The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 9 Bets: Chiefs-Bills, Vikings-Lions, Cardinals-Cowboys, Colts-Steelers, Niners-Giants and more

Episode Date: October 28, 2025

NFL betting expert Chad Millman is joined by pro sports gambler Simon Hunter as they welcome back longtime producer Matt Mitchell as a new member of The Volume family. Together Chad and Simon react to last night's Monday Night Football game between the Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs, and then provide initial betting picks and predictions for NFL Week 9 starting with Thursday Night Football, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Miami Dolphins. Then our two gambler hosts look at every matchup on the board to give their top NFL picks, including their best bets for Sunday Night Football, the Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Commanders. They also dive into the red hot Indianapolis Colts led by Daniel Jones facing Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers, a huge AFC matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as the Kansas City Chiefs play the Buffalo Bills, and Bo Nix and his Denver Broncos traveling to play C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. We get a long look at the Arizona Cardinals facing the Dallas Cowboys led by Dak Prescott, as well as a huge NFC battle with Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota Vikings taking on Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions, along with coverage of every other game on the board. #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:14:15 - BALTIMORE RAVENS VS MIAMI DOLPHINS 0:22:35 - CHICAGO BEARS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS 0:25:30 - ATLANTA FALCONS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOT 0:28:17 - LA CHARGERS VS TENNESSEE TITANS 0:32:40 - MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS DETROIT LIONS 0:39:11 - CAROLINA PANTHERS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS 0:42:40 - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS 0:51:05 - SAN FRANCISCO NINERS VS NEW YORK GIANTS 0:52:44 - DENVER BRONCOS VS HOUSTON TEXANS 0:58:30 - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS LA RAMS 0:59:45 - JACKSONSVILLE JAGUARS VS LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 1:02:43 - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS BUFFALO BILLS  1:07:10 - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS  1:11:09 - ARIZONA CARDINALS VS DALLAS COWBOYS -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you.

you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Why are we all so obsessed with romance? On the Radio 831 podcast, join us, Sanjana Basker and Tyler McCall, as we unpack all the trending tropes, fuzzy adaptations, book talk drama, and celebrity love stories with hot takes and sharp guests. Each episode digs into what these stories reveal about desire, fantasy, identity, and how we love now. Listen to the Radio 831 podcast on the IHeart Radio. app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Deanna Maria Riva, and on my new podcast, How Hard Can It Be? I call on my Gen X squad from Ohio to Hollywood as we navigate Midlife's most fantastic BS.

Unfiltered conversations from night sweats to futas to scheduling sex. Wait, what sex? Is it just me, or does every woman my age want to look at Pinterest instead of having sex sometimes? They say we can't polish a turd, but we're sure going to try. so let's get blunt with laughs, tears, or tears of laughter. Listen to How Hard Can It Be with Gianna Maria Riva on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas.

And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was harmed. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis keep coming to him.

know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock That we are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the square sharper. It makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I'm joined. As always, by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better, Simon, Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, I'm a little worried.

My life is peaking right now. And honestly, could not be better. Is it because of Tyrese Maxie and Edgecombe? Yeah. I mean, VJ, I think they set a rookie record, not a rookie record, but a back court record for most points and assists and rebounds and everything through the first three games. And your Bulls are undefeated as well.

Your three and O as well. Between VJK. Edgecombe and Matis Buzellas. I feel like we are in a golden age of fandom here. Obviously, last night, I wanted to bring this up for a second because I've got a question for you. Freddie Freeman with his second World Series walk-off home run in his many years. I said a flyball to center field. Bar show's going back before the cup hits a week. I asked my kid the other day, my kids, by the way, my kid turns 19 today. And I say that because he's not anyone who grew up in the world where baseball was anything anybody was rooting for.

It's clearly like below NBA and NFL in terms of fandom and in terms of audience and all those kinds of things. But I said to him game winning, game seven winning walk off World Series home run, catching the game winning, the game winning touchdown, scoring the game winning touchdown in the Super Bowl. game seven game winning shot to win the NBA finals world cup game winning goal what do you choose what did you choose what do you choose from those I mean the home run obviously you can't beat it but I'll always go with March Madness last shot I don't care like to me we missed a mo I'm a Duke fan, we missed that moment with Butler Hayward, half court heave off the backboard, just missed.

Like that, that to me is peak. Like it doesn't get a bunch better, 21, 22 year old hitting that shot, David versus Goliaths, but I'm with the basketball one to me his peak. Huh. What's interesting is me, 54-year-old man living in the suburbs, my son, 19-year-old in college, wildly different experiences growing up as sports fans. We both chose Game 7 walk-off home run in the World Series. And I've been trying to think about why.

And after the Freddie Freeman stuff, I realized it. It's about pace. It's about moment. It's about time. You hit that home run. And it's like 15 seconds of anticipation and glory, right? Because you know it's going out. The entire stadium is on pins and needles.

It goes out. Everyone goes nuts. And then you got 10 seconds of running around the bases. And when you hit home plate, it is just the enthusiasm, the passion, the happiness, the enthrall of all of it just lasts longer. The anticipation is greater. Everything else is such a moment. Like you can't believe it. This you get to soak in it.

That's why I think the Game 7 World Series walk off home run. easily the best. Yeah, I told you, and Bay's got to be careful. Baseball is having a moment. I thought after Barry Bonds, I thought I would never see a player like that ever again. Like Barry Bonds to me, you can say cheated, we all know he probably cheated,

but allegedly, he's to me the greatest player ever. The guy, like, he couldn't pitch him. He had to walk him. He was so incredible. Otani is just the ultimate, he's the greatest athlete probably will ever see in sports for right now. I'm sure there'll be another one that comes along,

but never seen anything like it. Like he just, even last night they interviewed him. I think he went four for four hitting something insane. Couple homers, double. They said, how you feeling? He goes, I need to get to bed. I had to pitch tomorrow. And it's like, it's just an insane world we're living in.

Like, I joked with a buddy, we're big baseball fans. He invented something that never existed before. That's how you know you are a once in a lifetime game changer. I know, Tani, it's when you strike out the side to start the game and then we hit an opening home run in the first that bat. an Otani. So it's like, the guy is just a living legend. Otani, Wambayama, Shea, Luca, Mahomes. Mahomes. Like, we are living in an age of unprecedented athletic ability. Listen, speaking of ability, we got a big announcement. Big, huge. Okay, okay. We went three and two

last week in our five favorite picks from our Sunday morning show. Left the bunch of wins out there. people we did we did it's like how do we go three and two when probably the best week we had all year overall it is and it is we dodged i think favorites went 10 and two so i'll take it yeah we won with the patriots the texans and the broncos we lost with the giants and the steelers for the year we're 24 16 through eight weeks with our five favorites but that's not the news a lot of old heads may remember our producer matt mitchell who matt Mitchell from the fighting city of Rochester, New York, the Paris of Western New York, the Prince of the Bill's Mafia, a made man, Milwaukee's finest. It's really old Milwaukee and Matt Mitchell are the best representatives there are of Milwaukee today. Let's welcome back to the show. Mr. Matt Mitchell. Well, well, well.

