The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Straight Fire - Setting expectations for the Cowboys, Bills, Broncos + Right Angle’s Adam Chernoff

Episode Date: August 3, 2023

Jason McIntyre is joined by Right Angle Sports Adam Chernoff to get his perspective on what to expect from Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys, Russell Wilson and Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Plus, Adam gives his expert advice on how to bet NFL Futures and win totals.  Click here to subscribe, rate and review all of the latest Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre podcasts! #Volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast.

From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.

84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes,

follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. The volume. This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up, Straight Fire, fam? It's me, Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Thursday, August 3rd. amazing interview today if you like football. It is great content for gambling.

A couple things, I honestly, not even on my radar heading into this NFL season. You will learn a lot. Adam Chernoff, very smart man. I think you'll like the podcast. Before we get to Adam, just two quick notes. Number one, your boy has finally secured Taylor Swift tickets. I will be there. At 05, very, very fired up to see Taylor Swift.

I haven't been to a concert of this magnitude. I'm embarrassed to say the first big, big concert I went to. And again, I was a little guy. It was cool at the time. They were popping off. I saw Millie Vanilli. Yes. And like six months later, they got popped for lip-synkeg or whatever it was.

But at the time, it was like the coolest thing ever. And I remember I was about to start dating this girl. And I went to an actual pay phone at the concert and called her. To be like, yeah, I'm at the mill. You know, it wasn't when you had like cell phone. Okay. Sorry, young people. And I called her to like kind of flex. I was like, yeah, yeah.

You want me to get your T-shirt or whatever? And I'll never forget, like, no, even it was a cool concert. I mean, again, I was a young kid. I didn't really know better. But let the good times roll, Taylor Swift. In other news, in actual sports news, how about Leon L. Messi?

You guys know I'm a soccer guy. I play in some dad tournaments. I'm a minority owner of a soccer team in Mexico in the top league. I obviously, World Cup is my favorite sporting event. it is, I mean, it's every four years, so it's better than March Madden, it's better than anything. I love soccer. I have, I'll watch MLS if it's on.

I'll check it out. But I'm not scheduling alarms in my phone for MLS games the way I do for Leonel Messi. I put it in my phone, 5 o'clock, Messi, 5 o'clock Pacific. So yesterday I turn on the game, and of course it's a rain delay because of Florida. And, you know, I go about my business periodically checking to see when it's going to start. because Messi is usually dominating these games early. And, you know, again, Messi scores like seven minutes in.

I was able to see it. And just watching him is, honestly, it is so much fun. I know everybody liked watching Patrick Mahomes. I love watching Mahomes. Steph Curry. But Messi's just a different beast. I'm just going to remind you guys. Miami was the worst team in the league.

Messi comes in, and they have now rattled off, I believe this is three straight wins. Messi with two more goals. He now has five in three games, and Miami could win the Ligas Cup, which is a battle between MLS and Liga MX teams. Yes, sadly, Nacoxa the team I'm a minority owner of. They got balanced. They didn't even get out of the group stage.

That's why I was in Charlotte last weekend, seeing some of the other owners and watching NACA's alive for the first time. And, I mean, listen, this is a good tournament, and for Messi to be dominating it, like, of this magnitude, and taking a last place team, There's no comparison in NFL sports. Remember, Trevor Lawrence coming out of Clemson, number one pick, everybody loves him, best promising recruits since, best promising prospects since what, Andrew Luck,

and they were picking first again the next year, you know? There is the Brady going to Tampa, but Tampa was like a 500 team, and it took them half a season to click before Brady took over and they win the Super Bowl. There really isn't anything. In the NBA, I can't, it would be the equivalent of LeBron going. I mean, I know some people want to bring up LeBron and the Lakers, but he also had Anthony Davis. And in the NBA, 5-on-5, you're a superstar like LeBron, you know, it's a lot easier to win than an 11-on-11 game. And what Messi's doing is just spectacular, folks.

Just really soak it in and enjoy it. He is something to marvel at. All right, without further ado, let's get to our guest, Adam Chernoff of Right-angle Sports. All right, let's welcome into Straightfire, a guy who's been on the podcast a lot. He is one of the, gosh, can I say one of the five biggest names in sports gambling? I know he's not going to like that, but that's just the reality. He creates a massive audience wherever he goes. We bring him on the podcast.

I forget when I found him, but he's come on the pod and talked about his backstory, which is incredible. Adam Chernoff of, now, right angle sports. Okay, that's a reach. But I'm going to push it back to you. And if you're going to put me at that praise, then I got to ask you of non- athletes in U.S. sports media, do you have the best jumper? Come on.

Give me a break. See? See how it feels going the other way? I would like to think I do, but that's obviously not the case. Your Instagram feed would beg otherwise. Yes, I know. I like to think. I only post the highlights.

