The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets for NFL Week 4

Episode Date: October 2, 2021

One of the most fascinating slates of the NFL season is nearly here, and Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, is joined once again by his best friend and professional sports bettor Simon Hunter to whittle down their favorite leans and select their best bets of the week. Beyond just Chiefs and Bucs moneylines, Simon discusses his love for the Jets, the sharp community's love for the Vikings, and so much more. Plus, Chad outlines how he is losing control of his own family in what some listeners may consider a cry for help.And for those looking for more information about betting tips, tricks and terminology, check out the How To page at ActionNetwork.com below!https://www.actionnetwork.com/how-to-bet-on-sports/general/sports-betting-for-beginners-10-things-to-know Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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or upgrade to 24 red roses for $10 more. Go to 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. That's 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. It is Thursday. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. This is the day where me and my companion, my compadry, my BFF, Simon Hunter, Professional Better, go through the games that we,

pinpointed on Tuesday from the NFL slate when we narrowed it down and we start to really hone in on what the five games we love for NFL week four are going to be. We are thinking about how lines have moved. We are thinking about what the market is telling us. We are thinking about injuries. We are re-evaluating. If anything has made us change our mind. We are going to get to all of that. We are going to get to Survivor picks. We are going to get to Moneyline Parlay's. Reminder, I will record my podcast with Colin Cowherd later today. He will give me his picks. I will give him my reaction based on what Simon and I are discussing. Another reminder, convince me Sunday mornings at Action Network HQ, the fastest growing NFL pregame show in the world. You're not going to get fluff. You're not going to get

Hall of Famers talking about what they think about games and how they felt and you're not going to get fluffy features. You're going to get me, Simon, Chris Raybon, Sean Kerner, talking about the size, the totals, the props that we love. That's it. It's stuff that moves the needle for you. Before we get to the podcast, one more thing I want to say. We are getting a lot of new listeners. And as I've said the past few weeks when the show starts, Action Network, we launched in January of 18. We are a company completely focused on providing sports betting news information analysis. We have an app that goes deep with research and data. You can track your picks.

You can follow games in real time, see how your bets are doing. We're getting a lot of new listeners, like I said, and a lot of people who are just discovering betting, right? And so Simon and I, we love the questions. We're getting so many questions about, what about this phrase? How do I bet on this game? What is the model for something like this? I'm new to betting. we try to answer as many as we can.

We are getting flooded. And like I said, we freaking love it. Keep them coming. We are going to keep answering as much as we can. If you are new to betting, actionnetwork.com, go to our how to bet page. There will be a link in the episode description of this podcast. Matt Mitchell, the producer, is going to put it in there. Go to actionnetwork.com.

All the resources you need, everything about educating you to bet, make smart decisions, is at actionnetwork.com. Check it out. We're also going to try to layer in some betting 101 stuff that isn't too obtrusive because this is still a relatively hardcore betting podcast, probably the best betting podcast, smartest betting podcast,

most influential betting podcast in the known sports world. It's a lot to get through, Simon. What's say you, brother? You're such a professional, Chad. And especially this week where you are rooting for a team that has three quarterbacks. man constant pro you are consummate that's what I try to do

we are going to get to that game I know we're going to talk about the bears and the lies the bears at minus two and a half that's going to be ugly one of the things that's really fascinating Simon is you are professional better you lived in Vegas forever when bedding became legal you moved to Jersey

you are connected to that world your professional betting colleagues love to call you after the Tuesday podcast and say, I agree with you on this take. I don't agree with you on this take. You're crazy. Sometimes it gets in your head and makes you rethink things. And then it influences what we do on Thursday. And then on Sunday, we got a new segment.

I want to know sharp calls that Simon Hunter has gotten since Tuesday. Hello. Who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you do with? Usually these people call me up and they'll say, hey, you're really missing here big on certain games. It's a lot of the agreement this week.

I think a lot of the guys love our picks this week. They love the Vikings. I had multiple guys reach out to me about that. They love the Vikings. They love that number. And I had a bunch of people reach out about the Jets. The Jets might be the sharp trap of the week. I think everyone's coming in on them so heavy just because the news has come out now that Julio and A.J. Brown might not be playing because they both have hamstring injuries, which, again, that greatly, greatly bent.

benefits this Jets team that now they only have to focus on Derek Henry. So like I think last week, the most hate I got was just about our Buffalo pick. A lot of professionals felt very strong and taking that seven and a half to eight and a half number with Washington. And I just couldn't do it. We luckily stayed away all together from that game. And I turned out I was right. But what about Seattle?

