The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets: Packers-Bears, Rams-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Patriots-Chargers, Niners-Eagles, Texans-Steelers

Episode Date: January 7, 2026

The betting slate for 2026 NFL Wild Card Weekend is here, and betting expert Chad Millman is joined by professional sports gambler Simon Hunter to discuss every game for this opening round of the NFL Playoffs!Together the duo provide initial betting picks and predictions for the Wild Card games, covering both spreads and totals as their free SHARP OR SQUARE PRO FOOTBALL PICK 'EM CONTEST continues throughout the playoffs at https://sharporsquare.thevolume.com/ Today's betting action starts with two huge Saturday matchups, as Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers play host to Matt Stafford and the favored L.A. Rams. Then in the nightcap, Jordan Love returns for the Green Bay Packers as they square off against Caleb Williams and the rival Chicago Bears in frigid Soldier Field. Moving on to betting picks and predictions on the Sunday slate, we hear our duo's opinions on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills as they hit the road to battle the Jacksonville Jaguars with red-hot quarterback Trevor Lawrence. In the City of Brotherly Love, Jalen Hurts and the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles defend their crown against Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers. And on Sunday night, coach Jim Harbaugh and captain Justin Herbert lead the L.A. Chargers to Foxboro to take on Drake Maye and the New England Patriots. And finally, today's episode wraps up with a breakdown of Monday's game between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers, as C.J. Stroud looks to hand Mike Tomlin yet another Wild Card defeat. Plus, we hear Simon's favorite NFL playoff futures and longshot bets! #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:13:20 - LA RAMS VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS 0:23:30 - GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. CHICAGO BEARS 0:32:55 - BUFFALO BILLS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0:38:35 - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 0:45:30 - LA CHARGERS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 0:55:55 - HOUSTON TEXANS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS 1:04:50 - FAVORITE NFL PLAYOFF FUTURES & LONGSHOT BETS-- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was hiring. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Mark keep coming to him. He's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the I Heart

Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is, getting a racist statue removed. And here's something that should be a whole lot easier than it is, getting a new one put up in its place. I'm Akela Hughes, and Rebel Spirit Season 2 is about both of those things. As I was watching these statues come down, I was thinking about what it meant that I grew up in a majority black city in which there were more homages to enslavers than there were to enslave people.

Listen to Rebel Spirit Season 2 on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Your 20s can be so exciting, but they can also be really overwhelming, confusing, and honestly, just kind of lonely. May is Mental Health Awareness Month, and the psychology of your 20s is breaking down the science behind the biggest roadblocks we face. I was six years into my career, the 80-hour weeks, and just the first one in, the last one out, and I ended up burning out. There was a large chunk of my 20s that I, like, was just so wanting to, like, be out of that phase out of my skin. And I just, like, really regret not living in the present more. You don't need to have everything figured out right now. You just need to understand yourself a little bit better.

Listen to the psychology of your 20s on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock That. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show. that makes the squares sharper, it makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as I am every week.

By my call is my companion, my compadre, my BFF, professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, it is a bittersweet show as it's over for the regular season. I know. Like for us, our contest keeps going

and the playoffs keep going. it's better here. It's the best football of the year. And you know the deal as a team who, a fan of a team who's in the playoffs. And it's anybody's game. When you make it to the, you feel that way. I know it's usually the best teams, but you just want to get to the dance. You want to at least get to the dance. And, yeah, when I woke up yesterday after the Sunday games, I was like, my God, thank God I still got a team left and some football left because it's, it's just the best feeling. The chase, I mean, we got it, we got a Bill's fan here, a guy who's lost four straight Super Bowls. It's the best run of your life, but also can be the most

crushing and tone-setting run of your life. But it's, it's the best feeling. Like, I just can't believe the playoffs you're here and running through all these matchups, all the conversation. The island's going crazy. Bermuda, everything's going crazy right now talking NFL. We've knocked our weekend. It's, it's the best right now. I'm in a little bit of football ecstasy because on Friday night, I will be in Atlanta to watch the Indiana Hoosiers play the Oregon Dockers. Play the Oregon in the college football playoff semifinals. I'm so happy to go, because that was Hardbuck. We were going to go to the Big Ten championship.

So this makes up for it. Yeah, yeah. You know, it's really about scheduling for this show. Like, it just, we, during the football season, we do show Tuesday, we do show Thursday, we do a show Thursday, we do a show Sunday night. It just makes it hard. And I don't live near, like anywhere I go from Connecticut.

I fly to Hartford. It takes a full day to get somewhere because it doesn't fly anywhere direct. it flies direct to Atlanta. So, and my buddy Matt, who I'm going with on, you know, the night that they won their playoff game, he's like, listen, I know you can get nonstop from Bradley to Atlanta. We're fucking going. And he's right. And so we are, we're going.

And then I get back that night, and I'm sitting down to watch the Bears in the playoffs play the Packers. Like, it is going to be 24 hours of full football glory. or pure agony. We don't know which way it's going to go yet, but that's also a part of the fun. Simon, we went four and one in the final weekend of our five favorite picks for the regular season. We won with the Lions.

We won with the Rams, one with the Saints, and in a thriller, Miracle of the Year, game of the year. Wow, the Ra Ra Steelers. Home dogs, three and a half. It's a theme that we're going to touch on today. We lost with the Bengals and we lost with the Bengals who lost to a QB who finished the game with a 12 rating, 12 QB rating and led an offense that scored six points. I was going to let it go.

But then I saw this, you actually texted me, texted me in Mitchell, that some dude in the Circa Survivor contest, the prize pool for Circa this year in their survivor contest was $18 million. Going into the final weekend, there were six people still alive. Only one person lost, lost the chance to win $3 million because that person had the bangles. And that brought it back for me and made me put it in context, felt much, you know, less worse losing what I lost versus what this guy lost. But then I saw a stat from Aaron Schatz who created DVOA. and he put out a graphic that basically said the underlying metrics from that game, the way the Browns won should happen 1% of the time, which makes it the sixth longest odds for a team with those metrics compared to the team they lost to

to win in NFL history. the sixth least likely outcome in NFL history for a team that played as bad as the Cleveland Browns did. That is remarkable. And I feel for the guy who lost $3 million because of it. I love how you were just so in shock, though. I try to say the exact thing you just read out loud here to you on Sunday night. I think you just blew right through. You still complained about the Bengals for another 10 minutes.