Look who it is. Outstanding. Chad, Simon. It's wonderful to be back on these precious hallowed airwaves with you. I resigned my position at Action Network about five weeks ago. I am very grateful to our beneficent overlords now here at Volume for taking me in. And now I get to play totally out of context. Chad Millman drops like this one.

That's Mac Jones right now. he's a witch nipple quarterback. We got Chad's favorite phrase. Hit people in the fucking mouth, run it up their fucking throat. That's it. And my personal favorite. Dad, dad, I have an erection. Who can even remember why these were said in the first place?

But now that I'm back in the saddle here, there's a new sheriff in town. I am thrilled to be here. Before I get the hell out of here and we get to week nine, which is what people care about. I've been at the helm before this season. I've been at the helm of this show from the production side for about seven years. I love this show.

I wanted to share something I've never shared before, and that is because Bill's Chiefs coming up this week, obviously big game for us, Bill's fans. The morning of the 2022 AFC divisional round game, the 13th second game between Buffalo and Kansas City, I actually got a voicemail from Patrick Mahomes. And I know that will come is a shock to a lot of you because I'm a nobody and Patrick Mahomes is the greatest

quarterback in the NFL but for the first time ever I'm going to share that voicemail with you. Are you ready? Yeah, let's hear you. I want you to listen very carefully, Matthew. Before this night's over, I will kill you. But before I kill you, I will make you suffer pain so unimaginable. You will wiggle and beg and pray for the gift of death. But when you wake up and Hell, you won't find peace. You know why, Matthew? Because I'll be there waiting for you again, Matthew. And he was several times waiting for me again, including this weekend. So shout out, Patrick Mahomes. Thank you for haunting both this life and my afterlife to follow in hell. Well, listen, Matt, we're so glad to see your face. It wasn't the same.

without you. I know people will love hearing all of the ridiculous drops. They will get to enjoy a timeless and evocative experience in audio, which is your love. Now we can like talk about the bills and their tragedy of a season that is about to unfold and we can do it with you in our heads and reference the fact that this is this is unbelievably painful for you. Every day, waking nightmare. If anyone out there has any questions, complaints, want to voice displeasure in any specific way on Twitter, oh boy, Uncle Mitch, O L, boy, Uncle Mitch. You can say whatever you want to me, and I'll make sure it gets filtered up the chain. So feedback is always again. Best of luck, boys. Go outside, nerd. Get out. Go. I ain't got time to be distracted by your worthless chime.

It's gone. All right. Well, look, we're going to talk about this Kansas City Buffalo game as we get into it. is the Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate. We're going to check out that Sunday AM show. If you want the games that we'll be our official five after we've had a chance to review the latest moves and injuries, there have definitely been lots of breaking moves, late breaking moves on Sundays that have impacted our picks this season.

Don't forget, you can get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe and like the video download from Sharper Square on Apple Pods. Spotify, wherever you get your pods. Okay. Let me just say two off the top. Matt Mitchell is here. Like he said, if you guys want to talk to him, get on social media on Twitter chat, he's running our account. I mean, me and chat, we're not the biggest Twitter guys, but Matt Mitchell's on Sharper Square on Twitter posts in our videos. Everyone out there, we really appreciate spreading the word. I mean, they can't see your likes anymore

on Twitter. People like all of our videos. Keep giving us love. We appreciate it. Yeah, like on YouTube, everything. We love the YouTube love. If you want the real authentic show you want man Mitchell with the amazing drops got you got the podcast the podcast version it's it truly is the best version we do want your clicks on youtube but matt with the drops it's it's the third piece we need it for the show it's what makes the show so great so if you haven't checked up the podcast version check it out it's it's definitely unique with matt's drops we love we love that matt mitchell is back in charge all right let's kick things off with thursday night football amazon prime eight 15 here's my question

The real bet that I wanted to make, which already the cat's out of the bag, John Harbaugh will definitely and clearly announce his starting quarterback in advance of this game. Yes was minus 1,000, no was off the board. I mean, look, it's priced in. The Ravens opened at 7.5 point favorites. They continue to be 7.5 point favorites. Part of me feels like we're getting value here. because if not for the short week

and like how the home teams have been doing in these games, I do think anecdotally betting the home favorite has been better than betting the home underdog and now we're basically getting Lamar Jackson off of what is it, five weeks of rest

against a dolphins defense that against the run other than this past week has truly been horrific and the Falcons were not at full strength. So talk me off. off of betting the Ravens.

We might have to call this trap week, Chad. Traps, by the way. Traps. It fucking feels like that, right? It needs to be, though. Like, the public, we talk about it's a new age, and we have adjusted. I mean, last week proved that. I still can't believe we had a winning week when the favorites went 10 and two,

whatever it was, something insane like that. I think it was 11 and two. After last night. After last night. And they all won by an average of like 11 points or something like that. I mean, our money land run Robin, if we just, we could have just gave it on the spread.

We didn't even need, like, that's how chalky this past week was. So I just, everyone out there, you can keep getting away with it, but it's going to catch you. And this week is line up to a week

to catch people here. And this started off with this game. I can't tell people to back, like you said, Lamar hasn't played in five weeks, which is good, he's rested, but he's also totally out of rhythm.

So this is the perfect team to get in rhythm against that he could do it. I'm not going to force us to make this one of our five or one of my favorite bets, but like you're telling me I'm getting in Miami plus seven and a half two at home against a Ravens defense that I still think is highly suspect. Like you said,

I mean, I went back and watched a Caleb game. There were opportunities there. There were plays to be made. He just had an off day. This is to his environment. It's at home as, you know, as much as I don't want to give him credit,

when he plays bad defenses, you know, that scheme. that run scheme they have, it all works, right? So that was the biggest thing I took away too from that game last week was just, Ben Noi, I know it's not the biggest name, he's an older guy.

Him being injured and the Ravens not having true pass rushers, that's like a real thing. There was no guy that scared you, I mean, you know that with the game last week. He had time, like he's just him doing stupid stuff, and missing throws is why they didn't work last week. So I am shocked to see all the money, all the tickets, everything right now is on, this Ravens side, like, I don't know about you.

I feel like I got away with one last week with that one. We kind of stole it. We all look. We totally got away with it last week. You know, even down to the very last play of the game, we talked about it on Sunday. The Bears still easily could have gotten in the back door because you could have seen them going for two after scoring a touchdown and making this a 30 to 24 game. We got way, way lucky with that game.

But that also tells me something. The fact this number hasn't moved. off of the seven half after the news about Lamar basically being set, basically being said he's going to be the starter. And that all the money and the tickets are coming in on the Ravens, this number hasn't moved tells me that somebody somewhere likes the dolphins, aggressively. Which is shocking because, like, as much as I get it,

like I talk about this is a nice to a spot. It's like we are talking about backing a dolphins team after a huge road win when the whole house is on fire. We're not talking about it. So I just, I'm on Miami. I'm just, I can't get over. As someone that's taking a position now on the Ravens, obviously a couple weeks ago to win their division,

everything like that, this is no doubt a must win game. But this is the type of game that does trip up this type of team. So you can get plus 330 plus 340 right now, Miami's money line. If you're taking the plus 7.5, you have to sprinkle a little bit on that Miami money line. It's just a weird spot.

