The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Snaps - CJ Stroud vs. Bryce Young debate + Predicting Georgia, LSU & Notre Dame win totals

Episode Date: March 21, 2023

Aaron Murray and T-Bob Hebert debate whether Ohio State's CJ Stroud or Alabama's Bryce Young should be the number one overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Later, they predict the win totals for Kirby Smart's Georgia Bulldogs, Brian Kelly's LSU Tigers, and Marcus Freeman's Notre Dame Fighting Irish. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. What up, y'all? It's Teabob from SNAPS, presented by Fandul. Now, we're a college football show, but I'm a massive NBA fan. Now, I'm a Pelican fan, which can be a try and exist at times, and the news about Zion's been no fun lately, but whatever. I love the NBA, right? And if you love the NBA, there's no better place to get on the action than Fandul.

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Call 1-800-gambler. Call 1877-8 Hope in Y. or text Hope N. Y. 467369 in Y. Call 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG, Colorado, Indiana, Minnesota, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia. 1-800, next step, or text next step to 53342, Arizona. 1-888-789-7777. Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. 1-8009 with it. Indiana.

1-800-522-470 or visit KSgamblinghelp.com, Kansas. 1 8777-7-700 stop, Louisiana, visit www. W.DGamblinghelp.org, Maryland. 1-800-522-470-7-0, Wyoming. Or visit www.1-800-Gambler.net. West Virginia. Hello, everybody, and welcome in to Snaps. Welcome back to Snaps, your favorite college football podcast.

I am one of your hosts. Teabobobar, joined, as always, by the legend, QB1, Mr. Aaron Murray. I'm looking at my show. shot here though brum did we lose aaron and oh there he is yeah oh brum are we doing like a new live production thing here well like do i get like this solo 30 shots that's awful because i did oh okay because uh you guys is landing never sit in the same spot so i had to fix you guys i literally have not moved for a minute straight you're you are you are you are one you're

lying two it was t bobs fault okay okay okay okay okay okay well yeah okay okay okay three three, if y'all missed snaps last week, it's Brum's fault. Okay, he went on vacation to Puerto Rico and we're all on Brum time. And although me and Aaron are out of here, I'm out here doing the show, hungover 7 a.m. on the yacht club, Disney boardwalk. Aaron's out here in the Bahamas, ignoring his hot wife, uh, doing shows from the hotel and Brum's out here, galavanning in Puerto Rico, no snaps to be had.

Okay. So no, Aaron, it's not on us. It's on Brum. Real talk to take the blame. Yeah, exactly. I agree. It's never the on-air personality's fault. It's always the producer's fault. No, not really. I love Brum. He's incredible. And I love y'all. We did miss you. And I do want to apologize. I do not feel, um, I do not feel that we did a great job of communicating that we were going to be all. for a week. And that's on us. We have to be better in the future. I had multiple people reach out, wondering if we gotten canceled. We are not canceled. We are rolling. And you know why? It's because you all help us out every day, right? You help us out by hitting the like button here on YouTube. You help us out by

rating and reviewing the show on the podcast wherever you listen to Apple, Spotify, or whatever. And you help us out by telling your friends about it. Thomas Dare says, got one for the you got pegged segment if it comes back, which I guess we could bring that back as a segment. And then goes on to talk about Dr. Pershing, who if you don't know who that is, I'm not going to tell you who that is, because I don't want you to understand who that is. All right. We got a lot to get to today. We're going to talk a lot of quarterback today as we're going to rely on, imagine this, Aaron Murray and his institutional knowledge of the position of quarterback, as we look to see

who should be drafted one overall. C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young. You got the Panthers trained all the way up to number one, which I don't think we've done a show, or maybe we haven't since they did that. massive move by Carolina, who's also loading up with other moves as well, trying to get good. And it is gambling season, just an excellent weekend of March Madness,

college baseball, all this other stuff. Well, we have season win totals. That's right. And even though it's not the smartest because there's still spring ball and playing more information, I am going to bet every single win total pick that we give you today as we go through

some of the major teams around the entire country. So as always, let's come and have some fun for an hour. Aaron, what's up, man? How was your break? Break was lonely. I'm not going to sit here and lie, T. Bob. I missed you. I miss Brom.

I miss the boys. I miss our incredible loyal supporters who are with us day in and day out. So yes, I will reiterate with T. Bob. We are sorry for the miscommunication. The amount of tweets and message I got last night. Like, did you guys get fired? Is there no more snaps? I'm like, no, no, no, no.

We're just on vacation. We'll be back the next week. So it was good to get a little, you know, little chill time, get ready for March Madness. But we're back to work, baby. March Madness has been great. But, you know, we're getting ready for the draft too. So we're going to break down like Teabops had some great quarterbacks and then some sexy lines that we're going to start putting some money on now as we get ready for the next season. Also college baseball is back.

And if you're in Texas, say, an M-Fam, suck it. Georgia, suck it. O and three start. Tennessee. suck it getting swept by Missou, things you all love to see. Aaron, did you play any golf over the break?

Thomas Day or in the chat once in a now. Did I? Did I? There's a bear shit in the woods. Yes, I played golf during the break. Anytime your boy gets some days off, I'm like Teabob. I'm at the golf course.

I'm grinding away. I learn from the best. I learned from the best. Teabobbob is on our group chat, sharing swings. you know, his thoughts on how to become a better golfer. And I'm like, damn, I want to be like Teabobbob, those big, massive Phil Mickelson calves on the golf course.

There's a reason why Teabobbob looks a lot tanner than two weeks ago is because he's been hitting the range hard, ready to go for spring golf season. Rumor on the street too is Teabobb has like four passes to the masters that he may take a couple lucky fans to. No, wait. He's just living the dream. had such a weird lie to project there at the end because that's literally you isn't it like

like like in a world where nobody actually has master's passes in a world where people have to win lotteries and like very successful people who should be able to can't get their hands on them you have a year in and year out connection to the masters don't you i do not have a year in the year actually i do i should do but it's only for one ticket i am looking i am looking for multiple i'm looking for one more for Friday. So if anyone listening knows anyone who may have one extra Friday pass, um, nice. So you're going to take me with your name? We'll snap. He said yeah. No, no, no, no, no, no. What? I don't know, but I thought like I was golf bob now. I thought, you know, I thought like, okay, fine, fine, golf Bob. We can do shows live from outside the masters.