I'm not going to post all the misses and the bricks. But anyways, Adam turn off. So it's interesting. I think you guys remember Adam. He was doing a daily podcast that was like a setting the market. it quickly became one of these must listen to podcasts. And then, of course, everybody gets involved. I can admit, I talk to Fox.

I was like, we got to get at them. Fox made a run at you. We don't need to go there. But you have basically been fetid. I don't know if I could say that, but everybody wants to bring you into the fold. And you picked right angle sports, what was it like maybe six months ago, eight months ago? Yeah, back in late November of 2022, I made the move over. And so, first of all, talk about how that was.

because, you know, people are probably Googling right-angle sports. A lot of gamblers know them. They provide a pick service. But a lot of people, including myself, hesitant to pay for picks. I know it's a dicey topic among all these guys who talk about sports gambler. Doug Kazarian, who you know. Jeff Ma, who's been on the pot, he doesn't like me that much. A lot of guys, Preston Johnson's been on.

We've talked a lot about paying for picks. I don't want to start there, but I want to start with right angle. What made you think that would be a great fit? the way I described it was for the majority of my 15 years in the betting industry I was sort of like the teaching pro at a nice golf course that's a country club somewhere in a nice city and this was really my first opportunity to go try play on tour that was kind of how I phrased it because red angle sports is a team of professional betters they've been among the most successful betters behind the scenes privately since the late 1990s ed's build out an incredible team and now they've been running the service, which is the product where people subscribe to four picks. They've been doing that publicly now for 20 years. And so when it comes to opportunities, it was a chance to join the best team from the betting side. And I've done a lot of things within the industry. As successful as I've been betting, I've never done it at the highest levels.

And so that's why I chose them because it was an opportunity to see what that was like, learn from them, and be a part of that team. Now, again, a lot of people don't know the behind the scenes. It's probably a little inside baseball. But what makes right angle sports the best? Their expertise and their ability to make decisions. And the way I would sort of break it down is if you and I were to go and read a write-up or a sample of information about an NFL game, we would come up with different conclusions on like what we thought we were taking away from that information and how it would

maybe influenced to make a pick on a game. They do it at a level that even now being with them seven, eight months, I can't get my head around because, again, I'm blown away every day about how I can read something or follow tweets or hear a news report or coaches press conference and I'll be like, okay, I'm thinking this is going to be a game where we're looking at the over, it's going to be a dead over. And they'll take it away and they'll be like, no, it's a dead under for reason, X, Y, Z. And so the way that they've worked together as a team that they've assembled over this time is really, really unique.

And the experience that they have in processing and going through information and finding what's good, finding what's bad, allows them to be as successful as they are in any market that they tackle. And so the big, big, big difference that they have over everyone else is that experience that they've collectively put together in the team. It's honestly, I wish they shared it. They really shy away from doing that. because they feel like they give it away, but it's truly incredible to see how they watch sports and interpret what they're seeing as it happens.

So obviously this is not an ad for them. I haven't paid, but I will say this. Like, I think one of my text to you was NCA tournament was coming up, and I saw RAS was releasing a bunch of picks, and I'm like, I kind of want to see them to see if they jive with mine, but you have to pay.

So I texted at them, and I'm like, listen, I had a good tournament last year, and then the year Breyer wasn't good, and then two years ago was really good. And I guess I'm trying to get to, like, if someone's on the fence and they're, I don't know, $100 better, $500 better, maybe $1,000 bets on a Dolphins Patriots game or whatever. Does right angle sports make sense, or is this for only the whales, $10,000 on an Eagles Patriots opener? The subscriptions that we have now are more accessible than they have been in the past. Definitely with me coming on, I've been a big part of the content and sort of push into a different audience.

for them, which is kind of a necessary step that they've needed to take as a company with the evolution of the industry. So a couple of years ago, the answer to that question would have been, no, it's not for everybody, it's only for that high level better. That's really changed now to where more people than ever would benefit from the service. And the big thing to take away is, even if you've not paid for picks before or you're on the fence about it, like you said, there's there's something different with red angle sports in the sense that when you get the bet the lines are going to move market wide the influence from these guys winning for 20 plus years is respected by every sports book and so when we give out a bet the lines move the odds change

you're not going to be able to get that bet again and so that makes you a favorite to win every bet that you have and gives you equity in that bet that you're making which is unique to other services, right? Like it's obviously not automatic, but you know, let's say the line on, I think Falcons win total was when you guys gave out, right? Yep.

Yeah, okay. So it was eight at the time. It was eight and a half. We released one of the worst prices in the market so everyone could get better. Okay. And then what, the entire market moved from what, eight and a half, not to nine,

or did it go to eight and a half with heavy juice? It went to eight and a half with heavy juice. So we sent out eight and a half even money. It was eight and a half plus money. at every sports book, now it'll be anywhere from minus 130 to 140. On a game by game basis, the impact much bigger than futures markets. But either way, the market's going to react to every bet that you're getting from the service.

