The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 1 Bets - Picks, Predictions & Betting Strategies

Episode Date: September 11, 2026

Sunday kickoff for NFL Week 1 is looming, and betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to preview the games they're looking to bet across the entire slate. Together our duo gives their picks and predictions for Sunday and Monday, along with their best bet for tonight's showdown between quarterbacks Brock Purdy and NFL MVP Matthew Stafford as the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams square off in Australia. The action continues with their Brass Balls Trade of the Week in the Miami Dolphins game in Las Vegas to face the Raiders, as young Malik Willis looks to outmaneuver the veteran Kirk Cousins. We also hear a breakdown of the Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers game, with budding superstar Caleb Williams looking to cover the spread against Bryce Young. Also discussed today through a betting lens is a Sunday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants, as gunslinger Jaxson Dart looks to start a new season strong for new coach John Harbaugh. Plus, we hear about Patrick Mahomes as a small favorite on Monday Night Football, as the Kansas City Chiefs face Bo Nix and his division rival Denver Broncos. Then they ask whether Aaron Rodgers and new coach Mike McCarthy will win their first game reunited for the Pittsburgh Steelers as they host the Atlanta Falcons? And will former MVP Josh Allen and the favored Buffalo Bills win on the road against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans? We also get Simon's biggest bets of the week, their underdog moneyline parlay, Chad's Discord Grouper of the Week, and more! #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:10:45 - SHARP CALLS 0:14:35 - NEW YORK JETS VS. TENNESSEE TITANS 0:16:30 - TAMBA BAY BUCS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS 0:23:10 - CHICAGO BEARS VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS 0:26:40 - MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDRS 0:31:40 - CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0:42:25 - ATLANTA FALCONS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS 0:46:40 - BUFFALO BILLS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS 0:50:50 - GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS 0:58:12 - DALLAS COWBOYS VS. NEW YORK GIANTS 1:03:48 - UNDERDOG MONEYLINE PARLAY  1:05:50 - FAVORITES MONEYLINE PARLAY  1:07:00 - SIMON'S BIGGEST BETS  1:09:40 - SURVIVOR POOL PICK OF THE WEEK  Polymarket is for customers 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization. Subscribe to Sharp or Square for sports trading advice and predictions from experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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And we're the hosts of the Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists Podcast. The Improvised Character Comedy Podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He winks on Halloween. It's right up next to the microphone. I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other.

You never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to Artists on Artists on Artists every Thursday on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. So like by age 11 or so, at least 70. said have a phone. I'm Dr. Joy, and this is Therapy for Black Girls. We spend our surviving middle school run getting into what's happening inside your kids' brain, the group chats, and their friendships, and what you can do about it. Your child is not doing this on purpose.

That's the kind of perspective we've been pulling from the psychologists and psychiatrists who studied this for a living. Listen to Therapy for Black Girls on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Self-care September is your reminder to slow down, check in with yourself, get off your phone, and maybe ask, why am I like this? I'm Jemisbeg, host of the Psychology of Your 20s podcast, and this month we're helping you make sense of the person that you are becoming, from setting boundaries and navigating friendships to understanding anxiety, confidence, relationships, and attachment.

Sometimes our biggest decisions, without us even realizing it, aren't driven by what we truly want, but by what will prevent us from feeling lonely or being alone. Listen to the psychology of your 20s on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman.

I am joined as I am. every show by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? You know, last night during the game, during the Seahawks Patriots game, which we're going to talk about just for a minute, they kept talking about how late in the game the players are going to get so exhausted because the starters haven't played much during the preseason. And I felt like I was getting my legs during the game.

Like I'm up way past 9.30. Like in 9.30, it went to halftime. I went upstairs. I brushed my teeth. I prepared for bed. So when the game ended, I could go right to bed. But it was freaking glorious to have the game back. It had everything.

And Simon, Simon, within five plays, we were getting the full Drewlock experience. a player we had committed to ourselves, we would never, ever, ever bet on again. And that's who we got. Yeah, and he saved me and saved me a lot of money because I told you, I've been bedding the Seahawks, you know, for three months.

I gave out that stat, whatever it is, since 2001. Yeah, yeah. 33 and 7, now 34 and 7 at home in the first two weeks of the season, straight up. And it's like, you know, you don't ever make, make, bets and then when the quarterback goes down in the first series you're just always cooked i mean we've lived that so you know brutal in a three and a half it didn't get there i mean if you're a Patriots backer from last night you might have used up all your luck yeah in the first game of the year in week

one because you you should have not covered that game in a thousand different ways i mean the cold back touchdown uh i think they had second and one they had like a false start penalty dude that was second and six and then yeah kicked a field goal from there and it's like just all these little things where if it was Sam Darnold, they probably roll again by 10 or 15 points. And not going to be too hard on chat about his Drake May top five take today. Because it's the longest hanging fruit in the world. But it's the best part of making list and doing these things before the season where it's like, someone like me who knows ball can laugh at people and make fun of them.

And people are like, you're going to eat these words. I mean, the amount of Patriots fans I heard from in the first quarter, And for the rest of the game to play out the way it did where it's like, I literally told you guys on their show, cover six, the book is out on Drake May. We'll see if he worked on it in the offseason and if they could have figured it out. And I think he was 0 for three or 0 for five on pastas that traveled more than 15 yards in the air with three picks. So is it just a Seattle problem for Drake May and the Patriots? If I'm a Patriots fan, that's what you have to hope?

or is there really the book is out on Drake May? And that's the way to beat them, which is you'll let him dump it off as much as he wants. But as soon as he puts it downfield, that's when you turn him over. So if AGA Brown's out four to six weeks, brutal, brutal spot for a Patriots team that had. A lot of hope coming to the season and just the worst way you could possibly start the year where you're gifted a win on the road in Seattle. And he just totally blew that game. So, you could argue.

you could argue that the more impactful loss during the game was A.J. Brown than Sam Darnold because there were successful moments for Drake May in the first half when he looked like he was Drake May, top five quarterback in the NFL. It's because there were opportunities either directly to A.J. Brown, that pass interference early in the game that led to the touchdown. There was another slant where he was open and made a good catch. that led to a first down, there were opportunities there. When he went out, it seemed like the entire offense changed. Whereas with the Seahawks, their defense got better and better as the game went on.

And Drew Locke made just enough falling back psychotic plays to keep us in the game, where every time he threw it, but to me, A.J. Brown going out ended up being a bigger deal than Sam Donald. So you think A.J. Brown's a bigger deal? and Sam Darnold getting hurt. I said in the game. I said it was more impactful. I'm going to disagree that I think Sam Darnold put up 49 points or 40 points against his Patriots defense and what do you put up 13 points? Guy, every time I try to make a comment, you try to make it a case about misinterpreting what I said.

In this game. That's what I'm saying. Of course it does. Drake May was doing really well in the first half when he had. No, he wasn't. That's what you say doesn't make sense. He didn't pass the little 15 yards. It does.

It doesn't have a complete. 15 yards. Simon, he had AJ Brown in the other side of the field. He was a different player without AJ Brown. That was a different offense without AJ Brown. They had 10 points in the first half. What did AJ Brown do that made you think this was so, he was so incredible in the first half? Dude, he barely, he didn't even play the whole first half. I know, but you're acting like he was his world beater. I don't know where this is coming from. I'm not saying he was a world baiter. I'm just saying the difference in the game to me was as much about AJ Brown not playing for. Drake May as anything else.

