The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 8 Bets and NBA Betting Scandal Reaction

Episode Date: October 24, 2025

As news of a massive betting scandal and arrest following a years-long FBI probe send shockwaves through the sports world, NFL betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter reconvene to talk about it all. After discussing the ramifications within and beyond the sports betting universe, they also deep dive into their best bets for NFL Week 8. They tell gamblers their favorite NFL matchups across the board, leading up to their final five against the spread bets for their weekly NFL pick 'em pool contest. We also have Simon's weekly Sharp Calls segment, where Simon recaps the phone calls he's received from fellow professional gamblers responding to our Tuesday show. NFL betting picks and predictions provided today include Sunday Night Football between Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers as the Green Bay face the Pittsburgh Steelers, as well as Drake Maye and the New England Patriots as big home favorites against the Cleveland Browns. Our betting duo also discusses the lowly Tennessee Titans vs. Daniel Jones and his Indianapolis Colts, the Washington Commanders vs. Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs, and of course MVP candidate Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys vs. the Denver Broncos led by Bo Nix. Picks and predictions for NFL Week 8 also include our Round Robin parlays, over/under picks, Simon's biggest bets of the week, moneyline favorites and so much more. #Volume 0:03:00 - NBA BETTING SCANDAL REACTION 0:28:30 - SHARP CALLS 0:32:00 - CHICAGO BEARS VS BALTIMORE RAVENS 0:37:00 - NEW YORK GIANTS VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 0:42:05 - CAROLINA PANTHERS VS BUFFALO BILLS 0:44:30 - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS HOUSTON TEXANS  0:49:06 - NEW YORK JETS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS 0:51:36 - TAMPA BAY BUCS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS  0:56:05 - CLEVELAND BROWNS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 0:59:00 - DALLAS COWBOYS VS DENVER BRONCOS 1:03:20 - GREEN BAY PACKERS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS  1:07:00 - UNDERDOG PARLAYS, BIGGEST BETS, ET  -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. Help an Acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the ice. Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Winning on Clay is an art.

The rallies are relentless. And at the French Open, only the toughest survive. I'd know. I competed there for decades. Join me, Renee Stubbs, on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast for no nonsense breakdowns of the biggest matches, the toughest players, and the moments that define Roland Garris. She can win. She's an outsider to win the French fame.

And she likes Clay. Listen, Lina Rubakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any service. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcasts on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in.

I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. and we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to SportsSlice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slicalife-Life 12

and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bet. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better, Simon, Hunter. Hello, Simon.

Chad, what's going on? This morning, the FBI, the U.S. attorney from the Eastern District, announced a sweeping set of indictments against many people, including members of three families of the mafia, La Cosa Nostra, including Portland Trailblazers head coach Chauncey Billups, including Damon Jones, former Cleveland Cavalier and assistant coach, Terry Rozier, two separate indictments. I will set the stage here. Two indictments, 34 different people involved.

One indictment is for illegal poker rooms and swindling, unsuspecting players in those poker rooms. That's what Chauncey Billups is involved in and Damon Jones is involved in. The U.S. attorney in the press conference referred to Chauncey Billups and Damon Jones as the face cards of the operation, meaning they were the famous people who brought in the rich, unsuspecting fish into the games who were then taken. And then another indictment in which there overlapping people is the one in which Tara Rozier has been indicted for the sports betting, sharing of information. That also is tied to Jonte Porter, who famously was banned.

This is involving player props and Tara Rozier player props. Crazy story. Definitely, you know, the stakes keep getting higher on the gambling scandals since legalization. and last a couple years ago there was the Otani interpreter scandal now this is front page news this has been blowing up all morning since the arrests at six o'clock in the morning both in Portland and in Orlando where Terry Razir was after the Heath game last night he did not play last night and now there was a press conference that was all over the news look it's it's it's a weird thing we do a show on betting we have a good time. We talk about betting on the games. We talk about where the opportunities are.

That's the primary focus of what we do. But you and I are also very much in this world. We know a lot about the poker rooms. We know a lot about what's happening in the sports betting space beyond what we talk about on the show. I'm in the middle of working on a book about this world of sports betting that will come out in the next, say, 12 to 24 months. obviously at our professional better. There's going to be a lot of conversation about legalization being the cause and the scandals being the effect. I got a lot of thoughts on that, but let's break down the news for a second.

You're seeing this. What are your thoughts? I'm sadly never shocked just because, like you said, I am in this world. And we've talked at a time. I'm someone that I love poker. I love Texas Hold'em. and I play a lot of house games in the off season. I do a lot of casino games, a lot of tournaments,

but there's always going to be house games, right? But you hear of these games with dirty tables and fixed games. And you might get away with it on one or two millionaires. Not all millionaires are dumb that look into it, right? And we've all met guys who you're like, okay, if you was born into it or he found a right niche, this guy is not that smart. Some guys are brilliant.

and they are incredibly smart with people. And they can see things that normal people can't see. That's how they made all their money. All it takes is one of them to get into that game. And they can tell right away. Something's off. Something's fixed. Then they go again.

And the same thing happens again. They're going to notice it again. So it's really about the names, right? It's huge names. We all know. I mean, Chauncey Billups, he's one of my favorite players ever. Like, he played in Detroit Nuggets. And then he came to Philly and I loved them.

Like, I love Chaunty Bill's. I think I have a Choncy Billup's Sixers jersey, no joke. So sad because you know how much money this man has made in his career and it wasn't enough. He wasn't like when you hear people doing stuff like this, they could say they did it for the money in their family, whatever they want to say. It's like Walter White and Breaking Bad. You did it for you. You didn't do this for anything other than yourself.

And crazy, crazy story. Like you said, it's the tip of the iceberg a lot of times, right? So much more stuff is going to come out as this unfold. So it's a really interesting story. I'm excited to follow. And, you know, people like you said, they think it's bad, the legalization of gambling. This is why it's good because before this would be handled off the radar. This would not be handled in the public eye, I promise you that.

So things are just changed now. And it's a good thing. These guys should see the light of day. And like you just said, all the lives that's going to affect, this must be a huge multimillion dollar operation. And like I said, it's going to be really interesting. these next couple months, all the information that's going to come out. Some of the details from the press conference that the U.S. attorney and the FBI had this morning

in New York were that the tables at these illegal poker games included X-ray technology that allowed off-site individuals to see the face-down cards of the players at the table and then relay that information to other people at the table. there were contact lenses and glasses that were able to read watermarks on pre-marked cards at the table. There were many cameras inside the card trays that a lot of the players had at their table. So the cameras were able to read what cards people had and again relayed all that to off-site operators who were then able to share that with other people at the table. I know a lot about these card rooms. Like I've spoken to a lot of professional poker players about it

and a lot of people who are playing for high stakes games. This is how a lot of professional poker players, not games like these that are fixed, but a lot of professional poker players, even at the World Series of Poker, these are the games that are going on. These are the games where the cash is being traded where it's $1 million, $2 million, $3 million,

$10 million on the table at the World Series of poker because these games, games go on all night and that's where the real action is happening. And they've been at the center of this gambling controversy that started with Jean-Day Porter. And so the marriage of these things, and it was also, I think, a part of the Otani stuff, the marriage of these things and how these things take place between just very wealthy people across the board is where I think sort of the real intriguing sort of narrative is taking place

place, just like you're in these poker rooms. You like to play poker. You just said that. Like, when you're inside there, what does it feel like? I mean, it's fun, honestly. It's all about how you view money, though. Like, these people view money the same way I do. That it's just, it's something to have fun with.