I guess I would ask, like, is the secret sauce idea? Like, okay, well, if you've got it, Adam, why doesn't right angle sports enter the super contest or the other one? I forget the name of it. I'm in those. I haven't won. I've been close to cashing twice. I'll enter it again.

But like, why wouldn't they just enter that and dominate the contest if they have this expertise of 20 plus years? And I will obviously admit you guys are releasing picks early in the week. The super contest lines usually come out, what, Thursday afternoon before the Thursday night came? Yeah, it comes out Wednesday. You'll get the odds for submission by Saturday. The super contest itself is very much a coin flip. It's five games a week.

It's thousands of people competing. It's requiring 70 plus percent to be ordered to win that contest. And so we do play them. Right angle sports has always been an entrant in that one, the gold circa. They play all the contests. But to sort of evaluate things in that confined context versus what you can do on a game-by-game basis, betting is going to extract more from that. the service is going to be more valuable to the players.

The contest is kind of a coin flip scenario where you're just hoping to get lucky and get on a run and have a chance to sustain that through the season. Realistically, you have one or two losing weeks in that contest with so many people playing, you're not going to cash into money. So it's a very different game that's tough to compare. So I remember one thing last season, I think before you joined them, you would give out picks on your pod and then you had the tech service. I mean, again, you're forward-thinking with a lot of this stuff. And then I think you started talking about people who would instantly go the opposite way of you.

Hey, I'm going to fade this guy. I'm going to fade at him. I don't care how much you. You know, a typical anonymous guy on the internet who wins like 80% of his bets and is a multimillionaire. But he's anonymous and he's on Twitter 24-7. I digress. Do you see that at all with the right angle releases? And, you know, we mentioned the Falcons.

What other ones can you mention that they've given out that have maybe moved? So I'll give you an example. Hall of Fame game coming up on Thursday. We gave out over 31 and a half. Right as we released the game, Sportsbooks Everywhere moved to 33 and a half. There is always a subset of people who will say, I don't care about the history,

I don't care about the experience. Nobody should be moving an NFL total preseason, regular season, anything. They shouldn't be moving at two points. That's too much. I'm going to bet back the other side. And that's true for anyone who has an impact on the market. We have a pretty strong belief that, first of all, if the line is moving and we're doing so, and you have time to react to that, there's ample opportunity if you don't think that the service is going to win for you by backing it, that you can go and bet it.

The difference is that when people bet it back, we beat the close on 90 plus percent of the releases that we send out. So we're better than the closing line. So even though there's all this opportunity for us to be wrong and the market to disagree and people to bet back against it, there's still that level of respect for the bet that was given out because it continuously beats the closing line. So people always do it. It's very difficult to time what the absolute peak is going to be. And quite frankly, if you're able to time that consistently and say this is as high as it's going to get, now it's going the other way, you're probably more skilled to be doing other things than trying to fade the release. You mentioned closing line value, and historically that's been effective in helping to win bets. But for some reason, Adam, and I don't have the numbers exactly in front of me, but last year, closing line value seemed to mean almost nothing.

I do wonder, is that one of two things where the league is just shifting so rapidly, or B, are the books getting just that sharp right now with setting lines? well what are we at now with the extra week we're at 278 games whatever it is in a regular season so I mean when we talk about it not mattering it was within 5% one way or the other it's a very small number of games relative to shifting it the other way so in terms of just speaking about last season that's just kind of how it fell with a handful of games but it still definitely matters point B if you're better out there watching this if you're being you're better out there watching this if you're beating the closing line more often than not, you're going to be a winner

long term if you can sustain that. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded

in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Cliverts show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger.

So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast.

Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of Tontons and Wampas on the ice planet hot or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two.

Listen to Stuff to Bole your mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode

where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now, so... Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history.

Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Yeah, all right. Now let's get to specific teams. I know you're a Jets fan. Obviously, I am a massive Jets fan, very excited. There we go. Not for Zach Wilson in the Hall of Fame game, but nevertheless. So, you know, the surface level value, the average guy who just sees it.

hey, seven and ten, last year with garbage quarterbacks, and now you add Aaron Rogers. Oh, my gosh, this is an 11-win team. But, and I think we've talked about this before, the trenches are massive, and the Jets' offensive line has a lot of questions. 37-year-old Dwayne Brown, Mackay Beckton's injury history,

you know, maybe a rookie starting center. Are we overlooking, you know, the trenches for the Jets offensively and saying, hey, like, Rogers maybe lost a step last season, and are we too high on them? by we, I mean, every Jets fan. I'm curious as a fellow Jets fan. On a scale of 1 to 10, where's the optimism meter going into this season for you?

I'd say 11. 11. Okay. Where does it compare to the Sanchez years? Oh, well, there were no expectations heading into his rookie year. It was like, oh, we got some excitement. But it was, you weren't expecting, like,

AFC championship game. So after that, first year, I was like Super Bowl. And they got to the AFC championship game. And it was like, after that, it was like, Okay, next year we'll break through and then it fell apart quickly. That's complete disaster. I'm with you. I'm not 11.

