The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - AFC Team Betting Updates

Episode Date: May 13, 2022

Picking up from last episode, Action Network betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter review all that's happened since the NFL Draft and break it all down, team by team. In this episode they go through every division in the AFC, discussing which teams are rising and which are falling... and most importantly who has betting value right away. Are the Miami Dolphins worth a shot? Why would anybody bank on the Cleveland Browns? And are the Las Vegas Raiders the best value in the conference to win their division? #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

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Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes,

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Next step to 53342 in Arizona. 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia. 1-888-789-777. or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut, 1,800-2707-1-1-7 for confidential help in Michigan, 1-877-7-70-S-TOP in Louisiana. Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-8009-9-9-7-89, or visit 1-800-Gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. joined as always by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better. Simon Hunter. Hey, Chad. Talking more football. Another great day. Yeah, it's fun, right? Like, it feels so different to talk about football than everything else.

Yeah, it's just the most fun. I mean, we do love the other sports, everything like that. But football right now, it's so far above King and this everything. Like, you see how they're doing their release now of their schedule? they're doing a, I believe, ESPN or someone gets to do it the ninth and then NBC gets to do it the 10th. And then whoever, CBS does do the 11th.

And then they do the whole schedule of 12th. They're literally taking a whole week in May to release their schedule. It's like they've really become all about me and I love it because I'm all about it. They're so good at milking every single second of the drama. They just don't know how to do it.

Speaking of drama, on Tuesday, we ran through, the NFC division by division futures that we liked based on the draft. Today we're going to do the AFC. As we did last week on Tuesday, we're going to start with the Eastern Division in this conference. That would be the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills, heavy, heavy favorites at minus 180. The paths are next at plus 400. Side bet, week 12 is when we start. hearing the calls for Bailey Zappy, likely from Colin Wilson, Action Network College Football Analyst to be the new starting quarterback for the Patriots. Dolphins are plus 400.

The Jets who have the greatest draft in NFL history, if you ask, anybody in New York, plus 2,000. So look, Matt Mitchell, I want to bring you in for a second. The bills are at minus 180. The bills are plus 650 to win the Super Bowl. They have the shortest odds of anybody in the to win the Super Bowl. Like, people have become so all in on the bills. If you ask anybody, Josh Allen is rated as the best quarterback in the NFL. Are we peak bills right now? Does it make you nervous?

How are you feeling about all this? Does it make me nervous? Yeah, it makes you want to puke my guts out, Chad. The Buffalo Bills who have never won a Super Bowl and haven't made a Super Bowl since the 1999 season are ridiculous favorites to win the Super Bowl. at under 7 to 1. I don't care for that at all. Am I bullish on the team? Yeah, I think just as good as they were last year. So, you know, the whole thing comes down to can they win a really hard playoff game against a team that will likely be an even matchup? And I don't know.

I hope so. But they seem to have been compiling a gopher broke roster. And that's really exciting. We lost Brian Daibel to the Giants. I've had plenty of anger with him over the years about the way he calls a game. I don't think that's necessarily a downgrade. But I'm as anxious about this season as I've ever been because I'm crushed by the weight of expectation, which I've had the luxury of not having until recently for 20 years. So I'm kind of dreading the season and excited about it just the same. I wish we could just skip January. The bills drafted in the first round a cornerback from Florida,

Kaira, Alam. You know, they need a corner, right? Like you don't know if Trudevius White, how he's going to return. and if there are any holes in that defense, it was in the defensive secondary. James Cook running back from Georgia, one of the top picks in the second round, early second round pick.

And then they did more defense in the third round with a land bagger from Baylor. I don't know, Simon. It feels like they just sort of filled the holes they needed to fill to get more depth, but it's really going to come down to Josh Allen. It's really all the matters. Between the Kelsey brothers, the Wob brothers,

the Bosa brothers. I'm all about taking siblings. And so the fact that they took Cook, I mean, we've seen what his brother did for Minnesota. If he pops for them with the bills, I mean, again, he's a second round running back. That's all that equity. I love that move by them. And the cornerback in the first round, that's the play for the bills. They literally gave up a first down to kick a field goal with seven seconds.

