The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 7 Bets: Cowboys-Commanders, Colts-Chargers, Bucs-Lions, Patriots-Titans, Saints-Bears and more

Episode Date: October 16, 2025

Another doubleheader on Monday Night Football really boils the potato of NFL betting expert Chad Millman, but he powers through his rage to join professional sports gambler Simon Hunter as they narrow down more best bets for NFL Week 7. They dive into their favorite NFL matchups across the board, leading up to their final five against the spread bets for their weekly NFL pick 'em pool contest. We also have Simon's weekly Sharp Calls segment, where Simon recaps the phone calls he's received from fellow professional gamblers responding to our Tuesday show. NFL betting picks and predictions provided today include Sunday Night Football between the Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers, Drake Maye and the New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts vs. LA Chargers, the Las Vegas Raiders vs. Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns, and of course MVP candidate Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys vs. Jayden Daniels’ Washington Commanders. Picks and predictions for NFL Week 7 also include our Round Robin parlays, over/under picks, Simon's biggest bets of the week, moneyline favorites and so much more. #Volume 0:03:00 - START 0:06:00 - SHARP CALLS 0:09:15 - RAIDERS-CHIEFS 0:12:15 - DOLPHINS-BROWNS 0:16:00 - SAINTS-BEARS 0:27:50 - EAGLES-VIKINGS 0:34:30 - PANTHERS-JETS 0:36:20 - PATRIOTS-TITANS 0:39:50 - COLTS-CHARGERS 0:44:15 - GIANTS-BRONCOS 0:45:40 - COMMANDERS-COWBOYS 0:54:00 - FALCONS-NINERS SNF 0:58:15 - BUCCANEERS-LIONS MNF 1:03:00 - TEXANS-SEAHAWKS MNF  1:07:00 - SIMON'S BIGGEST BETS  1:08:00 - ROUND ROBIN PARLAYS & MORE  -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the ice.

Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The story I've told myself can then shape my behavior, and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast Deeply Well with Debbie Brown if you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole. This podcast is for you to hear more. Listen to Deeply Well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

If you're watching the latest season of the Real Housewives of Atlanta, you already know there's a lot to break down. Gorsha accusing Kelly of sleeping with a merry man. They holding Kay Michelle back from fighting Drew. Pinky has financial issues. On the podcast, Reality with the King, I, Carlos King, recap the biggest moments from your favorite reality shows, including the Real House Wise franchise. the drama, the alliances, and the T, everybody's talking about. To hear this and more, listen to Reality with the King on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the volume podcast network.

This is the betting show. It makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman and I am joined by my BFF, my companion. my confidre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, what's up, brother? Listen, man, a lot of concerns about your hair. And as anyone who can see, anyone who can see

is watching this on YouTube right now, like you are filling the entire frame, my brother. You are flowing. You have, as the kids say, lettuce. But to me, this is like our playoff beard. beard right now. No haircuts for you. You cannot even think about it. You cannot be tempted. Who is the biblical guy with the hair? Samson? You're Samson right now and you cannot get a cut. For the record, I'm getting a haircut on Saturday. I got to keep it tight. You know I can't.

I can't live without. I'm too vain to let it go. No, I can't wait. It's much needed. but like we said, I'm very superstitious. I will, if we get winning, that's all that matters. So, yeah, it's my, me being uncomfortable in having hair that's just constantly in my eyes. It's annoying, but it's worth it. If we get those Ws and I keep making money, Chad. Man bun, Simon.

That's, that's, that's what we are going for. It'd be a mullet before it becomes a man, but I promise to the people that I'd cut the edges long before. Oh, man. Well, if we keep winning, I'd like to see that too. If you're making promises, you're going to have to deliver. This is our Thursday week seven episode. We're going to narrow down the options on our quest to find five picks.

We agree on for this week. We're inching our way ever close. A reminder, I know we've been saying this, but we're getting so close. It's just a little bit of logistics on the back end, but we are so close to announcing the return of the free-to-play five picks a week. pick them contest against the spread thanks to our benevolent benevolent sponsors it hard rock bet all credit to them another reminder watch on YouTube Apple pods listen Spotify listen subscribe all right let's get into this thing every week we're

gonna give out our picks every week the professional betters the wise guys they're gonna have opinions about what we talk about on Tuesday it's a given normally they don't like what we're saying and we're gonna get some criticism we're going to get some feedback we're going to get some push back they'll call simon they'll tell him what they think as usual on thursdays every week it's time for sharp call answer this far and it feels like we only get a little disagreement but this week we can start with the things that uh maybe we're just on the other side of a lot of these professionals talked about how we like to lana know a lot of pros that i like the 49

years once again. I'm kind of glad, by the way. Huh? I'm kind of glad. Yeah. But again, my pushback to them is like, weren't you guys the same one? Shout up from the rooftops. How amazing of a spot last week was for the 49ers against an overrated bucks team.

See you. Okay. But I just got a lot of, a shock and I got a good amount of calls about that one. Got a couple calls that, you know, about Chad's choice. So we might have to dive into that one a little bit. A lot of, a lot of love for my. Miami especially I've noticed I've noticed yeah so got a couple ones about that but again I don't know if I totally agree with that I think I like Chad's choice got some calls about the Rams

McVey apparently is really good international games okay I mean that's not going to be one I'm going to spend too much time worrying about it's like not and I'm in a position I've been taking much about just want people to know that there are pros on that side and for the chalky side a lot of love for Panthers for a couple pros I know and good uh Let's get to the ones that maybe we've nailed, Chad. Tennessee, they love it. Minnesota, they love it. We didn't really spend much time talking about the Saints.

A lot of pros love for the Saints. That's a good spot, good number. Obviously, we're going to talk about Raiders. We love that was a big talking point, a lot of pros. And our Monday Night special, Chad, we might have to do it. Every pro I talk to likes our Detroit pick. Every pro I talk to who likes our Houston pick. So we have some decisions to make this week because I'm,

I like those spots. The more I talk to guys, the more it feels like, okay, we might have been locked in. And those are really good spots. Those two Monday night double header games. So, yeah, I would say we had a little bit of pushback for the most part, a lot of love for our picks. And we'll see because, again, the public has just been getting crushed this year.

