The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - Sharp NFL Playoffs Divisional Bets: Bills-Broncos, Niners-Seahawks, Texans-Patriots, Rams-Bears

Episode Date: January 16, 2026

The kickoff of the 2026 NFL Playoffs Divisional round is almost here, and betting expert Chad Millman is joined by professional sports gambler Simon Hunter! Before loyal Hoosier alum Chad Millman flies to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami for the College Football Playoff National Championship game, he joins pro gambler Simon Hunter to discuss all things betting in the Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs! Plus, we hear their reactions to the news that Pittsburgh Steelers head coach has stepped down after nearly 20 years in the Steel City. Then we hear Chad and Simon provide initial betting picks and predictions for the Divisional round games, covering both spreads and totals as their free SHARP OR SQUARE PRO FOOTBALL PICK 'EM CONTEST continues throughout the playoffs at https://sharporsquare.thevolume.com/ Today's betting coverage starts with two huge Saturday matchups, as Josh Allen and the wounded Buffalo Bills go to Mile High to face Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos. On Saturday night, gamblers experience an NFC West showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. Can Brock Purdy and coach Kyle Shanahan get the better of quarterback Sam Darnold? Sunday slate betting picks and predictions cover the up-and-down quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans, who head to Foxboro to take on Drake Maye and the New England Patriots. We also hear the latest betting analysis of Sunday night's game between likely NFL MVP Matt Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams, who travel to arctic Soldier Field for a showdown with quarterback Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears in the Windy City. And finally the duo welcomes on friend of the show Joshua "Duck" Nunn, a college football handicapper and co-host of the Big Bets On Campus podcast. Together they discuss the game from every betting angle, and provide the latest betting market information from Florida's only legal sportsbook, Hard Rock Bet. All their final and official betting picks, all in one fast-paced episode! #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:05:30 - REACTION TO MIKE TOMLIN STEPPING DOWN FROM PITTSBURGH STEELERS 0:10:42 - SHARP CALLS 0:14:30 - BUFFALO BILLS VS. DENVER BRONCOS 0:24:06 - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 0:35:15 - HOUSTON TEXANS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 0:39:15 - LOS ANGELES RAMS VS. CHICAGO BEARS 0:49:00 - UNDERDOG PARLAY AND BIGGEST BETS 0:56:30 - INDIANA HOOSIERS VS. MIAMI HURRICANES -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Why are we all so obsessed with romance? On the Radio 831 podcast, join us, Sanjana Basker and Tyler McCall, as we unpack all the trending tropes, fuzzy adaptations, book talk drama, and celebrity love stories with hot takes and sharp guests. Each episode digs into what these stories reveal about desire, fantasy, identity, and how we love now. Listen to the Radio 831 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Joey Dardano, and on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with thoughtful solutions.

Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to me. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest, people you know. Listen to help from Hippocrite Wednesdays on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as I am for every episode by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, professional better, my BFF. My BFF.

Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? We're stoked. We're ready. We're locked and loaded. We got, what do we got? We got 72 hours until 96 hours, until the Chicago Bears kick off.

We're four days away from the Indiana Hoosiers taking on the Miami Hurricanes. We got Arctic weather. in Chicago. As a fan, all I've done is watch the videos, the NFL films video they just put out about the Bears' comeback. There's this great, great, funny video on Twitter right now by this guy Mark Morgan, who does a looking back at the Bears comeback from 2074. It's freaking hilarious.

I recommend everyone go watch it. It's awesome. And then we get to do this show together. which is a privilege. It's our Thursday wildcard episode. We're going to narrow down the options. I request to find five picks we agree on for this week. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. After we're done covering the games today, we have a bonus for everybody. As you all know, I am heading to Hard Rock Stadium for Monday's College Football National Championship game between the Hoosiers and the Hurricanes. At the end of today's show, we're going to have two things. One, some really interesting,

feedback from Hard Rock Bet on betting markets for the game. You know, they're the only legal sports book in Florida. So it's interesting to see what they're getting on this market. We'll share some of that. We'll also bring on one of Matt Mitchell's favorite college football betting experts to give us some picks for the game at the end of the show. So stay tuned for some college football breakdown for the national championship game. All right, let's get into this thing.

Well, at first, I mean, a community dipped over. What? What? Tomlin. I mean, I know you're so obsessed with your own life, Chad, but the rest of us, no one gives a fuck about the Bears or Indiana Hoosiers. Tomlin.

By the way, you're wrong. We're both, I am right now rooting for both of America's teams. Both of them. Again, no cares about the Hoosiers or Indiana or the Bears. Let's talk, Tomlin. It's a fine line between, you know, drinking wine and squash and grapes. How did you skip over Tomlin, Chad? You're too excited.

You're too happy. I don't like it. You got me. looking up. What's what's the Rams money line with the hurricane money line right now? You got you got me making a hate bet. Oh no. They got to remember they can't believe they got over our guy Tomlin. They did. And they did it the smart way. What did we said about horrible? I cannot believe they let a horrible walk out of the door for no trade aspect. Tomlin at least they retained his rights. Maybe he goes to does TV for a year. Yeah.

Maybe he takes one meeting in that boardroom and he's like, my God, I cannot be with these suits. I need to get back to my guys and get back to NFL. So, I mean, the Tomlin stuff, I mean, you're obviously set with your head coach, but whether nine other vacancies right now, everyone's like, oh, my God, Tomlin's available. Man, it's never had a losing season. And again, we can go through the quarterback list, just a ton of trash and had a winning season every year. So I was honestly in shock, like my mouth hit the floor when they let him go. But I think we had heard a little bit of whispered throughout, right?

He was a little burned out with the team, the car. coach, like not the coaches, but just in general football, right? 19 years is a long time. So, yeah, I was just floored. I can't believe it right now. We lost Harbaugh and Tomlin. It was our bread and butter, chat, our favorite matchup every year. And just like that, it's over, buddy. Yeah, I blacked out. You were talking about Tomlin, but I was really just singing the Indiana fight song in my head the whole time. I'm kidding. Yeah, it's, we got a poor one out. You're killing it. You were killing it. A poor one out. A great career for Mike Tomlin. He has made us so much money. He has made Matt Mitchell so happy because of all the Tomlin drops,

he's been able to cut over the years. The guy has been a pillar of consistency. Hey man, I don't care how the other 31 are doing it. And you think about it since Ben Rothesberger retired, what he has done with the Kenny Pickett and the Mason Rudolph and obviously the Aaron Rogers and the duck Hodges. And I can't even think of all the mediocre to bad quarterbacks. And this guy has figured out a way every single year in every single game to put his team in a position to have that voodoo magic that Tomlin has and get the turnover, get the takeaway, muddy up the game, be patient.

