The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Sharp or Square - Super Bowl Prop Bets and Longshots with Brandon Anderson

Episode Date: February 6, 2026

Super Bowl betting action is heating up! The market for Super Bowl prop bets is the biggest in history, and fans can invest in this Sunday's game between the underdog New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks from every conceivable angle. On today's show NFL betting expert Chad Millman and professional gambler Simon Hunter dive into all the angles with the help of special guest Brandon Anderson of Action Network.Together our trio discuss a trove of Super Bowl props, starting with exotic defensive prop bets, including longshot Super Bowl MVP picks for members of the Seahawks’ intimidating unit. We also hear about escalator player props involving Kenneth Walker, Hunter Henry, and more. Is Jaxon Smith-Njigba preparing for 100+ yards, a touchdown and the MVP trophy? What about Gatorade color poured on the winning coach? And will Mike Vrabel and the Patriots defense be able to slow down this Seattle Seahawks passing attack? Or will New England quarterback Drake Maye be playing from behind and fighting for his life? All of this, plus picks for Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, and more in our final new episode before Super Bowl Sunday! #Volume 0:00:00 - START 0:08:00 - BRASS BALLS BET OF THE WEEK 0:09:00 - GUEST BRANDON ANDERSON --- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet  Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms: https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/ https://x.com/SharporSquare_See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you.

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We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the square sharper. It makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Shad Nolan. I am joined. As always, by my BFF, my companion, my confidre, my co-host, professional, better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? I'm great. I'm freaking fantastic. I feel like it's been a weirdly, tell me if you agree. It feels like a weirdly quiet Super Bowl week. And what I mean by that is, is the line has stayed the same.

There hasn't been a lot of, you know, Super Bowl opening night, quote, controversy. It's been four and a half. It's 45 and a half. Injuries haven't been an issue. I just feel like, I actually feel like in the last 48 hours, NFL news has been subsumed by NBA trade deadline news. It just feels like a very sort of quiet Super Bowl week right now. I guess I'm just in a bubble.

I know nothing about NBA trade news at all. NFL-wise, I guess you're right. Maybe there's not a pop because it's not, we're coming off a high of my homes, right? This run of my homes, I mean, going for the three-peat last year. That's right, that's right. It's just been on this incredible run. It's hard to get fired up.

I won't lie for Sam Darnold Drake, it just is. If this was Josh Allen finally made it or Lamar finally made it, you know, I would probably have a little bit more juice, but yeah, maybe that's what's lacking, I think, for the general public. But yeah, my world, it's never ending, Chad. Everyone's got an opinion.

And I would say it's hit probably 65%, 60-ish percent, all pros I've talked to are pretty confident on the Patriot side. Really? Yeah, they're feeling pretty good, Chad. So I really thought it was going to be super, super Calks heavy, but it seems. It seems like it's definitely the pros. They're taking positions on this Patriots team. But I say all the time, it's in a one-game coin flip type of scenario,

the Super Bowl is so random. I'm not going to let it worry me too much. If this was week five, I would tell you right now, we might be in some trouble chat. But it's not, it's a Super Bowl week. I'm dug in. Love the Seahawks still. I've just leaned into it totally.

And yeah, it's just fun because so many opinions are changing every day where, I mean, all last week it was all Drake Mays. banged up. This week, Seahawks, their star rookie safety, rolling an ankle last play of the game, and now everyone's freaking out about the Seahawks. So some injury worry, but yeah, at the end of the day, I think you're right.

It's been a pretty mellow week, right? No, no, not too much drama, no real madness from the media side of things. Someone needs to start dating Taylor Swift, stat, to start getting some storylines going on here. Since this is our Thursday pre-Super Bowl, episode. It's all, it's going to be mostly props. We have a very special guest. We're going to get to in a minute. We are going to have our brass balls bed of the week. We are going to have the final Chad's choice of the season. I want to do that in one second, but you said something to me

very interesting the other day that I think is germane and relevant to the show we're doing today, regardless of the sides, so much more of the act. action is on the props. And I feel like this year more than ever, we started here about it last year where Sequin Berkeley became the action that every book needed, right? It was Seacon Berkeley touchdown, Sequin Berkeley rushing yards, whatever it was. Every book needed him not to do anything in that game. This year, we're hearing the same thing again. It's all about the props. What else are you hearing from professionals about are they leading more into the props and the sides are you getting that sort of feeling as well yeah props props will always be and again it's it depends on how old

the professional is like if i know plenty of professionals below the age of 30 they don't even do sides or totals they only do props so for them this is their the super bowl is the holy grail because you can get so much money down on these props at all different books we're doing the regular season. You were lucky to get above a 1K bet on a prop. Yeah. The books, they're just so keen to it.

They know these pros can get insane value on these numbers. So, yeah, the prop market's heated up. I mean, we talk a little bit about, you know, these prediction markets.