We know the data. We've seen the numbers. It's been the dream is professional and better. And like I joke with people, if you're listening to someone shows or you're, you know, paying like a sucker for, someone's picks on social media and they have a losing record in the NFL this season they are the square of squares you are dealing with it legit a square because I know pros who they don't do

anything work-wise they don't put 80 hours of work in a week they simply fade the public and ride with the books it's like one of their most profitable years I can remember so it's it's a good year about the books it's been a good year about these dogs and you know I think mean you've mean you've done well, taking favorites when we need to this season. And this week, again, we're on a couple of favorites. So you love the dogs this week, like a lot of the pros do, but there's some favorites. They're not, you know, I didn't get a ton of calls about the chargers. I still love the chargers. Just because a lot of pros don't love it and a couple of them on the Colts. I still think that's a charger spot. And like Washington, a lot of pros I talk to like Cowboys,

I still think Washington's a good spot. So it's an interesting week with professionals going back and forth in a lot of these games. Well, a lot of short lines. So you're going to get a lot of A lot of two-way action on short lines. All right, that was Sherp calls. Let's get into the games real quickly. You mentioned Chiefs Raiders. I don't want to spend too much time on it. I don't think we're going to put it in our contest.

We wanted to be patient. We wanted to get to 12, 12. And a half. In my opinion, sure, go ahead, bet the Raiders. But I don't think you're necessarily betting a power ranking here. You're kind of just betting the number. I don't think we need to spend too much time on it because it's not going to be a contest play.

It's just sort of play the number, play the dog, fade the public kind of play to me. This is a long-term winner, though. This is a play you have to make. If you listen to this show, you have to bet the Raiders. I mean, I can just give some quick numbers. Like there's tons of data that backs it up as a favorite of a touchdown or more.

So my home since 2020, he's 36 and 2 straight up. There's only two losses in that time frame chat since 2020. both against the Raiders. So it's a weird, unique spot. You know, he's 13 and 24 against the spread as a favorite of seven points or more. So like we talked about, we like to fade him when he's big favorites. We like to back him when he's a short favorite or a dog, Mooms. These numbers all back that up.

And just something to keep in mind, it's divisional games are very stupid. That was my whole point about bringing this up a kind of hammering home. Like I just told you, Mahomes, he doesn't lose ever in this spot. He's only lost twice against Raiders. So if you go back and look through those games, it's a joke. It's like, you know, the Raiders were, I think one game, there were a 13 point dog, the other game they were like this. They were a 12 point dog.

So I get it. Like I'm not going to bang the table here about this one, but it's just all these numbers. There's even more numbers. There's another Marisol. Mahomes is 11 point favorite or more. He's 6 and 12 in his career against the spread. So again, another spot to like it.

In his last 11, he's 2 and 9 against the spread. So it's like, we got to do it. I know we're not, we have a lot of games we like this week, so I probably won't force it in. Just don't be shocked people if I do get these glassy eyes to it come Sunday morning because I see how ugly it is with Gino. I think you're in the same boat. We just don't trust them.

But it's like historically we have to bet this. This is a long-term winner in a position we need to take. And, you know, Mahomes, outside his division is a big favorite. He's done really well in his division. he's 4, 12, and 1 is last 16. So against the spread. So it's just something to keep bringing up that is not numbers are always inflated

and they're then to be more inflated against guys in his own division. So I agree with you, though. There are games I like more. It's just I have taken a position on this one. I'm betting the Raiders. And like I said, I was hoping I was going to get the 13. The pros, they have the same number as I do.

They've come in. It never touched 13. It only got up to 12 and a half. Like Chet said, it's a dead number. Not going to be one of our bets most likely. but yeah, I do like the Raiders in the spot. All right. You just mentioned this in Sharp Calls.

Miami at Cleveland. Cleveland is a two and a half point favorite. This was Chad's choice. The two and a half lasted for about 24 hours after our show. And it got bumped up to three because I move lines. We know that. The better is buying it back, moving back down to two and a half. I'm going to be honest.

And I didn't know this was going to be in Sharp Call. but I could have predicted it, I would have felt better if it stayed at three for a little bit longer. I'm kind of surprised by the byback. And then I will tell you also the fact that over the past 24 hours, Tua has been taken blowback for his comments about the team meetings and the players-only meetings. And now he's apologizing. And Mike McDaniel gave him a little bit of grief at a press conference about it. That worries me.

It worries me because when those teams are at their lowest and you think you've, got it nailed that's when you end up getting burned a little bit i'm still on the browns uh i still like the browns in this spot i like it situationally i like the matchup carmically if i if i can't think of a better word i'm getting a little anxious that's funny because i've gotten those total opposite way where i was with you on clemen because i like the spot i thought two and a half was a good number the Miami dysfunction is like, this is the best. This is exactly what I wanted and needed for this matchup. Like they should be focused on the game and going against one of the best defensive lines they're going to face all year.

They're not. They're worried about all this other BS, which is like, this is what bad teams do. This is how bad teams stay bad. They don't worry about what's on the field, what they need to deal with on the field. They're worrying about what guys aren't coming in meetings at the right time. I mean, I don't know if you've been watching the two of stuff. he yeah i don't want to joke about c tt but the stuff he says week to week it feels like he's got something going on upstairs like he doesn't make sense and like he was saying how he doesn't want

guys on the team talking about other people and being distraction where he's the guy that just did it and it's like okay maybe a zero self-awareness i don't know he's just saying the most bizarre things that like people just don't want to hear like even like a week or two ago he's talking about how like he doesn't care what happens on the field because he goes home to a loving family. That's great mentality. We all, that's great. Like everyone agrees with that.

Don't say that to your fans who know you're making hundreds of million dollars, but that's why you should care how you do on the field. And if you win or lose and all of it. It's just, it's just so negative. So I'm still with you. I was shocked. Honestly,

these pros. It's like, dude, you got away with one last week with Miami. Like, you really go on me back to this Miami well again after you clearly stole a game against the Chargers. I can't believe it.

So I'm with you. I was shocked here in sharp calls. I still like Cleveland. But yeah, if we get pushed off, if this is down to, you know, Cleveland minus one and a half

and the pros have coming very heavy on Miami again, sure. Like, we'll avoid it Sunday morning. We won't put in the contest because we have some of the games we like. But yeah,

I still think this is just a great, great matchup for Cleveland. I'm so glad to hear you say that because I loved my handicap at the game. Like, Like I was so excited about it when I finally came to that conclusion at some point, you know, before we came on the air Tuesday, I'm like, I nailed it. There's three or four games that I freaking nailed. And I feel like I totally nailed this one.

So now you're booing me with confidence. I'm glad we'll stay on Cleveland minus two and a half. I hope. I hope it doesn't continue to go down and we don't get more chatter from wise guys. But I like Cleveland two and a half. New Orleans, Chicago, you mentioned this. We discussed it a little bit on Tuesday. It's moved a half point in the same's direction.

