The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets for NFL Week 6

Episode Date: October 17, 2021

An NFL slate loaded with potential awaits Chad Millman and Simon Hunter of the Action Network, as they narrow down their favorite picks for Week 6, giving the Eagles, Browns and even the disrupted Raiders long, longing glances. Together they select a short list of teams they'll be backing on Sunday, plus underdog moneylines they like, survivor pool picks, and so much more. Plus, will the Bills make Simon want to shout on Monday night? Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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It is Thursday. I am joined by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Mr. Simon Hunter. What up, brother? Chad. Excited for tonight, buddy. I've been drinking since I woke up this morning. Getting ready, head over to Jettro after the show's done

and continue tailgain before this Eagles, Tampa Bay kickoff. Listen, even without a game, that's just another Thursday in Philadelphia and South Jersey. We all know that. We got a lot to talk about because as everybody knows, on Tuesday, we go over the entire slate. We start pinpointing the games and the numbers that we love. On today's show, we will narrow it down, and we will try to pick six, seven games that we love, and out of those six or seven, we will choose the five best. We will share those on Sunday via our various avenues, whether it's Twitter, whether it's following us in the free and award-winning Action Network app. We will also, today, pinpoint the money line parlay we love.

we will settle on a survivor pick. We will remind people that you can watch convince me with me and Simon Hunter, Sean Croner, Chris Rabon, Samantha Providey on Fantasy and Darren Ravel on Market News on Sunday mornings, 11 a.m. Eastern at Action Network H.Q. A lot of what we're discussing today will be refined, narrowed down. This is always the really fun podcast for me because, as you know, I love my Thursday mornings. I get my espresso. I get my green tea matcha. Get my apples of peanut butter.

I settle in. I do my research. Get ready for the day. Get ready for the podcasts. You're too old. You're just an old man. Before we get to all that, we do the podcasts on Tuesday.

We do it on Thursday. Between Tuesday and Thursday, lines move, injury reports get updated. Markets change. And you get calls from your wise guy buddies. criticizing or supporting some of our decisions. Let's get there some sharp calls.

Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you doing? Yeah, luckily they hate wasn't as strong as it was last week. I wouldn't say it wasn't there. I had a couple guys immediately calling me up Tuesday night and just said, like, what are you guys thinking here taking this Bill's team on the road against the Tennessee Titans?

But that was expected. I knew professionals are going to love that Tennessee tight number. That's just a classic primetime home dog. I'm almost always on that position. But again, I just love this matchup for this Bill's team. So they didn't move me too much with that conversation. I think they finally talked me off this Jaguars team, Chad. Really?

Yeah. I still love the three and a half, but it's down to three now at Fandul. You know, I might maybe I am betting too much with my head thinking that I have this number at one, it's three and a half, I think I'm getting great value. I have to take a step back. Like these guys keep saying to me, they're like, how can you trust Irvin Meyer? Like that cover they had against the Bengals, any kind of coach that is just half a brain wins that game they had against the Bengals.

And he blew that game. So I was coming into this weekend, I was going to make that one of my bigger bets. Now that's probably not going to be my top 15, like, bet, size. and totals that I even hit this week. So I'm kind of walking back off the Jags after having a couple of conversations. And the last one was you wanted me to find out more about this Arizona Cardinals game. I mean, Matt Mitch can cut this out. I don't know if I'm talking out of school, but a guy who works in the business with the last name Sharp, which is a made-up last name, apparently his group is the one that hit that Arizona Cardinals line. They hit it Sunday night.

They hit it again Monday. And now they're buying back. They bought back at two and a half because I think they realized they kind of made an error here where Arizona's kind of had some injuries come out lately. Their center is out of the game now. The weather isn't looking ideal for the playing style of this Cardinals team. So apparently they bought out of their position. They're hitting back to their side on the Browns. I only bought more stock in this Browns team at two and a half. So I'm all in on the Browns. That's now that it's moved the other way back to three, I'm pretty sure me and Chad are going to lock this one as our best five. We just love this number. I, I'm interested to see where it ends up because of what weather might come in on Sunday.