Really just a clinic in coaching. I continue to not understand why owners, why, management would be anxious to get rid of coaches who have proven to be winners year after year after year. Same with Harbaugh. Look, we're seeing LaFleur has not been let go by the Packers that are working on getting him an extension. I think it's the right thing to do.

Like, you don't want to, like, just think there's, the grass is not always greener. There's been so many instances where it just doesn't work a second time. Like, you got a good coach. Keep the good fucking coach. You think the Titans wouldn't love to have Mike Vrable right now? how stupid and impetuous was that? Like, you got the guy. Hardball's already signing with the Giants.

Yeah. Even a week later. Like I just, again, the Ravens, they do have a good owner. I'm not going to crap on their owner. The guy's smart. I think that was the first time you spoke in like eight years. Seven years. And he was great.

And, you know, that to me, like I told you, I feel like an emotional decision. Apparently he did it via phone. Well, Harbaal was driving home. That's the story that came out. So, you know, the fact that this man has already signed to potentially be the Giants next head coach. Just again,

And people, we always talk about don't let emotions take control. And that's Pittsburgh. They look like the more level-headed organization right now compared to the Ravens might be. Look, the Ravens owner's press conference was great. The best line was someone asked him about Lamar Jackson having any power in the decision about who the next coach is going to be. Yeah. And he was like, I love my players.

I'll listen to my players. they don't have any power. I'm the one with the power. I make the decision. And it was just really... He said, I want to hear everyone's opinions, though. Yeah, of course. You put that caveat, but I'm with you.

It's very... He dotted the eye and he said, no, I got the power. That was like, by the way, that's the billionaire mindset and that's how every owner thinks. Like, they do not worry about the noise that is happening anywhere else. They own the team. Everyone else is working for it. them. That's it. That's the bottom line. Who's going to work for us this weekend, Simon? Who's going to

work for us? Who's going to turn our playoffs around? Who's going to make things go? Every week, we give it our picks. Every week, your fellow professional betterers call to give you some feedback. It's time to summarize those opinions. It's a special divisional round edition of Sharp Call. Yeah, off the top, the two big ones hearing from a lot of pros about with the 49ers, especially at 7.5 and this Patriots team of minus 3, which I'm not going to allow to him. I'm having a tough time getting on board. But hearing them break it down the reasoning for both of it is, again, the 49ers one just makes sense to me. It sounds sound sound.

The Patriots ones are just so interesting. It's just, you know, we've talked about these great defenses, how they are in the playoffs and how much tough it will be for Drake May. but even looking now at the live line, it is moving to one to three and a half. So clearly these pros are finally taking their position on it. But yeah, for the other two games, you know, really split. Again, we're going to dive into it more, obviously,

but there's no, you know, six-figure guy coming in on the bears or the Rams. And like, I just don't see groups taking that larger position at this point. We did talk about the total. I've heard some smart money come in pretty heavy on that total and take the under. On the flip side, that Denver Bill's game, I know a really smart respected group. They came in on the over. I think it was on Monday or Tuesday.

I think word came out that there's one. The bill is only can dress three receivers right now. I think they have three healthy receivers. And I haven't heard a whisper of anyone else touching that over. And if anything, it's come down. I've seen a couple 45 and a half numbers on that one. So that was the game I talked about the weather was good. I honestly wanted to be on the over.

I could have seen both offenses moving the ball. Like we always talk about Josh Allen. He might struggle in the first half, but in the second half, he just, he lights up these defenses. Yeah. So, yeah, I was upset. I thought it was going to be more pros all over Denver,

you know, the public all over the bills. It really was two or three really smart groups came in on Denver, with me, I guess, I should say, with the plus one and a halves. And, you know, we all grabbed it. Now it's flipped and it's like, okay, now all these other groups when they're coming in the bills at plus one and a half. Like, I know plenty of guys, we've been waiting to get the bills of plus one and a half.

So that's a number I just don't see flipping back to Denver. I just think if it did flip again, there would be so much resistance. They'd just go back to the bills. So really interesting for the books, right? They're going to need Denver here. And they're letting a hold as a favorite. So that's a really fun game. I'm excited to break down.

But yeah, the professionals, those two games, the Bears, Rams, very split. Bill's Broncos, they're very split. All right. Let's get into it. Reminder, we won't be doing our normal Sunday morning and evening. shows. We will do a Saturday morning preview show. We will do a Sunday evening review show, but that is coming after the divisional games. Yeah, you're going to be all right. It's going a late night for you in Miami, buddy. It's going to be a very late night. I don't even know what I'm

doing yet because I got to watch the Bears game. My wife is coming down. I'll be doing lots of coffee for Chad. Yeah, my buddy Matt and his wife are coming down. We're all going to have to figure out where we're watching the Bears game. And I'm going to have to figure out how to get from wherever we're watching the Bears game to my hotel to set up and do this postgame show. It's all going to be, it's going to be like broadcast news. We're just going to be racing to get on the year. It's going to be super exciting.

And by then, I don't know. Will I be happy? Will I be sad? Will I be turning the corner and moving on to Indiana? I don't know yet. I don't know. while I be thinking about Mike Tomlin? We just don't know.

Get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube, subscribe and like the video while you're at it. You can subscribe at Sharper Square on Apple Pods, Spotify, et cetera. All right, remember, contest lines this week for the contest, sides and totals for all the games. Saturday, January 17th, 4.30 p.m. Eastern, Buffalo is a one-point underdog at Denver, the total down to 46.5.