Here's my question. This moves so much on Monday night after the Bears beat the commanders in the final second. To move from four and a half to five and a half. I think it was a head fake. I think the wise guys moved it to five and a half so they could buy back at four and a half because I think the entire wise guy community right now is in love with Spencer Radler. That's what I think. That could be fair.

honestly I'm shocked by it. I just, the Saints, even Spencer Rattler, he's not good on the road. I know it's a short sample this year, but even this year he's not been good on the road. And the Bears,

my whole view was I just thought it was an inflated line where, like I said, the Saints, the public is not on them. There's no one, nobody. Like, it is a pro's team like you're right.

But then, yeah, like you dive into the trends and the numbers. Sure, you as a Bears fan. You could play a test. of this but again it's it's different because of the coaching change but it does include this year so the last four games on short rest with keel williams he's 0 and 4 straight up in those games he's only getting 15 points per game so okay struggles in short rest again that's a big deal less prep time um the last two years okay he's oh and four i i try to dive into more it's like

okay what do they like after these primetime games because that's that is a big deal to me is how these young teams react after prime time games. Sadly, chat is not good. They are just two and seven last nine games coming off primetime games. And this year, obviously, because this is Ben Johnson's only his first year. He lost against the lines, right? He got smoked in that game. So, you know, it's how is this young team going to react?

That's probably what a lot of professionals are viewing us as, where it's, you know, It's short week. I mean, even you know, there's, it's Chicago. Like, it's so much better they've coming off two straight road winds because it's going to be good vibes for the most part. I mean, I feel like the only dumb question they've had this week is the whole Troy Aikman, which I'm hoping you've come to my side, Troy Aikman being a dick and kind of being overrated. No way.

I always love Troy. I actually, it's funny you say that. I'm on the other side. I feel like he was great in that game. I have no problem with what he said. I always feel like Troy Aikman is great in those games. And the reason I like Troy Aikman, I think he's such a curmudgeon. And I think he gets testy and sensitive about everything.

At one point, he was talking about the K-balls and it being swapped out because it was raining and getting to work the balls in. And I always think about this. And this frames a lot of my Troy Aikman feelings, you know, back in the day when I was a couple. reporter at Sports Illustrated. I went to what was then Valley Ranch working for Sports Illustrated and was part of a two-person team. It was me and a guy, Rick Tallander, who was a senior writer at Sports Illustrated. We spent an entire week with the Cowboys, and we had full access. Like we were literally everywhere. We were in the room where like the pills were

broken up into different colors, right? I was with Bill Bates where the former safety when he got home to his house and his wife told him that they were having another kid i think they had three kids at the time like i was at a club with different players like it was a crazy week but at one point i was in the locker room when troyickman had just gotten a bag of new balls new footballs and he had to break them in and he was it was some new rule that year about the balls and he was just so freaking mad about having to break in the balls and just muttering under his breath you know the NFL they want us to do these things with the balls that makes it harder to play like i just have that in my head like this dude's just intense and i think he i think he's actually great i know i'm in the

minority here and i'm fine with what the because she has a bear's fan you were probably the one percent of bearsman actually by the way you know what i don't think the bears were perfect in that game i i like they were but he was ridiculous him holding a garage a guy against Caleb Williams because he didn't call him to have a phone call before the game. It's just old boomer energy at the max level. Don't care. Loved it. I know.

I know. There's no one better in football that tells you a team needs to call a timeout when there's less than two minutes left and they get a first down than Troy Aikman. The man thinks he's a genius. Every time he goes, yep, they got to call a time out here, Joe. Okay, Troy, thank you for that incredible wisdom. I love everything he does. I'm a huge, huge Troy Ackman fan.

I don't care. I guess, you know, we don't have to take a position on it. I'll probably end up being on Rattler and this Saints team just because it is this Bears defense that is just bad. They're just a bad defense that has major holes. I think they're still 30 first against the run. So it's like, I mean, you know, the Bears could easily win this game. They are more talented both sides of the ball. And I obviously have a better coach.

But, you know, just looking through the trends historically, this has been a bad. But even with Ben Johnson, you know, he's changed a lot here. We'll see. This would be a huge, huge, another thing to show that the culture is different. If he can get this young team up after a prime time win, because it's just hard to do. It's hard not to live for three, four days with that win rather than moving on to the next game. So it'll be interesting to see how this Bears team performs. I think it's a terrible spot for the Bears to cover.

I like him to win. Their defense is terrible. The Saints can get a pass rush. which is where Caleb has struggled a little bit, not getting sacked, but against the rush. I think he's still horribly inaccurate in intermediate routes. I think he's holding the ball too long. I got a lot of issues with Caleb. I love the Bears.

Obviously, I love the Bears. I only want good things for the Bears. I only want good things for all Bears fans, including me and my younger son, who I've gifted with the tragedy of Bears fandom. I hate this spot for the Bears. And I think it's a statement game because of what you just said. They got to figure out a way to get beyond a really big win, a dramatic win, and win a game against a bad team at home. That's it.

Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. Week 7 kicks off with Steelers versus Bangles. Check out these streaks from Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub. You can find odds to bet on all of these streaks. right now in the Hard Rock Bet app. Cincinnati has lost nine in a row as underdogs, but receiver T. Higgins has scored a touchdown in six straight home games. If you like stats like those,

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Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally.

calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing,

a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, Hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title

for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.

We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smygill and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get, podcasts. The story I've told myself about love or relationships can then shape my behavior, and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This mental health awareness month, tune into the podcast deeply well with Debbie Brown and explore the journey of healing, self-discovery, and returning to yourself. We explore higher consciousness, emotional well-being,

and the practices that help you find clarity, peace, and self-masmas. mastery in a world that can feel overwhelming. The world is becoming lonelier. We're not becoming more social and connected. We're becoming more individualized, but we actually meet people in connection. If you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole, this podcast is for you to hear more. Listen to deeply well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart

Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, I'm George Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than me. I'm an actor.

I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice.

Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Oh, cream a chicken suit. Hey, cream. Cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know.

Listen to Help from Hypocrat as part of the Mike Cultura Podcast Network available on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts. Philadelphia, Minnesota. Minnesota is now a one and a half point favorite. Can I tell you a story that's going to feel totally relevant when I'm done? Yeah. It's going to make you look good.

So, you know, I'm working on this book, right? And one of the guys I'm profiling the book, profiling the book is a professional better, very high-stakes professional better, like you. He's betting six figures on games. And he's got a bunch of very high-net-worth guys who tail him and they get these free plays on the games, and then he gets a percentage of whatever they win.

And so I happen to know completely randomly one of the guys who tails him. And this guy works in finance, and he's betting 20, 25 grand a game on whatever this guy bets, right? And he has told me, anytime this guy texts with a bet that he's making, he will stop what he's doing.

