The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - Sharp Conference Championship NFL Playoffs Bets: Patriots-Broncos & Rams-Seahawks

Episode Date: January 23, 2026

Only three games remain in the 2026 NFL Playoffs, with Super Bowl LX looming in San Francisco. To discuss this Sunday's Conference Championships, betting expert Chad Millman is joined by professional sports gambler Simon Hunter to discuss each matchup in an episode sponsored by ZBiotics. Go to https://zbiotics.com/SHARPORSQUARE and use code SHARPORSQUARE at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics. Together hosts provide initial betting picks and predictions for the games, including spreads, totals, and select player props as their free SHARP OR SQUARE PRO FOOTBALL PICK 'EM CONTEST continues at https://sharporsquare.thevolume.com/ On Sunday, gambling action starts with the AFC Championship between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos. Quarterback Bo Nix is now out with a broken ankle, so Denver turns to backup and former Auburn Tiger Jarrett Stidham as a sizable home underdogs. He'll face MVP finalist Drake Maye, who looks to keep the Patriots' incredible Super Bowl dreams alive for Coach of the Year finalist Mike Vrabel. On Sunday night, the NFC Championship game is a showdown between NFC West foes. The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks face each other for a third time this season, as quarterback Matthew Stafford comes off an overtime win to play Sam Darnold. Will Darnold see more ghosts in the defensive backfield? Or is he ready to exorcise his demons and take the Seahawks to a special west coast Super Bowl? All their final and official betting picks, all in one fast-paced episode! #Volume 0:00:00 - START 0:08:30 - SHARP CALLS 0:12:10 - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. DENVER BRONCOS 0:29:00 - L.A. RAMS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 0:42:00 - SIMON BIGGEST BETS OF THE WEEK -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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To hear this and more, listen to Reality with the King on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Conky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines

ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the square sharper, makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milne.

I am joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion, and my BFF, my compadre professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? Dude, I'm a champion. So for the past, you know, 72 hours, I've pretty much just been watching every video,

reading every tweet, looking at every Instagram post. Last night at dinner, my wife and I went out, and we were talking about the game and the Indiana game. and she goes, I feel like you think you were on the field and you won the game. I'm like, I committed 36 years of my life to this team.

I'm going to enjoy it. I'm going to absorb it. I'm going to live it. I deserve it. My son asked me like, what did I talk about all day? My son likes to ask like, what did you guys talk about? What do you say? What he say?

He likes to get into the weeds on the details. and he said, what were you talking about with Matt and Andy on Monday? I'm like, we talked about Indiana. At the game, we talked about Indiana. At halftime, we talked about India. All we did was talk about, are we going to win this game? We're winning this game. Where we win this game, are we going to be champions?

That's it. I don't know. I've been enjoying the old Fernando Mendoza clips, right? Like they're posting clips with him at Cal, him in high school. Oh, yeah. Well, that clip at Cal where he got knocked out. by a Miami player and it's the same player he ran over

on the way to the end zone. Yeah, and it's just been great. Again, a lot of bad things by the internet but there are some great things and this has been one of them where it's like, you know, these people are pulling up videos that why would you ever see his high school recruiting video, right? Or him talking about being a diehard Miami-Kaines fan

and, yeah, just too, watching him just grow into a man, right? Like just, I think he talked this year, he put on 20 extra pounds strength conditioning coach. And I mean, you saw that show up in that run. So, yeah, it's been fun. But just like you, I mean, it's nonstop football. The coaching stuff right now is a professional bettors.

It's probably been the craziest stuff where not that it's like, okay, I'm betting futures based off these coaches. But we talked last year. We were way more confident betting the Patriots and the Bears futures because we like their head coaching hires. And it's been really fun hearing guys different. opinions and especially even like locally um just people talking about how the eagles can't get to OC right now the offensive coordinator and McDaniels picked the chargers over Philadelphia.

Uh, it's been really, you picked the chargers over a head coaching chap. Again, when you break it down though and it's like, do you want, you want to go to Cleveland where they don't know who the quarterback is or do you want to go to L.A. live in Manhattan Beach coach for three, four hours and head back to your pretty posh life at Manhattan Beach. I get why he made that choice. but yeah it's i mean every year there's a lot of coaching changes this year just feels so unique in the sense that you know the the big names right like the fact that shaw mcdermott was fired tomlin was fired whole ball was fired um yeah for for just as a better i thought it would just be all

conference championship conversation this week and it's been a lot of that but a lot of coach talk it just it's been really interesting that just how everyone just so enamored with all these coaching hires so yeah i honestly can't get enough it and again we're not even done yet all these teams teams are still have so many openings. It's pretty wild time. Yeah, it's interesting to me that a coach like Brian Flores, who was interviewing with the Steelers, decided to stay with Minnesota.

Mike McDaniel, who was in. He didn't decide that. He just signed, he did a deal that if he doesn't become a head coach anywhere, which again, it's pretty wild. He'll be all go back to the Vikings as their D.C., even though apparently some other teams were off on them five million more. So he must really love that Vikings organization. They basically signed a deal that if I do not get hired by the Steelers or wherever else

as a head coach, I'm coming back to you no matter what, which, yeah, I think you're alluding to. That's a huge deal. Like, he is. That's a huge deal. Mike McDaniel deciding, yeah, I don't want to go coaching Cleveland. Like, Ben Johnson did this. I don't want to go to Philly either.