That'd be sick. Is Colin have any hookups, bro? Does Colin have some hookups with, uh, with, with, with the masters? No pressure. Snaps outside from Augusta. three weeks. Yeah, it's only three weeks away, dude. Get it done. It's so hard. What's hard? Also, congratulations to us. I finally got my vasectomy consultation, and Aaron has his on the books. So, although we are still weeks away from the actual cutting of the nuts, we are moving forward for all of you who are out there wondering, which I know many of you loyal listeners were. speaking of cut nuts it's nut cutting time boys okay it's almost time for the NFL draft which means you got to make some brass tax decisions about what's to be done by the way did you know that nut cutting time actually has nothing nothing to do with testicles

have you like have you ever heard the same nut cutting it has to deal with and you have like a a nut like roasted like or a nut like rusted onto a bolt and so the only solution left is to actually cut the nut with like, I don't know, pliers or whatever. So I thought that was pretty shocking. That's just a little fun aside. What we're here to talk about is Bryce Young versus C.J. Stroud, who should be the number one overall picking the NFL? And you're like, oh, but Teabobbop, what about Anthony Richardson?

And I feel you do. I feel what about Anthony. I mean, the cat who is a physical freak, best relative athletic score of all time at the combine for quarterback, touchdown and picket ratio of 12 to 2 over the final six games. But look, let's be clear. Anthony Richardson is going to the Colts at four. Indianapolis fans are ecstatic.

He's not going to climb to one. Okay. And so we are accepting that. I am accepting that as a truth going into this. I think that the Carolina Panthers traded up to take either C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young and, well, the sports book at fandulul.com slash sports book. We're up to put on this show. Uh, would back that as Aaron right now, C.J.

Stroud minus 220. Bryce Young plus 250, which like in terms of value. I love Benny Bryce Young and plus 250 be first overall. And the Richon plus 350, Levis plus 3,000. And then Jalen Carter plus 10,000, Will Anderson plus 10,000. So it's going to be one of the QBs. Likely it's going to be Stroud or Young. Aaron, before you get into some great information and articles that I've been looking up,

do you have a leader in your clubhouse just when you were first posed this question, who you think should be number one overall? Yeah, I'm leaning Stroud. I'm leaning Stroud heavy, especially because the last time I saw C.J. Stroud play a football game was him dicing up Georgia football and that defense. The defense had been dominant all year long and seeing him do that. I was like, wow, it wasn't the throwing because I knew he was a good thrower. You know, I even go back to earlier in the season, I remember a play versus Notre Dame where he had all-out blitz.

It's a cover zero blitz. So it's man-on-man on the outside. Usually they're bringing one more than you have to protect you. And he knew it. He recognized it. He saw it. He kind of retreated back. they're about the 25, 30-yard line.

He starts retreating, throws an absolute dime on a skinny post from the slot for a touchdown. I'm like, damn. Like recognition, seeing the blitz, film study, and then obviously taking that from practice into the actual game, and then go out there and executing it on that high of a level game of the week without your top receiver who got hurt earlier on the game. I was like, okay, this kid is legit.

We knew it. We knew he was pretty darn good after last season. And he just had a really good year. It was a little bit quiet. it wasn't anything sexy, as we've talked about before, it's kind of what is expected of an Ohio State quarterback. You go out there and you put great stats. And you kind of get numb to it at some point as a fan.

Like, okay, we get it. Like it's going to happen again this year. But plays like that, and then the plays that he made versus Georgia, in it outside the pocket, actually taking off and running at times, kind of showing some speed and athleticism. Some of the throws he made on the run

while being flushed from the pocket from that great defense line. I was like, that guy, he has checked off. every single box that I want. Good size, 6.3, 220, great arm strength, has shown mobility, has shown accuracy both in and outside the pocket, has played well in big time games. Like, there's nothing that he has not accomplished as a quarterback. And the same thing can be said about Bryce. Bryce is any big time game from, you know, Texas and that two-minute drive to the way he played throughout the season, the way he played

in the Sugar Bowl, which I had an opportunity to kind of see and do. everything's the same when it comes to that obviously a little bit more athletic maybe not as strong as an arm just as accurate but you know how i feel about his size he measured at 510 measure at 510 205 he's probably going to play at 190 i just that 4 or 5 inch difference to me is is that's the that's the big key you're talking about a guy that's 510 compared to a guy that's 6 2 1⁄ 6 3 and longevity of a career being able to play at the highest of high levels i think that's a pretty big big big thing that's a pretty big deal. So that's to me, that's the make or break because CJ has shown everything else that you want from a starting quarterback. Yeah. So in case you don't listen to a lot of snaps, you may

have been saying this, but I do find the overall quarterback evaluation fascinating this year from a template standpoint, right? Or in terms of answering, okay, what does the NFL actually care about? Because Bryce Young, and we'll see this when we dive into numbers, Bryce Young objectively, I think, has the best film, but the worst body. C.J. Stroud is right behind him film-wise, but ahead of him body-wise. Will Levis probably ahead of him body-wise, but way behind film-wise? And then Anthony Richardson by far has the best body, but also by far has the worst film, right? So who, like, I'm fascinated to see a couple of things.

