The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Straight Fire - The Super Bowl-Bound Bills? Cowboys Better than the Eagles? Dark Horse Contenders & More!

Episode Date: August 16, 2023

On today’s episode, Football Outsiders founder and analytics guru Aaron Schatz joins Jason to discuss the Buffalo Bills' chances to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, what makes the Cleveland Browns so dangerous, how a new play caller in Baltimore could impact former NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, why the analytics are so high on Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys, Kyler Murray’s uncertain future in Arizona and much more! Follow Jason on Twitter and Instagram. Click here to subscribe, rate and review all of the latest Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre podcasts! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast.

From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.

84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes,

follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. The volume is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up, Straight Fire, fam? It's me, Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire. For Wednesday, August 16th, We have jumped over the middle of the month of August. We are inching closer to the beginning of the NFL season.

I know college football fans are like, hey, Jay, come on, give us some coverage. We will, we will. Probably starting next week some college football. But today, our guest is incredible. Aaron Shats, you know him from the football outsiders. He came on this podcast last year, hyped up the Eagles. I got on board. A lot of you did as well.

And it was very profitable and fun. This season, he has some teams you're not going to like as much as the Eagles. I certainly do not. You guys are going to like Aaron Chats. It's a lengthy interview. A lot of fantasy football kernels, gambling, all the fun stuff that you guys come to this podcast for. Also, in a tiny update, I just need to say, oh my gosh, Lionel Messi, what he's doing for the MLS in this Ligas Cup, it's just unbelievable. We already know he's the go.

He won the World Cup, what, eight months ago? MVP of the World Cup, whatever they call it. And he joined the last place Miami team and instantly starts kicking butt and taking names. And now they are going to the League's Cup championship. Lionel Messi. I mean, we already knew he's amazing, but like you're running out of stuff to say about the guy. He's appointment viewing. I have like alerts on my phone.

And I don't do this for any other soccer other than my team, Nicaza. but like I don't do this for baseball. I don't do this for NBA. Like you just know when those are because they're on all the time. But this is on Apple TV. So I have an alarm in my phone. Hey, Messi's going to be playing. And you fire it up and it's like, boom, three minutes in, they score.

And then boom, another goal. And this one from Messi. And it's like, well, that's a wrap. I had a good buddy went with his son. His son is a big time academy player for an MLS team. I won't say which one. And let's just say he was not thrilled with what went down in Philadelphia. His vantage point showed a lot of points.

poor decisions by the union. I think they got shook from that opening goal. They give up a goal three minutes in. The goalie just looked like he, I don't really know how to explain that. Just a bad decision. Then he gives up the bomb from Messi from like 40 yards out. It's just like just a very wacky game, but messy appointment viewing. And the championship game is coming up.

I don't even know exactly what it is. But without further ado, let's get to our guest. Aaron Shatz, the founder of football outsiders. Jason likes to think he knows everything. when it comes to sports. I know what sports fans want. But for everything he doesn't, he knows a guy who does.

Let's just say, I know a guy, who knows a guy, who knows another guy. All right, let's welcome on to Straight Fire, a guy you know well. He is one of the deans of football numbers. He helps immensely with gambling, fantasy. Last year came on this podcast,

hyped the hell out of the Eagles. Hopefully you guys got paid. Aaron Shatz, founder of the football outsider. He now freelances for a lot of, lot of different places, a lot of bright things in his future. Aaron, how are you, man? Hey, I'm good. I'm real good. I'm ready for football. August is a good time to talk football. Yeah, I believe last August you came on. You said, look at the Eagle schedule. This team has greatness written all over it, and they end up in the Super Bowl, nearly won the damn thing.