As you predicted, as you just mentioned in Sharp Calls. This was Simon Says. The game is flipped. Denver is now one point favorite. Definitely a wise guy move, even if it's just a few groups, because the majority of the bets are on the bills. So we know the public is coming in on the bills here. The under, to me, and you just alluded to it,

I leaned over on Tuesday and sort of over the last 48 hours, I flipped my script a little bit. Think about the bills run Dundee. defense, why would the Broncos do anything other than run the ball? And then think about what the Broncos can do against the pass, especially in man defense, which the bills are terrible at, and the bills being so good at running, why would they do anything other than run the ball? So by the stats and by the analytics and by the schemes, this should be an under. And as I say it, it means it'll go to 85 points. And it's on it's like we have to take at least one over, don't we?

the other games I feel way more confident about the unders here. And this one, though, I'll be patient. The pros are going to keep betting the under. Maybe we get lucky. We get another key number. It gets down to 44. That'd be amazing. So I'll be a little patient.

Like, I literally just checked the weather before he came on here. It's going to be in the 40s, high 30s, sunny. I mean, it's going to be perfect football weather a mile high. So looking at both these teams, yes, the defenses on both these teams. Their strength this year have been stops in the red zone. But we see all the time in the playoffs. right. It's just, it doesn't really go like you're used to in the regular season.

And I'll give out the one glaring stat, Chad. If you're someone that's, you want to keep fading me, I totally get it. If you want to be on the bills here, this is the one stat that literally scared the shit on me by our guy Evan Abrams. The line has flipped from a team being favored by one and a half to the other, to now being a dog,

five other times in the playoffs. The record of the team of flipped two. So it flipped from the Broncos being a favorite or being a dog to them being the favorite. The teams that become the favorite of like the Broncos, they're one and four. It's not historically a good spot. But it's not historically a good spot in the regular season either. I mean, we made some money this year betting against the team when the line flipped and either we wanted to get ahead of the move or we went with the team that became the underdog.

Yeah, and we also got lucky, I think, in our one contest, the week one, we had the Ravens plus one and a half and it flipped. That's right. And obviously it covered again. Ravens though, you could have bet that for four months a plus one and a half. So that's stuff on the butt. Yeah, the last time it happened,

January 19th, 2020, you probably remember it, Ravens bills. Same exact scenario. The bills were the favorite. It flipped. The Ravens became the favorite. They lost 27 to 25. Eagles Chiefs, Super Bowl,

obviously, I don't have to mention it again, Eagles did lose that game. And then I was shocked. It had been a while. The last time it happened was in 2015 Super Bowl, once again, New England Patriots Seahawks. I couldn't believe that. Oh, yeah, that's right. So the spread, it was New England, obviously, as a dog, it flipped them be a favorite, and they won, we all know, 28 to 24.

before that same thing super bowl seahawks Denver obviously people remember that one that line flipped Denver just got rolled what was that 43-48 something like that and then the last one 2012 Giants against the 49ers obviously the line flipped the Giants won that game beat on the road went to Cano Stick and won that game game 20 to 17 so you know we just we just we see the data here obviously it's it points out that it's not great to be on the flip side which is making me a little nervous maybe i can talk us out

of putting in our contest here um obviously i wish our contest let us put first halves in here it's like no brainer i want to get on denver first half once again i as much as i hurt that jags game it's it was a little bit of unluckiness there and uh i you know denver here we've talked about a Sean Payton on script that first 30 plays, we expect it to be scores, right? I mean, he's been game planning this 30 plays for two and a half weeks now. So I'm really excited to see what Trump Payne comes out with. But yeah, I was so confident, honestly, on that Stember line because it's like, all right, perfect.

It flipped despite every bookmaker I've talked to, it's all Bill's money, all the teasers. I mean, they can't get enough of seven and a half point teasers on this Bill's team. And as soon as I saw that staff from Evan, I goes, oh, my God. Am I a dead man walking? here taking this but we talk all the time that's it's a super small sample not going to try to react to it too much but i'm definitely going to drop my figure amount from this one this was going to be a bigger bet for me i'm being a little more patient here because like anyone else as soon as you see that josh down to three healthy receivers and it's you know two guys that

were off the streets not even a couple weeks ago like we get it he can overcome all these superman it's a man with a bad leg a bad foot a possible can come on a short week on the road a mile high. It's like... Don't forget he hurt his finger too. Yeah, it's all stacked against him. He's just, he's the goat, not the goat. I mean, he's great, but it's like,

if there's any other quarterback, me and Chad would be putting our second mortgage on our house and betting this Denver Bronco team, but Josh Allen scares us. So I don't know about you. I'm still, I'm still on my position, but I just see this number, just feel like that bears number. I can easily see this getting a two and a half, three by kickoff on this bill's side. I just can see I really do think a lot of professionals will come in on this Denver team as that we go longer just because all the underlying numbers like the the data really favors this Denver

team chatterer talked about their run game they're probably the second best greater offensive line right behind this bills team and you know we talked about the Denver's got a great deal on the bills do not so it could be a game where you know it's one in the trenches like most games but at the end of the day you know people when they bet this one it's going to be simply they're going to be bet on the quarterback They're going to take a position. Am I really about the bet on bone, Nick's the favorite over Josh Allen? I think that's it.

Alert here for Josh Allen. And excuse me, touchdown. How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness. There's no fear. No way. Man's to do something about this outrageous man became love. Josh Allen is like the night in Monte Python.

You know, they cut up his arm. They cut up his other arm. Just a scratch. Just a flesh wound. Just a flesh wound. It's bedded against Patrick Mahomes. That's why the total is so scary. Because we've seen with both of these teams,

Bonix had multiple double-digit comebacks in the fourth quarter this year. This team, the bills last week and the Jags lit it up in the second quarter in the second half, almost blew past the total of 51.5, 52, right? So, like, it's a tricky, tricky game. There's all the metrics in the world on the field. There's all the schemes in the world on the field. But we're looking at the players and you really got to ask yourself, are we betting against Josh Allen?

Are we betting on Bo Nix? Like, it's a tricky one. I have no desire right now strong enough feeling for this to be one of the contest plays. Again, that over, we could, on Saturday, we couldn't make. And Saturday. That's like to me, the total is the thing

that I'm most interested in. The side is less appealing to me. Both, by the way. Or 20, 21 points in the fourth quarter. Like that, that's what I mean.

A lot this season. So. Yeah. We see it. I mean, but I feel like we've been seeing that so much this year. So much like just,

we saw it. The Steelers, Houston game almost went over. The Bears Packers game went over because of that. Like how many times have we seen just these crazy points scored in the final quarter. Matt Mitchell's been very quiet about this game. Last week, couldn't shut up.

