The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - Super Bowl LX Analysis with John Middlekauff

Episode Date: February 4, 2026

Super Bowl LX between the underdog New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks kicks off this Sunday! Betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter welcome NFL guru John Middlekauff for a special episode sponsored by ZBiotics. Go to https://zbiotics.com/SHARPORSQUARE and use code SHARPORSQUARE at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics. John Middlekauff is a Volume podcast colleague and the host of the wildly popular football show 3 & Out, available now on Netflix. Together our trio discusses the Super Bowl matchup, including the redemption arcs for Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold and New England coach Mike Vrabel. We hear John's initial thoughts on the game, as well as his opinion on the Patriots' defense and the skillset of wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Will quarterback Drake Maye and running back Rhamondre Stevenson do enough for the underdog Patriots to win outright? Or will Seattle's young defensive genius Mike Macdonald prove too much for them? All of these questions answered and more. #Volume 0:00:00 - START 0:09:05 - GUEST JOHN MIDDLEKAUFF -- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper. It makes the wise guys. Pay attention. I am Chad Milman. And I am joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, my co-host, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

Hello, Chad. How was your first non-football weekend in six months, brother? It was wild. My wife and I went down on Thursday to Philly, as you know. We took the train down from Connecticut, got in right in time to have dinner. with our older son, who's at Drexel and is a senior, and went to a great restaurant, went back to the hotel, woke up the next morning, left early, went down to D.C.

My wife came back to Connecticut. I went to D.C. And met my younger son, and we went to see the Wizards Lakers game. And it was awesome. Like, you know, we really just wanted to see LeBron before, in case he was retiring this year. And this was a good opportunity to do it. They were up by 40 early in the third quarter.

The Lakers were. LeBron was jumping out of the gym like he was 18 years old. Luca had a triple double in the first half. Well, it was, even for a 40-point blowout, it was freaking wild. And Sunday was the weirdest day. You know, I'm working on this book, but I feel like I'm in decent shape, and I've got a little transition moment right now. I watched movies for part of the day.

I watched like two, I watched Wolf of Wall Street last night. Like I didn't know what to do with myself. Awesome. I said, it's a great day. I went to San Diego. Got away for the weekend. Yeah, I live in the good life. I usually go to Florida and meet up with the boys,

but a lot of the pros I know were like, dude, it's kind of cold in Florida. Let's do San Diego instead. So last minute, went to San Diego. San Diego, went to PB, if you don't know that is. Pacific Beach hung out. Did you surf? Nope. Save that for Jersey.

I did not bring a wetsuit with me to Cali, but no, it's just those people are so spoiled. Going from New Jersey, eight degrees to people are like bundled up there. I was walking around a T-shirt and shorts. It was just so nice to feel the sun. But yeah, quick trip in and out three days and yeah, right back to work. The most surprising thing to me, we're going to get into this with our guests. and talk about the game, but something shocked me before we came on the air. You went surfing in New Jersey today?

Yeah, we had a big storm come through if people don't realize. We didn't get hit up here in the north, but North Carolina got absolutely hit by a snowstorm. It basically blew off the sea, and those waves, they do go from down the south up to the north. And, yeah, we had some big waves up here in Jersey. So I went out and, yeah, Chad was shocked to know that a wet suit could keep you warm, but it's warm enough. Like in, in five inch thick, it's good enough. It really is incredible. And yeah, I told him, I ate it.

So I had a rough go of it. Obviously, I'm an old man, not like the old days. We're basically, if I go out there, I have to catch my breath for about 20 minutes where you can catch a wave because it's, it's that rough just getting out there. That's how big a waves are right now. So, yeah, it's, it's, I don't want to say, Dane. dangerous, but I told Chad, I almost died. So I basically ate one and just paddle right back and I just basically did. I'm too old for this shit kind of moment. Paddled back and the waves were too big for me. So wasted my time driving down there, but never

never a bad day you can get in the water. Dude, you're going to have so many more of those moments. I cannot tell you. They happen too regularly now. It's kind of depressing. I had one of those moments where on Friday night, the game ends at 930, 10 o'clock, whatever it is. And I I'm going back to my hotel because I'm leaving super early the next morning on Saturday. And my kid takes the, what is it, the metro or metro? I can't remember what it's called in D.C. Back out to college park, you know, because he goes to Maryland. Quick 20, 25 minute ride.