There's so much drama on Philly. Ben Johnson did this too where he was pretty close to taking a head coaching job and then decided it's not the right spot, right? And he waited for the right money. Didn't they give him an insane amount of money? Well, I don't know. But like at the end of the day, he decided not to take it. And it's interesting to me that there are coaches who are not jumping at the first chance

just because it's a head coaching job. You know what I mean? They're deciding, all right, I'm going to take the best opportunity. That's interesting to me. Like they're trying to control their destiny a little bit more. And sure, the coordinator pay scale is just getting bigger and bigger. I mean, I can imagine if you're Cleveland or Arizona, like, who do you find to come there now? You're going to have to find the QB coach on some team on Jacksonville or something to come.

It's just no one with any type of pull is going to take those jobs and those tough divisions. It's just not worth it. You can see three years you're out. Jonathan Gannon had Kyler Murray. You had a guy who was supposed to be pretty good. It didn't work, right? I wonder if I'm John Harbaugh, did I pull the trigger too soon on the Giants? Because wouldn't John Harbaugh love to go coach the Buffalo Bills right now?

Yeah. You know, any candidate, if they had known they could go get Josh Allen, I don't know why Mike Tomlin isn't jumping off the couch to convince the Steelers and the bills to make a deal to get him to be the coach there. That is an ideal situation for him. Well, I don't know if you saw Matt Mitchell going through it on our social medias, but I think right now the bills as desirable as the job might be. We talk all the time, buddy. it starts at the top.

And that owner... That was a weird press conference. Yeah, as much as we love, we've enjoyed these owner interviews, that man took a blow torch to about six, seven years of really good grace that a lot of fans have

for that builds of organization. So true. Organization that felt like they've been doing it right these last couple of years. And yeah, like you said, it'll be interesting what coach is going to end up there where it just seems like a lot of turmoil.

But I think it'll cool off, like you said, that Josh Allen piece, that's the enticing piece. But to know you have a psycho path owner and potentially a president of your cooperation that's willing to throw you under the bus at a moment's notice, not the best situation. Not a great look for GMs this year.

Between Andrew Berry in Cleveland, being in Buffalo, Joe Shine in New York, all of them came out looking like to any executive in the wider world, like kind of weasily do to much. manage up and then through the underlings under the bus and came out on the other side looking pretty good to management you know what i mean yeah it honestly would literally be me and you doing a picture on every monday i would just come in and say well chat i didn't like that pick

that was your pick and then you being like well no no i didn't like that one that was your pick and i mean that's what it felt like it was just straight bickering it's like no i'm not the one that screwed this up where it's like dude you got to own your mistakes and keep it moving my god that was, I just have never seen a team throw their number one pick or first round pick under the bus like that. And we'll see what Keonanan Coleman wants to do. But it's definitely an awkward situation. Simon, you and I are BFFs.

We don't throw each other under the bus. Sometimes. We've been through it. We've been through the battles. We've been through the battles. We've been through the battles. We stayed loyal to each other. You, me and Matt Mitchell, we came out on the other side.

Right? Is that what happened? This is our Thursday conference championship preview episode. We're going to narrow down the options. Find the five picks we can agree on in the week. Getting harder, only two games. We're going to inch our way closer. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pod, Spotify. Let's get this thing going every week. We're going to give it our picks. Every week, Simon's fellow pro gamblers are going to give them an earful about those picks. We had a lot of debate about these two games on Tuesday. It's time to see. summarize those opinions. Special championship weekend

edition of Sharp calls. Yeah, well, I'll start with the game that the pros aren't too split on, right? I gave away a little bit of the handle on Tuesday show which I love to this Denver Broncos team. And what I thought was going to happen did happen, right? If you were lucky enough to get the six, congrats here legally. I don't think we ever got above the five and a half. And that number is totally gone.

Like I'm looking right now, every book is basically four and a half. There's a couple still holding that five, but you just do the pros. You're going to come in on this side. And yeah, for professionals I've talked to, I know some guys right to have positions on the Patriots. And sure, they took a early position to have great numbers. But for big money, real money, professional money, it is very heavily Denver, which is making me a little nervous. But we'll get more into that one. We will discuss some of this.

Yeah, the over, obviously professionals came in very heavy on this Denver over. It was 40 and a half, and we talked about it. I think the most of them are the same reason as I do, right? If this blizzard of 2026 doesn't touch Colorado and it's just high 20s, sunny, two quarterbacks that could potentially turn the ball over a lot, it should move up and it has, right? It's up to 42 and a half. So nice to see I wasn't totally wrong on my early feelings about this over.

I just, I wish I wasn't as gunshot. I wish I'd just lean into it right away on Tuesday's show. And yeah, for the L.A. Calks game, this one is very split. It's really split in the sense about what number can you get here, right? I think a lot of pros that I talked about, there was a lot of resistance at the three. I'm still seeing pros take L.A. at the two and a half. So it's, it's really interesting where it's very, very public, obviously, the C.Ox. We knew it was going to be, right?

This is a ramp scene that most people have left for dead. but I am just shocked to see how much professional love there is for the Rams. So that's going to be a really fun back and forth as well. And another total that's pretty split. Most pros I've talked to, though, they lean towards the under. Once again, these are the same pros that like Seattle. So it makes sense. If you like Seattle, you're going to like the under.