This week, not a peep. Yeah, and it's, I mean, what you just talked about, it's part of the game of the thing about these guys probably didn't sleep that great the night before, right? You're amped up for a game. Then you're all day, you're waiting for this game to kick off. Once again, you're amped up, fired up. You use a lot of that injury in the first half.

How do you not? When you've seen every game, I mean, the Jags, that Bill's game, Think about how hard those guys were flying around that first half. And by the second half, a lot of those guys didn't have their legs underneath them, right? That's part of it where it's like that goes so hard. You're so excited to be in the playoffs. So I think we're saying it's true.

Like we've seen it now in a couple games this year or these guys with the new kickoff rules and all that, it's definitely something to look into that. It's maybe that's the place for us, right? Just taking these under his first half and taking the over second half. It's a good idea. Meanwhile, the second game, 8 p.m.

San Francisco at Seattle. The number is moved from seven and a half to seven. The total is ticked down from 45 and a half to 45. This was Chad's choice. And I actually stood the total, the under. Everything we just said about the second halves and the fourth quarters being true. But I think that also plays into when we've gotten volatility with quarterbacks. We're talking about Josh Allen, Bo Nicks, Caleb Williams.

I think we have less of that in this game. And I think if we're trying to sort of understand the narrative for these games, Mike McDonald is not going to want to let Sam Darnold take this game away from his defense, right? He's been much more conservative. The game planning, the Kuwbiak game plan has been much more conservative with Sam Darnold since he had that little stretch of multiple turnover games. And they've really been letting their defense just take. control of any game Seattle's been in it. And it's been working for them. I think they're thinking play conservative. Don't give the Niners any short field with turnovers. And the Niners,

they've struggled to run the ball without Trent Williams. And he's playing on one leg. He's admitted it. They've struggled to run the ball without George Kittle. He's not going to be in the game. So the Seahawks know that. They're going to game plan to be conservative. I can't see why the under hasn't moved even more. Yeah, I can tell you there are some pros. I know that I had taken position on the over in this game in the sense that what you just talked about, right? The 49ers defense is so bad.

They're expecting Sam Darnal have a much better game than he did the previous one where, you know, 13 points. Like, again, they gave him a ton of praise because he won the game. Obviously, outplayed Brock Purdy, but that was not that impressive, right? They had, was it two Redizond turnovers where they went from a fourth down, then he had a horrible pick, but we've talked about, Sam Dornan has not been playing well. So that's why I'm with you on the under.

It's like, that's a lot of points we bet on Sam Dornow in a playoff game to put up, right? You're making that bet. You're banking on and at least get you three touchdowns, maybe even possibly four if you think they're going to win this game. So I'm with you. I honestly am shocked, too. This is not six and a half.

I really thought the pros would be like me and just hammer this 49ers side. I could not believe the seven and a half. I know they're injured and they're really banged up, but. It's so hard to be the divisional opponent three times. Like, well, this wouldn't be the third time. It would be the second time. But playing them three times.

It's like you know each other so well. It's always such close, tight games. And the last time you played, you got the worst possible game from the 49ers. Like everything in that game was just so not like them. Right? Even Brock Purdy, as fearless as he looked in all these other games, that was the only game.

He honestly looked timid and scared. That's the Yalk's game. Like he just did not look comfortable at all. He saw in the Eagles game, even stepped on the pocket. He looked so much more comfortable compared to that Seattle game. So, you know, I gave it all the stats, you know, he's owned, Brock Pretty's owned the Seattle team.

He's only lost one game in his career there. He's 6 and 1. You know, I gave out that Shanahan stat, which is really impressive to me. Wildcard round, division around, Shanahan, 7-0 straight up, 6-1 against the spread. When he's an underdog on the road in his career, he's 3-0 straight up, Shanahan. So he's been a guy in this position.

He's dominated. And again, I don't know if I'm his comment. confident in the money line. I wish I was in this Seattle of this Niners team. I probably will throw a little bit on it at some point. But right now, for me, my, my biggest position is obviously the seven, the seven and a half on this 49ers team. It just feels like way too many points. And yeah, I'm excited to see where the resistance would be because I know some pros who they want to be on Seattle. They want to be under the seven, obviously. So the books, will they just leave it at the seven? Because again, we talk at the time. The books are not, they're not here for

pushes. They lose on pushes, right? That's the worst case scenario. So, If this doesn't tick under six and a half, I'm not going to lie to you. I'll be a little nervous heading the game time. But the way it's like right now, I just think the pros will keep coming to the four-in-hers team. And most books I've seen, it is all four-niners money for the most part, right? That's been the early money here. So like we talk with the public, usually doesn't bet until Saturday, Sunday. So maybe I'll have more info come Saturday morning.

But yeah, for right now, I like both our business. I like the under. I'm with you on that. I just think it's going to be a really close, low-scoring game. And, you know, I wish I'd given an honestly the seven-hand. half as Simon says, but just as happy to give out the seven. I think that's still a great number of 49ers. Well, look, the seven and a half, I played it as well with you. But a big number like this, also it's harder to cover when the total is as low as it is. The bookmakers are kind of telling us

something here by setting the total where it is and having the number where it is and that it's moved in the direction of the nineers. You got it like 2417, right? That's sort of what, it could feel like maybe 24, 21, which is why it was so important to get the half point. But that's kind of how this game shapes up because you've got to believe that Kyle Shanahan will manufacture some points. Like we know he can do that. He's at his best when he's playing with the fewest number of pieces on the board and just scheming the fuck out of a game.

Like you said, they're wounded for sure. Oh, my God. He's wounded. Kaffrey's wounded. We said they have guys off the streets now playing Y-Receiver. And linebacker. I'm like you. I'm shocked the total is this high because I know it was week one.

The first time they played it was a 17-13 win by the 49ers. And the last time they played was a 13-3 game. Yeah. So I'm right there with you. Like that was the only reason I'm so hesitant to be hammering this under so much. It's like, you know, my model has it of 42 and a half. I mean, there's some books there were still 46. I know it's come down to 45 and a half, but.