It's not so much, you know, like, again, you can have rough nights. No one wants to lose money. But it's not like in Sopranos, right? where the guys like, yeah, I got 150K and I owe this, this casino room. It doesn't really work that way, right? It's you're spoken for. You're not going into debt selling your business to play in these casino rooms. So that's what the interesting part of this, though, this is like way above my levels.

Like I, I played in some games I shouldn't have been in and I literally play super tight. I'm literally just there to build relationships in the conversation. I honestly am there. If I can get up 10K, great. If I lose 10K, okay, I'll walk away. I'll never go all in unless I have the nuts. And guys in that room will know that. So if I do push, they almost always fold.

So I can bluff myself into some nice spots. But I play super, super tight in those games. There's guys who sit down and they will go all in every three or four hands. They just like the action. And they're there for the drinks, the cigars, the fun. It's all different. Everyone's there for different reasons. So this one, like you said from the top, Chauncey Billups,

if someone said, you want to come to this poker? game you can meet chancy billups i'm a sucker i would have been there so him be them putting him out there and being like he was running this thing and he knew that he could get people in there because of who he was i believe that right from the top so um yeah again american reporting people keep say it's dying chad it's it's not dead yet it's not dead yet and the stories are pretty incredible when they do get broken so um yeah i don't know if it's gonna be pablo tori finds out but you know that's the greatest fear i think in all sports media right now is you do not want to know pablo to what he's looking into you i would love a pablo breakdown a show about this one because

like we said we're we're just getting to the layers here man you think it just stops at terry rousier i mean this might get really juicy in the NBA not i want to say it's the most corrupt league or whatever but between the owners the players no other leagues have these type of scandals right now well this is really really wild that uh Every sport has their own little scandals. I hope this is where it ends for the NBA because between what's going on to Clippers, now what's going on with players in the league,

they need this to stop. You need this to stop the NBA. This is such a bad look. Well, look, the, the player prop problem is the, is the biggest, challenge for the NBA. And Adam Silver was on Pat McAfee 36 hours ago, 48 hours ago, talking about working with the operators to try to limit certain player prop markets.

And I will tell you right now, I don't believe legalization is the cause of these issues. I think legalization is part of why we are learning more and more about these issues. There are so many people that are involved in the chain that have so much to lose financially, and I don't mean individuals, I mean huge corporations and these leagues. It is in their best interest as much as it is a bad look when this happens to root out every single one of these instances because you can't have bad actors. And they're always going to be bad actors. And we have talked about this on this show. Literally, the National League was formed in something like 1876. In 1877, there was a scandal about players who were fixing baseball games.

It is going to happen. It is time in memoriam. It is not going to stop people from betting. The amount of money that has wagered, every year gets bigger and bigger. Only now we have a much better understanding of what that money is and where that money is going. And people need to realize, we're catching them, because these are done through legal books. We're not talking offshore.

Well, that's what I mean. These are being done through legal books. That's why you need these legal books like Chad's saying here. It's like without it, we wouldn't catch these people. It'd all be offshore like it used to be. And there'd be no stories in the news. Like you're naive if you think this is something new is what I think we're both saying, right? But I don't want to turn this into like advocacy for sports betting

because we are both sort of shills in that regard. But I do think that back to. to the player props, that's the biggest challenge. You know, you mentioned a guy is making so much money. Why would he do it? Well, he's doing it for him. I don't know what Tara Rozier's financial situation is. I don't know who he was doing this for, why he was doing it, what the situation was in any capacity.

I do know that Tara Rezier is in the last year of a four-year $96 million contract. Yeah. Right? And so he's not Jean-Tay Porter. He's not the guy who's on a two-way deal at the end of the bench. bouncing around between the G League and the NBA and maybe $50,000 as a quick amount of cash means something to him. So we don't know what it is with Terry Razir. But the premise has always been that a lot of these leagues are protected from fixing scandals because the amount of money for the people who can impact the actual game is so high that it won't be worth it for them

to get caught up in this. But the props change that. The props change that. The props change. everything. And I think specifically in the NBA more than any other league, it's harder for a running back to always be in control of his own destiny because he doesn't know how many times he's going to get the ball, right? That's determined on the situation and the flow of the game. Same with baseball. It's really only controlled by the pitcher. And we've already seen in the case of the Guardians pitchers who have been suspended under investigation how that can be figured out because it is so egregious that there are monitoring agencies and the operators in the leagues that are working together

say, we've got some weird activity, we gotta flag this. The NBA, anybody, any individual player with all the markets that are available, as much as they are trying to limit the markets that are allowable, especially for end-a-bench players, that's an impossible scenario to police. That changes the argument about whether or not there is an amount of money that would keep people

from fixing a game because it's not about the game anymore. It's just about your individual performance. And even then, it's not about always doing badly. It's about just doing badly enough to make it look like it's not suspicious. That's the real insidious, dangerous part of what we're talking about here is that prop market, especially for the NBA.

I don't know how they fix it. I don't know either, but they've been trying for years. I mean, let's face it, the NBA, this isn't new. We never talk. about like the rep between the ref scandals the player scandals it's it's been there in this league for a long time i mean the greatest player in NBA history had a gambling scandal so you know they're they're in a really tough spot where whatever it is that nature that it goes handing in every sport has its degenerates i mean we had a guy on talking about pete rose some amazing stories but it just feels

like as we're going along here chat it just of all the leagues i have the least amount of trust in right now obviously air hockey you know that whole scandal and all that stuff bad and we're not talking about talking about the major sports NBA of the major sports right now it has my my eyes are definitely fixed on it and I have I just hope this is it I hope this is the end of it because it's just this could get really bad like we've talked about we haven't really talked about it's it's come apparent to a lot of people that the NBA hit its peak with LeBron and Golden State against Steph Curry, right? That was the ratings galore. The MLB has a real opening here because it's like a romanticizer. And I MAB has had a nice for such sense of coming back

to being a major sport. Its biggest scandal with its biggest player, it looks like they avoided it. And it's, I don't know about you, but like, Otani, he's the greatest player I've ever seen in my lifetime. So it's like, I get why they found a way out. They moved bridges to make that work. And like we always joke, he's one of us. Like it makes me love him even more, knowing the guy's a gambler. But the NBA stuff, it's not funny. It's not cute. This is scary stuff. It's within its league with its big players. Like Chad just said, I didn't know Terry made 90 million. That's, that's an insane amount of money. Four year, $96 million deal. So, yeah, it's, I'm sure you're going to get a ton of calls over the next week and they'll get more

in four on it. But as we say it right now is literally, I just checked. It's like nonstop texting right now from people in the industry, from people who are just waking up to this. They're truly astonished. They're blown away. Look, I'm a massive NBA fan. I watched League Pass constantly. I was on League Pass last night. I started with the Cavs and the Knicks.