And if you really do like the Rams, why would you not expect to be a shootout, right? That's the type of game you're hoping for if you're back of the Rams. So, yeah, for the sharp calls this week, it's been a lot of debate about the sides and the totals, but not so much in that Denver Patriots game. That feels very one-sided professionally. I love it.

We're going to have a good conversation because that Rams Seahawks game. We talked about a little before we came in the air, so I'm still a little bit vexed. All right, so we'll be back to our normal Sunday routine, pre-game show in the morning, post-game show after the Rams Seahawks game. These will be our last Sunday shows of the season.

No more long, frightened. dreadful walk up the third floor steps for me. We're going to do our brass balls, better the week. On Sunday, we still weren't quite decided on where we wanted to land and needed a little more intel before we wanted to make that pick. We wanted to be as confident as possible, so we'll do that on Sunday.

All right, like I said, subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, subscribe and like this video. You can also subscribe to Sharper Square and Apple Pod, Spotify, et cetera. Our contest players, reminder, we include sides and totals for all the games, plus some props this week. All right. New England at Denver. The line has come down. It was five and a half.

It's now four and a half. The total is 42 and a half. It's gone up in the 48 hours since you made this game, Simon says, look, you set it on Tuesday. This is all I've seen for 48 hours. Every person I talk to, every person I respect in the industry, they have hammered the Broncos at five and a half. And they felt like the line move in the Broncos direction from a professional point of view was just too big. Like they would have had this game, Broncos two, two and a half. We talked about this on Tuesday.

moving it eight points is just too much for a quarterback like Bo Nix who like average 6.4 yards per attempt. And insurance did him. You have a guy who has been statistically a league average starter, not backup, league average starter when you look at his EPA. So Simon, I think we're both really comfortable with the Broncos at five and a half. I'm still comfortable at four and a half. Like, you know, four is the key number here.

It's the line of demarcation for me. So I'm still comfortable with the Broncos here. Yeah, I'm just like you. I love it. And like you, I'm also, it's never any amount of positive Denver picks. I think that. Now I hate it. Now I hit it.

Yeah, exactly. That's what's making me a little nervous where it's like it feels a little bit like pros are talking down the general public. And especially people that watch a lot of game film where it's like, oh, they don't know. They don't know. I've watched these guys three games. I've asked three-season games. And I mean, I might have been Jordan Palmer.

It was someone that coaches up quarterbacks. We basically went on, I don't know if it was Dan Patrick or Rich Eisen's show. He went on one of those shows and basically said, on any given day, cinema is just as good as Drake, May. Oh, Jesus. Right. And it's like people are going too far one way. But my favorite thing about football, it isn't every given Sunday.

can for one day can he outplay Drake May who's in a hostile environment on the road facing the number two scoring defensive football yes like that that is more realistic than saying he can outplay the potential MVP of the NFL this season so yeah the back and forth has been a little tough to digest you know the numbers like I talked about I don't want to poo poo the Patriots I didn't want to give them respect I think I talked about a little bit that Drake May is 8-0 straight up this season 7-1 against a spread on the road he's been been the best road quarterback. So as much as you would say he struggled with adversity or he will in this game because he's on the road, I mean, yeah, it's a soft schedule, but he showed up in those games, right? It's not cakewalk that went on the road, let alone in Buffalo, which is what he did. You know, I've been impressed by what Drake's on the road, but this is a total different beast.

Like the playoffs on the road, not even that, a playoff on the road against a team that is rallying around an injured quarterback. And that's what's been so oppressive with Denver. Even Bo Nick's talking about his like farewell or whatever his report after he got hurt. I think he put on Instagram or something. Just basically talked about how the whole team is around and around instead of. And like it's like his good friend and he believes in him and all this stuff. It just seems like.

And now that it's giving me the Nick Folves vibe. It kind of is right. It's like a team that's like, well, no one's counting on us anymore. Everyone's going against us. And you know, it's if you're in New England as, good as you are, it's fair for us to have questions about your team, right? It is fair to question that you've had an easy discussion. It is fair to question that you face two quarterbacks that have totally melted in the playoffs. And if Stememem can just play within the Champaign offense,

I do think he could succeed. And, you know, looking at their injury report, Chad, they're going to have Franklin back. They're going to have all these receivers back. And you could say, well, who cares about Franklin? This is a guy that he had a ton of work, not only in the pre-steads. season, but in a lot of practice. He was a guy that played a lot of second team reps, which to me is a big deal. And when you break it down, you go through their roster, Franklin was number two in their team in touchdowns. He was Sutton at seven. Franklin had six. So again, it's to show my hand a little bit on props. You have to bet a Franklin touchdown anytime prop. Like they've moved it down a little bit. It did open a plus

350. It's come down a little bit. I think most people have what I have, which is that ton of info that he's worked a lot with Franklin these last two years. It's been a guy that he's stays after practice with him and Bo Nix and works on reps and running routes. That's a real thing, those type of connections. When the bullets start flying and he's starting to panic, he'll throw into coverage to a guy like Franklin, something that he has a rapport with and trust with. So that was something that jumped out right away where it's like, okay, me and Chad have to make some type of prop bet.