He gets back at 10 or 10.30, whatever it is. And he was going out that night. I'm like settling in, couldn't be more comfortable. And he's just getting raring to go. I'm like, I can't do that. I couldn't do that when I was 20. I don't say, you haven't been to do that in a long time, my friend. No.

It's when I got to use my pre-alcohol, which we'll get to. This is our Tuesday Super Bowl week preview episode, and we do have another very special guest, which we will get to in a minute. But there's been more big news this week, and it's all related to the Super Bowl. I don't know if you were surprised by this, but the Vikings fire,

their GM, Coesi, Adolfo Mensa. And, you know, on the surface, it looked like it was completely reactive almost to Sam Darnold leading the Seahawks to the Super Bowl, right? Like a team that has so many similarities to the Vikings. And it made many people, including the GM, like, look back and say, God, could that have been us when we had been better off keeping Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson? was quoted in USA Today this week saying, you know, you do look at that and wonder what if. But it seems like it wasn't just the QB mask.

Like it seems he might not have been very popular in the organization. Allegedly per story on ESPN.com, Brian Flores was sort of waiting to get some more clarity on the offseason before he decided if he was going to stay or go. And then that ESPN story pointed this out, which I didn't even realize, because you think about the Vikings as sort of being a successful organization. they've gotten less production out of this GM's four drafts, 172 total starts from players drafted. That's less than all but one NFL team.

The average NFL team has gotten 368 starts from players drafted over that period. I don't know if you saw that at all. Was that surprising to you? I was a little bit surprised by it until I, Doug. It felt reactive to the super. ball until I dug a little bit deeper. Yeah, I'm most surprised. I thought you were going a different way.

I think they're going to go the big news of Madison Beer and Herbert breaking up. But I like that. Well, you could tell just because he wasn't smiling in any pictures together. So you knew that was going to happen. But no, for this, it's, it had, they can say it was much of the reasons, but it seems like COC said, we got to keep Donald. And he said, we're going with JJ. And if that is true, to me as an owner,

that's fireable. You've set our franchise back now, potentially three to four years, while the other franchise that got the quarterback is now in the Super Bowl. So yeah, they can put up a bunch of reasons, but I think we're both human enough to know the ego's in this business. That just seems like the most logical thing, right? If Sam Darnal loses last week, maybe he keeps his job. But as soon as he won that game, I really did. I was waiting for this to happen. We said it on Sunday night, who was the biggest loser, who we've felt bad for it. It was like, I feel bad for the Vikings because they had that guy in the building. The guy, it's so hard to find. He, and he was on another team this one else. So, yeah, pretty shocking.

You know, made a great hire in Flores and made a great higher in KOC. So I don't know. I guess they need to do it. So, yeah, for all the news going on, I guess that was probably the biggest, right? but yeah it's it's one that's not going to move the needle too much for me because it's just the next guy I don't know it's how much power is this man going to have and it is you can be able to correct the mistake that is nine j jay j McCarthy yeah that's it like how do you how do you fix that the other coaching news clinkubiac expected to sign as the raiders head coach love it as soon as the super bowl is over he'll get to coach Mendoza, whose victory tour continues to be as charming as the entire Indiana season. There's going to be a lot of coaching talk after the Super Bowl.

I do want to get into the game with our very special guest because he's got a lot of thoughts on what's going on. Don't forget, you can get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube. Subscribe like this video while you were at it. Also subscribe to Sharper Square, not the pod's spot. Spotify wherever you get your pods. Let's bring in our guest. Our volume brother, former NFL personnel man with the Philadelphia Eagles,

host of the very popular football podcast Three and Out, which you can hear on the volume podcast network and watch on Netflix. He can talk for hours about football all by himself, which I want to ask him about. Because the only other person I know who can do that is our boss, Colin Cowherd. He will answer all of our questions about the Super Bowl matchup and so much more. Please welcome John Middlecough, incredibly hydrated, John Middilkoff. Chad, it's an honor.

When I got the text, I'm like, damn, I'm getting invited to the big leagues now. So I've been following and listening to you for a long, long time. So fired up, fired up. the gambling world, you know, as a, as a guy that used to sneak in to Cash Creek Casino. I grew up close to Sacramento in Davis, California. And we had this Indian casino. And they had black, back then you could play like dollar blackjack. I bet you couldn't go in now.

And there'd be anything under $25 a hand. But I remember my high school buddies would go there like 16, 17 years old. You know, you're supposed to be 18. But you'd steal like 20 bucks from your parents to be like, I'm going to turn this thing into the 500 and you'd be out like three hands. You'd have no money and be like, what am I going to do? I just drove out here an hour. But I got the bug early.