It's a short, week on the road for a Ravens team that has a quarterback that is not in any type of sync or flow with the offense. So if this was, if Lamar had played this past week and this was a Sunday game, I think this is a worthy number. Minutes seven and a half after all those things is worthy. No, no game and a short week for this Ravens team that, you know, they're not a juggernaut. This is not Ravens of last year.

This is a team hanging on by what feels like a thread right now, this Ravens team. minus seven and a half is just totally, totally aggressive priced in line. Feels like too much respect for a team from last year and not a team for this year. So again, another time where I just am shocked the books have opened this. But like Chad said, the fact they haven't budged, it shows the books and some betters are taking very big positions on this Miami team. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what?

We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called. Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts.

Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down?

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas, and then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm CJ Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs. without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before.

And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us

on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball, like, after you go through a training camp with that, I said,

you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Agency, the ability to know that we're the experts in our own body. On the podcast cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where

black women can show up fully and be heard. I wholeheartedly think, you know, you hit 30, you shouldn't have to share one with anybody. Mm-hmm. From navigating friendships and healing to setting boundaries and prioritizing your mental health. These are real, honest conversations. We don't always get to have out loud. Totally unreasonable with different parts of life, right? Like, oh, have all three meals and make sure you're mindful during all of them?

Absolutely not. During one meal, I'm standing. I'm standing and handing my children food. Because healing, empowerment, and resilience aren't just ideas. They're practices. And this Mental Health Awareness Month, there's no better time to pour back into yourself. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. This week on Crimless, we're joined by our first ever guest.

Sorry, our first ever human guest. I don't think I could be in the same room with Shamrock the pair. I'd be too nervous. That's right. The very funny Will Ferrell joins Rory Scovel and me, Josh Dean, for an episode dedicated to the many crimes committed by people also named Will Ferrell. They called to his fellow officer for the nippers. What are the nippers?

Very good question. No, I was thinking, would that be a good name for like a salad dressing? Simple assault. And it's a play on word, salt? Maybe not. I say we invest and we see. There's only one way to know. This did not amuse the cops.

By the way, normally the cops are amused, but this did not abuse the cops. Will even comes clean about some of his own crimes. I didn't get caught. You know why? If you don't want to be suspected of anything, you whistle as you walk. Woo-hoo-hoo. Listen to Crime List on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. All right. Chicago at Cincinnati, the Bengals are two and a half point underdogs.

The professionals came in on the Bears pretty early. And they should absolutely eat against this team. Right now, Joe Flacco and Trey Hendritsyn both considered day-to-day. Flacco with the shoulder, Henderson with the hip, he did not play in the latter half of that game. They can't get a pass rush. Their last in the league in pass rush,

win rate, which is basically how fast you can get to opponents or beat opponents off the line on passing downs. The Bengals defense gave up 260 yards rushing to the New York Jets. I would think after last week, whether they were playing the Bengals or they were playing the number one rushing defense in the NFL, Ben Johnson is not interested in putting the ball in Caleb's hands in moments of leverage.

He wants the bears to dominate on the ground. That's how he has built his career. Just because the Lions used to score a lot of points doesn't mean that they were just a pass-happy team. They dominated on the ground. That's what he wants the bears to do. We saw the bears do that during their win streak. This has got good opportunity to get back to that.

So it makes sense to me that the money has already come in on the bears. And with, I kind of, I need more intel on Flack Owen Henderson, but the bear is under three to me. I just love so many favorites this week. And you said it's trap week and I know. but the bears are the size here. Yeah, and I honestly was going to be all over the bangles. This was going to be a nice bounce back spot for her, but Flacko is truly banged up.

I don't know if people have looked at this depth chart. You don't want to see what's behind them. You don't want those guys coming here. So, yeah, between these two teams and all their injuries, I need to know who's back in the spare secondary. Not a lot of people. It's back. Right.

So, I mean, that's the thing. It's like, again, we have to give up picks here. you know, the over is probably the spot where most people are going to want to go, but I don't know how you can take a position on that over or side or anything like that without knowing what Flacco's health is. So you're right. Like if you're going to make an early bet here and you have to make a play, bears minus two and a half,

that to me is the safest, regardless of what's going to happen going forward of a bet right now compared to a Bengals team where if it is no flaco, this could easily bump up to four or five, you know, another two or three points. So, yeah, this early line value, your early read here is definitely right on this Bears team. Atlanta at New England, this number is bumped down from five and a half to five at Hard Rock Bet. There's still a bunch of five and a halfs out there. It originally moved on Sunday two points from three and a half up to five and a half.

That was wise guy money moving the number. And totally made sense. He had just seen a Falcons team very short-handed. No Pennix, no Michael Panics. no Drake London. They were without Zach Harrison, who's their leading pass rusher on a very bad pass rush.

They lost Jesse Bates midway through the game. So you could see why the number moved and why the wise guys pounced on it. Also, the Drake May phenomenon continues. Even when he was sacked five times, he was still throwing bombs and breathing touchdowns.

But I understand the byback. I haven't gotten confirmation on who's going to be playing for the Falcons. If I knew it was going to be Pennix, if I knew Drake London was going to be playing, if I knew Jesse Bates was definitely going to be back. Zach Harrison is still questionable. He's the only guy who's gotten any pressure on this defense. I'd be more comfortable playing the Falcons. But until I know who's playing, I kind of can't play this.

Yeah, but it's another game where we're supposed to play the Falcons. This is probably supposed to be three, three and a half line. and, you know, it's just a tough spot for us where it's like, we don't know the health of any of these guys. I have no doubt that even if Kirk is cleared, I don't know if I'm even want to bet it. Maybe if it gets up to seven and a half or some key number like that, I can bet on Kirk, but he just looked so bad and so out of sync last week.

And just someone that's not, you look like someone has not been practicing with the ones, right? You just did not look comfortable at all running that offense. and everything suffered because of that. They couldn't run the ball either against a horrible run defense because the defense knew. We can just stack the box and make Kirk try to beat us. So I'm not going to force it, even though this New England stuff is just insane.

You look at their last couple games. They're playing like a top two, top three AFC team right now. They're just an absolute juggernaut. So, yeah, I'm not in a rush to stand in front of them unless I have a good number. And I know the health of this Falcons team. But, yeah, everyone can tell. If this is Pentex and this is a fully healthy Falcons team,

this number is inflated. But as we sit here right now, properly priced. Like if this is what you're looking for, a Drake May versus Kirk Cousins, yeah, I would take the Patriots here. I'll tell you this, Hard Rock is the only book at five. Every other book is five and a half. So if you want the best number of the Patriots, Hard Rock has it. Los Angeles Chargers visiting the Tennessee Titans.

