The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL BETS Week 9: Vikings-Lions, Chiefs-Bills, Cardinals-Cowboys, Broncos-Texans, Colts-Steelers and more

Episode Date: October 30, 2025

Happy Halloween, gamblers! On a special spooktacular episode, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter deep dive into their best bets for NFL Week 9. They tell their gambling audience their favorite NFL matchups across the board, leading up to their final five against the spread bets for their weekly NFL pick 'em pool contest. We also have Simon's weekly Sharp Calls segment, where Simon recaps the phone calls he's received from fellow professional gamblers responding to our Tuesday show. NFL betting picks and predictions provided today include their best bets for Sunday Night Football, the Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Commanders. They also dive into the red hot Indianapolis Colts led by Daniel Jones facing Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers, a huge AFC matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as the Kansas City Chiefs play the Buffalo Bills, and Bo Nix and his Denver Broncos traveling to play C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. We get a long look at the Arizona Cardinals facing the Dallas Cowboys led by Dak Prescott, as well as a huge NFC battle with Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota Vikings taking on Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. And are the Jacksonville Jaguars walking into a trap set by the Las Vegas Raiders? Or will quarterback Trevor Lawrence navigate those choppy waters? Picks and predictions for NFL Week 9 also include our Brass Balls Bet of the Week, Round Robin parlays, over/under picks, survivor pool picks, Simon's biggest bets of the week, moneyline favorites and so much more. #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:06:40 - SHARP CALLS 0:10:03 - ATLANTA FALCONS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 0:14:49 - LA CHARGERS VS TENNESSEE TITANS 0:19:51 - MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS DETROIT LIONS 0:24:10 - CAROLINA PANTHERS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS 0:33:02 - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS 0:37:39 - DENVER BRONCOS VS HOUSTON TEXANS 0:43:35 - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 0:48:47 - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS BUFFALO BILLS 0:58:06 - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS 0:58:07 - ARIZONA CARDINALS VS DALLAS COWBOYS 1:08:47 - BIG BETS, PARLAYS, SURVIVOR, SHARP VS SQUARE  -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper, makes the wise guys. Pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined by my BFF. My companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm.

Chad, how we doing? Listen, this is like our official Halloween episode. And for those who don't know, Matt Mitchell is a fiend for Halloween and all themed episodes. So I would expect it to be very spooky today. Spookier than the lines themselves. Simon, I know you like to go out and celebrate Halloween. It's what all single dudes in their 30s love to do. Definitely back in the day, all about it.

You could just go out and enjoy the festivities. Now, I really do the old man move. I got a buddy who lives the town next to me. It's a one-owned 10thals out. A lot of people know it's called Haddonfield, and they really do it up. These really old Victorian homes, they do up for Halloween. Like, literally make them like haunted houses, and like a whole street gets blacked off. And it's a middle-aged,

shit show. It's a really good time. You basically just go there, walk from house to house, black out, maybe take some psychedelics, who knows, and it's a really good time. Again, because everyone's in a mask, you don't know if you're talking to a 50 year old or a 20 year old. It's a really funny time. So yeah, definitely going to be a fun night Friday. Yeah, I said to my wife this morning, so, you know, tomorrow's Halloween. How do we get the fuck out of here? And go somewhere so we can avoid it all. She goes, what do you mean? There's so many kids who are going to come by. We can't disappoint them.

I'm like, we don't even have kids at home. She goes, I know, but all the kids in their costume, they're so cute. We got to be here, at least for a little while. I lost that battle. Yeah, my favorite thing, which you can do if you want to have fun is I saw there's a guy every year he gives out potatoes. Oh, yeah, I saw this on TikTok. Yeah, what's that about?

Because kids come by and they're like, I still have my potato from last year. I saved it this whole year and now I have another one. I don't know. I think he's just being funny and the kids are into it. So I just made me think, you know, I don't give out candy. I just put a bucket out. Yeah, we'll put out the bucket and, you know, hopefully people are kind and they don't take all the candy at once.

That's what we hope for. This is our Thursday week nine episode. We're going to narrow down the options on our quest to find five picks that we both agree on. I don't know. I feel like we're far apart on a. bunch of games so it's going to be tricky to find those five in case you missed it matt mitchell as i mentioned our long-time producer has returned feedback is a gift if you have any comments about this show to send them all to matt mitchell another reminder subscribe to sharper

square on youtube apple pods spotify all right let's get into this thing every week we give out our picks on tuesday and every week your professional betting colleagues, Simon, have strong opinions about what we discuss on the show. And they'd like to share them with you. And then we share them with everybody else here on Thursdays in our favorite segment. It's time for Sharp calls. I have to answer this phone. Telephone ring.

Somebody said, baby, what you do with? Chad is. It's strange days. Just this year. Is it strange days? Does the wise guys agree with me on just about every single game? No, you're going to get slaughtered this week. But you might not.

That's the strange days because the public, they've been hit, they've been cashing on these weeks. You've been going back to last year. They have weeks like this where they're, it feels like they're stepping in it and they get away with it. And maybe it's the new age. But the favorites, like you've seen all the data chat, it's like the best run they've ever had to start of season right now.

And these last two weeks, it's been insane. What was 11 and 2, like you said last week, normally I would be hammering this dancing on your grave laughing at you because you were so Joe public but you might be right and I think a lot of the guys back up some of that um if you want to go through the plays that I disagree with them on a lot of pros like Atlanta I think that's a sharp side a lot of pros like Pittsburgh probably a sharp side again I'm just on the opposite side of it plenty of pros like the Vikings I don't get it feels like they're kind of just bent a number into I just don't trust JJ.

I don't get that either. Tons of pros I talk to like Tennessee on the other side of that one. The ones they agree with me on, shockingly, a lot of pros, love the Chiefs. I really thought that I was going to be pros on the Bills and the public would be on the Chiefs, but plenty of guys I know back in the Chiefs here.

There are bills betters, a lot of pros on the bills, but it's not all, I thought it was going to be, you know, Joe's versus pros, and it's split on that game. I mean, a game I love, Chad, just never, not going to get there. I guess I don't love it. I don't want to say I love it because it's Gino Smith, but the Raiders. Like that's tons of pros I know to hammer that at plus three and a half. I'm mad.

I didn't do anything with it because I just was like, can I just avoid this game? I don't want to have money on Gino Smith or Trevor Lawrence. It's down to minus two and a half now. I might, I might have to bet Trevor Lawrence. I don't want to though because that game stinks the high heavens. Tons of pros on Houston with us. You know, I don't know how much you like that game, but I another game I thought was going to be very, very public heavy on the Broncos. It's actually not like that, right?