I'm not saying Drake may play well. Very sensitive about Drake, man. I get it. I'd be a little embarrassed to do this morning. God. I'm top five. Sam Donald is probably more important than AJ Brown. You're being an asshole and you're purposely trying to misinterpret what I'm saying to win points.

That's not the point that I'm making. I don't get what you're saying. It doesn't make sense. It's not the point that I'm making. I'm saying in this game, at the end of the game, Drew Locke played well. Drake May did not. Drew Locke had an incredible defense.

Drake May lost his best receiver. And in the early part of the game, you could clearly see that AJ Brown was having an impact. Whether or not he was catching any balls or not, you could see he was having an impact. As soon as he went out, everything changed for the Patriots. And he went out in the first half after they were up 10-0.

That's my point. Okay. By the way, they're the only team in the last 30 years to throw three picks, take three sacks, commit three penalties, score zero points in any single quarter of any single game. I don't give a fuck about Drake May. I don't even like the Patriots. You sound very level-headed right now, Chad. Keep it up. You're on a good start.

Because you're fucking annoying me. This is our Thursday NFL week one show. you're going to hear sharp calls. You're going to hear brass balls. Our underdog and favorites, parleyes, Simon's biggest bets, Sharp versus Square, our Discord grouper of the week winner.

This is the episode where we will start to narrow down our final five official picks. Every week we discuss our picks on Tuesdays by Thursday. Simon has gotten an earful from his fellow professionals about what they like, what they hate.

Why didn't Simon agree with me? How will they bully him? It's time for sharp calls. Who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you do it? Yeah, a lot of calls just about, I'll start with the games that we didn't love that people think we're missing here. Let's start at the very bottom.

Let's start Monday night. People can't believe we're not on the Chiefs. That feels like such a Chiefs spot. Yeah, it just seems like pros versus public, right? The pros are going to be all over the Chiefs. Public are going to be taking the plus three or the plus two and a half with Denver. So that's a game. We might have a circle back to that.

Maybe we've overlooked a little bit. I think we're both just a little screamer, which is a little scared off about backing Mahomes in his first game. Denver getting, Denver is a huge public team this week. So much public money on Denver. Same for this next game. Giants, it's, you know, we've thought coming to the year, the pros have loved the Giants coming in,

and this is the exact moment you're supposed to back the Giants, right? They're fully healthy. On the flip side, Dallas has not, have a bunch of injuries to their offensive line, have a brand new defense with a brand new defensive coordinator on the road in their first start. And we talked about it. Like Dallas led to league in Plentenolese last year.

We don't know if they're a well-coached team. All we know is they're a great offense. So if we're going to take a stand here with the pros, that's another game. we might have to look more into in the Giants, especially the fact you can get plus three now in a divisional game at home. That's very tempting. But those two jumped out to me because I feel like we really didn't care about them. And that was the most phone calls I got about those two games.

And I said, I don't know if me and Chad will come in on the Chiefs, but I'm definitely getting more and more tuned into that Giants game. So definitely appreciate the boys calling about that one. I agree. Everyone loves Carolina. everyone's going to love that one, not a shocker, especially at Polly Market of plus three and a half. Cleveland plays eight and a half. Another game we haven't talked a lot about,

just an insane number. I think most pros you agree with that, that the Jaguars, this is a line totally based off last season. Like giving tons and tons of respect to the Jaguars, zero respects to a Browns team that, you know, everyone knows. Deshawn Watson hasn't played a good football game

and whatever it is three years, two years. Nobody's touching that one. So even Bookmaker, I talked to are like, can you please come bet this? We can't keep going above eight and a half. So that's the type of game that the books, they beg for that money. And the last game, I mean, obviously guys are on the bucks.

That game's kind of split. The last one, though, I really got a lot of questions about that. You know, we're not more into was that Houston game, which that is fair. I think we both are just, it's just always weird with us and Josh Allen. Maybe it's that Matt Mitchell effect looming over. They're right.

Like, this should be an auto smash play. It's Joe Brady, his friend. first time coaching on the road against the Houston defense. We just saw last night a great defense. So I talked, I'm all in on teasers. I bet that pretty heavily. This is a game. Me and Chad, most definitely might get bullied into put it in. It's just you're getting the plus one and a half with a great defense at home. It's once again, it's, we just don't trust the quarterback. So that's, that's one I've had to really swallow my pride on where it's like, can't coward my way out of it and just do teasers on it. I got to.

give out a line on it. So I am dug in. I bet the one and a half and I will be a big Houston backer this couple coming weekend. Well, by the way, Simon, I think the Seahawks proved last night when you have a great defense, quarterback really doesn't matter. You waiting for applause? Keep it moving. All right. It's surprising to me, Simon. No one has talked about the New York Jets at the Tennessee Titans plus one and a half. And it actually crept up a little bit to two and a half. that nobody bought my argument. On Tuesday, you said I was not being an adult. After the show, Matt Mitchell asked how I can spend so much time in the Jets.

You asked him to beg to jump in next time. Here we are. Can I assume you have still not made a bet on the Jets? And you will not acquiesce and go with me into the contest with the Jets. No, no. I said I had bet the Jets just like every other sucker in the world. We all know that Came Ward has looked hard. horrible, right? I mean, there's no secret to why we're betting the Jets here.

Sneaky Fantasy week one defense, if you're stuck, the Jets, I mean, because we just talked about Cam Ward, he might be terrible. And we've not seen anything to disprove that. Like, we haven't seen anything in the preseason. But my whole view of the chat, it's just, it's a week one line and it's never that easy. And the fact that it's, I think it's like 80% of the bets on the money are on the Jets. And like you said, it's ticking back up because there is pros, I know who are taking Tennessee because it's Sala at home with this defense first game against the Jets, against Gino Smith, you know, this game could go a million different ways.

That's why I don't want to take it. There's just too many variables, too many unknowns, when we have 15 other amazing games to pick from. So that's just my picture. I told you, if you get the Jets right here, and I think next week Tennessee plays the Eagles, you nail the Eagles again, you are the Tennessee champion.

You can bet whatever game you want with Tennessee Titans. I just, I have too much PTSD. Our fans have too much PTSD with the Titans. we just can't get involved in them we've been. All right. I'm curious. You mentioned a split on Tampa Bay at Cincinnati. The line's three and a half.

Tampa Bay was Chad's choice. Maybe I took it too early, and you indicated there's splits because the number is juiced to three and a half on both sides, like it might go to four at a lot of books. I haven't seen the four pop yet. You love the two. What are we missing? Why are some professionals coming in on Cincinnati? I think they're overreting their defense too much.

I do think their defense will be better. This isn't, it's like Dallas. It's not a bunch of guys that have played together. It's a new system on a new team in their first start going against a Baker offense that when they're clicking, my God, are they good? And we've talked to their offensive line is really good. So that's why I'm dug in with you on the Bucks. Like I really do think we end up having them in our contest

because it's such a great number. Yeah. It could never less us down in this spot, especially when the number is above three. He's just a covering machine. He always finds a way to back door when he's fully healthy. And this offense is, Ameka Buk was at practice.

Chris Godwin's brain at practice. Buckie Irving's been at practice. Keeney Gennel has been in practice. Their offensive line is totally healthy. If our biggest question of weakness is this buck's defense, which is fair, I mean, I still think Baker can keep us in a shootout. Like we're never going to be dead. Like me and you talked about it.