In seven seconds, some, Mahon was able to put his team in position to kick a field goal. I had no doubt they're going to try to go cornerback because that's, there is no weakness on offense. It's like we talked about it last year. You're asking me what quarterback I would take over everyone else. It's Josh Allen just because of simple fact, this is every quarterback is a different prime. This is Josh Allen's prime. He's bigger than everyone. He's stronger than everyone. He's faster than everyone. He can throw with incredible accuracy. He's literally what Cam, we all thought Cam Newton was going too big, this really big, strong, incredible arm. We saw how quickly Cam broke down. So for Josh Allen, these are the big years right now. That's what like hurt so bad for.

Bill's fans last year. They felt like they wasted a year because that was the best team of football last year. No doubt the Bills was the best team of football. So I love them, obviously, in this division. The Patriots just quickly touch on them. Don't really love what they've done this offseason. I think they wait, wait, wait. Do you think that their first round draft pick was, wait for it, strange? Wow, you're just waiting for that with a point of words. Cole Strange and offensive guard from Chattanooga, who was ranked third at his position, graded out at a 77,

and in an overall rank of player at 77. The best reaction might have been what what Sean McVeigh had when he was doing a press conference when he heard. He's like, I can't believe we watched film on him thinking he'd be available at 104. Yeah. No.

And again, I hate shooting on Belichick, but he does these little questionable picks like this. And I'm sure back in the day these things would work, but they haven't in the last, I don't know, five, six, seven years. So, yeah, I don't, I don't love what the Patriots have done this off season. They spent all that money last year. They've been very quiet this year. And Bill just hasn't drafted well. He just simply has not through the years. So I'm down on them.

I look at Miami is probably the best value in this division. They got the new coach who, yeah, I might think he sounds like an idiot and that he smokes way too much weed. But apparently he's just a really chill laid back dude. And Miami is excited about him. They love this move where Tyree Kill, that's a big deal. Like this guy's going to open up this offense for Waddle. And, you know, if Tua, he's getting the hurts treatment.

And if Tua was going to be their guy, this is kind of it. Like, I don't know how true that whole thing is about Tom Brady and him becoming a partial owner or doing whatever it was with Miami. Guess what? Tom Brady redid his deal. He's out of Tampa after this year. So they honestly don't think they really care about this year, Miami. Like they'll be so happy if Tua can be good and ticking the playoffs.

But the way I look at it, if that stuff about Brady, getting partial ownership of Miami's true, he's going to Miami. next year. So I don't know. They're a weird team to me this year. It just makes me, again, it makes me like the Bills even more and the Jets, I'll be quick on them. I'm happy for you, Jets fans. Enjoy that night. That was great. It's, that's why the drafts so stupid. It's like the Raiders, they give up Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper. They had three first round picks. Kiss it all three first round picks they just had, did. None of them signed a fifth-year option. They literally just had four years of that guys, and they're letting them go.

So three first-round picks, none of them signed for that fifth-year option. If that happens with these Jets fans, honestly, I got help these guys. But I think it's a hit no matter what on sauce. Top four picked on Emmysworth, that these unbelievable is a cornerback. We'll see about the wire receiver. We'll see about the D.N. But, yeah, the Jets are exciting, but 20 to 1, I still wouldn't touch them. I just think they're light years away from the bills and even the Patriots in Miami.

me. Yeah, Zach Wilson could take the year two leap. I could be dead wrong, but I just look at this team as being another year or two away just because I just don't think they have enough pieces there yet. You're going too fast. Can we go back to the dolphins for a second? Because obviously in this division, in terms of player movement, doing what they did in the off season, the most interesting team.

