on Sunday night, looking to take Baltimore. You said to be patient. I actually thought it might come down a little bit, but if you look at the juice, it's kind of trending towards seven. I'll spare you a lot of my strategic thoughts.

But shoot, I'm starting to fall in love with Baltimore here. It's not a Chad's choice, but it very nearly was. Yeah, I really like the Ravens for the spot, but the fear would be just Lamar isn't fully right, and we're betting to something we have no knowledge of. We have no idea if his hamstring is healed and if it's Lamar the old. Because we talked before he sat out, I couldn't get over the guys chasing him down that Chiefs game.

It was like, I just, you had people in the person to be like, he lost a step. And it's like, no, he didn't lose a step. He's still not, he's still a young guy. He's just hurt. He has to be hurt. And that's the fears. We're betting into a guy.

We haven't seen play at a high number. But I disagree with the market. It's minus six and a half. I think that's right. He is fully go and practice moving well. I mean, they're going to get guys back on their own defense to the Ravens here. It's just a terrible spot for this Bears team.

They're just walking into a team with a month of frustration, fully healthy after being well-rested by. week. It's like, can the bears do it? Yeah, we've seen them pull the rabbit out of their ass a couple of times this year. They've been, like we've talked about, they've been one of those impressive teams that they've going to earn that right to be a wildcard team if they keep winning those close games. So could they play tight, sure, but the Ravens we know, the Ravens we bet, usually this is the type of game. They absolutely roll. It's an NFC team. Lamar just doesn't lose to them. Yeah, it's a game where even if you're not confident about this

Ravens team, you just got to trust the number. This would, if this was a fully healthy, we knew Lamar was all good. This would probably be closer to eight and a half, nine. So I think we're still getting value on this line. I'm gonna take it. I'm nice. I'm happy to hear that you're on it

as well, the minus six and a half. I feel like you just talked yourself into it while you were talking. When you started that conversation, you're like it's, it's, I feel like it's priced right. Well, it feels easy. That's the scare. It's like, why is it so low? I can't believe this is seven seven and a half actually did well to me i'm having a really hard time gaging how good

the bear's rush d is right now uh they were they were they were definitely they've definitely been better after the buy they still they still they still gave up don't get sucked into that well that's the thing like they still guy guy i'm getting there i'm not good i don't know why you bring it up though it's like dude well they look they still gave up 120 yards to the commanders in week six and jaden daniels with a bulky knee no problem slipping by their rush. And I keep thinking what like Jaden Daniels or what Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry can do. And listen, this bears rushing attack. Like, can they beat up on a Ravens D that is 29th in EPA, success rate, and DVOA? But like you said, Roquant Smith will be back. They should be fully healthy in the secondary. Maybe they get some support in the run game by

bringing their safeties up a little bit. Like, I'm not overly impressed with the Bears winning four games in a row. I'm happy the Bears have won four games in a row. I'm afraid they get blown into Baltimore Harbor with a lot of confidence. brewing for this team. That's why I like Baltimore. Yeah, I just, I think we're both in the same page. It's really just about this Ravens in a get-right spot. Baltimore Ravens minus six and a half.

Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, huge news? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts.

Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band.

Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad. Hey Jonas and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.

But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band

with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game.

This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories.

behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your And for more, follow Timbo Slica Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis.

And I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs. And on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on clay. Jen Chinchin win. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the first. French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lina Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now.

And I actually can win on any surface because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Cleveland at New England. New England is a seven-point favorite. We know what we do here. It's Patriots or Pats. Yeah, I'm fine with that. If people are wondering what model is going to pick, models are going to take the Browns here. That's a Browns line.

You have an inexperienced second-year quarterback and going against what most computers are going to view as a juggernaut defense, but we told you, like, we keep hammering home. I just don't trust Cleveland's defense to travel, let alone a rookie QB in the Browns, who I don't trust at all, having to make big-time throws in this game.

So I'm with you. I hate that I'm being scared off by the number, but it's also like this, this Patriots team, I know you believe the Drake May stuff. Like I go back and watch his stuff and it's like, dude, this kid, he is getting,

he is very talented, but the throws he makes and the stuff that's working out for him are just absurd right now. Like he is playing as like the top three, top four quarterback on football right now, but it's not going to last. It's just, it's not possible.

I know football fans don't want to hear this. I mean, holy hell, how much noise that I hear from Jane, Daniels fans telling me I don't know what I'm talking about. There's not going to be a year two letdown. The book, it gets out on you and injuries come and you play a certain style. So Drake May, I think he can last, but the hits he takes, I'm sure you've seen it.

The hits he takes, I just don't get it. Like, I watched the game and it's like, I can't believe this kid is making these plays after taking these big shots, not just at his head, like his shoulders are getting hit too. Like, it's whole thing's crazy. So, yeah, it's number wise, like I said, My model is at six. I'm still going to take the Patriots. I probably would still take it.

If it was minus seven and a half. I just, I have no interest or faith betting Dylan Gabriel on the road or that Cleveland defense on the road. So, yeah, I hate it because it's like such a brown spot, but yeah, I can't do it. Got to take Patriot sign number. I don't know that it is a brown spot.

And to me, it really is not even about their defense. Like, we know that we want to fade the Brown's defense on the road. The Patriots can't run the ball. You know that, right? Yeah, they can't run the ball. So that's why it's a brown spot. Like they, you can make a one-dimensional Drake May. That's where you want to be.