I don't think you called Jalen Hertz, but then again, nobody on planet Earth had Jailen Hertz. I am curious, like looking back on last year, anything big picture jump out teams, falling, teams rising, just anything, any macro NFL issues before we jump into this season? I mean, not in particular. I think that what was most interesting about last year other than the Eagles rising was the Rams falling apart. And the injuries were a big part of the Rams falling apart. Denver also, by the way, injuries were a big part of their falling apart. But also, it sort of made people have to think twice about the, you know, go. all in for a Super Bowl idea because it worked for the Rams, but it's not necessarily going to work

for everyone. And they wrecked their bench so much that now they have no depth whatsoever. And now their number for this upcoming season is at 6.5. And you can't name any of their secondary or linebackers. Like, it's really interesting what happened to them. Yeah, they're going to have to win a bunch of shootouts. I don't think it's great this year. But maybe, And this just didn't play, Aaron. They start out, say, two and five. Stafford has to miss a game. And next thing, you know, yada, yada, yada, we're tanking for Caleb Williams.

And you just restart the process. So there is the chance of that. Now, you know, the converse is true. They go nine and seven, miss the playoffs. And, you know, Stafford's like, I think I'm done here. McVeigh wants to reset. So I don't know. That's a tough.

The tanking topic is a tough one. Although, if memory serves, didn't the Eagles throw a game at home against him, Washington? and it worked out in their favor hugely. I think they ended up with Jalen Waddle because of it? I don't remember exactly. No, no, not Waddle. It was the other guy. The other Alabama skinny receiver.

Devante Smith. Defante Smith, thank you. Yeah. They basically Doug Peterson and his last game with the Eagles put Nate Sudfeld in there and basically didn't care whether they won or not. Like, I don't know if he was throwing it as much as he just, they were like, it doesn't matter to us whether we win or lose. And it is a tough subject.

I think people feel. like analytics is always like tank tank tank tank but it's not necessarily always the best thing to do and also mike teneer points this out you can really only tank for one year in the NFL yeah because you're you're only going to get those guys on rookie contracts for four years five for your first rounders you don't want to waste two of those years tanking like don't don't do it for more than a year yeah for sure uh let's go to i think the most interesting team not just because i'm a fan of them I know everybody knows you, knows you're a Patriots guy. But the Jets add the biggest name quarterback that move teams, Aaron Rogers.

I'm bullish. I don't know that I'm extremely bullish. The offensive line, the biggest question, but early returns based on what you've seen, read, heard on the Jets. I know you famously say defense doesn't translate year to year. There's a lot of examples you have of that. So there is some concern there, but the offensive line seems like the primary issue.

Yeah, the offense for the, Jets, it should be better. I mean, there's no question about with Aaron Rogers, they should be better. And yeah, there's some offensive line questions, and we don't have them as a top offense. I find their defense much more interesting because it is a battle of very strong trends. So the Jets, on one hand, they have the trend where when you improve significantly from one year to the next, you usually fall back in the third year. That's called the Plexiglass principle. They also were really healthy last year, like really, really healthy on defense, and there's no way they're going to be that healthy again. But they were really good despite having a very low number of turnovers, and that is rare.

Normally defenses that are really good have a lot of turnovers, and the Jets didn't. And by the way, this is also true of the Washington Commander's defense. And that would seem to indicate that those defenses are going to be good again this year because teams with low numbers of turnovers tend to be better on defense the next year because the turnovers come. And therefore, we have the Jets, when you balance out these different trends, we have the Jets with the number two defensive projection. We're big believers in the Jets defense.

Wow. Can I, do you think I could guess the number one defense? Is it AFC? Yes. Buffalo Bills? It is the Buffalo Bills, yes. Huh. It's weird, because I don't like their.

I don't love their defenses. Aging on the back end? We don't know when Von Miller's going to join the team. A linebacker. A little bit aging. But they're getting guys back. They're getting Micah Hyde back. They're getting Tredavius White for a full year.

They added like Leonard Floyd. They added like, what's the name of the defensive tackle? Used to be in Seattle. Puna Ford. They added a lot of stuff. So you like the bills a lot. winning the AFC East Amosu. Yeah, the bills, I like the bills a lot.