I'm similarly high. Boy, in terms of the offensive line, like, how many games do we get out of Beck then? I mean, he's touching nearly 400 pounds. Those knees, I mean, nobody can sustain that. So you're right about Brown. If it holds up, you have to be excited about the offensive pieces. But to me, my biggest concern is the play caller. I don't know what we're going to get from Hackett.

Do you have any confidence level with Hackett? Not really, but I think Aaron Rogers is ultimately going to be the OZ. I don't think he uprooted his life to come to New York and take cues from Hackett, right? I think it'll be like, hey, you just manage the offense out when it's the crunch time in the fourth quarter. It's my show. Would you agree? Like, it's going to be Rogers dictating everything? What I have a hard time sort of separating in my mind is when I look back to the years

in Green Bay where it was Hackett, Rogers, and LaFleur. LaFleur really was kind of like the guardrails to the whole thing. He was calling the plays. He was managing the offense. Hackett was just like the personnel guy that was on the side. And so where I'm kind of stuck here is I like the idea of Rogers with these young pieces now sort of elevating that offense. I think that that's inevitable and it's going to, it's going to improve, no question

about it. But when it comes down to like the really intense situational stuff, you take LaFleur out of the picture. We know Hackett's a disaster at doing that. Last year it was a mess. And his time with Jacksonville was just as bad. If that supports not there when things really matter against a really tough schedule in a very competitive AFC where you just can't give away games, like can Rogers control all of that on the field? Can Hackett and prove in that?

that to me is like the one spot where I just I don't know what to expect and I think is the big difference maker. Okay. So another team, we'll come back to the Jets opponent, the bills in a sec, but another team with a similar offensive question. Cowboys, I think won 11 games. Offense was on fire all season. Even with Cooper Rush, they were good. And then they get rid of Kellyn Moore and they go to Schottenheimer. And now by all accounts, McCarthy is saying, I want to run the ball and rest our deep.

defense, it almost sounds like an archaic offense is coming, but my buddy TA, who you've referenced on your podcast, he thinks he has a Cowboys in the Super Bowl. And I'm just wondering, like, you know, obviously the roster is great, but what's going on with the offense and can they go to a Super Bowl with this running attack? So I think the running attack benefits a lot from Pollard being the number one guy regardless. And so there's some separation that needs to be had from like this Cowboys annoyance of Zeke running into the line of scrimmage for a gain of three and derailing everything or backfield passes to him in the red zone that it's been frustrating as can be for the Cowboys.

So if that is the case, and we do see a lot of running, I think it's much better than it would have been in the last two years with Pollard taking over. So I think that's number one. Two, Moore's kind of being talked about in a bit of a higher standard and light now that he switched over to the charges and I think we thought about him with the with the cowboys he got very predictable especially late in the season the last couple years and he did a lot of the same things a lot of the routes had his receiver stopping and coming back to the football the one thing with the cowboys that we're hearing this year is a lot of continuous motion downfield with routes

and running and no more hitch patterns and going away from that sort of style of offense if that comes to fruition and you think about the pieces they have beyond C.D. Lamb, Dak becomes really, really interesting. And so, like you mentioned, T.A. is big on the Cowboys. Another pro better that I know loves everything with the Cowboys over. I still think the Eagles are the clear favorite within that division, but there's certainly some intrigue there by others for the Cowboys. Interesting. You know, I saw Dak led the league in Interceptions last year, and he missed like five games, which is a little stunning. Let me go to the bills for a sec because they're another team like maybe we're overre or I'm overreacting to that

Bengals loss. This is a team that was top three in the league for most of the season. I think they led in point differential for a lot of the season. That game against the Bengals with the Hamlin situation seemed to derail everything. And I don't know if it was you that talked about it, but the disruption late in the season kind of messed things up. We all shouldn't jump off the bills. They were utterly dominant.

I don't know though. The Jets got better in the division. I think the bill's safeties are both like a little aging. They lose their best tackler in the middle linebacker. Offensive line still has questions. I don't know. Josh Allen led the league in red zone picks. Where are you on the bills?

Did you see the Isaiah McKenzie stuff after the Bengals game when he did that? The bills have that like internal podcast that they did where he went on. Did you see those comments? No. So he obviously wide receiver for the bills last year. He went on this like five minute rant about how the bill. basically only had one pitch for their offense. And it was like everything was downfield.

When we needed to run the football, we couldn't. We had nothing underneath. And then there was the snow game against Cincinnati. It didn't work. And they're like, we didn't even try to do something different. And it kind of painted the bill's late season collapse in a very good way. Because really all it was when you look back at it, it was Josh Allen with an elbow injury, throwing it deep downfield nearly every single time, the same guys on the field.

there was no change up. And Ken Dorsey this offseason has made a clear effort to change that. They've added a couple tight ends. They took Kincaid in the draft, and he's like, we got to use more two tight end sets. We got to use more three tight end sets. We need to find some resemblance of a ground game. And it reminds me a lot of what the Chiefs did after their 2020 season, where they had to evolve into this heavier personnel-focused team.

And last year to the point that they led the league. usage of three tight-end sets, Kansas City did. And so the bills led the league in three wide receiver sets. They're now shifting. And so it's like a copy of Kansas City the last couple years. And if the bills can do it and implement it, I think it could be the best Bill's offense we've seen with Josh Allen this year if they get it right.

So it's a big year to prevent what happened last year happening again. Okay. So first of all, this is stunning. This is why I bring you on. Like, led the league in three tight-end sets. I honestly didn't know. Kansas City. It's crazy, isn't it?

Yeah, I didn't know teams. Like, I know the two tight-end sets you want to go heavy. What's the three tight-end sets? Is that like a brand-new thing? Yeah, so it wasn't a massive number of snaps in the season overall. They ran a ton from two tight-end sets as well. They were top three in that regard, too. But I think the difference here is we think about Kansas City and Mahomes,

and it's this aggressive, downfield passing, wide receivers all over the place. Really what it was when you look back, more than any other team in the league, they had those two or three tight-end sets collectively with both packages combined. And so what that does league-wide, when you look at quarterbacks throughout the entire NFL,

when they have two or three tight-end sets on the field, their success rate per play goes up, their yards per attempt goes up, and their completion percentage goes up. They have more time to throw. Their receivers have better matchups, usually. They have more options. It's a very tough thing

to defend. And so teams are really making that shift. Kansas City really did it first and now teams like Buffalo are playing catch up. Other teams around the league playing catch up too. And so that's kind of where the offensive formational shifts are going league wide. And there's a huge emphasis for Buffalo to do that. So I read a lot of NFL. I listen to some podcasts. I watch TV. I've never heard anyone mention this three tight end trend. Now, are there any other teams we should look out, look for doing this besides the bills and chiefs? in the AFC specifically

it's the rates are increasing sort of conference wide. I think a team like Minnesota could really, really benefit it from it in the NFC. You think about what they usually look like. Three wide receivers across the field. Kirk Cousins in the shotgun.

I mean, he's kind of a sitting duck in the pocket. A lot of snaps where he makes really bad decisions. And so I think that's a team that could really benefit from it. Same thing in that division. Detroit Lions, a lot of three-wide receiver usage a year ago with Jared Goff. Teams have now seen it.

If they can get towards that, Ben Johnson had a heck of a play caller. I think he could benefit from it quite a bit too. But keep an eye for it this season, especially in like the first half of the year, going to see a lot more teams going to those two and three tight end looks. Interesting. Do you think that leads to more unders or overs? Success and everything on offense, or is it more of a ball control attack with, you know, slowing things down big, big dudes on the field.

Well, so that's more to me to do with the defensive shifts. We just kind of talked about the offensive shift, but you bring up a good point with, does it lead to more unders? Well, last year we saw a massive increase in usage of cover two, so two deep safeties and that two deep shell, as well as cover four. And if you look over the last four years in the NFL, the usage of those formations is up nearly 20% and blitz rate is down 7%.

And so we're moving into this now sort of modern NFL in the 2020s here where defenses are playing extremely conservative because we're seeing offenses like we were talking about those three wide receiver sets that were so good four or five, six years ago, teams were just getting burned deep with the pass. Last year we saw an average total in NFL games

right around 44 and a half points. And so that's a reflection of how conservative defenses are playing, which in turn is kind of causing this offensive shift to where, okay, if all these defenses are playing off, it's cover two, cover four, five defensive backs on the field. Well, then you have like the bills get Dalton Kincaid. You put a defensive back on Kincaid. It's a matchup advantage for the bills. And think about what the chiefs have been doing with Kelsey and other guys at tight end. They're creating those matchup advantages. And so because of how defenses are playing and the personnel shifts there, it kind of goes hand in hand with the offense.

So does it lead to more unders on offense specifically? Not entirely. But when you combine it with the defense, we're seeing average totals of 44.5 points. We go back four years. It was nearly 50. And so the league is trending down in that regard in a big way. Wow, that's good stuff. Because if memory serves, Russell Wilson was rolling along and then all of a sudden the too high really slowed him down.

and he couldn't do the deep lobs to lock it and Metcalf. They took that away. And he didn't really have an off-speed pitch. Wow. I'm just trying to think with the three tight ends. Yeah. And do you think Russ and Peyton will be able to solve that with Russ? I think that offense is going to look so much better.

I always loved Peyton. Just from like the betting side, he was one of the few guys. I say growing up when I was doing this seven, eight, nine, ten years ago younger at him. Like you could trust him every week to do. what you would expect a wise play caller to do based on defensive advantages that they would have over the defense. So like, for example, if you thought that the Saints with Breeze and Peyton would have a really good advantage against an opposing secondary, you could bet on them willing to increase their

pass rate to attack that secondary and be very confident that Peyton would execute that. There's a lot of offensive coordinators and play callers in the league that you you can look at what the advantages might be when you're betting and have them do something completely else. It's hard to trust a lot of guys, but Peyton was a guy you could really trust. And I think he's going to get a ton out of Jerry Judy and turn him into kind of Michael Thomas number two like he did with the Saints now for the Broncos. I think Russ is going to get the ball out of his hand way quicker than he did a year ago. He was holding it for nearly three seconds of snap. And it's just going to be a much more efficient team. So definitely, I think,

Peyton and the Broncos can look a lot better on offense. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw,

unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Cliverts Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be.

Listen to The Cliverts Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or we're wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tontons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to Stuff to Bole Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

or wherever you get your podcasts. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English.

Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line.

We also have AIDS on the table right now, so... Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Switching to the NFC, I think it was you early last year who put me on the Giants. You were like, boy, the addition of Wink Martindale, the addition of Day Bowl. Like nobody got better in those departments in coaching.

And the Giants arrow was pointing up. I went and bet the Giants over. I hyped him on the herd. I looked like a genius. I've been, well, thanks to you. Mostly, I think it was you. You could correct me if I'm wrong. But I'm looking at the coaching moves this year,

and I don't know other than Steichen and Indy if anyone's going to have that sizable impact. Some people are trying to say Vic Fangio in Miami, but I don't know. What do you think? Any massive coaching swings this offseason? Okay. So I would have 100% said Fangio if the Ramsey injury hadn't occurred.

I think that slows down what he can do a lot, but that was looking like an all-time move. Do you think Stiking can make that big of a difference? Like is, I don't, I have trouble believing him and Richardson just works. Are you on board with that? Well, it sounds like he's taking some first team snaps already, which is weird. But it seems like he's going to have that Josh Allen early. I struggle on the dump-offs, the short stuff.

Sure. But if a play unravels, I'm getting loose and look out. And then I can hit you with the bombs. But I don't know if the receivers are great enough there to burn teams deep. But I don't, I feel like Stikin's very good off. Offensively? No. If he can have any sort of impact like he had on Hertz,

I think back to that Philly Tampa playoff game, I had a tweet about Hertz and just got roasted for it because people wanted Minchu over Hertz. And then he's, yeah, and then he's nearly the MVP last year. So that's what Stuyken can do. Is that how much of that was Stuyken improving year over year, but how much of that was the addition of A.J. Brown? I think it's a combination of both,

certainly but I guess we like I'm trying to think to Indian I'm like okay that can be a massive leap but like you said so you bring in AJ Brown you have the best offensive line in football you have a defensive line that just kills other team it was a good situation for the Eagles I don't know if that's the case in in Indy but so I'm kind of stuck on stikin one other thing I'll say on the coaching side to point out Brian Flores went to Minnesota and he's the defensive coordinator it won't necessarily be like a massive of improvement, but in terms of just being different, last year Ed Donatelle was the defensive coordinator for the Vikings, and he gave the same look, every snap, super soft, played off coverage, like everything we just talked about, the cover two, cover four looks. Brian Flores couldn't be more different. He's probably the most aggressive defensive coordinator. He wants blitz, heavy boxes, his guys in the secondary and man coverage.

I think the Vikings are going to have an awful defense. Yeah. But what it's going to lead to is just ridiculously high-scoring Minnesota Vikings games. Interesting. So that's important. I'm trying to think of the defensive backs of it. Like, there's nobody good there, right? Nobody.

Cam Dantzler. Is he still there? Like Andrew Booth? And all these guys are going to be stuck in man coverage. They have a rookie starting. They have a first year guy who played 50 snaps last year as the number two. Like, it's bad and dire if those guys are stuck in man coverage. So that's a big.

big scheme switch for sure. Is there a team that everybody seems to be sleeping on that maybe they're underestimating or you think the market's off, even if you haven't bet it yet? I want to say the Falcons because we did bet it and we're really high on them. I feel like in terms of sleeping on, we've kind of really been pumping the media with that. So I think a lot of people have latched on to the upside with Atlanta. But isn't it more, Adam, isn't it more scheduled than anything? It's not like they have talent.

I don't know if the play caller's great. offensive lines solid but not amazing defense is like eh okay it's just about to schedule with those guys right okay so we might have a case for sleeping on then uh because so we're on the opposite there no no i like i like them uh i'm with you but i don't i'm just doing because of the schedule in the opposing quarterbacks okay so speaking for myself personally i think arthur smith is a top 12 play caller in the nfl i'll put him in like the 10 to 13 range not for my opinion but from other major outlets that do really good like aggregate rankings for previews. The Falcons offensive line is a top 10 unit based on those rankings.

So that's really good. I think the skill pieces are quite underrated overall. And so that's maybe now hearing it. It's a little bit under the radar. Like you said, the schedule, the reason we like them so much is in the first 11 weeks, there's only four games where the Falcons don't play a first time starter or a rookie. And those quarterbacks is Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, they dodge all the great quarterbacks. So strength of schedule is almost always priced in and the wind totals reflect that.

But we think this is a schedule that can play way easier than it's being projected to be. And so with all those things said about the Falcons, which maybe is going unnoticed, we think that there may be a little bit under the radar. Okay. Well, the Saints play a similar schedule. Do we not like the Saints better? They have a car and established quarterback, although, you know, I know some of the numbers don't paint him great. And the head coach is, I think you bashed him on the Saints preview. But the Saints have a better roster than the Falcons. Skill position may be close.

I don't know unless Camara gets like six games or whatever. But why wouldn't the Saints be right there with the Falcons? So Price is the big thing. Saints are the favorite. We thought they're the worst division favorite in all of the NFL. A couple negatives that I would have for the Saints. car michael's the offensive coordinator and it's kind of weird because when peyton left car michael didn't want the offensive coordinator job they had to convince him to stay and keep the

job and so he stayed they didn't have a good offense everyone expected him to be fired but because he's this long-term guy with this massive tenure with the team he got another year and so in in the back of my mind, I have this thing where, okay, he didn't want the job to begin with. He wasn't good at it. He has very limited play-calling experience that he's never had success with. Now he's sort of the mastermind behind Derek Carr coming into the system with Michael Thomas coming off multiple years of injuries. Kamara is now suspended.

We don't know for how long he's going to miss. The offensive line is taking a big step back. And it's so uncertain within the Saints. they had to bring John Gruden in during the offseason to install the offense for Derek Carr. And so if you have, when I look at the play caller difference, I was just saying Arthur Smith is a top 12 guy.

What's Pete Carmichael? Bottom five? I don't think that's a stretch to say. So there's some negatives for the Saints that I see. Any teams in the AFC West can challenge the chiefs? No. No, nobody at all. That was the easiest one of the show.

No. AFC, North. somebody's got to be not great in that division. And it feels like everybody's probably going to finish 500 or better, sorry, nine or eight or better, or in the mix for a playoff spot. But who's the last place in that division? Boy, toughest question. We went from the easiest question to the toughest question.

On the spot, I have to say Pittsburgh, just because I think it's asking a lot. If I had to say a team that is being hyped up and sort of maybe overspoken for more than any other, it might be the Cleveland Browns. Like maybe Deshaun Watson just isn't going to come back to the Watson that we knew from his time in Houston. And that's just going to be a struggle with Stefansky. But I think that that's less likely the case than the Steelers offense with that play-calling scheme that they have is just magically going to work this year. They're already talking about directives coming from ownership down

to how they're supposed to run their offense and trying to stay conservative in the first three quarters so they have a chance to win in the fourth with their defense. That's just not what you want to hear in 2023 for any team. So I would have to say Pittsburgh. And Ravens, I'm curious because it seems like they're slowly, quietly pivoting from being a defensive team. I felt like I know Lamar's great,

but they've never put guys around him. They seem to invest a lot offensively. And then you look at the defensive depth chart and you're like, ooh, there's not a ton of talent here. Big shift for Baltimore coming going from the Roman offensive scheme to Todd Munkin. A lot more usage of space. All signs point to a lot more tempo. Lamar wants to throw for 6,000 yards.

Do you remember last year when he did the press conference? He had the bag of popcorn and the milkshake. You remember those photos? So, I mean, we're going from that a year ago to put it in perspective. Now his Instagram is like yours, where it's just constantly, in the gym working out. So I mean, it's such a different mindset and scheme for the Ravens this year. Zay Flowers is apparently the best wide receiver on that team. The rookie coming in, he was working with Lamar in South Florida all summer. You have OBJ around them. So it's the best

weapons. Lamar's never been more focused on throwing the football. That's going to look really, really different. But it's a really, really big change. Maybe it takes time. But there's certainly a lot of optimism about the Ravens offense. We'll wrap up with week one. Listen, I know it's still a ways away, but surely you've looked at some week one lines and you want to pounce. I got a buddy selling me on Jason, divisional dogs in week one.

It is always something you need to bet, especially home dogs in the division. You're looking at teams like, I think the culture at home against the Jags, Giants, I believe is cowboys, jets and the bills. Or is this just, I know that sounds like a trend and we're supposed to shy away from trends, but go for it. Sure.

I'll give you, I'll give you one because we're both Jets fans, have to bet the bills in week one. I know it's, I know it's painful, but there was a group that's competitive with us, and they bet the Jets right after Lions came out. It was about a month ago now because that was right around three and they bet it and now it's come down. It's kind of right around one right now, one and a half. And so they bet it.

And as soon as they bet it, I was like, there's no way that this isn't going back the other way. So you have to bet the bills at that number for sure. There's just so much coming in. Why do you think they took it? And is this like a bet that's a group that's respected? It is a group that's respected, definitely, which is why it moved down. And this wasn't even in relation to like the Rogers move.

This was longer after that. when you look back at what the bill's season was a year ago there's there's a number of negatives that you can take away from that that i really disagree with i think that their their offense like i said was sort of stuck in that scheme i think that's going to be different i think alan was limited for a good chunk of it with the elbow injury i think that's going to be different um i think now with mcdermick going back to calling plays on defense i think that's going to change and make the defense a lot more aggressive, which is something the bills desperately needed. They really, I think, like the upside of the Jets with Rogers coming in.

Because you can say similar things and say, the Jets were competitive with the bills twice last year and they had nobody on the field, right? And they were huge underdogs in those games. So like I get that. Now you had Rogers like surely it's going to be better. I just think this is a huge reset for both teams and the Jets are going to take time. I think the bills start off really, really well. Fun fact.

I think I saw the bills are 0 and 5 against the spread last year against the dolphins and the Jets. And they didn't even face two or three times. I mean, I know the Jets beat them once and they covered the other game. Miami covered in the playoff game. Miami beat them in Miami in what was a crazy game. And I forget the other one,

but I think the dolphins covered that as well. I don't think maybe that's they just, they just see Josh Allen Moore in the division and the coaches from familiarity. I don't know. Well, it's exactly that. So they saw them more. They knew what was coming, and the Bills didn't have an option to change up.

They had no different plan on offense. It was the same thing every week. So as the season progressed, it just got worse overall. So Bills is one. I'm sorry, I'm not taking that. I will not be back against the chance of week. Do you have one, two, that stands out? I like the Steelers a lot at home against Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy in week one.

I think it's, is it two and a half? Well, no, it's higher now with the news the Purdy is going to be starting. one went up a little bit. So if you like, you're getting more with the Steelers. Yeah. I mean, listen, I know it's trivial stuff, but TJ Watt, I think when he played, they were eight and two last year. He's just such a game changer. I know they have Trent Williams there, but I look at this Pittsburgh defense and San Francisco has struggled out of the gate. I think if you look at the, is it the last three years where they just haven't been super crispin? Last one, last year, week one was against the bears and I think a monsoon.

And it was a ugly game for sure. No, and I like, I like. The Steelers as a dog throughout the year because just that style that they're saying they're going to play and commit to, I think is conducive to liking them when they're getting points, especially more than a field goal. And oh, by the way, speaking of Steelers, someone and some guy, you know, listen, you got a lot of wacky guys hit you with stuff on social media. Someone's selling me that there is a Pittsburgh offensive analyst or someone who's doing more tweaking of the offense than everybody. You know, the offensive coordinator there the last couple years has been kind of boring and dull and predictable. and it sounds like there is a bit of a shift going on. I don't know if you're aware of any of this. Well, it wouldn't be hard to do anything

that's better than what Matt Canada has been doing. So it's certainly believable. The predictable runs into the line of scrimmage, three yards into cloud of dust with the running back. Nagee Harris. Yeah, they're very predictable. Listen, I have Steelers in the playoffs. I know that's crazy, but remember,

I had a stat, somebody gave it to Calhurt today. The last 33 seasons of the end of the end of the game, NFL. There have been three or more new playoff teams every year. And I know that, well, you know, history isn't automatically going to repeat itself, but this is the NFL. Like, nobody stays on top for long. We might see more new playoff teams, but I don't think the Steelers will be one of them. Don't think, okay. All right. Adam, turn off. Obviously, follow him on social media and, you know, he interacts with the audience. He's great. And, um, that disappointing in that Jetsbells game. But we don't want to start, Adam, you don't want to start 0 and 1 and then have to go to Dallas in week two.

No, definitely not. And especially Michael Parsons against whoever is at left tackle for the Jets. Like that could get ugly for Rogers. But Rogers does historically do well against Dallas. I don't know what that means. You know, now he's in a different city. But yeah, we'll see.

Oh, by the way, do you want Dalvin Cook with the Jets? Not really. I don't think we need to go more veteran guys around, especially at running back. Let's focus elsewhere. What if you heard Brees Hall was going on the pub and out for the first four games. Well, I'm surprised he hasn't already.

I don't think that that's a stretch to have happened, but I mean, give me any, just put anyone behind Roger. Michael Carter? Come on. Well, you think about Carter in the past game, why not? Give me, I just, I don't, I'm not a big, call me, whatever running back guys are being slandered as, but I just don't think you need one to be that effective

in the NFL in 2020. It's fair. Rogers did take a $35 million pay cut to free up money for something. Well, give me more receivers. More receive? Wow. All right. I could ask a million Jets questions from Denzel Mims, who nobody cares. What a brick of a pick that was. Anyways, Adam Turnerff, thanks a lot, buddy. Thanks very much. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.

Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English.

Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. It was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the Fourth. seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it.

Listen to The Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.