So that was my only hate I really got pushback from other professionals. I think they're just really down the Seahawks. They think this team has major, major issues where I just don't see it that way. I think they, you know, they laid an egg against Tennessee, letting them come back when they were up 15 in the fourth quarter at home. And then Minnesota was a schedule at loss. We talked about that. There was no, no world Zimmer was going to lose three straight games in his first game at home. So I love the Seahawks.

I love the Seahawks plus three. I'm on their money line as well. It just have some pause people. This is going to be probably one the chalkiest dogs of the week. Them in the lines are the two biggest chalky dogs. The Seahawks are 100%. 71% of the bets on Seattle right now, by the way, Lions, 73%. So you're 100% of the tickets to you on the Sealks money line.

So just be careful. Jesus. As they say in the Great Lakes, oh, geez. Like that's what the Eagles were on Monday night. I think they're 85 or 87% of the money line bets. And we saw what happened there. Last week was a really chalky week. Like we talked about that already.

A lot of the parlays, a lot of the teasers, everything kind of hit. So I'm expecting a really, really, really, weird, wacky week this upcoming week, even though my favorite teaser, I mean, it's the chalkiest teaser I'll do all year, the chiefs and the buccaneers, but I just can't see either of these teams losing their game. So I've had a couple of people hit me up, not my professionals, but people on Twitter saying all my friends are betting the same thing, even though I don't listen to the show or whatever they're saying. And I just said to them, I'm with them. It's chalky, but in what world does Brady lose this game against the Buccaneers? And in what world does Andy Reid lose to his formal

team and lose three in a row. I just, it's kind of like a perfect storm. These things set up so nicely where if the chiefs were at home against the Eagles, this line would probably be 10 or 11. If the Buccaneers were home against the Patriots, this line would probably be again, 10 or 11. But it's not. They're on the road, so you're getting a really nice discount on these lines. So I'm all in on these chalky, all these chalky teasers this week, Chad. Well, we're going to get to some money line parles as well. Probably one of those pairings will be the Jets and the Vikings. There are some pretty wicked money lines to look at and we're going to get to it. I just got a little distracted. I got to say because my fucking kid is a month into college, as you know, at Drexel. My wife and I texted him

two days ago and said, hey, let's jump on the phone. It's been a few days since we spoke. Did it respond for 48 hours? My wife was like, what the fuck is up with this kid? We know he's a lot. and because we're tracking him on like the Where Are You Apps in, you know, and our phones, he just texted us and said, I may be free on Sunday. My child arrived just the other day. He came to the world in the usual way, but there were planes to catch and bills to pay. He learned to walk while I was away, and he was talking for I knew it. And as he grew, he'd say, I'm going to be like you, Dad. You know I'm going to be like you.

And the cat's in the cradle and the shoes. What the fuck, dude? You're telling me you can't find time for five days to talk to your parents. Give them a little taste of freedom. Now they're big time. This experiment of him going to college of letting these children leave has gone completely off the rails. I can't fucking believe this. My wife was like so excited that he took it.

I bet. Literally already gave it a heart emoji. Like, great, we'll talk to you Sunday. And I didn't want to respond while you and I are talking because I want to concentrate in what you're saying. What I want to say is, are you fucking kidding me? Sunday, you'll fucking call us right now. Yeah, that's an unreal response.

Jesus Christ, these fucking kids. All right. Let's get to it. We got a whole bunch of games that we had squared that we were going to want to carry over from the weekend. Some of them from Tuesday. Some of them still look really good. some of them are looking better than I thought they did before.

Let's start with the Giants, plus seven and a half versus the Saints. You and I immediately pinpointed this game on Tuesday. Stucky and Chris Raybond on the Action Network podcast went through this game. They loved this game as well. And actually, they loved it for a lot of the reasons that you often love it, which was less about the system plays that sometimes people look at and say, all right, this team is so-and-so against the spread the last 18 years. but really about what they're seeing on the field, specifically about the Saints.

I am more convinced ever that the Giants are the right side at plus seven and a half. And that's the scary part. A lot of books have dropped it down to seven. We want that seven and a half. We need that hook there. It's an interesting game. A lot of people have also reached out to me about this game about should we do this for our survivor pick and just get the Saints out of the way.

That, yeah, that's all I thought. I felt a little scared of this one. I don't know if I would do the Saints just in the fact that Winston is begging, begging to have a meltdown game. So a little scary with this giant's defense, a couple injuries to that side of the ball. But we talked about it. The Giants just match up well with the Saints team. Danny Dimes, he just plays better on the road indoors with Seekwan.