If he's down 10, we don't mind because that even Baker knows he's going to keep going for it, even on fourth down, you'll hopefully get us that back door. And we've seen defenses in those type of scenarios. They play lax. They give up the touchdown just as long as they're wasting time and dumping off short downfield. So it's really about the number in the matchup and the fact that the Bengals, historically, even Joe Burroughs have struggled in the week one, week two. Like we've seen those stats.

Joe Burrell's an incredible cover machine after week two. Like well above 500 before week two. He's well below 500. I think he has two covers or one cover in his career. So we're really playing the spot, playing the number in the situation. And just I am once again shocked that these professionals are just overrating this Bengals defense. We've all agreed they're going to be better. But in week one, it just feels like this ain't week nine projecting.

This is all new faces against a higher. power to offense. Offense that I know it sounds crazy looking back to me and Chad really believed through four games last year that Baker was going to potentially win an MVP. That's how good Baker was through four weeks last year before he got hurt.

So yeah, health is the biggest one. I mean, we learned to last night, right? All these guys going down, it's like you can't overthink. I think it's week nine, and these guys are all banked up. You have fully healthy teams in these situations. And yeah, it's really about us playing the number. So Chad's right. You can be patient and hope you get the four. There's not that much

difference than just grabbing the three and a half now just in case professional money does come in and bet it down. But I have no issue waiting if you need to and get the plus four. I've actually grabbed a couple plus fours when they thought a Mecabukah was going to miss this game. So it could jump back up, right? Like I said, it is split. There are professionals betting this Bengals team. It's all about what the book's going to need to attract at this point. I think it's fair to say because we talked about the Bengals so much during the preseason, and they're in a lot of our exactives, but your point about it's week one, not week nine,

that's what we're betting here. Like, we're not walking away from the Bengals season long. I think we still believe in them if their defense can get incrementally better. But Baker just has a better track record of delivering right now than the bagels defense does. I'm glad to see we haven't wavered on the box. I was worried that all of a sudden

there was going to be some contentiousness, and I don't like that. You know I don't like that. The Hard Rock Bet Casino app is here, Ontario. It's safe, secure, and crystal clear with fast payouts and 24-7 local support. You can play over 3,000 games right here, including Hard Rock Bet Casino exclusives. The Hard Rock Bet Casino app is here, Ontario. Roll with us. Must be 19 years of age or older to play.

only. Please play responsibly. Concerned about your gambling or that of someone close to you, visit connectsonneton.ca. Hey, jonas. We've been catching up with some great friends, Paul Rudd, Michael Buhle, Seth Myers, Nile Horan, Jake Shane, and making some new friends while getting into what's really like to have sisters, like Alex and Ashton Earl. She likes to control everyone and tell everyone what to do. Okay, well, control is a harsh word. I would say that's a harsh word. I am more outspoken. Growing up a lot of the times because she was so quiet. I would. speak for like the both of us now I'm working on like thinking a moment really not controlling him or i speak and joey king you know if you're like mom is yelling at your sibling and even if you're

annoyed with your sibling you just like won't let that slide it's like only you can yell at your sibling i'm like you can't do that here that is not talk about her like that oh my talk about her like that plus we've been taking your calls listening to your voicemails and giving advice or at least trying to so if you've got catching up to do now's the perfect time Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman. Angel Geratana. Jeremy Colhain.

Patrick McDonald. And we're the hosts of the Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists Podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is faux journal. I don't know. Have you guys heard of faux journaling? Yeah.

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I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sadako and the Thousand Paper Cranes by Audra McDonald's at the Wonderland Bookstore on 14. That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland bookstore yesterday and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of Zero Dark 30. No way. You have to come to the last bookstore, though. Kim Cottrell is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday.

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By age 11 or so, at least 70% have a phone. Middle school is a different world than the one we grew up in. I'm Dr. Joy, and this is therapy for black girls. We spend real time on it in our surviving middle school run, bringing in a child psychologist and a psychiatrist who's raising two black girls of his own to talk about what's really going on with our kids right now. So it's literally physiological and neurological and psychological and psychological chaos happening all this end up. We got into group chats and gaming, friendships and bullying,

and how to tell the difference between healthy monitoring and the, the kind of surveillance that erodes trust. There's belonging. You could think of belonging as, I can be myself and I can still be accepted. And then there's fitting in. Spitting in says I have to change who I am in order to avoid rejection.

Then we turn the conversation toward the fathers, sitting down with therapist Keir Gaines on Black fatherhood and what it means to raise a daughter through this stage. You don't have on shorts, so you can't do flips, you have on the dress, you have to cross your legs. That's the range of this run. From screen time to identity to the father's doing the work at home.

We have to get off her device. But the reality is there's a lot of life out there that we don't want you as your adults in their life to miss out on. This has been our surviving middle school run. Brought to you by the people who spend their careers thinking about exactly this. I'm Dr. Joy. Listen to therapy for black girls on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Chicago at Carolina, Carolina, three and a half. Get that at Polymarket.

This one was Simon. says, look, they talked about on sharp calls. You've bet it. I've bet it. Bryce Young is an underdog. Chicago with a terrible, terrible defense. Chicago was way overhyped. The money, the number has moved from three to three and a half in some places, two and a half to three in other places. I think we're getting a really good number here. Yeah, and that's what it all comes down to, just the number. As much as we do think the Bears, offense is an absolute juggernaut,

and this is a good match for them, right? You know, this is the type of team that we saw last year. I mean, the games where they need to be a shootout, for whatever reason, Bryce Young has stepped up. I mean, I keep going back to that playoff game against the Rams, how incredible of a game he had. But we've seen the Bryce do that last year, right? And a bunch of games where he needed to put up points and move the ball,

they have weapons. Like, Coker, Heterone McMillan, these are good receivers on the outside. We talked about this Bears team, could they have gotten away with it if Kobe Bryant was healthy? I think they could have. That's how good of a safety is. Without a field general like that in the middle,

they're going to have busted coverages. They're going to have blown assignments at some point. And just looking at the matchup, the fact that it's picked up, right? Some books are still two and a half, which I also think is very telling. When the books are still letting people come in and take a position on the Bears,

under three, while other books and polymark and particularly the markets are up to three and a half. That is, just shows how confident a lot of these books are in this panthers pot and taking that position on the Panthers. So the market hasn't shifted enough. I sadly say, I wish our show had that type of power. It's still like 90% of the bets on the money on the, on this Bears team. So our fans, our little fans have come in. They've taken their position on the Panthers. Maybe this is more updated come Sunday as people have bet their money here on, you know, the Seattle game than maybe tonight on this San Francisco game. It's like, okay, now they're going to start coming in on this side more with the bears.

Because I do, I am shocked to see there's still two and a half. So I just think the bears, the public are going to bet them up. I will be shocked Sunday if there aren't all threes and three and a halfs. I would love to see if there's two and a half because that would really give me a lot of confidence with this panthers side. But yeah, it's, it's tough. We know our contest. The lines are always updating and moving. So I hope we get the three and a half.

At two and a half, we have a real conversation. because we don't tend to take the two and a half, to be honest, unless we really love a team. Taking a dog at two and a half, it's just me and Chad, no, that point is such a big deal. How many times have it landed on three for us? So another game where I just hope everyone did the polymarketer, shopped around to find the three and a half.

