The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL BETS Week 10: Ravens-Vikings, Rams-49ers, Eagles-Packers, Steelers-Chargers, Patriots-Bucs and more

Episode Date: November 7, 2025

NFL betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter deep dive into their best bets for NFL Week 10. They tell their gambling audience their favorite NFL matchups across the board, leading up to their final five against the spread bets for their weekly NFL pick 'em pool contest. We also have Simon's weekly Sharp Calls segment, where Simon recaps the phone calls he's received from fellow professional gamblers responding to our Tuesday show. NFL betting picks and predictions provided today include their best bets for Monday Night Football, with Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles visiting Wisconsin to take on Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers. They also dive into the Indianapolis Colts, fresh from their huge trade for Sauce Gardner, as they take on Michael Penix and the Atlanta Falcons. There's a huge inter-conference matchup between Lamar Jackson the Baltimore Ravens vs. J.J. McCarthy and the Minnesota Vikings, and Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills facing the hapless Miami Dolphins. We'll hear a quick word about Bo Nix and his Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football vs. the Las Vegas Raiders, and an intriguing divisional matchup between Bryce Young's Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints with new rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. Picks and predictions for NFL Week 10 also include our Brass Balls Bet of the Week, Round Robin parlays, over/under picks, survivor pool picks, Simon's biggest bets of the week, moneyline favorites and so much more. #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:04:30 - SHARP CALLS 0:06:50 - LAS VEGAS RAIDERS VS. DENVER BRONCOS 0:10:13 - NEW YORK GIANTS VS. CHICAGO BEARS 0:14:45 - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS 0:16:50 - CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. NEW YORK JETS 0:25:49 - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS 0:28:40 - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 0:33:04 - ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 0:42:57 - LOS ANGELES RAMS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 0:49:19 - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS 0:54:50 - BUFFALO BILLS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS 0:58:56 - DETROIT LIONS VS. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS 1:01:30 - PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. LA CHARGERS  1:05:00 - SIMONS BIG BETS, SURVIVOR, PARLAYS AND MORE  -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter.  Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

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But how long can this alliance last? Tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me? Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the Squares sharper.

and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined as always by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, my co-host professional better, Simon, Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing?

I don't feel like I got English enough on that. Hello, Simon. That's better. There you go. Dude, there is so much news impacting the lines since the trade deadline. And there's also just been general, massive line movement.

overall since we did our show on Tuesday, freaking wild. Absolutely freaking wild. I don't know if you've got any deep, deep thoughts on that. Let's hold them because I want to hear what the wise guys have to say in sharp calls. This is our Thursday week 10 episode. We're going to narrow down the options on the five picks. We like the best. We're going to inch our way closer.

Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pod, Spotify. Let's get into this thing. Every week, you know what we do. we are going to hear from Simon's fellow professional betterers on all the conversations we had on Tuesday. They've always got opinions. I have no doubt they'll have a lot of things to say about what we discussed. Let's get to Sharp calls. Yeah, let's start where guys are on the opposite of us, which I always always love hearing the other side and the one that really jumped out was the Chargers.

And a lot of love from the pros on the Chargers. Maybe we're suckers. I just can't get over again plus three here. That's going to be a full one to break down. Yeah, that's the Chargers Steelers game. And yeah, we're definitely going to discuss that one. So good. But yeah, a lot of pros love the Chargers.

Big Chargers spot, I guess. Let's start with the Rams as well. A lot of pros I talk to. It's like Rams money. shocked by that one. Commanders was a big talking point this week. I definitely remember us, or at least myself. I like Detroit. I still do. I'm happy they're betting it down. That's a fun when we can break down some more. Patriots, couldn't believe it. A lot of love from the Patriots. Once again, I'm dug in. I really like Tampa, starting to love it even more as I see the injury

report and what guys are healthy for this Tampa team. So pretty interesting how much love there is for this Patriot side. And the sides we agree on, Chad. We already know. Jets, that was going to be a pro side. It's fluctuated, this number since the trade deadline. That's going to be a full one to break down.

Miami, tons of love from the pros, tons of love for Houston. I'm going against the pros here. I didn't even mention it, the Raiders. Talk to some pros. I really like that one.

Again, another game will hold steady fast and I really like Denver in that spot. And the last one that shocked me, tons of love for the pros on this bear side, a game that I felt like we were kind on the other side of it.

We talked out. We kind of like the Giants. I'll give you some reasons why they like that bear side if we break that game down later. Oh, we're going to break it down because it's one of the games that I was thinking about and it was in contention for brass balls because that number has moved quite a bit. And I haven't been able to figure out what other than professional money coming in on the bears in this spot. So you also mentioned another game that I've been getting more and more nervous about, which is the box because I cannot figure out how that line hasn't moved from two. one half to three yet. So some pushback from the wise guys is probably why. But first, let's get to that Raiders Broncos game. Obviously, it's our Thursday show.

So a lot of people might not hear the show until after the game. You're getting some feedback from the professionals on the Raiders side. We both love Denver. And like, this wasn't even a question. We actually were debating if Denver was going to be Simon Says or, Chad's choice because we both liked it so much. We liked it at eight and a half. It's now at nine and a half. I don't know what the wise guys are seeing in the Raiders. You can't take anything from that game against a Jack's team that lost their best pass rusher because he tried to punch a guy

in the face and you're still playing against a not very good defense. Brock Bowers was wide open every game, I mean, every play, isn't all this stuff the Broncos can account for in a short week in a game the Raiders went to a full overtime? And they're not a very good team? I don't get it. I don't get it. Yeah, I think most of the white guys I talk to, they just don't trust, you know, a quarterback like Bo Nix to be this big of a favorite in a divisional game, especially when you look at the history of Denver, right? And this is the hardest part, too, because to me, it's a lot of it's irrelevant to history of Denver before Champagne took over, but they have not won against a divisional opponent in a primetime game since like 2017.

Okay. Doesn't matter. Doesn't matter. That was my exact pushback. It's like, if you look at those teams from those years, they were bad. They had bad coaches. They just weren't good. And they've been in a really competitive, tough division all throughout those years.