The number's nine and a half. It's dropped down from 10. So some brave, brave soul, professional syndicate, I don't know what, has come in on the Tennessee Titans. It's a big number to cover for our oft-injured, underperforming heroes in Los Angeles. But this is the week we bet them, right? when they are road favorites against a terrible team after we didn't bet them as home favorites

against a decent team should be an auto play for us on the chargers the team we are constantly chasing and never getting right and it turns out this will be the Titans week to actually play like an NFL team and cover the spread so I just feel like on the field I know what I should do. Mathematically, I know what I should do. Emotionally and spiritually, I kind of just don't want to do anything with this. And I know I'll find things I like more. No, I'll be in a constant battle every week trying to get Chad to fade this Tennessee team. And you missed it last week. Should have been all over the Colts. We missed it. And the same thing here with the Chargers. What is there to back this Tennessee team? They are down. They're number one and number two corners, which you can say

that's not that big of a deal. The number one corner, a guy they paid off the chiefs for millions and millions of dollars, that's a big deal. Your number one run defender, Jeffrey Simmons being out, that's a huge deal. So if it's no Ridley again, no Jeffrey Simmons, like if they're done all these major pieces and they're already a terrible team with bad coaching, minus nine and a half, I will promise you I will get there. I will get there on that Chargers team. No doubt about it. So, yeah, I would love to hate on the charts. and be like, you're right, this is probably a tightened spot, but I still think the books are just, I see clearly now.

I feel like we were just so blind last year. And I just, as someone that's just been fading this Tennessee team, it's the best. It is just the best. They are just such a train wreck, everything about them is, like even their coaching decisions. Like they had a couple punts last week where it's like, does this guy not understand he's playing against a cold team that's just going to keep

scoring against them? Like, you can be fourth and four from your, in 20 and it's a seven point game you should be going for a Tennessee you don't have a functional defense right now so yeah Chargers I'm with you that was last week was their best game of the year I could see them keep rolling here this Chargers team just feels like another great matcher for them where they want to run the ball and there's just no defenders downfield that can stop Ladd McConkey Keenan Allen like that type of I mean they're tight end now for the charge of all of sends a stud this rookie tight end around that gottson I used to love Arronday Gatson I used to love Arronday

when he played for the Dolphins. He had massive hands and was so good at catching the ball. A huge, huge fan of Ronda Gaston. So, yeah, just I get what you're coming from. It's like, is this line too big? I don't think it is. So I'll grab the nine and a half while I still can. And I think this gets back up to 10th and a half.

Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit is an eight and a half point favorite. Very excited to hear. hear your response to my analysis of this game. Because the first thing you said off the top of the show, as soon as you said that, it's trap week, my mind immediately went to this game. And I don't care because Chad's choice,

presented by Hard Rock Bet is going to be the Detroit Lions. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? My choice. We can't run from where we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? And when I bet this on Sunday night, I felt great because I got it at eight and a half.

By Sunday night, it was up to nine and a half. And it seemed like it was just going to steam more aggressively across the board. And then Monday it started dipping down. It got back to nine. It got back to eight and a half. And it's kind of just steady at eight and a half right now. And I truly don't get it. Like, we're talking about a Minnesota Vikings team that has kept J.J. McCarthy on the bench.

He may or may not have been ready, but it's an awfully long time for the injury that he had. And they rolled out Carson Wentz, who was playing with torn labrum, separated shoulder, going out there against the Chargers in agony. Now they're bringing J.J. McCarthy back. against a lion's pass rush that is fierce, against a lion's secondary that is getting Brian Branch back from suspension, Kirby Joseph back from injury, Terry and Arnold back from injury. They are at home. Christian Derisaw left the game last week for the Vikings with a knee injury.

The Lions rushing game, we know it's elite. We know that Dan Campbell and Jared Gough, at home, covered about a 70% clip. And everyone talks about how great the Vikings defense is, and their past defense is good. The rush defense is bad. Not mediocre, not, you know, not something where, oh, they're just not as good as the past defense.

It's just a bad rush defense. It's bottom 10 in multiple advanced analytics categories that bring all of the numbers together to give you a holistic look at the rush defense. rush defense. So I know you're going to tell me it's a trap. I'd walk into this trap all day. Give me the lines. No, not really, though. It's the Vikings on the road with a rookie, technically a rookie starting quarterback, right? It's what is third start or second start. So it's not, there's other games way more stinky than this one. I'm with you on the lines.

I have this at 10, technically getting a point and a half of value. The one bone I do have to pick in life, we all make mistakes and we all have to apologize. Kirk Herb Street, man. The stuff he was saying about Carson Wentz, talking about how he's not acting like a leader, he shouldn't be throwing his helmet and he shouldn't be in pain on the sideline

after getting demolished. Ting you need to act more professional. Okay, you expect apology today or yesterday. It comes out. This guy's playing two straight games with a torn collarbone. He like, double down. double down into it. And it's like, dude, get Kirkhurstreet and his damn dog out of my sport.

I am now officially totally out on this guy. I didn't mind him because he is a wet blanket with an old man, Al Michaels. And sure, let them just talk about nothing for two hours. I do not care. It's Thursday night football. I am just so out on this guy now. I can't tell you how mad I was once I found out that this man was playing with these grueling injuries. And this guy is just telling him to act more professional.

It's like, is this guy out of his mind? This guy doesn't even know half these people on this team because he only watches Big Ten football and college football. I just don't even get me started. Kirk Hershey. It's been obviously a rough night and he hadn't had a lot of help. But to me, when you're the captain of the ship, you're the quarterback, you got to try to hold some of that emotion in. And I know he's frustrated and he's hurt and he's hurt, but it's week seven. You know, there's a long way to go and some of that's just raw emotion.

You'd think that I would have more opinions on the announcers, having been in media for so long, I don't even think about the announcers, other than Troy Aikman, who's the best color guy in the history of sports. But I go to bed at halftime, and it's glorious. I'm not even listening to these guys. I am unfortunately. And, Kirk, get out of my sport. Go back to college where they have drums in the stands during games and all that bullshit. Like, I just cannot have this man in the NFL anymore, disrespecting. my former hero, Carson Lins.

Can you go back to telling me how right I am then? Just I am with you. I love the lines here. Doesn't this feel like a great spot? Great spot. It makes no sense to me. Well, I wanted to dive into it because it's like, okay, maybe this is a Floress line, right?

Let me dive into how has golf done against these Flores' defenses in the past? And truly really well, like going back to 2022, the Lions beat them. 34 to 23. The next game, 23, they beat him 30 to 24. Again, this is with Kirk Cousins being the quarterback of this Vikings team, keeping these games kind of close.

Okay, let's go Sam Darnold year. That was a really, the first game they played, 31, 29. It was a really great game by Sam Donald. Again, you've seen a pattern here of 30 points every time against his floor's defense. And then, of course, we remember last year, the decide number one seed, golf, this Detroit team, beat the hell. out of the Vikings. He beat him 31 to 9 to be the one seed last year. So I'm with you in the fact that every match I've seen golf play against his Florida's defense, he's had 30 points or more.