You think you got it bad. A guy lost $3 million on that kick. But yeah, Matt Mitchell, throw that right. record back up on the screen. It was a great year. Well, we have five losing weeks, Chad. It was insane. A great year. I know the internet. People's brains are fried. Like, I still have people complaining and just saying crazy stuff. I had this one guy going every week complaining. I clicked on his profile. And it's just him like propping up, bust him with the veneer guys. And it's like, dude, what is going on? How are you going to love those guys and hate us when we're giving out

real good picks and working our asses off? So yeah, five losing weeks, Chad. I'll take it anytime I get it. It was a long season, a grind. Obviously, the most disappointed part of that chart is there's no five and no weeks, which is always, we're always, that's always the goal every week. And we, we didn't get to this week. But yeah, it's chaotic start to the year. And I'm pretty happy how it all worked out, brother. It was a fun, real fun season. And like I said, I'm really happy to get the contest continues into the playoffs here. Keep it rolling. Started four in one, ended four and one. A lot of three and two. 13 winning weeks. Five losing weeks. Shout out to, uh, Chris. Samson on X, who goes by NFL Betts Tracker, because he has been updating how we have done

with all of our sort of named bets, you know, Chad's choice and Simon Says and brass balls and rock and a hard place. He's been updating it all season long on Twitter, not just the five favorite. So we went 5139 with the five faves. Our best winning percentage was rock and a hard place, 61%. Chats' Choice won at a 56% clip. Simon says wanted a 39% clip, which you knew you had a bad run in the middle there. Simon

Simon crushed me in head-to-head, 59% to 35%. What's least surprising about this... What was that, Sharper Square? Sharp versus Square. Well, at least the name is called. That, well, I have my point. The least surprising thing to me is that Rock and Hard Place won at a 61% clip, because that's Sunday morning when we have nearly perfect information.

Yeah, that's the easiest time. Easiest one to met, to bet. But no, at least you were nail on Tuesdays. Well, listen, the second best was you crushing me in Sharp v. Square. This is the biggest win in the history of our show. and to me, I think the fact that we named it Sharp versus Square, it was a self-fulfilling prophecy. I am going to tell myself, I just had to lean into the idea that I had to be as square as possible in order for this to work. So maybe I sandbag myself.

That's what I'm telling me. Tennessee Titans too many times. That was probably your issue. It totally could be. All right, looking at the leaderboard in our Sharper Square Pro Football Pickham contest, six entries, our current We're tied at 20 points. Nikki Abbs, maybe he's doing the Peloton workouts like I am. And the big Y, which also happens to be my local grocery store.

I'm learning for the big guy. Big Y. Big Y. Big Y. Big Y. Big Y. Big Y. Just down the street for me.

They're at the very top. Four more slates until we crown a champion. Good luck to everyone playing. Also, since we're going through season roundups, Simon. We've got to thank Matt Mitchell, who came into the show, shortly after we launched, didn't miss a beat from the old days, kept us rolling the whole freaking season, organized the contest, working with our friends at Hard Rock Bet, which is not an easy thing to launch in the middle of a season. We got to thank our friends at the volume

for helping us launch a spectacular show that got bigger after we left our old platform, started a new show with a new name. So if that's the case, we also, have to thank everybody who came with us, everyone who joined us this season. We're only doing it because we like working with each other, the three of us, and because we love the interaction we get with our audience, the good, the bad, and the ugly. So we're super grateful that everyone stuck with it all through the regular season. We're going to keep rolling into the wild car. In our favorite uncle, Colin, Colin Coward, best season ever, bleez in five. What a coincidence. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. Reflected glory. I don't know. This is our Tuesday Wild Car

weekend show. So we're going to review the entire slate of games. Because it is playoff season, we will include totals in the conversation. Those are also included in the contest. Also, because the schedule of games is wacky, we adjust our weekend programming as well. So we got the Tuesday show. We got the Thursday show. This weekend, we will do a Saturday morning show. because we want to get ahead of all five games. And then we will do a Monday review show and then right before kickoff of the Texan Steelers. So we'll review what happened over the weekend

and then preview Texan Steelers. The next weekend we'll do a Saturday morning before the divisional round and a review show on Sunday night after. Again, we'll remind everybody, but don't forget, that's what we're doing. New schedule. Get all the show, Sharper Square, YouTube.

Subscribe and like this video, Donaldson, Apple, Apple, Spotify, whatever I get your pods. Here we go. Saturday, January 10th, 4.30 p.m. Eastern, Los Angeles Rams at the Carolina Panthers. The total is 46.5. Contest includes totals for all games. Simon, it's like a dream come true.

We get to talk about the Panthers and Bryce Young in the playoffs. It feels like vindication and validation for us. after so many years backing this team. We've been loving them. I'm telling you right now, Chad's Choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Los Angeles Rams a minus 10. Boom. Boom.

Boom. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? My choice. We can't run from where we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know, to me.

Shocker. I know. This is crazy. It's against type. It's against the team that I love. I got some logic. Before I get into it, I do want to hear your thoughts on my bet because we haven't talked about it and it's going against everything we do and everything we've done with this

Panthers team. A little bit. Yeah, it's, it's tough for me right now. I told you I'm probably waiting before I put a lot of money to this one until I know what the status is about the Adams. And, you know, it's a type of game where, you know, I get why you're doing it. We both agree the Rams are a much better team.

And I obviously have a ton of stats that favor of the Rams and we're about to run through here. But, yeah, I'm shocked to hear that it's your favorite bet so far over the weekend. I'm a little bit too. part of it is it's like it's hard to choose on a Tuesday of playoff week. All of the stats that you're talking about, the advanced analytics, point to this Rams team as being probably the best team in the playoffs based on what they do offensively, what they do at defensively,

the strength of their schedule, who they beat, how they won. So that's number one. I think that we're getting a little bit of value here. Because don't forget, when these guys played at the end of November, November 30th, the Rams were 10-point favorites on the road at the Panthers. So what this is saying to me is that everything is power rated the same. And in that window, the Rams have continued to perform really well. The Panthers have been okay.

They didn't beat the bucks. They didn't win the week before. like they got blown out in a really bad game against the 49ers. So I feel like there's a little bit of value on the Rams. And then we have to take into account this past weekend, was it a good Bryce Young game or was it a bad Bryce Young game? Because you generally want to go against his most recent performance. And his last game, 2435, 266, two touchdowns in a game,

they easily could have won. one inner hurricane on the road, included some classic Bryce Young bombs. So isn't he due for a stinker? Some of my thoughts. Yeah, I just, I honestly thought we maybe would end up on the Panthers this week. That's why I am shocked to hear,

so early in the week you love the Rams this much, but it's a crazy team this Panther team, where it's never happened before. Our team has never won a game as a favorite and then made the playoffs that season. The Super Bowl error. This has never happened before this Panthers team. Every game they won this season was as an underdog.

I went, what they go, eight? Eight wins as an underdog, and they never won as a favorite, and they somehow made the playoffs with a losing record and an insanely horrible point differential. Over minus 69 points, point differential. Like, it's just insane this Panthers team to make it. Because the division is, like you're saying, it's a weak, bad division.