He will walk out of board meetings. He will walk out of phone calls. He will, whatever it takes to get the bet down when this guy says it before the line moves, he will do it. So, you know, before the season began, I was with this professional better, and he happened to send out a text to a bunch of folks that tail him, including this guy, and this guy texted me. He said, I'm on the highway right now, and I just pulled over to make a bet based on what this guy just texted me.

Here's my point. when someone who knows something says something, you need to stop whatever you're doing and get the best of the number. Simon, on Tuesday's show, you said take Minnesota plus two and a half. I really hope people were paying attention and I hope they stopped whatever they were doing whenever they heard that to go get the Vikings at two and a half

because it's now at one and a half. It might come back though. I do think obviously that's the professional side that money has come in, but we talk. about the risk with this bet and taking this position was I didn't know the injury report right we were doing that on tuesday j j j mccarthy did practice which to me i don't know about you chat i do not i did not make this bet to bet on j jc mccarthy uh against a fang's defense like that's not i much rather be wince running this offense where yeah i know wince has got throw us a pick but also know he's going to be able to push the ball downfield with a much better accuracy than j j jay and uh for the

Eagle side, looks like they're going to get Gielan Carter back. Quineon Mitchell did practice yesterday, limited. So I don't know if he's actually going to play, which to me, that is the factor. Jalen Carter obviously is a big deal. He's not, I mean, he's going to be a non-factor. What we've seen this year with the Eagles is the teams just double him because the Eagles have literally four pass rushers on their staff right now. Like we have four D-Ns. And none of them are talented enough to warrant a double team. So you can mitigate Carter. You cannot mitigate Quinnion Mitchell and what he can do for this team that you're talking about Justin Jefferson if he's going against the Eagles number two or number three corner it's over this this is a horrible

horrible matchup for this Eagles team and even diving into some of numbers with Jalen Hertz like we talked last week we talked a little bit about the Giants taking the number at seven and a half and how the trends just loved that Giants team in that exact spot it was the same thing when the trend just hated the Eagles in that exact spot the Eagles are just not a good team for some reason after they have straight-up losses. They've been very fortunate. They just don't lose. So you could say, well, these are old stats because they just went, whatever it was. Hertz just went 20 and 1 the last year.

But you saw it last year, early in the year when they were losing, it took them a couple weeks to get into that groove and start covering spread. So, you know, Hertz, this is going to be his 22nd game off a straight-up loss. He's 10 and 11 the following game, 7 and 14 against the spread. So historically, just not good because, again, the public still overvalues them. And it's just whenever the Eagles do lose, it seems like in his career, it's a skid. It's not the type of thing where it's like, okay, they win one week, they'll win the next. It's, no, it's like three, four weeks of just bad.

Like, it takes them a lot to get out of this hole. So we said it's, it's going to be interesting how they use the extended time. I don't think they're going to fix the offense. I know they're saying all the right things right now. I just think that's a, you know, Hertz is a professional, classy guy. He's never going to throw his bus, his coach. under the bus. But AJ Brown, the true truth

teller, he's the guy you want to hear from because he's going to kind of give you that it is. And he said what I think is true. He said everything's fine, but we do need to make it just. We need to run the ball more. We need to do different things where, you know, if I'm one-on-one, I should be getting the ball. That's the key here. It's like, is the ego's offense going to show up? Because I do think the Vikings right now, offensively, to me, are the better

team. They are, you know, you can say it's Carson Went. They're not. that much of a rhythm either. They're still better than the Eagles on paper, statistically in a lot of categories. And they don't have, they haven't played the easiest schedule the way because they've had a hard schedule as well.

And defensively, they're getting guys back. Like Florida is getting guys back this week. So, yeah, I just, it's a get right spot for this Eagles team. I think it's just another bad spot for them and the public walking into it. So like Chad said, this number's moved.

Hopefully you did get the two and a half. I think you can be patient here. I think if Quineon Mitchell gets cleared, Jayla Carter gets cleared. hopefully it's Carson Wentz still. I think it could get back to 2.5. If it's JJ, this could get up to 3.3.5. Like this could really move if it's JJ McCarthy getting clear here.

But everything I've seen from KOC, it seems like he wants it to be Wentz in this game. He doesn't want to just throw the rookie at 90%, 80%, what he is right now, back into this type of game. So I'm hoping KOC goes with Wentz, which I think is a smart move. My models am graded higher, and I think he's smart enough to know, why would you not want to play the vet here who's seen a lot? A lot of stuff, bang is going to throw at him rather than J.J. McCarthy making what his third start now in the league, it's just not a good ideal spot for him. I would look. It's a tricky game. It's one of those games that we're going to have to really nail down on Sunday when we got a better sense of who's starting and everybody who is expected to play because it is so dependent on quarterback and injury. But that was science. And a lot of games we love this week. Like if this is a tough week and I just not having a lot of games, I probably would.

force is winning because I do really like the number in the spot. People are going to see, I have just a lot of games I like this week, surprising. I think there's a lot of really good numbers. Yeah. The public just keeps overreacting to what happened last week where this year has just been Seasalt. None of these teams and margins have the difference is so slim. These are my favorite years I've been into because it's like we just overreact what we saw

the week before rather than the whole pitcher. So there's a lot of games this week I like with the lines. This next game, I don't want to spend too much time on because I don't think we're going to do anything with it. Other than to say, Carolina at the New York Jets, this line was at two, it's moved to one and a half. Betting the New York Jets right now requires amnesia. That's it. We know it's the sharp side. We know it's what everybody wants to play. We know what it looks like from a metrics point of view. We know that Carolina is coming off two dramatic wins, that they've done it with running games against the two worst defenses in the NFL. The Jets, statistically,

are not the worst defense in the NFL like the Pant, like the Cowboys, like the Dolphins. We know the Jets are the right side, but it's going to take more than brass balls to bet the Jets. It's going to take forgetting everything we've seen about the Jets for the past couple weeks. I don't know if there's anything more to say about it other than we're taking the Jets. It's not going to be in the contest. We're moving on. Yeah, who knows? Maybe I'll convince you Sunday morning. But yeah, I'm starting to really warm up to this Jets team in this Jets spots because how much I do hate it.

Where it's like, like you said, we're playing the number here. I can't let emotions get involved here. And this is a good, a very good number for a Jets team against a Carolina Panthers team that we've all seen it. Like they just, they haven't won as a favorite in like, what is it, Chad, five years or something. Maybe it's seven years. It's something insane. So it's hard to know, but I know it's not when we were betting them. No, no, no.

We definitely took positions on his favorites and lost along the way. But yeah, that's fair. We're going to make our fans do some gross things this week. I don't know if this has to be one of them, but I'm definitely on the Jets. We are going to make fans do gross things this week, and that includes this next game. New England at Tennessee. A buddy texted me the other day, and he said, this has to be brass balls.