I really don't see this kid coming in here and putting up 21, 22 points against this Lions team. So I know pretty shocking, Chad. I'm with you on it. I'm excited to dive into the trends here, but of all the quarterbacks that I just don't like betting his big favorites, I've never wavered that I always feel confident. Yeah. Betting golf as a big favorite at home indoors. So if I've been standing on it, we've been doing it, I'll join you, brother. I love your Chad's choice this week.

Fantastic. I love it. It's super chalky, though. It's like the biggest public play of the week, but I don't care. Of course it's chalky, but that's been. Everyone has the same thought we do. That's been winning occasionally, and I don't mind being on the right side of the public. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock,

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call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Carolina at Green Bay, this number is 12 and a half for the Green Bay Packers. They finally played like the full and complete team that everyone thought they could be. Jordan Love completed 20 straight passes in the game. The Packers outscored the Steelers 21 to 6 in the final 19. minutes and 17 seconds of the game. Do you know how I know it's exactly 19 minutes and 17 seconds? I don't.

Because on what was it, Sunday night, the Packers were up at half time, I forgot what it was. Pittsburgh was, 17 to 6, whatever it was. 177. Yeah, something like that. 16, something, I think it was 16. 16-7. So I just been staying up way too late and I got to go to bed. And so I go to bed at half-time and I'm ready to turn off the like because I like to read for a little bit before I go to bed. It helps me fall asleep. And I say to my wife as I'm rolling over, hey, just type into Google,

give me Steelers, Packers score right now. And she gave me the score. She said it was 1914 with 543 left in the game. In the third. In the third, I mean. Yeah. You're with me. Thank you. And I'm like, okay, great. So when I woke up and so I was 35, 25, I remembered exactly what the score was and the time was when I went to bed. And by the way, I can't recommend going to bed at half time of a game when you have a bet enough because otherwise you're spending the next three hours, Adjada, better's math, stressing out, and then you're not falling asleep when you have no impact on the outcome and you can wake up and feel better, and it's a two-minute thing.

Yeah, and obviously bad bed by us, Pittsburgh. Felt good at halftime, like we were saying, but, yeah, this, again, I want to put with the refs, but basically the game chat, stupid enough came down to Rogers, thought he on off-sides, the refs didn't call it, even though it was clear off-sides, playing his day, off-sides with a defense. They punt, give the ball act to Jordan Love. I think it was 30-10. blitz in his face.

He has a underthrowing ball just off his back foot, Jordan Love. And Tucker Kraft, a little bit of a push off, but just an insane play by him catches and takes the ball, say 70 yards downfield, Tucker Kraft. And after that point, I think they scored like three straight times.

Yeah, it was just over. They scored 21 points. Jordan Love finally got in rhythm and they were just unstoppable. And yeah, this is the type of game where even if this was Bryce Young, I'd probably still try to find a way to be in the Packers. Like we always do these adjusted lines,

I'll find a way to get there. But at minus 12 and a half, I don't have confidence betting Jordan Love it that big of a number. And Panthers-wise, too much unknown right now. We don't know about Bryce. Yeah. And like I told you, there's no world I'm going to put money on Andy Dalton again. So, yeah, I'll be patient here.

Maybe do some early teasers on this Packers team. But the hope is if it is Bryce Young, maybe it drops it below 10. We get a better number on teasers, whatever, take a position. But this is a game I'm just not betting this week. Bryce Young ran on Monday, but we will know more about his status on Wednesday. Indianapolis Colts, the juggernauts, at the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three.

So look, we got caught in a rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot on Sunday night. They were three and a half. We bet it. Did we learn that his rah-rah mojo cannot overcome consistently bad past coverage and aging defensive backs on Sunday night? Did we learn that it's a problem when the player generating the most results from pressure is not T.J. Watt or Alex Highsmith, but a, linebacker named Nick. Did we learn? It's a problem when you're playing a lot of man coverage

and a lot of single high safety against quarterbacks. Who can eat that up, including, by the way, Daniel Jones, who's been dicing up single high safety coverage. So that's a problem. That's a problem. I don't want to get stuck rar-riing our way that he would know. another L because of what our history says. Yeah, because this is definition of a trap spot for this Colts team.

They're an absolute juggernaut, 7-1 playing against a Pittsburgh team that not only they lost two in a row, they've looked downright, like Chad just said, embarrassing, terrible, horrible, atrocious defensively in those games. So minus three on the Colts, I probably will still take that number as we see here right now. Like to me, Pittsburgh should be plus. three plus three and a half plus four up there not just sitting right now like they are you know it's it's a colts number still at minus three so i know it's the stinkiest chalkiest bet ever but chalk has been winning like we've said and home field it's just not hitting like you used to and a couple

games i'm forced enough to take some of these dogs at home but i just can't get there in pittsburg that was all lined up for them right the first half they gave up an opening drive touchdown and then they had a kicker missed two field goals, and it's all there. It was just all lined up for that type of Tomlin game. The defense had rallied. They were playing better, looking better. And they just all, the offense and the defense just fell off a cliff in the second half. It's just, like Chet said, it ain't hitting there like he used to.

Like this is, even go back two, three years ago with Mason Rudolph. We would be all over Pittsburgh here in this spot, but I can't get there. This Colts team does feel like an absolute juggernaut. And maybe I can get us to avoid taking the Colts. on Sunday, but as we say here right now, it's like I love this team at minus three. It just feels like they're still being undervalued by the market.

They're just, in what world is this close? We're going to need a total meltdown for Daniel Jones. And when you have the MVP as a running back, does that happen? It's just, like you just said, they're going to have to play single high safety to take away this run game. And Daniel Jones has been burning it,

burning it. So I'm just trying to find reasons, trying to look at the numbers, finding for Pittsburgh, can't do it, even though, like Chad said, every ounce inch of our body is telling us to take Pittsburgh here. And this is the definition of a trap. But I just, once again, can't get there on this Pittsburgh team. You just said the magic words. And I love that when we're in a mind meld because we have not discussed this. But you said, undervalued an MVP. And the other day, yesterday, I was sort of thinking about this game. And I was thinking about Jonathan Taylor. And

talked about a couple games this year we've backed the Colts because of Jonathan Taylor, not because of Daniel Jones. So of course I had to go check the MVP odds to see where is Jonathan Taylor in the current race to be MVP after the weekend that he had against the Titans. Right now, the people who are ahead of Jonathan Taylor in the MVP race, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Drake May, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, What? My guy hurts up there? He's not up.

He's, Oh my God. I think he's behind him. He's leading the league in total touchdowns. He's got one pick and he's played the hardest schedule on football. Daniel Jones. This is, oh my God.

I'm about to lose my mind right now because I don't look at MVP shit, but holy hell. Daniel Jones, Jordan Love, Jared Goff. And then, and then Jonathan Taylor. at 20 to 1. That's still, honestly, that's too high for Hamlet Taylor. Yeah. Even though he's been incredible.