Panthers being powered at this number. I have it at eight. So once again, like my motto does favor the Panthers here, but it's, I think it's because Devante's out and the numbers have been skewed a little bit

where he was in, I mean, he still led the league in touchdowns with 14 touchdowns. He didn't play for the final three. So that's going to see the number a little bit. Like the Rams lost two really important games in that stretch, right?

And the public really shifted their view of this team. And it's like, yeah, you can't make an excuse for a staff for losing the number one guy, but he lost him in the worst spot. Like him in that Seattle, game would have been a difference, right? Him being injured for that game or coming up lame was a big deal. So waiting on, waiting on Devante is the big one, but yeah, let's run

through all the crazy numbers. I mean, that's the best part of playoffs. You really can focus in and look at all the different trends and the different stats just for these final six games. The biggest one for this one is how often has this happened, right? A 10-point home dog in the Panthers, it's historical. This is like the biggest home dog we've had in like 25 years. So It's a really, really weird spot for just the Rams and the fact that, you know, they're now going to be one of the biggest favorites we've seen the Wild Card Round. Wild Card Round usually you just blindly bet dogs. If you just taking the dog every year and every game since 2020 or 2020, 2002,

you are 61% just blindly betting the dogs in Wild Card Round. So it's just you don't overthink. You kind of want to lean to the dogs in these spots, but it's kind of interesting that the, the, the Panthers already beat the ramps. And if you go through historical data, if they play the 12th game or later, and the Panthers, you know,

they beat them and was that week 13 or 14. Yep. If they're playing the same team again and they're a dog again, the favorite is 7 and 2 against a spread in that exact spot, covering the spread by seven points per game. So, you know, there are long-term trends that do favor the Rams. And, you know, right away, I was thinking myself,

what is McVeigh stats? Because I give them out all the time, right? McVeigh. Yeah. He dominates late in the season. We talked about that December run. The other thing we've talked about, too, is him as a big road favorite. He's just been incredible, especially against the spread.

You know, a lot of people ask if it's just safe for a go money line, obviously, but we're talking spreads here. That's what we do on the show. Straight up, though, McVeigh is a favorite on the road. 34 and 10, you know, not shocking. Spread, though, 26 and 18 against the spread, which is really impressive. of when he's a fared above four points on the road, he's 19 and 2 straight up in his career,

ATS, 12 and 9. Still, though, that straight up number is insane. Insane. I know someone like me that's making a couple of really big bets. The Rams, I'm going to, I'll be that fish. I'll throw them in a couple big bets money line-wise, just to eat some of the juice because it's crazy how Dominic Bay is against really bad teams.

And we've talked a little bit about Stafford, you know, He struggled this season against bad teams. If you look at his record, I mean, people know he lost to Atlanta. He's got to play with his food issue. That is the one thing that is concerning me. Like they played with their food with Arizona. They played with their food with Tennessee in September, right? And they didn't blow them out until late in the game.

They played with their food with the Niners, when the Niners were down so many guys, ended up losing that game and that had an impact on their seating. there have been moments stretches where Stafford and McVeigh, they sort of disappear for about a quarter. That is a definite concern here. And I'm going to be hitting you guys with this stat in a couple different games, but I talk about every year it's an easy moneymaker for you lazy betters. Quarterbacks with playoff experience,

reverse quarterbacks without playoff experience. 20, 39, and 1 against the spread. So Bryce Young in this. spot. If you bet on him, it's a 34% cover rate. It's just a first time stars against these quarterbacks. It doesn't work out. Even straight up, it's 20 and 40. So even more so, it's, it's just terrible, terrible odds for these quarterbacks making their first starts. So we're going to go through all the games, obviously, but this goes to Bryce Young against Stafford, Gaila Bly Williams, against Jordan Love, and Drake May against Justin Herbert. So just blindly taking

those quarterbacks ATS-wise is just a moneymaker. You're getting a 66% win rate in playoff since the Super Bowl error. So it's a crazy stab. We talk all the time. Experience, it does matter, especially with quarterbacks that have won before in the playoffs. Any thoughts in the total? Fort or six and a half. Yeah, really love, there's, people are going to see a pattern here. I love the unders this week.

We talk all the time. What you're always looking for is playoff outdoors. Like that's usually get some weather, usually get a little bit of coldness for especially these West Coast teams coming east. They have to get, you know, adjusted to that, that it's just different playing in 30 degrees rather than temper control same degrees like we all know. And this weekend, all six wildcard games are outdoors. Another, if you've just been blindly betting outdoor unders since 2004 in the wild card games, 49 and 23. So 68% win rate if you just blindly bet. these unders since 2004 outdoors so you know even better if the total is above 41 in those outdoor games jad the under is 42 and 14 in the wild cars yes so i know there's there's a bunch of games

where i initially was like oh i'm going to love these overs this is one right away where i was like oh my god this is below 48 don't fall for it take the under 46 and a half you could easily see bryshawn laid a total egg and this be a 24-7 type of win for this rams team Well, Millman's hoping so. Chad's choice. I am too, Chad. Honestly, if the item gets cleared, I think you might be ahead of it. This could easily jump another point.

So I don't hate. You're probably getting the best number here. I'm just going to be patient just in case he does get clear. This drops down to nine and a half or nine. All right. Saturday night, 8 p.m. Eastern Amazon Prime. Green Bay Packers visiting the Chicago Bears. The bears are currently a one-point favorite.

The total is 46. Chicago, Chicago. Toddling town Chicago, Chicago, I will show you around. I love it. Look, it's been jumping around. It's gone from Packers plus one and a half to Bears plus one and a half. It feels like there is a complete and total divide in the professional betting community right

now on this game because it seems to move with every, every bet, moves it one way. or the other. The total is 46, like I said. So based on all that, and the fact it's going to be outdoors and cold, even that feels a little bit high to me. So we know we're going to like the under in this game. But I have, I can't get, I can't get to a consensus opinion in my head on this game. The one thing I'll say is that the bears have only been in these games because of miraculous comebacks in the third and fourth quarters. Otherwise, the Packers have dominated these games. Dominated.

And that says something to me. Well, if you're lost, buddy, I just gave you, literally just gave you that stat. You should just blindly fail. Yeah, exactly. And I also, I would say, like I wrote down a note here, money line parlay on the Rams, the Packers, and the Chargers. But yeah, it's, we're watching history.

This is truly history where this is the oldest rivalry in football. and they've only played in the playoff two other times. I was shocked to see that shout out to Bill Simmons, who gave that out. I couldn't believe that. I was like, I have to look this up. There's no way this man is right right now. He's right.

The last time they first time they played in the playoffs, 1941, the second time 2010. Chad probably doesn't remember that 1940s one because the Bears won, but he remembers the 2010 one where the Bears beat him 21 to 14. I think was that Jay Keller who got in that game? Yeah. Um, yeah, crazy. Crazy you guys have only met three times in the playoffs.