It's been pretty split. Most bookmakers I've talked to, they don't desperately need Houston there. I thought that was going to be a big professional spot. But, you know, this week, it just seems like the pros I know, they're taking these home dogs, like the Giants. And I try to ask them why. And they're just playing the number. Like, they really be a logical reason. on it other than this is what they do long term and it's a winner and i told you i'm just scared

about it because this this has not been hitting like it used to these last couple years and we've talked about it the discremency between having a quarterback you can trust on fourth down on these short fields with these kickoff rules it just it's different and these favorites are just hitting differently so yeah we can dive into it but really really split up this week uh overall over the lot of the games but the most part most pros i know too they're just all over these home dogs and they just love the numbers they're getting on these home dogs. Yeah, I think that's a mistake. Let's get into it.

Atlanta at New England, you mentioned it. Like, the two players we were most concerned about not being available were Michael Pennix and Drake London. And I think that's part of why this number shot up. Don't forget on Sunday, this line was three and a half. Shot up to five and a half. Actually got up to six at some point on Wednesday. But there is news out of Atlanta.

Rahim Morris did say he was feeling really good about Michael Penix. It looks like Drake London also is on the road to playing. And if those two guys are playing, then it's a different conversation. And all of a sudden we're talking about a New England team that is, to me, highly overvalued because Drake May is just dropping bombs. And now all of a sudden everyone thinks he's sort of the second coming of Tom Brady and is racing up the charts in the MVP race. But Atlanta offensively is very well-rounded when it has all of its players available.

The Patriots have had a hard time stopping the run. Bejohn Robinson can be a dominant presence. You kind of need to take last week off the board as so. a massive anomaly burn the tape. Atlanta at five and a half, I totally get why the wise guys like that play. Explain to me your logic here. If,

if, by the way, the expectation holds true and Pennix and London are playing. Yeah, I think everything you said is true. That we've been saying it for weeks, though. This Patriots team's overvalued. Drake May, it's, I think one of their quarterback

has done what he's done in history. I think it was Drew Breeze or something like that. That's basically completing 75% of their passes through eight weeks and have over 2,000 yards. And, you know, the difference between obviously him and Drew Breeze is Drake May is a great athlete. He's got incredible legs that when it's not working for him throwing the ball, he uses that, gets first downs. And he's been a unicorn in that way for this Patriots team, right? Like he keeps them in drives that they really shouldn't be in because he uses his legs. and then all the 50-50 votes.

I just said he's completed 75% of his passes. These aren't checkdowns like Drew Breeze was in that 2018. This is guys throw it 30, 40 yards down field, and it's working. It's all hitting. So everything you're saying about the regression is so true. I just don't know if this is the spot to get in front of it because it is Pennix and it is outdoor.

Like, again, he's played two outdoor games this year. Pennix as a starter with guys healthy. Carolina 0 to 30 they didn't score a single point against Carolina okay not a big deal then they went to San Francisco

well it is a big deal I know but I'm saying like it's a fluke game right those things happen like you can't take much away from that's why I try to not hold too much against me that game he went to San Francisco looked anemic scored 10 points against a defense with no Nick Bosa

no pass rush and no Fred Warner in their first game like made the 49ers defense look like a juggernaut without two all-properies So, you know, 10 points on the road there. I just, I'm worried about penics. I just don't trust them yet. Rather, I'd be at home indoors as a favorite. I like them.

On the road as a dog, I don't know if I can get there, but everything's Shat saying is so true. This is an incredible spot for the Falcons trend-wise. Like there's a ton of trends. Patriots are based on this insane five-game ATS streak. You want to fade those type of teams, especially young teams that didn't make the playoffs the previous year. They tend to struggle with this exact spot.

So I get where you're doing it. I just, I haven't bet the Falcons. I just am scared off of it. I'm probably just going to end up with the Patriots and a money land around Robin, even though you're so right. Like it's a spot they should lose. But I think between the Vrabel playing this young quarterback on the road and the way Drake May has been playing, I don't know.

I just can't, I can't get there on this Falcons, even though you're right. It's an inflated number. Well, look, this is always a challenge. And I think we have a similar challenge with the Colts and the Steelers. when are you fading the team that is riding so high? When do you get off that roller coaster? Because you know it's going to start to go down again. It doesn't just keep going up.

Trying to time that is the hardest part of some of this. So we're putting a pin in Atlanta, New England. We'll end up talking about it on Sunday because we might have a hard time finding five, and this is going to be one where I think we're going to continue to see that. I have five. I love. You just don't like them, honestly. That's the point of the game. friend, we got to find five that we both love. Chargers minus eight and a half at Tennessee.

Interesting game. We talked about loving the chargers on Tuesday. That's when it was at nine and a half. Now it's moved even more. You mentioned off the top, sharp calls, the wise guys loving Tennessee. I don't know what anyone's seeing with Tennessee. Jeffrey Simmons did not practice on Wednesday. This team has a very hard time looking like a professional football team. I bet the Chargers at eight and a half. I'm having a hard time figuring out what the value is on the Titans other than their eight and a half home point dog, eight and a half point home dog because the Chargers, they should crush in this game if they play like the Chargers can play. Yeah. And A lot of it, I think it's just what we talk about every week,

like certain pros and certain groups, they're just playing the laws of averages. Like, Chad's talking about here, these teams can't keep winning forever. Titans can't keep losing forever, can they? I think they can. Like, you just talked about it. You're missing key guys here. I can't state that enough.

And, you know, it's a unique spot, too, with this Chargers team coming off kind of a mini-buy-write. I mean, it's bizarre world. Justin Herbert who couldn't stand being in front of the camera is now, it feels like at every sporting event with his super hot girlfriend. And it's like, I love it. Like finally, Herbert's being a QB1, what's been lacking with this guy forever, is just that embracing it.

Like, and the moxie of it now, I think to the season he's having, you know, people are loving Herbert, right? He's in the top, what, five? We talked about the MVP betting right now. He's just way up there. And it's the stats, right? The 2,000 yards. he's like a ton of passing yards and um when i really dove into this one i kind of really thought to

myself what i mean chad back in here with harball on the road like are there numbers should to back up us taking him as a big favorite here because i want to see why the pros are fading hardball here because to me this is like an auto play harball big favorite against the team that can't stop the run about their best run defender what is there to fear and even the numbers back it up Chad. Like, Harbaal, he's closed to favor 11 times with the Chargers. He's 7 and 4

against a spread in those games. If we're going just him as a road favorite, Harbaugh, since he's been with the Chargers, they're 10 and 2 against the spread as a road favorite against the spread. That's crazy. I can't get over that. Now, let's factor in extended

rest. That's a big deal for this Chargers team. They are a perfect 5-0, 5-0. against the spread in the spot with Harbaal going from West Coast to East Coast. Now we're adding in Tennessee is the worst team historically covering. I just, it's under 10. I can't avoid it.