This is just a good matchup for this Giants team. So if it's seven and a half is our best five, I would take it, but at seven, it likely wouldn't make the cut for me. What about seven just as a bet? Yeah, yeah, I would bet at seven. Even though, again, you've missed the best number. This thing open at nine and a half. Now it's all way down to seven.

The professionals coming heavy on it because I'm not sure what the splits are in action, but I saw it yesterday. I think it was 77% to 23% the ticket split. So, or maybe that was the money split. So definitely the Saints are a very public team. and the lines moved against it, where the money's coming in on the Saints and the tickets are coming on the Saints,

and the Lions going against it, always scary if you're a Saints backer. So that's giving me a little bit more confidence with the Giants knowing that a lot of sharp money is coming in on the Giants. Yeah, it's 55%. I'm glad you brought it up. Good, good connection.

Way to Pimp. 55% of the bets on the Saints, 70% of the money on the Giants. So it is definitely a pros Joe's game. What's fascinated to me is, you know, the Saints, they beat up on the Packers. We didn't really know what that was going to be. That could have been an anomaly, whatever the case. Yeah, we can toss out.

You know, and then their game against New England was not impressive. James had a heave-ho blind. I'm going to throw it up. Got lucky touchdown. They got a pick six. They were outgained. This is a team that I think is in trouble. And not in trouble.

That's overstating it. But it isn't a team that I think is as good as their record reflects and as public perception reflects. So yes, I agree with you. The Giants will continue to be one of the teams we look at. I think they're going to have to end up being in a money line parlay with somebody. That's why I wouldn't take the Saints in a Survivor. I got a pretty good beat in who I want our Survivor team to be. You already know?

Yeah. Okay. We can talk about that at the end. Yeah, we will. All right, here's an ugly one, and you just mentioned it. Eagles plus seven and half against the Chiefs. The Chiefs, like, let me just set it up. Let me set it up, okay?

You talk a little bit about the Chiefs and the teaser potential. They continue to not cover. They continue to be overvalued. they continue to be a team that is going to get public money. More so this week when you're talking about an Eagles team that just got decimated by the Cowboys on Monday night. But I don't want to take the Eagles here. I get it. But as anyone listen to this, you have to take, if you have seven and a half in your pickpoles or whatever, you have to take the Eagles.

This is everything about this is why we fade the Chiefs. They always skip back door. This is a typical backdoor game. They don't have their run game to melt the clock away. Mahomas is going to be taking deep shots all night. So again, if this game is, you know, the Chiefs are up 24 to 10 or 21 to 10, I honestly will feel comfortable when Hertz has a ball thinking I'll be able to get a backdoor. But for this in our contest, maybe we'll take the week off because like you just said,

holy hell, are the Chiefs overdue to cover a game? One in 11, ATS, their last 12th. They are so overdue. So I've made all my money on fading them, especially early on in the season. I'm cool with taking a week off in our contest and not going against them. So I will be on the Eagles, but I will not be putting this in our contest.

It's an interesting question about when, when do the sort of patterns start to be things that you fade versus things that you bank on? last this year i read this brandon anderson one of the writers at action does an amazing story every week i love it to become invalid like a must read for me it's sort of his leans or bets for every single game sometimes it's a pass sometimes it's a it's a bet sometimes it's a wait until the number moves which the market is showing it may he made or note at the top of the column this week that uh Short underdogs are 11 of three or more.

So three or less are 11 and five against the spread this year. And they've won outright in all 11 games. So like the Chiefs, not covering ever, like short underdogs continuing to cover and win, when do we start fading patterns like that? I mean, again, that's because of line movement. Like last week, we were on the. Saints, the Saints got bet down from three and a half to two and a half. So they fit that

description. The Vikings fit that description last week. The Rams do. So yeah, it's all dependent on the game. For this game, I wouldn't put too much into that. Again, we're going to talk about coming up. That's more of like the Tennessee Jets thing where I'm looking at, where this line's moved so much that this team is so overvalued. You're getting good value on the Jets. where the Eagles, this line feels fair. Siriani might be an awful head coach, and Jalen Hurts might be a bad quarterback. So the movement on this line feels very fair to this Eagles team where this is a must win, a must win for a Chief's team that I've been to three straight or two straight Super Bowl.

So it's not so much I'm fading the trend. Like I am betting the Eagles, but like we talked about, I have a lot of money invested in the Chiefs in a money line and teaser. So I'm a big believer, the Chiefs got to win this Sunday. All right, Panthers plus four and a half against the Cowboys. This was our Simon says bet, like the Bengals of the week before. On Tuesday, you Simon says this, which means that we must bet it.