Hold on one second. Oh, by the way, since yesterday, Jonathan Taylor has dropped from 20 to 1 to 16 to 1 ahead of Jordan Love, Jared Goff, and Jalen Hertz, who was just behind Jonathan Taylor. But here's what's crazy about Jonathan Taylor. Three straight game, three touchdowns, right? He had some.

crazy record like that. Three games, three touchdowns this season. The last running back, and he's had, I think, three touchdown, three touchdown games this season. The last running back to have that many was Laudani and Tomlinson with five when he won the MVP in 2006. The only other running back to win MVP between 2006 and this year is Adrian Peterson when he had, you know, 2,000 yards for the Vikings in 2012. Jonathan Taylor has had 10 touchdowns in the past four games. The first time that has happened in a four game span since 2015. And this one from our good buddy Bill Barnwell at ESPN,

who posted this yesterday in his always must-read Monday recap column. Jonathan Taylor has accounted for 3.9% of all the league's rushing yards by a running back this season. His team is 7 and 1. And thank God, even in the past 24 hours since I looked at this, his odds have shrunk a little bit. So there is some semblance of common sense amongst NFL betters for recognizing Jonathan Taylor having an historic year. By the way, he is minus 250 to win offensive player of the year. So we know that's a running back.

We know that's the running back award. Yeah. But it's just ridiculous that we become so. a quarterback league, quarterback focus league, that a guy who is doing things that is really carrying this team. I can, Jonathan Taylor is the most important player on this team right now. And they're seven and one.

You say that, and I get where you're coming from, but talk to a Colts fan, a real Colts fan about what life has been like after Andrew Luck. It's just the quarterback position, nothing's really changed. changed. I know they added war in the tight end, but you saw that team last year with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor.

Jonathan Taylor's had good years, but nothing comparable to this. And that's just the difference that good quarterback makes, because you can just run different plays in schemes. And yeah, this year, I think you're spot on the fact that he is, we agree, he's the best player of football right now. But if Mahomes

gets that one or two seed and keeps putting up the numbers he's putting up. Of course. I know. That's what sucks. So that's the tough part because it's as incredible as he is, the Eagles won the Super Bowl, and Saquan, our MVP ran for 50 yards. You can take that position away,

and you can win by 40 points in the Super Bowl. If your quarterback can't complete the ball, 20 yards downfield, that's just that's never going to happen, right? That's why the quarterback is so much more important. So it just sucks for Taylor. Like you said, if he keeps putting these numbers up, it's going to make it a real decision.

Because that's the only thing that Saquan was missing. He had the yards. He just didn't have the touchdown. Right. That's the last time we wanted. Like Chad said, LeDady and Thomason, he had the storyline. He had the touchdowns. Adrian Peterson, when he won it, he was coming off a major knee injury.

And, like, we just didn't. That year, there was no good, like, great quarterback. So it could line up. I'm not trying to tell people what's a dumb bet. I just, I wouldn't make it just because it should be 50 to 1. That's the type of odds. It really is in actuality. All right.

San Francisco at the Giants. Giants are two and a half point dogs. I know it's chalky to like the Niners here, but after playing the Texan's defense, this is going to feel like playing against eighth graders. Because the only Rushdie worst than the Titans is the Giants, literally the only one. And that's what the Niners are going to want to do.

And now all of a sudden the Giants are without Kim Skataboo, and I think it's a tough road to go down right now because that spirit, like their spirit was just taken from them. What is this line, though? And that's, like, this was almost Simon says. I'm not forcing it because the Giants are the right side here, but I think it's going to get the plus three, maybe plus three and a half. Because like Chad said, it's going to be all love for the 49ers here.

There's a lot of underlining numbers where this is a good matchup for them. And, hey, maybe Pretty will be back and I'll move it even more. But my God, does this line stink the holy hell? Them giving us under a field goal here because it's a no-brainer, nineer spot after that bad loss. I just don't not get this line at all. The books are not here to give out free money. So, man, I'm with you.

It's very tempting. My model loves the 49ers here. Like I have this right now at minus four, whether it's Mac Jones or Purdy. It's a point in a half of value. That's a ton of value. A key number. I just, I don't,

there's so many games I'm already being a sucker on, I can't be a sucker on this one. This is Giants or nothing at all for me. Denver at Houston. Houston minus one. and a half this is flipped from Houston plus one and a half you mentioned this Sunday night you liked houston we both bet Houston at plus one and a half the line has moved largely because pastor tain is going to be out and so now you've got a that basically the two probably two of the best defenses

in the NFL especially when it comes to rushing the passer going against each other and i would have felt better about the broncos chances even though i had bet the texans if pass or tain was playing because the broncos are so good at getting extra pressure with five guys because they know pass or tain is on somebody and they can they can not worry about that side of the field i think that this is a big big difference and i'm just glad i got the plus one and a half yeah once again trap game it's the public is going to be all over this denbred team once again just like last week you soon be under value where people are realizing this is one of the best defense is in football. They're legit juggernaut. And unlike Denver, who are going to be missing guys,

Houston's getting guys back and they're getting healthier. And they should have hopefully Nico Collins back, which will be a big bump when they're down, their number one corner in Denver. And Denver feels like a little bit of an overvalued team. I know they're still at top of the division right now. The people are feeling good, right, that huge blowout win or the Cowboys. But my God, I couldn't believe when I saw the splits on this game, all the public love. for Denver. It just makes it so easy in my job. Again, them not being scared about this line flipping just shows, just like that last week with the 49ers,

it's like, that should be alarms to you, people. And those professional money is moving in number three points this early in the week. That's a big deal. And, yeah, just matchups on the field-wise, there are ways for Denver's offense to attack this Houston team and exploit some things that other teams have this year. But it just feels like another spot where, Houston's defense at home, they're going to perform well against, I think,

Boenix, who struggled against really good teams that disguise bullets packages, which is what Houston loves to do with D'emico Rines. He's just a really smart defensive mind. I mean, Carl Sheaney talks about all the time. Him and Sala, two of the smartest guys he's ever been around defensively. So people know how much we love Sala, I say I have the same respect here for D'emke Rine. So Houston was going to make him, Simon says, if they were still plus one and a half. Like Chad said, the number has moved.

Still think there's value there. It's still under the key number of two. I don't think it's a good bet, but I'm like you. I wish this was still us getting a good dog here, but let's be patient. Let's hope some smart group comes in on Denver. Maybe it gives us back to being a dog here, but yeah, like you said, I'm not rushing to take it,

but it feels like a really, really good spot once again for this Houston team. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast?

Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it.

Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas,

and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed.

and finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup,

he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's first, friends stop by like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash will get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He run up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, after you go through a training camp with that Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going

to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This week on Crimless, we're joined by our first ever guest. Sorry, our first ever human guest. I don't think I could be in the same room with Shamrock the pair. I'd be too nervous. That's right. The very funny Will Ferrell joins Rory Scoble and me, Josh Dean, for an episode dedicated to the many crimes committed by people also named Will Ferrell.

They called to his fellow officer for the nippers. What are the nippers? Very good question. No, I was thinking, would that be a good name for like a salad dressing, Simple assault. And it's a play on word, salt? Maybe not. I say we invest and we see. There's only one way to know.