It's just such a key number here and a bear's team that last year, how many games did they come from mine and win? So it's just that insurance is needed against a guy like Caleb Williams, who always finds a way to come back and win games. You mentioned the contest. I know people are asking about it. Please be patient. We apologize. We haven't given the official announcement and put up the site yet. There's just a lot of hoops to jump through. Matt Mitchell is working on it diligently, but it will get up. And even if it gets up a little bit late, the rules are going to allow for a full season contest. Simon, it is time for our brass balls. of the week presented by Polymarket. It is the Miami Dolphins, three and a half, currently trading at 45% at Polymarkets. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. Dude, we were kind of already there. Then the Brock Bowers news broke yesterday, so he's not going to be playing.

this in Cleveland are the the balliest plays on the board. We've decided to go with this one, partially because we've just been on it for so long. Yeah, and I get why you don't trust Cleveland, and we're more so here in Miami just because it is not only other trends pointing to it, but it's like, who are the Raiders to be catching three and a half against anybody, let alone. Especially with Brock Bowers out now. Yeah, and potentially genty.

And I know there's a lot of underlying numbers where I think it's Mayer or Myers, the backup is actually a pretty good tight end. And you should be able to step in in this KVX system and perform pretty well. But on the flip side, like I look at this Miami team and this is the exact type of week they could catch a team. I know I said that big is a sneaky, you know, survivor play, but that's just game theory. Like in actuality, if Miami is going to steal any type of game, it is week one. And with, you know, Willis, that quarterback, we don't know how long he'll last being healthy.

This is a great match for him. Like, this is the type of defense. They don't have a lineback because I can keep up speedwise for him once it gets outside the pocket. So between him and A-chan, I think we both can squint our eyes enough and see how they can cover this number. Defensively, there's obviously nothing there for Miami. Like I just going through their depth chart, it really is a hotspots of journeymen, bench players, guys you've never heard of. and that's their starters, like legit running them out there every week. So it might be a total train wreck.

Me and Chad might be down 15, 14, nothing here to start the game. You know, Malik Willis getting us a safety or who God knows what. But it just feels like this is the exact type of line we play in week one where it's like, even talking of traders, total market that's free to play right now because everyone's just either back on the Raiders or not touching this game at all. So hopefully it stays at three and a half whatever you're shopping at. I've seen, like since Chad talked about, since Brock Bowers news got announced, a lot of books have dropped the three. And some are teetering on two and a half now. Definitely grab this one now just in case by kickoff, it's down to three, two and a half.

I actually played Miami to win outright. I didn't even bother with the number. It's a three and a half. It'll be our brass balls trade of the week. You make a great point about the roster. So this from Doug Claussen, who works in research at CBS Sports, he put this on X. The dolphins are the only team in recorded history to pay more for players not on the roster, $183 million for players not in the roster than players on the roster, $104 million.

They are also the least experienced team to open a season in recorded history, something like 600 combined games for every player on the roster. But we're doing it, brother. We are freaking doing it. Football is back, folks, and you need to change the way you invest in the NFL this season. It's finally time to ditch your old sportsbook apps because Polly Market is here. Polymarket is a legal prediction market now available in all 50 states. And those old sports books, they're a relic of the past.

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All right. We talked a little bit about Cleveland and Jacksonville, Simon. Numbers at eight and a half. I came in hot on the Jags the other day. I actually included the Jags Money Line in the Discord as one of our potential groupers for the weekend. Reminder, my new book, The Number, comes out in January. If you pre-order it at readthenummer.com. You get access to the Discord every week. We are voting on bets to discuss. us on the show. I will make those bets with my own money, whatever we win, plus a floor of five grand will be donated to St. Jude's. Go to readthe number.com to join the conversation. Everyone must have listened to the show and heard you gently tell me I was an idiot for backing

for going against the Browns. We heard it in sharp calls. Of the six options and more than 90 votes in the discord, Simon the Jags got a total of four votes. And the line has moved in the Brown's direction. There are actually a couple seven and a halfs out there. So, clearly wise guys are betting on the Browns. Yeah, just too big of a number, too much respect for a team that it's a new season, everybody. Like as much as you want to talk about how good the Jacks finish and how incredible Trevor Lawrence with the second half of the season, which is all great. that's what you want. It's a totally new season in two teams that they're not perceived to be what they are,

I think, by general public. The Jags are good. I don't think they are, which this number is saying they are a top five, top six team. And on the flip side, this number is saying the Browns are a bottom two, bottom three team,

which I just can't agree with, especially when it comes to week one. Like to be catching eight and a half, seven and a half points in week one against a team, you have to be so dominant. Because you're basically saying all of us have all these unknowns, None of us have played preseason. We're going to come out here.

We're going to smack this team by maybe 10, potentially 10 points or more. And it's like, we know football. That just has not happened. You have to have such a bad game on one side of the ball, right? If Deshawn Watson comes out and has a ton of turnovers, yeah, we're dead as is. But if Munkin, we've got a whole offseason prepared for this, has the right game plan. They play smart. They have incredible amount of weapons around Deshawn Watson.

The biggest question is the offensive line. And we've talked at the time. There's ways to mitigate that. Like 15 teams in NFL had bad offensive lines. It's just the way it is. They all find a way, right? They all find a way to attack defenses when they have battle those lines. Whether that's getting the ball out quick,

whether that's running against it. Maybe the quarterback is mobile, which just saw Watson. I know it's been a long time. You can still run outside the pocket. So it's too big of a number. Like I said, it's, I haven't talked to a pro that had this model above seven. So the fact that it has dropped to seven and a half, you're still getting half a free point.

even on guys who models who favorite the Jaguar's team. Now, I have this number at six. So, like, I am way above that. And I think this is a great number of the Browns. And it is tough, though, trying to model this one out where it's like, Deshaun Watson, I know it sounds crazy, but him or Sanders, the difference in my model is literally a point. It's like there's not that big of a difference.

That's how far Deshaun Watson has fallen. But my model really does love this Brown's defense. And that's my only fear here is I'm going off tons of numbers. and data from last year, where this year, there is no Miles Garrett, right? As much as verse might be, you know, a good player, there's no way to mitigate the number one player in football and defense. And on the flip side, it's not Schwartz. It's a different defense.

And we've seen all the numbers, right? The Browns teams, their defense especially does not travel on the road. They've just struggled historically in the last couple of years on the road. So there is a lot of reasons to pause about it. But at the end of the day, it's like, you know, this, this Jaguars team. 30th ranked offensive line in my model this year. This Jaguars team, as much as we're going to say, Trevor Lawrence did improve and he was better,

I think it was more to do so that he just wasn't doing those super turnovers. And we've seen that, you know, come back and bite him against good defenses, which the Browns are for all temperance purposes. So just feels like a type of game that, you know, people in the public, they are betting the Saints. They are coming in betting the Cardinals. So you can look at all the splits.

There are people out there betting it. Nobody's, nobody but professionals are betting this Browns team. So it just feels like another draw of the line in the same type of game where pros will take a position. We think we know better in the public. And public could come smell like roses with this Jaguars team. You are truly betting at a terrible number. You're getting no value for betting this Jaguars team. You're basically bet at the highest part.

You can have the market if you're taking minus eight and a half right now on this Jaguars side. So the way you talk about it, this should be a no-brainer for a contest. Like, I feel like if it wasn't week one, we wouldn't even be hesitating. On the flip side, week one makes me want to do it even more because there is so much unknown. We're getting so many points. Like I really can't believe it's eight and a half. All right. Let's let's like consider it.