I did bet it at four and a half. I also bet a little bit of a taste half a unit on the Panthers money line. The Panthers secondary is decimated. Christian McCaffrey isn't playing. On the field, it makes me nervous as a system, I feel great about it. I think I looked it up in BetLabs, which is like the superpower database that Action Network has, that has data points for millions and millions of betting data points going back to 2003. Underdogs

Underdogs against the team that just played a Monday night football wined a 55% click since 2003. So like the precedent and the side feel right for Caroline. I'm a little worried about our pick though. Yeah.

Again, Chad, talk about BetLabs. That's one of my favorite companies that Action bought and own and give out data from. So it's worth, if you buy the subscription to Action. work you get bed labs which again i think it's worth the money it's it's just such a useful tool especially if you're into trends um i love it this one is interesting where we talk about four and a half

i'm seeing it down to three and a half for a lot of books um i know it's still plus four a fan duel which is a great great value it's a pro pro game you you you fade the cowboys off a big prime time win a primetime blowout which is even more um well i mean just looking the splits here i think it's about 76% of the money is on right now on the, or sorry, tickets is on the Cowboys. It's just going to be a public game. The public's going to be feeling good.

They won a lot of money on the Cowboys last week. We're going to come in heavy on them again. Carolina, like you just said, they have a lot of injuries. They actually just made a trade for a cornerback from the Jaguar. So, you know,

I, uh, I just love this number and I love the under in this game because it just feels like both these defenses are a little underrated. And again, I think Dak is playing great, playing out of his mind. That O line does have some major issues. And when we saw that sack in the end zone last week, they obviously bounced back from it because the Eagles really couldn't get pressure the rest of the game.

But this Carolina D line and, you know, secondary is much better than the Eagles. So I just think to say great value and bounce back spot for anyone that wants to to fade the Cowboys because Cowboys are good. But against a team right now that's undefeated, this just feels like a lot. of points for the Cowboys to be favored by. So we'll take that hook with a three and a half four. Yeah, I think that the other things that go in the Panthers favor, they're very well coached. They are a better coached team than the Cowboys.

Mike McCarthy, you can put this team, make this an 11, 12 win team this year. You're still not going to convince me. He's a very good coach. And you said it about the Panthers defense. A couple of things that I looked up myself, because Thursday mornings are my big. pod prep day. Carolina Panthers, fewest rushing yards per carry allowed.

Fourth, fewest passing yards per attempt allowed. What that tells me is that they are putting teams in second and long, third and long scenarios, which keeps them in games, gets them possessions, and puts them in sort of in advantageous positions.

No, they play a unique style of defense where the guy brought a college scheme up to the NFL that's not really used by many DC coordinators. And it's pretty much like a wide three front, but it's not. And it's just one of these where they kind of make it looks like there's big holes that run through and they just eat it up with their fast linebackers. So I think it'll be a long day for the running backs of the Cowboys. I think we love the Panthers and the Giants right now. Yeah, I mean, it's a high percentage on that both their money lines and around Robin. Yeah, no. All right.

The Vikings on Tuesday, this is a big move. On Tuesday, this game was at two and a half. You mentioned off the top, a lot of wise guys calling you right now about this game. The line has moved. Let's see. Maybe a point. Maybe it's gone down to one and a half in some place. places. Why do people like the Vikings so much here?

I think a lot of people just think the Bears are overvalued. I mean, the Bears. The Cleveland's overvalued. Now they beat the Bears in Houston and back-to-back weeks at home. And the Vikings have just had a really tough schedule to start the year. I mean, they literally played in Cincinnati. And, you know, we can say what we won about that game. They didn't really wake up until the fourth quarter. And they came away back to force overtime.

Lost on our last play on a missed field goal against the Cardinals. and they came home, they just beat up, you know, the Seahawks. And, you know, I do like this Cleveland team for sure. We talked about how we really thought their defense has improved. But man, when they played Houston, Houston was running the ball all over Cleveland. I mean, they were literally dominated them, Houston. So we got an even better run-skeme team here in Minnesota with better talent. I believe Dalvin Cook will be back for this game as well.

Cleveland's now out their top cornerback. And they're playing against Adam Phelan and Jefferson. I told people on Tuesday you put Vikings in every teaser and you're going to bet this number. So this is a one of the few I guarantee will be one of our five. Well, well, we're guaranteeing right now three games. We're guaranteeing the Giants, the Panthers and the Vikings. Well, the Giants only guarantee if it's seven and a half. I don't know if it is yet, but at seven I wouldn't, wouldn't lock that one in.