In fact, we'll get to it, but the bills are actually my Super Bowl pick out of the AFC this year. It's just a killer. We're off to such a bad start. The Buffalo Bill Super Bowl? So, okay, let me outline this. Well, we'll start with a question. Why did Josh Allen throw so many red zone interceptions? I think he tied for the league leader and led the league.

My guess is that it's just random variation. I don't think he sees things wrong in the red zone or anything like that. I think it was just a year of random variation. You know, like, why did he fumble on the one yard line? Same thing, right? Against the Vikings, yeah, yeah. Against the Vikings, yeah. But that was just a one-off.

I mean, I think he had something like nine red zone turnovers. My guess is it's just random variation. He's not, like, he doesn't throw a ton of interceptions. And the fact that so many of them came in the red zone is probably just random change. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but in, encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle

growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast,

or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because. of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line.

We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your

Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Keer Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tript Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it.

And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely.

And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free, our heart radio app, Search, learn the hard way, and listen now.

Remember when Patrick Mahomes was lighting the league on fire, and then everyone went to the two, was it the two deep safeties, and Mahomes, like, had to settle for underneath stuff, and he wasn't really clicking, and he hit a rough patch? Are teams now in, like, what is this, year three of Josh Allen dominance, starting to see some things and tweak it, and maybe that led to the issues in the red zone?

Maybe. I mean, you know, teams know that he's really good, And we know that the wide receiver core is not the biggest strength of that team, right? Gabriel Davis had that one playoff game and we all thought he was going to blow up last year and it didn't happen. And now people feel like Gabriel Davis is sort of a below average number two. And the three might be Trent Sherfield and it might be Khalil Shakir, who's a talented guy, but we'll see what happens. And they're going to use a lot of Dalton Kincaid, but he's a rookie and we know rookie tight ends tend to struggle. But mostly, I mean, we have Buffalo's defense number one. So even if their offense isn't quite as good as it has been in years past, our numbers really like Buffalo.

I mean, there's a little bit of I just don't feel like picking Kansas City every year involved in that, right? Because we have them kind of neck and neck at the top of the AFC. But, I mean, I do feel like Josh Allen has proven himself good enough that one of these years he's going to get one. And this is the year he has the defense to do it. And they better do it this year because their caps. Like you said, there is a little bit of aging going on. And their cap situation is very bad for 2024. So this is the year Buffalo does need to do it.

So one of the things with Buffalo, let me ask this. Again, I don't have the data. But the Buffalo Bills last year faced garbage two Jets quarterbacks. Mack Jones, I guess twice, unless Bailey Zappy threw in one of them. And then two for one game, which they lost. And then the other one, I think, was the backup. Didn't they face? Skyler Thompson in the playoff game? So they had like seven games against quarterbacks in the division

who weren't good except for one game against Tua. And I mean, they lost that game as like 2119 wacky game. Oh yeah. It's going to be harder this year. The four hardest, the four hardest schedules in the NFL by our projections are the four AFC East teams. How does that work? Well, first of all, they have to play each other, right? And they're all average or better, right? The Patriots are average and everyone else is better than average. And then, And then if you look at their schedules, they play the NFC East, which has, of course, Dallas and Philadelphia, which are good teams. And they play against the AFC West, right, which is a good division with the Chargers and the Chiefs. And the, you know, the Broncos are not terrible and the Raiders are not terrible.

So, like, the Patriots have the hardest schedule in the league. And two, three, and four, I don't remember what order, but two, three and four are the other AFC East team. So you like to look at the schedules and you have this ability to find out which teams scheduled-based are going to be good. Is there a team or two that you think are willing to pop this year? We had a couple guys on the pod who have talked about the Falcons and their number is moved in Vegas. And the Saints, obviously same division playing weak opponent. Anyone else that jumps out at you as an inferior schedule? The Packers have an easy schedule, but nothing like the Falcons and the Saints.