Then I went over to the Bulls. I'm watching the Bulls and the Pistons. And Adam Amin and Stacey King, who are the Bulls play-by-play and color commentary, they're brilliant. I love them together. It's one of my favorite things is when the season starts. It's like watching my favorite game. I did see Vijay Edgecomen dominate. And Tyrese Max and go for 40.

And B. It went one for nine. But here's my point is Adam Amin is a brilliant play-by-play guy. And we've seen that this season. and he did that 15 innings Mariners game. He does NFL. He does the Bulls play by play. Last night they were playing the Pistons,

and they were talking about Duck and Robinson. And Duncan Robinson has replaced as a three-point threat, Malik Beasley. Malik Beasley, who had a record-setting year last year, had gotten a new contract from the Pistons. And then he was part of a gambling investigation, and that contract was pulled, and he's still on the street

because the investigation is, still happening. And, you know, Adam Amin was doing a brilliant job of explaining what it is and perfectly threading the needle, not being accusatory, not saying anything that was sort of a stretch about where the investigation is, but being specific that this was about prop betting, right? And Anne Malik Beasley. No joke. 30 seconds after he's done. An in-game promo for the betting sponsor, of the Chicago Bulls in the game comes up all about live player props you can be betting in the middle of that game.

And Adam Amin, to his credit, did not skip a beat. He did not try to gloss over it. He acknowledged the irony. He noticed the... He called out his producer. He's like, I can't believe you're doing this right now. It was brilliant.

I kind of feel like that's us right now. Like, there's a very serious thing happening, and we obviously have to talk about it. And you and I have both been very lucky and very successful in this particular industry for many, many years, both with the show and way beyond this show. And we're going to have a good time talking about these NFL games, but it's hard not to acknowledge the serious nature of what's happening and the ramifications on. the industry. So that's why we're going to keep talking about it and keep following up on what's happening with this investigation. It's, it's crazy. Chonzie Billups, terrorizier arrested by the FBI as part of the legal gambling investigations. Two days ago or yesterday, the NCAA passed the law allowing college athletes to bet to bet on pro sports with one of the guys who was on the

committee that allowed it basically saying, we got to acknowledge the universe we live in. and this is happening, which is how we ended up with legalized betting to begin with. And the NHL signed deals with multiple prediction market platforms, which have zero regulation. So here's where we are. People are going to say there needs to be regulation. People are going to sign deals with prediction markets who want to pay them a boatload of money that have no regulation. This is the state, the sports betting world that we live in.

Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. we created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it.

Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.

But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not. not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game.

This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear.

The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer-beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. SportsSlice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to SportsSlice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The NFL chugs on and we're going to have to figure out how we are telling our audience what we like in an upcoming weekend that, for our Thursday week eight episode, we need to narrow down the options on our quest to find five

picks that we can agree on. And I think it's hard because meanwhile, all this head twisting, mind bending, the Pandora's box as wide freaking open news is happening. And this may be the strangest week for betting so far this NFL season because we got the Buy McGettin. So we don't have a ton of games. And the games that are being played, there's been like half point movements at the most. on the games being played, except for one of them. The Chiefs have moved two points from 10 and a half to 12 and a half against the Washington commanders off of the confirmation of Jaden Daniel. So, man, you know, reminder, subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify.

It all sounds silly. Listen, every week, Simon, every single week, we give out our picks, and every single week your fellow pro gamblers call to yell at you or compliment you about the conversations we're having, because we know the wise guys are paying attention. It's time to summarize those opinions. It's time for sharp calls. Answer this phone. Telephone ring. Somebody saying, baby, what you do it? Yeah, an interesting week. I know you see you didn't love it. I'm on the other side.

I love these kind of weeks. Like, there just feels like it's, people view it as going to be a boring by the book type of week. And all I can just see is there's a, there could be a lot of madness and a lot of teams that need this week to get right. And when we talked about,

I still love the Panthers, but I'm surprised there are some real smart pros coming in on that bill side. And I'll read some stats, some trends I still think people are overlooking on this Panthers team, but it seems. like the pros I talk to want to fade any time they can and Andy Dalton start.

They just think he is absolutely finished. No idea I was still in this league with a job. So that's a game we'll break down. But I can tell you, I know some really smart money on the bills and they'll end up in our money and I'm not too upset about that now knowing there's so much love there. It's actually a great spot for Josh Allen to win outright.

The Bears, some real smart pros on the Bears here. Wow. Yeah, and it's, they just are not buying Lamar's right and they're also not buying this Ravens team they don't think it matters they're getting all these guys back healthy that this team is just not as good as people perceive I still think they're overlooking how hard of a schedule of this team had like yeah they lost the lines at home they lost to the Eagles at home that might be two of the best teams the NFC like I just I think the Ravens have just had a really brutal start to the year and professionals are still holding against them and they just are enamored with this bearer. team who have is it four straight covers they might have like they just been cashed for them they love them uh it's a raven scene that can't stop the run and going against a really really well-run team in the bears about running the ball so interesting game we'll have to break down some more

uh got a lot of love for my houston pick but i knew that was going to be the pro side and we'll get into that one it's just historically a horrible spot for the 49ers they tend to lose those type of games. The Jets, tons of love for the Jets love that we had on the Jets money line. But like we joked, not a shocker. Every week, the pros are going to bet them. Got a bunch of calls about the Giants. The pros, they're going to bet the Giants every week, not shocked at all. It's a moneymaker for them. So Chad was spot on about his call about the Saints. He said it's just going to be a team that pros are enamored with. We are like every pro I talk to. They're in the same boat as me. But again, I think it's a game we'll get into more about.

why we like them. Yeah, for sure. Surprisingly has not been good for the Saints to be at home. I couldn't believe I dive into their record at home. They just, there is, like you said, you're right. There is no true home field advantage for this Saints team like there used to be. And the last two, two games we love. Pros love Denver.