All right. All right. All right. By the way, on the other communication happening right, Um, my wife has just completely, uh, gone mush on my kid. Uh, she just asked him, uh, if he was happy. If he, if he was still happy, he said, yep. She said, does that mean you don't want to come home and snuggle us? He just wrote back, I don't think so. So she's giving up all authority and all power in this negotiation and I'm going to have to come in after this podcast and like, lay down the law and be like,

fuck her. We're talking in five minutes. The mother's love, man. The bird has left the nest. That's what she, she just can't help herself. Jesus Christ, I'm losing all control over here. And now a word from our friends at Fanduel. After 20 years on the same sideline, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick meet this weekend as opponents. It's the greatest of all-time QB against the greatest of all-time head coach. And you can be a part of the epic showdown with unbelievable odds at Fanduel's sportsbook. Right now, you can be a part of all-time. customers can win $125 on a $5 bet if either team scores a touchdown. That's right.

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in Arizona. Let's get back to it. Can we talk about the Chicago Bears? Things have gone off the rails there. Like they have really, number one, number one, the team has bought a plot of land in the town of Arlington Heights, not too far from where I grew up.

I grew up in Highland Park. Arlington Heights is west of Highland Park. I'm in college. A lot of my buddies grew up in Arlington Heights, lived with a buddy from Arlington Heights. that's in the suburbs. It's not downtown. Soldier Field.

The Bears been playing there since 1971. They've always been a downtown team. The picturesque views, television, skyline behind Soldier Field. It's amazing. The team may move. The team has a coach that everyone seems to have lost faith in. The meme that I have gotten 75 times from my buddy Matt to my kid, in the middle of high school, by the way, he's sending me memes.

So what does that tell you about how much he's paying it? attention in school, but whatever, sending me a meme that basically says Mitch Trubisky should be in the Hall of Fame because of how well he did with his team in spite of Matt Nagy. And yet I know we're going to want to bet on the Bears at minus two and a half this week. I am, because of everything you just talked about, I've actually pulled back a little where I'm not, I was going to bet a lot, especially the way this line was moving down from three to minus two and a half. They might be the most dramatic drama-filled team right now in the NFL. Nagy kind of was weird at the press conference.

say if he gave up coaching duties to like his offensive coordinator. He wouldn't name a quarterback, even though Fields has a cast or a brace on his stamp, like on his hand or his thumb. And Andy Dalton, he just came back to practice. So it seems like it might end up being Nick Foles against behind that O line. It's a little terrifying. I don't know what to do, Chad. I felt really confident about this team on Tuesday because it was going to be a really

a nice number with this defense at home, but this team might already lost faith in their head coach. And that's a scary position to be in where Detroit, there's a few teams that try harder that, no, they're not good. And that's what's so scary about this matchup. I thought this was going to be a really nice spot for Chicago, especially after the way Detroit just lost. But it's giving me pause now. So I am on the Bears, but this will not be one of our five. There's no, no chance this will be one of No, I agree with you. This Detroit team, look, and we talked about this on Tuesday, we made a lot of fun of Dan Campbell for the biting the kneecaps. So this team's Detroit, we're going to kick you in the teeth. And when you punches, we're going to smile at you. And when you knock us down, we're going to get up. And on the way up, we're going to bite a kneecap off. All right. We're going to take your other kneecap. Before long, where are they going to be the last one standing? We made a lot of fun of Jared Gough for saying, why not us? The truth is, this team plays like they believe.

And it's hard to knock that. They're really a bad half against the Niners and a bad half against the Packers. That's what people were potentially remembering when they were against them against the Ravens last week. I wasn't. Somebody else was. It's hard to knock this team right now, which might be exactly why you bet the Bears. basically. It's like the, this will never even more love for the lines in the public eye than right now. So yeah, I think that's why I would have to pass on this game entirely.

Yeah. All right. Then we got to talk about this is the game that's lighting everybody up. The Jets plus seven, plus seven and a half against the Titans, a lot of reasons to like the Jets. There are public perception reasons to like the Jets. There are on-field injuries. reasons to like the Jets. There is over inflation. Give me whatever you want. But I'm telling you right now, I've already bet the Jets.