But if you could still get two and a half of your book when you hear this, please, please take this Brown's number. I love this Browns, this Browns number the whole week. Yeah. And we're going to dig, we're going to dig deeper into that. We're not going to talk much more about the Jags because I think that's really interesting. But does that mean that all of a sudden, like, have you been convinced that you're on the dolphins? Or have you just been convinced this is a game in which you're not going to win. best much. Yeah, I'll wait and see what's up with Tua. That's like, again, that was one of my

biggest whiffs of the preseason. I was all in on Miami and Tua. I really thought he was going to take the next step. And he hasn't. And that division is just looking incredibly weak. So that was one of those chain reactions here where I'll probably be in on Miami. But yeah, like my, my biggest bet right now, we can talk about this stuff is, is the Eagles by far plus seven. I hit that number multiple times, a bunch of different books. Dane Duel's moved down at six and a half. I still like it at six and a half. I had this at four and a half.

So this is, again, I don't want to give it. I didn't give it up to my clients as one of my four biggest bets of the year. But it's getting up there at this point. Like, I've just hit this number so many times now. And if it wasn't a Thursday night game, this would be a no-brainer, huge bet for me. But because it is Thursday night, and we've just seen it time and time again, just these big favorites on Thursday night end up covering for some reason. It's the reason I'm having any type of pause,

but I do think this is a bad number in this Tampa Bay Eagles game. Should we be considering it right now for one of our five? Should we pull the trigger on a Thursday game? I mean, I wanted to beg you for it, but I feel like I was worried about you being like, this is a Homer pick, but I promise you it isn't. Like, this is truly a value-based pick.

Well, listen, I don't think it's a Homer pick at all. Everybody is loving the Eagles in this spot. If I can think about like one area where I am finding consistent consensus. It is on the Eagles as underdogs. And you're right. This number's been hit pretty hard across the board. I'm looking at the numbers right now.

It's plus six and a half. And what's interesting is the money, the amount of money bet on each side is relatively split. The bets are heavily in favor of the buccaneers. So like to me, this is feeling a little bit like a pros Joe's game. Now, my runner said he talked to the two different bookmakers. One of the guys that was at Borgata.

He's claiming they have 13 to one tickets right now in favor of the Buccaneers compared to the Eagles. And we live in New Jersey. So I can't imagine what it is across the country, how much more money the Buccaneers are getting. But people can go through the data. I believe Tom Brady is 0 and 8 or 0 and 7 against the spread in primetime games. So it's a little scary where this guy is due to cover one.

This is such an inflated line. We've talked about it all the time with the defense of woes. And there's just too much value on this Eagles team not to put enough money down on it. And I try to warn people that the Chiefs Buccaneers teaser this week, you know, I love chalky teasers. Stay away. I'm begging people. Stay away. It's alarming.

Last time I checked how much money is on these two sides and the Chiefs and the buckingiers. So I hope people can take on like, you know, it's one of those where even if the Buckingiers and Chiefs hit, yeah, you can be mad at me, but I'm trying to save you money because it's, it is a trap. And they're laying these traps after last week. And everyone I've talked to all my Joe public friends that reach out to me. That's their favorite teaser this week. So please stay away from that Buckingier's Chiefs teaser. What, uh, what number can we get if we were to put this into our five best in a mythical contest? It's going to be six. and a half. I mean, like, that's the, the contests have gotten smarter where they know where the

sharp money is going to come in and they move that number to it just because they want to scare us off. Like, it's worked for them all year. Me and you have been terrified when we move it off numbers that we like. So obviously, if this was plus seven, no brain or bet, but still plus six. We talk about how that's a key number now with all these missed extra points and things like that. We like the plus six and a half. Now it's in here talking about Chad, the Eagles has to be our hornets nest play, doesn't it? Couldn't agree more. Let's go. Let's walk into that hornet's nest. Let's get stunk. I'm walking to a fucking hornet's nest, all right? Now be my companion.

Hornet, on it, hornet's nest, honest, honest. The whole seat down in you. All right. You have to love the reverse line movement. Like when it's moving down and people, I think they're getting even better number on the Buccaneers, it's such a great feeling as a professional. All right. We're going to put a pin in that one.

We'll come back to it. The next game that was on our list were the Texans plus 10 against the Colts. That number has moved down from 11.5. I don't feel strongly against it. I don't feel strongly for it. It's a bet the right number kind of bet. I don't know, like, if we love the Eagles and we're going to get to the Browns, like there's probably a couple games, a handful of games that I like a little better than this one.