So that makes sense, though, why they'd push back because it is technically a huge number in a divisional game in a short week. but I already gave it out. I gave out that overtime stat, which to me is just makes so much sense. And it was actually wrong. I thought it was 3 and 23. I forgot last year, the Bears in this exact spot

actually won uncovered or covered last year against the Lions. Remember that insanely fluky game on Thanksgiving? Yeah, dear, where the Lions should have been up 72 to nothing in the first half. Even then, they're up 21, nothing, or 21 to 3 of the first half. And somehow Bears came back,

and covered really late. So, you know, I'm not going to get pushed off this one. I get where they're coming from, and I'm with you. I just think defensively, schematically, they can take away Bowers. And then what are you going to do as an offense? Like I know they're trying to establish a run, but just not has been working. Chip Kelly, whatever he's going to do, it's not been working with that run game. And, Gino, I still think even in that game, as good as he looked, he still had so many

horrible throws, so much questionable moving with his feet. And it's just a really tough spot. obviously we talked about it, being on a short week here on the road against the Denver team that, you know, we put it as one of the best teams in all football. Like we're respected in that way, defensively especially. So I know it's a lot to swallow bone next year, but I can't get away from it. I really like it. And I don't know, maybe we do put in the contest.

We'll figure it out because there are five games I like this week. But people know I really love this game. I love this matchup. First half, Denver, full game, Denver. I'm all over it. Yeah, same, same. Not shame. Same.

Maybe we'll be shamed, but I don't think so. This was one like coming out of my one in four malaise. This is one of the games that made me start to feel like, okay, I can see it. I have clarity. I'm feeling confident. I felt good about this one. God, we need it. We cannot start the week 0 and 1.

Dude, we freaking need it. As Bob Scootie, our old friend Bob Scootie, we like to say, we need this for our lungs. we are underwater. All right, New York Giants at the Chicago Bears. This line, it blew up over the last 48 hours. It got up to four and a half. It's down to four at Hard Rock. We've talked about Hard Rock.

It's a sharp book. So that gives you an indication of what the wise guys think when this line got to four and a half. But they also loved the Bears at three. They loved the Bears at three and a half. And some pushed it up from four to four and a half. I started to see the Giants. and I talked about this on Tuesday,

the Bears' run defense is so bad. And their, I mean, not their run defense, their past defense is so bad. And their secondary is so bad. You could see how Jackson Dart could have a lot of success against the Bears and a defense that, by the way, has not been able to hold anybody under a 25-point game. I'm exaggerating, but that's basically the line of demarcation here,

unless they were committing, forcing a bunch of turnovers. They won against the commanders because of a bad handoff that got them the win in that primetime game against Jaden Daniels. They beat the Cowboys because of a bunch of turnovers. They beat the Saints, which still came close to covering because of a bunch of turnovers. Every other game they've had, it's going down to the wire and it's close, and they're winning because there's something fluky happening and because Ben Johnson is a miracle. not because this team is very good.

So four and a half just feels like too many points. I'm surprised to hear the wise guys say they're liking the bears here. Yeah, I'm probably going to have to join them here, Chad. If you really don't like a side here, I think there is still value on the total. The total is down to 46.5 and all the reason behind this movement to me is because of the weather people. Like we're tracking models. You're getting tons of info. And right now, a bunch of different models are predicting rain or snow and very cold temperature in this matchup, which to me favors this Bears team that wants to run the ball heavily and has one of the best run schemes in all football against a defense that is really bad.

Giants are bottom 30 in the league. Terrible. Yeah. They're the worst. Are they now? Yeah. Yeah. So it's just.

The Bears, you're right. I'm just like, obviously, I have a strong opinion about the bear. their run offense has been so good, and that is a major, major factor against his team. And the weather, you're right, could be, it just might play into the way Ben Johnson wants to play this game. It'll give an excuse not to let Caleb Williams throw the ball. Yeah. And again, you can take these positions and get out of it Sunday if this all blows over and

these models are turly off. But, you know, they're should be pretty accurate. You're two, three days out here. The line has come down from 49 to 46 and a half. to let you know the books are getting really, really respected money heavily towards the under. But you're looking at the splits right now. It's still mostly towards the over. I mean, the tickets and the money, it's slated towards the over.

The public, obviously, like we talked about, they're going to be on this Bears team. Like no one, no one's going to be trusting the Giants ran out like what we talked about, right? That's why we kind of like the Giants team. This feels like a good spot for them playing against an inflated Bears team that got really lucky. They covered all those numbers for those people last week. and those people are coming back now, hitting the Bears again. So I'm like you. I wanted to be on the Giants.

We were shocked to hear the professionals. We're taking these heavy positions on the Bears. Now you dive into it and see what the weather could be like. This just feels like a great spot for the Bears team compared to a young rookie quarterback in Jackson Dart who already has fumbling issues now playing in bad element weather. I don't know. I just can't get there on the Giants if I know that's a scenario.

So yeah, just if you don't want to take a side here, I still think the underage value on it. I hate the bears in this spot. I know. It's such a giant's number. It's brutal. Such a giant's number. I'm going to wait.

I'm just waiting. I don't think it's going to get to five, but I'd rather just see the weather and know what I'm betting into on Sunday. I don't have to bet this one. So for me, I'm going to wait. New Orleans at Carolina. Carolina is a five-point favorite. It was five and a half.

move to five, still five at Hard Rock, five and a half in a lot of other places. I want to say play the number. But the truth is, like, this number, home or road division dogs of five plus points, it's basically a 50-50 proposition. So if you're looking at it from that point of view, there is no real edge in terms of historical precedent. Carolina at home is great. The Russian game is great.

They're really confident. The Saints are not. They might not have an NFL quarterback on their roster. Yeah, the number just spooks you. It speaks me too. I'll probably end up just taking a large position with Carolina on the money line and just avoid this game if I can.

Because it does feel like it's mispriced and this is a great spot for this Carolina team at home. Yeah. It's what we just said is just a non-existent, offensive quarterback. And could he show up here and have the game of his life? Yeah, we've seen that happen all the time, right? These guys pop for one game.

Well, just as a betty man, I love this number. And working against the Panthers just the history of them being a favorite, right? I think they're on a crazy streak, their 0 and 10 as a favorite. And that's a lot of Bryce Young, too. I think he has three or four games mixed in there. So, yeah, a game I'm not barely having into. It's just I found other games this week. I like a lot more, but still on Carolina side,

still taking the number of minus five. But I'm much more comfortable putting their money line in it. Wow, it's already, it's up to minus 245. So people have been hitting it. It was minus 2.10. Yeah, it's been getting hit this money line on the Panthers. You know a game that we are into, and I hate to say it. And maybe it's the sickos in us.

The Cleveland Browns are visiting the New York Jets. On Tuesday, when we started the show, the Jets, I think, think were two-point favorites. It had gone up from one and a half to two. During the show, the news broke that Sauce Gardner was being traded to the Indianapolis Colts for multiple picks. Later in the day, it was announced that the Jets were trading Quinn and Williams, their star defensive tackle, to the Dallas Cowboys for multiple picks. Yesterday, it was announced that Quincy Williams, the jet starting linebacker, Quinnin's brother, All-Pro in 2023, was being benched for lack of performance.

We still don't know who the quarterback is going to be for the New York Jets on Sunday. The New York Jets GM said that the Jets are still trying to win. He knows how much those guys try. We are still trying to win this season, quote maybe he and Aaron Glenn are not in the same page because Aaron Glenn said yesterday

I said we would make the fans proud I didn't say it would be this season that gives you a lot of confidence here's the problem here's the problem Simon you're ready

yeah the line has moved to Jets plus two at Hard Rock plus two and a half everywhere else. And the fundamentals of this game remained the same. It was never about the Jets' defense. It's about the Jets' offense

against the Brown's defense because we have zero expectations that Dylan Gabriel, whether he's playing Quinn and Williams or Saut Gardner, whoever else is going to be playing in those positions, is not an NFL quarterback.

So we were betting when we liked the Jets the other day against Dylan Gabriel, why wouldn't we still be betting against Dylan Gabriel? This is a massive move. Yeah, a game, though, I needed to be Justin Fields, honestly. I know it sounds stupid, but I like his matchup a lot against this defensive front in the Cleveland.

And shockingly, in his career, he does really well against these type of defensive fronts. When he plays a defensive front that's, you know, got a high sack rate above 4%. He's 4 and 2 against the spread in his career. which again doesn't sound great if you look at justin fields career it's probably the only positive a tess daddy has when you really dive in no he's just not a covering guy his whole career he's just had a rough go of it and um looking at this matchup it really is kind of weird that the public is so comfortable

hammering this brown side even with all the trades even before that we were talking on our show they were loving them then as a favorite uh i mean as an underdog now they're really still loving them as a as a favorite and this to me is going to come down tons of pros i know professional groups when i come on the jets i mean again i get what we're doing it but there i am also a little wary of bet in this one because we have to remember these are human beings how are they going to respond to what's just happened from their front office like their front office basically just wave the white flag on the season like they i agree with it too i mean some jeb fans are complaining it's like dude you guys that was like our dream scenario you don't

two guys that I don't want to say they're being overpaid, but just they're not going to help you get to where you need to be in the next two to three years. You need to totally tear it down. So, you know, Dallas, horrible trade, in my opinion, Colts, very questionable. But, you know, for the Jets, I love the move. You're stocking up in what should be really good drafts. Now, do you have the front office to make the right picks that's to be determined. So just for this game, Chad, I like it. It's really about the number, though.

This to me is going to come down. If you can still get the plus two, plus two and a half, you hear this, I will take position on the Jets. Once it gets below the two, I don't know how much I'm going to be investing here until I know exactly who the quarterback's going to be. And if that is, in fact, Justin Fields, we can re-enter this one on Sunday morning

and talk about putting in the contest. But you said here right now, I'm betting into the two and a half without even knowing who the quarterback is. Yeah, I am as well. The flip side of the team sort of being frustrated is, new guys get a chance to prove themselves in a wide open situation and put on tape for somebody for next season

how well they can play. I never buy the fact that guys are going to stop competing when you're a professional athlete getting paid. You want to stay in the league. This is your best chance to do it. There's going to be a guy who's getting a chance to start a quarterback who hasn't a chance to do that. I meant like, like, Bruce Hall.

Bruce Hall had a foot out the door was almost on the Kansas City Chiefs. He'd wake up today and he's still on the Jets. That's got to be weird mentally. Yeah. And I'm sure you'll get it back. He's a professional. I just think of all those scenarios like that,

the guys on this team. You know, you were so close to being on a winning team. Obviously, not everybody. I mean, some guys went to Dallas. That's a tough trade. But, you know, I just, I thought it was really interesting that they didn't move, Bruce Hall, because they apparently won a third

and then take a fourth. And it's like, what are you doing, Jets. Just sell it all, man. You're trying to lose here. And Bruce Hall, again, in someone that's back, the Jets here, I am so happy he's still on this team. They need them offensively. He's by far their best weapon. Well, look, the flip side is, Bruce Hall keeps showing how good he is, and next year he just gets a bigger deal from somebody. Yeah, so. You know? So, yeah, hate to say it, but we're kind of on the Jets. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news,

huge news? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special.

So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast,

people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy,

not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests. from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band

with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game.

This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines.

We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context,

and ask the questions everybody wants. answer. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slicelife-Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis. And I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs. And on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every up, every up, set and what it really takes to win on Clay.

Jen, she won. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lena Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now, and I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open.

Listen to the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Keer Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark.

Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person

while you hear on earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing,

growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast. Learn the hard way. Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the hard way and listen now. Jacksonville at Houston. Houston, look, on Tuesday, we talked about wanting to wait on this game until Houston was an underdog.

Houston is an underdog. It's one at hard rock bet, one and a half in a lot of other places. We're just betting on the defense. We're not betting on Davis Mills, who we would expect Davis Mills is going to be a little bit better because, I mean, obviously he has limitations. he's got a full week of practice. He's not coming in and then end at the beginning of the second quarter in a game plan that was built for somebody else entirely. So, uh, I like, I still like

Houston here a lot. I like him as an underdog a lot, Simon. Be patient. Hard Rock here in Jersey has already just moved to plus two. So really? Yeah. So there's going to be money coming on the Jaguars. The Jaguags have owned the Texans. Again, their last couple of meetings, they've just, even when CJ has been the quarterback, they've kind of owned them. It's a really weird matchup. Um, just division. When you talk about time, there's a couple of divisional games this week. You'll, I'll give out the trends. There's just trends that favor certain teams are in matchups.

So yeah, game I'm with you on. I really love the Texans here, but I'm trying to be patient, trying to avoid this if I can. Because it's like, I'm not going to force this one unless I'm getting a really good number. So it's two at Hard Rock right now, a couple books. Like we say, Hard Rock's a sharp book. A couple public books have already popped two and a half. So this could get to three by Sunday. Like I just see the public.

really coming on this Jaguars team as the week goes along here again it's Davis Mills like I get it like this should be a great spot for this this Jaguars team and um we love Houston defense they can only do so much like we say all the time so I'm like you I still like Houston I'm going to be patient here get a better number like I said this is moving up people you can get two and a half right now key number I'm going to grab that on Houston A lot of a lot of sort of be patient conversation right now. Because the numbers are moving against us. I just don't want us to take bad numbers here when we can get,

it looks like we're going to get some good numbers this weekend. Right. So if you can get, I would say if you can get Houston two and a half, get Houston two and a half. I don't know that it'll go to three. At some point there's going to be like an aggressive amount of buyback from professionals. I'm actually surprised it's getting as high as it is. knowing that most of the people I'm talking to like Houston as an underdog,

and we're just waiting for it to get to that number. So the fact that it's still going up, what is that saying to me right now? What do you mean? Some pro-proneys hit in this Jaguar side. I know. Well, that, you know. That's okay. It's a little bit nerve-wracking.

I like it when we're all aligned, when everyone's together. It's like a group sweat. It's a grouper. New England at Tampa Bay. There we go. Finally some good games. Tampa Bay is a two and a half point favorite. This was Chad's choice.

I got to tell you, I'm a bit disappointed that it hasn't moved even a half point to three. It's especially concerning because while the tickets are on the box, even more money is on the box. And so that tells me that there is some wise guy love for Tampa Bay, despite what we talked about in sharp calls. calls, and I kind of don't get it. Like, the Bucks have had extra rest, which means Baker is hopefully cured of some of the ills that ailed him. We don't know about Bucky Irving. We know that their offensive line could be improved.

We know there's going to be a lot of passing in this game. Fine. But I like the coaching matchup. I like the Bucks at home. I like the Bucks coming off rest. I like fading the Patriots when they're finally playing a competitive team on the road, a more challenging team. Give me the other side here, unless we're both aligned and the bucks are going to be the ones that we love.

Yeah, a little bit too. I'm just people be cautious here. It actually has hit three a couple times this week, and it's been fed away very quickly. So there is some very smart money that's resisting this at three. So it's letting you know that professionals are betting that this will be a close game. Where me and you are betting that this won't be honestly. Because we're taking two and a half here. We know the deal with Baker, right?

Like he wins close games usually by a field goal. At two and a half, again, like I'm like you. I can't believe we're getting away with this. It feels like a very, very nice number with a quarterback that tends to play close games under a field goal. So I get where the pros are coming from. I get their position on this New England team. They've been riding them. a lot this season. They've been paying them out. This is another true test spot for New England, right?

Like, this is a game where I think we're on alignment. Like, they should get rolled here. A lot of questions, though, about the health of this. Buck's team, like Chad said, we don't know yet if Buck Irvin's back. Chris Godwin still hasn't practiced yet this week. Those are two huge pieces, two all pros to that offense that they need in this game. So I'm hoping they come back. And when they get cleared, this number does move. Maybe that's what's holding up the line moving here. But yeah, just breaking this one down. Even, you know, not just going to give Will Campbell too hard at a time last week

because you're going against Miles Garrett or two weeks ago. And then he kind of got embarrassed last week against Atlanta. Like Atlanta's line got a ton of pressure against this doing on front. You expect the Buck's defense and the blitz scheme they run, you know, should get pressure against Drake May. We've seen him kind of that's the only thing I really struggles with when he can't do what he's so great at, which is getting outside the pocket and uses, running for 10 yards.

If you keep them contained, bottle them up, he'll struggle. And we know that's what Todd Bowles likes to do. I mean, I'm a huge Hertz guy. Every time Hurts' struggles against this Bull's defense, it's because he bottles over five in the front. So I'm with you, Chad. It's, we'll see Sunday. Maybe I can, I'll get more info,

maybe I can I talk this out of it. But as we say to it right now, I bet heavily into the books. I love the books. I think it's a great number. And I think this Patriot team is, just like last week, a little overvalued. I think they're our value here.

There's probably should be three and a half. It's two and a half. Come on. We can't avoid this one. It's too good. Tampa Bay Box. They're going to be in the final five. It's going to be hard to keep them out.

We'll see. I'm like, we'll see what I talked to this weekend because I'm like, if I have a really smart group being like, yeah, this is a patriot spot. You guys got to avoid this one. Okay. Maybe I can talk you out of it. But I'm so bad into it. So are you. I'm with you.

I just cannot. I can't see it not being one of our five. Simon, you and I are the really smart group. That's the ball game. You and I are the smart group. They should be worried about us. If they're betting the Patriots, they should be like, oh shit, Chad and Simon. There was Chad's choice this week, and Simon has bet into it.

Like, we got to rethink. That's how it should go here. But you know the issue. It's us, there's public, the pros, everybody, all of us are all in Tampa. I've only heard a couple really smart guys on England. And like you said, this number is hitting so much resistance at three. I'm just making sure we're not missing something here because it's interesting like you said,

this has not gone to three. I thought this would for sure be three by Thursday. Yeah, I'm actually a little shocked myself. All that alpha talk aside, I'm a little shocked myself. You know what I'm not shocked about? That we're talking about Arizona as a six and a half point underdog at Seattle and that we are going to make the Arizona Cardinals as six and a half point underdogs,

are brass balls. Better the week. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. We got what we wanted. Jacoby Brissette is starting. And in what has to be the balliest, I feel like we're doing this in honor of Jonathan Gannon.

Because Jonathan Gannon, in three different press conferences over the past few days has basically said they're benching Kyler Murray. At first, he said they were doing this because Jacoby Brousset was continuing to perform well, and there was also issues with Kyler Murray in the health bucket. And then he said, we're doing it because Jacoby Brousset is playing well and it's better for the offense to be able to plan with consistency over the course of the week.

They have since put Kyler Murray on IR to, quote, be able to focus on his rehab, which leads to the question, what has he been doing? He hasn't played in a month. Is he going to focus harder over the next four weeks? Like everything about this, and this was really telling, the Arizona Republic wrote, for the first time in seven years, Kyler Murray is not the starting quarterback of the Arizona Cardinal, The underlying meaning there is that Jacoby Brissette is the number one QB

and Kylo Murray has been benched. And you can read into it any way you want about him going on IR. That could just be, all right, we're going to take some of the pressure off of this conversation. But before he went on IR, the coach had basically said, Brissette is going to give us the best chance. We're going with Brissette. That's interesting to me. Now, the question becomes, are we stepping in it?

with the Cardinals because is it, does it become too public to go with a dog that just came off a big win with a quarterback we know has been streaking after winning on Monday night? Yeah, I have some good stats that go against that. And I will say the Collier stuff, I was taken back, but I can't believe they went this route, but it makes sense because what we talked about,

how much better the team has looked. So much better. With Berset running the offense and the fact that if you do put them in the spot, right, put them on the IR, maybe it does save a little face and saves a little bit of trade value for you for trying to get rid of them in the offseason

and I think anybody knows, even Arizona fans, they saw this week, Kyler was practicing. Like he was running around out there. He was good enough to take reps as if he was going to play last week. He's clearly not, didn't have some type of step back.

Unless we missed it, right? They know more than we do. It's the team inside the building. But yeah, this is pretty shocking, turn of event. I saw Kyler Murray, I believe he's 28 years old. still not too late brother go back to MLB you go get that movie see if you can make a career out of it because it's crazy he's one of the greatest athletes ever to come out of high school and just shows how football

it's so mental and he never to me ever got that aspect down was never right mentally all the town in the world i mean i always remember that play against the raiders uh i think it was a two-point conversion he ran around the backfield of about 20 seconds and i think it was like a total of like 80 yards he scrampered. Yeah, yeah. And put it right back in the end zone for the two-point or so. Brutle, brutal, brutal end to that saga. But for this game, let's just look at, okay, like Chad said, isn't this a bad spot?

It's a team that won outright on the road as a dog on Monday night. It's actually not terrible, statistically. And the next game is another dog. They're nine and seven straight up, 10 and six against the spread since 2000. It's not terrible. So, like, okay, we got a little something there. Now, this one really jumped out to me. Seahawks and this Cardinals, I talked about divisional matchups.

This is crazy, Chad, and very bizarre. Again, it doesn't matter because I guess these two quarterbacks weren't even all in these teams on all this one down. But since 2022, Seahawks 8-0 straight up, 7-1 against the spread against this Cardinals team. They've just owned them in this division, which, again, we say the time that does happen. But I was like, okay, let me find some good Cardinal stats, because that's the side we want to be on. It's a lot of Seahawks love here. Yeah, let's find some, some bias here. Let's find a way to make us feel comfortable. Yeah. Yeah. Well, just because it feels like this is a

great number for the Cardinals team because I, I think. Let's fit some, let's find some stats that fit our narrative and what we want to do. Every week they've been undervalued. So they lost the Tennessee as a seven and a half point favor with Kyler. The next week they were at the Colts. He was an eight and a half point dog. Would they lose by four or five points in that game? the following week, they are a seven point dollar to Green Bay at home. They lose that game by four points. And then we just saw it with Douse, there are three and a half points. So to me, the book keeps undervalian Burset.

That's why it's been hitting. So I was like, okay, what kind of numbers do we have here for teams making a trip out to Seattle in a short week, which again, I think that favors the type of quarterback percent is a veteran quarterback that just seems like he's totally in rhythm with this offense. This is pretty wild. Since 2021, teams in this exact spot heading, to Seattle in a short week. There's 7-1 straight up and against the spread.

So we've talked about the lost art of this Seattle home field advantage, right? Like, we all think back to the Legion of Doom, but these last couple years has not been so. And even this year, I've already gave up those stats. They lost to the 49ers and week went at home. Okay, we threw that one out. Their defense gave up 38 points or 35 points to Baker at home against Tampa. Like, it's just night and day.

Their road splits are insane how much dominant their deal. defenses and offenses on the road. So I just like this one on a sell point for the Seattle team. So me and Chad loves a plus six and a half people. I think this will keep moving as well. Like I said, the book, the publics, they keep undervaluing per set. So I can easily set in this, get up to seven. Just like last week we talked.

I like the cardinals there plus two and a half. I said if you're patient, this will get the three against Dallas. I got up the three and a half because again, people just do not believe in Burset. So looking at the splits right now, 80% of the money, 80% of the. bets right now are on Seattle. So I just, I think we'll get to the seven. We're giving it out right now,

it's six and a half of hard rock. I love this bet. I love this spot. And yeah, it's always a little scary. Ben against arguably the best team, hottest team in football ran out, which Seattle is,

but we're just playing the market, playing the number, and we think this team is overvalued right now. I would definitely say wait on the seven. I think it's going to get there. This one, unlike the other ones that we've talked about, this one feels like it's trending in that way. There doesn't seem to be.

much resistance from the bookmakers and maybe they know they'll get it when it gets to seven. So I'm holding off. I haven't bet it yet. I love it. If I'm not going to get the six and a half, if I'm not going to get the seven, I'll bet the six and half. But I'm definitely waiting on the seven. You're going to get it.

There's two sevens right now in Jersey. So there's going to be sevens are going to start popping eventually. All right. So let's get that seven. All right. Quick, quick word from our sponsor, Hard Rock Band. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. This is the golden time of year when it's not just pro football, NBA, college football, college hoops, and hockey.

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Honestly, it's four and a half almost everywhere else. I feel like the bookmakers are telling us screw off. Go ahead and bet the Niners. We dare you. What's interesting to me is I am seeing a much closer split on the betting percentages, meaning the number of tickets between each side than I am on the money, which is heavily in favor of the Rams. You know, you said in sharp calls,

wise guys have come in on the Rams. My question is, was that all at three and people are ignoring it at four? Do people like the Niners at four and a half? What's our opportunity here? Because I got an opinion, and it makes me scared. Yeah, I was a little hesitant here

because we talked, I took a position on the Rams minus three, and I said, once you got the three and a half, I wouldn't have been the 49ers, and I was completely wrong. I obviously missed it. Like you said,

it's been bed up now to four, four and a half. Kind of read it as more of a Mac Jones kind of thing, where maybe the line reflects that pretty will be out another week, and this is kind of settling into what a Mac Jones line is, which is four, four and a half, which seems fair to me.

And, you know, when you want to dive into this game, I think it's pretty simple. You just dive into that coaches, right? Because the quarterbacks keep changing. The pieces keep changing.

but when you really get to the basis of it, it's two of the best offensive minds and all football going to close each other. And it does make a difference where, you know, which one is the underdog? And that tends to be the one I usually take my position on. So just diving this matchup, I believe this is the 18th time.

These two guys have met up and matched in this type of game. Shanehan, obviously, he's done best in this matchup. He's 11 and 7 against the spread. His exact games. But what I thought was so interesting was diving into, what is McVebaden in as a favorite? because that to me isn't that terrible 11 and 7. I thought it was honestly more because it seems like Shannon owns them.

So as a favorite with Stafford, McVeigh, three and six against the spread and straight up against Shanahan. And that's including this year where they lost outright at home as an eight-point favorite against McVeigh on that Thursday night game. We talk all the time. Thursday are weird games, like stuff like that can just happen. But it's even more so worrying that this game is on the road now. And McVeigh on the road against Shanahan as a favorite.

He's one in three straight up and against the spread at this exact spot. So the numbers keep telling you, you don't want to go with McVe here. And then you dive into it even further when he's on the road straight up in his career against, you know, Shanahan. This is the last eight times they've played this exact game. He's one in seven, McVeigh. So he just struggled mightily against Shanahan on the road in these type of games. and you could say, well, that's kind of fluky because look at all the different quarterbacks

through all the years. And that's my whole point, though. It's the coach stay the same. The schemes stay the same. So I really liked this a lot for this 49ers team. And the only hesitation I have is a stat I gave out that I want to keep hammering home about this team. They cannot handle success.

They can't handle winning. I remember two weeks ago where I said you had to bet Houston against the 49ers. And one of those stupid stats I gave out, that still held true since Christmas of 2023. This is from our guy Evan, 49ers, 1 in 14 against the spread after a straight-up win. 1-14.

So it's like this insane pattern, even more so they're 0-3 straight up after a win when they're a dog in the next game. So they're 0-and-3 against spread in straight-up as a dog in this exact spot since Christmas. And this is just a weird thing where whatever it is, this team doesn't handle the wins

and they get overvalued by the books and they have a letdown. So that to me might be the reason these pros are coming on this Rams team. The trends point to it. It's like every time this four-in-er's team has a big win, especially on the road, they've come home, they've laid total eggs.

And that's happened a couple times already this season. So I really do like the Niners here. I'm probably talking myself all of it, but I'm not going to force it in. A four, I won't take it, but a four-and-a-half, I'm taking 49ers there. Once you cross that key number of four and a half, I have to take it, especially where all those trends show.

McVey's struggles on the road against Shanahan in this exact spot as a favorite. When people are under-bedding or not believing this Niners team, they tend to shine in these exact games. Listen to me. Listen to. Don't talk yourself out of it. The Niners are the right side here. Last 14 games in this rivalry.

The favorite? one and 13 against the spread. Wow. That's great. The Niners are the side. We knew it on Tuesday. It's, to me, the line is moving,

not because of the trend. It's moving because of the Niners' defense. They're just so banged up. And it's moving because of the Rams' rush defense, which has really become a lead. And if you're looking at this game schematically, the best opportunity that the Niners have is to get the ball into McAfee.

Jeffrey's hands 35 times as they've been doing. But Matt Jones has been showing up and he's doing exactly what Kyle Shanahan needs him to do. The number is way too big. It just, it shouldn't be four and a half points. And so that's the side. Simon, you and I, we have confidence. Niners. Niners are the side.

No fear. I don't care what anyone else is saying. Here's one that I do have some concerns. This one is at two and a half. It's the Green Bay Packers hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. It's actually, it was at two and a half. It's moved down a bit to two. You and I both talked about it on Sunday at two and a half.

You said you were hearing a lot of rumblings about the Eagles at two. I don't know if anyone's going to get to watch this game because it's a Monday night game and who knows where the YouTube TV ESPN standoff is going to end. But like shutdowns, could this be the moment when it's two massive fan bases that are, you know, bringing the cable giant and the streaming TV giant to its knees? man, tricky. I don't think you mention the Eagles and Sharp Calls, but I'm still going to go with the Packers.

I am too. I didn't mention it much because it is a little split, but I would say obviously most pros are on Green Bay, but when I dove back into why my model had this so off, like I said, I think I had it at Green Bay minus one, maybe we're undervaluing Tucker Craft. and what he means to this Green Bay team and how big of a loss that is for this offense.

But I can't get over how great of a spot this is for the Packers. So maybe I'll have a stronger opinion comes today morning. I can talk more about this. There's just other games I bet more into. I just don't know what to do with this one. It's another game where it might be in the 20s, might be a little snowy on Monday night. This could be affected by the weather.

And, you know, if there's no golden, the rookie receiver, and now there's no Tucker craft, it's got to be an issue, right? Like a passing attack needs its weapon, especially at a team like Green Bay with the, it's just an unnamed receiving court, right? It's a rotation of guys. Now you're taking away the number one tight end and the number two receiver. That's got to affect Jordan Love at some aspect. So, yeah, for me, I'm still bedding a Green Bay, especially at minus two.

But I don't feel as strongly as I did about it on Sunday night or let alone on Tuesday. I don't feel as strongly about it either. I think there's been a lot of movement this week that has made me feel better about games like the Niners. I'm still bought into the box. The Cardinals, the Jets are really interesting to me. I know we like the Broncos too. So I do think we're starting to find consensus on a bunch of games. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers.

And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, new? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. A pretty wide range of podcasts are out there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band.

Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.

But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game.

This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions,

the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slicelife 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis.

And I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs. And on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on clay. Jen Chinchin win. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay.

Listen, Lernerabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games.

And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tript Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch.

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Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free, our heart radio app, Search Learn the Hard Way and listen now. I don't know how you've missed Miami. On Tuesday, we talked about liking Miami and it being the side.

Yeah, we hated it. That's how you should know it's the right, that's the right bet for us and probably should be one of our five come Sunday. All right. Let me hit you some numbers. Talk me into it. Hold on. I'm going to try here.

Talk me into it. Give me the numbers. But then tell me your hypothesis for the game. How does it play out? I just love this running matchup. I think A-10 against his bill's defense favors this Miami team in a lot of ways. And it's also a unique spot with Tseua at home with a big number who always covers for us in this exact spot. Except against the Ravens Thursday night, like a week ago.

Yeah, that was different, though. That wasn't a midday in the sun type of game. That was a prime time late game. Like, we got burned by that one, no doubt. I'm trying not to let that affect us in this game here. I'll hit you with the numbers real quick. All right. Hit me with the numbers.

Josh Allen. Let's start with him. the goat. We all know how great he is, but on the road as more than a touchdown favorite, I think we could have both agreed. It feels like he's not that great. And when you dive in the numbers,

it proves out. He's two and six against the spread of his career on the road as a seven-and-a-point favorite or more. Okay, not the biggest deal. All right, well, let's dive in there some more. Dolphins got blown out last week, right? They were a dog of seven points or more. They lost by 20 points or more last week.

in this exact spot, those type of teams and a bounce back spot, 15 and 7 against the spread. So, like, we already knew it's going to be a by-low on this Dolphins team because they just got embarrassed and blown out. But every week is by-low. Every week is by-low on the Dolphins.

No, I mean, we bought high last week after they blew out Atlanta. That was, again, that was on us. We misread that one. Two of this week, he just got embarrassed. This is his back-to-back, So his second homestand game, which, you know, we always talk. We love Tua at home or indoors in controlled environments.

Tua at home in this exact spot. So his second straight home game in his career, he's 10 and two straight up, nine and three against the spread. Oh, but Chad, what's he like as an underdog in this exact spot? Oh, tell me, Simon. Three and no, straight up and against the spread in this exact spot, two at home in a back-to-back game as an underdog. So I kept diving into it, and it's like,

Is there more stats I can pull from the good chat to try to flip on this one? I got another one for you. At home, 26 and 11 straight up. And when they lose and they have the following game again at home, he is 3 and 0 straight up and against a spread covering those games by 15 points per game. That's an insane stat that he basically, if he gets embarrassed or loses at home, he's dominant in that second game at home. And we talk, we just, we've been profitable betting Tua at home in that hot sun, whatever it is,

all the new shoe and the nons, it's true. Like, teams get burned out. They wear out. And Tua always comes back and covers these big spreads in the second half at home. So I just wanted to bring that game up as a game. You're going to need to take a little closer look at. I'm betting into it. I don't feel great about slam the table about Tua and this Miami team.

But this is a great match for their offense. And I think defensively as great as Josh Allen is, and that offense is, Cook is, banged up. He's been on injury report this week and he's not been practicing. I think that'll be very interesting if their number one running back is Ray Davis. Even though Miami doesn't have a good front, that's a huge deal. Cook is like a top five, top 10 running back in football right now. So that's another reason I think this number has dropped a little bit. Like again, there's no public or professional love I've honestly found on this Miami team. It's just us buddy. And that makes me love it even more. Everyone's left them for dead in this exact spot. We got to be buying this Miami

Dolphins team. I know we need to get out of here. I'll be quick. on the next one Detroit the pros are all over this Washington this number has been bet down now the seven and a half I get it I'm missing something this might be a huge blind spot once again but I have to trust Campbell just like I did last week Campbell and golf on these these spots you talk about pressure we live in pressure that's what we freaking thrive you did it again you always find a way to win we're destined for this just stay the course I've been bed in it for so long we making money for for so long how what do we do here we're

trying to go against our instinct here. And I know it's the very public side. It's probably the most public side of the week. So maybe that's how we'll avoid it. It's so public. Maybe we can talk ourselves out of it. But golf and Campbell, after a straight up loss, 21 and 8 against the spread. Like it's just what they do, they are on a 12 game covering streak after losing the previous

game right now. So every time they've lost, they've come back and covered the following game for 12 straight times. So I just wanted to bring them up real quick. I know that I'm going to get a ton of shit from a lot of pros this upcoming week at the book I'm on this public side once again because again they're taking a victory lap on the Vikings

they were totally right. Terrily terrible read by me. I do worry they've got a lot of developing injuries in their offense, specifically in the offensive line that is impacting their ability to block and their rush game and I talked about this on Tuesday. I love Detroit last week too.

They were Chad's Choice as a big, big number against the Vikings because I had no faith in J.J. McCarthy and I had all the faith in the Detroit Lions' ability to run the ball against a Minnesota Vikings rush defense that hasn't been playing well this year. The problem is, and I noted this on Tuesday, what we saw on Sunday was a lack of success rate that allows them to get to a position on third down where they can execute. You could say that they will do better against the commanders in this spot because their defense is just terrible, but the line's also been having offensive line and some injuries on that offensive line.

So I think that has as much to do with sort of this line moving from, what was it, eight and a half to eight down to seven and a half as it does with fading the lines overall because of what happened last week. Yeah, the biggest thing holding back, Detroit this year, it's very simple when you dive in the numbers.

They're 25th and third down conversion rate and their 18th and first downs. Can't convert. They can't, but this is the definition about get right. They're playing a defense that in a resolution. zone efficiency. They're 27th in the league. They are giving up the third, they're 30th in yards

per play defensively. They are given up their 29th and given up the most passing yards in the league. And they're 23rd against the rush. So this is it for Detroit. They can't get right here. Like I said, maybe you're right. Maybe I'll swear I'm off for good. And as honest as I can. I don't know, I really don't even know how to respond to that. You know, I mean, I'm, I'm shocked by that. Steelers visiting their Chargers. The game was three and a half on Sunday. It's moved down to three.

We liked it a lot at three and a half. You said you're hearing stuff from the wise guys on the Chargers, which is surprising to me because Joe Alt is out, and it's a game in L.A. where the Steelers travel and it's going to feel like you're back at the old three rivers when you're playing. You do not get it, especially when it's the plus three. I just do not get this Chargers love.

So it's another game I'm trying to be careful on because it does feel way too easy. Like we're getting a dog here against a team that should not be favored against this defensive front. And, you know, one takeaway could be this defense played over 70 snaps against that Colts team last week. And that's not a pushover Colts team.

That's a big physical, really tough Colts team that could affect this Pittsburgh defense in what's already been a year of very up and down play, right? We joked about it. They need five turnovers per game to steal these type of games. So that's the way here. But the one that really jumped out to me, about a couple people sent me this stat about just Herbert

and how great he's been in these night games, which was pretty shocking just because it feels like before Harbaugh got there, they were just so terrible, the Chargers team. And they just did have no coaching. But he's actually on a five-game ETS streak winning night games. I think the only one I could pop in my head was that Chiefs game to start the year. I know that was a night game for a fact when they played down in Brazil. in his career, Herbert, 16 and 9 against the spread, covering by three and a half points per game.

And this is a night game's type of game. So there's a lot to like them here. As a favorite, he's 10 and 3 straight up in these type of games. I just wanted to bring it up just because we're so in love with the Steelers. I want to talk about the other side, why people might like the Chargers and Herbert to bounce back. But I'm with Chad. I just can't get over the fact that losing Joe Alt, this offensive front, him having no time. They can't set up a run game either because they can't run block either.

It's just, it just feels so negative for this Chargers team on the flip side. I just love Pittsburgh. So maybe, again, I can avoid it because I'm lying to myself saying, well, Pittsburgh's defense, 70 snaps, now short week on the road. That's a tough spot to put this defense is. But just, man, what am I grabbing here with this Chargers team other than Herbert? It just feels like a lost bet. Here's what I, if I had to predict how we're narrowing it down on Sunday,

I think we're talking about San Francisco. I think we're talking about Arizona. I think we're talking about Houston. I think we will have talked about Denver. I think the Jets will be in the conversation. I know Miami's going to be in the conversation because I already could lean that way and you're feeling heavily, you're feeling strongly about it.

So, and maybe Green Bay. We'll have to have a conversation. I don't think Detroit's going to make it. I don't know if the Steelers will make it either. Maybe that's a mistake, and we'll talk it out on Sunday. But those feel like the games to me. Again, Denver, which we both love tonight, Thursday night, the Jets, plus two and a half. The Cardinals plus six and a half, which is our brass balls.

The Niners plus four and a half. Miami plus nine and a half feel like the leading contender. Simon, give me your biggest bets. Pull up those pants. Be a man. Obviously, people know, love Denver tonight. I'm going to have a lot of money tied to them. Dolphins, but pretty big into bucks, but pretty big into.

And, you know, a lot of these games are weighing positions, like 49ers, probably going to put as a bigger bet. Same with the Cardinals, just waiting to get better numbers on those games. Last week, Underdog Parlay and Favorites Parlay, we are leaning into favorites so much more. We ended up having to do both sides of games, which we don't love doing. So Matt Mitchell's suggestion, I think your suggestion. We'll just do three. Let's do three for the underdog parlay.

Jets plus 110? I was just going to say Jets have to be in there. Texans? Yeah, I like that. Niners. I like that. All right. Underdog Money Line Parlay, Round Robin.

Jets, Houston. Niners. Favorites? Panthers. Panthers. Lions. Panthers, lions, ravens.

Ravens for sure. Bucks minus 140. We're all in on the bucks either way. Yeah, that's true. That's true. Bears are minus 210. Let's do the bears. Bears?

Let's do the bears. Yeah. I'd already forgotten about the bears. Survivor before we get out of here. Tough, tough week. I unfortunately already used the lines. God, I can't believe I'm doing it. Panthers.

Wow. I know. My God. I got to do it, though. It's that kind of, it's that year where you guys start getting into the ugly teams to win each week. So I'm going to go Panthers. All right, Sharp versus Square. We both lost last week.

Would you like to go first? You had the chargers last week. I had the Jags. Ooh. I guess I'll flip it. Last week I went with a minus nine and a half road favorite. Give me Miami plus nine and a half home dog. Wow.

Yeah. I love that. That makes me feel even more confident about putting in the contest, though. I will tell you that. That's scary. I'll go with San Francisco. There you go. What number are you taking?

Four and a half? Four and a half. And you're taking Miami plus nine and a half. Let's go. Right? Yeah. All right. All right.

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