I really, that blew my mind. So yeah, the oldest rivalry in football has just been owned by the Packers. And, you know, it's a new air with Ben Johnson. You guys are giving your best. I've talked about it, though. Eventually, it was going to swing the other way, the pendulum. You just kept getting away with it all season. You kept stealing these games, the end of the games.

And it felt like Detroit was going to happen. I don't know about you, but I, if San Francisco, I felt like it was going to happen. and Detroit fell is going to happen. It felt like you finally was going your way, and both times Caleb couldn't bring up the magic, right? That third in 10 or wherever it was against the lines. You couldn't make it happen.

What was the three seconds left or choosing left with the San Francisco game? Yeah. You had a guy. He just missed them. So could it work out for you for the Bears, Chad? I think it can, but I can tell you the pros I've talked to. And the way I'm leaning is really towards the Packers. It's just the exact team you want to be backing here

that they rested everybody. The Bears had a full-on brawl last week. Their defense played, what, 60 snaps and just got abused up and down the field. Now, on a short week against a rested Green Bay team, I mean, the hope will just be Green Bay has just been such dog shit. I mean, what are they lost four or five straight? They've been horrible. They've lost three straight.

Josh Jacobs banged up. Obviously, Tucker Kraft hasn't played for a while. Receivers are in and out. Jordan Love out of the protocol. No Micah Carson. like there's reasons why they've faded at the end of the year, you know? And so even if they are trying to get healthy and rested a lot of guys, they're still not the Packers team that everyone thought was one of the better

rosters throughout most of the year. Yeah. And that's why I'm just expecting all the money and everybody just to come in very heavy on this bear's side. So you can get the plus one and a half on Green Bay. I'll grab it now. But like this is the game I'm not. I haven't bet a lot of money into.

obviously I have invested in the under. The under, I believe it opened at 47 or 46, and it's dropped already down to 45 and a half or 46. So just another, like I said, outdoor under blindly bet it. One of these quarterbacks is going to lay in total leg. And Jordan Love could come out after not playing after a couple of weeks and fall flat on his face and just be terrible. Caleb Williams, we just saw him do nothing for three quarters against the lines last week,

a secondary that is riddled with injuries. So, you know, this Packers team, they lost Micah, they lost the pass rush. Like, this is a winnable game for the Bears. It's just, I feel like it's, it's just the hardest thing ever for that first-time quarterback in the playoffs to get used to the speed and the indifference of compared to regular season. It's just simply different. Every player you've ever talked to always says it is simply different.

That stat I gave out backs it up, right? These first-time quarterbacks, 20 and 40, their last 60 starts straight up. So it's just a brutal start for the Bears here. I obviously, as a two seed, you would hope to get some rollover team in the seventh seed. You guys are in the toughest division. You know the deal, right? Everyone was above 500. Unfortunately, you've got the Packers and it's a historical rivalry.

So I'm interested in what the pros are going to do. I obviously have been wearing a foes come Thursday. We have sit here right now early money for me, Chad. It's going to be in that Green Bay plus one and a half. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast?

Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down?

Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Keith Giamanka seemed like a mild-mannered suburban dad, but secretly, he became someone else,

a master of disguise who went on a crime spree. At the time, did it seem like a crazy idea? It seemed very crazy, but I felt so desperate that I felt it was the quickest, easiest way out. Did you allow yourself to think about how it could go wrong on what that might look like. No, I didn't want to manifest that. I was trying to manifest success. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad

has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man. This is going to change my life and my family dynamic forever, because everything that had existed prior in my reality is now untrue. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please!

But there's so much more to me than that. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice. and thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most

legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Oh, cream of chicken suit. Hey, cream.

Cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to help from a hypocrite, as part of the Mike Coulthura Podcast Network available on the I-Hart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

The story I've told myself about love or relationships can then shape my behavior, and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast deeply well with Debbie Brown and explore the journey of healing, self-discovery, and returning to yourself. Explore higher consciousness, emotional well-being, and the practices that help you find clarity,

peace, and self-mastery in a world that can feel overwhelming. The world is becoming lonelier. We're not becoming more social and connected. We're becoming more individualized, but we actually meet people in connection. If you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole, this podcast is for you to hear more. Listen to deeply well with Debbie Brown from the book. Black Effect Podcast Network on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Sunday games, January 11th, open up the slate with the Buffalo Bills at the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jags are one point underdogs at Hard Rock, honestly one and a half at most other places. Total is 52. Fasten your seatbelts. It's playoff time. ready to get it on in an AFC wildcard game. And the road to the Super Bowl starts here. The bills will have to travel the long way to get to the Super Bowl this year.

They will have to go on the road. So, as I said, fasten your seatbelts. It's time to play football. All right, on three, one, two, three. Matt Mitchell's confidence in this game, and he has mentioned it a few times. And in our pre-show chats, he's honestly making faces that are so,

dismissive of the Jags. Do you know what I mean? Like, have you seen it? Like, he's crunching up his eyes. He's like, come on, come on. What are we talking about here? We're talking about a Jacks team that's overrated and the Buffalo Bills with a MVP quarterback. Like, he's projecting so much confidence right now.

It almost makes me uncomfortable. It's another game. It's just these are the only two games. I'm really waffling. Other games I'm very dug in on. But this one here, I wanted to be on the Jags. And it's like when I went to bed that night, I woke up and I'm thinking, what am I doing? What am I doing against Josh Allen? Thank God, though, I have a team of nerds that could hit me with all these stats to kind of pull me back in.

Why, we do love this Jaguar team. But, yeah, Matt's confidence. I love it because it's so Northeast Bias and I like where it's just repoo-poo-poo-in these southern teams. It's a South. These teams aren't tough. they don't play. Made up the vision. It's like they're playing seven on seven in Jacksonville. But, yeah, we talk all the time about Josh Allen and the playoffs, right?

Where he's at home against bad teams, we hammer them. I mean, last year, where they got the Broncos and they just smack them around that first round. Kill them. Unfortunately for them, you know, they're not up there. They're not at a sweet old orchard park lane. They're down in Florida. And Josh Allen in the playoffs in his career on the road, 0 and 4 straight up and against the spread.

Yikes. I had no idea it's that bad. Now, I guess that's Mahomes' staff. But my God, that's pretty rough. So it's... That's entirely Mahomes. I'll tell you right now, what's funny about this is, you know, we put notes in a script and whatever.

Matt Mitchell, the amount of times he put notes in the script on actual games that we're talking about over the course of this season, I can't even, I don't know that it's ever happened. And yet, in the script, I have so many notes about the bill's dominance in the playoffs. I cannot tell you. Seven consecutive seasons in the playoffs, most in the NFL. Since 2020 versus Kansas City, O and four, so there's your four, scoring 28 points per game, giving up 35 points per game versus all other teams. seven and one, scoring 28, giving up 19. The defense gives up half the points versus teams that are not Reed and Mahomes.