I've already bet the Jets on the money line. I've already got a Jets, Panthers money line parlay going. I'll be a nice payday if that hits. Right. Yeah, people got a little weird or a little testy about last week. I was joking around, people. If I tell you to bet a game, there is always a reason. I'm not just saying it to say it. We like this match for plenty of reasons, but the biggest one is

what happened last year? The Browns came to play the Jets were even worse and worse coach last year, and they had no wire receivers. And we're looking at the same exact position here with Tennessee. Tennessee is going to be without A.J. Brown, and they're going to be without Julio. Their top two receivers. Again, I like Derek Henry. Obviously, this guy is by far the best running back in football. But now it's given the Jets an edge where it's okay, okay. Now we just had to take away the run and we'll just let Tannehill beat us with all these backups. And I don't know if you watch Tain Hill this year. He doesn't look good. He doesn't look right. And this is too many points for a team. Again, it was what? The look at it was three and a half, I believe. And now it's all, it went all up to

seven and a half. The Jets are bad. And I know they just lost their safety to another major major injury. But at the same time, this Jets team has a lot of good. Their defense is actually better than people think it is. Zach Wilson has been playing sloppy and made mistakes, but he's not going to keep being this bad. I mean, he can't. Honestly, he cannot stay this bad. He has to improve.

So just based off all of this with the Tennessee's horrible defense, this is by far the easiest defense that Jets have played this season, we have to take the Jets here. We have to take the seven and a half every time you take this number. Such a trap game for Tennessee, too. It's rare where you get a team that just beats their division rival so big. like they did last week where they knew they kind of got away with one of the Colts there last week. Now they're feeling really good all week, traveling up to New York, playing a team.

I don't think they're going to take serious in the Jets because they have got awful. And we're getting a great number. Unless we have a meltdown like we did last week with the Jaguars, you take this number every time. You're going to cover most of the time. So like you just said, I will be betting the Jets. I'll be taking the Jets money line. Nothing's changed. If anything, I'm upset, I thought I was going up to 8 for us, but the pros have come in now.

I hit it down to 7. So still would take the seven people, but if you can find a book with seven and a half, you take that seven and a half. This is essentially a buying at the bottom of the market opportunity. That's what we're doing. The very bottom. The very bottom. Until the jets get blown out this week and next week will be the very, very bottom for the New York Jets. But it's like them, the Eagles and the Patriots, they're all these teams that are going to be getting.

you know, no money bet on them this week. The bookmakers know, at least one of these guys are going to win outright. Like, this is just how the NFL works. Something weird is going to happen. Again, nothing makes sense in this sport. Like, we talk all the time. My favorite stat last year was the Colts that week won against the Jaguars. They never punted and they had zero turnovers and they still lost the game against the Jaguars.

So it's like weird shit's just going to happen. It's just that's how football is. And that's what we're banking on here where. too much, too much values being blown up on a team to move at four points where the Tennessee Titans shouldn't have moved that line four points off their win last week. So that's why we do a value based job. It makes you feel less guilty when you feel like an idiot bet on the Jaguars last week. That's how I feel with the Jets this week. It's a professional line. You have to bet this number every time. By the way, the team getting the most money by far, the bucks, they're like

96% of the tickets right now coming in on the bucks. 91% of the bucks. percent of the money, which is why that's an interesting game because it opened at five. And we're skipping ahead. We're not going to have this game in our contest and we're not going to bet it. We're not going to include it. It's only moved up to seven. Like can you explain a little bit about why you think with everything that's happening, all these sentiment on the bucks, like the lines only moved about a point and a half.

And someone got fired for that for that for that line. being hung at five and a half. That was an awful, awful line to hang because even the professionals hammered that line Sunday night. Like I told you, I threw that in all my teasers, them and the Chiefs. That was just a bad number. So seven, I told people, I'm going to take the pictures at seven, seven and a half. Whatever number they end up at, I will be taking that Sunday night. Because just the simple fact, the Buck's secondary just isn't good enough to really close these games. I know they did with Atlanta. Those are two pick sixes that really ended that game. I just think the Buccaneers were the way they're constructed right now,

they're always going to have a little bit of hope for a backdoor team. But we're like you just said, there's no chance for putting this in. This is just a professional game where if I have this line at six and a half, I have to bet it now that it's at seven. So not one of my five best, but it feels like a gift, I should say, from the sports books. And it's rare they give gifts. Usually a gift ends up being a trap.

But no one, I don't think any fan in the world can see Brady losing this game, especially the talent discrepancy where Belliichick, you can say all we want that this guy is such a great coach. He hasn't really done much since Tommy's left. And this year, people are really hyping up this Patriots team, taking their overwind tolls and all this other stuff. This just looks like a team that doesn't really have that much talent. So for me, it feels pretty comfortable having the Buccaneers and a lot of money

line parlays and teasers where normally I'd be scared of this kind of game where it's like this is a major trap. But Brady breaks all the rules. And we've talked about that all the time. This man always breaks these rules. So I feel a little piece of mind here, taking the Buccaneers money on. What do you mean someone got fired for hanging a five and a half? A bookmaker.