You know what? He's right. Our brass balls Bet of the week, presented by Hard Rock Bet, The Tennessee Titans plus seven. You know what it takes?

It takes brass balls. Talk about not wanting to get to a spot. We did not want to get to this spot. Again, people that are listening to the show, SOS, This is the sharp side we know, and we know the public side is going to be the Patriots. They're going to be in every teaser.

I'm sure if you're going to take them a survivor contest, just be careful. Like even though it's not a huge advantage, the first game after the coach is fired, I do think these type of scenarios where a coach was so bad and it was so negative. And a lot of the stuff they lost felt like it was self-inflicted. I do think these type of swats matter.

And yeah, it's gross. Like if this was seven and a half, like it's going to be for us, most likely in the contest, I would be banging the table. You have to grab it right now. Because to me, at seven, this is right where it should be. Like, this is a good number, probably getting two free points. And Chad really talked about it's, again, there's always lazy stats, but there are things you should take away from it.

Three straight road games for a team, that's a lazy stat. but it's profitable to fade. Fading teams that are off three straight road games, let alone they've already won two straight. Covered two straight. Yeah, off two straight wins. Horrible, horrible, horrible spot. So that to me is another thing where it's like,

okay, we have our favorite dead cat bounce with the new coach. Now you're mixing in just how horrible of a spot this is. If anyone can win it, it is variable. But like you said, I think you said it was like a 30% win rate or something horrible. Yeah, 34. Yeah. So I'm with you, brother. Like I'm invested in this Tennessee.

I bet a lot into this seven, this plus seven at this point. And it's a lot of safety in this number two. You're getting the seven. There's no excuse. If this was five and a half, maybe I can lie to Chad and talk them out of it and try to get away from it. But at this number, it's insane. It's so inflated.

We got to take it. And yeah, this type of game will look like an idiot with egg on our face Sunday night or our fans who love and trust us. They'll see. This is why we bet these spots. It's all about the number. If you can't stand in the Tennessee team, don't watch it. Because I agree, it's probably not going to be fun.

But it is just so much about the number in this spot here. I love that you brought up how the third trade road game to me. That's all I needed to hear to really get me behind this Tennessee team. Tennessee Titans plus seven. That is our brass balls bed of the week. Indianapolis at the LA Chargers. That game is now at Chargers minus two. This was going to be your assignment says if we didn't go with Minnesota.

This one has moved as well. not as aggressively move from one and a half to two, you were a little surprised that we didn't get feedback from sharp calls on this. But I look at this game right now, and I, like you, I'm kind of falling in love with the Chargers, and they seem to do this to us every single week. And shame on us, because when we've been doing it, we've been betting them as short road favorites and not as short home favorites.

And I feel like there's just got to be regression with Daniel Jones. That's, at the end of the day, that's what this is about to me, is regression for Daniel Jones. It's a five and one team that could just easily be four and three, right? Or four and two.

So, that's my thought. I'm still with you on the track. Yeah, and pretty interesting in Hard Rock is at two because most books have moved to minus one and a half again. There's one book out there,

plus two and a half, but that to me will come down. That just means one very, very, very, very, smart professional group must have came in heavy at this one book but to me it should just be one and a half like this i don't know why the books are going to move it unless it is professional money because to me it's just going to be all public money on this colds team every bet everyone i know is going to be on the colts team and that's why i'm shocked more pros weren't lining up like we are on this chargers team you're getting a team that i'm almost positive they've lost three straight against the spread games so

to me you're buying very low on a Chargers team and this we talk all the time about coaches and spots this is a horrible spot this is the type of game that he gets the guys up for I mean I'll look into a Mayoff's on Norse first on Sunday I am assuming Harbaal in his career has never between college or pro has ever lost four straight against the spread again this is a guess

but it's like if you look through his record he's always well above 500 wherever he goes against the spread. So to go on this type of run here is pretty wild. Like it just shows like we said last week, we were a part of it. We were still overrating this Chargers team from what they did in the first couple weeks,

which happens on football, right? Teams get banged up. Something's really excited to me is Joe Alt was practicing this week. Yeah. So that to me is a little sneaky thing that he might be back in this game. And, you know, it's really, we talk about the January Jones regression.

I mean, what he's done against pressure has been obscene. Obscene. Best in the NFL against the Blitz. And I said that last year. I couldn't believe it was a real number. He went nine for nine last week against pressure, which is just unbelievable. The hot route connecting nine for nine,

the hot read and the hot route is just crazy. So I know, we both know. We're walking into it a little bit here against this cold steam and how good they've been. But like I said, no teams go perfect. No teams go 15-0-1. It's just teams lose. Daniel Jones is going to have a bad game.

This is a bad matchup. And on the flip side for Herbert, you know, he, I think he'll get confident, especially if Joe Alts back, his confidence will keep growing and he'll feel more comfortable obviously dropping back and passing. But like I said, horrible spot for this Chargers team. Like this is the type of game where he wins. It might be ugly. Maybe we'll land on two.

We're getting one and a half almost every book right now. Like that's such a great number. So you don't have to take it here at Hard Rock. that hard rock is usually a sharper book like we've seen they usually get smart money coming in on certain side so hard rock could easily get up to two and a half i could see professionals keep taking this charger side for all of you out there shop around find the one and a half it's it's out there i know the juice isn't great it's usually minus 115 minus 112 but i think it's worth paying in this spot with this line on this chargers team uh i also think the colts are going to be a public dog

this week. And so... They're going to be the biggest public dog this week. Yeah. I mean, any single time we can be fading the public dog, especially this season. I feel like that's the side

we want to be in. What's getting interesting to me, Simon, is I feel like we're narrowing it on five that we really, really like. I think there's going to be one game that sort of is on the edge that we'll talk about

in a little bit. New York Giants at Denver, I don't think we need to spend too much time in this. I don't think it's going to make it. I love it. I totally love it. It never got to the six and a half like I was hoping it would. It actually is moving closer to seven and half. You can see the juice and it's heading in that direction. So my final statement on the game, I think there's a defense advantage for the Broncos. I think it's a home advantage for the Broncos. I think it's a coaching advantage for the Broncos. I don't think that Cam Scadaboo and Jackson Dart have seen

anything close to what the Broncos can do to confuse them, to stop the run, to make it challenging, to lock down their outside receivers with pass-sertain when they don't have Malik neighbors. Massive situational advantage to me. I bet it at seven. I don't have to stand on ceremony about it. I think there's going to be other games we want to put in. It didn't come up in sharp calls. I don't know your strong opinion on this.