This did not amuse the cops. By the way, normally the cops are amused, but this did not abuse the cops. Will even comes clean about some of his own crimes. I didn't get caught. You know why? If you don't want to be suspected of anything, you whistle as you walk. Listen to Criminless on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. agency, the ability to know that we're the experts in our own body. On the podcast cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women

can show up fully and be heard. I wholeheartedly think, you know, you hit 30, you shouldn't have to share room with anybody. Mm-hmm. From navigating friendships and healing to setting boundaries and prioritizing your mental health. These are real, honest conversations. We don't always get to have out loud. totally unreasonable with different parts of life, right? Like, oh, have all three meals and make sure you're mindful during all of them?

Absolutely not. During one meal, I'm standing. I'm standing and handing my children food. Because healing, empowerment, and resilience aren't just ideas, their practices. And this Mental Health Awareness Month, there's no better time to pour back into yourself. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. New Orleans at Los Angeles, the Rams are 13 and a half point favorites. Just a really big number. We don't know who's playing quarterback yet for the Saints. Is Spencer

Rattler's era over? Is it time for Tyler Shuck? We don't know what's going to be happening there yet. There has been no word out of New Orleans. I don't know that it really matters. I also don't really want to bet the Rams anything outside of a parlay on the favorites at 13 and a half. They've won a couple games by pretty big numbers this year. But something about, like, I don't trust them. I don't trust them as being a blowout team against bad teams. Do you know what I mean? And I think that's just because in the past they haven't been.

And maybe this year is different and they're just going to roll these bad teams. And that's, you know, something that's just fluky with them being this season. But I'm with you. I have honestly no interest in taking this game or betting this game. Like same thing with that Green Bay game that I think you already talked about. Maybe we'll take an adjusted line here on L.A., but I have a hard time trusting either team, let alone this Saints team that we don't know who the quarterback is, and that's a big deal to me trying to bet it.

Good, because I really want to talk about Jacksonville and the Las Vegas Raiders. Raiders right now are plus three at Hard Rock, plus three and a half elsewhere. I'm not going to lie to you. This came very close to be in Chad's choice, betting the Jacksonville Jaguars. Good. Well, that's a trap. I want to make sure, like, you're just like everyone else.

It's the trap of traps, Jags. Oh, yeah. I love the Jags here. Yeah, I'm just glad you stayed away. No, no. I still bet the Jags at minus three. Oh, no. Look, the Jags' biggest weakness, as I've said many, many times,

is Trevor Lawrence. He's completing 58% of his passes. And what is this line? He's not a very good quarterback. What is this line? The Raiders defensive backfield is atrocious. 27th in the league in expected points added. Their propensity for zone allows for much bigger plays in the middle of the field and yards after the catch.

Like, if I have to trust somebody to improve over a buy week and both teams are coming off a biweek, is it going to be Liam Cohn coaching up? Trevor Lawrence and finding a scheme that allows him to be comfortable taking advantage of a terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible, secondary? Or is it Pete Carroll trying to figure out how to do what his specialty is supposed to be, which is improving the defense? I don't see it. You say it's a trap.

I say it's an opportunity. Could be. You're definitely right. Like the minus three probably is the best number we're going to get on this Jaguar scene. That's also why I bet it. I knew it was going in that direction. Yeah, there's only one way it could go though I don't know who is betting the Raiders

I do not get once again This line hanging right now Is so stinky It is so like these lines this week are ridiculous I just I don't get it Like the books are now our best friends I guess Because this is

This is insane They're just the fact they're willing to take For two days now All this money on the Jaguars at this number It's just mind blown to me because no one's betting Vegas. Vegas is one of the worst teams in football. They're undisciplined.

They're poorly coached. Max Crosby was banged up before the biweek. It's just so bad and dysfunctional right now. So yes, you're getting a good number. My model agrees with you. But as someone that's doing this for a living and sees these lines every week, I can't tell people to bet it. I can tell you the Jags minus three is the best number.

But I just, this number stinks such a trap game. such a bad spot. I just cannot give out the Jaguars. Coward. Total coward. It's just sad. Sad. Just a millionaire sports better. I'm trying to protect people here. This, there's the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the games are so stinky how easy they are, and this is one of them. Kansas City at Buffalo. Kansas City is a one and a half point favorite and it's moving since they beat the commanders. Do you have something you'd like to say here? Yeah, this is my Simon says, but give me the chiefs minus one and a half.

I want to play a game. Simon says. This number is moving. Hopefully people can get it at this number. It still is minus one and a half as we see here right now at a hard rock. But a lot of books are already moving up to two and a half. Again, luckily for me, it's not super trappy. I was worried about this game when I first saw it.

There are pros on the bills. There are guys taking positions on the bills. Thank God, because I thought this was going to be. The public, everybody, just like that, Jags game, pros in the public line enough to take a number that I don't understand. I do not understand this chief's number. I thought this would be minus three. My model has it a minus three and a half.

It's still minus one and a half of hard rock. This is crazy, crazy value in my opinion, on a chiefs that are fully healthy in incredible flow state. Their whole offense is just rolling. Yeah. I knew Rice would be a big injection to that offense. you would never know he's coming off a major knee injury. It's been incredible how good he's been since he's been back.

So just Chief's team, to me, still being undervalued. The Bills on the flip side, I can't get over how bad Josh Allen has been this season. That Bill's game, that was Josh MVP Allen. He has not been that quarterback in any game since then it feels like. Every game I go and I watch of him, I don't put total blame on him because I do think they failed him, but the receivers they've given him. They just don't have guys that can get open for the most part. And, you know, it's tough for me to go against Josh here, right?

He's a home, I'm going to be a big home dog, but I don't think the bills are good. And you talk about the injuries to their defense with Ed Oliver now being out again. It's like, okay, this is a team that struggled against the run already has issues in the secondary, stopping good passing offenses, and they don't have any type of pass rushers. So I just can't get there, this bills team. To me, it's not priced. right, it's really priced about Josh Allen being a home dog where he's, you know, excelled in his career, right?

Usually you think of him at home, these type of games he's done so well. But, you know, when I really dove into it and broke it down, it's like, what am I really backing here with this team other than Josh Allen? I couldn't find anything. So I know it's shocking both of us favorites for our favorite bets here. We sit on Tuesday, but I do love the Chiefs on a short. a week on the road as a favorite. It's a weird spot for me to love me. It's a weird spot when you say it out loud like that. I know. I just, but also it's price strong. Ed Oliver's out. Like, that's a big

deal. When you're saying Ed Oliver is out for the bills and that's what you're sort of hanging your hat on as a Bill's fan that he's the best defender and he's out. This, this Chief's team defensively, offensively, they look so much better than they did last year. It's the exact right plays on both sides of the ball at the exact right time. They are not flustered. They really look like when moments of stress occur during the game, you can feel the tension across the field, right? You can feel it from the players. You can feel it from the coaches. You never feel that from the Chiefs. You just don't. It doesn't matter whether it's Spags or Andy Reid. Like you just don't feel anything nervous or anxious coming from them because they are playing in such a zone.

right now. So yeah, we both love the chiefs here. Yeah, and like even last night, a really stupid game where things weren't going their way, right? They had, what, seven points to start the game and also was tied to the half. Game on the second half made the adjustments. They just dominated in every aspect. So like you said, they're easily the best team of football right now. And yeah, if you're thinking of, you know, how wide open the NFC is right now, which I agree with, the AFC, it feels like it's going to be the same old story. There's just the chiefs just feel. like they're far and above the best team right now. Other than injuries, the derail at the season,

they just feel like they're such a complete team right now compared to what, like you said, they were last year. All right. Time to focus on our prime time. Spotlight. We're going to talk about these games, the stand-alones as a little bit of a package. Seattle at Washington.