But here's the thing. It, to me, it's not about the Browns defense. It's all about Dylan Gabriel against the Patriots defense. And I've said this for two weeks. Christian Gonzalez, he doesn't get mentioned in the broadcasts. I watched almost that entire Titans Patriots game. I watched it so our fans didn't have to. That's the kind of sacrifice that I make for the people on this show.

They don't mention Christian Gonzalez because you can't throw in his direction. So all of a sudden, Dylan Gabriel, who already is disadvantaged, who already isn't very good, who has escaped by the skin of his teeth and having two, a throw three picks and, you know, one of him in the back of the end zone that led to a touchdown and one of them was a pick six. and then Quintan Jutkins running for 40-yard touchdowns. Like if you look at what the Browns did this past week on offensively, they didn't do anything. So I don't know what they can scheme that could get them into the end zone

unless there are just dramatic broken plays. You kind of got to bet on that. And I don't want to bet on hoping the Browns can create some kind of havoc because I don't know that Dylan Gabriel can take advantage of. it. That's why, Simon. I might have to get back on Twitter and just start tweeting out. Christian Gonzalez is disgruntled and the Eagles are looking to get him for a third, fourth round pick. I'm about to start tweeting that out every day just because I cannot take

every week, AJ Brown and Patriots fans being like, yeah, I heard the Eagles might give him up for a second or a third. Even after he had a huge week, I'm still seeing people be like, I still don't think AJ Brown's happy. I still think he wants out. It's like, oh my God, this is never going to end, is it? New York Giants at Philadelphia. the Eagles. The Eagles are seven point favorites in this game. You were surprised by this one that it was so high. And I thought on Monday, it looked like it was trending towards six and a half. There were some six and a halfs out there. But now this morning, it's at seven. You look at the juice. It might be trending to seven and a half two weeks ago in New Jersey, a game that the Eagles got doubled up on and lost 3417. The line was Eagles minus seven and a half. If you take sort of traditional point spread math,

that means the Eagles would be about, let's say, 10 point favorites in a neutral site, which means they should be 13 point favorites, you know, in Philadelphia, if you give, say, three points to home field advantage. Let's say you're only doing two. Let's say it's 12. Isn't that some indication right now about how the bookmakers have adjusted the Giants and the Eagles

and how betters have adjusted the Giants and the Eagles and their power ratings? Yeah, and I don't know why my mind right to it. All I can think of is we've only played one Thursday game in our contest and we lost it. It was the Rams. We've hit every other Thursday game and we have not put any of them in the contest

just sums up this year in a stupid way. Yeah, I don't get this one because I didn't get why the line like I said was so high still. And what are we missing on this Giants team? Like last week, people were coming in on Denver, and I just didn't get it. And it's like, am I adjusting too much to this Giants team? Or are people still not rating this free playing dart style?

Like, he's not thinking, making big throws. And Camp Scadaboo, I can't believe it's worked out. Like, I remember him coming out. I was like, there's no way this stump of a human is going to work in this league. And he's a beast, man. He runs through dudes faces every week. He's just in the right scenario, right spots. He really is like a mini bus.

He's just an obese. So I don't know. I feel like the Eagles are the right side. I'm getting psyched out too much by this Giants team. But I just don't trust this Eagles team. Like I just, I'm having a hard time trust him because they're just not consistent offense or defense. They're half teams.

And it's been bizarre. Like they've had the hardest schedule on all of football. You know, they are. Five and two. It hurts. I saw some crazy stat. Through seven weeks, he's number one ratio, touchdowns interceptions. He is second in A-DOT.

He is fifth in pass-r rating. He is seventh in total EPA. And he's seventh in completion percentage. And it's like, just at the basis, he's having a great season, but I don't think of the team they are. Like, Sequin, we've talked about. He's not running right. He hasn't have 100 yards from scrimage this year.

It's bizarre. So I don't know what to do with it. I think I am supposed to be on the Eagles. My model says I am, but there's a party that's just like, are we just all still undervying this Giants team? That's, they're going to hit a wall.

They're going to fall off a cliff eventually. I just don't know if it's this game yet. It's tough to guess. So I guess I'll just a model here, try to take my human aspect out, and I'll give out the Eagles still, and I'll bet the Eagles. But I felt way better at six and a half,

like you said. Now it's getting closer to seven and the first. seven and a half. So I'll take the seven now before it moves to that number. I thought the Eagles would hit the wall last week against the Broncos. I think we're all waiting for the fall because Jackson Dart is playing kind of out of his mind. And he's doing what a lot of great quarterbacks do. We see it with Jaden Daniels. We see it with Lamar Jackson, where he's getting his team into position to convert third and longs because if he sees the opportunity, to run in a wide open field.

He's just going for it. And he's finding a way to get that first down in what seemed like in possible situations. And that's debilitating for a defense and morale crushing for a defense. I don't, I like the Eagles have been so, like you said, a little bit off, a little inconsistent. And Jalen Carter will disappear.

And then he'll have a game like he did on Sunday where he had seven quick pressures, like pressures of a very specific amount of time or less, or six maybe, and that was more than the entire Eagles defensive front combined. And that normally comes from defensive ends. So- Did you see you unretired?