No, honestly, I just haven't talked much about it. I took a position Sunday night on Giants 7.5, and that's honestly, that's it. There's just other games I like more, and they're just, I don't trust Bo Nix. I don't trust Denver. And like you said, at 7.5, I could push back against you and be like, oh, you got to take a Giants here, but I'm not dug in on this game at all. Washington, Ed Dallas, this one's moving. It was two.

It's now one and a half. A lot of negativity around the commanders right now. I think that game against the Bears, it seemed like they were going to win it. It seemed like the Bears were giving it away. It seemed like Jaden Daniels was moving well enough to slip by literally defenders in the backfield against the Bears. And then he converted some really nice plays on third and long against horrific, horrific play calls from Dennis Allen. But people don't like this defense. They don't think Jaden Daniels looks as good as he did last year.

He's been injured. and people just love DAC. So the question is, this Cowboys defense is so unbettable right now. Are we willing to take a shot with the Dallas Cowboys as home underdogs because we love DAC more than we hate their defense? I get into the trends because I honestly,

I like the commander shot. I thought this was going to be a good commander's spot because I just think they're, like we said, I think they're a better team than Cowboys. Cowboys just have a ton of injuries. And Dak is the only, thing you can really wrap your head around of a reason to back this Cowboys team. And the numbers back it up.

I mean, I talked early in the week, I take a position on the under here. And I joke, there's no way there's ever been a total this high in this match between these two teams. I was wrong. So the last time, they were 54. The spread total was 54 or above was 1980 in this matchup. So it did happen. It was just 45 years ago. 45 years ago?

Yeah. Yeah. I'm pretty sure. I'm pretty sure I watched that game. It was like, you know, Danny White and Drew Pearson against Joe Thysman and the Smurfs. I couldn't believe that it's happened before because it's like, man, it's just such a huge total

for a divisional game and just so many things go wrong. So, yeah, that's, that's shocked. That stats shocked me. Let's run through all the Cowboys stats. Because I was trying to find why is there so much love by the pros for this Cowboys team? It's got to be the historical data. So let's go through it.

Their last eight games against the commanders, they're 7-1 against the spread, this Dallas team. That's four straight covers at home. So, okay, it's a team that they have matchable against, again. You can even go back to the Kirk Cousins years, even he struggled with Washington against this Dallas team. So, all right, let's dive in the DAC thing,

because it must be a DAC thing. Dak, 10 and 3 against Washington against the spread in his career. that's the best quarterback the last 20 years against Washington. He is 6-0 straight up in his career, 5-1 against the spread against Washington. So I get it. Maybe I won't force us to take this Washington, just because there's certain teams and just in your division you have the number of. I mean, ask tons of fans about certain quarterbacks in their divisions.

It's just like the Rathusberger thing against the Cleveland. It was stupid, but I made a life-changing amount of money betting Rathusberg. his money line against the Browns every time they played he just I can't remember if you ever lost the only time I can think of is that playoff game with Baker so it's like there's certain guys or just auto plays against certain teams I guess the stats are telling me that with this DAC team but it's like dude Dak's defense this is the worst defense he's ever had in that whole career but once again it's the reason this to scaring me off because I went through a lot of those games it really was Dak leading his team and again

game in a couple of those to get the win and get the cover. So even when they didn't have great defenses in the last couple years of Dax's career, he still played up and played well against them. So I don't know what to do with it. I wanted to be on Washington. I can afford to be patient here. If you want Dallas, I'd grab the two and a half. I could see it. Like we said, it's already one and a half here at Hard Rock. You better go grab the two and a half because I think the pro's going to keep bedding it. I'll be patient. I'll grab Washington. I just like this match, especially Jeff Terry McLaren comes back. Thinking him in Debo, this is a great get-right spot.

And then you add in the fact that any team that wants to run the ball against his Cowboys team can. And that's such a huge deal, especially for a guy like Jane Daniels that. You've seen it, like Chad said, he's looked different this year when he's in a guy and he's third in 10 rather than when he's third and five. So this is just a good match for what's Washington team. And it's just interesting to me that pros are coming in so heavy on Dallas. I just, I can't believe it.

I thought this is going to be all Washington, public and pros. But yeah, it's split. It looks like it's going to be the public on Washington. The pros are on Dallas. I think all those trends are because DAC was on a better team than the commanders for almost the entire time he's played. Those card teams are good. Yeah. That's fair though.

That is fair. You know, I mean, that's normally the case. Like, it's Aaron Roder against the Bears. It's Rathsburger against the Browns. Like, you know, that's usually. how it goes. I'm agnostic on this game. Don't have a strong opinion one way or the other. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news.

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early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say hey Jonas, and then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas,

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the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to help from a Hibon. Hypocrat as part of the Mike Coulthura Podcast Network available on the IHartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Let's talk about Atlanta, San Francisco, because the wise guys coming in on San Francisco. The other day when we were on the show, you completely talked yourself into the Falcons as we were discussing the game. I'm still hesitant because of Brock Purdy. He practiced on Wednesday. George Kittle practiced, by the way.

We don't know what the status is going to be. We don't know if they're going to be playing. But to me, I really don't want to bet into a game where I still don't know who the starting quarterback is going to be for the team that I think might have a slight advantage if he's playing. So I don't want to bet in Atlanta. All right.

That's fair. I just... You love Atlanta? I don't know if I love them, but I do love the number. And obviously it's moved here at Hard Rock. They're down to plus. too. Yeah. Two and a half like I talk about the time. It sounds stupid, but I do think

it's such a key number. At that number, I was like feeling much better about the Falcons in the sense that this game should be a pick. Like, no Fred Warner. I can't describe you how big of a deal it is, especially like, again, I hate the whole film culture. I watch film.

No one else does. But if anyone that does watch film, it's noticeable how important he is to that team. He is the general. He literally lines guys up I felt like 50% of their snaps. He's lining up their defender's time exactly where they need to be

because it's a young defense. We talk coming in the year, it's like, Sala's got to do a miracle job here because it's such a young defense. They lost Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. Two guys they literally could not lose. I mean, just since 2019, no Nick Bosa,

they're 7 and 14 against the straight up. 7 and 14 without Nick Bosa. Now we're writing in Fred Warner. I can't get over how big of a deal it is. And we don't even know how bad they are without Fred Warner because he's never missed games. Yeah, never, never. And it's like, I just can't get over the impact that.

Maybe they get away with it here. But I think we're both in a great. It's our future bets, our positions on the 49ers. It's dead. Yeah. You're just, to win a Super Bowl, you need at least one absolute no doubt leader on that defense to be there. And this is a team that could not afford it.