The Falcons and the Saints have the easiest schedules in the league by our projections with a big gap between them and everyone else. And I don't know if the number has moved in Vegas, but last time I checked, Atlanta wasn't getting quite the respect that New Orleans is getting. And I think that Atlanta's defense can improve with the players they've added. And those teams can be neck and neck. So I really like the idea of going over eight and a half on Atlanta with the idea that Atlanta and New Orleans will be neck and neck. and don't be surprised if two NFC South teams make the playoffs over teams that are better than them, but have harder schedules. Do the Minnesota Vikings qualify there?

As a team that's better than them? You know, our numbers, if you remember from last year, our numbers hated the Vikings. I remember, yeah. Their year last year was the craziest, wackiest year ever. they ended up 27th in DVOA despite being 13 at 4. And then they went and lost talent in the offseason, right? No more Patrick Peterson, no more Zadarius Smith, no more Adam Thielen, no more Dalvin Cook. So we actually, I mean, do not expect them to be a good team this year.

I like them as an under. They're what, eight and a half in Vegas? I like them to go under that. I just think they're just not good. Our base numbers think they're just a bad team. sticking in the division, I like the Bears a lot, perhaps irrationally so. I'm going to be going to Vegas soon, and they're one of the teams I'm looking at the over. It's not just about the spending in the offseason.

I think that division took a major hit when Rogers leaves, obviously. But also, like you said, the Vikings, they weren't good last year. 13 and 4, you can say it all you want, but, like, they're not great. And then the Detroit Lions, Aaron, you know, I might be wrong, but weren't they one of the worst defenses in the league last year? We think the defense they'll improve a little bit on defense and be kind of average.

And the offense was good, but, you know, we had a guy on two weeks ago saying how they played like 65% of their snaps trailing. And yeah, your offense is going to look good when you're chucking and ducking because you're always down by two touchdowns.

Yeah, I mean, our numbers tend to adjust for that. I'm not high on Chicago, honestly. We have their defense as one of the worst in the league, although it's a little better now that they signed in Gacway. and Justin Fields, I don't think people understand what a bad passer he was in his first two years. And yes, there are a lot of reasons for that. Like, I absolutely understand all the reasons. Like, he was in a bad situation and a bad scheme and he had no receivers and a bad offensive line.

And all that is true. But he was really, really bad and takes a ton of sacks. And the fact is, he's going to have to improve dramatically. Like, he's going to improve. But he has to improve, like, by a lot, a lot, a lot for them to beat that seven and a half, unless their defense is much better than I think it is. Is, you know, are we giving Iber Flues or not giving him enough credit defensively? I really like what he had done in Indy, did a lot with a little.

And this is kind of, they've had a couple years now where they've got to churn out some of what didn't work and got the right guys in there. Does that stuff matter? You can't put a number on it, but does that stuff matter to you at all? That's the problem. Yeah. You can't put a number on it because Eberfluse has only had one job before this, right? And yeah, he did well in that job, but it's not like you have a sample size of Eberfluses' defensive coordinator in like eight different places like you have with Wade Phillips, where you can go, oh, well, when Eberflus comes along, you know, his defense has always turned around in year three or whatever. And the fact is the defense was very bad last year.

I think it may have been the worst defense in the league by our numbers. And then, you know, they've added some pieces, but it's still, the bear's defense does not look good. I mean, they dropped, didn't they trade Roquan? And then, I mean, they couldn't stop. They were giving up like 35 points every week after that or something insane. I do read a lot of your stuff. And one of the teams that is still a mystery to me is the Cleveland Browns. And a lot of people are just automatically writing them off because of last year with Watson.

Didn't look great. And for some reason, I think Vegas has them at nine and a half. And then you look at the schedule, the division's tough. And I'm like, what does Vegas see that we don't? Can you illuminate what the heck's going on with the Browns that maybe, you know, everyone else isn't seen? We see it. In fact, believe it or not, we actually have the Browns as our favorites in the AFC North, even though the Bengals are even though the Bengals come out as a better team. Browns ahead of the Bengals?