Washington is three and a half. It started moving yesterday. You liked Seattle Sunday when it was three. The line has moved in that direction. We would expect Jaden Daniels to be playing. Here's the real question for me. This is a trust Sam Darnold game. The Commander's Rushdie is mediocre, but the past D is terrible.

Bottom five in every category, basically. So you know it's going to be about Sam Darnold and his ability to win the game, which he's done. I'm not discounting anything he's done. He's definitely won them, put them in a position to win games this year. Yeah. But they're not going to be able to out physical this team, which is how Seattle's been winning games this year. Yeah.

And like we keep talking trap games. This is the definition of a trap game. Washington embarrassed primetime game. Sure. Getting the hook at home with the quarterback coming back. But that's why I wanted people to grab the three because it's like I just another game. where it's like what there's only one direction for this number to go right so I hope people got the three maybe you can still find it out there like our our tough choice will be are we are we

really back in sioux at my three and a half we know it's super public super stink I don't know that we will like a three and a half I'm still I'm probably still gonna I know I hate to say I'm probably still gonna bet a chat I hate it too I'm hating myself for it because I feel like I'm doing good avoiding like that jags game for instance like but I don't know if I can avoid this one. All you're avoiding with the Jags is a win. I know, I know, but I feel like you forget the experience on betting on Trevor Lawrence,

and it's going to hit you midway through the third quarter when he has four picks somehow against a horrible Raiders defense. Trevor Lawrence, everything's going to be fixed. That's what I mean, though. When I'm betting these trap spots, it really is about the teams and them. And, like, I feel confident in the Colts and Daniel Jones and that offense with their run game.

Same year or the Seahawks. I think they have a good run game with a two-headed monster. Sam Donald's playing at such a high level. And their defense, like we talk about, they travel. They've been better on the road than they have been at home under their new head coach in the regime. So it's stinky, but I'm there, unfortunately. And we'll see. I'm excited to what my model does with this line, if it is Jaden Daniels.

But I have just priced him so low my model right now just because he's not the same player with the bum knee. and you saw it even last night. Their head coach, I know he got them to an FC championship. He feels like an idiot in some ways. Like, you can't coach the same way with Marriota as you did with Daniel Jones, who was 80% on fourth down. So, yeah, between the coaching matchup, all of it,

I just, what am I trying to, I'm trying to get there in Washington. I can't find anything that get me there. They're just, everything about them seems abysmal. And the Seahawks just seem like top four, top five team. Yeah, but that's the challenge. right is that we're always talking about is when do you play the number when do you play the situation and when do you play what you see on the field to me this is sort of that classic spot where you're

getting the team that just got blown out that isn't as good against the team that the public loves and you're getting the hook and if you get the the key to the offense and jaden Daniels back against a good defense but he can be slippery that's where we run into trouble for not having the imagination for the possibility because of the situation in the number. Yeah, maybe I'll get there, Brazier City right now. I'm all aboard Seattle. Arizona at Dallas. Dallas is a two and a half point favorite. It's come down from Cowboys minus three. That one I don't get. I actually, like, I like the Cowboys here. I like it. Really? Situationally. I like the Kyler will be starting. It's going to run opposite size this

week. We are on a lot of opposite sides. Yeah, that's good, though. We were agreeing too much. I just think it's the right spot for the Cowboys. I just, you know, my opinion, I don't think Cowboys should be favorites or anybody unless they're playing some of the worst teams of football. Arizona, to me, is not one of the worst

teams of football. If it's Kyler, shockingly, don't mind him coming back in this spot. This is the perfect type of defense to get right against. They're just abysmal in every way. So yeah, you're probably, you're probably right if you want to get to minus two and a half i don't mind that if you're going to get dallas but if it's three has to be arizona like this is not the type of game dallas

will be able to blow a team out with i think arizona be competitive their offense can move the ball whether it's kiler or you know or set i have confidence this arizona offense to stay staying keep it close with this dallas team but like you said the dallas offense the trust of their kicker if it's under three okay that's fair enough they have the the best kicker in football. That's a key number for a type of kicker he is. But yeah, at plus three, the value to me is all on Arizona. Like the money line plus 130 as well.

That's the value I want to be at. Yeah, both of these primetime games, I'm just playing the number. Three and a half and two and a half. Three and a half and two and a half. That's what I'm doing. I'm getting a home team at less than a field goal with a great offense against a not great defense. And I'm getting the home team.

met more than a field goal with their best player coming back, coming off a really bad game in prime time where I know the public's going to be against them, on a road favorite. Again, my only pushback would be Green Bay lost, the Green Bay beat this Arizona team. They could have lost him. They beat him 27 to 23. It's pretty respectable. With Jacoby Brissette. And I think we talked about until Kyler Murray Lunds. Well, Tyler's never lost. You know that right. He's never lost in Dallas. Kyle Murray learns High school, college, or pro.

Kyleorne to start running the offense through Trey McBride and not doing his little pitter-patter, then I don't think this offense can be as effective as it was. And we saw the past two weeks.

I'm going to get to it. You cut me off, Chad, because you're a cutter offer. Lost to the Colts, 31-27, again, close game. Okay, 2221, Tennessee, 23-20, C-Haw. 15 to 16 against this 49ers team.

So every game's close, you're getting plus three. That's my whole point here. It's like you're, it feels like you're taking a little bit of a bad spot here in Dallas. Where Dallas could win, you will hate yourself if it lands on the two, no doubt about it. I am not a cutter offer. You did. All right. The games we know we agree on, Detroit minus eight and a half.

Yeah. We're talking about the chargers. We haven't gotten there yet, but at least we both agree on the team we'd want to bet if we get there. Another one like that, Indy minus three, we want to get there. Houston minus one and a half, we both like a lot. But full disclosure, we both got Houston plus one and a half. That's for pennies though. Like I'm going to really betting into it as none as a favorite most likely.

The Jags minus three. one of us loves, one of us knows it's right. I'm just trying to stay away from it. And is afraid to love it. And then Kansas City minus one and a half, we definitely love. But I think there's a lot of games, including these primetime games that we're going to have to revisit on Thursday. I want to hear what the shrubs have to say about where we're at.

I feel like a lot of them are going to be with me this week. No, you're very public this week. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday. with the games were zero and we get in on plus our Survivor Bick our head to head

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