And now he has gone and Fred. And, you know, it's interesting when you think about this spot for this Falcons team, which again, it's all different because these are different quarterbacks, different pieces. But historically, this is not a good spot for the Falcons, right? They just had a huge win against the bills at home, a team of both 500. Yeah. Since 2019, games following that, when they play another team above 500, they're 11 and 22 against the spread historically, this Falcons team.

So I get it. historically not a great spot. Maybe I am the sucker. I'm the Joe Public here, but the line movement agrees with me. Like the two and a halfs are disappearing. There's twos out there. There's one and a halfs out there now. So I can't be totally Joe public here, taking this position on the Falcon.

So I like it. Like Chad said, I'm betting it for a lot of the wrong reasons. That's why I'm not super confident about it. But at least I do have a good model number on. I do make this game a pick. I am getting two points of value on Atlanta right now, so I'll take that position. But I just don't think the books have reacted enough. to how big of a deal Fred Warner is.

And yeah, great, Brock Pretty coming back, kiddle coming back. Obviously, that's a huge deal, big upgrade to their offense, but I don't know. Total is 47. Maybe I'll take the over as well. It's like,

I just don't know if they have adjusted enough to them losing their field general in this spot. Well, look, the one thing you mentioned, which I just keep forgetting, and I don't know why, is Fred Warner. So that does change the calculus for me a little bit in that, oh, wait a second, this defense,

know they'll fix things. I know Sala's a great coach and I got a lot of faith in him. But this defense was really out of sorts after Fred Warner went out from a communication point of view. Can they fix that? I completely disagree with you. The absence of Fred Warner is a huge, huge

challenge for the Niners to overcome. So maybe on Sunday we have a different conversation. Yeah, it's all about the number. You know, we'll see what happens on Sunday. Two games that were not, I don't think we're going to be able to avoid the prime time games first up we've got Detroit as a five and a half point favorite at home against Tampa Bay.

Open to five and a half. Got that down to four and a half. We loved it on Tuesday when it was four and a half. We both bet into it at four and a half. It's now at five and a half. Kind of a dead number. I'd still bet the line. Still a key number though.

You want to get it before it gets to six. Yeah. Oh yeah. You want to get it before it gets to six. I mean between four and a half and five and a half. I still like it at five and a half. It's just, I'm not going to walk away from Dan Campbell and Jared Gough in a dome with their offense, basically healthy in a get right spot in prime time. They cover like 70%.

You know, I'm not even exaggerating. I'm rounding up a little bit, but they just do. Like this is a smash cover spot. for the Detroit Lions. And I know it pains us to bet against Baker, who's been so good to us, but lions, lions, lions. Yeah.

And I've talked about like Baker, I normally would not be betting this spot because he's just been so good to me as a dog. And, you know, shout to our guy, Evan Abrams, had just an amazing stat. Baker 16 and 8 against the spread as an underdog, covering by 5.6 points per game. and you know that's that's a real thing with him with the bucks like he's since he's been the bucks to

dog he's been incredibly profitable now let's talk the other side the side we're betting and why this is such a good spot for golf and campbell so after a straight-up loss jare goff campbell 20 and eight against the spread after a straight-up loss and even better they've won and covered 11 straight since 2022. Yeah, they're a juggernaut in this spot. They are magical in this spot. Dan Campbell, in so many ways, I don't think

it can be overstated. Everyone clearly sees he's a great coach, but the way he is coaching this team and the predictability with which they come back and don't get too far down when they lose games, the way they lost against Kansas City their night,

this is not a team that goes into the dumps. Do you know what I mean? Like psychologically, bounce back. They are like, they are strong. Yeah, sorry, interrupt. I'm just so enthusiastic about it.

And I had a ton of pros reached out last week about why they love Detroit so much was because it was a night prime time game. And I remember I went through the numbers and I was like, is it really that big of a deal? It's insane how good Campbell and golf are in these nighttime games, which I didn't realize last week when we bet into it. Again, it wouldn't have changed my bet. But I just like these stats. I find it interesting.

As a favorite in night games, golf 19 and 3. Yeah. That's 9 and 0. Well, I guess 9 and 1 or 9 and 0, yeah, as a favorite with the Lions. ATS-wise, golf 25, 10 and 1 against the spreads. 71% since he's been with the Lions covering by more than 5 points per game. It's all there, people. It was scary.

Not going to lie last week, betting against that Lions team. It's the same feeling we have this week. It doesn't feel good going against Baker here. trust the number trust the spot this does feel like a touchdown game so i do want people to grab it now like you said at five and a half it's kind of a dead number if you're betting the dog as a favorite it's a key number you want to get this while you still can so i love that we be able to give out the four and a half kind of wish i made simon says and i had the balls to do but i thought professional money was going to bet this down i really did i thought professional public were coming on tampa

it's totally other way it's like 80% of the bets 80% of the money is all on Detroit side so i don't think it's going to come down people i just don't even all the money's coming and still going up so i i just want you guys to get it before it gets a six and that key number yeah we're not going to be able to avoid that one i i don't know how i'm going to get any sleep over the weekend last game on the board houston i loved it the other day a plus three and a half i nearly made it chad's choice they're visiting seattle late night monday night double header i'm totally opposed to it i could go Troy Aikman crazy on this idea. But until this morning, I was surprised and concerned that I did not move from three and a half down to three. And then this morning it did. And so that was kind

of the validation. You know, I need validation. You needed that. I need validation and positive feedback all the time in every way. And moving that, that moving from three and a half to three was the validation I needed on a Thursday morning. So I feel great. I feel great. I love it. Let's bet it. It's already bet for me at three and a half. We're going to put in the contest. Someone's going to watch this game. Not going to be me. I'll wake up Tuesday morning and be surprised. Yeah, and I love this match for this use in defense. They have a number one shutdown corner. Hopefully, no one's been able to do it. He can shut down JSN and that to me will be a big deal to see how Sam Ronald does without his safety valve because every time they need a third down,

he just goes to him and it's working. Like Jackson's over the jibba, top two, top three receiver in football right now. He's just playing out of his mind and Sam Darnel is feeding him. So we got the right matchup. We have a shutdown corner in this matchup. We have a D-line in Houston that can get pressure, which we know Sam Darno does not like with four, right? They don't need to rush five.

They can. And the trends, like the trends here are just incredible, where I know people have talked a little bit more about it, the general public, but the McDonald on the road thing is real. This guy and his teams are different teams on the road. We're at home in his career. He's four and eight straight up, three and nine against the spread. Again, short, small sample, well, this is getting into year two now, and these things are holding true. So I like it allowed for the Texans. And then we add in the fact that, you know, they had a buy week.

And when you're having these early buy weeks in the year, it is such a big deal. And you can see with certain teams, they do have their legs back. And when you look at these numbers on the data, and it's like, okay, let's look at teams that, you know, they played a primetime game, right? Their last game was a prime time game.