But I think you're right, Chad. I think it will by the time we get on here Sunday and morning, it will be seven and a half, unfortunately. So that would be the real decision. but at eight and a half, if we're fighting about the fifth one in, I think we'll both agree just to put them in. It's just such a big number, such a nice spot. And it's just, Jaguars could be really good,

but I don't think they're in that, they're not what they were last year at the end of the season, where they were this fine-toed offense, and their defense was getting tons of turnovers. Like that turnover of luck regrets, the offense should regress a little bit just because it's a new start to the season. And the Brown's team is just so many unknowns.

No one knows what this team could potentially be. What we do know is it is going to fall in Deshawn Watson. If this guy can't complete third down throws, me and you are no, we're going to know we're cooked. Like that's, that's going to be the tough part of this one. We're just totally betting to a guy that we don't know. But I will say my last memory is you betting him against the Ravens. I think it was plus seven and a half dog. And he was down like 21 at half, had like a broken collarbone, got the got the shot.

Yes. And didn't even know where he was and brought the Browns back against. that Ravens team and won that game outright. So we've seen Watson do it. It's just can he put it together, Chad, all these years later once again. Well, we also know that he's very fast. You mention his ability to run. Everyone knows from his latest legal troubles.

The guy is fast. I'm referring to a recent speeding ticket. There's no shortcut for saving time, but saving money is simple. Just combine your car and home insurance with Bel Air Direct and save. Get a quote at Bell Air Direct. Hey, everyone, it's the Jonas Brothers with the Hey Jonas Podcast. We've been catching up with some great friends, Paul Rudd, Michael Bublay, Seth Myers, Nile Horan, Jake Shane, and making some new friends while getting into what's really like to have sisters, like Alex and Ashton Earl. She likes to control everyone and tell everyone.

Okay, well, control is a harsh word. I would say that's a harsh word. I am more outspoken. Growing up a lot of the times because she was so quiet. I would speak for like the both of us. Now I'm working on, like, thinking a moment, really. and not controlling before I speak.

And Joey King. You know if you're like mom is yelling at your sibling and even if you're annoyed with your sibling, you just like won't let that slide. It's like only you can yell at your sibling. I'm like, you can't do that here.

That is, you do not talk about her like that. Only I talk about her like that. Plus, we've been taking your calls, listening to your voicemails and giving advice. Or at least trying to. So if you've got catching up to do, now's the perfect time. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman. Angel Geratana. Jeremy Colhane. Patrick McDonald. And we're the hosts of the Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists

Podcast. The Improvised Character Comedy Podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is faux journal. I don't know.

Have you guys heard of faux journaling? Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading. So we don't like to use that word anymore. Okay. A panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class? No!

I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sadako and the Thousand Paper Cranes by Audra McDonald's at the Wonderland Bookstore on 14th. That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland Bookstore yesterday and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of Zero Dark 30. No way. You have to come to the last bookstore though. Kim Cottrell is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday.

A panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween. sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He winks on Halloween. He gets right up next to the microphone. I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other. You never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween.

Listen to Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. By age 11 or so, at least 70% have a phone. Middle school is a different world than the one we grew up in. I'm Dr. Joy, and this is there for Black Girls. We spent real time on it in our surviving middle school run, bringing in a child psychologist and a psychiatrist who's raising two black girls of his own to talk about what's really

going on with our kids right now. So it's literally physiological and neurological and psychological and psychological chaos happening all this end up. We got into group chats and gaming, friendships and bullying, and how to tell the difference between healthy monitoring and the kind of surveillance that erodes trust. There's belonging. You could think of belonging as I can be myself and I can still be accepted. And then there's fitting in. Spitting in says I have to change who I am in order to avoid rejection. Then we turn the conversation toward the fathers,

sitting down with therapist Keir Gaines on Black fatherhood and what it means to raise a daughter through this stage. You don't have on shorts, so you can't do flips. You have on the dressy. You can cross your legs. That's the range of this run, from screen time to identity to the father's doing the work at home. You have to get off her device.

But the reality is there's a lot of life out there. that we don't want you as your adults in their lives to miss out on. This has been our surviving middle school run. Brought to you by the people who spend their careers thinking about exactly this. I'm Dr. Joy. Listen to Therapy for Black Girls on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Atlanta at Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, three and a half, solid everywhere. Looks like it might be headed to four.

opinions across the board are pretty much consensus on this. This was another submission in the Discord. I'll announce the winner of the grouper bets at the end, but a lot of people were making their voice heard about the Steelers. And I feel a little bit like we like the Steelers. Certainly, I like them on the money line. last night in the pregame with the Patriots and the Seahawks, Mike Tomlin just went off on Tua.

I almost feel guilty betting the Steelers at minus three, three and a half in our first game after Mike Tomlin cover guard has retired. Cover God has retired. But it's hard not to do it because there's nobody who thinks Tua, Tua might not be on the roster in week two. Yeah. And this would be the classic game where Tua does burn. us, but now the fact that the Raiders, you know, they're not, probably not usable now

Survivor. Pittsburgh is turning to that sneaky, sexy team that everyone's going to use now. Like they're the team that if you don't take the chargers, you have to use Pittsburgh, especially while Aaron Rogers healthy and this exact spot against a Falcons team that Stavansky is a great coach, can he find a way to scheme up to a against his defense and find a way? Yeah, but we've seen it. This to a, you know, style of play. I mean, you have guys coming out saying that if Pennix was healthy,

it would have been cut. Yeah. Like the fact that people in the media are saying that on TV, there are a ton of leaks right now in Atlanta. So that means I can't imagine what's going to the locker room and all the bad blood and everything like that. So this, this feels like the type of game that the books could get, could have got caught hanging a bad number because this opened at two and a half.

Jump to three. Now it's three and a half. And Chad said there's some book now looking to go to four. So normally, yes, during the regular season, if it's a couple weeks in, we probably would be scared off of this one. And who knows if ends up being our only favorite we put in the contest because the number has moved so much.

But money line-wise, you know, taking them a survivor. I just feel like it all lines up here for Pittsburgh where this is the exact scenario, the exact game with a veteran head coach like Mike McCarthy, they do come out and win, right? You just don't see their defense sleeping here. It's going to be a very easy defense to scheme-wise if you're the Steelers.

You're basically assuming to his whole goal will get the ball of his hands and within three seconds. So press coverage, bringing everyone into the box, like maybe having one high safety. You don't need to go cover two against Tua. I don't know if you have to drop two deep safeties. It's just slant the coverage to Drake May side,

you know, having an extra guy down the box for B. John Robinson. It's like, is this really going to be that complicated of a game? Is Atlanta really going to steal this one from us? Yeah, it could happen because it's week one. But just on paper, people's models, It's like most guys I talk to have this right at four, four and a half. So technically you're still getting value here on Pittsburgh if you want to take that side.

And I would say our only hesitation at all would just be the fact that it is week one and weird things can happen. But game theory, especially for Survivor, if you're trying to play a spot here, it really is tough to find another time you're going to use the Steelers. So much you want to say, well, I'll take them against the Brown, blah, blah, blah. It's usually not a smart play to take a team against a divisional foe in Survivor. pool. So this one just jumped out to me. It's like a game where I'm always looking to try to find a favorite to take. This one just jumps out of like, okay, is there a scenario where Pittsburgh just absolutely steam rolls this Falcons team? Yes, there is because it's just such a good team on

paper veteran-wise. Like this defense, I think they're a highest-speed defense on football. They can't shut down to this falcons offense. They're going to have real problems this upcoming season. So, yeah, this feels like a tone-setting game from McCarthy and this Pittsburgh team. I can't see them really relaxing in this matchup. I totally agree. We are aligned. Matt Mitchell, I'm going to surprise you here because I want to go to Buffalo, Houston. Houston is a one and a half point underdog.