But it is exactly what we talked about on two. Tuesday with AJ Brown, going to the Eagles, getting Jalen hurts some weapons. Now Tua has the weapons. And he's got Mike McDaniels. Like, again, I make one of the guy. He's a, he is supposedly a mastermind on offensive stuff as a head coach. That's a big deal. This is a really interesting team. They did not have a lot of draft picks. So they only had like four picks. So what you see is what you get on this team right now. Like, if you like what they're doing on defense, that's what it's going to be. If you think they're going to be better on offense

because of the offensive weapons they now have, then at plus 400, this might be the team other than the bills, although the truth is you probably want to take bills in the box in some kind of big parlay. It's just, we just don't, again, we love the upside of two. We just neither chat or I trust to it. And all the pros I talk to,

So they like the value on Miami too because again, Mike McDaniels is an exciting head coach and they just got Tyreek Hill. Like that's a really exciting offense with arguably the best secondary in all football and defense. So I love that value of Miami, but it's the same thing as the Eagles and Hertz. It's like we don't know about this quarterback and I don't know how much money I want to get down on this to a kid where I've seen him have little flash moments. I've also seen him have some of the most dumb bowheaded plays ever last year. So it's really hard to know it to a. at this time next year, do you think that the team with the second best value in the AFCs, let's project based on current rosters and future talent and development outside the bills, Patriots, dolphins, Jets, at this time next year, who has the second shortest odds?

Again, if Tom Brady goes to the dolphins, I think it would be, the bills would be minus. 110, 120 for that division and Tom Brady be maybe plus 130 plus 140. Like again, Matt Mitchell, he would hate to admit it. That would literally keep him up on it. That would give Bill's fans PTSD. If this man was just back in their division on a different team, I can't even imagine how awful that would be. So, yeah, sitting here as teams are right now and Tua does not work out,

it's got to be the Patriots being the next team next year. But as you sit here right now, I just all the stuff I hear about, this Tom Brady stuff. It sounds like that was a done deal, him going to Miami, Sean Payton going there, but like Flores, I'm sorry, when he came out that suit against Miami, I think it kind of left a little bit of a stain there. So Tom Brady going to give involved it. So again, it's, I know we should be talked about 2024, but it's, or 2023 season. It's just these rumors, there's a lot, a lot of smoke. And like Chad always says, if there's smoke, there's fire. Also, it's hard to talk about it, 2022,

2023 season, when the bills are so much better, right? It's a little bit like talking about the NFC South. I don't know if they are, though. It comes down to the quarterback. It's like,

are they that much better than Miami? I don't know. It comes down to the quarterback because it's like, we've seen it time and time again. These teams, it's just different. It comes to a playoff time.

If you don't have a quarterback, if you have a Tana Hill, he's probably not going to live up to the moment where you have a guy like, you know, you saw, last year. It's like there's, there's just certain quarterbacks that step up in the playoffs.

Right. But dude, Josh Allen is so far and a way better than Mac Jones, then Tua, than Zach Wilson, in the same way that Tom Brady is so far and a way better than James or Marcus Marriota

or Sam Darnold. Or that Aaron Rogers is so much better than Kirk Cussons or Justin Fields or Jared golf like that's where you're going to see the biggest discrepancies like in the you know it's really interesting let's go to the nfc the aFC north for a second we had talked on tuesday about um how much we love the raven's draft we being i and then you hated it and felt like they get credit and i didn't hate it i thought they had a good draft but it's just no matter what they do every year everyone's

like oh my god the ravens and matt mitchell's like they drafted a center and everyone thinks they're geniuses, whereas anyone else does it, it's like whatever you drop to the center. Yeah. The Bengals, like, are plus 220 on Fanduel. The Ravens are plus 200 right now on Fanduel. So those odds have flipped. Yep. And we talked about that's why we were fine on the Ravens.

I still think this division, in my opinion, goes Ravens won, Bengals two, Browns and then the Steelers, like, who the hell is putting money on the Browns? Like, I just, again, I love the upside of the team, but it's, I don't know, man, this whole Watson Baker thing, like, is this guy going to get suspended for a year? We just saw an MLB pitcher. I don't want to talk about the whole situation. Basically, a guy got suspended for two years for something he didn't get charged for. NFL, they can't be just, you know, doing nothing about this whole Watson situation. So I don't get the Browns being the favor of this division right now.