And they had a buy week, and now they're coming back after 15 days. Is that too much rest? So teams with a total of 15 days off, and then they're on the road since 2003, 20 and 11 against the spread in this exact spot. So they get up for it. There's no dragging their feet, right?

It's not like they're at home, you know, going through the motions. They're on the road in a tense environment. Historically, these teams get ready to play in these spots. So like Chad said, it's really about the number. Three and a half, such a great number here for this Houston team, this defense against a Seattle team that is very talented. They're warranted that number,

but it's a little inflated. It feels a little overpriced. And the fact that there's a rest of spirits here, the fact that, you know, Seattle is just a different team now at home. It's like all of us, we're still living the Beastquake era, right? We just remember that Seattle,

New Orleans says that home field advantage. It has not been true over the last couple of years. That's not been the case these last couple years. So three and a half key number, Chad said we might be on two Monday night games in our contest. I don't know what we're going to talk about on Sunday night. We'll be fired up. Hopefully we're not sitting their own three

dying to go two and oh on Monday night. Well, you might miss the show because you're getting a haircut if that's the case. Simon, Simon, I'm going to recap everything that we're thinking about for Sunday morning in a second, but first, give me your biggest bets right now. Pull up those pants and be a man.

I've taken a pretty large position here on this Houston game, Detroit game, Chargers, Vikings, Tennessee, I'm probably going to get there. I don't know about Atlanta yet, but I'm like, the more I talk about, the more I've started to love it. So, yeah, as you're sitting here right now, like my biggest positions, if you can get the Houston

three and a half, join me. Lines, as long as we're getting under six, that's going to be one of my bigger positions. And, you know, we'll see about this Tennessee line. Like, I have a lot on the sevens. If it gets six and a half, I won't be putting that much into it. If it's all six and a half across the board come Sunday, it won't be one of my bigger bets. We sit here right now.

I've taken a pretty large position on this Tennessee team at plus seven. I love that it's one of the rare weeks where I think you and I are completely in lockstep. Like there might not need to be any convincing when it gets to Sunday. We'll see. I think there might be one game that requires a little bit of convincing. Our money line, round robin, underdog parlay. This is who I put in. Vikings, Titans, Jets, Falcons, and Texans.

Let's take out Tennessee and put in Dows. That's asking a lot. That win with Tennessee. My on deck was the Cowboys, the Cowboys, the Colts and the Jacks. So I'm happy to take out. And again, we hit last week. Finally, the dogs came through and we hit last week. Thank you, Chicago.

I was having a hard time with the favorites probably, to be honest. I couldn't figure out who I wanted to put in there. Who do you think? Well, first, I went with the record show. You did miss. I did give out the Rams last week. Oh, did I? Did I miss that?

Okay. Which is, again, as long as the fans bet it and made some money off of it, that's all I honestly care about. Because I'm betting this stuff too. And it's like, I couldn't believe I bet it and then didn't give another show. It's like, how did I miss that one? Yeah, it's an interesting week for favorites. I'm not going to put the chiefs in at minus 850. But if you want to do the same thing I did with Green Bay,

take them down to minus five and a half, I'd be willing to put that in. If people hear this in time, if you would get Pittsburgh in there, minus 270, even though it's like a trap spot, very stinky, it's still worth the value to me,

getting them in there. But let's get to the actual ones we're going to put in. So give me the bears minus 225. I know it's not ideal. the best spot but still Spencer Rattler on the road guys only one one one game in his career we got to take the bears in that spot especially at minus 225 Patriots they're minus 345 I'm not crazy about that one it feels like that's that's been bet up I mean it's it's literally getting 90% of the money in the bets right now so that is that is pretty crazy but and we don't we only have so many

options so we have to put that one yeah give me the chargers minus 130 um really like that spot for this chargers team that help us eat up some of these big chalk favorites we're taking which again green bay we can put them in there they're minus 345 um i know you love denver i'm on board with it they're minus 360 and the last one we have to get in there detroit minus wow minus uh 250 right now so that's six yeah yeah because i want to put i want to put them in in case people miss um between the if you don't want to put the steeler's in you don't put the chief's adjusted line in I wouldn't give out a plenty of options. That's six after those two.

Green Bay, Bears, Patriots, Chargers, Detroit, and Denver. I like it. Again, I did six last week. I'll do six again this week. All right. Just, we've been talking about it. It's been really good for the favorites. Last week, we got some really good outright dog wins.

But still, favorites this year. It's overwhelming how much they're winning outright. All right. Vikings, Cowboys, Jets, Falcons, Texans, the favorite parlay, we're going big. If you can get the Chiefs minus five and a half and you can get the Steelers tonight, Thursday night football, grab it. Otherwise, the Packers, the Bears, the Broncos, the Chargers, the Patriots, the Lions. I mean, we're out of Survivor, but if we were playing, I would say the Chiefs.

I don't hate it. I still have a couple left, so I might put chiefs in one of them. I'm not, like Chad said, this is probably a tougher week, so that's probably the safest option to take. I do have two of them that, like, I need to use. I already, you know, I want to save the chief, so I'm taking the Patriots, but I'm with Chad. Safest one this week for Survivor feels like the Chiefs. Sharp versus Square. We both won last week.

Panthers, you and the Chiefs. I defer to you, good friend. This is a tough one. I guess I got to do it. You got to take the lines. Give me the lines minus five and a half. You know what? That's fine. That's fine.

I'm going to say the chargers, but. I'm surprised you didn't do the chargers. Yeah, I just feel more confident about, feel safer about those golf stats. He's just the moneymaker in these spots. I'm taking Houston. I'll take the plus three. for me it came down to Houston the Chargers and the Lions so since you took the Lions

I don't love the Chargers you know too much so I'm taking Houston at plus three the games that I think we're going to have a conversation about Cleveland minus two and a half Tennessee plus seven

Detroit minus five and a half Houston plus three and a half if we can get it And the Chargers minus one and a half. I think we're going to want to see what's happening on Sunday with Minnesota. I think we're going to want to see what's happening with Atlanta and the Niners. And I think we're going to want to see what's happening with the Saints.

I think they'll still, I think they're still going to be in the conversation, to be honest. Yeah. No, we, again, it's always scary. Like last week, you know, we had a tough getting to the five. This week it feels like we have like two or three around the kick to the curb comes on to. Yeah, yeah. All right. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. You're going to get to eavesdrop on an intimate conversation between me and my BFF and we're going to make utterly human decisions and be miserable the rest of the day. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, 7.30 p.m. Eastern to recap all the misery that will be live. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe to the channel. Also download some Spotify. Apple pods, wherever you get your pods.

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