I was just shocked they hung such a big number of this one. And looking right now, the different splits, it's basically every public book for the most part is on the under. Two sharp books, it's heavy money towards the over. So, yeah, maybe the professionals really do love the over here. And we're just underrating how good this Sealks offense can be. I just, I don't know how you can trust Sam Donald here. I agree.

I don't know what the professionals are thinking. Or maybe they don't know what we're thinking. Let's take a word from our sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet with Miami. It's making the national championship. You know Hard Rock Stadium will be rocking. And if you're going to the game, Hard Rock Bet is giving you a $10 bonus bet to get in on the action. If you're watching the game out in Miami, head to the Hard Rock Cafe Miami,

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If you win, just place a $5 bet. And if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but also an extra $150 in bonus. bonus bets, even if your team may be out of the playoffs, that doesn't mean you have to sit on the sidelines between same game parlays, live betting, I can't miss, welcome offer, and new promos dropping every day. Hard Rock Bet has you covered all postseason long. That's Hard Rock Bet. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. Payable and bonus bets and that a cash offer, offered by the Seminole Tribal Tribal Florida in Florida, offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. Must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona.

in Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-833. Play-wise. In Indiana, if you or some of you know as a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9. With it, gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what?

We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own. podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a...

We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band.

Before Jonas Brothers was... This is. how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas,

and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.

Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

or wherever you get your podcasts. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay. Jenchian won. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lena Rabakina Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now, and I actually can win on any surface because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this. Consider this.

your court-side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, so the first Sunday game is Houston at New England. Very interesting moves here. The line has ticked up from two and a half to three. Total has come down from 41 to 40 and a half. Nico Collins did not practice.

probably not going to play from the concussion. Christian Gonzalez, who had been in the protocol, did practice for the Patriots yesterday. This is a low total for a game with two good quarterbacks, and yet are brass balls bed of the week? Presented by a hard rock bet. We're going under 41.

You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. Yeah, we love it. And, you know, we, I've talked about I'm getting bullied here into New England, which, you know, I, I'm happy to do it because to me, just the Houston one felt so easy. It's like, of course, you just take Houston here, a team that, you know, has the better defense as, you know, an offense that as much as crap we give them, how consistent they've been, you know, down the stretcher, they've been much better than what the obviously started the year, right? They've kind of found their way and their identity as a season has gone along here, but the Nico Collins stuff, I'm with people. That's going to push me over, right? If you're losing a star player, Christian Gonzalez is already practicing.

So that's a huge, huge deal to me. The fact they're losing already a key piece of their offense, that's what they've struggled, right? They've struggled consistently moving the ball this season. And now you're losing Nico, CJ's favorite number one, just feels like a huge deal. And I do think this will go up to three and a half at almost every book, right? Come kicko, I can see New England getting up to that number again. So I love the under love New England. And, you know, this is a tough one to swallow.

And the stuff I'm trying to find is all the data about rushing quarterbacks against this Houston team isn't much, right? They've just been so dominant this year. Obviously, they lost those first three games. The other two games they lost, one was when we remember against Denver where CJ got knocked out. Denver came back in the fourth quarter. And the other one was on the road October 20th at Seattle. And, you know, I don't know if people remember that game, but, you know, 27 and 19, Sam Dornow played really well. And honestly, a lot of those legs getting out of the side of the pocket.

So I do think that's the type of stuff that, you know, Drake May, the coaching staff, like, they're going to look at that where it's like, okay, we know how Dominion Wanderson and all these edge rushers are. You can't beat him with speed, right? It's a lot different than going against a 41, 42-year-old Aaron Rogers who just stands in that pocket. We've seen Drake May consistently staying in the pocket and then move up. He steps up into it. And last week we saw where he knew the past game was not working for him, right? He was struggling that first half. He went back to his legs, which to me, that dictated that game.

That saved them in that game where he picked up some easy, cheap first downs and it kind of got them in a little bit of rhythm. Now, I'm not that impressive, right? They scored 16 points. But to me, that was a big deal, right? The kid threw a pick, had a bad fumble, never wavered, played really well in that. second half. I think he threw for every 250 yards. So I know. I can't believe I'm not going to shoes in defense, but I am seeing the way of

these other pros and why they like this Patriots team. And it's bizarre world. We might have a world where it's Bo Nix versus Drake May going to a Super Bowl. But we talk all the time, chat. That's why in the quarterback position, the biggest nerds in the world can say it's a team sport. End of the day, it's a team sport. It's a quarterback sport.

Like you get your quarterback in the draft. You can change your entire organization within a year or two. And this is this is crazy. I can't believe I'm back in the Patriots, but it's about the number. And I'm glad we're going in the under chat. It's to me another under that will keep coming down. I can see this easy being 39 a half by kickoff. Yeah, I'm much more comfortable with the under than I am with the side.

We'll see. Maybe I'll get you there Saturday morning. We'll see. We got time. We got time. We don't know where it's going to land. I get it. You're a little gunshot on the sides right now.

I get it. buddy. Oh my God, am I gunshot? I think it's a good read by the pros. And again, I'm saying I'm off on this one because I have a model of two and a half, but I'm going to go back and dive more into what it's like without Nico Collins. I'm sure it's going to move by another

half a point. So three feels right for this line. All right. Last game. Maybe the most important game in the history of football. The Chicago Bears hosting the Los Angeles Rams 6.30 p.m. Sunday night, January 18th. Bears are four.

underdogs right now at Hard Rock. The total is 49's come down from, you know, an opener of 52 way early in the week. Most of the week was it at 50, 50 and a half when we spoke on Tuesday at least. The weather is just wreaking havoc with this game. I highly recommend everybody go check out a story on ESPN.com today by John Kahn. And it's a really fun story about how players handle the cold. Some of the coolest things that's to out for me. Stafford, thanks to advice from Tom Brady, plays in these really cold weather games in a scuba suit. And Sean McVeigh wears a scuba suit. And they say it doesn't restrict their movement. At least Stafford says that. Brady says that. And it's a great way to sort of maintain,

you know, some kind of protection against the cold. The flip side is how many players talked about the pain that comes from having jammed, sprained fingers in the cold. It just feels like your finger is cracking when you are holding a football, trying to block someone. They say the pain is unlike anything. They felt, and Matthew Stafford is going into this game where it's supposed to feel like it's negative four with a badly sprained finger. Yeah, I gave you that stat. We're seeing history here.

That's the second time in NFL history, a team will be back-to-back games as a home underdog, which is what the Bears will be, right? And the other time it happened, I gave you that stat. It happened with the Eagles. 2017 to 2018, you know, they obviously won both those games as home dogs. And, you know, if I was a Bears fan, I'd be hyped up like Chadis gave you. You're getting exactly what you want.

You're getting an indoor team from California outdoors and the element with a quarterback that might have a banged up finger. So it's, I get why Chad's so excited. It's peak right now for Bears' fandom. What was the first time you guys have won the home game in the playoffs in like 30 years or since the Super Bowl run? I mean, it's been like five coaches since we won a playoff game. Right. And, you know, like everyone else, the public has the same exact data we have about the weather.

So everyone's just coming in, hammering this Bears team. Like I said, the professional. are split. For money-wise, I know more money has been on the Rams from pros, right? And I'm just to see where these groups do. Like, will the groups come in heavier on the Rams and we'll just go back up to four, four and a half on this ramp side? Because right now, it is all bears money for the most part. Like everywhere I've seen and, you know, bookmakers I've talked to, it's all bears of money. The total is split, right? I think pros have come in and done what we've done, which is take the first half on her,

but overall it's actually pretty split towards you over. I will give the one good stat I could find about Stafford. And again, like Chad said, this doesn't hold too much truth to it because this is something he's never played him before, right? This is just for under 40 degrees, because I've seen so many stats about how bad he is in cold weather. Simply not true.

In his career, he is 7-Eleven in games under 40 degrees because we all know he played in the NFC North for you know, 15 or whatever, it was 12 years, 10 years. Stafford, he is 4 and 1 against the Bears when it's below 40 degrees. Obviously, at Soldier Field. And when he's favorite, so he's my favorite eight times when it's below 40 degrees, he is 5 and 3, but out of seven of those games, he's had a QB rating of a plus 100.

So he doesn't struggle horribly. I mean, I just gave you the data there. I looked at it early in his career. He really did, which makes sense, right? He played a Georgia, was a dome quarterback in Detroit. He did struggle in Lambo. He did struggle. What was it?

We have two years when they played at Minnesota, played at the Minnesota College Stadium. Yeah. Which is crazy to think back to. And then obviously, Soldiers Field, he's actually done pretty well there when it's been cold. But this is a different beast. So, yeah, I'm betting the Rams. I can't believe it.

Like, I thought I'd be on the Bears at this point, but I can't get over the Mets. match for your guys' defense. They are just... That's the flip side, right? Offensively, you're going to need that finger to be a real issue because you don't have anyone that can cover Demati Adams, let alone Puka Nakuwa. You don't have a single cover. And your safeties, as great as they have been, they do not have this speed for Puka Nakua. So I see a lot of shelf against Puka,

and this will end up being a heavy, heavy run game for me with Williams and that running game with the Rams team. That's what I was going to say. Like, I don't know that Matthew Stafford's finger is going to be that much of an impact when you're a really good running team playing against a rush defense that is 28th in DVOA against the run. Yeah. 26th in success rate.

They lost their best linebacker in T.J. Edwards. The difference between when T.J. Edwards plays and when he doesn't play in terms of yards per carry is almost two yards per carry. giving up six yards per carry when T.J. Edwards doesn't play. So is your tackle out too? You know what? I didn't check that update. I forgot to check that. I know he hasn't practiced. I just anytime I see a guy get carded out, it's like there's no way. But we've seen miracles before, right? So you really never know. But look, we've seen seven miracles for the bears who have won seven games with less than two minutes. So that they were behind with less than two minutes left. So like,

it's a tricky one. It's really a tricky one. It's kind of why I'm still liking the first half under the best because I do expect, like, we've seen the Bears get off to slow starts and really ramp it up in the final quarter of the game. And we know the rounds are going to want to ease into this and why not run the ball a lot when the Bears defense is just atrocious at stopping the run. We've seen Blake Corum and Kyron Williams have fumble problems. And that is something the Bears are really good at. So who knows, that could have an impact. but I'm still leaning to the under in this game. I understand why people are pushing it back up. I like that it got to 49. The fact that you're in the Rams worries me a little bit. It shouldn't, though. Like, I know plenty of pros. I mean, again, the pros that are on the Bears,

their biggest reason is what they keep banging the table about is if Bryce Young and the playoffs can light up this defense, what does Caleb and Ben Johnson going to do? Well, look, their secondary, like, they were great at the start of the year, but it might have just been because they were playing bad quarterbacks. Yes. And they've been terrible in the latter half of the year. And that to me is like pause, where I wanted to be all over this under.

Like we just talked about the weather. Both teams to me, they're going to be a run script-heavy type of teams just because we've seen it. When it's cold like this, it's hard to grip the ball and catch it. That's how stupid picks and turnovers happen, right? When you're throwing these tight windows, it's popping out of guys' hands. And we already know Ben Johnson loves running ball. McVeigh is the same thing. Me and Chad, lose our minds because McVeigh chooses to run the ball so much,

especially when his team has a lead. So really, really fun game and a really tricky total and obviously side. But, yeah, I think I'm almost positive. I'm going to end up taking the Rams here in my pick contest. I'm going to take the under as well. And for betting right now, I'm with Chad. I've taken the Rams first half. I've taken the Rams first half under.

I think it was 24 and a half, if you can still get it. Well, it was 25 and a half when we talked about it on Tuesday. Yeah, it's juice now, minus 120. I think now to the under 24 and a half. So it's obviously the first. have come in, the public are coming to well and bet this under. So, yeah, it's, you know, we talk all the time. It's really fun where these games are so tight like this, where it's like,

it's great. Yeah, it's so painful picking either side. You can't, and you probably talk to, no one's really confident, especially in this game picking aside because of all the unknown factors, the biggest one being what Chad talked about, that finger with Stafford. Is it broken? Is it dislocated? Is it nothing, right?

We'll have better info. I promise you come Saturday morning. Simon, what's your biggest bet right now? I think you hinted at it, but give us the truth. Pull up those pants and be a man. The truth, that's always the truth, brother. Honestly, it was probably the San Francisco plus seven and a half. It's looking more and where I can't believe this.

New England Patriots, I can't believe it. It might end up being on my bigger bets. Jesus. Yeah, I just. That feels like you're getting bullied. A little bit, but I see what they're saying. I give you those stats. CJ is just a different quarterback on the road.

outdoors and we have all the numbers to back that up he is just continued to struggle and now you're taking away his number one receiver it's like my that just feels like too much to overcome for him but yeah it's i i know i can't believe it but yeah i i think come sunday i'll be one of my bigger bets and we'll see this right now this this under i keep betting it so even 24 and a half that's not scared me off once it dips down to 22 and a half or gets below 23 and a half then i'll fall down but right now it's still high enough that I'm happy to keep taking that first half on her. So I would say for right now, those three are my biggest bets.

Niners plus seven and a half, Patriots minus three under 24.5, first half, Rams and Bears. All right, Sharp versus Square. I think we both got killed last week. So do you want to go first? Yeah, I'll lean into it. I'll go Patriots minus three. All right. Then you know what I'll do?

Bears' first half under. Okay. Whenever you're going to take. Oh, just give me the 24 at least. It's up to Matt Mitchell. You can give you the 24 minus something. Well, Matt Mitchell is going to come on the air and call his Jagoff. So just give me the 24.

Hey, Jagoffs. You can have the 24. Enjoy. Oh, thank you, Matt Mitchell. Let's go, Matt. Thank you. Thank you. Now I've flipped the bills.

Now I'm back on the bills. Yeah, we all love the bills. Bill's Mafia. Go team. Josh Allen. Yay. All right. What's our favorite parlay here?

I feel like this is the last week we can probably do. some kind of parlay it. Stretching it. Yeah. It's a tough one. Yeah. Is Madmanchigan, Alaska? Because I would love to throw that Bears

Rams' first half into a parlay. Why don't we do it? I think we can do whatever we want. Well, if we're going to go dogs, I mean, how do we not go Saturday Dog Day? We go Bills and 49ers. If we want to go Bills and Bears, too, for the podcast.

I don't hate that either. Yeah. Let's do Niners and Bulls. Those are bears? Do you like the bills for Niners better for the underdog parlay? Niners and bills. Niners and bills. Okay.

Okay. And for the favorites, I mean, you know I love Patriots. Are we doing a Sunday chalk? Are we going Patriots again and going ramps? Just in case you do have the Bears lose. At least you have a parlay on it. Yeah. Paths and Rams. Let's do it. Let's do it.

Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys?

I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.

But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with

Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on clay. Jen Chinchin win. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay.

Listen, Lernerabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now and I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right. Everybody knows. Everybody knows if you listen to the show. that I am an IU alum, go IU, fight, fight, fight. I will be in the building Monday night when the Hoosiers take on the Miami Hurricanes in the college football national championship game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. The fabulous hard rock stadium in Miami Gardens.

You also know the best place to say one of the stadium, one of the hotels closest to the stadium, the awesome, the cool, the incomparable. seminal Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, Florida. The Guitar Hotel lives up to the hype. I know it. I've stayed there. I've played there. I've wanted to move in there and never leave.

I've eaten to my gluttonous content at that hotel. Good times, good food. And of course, full casino, full sports book, makes you want to skip all the nearby Florida beaches. Thanks to our friends at Hard Rock, I am going to the game this weekend. I'll be roaming around the casino in the sportsbook. If you're there, say hello when I'm not there.

I'm going to be using the top-rated hard rock bet app to hammer the Hoosiers. And you're going to hear why in a second. It is the only legal sportsbook app available in the state of Florida. They've got tons of betting markets already live. Because we know so many of you will be watching. and betting on this game. Here we go, special guest talking college football joining us right now. All right, we're joined by front of the show, college football betting expert, Joshua.

Duck Nunn, one of the co-hosts over at the Big Betts on Campus podcast. Welcome to the show. Duck, thanks for coming on. Here's what I need to know. I'm an Indiana alum. We've been talking about this for weeks. I'm wearing Indiana t-shirts every single day this week. This entire season has been a surreal experience.

Let's just say that the listeners on this show haven't watched college football or haven't listened to me Crowe about the Indiana Hoosiers at any point this year. Could you put what's happening here under Kurt Signetti into perspective for our audience? In my opinion, he is pulling all of the right levers here at Indie. Vienna, he's a high culture guy. He's a high team first attitude coach. There's no egos in the locker room. He had a quote in the media about getting the right people on the bus,

having the blueprint, having the vision, and then going out and making it happen. And I think Kurt Signetti has made good on all of that. He has removed any possible excuses in the current landscape of college football today for somebody rebuttling being able to do a quick turnaround. If you just look at where Indiana was at 730 days ago, I went and looked at it. They were three and nine in losing to Purdue. They were losing by four touchdowns at Maryland. It took quadruple overtime to beat Akron.

For anyone listening in here, go back and rewind that and listen to that and let that sink in. It took four overtimes to defeat Akron. And now they're undefeated, 15 and O in playing for the national championship. I will happily and proudly go on record and say that this is the greatest coaching job in the history of college athletics. What he's done at the University of Indiana, a program that is storied but didn't have a lot of success for many, many years. I mean, you can go back to the Mallory days before Indiana had really this level of success. And for them to be struggling when he took over so badly to now blowing the doors off of the traditional blue blood powerhouse programs, It is stunning.

It is an immaculate coaching job. Well, Doc, because I'm old, I was in Bloomington at IU for the Mallory days when we'd start off every season, 4 and O'O. And then Ohio State or Michigan would come to town. And we'd all be psyched. And by halftime, it'd be 45-0. And I'd be, me and my buddy Matt would be the only ones left in the stands. hanging on for dear life till the end of that game. So I remember the Mallory Day as well. And I always thought like those years, we were the best six, five, and one team in the country

every single year. What Kurt Signetti has done is so historic, I feel like he should already be in the college football Hall of Fame. This game, however, unusual situation, hurricanes playing for a title in their home stadium. We actually asked the SVP of the Hard Rock Bet sports book, Neil Walsh, because they're down in Florida. The only legal sports book in the state of Florida is hard rock bat. We asked them to clarify how they're baking that advantage,

home field advantage, into the spread. I'm curious to get your take on this after I read his response, which is obviously the Miami program knows the locker rooms, the field, the routine. They're not looking at this, says Neil, as a true home game. The crowd will be mixed.