Simon talked about it from Sharp Calls. You and I are just, we cannot get over C.J. Stroud. And I think that's a complete and total blocker for us on this Houston team. Like, they weren't even one of the main. teams we talked about for our Super Bowl future exactus. And we love Domeco Ryans and we love this defense. So what do you think the professional betters when they're calling you and telling you about Houston are saying that we're missing when it comes to CJ's shroud?

Are we just not giving this defense enough credit to be so dominant? Yeah, I would say the pitch on CJ would just be, this is the guy that has gone to the playoffs and won a playoff game every year of his career. And if you didn't have such an incredible blazing, amazing rookie year, our standards would be different. And CJ's admitted last year was a down here. He needs to play better than that. You know, offensive line, total reshuffled could be better. I think the professionals look at this is you have to take Houston because of all the history of Josh Allen against this Houston defense.

He has always struggled against them. And the fact that we saw it last night, like you can have poor quarter. quarterback play and still find a way to win a game. Like if you have a great defense and you do get turnovers, which, you know, Josh Allen is not a turnover happy quarterback, but against really good defenses, he does turn the ball over. I mean, you can go through his career. He obviously has worked on the picks.

I mean, I remember two, three years ago, it was like a guarantee he was going to have some dumb pick in the red zone. He has worked on. He's corrected. Yeah, for sure. Got much better of that. And Joe Brady is a part of that. He's helped him improve that.

So, you know, as much as I want to give them the benefit of the doubt and think Joe Brady will have a game plan here, the more you break down Houston defense, they run basically the most basic easy defense ever. They're just so talented and good, especially their D-Ns. It doesn't matter. Like, it doesn't matter if you've seen that defensive style and what they're running a thousand times. They have two D-Ns that can both run just as fast as Josh Allen. And there is not another team in all football that has that. So, you know, between Hunter and Anderson, those are the game records. Those are the, that's the change up front.

And then the fact that you have a cornerback that can match up, you know, with DJ Moore and Stanley, it's like, okay, Stingley, it's, I'm just trying to find a way to not take this once yet. And the more we break it down, it's like it's plus one and a half on a home dog with a great defense. It feels like we kind of have to back to Texas. Yeah. Yeah, getting called out on just saying I'm only going to take him in teasers. That was fair. It's like I should be more dug in because they had bad Texans plus one and a half. I just, all in this show, I know it's people's money here.

I'm trying to be as safe as I can, especially in week one. There is no safe bet, right? We've seen that a million times over. Anything can happen in these games. You can't really take a coward's way out in this one. So just matchup-wise, I think a lot of things favor with the Texans are my only fear is like this Bill's defense, which we know nothing about. It's all these new players.

What if they are an absolute true? Rainer. Like this is not enough his respect has been paid to Sean McDermott, how great of a defensive mind he was, just because his defense are so terrible in the playoffs that between Bill's fans and us and the media, we're all just like, all right, is it really that big of a loss losing Sean McDermott? We'll find out pretty quick here. I was going to say, if CJ can put up over 21 points, I feel like they're the type of team that that's all that defense needs to win games. If they go above 20 against Josh Allen, like a 21 to 20 type of game, that does feel like the type of final we're going to see here in this matchup.

So I say it again, don't take Houston minus one and a half. Shop around. Get that plus number. We have been caught so many times taking the flip line. You want to get the plus number here if you can on Houston. All right. Well, it's funny you bring that up because the next game, Green Bay at Minnesota, Minnesota minus one and a half.

And we talked about this on Tuesday that the flip line was scaring us off a little bit. Because we have been burned on that so many times. And we've won on that so many times. When we've gotten the dog at one and a half before the number flipped to them being a favorite, we have won and we've lost on the other side. Here's my theory on this one. I'm not sure that past applies here because other times the line. flip was really dictated by the money, right?

Like we knew what the rosters were going to be. The variables were known. And the number moved because somebody came in and a group of people came in and they liked it at plus one and a half and it moved to minus one and a half. And we had to make a decision based on the one and a half, minus one and a half. This wasn't dictated by moves or bad line. It was dictated by personnel. The line moved the day Kyler Murray was announced. So are we betting into Minnesota with Kyler Murray as a one and a half point favorite because that's who we think is better?

I'm not sure that the line move issue should be scaring us away. Well, this definitely moved, though, because of professional one. This is another game split right down the middle of public all over Green Bay and the professionals all over Minnesota, which I understand totally, right? You have a Green Bay team that's been the playoffs multiple years, Jordan Love. I mean, we talked to all the fantasy football guys they have wise. Like the receiving core is really talented. Fans just aren't going to break down Green Bay's offensive line. Fans aren't going to go in and break down Green Bay's defensive scheme.

And the difference that Michael Parsons makes to that team because their whole defense is basically built around him at this point. Right. They just do not have talent defensively. And the fact that he's missing this game against a mobile quarterback, everything just keeps point. pointing to Kyler. That's my fear here in this game is it's one that feels too easy and I do not get why it's not two and a half or three. Like Minnesota, I have them graded so much higher than Green Bay. Just right now is week one, right? Because it's just Green Bay is that bad luck, right? They have no Josh Jacobs. They have no Michael Parsons. Those are two guys you could say are both top three,

top four players on this team. On the flip side, they have everybody. I mean, I'm trying to think the thing that might be hurting, I guess you could say the Vikings is they have no pass rush. They have no star guy on that D-line that puts fear into the quarterbacks, right? They don't have those type of guys. We've seen in this scheme, guys just pop up out of nowhere. Yeah, they manufacture it. We thought that when they lost Hunter and Andrew Van Ginkle was coming in,

all of a sudden, Van Ginkle's getting double-digit sacks. And people have called me out on it. My pattern is very simple here. I back defenses in week one. I bet under's in week one because we've just seen it. We have the data. These teams that don't play in preseason, the offenses always use the first two, three weeks as their preseason.

Like to get right, guys are out of sync. I mean, Seattle, I know you can say it was because Sam Darno got knocked out. He had like 100 penalties. I mean, 100 yards and penalties. They had so many pre-snap motion penalties. So many little stupid things like that because these guys just aren't in rhythm. That's why I always lean towards a good defense. Steelers, Vikings, Seattle, you know, you're just...

Houston? Yeah, Houston. I mean, they always want to look towards the better defense, especially when the other team does not have a good defense at all, which in all those matches we just announced, for the most part, other than the Patriots, all those other teams don't really have good defenses. So I'm really interested to see what the Packers are alike here

because, you know, that number was so interesting in like you talked about in the summer, that the bookmakers, are they really? saying the difference between Kyler Murray and nine is three points. I don't know. Like I feel like that was a number they hung thinking it was already going to be Kyler. And then once it was announced, it was Kyler, so much money came and they did flip it. So another game where, yeah, if we're debating between them, Houston or the giant or Cleveland, I could get there in Minnesota. But like I said, it's, it's always tough where it's like we've been burned by this number flip so many times. But I do

think it's still undervalied. If you want to take the Vikings, I said, I have it two and a half. I have a three. If you want to take the one and a half, I said you're getting a good value on Minnesota, but we've seen this matcha before, right? LaFleur, I have to go hit up our guy of an AIMS. Almost positive LaFleur in September. He's one of the best coaches against the spread, just like Dan

Campbell. So, not trying to lean too much in a past performance, because those were way better Green Bay teams. You have to think those were two years of that was with Aaron Rogers MVP runs. And Green Bay had a much better defense in the past as well, and offensive line. So it just this all these things feels like it's lining up for I think people who pick the Packers wins division and they're high in the Packers. This week one might be a rude awakening for them. That's like, oh, this is not Packers team of the past. It's going to be all on Jordan Love.