That's a whole other world. That's really heated up in the prop market because, I mean, you can make prop bets on just about every little thing on these sites. Yeah. So, yeah, it's really,

opened things up. I remember my first time in Vegas for the Super Bowl, seeing a sheet of 200 props was mind-blowing. I'll just never forget. I was like, this is overwhelmed. This is going to take me all two weeks to get through it. Now it's like thousands. I mean, thousands of different props. Anything you can think of. I mean, it's, it really is a wild time. So yeah, it's, I would say you're, you're right with your assessment. The guys are really taking a position on props but um yeah the old school guys and like most guys that i talk to they're still harping about totals first half totals you know first first first half sides full game size full game totals and that's really that's that's what these guys love to bet right they're going to have their models and their

opinions on the number in the total so um it's still heavy to that but yeah i would definitely say the new age the next generation from 21 up to 39 40 props all props all the pros all the pros I talk to. It's just, I'm the same way. I like betting stupid props. I mean, you wanted me to have a fat lineman catch a touchdown? I'm betting it. You want me to have a, the over two and a half different passing pass attempts in the game. I'm betting. I want to bet on Cooper Cup throwing a pass. So I'm, I'm totally on board. I told old heads of these type of bets. They're like, you're a sucker. You're throwing your money away. They just, they're from a different world. So yeah, it's definitely an age split on props. So it's funny. You know, one of the guys I'm talking to for the

book that I'm writing, he has focused his entire career on props. And... A hard life. Yeah. It's hard to get money. It's hard to get money down. It's, uh, you know, it's been a fascinating thing to write about for the book. And we'll obviously talk more about the book, uh, you know, when it's about to come out

many, many, many, many months from now. But, um, and I write all about like how hard it is to get money down, how hard it is to scale, you know, and how hard, it's just a grind. It's a massive, massive. Brian and a lot of guys who are professionals, they really do sort of, they scale out of it because it does become so difficult and it's hard to build a network of getting money down with other people and things like that. But we were texting their day. He's in Vegas now. And I said to him, I really like the Seahawks. He said that he was betting one of the props he bet. He goes,

it's stupid, but one of the props I bet, Seattle minus 31. at plus 3,100 or something like that, which made me feel better because I have been layering Seattle alts in a variety of ways, which I want to talk to you and our guest about. It also made me feel better because before we get to our guest, and we're going to be talking so much about props, I do want to give out our final category bets of the season. Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet is one. one of those Seattle Alts, Seattle minus six and a half, plus one 15 at hard rock bet. That is number one.

Number two, brass balls, bed of the week, presented by hard rock bat. This one, it's so gross and so yucky. I can't believe we're offering it, Simon. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. New England Patriots first drive punt minus one-thirt teen. Gross. Just gross.

It's gross. Are these new graphics Matt Mitchell? I love them, man. I love the new graphics for the Super Bowl. Stepping it up. All right. Don't forget. You can get the shows at Sharper Square on YouTube.

Go subscribe. And like this video while you're at it. You can also subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple Pod, Spotify, etc. All right. Props are popular. talking about it. We're doing our prop episode today with one of our favorite people from the Action Network, a man who dives deep into the props, a man who was given out long shop future winners to both you and I, long shop prop winners, one of the most creative thinkers in the business.

I am talking about our former colleague, Brandon Anderson. Welcome, Brandon. Hey, guys. How's it going? Well, it's great. I'm feeling really good now that I know all the wise guys are on. The Patriots. You know, it's funny after I've been betting my brains out on the Seahawks and not just that. And we're going to get into the props. But I feel like the entire sort of narrative I've built for this game is based on Seahawks controlling the ball, Patriots needing to come back in this game. Do you have a broad opinion at this point? Yeah, I think it's interesting as I heard you talk about the Seattle minus four and a half.

six and a half, 31. That's where I started. Like coming out of championship Sunday, I was like, all right, well, season's over. We saw the Super Bowl. We saw Seahawks Rams.

We got our winner. We found out who they're going to beat. Let's find out how much they're going to win by. And for like 10 days of this process, that's where it was. And then you start listening to some of the other content, you're trying to, you know, think, well, what am I missing?

What's the opposite of my view? I start being like, well, what about this thing? What about play action? What about the Patriots of this thing? And you start to, kind of coming back the other way and you're like man i don't know four and a half is kind of a lot you know the underdogs are are covering all these numbers lately and i thought i was going to pull all the way back and then i did my last prep these last couple days and if i made my final picks was like

yeah yeah no seattle we're on seattle seattle is the spot to be this is what i thought and too it's interesting with super bowl you know normally we're preparing on a sunday for like 14 games or something you're finding angles all over the place and suddenly you got one game and two weeks of shows and content to fill for one game. And it's like, okay, so what do you do? Do you choose this is the game and this is the script and this is exactly what I think. I'm going to bet that 12 different ways and here's my menu. Or do you say, okay, choose your own adventure.

If Seattle's up early, here's the bet for that. If I'm wrong and the Patriots return the opening kick for a touchdown, what's the bet for that? How do I bet they like, do you cover your bases and kind of give yourself four, or five scripts for the Super Bowl, or you just say, this is the one that I most agree with and go all in. And, you know, I think you can do either one of those if you're doing it right. Oh, shit, Brandon. Don't fucking hedge. Don't be a coward.