So clearly there's someone in the scrap who's leaning into the bills. But she should. But yeah, like the other Josh An stuff, yeah, you could say it's a lot of Mahomes, but he also doesn't really cover in the playoffs, right? His career, he's 5'8 against the spread in the playoffs in his career. So it's, you know, that's just not A. Mahomes. that he doesn't cover against other teams as well but um you know the bills they just have not been good on the road they've lost eight straight games in the playoffs on the road once again i get it it's

been the defense that let them down this defense is terrible they don't have a number one receiver this jaggs team has been putting up in a scene amount of points so this just feels like the exact game that you know if josh allen was a two point dog or a three point dog yes all over it it's be a back and fourth game whoever's the ball last is going to cover he's not he's a favorite on the road here and he might be banged up like we don't have all the info so like another game on walf and on but i lean towards the dog lean towards the jags and um just you know they're just more complete team they do have a defense that can't get stops that to me is going to be the ultimate match up here can they stop cook like the leading russia in the NFL with one of the best o lines and the bills

that's their that's their biggest weapon they can run the ball control the clock never let lawrence can do a rhythm, that's definitely how the bills win this, right? Because if their defense, we've seen it, right, they get one or two plays that flips the whole game because that's all Josh Allen needs. He needs one or two plays from his defense and that just gives him such a boost where, you know, like you just read all those stats every time in the playoffs, he needs to put up 35 points and it's no different here. Like this is going to me, it's the one game I've taken the over. So people aren't going to be shocked. I'm going all under on the playoffs. But there's a reason this game's 50.

one like the total's 51 a half and i'm going to tick that over i just think it's going to be a total shoot out here so yeah i'm really excited for and if you are like me and you're a little scared to bet against josh allen you're wavering a little bit i have just invested in the jacks first half this is a bill's thing we've been talking a year about josh allen gets down by 14 points we bet josh down at that point it's been no different this season they're five and 12 against the spread yeah they've just been a terrible so you if you want to do the coward way and avoid the full game. I don't mind going Jack's first half either.

Now Matt Mitchell is just talking trash in the scrap. He's saying I'm sure the Jacksonville Jaguars will treat Buffalo like their December schedule of the corpse of the Indianapolis Colts and the Jets. So we know where Matt Mitchell is. He's running to the window right now. This is it, brother. This is it. 4.30 p.m. game Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers at the Philadelphia Eagles. On Sunday night, you were talking about the Eagles at minus three. Definitely the biggest move of the week so far of any game. It's moved up to four and a half. It's at four at Hard Rock. Total's 45. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. A true Philadelphia fan learns to boo before he learns to speak.

Each Sunday, they turn out. Many sitting in seats they inherited from their parents. You know, our fans come from great stock, and they'll fight you. They'll tell you if you're not doing a good job. But they won't let anybody else bill us. when they're there, they're going to help us win the game. Niners' defense was already in bad shape. Now, Tatum Bethune is out with a groin tear.

He's going to be out for the playoffs. But to me, this is really all about Trent Williams. The Niners are just a different team when Trent Williams plays. We've done the stats for so many years about when Trent Williams plays, this team covers, this team wins. When he does not play, because they are so relying on his dominant run-blocking ability, they are just a different team. We saw it against Seattle the other night.

And when he went out, by the way, when it was official, the line jumped from one and a half to three. So, you know, if he's playing, I think it's a bit of a different number. I don't want to, the Eagles rush defense hasn't been great this year, but I kind of feel like that's a, and you can answer this better as an Eagles birdwatcher,

But I don't buy into those stats because I also think the Eagles past defense is so dominant in the secondary that teams just run the ball more. Teams ran the ball more against the Eagles than any other team this year in the NFL. So a lot of those are gross numbers. You're going to have bigger gross numbers when, and I mean gross versus net, not gross gross, when the team is always running the ball. So I'm waffling here. I know you love the Eagles. take it away. Yeah, I love them.

I'm upset. I was trying to hide it open. I mean, I gave out a little bit that was going to be on them, but I can't believe this number of bloomed up like it did. I felt the public would be all over the Niners and a lot of pros, but it's been a little bit of buyback. I saw a couple books, touch five, came back down to four and a half,

and now a couple books are back to four. So, yeah, I love this match with the Eagles team. Like the Seattle Seahawks and the Eagles are really not that much different. When you really break it down, especially when you grade it out, the Eagles are better. Like if they just had an OC, they would be a better team. They're the most complete team. And you could say, well, their run defense struggled. Gialin Carter was basically playing with two torn pecks for about six weeks there.

And they couldn't stop the run. Since he's been back, he's looked like his old self. And, you know, he says he's going to get the surgery in the all season, whatever they did to fix his shoulders. You can notice what difference, especially with the run defense with him and Jordan Davis, who, you know, Jordan Davis is probably going to be an all pro. himself this season. He had a really dominant season. The only reason he might not get is because obviously CLX have two dominant all pros themselves in the D-line. But for this game here,

I immediately thought, okay, people are going to overreact for this Eagles team because they just not have trusted them all season where I've talked about it. They always have done this every year in a sense that Jalen Hertz does not go 100%. I know it sounds bizarre, but he just never lays his body in the line during the regular season. And he does, the playoffs. I mean, no one's ever going to say he's a top five running quarterback in NFL history, but they simply forget that in the playoffs, he is that guy. And he's, his first time in the Super Bowl, he set the record for rushing quarterbacks with 70 yards. And he broke it the next time in the Super Bowl with 72 rushing yards. It's just, he's a different player in the

playoffs. He just uses his body. He always will take it down and run it and play for those extra yards. And this is a defense that like you've talked about, or we've talked about, they have the worst pass rush in all football. They have a least amount of pressures in sacks this entire season, NFL. And, you know, as much as good grace as you want to give the Seattle and the Sam Donald, they really just ran the ball down their throats here. And you think Seaquin would be able to do that as well. So, you know, look at the numbers, Jalen Hertz at home in the playoffs, five and O straight up in his career, four and one against the spread, winning those games, like 21 points per game, you know, in his career, so including the regular season, Hertz,

31 and 5 straight up at home. When he's a home favorite in December or later, 13 and 1 straight up in his career at home. So he just dominates to win these games on the flip side of Brock Purdy, who's been a great quarterback. We've talked a little about it. He's a weird guy where when he's a dog, the books, I went against that last week with him against Seattle.

The books are telling a little bit that Bertie struggles as a dog, especially against good defense. In his career, every time he's a dog against a top-fighted defense, which if you look at all the metrics this season, the Eagles did finish top five in these amounts of points given up, like yards, all of it. Eagles were top five graded defense. Purdy's career, 014, straight up against the spread as a dog

in this exact game against top five defenses, failing to cover the spread by almost 12 points per game. So Purdy just does not play well against dominant defense like that. And you talked a little bit about with Trent last week. I think the biggest thing I noticed was McCaffrey just looked slow. He looked banged up and he looked like a guy that's had, what, 450 touches this season. I mean, he was a couple, you know, maybe it was 50 yards away from a thousand, thousand yard season and he almost a hundred catches. So, you know, you saw a catch

up to him. He just carried the load and it's really wear and tear. So they're playing a arrested team against this Eagles team and this Niners had an all-out brawl the week before against Seattle. So I totally get why the pros have come in so heavy on this Eagles team. And I'm going to grab it now. I think it keeps going up. I think if Lane Johnson gets cleared, I can easily see this creeping up back again to five and maybe close at six. And this is why I love this week so much. This is the biggest home favorite this week. Isn't that not crazy?

Eagles, minus four. It's just, this season was so good. And this playoffs, it just lined up that way with these home teams. Eagles, the biggest favorite is minus four. It's crazy. The best, the number was three. You don't mind it at four. What is your ceiling for betting this?

With Lane Johnson, I have it said six and a half. Wow. But again, that's not that shocking just because this 49ers team. You just said they're decimated with injuries. So, yeah, they whooped all these really bad defense. You saw as soon as they run to a legit defense, that was shocking. I still can't believe Prater only put up three points. That was truly shocking.

But, yeah, the Eagles defense obviously not as good as Seattle. But like you said, one of the best past defense in football this season has been the Eagles. So it's going to be a true test for Prudier on the road. again the total is 45 hammer that under hammer that under last game on Sunday the Los Angeles Chargers plus three and a half visiting the New England Patriots I will refer to your comment a few weeks ago when we were talking about the Patriots I can't wait to fade the Patriots in the playoffs we know the trends you've mentioned a bit the top about first year quarterbacks and the playoffs against veteran quarterbacks.

We bet the Chargers on Sunday night at three and a half. It's one of the few numbers that kind of hasn't moved. No juice movement, no number movement. Total in this game is 46. We're on the Chargers, even though their offensive line is decimated, and we know the Patriots are getting totally healthy. I think we're just back into veteran quarterback here and fading the team that has been getting a lot of flat for playing a really easy schedule all year.

Yeah, and you're not lying. Like, I, every time I go through these chargers, offensive line grades, pass blocking, run blocking, just their getoffs. It's crazy how bad they are. They are, if there was five more teams than the NFL, they might be the 36th with offensive lines. So, it's, it's crazy how bad they are,

but it's not their fault, right? they lost two tackles they took at crazy high draft picks. And that was going to be the thing that made that a big difference for them to season. So Herbert, you know, guy I love hating on because of his playoff failures, can you give him a pass this year because he is going into such a hostile environment and playing against a team that had played really well this year in this Patriots team? Sure, but this is a game that he should win, right? Herbert should win this game.

And you really break it all down. This is a Chargers defense that they're the reason they've been winning this year. Mentor I've talked about. He's been great. We've talked all the time. Herbert, this is a blind bet. I think we talked something that you blindly bet this year. Herbert as a dog, let alone a dog above three and three, 13, six, and one in his career as a starter. And this season, shockingly, as a dog, he's had four straight up wins, which in the past, he's not won a lot as a dog straight up this year, though. He's four now. So really impressive what Herbert's done as a dog. And, you know, we talked for the little streak he had ready.

He stole that game from the Eagles. He was playing terrible. That defense played well enough. And Herbert made enough big time throws to steal that game. And same thing the next week. He stole that game. And it's just been that type of year for Herbert in this offense. So, you know, I was coming to this, I was thinking, okay, this number will get bumped up.

Everyone's going to hammer this Patriots team. I think even Patriots fans are like a little scared here because they are going berserk about this MVP nonsense. And I'm loving on the outside. it's the best because you see from both points of views and you see how both sides are just trying to tear into each other but you know it is true everything we've said about drake may and how he's been against winning teams and you know in his career or not his career this season at home against teams that are above 500 he is just one and three straight up in his games and i'm just just saying this year he's 0-1-1 this year so like we talked about he hasn't really played teams of

winning records. He played the bills at home and he lost that game, obviously. So, you know, true test for them and Vrable and, you know, in his, in his career, hardball. I know this is obviously before Vrable was there. He's done really well coming up to New England when Bill Belichick was the coach. I believe he's two and O's career, hardball. Easy for you to say. Yeah, he's got, he's got the history on his side with that and the travel, but I love that the charges rest of their starters. I just think of it. When I think about this game, it's like that's a team that really needed that rest, especially that offense line. together. So if it was two and a half, maybe I could be talking to the Patriots, but three,

first, if you only get three of your book, that's the best number can get it. I'd still take the chargers, but there's three and a halfs everywhere. So I really like these chargers in this number. And, you know, another game where the under just feels like the right number where I cannot believe this. It felt like it was going to be a 42, 41 total. I got to tell you. They hung up 47, Chad. It's already down to 46.5. So I'd keep bed in that one. This feels like a defensive slug match. And I gave up those numbers, charges defense,

number one against deep ball pass. And so I love this. Drake May, one of the best deep ball throwers this season easily. Best test he's had all year is going to be the charge of defense, trying to throw deep, especially against James and that safety. The total feels so high for a game where a game with two coaches who you know

they're going to want to be conservative. Shockingly, I've seen three different books. All their numbers show the early money is on the overs. So it could go back up, but it did open. It came down a little bit. I want people to grab these unders now just in case the pros do come in. We don't know.

We don't know yet what the weather is going to be, but there could be an or eastern coming for this Sunday's game. So it should be interesting. Let's do a quick word from our friends at Hard Rock. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock, Bette, Florida's sportsbook and the official sportsbook partner of your favorite Florida teams like the Jags, Box, Heat, and Magic. The NFL playoffs kickoff.

in just a few days, and it's the perfect time to build the same game parlay on Hard Rock Bet and cash in on all the action, or if you're more into Hardwood than the Grid Iron, you can put up shots on the NBA in college every night on Hard Rock Bet. You're home for Hoops Action all season long, and if you miss the start of the game, don't worry. Hard Rock Bet has live in-game betting, so you're never too late to bet any football or Hoops game all season. haven't tried your first bet on hard rock bet. There's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets if you win.

Just place a $5 bet. And if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but an extra $150 in bonus bets. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook in the beautiful state of Florida. Plus, Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado, and Michigan. Coming soon to Moore states, too. plus hard rock bet offers new promos every single day. So whenever you're listening, just open the app and check out what you've got any day of the week.

Download the hard rock bet app and make your first deposit. Payable and bonus bets, not a cash offer, offered by the Seminole tribe of Florida in Florida, offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states, must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply,

concerned about gambling. In Florida, call 1-833. Play-wise in Indiana, if you or some of you know, has a gambling problem and wants help. Call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem? Call 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia.

Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band.

Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down. Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Keith Gianmanca seemed like a mild-mannered suburban dad. But secretly, he became someone else, a master of disguise who went on a crime spree. At the time, did it seem like a crazy idea? It seemed very crazy.

But I felt so desperate that I felt it was the quickest, easiest way out. Did you allow yourself to think about how it could go wrong and what that might look like? No, I didn't want to manifest that. I was trying to manifest success. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man.

This is going to change my life and my family dynamic forever, because everything that had existed prior in my reality is now untrue. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help!

Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than that. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian, and recently I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast,

hope from a hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Sike! I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends

as we riff rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Cream a chicken suit. Hey, cream a chicken suit.

This is Help from a Hypocrat, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrite as part of the MyCultura Podcast Network available on the IFart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. If you're watching the latest season of the Real Housewives of Atlanta, you already know there's a lot to break down. Gorsha accusing Kelly of sleeping with a merry man. They holding Kay Michelle back from fighting Drew. Pinky has financial issues.

I like the bougie style of Housewives show. I think it looks like it's going to be interesting. On the podcast, Reality with the King, I, Carlos King, recap the biggest moments from your favorite reality shows, including the Real House Wise franchise. drama, the alliances, M&T, everybody's talking about. As an executive producer in reality television, I'm not just watching it. I understand the game.

As somebody who creates shows, I'll even say this. At the end of the day, when people are at home, they want entertainment. To hear this and more, listen to Reality with the King on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. All right, brother, Monday night football. We got the Houston Texans visiting the glorious, miraculous, so much fun. All the emotions, Pittsburgh Steelers, their three and a half point underdogs at home. The total is 39 and a half.

Put yourself in this difficult situation. You're a professional football player. Your team is on the road. And your team bus has just arrived outside Pittsburgh's Three River Stadium. Before I get into it, Lay it on me. Yeah, going back to the will, Chad. Simon says, give me this Steelers team plus three and a half.

Home dog. I want to play a game. Simon says. Simon says, presented by Hard Rock Bed, Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a half. Man, an opportunity to get a quality dude at a discount. Like, what are we talking about? I love it. I'm in.

I bet it before we even spoke about it. I don't even mind the total. here. Like the under for me is so interesting. People are going to be fooled by what the Texans did last week and their offense and they're going to see 38 points. They're not going to realize that one of those touchdowns came at the end of the game when the Colts were going pitchy, pitchy woo-woo, and one of the Texans huge defensive linemen got the ball and ran it back for a touchdown from 10 yards out. They had six field goals in that game. So the Texans' offense only scored 14 points.

We know the Steelers went crazy in that game, but they went crazy because Kyle Hamilton left the game, and the Texans defense is just so freaking good. So this is prime to be one of those 17, 14 games. The Steelers are getting D.K. Metcalfe back. But give me your thoughts here. Give me your logic. Is it a Ra-R-R-Rat-Tomlin spot? What's the theory?

Let the greatest of all time look at your work. Oh, yeah. I'm about to spend like 10. minutes here on this team. I love this line so much. Biggest bet by far this week has been Pittsburgh on the three and a half and can't get enough of it. And the books are loving it because everyone's just hammering Houston. Every book I go to, they go, yeah, yeah, yeah, we'll give you the three and a half one series. It's the best. It's a good time here on Bermuda. I'm not going to lie. It's a great time. I knew all these stats were going to be insane with Aaron Rogers and the fact that he is,

I know it's a long time ago, but he at the end of the day is a Super Bowl winning quarterback who is now in the playoffs. And that, to me, will always be an advantage. Now, he's never repeated, right? I mean, those Green Bay teams, I think every time me and you were on the other side, luckily. We just always faded him in the conference championship game,

and they just always blew it, but this is not that. This is a wild card weekend with Rogers as a home dog, and, you know, the numbers are pretty insane. Since 2003, Super Bowl winning quarterbacks in the playoffs, that they're an underdog. 64, 25, and 2.

So 72% against the spread after they win a Super Bowl since 2018 these quarterbacks. So quarterbacks have won Super Bowls in their career. After 2018 in the playoffs as an underdog, 16 and 5 against the spread. I'd agree. They've been there.

They've been in those moments. It's hard. Wait, wait, wait. Was that first stat for quarterback since 2003 only as an underdog, or was that against the spread as Super Bowl winning quarterback? Only another.

Okay. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I feel like Pittsburgh's defense has gotten better all season. Much better. Their defense had just total horrible blown coverages and don't even get me started on Jalen Ramsey, but they always find a way to get the turnover, and they've been better against their run.

And, you know, I always talk about Tomlin. This is a grow-up moment right here for you young stars. Let's live. The Monday night stats with him are crazy. I think a couple weeks ago I was pounding the table. You have to take Steelers on a Monday night game. Just blindly take. their money line against that horrible Miami Dolphins team.

And what did they? They beat them by like 20 points. It's just as soon as I saw they gave them the money night game, I was so happy for Pittsburgh because it's all lining up. Like I'm going to keep going through this game, but I do have some NFL futures I'm going to throw out here at the end. But Tomlin in Pittsburgh at home on a Monday night in his career, or just say even on the road included.

He's 23 and 5 in his career, Tomlin, on the road or at home, straight up in his career on Monday night. At home, he's 12 and 1 straight up. The only loss was during COVID. So there's no fans in the stands. That was the only loss under Tomlin at home. Going back even further, so in 1992, they are 23 and 1 straight up at home.

That only loss, once again, was during COVID. The Pittsburgh Steelers do not lose at home on Monday night. There are teams in pro football. And then there are the Pittsburgh. It's bug steel. The voodoo. Keep talking about it. It doesn't make sense.

You just blindly bet it. It's a winner's. It's what they do. They win and cover these games. And we've seen Strout in his career. Stroud has been great at home. We bet him at home. I think he's 2-0 straight up and against the spread of his career.

But he's never won on the road in his career in the playoffs or covered for that matter. In his career, they have had two games on the road. He has scored 24 points total in those matchups. So combined. In both games, he scored less than 14 points in those games. So we've just seen them offensively struggle even more so this year, right? This has been a weakness to them all year. So I see this being a gross type of game with DK back.

That's a huge advantage where you just saw Houston. They give up big plays downfield. And you've seen Rogers get more comfortable pushing the ball downfield. So I love this matchup so much for this team. And should I get into the futures chat? Or you've got more to say on this game. Dude, you're on a roll. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy.