Somewhere somewhere in the mountains of Switzerland where I think the lines are paid. I got fired because that was a bad line. Five and a half. Like how did they not know the public was going to hammer this line? So that was a bad number to hang. All right. Another game we wrote down Steelers

Packers Steelers is big dogs Rob Ra, Ra Mike What? Rob Ra Mike. A rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot. We win the game with this crew of bodies right here today.

Bring your own game today. Woo! How do we not go every Listen, listen, I know you laugh at the systems but I'm telling you right now I did listen to Stucky and Raybon in the Action Network podcast this morning.

And I knew I listened specifically for this game because of, I knew this game was on our list. Let me give you some stats that they rattled off. So I'm blatantly stealing here. But it's a rah-rah mic moment. I don't want to hear about the labor pains, man. Deliver the damn baby. Since 2003, as a road dog against winning teams,

no coach has covered more than Mike Tomlin. As a road dog period, he's won outright at a 60% clip. As a road dog against opponents with the same record or better, he covers it an 80% clip. Plus, you say yourself, this game should be like four and a half. So how are we not loving the Steelers this week?

I know. Honestly, it's only because we have other ugly dogs that we like better. But again, this is a pro game. People like, Chad just read you all those stats. You bet you, this is why you always bet it. You have to go, you have to think long-term investment, and that's what this is. It's a long-term investment, but Rathesburg is terrible. Their defense is banged up. Aaron Rogers is playing out of his mind. Again, they're not going to cover this spread. It's just doesn't make sense. That's why I love betting football. Like, I can see these lines. Like, you just talked about it. It's, the minute

I saw this line, I knew I was going to be on Pittsburgh just because it was inflated so much. Those statutes just read makes me feel so much more comfortable where it's like Tomlin loves these positions. He loves getting the guys up for these kind of games. So I like it way better at seven. That's the reason we probably wouldn't end up with it our five because it's down to six and a half, which six and a half is still a key number. Miss extra points, weird numbers too because teams usually go for two now more often than you used to. So we like the six and a half, but it's our best five. know. It's, it's, it's a little scary where it's like, okay, come Sunday, I know I mean you're going to be like, all right, what are we doing? Steers are the Jets. And we're going to

pick one of these ugly dogs. So it's, it usually gives me more comfort taking the home dog in this kind of situation. Me too, me too. And I know on Sunday consciously, I'm going to be thinking, what are the games we're missing? What are the games we're missing? I'm going to forget about it. And then Sunday at about 3.30, I will text you and I will say, how the fuck did we not put this in the five. We liked it on Tuesday. We talked about it on Thursday and Sunday morning. We race through it after we do convince me. I will call you. We will go through our five and we will forget a game that we loved. I don't know how we do this. Every single fucking week we do this. All right. We're still going to be on the Steelers as a bet. I'm probably going to take a little bit

of the Steelers money line. They will probably be in a money line parlay. No, I'm not. I would not recommend that you're not you're giving me a look i'm taking it out it's not going to happen it's a cover game this i just don't see a situation where they can win this one rah rah mike it's rob r mike that's how they're going to win because rah rah mic doesn't more than anybody else in the history of football uh are we still thinking about the broncos that line that line um has moved we thought that line uh you can get either team depending on the book as an underdog right now. So what are we thinking?

Big ball is better the week, Chad. Big ball! Yeah, apparently the public does not care of that Lamar might be kind of hurt and the Ravens are missing a ton of key positions because they're coming in heavy on them. We're kind of on an island here. This is one of the other games.

A lot of professionals reach out to me about they love. We all love Denver. We all love them a mile high. It was the same reason last week we talked about it. I like Denver, even though they were minus 10. And it's just a mile high effect. They always play better at home. That's just a big advantage where you get one big play from the other team.

They're sucking oxygen on the sideline. So we love Denver. This is just a great matchup for them. Their D-line is a perfect D-line to take down Lamar and his running style. Maybe the only guy on that D-line he can outrun is Von Miller, but probably not. Von Miller still got it. So I just like the matchup. And, you know, like Chad said, we were hoping to get Denver as a dog here.

I don't think it's going to move that way for us. I think too many professionals are coming in on Denver, but we'll take the number. I just want to have them in teasers because I don't really like crossing the zero. Sometimes I will, but in this situation, I feel like you either just take them the one straight up or you stay away. All right. Last game we had circled. I'm excited that we're on the same page on that one. Raiders and chargers.