Over here, my little fun, we're going all in, brother. We are all in on whatever the Seahawks are going to do in this game. It's Seahawks are bust for us. I'm really Chad. Chad no longer has a lot of sit on the fence here. I've literally beat him down to a man that he make I make a pick aside and it's it's the way it should be. It's tough. We all hate doing it. But yeah, I'm totally in line with him where it's like I was wavering a little bit about the Patriots, right? You hear so much noise and it's like, oh my God, am I missing something here? But I'm on back all in Lysse yawks as well. So not all the professionals chat are on the Patriots, right? There are still some of us on the chalky side with the Joe public. But yeah, it's, I was definitely shocked to hear how many people have taken a position on the Patriots because I did think it was going to be the world versus their sports books. But all things are evened out in the world, Chad. Don't worry. The pros are on one side.

The public's on the other. We are the public in this game. I don't mind. I don't mind being shocking. All right. Brandon, let's kick off with the unit you feel most confident in right now, which is, the Seahawks defense. You've just explained, you've come down on the side of the Seahawks, it is going to be because of the Seahawks defense. Why are you so confident in this Seahawks defense

and how it matches up with what the Patriots can do from a betting point of view? Yeah, so it's Seahawks defense and it's also Patriots offense being actually the thing I maybe feel least confident with this matchup as well. So to me, all year along, looking at all 32 teams, the two units that I most believed in, Rams offense, Seahawks defense. We saw that. We saw that match. We saw out play out three times. We saw these fireworks showdowns. And we saw them like number one DVA offense, Rams, number one DVA defense, Seahawks. Since week 13, the CX gave up 64 points to the Rams. They gave up 44 points to everybody else on the schedule in that stretch. 44 points on 62 drives defensively. Two touchdowns, seven points a game to anybody.

other than the Rams. And that includes two 49ers games that we thought the 49ers were this buzzed offense until they weren't anymore. And we're, well, you know, Purdy and blah, blah, blah.

They just, no, they were crushing everybody. And then they weren't because they played the Seahawks. That's how good the defense has been at everything. Patriots offense, meanwhile, had all the good numbers in a regular season because we all know about how soft the

schedule was. Now they're facing these tough defenses, and the numbers are ghastly. Since, since 1979 is how long it's been. since we have a team averaging 18 points a game that made the Super Bowl. 1979, they're averaging negative 0.73 EPA per drive, the Patriots so far. That's basically the Jets regular season number.

The Patriots offense has been the Jets offense. For comparison, it's the worst EPA per drive for Super Bowl team since the 2000 Ravens or the 2015 Broncos. Guess what? Those are defense teams. Those are all in defense teams that we knew that at the time, that had just enough offense. That's not what the Patriots are supposed to be. So if you're buying Patriots right now, I think you have to be buying that it's this suddenly hyper-elete defense.

The offense hasn't really shown up all season long. Drake May hasn't really faced a lot of great competition. So suddenly now his numbers are dropping, 33rd percentile EPA in the playoffs among quarterbacks, 33rd percentile against top 10 defenses on the season. season. He's had nine games a season with a PFF grade 60 or higher. Here's who are they against. Miami, the Jets, Carolina, Buffalo, New Orleans, Tennessee, and the Giants. Hooray for you. Congrats on your above average games. Only four of those since week seven. He's at eight games, 50 percent dollar below PFF and EPA. Sixth since week seven. Seattle's held quarterbacks

to that mark 14 out of 19 games. So this to me is a real mismatch. And, Seattle, we know how good their run defenses. Patriots are not going to be able to run the ball in this game. They're not having been a good run team anyways. Patriots really rely on explosive plays, number one all season, but Seattle is second against explosives. Drake May's air yard throws have dropped from early in the season to late in the year. Seattle's number one against Writers Zero one.

So that's Stefan Diggs. It's okay, you can't run the ball. You can't throw a lot to Diggs. You can't go deep to booty. What's left? Then we just took the whole offense away if that's what's happened. And we're talking about the offensive line. We've seen Will Campbell.

We've seen those rookies on the left side really struggle as the season's gone on. We know Seattle's pressure rate. So to me, coming out swinging here, Patriots team total under 20 and a half. That's the first, but I'm going to give out here. Patriots have only gone under that four times all season, but two of them in the playoffs already. Seattle has held non-Rams opponents under 20 and a half in 13 of 16 games this season. So throw out the number one of Rams offense, and this is hitting 13 of 16 times 15 points a game, and two of those three overs came in garbage time, one in the final minute.

I'll give you a trivia. Who's the team that actually went over 20 and a half? That's not the Rams. Do either of you know from the season, who beat the Seahawks, 21 points are better? Well, beat the Seahawks or score. Well, not get the Seahawks. Who put up 21 or more to go over this line? Arizona Cardinals.

Arizona, I believe, was at 20. Okay. Then I don't know. The season, it's a quarterback that got hurt and was much worse late in the season. Baker. Baker is correct. The Buccaneers dropped, I think 38, I believe, on the, on Seahawks. They won that game.

Inshad actually won that bet. Yeah. By the way, these are also both bottom four in pace neutral as well. So I think we're going to get a slower game overall. That can help an under as well. I'm not positive. We'll talk about the other side of the ball. I'm not positive about Seattle's offense, New England's defense yet.

I just don't think England's going to score very much. So Patriots under 20 and a half. All right. Look, everything you just said makes me feel so much better. So like, Simon, why are people coming in on the Patriots? What do we think here? I mean, honestly, a lot of it is because of the trends of the dogs. Like I told you, if you just blindly bet the Patriots,

the dogs down the Super Bowl, the public is giving you a free point to two points every, every time. And you've seen the books have gotten so much sharper. I mean, I think back to that giants, what, what they open? 13 plus 13 against the Patriots. And they got that down to like 11 and a half by kickoff. But those days feel long gone. They'll never have those type of snares again because that's what we feel like we have right

here. Like that, that's how, I feel like that's how big this spread should be. are the Patriots feel so lucky to be here. They've earned it. I've said it all along the way. They've earned it. They've won those games. But the path,

you cannot overlook the path they took to get here and how favorable was for this team. And this is the ultimate test. The fact that they're looking at is you're fading Sam Darno is a four and a half point favor in the Super Bowl. That's basically the basis of most guys I talk to where it's like, isn't that a lot to give to a guy who had one great game in the playoffs, which is what he did? that Rams game was incredible.

It was great. I feel like he found something in that game. That is why they're just like, you're betting a lot on a guy who had one good game where we have three other games where he, you can say he didn't do much against the 49-old. I still think he made big-time throws, but last year against the Rams

and then last year against the Lions in that biggest games, he did not show up and he faltered and he played it really poorly. And I think a lot of guys are still holding that against him. So it's a big number. Like we said, four and a half is a big number. We're talking about a one-game sample, winner take all type of matchup but i i i've said to you chat i still think it's it's because of that

because of the the dog success i think it's gone the other way we're getting two free points on the favorite now where it's shifted too much to giving the dog too much respect here so um it's it is like you said it's it's interesting where you look at all the numbers and it is everyone knows this patrick's team's overrated and that's what's so funny these patriots fans get so upset about it why would you care? You're in the dance. You made it. It's like, it's very bizarre how they're reacting to it. It's like, you guys know you had a soft schedule. You know the teams you beat, yes, you won those games and it was tons of respect, but it's like, come on. I mean, were you really going to act like the path of Herbert, CJ, and then a backup quarterback was, you know, the hardest path every Super Bowl? No, but when you look at the Seahawks, their whole season, that was a tough path. They're in the hardest division of football. So, I just don't get why they don't, they're like, oh, so upset everyone's picking the Seahawks. Why would they not be? Why would anyone in national media who basically always picks chalk?

Why would they pick the Patriots? It's like I just, at the surface level, it doesn't really make sense. But yeah, I like you said, I'm hearing Anderson say all that stuff about all those numbers. I'm just like you, that made me feel so much better inside words. Like I'm waving a little bit because it feels too easy. I think you have the same feeling. but it's like, no, stick to it. We're bent into a good number here.

I really am confident this y'allx team. Let's do a quick word in from our friends at Hard Rock. Today's show was brought to you by our presenting sponsor Hard Rock Bet, Florida Sportsbook. The biggest Sunday of football season is this weekend. And for games like this, basic bets just don't cut it. That's why Hard Rock Bet is loaded with special props. You can't find the rest of the year. Score a gami.

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and wants help call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast?

Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name? Hey Jonas, guys. I honestly don't remember.

I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking. I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast,

where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy,

not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. Help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen, kingdom on earth. He felt destined for greatness. So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world, he doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the person. president of Turkey. I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking criminal conspiracies

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Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo.

Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered.

Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 and the TikTok podcast. network on TikTok. I know I want to do props, but I'm dying to ask both you right now. How do I ladder this? I believe in the Seahawks. I bet the Seahawks, Simon, you and I talk about this two weeks ago now.

I bet the Seahawks at minus three and a half the second the game opened. I bet the Seahawks again at four and a half. I have bet the Seahawks at minus 25 and a half. If I want to be on the Seahawks, at what intervals do you think I keep betting the Seahawks as I ladder this up? Brandon, you are the laddering master. If I'm going to be on the Seahawks, what are my laddering intervals here? If I've got it three and a half, four and a half and 25 and a half, am I doing six and a half?

Am I doing nine and a half? Am I doing 13 and a half? Like, is that what I should be doing? Yes, I was going to ask about that. So this year, I often have done five and a half. and nine and a half as kind of the starting escalator modes. And then from there, you know, basically you're just looking at, okay, what are key numbers? And then how can I just kind of keep docking below the key numbers?

I get to choose as I go up, you know, that the main number they're putting out, we're going to get action on both sides to hone in on the number. But so to me, I like five and a half. We've seen this year and more the last two years, some sixes along with the sevens. So I like to get under both of those if I can. It's usually not a huge difference. nine and a half to get out of the 10. And then maybe I go like 16 and a half,

23 and a half. Just kind of like hitting a touchdown at a time on the way up or something like that and just kind of slowly a little bit less each time. I think too, we're going to get into the props. But you can sort of correlate and say, okay, well, if they're going to win by 20, 30 points, if that is the outcome, how'd they get there? Did JSN have the huge game?

Did Holani come in and get a last touchdown? because Walker is already out celebrating on the sidelines. Like you can kind of get creative with, okay, if this is the script, what are some other long numbers I can play rather than just the spread? And you can, or you can build the same game partly and say, okay, let's put a bunch of these together.

Did Darnold hit the yards? And we got the JSN game. And that's why we got this big number as well. All right. Simon, you get any thoughts on that? You think I'm being crazy? No, you're having fun. That's a Super Bowl.

I tell people all the time. the Super Bowl is supposed to be fun. Spread out your stuff. Like me, the old commodrine, I'm going to put 50% of my equity into the minus six and a half. So you all expect, like to me,

that's fun. The fact that I'm not betting minus 115, I'm getting plus 115. That, that to me is my fun. Like, that's how sick I am. So,

yeah, it's, I do these ladders too. Like, I like doing all those bets, but like everyone just needs to remember such a small percentage of your bet, right? You're just,

that's your fun money. But yeah, like, serious if you're trying to take a position. Yeah, for me, I, I just lean to the getting the juice number. But yeah, if you're trying to put some crazy stuff together, Chad, you basically, we talk all the time, if you're someone out there that likes the overs, do not bet the over. Like you can parlay it, but throw in all the touchdown scores, like throw in crazy

parlays of different touchdown scores and get real weird with it, right? Mack Hollins, throw them in there. Like, throw in the second tight end. Throw in the fullback, do whatever. Because if you bet two bucks and it hits and you hit some of these parlayers, sometimes you're getting back like a thousand bucks. It happens. So, yeah, that's right.

I always try to tell people where it's like last year's Super Bowl, I think Ray Anderson talked about this. Every year you should always bet defensive touchdown, either team, right? Special teams, if you can get it, I know the juice is different on them, but that's another bet where if I'm doing with Chad, it's talking about like if I'm betting the Seahawks and how to, be fun with the laddering up, I'm going to throw a defense over special teams touchdown in that. You got to do it because it's like Drake May, second year quarterback.

That's going to be part of our vision, right? Chad, if we're going to have a blow in here, we expect there maybe do you have pick six or a kick return. So that's like we keep saying the wildest, most fun ideas you can have, throw it in. They got a number for you. Do it. Just take it easy with a bankroll. Don't be going crazy on these barlays, right? If you're $100 better on the Super Bowl, do one or $2 parlays, right?

And just do a ton of them. It's just fun because all of a sudden you wake up Monday morning. It's like, holy shit, I want $1,000 and I won two bets. And that's what we're looking for, right? These crazy long shots. All right. Brandon, Simon just mentioned the magic words defensive special teams touchdown. How are we thinking about betting just defensive props?

Yeah, this to me is a set it and forget it Super Bowl bet. You can bring me on next year, and I'm just going to give these exact same bets out with different teams and names. Defense's score in the Super Bowl. We have 22 defensive touchdowns in the Super Bowl, at least one in 19 out of the 59. So about one in three, 13 defensive touchdowns the last 24. So that's over a half touchdown defensively per game.

And this matchup, it's been defense all season. Seattle's defense all year, Patriots defense all playoffs, and Seattle had the second most giveaways in the regular season. So if our script goes wrong, we're all feeling good about Seattle. But if we're wrong, why does it go wrong? Donald turned it over. Like that's the reason. And it probably was a pick six the other way.

And you get a four and a half point spread. One touchdown that the weird oblong ball bounced the wrong way, seven free points between two great teams. Yeah, you're probably going to get a different sort of turnout there. So I will say betting defense, betting special teams, make sure to watch at the book. Because sometimes you get the defense touchdown. sometimes you get the D slash ST. That's what do you want.

You want the special teams in this one. These teams had eight special teams touchdowns this season. There are 13 special teams touchdowns in the Super Bowl. No punt returns yet. Maybe we'll get one here. But you want special teams as well. You can just bet keep it easy. Either team defense or special teams touchdown plus 265.

Keep it easy. That's 27%. There are 35 defense special team touchdowns in the Super Bowls. that's 59% implied. So that's basically more than double the odds that we're getting there. But I like to get more aggressive because almost always, the team that gets the defense touchdown is the winning team. Makes sense, right?

Like that's the free points you got. 22 defense touchdowns, all but three are the winning team. So you build two separate parlayes, and I'm playing both. Seattle Defense Special Team's touchdown with the Seattle Money Line plus 833, Patriots defense. special team touchdown with their money line plus 2,700. You have both together. It's like plus 600 implied.

It's double the value what we should be getting here. And then also, defenders can win MVP. We've had 10 defensive MVP's more defense than running back, more defense than receiver. It's about one every seven in the Super Bowl. Defensive MVP, you can get just at 15 to 1. Every defender, I get half the guys on the field at 15 to 1. What can't you like about that? That's 6% implied.

It's like two and a half times what the history implies there. So I like defensive MVP. And then this is my $1, $2 bet that Simon is talking about. If I'm doing all that, I have to take some stabs at glory and come up with who's the exact defender. I'm going to be wrong. But one year randomly, I'm going to be right. So here's my three guys. Marcus Jones for the Patriots, 150 to 1.

He's the third cornerback. He had four picks this year. Two of them return for touchdown. to punt returns for touchdown. So I get the bonus there. I don't want the best player. I want splash plays. Give me the upside with Marcus Jones.

And of course I want Seattle guys to Marcus Lawrence, 150 to 1. He has sack each game of the playoffs. He has three force fumbles in two games. Up against Will Campbell, we like that matchup a lot. And then Ernest Jones, 200 to 1. Three of the four defensive Super Bowl MVP's this century

are linebackers. He led the team in tackles by 30 this season, led the team in interoperals. receptions. We think New England's going to get a lot of pressure and a lot of short passes, a lot of dump off stuff. There is your linebacker, ready to just jump in the middle of the lane, you get the desperate pass late, he's housing it the other way. And wouldn't this be the team, if we're not sure about Darnold, if JSN doesn't have a huge game, don't we want a Seattle defender to be the MVP to represent who Seattle has been about? So I like betting defense in the

Super Bowl, but I especially like it this year. I love this. I love this all. I can't wait to bet every single one of these because they also all align with what I'm looking for in the Super Bowl right now, which is Seattle to dominate. So other than the Patriot defensive special teams and money line, everything you're saying is just pure glory. We talked a little bit about escalators.

Brendan, I wanted your take on that because you are so good at doing the escalators. Outside of the Seahawks, give me an idea. like the most fun bet you can make in the Super Bowl as a time of escalators. Yeah. Yeah. So I think the most fun bet you can make, although a slight disclaimer, I call this the most fun bet on championship Sunday, and then I bet it,

and then it got hooked and missed by half a yard. But we're going back to the well and having the most fun a second time. I think it's Rashid Shaheed as a runner. This is the dude they went out and traded forward the deadline, and we're going to run it back. Rashid Shaheed rushing yards over. two and a half rushing yards. It's the most fun because not only are you,

you're betting two and a half yards, you're waiting for one play. We get, we get one shot at this in all likelihood. The entire Super Bowl, we're waiting for the one gadget, but you know we're getting the trick play, the reverse,

that the weird sort of play that you've been holding back the whole entire season. Shaheed has a rushing attempt in eight of 11 Seahawks games. They're using him as a runner, using him kind of like Percy Harvin. You might get like the backwards pass. screen that counts as a run. So we want a rushing attempt.

We got to start there. And he's gone over two and a half yards, five of 11 games. So not quite the number that we'd want there, but that also includes a two-yard game. And then last game was a zero. I bet him over a 0.5 yards. And he had a run over to the side.

And he had a yard. He just stepped out of bounds to avoid the hit like a pansy. Get the yard. Him to the bet for me. So over two and a half yard. Rashidjeejee, you owe me money this year. And the Patriots, allowed more rushing yards to receivers than any team in the NFL this season.

149. They allowed seven double-digit runs to a wide receiver this year. They allowed a 31. Chehita's had a 30 and a 31 for Seattle. So I haven't seen it yet. But if you get longest rush numbers for Rashid, longest rush escalator, a 10, a 20, a 30. If it gets a long one, what I have seen is you can just bet

what player will have the longest rush in the game. Rashid Shaheed, 30 to 1. If we don't think New England's going to run the ball well, and we think Walker might get bottled up a little bit, I think like 15, 20 yards could get it done. We get one shot, but man, when you're watching at the Super Bowl party and you're waiting, and it's the third quarter, and you're like, Brandon said one shot.

I know we're getting a run, and then you get the end around, and Shaheed's getting the ball, oh, man, the juicier feeling in that moment, when you have one chance to hit these Shahid bats, that's the most fun you have on Super Bowl Sunday. Again, the Super Bowl is very dumb. Last year, my favorite bet ever was Sequin was minus 300 to have the most rushing yards in the Super Bowl. 10 to 1 was Jalen Hertz.

That's who led to the Super Bowl in the most Russian yards last year. So it just, I love the idea. Just think outside the box, people, weird things happen. It's Super Bowl can get so wacky. It's the best. Well, let's talk about Kenneth Walker also because I've been betting a week. I said last week, I liked Kenneth Walker over his receiving yardage total. Brandon, you've got some Kenneth Walker props that you like as well.

Again, I didn't even know you were going to say this, but you're just going out of your way to make me feel good. That's what you brought me on here for it, Chad. I like to make you look good. Yeah, Walker, I've been betting his receiving in the playoffs. I hit this against San Francisco. Now obviously, Charbonnet is out, so we should get even more. Kenneth Walker on the field.

So last 10 games, his receiving has gone away up. 2.7 catches 28 yards. I don't that doesn't sound like much, but before that, 1.2 catches for 9 yards. All right, that's triple the yardage in the last 10 games compared to what he was early. And he's gone from 1.3 targets a game to 3.1 targets a game.

