The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 6 Bets: Lions-Chiefs, Cowboys-Panthers, Patriots-Saints, 49ers-Bucs and more

Episode Date: October 9, 2025

NFL betting media maven Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter pick more best bets for NFL Week 6. They dive into their favorite NFL matchups across the board on a quest for five winning against the spread bets for their weekly NFL pick 'em pool contest. We get reactions to the Joe Flacco trade between the Browns and Bengals. We also get Sharp Calls, where Simon recaps the phone calls he's received from fellow professional gamblers. Games covered today include Thursday Night Football between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants led by Jaxson Dart, Sunday Night Football between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs, the Cincinnati Bengals visiting the Green Bay Packers, the Las Vegas Raiders vs Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos vs New York Jets in the London game, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys vs the Carolina Panthers and more. We also get Round Robins, Simon's biggest bets of the week, moneyline favorites, and so much more. #Volume  -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  0:03:00 - Start  0:05:00 - Sharp Calls 0:08:00 - COWBOYS-PANTHERS 0:15:00 - CHARGERS-DOLPHINS 0:25:00 - SEAHAWKS-JAGUARS 0:28:30 - BROWNS-STEELERS 0:34:00 - PATRIOTS-SAINTS 0:43:00 - TITANS-RAIDERS 0:47:00 - NINERS-BUCCANEERS 0:52:00 - CARDINALS-COLTS 0:54:00 - BENGALS-PACKERS 1:02:00 - LIONS-CHIEFS 1:09:00 - BEARS-COMMANDERS 1:14:00 - Simon's Biggest Bets 1:15:00 - Round Robins + more Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you.

you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Why are we all so obsessed with romance? On the Radio 831 podcast, join us, Sanjana Basker and Tyler McCall, as we unpack all the trending tropes, fuzzy adaptations, book talk drama, and celebrity love stories with hot takes and sharp guests. Each episode digs into what these stories reveal about desire, fantasy, identity, and how we love now. Listen to the Radio 831 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Saigon, the story of my family and of the country that shaped us. From IHeart Podcasts, Saigon.

You don't think I'm serious about a free Vietnam? One city, a divided country, and the war that tore America apart. This is for Vietnam. They're pouring patril all over here. Freedom for Vietnam! There's a fire coming to this country and it's going to burn out everything. Listen to Saigon on the IHeart Radio. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

The story I've told myself can then shape my behavior and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast Deeply Well with Debbie Brown if you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole. This podcast is for you to hear more. Listen to Deeply Well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart, radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.

I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as always, by my still BFF, my companion, my confidre professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing, brother? We are freaking great. You and I are still BFFs. I don't want anyone worried about if people were asking me questions, people were concerned.

Some people loved when it got spicy on Tuesday. I enjoyed it too. I feel like it's going to make it for a more interesting Thursday as we are on the Thursday week six episode trying to narrow down our options on our quest for our five favorite picks and if Tuesday's show was any indication, it might be tougher to narrow it down on our journey than usual. A couple quick reminders.

Number one, we tease this on Sunday. Thanks to our wonderful benefactors at Hard Rockbet. We are going to be relaunching our free-to-play five games against the spread pick-em contest that we've done for the past couple years. A lot of our old head listeners know what this is, but you guys get to compete against me and Simon in a free-to-play pick-em contest. There will be prizing from Hard Rock Bet.

We're going to announce the ability to sign up next week. It's a blast. And we're excited to participate and join everybody who's going to sign up to compete against me and Simon. We'll give up all the details starting next week. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube. YouTube, Apple pods, Spotify, wherever you get your pods.

Let's get this thing going. It's time for Sharp calls. Answer this phone. All right. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you do with? Yeah, busy, busy week. I feel like we did pretty good, though, giving out what side we thought

to be the professional side. It's pretty much gone that way. We've already seen Panthers line moved. That was a regret. Should have made Simon says. I thought it was going to maybe get the four. That's why I didn't. The three and a halfs are basically gone.

There's pretty much just threes out now on Carolina. I got a lot of calls about that one. A lot of love for the Jags, a lot of love for the Colts, which again, both sides, it feels like that we were on from the get-go. Pittsburgh, surprisingly, and I do think it was about the number, right? Like, we did a show and that number was four. I know a lot of guys who grab the four, four and a half and even the five. So if people are wondering what side the pros are on,

I think they're joining the public on that side. I think they really like the Pittsburgh in that exact spot, which again, we can go through. I got a lot of fun numbers on it. They didn't talk much about it. Still trying to figure out it. 49ers. I know a lot of pros that love the 49ers on the spot.

They love the number. They love this matchup for them. And a lot of what they say is true. The bucks are banged up. They do have injuries now to their secondary as well. Like, I get it. That's a game. I guess we can go through.

I just total blind spot to me. I just thought that was a Bucks number minus three. Pretty, like, I don't even think you practiced yesterday. So, really interesting. The pros are so heavy on this 49ers team. That's always something that just sends the alarms off. When it's like, what am I missing here? Why do they love this number so much?

You know, it's a unique spot. We talked about it briefly, too. You know, we talked about how we liked the Bears. I know a lot of pros. They really like the commanders. They like the number. They like the spot. So that's one we can talk about.

The last one, I think we knew was coming. Chiefs, all pros. It's going to be pros versus Joe's. I know a couple pros that have taken positions on Detroit. But they're doing it when most, I think, pros have, which is their model has this as Detroit is a favorite, which I think most pros do. And like to me, my push back to them is that should tell you something.

When everyone has the same number and it's way off, and the books, like I said, are taking a ton of money, and they're not budging here. So that number has come down. Like, it was stuck in minus two and a half. There are some one and a half is now popping up if you want to get the chief side. But that just sounds like it's the pro side.

And I'm not shocked by that. I just thought there was going to be more money and respect on this Detroit side for professional betters. And it just seems like they're going to trust the trends in the spot and back to this chief's team. So really, really fun matchups to break down this week. Yeah. I really want to get into that Bucks Niners game because you have been on the Bucks, and I am shocked at all the action coming in on the Niners from professionals.

So we're going to dig into all that and more. We'll get to brass balls, biggest bets, all that kind of good stuff. As we go through the show, first want to talk about Dallas at Carolina, you liked it at three and a half. We both bet it at three and a half. This is, I think, where the slow burn anger began on Tuesday because I was not as committed to Carolina as you were. The line has moved in that direction. As I've done more research, it obviously makes sense. And we can see why the number has been moving in that direction.

Cowboys, dead last in defensive DVOA. They give up the most yards per attempt, the most that number increase, most yards per attempt, meaning passing attempt, that number increases against mobile QBs, which I would qualify Bryce Young as a mobile QB for his ability to move around in the pocket and keep his eyes downfield. Everything about Bryce Young has been improving the past couple of weeks. And we've talked about Dave Canales and how he's been able to make Bryce Young a better quarterback. Also, more than likely they're getting back Chuba Hubbard, Dallas still riddled with

injuries. Even if they hold up like they did against the Jets, the Panthers offense is more than capable of neutralizing all of the offensive capabilities that the Cowboys have when they're playing at home in Carolina. Totally makes sense. I've come to love this play. I bet it at three and a half. It is now at three. Yeah, like I said, should have just made this one, Simon says. Again, thought it was going to come down, but didn't think it'd come down that quick. The professionals came in on it.

And yeah, I still love it. Still want people to bet it. I hope people bet it when it was three and a half. We can start with all the DAC stats if we want, just because I have heard pushback from some pros and some people that, why they are betting Dallas. And I said, well, you're lucky. It's down to three now. So you've got even better of a number, which.

Again, the DAC numbers here, pretty alarming. We've already talked about DAC versus bad teams, and he burned us last week with it. We know how dominant DAC is against bad teams, right? He's 40 and 13 straight up when he's spent against a team below 500, so 76%, 33, 18, and 2, so 65% against the spread. He's, you know, winning those games by 9.7 points per game. So we've seen historically DAC does really well,

his exact spots. And another one that jumped out, you know, Dack, you would think, okay, this is a back-to-back road game. How is he doing in these type of spots? He's 12 and 5 against the spread. And in the first three months of the season, he is 9-1 against the spread. So it's not ideal. Like when you dive into those numbers, it's like, okay, DAC performs well here. But I do want to give out the stats we do like about Carolina and why.

I talked a little bit about it. I just think they're a different team at home. I know it's a crazy small sample. We can go back to just Bryce's career, which he's dreadful on the road. I don't know if you've seen this dad chat. He is one in 15 on the road straight up in his career. I have not seen that. Yeah.

So that already should let you know that, okay, he just doesn't win road games. So that could be our thing where we just stay away from him on the road. I mean, obviously spread we can talk about, but never take them in our money line parlay that we love doing on these underdogs. But when he got consistently home games, so back-to-back-home games in his career, he's four-and-one against the spread. So, again, very small sample, but that just shows in his career when he has back-to-back-back-home games, he's comfortable.

He does well, and the market still undervalues him. He's averaging 26 points per game in those matchups. So, again, that's a big deal. Chad is talking about this is a historically bad Dallas defense, which another stat I loved. So since 2003, again, this is how unique of a spot. this is you have a defense and an offense in Dallas that's given up 400 plus yards per game. Again, very unique.

So when you get six games in the season, these teams, again, that give up a shit ton of yards defensively, they're 39, 50 against the spread, 26 and 40 against the spread in this exact spot. So you see that they can score, but the market tends to favor their offense where what burns these people is the defense. That's why when I look at that number, the hook did match. You wanted the three and a half because it feels like when I look at these numbers, it's telling me DAC is going to win this game somehow. But if you get the hook, it's a real live cover with this Carolina team.

So again, I don't mind getting the three. It's a professional number you've seen. It's all the money. I mean, I talk to bookmakers. It's all Dallas. So that is very smart professional money that have hit these different books that have moved from three and a half to three. And it's holding there.

So if you want to be patient, if you miss the three and a half, there are still a couple out there if you can find it. If not, I think if you wait, we'll see what professional money comes out. I do see this getting back to three and a half because I just see the general public coming in so heavy on this cowboy side where, you know, the numbers, the trends and stuff, it backs up the love for DAC. So I think you can be patient here and get this three and a half again. Again, we talked about making this one of our bets today. I'm not going to force it in just because we didn't miss the best number. And I personally have only bet this three and a half.

So I don't want to be given out the three on this Carolina side. Right. We talked about making it our brass balls better the week. We're not. That stat about DAC against bad teams is somewhat concerning. But I do think it's a little bit mitigated because most of that has come when he had some semblance of a defense. And this was just a better team. And right now, this defense is truly awful.

And you can look at that Jets game last week. And you can see if you squint, if you squint really hard. you could see how that game is much closer. Like the Jets just consistently give points away, like truly give touchdowns away. And so if you get beyond sort of the variance plays, all of a sudden it's a different game and this Cowboys team is really defensively so freaking bad.

I like Bryce in a shootout. I just do. I think Bryce might be psychotic. Like the way he is, just unconscious about throwing the ball down the field. They were down 17-0. And then at one point, like, he had thrown a pick, then he had thrown a pass, it hit a camera guy in the head. He's just laughing about it. Like, he's playing, I think, as well as he can play. And I really like Canales as a coach. So we like the Panthers, but it's not going to be our brass balls

better the week, because we don't like the number as much as least the one that we can share with our listeners and our viewers. However, the LA Chargers are four-point favorites at the Miami Dolphins. This is going to be our brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. Before we came on the air, we were talking about this, and you had one question. Are we stepping in it?

and I completely think we are. I was nervous about this one on Wednesday afternoon because the move had been against us. We talked about it on Tuesday and both like the chargers. The move had the line had dropped from four and a half to four. That's where I actually bet it. Over the past 24 hours in a lot of places outside of Hard Rock, it's moved back up to four and a half.

So I feel, you know, a little bit better that we're on the, LA Chargers right now. But man, we totally could be stepping in it because we're circumstantially betting the same scenario that we bet two weeks ago when the charges were going across the country and playing a team that is significantly worse on the East Coast where they're short road favorites. Yeah. Once again, if you think back to that game, think of all the things that had to go wrong for you

not to cover that number. So it's like my, from what I heard and look at this, it's probably just the fact, again, it's Tua at home. So like when you really dive into it, too at home, it's just different. And this is, tends to be the spot the professionals do back and because he does win and play really well at home. But I thought this was really about the travel and maybe because people are like, well, the charges are so banged up.

And it is a brutal travel right going from L.A. to Florida. but, you know, diving at Herbert's numbers, he's actually done pretty well in his exact spot. He's 13 and 6 against the spread in his career when he goes and plays in East Coast games. So, you know, he tends to not get frazzled in that way. And early in the year, so September and October in his career when he goes east, he's 12 and 6 against the spread. So he's done well traveling. I will say this. There are some damning steps about Herbert.

And it's like, again, non-ball-noburn. will put him in their top five, which is like the laziest take ever, putting Herbert in your top five quarterbacks. When you dive into how bad he's been in these one score games, it is alarming. This is a one-score game line. Like that's what this number is. So, you know, the last three seasons, the charges of the team, one in ten when it's a one-score game. This year, they're one-on-one, which is good. But last year, so 2023 and 24, Herbert was 0-9. Herbert, 0-9, straight. up in one score games. That's as a quarterback, that's a damest dad.

That's you. Like, you can try, people can put blame and always make up excuses. But it's like, that just shows at the end of these games, if he's not blowing these teams out, we're dead on this bet. That's the fear, Chad. So I'm still on it. I still like this spot. I think defensively, this is a great bounce back spot for this Chargers team matchup wise.

And we said the worry for us with this Chargers team is how they're going to handle a team with a good pass rush. Miami doesn't have that and they don't have a good secondary either, which I think we're able to pass the ball on. Even without his running backs, something about a push the ball downfield. So I'm with you like this, because we were just so much dog bettors and we're always looking for opportunities about home dogs. But this one to me just feels like a little of too much of adjustment by the books. Still think this number should be five and a half six. They've downgraded this team way too much in my opinion. this. So I do think it's a nice buy a low spot on this Chargers team. And like we said,

the fact that all this professional money is coming on Miami and it looks like public money, like you're looking at the splits at a lot of different websites. I don't know. It makes me feel pretty good that we're on the side that no one loves in this Chargers team, which just going back just two weeks ago, they were the best team in football. So I don't know. It's hard for me to get out of this one, Chad, because I just, I like the number a lot. I love this matchup for this Chargers team, they usually dominate beat up on bad teams. And I just think that Giants game was a one-off, just so much bad luck. And you saw last week, once again, a ton of bad luck against Washington, too much overreaction to them getting blown out 27 to 10. Like we said, that number is just not true.

We both watched that game from start to finish. That score does not indicate what that game was. Great matchup for the Chargers. The reasons why it's different than going into New York against the Desperate Giants team is, number one, two, it doesn't scramble the way Jackson Dart does. And that was a huge factor in that game. Number two, the dolphins have no choice but to play zone in coverage. Justin Herbert eats up zone coverage. Number three, they're secondary in addition to having to play zone. 27th in average depth of target allowed more than nine yards.

per play and average depth of target, 25th in yards per attempt allowed their bottom five in just about every coverage category. Meanwhile, Miami, we talked about the Chargers O line and struggling against pass rush. The Dolphins defensive line is 28th in pressure, defense total, is 28th in pressure rate and bottom 10 in total pressure. So the things that have been challenging for the Chargers are not necessarily, if you look at the numbers, challenges in this game, different teams, different situation. If you're saying he's 0 and 9 in one score games, the other day you brought up betting the alt lines on a couple games, maybe we should just take a piece of the alt line on this and like see if we're

going, you know, Chargers minus eight and give him. it over one score. It's more like if this is a if they're up 14 the fourth I'll feel confident if we're up 10 in the fourth our bet is we're dead we're dead so that that's like really what I was bringing up it's just like we like you said you got to have them roll I don't I love the all lines in this I'm with you on it so I'm I'm on the all lines in this game but it's just we need the we need the we need the charges to roll bounce back massively in this game because it's that's what like all the pros telling me why they like Miami they're just like this has back door written all over and it's like I looked at those numbers.

I go, maybe they're right. Maybe they're right about the charge's not closing these teams out. But historically, it just feels like the type of team the Chargers absolutely roll. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, huge news? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we, how do we, how do we, actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys.

I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. We were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say,

Hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas.

And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves. I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs.

I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nasree. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too.

Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers, why he got the ball like, after you go through a training camp with that Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball.

So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. There are times when the mind becomes a difficult place to live. This is David Eagleman with the Inner Cosmos podcast, and for Mental Health Awareness Month, we're dedicating a series to understanding the mind when it struggles. I'm joined by doctors, researchers, and those with lived experience. We'll talk with singer-songwriter Jewel about anxiety.

I started living in my car, and then my car got stolen. I was shoplifting. I was having panic attacks. I was agoraphobic. And making it through hardship. To be present is a learned skill, and it's hard to be present. We'll talk with John Nelson about clinical depression and the brain implant that saved his life. What I learned is that perceived.

procedure made me happy because I'm disease-free. And we'll talk with leading experts like Judd Brewer about anxiety and John Hirschfield about obsessive-compulsive disorder and the science of how the brain can change. This is a month of deeply personal and honest conversations about what happens when the brain goes off course and what we can do about it. Listen to Inner Cosmos on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. agency, the ability to know that we're the experts in our own body.

On the podcast cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women can show up fully and be heard. I wholeheartedly think, you know, you hit 30, you shouldn't have to share room with anybody. Mm-hmm. From navigating friendships and healing to setting boundaries and prioritizing your mental health. These are real, honest conversations. We don't always get to have out loud. totally unreasonable with different parts of life, right?

Like, oh, have all three meals and make sure you're mindful during all of them? Absolutely not. During one meal, I'm standing. I'm standing and handing my children food. Because healing, empowerment, and resilience aren't just ideas, their practices. And this Mental Health Awareness Month, there's no better time to pour back into yourself. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Seattle Jacksonville. Jacksonville is a one and a half point favorite. You say

the wise guys are on the Jags. I don't know that we'll make this into our contest, but it was a hot topic on Tuesday. You know, Justin, Julian Love, Devin Witherspoon, DeMarcus Lawrence, all missed practice again on Wednesday. I'm trying to figure out where the love is for the Jacks. Trevor Lawrence, we know, is a liability. This defense, as good as they've been, enforcing turnovers, there's going to be some aggression here. Sam Darnold has been amazing so far this season. This Seahawks defense can be as good as the Jaguars defense. I don't love betting the short number anyways.

I'm just trying to figure out where the love, like why there's so much professional love for the Jags. There shouldn't be that much professional love. It should be more of a debate. Yeah, I would say this Jacks team is helpful. year than Seattle. And that's it. I mean, there are other things, too.

Like this, this Jack's team probably still being a little underrated to the market. People are really loving the Seahawks team now because Sam Darnold had an incredible game against that Bucks team last week. So I get the confidence now. But, you know, even the trends you look at it, the Seahawks, the reason I like the books so much last week is, whatever it is McDonald's as a coach, he's bad at home. But on the road, they've been dominant when he's taken over his tenure. I think he's 12 and 6 against the spread on the road in his young career.

And just shows he gets his team up. He gets his defense up for these matchups on the road, which is a huge, huge deal. And I'm not shocked this is professional side, honestly, the Jaggs side, because the public will be looking at the Sealk team. Like I said, that was probably the best game of the week last week. Like everyone watched that Seahawks game, and they didn't think they lost that game, right? they think the bucks won it. They got Bakered.

So they pretty much are crediting this team with a win. On the flip side of the Jags, like we said, we feel very lucky that we got that cover in the win. No one, like, you don't want to do it either. No one wants to put their money back on the Trevor Lawrence experience. So I think that's part of it where it's like you're getting a unique situation where people just don't want to bet this team. They're undervalued, even though they're healthy. And you see it every week as bad as Trevor Lawrence has been. The defense has been getting better.

and that run game is a legit threat. Like the Jags can run the ball. Like I couldn't believe that he's had success against Spags because my view of that whole game with Spaggs is going to take away the run and make Trevor beat them. And it almost worked, right? Like if without that pick six,

that's once again a totally different game. So I'm with you. Like I'm scared to do it, but it's like I feel like it's the right side. I'm trying to have to rethink it. Take the Jags, take the number. This Seahawks team, like we loved early in the year, they'll get back to that once they get right and get healthy.

I just think this is too much to ask for a defense is missing so many key pieces that, you know, they still haven't hit that yet. Like the Jaggs have not hit their stride yet with Travis Hunter and BTJ and that, you know, passing attack. So we'll see. Like I get it. Like you don't want to do it.

I'm probably not going to force it in on Sunday. I just think it's really funny when all the pros are like, you have to bet this. And even I'm like, fuck, man, I don't want to bet the Jags again. So that lets me know that I probably should be on it. But it's like, I'm with you.

I feel like I survived something on Monday. And I don't know if I'm going to go right back to it. It's like we just got away with something. We shouldn't, you know, we shouldn't. It's the wrong way to think, though, but it's true. Cleveland at Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh is now five and a half. We talked about it the other day. You called it your lazy is that of the week.

Listen, if you were, if folks were listening on Tuesday and paying attention, you could have the Steelers at minus four. So it's moved up a point in a half. I mean, five to five, five to six is still pretty much a dead number. I wouldn't tell people you'd be crazy to bet it at five and a half. But if one of the philosophies of betting is you got to get the best of the number, you're not getting the best of the number since this thing was at four on Tuesday. I like it for the spot.

I like it because the Browns are coming back from the UK, a rookie playing in his first road game. It's a difficult place to play. You've got Alex Highsmith coming back. You've got Cam Hayward, T.J. Watt already there. Alex Highsmith being healthy to me is a game changer. Plus, Joey Porter, Jr. Like, the Steelers team is rested.

And the greatest advantage the Browns have is their defensive line and their pass rush. Aaron Rogers is getting the ball, getting rid of the ball. 2.5 seconds. fastest in the NFL. So if there's one thing that can mitigate a powerful pass rush from your defensive line, it's Aaron Rogers

who knows how to get rid of the ball quickly and, as you noted, takes a dive. So I'm more and more comfortable with the Steelers here. Yeah, and I was trying to find anything I can that gave me more confidence in the Steelers thing because everything we said is true, I feel like, on the field.

And I really wanted to dive into the trends here and like, shout out to our guy, Evan and Abram. He had the exact trend that was just, he had the exact trend I was looking for which is I feel like this is a Tomlin spot that we historically bet and that's why I was like is this just being lazy but it's an early buy week for a coach that

we see just he doesn't have that biweek letdown like that's the real thing of football guys just aren't up for that game after the biweek. Again I was grasping at straws because I was like I don't even know if there's real. I need to find some numbers that back it up and it is real. So when he has a biweek basically he's won and covered five.

straight Tomlin since 2020. You can say that's not that big of a deal, but to me it is. He's 8 and 0 since 2017, 6 and 2 against the spread. That's a big deal to me. This is a guy that gets his team up ready for these type of matchups, let alone when they're about to play a rookie quarterback coming off an international game. Bring your own game today. You ain't new to this no more now.

You know what I mean? Dominate this football game. And you can go even more into it. It's like, okay, how does he do early in the year? Because that, again, this is a very early by week. So when they have an early buy week under Tomlin in his career, he's 9-1 straight up, 7-3 against the spread. So when it's within the first eight games of the year, his one rate goes up even more. He's 9-1.

So a lot of that stuff I really like. I already liked it. When I saw those type of trends, it's like, okay, now this is an, it was already going to be in our money line run, Robin for favorites. Now it's a no-brainer smash spot for Tomlin. Like this is a Tomlin spot after a buy week. And like Chad said, I just feel like it was so lazy because it's like, who's betting Cleveland's side? And I could not believe it had gotten down to four. And, you know, we try to make sense of it.

What are these pros doing? And I always talk about you have to be wary of the professional head fake where they'll bet a line to get to a number they want. And they'll load up on that side. And that's what I feel like Chad's talking about. What happened? Like a lot of fours were popped up across the books all jumped up to five, five and a half after a lot of money came in. So I still like it at five and a half. I still think it's a fair number under six.

I just, again, their running attack is so good at Cleveland. That might be my only fear. Because you can run the ball against this Pittsburgh team, but I have to trust Tomlin to make adjustments during this biweek. And then they're getting these guys back healthy. It's like, what does Tomlin do in this biweek? He has to attack their biggest weakness, which is the run. Anyone has these numbers they can see.

They've been awful, I guess, the run through the first four weeks. So, yeah, Chad, I'm really happy to see he's done so well after these bi weeks and the trends back up our love for this Pittsburgh side because I'm not going to lie. There's a couple games this week. Like we keep talking on these favorites like the Chargers that's like these lines just feel off and they're priced wrong because last week the dogs had their week, right? Were they nine and five? Yeah, yeah. I get straight up, something crazy like that. So there's a couple lines that pop like this where I can't believe I'm on a chalk favorite like this once again.

But it's like it's just an undervalued line. it's still, to me, undervalage. Probably should be six, six and a half. I don't think a five and a half is a terrible number if you didn't miss the four. Simon, this is us growing. This is us evolving in the marketplace. We're not just going to blindly bet underdogs with good defenses. We're going to take a look at favorites every once in a while because that's what the market

dictates. You can't just bet whatever you used to bet. This thing is changing dramatically before our eyes. All right, Pittsburgh Steelers. The game that caused the biggest riff you and I have ever had on the history of the podcast, the New England Patriots, three-point favorites at the New Orleans Saints. This was your Simon says. When I disagreed and pushed back, you got very mad.

But I do realize that I listened back. We did this right after revisiting the Cardinals, DeBarre, from Sunday. And then we played your rant about the Cardinals from Sunday. So I think you might have been triggered. Kyler Murray's a loser. Gannon's a loser. That's a loser organization. Fold. Don't exist anymore tomorrow. I hope I wake up tomorrow. They said, yep, 31 teams NFL. Arizona literally folded overnight. Good. Let it be done. At Hard Rock, the line has shifted. The Saints are a flat. a lot of other places that's still three and a half. Clearly, the wise guys, as you noted in

sharp calls, are on the saints here. I'm a little more trepidacious. Like everyone keeps saying the saints are better. I think people are undervaluing the impact of Christian Gonzalez on the return for the Patriots. I get, it's like it's not going to be a good side. It's inflated against the Patriots because of what they did against the bills. Everyone was talking about Drake May as MVP, basically because there's no one left to talk about, right? Like you can't talk about Patrick Mahomes. You can't talk about Lamar Jackson. You can't talk about Josh Allen this week.

Hey, let's talk about Drake May. And so I totally, totally get it. I just don't know about these saints. Yeah, let the record show. I wasn't mad. I was annoyed. Listen, we're humans. We all have many flaws.

I have many flaws. And I am a crazy person. I have many blind spots. And that's all. We all blind spots. So peek behind the curtain. Chad asked me for my favorite bet this week before the show. Again, we're not live.

This is only me and Chad. I tell him I'm on the Saints. Chad could have just simply said, oh, I like the Patriots. Chad just speaks to going a minute rant about why the Patriots are the right side and how he makes the number five or five and a half. And I'm just like, this guy. As soon as you get on the air, I'm going to bear this guy. You can't read the room.

I'm a guy. He thinks it's there or anything. dude, I'm a dire Philly's fan. I'm staring at O and 2. I forgot about that. I'm just like, does this guy really doing this before the show? Because again, if it's on air,

check and talk for five minutes about the Patriots. I don't care. That's for you people. He's giving me his own private show of something I do not want to hear after being up 24 straight hours doing 14 games. So that's why I was just like annoyed. I don't know if I was mad.

I was more annoyed. But yeah, I'm still on the Saints. And my view of it was to get the number of four. move because I was just like, okay, the public will be on the Patriots here. Will the pros join me on the Saints side? Will they bet this down to three? I feel like Hard Rock is the only one that moved. Like if you want the three and a half, there are so many out there.

And I think I'll get back there. Like I talk to pros who are on the Patriots side. And yeah, Christian Gonzalez is a big deal. I don't think they realize that this Saints team is still better than people perceive. And, you know, even the numbers say this team is actually not as bad. Like defensively, I was shocked because that's when I want to look into. It's like, okay, their defense, yeah, they've had a soft schedule in some aspects, but they've actually played well.

Like that Bill's game, they didn't just lay down and die. Like they stopped the run. I feel like they were pretty solid in that game. And you look at it, they're ninth in EPA a game against their run. So they're holding, you know, in four out of the five games they play this year, they've held the number one running back to under 70 yards. Okay, that's something they're proven on, right? Their run defense is actually getting stops.

That's something I can hang my head on. The Spencer Rattler part, though, is the part I can't get over. I can't get over how good this kid's playing. For someone that I, Tully Buto's a joke. I was like, they're making the quarterback so they can tank and get a quarterback this season. And you look at the numbers and it's good. And like, even when Chris Gonzalez takes out the number one of a team,

that is a big deal. But they haven't really, like Alive, who we really respect, he was incredible Ohio State. He is their number one, but he's not their first. focal point of their offense. He's not a guy that forced speed in a lot of ways. And you look at Spencer Radler numbers. So he has six touchdowns and one interception

this season. So in the Saints history, this is crazy, they've never had a quarterback or they've had two quarterbacks through five games, throw for six touchdowns, one interception and throw for 70%. That was Drew Breeze in 2018. So

Spencer Rattler, Drew Brees. And Spencer Rattler in 2025. In 2025. So those are the two quarterbacks on that list in Saints history that have played that well to start a year. So it's like I got to give him his roses, Kellyn Moore, which like, again, I didn't think it was a huge loss for the Eagles for him to leave.

He obviously is a pretty gifted coach if he's turning that out with Spencer Rattler and the team they have. Like I just, I looked at those numbers, I couldn't believe it. Like the fact that he's being smart with the ball in his hand like that, because him being six touchdowns in one pick, I agree with people.

That's not jumping out of like, that's not amazing. That's not an approval numbers, but he's playing within the offense, and he's not the reason this team is losing. Like they have losses on the screen. You can't point to him. Like, sure, there's been times he missed throws, but it's like, once again, expectations for this team.

So I still think the general public doesn't realize this defense is actually all right for the Saints and Spencer Rellers playing at the same high level that Drake May is playing right now. And my only pause here is when you dive into the numbers, this is, once again, another variable spot. Brable does very well against bad teams, let alone teams with first or second year head coaches. So there are trends that are like I know pros who bet trends and that's there are trends they like that face to this Patriots team. So I just want people know this isn't all professional. I thought this was going to be all pro on the same side.

There are some that are back in Brable in this spot. But like I told them, I'll tell you, if you like the Patriots, you can get minus three right now. That's that's a Patriots number right there. To me, the Saints number, though, which is every book most likely in your state is three and a half. That to me is the confident smart side. The Patriots can win. They can cover this number. That's like a 30%, 35% chance.

Like you're betting into a really bad spot side at a bad number. This Saints team, I could be over my skis here back in them two weeks in a row, but it's just about the number. Just like last week, I felt that number should have been closer to three. It wasn't right. I mean, I think it peaked at two and a half. Same thing here. I think this Gamer should be closer to a pick. You're getting a hook on three and a half.

I'm never going to avoid this one. I like the Saints here. I like this match for this team in their defense. I always forget how emotionally invested you are in the Philadelphia Phillies. Yeah, I love them, man. Like, again, it's Eagle season, but I'm still, it's still in my mind, Philly season. Like, if the Eagles were two and three, yeah, it would suck, but it's like, their season to start until December anyway. This is, yeah, going down to October.

owe to it home, Chad. I was, I was hurting. I was hurting Tuesday morning. Not going to lie. Thank God for last night, Schwaber, man. I needed it. starters have been a major story. Uh-oh. Swarber going to send one way out of here. How far will it fly? My goodness. Kyle Swarber with a tape measure shot. That is one of the biggest bombs you will ever see. He was a season saver. last night. Yeah. We'll see what happens today. But, all right. So clearly you love the Saints here. Part of me just wants to bet the Patriots at minus three and then, and then put him in the contest and just see what happens and let it roll.

Put the Patriots in at minus three? No, put the Saints in. Oh, oh. I'd be willing, I'd be willing to sacrifice the bet and put the Saints in. just to see how this whole thing plays out. We might have to, though. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock, Bet. The bright lights of the big app will set the stage tonight for week six, Eagles versus Giants.

Check out these streaks from Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. You can find odds to bet on all of these streaks right now in the Hard Rock Bet app. The Giants have lost 11 in a row versus NFC opponents. Saquan Barkley has reached the end. owned in five straight road games. If you like those, you can bet on them with live odds right here in the Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. If you haven't tried, your first bet on Hard Rock bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets if you win.

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Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-888 admit it. In Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809 with it. gambling problem called 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. Tennessee at the Las Vegas Raiders. All right, look, I made a Chad's choice on Tuesday. It's down half a point since I made it Chad's choice. Brock Bowers did not practice yesterday.

Not great, not great, Jim. But this should be about the Raiders. letting Ashton Genti repeat the performance he had against the Bears, right? The Titans are 31st and run DVOA, 28th and EPA per rush, 29th in success rate against the rush. Like Chip Kelly, don't get freaking cute, man. Don't put the ball in Gino's hands. Don't try to do anything special.

Just give it to Genti. Let him score his touchdowns. Let him beat up on a Titans team that really should not be even on the same field as any NFL team. I know I'm exaggerating because it's the Raiders and really the Raiders are trash, but they do have offensive weapons.

And if they can just put them in the right hands, they should be able to win this game and win this game by margin. So I'm still in the Raiders. Still in Raiders and the professionals are coming on Tennessee's. Yeah, what is that about? They don't always win,

so I'm happy to join Chad and shop around. You can find minus three and a half, and I don't care for the suckers here. I saw the best, laziest stat of the week, which was there's been three rookie QBs come back down, 17 points in NFL history. They all lost the final game by like 20 points. Yeah, you know why? They're playing for bad teams.

And like this Titans team, what is this line? Honest to God, what is this line if the Titans lose that game 28 to 6 against the Carlin? The grades are so bad, I don't think it crosses six. I think at peak it would get up to minus six. Right. But so then to me, we're still getting two points of value. But to me, that's just a glaring statue of just how these young quarterbacks, they can have that moment, that comeback thing.

But Chad just nailed it. They're on really bad teams and that most usually don't know how to handle winning. So, like, you have this insanely high emotional win on the road. You fly home. vibes are the highest of high. Now you're flying again to Vegas to go play this matchup against a Raiders team that is veteran across the board and insanely desperate. Like Pete Carroll, if he gets fired, he might end up being our next president. What is he, 75?

He's right around the perfect age. So it's, it's scary. Like, we're both the same boat of like holding our nose, taking this side. And we know exactly what we're doing here with this Raiders team that the only thing I can burn us is Gina. Because Gentian, he should rush for 150 here. You just avoid Simmons in the middle. You can run for whatever you want against this team. And you look on the flip side, like we talked, the same reason we loved the Raiders against the Bears.

Max Crosby against Bad O'Lines, when he can pick the guy he can go against. Oh, my God. Right. It's like, it's not even fair. And I love to. You see, you know, all these teams reached out to try to get him off the Raiders. If the Raiders were a smart organization, you should move him on. You should let this reward this man who's so great.

get three first, whatever you can get from, and let him move on and go win a championship. Because it is, you watch him every Sunday. He's just the best. And it's such a waste here with the Raiders, but we still got him here, and we still have a great match with him. So I know, Chad,

I can't believe the amount of professional money that I've moved this number down, especially that, you know, we have four here at Hard Rock. The minus three and a half is just egregious to me. It's stupid. Yeah, shop around, get that number if you can. I just, I can't believe people,

and professionals alike are overacting this much to a Tennessee win. you win, which they view as something that can be going to spark this team. Historical data shows this is not that moment. This is usually when they fall off a cliff the following game. Also, historical data tells you that when you're betting a home team after a blowout, there's also going to be deflation in the line. And that's when you want to bet on that team. So like, if we talk about buy low and sell high, like this is when you sell the Titans and this is when you buy the Raiders. We hope on the Raiders part. We don't know if this is rock bottom yet,

Because if they lose the same. We assume. We assume. Caleb Williams called Max Crosby the best football player he's ever played against. That's fair. Tell you that. All right. I was called Aaron Donald, so I get it.

Yeah, right. San Francisco at Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay minus three. We talked about this in Sharp calls. I want to spend a minute on it because like Brock Purdy, Juan Jennings, Ricky Pirsall, again, none of them practiced on Wednesday. Also, even scarier. Mack Jones was limited. I know.

So, like. What is happening? Why is the entire Wise Guy community? Forget about coming in on Tennessee. Why the Niners? What is happening here? To me, this is solely about fading the box and just thinking they can't continue to win every game by a field goal in the final seconds, literally the final seconds. Agree.

That's the only reason. And maybe there's some other injuries for the box in the defensive backfield. but if Mac Jones, who's already limited physically, is now limited because of injuries, and he's your quarterback, I don't know, man. Like, what are people seeing here? Bizarro, and I was so excited to, I was like, oh, my God, they're going to give us two and a half in our contest, and we can, we'll get the bucks here. They'll announce purdy's out and Max playing, and maybe this line will run up to four,

four and a half, and we have an amazing number. It's three and a half. So it's like, I don't even know if we're even having our contest either, which, sucks. Yeah. Which could be good for me, though, because I probably should avoid this Bucks team because there's something I'm not seeing here. I mean, I have a total blind spot.

And I think what you said is part of it where it's like Baker is hit on black now nine straight times. And he's going to go hit it again. Like, I loved his interview this week. I think he's talking about how like guys will say he has moxie now or before he was just a cocky ass. Yeah, right. That's what winning does.

Where it's like, yeah, Baker, that's part of it. But there's also part of it. You were kind of a douche. And now, like, you do have the cool moxie of like, you know, you're not some young kid. You're a growing ass man, cursing dudes out in the stands. I kind of love it. But then when you were 22, it just looked, it felt weird. So I don't know.

I'm too close to it, I think. And I'm just in love with this team. And I've obviously bet into this. Like, I'm all in on this three. It's like, and I've got guys telling me not to do it. And it's like, I got to touch the hot stove. I can't help it here. This is, the number doesn't make sense.

Because once again, if Purdy is out, they're number one and number two receivers are out again. you're betting on lightning striking twice with this this four-in-in-hires team. Like what happened that Rams game felt so incredibly flukish. Yeah, the Niners. The Niners didn't win that game. Right. The Rams lost that game.

And even the cover where it's like, you're betting on Mack Jones again to be 20 of 23 passing and not the punt until midway through the fourth quarter. Like I just feel like the ask is way too big if you're back in this four-in-hires team. So like I said, people are going to be careful. I clearly have a blind split. about here. I maybe talk to two other really smart groups that are on this buck side,

but they're like me. They're scratch our heads a little bit and like, I don't know. Are we idiotic here? Like this feels like a gift getting minus three in a buck's team that with all their injuries they do have in their secondary, there's ways to combat that with this style of defense they play. I know it didn't show up obviously against the Seahawks, but I don't know. Once like I said, I just, I think it's a big difference with team Sam Darnold and the healthy receiving core the Seahawks had and Mack Jones. here with a banged-up 49ers team. So very, very unique game.

I'm excited to talk about it more on Sunday because we'll have a lot more info. Like right now, we just don't know. Where I'm going off right now, what I know, which is Purdy hasn't practiced in two days, the wire receivers haven't practiced in two days. If they practice today, which they need to do most likely to play in this game,

we will have more info. And this number could easily drop to bucks two and a half. And then I'll talk more about the composition on that on Sunday. I'm excited for Sunday because I feel like we're already we've got like five teams right now that I think five games that we feel will be in contention. The bucks are one of them. And we've got more to come. Can I talk about the Colts game?

I don't know if you have that on your thing. Just two seconds on the Colts. I didn't put it on the list because the numbers move so much. The numbers now it's seven. So Colts are minus seven, you know, against the Cardinals. Just to set it up, they were five or five and a half. when we talked about it on Sunday. I bet into the Colts when that number was lower.

I haven't brought it up because the numbers move so much. So go ahead. Yeah, it is at minus 7, minus 115 now at Hard Rock. So like Chad said, I think that's based off the Cali-Marie news, right? He's not practicing, like we said. That's why I wanted to be on this number early. Yeah.

Because it's like, okay, he could have, I know it sounds stupid, he could have got a concussion from that snap of the football. Or he really does have a foot injury. We don't know, but we do know is he's not practicing. seen that's a big deal and I wanted to look at what are the trends of teams like the cardinals that are in this unique spot that they lost three straight games on a last field a last second field goal like to me that's something that always jumps out to me where it's like

there are going to be numbers the backup and trends the backup teams that are in this spot because they are humans and like I say all the time history does repeat itself with human you can't the game may change, the personalities may change. At its core, it's still people living real lives that are affected by wins and losses. And you dive into this one since 2013, teams that have lost three straight by three points or less, they're one in eight and their following game straight up, two and seven against the spread. So again, this number has to do with people. I still think it's worth grabbing the seven if you can, just in case it is Berset. This will instantly jump to seven and a half. And then if you hadn't missed it, yes, you can talk herself in a taking that

Cardinals, but I still think this is a Colts line. Like we tell Colts are a big is shit. They're big, offensive line wise, defensive line wise. And I just matchup wise, if I was going to be on Kyler, it's like, okay, this is a Kyler game because he is a dog on the road. Always tends to be much better than at home as a favorite, just historically against the spread. But when I saw that trend, it feels real to me that teams have hit their low point. And then you have to add in now the time something to do with the chance we have a coach getting into physical altercations with players on the sideline and having a talk in front of the team and pay 100 100k fine and all those players they'd be like yeah it's cool we forgive coach

we're moving on where you know in the back of their mind they're like fuck this guy I cannot wait to be him to be fired like all they ever video in urban mire this was the kicker urban mire kicked the yeah lost the whole team lost the whole team so they can say what they want on camera play it good i mean i just felt like that was like you again they don't have an owner of that team or they would have fired the coach after that incident it's just

you have to do something there so yeah i i just wanted to bring that up because i saw that trend i was like oh my god this is exactly what i thought this is why i wanted to be on the colts early and yeah my hate was right early on the sunday the five five and a half was the right read and um we'll be interesting if calorie does get cleared

if this does drop below seven i think this is what the line will be regardless if Kyler gets clear to come back. I just don't see dipping below 7 again. Cincinnati at Green Bay, I just want to touch on it for a second because after we talked about liking Green Bay on Tuesday, we won't put this in the contest, but as soon as maybe, right, as soon as we were done recording on Tuesday, the Bengals traded for Joe Flacco and Zach Taylor has announced that he will be starting and the line moved to 14 and a half. Yeah. So I bet the Packers at 14 for a little taste, not too much. But I don't think anything changes for me. Is Joe Flacco going to be better at getting the ball to Jamar Chase?

More importantly, is Joe Flacco going to play middle linebacker and stop Josh Jacobs from running after 10 days of Matt LaFleur just being so mad that his running game isn't doing anything? So this Bengals team isn't going to be saved by Joe Flacco walking through that door. No, but it is shocking. A lot of trends do love the Bengals, but it's like this computer doesn't understand what this team is. I don't care what's happened to the last 30 years. You have to play this exact spot. This is very unique.

And there's actually some good trends too that point to LaFleur after biweeks, playing against very bad teams, especially early bioweaks near where it's all about time. It's a big deal, right? healthy, rested against a team that they've just been running through it for five straight weeks now. And now they're on the road again as a double-digit dog. And the Flacco trade just bizarre a world. I don't know if they look at the circle data, but you're grabbing a quarterback that needs protection. And now he's going from mid-tier, maybe bottom 20 protection in the Browns to bottom 32, number 31 and pass blocking. So nightmare, nightmare, nightmare.

scenario. I mean, as a hater as a fan, I mean, it would be the greatest thing ever. Joe Flacco beats the Green Bay Packers twice on two bottom five teams in NFL. It would be legendary, but this isn't a fairy tale. This isn't a made-up world. This

Bengals team is so much worse than that Browns team, which is crazy to think and say, because I know the books don't reflect that, right? They still have, the Bengals is a better favorite to win this division in this Browns team, but my model just hates this Bengals team, and I have this at 15 and a half. So I'm still on Green Bay, but my God, my God, I can't believe this is how bad it is for this Bengals team.

That this number is what it is on against a Green Bay team that I want to say they're not warranted to be this big of a favorite. Like they have their own issues, right? They got injuries. They're not in rhythm offensively, but that just shows how bad this Bengals team. They should just absolutely get rolled here by Green Bay. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news.

What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts.

We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. the four Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down?

Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. What's up, fam? This Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. podcast point game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed.

And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup,

he has to really guard guys like Nasree. he has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night bases on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying.

He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. There are times when the mind becomes a difficult place to live. This is David Eagleman with the Inner Cosmos podcast,

and for Mental Health Awareness Month, we're dedicating a series to understanding the mind when it struggles. I'm joined by doctors, researchers, and those with lived experience. We'll talk with singer-songwriter Jewel about anxiety. I started living in my car, and then my car got stolen. I was shoplifting. I was having panic attacks. I was agoraphobic.

And making it through hardship. To be present is a learned skill. And it's hard to be present. We'll talk with John Nelson about clinical depression and the brain implant that saved his life. What I learned is that procedure made me happy because I'm disease-free. And we'll talk with leading experts

like Judd Brewer about anxiety and John Hirschfield about obsessive-compulsive disorder and the science of how, the brain can change. This is a month of deeply personal and honest conversations about what happens when the brain goes off course and what we can do about it. Listen to Inner Cosmos on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This week on Crimless, we're joined by our first ever guest. Sorry, our first ever human guest. I don't think I could be in the same room with Shamrock the parrot. I'd be too nervous.

That's right. The very funny Will Ferrell joins Rory Scovel and me, Josh Dean, for an episode dedicated to the many crimes committed by people also named Will Ferrell. They called to his fellow officer for the nippers. What are the nippers? Very good question. No, I was thinking, would that be a good name for like a salad dressing? Simple assault. And it's a play on word, salt? Maybe not.

I say we invest and we see. There's only one way to know. This did not amuse the cops. By the way, normally the cops are amused, but this did not abuse the cops. Will even comes clean about some of his own crimes. I didn't get caught. You know why? If you don't want to be suspected of anything, you whistle as you walk. Listen to crime lists on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

All right. I want to get to the primetime games because we actually liked all of them and we had a good conversation. I think the most challenging one is Detroit at Kansas City. Kansas City, you can get it at 2 at Hard Rock. It's a two and a half in a lot of places. We were wondering why this line was moving towards the Chiefs when something like 80% of the bets were on the Lions. It told us that the Wise guys really like the Chiefs, told us that the books were taking a stand on the Chiefs.

We do know at this point, Terry and Arnold, cornerback, Taylor Decker, tackle, Khalif Raymond, receiver, Kirby Joseph, safety, Amon Ross St. Brown, wide receiver for the Lions. They all missed practice on Wednesday. So there are a lot of injuries, a lot of people playing through pain that normally they would be able to do,

but it's so bad they can't even practice this week. That will probably have an impact on the game. I don't know that that's why the line is moving because it kind of started moving before that. It just feels like people are still underest, the Chiefs, they're overestimating the Lions, like the Chief's offense isn't as bad as people thought it was going to be. The Lions' offense, they're going on grass, a little banged up.

I don't mind being on the Chiefs here. I kind of like it. I bet the Chiefs at minus two. Yeah. Honestly, I do mind it. I feel sick to my stomach because I was just trying to find a reason to be under Troy, and I just haven't. I'm on the Chiefs with Chad.

I probably, we'll talk so they might end up in our contest, but it's all. Like I think it will. I think it's going to be the rock and the hard place. And I think we're going to convince ourselves. We probably will. I just, I can't get over how much love there is professionally to this chief side. And, you know, I run through all the trends. I mean, we know a lot of fans of the show know him because we, we love getting up this Mahomes one. Mahomes minus three or less. So he's an underdog or, you know, less than a field goal, 29, 12, and 1 in his career against the spread. So like again, this is why me and chat. I love betting Mahomes in this exact spot.

We've made a lot of money over his entire career in the stock spot. So his opponent is coming off a win on more than 10 points. So again, same thing. They had a huge win Detroit. Now they're playing against Mahomes, who's less than three points. He's 15 and four in his career in this exact spot against the spread. All right, let's dive into even more. Mahomes, when he's playing against a team that's covering 80% through five games,

he's four and one against the spread, three and no straight up, winning by over nine points per game. So when he's playing against juggernauts, Mahomes in his career showed up in his exact spot. So once again, I want to paint a picture of why people are like, sure shocked these pros are betting it.

The football geeks and nerds already liked this spot for the Chiefs, but then you have all these trends that keep showing how of a spot this is for this Chief's team. And specifically on Mahomom, So Mahomes, you know, he's faced great offense in his career, right? This is a team that's lying. We're scoring more than 30 points per game. This has happened five times in his career, Mahomes.

He's 5-0 straight up against those teams, winning those games by almost 10 points. When he's, you know, in prime time, which this is a prime time game for Mahomes, 19 and 6 straight up in this exact spot, primetime game at home. So can't avoid it. I wanted to find reasons the like this Detroit team. I think this is just the classic case of they are very, barely talented offensively. They have injuries to their defense.

Can they out scheme Spags here and, you know, be the juggernaut they are? I don't know if they can. Like this just feels like the type of game where Spag is going to take away, whatever their strength is, that these other defense they played, these are bad teams. I mean, you saw a little bit with the Browns. The Browns were taking away what they want to do,

which is run the ball and make golf beat you. I think that spaggs is. is going to do. I mean, Chad just said, Amon-Stay Brown, that's a huge deal if he's banged up in might miss this game. He is the safety valve of all safety of balance for golf. Like, anytime they need a third down, a curl

route or a slant, and they let Amman Rond pick, it's unguaritable. The man wins, I feel like, every time on third down, it's just an auto play. And if he doesn't win it, he's one yard short and a fourth down. They go for it anyway. So, yeah, I can't believe it. It's like, Detroit as a dog here, I cannot believe I'm not

on that side, but you got to stick with us people you got to take the chiefs here this is the chief spot a chiefs number long term we win this one so again might not work here that's there's no guaranteed bet there's no 100% bet but it's like you're playing the long term game you have to back mohams in this spot he just plays really well in these big moments when people don't believe in them let alone the general public like the fact that it's still you know 75% of the money and the tickets on this Detroit team And there's one book that I've moved the Chiefs back to one and a half. You can go grab, I just don't know if the spread is going to matter.

Like the books are telling us, this ain't going to be under three. Like, this is going to be a field goal or more game. The Chiefs win here. So I don't know how they're going to get there. Late win field goal by Mahomes. But I love them to bounce back here after that loss they had against the Jaguars. And once again, we're playing the number. This is this was three and a half.

Then no matter what, I had to be on Detroit. But if it was three or less, I'm going to back Mahomes in this exact spot. Like, we went against them here. early in the year when the Eagles were a favorite against the Chiefs, that was different. They were banged up than they had a lot of pieces missing. I think with Worthy Back, you've seen their offense.

Just take that next step they needed with him there. They just opens things up. So, yeah, I really like this match for this Chief's offense against the defense of Detroit. And defensively, I think Spag is going to get his best, this Detroit team that he's going to be able to slow it down. There's no way they're going to get more than 30 points. They're not going to be what they've been at home, which is this indoor juggernaut. This is outdoors, like Chad said, on grass.

they're not cutting that grass this week they're going to water before the game as well it ain't going to be that turf like they're used to so yeah I'm people can tell I'm starting to really fall in love with this chief so I'm just trying to be patient here because I know anything can happen these type of matchups with two great teams yeah the way

we're talking about it belies how we feel deep down about this game which is real fear real trepidation I think we're we're somewhat leaning into how the books are telling us they think this game is going to go because they

haven't moved it at all. I thought by now the chiefs would be an underdog. On Sunday night, we started talking like, this line's going to move. It's going to be the chiefs. And it hasn't. It's gone in the complete opposite direction, even though all of the money, all of the tickets, I mean, are coming in on Detroit right now. It just tells you that there's so much wise guy resistance. on this Chief's team. So it took me until yesterday to bet it. I bet it too because as confident as we sound talking about this game, it's still going to be a nightmare to watch

and it's going to keep us up late. And I bet it's going to be in our contest because it's going to come down to this and the Saints and the Box and we're going to be like, oh, my God, what are we going to do? Last game I want to talk about. Chicago at Washington, this game has moved down to four. It was at four and a half. Our comment section, lighting up on this one.

A lot of people loving the commanders. I'm here for it. So many people got opinions. The bears are the play. I bet the bears at four and a half. I know you kind of feel the same way, but don't love it. I don't see this getting into our contest compared to the other ones that we have. but I think the commander is getting too much love for the way they beat up on the Chargers

and Jaden Daniels coming back and it's overinflating this line. It's Tyreek Stevenson's redemption game. Yeah, it's just another game I feel like I have a total blind spot too because it's way off my model number which again usually... Meaning what? Meaning... Like I had this at three. So like, yeah.

Why are we not hammering the bears at plus four and a half? and that's my fear where it's like I always said they're not here to give away free one of these sports books and that's just a very bizarre number where everyone's in agreeance with the chat like who that's I couldn't believe there's so many professionals that like this commander's side it's like what do you like what is the matchup here that makes a four and a half point favorite over this bear's team I just I can't find it and it feels like people are grasping at straws to try to make it sound as if it is a good number where it's like you're just playing the number because you know it's what the book is

going to need. The book is going to need the commanders here. The public dog is going to be this Bears team. I have no doubt about it, but it's like, I think the public is right. I think this is too inflated. I can't find trends at point to love in this Washington team. You know, the bears, yes, they're not as good, I guess you could say as commanders. Here we are through five weeks, but like I view them as not that different of teams. Like skill-wise, you know, Jane Daniels had an incredible season last year. I still told you, I still have Caleb as like basically the same guy. I still think he's graded just as high. And through five weeks, I think he's played really well in this offense. So he's played amazing.

So I just don't know what to do with this one. It's like, I want to be on the Bears, but 15 years of being a professional sports better just has the alarms going off here of being like, man, this is a weird line there's i just i'm glad it came down like seeing it now for like a hard rock yeah thank god like at least some professionals are joining us on this bear side because i can tell you this early in the week it was all commander's money it was all love for this commander's team and i'm with chat i just totally think people are box score watching that chargers game and they're just overrating this team and um like chet said through a quarter and a half daniels looked totally uncomfortable and didn't look right that knee brace now once you got in rhythm yeah it's you saw jane dan was one of the more deadly

assers downfield. We were dunzo. So to me, I'll be patient here. Like if Terry McLaren gets cleared, if they're all good to go offensively, they're fully healthy, okay, maybe we won't have this contest, but I think we can have a real discussion Sunday if this is one of the five we want to get in here because I do like the number. I like the four and a half. I bet the four and a half.

My just weary here is just, what am I missing? This feels too good to be true. Just a bizarre number. Like, again, they would have got the same amount of action on this Bears team of three and a half and they did a four and a half i don't know why they gave us a free point there it's that's the part i can't get over it's just it's a dumb line by the books and the books don't make dumb lines like that like they're not idiots this is billion dollar companies so really really bizarre line you could once again you can still get a four and a half i can't believe it but you can still get it

it's on the list for sunday simon on the list we got the panthers we got the chargers we got the Steelers, we got the Saints, we got the Raiders, the Bucks, the Chiefs, and the Bears. So a healthy number for Sunday. I think I'm looking at seven, eight games for Sunday, which is a good conversation. I think there's four that we feel pretty good about, and then it's going to be a rock and a hard place conversation for the rest, but I'm excited for it. I'm here for it. A lot of favorites, a lot of favorites.

Should we do one second, one second survivor, Green Bay, Survivor, Green Bay. Well, that's what I was going to say. Okay, great. Simon, it's time for you to give us your biggest bets of the week. Pull up those pants and be a man. I mean, ATS, this week's going to be a little tough people, because I'm kind of getting lazy this week because we did so well ATS last week. I tend to just go with easy favorites and pair them together.

They're like the Rams, I love that number. But I rather just take their money line and pair with, say, the Eagles, or we just talk about we're like the Vegas. We like the chargers. Like there's a lot of teams I'm just pairing money lines with this week. So I would say it's different than most weeks. If we're looking at, my biggest bets, I mean, I'm on Carolina, three and a half,

on the Saints, three and a half. Took positions on Pittsburgh. Still would, I guess, the five and a half. But obviously I feel much better when it was in the fours. And I just know I'm going to get there in the chiefs. The chiefs are probably going to be one of my bigger bets. So, yeah, against the spread, those will probably be my bigger ones. That's why I feel like the chiefs will end up being in the contest

because we're both talking ourselves into how confident we feel about this, which is a frightening. Always scary. Frightening scenario. All right, let's do a round robin, underdog, parlay. Your dog, your dog. I would do Panthers. Yeah.

I would do Saints. Yeah. I would do Bears. Love it. Got to do Detroit just in case. Oh, yeah. Detroit. Just the emotional right.

Saints, Panthers, Bears, Bears, Detroit. Who's our fifth? I mean, it's kind of. of boring, but let's throw Seahawks in. They're plus 100 right now. That's what I thought. Okay. Moneyline underdog round robin, Saints, Panthers, Bears, Seahawks, and Detroit. Our Moneyline, Round Robin, favorite favorite. Let's do six this week because I have a lot of favorite chalk. I like to win outright. Oh, exciting. Raiders. Raiders. If you hear this in time, you can throw the Eagles in there. I just don't think enough people hear this in time.

Pittsburgh, we talked about Tomlin, 9 and 0 in this exact spot, or 9-1 straight up in this exact spot. Colts, love it. Rams, McVeigh, Stafford, 16 and 0 as a favorite of six points or more until last week.

So you expect to bounce back, right? So I have no problem going to have the Rams here against the Ravens on the month. line throwing it around Robin already gave out Vegas right Chad you said that one yep you can I wouldn't do the money line on Green Bay but like the alt line six and a half if you want take it down that's probably minus 500 I wouldn't mind throwing that in as the sixth leg and the chargers again that's why I want to do six seven legs this week I just yep one of these favorites sure they're going to lose but I wouldn't be

shocked all seven these guys went like last week was really the week of the underdogs I think this week is going to be super chalky on the money line for favorites. We said Survivor, let me repeat that, actually. Raiders, for the favorite parley, Raiders, Eagles, Steelers, Colts, Chargers, and maybe throw in the Packers' Altline minus 6. Survivor, we just said Packers. Yeah. Sharp versus Square.

Let's see. Last week, I had the Jets, you had the Saints. you won, I lost. Who would you like to do this week, Simon? I got to go Chiefs, I guess. That's what I thought. I feel like I really need to take a stand on that one. Just like last week with the Saints, it's like I, I'm betting it big.

I might as well make it my sharper square. I think I'm going to take Carolina. Okay, plus three. Yeah, I'll take them plus three. But we're in. We're in and I like it more and more than more that we talk about it. All right. We're going to be back on Sunday.

This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume, podcast network. We will be back. Sharper Square, YouTube, Sunday morning, you're going to eavesdrop on a very intimate conversation between me and Simon. We're going to panic. We're going to make human decisions. We're going to regret the rest of the day and probably Monday, too. We will be back Sharper Square Sunday at 7.30 p.m. Eastern to recap all that. Misery.

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