And in this scheme, you know, defensively, I think Jordan Love could get turned over here. I know he doesn't turn the ball over much, but this, this Vikings defense, I feel like this is the exact type of game they could get after Jordan Love. The hard rock bat casino app is here, Ontario. It's safe. secure and crystal clear with fast payouts and 24-7 local support. You can play over 3,000 games right here, including hard rock bet casino exclusives. The hard rock bet casino app is here, Ontario.

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and making some new friends while getting into what's really like to have sisters, like Alex and Ashton Earl. She likes to control everyone and tell everyone what to do. Okay, well, control is a harsh word. I would say that's a harsh word. I am more outspoken. Growing up a lot of the times, because she was so quiet. I would speak for, like, the both of us.

Now I'm working on, like, thinking a moment, reeling it in, and not controlling a minute. And Joey King. You know if your, like, mom is yelling at your sibling and even if you're annoyed with your sibling, you just won't let that slide. It's like only you can yell at your sibling. I'm like, you can't do that here.

That is, you want to talk about her like that. Only I talk about her like that. Plus, we've been taking your calls, listening to your voicemails and giving advice. Or at least trying to. So if you've got catching up to do, now's the perfect time. Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman. Angel Geratana. Jeremy Colhane, Patrick McDonald. And we're the host. of the Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists Podcast The Improvised Character Comedy Podcast Where each week a new panel of artists

Discuss their craft Join us for a panel of wellness influencers What I try to do is faux journal I don't know, have you guys heard of faux journaling? Yeah, it's reading, it's called reading. So you're, so we don't like to use that word anymore Okay, a panel of New Yorker cartoonists Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class?

No! I've been dying too! I'm so sorry, I'm not. I'm seeing a reading of Sadako and the Thousand Paper Cranes by Audra McDonald's at the Wonderland Bookstore on 14th. That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland Bookstore yesterday, and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of Zero Dark 30. No way. You have to come to the last bookstore, though.

Kim Cottrell is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. A panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He winks on Halloween. He gets right up next to the microphone. I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other. You never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween.

Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists on artists on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. By age 11 or so, at least 70% have a phone. Middle school is a different world than the one we grew up in. I'm Dr. Joy, and this is therapy for black girls. We spend real time on it in our surviving middle school run, bringing in a child psychologist and a psychiatrist who's raising two black girls of his own to talk about what's really going on with our kids right now. So it's literally physiological and neurological and psychological and psychological chaos happening all of the same time.

We got into group chats and gaming, friendships and bullying, and how to tell the difference between healthy monitoring and the kind of surveillance that erodes trust. There's belonging. You could think of belonging as I can be myself and I can still be accepted. and then there's fitting in. Spitting in says, I have to change who I am in order to avoid rejection. Then we turn the conversation toward the fathers, sitting down with therapists Keir Gaines on Black fatherhood and what it means to raise a daughter through this stage. You don't have on shorts, so you can't do flips,

you have on the dress, so you have to cross your legs. That's the range of this run, from screen time to identity to the fathers doing the work at home. You have to get off her device, but the reality is there's a lot of life out there that we don't want you as your adult, in their lives to myth out or. This has been our surviving middle school run.

Brought to you by the people who spend their careers thinking about exactly this. I'm Dr. Joy. Listen to Therapy for Black Girls on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Last game I want to talk about to consider for our final five, you mentioned it off the top of the show. And I actually left it in, not knowing it was part of sharp calls in the script prior to that. Because we talked about considering it if the line got to three. And some threes are popping up. Any remaining two and a halfs look like they're headed to three.

I think we do think the Giants could have a sneaky good defense. Their pass rush could be really good. And like the Bengals, we like the Cowboys. We're high on the Cowboys, but we don't know what their defense is going to be. We think over a season it's going to get better. But in the first game, feels like this is a huge public side for a, a high profile team on the road in the division in a bit of a tough spot. Yeah, it's the reason to keep working on all these first time offensive coordinators and a first time

defensive coordinators. It is a big deal. I mean, we could say, well, it was because of San Darno got hurt last night that they scored zero points in the first half, which is totally fair. But we could also say, well, it's a first time OC. Like that was, that's a hard matchup last night in Seattle for first and most of the gun's variable in that defense. And yes, in the second half, he feels.

figured it out, of course. See, if you could be said here about the Cowboys, this is the first time OC against a Giants team that, as much you want to make fun of, if neighbors is fully healthy, if Scataboo is fully healthy. I mean, another kid in the outside fields is really talented.

They have weapons offensively. The question's always been about that offensive line and protecting Darden keeping him healthy. I mean, he's healthy right now. The offensive line, for the most part, is healthy. Like, we've talked, their defense, which is basically everything the Giants are built on, they're up front guys this is their dream scenario going against a banged-up cowboy's front like

you know you have two starters potentially missing this game for the cowboys how can that not be a big deal for a guy like deck who's a pocket passers so yeah i i i agreed with a lot of sharp calls a lot of guys calling me up saying that i was letting my bias is getting the way here because me and you are both down on the giants this upcoming season doesn't matter i can't i can't adjust and bet on the week one so i said to people it's all about the number like you're getting me plus three no-brainer. Two and a half, that's a real conversation for both of us, especially come Sunday morning about getting them in our contest.

But this feels like one of the more sharp games of the week, right? I think a lot of professionals are lining up on it. The public, like we talked about, the darling of this Cowboys team, everyone kind of loves them. A lot of people are picking them when the division. And the fact that they're getting two and a half, that looks like a great bet to them. So like we've talked about,

I'm really interested to see where the market goes on this one on Sunday night, because if the public does get abysion, absolutely demolished. I think this stays at two and a half. If public has an absolute field day and the dogs get crushed, we could get all this all this all way up to three and a half on the Giants team, which would be a no-brainer smash spot for me at that point. So I'm invested.

I bet the Giants of the plus three. If we're stuck at two and a half, that's a real conversation we'll have to have. But everyone out there, shop around, get the best number here because even our friends over a polymarket, they ticked up the three and a half. And then immediately someone traded a pretty big number. and it went right back down to two and a half. So, yeah, something they'd be on the lookout for. I don't know if we'll get back to three and a half,

but there's very smart, big money waiting for that giant's number to get back up to three and a half. Look, we said on Tuesday that we felt like this might be a little bit of a trap if you're betting the Cowboys. So, all right, we got a lot of games that we're going to have to. One stat too, I forgot to give it out. Divisional Home Dogs, that's what we talked about. Divisional Home Dogs might be the last.

like 15 years, they're 11 of 5 against the spread in week one as a home dog. So there is historical data too backing up, just taking these teams. And that's why we like Minnesota, right, but they flipped. So it's just if you're always looking for those trends and the stuff, it's rare in week one you get these home dogs. And when you do, it's usually a really great opportunity to bet on these teams. Simon, I think we're going to have eight games in which we got to choose five for our Sunday morning show.