Yeah, it's, oh, I did forget one stat. The Texans were on a nine-game win streak. You would think that would be good. Historically, that's actually terrible for the playoffs. So teams on a nine-game straight-up win-streek entering the playoffs, six and 19 against the spread since 2022 in the wild card round. Filling a cover by four points per game. When this teams are favorites in this matchup,

five and 14 against the spread. So I know that's bizarre, but it just shows how the public overrates them, right? They kind of bet the number up too much. And historically, it's always a point or two up way higher than it should be. I actually had this game at two. I think this is a point a half off and you're getting a really good value here. But let's get to the future. One question. Do you think it'll get to four? Because there are numbers out there. The juice is all over the board on this. Everyone is at three and a half.

But some people are at like three and a half plus three and a half minus 120. And then there's another place that is at minus three and a half and looks like it's minus. minus 120. So it looks like it's moving in any direction here. I will say this. A group I really respect put a sizable bet. They work with one of the biggest books in the country, a very public book. And they're kind of the one group they let, take their other side to even their books out. They took a substantial bet on the Steelers and they moved them to three. So we will see if a big book like that is the first to go to three, usually other books that are a little smaller follows suit even off air.

Like they just will follow those big books that way. So it could. Like I talked about that, Lamar game. I said this might get up to four and a half by kickoff. The public does not like Pittsburgh. Every time they win, it's always luck where we always say it's not luck,

it's voodoo. And I think more people are starting to see that Tomlin voodoo is a real thing. So it's to my greater point of the Steelers team, he gave you that stat about Rogers. He will be a dog every round in this playoffs. But let's really think about this, people. What is his path? When you break this down, what is his path?

And right now you can get him at 55 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, which I don't know if it's going to happen. I don't think it's going to happen, obviously. I mean, Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game and six times. They're 0 and 6 against the spread and straight up. Their last six playoff games, it's been bad. But this is the exact break he needs.

He finally has that veteran quarterback who has been there since he's had Rathustra. And an offense that has been played better down the stretch, and their path. I just can't get over. You're telling me what stands in their way is the two seat of Drake May or a Brock, you know, Bo Nix at the one seat,

a team and none of us really treable, even in Denver, as good as their defense has been. And, you know, as great as Bo Nix played this season, I could still lie to myself and see a path where Ann Rogers and this team can get through that. Like, there's just, there is no Mojones.

And as much as I'm scared of Josh Allen and the bills, it wouldn't be at home. you would have to become to Pittsburgh. I already gave you those stats. He just is a different quarterback on the road. So I just see this for Rogers, this Pittsburgh team. I know it sounds crazy, but you just have to throw a little bit on.

If you don't want to take the money line here, I think that's the bet. Don't take the money line on Pittsburgh. Take the 55 to 1 because we can just hedge it if we want the next round. But for my long shot, favorite team, this is by far. Out of all the teams, I think this has the best value of 55 to 1. They were 60 to 1. I'm in. I'm in.

I'm in. I'm in. I'm in. I'm in. I'm in. a little bit. I'm in. Simon, I'm in. Matt Mitchell was in. I'm telling you right now, we're all in together. We're doing a grouper. And then for the chalk side, I always give out one chalk side. Last year, I've nailed it 10 to 1 on the Eagles. Same thing this year. I already

broke it down for you. I still think they're the best to the NFC. Their Achilles seal is going to be the OEC. I think Petula is truly an idiot in the position that you need to be the smartest person in the NFL, the OC needs to be the smartest person. The defense is, are so complex these days. You really need a genius. And that's fearful to me, but everything I've read, Sierra's helping out the QB coach.

Everyone has had their imprint on this offense. And you've seen, they're listening to the nerds. Like they're taking more snaps on their center, which is better for them offensively. They run better out of it. And now with Lane Johnson coming back, I just think this team's being undervalied by the public.

Like, they're the defending Super Bowl champs. No one's talking about that way. Like when you hear in the NFC, they keep saying how it's wide open, even though, you know, team could have been the two seats. So it's it slept on right now.

I think you can get them 11 to 1 or 10 to 1 at a couple different books. I just, I think it's a homer in me. It's really not. I'm just going off the numbers. I have them as a slight favorite over the Seahawks. Right now the books have the Seahawks of the one and then right behind them the Rams.

Like to me, that's insane when you really think about it. So yeah, I'm going to take the Eagles at longer odds than those two teams. All right. So futures, we like the Steelers 55 to 1. We like the Eagles at about 10 to 1.

right now because they are behind the Seahawks and the Rams. So much talk about the Rams. I will say that the only preseason Super Bowl future I have that really means it. I think I have the Niners at like 20 to 1 or something like that. But the rest of it for me is matchups. And unfortunately, I think the only matchup I have left is I got. Niners, Packers, Eagles, Niners, Packers, Eagles against the bills.

Any one of those, and I make a killing. But, you know, I had the Bengals, I had the Chiefs, the Ravens, those are all dead. Dead. Yeah, I gave out that's still alive, Rams versus Bills, at crazy odds for, for the, Rams and the bills to be in the Super Bowl. But I'm with you. The Chiefs kind of burned a lot of my tickets. And just for straight up bets, I'm a big Rams guy. I got Rams basically 28 to 1,

27 to 1. They signed Devante, got him again at 23 to 1. And, you know, I only regret was I got scared off in the summer for that final month because the staff are now practicing. Stafford, right. It cost myself a lot of money because they just, they end up being probably the best team this season. I know the records don't reflect that, but, you know, football, the best team not always ends up with the best record. That's just how it is. So yeah, I'm with you, Chad. I need some things to happen to get there. I'm not feeling too confident in those long shot out. But that's that's why we play the future market. It's just fun. I would say, no joke, I am going to build a bit of a money line parlay on veteran quarterbacks

versus quarterbacks who have never been in. So I will be playing. You can get that on Thursday. We'll do our moneyline parlay. Oh, that's a good idea. That's a really good idea. All right. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with more details. The Moneyline parles are brass balls. We'll do more Sharp versus Square. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharp or Square. Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, whatever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

Fasten your seatbelts. It's playoff time. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called,

Hey Jonas. Nice. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to our... We get to ask other people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it.

But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick. app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano.

It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was part of you. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis' keep coming to him.

He's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Your 20s can be so exciting, but they can also be really overwhelming, confusing, and honestly, just kind of lonely. May is Mental Health Awareness Month, and the psychology of your 20s is breaking down the science behind the biggest roadblocks we face. I was six years into my career, the 80-hour weeks, and just the first one in, the last one out, and I ended up burning out.

There was a large chunk of my 20s that I like was just so wanting to like be out of that phase out of my skin. And I just like really regret not living in the present more. You don't need to have everything figured out right now. You just need to understand yourself a little bit better. Listen to the psychology of your 20s on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the life.

look of an innocent man. Is everyone lying to me about who they are? I felt such desperation. I felt it was what I had to do. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.