I don't mind. I don't mind on tact in Franklin's type of props of either receptions or his over-receiving yards. He feels like he's going to be the forgotten man because we already know Chris Gonzalez is going to be on Sutton. I'm assuming they'll have Chris Gonzalez drop in Sutton who's been, you know, he did have bad drops last week, but he has been their number one cheaper this year. The Broncos, no doubt about it.

So I am leaning a little bit into Franklin here. And I saw Dobbins possibly can come back here, which is a huge deal. Yeah. That run game. So, you know, the injuries, it's brutal about Knicks. The rest of their team for Denver, seems like it's getting healthy at the right time. And, you know, the more numbers I dive into defensively, I think they're going to be able to give Drake May some real problems.

So yeah, like I keep saying I'm highly confident in you, but just like highly confident in Denver, but just like you, it feels like every pro I know. Everyone I've talked to is just. Yeah, it's becoming too much. It's like there was the shock of, you know, the news the other day. And, excuse me, and everyone sort of letting it settle to your credit, you were on it right away. on Tuesday. As soon as we got off the show, I bet it at Hard Rock Beck, because I was still in Florida, bet it as big as I could. And as my as my system would allow, meaning my internal gut system, what my stomach can handle. But don't forget this Patriots defense, they're kind of awesome

against the run. So it doesn't really matter if Dobbins is back. This is going to be a Jared Stidham game. Like, he is going to have to throw the ball so many times. Sean Payton, backup quarterbacks in his career, 17 and 5. He is not afraid to scheme with backup quarterbacks. He's not afraid to let loose with backup quarterbacks. And to your point, to all of the analyst point, the drop-off from Bownix to Stidham is not as dramatic as the point spread is allowing.

I don't think we're betting money line on the Broncos here. I did take a taste of the Broncos to win the Super Bowl because why not when all of a sudden there's a team in the title game for the weekend and they're 11 to 1, 12 to 1, 13 to 1. That's just a rarity. You might as well take a flyer. But also because their defense is so elite. And Drake May has been so bad against the rush, against the past. the past few weeks. Fumbled six times, 10 sacks in the past two weeks. Been dismal against pressure. The Patriots overall have been worse stopping pressure since

Will Campbell came back from the injury. How many times have we seen on TV, the analyst pointing out Will Campbell just getting bull rushed by guys into Drake May's face and disrupting his ability to step up in the pocket? So it's going to be an interesting game. It's a great matchup defensively for the Broncos, and you know they're going to be amped and feel like they have to do more because of the Bonix injury. Yeah, poor Will Campbell, who's not fully healthy and it comes back from an injury and then has to go against two really good defensive lines. And like you said, it doesn't get any much easier here. And they honestly haven't been helping them. Like a lot of times because they like to pass it to the running backs out of the back,

they don't chip with them. Like they're literally leaving on one-on-one against guys who, you know, even last week, like Will Anderson just had his way with him, like you said. And, you know, For me, I know it might not mean much to you as much it means to me, but Dobbins to me is a big deal just because he was so important for them this season. And like anytime they needed that third and three, third and four, they would run it where when he got out, Champagne basically never took out of Bo Nex's hands on those type of place. Yeah.

He would just say, well, I rather live and die with Bo Knicks here than Harvey, the rookie getting the carrier. And he does trust. We've seen him lean into him here down the stretch. but Dobbins, he played 10 games for him. He still led the team in rushing by almost 200 yards, even though he's been out since week 10. So he was really important for them early in the season.

And before we move off this one, I just want to give it out one more time. Like Chad said, I wouldn't do the money line. Like I did give out the Super Bowl future just because that's where the value is. And the books have followed, right? You could have got 13-0-1, 14-1. The best I can see now is 12-1 tops.

I'm seeing a lot of 11 to 1's 10 to 1. So the books have reacted, right? The money has coming on that future, like Chad said in Denver, they make the Super Bowl. But there's overtime stat. I'll give it out one more time, Chad, because it is, it just isn't, it's just what we talk about, right? The wearing and tearing these guys' bodies.

In the playoffs, in the history of the playoffs, I should say, or since 2002, teams to play in overtime and then have a game, obviously, the next week. in the playoffs are just six and 13 straight up since 2015. They're a 104 against the spread, losing by 15 points per game, 0 and 5 straight up. So, you know, not the best for the Broncos,

but at least for them is they have the rest, right? They have extended rest because they play on the Saturday, so hopefully they won't affect them as much as the next year. I'm about to talk about this Rams team. But, yeah, I am like you. I did not bet the Denver's money. I just simply bet Super Bowl futures in. It's interesting too, the look ahead lines.

They were nine and a half, eight. So the Seahawks were nine and a half favorites. And I believe the Rams were eight and a half favorites over the Denver Broncos. Both those lines as well have come down. So I know it's people won't get it that why professionals are hammering this Denver team. It's just you're always looking for these opportunities of teams to win Super Bowls, little not the quarterback. And we've had a, we've not that we haven't had one in a while,

but the last one I can really think of is Denver with Peyton Manning. And this feels a lot like it, right? Like that Patriots team with Brady, they might have been a three-point favorite having in Denver because no one believed in Peyton Manning, right? And I know he was a new to long time, but he threw for two touchdowns in that game. Like they won that game with just great dominant defense.