The pros love, the Steelers. I told you there are some pros on Green Bay. It's not as much as I thought it was going to be earlier in the week. I think their early love didn't make sense. But the more pros I talked to, it seems like the more they're on Pittsburgh. And that Dallas game does have some pros on it, but it's very, very more so the public on the Cowboys. And it's the pros for the most part on that Denver side.

So a lot of games that go through. I know it like Chad said, there's three by weeks. Surprisingly amount of love for the favorites this week from some professional I've talked to. So yeah, a very interesting week for this lineup. All right. Well, let's get into it. And let's start right away with Chicago at Baltimore. That number was at six and a half.

It is down to six at Hard Rock Bet. I thought by now it would have gone in the other direction. But Simon, the Baltimore Ravens, are going to be our brass balls, bed of the week presented by Hard Rock. Bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. We think today is crazy with news. Yesterday, the first text I see in the morning is from a buddy in the Chicago text group that sent it overnight a video of Lamar Jackson allegedly at a late night hot food truck in Baltimore, ordering loads and loads of food,

not looking like he's connected to the conscious world. And because, you know, of the world we live in today, I immediately thought, well, this is weird. And of course, by the end of the day, Lamar had said that wasn't true. It was an AI video. and, you know, like, I don't know if that had an impact on the move at all, but meanwhile, he did not practice yesterday, but it was limited in practice.

It was a walkthrough. He was taking the third string snaps. And I got a text in the middle of the day from my buddy, Mark Silverman, who's better known as Sylvie. He hosts the very popular show, Waddle and Sylvie, on ESPN Radio in Chicago. and asked me what the line would be if Lamar wasn't playing. And it hadn't occurred to me that he wouldn't be playing. So that's when I went to check, like, what's happening with the practice report and saw. I think if Lamar Jackson's not playing, it's pick, maybe the Bears are minus one.

Did you see what Houston did to the Ravens two weeks ago? I did. They got embarrassed by Houston team that's, we can have both agreed, not the greatest team in the world. They beat them by like 30 points. I mean, what are we doing here? Well, I'm assuming that the Ravens are going to be significantly more healthy on defense. And as they did last year, in the second half of the year, they gave Zach Orr tremendous amount of help to figure out how to fix that freaking defense. And they got better at it.

I'm banking on a little bit of president here and a little bit of health. But here's the bigger question. Lamar is playing. The line's down to six. We've made it our brass balls better the week. Here's a stat from our friend John Ewing who tweeted this yesterday. Are you ready? This is good for us.

Put us back together. Since 2003, teams that have won 20% or fewer of their games, so the Baltimore Ravens, and our favorites against an opponent with a winning record, 56% against the spread. I just think this is a great spot for the Ravens if Lamar is playing and he's healthy. and, you know, I think we're hoping that he is. That's why we made it the brass balls. The brass balls part here is betting on the fact that Lamar is going to be playing and thinking we're getting the Ravens at less than a touchdown.

Because I do think they'll fix some of the issues on defense. I think they've gotten healthier. And I think that the bearer's defense is going to have real issues against this rushing offense. You didn't even give out the best part of that stat. So that exact team you just talked about, the team with 20% fewer wins, as a favorite of three points or more in this spot, those teams, 30 and 14, 68% against the spread. That's right. That's right. I forgot that.

I didn't forget it. It's a Raven spot, you know, historically. We've seen after biweek's hardball has done well, I think he's 10 and 7, ATS after his bioweak. And, you know, we're fading a Bears team that they're on our role right now. Like we were talking, I don't know if that was, you know, on the show or before the show, but they're four, they've covered in one four straight games. Yeah.

Like, this is normally a team we try to avoid because they are so high right now. They're playing so well and the books keep undervaluing them. And the pros are joining. I mean, like you just said, this is down to six of hard rock because there is so much unknown about what's up a little more. But I am banking on it all being smoke screens and him being a total difference to make of this team. even if he is missing that half a step, him pushing the ball downfield. They got Isaiah likely back as well, which I think is going to be huge for them.

But that's what's been lacking. Like Cooper Rush can't put the ball downfield and there's no threat to run. So Derek Henry has just had a stack box and they've been able to just put one-on-one on the outside. So, well, Marr changes everything. There's a reason every year he's in it for MVP. Me and you are simply betting on the unknown here, which is scary. But we have to take the value. This is a great number, a great line for a Ravens team that everything we've seen,

they should be healthy in a get right spot here against the bears. And like we said, the trends that love this spot as well for this Ravens team. Baltimore Ravens minus six at Hard Rock Bet right now. Unfortunately, I bet him at six and a half, but we are on them. We are on the Ravens outers our brass balls bet of the week. Sponsored by Hard Rock Bet. I have the New York Giants plus seven and a half at Philly. there are actually three touchdown or four touchdown games that I thought about putting in here.

You mentioned the Carolina Panthers are seven and a half at the bill with hosting the bills. Miami is seven and a half at Atlanta. Cleveland is seven at New England. You brought up the Panthers in sharp calls. I went with this one because it feels like the best combination of point spread value, getting the hook. situational value because it's the divisional game and matchup value, I don't have a strong opinion on any of them anymore, to be honest. So I would like a little bit of clarity. What do you mean? Like, why are the pros betting the Giants? No, no, no, no. I mean like,

if we were to have to include one of these four in our final five, I lean to the Giants. I think I'm off the Panthers for the same reason, the why. guys that you said in the sharp calls and we hadn't discussed this, I just don't trust Andy Dalton. This is a really good running team and I think it's a really good running team because of the things Bryce Young can do in the pocket and Andy Young and Andy Dalton can't do those things. So and a little bit concerned that the bills are getting some key players back or haven't been with them all season on the defensive side of the ball who could help with the rush. So I walked away from that one,

and I think I'm most leaning into the Giants at seven and a half. Okay. I got some good stats for that Bill's game. We could talk about this Giants game for now. I probably have come around more to the Giants side hearing why guys are pitching it. I'm fine with just simply having the Eagles in my money line around Robin, and I can eat that seven and just get a seven and a half

by one of the Giants. You're right. It's probably still too inflated of a number in a matchup that the Eagles just haven't proven they can close teams out. They haven't played two good halves of football this year. It's been their Achilles heel all season, no doubt. Could they beat this Giants team by 20? Yes, this is a Giants team that lost their number one receiver

and as dominant as their pass rush has been, you would think the Eagles, would that offensive line to be able to get some stops against those guys? But the Eagles line's hurt. Like we've talked about that. Off the line is just injured. Yeah. It's the main reason is Sakewonk ain't.

going so i agree giants out of all those guys i i i agree with you that's probably the the best one but it's also just be cautious it's like it's uh this giant's team we saw what can happen with that right like in that saints game what was a five straight turnovers we know we're bent into we're bent into a rookie quarterback on the road and divisional game with an offense that he's making it work but like we said, they're just, they're not real weapons on the outside. So, um, yeah, there's, there is some hesitation from me, but I'll draw on the pros. Of those four games, I see why value. Of those four games that I mentioned that are all seven, seven and a half, Giants Eagles, Bill's Panthers, uh, Browns, New England and Miami at Atlanta. If we had to put one of those in,

I'm worried we're like, I think we have four games we love. And, And I think we're struggling to find a fifth of those four games. Would you put any of those in? I mean, I like, like I talk about the Patriots is a horrible spot. I haven't a crazy stat about that game, too. It's the trap of traps. I still like the Patriots. I just, I can't find, I can't find the points for the Browns.

So that's a game we're definitely going to put in and lose, no doubt about Patriots. But. For the record, I haven't bet any of these games yet. So if we put one of these in. Do you want me to give you my stat for that Panthers? Yeah, give it to me. Yeah. It's what we've been talking about at Nauseum,

about these home dogs early in the year when it crosses seven. You can say it's lazy, and we just keep cashing it. It keeps hitting. It's just, it is what it is with the trend, and it's all about the spot where these home teams are undervalued. There's a road favorite, like the bills that are being priced like they were last year now. Let's just dive into the trend. So in the first nine games of the year, okay, what are we in chat?

Is this week eight? Yes. They fit this home teams seven plus points, seven points or more, 40 and 11 against the spread at home. So we've hit this a bunch of times already this season. It's worked for us. We did the Giants. What was that two weeks to go against the Eagles on that Thursday game? Yeah.

Was that, no, I don't know if the Bengals were home. Was that Bengals game in Green Bay? I forget with a flacko, but they were like a 10-point dog. That bangles game was, I can't remember. I think it was in Cincinnati. The only time we've lost his bet is with Tennessee. So that's how good it's been where we bet these bad teams it comes through. Now, I looked in these stats, Josh, Josh Allen, after a bye week in his career, 8-0, straight up.

So this is a no-brainer going to be in our money-on-run, Robin, auto spot for Allen. Historically, he's performed really well in these type of matchups. And I thought it was interesting, this stat from our guys at BetLabs. And this also includes our Broncos. Panthers and Broncos, both won three straight games by seven points or less. Over the last decade, teams that fit that description, 30 and 46 against the spread. So 40%, okay, not egregious. But when they're listed as an underdog, which our Panthers are here,

they are 10 and 26 straight up 12, 23 and 1 against the spread. That's bad. Exactly. Those are both bad things for us. Well, mainly for the Panthers, a little bit for the Broncos, but really for the Panthers where it's like, I've been trying to find ways for me to stay away from this one. And like anything, any lazy stat, like I had a buddy send me a stat. It was like, yeah, the bills, franchise history, 3 and 0 against the spread and straight up against

this Panthers team. Yeah, and useless stat. But I love it because it's like, okay, maybe I can avoid this game. So like you said, bills are getting a bunch of guys back, Hellefi. I was going to auto play this one, but Andy Dalton, 1 in 5, ATS as a backup coming in and being a starter, is one win, one cover. Chad probably remembers it was against the Raiders. They, like, won by like 20 points on this horrible Panthers team.

Then he lost four straight. That's right. That's right. I'm glad we can avoid this one. We'll have the bills in our money line around Robin. Maybe throw them in a couple teasers, but yeah, this is, I thought was a panthering. their spot, I thought the trends liked it. More I read into it, it's become more of a bill spot.

Let's talk about a game that we know we're going to like. San Francisco at Houston. Houston is a one-point favorite at Hard Rock Bet. This was Simon says, I hope people got it because at a lot of other places, it's moved to one and a half. And the Niners had even more injuries on defense on Sunday. And I think they're having a really hard time getting pressure without Bosa. and that has been the biggest problem for C.J. Stroud.

We saw a lot of that against the Seahawks. So I'm feeling more and more comfortable, even though we've got a flipped line here just for a moment on the Texans. And as you mentioned it in sharp calls. So give me your take on why we're still feeling comfortable. I thought your brother says something real crazy there. Yeah, for it's... So I'm walking away.

Well, it's always funny. Like, I'm out about and I ran in a couple of buddies who do listen to our show. And they're like, dude, are you the sucker for taking a two and four Houston team against a five and two four-niners team when their favorite? Like isn't this an easy bet on the 49ers? I'm like, when you say something like that to me, it makes me more confident on Houston where it's like,

I'm hoping more people think like he is where they're overlooking a lot of underlying stuff with this 49ers team. And like you said, the injuries is the biggest one. But to me, it's the trends. Shanahan, whatever it is, he's moved in this era that his teams just don't get up for games after wins. since 2023, so like late December, 2023, 49ers, 1 and 13 against the spread after a straight-up win.

And they're failing to cover those spreads by seven and a half points. So that's not just a little bit of data. That's over two years now. Like, 2023, December, that was a long time ago. Just a different team after these wins in the sense that they just don't cover. Like the fact that they get overvalued by the general. Republic after wins just shows that's happening time and time again in the market so um i really like that stat for houston and i i immediately thought to myself okay well let's dive into what chat

talked about right the the defense um how how are they been and how how is the 40 owners offense against really good defenses and you know their last nine games against defenses again this is a shanan stat again defense that allowed 17 points or less per game which is that's the Houston's bread and butter right now. They're a great defensive team. Shanehan's 1 and 8 against the spread on the road or neutral sites since 2022. He's actually lost five straight in this exact spot. So already kind of loved Houston here because what Chad talked about, there's a ton of injuries to this 49ers team. I felt like this was a get right spot for Houston that just got embarrassed on a short week.

This is kind of the perfect recipe of them to get that taste out of their mouth, move on to the next weekend this 49ers team. Now with all the unknown of Purdy and a banged up Mac Jones, and we still, we don't know who the quarterback is for this week. I just think there's so much going on now, this 49ers team. Them being five and three with all they've gone through, that makes more sense than this Houston team totally laying another egg at home here and the 49ers moved to six and two. This feels like a bad spot plus 49ers team on the flip side.

Houston, their defense, this should be a great matcher for them in the sense that. They have two limited quarterbacks. They have two really good Ed Ruchers on their team. And like we said, that defense, they put him in a spot to win against the Seahawks. The CJ just screwed us over. And Chad talked about it. CJ has no pass rush fear. That tends to be when he shines.

So I'm glad you've come around this Texas team. I know it feels gross. I get why on Tuesday you were like, I hate this, but it just feels like it's a number you have to play in a spot. We have to bet. Yeah, I mean, that's, you know, like none of us are immune to recency bias. And so it takes a minute. It takes a minute to come around. Especially when it's like 24 hours, you know.

I know. It's really hard. Yeah. really hard. New York Jets plus six and a half at Cincinnati. I've been trying to avoid this one. I mean, like, we're going to have to find five bets that we love, and it makes no sense that the Bengals are six and a half point favorites over anyone. If we know Tyrod Taylor is starting on Sunday, and we still have 48 hours to truly understand if he is, it feels like it might have to make it into one of our favorites. The first five weeks of the year, the Jets played struggling or bad

defenses in the Steelers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Bucks, and Bills, average 23 points a game. The Bengals have allowed fewer than 27 points once this season. It is just a dreadful, dreadful, defense. It's the kind of defense that might be Aaron Glenn and Jets proof. You know what I mean? And so, I don't know, I'm not going to waste people's time on it, but if you want to just, if you don't like any of other bets and you're like, what's the grossest bet that I have to bet this week because it's a long-term winner? This Jets is a long-term winner. I know it doesn't feel like it, but it's a unique spot.

It's, I mean, there's tons of stats. Like teams that are owned for, like they are, and they go on the road, they tend to cover these exact games. It's only the only other team owned four this year that's gone on the road and covered was the Titans. The Titans did it. So that's what I mean. Like, it's usually a spot for these teams.

So, I mean, the Titans could do it. God damn, Jets. You got to do it as well. But I'm with you. I'm not going to enforce this into our contest. I'm not going to make people bet this one. But yes, I will be on the Jets. We will put them in our money lounge, Ron Robin.

And I hate it to people. That's gross. We're just going to do it. We're, it's just, I feel like it's happening. I feel like we can't avoid it. I feel like it's the beacon that is drawing us in. Tampa Bay at New Orleans. You mentioned this in Sharp Calls.

That number is down to three and a half at Hard Rock Bad. Wow. That's a big move. So it's gone down two full points now. And, look, you mentioned, Baker is a little bit banged up. We know Mike Evans is out. Godwin, Emeka, Buka was not at full speed in that game the other night. I just don't trust the Saints. I feel like everyone is trying to force the Saints down my throat. Like we have to be betting on the Saints and they're a

wise guy team. And like, I hear it all. Spencer isn't as bad as a record and he's really good against pressure and he hasn't made turnover worthy plays. They're really unlucky. I hear it all. And like we see the imbalance between the bets and the money. The bucks are getting 70% of the bets and the Saints are getting 70% of the money. Like it is 100% the sharp side, the Saints. We've seen the activity. We've seen the number move. Huge reverse line movement,

meaning that the bets are coming in on the box and the line is moving in the direction of the Saints. Fishing. Yeah. It doesn't mean it's the right side. just because the pros are on it, but it's, like I said, you should have grabbed the four and a half, should have grabbed the five and a half,

that was going to be the pro side, just because it's a number that is inflated, and just because of the injuries. Like, Chad said it. No Godwin, no Mike Evans, no Buckeye Irving. Like, Mekabuka is not full strength. That's a big deal. Like, those things do matter.

The thing you can hang your head on, it's Baker versus Spencer Rattler. And Rattler and the Saints team, they have not been good at home. Like even this year, they have not really been covering. Even though I thought they played well at home, surprisingly, they have not been covering at home. So you're right, probably overvalued by professionals.

I talked a little bit about it, like how weird of this Bucks team is, like minus one point differential. And Evan Amos had an amazing stat about it. Basically, they're the first team since 2022 to be eight games in with a winning percentage like that and a negative point differential. or the other two teams or the Browns and the bills, neither of them ended up covering in this exact spot in this week. Because it's like it's just simply a team that plays close,

undervalued, overvalied by the market. That makes sense. Baker's career, I've talked about it, like him as a dog, always feel better taking Baker as a dog. Yeah. Really hate taking Baker as a favorite, let alone a favorite against divisional opponents in his career.

He's played 21 games against divisional opponents as a favorite. he is 7 and 14 against the spread. So since he's been drafted of the 82 starters in the league, he is the worst win percentage against divisional foes as a favorite. So just understand what you're betting into here. If you are taking the buck's side, it's not a good number. It's not a good side. Like Chad's saying, this Saints team,

no one's going to feel good a bed in them, right? They have not probably, you're probably right. They don't not deserve to be getting this much line movement. It is now down to three and a half at Hard Rock. I'm not going to force that in. Like to me, four and a half, five and a half, I felt confident there. I won't chase this number, but I still think if you want to bet this, I don't think it's moved enough.

I have it at three. You're still getting a good number technically on this Saints team, but I need every point. I need every point if I'm going to bet Spencer Rattler. And it was the same reason last week. I didn't force them in with us against that Bears team because it's like, it was Spencer Rattler outdoors in the elements. I'm just not going to get there.

So, yeah, it's, It's not great for Baker. And Baker's short career with the books as a favorite on the road. He's four and five against the spread. So it's just, it's not a good Baker spot. That's what I'm trying to get people understanding. Just don't force this one in this week. We said it's a short week, not many options.

Either play the Saints or don't play this number at all. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. If you want to bet on sports this week, roll with the Hard Rock Bet app. Week 8 kicks off with the Vikings versus Chargers. Check out these streaks from Hard Rock. Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub.

You can find odds to bet on all these streaks right now in the Hard Rock Bet app. Minnesota has lost five in a row as underdogs off of a lost. Justin Herbert has thrown for 260 yards or more against NFC North opponents in four straight games. His over is 257 and a half. If you like that, you can bet it with live odds right there in the Hard Rock Bet stats hub. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150

in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet, and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. Plus, tonight on Hard Rock Bet. You can get a Thursday night, parley boost for the game. Boost your same game parlay or SGP Max, so your bet pays extra winnings. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got any day of the week. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposits. Offered by the Seminole Tribal of Florida in Florida.

offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions imply. Conserved about gambling in Florida, call 1-833 playwise. In Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-8009 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast?

Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But, this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should

call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this.

We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title

for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. and we don't care where you hear it.

Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app. or wherever you get your podcasts.

Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies,

and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls,

we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Do you want to talk that Patriots Brown's game or no? I don't know what to do with it because it feels like the spot where we should be completely walking away if we know better from the Browns because it's not where they are.

It's like, we found a winning formula. No, no, I'm on New England. Aren't you on New England with me? Yeah, yeah, yeah, totally. So I am on New England. I don't know how the Browns are getting any points. Like Dylan Garibald is not an NFL quarterback. That's it.

I saw this amazing stat. It goes to the Patriots on the Bears. And it's basically about these teams. teams on these four plus game ATS win streaks like straight up and against the spread. So those teams that didn't, this is again, Evan Abrams amazing stat, those exact teams that didn't make the playoffs last year. And now they're on four plus game winning streaks straight up and against the spread. In this exact spot, they are 14, 26, and 1 against the spread. Since 2022, they are 1 and 14 against the spread in this spot. So it is like,

I know exactly. We're walking into betting this Patriots team. We're stepping under it. And like, to be clear, like, I shouldn't say I bet it. I have not, other than the Panthers who I bet. They were six and a half at a couple of books. I took that. I, like, I have not bet the Falcons.

I have not bet the Giants and I have not bet the Patriots. And I'm not sure that I will. The only bet I have of those. Let me give you a picture said to make you feel better then. Well, hold on. The only, the only game I've. that of those four seven to seven and a half point spreads is the panthers and that's only because i bet it in the summer when i thought the line would be much shorter because i was so in on the panthers

go ahead so just this year this this feels like a variable stat the patriots when they go up by a touchdown or more so six plus points they're five and no straight up and against the spread this season that's why you bet it you bet variable exactly that's what i'm like thinking in this game i'm trying to throw it all the numbers where it's like that that sums up the variable type of team he's going to be this year where it's like if he if he gets up a lead in this game i just how do the browns come back so um chad's right we should try to avoid this one i don't think i'm going to be able to i'll be shocked come sunday morning like i'm going to probably bet in the patriots minus seven i just i can't get over how two how different this browns team is on the road and how bad of

a spot is for their quarterback uh so yeah it just terrible it's it's interesting those those trends pointing to it being a bad spot for the patriots but they feel a little bit of a little bit like a unicorn here. Terrible. Dallas at Denver, Denver minus three now. This was Chats' Choice when it was three and a half. It moved in my direction basically because I move lines. And so nothing really moving me off of this pick other than nightmares of Bow Nicks

throwing into empty spots in the middle of a zone. which he is not as good as he is against man to man. And unfortunately, Matt Ibrough-Fluz loves to play zone, except for last week when he played man-to-man against third and fourth string receivers. So I liked when you said the wise guys were on this because I very much wanted to be a Broncos game. Yeah.

I was really confident this one or two. I misspoke. I misspoke. I misspoke. I'm sorry. I bet this at three. It moved up to three and a half. And now it's back down to three at Hard Rock Bet.

I apologize. I move lines. Yeah, when we talk to Tuesday, I was really confident this one. Really loves Denver here. Technically not the best. Just because Chad's talked about. We're backing Bo Nix,

who as good as he's been this year, with all these crazy comfort behind wins, we're telling people to take him at minus three. minus three and a half as a favorite. Like that's not ideal for a quarterback that seems like he can't roll these teams. Like we need him to roll Dallas because Dak's going to get his. We already talked about. Dak is one of the few quarterbacks I can remember that is on an incredible run

with a terrible defense when he's not turning the ball over. He's just playing so smart. Like the biggest thing we can take away from deck is hoping for three and outs. And we have that. We've talked about it. This Broncos front should give them real problems. And, you know, historical data. talked a lot of older guys who talked about, you know, this is a unique spot where the

Broncos tend to always own this Cowboys team. Doesn't matter who the quarterbacks are, who the coaches are. You can go way back. And I was like, all right, is that true? And I did look last time Dallas beat Denver was with Troy Aikman. So it's been a rough go for Dallas historically against this Denver team. And I think me and you are really banking on the defense. I know Bo Nix, we're going to need to move the ball. We're going to need him to score. but I like to think Sean Payne can scheme it around this terrible Dallas defense. There's going to be plenty of options and holes. We just can't have him do what he's been doing, which is slow starts.

Like he puts themselves in these holes, and then we're asking Bo Nix to throw us out of these holes, which is not a specific way to be in. So, yeah, I know I've had a couple of people send me those trends, teams that basically come from behind like they did. It's horrible for them historically the following game, right? They tend to not cover, but me and Chad always say, there's a 36%

stat on the other side of that trend. So we're just hoping Bose that 36%. We just need him to show up here. And it really is a bet, though, on that Broncos front. Like if we get pressure on DAC, tack's due to have a letdown game. He's been so flawless. They, you know, the weapons they have,

Dallas, this historically should be a bad matchup for them. So pretty unique spot, right? The total, I believe, in this one's 50 is well. Bo Nix, his career, total is above 45 as a favorite. He's 0 and 3 straight up and against the spread. So to prove a game for Bo Nix. You're getting a bad defense. You need to put up points. This is not going to be the type of game you're going to be able to win 20 to 10, right? I think that's going to get his. So we're betting on we're betting on Bo Nix here, Chad, but I will stay with you. I will still back this Broncos team, especially at minus three. I think that's a great number.

It makes me nervous. I'm not going to lie, but I'm in. I'm totally. Julian. Green Bay at Pittsburgh, the last game we're discussing, purely a play, purely a play. It's Pittsburgh plus three, purely a play on the Steelers as dogs at home. We do like what we've seen from Pittsburgh as a defense now that everyone has returned from injury, especially Alex Highsmith. Why do you laugh at me? We know what happened last year against the Bengals, but, you know. Yeah, but generally, generally. I also am not that. That's not, that sentence, people are going to be like, what the hell is this guy talking about? Yeah. We know people. Like when we said, Like when we said the Bears would be 11-point favorites on the road and an 18-point swing.

I'm not a buyer of this Packers team. Like they just don't seem to be able to be as great as their individual talent right now. I don't know what's going on there. But this is the Rob, right-round Mike Thomas. That's it. That's all we're betting here. Again, one of us watched the Ravens play Houston. All of us were out, Apple Pickham.

Oh, my God. I don't know why they're gallabanting. It's very bizarre. Yeah, no-brainer. We're never going to avoid this game. We're going to get burned by it, but historically we won't. Like long-term.

We're going to get burned by everything this week. Well, it just feels like it feels too easy. I don't know to you, but it's like I can't believe I'm still able to get Pittsburgh here at three and a half. It just feels bizarre. I don't know who's betting Green Bay minus three and a half other than smart professionals

because the public, they're taking the threes. They're happy to take the minus threes and on this Packers team. What we really have to dive into is just what we talked a little bit about with Tomlin after his defense gets embarrassed. He bounces back. You know, the numbers prove that out. After allowing 30 plus points, Tomlin's defenses, 29, 12, and 1 against the spread. 71%.

That's insane. Let the greatest of all time look at your work. When they're at home after a bad defense of a performance like that, 21, 8 and 1. 72% under Tomlin against the spread. So it's like, all right, those are stats we were looking for. That proves out our point that he gets his defenses up after those type of games. And a lot of it's being made in the media about Rogers playing against his former team. The trends actually don't point to that being a good spot.

Basically, every quarterback that's played their former team failed to cover except Drew Brees, who covered and beat the Chargers. So I guess historically, it shows that these guys get in their own heads. It's a big moment, and it's tough for them to just play the game, not overthink things and get emotional, playing their former team. But we also have some nice historical stuff on our side. The Packers just aren't good in Pittsburgh. Their last six games are only six, the last 50 years. So that last time they won was in 1970.