So I don't feel strongly bet in the Texans plus 10 right now. Yeah, and actually I know a couple of professionals that are on the Colts in this matchup, which makes me feeling better about our survivor pick. This is going to be a tough week for you having to pick two. This is like there's a lot of... Well, I don't have to pick two. I only have to pick two one more time before week 10. But I am contemplating this as being a week two thing and we can get to this, but I kind

of like the Colts and the Steelers. Yeah. Actually, I like that. It's a sneaky play on the Steelers. But I just keep getting flashbacks of the Steelers were playing. awful Jaguaries team with Blake Bortals and Big Bortos comes in and puts up 45 points on Pittsburgh. It's like this is this is the time I stay away from Pittsburgh. So, um, risky, listen, listen to me. Hold on. Hold on. You're a professional better. You bet based on what you see

in your power ratings, in the numbers, in the research, in the data. Do not let me feel like you are influenced by bad dreams and nightmares from Blake Bortles years past. You have not been bordled. You've just been bordled. Not at all. I bet awful teams consecutive weeks in a row, chat. That's what I do, baby. But I'm just warning these people out here that it looks like a real easy layup taking

Pittsburgh in prime time at home against Gino Smith. Little fishy, little fishy. And I had that line at four, four and a half, and now it's up to five a half. So, I don't know. It's one of those I'm advising people to stay away. Even though I get it, you just want to get rid of the Steelers and the survivor pool. What's worse than getting rid of the Colts? I mean, Colts are terrible.

I'm happy to get rid of them this week and Survivor. So the plus 10, I get it if you want to stay away. But I don't know. I'm going to be betting it. But yeah, it probably won't be one of my favorite five. Also, if you like this Houston team, they're saying to Rai Taylor has me back next week. I've already bet the plus 14 against Arizona next week with this Houston team, just in case he does come back.

I can see that line dropping. So do you like this Houston team with Trad Taylor as a quarterback plus 14 next week has good value? Matt, that is professional. That is called value investing right there. Sadly, it's only a thousand limits. You can't put that much down, but I still like, I still think it's good value. Guy, I don't bet anything less than five times. So if I can't get, if I can't get more than a thousand down, then it's not,

it's probably not going to be worth my time. Amen. Here's an interesting game. On Tuesday, we love the Washington football team plus seven. The line has been bet down to six and a half. So sharp money is coming in on this Washington football team because the bets are all over the chiefs. So the question becomes, at six and a half, are we all of a sudden betting the chiefs against

a Washington football team defense that really just isn't very. good. And a quarterback who doesn't seem to sort of be able to make the progressions, as we wouldn't expect them to. He's not a elite level NFL quarterback. He's a guy who is out of the league, shows flashes of athleticism, makes miraculous heroic plays against bad teams. But are we feeling like the chiefs are the right side at six and a half? Yeah, and that was our Simon says play simply because I didn't think the seven was going to last. It kind of looked like the pros were going to come in on this number. And they did.

It's just a smart number to go down on. So, yeah, I wouldn't take the chiefs here at six and a half just because it's still a little too high for their defense. There's just something wrong there with this chief's team. They can't run the ball to establish, you know, a lead. They like, they get up on a team, but teams are going to be able to come back at any time. So I don't know. I wouldn't, I wouldn't tell people to take the six and a half with the chiefs. I would probably still be on the Washington side with that.

But if we got down to five, five and a half, yeah, I like the chiefs in that position. But at this number, you're still getting good value in this Washington team just because of that defense with this Kansas City Chiefs team. Right now, we talked about the Chargers and the Ravens when this game was at plus three. There are places on the board right now where you can get the Ravens. for minus two and a half right now. Same feeling. Like I'm on the Ravens, but no,

don't want to make it one of my biggest bets. I'm going to have way more money bet on the chargers and a teaser. Because you're going to, like right now you get chargers eight and a half. And what world can you not cover that number? It's like you're kind of betting on Herbert really keeping you in this game. That's just a smart number at eight and a half in a teaser. But of course,

I still like the Ravens. They're just a great running team. against a really bad run defense. And I know they're going to try to make a one-dimensional, the chargers. They'll stack the box and make one more try to beat him with his arm. He's won a bunch of games this year with his arm. I don't love it enough to make one of our best five. Like I felt really good about coming into this week.

Don't overthink this. Just do the chargers in a teaser, get them over eight and a half. That's a great number to have Herbert. Like anytime you're going to be able to get Herbert this year as a dog, they're going to feel good about it. So I'm still on the Ravens. I'm going to try to hit that middle, though. You take the eight and a half, take the two and a half of the Ravens.