And then obviously sports gambling. Been dabbling since college. So excited. Well, we're glad to have you. We're thrilled you're on to talk about this matchup, especially. I had a question for both you and Simon to start off, which is this line has basically settled at four and a half. right now. And that is off of the Drake May news about his shoulder and the limited practice and

then the missing practice. My first question about on the field personnel, situational stuff for you, John, is the line not moving to me is an indication that it doesn't really matter whether he practiced last week or not. But from your point of view, how much do you think the conversations around this injury really matter? Well, we've had some quarterback injury starting with Stafford who was like, is his back shot? And then all of a sudden, the guy won the MVP.

Then, like, I live in a 49er household. And, oh, Sam Donald's oblique, you can not play with an oblique. I remember I'm a Fresno State guy.

I think Derek Carr got that injury. He couldn't throw. I'm like, they're screwed. And then he was like, making throw after throw. And even Kyle's like, yeah,

with Tortor all kicks in, he's completely fine. So I'm hesitant to think this is much. You never know. I mean, it is football. I mean, injuries.

do impact players. But until I see the guy not being able to function, I'm going to expect Drake May as normal. Simon, four and a half. It stayed steady. It looked like it might hit five for a minute. And it's kind of just locked in at four and a half. To me, what that's saying is basically,

wise guys know he's fine, wise guys know they're being cautious, wise guys know he's going to play. Is that kind of what you're hearing at this point? Yeah, there was never a doubt he wasn't going to play. It was just what's the injury tolerance here. To me, it's the NFL, everyone's going to get surgery. I mean, you saw Josh Allen walking with that boot, not even a couple of days ago, right?

He got surgery as soon as he's injured. Everyone knew he was playing with something wrong in his foot. So I'm hoping someone in the media does the ultimate test of tossing him something and see if he can approach above his head and catch it to see how hard that shoulder is. But, no, everything I've seen, it's like he's fine. So to me, if he is truly injured and it is something he gets surgery in the afterseason, they say afterwards like, well, he was playing with a torn whatever in his shoulder, whatever was a serious injury after the fact could happen.

But as we're talking about leaks, I've heard nothing leaking out that it's injured and that everyone in the building saying he's fine. And the number to me, though, again, we can dive. We're going to dive so much into the number. This is a number that I don't think they can move, Chad. I think they've kind of backed themselves into the position to this point, the sports books, because they've taken so much Seahawks money. If they do move it off an injury like this, say they did move it to six, double the amount of Seahawks money. The public would feel even more confident about their early bet, and they would come in bet even more because they're saying, hey, look, we were right on my early bet.

Now you're seeing that he might be hurt. That's why the number is moving. So they're kind of stuck, in my opinion. I don't think they can move the number of this point because they're already so dug in on the Patriots, right? They desperately need the Patriots. And every Catrani better I know, they're on the Patriots simply because of that. They're like, well, the House always wins. I'm going to build the House.

And it's like, the Super Bowl, you can't think that way. The House does not always claim. If this is a shootout, if this goes over, the spread one of the matter. They'll get destroyed on TDs and everything like that, Chad. So to me, the conversation about the shoulder isn't that much, but it was last week. Because you didn't practice, like you said, that was really alarm bells going. I think as the more news has come out from the Patriot side, it's like, listen, it's not that bad.

He's going to play in this game. He'll be fine. And we won't know until, you know, it's game time if that's the truth or not. Right. If they're dropping back, chat, he's not thrown deep, that's going to be a telltale sign. Well, see the amount of money bet on the Super Bowl, you know, because last year's at a record, right? I mean, the estimates this year, they're saying from the AGA,

legally $1.7 billion. Now, don't forget. there's prediction markets that will skewer that. And it's not apples to apples because prediction markets do it based on volume of trades, not, you know, handle of bets. And, you know, I can bet $50 on one side and $50 in the other side. And that's $100 in volume, but it's one person betting, right? So it's different metrics.

And then think about what's happening globally. Like this morning, a buddy of mine. had me on a text chain with his son who's in college, and he's in Europe right now. And he went to a sports book in the UK somewhere. And he was able to parlay, which we can't do this in the United States, he was able to parlay like Super Bowl MVP and winning team. And so he was able to get these crazy odds. So who even knows what the total handle is going to be in Europe? But suffice it to say, it's going to be well over a couple billion dollars.

It's insanity. That's awesome. Legally. I mean, look, it is awesome. It obviously speaks to over the past seven years, now almost eight years since legalization of how much sports betting has become ubiquitous within culture and how much the conversation has changed about it. Some people would argue that it's too much.

But the numbers never lie, right? The numbers are telling you that even with all the backlash against, the betting scandals against how operators sometimes treat customers about predatory marketing habits, whatever the case may be. The numbers keep going up every single year. So there's a huge delta between what people have an opinion about and how people are actually acting. And believe you me, this will be a massive conversation in the offseason on this show. There's so much to unpack in this industry about it right now.

But to just top off my point about the Super Bowl is don't get too caught up in the spread. Because even last year, the number one biggest bet the sports book had was Sequin Barclay anytime touchdown. Exactly. He did not score. Seekoine Berkeley, number two biggest prop was Sequin Berkeley over yards that went under. So as much as they do care about the spread, I keep telling the contrarian friends, I'm like, guys, you can't just blindly bet aside here because you're trying to fade the public.

It just is not that big of a markup to them. It's a small fish and a big pond. The Super Bowl is a very unique compared to every other sports week. Totally true. Someone bet millions of dollars on Sequin to score a touchdown last year. Hundreds. Hundreds. John, last year.

Oh, you're talking to the aggregate, the total amount of people gambling. I bet you one guy did that one million. There's always that one guy. Yeah, yeah. I see what you're saying. I see what you're saying. Yeah, yeah. Last year, Sequin Barclay props.

I remember talking to a bookmaker in New Orleans. And he's like, we're not even thinking about this side. All of our liabilities right now are Sequin Barclay props. After that, it was Patrick Mahomes prop. After that, it was Travis Kelsey props. The side had nothing to do with it. It's just an interesting way to look at it now. But you had a really interesting conversation with Colin the other day, talking about Sam

Donald. And if we're talking about the Super Bowl, I don't think there's a more important player here. It's the Seahawks' success or failure will rest on how he performs. And on the show, there was a stat. I think Colin mentioned it. Since Donald started six games for Carolina late in 2022, he's the winningest QB in the NFL, ahead of Mahomes, who's played in the next three, last three Super Bowls. Four and two at Carolina was Donald, one or no in San Francisco, 14 wins in Minnesota,

16 in Seattle. Explain how you see him as becoming a smarter player as he's evolved from the sort of I'm seeing Ghosts days in New York. Well, I actually thought that game against the Rams, some of his best plays, like we had seen in the playoffs, C.J. Stroud, for example, who they don't run. It's not apples to apples the same offense, but they do run a lot of boot, get them on the move. You can be a hero, you know, the Kyle Shanahan boot action. If that guy, the end or the linebacker on the outside doesn't bite and just goes at the quarterback, that play is DLA, right?

And that you can get in trouble. It's you turn around and the guy's right in your face. and sometimes quarterbacks freak and they like jump and they throw. I mean, CJ Strav was doing that. And Donald, like, hit the ground a couple times. He just took the sack. He had three sacks, I think, for 25-yard loss. So he's averaging like eight yards a sack loss.

That was smart because he didn't turn the ball over. And at one point in time this year, right, I don't know if he turned the ball over. He definitely didn't that last game against the 49ers. So, like, through 16 games, he had, what, led the league in turnovers and 14 picks and a bunch of fumbles, I think six. So it's like if he plays in this Kubiak Shanahan offense just under control with how their defense is playing, and he has the capability, right? He's got a big arm and he's mobile.

And not mobile like Lamar Jackson, but can scramble to throw, which is to me the most valuable thing you can do in the NFL right now. Because if the play isn't there, can you scramble to keep a play alive and then make a play? I mean, Caleb hung his hat on that this year. So he's doing that. And if he doesn't turn the ball over, like they will not lose. like to me, the only way the Patriots win this game is like you'd probably need maybe a pick six or maybe a pick and a fumble, like some weird things that happened from him. If he plays an efficient game like he did against the Rams, it wasn't just out dueling.

You know, outdule. They basically play the same game. They were both awesome, right? Throwing for 346 yards. I think Sam was. I forget the number with Stafford. He didn't turn the ball over. Like in these games, and who knows, maybe the Rams game turns out to be closer and more decisive like in the second half a little more until.

both sides than this game plays out. But if it does, a lot of Super Bowls, all of a sudden you get a little tight, it's a little tighter and closer than you think, you know, a major turnover. We've seen in the playoffs, they flip a game. You know, when I was in radio,

we used to be around, we had the A's when I was in the Bay Area. And, you know, the numbers guy is always, like, momentum doesn't matter. And an bat in October for, you know, and a Cespadus is no different than an bat in the middle of June. It's like, I don't know. I'm mad that you feel it, you know.

The momentum in football, the sideline, like you turn them over. Like the Patriots, they've kind of lived off that this year of just their team that, like the one thing was Seattle, like they do got a bunch of swoop players. And this is why I actually hammered them this year because they were like plus 500 to win the division. It's like, guys, the Rams went 10 and 7 as well last year. And while the 49ers aren't going to be as disastrous as they were the previous year,

the Seattle went 10 and 7 too. And if Starnold is just solid, their defense is going to be better. seems going to be pretty good. And they've had, like, down the stretch of the year, right? Their offense wasn't as explosive. And he had two weird games against the Rams. But for the most part, I do wonder if we just talk about the evolution, like the Jets things are relevant now.

Of course. But his evolution and building off the couple games to end the season last year, and then the Rams experience this year, how could he not just have a little more confidence of like, I don't need to force it, I got these guys, he's got a defensive head coach. his the kubiaks and shanahan's they aren't blood related they might as well be cousins right i mean they are in relation to the offense they all know it like the back of their hand and this

offense is essentially if it's going well and their defenses are built which seattle's is we're going to have less than 30 attempts so and in those 30 attempts half of them are going to be layup throws i mean throws that you and me could could make if we weren't getting pressure or whatever they're going to be NFL as easy as it gets. And then there's going to be 10 to 20% where you're going to need to make a play. And that's where it can be, you know, everybody throws some picks. Sam can throw some picks. If you make the right play in explosive plays, which he did against the Rams, we'll beat anybody. That's why Shanahan's won all these games. The Packers have won a bunch of games. It is tailor made for the quarterback. Then if you get a talented guy, which Sam is extremely

physically gifted. So if you do have explosive plays down the field, he's not going to have problems hitting those, which he's hitting. So it's like that game he played against the Rams was really, really high level. You know, and coming off the game where he kind of Jimmy Garapolode it against the 49ers, what he had 12 completions for a buck 20. They had no problem playing that way either. And that's what's scary about a team like Seattle. They could beat you by 20 points with him completing 15 balls. More with John. middle cough in a sec but first a quick word from zbiotics only one game left this football season and matt i know you'll be having a great time watching the big game with your friends and family making

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Pre-alcohol produces an enzyme to break down this. product, just remember to make pre-alcohol your first drink of the night, drink responsibly, and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Isn't that right, Matt? That's right. I have a number of friends and family over this weekend, pre-alcohol. It's always on the menu before we start serving drinks. Comes in this fancy package, pop it open, inside. We've got these little airplane bottles, shoot it down about an hour before I start drinking. I'm waking up, bright-eyed, bushy-tailed. I have the energy to answer my children's thousands and thousands and thousands of ceaseless questions with the rigor of a 25-year-old man. So I highly recommend it. It's been great.

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and use the code Sharp or Square at checkout for 15% off. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And we were thinking, I'm originally,

calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing,

a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, Hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title

for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.

We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get. your podcasts. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know first hand, because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris, every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay. Jenchian win. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted.

She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lena Rubakina is arguably the best player in the world right now and I actually can win on any surface because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast, Superhuman, documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What have you seen, say even over the last four weeks, where Sam Darnold has been creating for, has been creating fewer turnovers for his team than he was prior in a very weird stretch where it seemed like he was throwing the ball into coverage

and turning it over all the time. How much of that is Kubiak adjusting the game plan from what you've seen? How much of that is Donald making smarter plays and pulling themselves back from taking risky throws? Where's the balance here? because there's clearly been a distinction. And I know for me, as I'm thinking about betting this game,

I'm thinking about Donald being more of what he's done in the past four weeks. You know, we had Evan Abrams on the show, and he pointed out that Donald has the fourth highest QB rating of anybody in playoff history right now. So like going into this Super Bowl, what has been the difference? Is it the game plan? Is it how he's managing the game himself? I do wonder if that, I mean, that second Rams game was also disaster for him. Yes.

Right. He had a couple picks. They were in shambles. And then once that punt return happened, it did lighten the mood. And this is we talk about momentum on their sideline a little bit, like it gave him life. And he kind of looked like a different player. And I've always been a big believer. I don't care what you do in life, whether you're playing pro sports or whether you're doing what we do or whether you're selling insurance.

For younger people, confidence is. a very powerful thing. Like, you can lose it. You feel like you're never going to get it back. And when you got it, you feel like you ain't ever going to leave. And he had that final drive. And that has, he's parlayed that into playing at a really, really high level. And that final drive was big time. Like if that final drive to win that game on Thursday night had Ben Mahomes or Josh Allen and Lamar would have been like, see, all time great right here. That's what they do. But it was Sam. It was like, yeah, but he played a crappy game. You know, it's kind of weird. And he has to fight that, right? Like every quarterback that's not, you know, no doubt about it,

First Ball Hall of Fame or like once you're in that, to me, that kind of category of like guy six to like 12, 14, you know, the Purdys, the Dax, the golfs, the narrative can come back either way on them at any moment. Like Josh, okay, played a bad game against the Broncos, right? Well, it turned out he had a broken foot and it was like the first really bad game in the play. What do you want to do, bench them?

Like, what were we even talking about? I was a huge Peyton Manning fan. He had a lot of bad games. So I think confidence is really big. And I mean, JSN is just an elite player. Now, I think the one question is going to be,

they're pretty dependent on just, you know, they kind of had some, they just had multiple running backs. Now Charbonnet's out. They're pretty dependent on Kenneth Walker, who has looked exceptional. I think was it McDonald or Kubiak?

Maybe if John Schneider said that he's like really stepped it up. Like he does look like playing the guy that I remember at Michigan State, got a what's his name of contract extension before he blew it. Mel Tucker, 95 million dollars. Mel Tucker, you know,

Kenneth Walker looked like Walter Payton that year. So he's shown signs. Now granted, a couple of them are against the 49ers, whose defense is not great. But even last week, I thought the stats weren't reflective to his impact.

So to me, it always helps to have a running back in the Kubiak system because they will just dump it down, throw it to them a lot. And obviously the tight end, as well, but you got a wide receiver. I mean, JSN made a couple catches in that game,

the one out of bounds in the back of the end zone where he leaped, it was like, is that Michael Jordan? I mean, because I had someone text me, like, you know, he's like, like, CNFL, but he's more casual. And he's like, how does, this was after the game Donald had against the 9 or 22 through for 120 yards. I feel like I watched Sam Donald. And he throws for less than 200 yards.

Yet JSN's like, like, shattering records here. How's this, has that up? I'm like, well, some of it was early in the season. and they banked a bunch of yards. But like at any moment, he can have Pooka-like lines, which he literally just did, him and Puka were, I mean, I don't know, two of the best players on that field, whatever, how many days ago now. So I think confidence is a huge thing.

And he's just, even the last, I felt like I was on an island last year. The Lions game, he was bad, right? He was atrocious. Kevin O'Connell was not good in that playoff game. It's like, you got to help this guy out a little bit. He kept calling passes. you know, Kevin O'Connell is much more. McVeigh is really not Kyle's guy.

He feels much more like Andy Reid's guy. McVeigh would throw it 50 times a game, every game if he could. He wants to throw it, which, listen, we all have our, Kevin O'Connell's a lot like that too. Andy Reed would throw it 50, 60 times a game, every single game if he could. Where Kyle Shanahan would run it 50 or 60 times, right?

Like most defensive coaches. And I think Sam got put in a rough spot in that playoff game. And I think that, so it felt like two, games was like I think Kevin O'Connell's getting a little bit of a pass and you've seen him this year he could turn over the ball I mean that's he's a little bit of a gunslinger I mean that's kind of the way he plays he's not I don't even he's not Alex Smith like he but he doesn't have that physical skill set like he has an explosive arm and he's made enough plays now the last couple years where he knows it works yeah I'm right there with you John where I held last year against

Sam Darn I was one of those people where that lines game that Rams game it just it's stuck in everyone's mind because he played so well and then the big biggest games. He didn't. That last game against the Rams, though, that, again, I'd bet them. I'd bet on them as a team. I said, Chad, I couldn't believe that. We bet on the Seahawks for a different reason. Sam Darnold saved us. He had the game of all games against the Rams team. And, you know, I really look at this team just like the Eagles last year, where Sam, just like Hurts last year, he can lose this game for them, right? If he makes these mistakes, like you said, he will lose it. If he plays what you just said, just sound football, very patient take what

it even gives them, I just can't see the Sealks was the game. They just feel like, such a more complete team. And I think of the art of war, right? Never interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake. That's what this game's going to be, right? You got two guys on both sidelines, you know, Vrabel as well. He is going to hopefully, let's say I'm going to make the mistake. And that's momentum will flip, which is what happened to that Broncos game.

The Patriots were dead. The quarterback made the mistake. That all the momentum had flipped in that exact point. So I would love you. You just talk about Vrabel right now because we're getting a lot of love Seattle. Vrabel is the difference maker, right? He is the reason the Patriots are here where they are. A lot of Drake May Love, but it is variable.

This is a variable defense. Everything about this defense is just such a variable personality. Can you speak on him, how you feel about him as a coach and the confrontation is to a success? Yeah, I mean, I'd feel the biggest bet I've ever made in my gambling career on a football game was the Denver Broncos against Carolina. Because I had seen that Denver Bronco team. I'd been doing Raiders post games.

You mean in the Super Bowl? In the Super Bowl. In the Super Bowl. relative to my income, it was probably the 07 pats. I bet against them with the Giants because I had seen that week 16 or 17 game that they ended up need that crazy pass for Randy Moss. And I was like, this, they match up well, 13 points. And I convinced me in my roommate we like scrounge like $1,500 together and bet it all on the Giants.

It was incredible. But I have a lot of conviction in Seattle in this game. Like, I mean a ton. Like it wouldn't shock me at all if we get one of those Super Bowls where it's like 38 to 10, just an ass kicking. but the Vrable Josh McDaniels combo makes me pretty nervous. I mean, Sean Payton said it after on that fourth down that they went for it, that obviously looking back that he would have kicked the field goal if you would have known.

Like, we got the look we wanted, but then what happened, they ran something completely different with the look. Well, while he was never a coach for Belichick, he was one of his key cogs on defense, all those Super Bowl championships, where Belichick ran some of like the most famous game plans in the history of the sport. and clearly Mike being now a coach, you know, I mean, was probably on the front lines with Bill and Romeo Cornell discussing this and implementing it with the group with Bruske. I think he looks, you know, like like a Jim Harbaugh or Dan Campbell. And obviously those guys are smart too.

And I think it takes away a little bit. I think Mike, when it comes to football, is brilliant. Yeah. You know, I mean, brilliant. And you guys might know this. I need to look this up. There can't be in the history of the NFL. a coordinator who has coordinated more offensive or defensive game plans for playoff games

of Josh McDaniels. It feels like this would be like his 40th game because most guys like become a head coach or whatever. But all of his work in the playoffs for how many years now, multiple runs with Tom, now back with Drake and he's not going to get a head coaching job. How many playoff games that guy going to be an OC for? So they're coaching advantage with Mike and his understanding of what it takes in these massive games. It's like, when Sean said that, it's like, and listen, I'm all for going for it. I've said forever, the movement to go for it.

Every human being that's ever watched football on their couch is always screaming at the TV to go for it most of the time. But that was like when you factored in the weather. And then when I heard him say, well, Sean, you would do the same when it comes, hey, we got the look we wanted on their offense and they ran something different. That's the AFC, NFC. These are the best of the best. And that's what makes me nervous. So if it wasn't, if this was just like kind of a team out of nowhere with a coach, that we didn't have as much like familiarity with. But that's what makes me hesitant to go all in on Seattle

because I think the coaching advantage, not that the Seattle's at a disadvantage, because their coaching is great too, but how good, I mean, Vrable from a game management standpoint is a freaking genius. You know, I have Stucky on every week, and he was saying there was a moment in that game where he subbed and had the guy going slowly off that the clock.

I mean, he knows the rule book. That was Bill's thing, right? I know the rulebook better than you. It's like, what do we all look for in account? The guy that knows every single loophole. Well, that's Bill and that's now Mike. And then Josh is just extremely comfortable, that clip of when Drake looked at him,

I'm like, this is really hard. You can tell me. They're playing this blizzard. And I'm like, yeah, this is supposed to be. How many times is Josh down on one knee sat there looking at Tom in that same exact spot? That is a huge, huge advantage because this team shouldn't be here based on like, it's kind of like the commanders last year.

I would say the Patriots have more talent than that commander's team, but it's like, this is not your typical Super Bowl roster, right? I mean, this Patriot team, in theory, is going to be way better in a couple of years, but they got the coach, and they got the coaches, you know,

the combo of, I know for able technically doesn't call the defense, but I would imagine during the week, he's pretty heavily involved sitting there in the room, right? So that's, I think they, I think he's a star, you know,

just like, and I know the thing ended weird in Tennessee. Didn't have a quarterback, but I watched them with some pretty good team, kick some serious. I mean, weren't they the one seat the year that Tannhill threw all those picks? Yeah, this is a great redemption story on both sides

with Darnold and the roadmap he's traveled to get to the Super Bowl. And Vrable, two years removed from pretty unceremoniously getting fired. It feels like the only person who didn't know what a genius Mike Vrable is was the owner of the Tennessee Titans. Because what he's done in a year after back-to-back four and 13 seasons for the Patriots is brilliant work, but also it's why everyone was betting on the Patriots preseason. It wasn't because of Drake May. It was cousin Mike Frable. Because bettors especially know, you look back at that game that the Titans had against the Patriots, which was Tom Brady's

last game. Vrable was using Belichick on Belichick, right? He was calling the time out. He was taking the penalties. He was finding all the ways to use the clock and burn it down to give them so little opportunity. He did the same thing. He's done that this year. And he's also talk about momentum. He's taking the right momentum plays at the right time. Today's show was brought to you by our presenting sponsor Hard Rock Bet, Florida Sportsbook. The biggest Sunday of football season is this weekend. And for games like this, basic bets just don't cut it. That's why Hard Rock Bat is loaded with special props. You can't find the rest of the year. Scoreagami. Opening kickoff touchback. all the bets you need to make every snap matter. So if you haven't signed up with hard rock bet yet,

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has a gambling problem and wants help call 1,8009 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. John, to your point, Vrable, how he handled the Broncos game and, like, knew weather was going to be a factor. Everybody was saying kick the field goal for Sean Payton on that fourth down. He's the only one who didn't say, I'm going to kick the field goal. And Mike Vrable took the points in those exact scenarios, and that just shows sort of how smart and connected he is. I think sometimes too,

like there are certain individuals. You know, I have, let's just pick a guy. I got 18 years coaching experience. You'd say, well, Philip Rivers has none.

Guys like Philip Rivers, guys like Mike Brable, their coaching experience was really their playing experience because they were essentially coaches on the field. You know, like, listen,

Peyton would not do it. He's not going to put in the hours. But if Peyton really dedicated himself, you know how good he would be at running the offense for a team? and just running the team, great Tom as well. Like their understanding of implementing these game plans and being around in these high leverage moments

countless times in their career. It's just something that like it's, I was looking at Sean McVeigh. I saw Sean McVeigh got extended. So he's been in 16 playoff games as a coach. Like think how many variable games now as a coach and a player. And that's, you know, the busts on, you know, Taylor Luwans talked about this before.

His advantage when he gets in front of the team is there is not a human being. in that room that he can't relate to. The high paid guy, the practice squad guy, the guy clawed to try to get off special teams. He's seen it all. And he's one at the highest level. It's just he's a pretty, probably a throwback.

A lot of guys like Didka and, you know, that used to be a lot of the coaches, right? Well, I was born in the mid 80s, but like guys that had played and then they just got into it. And they were really good players and like big time the Packers or the Cowboys. It happens less because these guys make so much money now. but it shows you the power that they have because the advantage they have of just seeing it, because if you're going to get into coaching, it's not like, well, Michael Jordan can't tell you how to play. If you can become a football coach, you have to be able to communicate, like, or else you're just not going to do it long.

So if you get into it, you're going to be good at it in terms of communication. And then his knowledge is just, he's a stud. I mean, he's an easy guy to enjoy watching. He's a stud. and yet we all think the Seahawks are going to dominate this game. It would be pretty impressive, though, if they were to win the game. It would be like his Belichickian moment, wouldn't it? I actually feel like the key factors in this game are Mike Vrable and Sam Darnold,

more than maybe Drake May, because what Mike Vrable can do if Drake May is healthy and the way he's going to manage this game, I think it's going to put them in the best possible position to keep it close. So we'll see. John Middlkoff, three and out, watch it on Netflix, listen to it on the Volume Podcast Network. Great stuff, my friend. Thanks for joining us.

See you guys. Take it easy. All right. We want to thank John Middilcoff from Three and Out, our Volume Brother, for coming on the show. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We want to thank John Middukoff, our Volume Brother from Three and Out, for coming on the show.

We will be back on Thursday. We're going to go deeper into NFL. all props for the Super Bowl. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel. Also, Donalds from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us, five stars.

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