And, you know, it's crazy to think Pittsburgh, the last time they started that run of beating Green Bay at home. It was Terry Bradshaw beating, you know, a Bart, a Bart Star-led team. So it's been a long time. You're betting Green Bay. You're betting on something that hasn't happened in 50 years, people. So I love all those trends that point to Tomlin. I love that we talked about with the defense. They seem to get right in these exact spots.

And I just think our view of Green Bay is right, that they're just something's wrong with them. They're not fully formed. Either the offense is just a little off. Their defense still isn't right. I think we're getting a good value here on this Pittsburgh team that we talked about. They got embarrassed last week. Their defense got embarrassed. Tomlin usually has those guys bounce back in the spot.

So trends love it. We love it. Can't avoid it. Gonna hammer this one. Probably be one of my bigger bets this week. Well, let's talk about that. I will review where we stand heading into Sunday at the end of the show. But you're bringing up your biggest bets.

What are Simon's biggest bets? Pull up those pants and be a man. honestly, I've not gone too crazy yet this week because of all the unknowns with injuries and stuff. Like, they're going to pretty big position in Houston just because I was worried that number was going to shoot up to two and a half. It really is held pretty strong at its point. I'll get there on Pittsburgh. I'm really going to be doing these money line favorites. Like, I just don't see a world where the Patriots lose.

I don't see a world where the bills lose to Andy Dolton. Like the bills are super desperate. So this week, just like last week, I got to. talked about i threw a lot of those favorites together i think we went five and one or four and one on the favorite money line like it's just it's how it is right now people like you can say you're we're getting lucky like yeah did i feel like i got lucky with denver's money line yeah green bay's money line like that game came down to a fourth and two where green bay went for and they got it and scored a touchdown like i know it's just the way the league is now the chalk keeps winning so um

i get why you don't love the spreads this week to me it just feels like the books have gotten really sharp with these lines so you know Denver minus three I'm going to take a position on it will be one of my bigger bets now I'd much rather have a ton of money on Hertz money line and Josh Allen's money line than Bo Nix on the spread so it is a tough week with that where it's like I just I don't trust some of these guys and I'm having to take positions on them just because the number is right but to me you know that Ravens game if Lamar is cleared I'm probably going to take I know chat can't believe I think it's a 14 point swing but I'm telling you Cooper rush is that bad. I think Lamar is that big of an improvement, that offense. And even if his legs

aren't fully back, his arm is good enough now. Say Flowers, Isaiah likely, all those pieces there. I think it's a, it's a great match for this Ravens team against a Bears team that, you know, incredible run by this Bears team, but eventually it's going to catch them. They just can't keep covering these games. Can they chat? So I hate that we've missed that. I know it's your team, but I have to sell the Bears at some point. It feels like, oh, I'm there. I'm totally there. Um, all right, let's talk about our, before we get to the favorite parlay, let's talk about our underdog parlay. Oh, likes your dog, your dog likes my dog. Steelers.

Steelers. Jets. Jets. Um, get them saints. Saints. Now, this is where it gets tough. Yeah, this is where it gets a little tricky. I mean, um, course it once seven and no on Thursday night games.

Did you see that stupid stat? Oh, really? Yeah, it's incredible. I don't love doing a Thursday night game. Like, people can't take advantage of that. I want to get a little taste of that one. How about the Giants? I can't see it, but I'll take the value.

You're right. It's plus 330. That's a good number. I don't think they've been the Eagles in back-to-back. So beat them twice in the season since 2007. Carolina? Can't get there. I just can't.

I mean, for being honest, we should put the bears in in case Lamar doesn't play. Yeah, that's a good idea. Again, I have nothing on their number, but a plus 2.30, if it comes out, like, people, Chad thinks it's crazy. People on the show him, I think it's crazy. I just, that's how low I am on Cooper Rush.

I just could not get over how horrible his film has been since he's been a Raven. So if I was M, I'd have took the other backup. Like, just, he is doing zero for their offense. He's just horrible. So, yeah, that's, that line can easily flip. If it's not Lamar, it could easily see that become a plus plus three, plus three and a half Ravens line. Favorites, Parley, Patriots, Bills, Chiefs.

Take the Chiefs down to minus five and a half or minus six and a half. Colts, take the Colts down to minus five and a half, minus six and a half. Got to put Denver in. We both believe in them. Yeah. So. Okay. Pat's bills, chiefs that are an outline of five and a half, six and a half.

Colts that are an outline of five and a half, six and a half. And then Denver, that is our favorites parlay. Again, the underdog parlay. Steelers, Jets, Saints, Giants. No, who did we say? Steelers, Jets, did we say Giants? No, we did put Giants in the Air, plus 3.30. Steelers, Jets, Saints, Giants.

And then for Survivor, don't hate Patriots this week. Don't. I'm just, I'm not going to do it personally just because for my contest, I still have the Colts. And I just, I'm trying to go super safe. So Survivor, I am going Colts. Don't hate Patriots. And, you know, obviously, if you are a wild child, you could do Cincinnati Bengals on the

flaco, but I just, I can't get there. I know some pros that are doing it because they're like, when am I going to use the Bengals again? I just, I cannot do it. I cannot trust Flacco. Who are you doing for Sharper Square? I mean, I guess I got to do it. I got to take Pittsburgh.

Give me the Steelers plus three or three and a half, whatever I can get. All right. So Steelers for you there. I am going to take a ton of options here. It's an ugly week. It's an... I love it, though.

It's so ugly. Like, I might have to double up. I think I have to go with Denver. Don't do that. Don't put your eggs on one basket. Why don't you do the Giants? You like them, seven and a half. All right.

Let me, you know what? Don't double down. Don't do it. You know what I'm going to do? It's crazy. But I'm feeling lucky. Okay. New York Jets.

Taking the Jets, six and a half? I'm doing. doing it. I love it. Look at you. New York Jets. Sharp versus Square. You're taking the Steelers at three and a half. I'm taking the Jets at six and a half. That's how we roll on this show. What a crazy, crazy day. This has been Sharper Square, part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. You'll each drop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon as we make utterly human decisions and regret the rest of the day. We We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, 7.30 p.m. Eastern to recap all that misery,

watch or listen on YouTube. At Sharper Square, I like this video, subscribe with the channel. Also, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it up. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions.

Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. week my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Winning on Clay is an art. The rallies are relentless. And at the French Open, only the toughest survive.

I'd know. I competed there for decades. Join me, Renee Stubbs, on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast. for no nonsense breakdowns of the biggest matches, the toughest players, and the moments that define Roland Garris. She's an outsider to win the French fame. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lennar Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now

and I actually can win on any surface. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in.

I'm Timbo, and every episode we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed human.