Obviously, I like the Browns. I think they have a great team. Watson, we all know he's, we talked about it. He's probably top five quarterback when he's full go and playing like we know he can play. So I don't know, best value. I'm going to still go with the Ravens just because I like, I like teams coming back from injury-ridden seasons. I love that Lamar is still kind of being doubted a little bit.

So it's another proved me a year for Lamar. And we just talked about there, they're, I don't know, they're just one of these teams every year. They're always kind of been it. Like I might make fun of them. because they get knocked down in the first round, usually in the playoffs. But usually they get there by winning their division. So they're a good value, but they're not as good as it was.

That's why I wouldn't say take the Ravens. I honestly think you've kind of missed the boat on the value in this division at this point. So to me, I'd wait because, again, I'm not going to tell anyone to Dick Pittsburgh here. I just, I can't do it. As much as we like Mitch, I don't know if it's going to be Mitch or Kenny starting for the Pittsburgh Steelers. So I'll just avoid it. I'll hold my Ravens ticket. Maybe I'll bet it closer to the season.

I'm in a very Baltimore frame of mind. The creators of the Wire did have a new show on HBO called We Own This City, and it's all about policing in Baltimore. And of course, I started watching it during COVID when I had COVID. And it's great. The accents are great. it sounds you know Baltimore's got a little bit of a Philly accent because it's all sort of that Delaware you know kind of feeling but but it just it's so good

I don't know what I'm talking about I'm just thinking about it every time you say Baltimore that's what I'm thinking about the Kenny Pickett thing the Mike Tomlin thing not a team that you're going to bet on at this point they're not exercising the option on Devin Bush. We don't know how their defense is going to do. We don't know a lot about that offense right now. It's hard to take a flyer on the Steelers at this point. Yeah, the defense is going to be incredible,

but yeah, we just don't know we're getting the QB position. So if you're just looking for a blind value bet, I don't hate it on Pittsburgh because, again, they're probably the best defense in this division, but the Bengals are so good. Like, that's just a very complete team. And they've been smart this whole offseason, add into their offensive line.

trying to address that cornerback position, but we just, the odds of them not having a Super Bowl hangover is just insane. Like they're, they fit every criteria of a team that's going to have a down year. They won a division, which means they have a harder schedule. They're all under the age of 26, 27, like they're superstars. Historically, the following year, they all have letdown years because it's just different. It's a lot harder when you've reached that mountain top to follow up a thought on you. That's just, again, I'm not a Bengals hater. I think they're a great team. and we mean, Chad both really like Joe Burrow. It's just the rhythm of the NFL.

That's what a lot of this future stuff's betting on. Historically, after making it to Super Bowl and losing that team does not do well the following season, especially ones that win their division. The freaking Bengals made it to the Super Bowl. And they were within minutes of winning it and probably should have won it. Yeah, them and the 49ers, like the 49ers, again, had the ball with a 10-minute lead against that Rams team. I had the ball with a 10 point lead with 10 minutes to go in the fourth quarter. The Rams won that game.

Rams were down, I believe, might have been like 12. It was a weird number because they had missed that extra point, whatever it was. And it was like midway through the third quarter, remember that the Bengals just had that big touchdown. The three and out happened for the Rams. The Bengals got the ball back. And then Joe Burrow had that whole thing with his knee and it was just never the same. So it really is. We talk all the time.

that's how crazy is this football game. It's like one or two plays aside the entire game. It's stunning. It's totally stunning. AFC South. Indianapolis Colts minus 105. Tennessee Titans plus 145. Jaguas plus 700.

Texans plus 2,600. Obviously the big news here. Matt Ryan, now the Colts quarterback. A.J. Brown, not on the Titans. Malik Willis, drafted by the Titans, will not get mentored by Ryan Tannehill. Also, Malik Willis and all the other quarterbacks, Desmond Ritter, fading, dropping deep, deep, deep into the draft. That was a great narrative, the night of the draft.