Yes. That's how bad it is. Brandon Graham, who was an Eagles legend, going back to their Super Bowl against the Patriots and playing last year after a season with a torn pack and it was going to be his last season, has unretired to come back and play. That's not a savior situation.

That's a desperation situation. It is what I told you. Before he went down last year, he was our best, the end, like, statistically. So I'm happy he's coming back. He said he didn't retire how he basically told him, like, dude, you got the Hollywood ending, like give it up.

So it's nice to know he still has a fire in him, but yeah, I just, When I saw that, I was like, man, it is dark, dark times right now for Philadelphia that we are trying to get our old players are unretired because we need them. I mean, Jason Kelsey, if you can still do it, brother, we need you. Come on back. Honestly. Yeah, this is just a hard. Like, you're going to take the Eagles at seven.

It's tough. I'm uncommitted on this game. Like, I kind of hate everything about it because the Giants keep breaking. There's a lot of games I hate this week. Yeah. And there's not enough. And it's hard because there's so many buys. But like the Giants keep breaking.

Well, the numbers are getting. sharper. I mean, that's true. Yeah, that's how it goes. The Giants are breaking the mold and the Eagles, are you betting what we've seen all year? Are we betting what we saw last week, which is their best complete game? And even then, they kind of got away with one. So it's tough. It's really, really tough. San Francisco at Houston, bouncing back and forth and back and forth. The Texans had been favorites as high as two and a half, even heading into last night's game. It's settled around one and a half after the game and their loss, it flipped to nineers minus one and a half. Texans plus one and a half. Now Texans minus one. Simon would say you.

Chad, this is Simon Says. Give me Houston minus one. I want to play a game. Simon says. Simon says presented by hard rock bed at Houston Texans minus one. I give it to me. And you're right. It's in flip-flip. And I'd see much rather have Texans as a dog. Would have been nice. But unfortunately for me, the professionals have the same idea as I did.

It's just a nice spot for this Texas team after last night. Did you stay up or did you actually go to bed? Did. Listen, I went to bed. But, you know, the Lions game lasted so long that it went past what I was hoping would be my 10 p.m. bedtime. So I did end up. And then I started watching the mayor.

or Blue Jays, like it was the eighth inning, and I wanted to see what was going on. So I saw the end of that game. I got to see the George Springer home run, and I watched until the end of the game, and I've multivued with the Seahawks and Texans. And look, like, that was discouraging. It was, it was disgruntling,

if you had bet the Texans. Even the five minutes I watched, Texans forced four turnovers. they scored one touchdown themselves on defense. They blocked the field goal. They had back-to-back turnovers to give the Texans a chance at the end of the game and the Texans could do nothing with it.

Like, this is a pathetic offense. And it's such a bummer. They're wasting such a good defense. So tell me why we're going to bet the Texans this week. There you go. Yeah, it was just all CJ. Like we should have covered, even maybe potentially won that game a thousand different ways.

And CJ was just awful. Had an off night. And that's honestly why I like it. People are just, they're down on Houston already this year. And after that type of game where CJ, to me, it's probably his worst game of the year. He was just, like you said, so many opportunities gifted by Seattle. And he just, even the reps were helping him out, honestly. Like a couple of calls were very favorable to our direction.

But this Houston team is just good to me. Like, even in that game, everything was going wrong. They sought a chance to win in like multiple different ways. It just, once again, CJ couldn't come through. their offense, I put a lot of on their OC. Like some of his calls, I'm trying to think there's one specific play. It might have been in the third quarter.

It was third and one. He runs it to the left side. Again, they're getting zero push on this left side, the entire game. And even the announcers are laughing at this guy. Be like, that was a, why not just do a QB sneak there on third and one? Because you know you're going for it again if you're going for it if you're running it on third and one. So they line up fourth and one, they run Chad.

They run the exact same play to the left side. Again, a play they just lost. a yard on and they lose a full yard the next time. So there's a lot of dysfunction with Houston. I think everyone's going to be down on it. On the flip side, 49ers on Sunday night had a huge win, right? They went 20 to 10 in a game where I didn't think they looked good at it all.

I thought that was just a pure McCaffrey, put the team on your back. Oh, yeah. Win the game for your offense. He won't be able to do that against a Houston defense. This Houston defense is legit. Like Sam Darnold, he was the one that really stole that game, right? as bad as CJ was. Same down at two drives.

He opened the game up. They were just incredible. He was automatic. Him and, you know, we talked about Jackson Smith of Jigba. They're just in tune right now, and that's what happened in that game. But you saw in that second half,

he used to defense has kept them in the game. They got the strip sack touchdown. Like Chad said, the blocked field goal. They were just a team that never quits, they never die. And I like that type of mentality for a team that just got embarrassed now on a short week where I talked about. The public was going to have their. week. This was their past weekend. This is going to be a huge public side, the 49ers. And to me,

I was hoping the line would flip again. I could see this getting up to two minus two. Like just we saw the charge. I could see this getting up to minus two, minus two and a half professional money to come on the Houston side because it is a good spot for this defense at home and a get right against a team. The 49ers that you can keep back in Mack Jones. It's working for you. He's making the plays and everything like that. But I do think we see Brock Purdy. I think he rushes back because I just, how can he not be worried about his job right now? He's in a spot where there are three and oh in the division, this 49ers team. So at 5 and 2, 3 in 0 your division, he's got to be feeling a little bit.