So this game is sort of waffling three, three and a half, three, three and a half. even at three and a half. I know it's a divisional game, two good teams, three is the right side. It could be a field goal game. The Chargers just feel like a much better team to me. I continue to think that the Raiders are inflated,

that they're not as good as they've played. They've had a couple of good breaks. I'm just not in on the Raiders. I'm just not in. It's mainly Derek Corp playing out of his mind. Yeah, right? Like if this guy is, just on another level right now. So I'm right there with you. My favorite matchup last week was

Darwin James versus Kelsey. Kelsey kind of dominated him. You guess so we ended up winning, the Chargers. So I think we have the same thing here where I gave out early in the year. I gave him my favorite rookie the year. As Asante Samuel Jr., I think he was 40 to 1 to win rookie the year. He's now down to 10 to 1. He's got two picks. He intercepted Dak and he intercepted Mahomes. love him too as the cover corner. So a lot of signs just point to the Chargers, man, was shut down, not car completely, but enough where, you know,

this line at minus three and a half was a little scary to take the Chargers. Now it's down to three. Like Chad just said, I love the Chargers. Vegas, I don't know what the exact money is going to be in the actual city of Vegas, but I guarantee it's going to be 70, 80% of the money is going to be on the Raiders.

It's going to be a little different across the country. But, man, is this, that city really embrace? race that team. So I think we're going to learn pretty quick here. We like to take Vegas at home and we like to kind of fade them on the road where I know people are going to go back to that Pittsburgh game. That was just such a letdown game by Pittsburgh after being Buffalo. Like we kind of know now what Pittsburgh kind of is where, you know, you can say what you want about this Oakland team. I don't know. There are still major holes and major weaknesses on this team. So I like in this matchup a divisional game, you take the charges here at home against the team. And, you know,

their car that's just playing way above what they really are. I like how you to continue to call them Oakland. I can't help it. In Spain with the Chargers, I call it San Diego Chargers all the time too. I'm sorry, buddy. I'm just an old soul. I will say I love the Raiders helmets.

I just love them. Yeah, my favorite clips is on NFL films. They're talking about the autumn wins. And that's just the Oakland Raider helmet comes on the screen. It's just a beautiful. So good. The Autumn Win is a Raider, pillaging just for fun. He'll knock you around and upside down and laugh when he's conquered and won.

All right. These are the teams that we're thinking about right now. I think we feel pretty good about him. Panthers, Vikings, jets. Then on the fence right now, depending on the numbers we can get, Giants, Steelers, Denver Chargers. So right now, we're going to choose five from, we're going to choose two from those remaining four giant Steelers Denver Chargers are we feeling good about that?

And we're probably going to have Denver in because that's my big ball is better of the week. Most likely. Big balls, better the week. We're on a nice little heated with the big balls better the week. So we went to keep that long going.

So basically we've chosen four in the Panthers, Vikes, jets, and Denver. I like that we might have a little bit of a favorite. I'm kind of falling in love with the chargers too, but we're o and one on Monday nights, though. It's true. It's true. That is true.

All right. If we're doing a money line parlay, which teams are we putting in our money line parlay? And I noted, I already have the Jets and the Panthers in a money line parlay. If we're adding it for a round Robin, who are we putting in there? Yep. Like Panthers, like Minnesota, I have a couple with the Giants in there. I have a decent amount with the Jets in there. I don't know why I'm so all in on the Jets, but I am. I was going to put the lines in there. I just can't do it. as our no no no no no i know that they probably that's a good that's a good number like you just talk about the short home the short road dogs have been uh winning outright so that that's

non-bear fans out there this this is a good one to put in maybe as a fifth leg all right we got our big balls we got our final five kind of we got our money line probably i'm a survivor the survivor pool pick of the week bangles done yeah get your pick in now if someone doesn't hear this until tomorrow or Saturday. What's their backup? I know our, I know our guy Reid. He likes the saints as a sneaky play. But me and you talk about we like the Giants as an outright underdog winner. So if you're boring and you just want to play an extra safe like I usually do, I'll have a couple, you know, a couple people reach out to me. They just like Buffalo. Yeah. Yeah. No one's going to stop you there. That's an easy safe play. I'd just rather save Buffalo because they play the Jets twice.

So we're doing a little risky here, taking the Thursday 19, but Bengals just look like world beaters. Jaguars are a complete train wreck. The Jaguars are made up on the backdoor this game, but I just can't see them winning it. So I'm going to put the Bengals in for our survivor pick. Me too. This has been the favorites from the volume podcast network for my BFF Simon Hunter. I am Chad Millman. Catch us talking about all the games, all the sides, all the props, all the totals on Sunday morning.

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