Not just because, hey, none were taken in the top ten, as I said. but it just seemed like every single GM put their thinking cap on and said, I'm not overreaching just because they're playing quarterback. Yeah. And again, shout to Matt Freeman who gave us that amazing stat about if no quarterback goes in the top five historically in NFL's history, if no quarterback goes top five, the under of two and a half quarterback has hit every time. So something to keep in mind in the future.

If people are mocking quarterbacks outside of top five, it's a pretty good bet to bet the under quarterback. quarterback. That's something I don't remember because that hurt me. That definitely hurt me. And we think we talked about next year, it's just a really good quarterback class. I do think that's the biggest difference. I saw some books open at six and a half over under first round quarterbacks. Obviously, the out there got pounded and it dropped all the way down to five and a half and they just took the number down. But, you know, it's like you just said, teams called the bluff. They're just like, go ahead, take this guy. Like we're finally either

waiting next year or we think there's enough good quarterbacks in the free agent. group like again go look at the seahawks cubby room and go look at the alina falcons cubby room and tell me these teams aren't tanking like they're tanking it there is no excuse for them not to go out there to get jimmy jr get baker but clearly they made a stance where they don't want to do it so look at this division chad i i like jacksville coming into it and i just thought they had the most room to grow i think they've gone now from 14 to 1 or 12 to 1 now they're down to 7 to 1 for this division so the values going there. Now the value shifted to the Texans. It's like, it's gross. Go back and watch the film on Davis Mills. Davis Mills comes out this year. He's the number one player taken overall.

You really think so? 100%. You kidding me? Are you kidding me? I would say they could see what he did last year in the NFL 100%. Yes, he would easily be the number one pick overall just because his upside. Again, on tape, if you put it on there, this kid makes really, really, really. high-level throws when he had guys all around his legs. So I just look at the Texans as it's another thing where it's like, should they be 16 to 1? Should they be 15 to 1 for this division? Yeah, that's a fair number.

They're sitting at 25 to 1, 26 to 1 for this division. It's like people are kind of figure out what we're doing here. We're betting teams that aren't talked about. They're considered a joke. Like that's what the Texans kind of are considered right now. So am I telling you to go bet a lot of money on the Texas? to win this division, no, but like, if you had a couple of 10 bucks, you know, 20 bucks laying around, you just want to throw it on a good long shot to win a division. I don't hate that

that Texans. They're just a very solid team off the route. We saw last year, man, did I sweat that under a bed of them? Like, they literally got the four wins and I was sweating that one. So they're just one of these teams. I think they're going to be better than people think. I do see Tennessee taking a step back. And the Colts with Matt Ryan, I do like the move. I do think Matt Ryan is an upgrade over Carson Wenz, but he's not that much bigger of an upgrade. Like, if you go back and look at Wences's numbers last year, they actually weren't that terrible. He just, again, choked in these big moments. But Matt Ryan's not known for Matt Ryan's not known for doing that.

That's, you know, so. Right. Right. So it is, it is weird. All people are like, oh, my God, Matt Ryan's the Colts. Like, that's a game changer. They might be a top four, top three team in the AFC. I still don't really look like at them in that way with Matt Ryan.

It doesn't really move the needle for me. So if I'm just going off pure value base, I'll either be on the Jags or Houston at this point. And you know where I stand. I've already bet the Jags. I'll probably hop off this call and throw a little, throw a little bit on the Texas just because that's crazy if they're this high of a number.

I just like looking at my spreadsheet right now, I had them at 15 to 1. So the fact that they're dropped that far at this point, it just shows that people just aren't buying it. They're just looking at that as a very bland, boring team that's going to tank for a quarterback. A little couple three shekels. That's just what you're going to do.

Yeah, not even one unit, like literally maybe half a unit, maybe less. Half a little unit, just a little tiny unit. You don't have anything to say about the Titans. We don't think Ryan Tannehill is a championship level quarterback. We don't think that they have improved themselves on the edge necessarily with their drafting of a receiver. heard they've maybe maintained status quo. But this was a team that I think we all thought was overrated as the number one seed in the AFC last year.