Like this is a lot of Mack Jones. Mac Jones is carrying this team right now. So I could see him rushing back and I just, this line to me is a pretty line. If it was Mack Jones, I could see Houston being minus three. This to me, they're pricing in a point and a half into point two. two points maybe into Purdy here. So I like this early number here on Houston. Yeah, look, I agree with everything you've said, except for Brock Purdy is worried about

his job. Brock Purdy, who just signed a $55 million your contract is not worried. That matters? Yeah, is not worried about his job and losing it to Mack Jones. There is no world in which where that is a conversation. I'm a Carson one survivor. You're a Mitch Tribesky survivor. What are you talking about right now?

None of that money means anything. Purdy has had one good year. Like, all right, he can come back. He gets hurt again and Mack Jones keeps winning games. That's a real conversation. That's a real conversation. If Brock Purdy gets hurt again and continues to struggle and can't stay healthy, he's not worried about his job after a three-game absence.

So the last pick in the NFL draft because he was small-bodied, who can't stay on the field, isn't worried about his job right now because you just got paid a bunch of money. From an organization I moved on from the number three pick of the NFL to him, I think you're not reading this one, right? That's a real thing. You're five and two with a guy that apparently

the head coach loved and got overstepped by Lynch, take someone else. Like that, Mac Jones stuff is real. So I don't know. It's an entrance seat spot. All right, all right. I'm nothing, if not flexible, in my beliefs. I'm just letting you know,

like the plugged-in world. that's a real thing going on. So you're giving me not speculation. You're giving me sourcing. Yeah, it's Mac Jones. This is real. Purdy needs to get healthy and come back and play well. Like,

he doesn't want to go into next off season with all this hanging over him. He needs to get right because the way the kids playing, Mac Jones, who I don't think he's as good as Purdy. He's winning games right now. He's playing well. He's got like a bum shoulder and a bum knee.

That's pretty, that's tough. That's a really, if you're a football team, you rally around those type of guys. Well, by the way, for context, for those who don't remember, whatever it was, 21, 22, that's when Mack Jones and Trey Lance were both talked about as going to the Niners. And everyone thought it was going to be Mac Jones at number three. And everyone was betting huge sums of money. It was going to be Mac Jones at number three. And then it came out 48 hours before that it might be Trey Lance.

And then people were betting huge sums of money that Trey Lant, that Mac Jones wouldn't go number three, including our friend Simon, who we did a segment on our old show where you had pulled over from the side of the road on the way to or from the sports book where you just made a massive, massive bet on Mac Jones to not go number three. So I can't deny you know of what you speak when it comes to being inside this particular conversation. I just, I know I have good people inside the foreign arts organization. I always have people I have trust.

So, yeah, that situation again, like you said, it can end up being nothing pretty comes back, plays the rest of the year. They make the playoffs or something that wins the division. But as we say right now, it's, like I said, too, I don't feel good about it against Sala or, you know, Shannon here. I just said they're probably the best coaching tandem of football right now. What they've done with this team is incredible. But they're another team. I just think they're batting way above their head. You know, Eagles points differentials plus five.

49ers point differentials plus seven. So it's like it's the same thing. It's like two teams that are winning games. They probably shouldn't be winning, but Eagles are much healthier getting right. 49ers, they just, they're not going to get these pieces back. So it's impressive what they did Sunday,

but how can they not be overvalued by the general public right now? And flip side Texans, we're both discussed with them. Like that CJ was awful, but you got to do it people. I know it's gross. Just got to wash away what happened last week. It's a new week.

You're getting a good number. try not to overthink it. If I had stayed up for that game, I don't think I would have slept yet because it would have ended at like 1 o'clock, 1.30. I would have been so angry. It would have taken me until now to finally start coming down. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. It's opening night in the NBA, which means it's time to shoot your shot on Hard Rock Bet.

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Buffalo at Carolina, Carolina plus seven and a half. Look, Bryce Young has the high ankle sprain. So Dave Canales is saying he's day-to-day. There are other reports saying he's expected to miss the game. I think it's ticked up because people expected to be Andy Dalton. I love the Panthers so much at full strength that I realized when I was looking at my accounts. I bet this at plus seven during the summer. Because I thought that the Panthers at this point

would be so good that the number would have been shorter. They're good. But without Bryce Young, I can't believe that Bryce Young is the deciding factor for us in this game. I don't know if he is. I think that was a good read by you. You definitely got lucky with your read that Buffalo would be as bad as they are right now. but a good read on the Panthers being better.

Like if this was Bryce, probably would be six and a half six. If it was Bryce, I'd love it. I'd feel so good. I'm shocked. You're scared off about being it, about being Andy.

I thought as Russies, he looked last week, expect a full week of practice. This should be a nice spot for him. This is a Bill's team that can't stop the run and they might have one of the best running backs on football right now. No, they don't believe it because they're still trying to give Chuba Hubbard touches.

Yeah, right? It's, they have a good running attack. And we've talked. Their team is different at home. The Panthers are just simply different. So brutal. Like this is technically a get right spot for the bills after they're,

you know, they've been so bad by a week. They should play well here. But the day doesn't back those type of things up. Usually teams come out sluggish in these type of games. So we'll see. I'll check out the injury report for the bill, see what guys are getting back.