Because they have an easier schedule than the Bengals. Yeah. So on offense, it's really a question of sample size, right? Like, what do you believe? Three years of Kevin Stefansky running a good offense with bad quarterbacks and a whole career of Deshawn Watson being really good. Or six bad games last year. Like, sample size dictates that you have to believe in the last two or three years of these guys as telling you more about how good they are than that crappy last six games that they played last year. And then defensively, we like them to approve. They picked up guys like,

Shelby Harris and Dalvin Tomlinson and Juan Thornton, and they've added talent. And, you know, their defense should be better. So we have them, like, right on the cusp of the top 10 on both offense and defense. So they're going to be a good all-around team unless, like, Watson really is as bad as we saw last year. And I just, it's hard to believe that he's really that bad, given what he'd done in his career before. I feel like that the same thing was said about Russell Wilson, although, he's obviously a lot older than Watson.

But how long was Watson out? A year and a half? Yes. Is there any historic precedent for someone missing that much time under the age of like 31 years old or whatever? And coming back, right? No, there's very little precedent for anybody missing that much time and coming back at all. Oh. There's really like not a lot of quarterbacks.

Quarterbacks don't miss a year and a half or a year in two-thirds like when they're in their 20s. It just doesn't. There just isn't art historical similarities. Watson's really his own thing. You mentioned the defense. I'm just trying to think other than Garrett and I guess Ward, is it the scheme? Is it the defensive coordinator?

Because aren't they a little devoid of talent on the defensive side? No, no. Lots of little talents that they added. Zedarius Smith and Shelby Harris and Dalvin Tomlinson and Juan Thornton Hill and like Rodney McLeod. Like they added a lot of like little like, oh, here's a little bit of an improvement. And here's a little bit of improvement. And here's a little bit of an improvement.

But they added a lot of them, like in a lot of places. I mean, three fourths of the defensive line is going to be new. Hmm. So the secondary, what they get the guy from Chiefs, got a guy from the Eagles. So they're basically getting players from winning teams and hoping they can plug and play and raise the level. Hmm. I'll have to rethink it, Aaron, because I irrationally like the Steelers in that division. We like the Steelers too.

I mean, we have that whole division averaging nine wins or more. It's the hardest division in the league. Wow. So is it the Steelers, the offense or the defense that's the question mark? They both come out as kind of average. Even with T.J. What? Yeah. I mean, their defense comes out as a little bit above average and their offense comes out as like a little, any bit above average.

Yeah, even with T.J. Watt because, I mean, First of all, you don't know if he'll be healthy all year because he's had injury things. And they don't have like a ton of other like, you know, there's Fitzpatrick, but they don't have a ton of other guys where you're like, wow, that's a real needle mover. But they also don't have like a lot of holes. Like they just look like, you know, a reasonable defense. I mean, defense is harder to predict an offense. So I'm more likely wrong about this than I am.

Kenny Pickett will be average. Yeah. But also we think Kenny Pickett will be average. So Pittsburgh, you know, Pittsburgh has an average. schedule and it should be a slightly above average team. So we have them averaging 9.3 wins in our simulations. And that's last place. That's last place.

That's crazy. So that means the Ravens are above 9.3. So they're the trickiest team for me to handicap. You've got a college offensive coordinator coming to Lamar Jackson, who now has the most weapons he's ever had, or the best, I guess. But the defense has taken a massive step back. And it's almost as if they're taking a page out of the chief's play. Okay, we're just going to have to outscore people.

Defense doesn't matter in the NFL right now. Let's hope we can patch things up and just win with Lamar Jackson putting up video game numbers. Does that seem to be the game plan? And how do you feel about Munkin? I mean, I think their defense, you know, their defense needs a lot of people to step forward, like the young edge rushers. But offense, I mean, you know, all indications are it's not as much what do I think about Munkin as much as what did I think about Greg Roman, right? Because I think new offensive coordinator comes in, and your expectation has to be that he'll be average. But I think a lot of people who I trust, who are film study people, feel that Greg Roman had gotten very stale.

And therefore, just to improve to, we don't know how good a coordinator this is, is an improvement. And obviously, the wide receivers, there's an improvement. And they've got a good offensive line. So I think that their offense can be good and their defense can be average. And remember with the Baltimore, you always have to give them a little bit of credit because special teams is widely variable, but not for Baltimore. It's always good for Baltimore. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care where you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment,

and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes,

follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jette.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now.