They approved that out. Plenty of opportunities to advance last year. Rantahan, I thought was very thoughtful this week. He talked about being in therapy, thinking about the loss, having to get over the loss in the playoffs last year. That was clearly because of him. I thought it was equally powerful when he said, I'm not here to be. be a role model for Malik Willis.

What's your take on that? What's your take on players who outwardly say it's not my job to train this guy? I feel like he said everything wrong. Like I'm all for mental health and going to therapy and like that, but I just would not be put it out there in that type of scenario because I honestly think that's why that team drafted a quarterback. They're just like, dude, get over it. Like we all lose games.

Like I can't tell many times I've blown it or whatever in life. Like, that was just scared to me. The fact that he's, like, being hurt that much about that loss where I do put on, Daniel, he did choke that game away, but it's like, I don't know, man, it's, that's football. I just can't, I can't believe he had, he's in that kind of space where he said he's had sleepless nights and, like, he's had to really work through a lot of issues where that I don't like when quarterback's say they're not going to help the next guy, but I totally

get it. Like, you kind of have to be that way, I guess, in that job or it's like, his mentality right now is, yeah, I'm not going to help this guy, but come first practice. when him and they're both standing there doing that little bullshit throwing to each other or whatever and they're going to be shooting the shit. Tainhill's going to like this kid. Like I've seen a bunch of interviews, Malik's very likable. So Tain Hill might say that right now.

He hasn't met the kid. He doesn't know the kid. I just think he's pissed off. It'd be like you hiring someone to come do this show. Be like, hey, I want to bring this third guy in. Is that cool with you? I'd be like, yeah, Chad, that's great. But the back might be like, fuck you, Chad.

You're already bringing him my replacement. So I get where he's coming from. But that's human nature. I just, I wouldn't have said the therapy thing out loud, even though people like chat are like, yeah, that's great. We're all supportive. I'm a dog. I play, like anyone that played sports, like if I, I would talk so much shit to this guy in the football field if I had heard about this stuff, horrible things. Because that's an edge.

That's a weakness now that I know. So I don't like it, but I'm more siding with him in the sense that he, he's just shook right now. Like he's just saying things that a shook person would say. So I got no money on Tanya Hill. And I'll forever be grateful for Vrable for winning the coach of the year last year. But I'm so off Tennessee. They just perfect storm last year, right? Getting that one seat.

They ain't getting that one seat this year. By the way, now you know why Darren Ravelle hates you so much. Why? Because you were the third guy in on the show. And by the next year, we kicked Ravelle out. I remember I called Matt Mitchell. I'm like, Scooch can't do it. What do you think we just go with Simon and Darren?

And Matt Mitchell was like, fuck Darren. You don't need Darren. He said drop the Darren. He said drop Darren. It's tough business. This media thing, huh? Seriously. One day you're in.

The next day you're out. Next day you're buying your own card signed by you on your phone. Dude, no joke. I remember I was at a Super Bowl party many, many, many years ago. And there was a. at the time, high profile media personality, who we noticed had someone following him the whole time, just sort of pointing him, pointing at him and saying, hey, that's so-and-so, hey, that's so-and-so. Oh, my God.

Yeah. And me and another guy who was a writer at the magazine were like, is this really happening? Like, what is going on here? What a next level narcissist. I love that. I know, right? That's next level. That guy didn't last very long.

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Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes,

creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream,

this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeard radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people.

I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill,

waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.

Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. We got to go to the AFC West because that is the glamour division in the NFL right now. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, plus 155. Chargers, Justin Herbert, plus 240, Russell Wilson and the Broncos plus 260. Derrick Carr of the $140 million contract in Josh McDaniels plus $700.

I guess the value is on the Raiders there. Easy bet. Yeah, it's got to be. I mean, we're already invested in the Chargers. And I think we talked on the show at, they might have been $300.01 or $350. That was where the value was. We joked about it. Like, Chiefs, there always need to be the cream of the crop.

But then the Russell Wilson moved to the Denver, that's what got us good value on the Chargers. you just talk about this. No joke at the NFL said you have to pay this year to watch this division. I feel like every fan would pay because this is literally the best, arguably the best division in football ever. And we can go through each team, like the chiefs. Let's go through each team. And let's, by the way, let's do it with patience and care.