You mean, you know, at Oliver, obviously came back was a huge instant jolt to that defense in a big way. But Panthers plus seven and a half, I don't know, kind of love it. Kind of love it. It just feels like it's too much, too much respect for this Bill's team. They don't, just like the Eagles, I don't know where it's, it's, is it warranted? Like, is this defense good enough to be catching a touchdown and a half? Like, we've got Andy Dalton with his best receiving course since he's had A.J. Green and

in Cincinnati days, like, Tederoa McMillan's a stud. Like, they just, like, they have a lot of guys that are just really good. And their defense is improving every single week. Yeah. So I don't know. All right. All right. Kind of love the Panthers.

Listen, here's the truth. I'm locked in on this either way. So. Yeah, you got to bet it again, though, if you get seven and a half. If I guess seven and a half, maybe I'm betting it again. Got it. Like this feels like where we've got an early indicator on what could be a brass balls with Carolina at seven and a half against the Buffalo Bills.

That'll be interesting to see. see as we get more reports from Thursday, from the injury reports. Oh, God. New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati Bengals are six and a half point favorites. This is what it's come to for the New York Jets. Joe Flackos three weeks into his mid-season career change, still learning the playbook in Cincinnati. A huge win on Thursday night football that we loved because we had the Bengals. He's nearly a touchdown favorite. And, and this line has gone up two points since the Jets game on Sunday. The line was four and a half on Sunday.

It's now six and a half. Simon. Simon. A hundred percent, every model is going to have the Jets as the side to bet. in this game we do not know who will be the starting quarterback we do know for the jets we do know that justin fields in the last two games do you know how many total passing yards he has in the last two games 80 91 i'm glad that you went so low 45 i noticed it's been it's been atrocious 45 and 46 he's not even playing quarterback anymore i know

It's a train wreck and they have so many injuries too. Like, I can't believe it though. Joe Flacco is minus seven. I don't know. I don't know what to do with this one because you're right. Like my motto wants us to take it. I mean, the money line, you're getting plus 270 against Flacco. That's insane.

You're almost getting three to one in your money against Betting against Joe Flacko. I'd almost rather take the money line, you know, because. Yeah, right, right. I put a little bit less than my full unit on it. Just because they haven't won a game yet this year. Yeah, like. But I told you, Aaron Glenn's not a real coach. He's not a serious head coach.

I saw a clip. He's calling other coaches that ask them how they handle telling a start of their bench and going with another guy or what he should do with a starting quarterback position. It's a disaster. And there's a disaster organization. So, yeah, it's like I said, this week, there's so many lines I hate. I don't even want to bet. I guess I had to take a position because that's what we're doing this show.

I'll give up the Jets, but man, you can hear my voice. I'm probably with Chad. I'd rather just bet the money line plus 270 plus 280 if I can find it rather than even taking the number here because like you said, we're going to back through with Fields or Taylor. Like these are not backdoor quarterbacks, but they are the type of quarterbacks that they can get a stupid lead and hold on to it by running the bow with their legs.

But yeah, it's just disastrous. Well, look, I trust Tyrat Taylor. a lot more than I trust Justin Fields. And the only time we've actually, I think the only time we've bet the Jets and that they've covered this year was that game against the Bucks, which was a Ty Rod Taylor miracle game.

I've actually been really proud of us this year that we haven't bitten on the Jets. It's been that terrible though. One of them against Pittsburgh, week one. Right. Right. I guess we did. Yeah, but I'm with you. Like, we just, it's just a team we don't trust and can't get a read on.

They're tough, so. They have nothing exceptional. No. You're a gambler. Who bets on the Jets? Have you not learned anything about betting? The Jets are going to come back. Oh, they're not.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans. This line is dropped from five and a half to four and a half. New Orleans plus five and a half is now plus four and a half. So that tells me the wire. guys have been coming in on new orleans since last night's game here's my worry and i have a very specific opinion on this game i worry that the new orleans saints are going to become to us the same team that the panthers have been we see enough each week that we feel encouraged and there are a couple lucky breaks away each way

game from actually staying in it and covering as they were last week against the Bears as they were the week before against the Patriots but in reality they're not that team and I think this is a bad matchup for them and I think it's time to get on the Baker train I'm not there yet with this buck steam that that was a bad Baker game obviously the lines they should have lost that game by 40 though like golf. Oh yeah, totally. Golf was terrible.

I can't believe that we had to sweat that. Yeah, honestly. So I mean, this buck's team, Chad, they don't, I know they blew a team out the week before, but like they're another team with a minus one point differential. Like I get it. They're five and two, but all those games, remember they were winning on last second field goals. So six and a half, obviously in the Saints, that was the side.

We talked a little bit Sunday night. That was a great number. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It sucks that we missed it and that it's gone now, that we're stuck with the four and a half, but you're probably right. Maybe I'm too close to it, but this is just,

I don't know how this Bucks team, with other injuries, as bad as the Saints team is, it's a divisional game, and they're catching more than a field goal. So if it was minus three, I honestly would have no issue taking the Bucks. It's all about the line with them.

Like this year, they've been very profitable if you've been pricing in those type of games and those lines. This is not a Bucs line to me. This is still a Saints number, The Bucks, like we said, when they get guys back, if they get Gawain back, if Bucky Irvin is back this week, if they do get a couple guys in their secondary back, I could come to your side, Chad.

But as we sit here right now, I just, I can't trust them. And, yeah, this Saints team that played really bad in the weather, we've seen them play well at home indoor. Like every game they're in, they're usually close games. This is a close game type of number. So I'm with you. They're slowly becoming a favorite team. in mind the Saints team.

But yeah, this, it's about the number. Like, I'm not banging the table for it because it's not plus six and a half, but I still think there's value here that's been overlooked at plus four and a half. I got this at three and a half. So if you do like the bucks, you can be patient. I do think the pros will bet this one down for you. We'll wait and see too. A meka-a-buka didn't look right in that game.

It looked like he was playing in a not-fully healed hamstring. And now they lost again, Mike Evans for this. season. Does he just force it in this game? I'm like, Aemukkah, he comes out there because they need them. Like they can't rely on, was it Tess Johnson? This kid that's like, Matt Johnson. Yeah, he's incredible, but

it's, it's asking a lot for Baker. And you saw it last night, Baker just didn't have his game. So, yeah, it's interesting. Short week, second back-to-back road game for the bucks, minus four and a half. I thought this would be a more public side. Right now, the money is definitely towards the Saints, the tickets right now.

It's about every book is about 90% towards this buck's team. So there's no doubt this is going to be a pros versus shows. The public will be on the books. And you're right. The pros, we might be enamored with the Saints team. We're buying fools gold here. Yeah. Look, I watched that game last night.

And then when I was thinking about it late night and then, well, late night for me, you know, 1030. And then this morning, the Lions hammered the box. with man-to-man coverage. They were awesome. And they were on one last night. That defense was playing out of its mind. The pass rush was insane.

That's the saints, they live in zone coverage. And like, Baker lives beating zone coverage. Baker is the best quarterback in the league on an EPA per attempt basis against zone. I think he's going to eat these guys up. I think, and I think coming back, like, it's going to be quieter. It's not going to be amped the way Detroit was.

Like, that was a, we love Detroit, no matter what the number last night, because we believe, like, Baker's Magic is going to run out against a far superior team. I don't think it runs out against a team that plays the exact defense he likes to eat up. That's my take on the game. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, next news? Huge news.

we created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys?

I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas.

And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends.

Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Last night, a blown call changed a game. The morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions,

the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. SportsSlice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to SportsSlice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis.

And I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay. Jenchian win. I mean, she went down at three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay.

Listen, Lina Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now, and I actually can win on any surface, because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat. to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Tennessee at Indy.

Indy is a 13 and a half point favorite. Simon, our beliefs are being tested. That's all I can say about this. Yeah, we're supposed to be in Tennessee, but I don't care. I'll take the Colts. Are you taking the Colts or are we just, are we like, you're actively going to take the Colts here. Yeah, and I'll throw them in our money land around Rob and I'll get him down to,

I don't even, I need to get him down to five and a half. I'll take him down to six and a half. Six and a half. That's how much I don't respect this Tennessee team. They're just terrible. So yeah, can they get a backdoor junk touchdown? Sure. But you have arguably the best running team in football,

the Colts going against one of the worst run defenses in all football. And you simply just have this scheme around Jeffrey Simmons. We don't know if he's going to play. because remember he missed half the game with a hamstring injury. Yeah, I just, I don't know. It has come down. It was at 14 and now it's 13 and a half. Yeah, I'm sure pros are betting Tennessee.

Like you said, Christian Gonzalez shut down Tennessee's number one receiver. He didn't play in the game. Ridley didn't play. So they don't even have their number one receiver. He could play in this game, which they need. But I think Lockett asked to be released from them. Like they're just totally dysfunctional right now, this Tennessee team. So they need Ridley back.

They need some type of offensive offensive weapon because the guys they had out there last week just were not getting open, getting it done. So it's bad for Tennessee. This just feels like a really bad matchup. And like we always say, these big spreads and divisional games, weird things can happen. But you also saw exactly what happened last week with the Raiders where some of these teams just can't save themselves right now. And they're running into teams that are just buzz saw. So we'll see the Colch just feel like a really well-oiled machine right now. I don't see them taking this game lately because it is a divisional game.

I think they'll be fully prepared and ready to play in this one. And yeah, it's painful. It's the Tennessee team that probably is a good number, 14 and a half, 14, but at 13.5, I'll take that by I'll take the Colts. I actually feel like when you're playing the way the Colts are right now and you're dominating the way they are, you want to keep doing it. Like you are so freaking motivated to continue to be that excellent and to elevate yourself into the upper tier of the NFL ranks right now.

I think they're so freaking psyched with the way they're playing and they're coached so well right now. I don't see them taking even a second of this game lately against the Titans. I'm glad you said it because I didn't want to be on the Titans, I was antsy about taking the Colts. I appreciate you booing my confidence on this game. Dallas at the Denver Broncos, the Denver Broncos are currently three-point favorites. First game I thought about on Sunday night continues to be in my head. The Denver Broncos

minus three will be Chad's choice. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing? You can't make a choice. My choice. We can't run from where we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? In my model, Simon, I like a good team as a home fave that struggled against the good team that won easily. The Cowboys won easily against second and third tier receivers on Sunday against the commanders.

I know you want to say something about Bo Nix. So before I dig into it, I want to hear what you have to say. Yeah, we fought over this one. We both love it. I was happy to hear that you were making this your choice. It's just a great spot, great number. Hopefully people can get this while they can. This is going to go up to minus three and a half, minus four.

It's just a number that's to keep moving on the simple fact that, yes, the Cowboys can score at will. They are an incredible offense. this should be a bad match for them. Denver's defense, who is not impressed at all this season, they need to step up here and really shut down a Cowboys offense that, yes, they're incredible, they're a juggering up, but it's usually against bad teams and bad defenses. This is a real test for this Cowboys offense that,

you know, they're just going through everybody. Dak, we've seen it. He does struggle with pressure. We've talked to all the injuries of the offensive line. This should be the matcher for Denver. And on the Boe-Nicks side, I mean, the guy said records, right? first quarterback in NFL history, two rushing touchdowns, two passing touchdowns in the same quarter. It's insane. Like he just, what he did against that Giants team, he was deader than dead

for three quarters. He did absolutely nothing. He was terrible. And to have the narcissistic self-belief that he does is incredible. Like, that's why these guys are professionals, right? They, to have that belief you can come back and win that game, that is something they should build on. So I love the spot for Denver. It should be a launching point for this team, but they had so much hype coming to the year and that hype has been extinguished, right? Most people,

you know, I just don't think they're on this team that they were before the year. Like, no one's saying this team is going to beat the chiefs in this division at all, right? Maybe some are still out there, but I just think this is a team that's still being a little bit sold low on in Denver, especially after all these people

we bet on last week, they're mad at them. Like even though they won for us, and our money line around Robin, they didn't cover people's teasers. They were horrible on the number. I bet him at seven, and I'm furious. Right. And you say one of the craziest things ever,

you thought you still had a chance to cover in that game. I was just like, chat is just a crazy person. By the way, narcissistic self-belief. It's not just for quarterbacks. It's also for suburban dads living in central Connecticut, just admiring the fall foliage. Yeah, you're a crazy person. I just love when you said it.

I was like, I can't believe you honestly think you have any right or even a chance to cover. If you don't know by now that I live in an irrationally optimistic world and I always believe that the fluky is going to go my way. Like in my house, my wife believes that if there is a 1% chance of something bad happening or having it, she or me or our kids are going to have it. if there is a 1% chance of something good happening, I believe it is going to happen to me. That's a better way to live, honestly. It's very good way to live. But yeah, Denver, grab it when you can.

It just feels a great match for them against a Cowboys team that is better than we all perceived, but this just feels like a type of game that's just a touchdown game for the Denver. Matchup game. My belief is a matchup game. I just like, I like the Broncos. defense and how they pressure, how they are very good at keeping teams from converting on third down.

I think they shot themselves in the foot so many times against the Giants. They had, I think, four defensive penalties, three PIs or roughing the passer, all of which converted into big plays when the Giants were out of it. Like, I watched that game because I was invested, and it was so frustrating because the Giants, the Broncos defense kept giving it back to the Giants again and again and again. So me, this was about spot, about perception, and about individual matchup, Broncos defensive edge Nick Benito versus Dak Prescott. Chad's choice, Denver Broncos, minus three.

Are you ready for the primetime spotlight? Because I know there's a couple games in here that we want to talk about that I think are really interesting. We're going to bet these games, people are going to think about these games. going to be exciting to sweat these games at the end of Sunday and Monday. First game, Green Bay at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is down to three from three and a half. You keyed on this game. Sunday night. I hope people were listening because I bet it at three and a half. I know you did too. How do we feel at three? Still on Pittsburgh, but I also have got, I got some calls from some guys about it. So

it's nice to see the number moved our way. I know some pros are really like, Green Bay in the spot. So still confident in it, but obviously I wish people could have got the three and a half. And I think we might be able to still get back there. Like if pros really like the Green Bay this much, maybe we'll get back up to it. The view they have, which I agree with, which I understand they're coming to the market with is Parsons looked like he finally has gotten right with that defense last week against Brissette. Isn't this quarterback the exact same as what he went against last week?

A quarterback that can't move that much that's older in the pocket. And I get that. I just, I think we both agree. I just don't not trust this Green Bay team. I don't think they're good. And it's like, isn't this a Tomlin spot and a Tomlin number? Like a three and a half, three plus three dog at home, Sunday night. I wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to say about that.

I try to keep it real simple. Football is our game. Our business is winning. And when we win in, the business is being handled. And when you're not, is not. I just, Aaron Rogers against Green Bay, all of it. I can't get away from it. It's killing me.

Like I love this one. I'm so torn here. There's pros another side because I thought this was going to be Joe's versus pros just like these other games where it's like public will be all over Green Bay. Professionals will bet Pittsburgh just because this is such a matchup where Pittsburgh got embarrassed. The last time we saw them, they got lit up by Joe Flacco. Joe Flacco made fun of them basically saying he didn't even know the offense. He just needed to, he knew if he just waited, there's going to be windows in that defense because Pittsburgh runs the same exact defense.

Even when they're giving up 30 points in the game, they didn't change. defense the entire game. So if that's not a rally week from Tomlin this weekend, that defense, right, I feel like we have to pay for the loss, Chad. Like, this is just a game we can't avoid. If we back Tomlin are certain spots, we know when to fade. It feels like we have really good rhythm with Tomlin, no one to back and when to go against them. Somebody got to be all in for everybody to be all in. We might bite the bullet here. This might be a bad one. The pros might be right on Green Bay, but I can't avoid it, especially at plus three and a half, couldn't avoid it. plus three, still love it, still think this should be under a field goal.

Good value to me on this Pittsburgh team. And I'm shocked. I really am that it came down. I really thought we would be able to give out three and a half on this show. But yeah, early professional money is coming up Pittsburgh. It is what it is. Mike Tomlin, nine, two, and three against a spread as a dog of three or more at home. Thanks to Kimmer Sports.

man, an opportunity to get a quality dude at a discount. Like, what are we talking about? The thing I can't get out of my head is, you know, I love Matt LaFleur. And I was on the Packers a few weeks ago off of thereby because I thought he would have sort of fixed a lot of the challenges this offense has been having. And they still looked bad against the Cardinals. Like, they have talent all over the field. Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft, Jordan Love, the defense has Micah Parsons. They've got really good players, and they don't seem to be able to figure out how to be a great,

complimentary, awesome team right now. They had a good game against the Lions, and who knows? Maybe that was just a fluky game for the Lions, right? And so it's hard to look back at that game and think, oh, the Packers are amongst the elite in the NFL right now, and that's what this line. is saying, and I think it's discounting a little bit of the success the Steelers have had, and the fact that the last time anyone saw them was against the Bengals. But don't forget, this is now, the Steelers have basically had one game in almost four weeks, right?

Because they had the buy heading into the Bengals game, and now they've been off for 10 days. So it's just another chance for them to get healthy and to get better and make adjustments. and Mike Tomlin at home as a dog after a game that he's lost, he just gets better. I know, we can't avoid it. We can't avoid it. We love it. Washington at Kansas City, so listen, this game's at 10.5.

Kansas City is a 10.5. Crazy. Obviously, it was 4.5 on Sunday afternoon. I will tell you that as soon as Jaden Daniels limped off the field on Sunday, I went to try to bet Kansas City at minus 4.5, and it was showing it was available, but it wouldn't accept my ticket. Here's my question.

That's also how you get banned. You know? I've been banned. I'm down to two places I can bet in Connecticut. Look at you. This game, do we have to ask ourselves, forget about passing it because Jaden Daniels isn't playing and we've lost six points of value? Do we have to think about playing the Chiefs?

Because from a matchup point of view, maybe we are getting value. Maybe the commanders are actually still, should be 13 point underdogs. Shue, I don't know. It's tough because Mariotta, honestly, this year is not that big, in my model, not that big of a grade of a step down compared to Jay and D&N. Just because Jay and Dene has been hurt all year. He's playing on a bum leg and he's not look good. Where Mariotta, I know he's up and down, that's Mariotta's style.

Like he's going to run for 20 yards and maybe throw a 660-yard bomb. The next pass fumble it, the fumble of snap. It's just, that's the merriott experience. That's why he's a backup. But 10 and a half is a lot of points here at Hard Rock. That's a lot of points. So I'm tempted to do it. I know the chiefs look like an absolute juggernaut and like the best team of football,

which they are. But that Raiders thing was unique. That's a team they hate, a team that talks smack about them. A team that, I think their DB was putting up a picture of Kermit the Kermit the Frog or... Yeah. And like something like

mocking Mahomes. So it's like they thoroughly embarrassed that that Raiders team. They literally, I don't know if you've watched it into that Chief's game. They put a backup in,

with like a minute to go in the third quarter. And they basically kneeled down at the end of the game, even though they were going to have to punt anyway back to the Raiders. They were just like, we're not even to run a play against you guys.

That's how, like, they're not even going to run the clock out. So I just, think it's a lot to ask my homes we talked those stats he just doesn't blow teams out they just don't show everything usually and that raiders one felt like personal where

Washington god willing chat we get down by 21 in the third quarter we're going to be alive with mariotta like he's never going to stop fighting so I'm not going to force this one in because I don't have it's Tuesday we have no idea of McLaren's playing you have no idea if Debo's playing

if Mario doesn't have the number one number two receiver I don't care if this is 13 and a half. I'm just not going to be putting money into this Washington team. And I'm happy to do what I did last week with the Chiefs, throw them in a teaser, get the number down lower, even though I didn't need to. It's just I always feel more comfortable doing that in the home.

So, yeah, this is a game where you said, we missed it. We should have got the Chiefs. We knew Daniels probably wasn't going to play on this one. Anyone that got that early number, great play. At this point, it just feels like it's either Washington to me or Chiefs in a teaser, which just feels like the only option. All right. So we like Baltimore, six and a half.

We're thinking about New England minus seven. Simon says is Houston minus one. Carolina plus seven and a half has brass ball's potential. Who else are we talking about? Denver and Pittsburgh. Well, also, Indy minus 13 and a half. Denver minus three, Pittsburgh plus three and a half.

I mean, it's a hard week. There's just, you know, there's fewer games. So significantly fewer games. But that's what we're thinking about. That's where we're leaning. Hopefully people can get some of these numbers before they move. That Denver line is definitely going to move soon.

This has been Sharper Square. Part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Thursday with the games. We are narrowing down. Plus our Survivor pick, our head-to-head battle, brass balls, so much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel. Also download from Spotify.

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