They're finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests.

I'm talking. Trip Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth.

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and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free, IHartRadio app. Search, learn the hard way, and listen now. What do the, forget what I think? What do the numbers say in the NFC? Mostly because it feels top heavy. Eagles, Niners, and Dallas?

I don't totally understand who the third best team in the NFC is. And oh, by the way, yes, I just said Brock Purdy, who has a whopping eight starts under his or nine starts under his belt. And it was the seventh round pick is like the second best team in the NFC. Yeah, well, we have Dallas. Dallas actually is our number one team in win projections. NFC or the league? In the league.

We actually have Dallas a little bit ahead of Philadelphia. because Kansas City and Buffalo have harder schedules than the NFC teams do. Right? So that's how Dallas and San Francisco end up with the highest win projections. Dallas has been really good for two years. Like, yeah, the playoff losses have been bad, but the regular seasons have been good. And that's a much larger sample to learn from two regular seasons than two bad playoff losses. I mean, are there questions about Mike McCarthy taking over the play calling?

Yeah. I mean, there's nothing in the projection system for that. but we know those questions are there. But yeah, I mean, even if you think Philadelphia is better than Dallas, there's no question. The big three in the NFC is Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Dallas. All right, so let's go back to Dallas, because you said that they've been really good for two years.

But at the outset of the podcast, when we were talking about turnovers, like the Jets defense doesn't create turnovers, and they were awesome. Didn't the Cowboys create, like, among the most turnovers in the league the last two years? Yes. All of a sudden, what if that doesn't happen? Does Dan Quinn maybe not have as good of a defense?

Yeah, there's no question about it. Like, that is factored into our defensive projection, and we still really like the Dallas defense. But there's no question that, like, our defensive projection assumes they are going to drop in turnovers. But if they drop a lot in turnovers, that's a big problem. But they've played well overall. Like, when it comes to yardage and stopping third downs,

they've been good at those things, too. It hasn't just been takeaways for them. And again, this is just feel. But doesn't it feel like in the last two years, Dallas has really squashed the bad teams? And then when they step up in class, it's a big struggle and DAC somehow loses the game. Sure, but they don't step up in class until January. Well, that's the thing. So it's a schedule thing with Dallas.

Okay. Because in the playoffs, I think they lost last year to Brock Purdy two years ago to Jimmy Garoppolo, right? Yep. And Dak Prescott's a much higher paid quarterback, led the league in picks last year, Was that a random thing or was that like, listen, hey, this is who he is. He's just an average 11 to 18 quarterback in the league. I mean, you know, I think Dak Prescott is better than that. And again, the general gist of analytics is not to take away too much from one or two games.

Trust what you've seen over a larger amount of games, even if those one or two games are playoff games. And I, you know, I've talked about this a lot this offseason when I've been on various shows, having to do with the bills, but it also applies to the Cowboys, that history is filled with good teams that couldn't get over the hump in the playoffs until the year they did. Right? There's nothing that says Dak Prescott isn't like Peyton Manning. I'm not saying he's as good as Peyton Manning, but the same idea of struggling in the playoffs. And then, you know, one year he's just, one year he's just going to do it. Or Josh Allen might have, might be that guy. So like, I think the larger sample of how good Dallas has been. And Dallas was number one in our numbers in 2021. And they were number six last

year, number six last year. I think that those larger sample sizes tell you more about how good Dallas is. And then remember, they went out and added talent in the off season, right? They have Brandon Cooks now, so they're better at second wide receiver. They have Stefan Gilmore now, so they're better at second cornerback. Wow. Maybe I'm underestimating Dallas. Again, something you can't quantify, but when the head coach opens his mouth and says something like, hey, Kellyn Moore wanted to light up the scoreboard, we want to, we want to run the ball and rest our defense. Like, Eric, can you factor that in?