Let's talk about the chiefs. I don't, there's nothing I can do about the way I do it, child. No patience, no care. I'm just going to fly through it. Chiefs, don't do it. Don't tie your money up in this team this early. Of course not. It's just a waste.

We expect them to finally have maybe a down year, but it's like, am I going to put my money on it? A lot of people were, I mean, people could not wait to bury them last year. Remember that? How people were just so off of them. I had other pros texting me, dude, great calling the Chargers 40 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Great, great bet on the charges to win that division. We saw what happened the second half of the season, the young team, the charge of

Chargers with the young head coach who's overthinking it, going for it on every fourth down fell apart. And steady Eddie, Andy Reid, here he came again with Patrick Wilms and they won that division. And, you know, it's just I want to doubt them. And I just want to tell people to stay away from them. But it just seems like every year the chiefs are going to be in it. So to me, if I'm going off the team, I like the most of this division, it wouldn't be the chiefs. I just like you said, Chad, there's no value there right now. Chargers, however, plus 240.

There was value at plus 300. They traded for Kululalak. Derwin James will be healthy. Justin Herbert is still Justin Herbert. Hopefully they have learned a little bit about the value of going forward and forth and forth down and when not to go forward on fourth down and how to gain points. Because this team is a, you know, we've been, the Chargers are soccer of the 1980s. They are the future team every single year. Could this be the year they finally become

the team of the future? Yeah. I mean, again, we're people know we love the charges. Like we that was one of my better hits I've ever had in 1901 was talking about him as rookie the year. And, you know, I don't know what Herbert is doing this offseason, but I can guarantee you it's all football related. This kid just seems like the ultimate football nerd. He's a quiet dude, but apparently he is just obsessed with football. So, you know, it's hard not to love this Chargers team. They've done great this off season. I think they took an offensive line in the first round.

Love to see it. Just keep adding to that O line and making it better for him. It's just the value's gone. Like me and Chad talk all the time. It's a value-based business. So, yeah, I might like them the most to win this division. I think they're the best bet. Sure, if you want to take it, take it.

But I just feel bad saying to this is my, you have to take it. best value in this bet because we gave it out a month ago and it was at plus 300 plus 350 different books and now you're you're missing out almost you know plus 100 plus 150 that's a lot of value to miss out on the the charter took zion johnson uh offensive guard in boston college in the first round will be a total day one starter yep uh this is an offensive line that with the draft last year this should be a great offensive line for the next five years like they are so set at every single position. This is a team just poised for greatness.

And in any other division, they are minus 300 favorites to win their division. Yeah. Again, the best division ever in football. Instead, there are a plus 240 behind the Kansas City Chiefs and before just barely the new Russell Wilson led Denver Broncos. So I'm, Chad knows I planted my flag in. Russell Wilson is one of the most overrated quarterbacks to ever play football.

And nothing's changed. Not doing anything with Denver, not touching it. It's, to me, it's just going to be a team that a million excuses are going to be made for them because all these things went wrong for them in the upcoming season. But they are what they are. I just don't see it happening with this team. I love their defense. I really do.

but with Russell Wilson, I just can't see it working out for them. His prime was about two and a half, three years ago. And those days of him doing that McNabb, Tony Romo, scramble around, throw off his back foot, 60 yards downfield right into a guy in stride into the end zone. It's just, it's just few and far in between. In my opinion, it's kind of gone. So if people are looking like you got a huge upgrade offensively in Denver, go look at the splits on Denver's offensive line.

they're horrible. Did they improve their offensive line this year? No, they did not really. So I'm off of it. I'm just not on this Denver team. I don't know if you feel different about it, Cheth. No, they drafted one offensive lineman, by the way. They had probably close to 10, I think 10 picks,

mostly late round picks, one offensive lineman, largely choosing on the defensive side of the ball. I'm with you. I think there's too much. I'm the opposite of you and that I love Russell Wilson, but I'm with you and that there's too much value being placed on what he can do for this team. Based on the miraculous things he's done for the Seahawks over the years,

only this Denver team, the coaching is still obviously going to be brand new. You don't know what you're getting yet. And I think there's still some holes offensively that they need to worry about. So to me, it's a pass at plus 260, especially when you've got the Raiders and a dynamic offensive mind in Josh McDaniels. Hold on one sec.