We and Chad are on two huge chalk favorites, one in the lines, one of the chargers. I shockingly love them both. Yeah, I'm not, this is where, you know, the changes in the NFL the past few years have really wreaked havoc with how people look at these games and think about underdogs at home and big numbers. And if you're not adjusting, look, we could get bit on this game, right? Very possible. We're going to come out looking like fools in this game.

But you have to be throwing out a lot of the old theories because of the way people are going forward and forthdowns, because of the length at which they can kick a field goal, because of how bad some teams have been playing and the discrepancy and quarterback play has had a material difference on how these teams are covering the spreads the past couple years. And so it's just getting harder and harder

to cover a big number for some of these teams. Also because teams are going for it more, they're scoring more touchdowns. And that also makes it harder to cover a big number because you're coming back from further down so and just some some teams that like i'm trying to beating people's heads here some coaches they get their guys up for these type of road games like coming from west to east used to be an old cool fade spot for professional betters and with the cryotherapy the airplanes me it's whatever it is

it's just not that way anymore and even diving in just hardball not including him with just the charges him in the NFL's entire career come from east to west he's 15 and four as a favorite on the road against the spread and the spot. He's been doing it for years with different quarterbacks, different teams. He just seems like a guy that, like we talk about the time, coaching matters, getting their guys up, getting their guys ready for an early start. It doesn't affect his team. So, yeah, I am shocked so much professional money is coming in and moving this number down to eight and a half.

But like you said, we'll take that value. Well, you just mentioned the other game, Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit is a nine-point favorite hard rock, eight and a half at a lot of other places. I love it. This was Chad's choice. Why are people getting excited about J.J. McCarthy? Why are they trying to find the good in the two games that he played, which weren't very good? And getting excited about the number of eight and a half or nine for the Vikings, the Lions are a dominant team. They do not have close games. If they have close games, it's games that they lose. When they win, they win so.

freaking big. And this is a classic spot for them to win so big. And I pointed this out on Tuesday. It's not about the Brian Flores past rush and past defense. This Vikings rush defense just hasn't been good all year. Their bottom tent across the board and multiple advanced analytic stats. Like this is not a rush defense that is going to hold up against a dominant rush offense, which is really what the lions like to be. And we've seen that over multiple weeks. So I'm getting the Lions, Jared Gough, Dan Campbell, and a great rush offense against a bad rush defense at home with a quarterback who hasn't played in six weeks

who they may or may not have been keeping on the bench because they're kind of worried about how good he might be. What's the debate here? I don't want to hear, oh, well, it's the number. Guy, look at the teams. That's what I have to say. Yeah, honestly, though, it's, I think a lot of these pros love J-J-J-J. They got me to flip in the summer.

It must have been the summer heat, but I had zero view on JJ, didn't really have any kind of read on them. And all summer of these guys typed them up, said he was going to be the next second coming of Sam Donald, and he's been anything but, right? And this team this year, this Viking team is what I felt they were going to be last year with Sam Donald. I thought it was going to be a ton of dysfunction,

a nameless defense that just can't get after the quarterback. But last year, everything went their way, right? They got all these crazy turnover bounces. And this year, it's not hitting the same. And, you know, a couple trends that maybe pros are betting here with this Vikings team. The only one I could think of was, well, it's a Lions team, a huge win against the bucks and then a buy week, right? Usually a team with a big win like that on an extended home run homestead. So, you know, 10, 15 plus days in this exact spot.

This is, again, a lot of data. There's 79, 104, so 44% against the. spread in this spot. So you could say, well, this isn't a great spot for the lines. Same counter I have with that Chargers one. It's about the coaching. Like, I can't see Campbell letting the guys have a letdown here. And okay, let's dive in the numbers with Campbell, what he's been like with extended rest with this Lions team. They're 15 and 4 against the spread, covering by them with seven points per game in this exact spot. So I love it. Like I love the fact that Campbell gets his guys ready for these type of games, even when they're big favorites in this spot, like, because, you know,

it's been what, Chad, three years now, the Lions have been getting respect from the books, and they're still covering it in a 10% clip. They've been big favorites in a lot of these spots, and we've had to just bite the bullet and take it because we know it's a little bit of inflated line, but, you know, to me, it's under another, it's just like the charges under that key number of 10 and 11, I'm going to take it here. Like the new NFL, I don't think the bookmaker, some of these offensive, they have caught up to it. And could me and Chad get burned in the first half and the Lions go over three on fourth downs and we're down 10 to seven sure but we still have the belief that we can get 28 points in the second half for this lion's team against a Vikings team

like you said just can't stop the run so love this matchup for the Lions having a wavered hearing a lot of noise from a lot of pros on this Viking team but i think we're in agreement i think they're betting a number here but this is the wrong game they'd be playing that type of game yep agree totally agree we love the lines here. All right, well, we got two games that we both agree on. Two big favorites. Two big favorites. Jesus. What has happened to? It's going this year. What has happened to us? Carolina is a 13 and a half point underdog on the road at the Green Bay Packers. And our question on Tuesday was, would Bryce Young be starting? He is, I had to dig deep on this one. Here's something that was interesting to me.

Carolina allows the fifth fewest plays per game, which equals a top 10 success rate on early downs, meaning the teams they play don't get big gains early in a series. The Packers rate 23rd in plays per game. They're very explosive. So we know they're going to be able to score points, but they do it while not getting a lot of long drives. They don't have a lot of plays over the course of.

of a game. So you could argue with Bryce Young and a run defense that until this past week against the bills had been trending upward and the fact that they are very good in early down success rate, they might be able to limit the Packers' scoring opportunities, which makes it harder to cover a two touchdown spread. Am I stretching? Am I reaching? Am I reaching? am I just trying to find a way to feel comfortable betting on the Panthers, which I haven't done, by the way. I'm just sort of laying out a theory on a really big number for a team that had been trending upward, and I think that the Packers might be overvalued because of what's happened the past couple of weeks.