I think he's lying. I think he's lying. But I guess, Green Bay never did that. McCarthy's teams were never run first teams. Like, first of all, Dallas already ran a lot last year. So it's not like they're going to run that much more. And his Green Bay teams were past first teams.

And I think he's lying. I think it's just coach speed. So someone had looked at it and said that his teams played at a slower pace and then LaFleur is doing the same thing in Green Bay. And I just wonder, does slower pace, you're right, it doesn't have to mean running. But I don't know, tempo is what the best teams in the league do offensively, right? The Bengals, the Chiefs, the Bills, the Eagles, right?

It just seems antithetical to what is happening around the league. and I wonder, like, Brian Schottinheimer's a figurehead. You know he's just going to bully him and say whatever he wants. I don't know. Are we going to see a heavy deuce Vaughn and Tony Pollard run game from the Cowboys this year? I mean, I agree with you about the pace. I think being a slow pace is not good. And they'll run a lot because they're going to be ahead a lot.

That's the thing. I think they're going to be ahead in game, so there will be plenty of runs. Look, you want to ask me, do I trust Mike McCarthy when playoff time comes? I mean, Dallas may be the number one team in our win projections. They're not my Super Bowl pick in the NFC. Okay. Because I don't quite trust Mike McCarthy. But overall, this is a team that has been really good in the regular season for two years,

and there's no reason to believe they won't be really good in the regular season again. That's fair. So your Super Bowl final four, who do you have in the conference championship games? I mean, I would think Dallas and San Francisco and Buffalo. in Kansas City. Okay, well, everybody's going to say, why not the Eagles? They lose two coordinators. The defense returns largely intact, some change at linebacker.

I'm trying to think of their offense. Yeah, they've got a step. Because you can't get back there every year. It's not like there's anything wrong with the Eagles. I have the Eagles as the third best team in the NFC. But if you're only allowing me two teams to get to the conference championships, I'm going to say San Francisco in Dallas. And some of that, you admit,

is like, hey, we can't pick Kansas City every year. You know, it's boring to pick the same teams, right? There's a little bit of why I have Buffalo winning the Super Bowl. There's a little bit of an element of that because Buffalo is our number one predicted defense, but Kansas City is our number one predicted offense. We do know that offense is easier to predict the defense. And Patrick Holmes is amazing. And, you know, you're probably going to be reasonably accurate compared to other possibilities

if you just pick Kansas City every year until Patrick Mahomes retires, but that gets dull. Okay. And we'll do some rapid fire stuff here to end it. Do the Chargers make the playoffs? And if not, who's their next head coach? We have them narrowly missing the playoffs. But they're definitely in the mix. It's just the AFC is super hard, man.

Does Sean Payton fix Russell Wilson? He's going to be better than last year, but he's not going to be Russell Wilson the way we remember him. No, it can't be much worse. worst team in the NFL, Tampa Bay or the Raiders? Tampa Bay. Interesting. Arizona Cardinals.

Does Kyler Marie start over under like four games? Oh, who the heck knows? If I knew that, I'd be an insider, not an outsider. My guess is that he does because they kind of need to figure out, do they draft a quarterback high and trade Kyler Murray, or do they keep Kyler Murray as their quarterback and use those draft picks on other positions? Right? They're going to have, unless something really weird happens, two very high draft picks, because Houston is not going to be good. And they have to figure out what are they doing with them. And I think they need to know what Kyler is. So my guess is Kyler comes back

and plays seven or eight games. Oh, wait a second. You said keep Kyler and spend those picks elsewhere? that's weird because I thought if they could trade down if they could trade down if they decide Kyler is is if they decide Kyler has enough in him that he still could develop into a top six top seven quarterback then maybe you trade down with one of them use the other one on Marvin Harrison if you don't think that Kyler can do that use one of them on a quarterback and the other one on Marvin Harrison and you trade Kyle so I mean so Kyler got paid so well he had career playoff wins. He's small. He has the, coming off a major injury. Like, it's easy for me to sit here and say, you've got to get off of him. But what's the market for Kyler Murray? Like, who's

trading for him? Somebody will. Somebody will, even though he's being paid so much, because he is a starting quarterback in this league. And he is an above average starting quarterback in this league, even if that means he's 14th. 14th is still above average. But I just don't know how much more than average. How much more than that he's above average. And it's hard to know with the injury. But don't, I wouldn't get carried away with him playing badly last year and half a season. The fact is he's got, you know, good career numbers before that. So he's done it. Yeah, he hasn't won in the playoffs, but he's done it. Like a Tennessee Titans move on from Tana Hill. They say, we're not bad enough to be drafting top five. We could take Kyler. Let's take them. Didn't they pick up

Hopkins? They have DeAndre Hopkins, yes. So yeah, maybe at the end of the seat. I'm just spitballing here. But yeah, I would move. I like Kyler a lot. And then Aaron, you hear stuff about the lack of doing the homework and studying film and then getting the claws removed and not being loved in the locker room. Washington, not like we want to give Washington all the guys who aren't loved in the locker room. but if Washington's defense is as good as I think they can be, they are not going to have a quarterback top pick, and they'll need a quarterback badly. So there's your Kyler-Murie trade destination, Washington commanders.

I like that. That's kind of spicy. Wait, why do you think their defense is going to be great? Same thing as the Jets. They were very good last year, despite not having a lot of takeaways. In fact, they had fewer turnovers per drive than the Jets did. So it's likely that their defense will be very good again this year. Hmm

And in the division They faced Jalen Hertz Well they might have faced Minchu once Right I mean I'm thinking with my numbers That adjust for adjust for you know

Which quarterbacks you face But they you know They did good against good quarterbacks They did good against good quarterbacks Last year Their offense was Yeah Well I mean

What are your projections Say for Sam Howell I mean you can't project A fifth round Player with no track record To be any good You just can't.

He's a fifth round player with no track record. You have to project him to be bad. So we're projecting him to be bad. Huh. All right. I guess we'll wrap up. Last question. We didn't talk about the Bengals a lot.

They're my Super Bowl pick from the AFC this year. But you don't, maybe something in the numbers says not great news for the Bengals. We have their defense declining in part because of talent that they lost in this offseason, in particular the safeties. But they're not a bad pick. I mean, there are number two projected offense. And remember what I said about offense being easier to project the defense?

Like, we know their offense is going to kick ass. So if I'm wrong about their defense, then they'll be better than we think they'll be. And they make total sense as a Super Bowl pick. Like, that's not a bad pick. It's just, it's a tough division, man. Yeah, that's the only problem getting to the Super Bowl in that division. All right, Aaron Chats, obviously follow him on social media. He's, you want to mention all the places you're working for and what you got going

Yeah. Still trying to figure out the permanent home for this upcoming season, but I will be announcing that shortly. So you want to go to FtnFantasy.com to get the Albinac. That's where you can buy the PDF of the Almanac. Look for Patrick Mahomes on the cover. If you want the physical book, you can get that at Amazon. 3499 for the PDF, $3999 for the physical book. Then you want to follow me on both Twitter and threads, A-Shots NFL. So that's A-S-S-E-S. C-H-A-T-Z NFL. And sometime in the next couple of days, I will figure out my plans for this upcoming season.

I will announce them. I will be somewhere. It's hard for people who know I've left football outsiders, which I founded 20 years ago, which is tough to do, but I will be somewhere, and DV-O-A will be somewhere. And you can follow me on Twitter,

and I will announce where. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite, unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at a Podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me.

84 is big to me I'm Sam Jay And I'm Alex English Each episode We pick a year unpack what went down And try to make sense Of how we survived it

With our friends Fellow comedians And favorite authors Like Mark Lamont Hill On the 80s It was a wild year I don't think There's a more important

year for black people Listen to look back at it On the IHeart Radio app Apple Podcasts Or wherever you get your podcasts A win A win is a win

A win I don't care what you're saying Yep, that's me, Cliford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it.

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