What do NFL teams value? I mean, at four, is it Levis and Richardson? And then I also want to see how do these guys end up doing in their careers? And will that then change valuations going forward? So although this isn't a sexy quarterback class like Pennix and Caleb Williams and and Drake May for next year, this is a quarterback class that could have some massive ramifications on how we think about quarterback going forward. Like if Anthony Richardson turns into another Josh Allen type of story, then all of a sudden

these athletic freaks, they're going to continue to get their thumb put on the scale. If he ends up going bust, well, then Josh Allen kind of remains a bit of the outlier. All right, I'll say this. One great point I love the you made, Aaron. If CJ does become the number one pick, it was absolutely the Georgia film that did it. That was, he was fantastic. And then I'm glad that you brought up Bryce Young and the clutch gene, something that is kind of laughably, you know, you can be. Yeah, you can be flipping about it and you can make jokes about people talk about the clutch gene.

But it is legit. And there's something there. And there is nobody in college football that I wanted to see less when my team was trying to protect the lead or the game on the line than Bryce Young. Like even though they lost to LSU, it was not Bryce Young's fault. He made every single play that he could to win that game. To put him into overtime. He put it into overtime. I know.

It's the defense that did not do it as Brum tries to come at us and asking if the clutch gene exists. Yes, the clutch gene does Ask Tom Brady about that clutch gene Yeah, ask Tom Brady Brady. You look at the Yeah, Brom, greatest quarterback of all time. Goat.

The difference between the NFL and college football Is the difference between winning a football game And losing a football game is significantly low. It is literally Georgia versus Alabama Almost every single weekend. I mean, every Sunday you turn on the film Or you turn on, you know, whatever, CBS, CSPN and you're watching the game NBC.

It's within most games, most games are within a touchdown and most games are within a field goal and they come down to a two-minute drive. College football, these big time teams, man, 90% of the time it's a blowout. 90% of the time, you know, CJ and Bryce and Stetson and, you know, Caleb Williams, most of them, those guys are on the bench in the fourth quarter kind of send back having Huttah having a good time. They're not putting that stressful situation for 17, 18 games, having to put the on their hands and two-minute drives who go out there and win a football game. So I do think that's

legit. NFL teams know you win and lose games 50, 60, 70% of the time on a two-minute drive, whether it's your defense or your offense is going to have to make a play. So knowing that my quarterback has the Cajonais to sit in there when all hell's breaking loose, when all the pressure on the world is on them, and is calm enough to move a team down the field in a minute to either get a field goal or a touchdown to win the game. That's a big deal. You do two or three of those. That's two or three wins that get you into a playoff.

That gets everyone more money. That makes the fans happy. And if I know a quarterback is it better at that than another one, and I know half my games are going to come down to a two-minute drive, then maybe you do consider Bryce in that first pick in the draft because he is the best. He's one of the best two-minute drive quarterbacks that I've seen in a long time. I'm with you. Like there's no one I want in this draft class when,

when the balls and we need a touchdown and we got to march 70 yards in a minute and 30 seconds, I'm picking price every single time. Yeah. So I think that's a huge plus for him. It's a huge plus. He is calm, cool, collective, everything you want inside the pocket in those situations. And it's only going to help his draft stock. So let's start to dive in to a pretty fantastic article on this very subject that came out a couple of weeks ago from ESPN.com where they,

they they they dove into the analytics okay they came up with five areas in which they were going to evaluate these quarterbacks uh how they dealt with pressure how they through the deep ball their overall accuracy on short to intermediate routes um how they were out of the pocket and how they were throwing the NFL out route a throw that you can give us some further inside air to just how tough that throw is to make right um and and and so they dove in the numbers and then they combined it with Todd McShay who had formed his uh opinions based on watching film and they tried to see, okay, were there disconnects? Like, where did the numbers look different than what the film said? And let's just go here a bit by bit. Let's start with pressure.

And when you look at total QBR when pressured and total QBR win blitzed, I mean, C.J. Strowd and Bryce Young were very clearly the winners here with Bryce Young being maybe slightly more than Stroud. So total QBR win pressured. And again, this is not. not when blitzed. This is when, now it could be a blitz, but this went either like, you know,

your O-Lignment loss, somebody breaks through, you are under pressure. C.J. Stroud led the way a 30.6 QBR. Bryce Young, though, right there at 30.1.

And to provide some context on that 30 number, the other players that achieved that since 2013, Pat Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Kyler, Murray, Trevor Lawrence, Mack Jones,

Teddy Bridgewater, Mitch Trubesky, Dwayne Haskins, Sam Darnold. So not a perfect group, but a pretty damn good one, right? Like, it's a pretty good group to be a part of, mostly all very good. And then after that, the only other numbers that are really interesting on the pressured side, Hind and Hooker really struggled. He was incredible against the Blitz, as we'll see in a second, but it gets pressure,

and you saw that in the Georgia game. He was not great. So as you start to wonder, why is Hooker not more in this kind of? conversation. I would imagine Aaron that this is probably a key reason why. Well, yeah, it's a problem. One and two, obviously, you know, he really has had the ability to go out there and help his draft stock a ton. Like, yeah, he was great on, it was great and on the board and senior day. I'm sure he was great at the combined and, you know, measurables are great. He's great size and, and all those check the box. But there's a couple of things that do knock

end it. One, he hasn't been able to go out there and play in the senior bowl to show them that they can run a pro style offense. He wasn't able to go out there and throw him. on the scouting combine. He's going to have to execute this pro down on what his pro day is going to look like. I was in a similar situation to Hendon where I wasn't able to do all those things. All I could do is good on the board, but I had a makeshift pro day where I did throw, wasn't able to do everything, was able to throw a little bit to kind of just give a progress of support of where I am in my recovery for the NFL scout.

So he's probably, I would assume, do the same thing if recovery's on schedule right now. So he hasn't been able to do a lot of stuff to help him. But yeah, there are a couple of things that we've, one, we've already talked about, two-minute drive. Can you handle two-minute drive? And two, can you handle pressure? You know, as you move up these levels, just like anything in life, mostly, it gets harder and it gets faster. And your ability to process has to be better as a quarterback. So, you know, high school football.

I'm going against high school football. I'm watching film every single day. It's cover three. It's cover four. You may get a little nickel blitz off the slot. That's about all you get. It was so easy. we would call four verticals and I would throw five, six touchdowns a game because all I would do is look to safety one way and throw it the other way.

I mean, it's stupid. Go watch my highlights. All it is is cover three and you want to cover four. We're just their double post. You move to college. You see a little bit difference. You know, you go, you see a little bit zero, some quarters, some quarter quarter quarter half. So three little one. You take it up a notch.

And the speed gets faster. You see your basic blitzes, some saw all that. You move to the NFL. All of a sudden you're going three down, four down. everyone standing up, single high, two high, no high to two. I mean, there's so much going on that you have to process where if you can't get that done at the level before the minor leagues, what makes you feel like you can get it done at the next level at a consistent clip, especially early on?

So everything gets faster, everything gets more complicated. And so yes, that is a little bit of a knock on him. I think to me the biggest knock on Hendon fundamentally is Hendon's arm tends to lower when he throws a football. you saw a lot of balls sail on him. A lot of times the receivers are having to jump in the air about 10 yards down in that 10 to 15 yard range, jumping up to catch the football. And you're kind of like, man, he's a big kid.

Why is that doing that? It's because he oversrides and his elbow tends to drop, causing the ball to sail. So I'm sure these are a lot of fundamental work that he's working right now, keeping him more of a compact base, getting his arm up, able to drive the ball. If he can prove that to me at his pro day that he looks a little bit more smooth with that, I'd feel a little bit better. But a lot of it comes with pressure too. When you feel pressure and you can't step into a throw,

you kind of fall back, you overshry it and the elbow drops, ball sailing you're a lot more inaccurate. So these are all things like I said that, that he has the tools to get better at. I don't think it's a big, big concern, but he's going to have to show him at the pro day. So, okay, so then getting back to Young and Stroud here, that was a total QBR when pressure.

They both were over 30. By the way, the national average was 14. Okay, so they're double. The national average, the national average QBR when blitzed was 59.4. C.J. Stroud checks in at 85.3. Bryce Young, 89.9.9 QBR win blitz. So nobody better at the country at recognizing what a defense was trying to do and then how to immediately take advantage of it than Bryce Young. But I mean, look, I want to be clear. I think that's a negligible, negligible difference between him and Stroud, right? I mean,

Stroud against the Blitz this year, Aaron, 8.8 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, zero interceptions. Fifteen times a zero. And I always think back to that Notre Dame game, where they really bottled up that Ohio State office the entire game. And then the one time they chose to attack him, what do, like you said, you know, fades back, drops it in there, bam, touchdown. So when it's all said and done, I'm putting under pressure as a wash, right? I don't think there's a clear winner here. They're they're essentially putting up the same numbers. I agree. I was nice in the stat list for you. Wait, what? I do think, I do think the one difference when it comes to pressure

that I would, I would give Bryce the edge to here is the extending the play. And we saw a little glimpse of it from CJ. I'll go back and re-talk about that Georgia game. You saw that, But there is a at the next level, and even at the college level, you know, Caleb is great at it. The more you can buy time for your receivers, the more opportunity for big plays down the field. It's really, really hard to sit back and create explosive plays in three seconds, in two and a half seconds. And that's how fast it happens. You got to make decisions in a split second. You've got to get the ball out now.

I mean, these guys, you saw the combine. These players nowadays on the defense side of the football and offense side of the football, they're 6364 and they're running four fours and four fives. That means that that quarterback has to make a decision now and get the ball of his hand. So a lot of that is the intermediate game. That is 10, 15 yards. Catch it. You hope for a tackle or a broken tackle and maybe get another 15 to create an explosive play like that.

But a lot of your explosive plays are because of a quarterback getting outside the pocket, extending the plays, forcing a play to go from. three to six seconds and all of a sudden a receiver gets open down the field and then you hit him down there. So to me, Bryce is better at that. And that's something that I think is more enticing to NFL scouts, that consistent clip of creating explosive plays because of my ability to buy some time when things aren't open initially. The tournament is heating up. And as always, there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandul, America's number one sports book. And that's because right now, Fandil is giving new customers a no sweat first bet up to $1,000.

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1-800-522-4-70-Wy-Wy-Gambler. Wyoming. Or visit www. 1-800-Gambler.net. West Virginia. Well, Aaron, I got good news for you. We'll jump to category. four out of the pocket stats and analytics and it looks like somebody watched a film because

uh times they're asking where is j daniel this is the only guys going in the NFL that they that they did these numbers on but outside oh so inside the pocket cj stroud uh was slightly ahead of young an 86 qb r to 82 but outside of the pocket brys young had a 95.7 qbr kbr the single toughest metric score high in. Bryce Young had a 957. C.J. Stroud had a 69. It is one of the clearest differences that you will find between the two on this entire list. So without a doubt in the extending plays, mobility with your feet, Bryce Young, the clear winner over C.J. Stroud in that regard. What about the deep ball? This is a number two element that they looked at here. And, oh, let me find it real quick okay hold on here we go and it looks like uh so these are throws 21 yards or

more through the air downfield uh c j stroud had a higher completion percentage completing 50 to brys young's 45 um but brys young was a better target he was only off target 25% of the time whereas cj stroud was off target 32% of the time so i think you could almost explain the completion difference there because Ohio State had much better weapons than Alabama. I think this tells me that Bryce Young was actually throwing a better deep ball, but that Stroud's receivers were a bit better at making a payoff. Well, they're significantly better. I mean, to me, the reason why Bryce Young doesn't have a national championship is because of his receivers. I think everyone realizes that. I mean,

If he had receivers two years ago, they probably beat Georgia. If they had receivers this year, they're at least in the playoffs. They're not losing both those games. They're winning one of them, and they're going to be fighting for an opportunity to be one of the final four teams at the end of the day. So he has done more with less than anyone. And it's so funny, as we continue to kind of go through these categories and I talk it out, you know, I still, there is a difference, which sucks.

there is a difference in talent between Bryce and CJ. Bryce is more talented. As we go through all this, there is no question about it that Bryce is more talented. Bryce, you know, maybe a little bit less of an arm strength, but he's just as accurate.

He's more mobile, which I think is huge in today's game. He has that two-minute drive, that it factor that I want the ball in his hands when it comes to crunch time. He's just 5'10. It sucks. I mean, literally,

it's so crazy. As we've got to go through these categories and break it down, the more I'm like, dude, Bryce was a baller. Like Bryce was unreal. I know. It's so much was so less. And it's not like he'd had crappy players.

I mean, listen, he had really good receivers. He might not have had the elite receivers that CJ had. He might not have had the elite receivers that, you know, we're used to seeing Alabama had over the past, you know, decade plus. So they were good, not great. There wasn't a bunch of first rounders or second rounders. But what he did to elevate their game and to take that team to another level and make that team competitive,

week in and week out. You're like, golly, he was good. But he's just 5-10. It sucks. It's just hard for me to wrap my brain around. There's been maybe one or two other quarterbacks in the history of the NFL to have elite success as a 5-10 quarterback. I mean, there's so much data going against him in this size

that it's like can a guy that is that good overcome the challenges when the game is about big people? It is a big person game. You know it. The game is about giant human beings. That's, it's a very funny. It is a giant human being.

No, you're exactly right. It is big fucking people. They're huge. Straight up. Are you big? You got, I mean,

it's true. Like, you can't play O line in the NFL unless you're at least like 6.3, 300. Right? Like you ain't, you ain't making it on there unless that's just your baseline size that you're

dealing with. Oh, yeah, Aaron, look, we're going along here. And I know I'm being a little numbers heavy. So you, you pretty much summed it up. I'll give you these final numbers on short-term intermediate accuracy,

again, to your exact point. Bryce Young's unbelievable. 10 yards or fewer, he had an off-target percentage of 1.8.8% of the time, Bryce Young is putting the ball exactly where it needs to be. And then when it came to 11 to 20 yards, it's at 11.9, which is third on this list. Where it gets interesting, for Stroud here. And when I'm like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, is this enough of a red flag? Look, I look at, okay, CJ Stroud had the best receivers, right? So in theory, throwing these routes should have been easier than anybody else. I look at the fact that we saw Ohio State quarterbacks and all the success that they have and how it hasn't always translated to the NFL. And then I look at this fact, the fact that the FBS averages, the off target average for

short routes was 5.8 percent. C.J. Stroud was at 6%. Intermediate routes was 17%. C.J. Stroud, 17%. So really, compared, I mean, C.J. Stroud is about as accurate as your average college quarterback. And when you're talking about NFL,

where maybe the biggest difference, Aaron, I'll ask you, is one of the biggest differences between college game and the NFL game just that the windows get tinier? Like that's what my old man always told me about. It's just like you have to be able to put a ball within a shoebox, basically, and that's your only chance of completing the ball.

That's a pretty scary analytics for CJ Stroud to be putting out there, to be essentially throwing at the same rate as your average college quarterback. Well, it's not only the windows tighter, but you have to process so much faster. It's no longer you get two hitches to throw a football. It's, you know, so say you have your basic hook curl concept. You know, three, you're taught three hitched, let it rip. Well, college sometimes you may get three hitch and maybe like another quick hitch just to kind of confirm that you can able to drive that ball in there. NFL, if you take that extra hit, it's a pick.

It's a pick. That's a difference. I mean, it's it's accuracy, obviously, because the windows are tighter, but it's also the ability to process and get the ball out on time. You talk about the big boy throw that out route. If you don't five, you know, we'll say from under center, if you don't five no hitch set thing and throw it on the, you know, essentially on the sidelines or it's a catch and he walks out of bounds, say you take five in a quick hitch or you five and you throw it a yard too far inside,

it's a pick. That's the difference. You can get away with it in college. NFL, it is all about timing, anticipation, trust, and just let that bitch rip. That's it. Let it rip. If you think for a split second too long and you can't process it, it's it's done deal night night you're getting sacked or the ball is is getting knocked down uh and and to be

fair that is where c j stroud gets his really only big win against bryce young on this analytical breakdown is he is significantly better at that NFL out route uh it's actually a point of struggle for brys young he only completed 40% of them um he's pretty accurate though at 22 but again that's right at the college average could maybe explained would that been maybe so So at the end of the day, it's exactly what Aaron said. Bryce Young has better film. He's a more talented quarterback, but CJ Stroud's very damn talented and he's just bigger. However, after doing this exercise, push comes to shove, man.

I'm falling in the Bryce Young category. And I thought you were to say Anthony Richardson. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. I've accepted that my boy, AR isn't going number one. But I do think he's going to go number four and it's hilarious because you have a Colts fan base that is, used to having like Peyton Man and Andrew Luck and they've all convinced themselves. They're going to be super excited for this project quarterback to come hang out for a couple years. I don't know that I believe them, but we'll see. No, but I'm going to Bryce Young, man.

I get it. He's small. There's not a lot of precedent for that, but we live in unprecedented times. Quarterbacks are protected more than ever. And although we haven't seen a lot of 511 quarterbacks do what Bryce Young, or excuse me, even though we haven't seen a lot of them in the NFL, we haven't seen a lot of 511 quarterbacks do what Bryce Young did in college either. So if I was trying to determine my franchise's future, I would go with who I believe to be the most talented QB. 5'10. I know. I know. I don't care. I don't care. I'm landing on, and I get it, CJ Stroud is probably the best film to size ratio. I don't care. I'm going with Bryce Young, number one overall. I love the intangibles. I love the raw football talent. And I'm just going to bet on

that young man to be able to overcome his hobbit-like size uh listen what i'm doing what you want me what i'm doing tank for Caleb no tank for Drake tank for Caleb tank for Drake suck for a year sell everything you got and get one of those quarterbacks what about don't what about don't winix for pinnix huh about that dude When are you going to show Michael Pinnock, Jr. some respect and put him in that top three? Why does Pinnock's not get in there? Because Drake and Caleb are that much better than everyone else.

Penix may be number three next year. He may be number three. He's probably a first round. He'll be back. Just wait until Pinnix tears up the Pact 12 next year, tears up college football. Just wait to my boy, Carson, Beck throws like 30 touchdowns with Bobwell this year. Exactly.

30 touchdowns is not that tight anymore. Like that's like you're starting quarterback for Georgia against a shit schedule. If you don't throw 30 touchdowns, we got major problems, especially coming out of the Monkin era. It's a good point. That's a good point. All right. 35. There you go, Carson.

35 is the guy. Yeah, yeah, Georgia fans. I think y'all should be really excited about the guy that rode the bench for the last three years. Yeah, you got a real committed guy there. He's not good enough to start. But hey, whatever, dude, he's very committed. No, look, I have fun. Just wait.

I applaud cars. Again, we know, but that's the problem with Georgia. We know. T. Bob's so pro quitters. T Bob's pro. That's what we're learning. T bob is pro quitters.

T bob is pro. You know, I'm a prima donner. I didn't get my job in the first year. I'm going to go hit the transfer portal. That's that's T-B mentality. He is your ultimate country club fella, plays golf,

gets a great tan, is at the driving range. And when push comes to sub, he's just going to hit the portal. That's T-Bob. So I rarely bring up my own playing experience. but I will do so to heighten the absurdity of this baseless attack on my character.

I started three years at LSU. I never entered camp as a starter. Not once. Every fucking year, they tried to bury me on the depth chart, and I had to fight my way into a guard or center position, finally to get to start. Okay, so no.

No, yeah, you're pro tank. Thank you, Thomas. Exactly. Yeah, your pro tank, you're out here telling these fans, these teams to lose

and piss off their fan base just get Caleb Williams. No one's going to get pissed off and get just draft Caleb Williams. No one's going to get pissed off and you can draft Caleb Williams. You're probably right. And I think there is a lot of secret tanking going on in the NFL right now to try and accomplish just that.

All right. Let's get in some wind totals. His Fandu has wind totals up on the site right now. We're going to run through these. See where we land. These are regular season win totals. So for instance, if it's a 10.

and a half, then we're talking about a team going 11 and 1, right? This is not 12 and 2 with a bowl game. Regular season win totals. We'll start with the Michigan Wolverines. The number is set at 10 and a half. However, you're getting plus odds if you go with the over at plus 16 minus odds on the under. So Vegas tipping their hand and telling you they're not really believers too much in

Michigan hitting that 11-1 regular season? I am, man. I, you know, they have the pieces on both sides of the football. JJ was massive improvement towards end of the season. Yeah, he had the two picks, six is in the bowl game. I get that in the first round of playoffs. But the fact that he was able to still put the team on his back and make that game competitive in the second half was just incredible to see the way he played versus

Ohio State, the way he played in the Big Ten championship game. I think that was only his first season starting. I think he can take enough of a step forward along with Blake Corum is going to be back. He says he should be healthy to go by fall camp. You got the best running back in the country. A team that has kind of figured out how to beat Ohio State. Ohio State has to figure out who the hell their quarterback is going to be. I think, and you get Ohio State at home as well at the end of the season.

It's a cupcake schedule. I mean, it's not as easy as Georgia, but their first four games of the season, Eastern Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green, Rockers. Then you're on the road versus Nebraska rebuilding year. Road Defense, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue. The hardest game on their schedule is going to be at Penn State November 11th. It's kind of like Georgia. It's the same weekend.

I believe Georgia plays Tennessee. Like that's a big time weekend for the big boys. But still, even if you lose that game, I think they should beat Ohio State for the third consecutive year this year. So giving Michigan with that 10 and a half, I think they beat Penn State anyways. The schedule is just too easy for them. They're more talented. They've gone to the point right now.

They're more talented than everyone else. on their schedule. They know it. They believe it. They bully you. They punish you. I think they're going to do it for a third straight year. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm going to do a little gambling gamesmanship here because Ohio State is also at 10 and a half wins. Now, interestingly, minus odds for Ohio State on both the over and the under. So Vegas thinking Ohio State is maybe slightly better. I would take the over with both, right? Because one of them certainly will hit. I don't know that I'm enough of a believer in James Franklin. I think that both will not hit the same way they both hit this last year.

Where are you going on Ohio State? I'm going to go under. I think they're 10-2. I think there's more of a potential with them because of that Notre Dame game. You look at their schedule and I say Michigan, like, okay, how many games could they possibly lose? And realistically, if they played really good football, maybe versus Penn State and maybe versus Ohio State. So can they split those two?

Yeah, I think they can. You look at Ohio State, there is a third one in there that is on the road early on the season, week four versus Notre Dame, as you're still breaking in a new quarterback, as you're breaking in a new OC, are they going to be ready to go to play a Marcus Freeman team that should be better on both sides of the football next year? I'm not extremely confident there. Plus, you obviously play Penn State and then you're on the road versus Michigan. I would lean more towards over Michigan under Ohio,

or yeah, under Ohio State that 10 and a half number. Oh, okay. I love that. Georgia, regular season wins over under 11 and a half. So essentially this is, do you think they'll go undefeated or not? And if you do, you're going to get plus odds here for all you Bulldogs. You might want to act now.

It's plus 116 to bet Georgia go 12 and no. hate to say it, but I'm going to bet them to go 12 and 0. Why wouldn't I? Okay. I mean, who are they going to lose to? Tennessee. Tennessee is it. That's it. Sure, Tennessee might be good, but then again, they're working in a new quarterback as well. Like, because of the time constraints, I didn't mention Henan Hooker on a lot of those charts that we talked about to start the show, but like he scores highly in almost everything there. Like, Hinn and Hooker was great. I'm not sure yet that Joe Milton can be that guy. So, no, it was. Joe's a stud.

Okay, we'll see. We'll see. I think he's a stud. I just, I just think. George's defense for two straight years has dominated this offense. They have it. They figured it out.

They know what it takes and they have the personnel to slow it down. And this is going to be, to me, I think possibly Georgia's best defense of the past three years, which is fucking scary. So I like Georgia going to feed it. That's it. And for what we know about Georgia, they can get up for one game. Like that's the thing. This is going to be their best defense. 10 weeks.

It's going to be their best defense. They can show up. It's going to be their best defense. The last three years. It can be their best defense. You should me. How? How?

They were young. They keep losing guys to the NFL. Have a winner. They didn't lose as many last year. They didn't lose as many last year or this year. You don't lose as many this year. No way. Shuman and your new $1.9 million contract, your $800,000 raise to be a co-D.C.

Oh my God, unbelievable. Yeah, I'm taking Georgia go undefeated without doubt. Like, not even thinking twice about it. All right, next on this list, Colorado over under a four and a half. I already have a bet in on the over. I guess I'm just going over everybody's far. But I don't know. Actually, looking at Colorado's schedule, I don't feel great about the over four and a half.

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I do not. It is a tough schedule. I'm going to go under that four and a half. Yeah, I was all hyped on Prime when I made it. Listen, four wins is an improvement. Four wins is an improvement for them. But the Pack 12 is going to be pretty damn good this year.

It is a very, very good Pac-12. You get Utah at the end of the season two, which kind of sucks. You get, you know, their quarterback should be healthy by then. He should be healthy by the middle of the season. But, I mean, you kind of look at the schedule. Like, where the wins are you at? You got to face on the road versus TCU. You know, Nebraska, which is more talented than you.

You get them at home. then you're at Oregon, USC, UCLA, Oregon State, Washington State, Utah. It's just, it is tough to find five wins in that schedule with a Colorado team that won one game last year. So I know they're improved when it comes to talent. It's just I think the Pacto is going to be pretty competitive next year. So give me under that one. I blame Ryan Brumley. He probably had me all hyped up on Prime and we're playing some like cool highlights of him or something.

and then I got fired up and placed a bet over on the over. But I'm with you. I would bet the under for you're doing it today. Penn State over under nine and a half. So this is basically even like Penn State's getting some rope here. This is saying Penn State can still, um, can still lose to, to Michigan and Ohio State, but will they beat everyone else?

And I'm a James Franklin hater. I'm going to go under. I'm going under the nine and a half. I think they end up nine and three. I think they slip up somewhere else. I'm going to go over. I'm going to go over. I think they win one of those games.

I think they beat Ohio State or Michigan. I think they're good enough to do that. They finally got some running backs. They recruited well. You know, they get all in the quarterback. I mean, can he be that five star that we kind of got a glimpse of last year? And if he is, that offense is going to be rolling. So I'll take the over.

I think they split one of those games. And if not, I still think they, they went out the rest of them. Tennessee over under nine and a half wins. Over. Peace. God, why are we picking over in all these? That's what I'm saying. That's the fucking red flag.

Why do you, why do you, why are we so sure that Tennessee is going to go? Nine and a half. They got to win 10 games. Oh, I'm going to go on there. We'll go under. We'll go under. We'll go under. Nine and three feels great for Tennessee next year.

nine and three with a chance to get the 10 and 3 in the bowl game. That feels like exactly what Tennessee is going to do next year. I think it's a good spot. I'm with you. Give me the under. Notre Dame over under eight and a half wins, completely even odds on both sides of the equation. You just made Paul Farrington's Day saying that you think that Notre Dame could

potentially get Ohio State. It sounds like you're a Notre Dame believer, Aaron Murray, which by the way, I think I am. I think even though I hate losing Tommy Reese, I think I'm taking the over here. I think I'm going to Notre Dame get nine wins. What did you say, A and a half? Yeah, it's eight to a half.

A and a half, A and a half. I'll take it too. I like nine. You have three games. You get Navy week one, which I think is great, because you have now, you always want to play that game first. Get it out of the way. You can prepare for it.

You get more time to kind of figure out the triple option during offseason. You know, they're going to work it on in spring. they're going to work on in fall camp. You're going to have a solid plan to try and slow that. And plus you're fresh too. You've got fresh knees. It kind of sucks because it kind of screws your defense up a little bit, but then you got Tennessee State afterward.

So I think they'll have a great game plan to slow down that triple option. You know, you get Ohio State at home. The tough games, USC at home too. You know, the tough games are going to be at Clemson, November 4th is going to be a doozy. But I think they have the better quarterback. And, you know, if you have the better quarterback, you have a chance to win.

So give me over Notre Dame. in that eight and a half. Yeah, that's tough, man. I don't like them in any of those three matches,

but I like them and all the others. Imagine that. That's how Vegas does it. LSU over under set at eight and a half. I mean, you know, if you're asking me,

yes or no, does a bear shit in the woods and they need a ton of salmon and blueberries before it goes to sleep for six fucking months? Yep. Am I going to take LSU over eight and a half? Yep. Hell yeah, dude. Give me LSU the overhead last year.

like seven weeks into the season. Give me LSU over the eight and a half win total. Don't even need to look at the schedule. And Brian Kelly, we trust. I'm a full cult of Kelly. I'm with you. If LSU goes eight and four, they're going to be ready to burn Baton Rouge to the ground. Yes, yes. Very fair, bro. That's a

great point. Like, like, that actually should be a major red flag. Um, uh, that should be a major red flag potentially for Baton Rouge fans because that's showing that. I do think they lose, I do think they lose week one now. They're going to lose week one.

Everyone's going to freak out. You're stuck a little bitch about Florida State. But they'll go 10 and 2. They'll go 10 and 2. Mike Norvell, more like Mike Borvel, okay? He got lucky last season with the brand new Jayden.

The thing about college football is that if LSU beats Florida State, they're going to be like LSU sneaky national champion. And if LSU loses to Florida State, is Brian Kelly overrated? Yeah, hell yeah. People will be running him out of town.

That'd be our fucking headline. We already have our headline one way or the other. Yes, we already have our headline. Is that a Sunday, that's a Sunday night show too. Yeah, that's the next Monday, September 5th. Or is it Monday night. Two thumbnails with happier. Disparity of narrative.

Like disparity of results is what makes sports so great, right? The larger the disparity in terms of heartbreaker gladness, the more fun it is to watch because everything that's on the line. I will say this, the over eight and a half for LSU, minus 1.30. whereas the under is plus 108. So they're telling you a little bit that they too are feeling probably over there. And then finally, the Hawkeyes, everybody's favorite team. Who picked this one?

No, chill out, dude. I love the Hawkeyes are funded. Iowa. I mean, I think Nebraska should be in there. Brum, explained yourself. Why are the Hawkeyes? That is available win totals on Fandall right now. Oh, okay.

And Iowa legal gambling state. That's why. Yeah, hell yeah. Good. Who's our girl from Iowa, the content creator that I think is so funny. Oh, Lucy Rodin. Yeah, she's amazing. Yeah, shout out Lucy Rodin.

The number one Iowa follow on the internet. Unfortunately for Lucy, I got to go with the minus 164 under the eight and a half. I just cannot trust Brian Forintz's offense enough to push him to nine and three of this big ten. I just can't do it. Nope. Noop, noop, give me the under. God, that's so bad. Look at their schedule too, man.

I love at Penn State, at Wisconsin, at Nebraska. Eich, Eich, at Iowa State. I really haven't even considered Luke Fickle in any of this math this entire day. Luke Fickle, Wisconsin, baby, let's go. That's what I'm saying. Is Fickle just get like a kind of like a chill year, though, where we don't really judge him? where it's like okay whatever do i think i think it's a big enough brand at wisconsin where expectations are going to be you he still needs to win eight games for them to be happy year one

eight games yeah i tell i tell yeah yeah for sure for sure is a good for sure yeah eight and four is a very good for the biggest because do they play hmm now i got to do a wisconsin schedule they play they play they play they play ohio state they play okay but they don't have to get michigan they don't get michigan it's actually a pretty easy Bro, this is kind of looking like a nine. This is looking like a nine and three. Like Luke Fickle might need to go nine and three with this. I know they were bad last year, but they don't play anybody.

I mean, Washington State's not bad, actually. That's a little frisky. But outside of that, I mean, can Burt do it again to Illinois? But still, if you're Luke Fickle in Wisconsin, you just need to build Illinois. Like, that's just not allowed to lose to them. We all know that Matt Ruhle, Nebraska are going to be the premier program here in a little bit, but maybe not right now. Yeah, no, I'm changing.

I think Wisconsin has to go nine and three for their fans to be really excited. By the way, Matt Ruhl held his first spring practice as the head coach of Nebraska, and he had it at 5 a.m. because he's a man. And he wanted to make sure these kids are good and ready to go for the day. Not really. He did have it at 5 a.m., but it was because of some weird scheduling thing.

I don't know. Has Georgia started spring ball yet? yeah we're really day four tomorrow yeah they had first practice last thursday saturday so day i mean i just i just figured there was so much like work to be done on kind of fixing the culture and everything that i know i'm kind of i'm just kind of shocked that all are uh curby's head's about to explode right now with with how bad the culture is i mean my i mean look i don't don't don't fucking clip that brum don't not clip that yeah yes yes yeah well we are clipping in fact we'll probably talk about Georgia culture a bit on tomorrow's show. We also have the curious case of

Tom Herman, who now has just popped up at FAU. Assistance continue to get paid max money. The Big Ten's trying to figure out their schedule. Did you see the Larsa Pippin clip, Aaron Murray? Do you know who Larson Pippin is? Scottie Pippin's ex-wife. This what's do this woman went on. I'm going to leave you all with this as I barrel right through Brum's objections. This. This is a barrel right through Brum's objections. This woman claimed on the Andy Cohen show, you know, the guy that does all the Bravo shows, uh, that her and Scotty Pippin for 23 years straight had sex four times a day, seven days a week. Four times a day, seven days a week. Unbelievable of just cannot be.

It's going to be me after I get snipped. I don't think it's beautiful. I think that sounds like torture. I mean, three times a week is great. Everybody's happy. You're doing your job. Like, it's not too much. Four times a day, I'm sweating, thinking about it.

I'm getting anxious. Like, like, who are you? What kind of impossible bar are you holding yourself to? Just go to sleep. Just go do anything. Go talk to your kids. Hey, when is that good, when it's that good, I ain't going to judge someone for it. There's nothing that good.

there's nothing that good obviously there is no it's physically impossible for something to be that good to be four times a day they beg to differ they beg to differ 23 years straight please get the hell out of here dude

insatiable I suppose all right look we love you another episode of Stapsin book we're so happy to be back let's regain shout out Riley hint at Chazes Michigan JJ in year two more pod presence 12 and now okay we're gonna see but yeah

Yeah, let's have fun hanging out throughout the week. We'll be on AMP at noon Central Wednesday tomorrow and back live here. To be missed your and one central normal schedule this week. We love you. Please like the post. Share the podcast with your friends. Thank you to Fandall and a thank you to Paul Ferretton, Pat Gunner, Ryan Brumley, Danny Cardenas, Adam Gracia.

And who is that adorable little doggo right there, Aaron? What? What? What? Harper. Like five ball? Harper. Oh, oh, oh.

Oh, hi, hopper. Okay, that was weird. That's what you did. Oh, hop ball. Okay. Well, we love you, Aaron. You have a good radio show. And we love you, everybody in the chat, hanging out with us.

You should all listen to Snats four times a day. And you'll be as satisfied as Larsa Pippen is. We'll see you tomorrow. Howl.