You're hilarious. I thought you bet this. I bet the Panthers, but it's not one of my bigger bets. I'm simply, I mean, sounds stupid. We are simply playing the number here. The Packers, I mean, Jordan left specifically, 0 and 4 against the spread as a favor of seven points or more. And we've seen it this season, especially, they just play the level of their competition, right? Like, if you get them against a good team and all eyes are on them and they're in a big spot, it seems like their offense rolls.

They put up a ton of points. They keep the foot on the gas. It seems like this year when they're playing against bad teams, they just don't press. They're not trying to blow teams out and rolls. So it's a huge number. I'll join you on it, especially the fact that, you know, the Panthers just got blown out and embarrassed their own right. This tends to be a nice spot where team once they bounce back.

And historically, teams in this spot are 61% against the spread, losing by 30 points or more at home now on the road. So trends like it, but, yeah, there's just other games I bet into. But I exactly, I know exactly where you're coming from. We have to play this one, but it's just tough for me to bet it confidently, just because this Panthers team can get rolled here. Run defense. If the Green Bay gets things rolling offensively,

like we saw it with them against Pittsburgh, horrible matchup. Then you factor in the fact that it seems like Parsons has kind of figured out that defense got more comfortable. Not a great matchup for Panthers either, that both their tackles cannot stop Parsons if he wants to get to Bryce. So we're really hard playing the number here

and trusting that the Packers just don't roll bad teams. Well, we don't have to put it in, but it is going to be a game where all of a sudden it's not brass balls. It might percolate as well, I'm saying Sunday morning if you're like this is one of my two or three I need in. I'm not going to fight you on because I'm going to bet it. But I'm like, I hope Jack can avoid this one. It's definitely not. It's definitely not. Like I already know the games where I'm most heavily invested and this is not going to be one of those games.

I can guarantee you. Because we both are so wishy-washy about it. We know it's the right play. We know it's 100% the right play. I'm going to watch it on Sunday. We're going to be like, are you freaking kidding me that we'd not play this game? Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor,

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In Indiana, if you were someone you know is a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers, and guess what?

We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a...

We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers.

This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defining the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. and finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game.

His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid.

He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends, stop by like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash will get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He run up the court, licking his fingers while he got the ball like, after you go through a training camp with that IZE, you figure it out real quick.

Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Why is everyone obsessed with romance right now? Like, everyone. Your co-worker who, quote unquote, doesn't read, is reading romance. Your mom, book talk, the entire internet. I'm Sanjana Basker.

I'm Tyler McCall. And this is Radio 831, a romance podcast. The books, the tropes, the adaptations, the drama, the discourse. And what all of it says about how we actually love, yearn, and obsess. We're going to Weathering Heights. Which, for the record, is not a romance novel. And yet it has haunted the romance genre for 200 years. We're getting into dark romance, age gaps, certain Russian hockey players.

And sentient objects. In love, which is a thing. That's the kind of conversation we're having every episode. Listen to the Radio 831 podcast on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. There are times when the mind becomes a difficult place to live. This is David Eagleman with the Inner Cosmos podcast. And for Mental Health Awareness Month, we're dedicating a series to understanding the mind when it struggles. I'm joined by doctors, researchers, and those with lived experience.

We'll talk with singer-songwriter Jewel about anxiety. I started living in my car, and then my car got stolen. I was shoplifting. I was having panic attacks. I was agoraphobic. And making it through hardship. To be present is a learned skill, and it's hard to be present. We'll talk with John Nelson about clinical depression and the brain implant that saved his life. What I learned is that procedure made me happy because I'm disease-free. And we'll talk with leading experts like Judd Brewer about anxiety,

and John Hirschfield about obsessive-compulsive disorder, and the science of how the brain can change. This is a month of deeply personal and honest conversations about what happens when the brain goes off course and what we can do about it. Listen to Inner Cosmos on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Indianapolis at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is a three-point underdog at home. You like the Colts.

I like the Steelers. So we're at a standstill here. The wise guys have come in on the Steelers as well from Sharp Calls. I think there's some schematic issues. I think there's on both sides. by the way. I think the Steelers defense has been terrible. I think they are primed to be completely cut up by Daniel Jones in the spot because they play a lot of single high safety, and that's a great way for Daniel Jones to find open receivers, which he's been doing. He's been excellent against

single high safety this year. But the Colts also have injuries at both cornerback positions. They are not very good covering tight ends, and the Steelers are running tight end sets, you know, double tight end sets 50% of the time. So, Last week, we liked Tomlin because he was a three and a half point dog at home, coming off a bad loss in which his defense did not play well. I love the false enthusiasm. I'm going to see if we can make one of you guys quit today. Historically, that still holds up, right? He's still the greatest coach in NFL history covering as a dog of three plus points.

Let the greatest of all time look at your work. Let's go, Matt. Like we talked about the pros, they're all over. Pittsburgh, especially at the plus three and a half. That's any guy I talked to. It's not Pittsburgh plus three. It's the three and a half. Yes.

It's a key number. If you said, anybody can look, all the trends. Love Tomlin and this exact spot. Like a blowout loss at home the week before. Now he's a home dog again against the team well above 500. This is usually a smash spot. I agree with you. But a lot of those Tomlin stats are old.

And I'm trying to adjust to that because it's the, It's a new age. And we've been betting that way. We have a winning record this year, even though it's a chalky year in history, because we've leaned into it, where it's like certain games, certain matchups.

I know exactly what you're saying and talking about. Like Daniel Jones, he's been due for a letdown game. Can, you know, Jonathan Taylor get muddied down in a sloppy field outdoors? Like, is there a path for this Pittsburgh team to win and pull off this subset, of course? Like, this gold's team,

that's what's so funny. Everyone putting them number one in their power, ratings it's like the stupidest exercise in all of NFL. I well yeah I mean we get to the next game I had a thought by the way but it's just like what are we doing here and like what world would the Colts be favored over the chiefs at a neutral field let alone even this Ravens team we have all these questions about if it's the playoffs and Lamar's going it's just none of it made sense like this Colt team has a ton of holes like you're saying and another team where they're on an amazing

ATS Street. Like we always say, they tend to have letdown games. No one, like we're talking about, no one goes 15 and 3 against the spread or 14 and 2, like to start the year against the spread. It just doesn't happen. So maybe I won't force us to take the Colts here.

I'm just dug in on this team where I love the way they're playing. The way the offense schemes, like all these teams are giving problems to this Pittsburgh team, they've not faced an offense like this Colts team. This is the best offense by far. They face. I mean, Green Bay, as good as they made them look, that's not like a juggerna offense. They had not been rolling. They had been inconsistent these last couple weeks. They got right in that second half against his bad Pittsburgh defense.

So I just, I'm trying to get there. I really am with you, Chad, because I think you're in the right here being on the Pittsburgh side. I just, I can't do it. I'm very public here with the, because again, no pros are on this cold steam. All the pros are on Pittsburgh, especially the three and a half. So very, very chalky played by me. But I just, I trust the scheme for this Colts team. And I don't trust Rogers being consistent still. Rogers, he can put together a good quarter or two for you,

but he hasn't put a complete four-quarter game, in my opinion, yet this season. So, yeah, I like where you're at. I get why you're at there. Maybe you can avoid this one for the contest. But, yeah, we're split. I'm on Colts minus three. You're probably going to be on Pittsburgh plus three and a half. Yep.

I think that's a completely accurate assessment. It's a fine line between, you know, drinking wine and squash and grapes. A game that we both like, Denver at Houston, Houston is a one and a half point favorite right now. Simon, this is going to be our brass balls bed of the week. Presented by hard rock bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. It's been sitting at minus one.

and a half all week. It's starting to trend towards two. Remember, everybody, Sunday night, we're doing early liens for week nine. We identified the Texans at plus one and a half as a game we were going to be playing. I know we both bet it at plus one and a half. We even said on Tuesday, we still liked it at Texans minus one and a half. Christian Kirk receiver for the Texans likely back. Nico Collins is potentially back. They're waiting on news that he could clear the concussion protocol, but he was limited in practice on Wednesday, so they are hopeful. And against a team that's missing Pat Certainne.

So that could be an even bigger advantage as to why we like the Texans than them getting back any players because the Broncos pressure depends on being able to bring extra players, at least extra player, because Pats Certain, can handle half of the field by himself. If he's not playing, that changes everything defensively for the Broncos. Sean Payton even admitted it. Like that is just a massive change for us that we're going to have to manage.

You can't just, you know, do the same scheme that they were doing. He said that in press comments earlier this week. So we're still on Houston minus one and a half. And as good as Denver has been, I think we're both in agreement. We've had major questions this year about Bowenicks and him being the quarterback in this league. After a year of teams having tape on them, you've seen teams have made adjustments.

And, you know, even, I want to give him credit because the hardest thing to do is go off script, right? After the script is done. And the second half, teams kind of know what you're going to do and they have adjusted to you. He's actually performed really well about next year. Like, he's really, like, that second half against the Eagles,

really impressive. Obviously, second half, or just, I should say, fourth quarter against the Giants, something we'd never seen before, two passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns. But I've talked about it a little bit coming in the year. I really like betting bow as a favorite like we did last week. And I really like to fade him as a dog.

Like he just, whatever it's been in his career, whenever the line's under three or less, he's five and six straight up. But as a dog, he's four and seven against the spread. So, you know, last year, what was he, eight and no, nine and no as a favorite. He only was, you only could really get him when he was a dog. And if you go back and look, it's because when he's playing really good teams, he struggles.

And when he faces really good defenses, he seems a struggle. So as much as we have to rely on CJ here, and it's a little worrisome, right, this can be the best pass for us that Texans have faced all year, no doubt about it. I think this is going to be a great match for this Texas defense. I think they're going to get away with that bunch here. And to me, that's secondary of this Denver team.

They can be passed on downfield. And you saw last week, when CJ gets going, his downfield throws, they look in rhythm. that's how they can beat you, right? And you really spread out. So another game where I was looking for reasons to maybe get off Houston because it feels like I've been riding them a little bit here and they've been cashing for me, but it's another great match for them.

And we'll talk about, we can talk maybe about the 49ers game, but basically this Houston team, their defense played like 30 snaps. Like their offense, I think they played 75 or 76 snaps against that 49ers defense. historically really good defense like defenses like then they're giving up like less than 20 points per game when they play a following game when they played less than 40 snaps it's been really beneficial for that defense right it's like a mini buy for them so i like the spot of uh this houston team being semi arrested because they had such an easy match up the previous weekend just the fact that Denver feels a little overvalued people are still feels like they're looking at their records right you're still looking at the Houston team that in the public eye is not that good but I mean, it was just, what, two weeks ago, they had one win, and I think it was four loss or five losses. So I think there's another spot for them to keep cruising. And yeah, really banking here on this defense, honestly, just like last week against 49ers, like, I think we're both in agree. We don't really trust Houston's offense, but this defense, you know, between Will Anderson and in the secondary, it's just a really, really great defense Houston has this year.

Yeah, that's what's interesting to me. And you're right, by the way, the Texans last week, had to be. 75 plays on offense and only 44 plays on defense. So, you know, a good 25% less than what a team would normally play if most teams get about 20, get about 60 snaps. So on defense. I feel like the defense is what's being forgotten in this conversation for the Texans. Everyone is always so focused on C.J. Stroud and his struggles and that he hasn't been playing as well and that he's missing throws. And the last week was a good game for CJ because they were consistent. They did have a lot of long drives. He was converting for the most part. But people

forget how good this defense is and it's better than the Broncos defense. And I don't know if that's being discussed as much. Like the Houston, Texas defense is on pace to set multiple NFL records over the course of the season for how well they're playing. So that's the reason why I like it. It's it's they're missing Certan on defense for the Broncos and the Texans defense is freaking awesome and I feel like it's being slept on. Love it. You know what you don't love, which I do. Jacksonville Jaguas minus two and a half minus 120 at Hard Rock. So most places it's minus three at the Las Vegas Raiders. You say this is square. You say it's a trap. I say it's obvious.

And this is even with Max Crosby expected to play. He did not practice on Wednesday. It made me limited on Friday back injury. He's the only weapon that would scare me as a, that should scare the Jaguars on offense. Because the real question here is about Gino. Brock Bowers will be back. Can Gino's be so much better with Brock Bowers that it will, allow the Raiders to be offensively competent

because I do think both teams are going to have to score a crap load of points in this game. Yeah, it's, again, a game two, three years ago, I would be fighting you on, taking a huge stand. I got no interest in doing that with this game here. Like, I will put my energy elsewhere, but I'm glad the professionals backed me up, like, clearly. Like, the money came in.

Oh, yeah, totally. Raiders 3.5 apparently was a gift. I'm kind of mad. I missed it, but I was like, I just was like, okay, maybe this will get up to 5 or 6. Like let this keep running. And it didn't. They hammered it. Like this now, minus 2.5. I could be talked into it, honestly. Even though I know for a million reasons this is the wrong bet, the wrong side.

You're betting Trevor Lawrence on the road as a favorite, and he's beloved by public money. I mean, just every bookmaker I talk to, all different books. It's all Jags money. Never any amount of it. And what Chad just said, it's for a good reason. Like if there's no Max Crosby, what is the fear? Trevor Lawrence,

who's giving him issues that day? The only thing you can hang on is this will be Gino Smith finds it and it's a shootout, right? 34 to 31 last team who has the ball wins it. So it's a crazy line. Like I just

can't get over the way the books are pricing it. I took some on the over just in case there is no max crosbie the total is 44 and a half like okay i'll bite on that um but you could talk me to probably come sunday i just my whole job here is trying to protect people and just get them the inside i hear and it's like i knew the pros would be on this i was trying to protect you and them even though i hate this i do not want to have to plant my flag and staying tall on the raiders and gino smith but i just every inch of my body just like you are with pittsburgh it feels like it's the wrong thing to do. But when I'm fading Pittsburgh, I'm fading them with the number one offense

and Daniel Jones and that juggernaut of a Colts offense, I can't feel confident in the same with Trevor Lawrence, who just never ending in the Mount lets us down. And going back, not that you have a horseshoe up your ass, Chad. I cannot believe we covered that Jags Chiefs game. Like now that we're three weeks out, like this Chiefs team has been absolutely incredible. And it's like, oh, that was a miracle. A miracle cover. So that's maybe my biggest issues. I just can't get over. This Jack's team still is not the type of team that deserves the amount of respect they're getting right now.

But like we said, this is really you betting about how bad this Raiders team is, how bad Gino's been. And you're getting a good number now, especially at minus two and a half at a hard rock. So again, I'm not going to be a hard time. I just was at the three because it was like, what are we doing here? We're just going to walk into all these traps. But maybe the lines move so much. We got the best of the number here in the pros. They got the best of the number of three and a half.

Schematically, I like the fact that the Raiders don't know how to cover, that their defensive backfield is just so bad and allowing the highest completion rate for quarterbacks in the NFL. And so it's also, to me, more than Trevor Lawrence, it's a bet on Liam Cohn. I like Liam Cohn. I think he's a good coach. And I think he'll do more over the byweek to scheme up a win

and make things good for Trevor Lawrence. Then I have faith in Pete Carroll and what he can do, with just a depleted talent. And I'll give the one trend. We all know the one trend, what's going to be. It's basically a team with a win percentage below 40% a game. After the game, they just lost by 30 plus points, 96, 68 and 4 against the spread. So 59% since 2003, this season, those teams in this exact spot, they're 4 and 1 against the spread.

So again, it's a Raiders spot. We know that. But my whole point to agree with Chad is that made the lines move so much at this point. It is a good jack sign. But that just, I knew there was going to be something for that because it's just like, man, why do I want to bet this Raiders team? There must be a reason, but I hate it. And I'm glad it's moved so much. I can maybe avoid it.

I don't know if Chad can avoid it now. He loves his jack side. Oh, no, I already bet the Jags a minus three. Oh, God. Well, get the two and a half. You at least got a good number now. I definitely bet the Jags and minus three. Kansas City, Kansas City minus two at Buffalo.

This was Simon says when it was one and a half. It's moved towards two at a lot of places. But when it hits two, it seems like some buyback has happened on the Buffalo Bills. No Isaiah Pacheco in this game for the Chiefs, but no Ed Oliver for the bills. Like in the scheme of things, I think that's a much worse situation for the bills than it is. for the Chiefs. I'm going to like backing my homes as a short favorite in just about any scenario. I like backing the unit offensively that I think is more complete against a depleted defense.

I know that the Chiefs are riding high. I know they've been covering. But I think there's a difference between a Colts riding high and covering and a Chiefs riding high and covering. And I know you're with me on this. I don't think we're buyers on the bill's defense. And that's the biggest problem to me. Yeah, not a buyer on the bill's defense. And I just, I'm not a buyer on Josh Allen right now.

Like I just, something seems off with them. I talked about it going into the draft process. The number one guy I trust for Y receiver evaluation is Steve Smith. He's, he does not pull punches. When he breaks down this Buffalo. receiving core like keon coleman he says he shouldn't even be in the league like this guy can't get separation doesn't run crisp routes doesn't help josh allen when josh on's in scramble mode which shakir you know he's been a great receiver for them because he gets he does that for them so

that's allowing 20 points or fewer so it's happened 28 times in his career he is 23 and 5 straight up against those teams 22 and 5 ats against those type of teams that's what makes him superman that's why he's MVP of the league last year. Josh, when he faces his dominant defense, it didn't matter. He's, there's no scheme to stop him.

Right now, it just feels like his receivers himself or beating himself. He just doesn't look comfortable. His throws aren't great. He doesn't make the right reads either. Like, he just locks into guys.

And when he's in scramble mode, doesn't feel like his receivers are helping him out either. So, you know, just going back to the data too, him being a home dog, super rare.

Like I, when I look through it, it's only happened about five times. And he's won every time. The only one loss was, two. Momes. So we, we know the deal here. Like you said, the resistance is at two. A bunch of books did hit two and a half. A ton of money came in, a ton of money came in on this bill's team. Shocked it held it too. I thought it would go back down to one and a half. So that's what I keep

telling people. It is split. The pros are split down the middle here. And like me, I've taken a large position on this chief team. I really like it. I know some guys out of their way. They've taken really large position on this bill, especially now they've gotten the two, two and a half. So I love these type of games, right? It's going to be one in the sports books, a lot of yelling, a lot of back and forth. I just think one team in this chiefs, like Chad said, Pacheco is a big injury. There's no doubt about it. But Pacheco still has not been right since coming back from his injuries the last two years.

And the flip side, I just think defensively, offensively, it all feels like it's clicking for this Chief's team. Just if they feel like a totally different team than what they were to the start of season, just because they've gotten so healthy. and these young defense, they're playing in rhythm with Spag's defensive calls. So I love it. It's a true test here for this Chief's defense. And on the flip side, Mahomes and this offense, they should have no problem against this Bill's defense.

Like this is a great matcher for them. So it really is, once again, we all know Cook, top five running back. He's a game changer. I think Spack takes him away and puts it all on Josh Allen. Because Josh Allen, like I said, he's just struggled this year. He's not been, I know they have him as like a top three guy in the MVP voting. That's super fraudulent to me. he's out a very easy schedule.

He's just not playing at the level I expect him to play out. So I love this. This is a true test for him. And shockingly, a game they kind of need to keep up with this Patriots team in their division. And the game, the Chiefs need to keep up with Denver in their own division. So I love it that both these teams are semi-desperate and all the history behind this matchup. So I am glad you're in sync with me on this Chief's team because this is the type of game where I could see why you'd be on the bill. So it feels good.