What? You just said, you said what pisses me off by the Russell Wilson. You said he's done all these amazing things for Seattle. Name them. Guy. There isn't, people can't.

I do it all the time. Like, I have other pros to say that shit. I'm just like, oh yeah, that amazing moment where he threw that pick in the end zone where his team lost Super Bowl. Oh,

my God. Wasn't that amazing moment where his team won 43 to 8 where his defense scored. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. defense a touch. That is, that is, that is, that is an over generalization. It's not. Like, look. Congrats on 11 and 5 every year, making the playoffs and then losing in the first and second

round at home. You're defining great things as having one championships. I'm defining great things as having covered. And many, many times in his career, when it seemed like the Seahawks should have been out of the game one way or the other, this guy has come. back and led them to a last second win or gotten them to a place where they ended up covering a game they shouldn't have covered. That's all I'm talking about. He has supreme athletic ability and the ability to make plays and ability to keep his team in the game. Doesn't mean they're

Super Bowl contenders? No. Does it mean that I think this team can win the division? No. All I'm saying is that I give him credit for over the years, haven't been a guy who kept his team in a position to cover. That's it. I'm going to reach out to Evan. I'm going to find out what is splitswear historically against the spread after losing the Legion of Boom. I don't think it's as good as you think it is. Guess what? Guess what? Guess what?

I guarantee I'm right. In the same way, I was right about no quarterback. God damn it. Boom. Raiders, plus 700, Josh McDaniels, Derrick Carr, signed Derrick Carr to a massive $140 million guaranteed deal. Yeah. Go to lose to it.

I mean, that's the one. Yeah, we love, this is by far the best value. I think of all the divisions right now, this might be my favorite value, but this team is, again, Gruden did definitely, Gruden and Maydock in these NFL drafts, they did screw this Raiders team. Okay, they have holes on this defense, but oh my God, this offense. Like, if they can figure it out with Adams, Renfro, and Waller, unbelievable.

Like this, it's, it's, it's literally, again, we can go through all the league. There's just so much talent everywhere. It's got to be one of the top five receiving courts. And Derek Carr, we've seen him have those moments. Like he can make throws that only a handful of guys can make. So I hate it because I hate betting money on Derek Carr because he just always burns me. I always like, okay. Because again, he had that MVP year.

Shit, man, might be like six years ago with Amari Cooper and Cleo Macra on his team. He has that in him. He just has not be able to put it together. And last year they were putting together. They just had so much last year and they still somehow made the playoffs. And again, they were a fourth down away completion in the end zone from beating the bangles on the road. So it's ugly. It's gross.

But these are the bet you need to make. And this to me is a smart bet taking the Raiders where this number should be closer to plus 400 just because again, I think the Chargers and Chiefs are better than them. But it's bumped way down just because people are so much higher on Denver than we are. So I love taking that value on the Raiders right now. All right. We love the Raiders plus 700 in the AFC West. In the AFC North, we kind of might like the Ravens a little bit. In the AFC East, dolphins plus 400.

AFC South. Just a couple pennies on Houston. Couple, couple, couple, two or three shekels on Houston. For Simon Hunter, for producer Matt Mitchell, I am Chadman. This has been the favorites from the Vioux. Volume podcast network. Guys, we've been in a lot of questions about the show changing time. So every Tuesday and Thursday night at 11 o'clock Eastern, we will be dropping our episodes.

Basically, it's the thing with the volume. Until further notice, we'll be keeping it at that schedule. So 11 p.m. Tuesdays and Thursdays, that's when the show will be dropping. Download us on Apple Podcast, Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts, rate, review, subscribe, give us five stars, say anything you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends.

Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits,

my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

So let's get to it. Listen to The Cliford Show on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok.