The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets for NFL Week 3

Episode Date: September 25, 2021

Two of the Action Network's finest NFL minds finalize their betting card for Sunday's NFL slate, as Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, welcomes his co-host, professional bettor and best friend Simon Hunter. Together they have a lively discussion covering the Miami Dolphins, the disgusting Jacksonville Jaguars, a trap being laid in Buffalo and so much more. They also walk into a hornet's nest for their scariest weekly pick, and give their survivor pool pick of the week. Are they ready to believe in Kliff Kingsbury this season? Will they back Justin Fields in his first road start? Listen and find out! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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That's 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman, chief content officer of the Action Network. The Action Network is the company that provides you with all the betting information, and research data picks that you need, get it all in our free award-winning app, download it, the Action Network app.

I am joined by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter, my brother. What's going on? Chad, buddy. It was a great scene yesterday. It was one of those rare occasions. We had to hang out for an entire day.

We had a full day together yesterday. The entire Action Network crew, or a lot of the Action Network crew, me, you, Brett McMurphy, Capital J, AKA Sources, Dan Ravel, Rahim Palmer, Amanda Rose, our video team. It was fantastic. We were in a studio in Brooklyn, New York. We were very cool. We were very hipster. It was a street that was just warehouses, combination of, studios,

auto body shops, metal works shops, like hipster bars, hipster bars, everything graffeted, and we're walking around like we belong. We were doing a full day of video,

stuff that we need to populate our YouTube page, Action Network on YouTube, stuff that we need to support sponsor videos, all this great stuff. We had a great conversation about what a sports betting Hall of Fame would look like. Really fun, Really great day. It was great to see you. You looked fantastic.

I mean, I definitely, anytime I left the walk around, I definitely got a lot of side eyes because I looked like I was going to church. And people on that street were just like, what's the deal with this guy? My favorite part chat was how comfortable you are in front of cameras. I mean, you couldn't have been any happier to take photos, do videos. I mean, you were in your element. Me, I was joking with a camera guy. That's my first photos probably since high school, like 20 years ago for prom. I haven't had photos like that in that long. And it was just very uncomfortable for me.

But it was fun definitely being up there. But it was definitely like a normal guy. I hate looking at myself. So it was pretty uncomfortable. The whole take 20 photo or take 100 photos and then do videos. It was different. That was, it was a really fun day. As usual, you were astute in pointing out all the things I don't want people to notice about me.

Huge show today. We got to go over a survivor pick. We got to introduce some money line parlor. We got to narrow down our final five. Reminder, I'll be on with Colin tomorrow in which I challenge him against his picks. Sunday morning, convinced me at Action Network HQ 11 a.m. We've got some reviews. We did our big balls bet of the week on Tuesday.

That was the San Francisco 49ers. I'm already regretting in Simon. I'm seeing a lot of research that makes me think we want to be on the Packers. We said Simon says the Bengals. and now that that line has moved considerably huge, huge sharp action coming in on the bangles there. Definitely the sharp side. We're going to go over all of it. Simon, I get these notes from this guy on Twitter, these DMs.

He goes by John Doe on Twitter. And Matt Mitchell, I don't know if it's you with a burner account. They are some of the best content production notes that I get. And like he will give me feedback. He gives insight. he is so spot on. And today, his note for today was like, I think the Thursday show is really an update.

What's going on with injuries? What are Simon sources saying about who will be out? Who's playing? What to look for before Sunday. Also, bigger look at the line movement, the bet percentage, the money percentage. The Valcans giant split is interesting. Wonder why it hasn't fallen.

Do the books know something? I need to challenge you more. Last Thursday, several times you said nothing has changed. But what were you looking for to change in particular matchups and if nothing has changed, what does that mean vis-a-vis the number? This guy's notes are amazing. I don't know who the fuck he is. I agree with everything he said.

I don't know this guy. I don't know this guy. It sounds like he's in your head. I'm sick of it already. I hate this guy. Oh, my God. I can't believe you're like a little bit challenged and a little bit sensitive. I could go 10 and no with his picks to you in the DM chat.

I am comfortable in my position, my friend. Listen, he's not looking to challenge you and your picks. I think he loves you in your picks. I think he's looking, he wants even more information than I'm pulling from you right now. It's more of a critique of the way I'm managing the show than of your performance. I'll never be able to give injury updates on Thursday. I'm just like everyone else. I'm waiting for injury reports on Sunday.

NFL teams lie constantly. But I'm always definitely on the lookout and always looking for information that way. So yeah, if I ever get any type of information like that, I would definitely say it on this show. So we had eight games that we had squared that we wanted to talk about, that we're going to keep an eye on. And then over the past couple days, I've had two more games that I've sort of been continuing to do research on that are making me think twice.

Let's start with the eight games. I think there's a couple games early on. We can agree on. Chargers plus six and a half against the Chiefs. I love this game. Love it. I continue to love it. Let me give you a little bit of data.

Okay. You pointed out on Tuesday. You pointed out on Tuesday. It's been nine games since. the Chiefs covered the spread, excluding week 17 last year, a meaningless game. And they've all been one score games. You're spot on about this game. I love it. Yeah, we're screwed. It feels too easy, Chad. It's definitely one of these games I keep looking at over and over again because something just feels all a little off about it. Love the number, though. Like we talked about

on Tuesday, nothing has changed in this fact. Six and a half, it's great number. I was hoping to go back to seven. That's what a lot of the pros hit it at. Still, we love the six and a half. A divisional game that we've seen it with the Chiefs defense, they can be run on at will. And this team with the Chargers, you can say what they want. Bad offensive lines is pretty good. They're going to be able to run the ball against this week Chiefs front.

So we're expecting a very close game here, Chad, and the fact that it's two points higher than what it should be, just because it is the Chiefs. This is why the Chiefs keep not covering because the lines keep getting bumped up this way. So we're going to keep riding this trend, we're going to take the charges here. Yeah, there's a pretty specific pattern here. The chiefs are the public darling.

Their lines get overinflated. They don't cover. The games are closer than everyone thinks they should be. I'll reiterate, one and eight in the last night against the spread. All those are one score games. Since 2003, divisional dogs of three or more,

according to Betlabs, are database of literally millions of data points in betting going back to 2003. Since 2003, divisional dogs of three or more, 408, 358, 18 against a spread. It's 53.3%, which is what you need to be a profitable better. The systems, the market, the stats are all telling us the chargers are the right side here. And again, these are the kind of bets you make. And when you lose it, you don't get pissed yourself. There's nothing you can do.

In the end, it comes down to them playing a sport. But this is the data you need to use people. Like all these little factors playing to making these kind of bets because you know long term, this is a winning bet. And even short term, this feels like the smart play because just what we've seen with these two teams. Like the Chargers, both their games have been incredibly close. And we've seen it with the Chiefs. I mean, they should have dominated the Ravens. They just don't have the defense to do it.

this team does not have the defense to really put teams away. And they always let the back door be open. So that's why we like this number so much, Chad. The professional betters like yourself, you probably got this game power rated at three and a half or four. You also noted this is a pro versus Joe game. Majority of bets coming in on the Chiefs right now, but this line moved down from seven to six and a half.

And it's kind of just been sitting there. I guess the only question, Simon, is do we wait? Like, do we think on Sunday so much more money is going to come in? on the Chiefs, especially because the Chargers lost to the Cowboys, that there's a chance to get the extra half point? Or do we go get it now? Or do we get it now and get it at South? Yeah, you can get it now. You could wait. I just don't see it going back to seven. The pros, every time they move to seven, they hit it. It's the same thing with the Ravens. Anytime the Ravens touch plus four, the professional has come back in on it. That's why I kept going back down plus three and a half

last week. So it's just a pro number. Maybe it could. Like you said, the public could come in so heavy on parleyes and teasers and things like that that they could bump back up to seven. But it's such a key number. Like we talk about all the time that I just cannot see the bookmakers doing. I think they'll just keep it at six and a half. My feeling is that chargers will 100% be one of our best five on Sunday. No doubt. Okay. The next game we got to talk about. It's so ugly. And this is where I feel like, are we making mistakes in how we're thinking about the contest, right? Because the Jags are seven and a half point home underdogs.

On paper, I know the games aren't played on paper, but bets are made on paper. On paper, 100% we should be taking the Jags in this game. There's zero, zero doubt. Agree or disagree? 100%. It's, again, we saw it on Tuesday. It was one of those I said to this is a no-brainer. You bet the Jags here.

We're going to be the only couple people of still betting the Jags. We talked about it. This could be a complete meltdown of a team. I wish we just trusted my gut when we talked, you know, a month and a half ago. And I said, yeah, not that big of a fan of Trevor Lawrence. And Zach Wilson, are we sure this kid should be the second pick overall?

And this Jets doesn't have all these holes. And same thing, the Jaguars we talked about. This team has so many holes and weaknesses. is you're bringing in a college coach like Urban Meyer. He gives that terrible quote to Vic Vanjia, who just sold him right down the river saying this guy came up with me and said, it's like you play Alabama every week. Like, no shit.

These guys, it's the best of the best. Man, bad, Chad. Bad, bad, bad. It could all be on fire. So, yes, I will not make people put this in our contest because I feel bad losing people's good, hard-earned money on the Jaguars. But you have to bet this game. It's such a pro game.

You take the seven and a half home dog against the team that what a win for the Cardinals. They know they got away with them last week. They're going to be feeling good all this week. We like to fade Kingsbury. We do not believe in this guy as a head coach. And on top of that, the Cardinals defense is one of the, you know, worst graded defenses this year. They can be run on huge gaping holes for that team, especially last week against Alvin Cook. So it's a game we think Robinson will get right.

And Trevor Lawrence, you want to turn the ball over. as much. Seven and a half. It's too big of a number. This Cardinals team should not be favored by that much. So, yeah,

we could look like idiots come next week when the Jaguars get blown out again. But I have to as a professional bet this number, but I'm not, I'm not going to make you make it our best five, Chad.

Don't worry. No, it is 100% the sharp play. Only because when a team is this big of an underdog at home, you historically have to bet it. And the Cardinals,

I think a lot of professional betters, they look at these games and think the Cardinals are suspect. They think, A, they can't trust Cliff Kingsbury. We know this. Matt Mitchell knows this. He's done his Cliff Kingsbury rant. They are a shoot for the moon, need miracle big plays in order to win games. We sought against Minnesota.

That Minnesota team is not very good. The jury's still out on this Tennessee team. They might not be very good. They played, you know, two games plus an extra quarter, except for the fourth quarter, and that overtime, they haven't been very good. And so now the Cardinals,

if you start to look back, this is when we start to get a little bit, you know, of the opportunity to see how these teams have played. Cardinals have played two teams that might be mediocre, but have won in spectacular fashion. Every fiber of our being

should say, take the Jags in this spot. There's plenty of systems that will tell you, oh and two teams as dogs at home are the 100% right side. But Urban Meyer, genuinely is out of his depth.

And you mentioned the Vic Van Gio thing. He sounded like Tweedledee and Tweedled don't. What a tool. The reason I'm so cautious of putting this one in is because the Jets, this reminds of the Jets last year. The Jets and the Cowboys, I think both started the year 0 and 5 or 0 and 6 against the spread. So some of these teams that suck,

they just simply suck and they just don't cover because they are so bad. And so, you know, the coaching is the biggest thing in football. If you don't have the coaching, it doesn't matter all the skill and talent you have on the team. It's just not going to mesh well. So that's why I'm so hesitant to put it in our plays just because of that factor. It's like, you know what? Maybe the Jaguars aren't the right value yet.

And the bookmakers are still trying to catch up to it. And everyone's getting a good read here with the Cardinals. But like you just said, Chad, the 0 and two trends is what we're playing off of here. An 0 and 2 trend of, you know, I believe it's have well above 60% clip the last couple years of the week three teams that I haven't covered against. the spread yet. So we're going to avoid the Atlanta Falcons we're 0-2 against the spread, but we ain't going to avoid the Jaguars. We're bad in the Jaguars come Sunday. Well, I'm going to give you all the O&2 trends. And I blatantly stole these O&2 trends from Stucky, action network analyst Stucky. The volume podcast network fans can hear him on

John Middilcoff's podcast every week. People should download the Action Network podcast, one of the top 60 ranked sports podcasts. He and Chris Raybon will go over their Sunday six-pack. And he loves the O&2 trends and has a litany of them. And I know that we're going to get to a team that we love as an O&2 dog, that I will lay them all out. But at this point, the Jags, it's a pass for me. Yeah.

I love that we're being mature enough to recognize. that. We're not just saying, oh, yeah, we got to take it. It's a pass. I was better personally. That's what, like, I'm trying to put my best five in this thing where it's like, I feel terrible about last week with Atlanta because that was just brutal. These people had such high hopes. You know, they're only down three. They had the ball. Back-to-back, pick six is in a Brady touchdown later. They're down 21. So I'm going to be trying to be a little more sharper with this contest where I won't always just put in the sharp numbers. The Titans and the Colts. The Titans are,

five, five and a half point favorites. You like the Titans. If I can, I'm throwing a challenge flag. I'm starting to feel like I like the Colts. I'm sure you do. It's the sharp bet of the week. That's why I'm fading it. It's too.

How can people bet on the Colts when this quarterback position is deceased? They do not have a quarterback on this roster right now. And maybe this kid will come in and let up the world because Tennessee's cornerbacks are that bad. But can't do it. Can't play with them. Can't win with them. No, I'm just, I would just stay away from it. I wouldn't make you put in our contest, but it's one of the few favorites I do like this week where

if this was Carson Wentz, I'd be all over the Colts. In a divisional game, this line should be three, three and a half. Because I don't, like we talked about all year, I don't think Tennessee as good as people think they are. But with a backup quarterback on this Colts team, when they don't have a left tackle on this team, yeah, can't do it with the Colts. And you don't feel like,

you feel like there's that much of a drop off from Carson Wentz to Jacob Eason. Don't you feel like you might still be overrating Carson Wens just a little bit? Carson Wens, who just lost the three points at home to the Rams? No, I think he's properly rated. He's good, but he's not great. He's better than this backup quarterback. They're bringing to Eason.

What's he? A six-round pick? The way in which you just dismissed my comment about Carson Wence, uh, that was kind of hurtful. Because if he played on the Bears in the last 20 years, he'd be the greatest quarterback that ever played for the Bears. So it's one of those where it's like, yeah, a little bit, the guy who almost won MVP in his second year in the league.

No doubt, though. I'm with you that I am. I'm off Carson Wentz, though. That's why I'm not going to defend them to my grave anymore. I'm done with Carson. Listen, if he was on the Bears, then all of a sudden I'd be waving around a Carson Wentz bubblehead instead of a Sid Luckman, bubblehead. All right. Well, I don't know that we can put this one in the contest.

I don't know that you and I can come to a meeting. Yeah, we disagree too much. on it. That's fair. I don't like it. The other one that I think we're going to disagree on, the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Detroit as massive road favorites. And like this goes, everything we don't believe in is, is in this game right now. It is a massive road favorite, getting all the bets, getting all the money against an 0-and-2 team. Like, how can we- prime time loss. Of a primetime loss.

I know. And a team in the Ravens that has a prime time win. I know. Everything is out of whack. Everything is out of whack. Lamar breaks the rules. The universe is off of its access in this game. I told you,

I've lost too much money going against Lamar against bad teams. I will not do it. This guy in his two-year career of just taking money from me. When I'm like, oh, the Cincinnati Bengals are a 13 dog against the, The Ravens here, got to take the Bengals. They lose by 21. I can't do it anymore. I can't take these dogs against Lamar.

He just beats the shit out of these bad teams. And, okay, I'm with, I'm sure you listen to Stuck, and he talked about all the injuries the Ravens have and how they kind of got lucky against the Chiefs. I think the Lions have been lucky and that they've had these kind of matches where they've been in these games. And we saw golf got affected by the rain last week. Okay, that's kind of his out there.

In the second half, he fell apart. It was because of the rain. The guy couldn't grip the ball, apparently. Just cannot see an track meet the lines keeping up with this Ravens team. So we don't have to put it in, Chad. But again, this is one of these games. I will be betting the Ravens. And I'm going to be chalked.

I'll probably have them in a ton of teas and Moneyland Parlayers. I just love the Ravens to win these games. I think he's 14-1 against teams below 500 in his career, Lamar. So sign me up, Chad. I love the Ravens. It's so interesting because, everything we're saying about the Jaguars, about why we like the Jaguars in their game against the Cardinals are applied to the Lions.

The Lions are one-to-one against the spread. So you have to throw out all your O-N-2 stats. That's true. But they are an O-N-2 team. O-N-2 teams that are straight up since 2002, 52, 36, and one against the spread. That's actually pretty good. Yeah. But again, there's 36 of them that don't cover.

And that's what I'm betting on here. Well, I guess you make your money by being a contrarian. I can't always, like I can't always do the sharp plays. That's the thing people don't get. There's something like I took on the chin last week trying to go against the sharps. And we talked on the phone. Like we had the Seahawks in. And I was like, I think we might have to take it out.

I've had too many sharps hit me up there like Tennessee Titans. So again, I am one to be humbled constantly. Like I'm never too cocky or anything to be like, no, this is, I know what I'm doing. here. We're taking Seahawks because what do these guys know? No, like I try to listen to people that are coming in with good information. So I do, this is one of these few games where I do feel like I will be with the public on and I feel comfortable with it. Like if this was week 10, I'd probably be with you. I'd probably would be taking the Colts. I probably would be taking the Tennessee Titans here. Because it's so early in the season, I feel more comfortable taking these kind of favorites.

What calls have you gotten? So we did the podcast on Tuesday. We go over every game. I saw you yesterday. and you said you were already getting calls from other professional betters about some of the games that we had discussed. What are some of the games that professional betters called you about? So multiple calls were about our Washington Buffalo pick. I talked about it. I like Buffalo. I like going against a guy making his first career start on the road and Heineke. And man, did I get a lot of calls?

So they were nine, maybe nine and a half at the time we talked about it. So these pros who called me, they've, like we talked about yesterday, and I think it was down to eight and a half at the time. Now it's down to seven on family. So the professionals have clearly, they know something here. And they're making a statement. And we talked about it. I thought Josh Allen didn't look right in that Miami game.

I thought he still didn't look as what he did last year where the offense just looked easy and smooth and he really couldn't miss and he's making great reads. This has to be a get right game for him. That's why I don't really get the love for Washington. Like was Washington really really? going to keep up with this team where we saw Washington give up all those yards to Daniel Jones. I just Josh Allen is the, Daniel Jones could only dream of being what Josh Allen is now. Like Josh Allen is the dream. He's a big strong quarterback that can run and throw the ball

downfield. So for me, I understand why the pros like this game. It's a big number against a team in Buffalo that we talked about all year. It's just regression, regression, regression, regression. But I'll take the bills here. It's, I'm a little chalk. this week, Chad, but now that's down to seven. I'm happy taking the bills here. Well, that's what I was going to say. It's getting to a point where you might want to take the bills because the number has moved. It's moved so much. The one thing I would say about this game, Ron Rivera does not have games in which he wins or loses by more than eight points. That's just not a trend in his career as a coach. And the only other thing that I would say about this is that

the total is pretty low. Like the total is 45. And so if you think like if you're going to bet a number of a touchdown or more, which is what this is at, that's a big number to bet on a total that is this low. Again, it's a fade on Heineke. That's why I feel it's interesting how much confidence people have back in them where it's like, I don't know.

It's a lot of unknown with this kid. Again, he looked great against the Buccaneers in the playoffs, the one game he played last year. And then he looked really good against the Giants. He's had two career starts and both wrong at home. So it's, I just can't back this kid on his first start on the road. Let me give you one more system. Okay.

Are you ready? Yes. Teams that cover by more than 28 points since 2003. The next week, 82, 105, and 6 against the spread. So you are going against a trend that wins at about, a 57% clip. And we talked about that. I don't like that.

They're coming off such a big win. But what goes into that is all, again, Miami had three zeros in the red zone. So they went to the red zone three different times. They didn't get any points out of it. And Tua went down early in the first. So that kind of game plan was all thrown out because we have a team that's all built around Tua, the way that system is built.

They do run option. Reset's not meant to do run option play. this guy is kind of a stand-in-the-pocket kind of quarterback. He's not really a runner. So a lot of things change on Miami game where it's kind of a fluke. I kind of just throw it out. Again, the only negative I took for that game is I just didn't think Josh Allen looked right. I still think he doesn't look what he did last year.

That's the only thing that's really giving me pause where I wouldn't make this one of our five, but I'm probably not going to just because of that. I love, I love this because it is like I'm bringing you the broad numbers and you're telling me why they make sense, but why the elements of this situation actually play against that. And I can't argue with you at all. Like we've already talked about,

we've entered this new era of coaching of the non-CYA decision. We saw it with Frank Reich and the Colts going for it consistently on fourth and goal. The dolphins going consistently for it. The Eagles going consistently for it. Can't argue with it. Yeah, it messes with these numbers too.

We had a bunch of games last week that you should have been covering or winning outright, and you weren't because these teams were unsuccessful in those positions. Yeah, it's totally true. So, all right. The other game that I know wise guys have hit aggressively, this was your assignment says bet. It's still on our list. Cincinnati Bengals, on Tuesday, they were at plus four and a half against the Steelers. You said, Simon says, bet it, bet it, bet it, bet it, bet it.

Now it's plus three. Yeah. So you kind of knew the pros were going to coming on that, and it was more of a hedge against Rathesberger. I kind of read that he was a little banged up. And what do we have? We have a team in Pittsburgh that has a lot of injuries and a lot of key positions. That's what we talked about on Tuesday. And I thought this number should be three. In a divisional game, it's pretty much a coin flip between both these teams. Both these teams are the bottom of their division. We know that. They're fighting. They're going to be, both of them going to fight each other for the last spot in this division. So, four and a half we love the number three and a half we would still take it but at three i can't i can't make people out there take it if you're going to take it maybe just take the money line here because you've already missed all the value of four and a half four and three and a half but for our picks chad uh if we get three and a half as our best five we are 100 percent going to have the bengal zone i agree with you but this is definitely a wait for the number

play the number get the hook scenario you want that hook if this is this is is a, like I had a great at a field goal game. That's what I think Pittsburgh is going to win by field goal. That's why we love the hook. It just, it feels like a good number for this game. Well, also it speaks to that divisional game, right?

Like, this is going to be a game that is tight. It is going to be a game where it comes down to the wire. To me, it's going to be like that chiefs and Chargers game, which is why that Chief's Chargers spread is so, uh, is so inflated and why you want to take the charges as well. It seems like last one. We talked,

I said I like the Bengals at three and a half, but below three at in the number three, we liked the Bears last week. That number literally landed on three by hook or by crook. I mean, it doesn't make sense how it ended up at three because it was 23 in the fourth quarter, but it did. So that's why we're always trying to get the best number out here because it is so important these early weeks here.

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next step, do 53342 in Arizona. Let's get back to the show. All right, this is the game that we got to talk about. the Miami Dolphins with Jacoby Preset going to the Las Vegas Raiders. Oh my God, dude. Pro Joe, Taylor, made, Miami. The line's getting bigger. We are all over this game.

Nothing has changed for us. The only thing that's changed is that like we like this game. We like this game even more. Yeah. It's classic. We bet this game. Then we take a shower afterwards. It's disgusting.

It's the grossest bet. So we, Chad, wanted some sharp bets. This is one of our sharp five. This is like one of my, there's a lot of different reasons to take this number, but the biggest one is Oakland is everyone's fan favor right now. I mean, who the hell is talking about Derek Carr for MVP now? Everyone?

What the, what world are we living in? Seems weird. Again, I don't want to hate on Derek Carr too much. We talked about it. I like Derek Carr coming to the year. I thought this guy could lead the league in passing, but two weeks, he's people's MVP. Now is the time we fade Derek Carr.

So yes, give me the four and a half. Give me the four. Public's coming in so heavy on the Raiders. Las Vegas Raiders now, I think are getting over 85% of the bet. So we're happy in our position right now taking the four and a half. What's interesting is the, yeah, it's 81% of the bets are on the Las Vegas Raiders with Derrick Carr, a quarterback who Simon Hunter said before the season began, he loved. thought was a very good quarterback. It turns out he's spot on.

And only about 50% of the money. It's evenly split. So that tells you that the wise guys are coming in strong on the dolphins. Let me give some stats. And the Derek Carr stuff. We don't know how serious this injury is to Derek Carr. That's what's making me like betting this so much. Same thing is we haven't talked about yet with the Bears.

I don't think there'd be as serious as telling us what's going on with Baker and his injury. Okay, like I literally didn't throw the ball after you supposedly popped his shoulder on popped it back in. So it's a lot of bears, a lot of questions here are these quarterbacks coming into week three. But this is in every scenario, right? The Raiders are overvalued coming off of huge upsets in games that were very high profile and very, very dramatic. The fins with a backup quarterback. And in reality, from a power rating perspective, from a handicapped in perspective, how much would you drop the dolphins? with Jacoby Brissette playing against instead of Tua?

I did only move at half a point, but it's because of sample it to it. It just hasn't played enough games for me to really have such a high grade on him, where Berset, again, he's not one of the 32 best quarterbacks, but he's a good backup to have. The guy has arm strength, he's smart with the ball. We're going to see a much different team this week when he has a whole week to practice and they can kind of scheme the offense around Berset and having the whole offense built around Tua last week,

where he just came in off the bench and tried to make it work. So again, we're getting such an undervalued team here in Miami. It's hard not to take this number. We love the Miami Dolphins here. Just love them. That's got to be our ugliest dog, right? Like, we don't, if it's either them or the Jags, we got to pick one of them to put in. I feel more comfortable with Miami.

I do too. I do too. We haven't Hornets nested any game. And I have a feeling this could be it. The Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Scared. I'm starting to get scared, Chad. help me. I'm scared. Tell me why. Right now the the buccaneers are one point favorites. The number is

flipped. They were one point dogs. Sixty eight percent of the bets on Tampa, 51 percent of the money on Tampa. So a lot less money than bets on Tampa. What are you afraid of? Are you afraid that like our initial handicap that the Rams are the right side isn't the right side? I'm just scared that I've like bet too much money already on the Rams. And it's like, oh my God. Why am I going against time Brady like this. What am I doing? Like, can't I just avoid this game? Everything points to the Rams. Like we talked about on Tuesday. But this is just a classic where I'm like overthinking it too much where it's like, okay, the Rams, who did they beat? They beat the Bears with Andy Dalton. And then they beat like you hated on Carson Wentz and the Colts. It's a little nerve-wracking.

But at the same time, I have to trust my system and trust these numbers. And it's like, okay, the Rams are up to plus two plus two and a half. If they get to three, I'm going to have way too much money bet on this Rams team as a home dog. The Buccaneers are just so incredibly overvalued. Aaron Donald, if you can get one shot on Brady, that might be all she wrote for the Buccaneers this season. I mean, this guy, this is the exact reason you take the ramps. I know that the Henderson injuries are big deal for them at running back, but they also still have Sonny Michelle there. I can't make us put it as one of our five, so it's going to be up to you on Sunday. But yes, people. I will be back in the Rams. I know McVeigh, someone told me he's like,

O-N-3 is a home dog. I don't care. Okay, that's too small of a sample. I'm in on McVeigh. I'm in on this team. And I really like him in this position as a home dog. We are in the Hornets Nest, folks. I'm walking into a fucking Hornet's Nest, all right? Now, be my companion. Hornet, Hornet, Honestness, Honestnessness. The whole damn thing. Walking into a hornet's nest. Because I feel like everything you're saying is true, the one thing I need you to tell me is what do you have this power rated at? I had it at minus one the Rams.

So when I opened, I think they might have been minus one or minus two. I thought, okay, that's a fair, fair number. When we talked about, we like Brady as a dog. I mean, he's great against the spread as a dog. But now that's shifted maybe, it's going to end up shifting five points. Woo! That's, that's a big, big, big movement. So it might not always work out for us riding with the books here, but this is one of

these positions I feel comfortable packing with the books and taking this home dog. Oh, goodness. Oh, goodness. All right. So right now, the way I'm looking at it, we definitely have the chargers as one of our five. We definitely have the dolphins as one of our five. I'm, as much as it scares me to bet against Tom Brady, I kind of agree with you on this game. I do like the Rams here. You're convincing me. It's a, it's a, it's a good scheme. I mean, they beat the bucks last year too with God. People, people forget that little detail. But we can, we can talk about it. This is, it feels like we're either going to have to take this one here, the Rams, or we're going to have to take Minnesota Vikings against Seattle.

Like, we're going to have to take one of these home dogs where we, we like these teams. And the, the situation is just right for them to be in. So I'm going to leave that up to you on Sunday. But right now, Chad, I'm sorry, I have to do it to you. You're going to have to pick between one of these home dogs here, between the Vikings in Seattle or the Rams versus the Buccaneers. I do want to challenge you on the Vikings for a second. And that's the next game on our list that we had talked about and pegged.

The Vikings are short home dogs. Is it possible that this team isn't very good and that we're making a mistake and overvaluing the situation they're in and the coaching ability of Mike Zimmer? they're not good. We took their under for season win tolls. We were one of the few people that were banging the drum to take this team's under. And I talked about how I didn't have them coming in second in the north where everyone else is betting them to come in second. We end up talking about how we like the bears better than the Vikings. But no, this is situational. We have a team that's just played back-to-back road games. Now they're coming home. And we've seen it. The Vikings always play better at home. Zimmer in his career is above 60% against the spread at home, I believe. So we have to, Chad. This is. just you take a team that you know what you said is true this could be an absolute dumpster fire like after they missed that field goal and we know that Zimmer and Kirk cousins are button heads about the whole vaccine and everything like that but it's getting up to two now two and a half if this lands at three once again there's there's no there's no world I don't bet on the

vikins is a plus three home dog to the Seattle team that just got ran on I mean absolutely ran on by the Tennessee Titans in the second half. And the blocking scheme is way better with the Vikings. And they had Dalvin Cook, who's just as good at the running back as Derek Henry. So it's just those things all point to taking Minnesota here in this game. We love the Minnesota Vikings. And I feel like it might burn us.

I honestly feel like I'd almost rather bet on the Rams on Sunday than on the Vikings. I can't fault you for it. I hate betting on Kirk Couss too. That was when I lost that money line, I didn't blame the kicker. I blame Kirk Cousins for just being fucking terrible. Well, you have, well, you know, last week we talked a lot about this, ended up the Ravens were your biggest bet of the week.

Do you think the Rams will end up being your biggest bed of the week? No chance. Just because it's Brady. Like, if it was anyone other, if it was any other quarterback, it would be. But like, I have it, and I have a notebook with a bunch of different notes. And one of the biggest things I have circled for my early days, don't fucking bet a lot of money against Brady. And that has saved me a lot of money in my life, chat.

I never forget in the Super Bowl, I was going to bet pretty big on the Rams. And I was just going through my old notebook. I opened that up and it said in big letters, don't fucking bet against, don't bet big money against Tom Brady. So I said, fuck it. I'll take New England Patriots against the Rams. They dominated them. So it sounds stupid.

It sounds simple. But I'm happy being the last one to fade Brady. It's worked out for me his career. This guy every year just keeps coming back. So I'll be patient with that. Except this weekend when we bet on the Rams. Fact. All right.

Here's another one of my challenges. You said on Tuesday the Niners were our big balls bet of the week, minus three and a half. Every trend says go bet the Packers. Yeah, everyone's going to hate it too. Everyone's going to be talking about the cornerbacks of the 49ers, how Rodgers can be able to have a field day with it. Yes.

They got unlucky with the Eagles. Yes. I told you they did. The Eagles should have won that game. That's why I like the 49ers in this game. This is a team that they had a bad, week last week last week. They still got the win, which is something great teams do. Now they're playing a team that is incredibly overvalued because they had a big win in prime time. Chad, their defense,

I'm telling you on Green Bay has major issues, buddy, major issues. And the 49ers team still has a great front. And we've seen it with the O line of Green Bay. Their O lines banged up. So too many, too many times people instead of looking at the interior line and different things like that, they just go right to, oh, well, they have Aaron Rogers, Devante Adams, playing a against a really banged up secondary. Just take Green Blade plus three plus three and a half. You're going to cover this every time. It's literally giving me deja vu.

I remember the same exact situation. I think it was two years ago. Green Bay went to the 49ers. I think they lost by 30. Yeah. So it's just a numbers game where it's a prime time game. I know everyone in the world is going to have a money line parlay or whatever tied to Green Bay on the money line, getting a good plus number.

I have to fade them at this number. It's just going to be too much public on a public dog for me to back them. where I just like the number of the 49ers. I want you to promise that the Niners will be part of your picks for convince me on Sunday because I know how much Raybon loves the Packers here. No, I did a prime time game last week. That was my gift to convince me. I love, I want you and Raybond going after each other because here's the other thing.

I'm putting the Packers on our list. We're going to have a conversation about it. 49ers or Packers? The Niners. But I love that you and Raybon are so opposed to each other on this pick. I want to mention three other games, okay? Yeah. Two other games.

I'm sorry, two other games. I'm sick to my stomach saying this out loud. Atlanta Falcons plus three against the Giants at home, or in New Jersey. Because you're O and two trends? Because the Giants are fucking terrible. No, they are. I told you. I liked the Atlanta three and a half.

I thought that was the number. That's the only reason I'm off Atlanta. Okay. This game is three. So I just think, you know, if you took Atlanta three and a half and they get blown out, I wouldn't be upset of myself because you got the best of the number with Atlanta. But me personally,

I'll take the Giants when they get down to two and a half. All right. That's fair. I can be dissuaded otherwise. I don't need to be. Because that's a good trend. They're 0 and their own two against the spread and their own two straight up. So that's why I get why you like Atlanta.

Right. And also, Daniel Jones is terrible at home and he's good on the road. And so the line always gets inflated when he goes back home and plays well on the road. And so that's really it. I'm looking at it situationally, but you will never have to convince me to not bet on the Falcons last game. Because here's one of the thing. I honestly just because we promised the fans, I can't, I can't do it to him again. No. No, you actually made me, you actually said to me last week, if the Falcons don't cover his 12.5 point dogs, we will never have to bet the Falcons again. It's true because I just felt terrible making people do it because I felt that confident in the Atlanta plus 12 and a half. And look out what that got me. What if I threw out at you the Eagles at plus, what are they, plus three and a half right now? Yeah, some books have them plus four. Plus four against the Cowboys. I love the Eagles in that spot.

And I know we don't like to do Monday night football games, but I will tell you this. According to the Action Network, pro projections, the biggest edges between our projections and the spread this week are the Eagles, the Falcons, and the Packers. I can be with you on the Niners over the Packers and avoiding the Giants and the Falcons. But I still love this Eagles team. Yeah, and we love the summer. Again, we talked about the 49ers. They kind of stole one last week before every little thing that could have gone wrong for the Eagles pretty much did. And that's typical in the NFL. It just does not bounce your way every time. And we talk about this line's inflated. It's all way up to four. Dallas should have lost last week to the charges.

kind of stole one there. Now we have an Eagles team that really let down betters. I mean, if you had the three and a half ticket, you're sick to your stomach when all those times, they didn't score in the red zone. So everything you just said is so true, Chad. We take the value in this job and a home, I mean, a road divisional team in the Eagles plus four where they play better in Dallas statistically, they have more wins in Dallas. They do it home against the Cowboys.

We take the Eagles plus four year every time. I feel like a money line around Robben parlay. of Chargers, dolphins, Chargers, Eagles, Dolphins, eagles. That could be fun. That's fun. It's so gross,

but that is fun. It's good, right? All right. I know we want to, I know that at some point we're going to want to get to Survivor, and we're going to do that in a second. We like the Chargers a lot.

We like Miami a lot. I feel like we just decided to throw the Eagles in there, too. No, we talked, we talked that we talked that we talked that we like them on Tuesday. We just said we don't do Monday games, but I think we have to suspend that rule. We have to get, out of our comfort zone. Right now, our favorite five, we're only four and six,

and we've got some bad beats in there. I think we need to have as many games as possible to choose from. If we like this number, we've got to go for it. And if it means I have to stay up a little bit later on Monday night, I'll just deal. All right, my man. So Chargers, Miami and Eagles. Oh, my God. We're walking down a very ugly road.

I love that. Those are three road teams. That's so unlike us. We usually always take home teams. Three road dogs right now. even though every fiber of my being says the Packers, I think the Niners are coming into pole position here. So it's really going to come down to the Niners, Rams, and Vikings,

unless the Bengals go back to three and a half. So we will update everybody Sunday morning. Simon and I will decide what the final five are. We definitely like the Chargers plus six and a half. Miami plus about four, four and a half, the Eagles plus four. And then we will decide between the Rams, Vikings, Niners, and Bengals on Sunday. Monday.

Underline Parley, for those listening, Chargers, Miami, Chargers, Eagles, Miami. Guess what it's time for. It's time for our Survivor Pick. The Survivor Pool Pick of the Week. What do we say? Chad, Chad, Chad. What are we going to do here?

People keep hitting me up saying, how are you guys not taking Carolina? This is by far the easiest game they have left on their schedule. So I want to, even like, I know we don't. don't we won't um i wouldn't hate putting carolina in our contest because the more film i watch on this carolina team and the way they play the run defense they literally shut down the saints who have a top three offensive line and they have alvin kramar that this seriously one of the best run games in all football and the carolina completely shut it down last week now we have this same carolina defense playing against houston that that's their identity they want to run the ball okay that's how they set up

all their plays through the pistol or whatever they're doing they run it this is a nightmare and matchup for this Houston team just because they are playing a rookie quarterback against a team that wants to take away the run game, which is what they want to rely on. So I'm having nightmares because I'm like, in what world do we bet on Sam Donald on Thursday night as an eight-point favorite? But if we can't bet on him on the spread chat, we might have to take him a survivor. All we need of them is do is straight up win, just win. It's hard because it's, again, we like Denver because they're playing against the Jets at home, which makes me feel way more comfortable. But we might be, I'll take Denver again later on where I just don't see where we

can take Carolina again. Again, we could wait and maybe save them for an Atlanta game, but we know that's when Matt Ryan's going to screw us. So that's like one of these things where it's like, I kind of just want to get Carolina out of the way while this team's still hot, still flying so high. And if we get knocked out week three with Carolina on the road, so be it. It feels like it's the smart play this week. You're disgusting. Yesterday, I had so much love for you. We spent so much time together. It was great to connect with you, bond with you, and remind me and you why we are brothers. And then you do something like this, which is so detestable. It's like I don't even know who you are. What if I told you Travis Reed loves it as well? I'm in. All right,

good. And again, if you want to see Travis Reed ranks all the best teams you take in the Survivor contest, and I believe Carolina is his number one team. So it doesn't feel like I'm too crazy with this read. I am going to make Colin when we do our podcast later, I'm going to make him take the Broncos. All right. Smart. Head your bet. No. Yeah.

Make him take the Broncos. Because also because the Broncos feel waste a million times safer, honestly. But I just would love to just get Carolina out of the way. Just like last year we got rid of the Browns and week two. And I felt like a genius because we have to use them again the rest of the year. I feel the same way trying to get rid of the Carolina now. You know what I'm going to do? I'm going to give them a choice.

I like that. I'm going to give them a choice. All right. Let's recap for everybody. our hornets nest walking into a hornet's nest we're looking at the rams over the bucks our money line parleyes that we like correct me if I'm wrong chargers eagles chargers miami miami eagles three for sure chargers miami eagles and we will debate rams vikings niners and bangles plus three and a half and bangles plus three and a half if it gets there man i'll say it again i say it every week fucking love where we are What's not to love? Simon, this has been a great podcast. Seeing you for this long, over 24 hours, is amazing.

Still don't hate me? Love you forever, brother. This has been the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman. He is Simon Hunter. Our producer is Matt Mitchell. Download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Rate, review.

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