At least we're in sync in, we'll have the three games now that we like to put in. So there we go. We're making them stack. We're getting there. You make a really good point about the playoffs versus the regular season. This is a playoff game. Yeah. Right?

The Chiefs are five and three. The Bills are five and two. The bills are tied atop the AFC East with the Patriots. No, they're behind half a game. They're behind, right, they're behind half a game. The Chiefs are five and three. The Broncos are six and two. So this is a game that over the course of the season is going to have a huge,

impact on playoff seedings if the chiefs continue to play as well as they've been playing. Could be after this weekend if what happens, if what we expect to happen happens, the Broncos are going to be have three losses. So the chiefs need to keep pace. They can't go to five and four playing as well as they've been playing. And to me, it actually is about that defense. They've just been so in sync since that Jaguars game, it's almost like they were so embarrassed in that Jaguars game and the way Trevor Lawrence was able to get into the end zone off of a botched play um i think they've just been a different team so hopefully that continues to be the case this again i don't know i put on the defense like to me they're two of their worst

losses here the eagles and that jaggs game i think like they should and i think he does himself mohams puts on himself those two pick sixes yeah again red zone pick six is they're Even Mahomes is human enough that he can't bounce back from this type of scenario. So, yeah, it's, it is interesting. Like, they could, like you just said, their record could be totally different. If Mahomes didn't throw those two pick sixes in their, when he's about to score a touchdown. So like we said, it's, I feel like a chief team's still a little undervalued here. We're getting a good number on them.

Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, huge news? We created our own podcast called, hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a...

We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down?

Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing. a bit for the podcast for people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves,

I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense.

And when IT's friends stop by like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash will get that thing. That man, hell get to fly. He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick.

Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Why is everyone obsessed with romance right now? Like, everyone. Your coworker who, quote unquote, doesn't read, is reading romance.

Your mom, book talk, the entire internet. I'm Sondjana Basker. I'm Tyler McCall. And this is Radio 831, a romance podcast. The books, the tropes, the adaptations, the drama, the discourse. And what all of it says about how we actually love, yearn, and obsess. We're going to Weathering Heights. Which, for the record, is not a romance novel.

And yet it has. haunted the romance genre for 200 years. We're getting into dark romance, age gaps, certain Russian hockey players, and sentient objects, in love, which is a thing. That's the kind of conversation we're having every episode. Listen to the Radio 831 podcast on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. There are times when the mind becomes a difficult place to live. This is David Eagleman with the Inner Cosmos podcast, and for Mental Health Awareness Month,

we're dedicating a series to understanding the mind when it struggles. I'm joined by doctors, researchers, and those with lived experience. We'll talk with singer-songwriter Jewel about anxiety. I started living in my car, and then my car got stolen. I was shoplifting. I was having panic attacks. I was agoraphobic. And making it through hardship. To be present is a learned skill, and it's hard to be present.

We'll talk with John Nelson about clinical depression, and the brain implant that saved his life. What I learned is that procedure made me happy because I'm disease-free. And we'll talk with leading experts like Jud Brewer about anxiety and John Hirschfield about obsessive-compulsive disorder and the science of how the brain can change.

This is a month of deeply personal and honest conversations about what happens when the brain goes off course and what we can do about it. Listen to Inner Cosmos on the IHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. I put in these last two games, which happened to be the prime time games, because I think we disagree. Yamahama, it's fright night.

Seattle at Washington. Washington was at three and a half. It's down to three. You like commanders? I like the commanders at three and a half. I like at three, I'm sort of off it, but at three and a half, I liked the commanders. And that's where the money has taken it. Yeah. Arizona at Dallas. I like Dallas at two and a half. I think you like Arizona.

The Cowboys are pro football's glamour team. Dynamic, progressive, and spectacular. Again, I like Arizona, it's not, I'm not going to fight you on it. But if Sunday morning you want to put Dallas in it's minus two and a half, I'm there with you. want to hear some DAC stats, I got tax stats for days. If you want to share, fantastic. Well, quickly I'll do, I just thought this was interesting about, Sam Donald, like I feel like we do give him love in some of his flowers,

but I just thought it was interesting that going back, even at 2020, when he was before he became the same darn we know and love now, he's like incredible off by weeks. Like it's really wow, when you go back and look at his stats, he averages 27.5 points per game after biweeks. So I just thought that was unique because it's not just a fluke from like last year with the Vikings, it's all throughout his career, whatever that extent of prep is, he does really get really well.

And we know this commander's defense is atrocious. I mean, they are horrible. And that's why, like, I'm total understanding of why you're on. Washington, you like them? Because, like, same with Pittsburgh. All these games we're talking about here. You're playing a number in a situation where this is going to be a heavily public side in the Seahawks on the road in a prime time game.

Historically, it probably would be a good spot for the commanders. But you got a bum knee in Jane, Daniel. playing against a ferocious defense in Seattle that travels really well. And you're just taking away Terry McClure again. Like, I mean, you saw him in that Chiefs game. He was the only one doing anything. Like Debo, he already looks like it's week 17 on those legs. He's just not running like he was in those first two, three weeks.

So I just, I get what you're doing here. You're playing the number and it's the professional side. The pros are on this, like I said, the public. It's another, just like me with the Colts. is a very public side to me taking the Seahawks here. But once again, I'm backing what I think is a really consistent, good offense and rhythm. And those San Dornal stats can be a peace of mind. It doesn't seem like he has letdown because this is a letdown spot for Seattle.

Like we talk about traps spots. This is the definition of a trap spot. So that's, those are just some stats I want to give out. So, yeah, we're obviously on the opposite sides with that one. Let's go to the Cowboys game because I do have some great DAC stats. you're you're probably right here with your early read and i'm probably missing it i'm probably overvaluing the fact the cardinals all their games are so close this does seem like a type of game where dac could open it up and beat up on this team uh you know it's a prime time game right but

i mean you talked about it it's it really is you're betting on deck and nothing else when you bet this team so i'll give some great dack stats about him just in these night games he's 29 15 and his career in night games, 26 and 18, ATS in night games. That's 2 and 0 this season as well. People probably remember covered against the Eagles week one. And this is a guy that, you know, since 2021 in night games, he's 14 and 7 against the spread. And so like, Dak shows up in primetime games and plays well. We've seen that consistently.

And, you know, when they're playing these night games since 2020 at home, Dak as a favorite, he's a perfect 13-0, beating his opponents by almost 19 points per game in the spot. So like there's a lot of stats to love with Dak playing in these prime time night games. And maybe I am overrallying this Cardinals team, like I said, that they play all these close games. They are due to get blown out by somebody. Like the way they've been in all these games, how much longer can it go all for?

They're just, they're not that good of a team like we've talked about. And, you know, it's a number now that's under three. At three, I was okay. I could get there with Arizona. I'll take that. But now you're down to the key number of two and a half. Like I said, if you want to talk me into it, after I've seen all those stats about DAC

and these exact performances and these exact spots, it's like, all right, I won't fight it. I'll join Chad, I guess, but I don't feel good about it. Well, look, I think we're agreed on the Chargers minus eight and a half, the Lions minus eight and a half, the Chiefs minus two, and Houston minus one and a half. So, Jesus, how did we end up loving and agreeing on four favorites?

We're flipping all the dogs. Like the dogs you like, I don't, and the dogs I like, you don't. It's just a weird wonky week that way. So who else could be the fifth? Do you know what I mean? Yeah, I think we'll have a real, we'll fight about it Sunday morning

about getting that one lesson there because like there's always a team one or two that pop up over the weekend I end up loving more than I did today because I'm around different people and they're giving me different perspective and giving me different numbers to look at. I did, I mean, again, I hate it,

but like it's a pro spot. That giant spot's a very professional spot. Like I said, that 49ers team played, whatever you said it was, 66 snaps on defense. Now they're on. 75. Yeah, back-to-back road game against a quarterback that scrambles

and you have no pass rush. So it's like- Giants are so beat up. They have nobody. They're horrible. I don't want to bet it. I'm just saying, like that's what we're talking about though that's when you dive in the numbers and that's just

you're betting the number because it's a it is a spot it's a professional spot so um we'll see too bears if there's no flaco flacco's banged up yep it's still that's interesting minus two and a half i could get there on the bears and i could too i could too it's an interesting spot for them as well so there's there's some games i think we'll be able to pop on but like you said right now we're just you know and it happens every week we've been very good this year being kind of in sync finally a little bit split on the chalk and the dogs we like. And that's a lot of pros this week. It's that way.

It's just, um, the season is just thrown you for a loop. It's just not going the way it usually goes with these dogs. So I'm just trying to be careful. That's why I like that we're so chalk heavy. The chalk, it's been hitting for us.

Again, last week, our only two losses of dogs. So it's just, we're trying to adjust, but it's hard, man. It is hard to do after all these years of bedding dogs.

All right. So, uh, I'll recap sort of where we stand. at the end. But Simon's biggest bets. Pull up those pants and be a man. Chiefs definitely have invested. Houston, taking a pretty big position on them as well.

And shock only lines and chargers. Like, we're about to do the money line, Robin. I have a heavy amount of money invested in those two money lines together. Well, look, I'm glad to see it because those are the four games that I have pinpointed other than the Jags from the beginning. So, I mean, I guess I had the Jags. I did not pinpoint the Chargers until yesterday when it got to eight and a half.

Yeah, I would tell those four were giving out. Houston is my least confident one, just because I still have questions about CJ. Huh. I'm surprised because I actually feel almost more confident about that than I do the Chargers. I love those hardball stats got me fired up. He just, him and being 15 to 4 on East

coast trips on extended rest is like insane. All right. Let's talk about some of these, the money line favorite parlay. Why not Kansas City, Houston, lions, chargers, and one more. Rams, Packers? No, because they're big. Let's let's get the juice down a little bit. Let's throw in, I mean, you like, you like Jacksonville. Chad.

I love Jacksonville. It's minus 150. Great. Put it in. I don't hate that. Or we can throw in Dallas minus 145. I like that.

I think I like Dallas more than I like fuck, I hate them both kind of. Actually, I don't think about it. Those are two good options because, again, you're not with me on the Colts, which I think they're, yeah, they're minus 170. So the odds aren't as good either.

Let's go with Jacksonville. Okay. Moneyline, round robin, favorites. Kansas City, Houston, Chargers, Detroit, Jacksonville. The dogs. Steelers? Steelers. Put your Lena Falcons in there?

Yep, Falcons. I got to force them in. Just because there's not a lot of dogs I like this week, but Josh Allen plus 115. Commanders? That would be you. They're a plus 140, so that is good value. Promontime game, Jaden Daniels, off a blowout.

I know all the things you're saying, but it's also a great spot. Historically, it's just going to be a good spot. It is, but it's, again, it's a bum-knee quarterback out of rhythm without his number one receiver. It's not that great. We're just playing the number simply. Sometimes that's what you do. It is, but it's, that's what I'm trying to bring some logic to it

because I just can't take all these home dogs. It's just not like it used to be. They're not all going to be hitting like this. But what do we have four? We have three. Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Buffalo. Giants. Giants plus 125.

I'll do it. And then what do you think about since you plus 135? Yeah. Because I'm not going to bet until Sunday. Anyway, if flak goes out, we can switch it out and put in your commanders. I mean, you could also do Denver. Denver. Yeah, they are technically plus 110.

That's fair. All right, let's do Denver. All right, so the underdog Parlay, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Buffalo, Giants, Denver. The favorites, Parlay, Kansas City, Houston, Chargers, Detroit, Jacksonville. For Survivor, I can't believe I'm doing it, but I got to use it on taking charge.

Chargers. It's going to be hilarious if Tennessee Knox out of my Survivor polls this year. Survivor, I'm so out of it. All right. Sharp versus Square, Simon. Who are you going with?

Well, you won last week, didn't you? We both. No, I did. You at Pittsburgh. I had the New York Jets. Let's see. Brass balls. We chose Houston.

Chad's choice was Detroit. Simon says was Kansas City. You know what? Duval. Jacksonville, Jaguars. Thank God. Give me the chargers. I was hoping you wouldn't take the Chargers so I could.

Yeah, give me the Chargers. Look at us, a couple of squares. Not charper square, it's square versus square. Square versus square. All right. So the games, we're pretty locked in on for Sunday. Chargers minus eight and a half. Kansas City minus two.

the Texans minus one and a half and Detroit minus eight and a half. And we'll have a decision to make for the final five on Sunday. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube. Sunday morning, you're going to get to eavesdrop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon and we are definitely going to panic and make human decisions that we regret the rest of the day. We'll be back on Sharper Square YouTube, Sunday night, 7.30 p.m. Eastern to recap all that misery. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also, download some Spotify, Apple Paws, wherever you get your pods.

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