Damn straight. I'll be there. Sharing for Indiana. The sideline isn't there. That was me about. by the way, not Neil. The sideline isn't there, is the environment is closer to a neutral site than a normal home date. Because of that, Neil says, we're assigning a smaller home field adjustment than usual. When compared to some of the larger on-campus venues across college football, Miami and Hard Rock would

not be considered one of the stronger home field advantages. And for a championship game, they estimate, we estimate, says Neil, the edge at about two points compared to three or four in a standard home game. that level up with your expectations? Yeah, I mean, I think it's a sharp take and I think it's an appropriate take. You look at Miami historically and they don't have a tremendous home field atmosphere. Their campus isn't, or excuse me, the stadium isn't on campus. Miami culturally in sports has a problem with people showing up on time and kind of getting the environment to where it needs to be anyway in a multitude of different sports. And this is not going to be akin to going into Ohio State Stadium or the Big House or Alabama or somewhere like that where it's

going to feel like a really hostile environment. And now you put the stage at the national championship setting and you're going to have a huge constituent of Indiana fans. I feel very strongly that this will not feel like a Miami home game. I'm going to say having been in Atlanta last week, knowing Indiana's alumni base is literally the largest in the world, more than 800,000 alumni, knowing this team, these fans are traveling, and knowing how thirsty they are and desperate they are and how much everyone is enjoying this run,

Hoosiers are going to show out in Miami. I would say, just like all games, I think zero effect will be done by the fans. It's all about the coaching, right? What you just talked about, Duck, it's a coaching difference here, In my opinion, that's where most pro-betters are talking about. Signetti seems like respected to betters. He's the best coach you could possibly have for this game.

And all the people will wait for, Doug, what is your favorite bets for this game? Everyone wants to know. I mean, I looked into this pretty extensively, and I ended up getting to the window and laying it with Indiana here. I looked at a couple of different metrics and a couple of different things that, you know, these are two top 15 teams, two very good college football teams.

And so you're trying to find out these minute different. which could decide the game. For me, there's a discipline discrepancy. Miami is the fifth most heavily penalized team in the entire country. Indiana has the 10th fewest penalties accepted against them and the sixth fewest penalty yards assessed against them. I look at Indiana's red zone defense. They had only surrendered six to red zone touchdowns all season before the Oregon game.

The margin was so wide. There was a little bit of garbage time in that Oregon game, which caused some red zone scoring for the touchdowns. ducks, but just 34% touchdown surrendered on the season for Indiana with their defense in the red zone. So with the field compressed, with throwing lanes and receiving windows so minuscule, I worry about Miami being able to produce in the red zone at a level that's going to be necessary to seriously threaten to win this game or stay within the number. And then lastly, a forgotten element of football is special teams, massive edge for Indiana. There are special

teams composite rankings are fifth nationally compared to 49th for Miami. Indiana's better in the trenches. They're such a better tackling team. They're better disciplined. I think in situations where they have to have it, their execution will rise above Miami's. And Miami has had times this season where they've gone through stretches where they've been undisciplined, which either thwarts their offensive drives or it continues

the drive against their defense for the opponent. And I think that in a game of this magnitude between two great teams with good athletes all over the field, that's what it's going to come down to. So I'm not afraid of the big number here. I laid the eight and a half with Indiana. Well, it's interesting. Simon, you said the other day, you were going to take the outline at 13.5. So I like you're in Duck, completely independently, going in the same direction.

We asked Hard Rock Bet for info from their trading team about where the action is coming in right now. And Hard Rock Bet sent us a ton of information. They're the only legal sports book in Florida. So it's a very good lens into the market. And from an against the spread perspective, no surprise, because it is the only legal sports book in Florida, 62% of the bets, 68% of the money on Miami plus eight and a half. About a third of that game handle was on the Hurricanes money line,

one and every four bets on the game. So by far it's their most popular bet. Again, not that surprising given that it's a legal. sports book in the state of Florida, although a lot of sharp betters in the state of Florida. As we've been saying all year, we've seen some sharp lines coming out of Hard Rock. So if Miami pulled off the upset, not great for Hot Rock, they're rooting for a big Indiana win. Best case scenario, Indiana by nine and the over. For those asking, Hard Rock has taken one bet that's by far the biggest bet, you know, a six-figure bet.

from a respected player on Indiana, but it was at minus six and a half, minus 130. A lot of interest from sharp betters on the Hoosiers in the early going on this game. Final question for you, Duck. Exotic wagers you'd recommend. Yeah, so there's a couple here, and I'll go through them real quickly. Charlie Becker, the receiver for Indiana, number 80, over two and a half receptions. He has been such a reliable third option in this offense with most of the attention.

being given to Omar Cooper and Elijah Surat. If you look at Becker, he had two catches in each of the two playoff games, but Indiana was wiping the floor with Alabama and Oregon. And over the last two games, they've run the ball 90 times as opposed to just 36 passing attempts. But if you look at when Indiana, the rare circumstances, when they were in kind of got to have it mode, Penn State game, Becker had seven receptions for 118 yards. The Ohio State game in the Big Ten championship, six catches for 100%. 26 yards. Only two in each of the playoff games, but I do think that this game will certainly be

closer than 35 points with a lot of garbage time in the second half. So I don't expect that here. And I think Indiana will have some situations where they will have to have it. And Becker is such an outlet and such a trusted outlet for Mendoza. So with his reception total at two and a half, I like over. I also think if you're kind of feeling a little bit frisky and you want to do something fun with the first quarter, I do like the first quarter under. and I do think that there's going to be a significant feeling out process from both of these opponents that are unfamiliar with each other. So I would not be surprised to see Indiana first drive punt, Miami first drive punt, and that rolls into a first quarter under. So you can kind of throw all three of those together in a parlay, get about four and a half to one.

So punt, punt, first quarter under, and then it's game on from there. So I kind of like that as well. Nice. I like that a lot. All right, Joshua Nunn, aka Duck on Twitter, at Step on a Duck. Catch them on the Big Betts on campus podcast. Thanks for all the intel, the info, the Hoosier Nation supports your choices. Let's go. It's going to be a fun game.

We'll be singing the Indiana song together, guys. Have a great day. Who, who, Hoosiers! Nothing gets people excited like winning. It's pretty simple. I win. Google me. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast.

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