Don't forget, we're back Sunday mornings where we will give our final five. we will be back Sunday nights live after the late games and before Sunday night football begins we'll review how we did during the day. You got to our survivor too. Oh no, we got a lot to do right now still. The games that we'll probably end up choosing from,

Tampa Bay, Carolina, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Houston, Minnesota, Miami and the Giants. I mentioned the Discord groupers. of the week earlier. Join the Discord. Pre-order the number. My book, it's out in January. Go to readthe-number.com. Order the book. You'll get an invite. Help us raise some money for St. Jude's. We had six choices to choose from for the bet I am making. I will do this every single week. As I mentioned, Jacksonville was the lagger, just four votes out of 91. Second place, Simon,

Philadelphia Eagles money line minus 218. In first place, I mentioned it earlier. Pittsburgh Steelers got them at minus 178. That actually ticked down a little bit for minus 185. So I don't know what's happening there, but we did take the Steelers money line minus 178 for our Discord group or Polymarket has that right now. Steelers over the Falcons currently trading at 64%.

Simon, do you agree with the Discord and their votes? Yeah, love Pittsburgh. Hopefully don't mush it. Don't mush it. We'll report the results on Sunday. I'm loving the conversation in the Discord. Honestly, it's a blast. We were active last night for the game.

So join us at readthe number.com. Make your voice heard. Prayer to the book. Get the invite. Underdog, Moneyline, Parlay. Like your dog, your dog likes my dog. Simon, what do we think here? If we're just doing two teams?

I think so, yeah. I feel like we've got to go Houston and the Giants. So Houston plus 100 giants are plus 140. Not Miami, not Carolina. We could, but like those teams, we have three and a halfs. Yeah. So that's why it's just, you could, but we're, We're really thinking that game ends on a field goal, honestly.

Yeah. Favorites parlay. This is a money line parlay. Our favorites, money line parley. Favorites, money line parlay. We've got to get Pittsburgh, obviously. Pittsburgh, yeah. Don't have a choice.

And. Got to go Philly. And Philly. Well, let's do three team because it's just because the V. Yeah, yeah. Is it? That third one. I know.

Because we could do like a huge chalk one if we wanted to. That's what I was going to say. Do we go with like Detroit or less or the chargers? Yeah. I mean, chargers are minus 500. Detroit's minus 310. So let's take Detroit. Yeah, that's a big difference.

Let's take Detroit. Way better. So our favorite parlay is going to be Pittsburgh. It's going to be Philly and it's going to be Detroit. Our underlaw, underdog money line parlay. We're going to do Houston and the New York. York Giants. All right. Give me your biggest bets. Pull up those pants and be a man.

Oh, man. I mean, there's just so much I've invested in, I guess, for dogs, Carolina, very, very large position on them at plus three. I've tried to bet more the three and a half, but I'm really having invested the plus three number. Obviously, we talked about Texans, I have a ton of money on teasers, started a bet more, obviously, now on their side. Tampa, another team I haven't been betting for three, four months. And I would not be shocked. I would not be shocked come Sunday if the Giants had to be one of my bigger. I knew you were going to say that.

I didn't really bet that much all summer because I just, like I said, I was very down on them and just I did not buy the hype. But for this matchup, the fact that it's getting to three, I have no choice, honestly. It's like that's an egregious movement, way too much value on the Giants team the pass on and would not be shocked coming Sunday more if that ends up being my biggest bet of the day just been bent at every day the last three days since it's gotten to three and I'm gonna keep seeing that like I said polymarket got the alert touch three and a half and I immediately put a ton of money into it and it went right back down at two and a half so that's that's what I'm really open on it

if it goes back to three and a half I'm gonna try to get down more money on it but no issues taking the three no issue taking the two and a half that's the best you can find here on this giant side. Sharp versus square, Simon. First one of the year. Reminder. Chad's choice was Tampa Bay. Simon says was Carolina. We're welcome to make those our choices for this as well. But I defer to you. You won last year. You can go with your first bet. I mean, I guess I'll just do them because I just spent five minutes talking about. I go Giants. I'll take, I'll take the three for New York. All right. So you're taking the Giants plus three. Just because I put myself out there.

You know what I'm going to do? I do not. I'll take the New York Jets. Jets. I'm going to, I'll live with it. I'll live with the shame. I'll live with the agony. I'll live with the ridicule.

I'll take the New York football. Jets. Week 1, Survivor. I feel like we're going with the Steelers. Yeah, it's all game theory. So if you're in one contest, you want to play as safe as possible, okay, go Chargers. Like I got no issue doing that.

Hardball has never lost week one. He's six and no his career. Chargers are a great team. Would be very shocking if they got backdoor to loss that game against Cardinals. So, yeah, if I'm, you know, someone like me that's in 30, 40 survivor pools, maybe I'll do 25% or maybe half on the Chargers. But the other half was on the rate. I've taken them out now, and I'm going Pittsburgh.

So it's just pure game through. Don't know when else I'll use Pittsburgh. Use them now, get them out of the way, don't have to worry them on the rest of the season. So that's the play for me. I know some people's models still have the Raiders at number three. So they have one, Chargers, number two. They got Pittsburgh number three.

They got Raiders. And then number four, they have Jaguars. So if you still want to do Raiders, it's not the worst spot. But me and Chad told you, the fact they're down, potentially they're two best offensive players. on already a bad team.

It's just not worth the risk for me with the Raiders here. So I can't believe I switched them out because I was so happy to have them a month ago and Survivor. Now I'm totally out on it.

So yeah, Pittsburgh Chargers. Those are my two teams. All right, listen, that's our show. If you're listening to this right away on Thursday, a reminder, we do like San Francisco plus three and a half tonight

versus the Rams in Australia. Simon and I are going to be back on Sunday morning with our final NFL week one bets, our five favorite bets. This has been Sharper Square presented by Polymarket, part of the volume podcast network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Applepods, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe,

leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until Sunday, love you. On an autumn, we still believe that elves are about in Paris. come out to bob for apples and prizes. But goblins and sprites play havoc all night and tumble in different

disguises. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman. Angel Geratana. Jeremy Colhain. Patrick MacDonald. And we're the hosts of the Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists Podcast. The Improvised Character Comedy Podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft.

Join us for a panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up. He winks on Halloween. He gets right up next to the microphone. I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other. You never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists every Thursday on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. So like by age 11 or so, at least 70% have a phone. I'm Dr. Joy, and this is therapy for black girls. We spend our surviving middle school run getting in. into what's happening inside your kid's brain, the group chats, and their friendships, and what you can do about it. Your child is not doing this on purpose.

That's the kind of perspective we've been pulling from the psychologists and psychiatrists who studied this for a living. Listen to Therapy for Black Girls on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Self-care September is your reminder to slow down, check in with yourself, get off your phone, and maybe ask,

why am I like this? I'm Jemisbeg, host of the Cyclone, of your 20s podcast and this month we're helping you make sense of the person that you are becoming from setting boundaries and navigating friendships to understanding anxiety confidence relationships and attachment sometimes our biggest decisions without us even realizing it aren't driven by what we truly want but by what will prevent us from feeling lonely or being alone listen to the psychology of your 20s on the iHeart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Decoding Women's Health. I'm Dr. Elizabeth Pointer, chair of women's

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