Again, that's more than double what we're getting there. And, again, if we're looking at the script, what's the script here? We might see some New England pressure up the middle. one weak spot for Seattle is the interior of the line. Well, if you get pressure, what do you need? You need the veteran running back who's going to be on the field. You need a quick outlet to dump off, get him into space and let him do this thing.

Patriots allowed the fifth most running back receptions on the season. Twelve running backs had three or more catches against the Patriots. So I like, Chad, I like the receptions bet as my base here. Over two and a half receptions. He's had three catches or more in seven of the last ten. But I think you're right to look at the yardage as well, because in those seven, games when he has three catchers or more, he's averaging 39 yards a game. He's at 29 yards or more six of the seven. So I'm going to skip your 20 yards that you're going for. And I'm going to

play my escalator on yardage here, 30 yards plus 160. So maybe add that onto your yardage. You get the receptions. I mean, because I like receptions as the higher play, because we could hit this with one. You just need one catch and then you bust a long one and you might hit the yardage as well, even if you miss the receptions number. I mean, I'm in. I'm all in, for Brandon. That's exactly what I'm looking for. What can you tell me about anything on the Patriots' offensive side of the ball?

If we are expecting this to be the kind of game, where the Patriots are trying to make a comeback, what are we looking at? Yeah, I think that the one, not the one, but one angle I do like for the Patriots, if they can sustain it, the Seattle defense is kind of league average defending short passes. That's by design.

They want that. If you're going to check it down and go on these 12 play, 14 play checkdown drives, Seattle says we're going to live with that because guess what? We're going to hit you, Drake, and we're going to get you to make a mistake somewhere along the way. So I think you want somebody to catch short passes. And I've been playing New England's running back receptions as well, Remandre Stevenson, but they cut on to that one. They move that line up to where I think Kenneth Walker should be.

It's three and a half receptions now. So I'm going to go to the tight end. tight ends against Seattle has been a good thing on the season. Seattle has since week eight, not allowed a 50-yard wide receiver to anyone, but again, the Rams, they allowed 50 to Pooka Nakua about four times a game in that one. But anyone else, no 50 yards, but running backs and tight ends are getting more luck. Seattle is allowed a 24% target rate to tight ends on the season. Their top six in most yards and receptions allowed to tight ends.

So Hunter Henry, I think, is in for a good game here. Not a huge game because, again, we like Seattle, but you can be a tight end and just kind of chew up some yards and catches on some short stuff down the field. Henry's only had six catches in the playoffs, but we already know New England's offense has sucked in the playoffs. We have these weird weather games. They're just running all week.

I don't really make too much of that. Over three and a half catches he's had in 9 of 17 regular season games, so just about half. But again, I looked at that one. Three and a half receptions is minus 140 for the over. I don't love doing a minus 140. You guys know I want to have the plus juice on something. So I said, okay, if he gets those catches, how about the yards?

Again, similar to the locker thing, we just said, look at the yards. He's had 39 yards or more, just over half of his games, 11 out of the 20. So I like over 39 and a half Hunter Henry yards. It's plus 105 at one book. Basically, you just need 40 yards here. Saddle's allowed 40 to a tight end, 10 regular season games, and both playoff games so far, even though they've had these dominating wins, 40 yards to a tight end in both games. Henry has only had two games this year where he had four catchers or more.

So he would hit the receptions, but under 45. But he's had four games where he had fewer catches than that, but still hit the 40 and over. So again, skip the receptions and go for the yards. And then I'll do the escalator there as well. So over 39 and a half, but 50 yards plus 155. Seattle's allowed that 12 times already this season. Henry's done 49 yards or more eight times this season. And it's a little nibble, probably not.

Probably this is not great for our Seattle side, but 80 yards plus 630. Henry does have a 90 and 150 in this season. Seattle's allowed an 84 times. So probably not a bet you want to parlay with Seattle minus 25. I do think Henry can have a big game. All right. Simon, anything we're missing? we got to give out our final pick, but before we let Brandon go, anything we're missing,

any bets you're thinking about, anything we haven't touched that we need to get Brandon's take on or that we want to share? No, I mean, I love it. It's like, again, just keep using your imagination of building these parlays. If you're taking that Henry bet, Drake May over 20 completions, over 31 pass attempts, throw them in there. Like, again, just keep building it out, people. You're trying to write your own script for the game and you're putting money behind it. And in your idea, it might sound crazy.

And then your favorite team, which I experienced, wins a super by 30 points and has a defensive touchdown. It's like build these bets because it comes through. It's it sounds wacky and you're doing it. It's like, ah, this will never hit. They hit. That's what, like, I feel like he's giving you guys a script right now of, I mean, like, I didn't even look at the script.

I didn't mean a step on it with a defensive touchdown one, but that's when I, I'm just like him. I blindly play it every year. And it happens. Like, I know we just got one last year, but I mean, it's NFL. things happening too. So yeah, I love it all. So yeah, people can tell how fired up. I'm, I'm already ready for Sunday. I got three more days, Chad, just to try to make it to the Sunday.

I love the, I love the my favorite team wins by 30 in the Super Bowl, just nonchalant. He says to a Vikings fan and a Bears fan, like we have any idea what that means. One day. Don't get rid of Chad. He's been insufferable about the Hoosers. Don't give him love right now. He's on a different stratosphere. It's been so hard for me to these past few weeks. Brandon Anderson, read them, listen to him, follow him at the Action Network and the Action Network app.

Thanks for coming on, buddy. Thanks, guys. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, next? Huge news. We created our own podcast called,

Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, a wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this is a trend.

This one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas. and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.

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Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough because people score board watch life becomes about wins and losses Steve Burns Dustin Ross because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth or are you a good person because you're afraid because

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All right, Simon, got to give out our final five picks for the contest. Tuesday, we will announce the grand prize winner of the Sharper Square pro football. Pickham contest again, thanks to everybody for playing.

It's fun to get people together and compete with each other and have a good time to talk about it. Our five official Super Bowl contest picks. Are you ready? Seattle minus four and a half.

First half, New England plus three and a half. We're going to give a little bit of logic on all these. Over under, we're going with the total under 45 and a half. We're going with

Drake May completions over 19 and a half. And we're going with Remandre Stevenson, total rush yards, under 53 and a half. Anybody who's hearing that can see that we believe the script is going to be. Seattle wins this game. Patriots are going to have to make a comeback in this game.

Not a lot of rushing attempts for Stevenson, not a lot of opportunities. and Drake me there with a lot of short checkdown passes with Brandon Anderson just talked about as being sort of the one thing the Seahawks would like to give up. I feel like everything we picked, Brandon Anderson helped buttress our thinking. Yeah, hopefully we are right about how we think the ship's going to go here. But it just, it feels like that type of game, right, that when you broke it down that, you know, there's a lot of numbers backing up what we're saying. We don't just blindly want to take this huge public favorite, right?

There's got to be numbers and things behind it to back it up. And I found tons of stuff that backed up argument. And he's just adding to it, right? A lot of those numbers he gave out, that's great data. And it's just you can whine and complain all you want if you're a Patriots fan. That's real numbers. Like that's nothing you can push up back again. So, yeah, when I look at this matchup and how I think it's going to go,

I asked Chad if I could put that plus three and a half Patriots first half number in there because to me that's that the number's not right. Especially when you're talking about Drake May who this season is like 17 and 1 or 16 and 2 against the spread in the first half. He's been incredible. I want to take a position on that right. Even though I think Seattle has a huge chance of blow and win this game big time, I do think it could be a feeling out process in the first half. And that's that's a big number of three and a half. That feels like a gift by our contest because most people. books have already moved to three two and a half so we're getting sucked in a little bit here because

of the hook can't pass up on that the three and a half so i appreciate chad let me get this new england plus three and a half we're uh definitely trying to thread the needle taking the the the seattle full game and the new england Patriots first half we're partners buddy we're in it together forever shlamiesel shlamazel we're like levern and trolley we're Milwaukee's finest And I'll be completely honest, it would have hurt to lose that, that Patriots, but obviously, in the first half. But if the Seahawks were up by 25, me and Chad aren't going to be crying. That's our dream scenario.

So it's an emotional edge as well. It's a great number, but it's also, you know, we're happy either way. And I just, I look at this game and as much as I want to believe Seattle's going to come out hot and fast and put up a ton of points, we talk about. Vrable is a great coach. I think he's going to have his guys ready to prepare. prepared. So I'm excited to see the chess match that's going to be Kubiak figuring out the next move against Rabel and how McDaniels goes against, you know, McDonald's is this incredible defense that the Sealks team has.

So, yeah, I really can't wait for the Super Bowl. It's going to be a great match. I know, like we said, there's not a bunch of people aren't going crazy about it right now, but I think as it gets closer to kickoff people, well, this is a great matchup. I hope Kubiak doesn't start daydreaming about Fernando Mendoza in the middle of the game, because I know with that affliction. is like it happens to me at least at least an hour of my day every day is spent dreaming about Fernando Mendoza and watching new compilation videos of his touchdown run that's it I cannot lie Kubiak might have that running on a on a just like on a real as he's trying to call plays for this game Simon Chatch choice was Seattle minus four and a half or no minus six and a half

brass balls was Patriot first drive punt. Patriots first drive punt. Simon Says was the under in the first quarter. I think we had eight and a half. Look, I think we've made it pretty clear. We're on Seattle. I'm on a lot of Seattle alts.

And every other prop I'm on is basically a narrative in which Seattle is winning the game and New England is losing the game and some outlier things happening. So I'm excited to see how all of this plays out. We will be back on Tuesday. This has been Sharper Square. Thank you so much for joining us here for our first season on the volume podcast network

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Download us from Spotify, Andrew, Apple Pod, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. I believe this five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until our Tuesday Super Bowl recap show, love you. Well, right now, Pat, the hoop was over. You know, they've waited maybe all their lives to be in this Super Bowl.

They've waited two weeks since their last championship game. They're in those locker rooms now. You just want to bust out of that locker room and get out of this field and get it started with. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick.

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Tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

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