I think it's a little bit of that here. So Patriots historically have never won in Denver in the playoffs in the career. They're 0 and 4, straight up 0 and 4 against the spread. And you think about all those great Brady teams. Whatever it was, that was his, you just had the bad mojo a mile high. And we talk all the time. That thin air, it does get to you eventually, right? And, you know, Denver, you know, they're up 10 points at half against the Bills.

But in the second half, you did see it when Bo Nex was scrambling. The Bills guys, we're sucking win. Like, that's a real thing. So I'm interested in how this game goes in the sense that if it is, A Dobbins game where you can lean on the run the second half, if they can wear out this Patriots defense. I do think that's a real thing for this Broncos team. So, yeah, I hope everyone grabbed it.

If you haven't grabbed the number in the best you can get us, four and a half, still don't mind that number either. I told you, I really think this number should be in three and a half by kickoff. We'll see the pros do with this one. I could see them still coming in heavy. Maybe this does just three and a half. So you want to grab the Broncos now. I'd grab the five or four and a half.

You still can. The one thing I would say about Dobbins, if it's not Dobbins, Jared Steader might throw the ball 35 times. Because even in overtime, Sean Payton only ran the ball 11 times. So we know what we're going to get from Sean Peyton. He's going to put the ball in the quarterback's hand and he's going to let it ride if it's not someone that he really trusts in the backfield to carry the ball. One more thing about Sean Peyton. when he's a field goal dog or more in his career, 66% against the spread.

So really, it's like we are betting against that trend about overtime, but everything else is in the direction of betting on the Broncos. A lot of the total Sunday. I think, I don't know if Chad's with me on it, but I'm all knee over. I'm just having bet it as heavy. It comes Sunday and morning, I'll have a much stronger opinion on, but as we say you're right now. weather. Right. And that's my

sure. I like it. They could get an Arctic blast. It could be eight degrees at kickoff throwing them. So I want to know what's happening. The props that are going to be listed in this game for the contest, Drake May, passing touchdowns, one and a half, Jared Stidham, Interceptions,

a half. So those will be the props that are available in the contest. I like that Stenham over. Yeah, so do I. Yeah. A lot, actually. Man, that's probably a real chalky of us, but right away when you read that, it's like that. I know.

It seems weird. A real gracious prop to give it to a guy making his first start in two years. Yeah. I'm putting on my glasses, Simon, because we got a new sponsor. And I want to make sure I get it exactly right. We got the three biggest games of football remain. And like I did down in Miami, it's going to be a memorable time this weekend. See my friends, my neighbors, have some laughs, have a few drinks.

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Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, new? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas, we invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a...

We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually... actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys. I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it.

We were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas,

and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. but thanks for remembering that guys listen to hey jonas on the iheart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcast just listen we don't care where you hear it another podcast from some s nl late night comedy guy not quite unhumored me with robert smigel and friends me and hilarious guests from bob odenkirk to davidler help make you funnier this week my guest s n l's mikey day and head writer streeter sidel help an acapella band with their between songs banter where does your group perform we do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm CJ Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defining the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level

that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nasree. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too.

Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He run up the court, licking his fingers, why he got the ball, like. After you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is. Getting a racist statue removed.

And here's something that should be a whole lot easier than it is. Getting a new one put up in its place. As long as there's a politics of race in America, there's going to be a politics of remembering the Civil War. To get to school, I had to go down Robert Lee Boulevard. Get to the grocery store. I had to go down Jefferson Davis Parkway. If you're an historian and you leave out half of what the history is, you're not doing your job. I'm Akila Hughes. In Rebel Spirit, Season 2 goes deep on both of those things. The fights, the politics, the people who won, and my personal campaign to add something to the Kentucky State House that's actually worth the wall space. We are more than our bodies. We contain essence. We contain spirit. How do you represent? that. They are just fueling a fire that is really catching. You'll see what I mean.

Listen to Rebel Spirit season two on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, minus two and a half. The total is 46.5. I think you and I are split on this game. I haven't bet it yet. But I keep looking at the Rams and thinking the only thing that is in the way of the Rams, is when Sean McVeigh makes bad decisions in the middle of the game. You look back at that Bears game and his game plan, which he's talked about, was atrocious. Like, it's mind-boggling.

He barely ran the heavy packages, which the Bears can't stop. He barely ran the ball, which the Bears couldn't stop. The only two times they really ran the ball, they scored touchdowns. I mentioned on Tuesday, like, I worry about these moments in the game where McBae and Stafford seem to have these lapses. McVeigh makes some questionable decision. Stafford can't find his rhythm. But in those two games against the Seahawks,

including Week 16, they've been dominant. So I got a lot of stats. I got a lot of thoughts. I want to share them. But first, I want to give you a chance to respond because I want to make sure that my bias for the Rams is not moving me into a bad place. Yeah, and my fear of the Rams is it's a sharp trap.

Everything about it is a sharp trap. Like, why wouldn't you take them as a dog, especially when you, just like you said, if you just go blindly off the two games this year, the Rams won their first meeting 2119 and didn't get the cover, which again, that haunted us because we had them in the contest where they're basically 21 to 7 the whole game. Right. They were winning that whole game.

Like that was a, they dominated that game. Absolutely dominated that game. And like to me, this is the peak though. This is like we talk about, this is peak Rams. This is Rams right when they're basically just on an insane run of being the best team in football. And the next time they play, I think it was the 19th of December. They lose without Devante Adams by 1.3837. Just an insane game over time.

Gained 500 yards against the best defense and didn't have Devante Adams or Kevin Dotson. But the Seahawks, they had their own injuries in that game. They lost two starting corners and I think they lost the safety as well. And they didn't have a left tackle. Right. So it's like I can't fault you for taking the points to your Chad because all these games, margins, we just said it was one and two. Yeah.

Yeah, you're getting two and a half. just blindly playing the numbers game, it's like, okay, if they play this game a thousand times, I agree with Chad. Like, if you're just 50-50, it feels like more often than that, you will be right on the ramp side. That's what the number is kind of telling you here. But I'm going to keep giving out the numbers, and I'm going to try banging the people's heads. The NFL did an absolute job on this ramps team. Like, they've already made it really hard for these wildcar teams to make a run.

That's why we haven't had one in a while. I think the last one we had was I can't think. I'm trying to think back. Was it Kansas City? Were they a wildcar team? No, because they always won their division, right? The Chargers always showed. Oh, right.

Yeah, it's just, again, it's been a long time. We've not had it since the changing of the one seed, right? Since the two seed plays a seventh seed and the one seed's the only team with a buy, we've not had a wildcar team make a run, which again, shows you more how important that biweek is where every year feels like the team that has a biweek usually makes a Super Bowl. I know it didn't happen last year, but it's been happening the years before. And those Rams team are walking right into it.

I just talked about they're in rest disadvantage. They played on a Sunday against a team that played on a Saturday. Okay, let's just look at the numbers, blindly look at those numbers. In the playoff history, teams and those rest disadvantage, a team they played an extra day, and they're all, and they played an overtime game. They're a one in eight straight up in this exact spot in the history of the playoffs. Three and six against the spread, which I guess is a little beneficiary of you in the Rams.

The one outright Wren, just can Chad remember, one outright win on a team with the rest of the surface? Probably not. It was the Bears over the Saints in 06-07. So it's been a long time. Like it's just been a very long time since the team has played an overtime game, had shorter rest, we're able to go on the road against a higher seed and win a game. It's just, I mean, think about that. It's really impossible to stack against it. So can they find a way? Yeah, we just talked about. Like Stafford's been here before. This man has gone. Monous Super Bowls.

It's funny enough for me, if they were a favorite here on the Rams, Chad, I'd be much more confident. I'd give you those numbers. Those are a favorite. Stafford McVeigh, they win outright every time. Like, when they're a favorite, they just always win. In the playoffs, Stafford's never lost as a favorite. He's 5-0 straight up in his career as a favorite, best mark of any quarterback in NFL

history. So it's telling you, it's telling by the books, right? They open this at one and a half. The pros betted up. The resistance was felt at three. the pros have hit this back on the other side, right? There's tons of pros on the ramp side, and they're still hitting the two and a half,

but like I've said, there's some very heavy resistance from these pros on this yalks team. Like, there's a reason this number hasn't been bet down. I've been hoping I could get under the two because, like, Chad, I do think this number could be very close, very close type of game, but when I just look at this matchup, you know, I would have a much more confidence if I had reports of Sam Darnold, no longer an issue,

practice in full this whole week. He's been limited. They basically have them on, I think it was like a rep of like 10 to 20 throws, rest, and then maybe another 10 to 20 throws in practice. It's like, okay, that's not something I want to be hearing about a quarterback that we expect this to be a game where there's points, right? I just, more often than now, there should be points of this game. So, you know, like you, I'm having a tough time with this one with the total on the side

where I was definitely more confident on Tuesday with this CYawks. I still am confident. I just, I can't believe this is a legit lingering issue for Sam Darnold. Like he threw 17 times in that game. You would think, you know, that he didn't take any hits.

Like he would be much better this week. And it's like, okay, that was a serious, serious injury that they're not letting out because to be limiting him in this week, that just shows what he's going through. So I totally gave him your coming from on the,

on the L.A. side. And like I said, it's hard for me to go against him. I just, then more of I look at this one, the more of I dive into, it's like, can they overcome the injuries to their offensive line? Can they overcome the injuries to their secondary of this Rams team? And, you know, that Bears team, it felt like they were running it down their throats,

yeah. They really felt like they were moving in. They just felt like they were so much bigger than this Rams D-Line. And looking at the weight, the spread to see, it's the same exact thing here. Like this, this is a big O line for this, the Seattle team on the flip side. Their D-tackles talked about. They have two all pros. I mean, on that detackle line.

Like, Stafford's going to have pressure up the middle, something he is not facing these players. And that's what kills. Yeah. That's what kills Stafford. It's also what kills Donald. Like, the Rams have not had a hard time getting pressure against Donald, whether he's been with the Seahawks or with the Vikings. Don't forget, like, in these last three games,

he's thrown something like 11 interceptions against this Rams defense. It's the defense that has his number, literally. So it's tricky. It's just tricky. No, it's really hard. And I just, I'm trying to lean into the rest and the rest, because I do think it's such an important key that the general public does overlook. They just think these guys, you know, they're grown men.

How bad beat up can they be? But it's like, you're talking about a rampson that has not had a buy week. They've been playing playoff games since week 10 or 11. Like every game they've had to win. because of the Seahawks team. They had to keep pace. They had no days off. They had no rest weeks.

And the Seahawks, they did it. They got the once in the got the biweek and they got the easy competition last week. So like I said, if Sam Darner was fully healthy, I'd be feeling the same way I feel about Denver. I'd be pounded on the table with the Seahawks team. They're being undervalied by the market. But this number feels right by the market price. So it's like I can't tell you you're getting crazy value on the Seahawks team.

You're really not. You might be getting half a point of value. That's nothing to go too crazy about. How many games, Simon, have the Rams lost this season by more than three points? The only one I got to think of is that Eagles fluke cover we had. Eagles fluke cover, the walk-off blocked field goal. That's it. Yeah.

So we're not going to get a three in the contest. Like it's going to be two and a half. There's no doubt about it. So we're going to have a hard decision. But if this line gets to three at any point, I would highly recommend people. People are trying to pay attention to this. This is how the wise guys do it. They're not resting.

They're not like, oh, I'll check it again in an hour. They are figuring out ways to make sure if that line ever gets to three, they are taking the Rams here. It's kind of what I'm waiting on is I'm hoping to get the Rams at plus three lean into those stats from the year that are playing every game. They're in it, even if they're losing it. But it's hard. I mean, the Rams going into that week 16 game,

the other team everybody thought was going to the Super Bowl. And I don't know that they're still not that team since they lost that game in very flukish ways. They were up in that game 30 to 14, 30 to 14. And then that's when Rashidh ran that return back for a touchdown. And that's when they had the fluky two-point conversion. and that's when they lost in overtime after they were up in overtime on another two-point conversion. Like that game cost them the rest they needed.

It cost them the playoff seating. It cost them the buy week. Now they're in Seattle playing for a NFC title on the road instead of at home. Yeah. And just once again, if you're just blindly betting this stuff, you should be blindly betting Denver. You should be blindly betting the Seahawks. And if you want to play it super safe, you can go to the money line. but it's like I'm saying,

the Rams are an impossible spot. If you're betting the Rams, you're betting on a 25% chance of winning type of spot. That's how bad the spot is. And again, it's all about the rest. And this is their third straight road game. Giving those numbers,

third straight road game, if you're the underdog, 9 and 28 straight up, so 24% historically. So here's the question. It's impossible. It's an impossibly brutal spot for the Rams. Can they do it?

Of course, I'm just telling you, in your lifetime, 50 years, if you continually bet the ramp side, you're the sucker. They're getting. Well, so that's the answer to my question, which is, as professionals, which do you give more credence to the spot or the matchup? If all things are equal, if the matchup is equal, let's say the matchup is a little bit

of an advantage for the Rams even. But the spot is horrendous. which do you give more weight to? This time of year, always the spot. Just because I can't get over how important those numbers are where it's just like, we dive so much into all the matchups,

all this other stuff. For the end of the day, it's like, can these guys' bodies hold up heading to the fourth quarter? Like, you still have your legs underneath you. Because these guys, again, will Devante Adams still have his legs?

Yeah, he sat out for three, four weeks with an injury. I'm talking about their left guard who has been playing now for 20 straight weeks. Like, I just think about all that he's going through. Now he's going against possibly the best D-Line on football who's rested. So that's what I mean. That's why I just keep trying to bring up these numbers

because we're trying to find an edge here. I'm trying to find something to lean people to one side. And it's like, like we're talking about here, the numbers are so close on the field, the matchup's so close, you have to go find other areas where where is the advantage for which team? The rest advantage is so heavily skewed to the Seahawks team. That's why I just, I keep being people over the head with it because it's like, I'm like, Chad, right away,

I thought I'd be over the Rams team, the more I've dove into it. It's like, man, this Seahawks team, the NFL is really, just like the Patriots, right? The Patriots had easy schedule. The Seahawks, they earned that right to have an easy run in the playoffs, right? They earned that right for that one seat to have this rest advantage, and they're going to exploit it here, which to me is such a big deal. Such an interesting game. Such an interesting game.

I don't know what we're going to do in the contest at this point. I think it's going to be a late Sunday selection. Simon, what's your biggest bet here this week? Pull up those pants and be a man. Yeah, Denver, no doubt. That's all my money so far as I've been into it. Denver was the Siberia of the NFL. The Broncos was so terrible that the team was exiled by the media.

And the players became prisoners in pro football's wasteland. You know, I've touched the Seahawks at two and a half, but I'm just trying to be patient, hoping the pros do come in and maybe I do get one and a half. And people are like, wouldn't that scare you off? I honestly wouldn't. Like the playoffs, it's so unique where there's only two games. It's like, you know, heavy respected money coming on one side.

It's not that scary in the sense that if I'm getting a better, I'm really in that side, I'll take it. And if anything, if you're betting huge, huge money here, I would just play. It's if I did with the Patriots. I just took the money line last week with the Patriots. I'd do the same with the Seahawks here. Like, could this game land on the one? Yeah.

I just told you they played two games this year and it's been a two point and a one point victory by both teams. Like it's split between them. No one would be shocked if this number lands around on the two, right? We talk all the time. Two has become such a sharp number and it lands on it all the time. So if you're betting actually heavy money here and you're a little scared off by the spread, no issue doing the money on a slug. So that's probably end up doing. And yeah, for for the sides and totals for first halfs and different things like that, you know, I, I, I've leaned into a little bit of the Patriots first half, just in case Stidham has a little bit of the jitters. And we've seen Drake May. You know, he has in the playoffs played much better in the second half. But as a team, the Patriots have played much better, I think, in the first half. So, yeah, if you don't want to take a side or a total that we're giving out for full game, I don't hate taking Patriots first half. But obviously, to me, that that's one-tenth of what I'm betting on Denver full game.

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as a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. It's time to do some Sharp versus Square. Well, before we get to that. Oh, yeah, sure.

Could I talk about the gambling loss tax bill that's going on right now? Of course. So unfortunately, if you haven't been keeping up for it, If we're going to have to pay losses on our, we're going to pay taxes on our losses upcoming year. And they've been trying to pass bills now to go against it. And basically the 100% gambling loss tax deduction was blocked today,

unfortunately, by the House committee, which does suck. But it's, it's something that if you're into this stuff and like me, you care about because it does affect our livelihood. The blocked without the vote issue, it usually isn't policy. It's usually the process.

So it's not totally dead here. The bill is not totally dead, in my opinion. If both parties support it, maybe we can find another way. But it's not something you can totally give up on yet. It did hit the floor today, right? It did not go through. But obviously, it's something very important to me, not just professional and betters, poker players, everybody that has a life in this world.

The general public, I'm telling you, next year come tax season, you're going to lose your mind. We have to pay 10% on your losses. So I just want to keep people up to the end. know we had a couple of people ask about it. Unfortunately, it didn't work out today, but it's something I will keep bringing up and keep monitoring as we go along here. Right now, I think the policy, they don't like the way it was written. Like I said, it's not dead people. It's just it didn't go through today, obviously. And it didn't get

shut down either. It's just, it's kind of in limbo. Well, if there's a lot going on in the betting world, we try to be pretty focused during the season just because there's so much to talk about with who we're going to bet on. And we know that's, That's an exciting part of why people are coming to the show. But between what's happening with prediction markets, what's happening legally with laws like like this, what's happening with increased scrutiny on game fixing, the scandals in college basketball, there's so much going on in this space that is fascinating. Obviously, I've been working on a book about this for a little, for about a year.

So I have a lot of thoughts on this and a lot of details and a lot of research. And once we get to the off season, we're going to dig in on a lot of these other topics. Sharp versus square, Simon, I feel like I know what you want and you've earned the right to go first and make the first selection. I do. But if you want to go head to head, I'm also open to that. If you want to go Rams, I go Seahawks. I'm open to it. People know I love Denver.

Yeah. I'm just having such a hard time with the Rams. I don't know if I'm committed to them yet. Like I would you want to take Denver then? Then I'd take Seahawks if you're feeling good about Denver. Okay. I'll take Denver. I mean,

if you feel that good. But this also puts us in a box because what if come Sunday we decide, wait a second, we're taking the Rams and then. I don't care. It's true for square. That'd be on me. But again,

I like, I'm comfortable enough to put the Seahawks here. I know you're wavering a little bit on the total. So it's like, you know, I'm not going to force you. I mean, you want to feel good about the.

total Dr. Nick, he's on the over in this Ram C.Ox game. Well, that's interesting. I feel like I want to take Troy Franklin anytime touchdown prop. For Sharper Square? Maybe. All right. That's balzy. If you're doing that, then I'm going to take Denver.

I obviously I like Denver. Make your decision. Let's go Jared Stidham over pass attempts. For your sharper square? Yeah. You don't even have a number though. You're just going to throw it out there? 31 and a half.

All right. All right. I'm taking Denver plus four and a half. Okay. Doubling down. All right. Denver plus four and a half. What's our parlay?

I mean, I like where you're at. I mean, like we're both at with a Franklin anytime touchdown. Like a Denver plus four and a half anytime touchdown with Franklin, that's going to be crazy good odds.

I can put that in real quick in the hardback. I love that idea. But that's, That's a really fun parley for the first game. And if you don't trust Franklin like us, cheeses are your friends. You don't have to do the whole thing because you don't want to pay minus 120.

But if you want to take Denver up three points, seven and a half, take the total down three points, a 39 and a half. Don't hate that either as a fun parlay. You're getting two key numbers. You're getting the seven and a half and you're getting under the 40. Both are fun to me for parley's for that game.

Let's do the Franklin. Yeah, I love Franklin. I love that you're in on it. It's a funny little thing. when someone broke it down to me, it's like, hey, I've been watching a lot of synom tape here, and it's a lot of Franklin in these tapes. And it's like, hey, that's a, that's a fun point. The guy's six touchdown receptions this year. So he's clearly a guy they look for in the red zone. All right. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Sunday morning

with the official picks, our brass ball, so much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. I like this video, subscribe to the channel. Also, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

The road to the Super Bowl is like a mythic quest. It's a demanding journey, an adventure that creates heroes. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what?

We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. First people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's, Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel

help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Joey Dardano, and on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives,

helping people in need with thoughtful solutions. Psych! I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me in my comedian friends, as we riff rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to me. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from a Hypocrite Wednesdays on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Conky, his best friend and business manager.

And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast.

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