One of the games we loved, Bengals, Lions. This was at three and a half. Now there are places where it's at three. So it's been heading in the Lions direction. I like this at any number because I think the Lions are a sneaky money line dog here. this is definitely one of these games we're losing because it feels too easy like i love this it really does that's what i it's making me so scary like the three and a half did not make sense at all like they had to have known pros were going to pound that number um makes sense now that's down

to three bangles again they are a good team no doubt they can pass the ball the lions are very weak in the secondary at this point that's one of their bigger weaknesses but lines just don't go away and we've seen it where they're kind of always in these games. And at three and a half, this was a great number. At three, don't love it as much. Kind of love that hook. I know you think they're getting at the outright win. Some of these teams just can't win.

Like this destroyed team, they don't know how to win yet. And they're trying to learn, but they just haven't figured it out. So still love it at three and a half, if that's what it is in our contest for our best five. But at three, it's kind of like making me a little scared off at this point because it's like, it's too easy. It's one of these games I look at where it just seems too easy and the numbers all line up that way

where I had this at two, three and a half, you know, a point and a half difference. That's a huge value for me. So still like it at three. I just don't love it as much as I did at three and a half. We're actually having a hard time

finding five that we potentially love right now. I got them. I got you. You do. All right. Well, we're not done. Yeah, we got like six, seven, we got, we got, we got plenty. We got four other games that I want to talk about. So we're not, we're not entirely done yet.

Do you want to talk about Vikings and Panthers? We had sort of waffled on that one the other day. Still, pro game, all pros will be on the Panthers. The Vikings are bad away from home. They're bad as favorites. I think they're 0 and 7 or own five or something like that in their last seven, five or six starts as favorites. They're just not reliable.

This one Kirk kind of lets teams down. And I love the bounce back spot for Sam Darnel in this position against just not that good of a defense in the Vikings. I know they had a crazy game against the Browns, or they really shut down the Browns offense. That was just more like a fluky, sloppy game. I like Carolina get right in this game. So if you're cool putting this one in, I know they burned us last week, but at home

as a dog, it's a great number. Guy, I want nothing to do with this game. Staying away. Yeah. This is a terrible idea. This is one of those games where how do I want to think about this game? It's a little bit like last week. Like, you know, there were reasons to like or not like either side.

And like this game, there is no consensus. We can make whatever decision we want to make based on whatever. numbers, we decided to believe in. Do we want to take a short home dog with a really good defense? Do we want to fade a spotty quarterback who is reverting back to his old habits in Sam Darnold? Do you want to bet on a Vikings team that consistently finds ways to put themselves in a position to lose, a la Sinti and Detroit and Arizona? So this to me feel like you're not telling me anything that says we have a handicapping edge in this game. game. It's a field game and I don't feel good. Yeah, it's fair. It is one of those again.

I'll be teasing Carolina. You can get them right now. They're plus one and a half. You can get them up to seven and a half right now in a teaser. That's a great, great number to have at a home dog. It feels like maybe a Chargers Panthers teaser. I'll have to be the way to go. Right? Yeah. And all the hate we've been getting, I think in the action app, I'm like 20 and four or 20 and five on teasers this season. I mean, come up. people. That's, I mean, that's sounds like we got a six point teaser. The worst part is, though, New Jersey's getting, New Jersey's getting tough with these teasers. Like most of the juice on most of these teasers now are up to minus 1.30 minus 140. It's getting

kind of brutal. Yeah, it's bullshit. It's like they don't want you to win. It's like they're trying to keep their money. Yeah. It's fucking ridiculous. All of a sudden, the Jersey books are getting as smart as the Vegas books. All right. Here's one I know we're going to dig in on. Green Bay Packers visiting the Chicago Bears their four and a half point favorites the Packers are we squared this one on Tuesday

projo game which it still is I can't find any reason that I don't want to bet the Bears yeah the only fear is the Green Bay has been absolutely horrible in the red zone and you expect that to come back down

into a middle part. Like I think they're 27th in red zone efficiency. It would make more sense if they hit middle of the pack down to 13 or 14 with Aaron Rogers. But we're trying to capitalize on that. We have a bear's defense that's really good in the red zone. We have a bear's defense plays great at home. We're betting a lot on Justin Fields here.

We're betting on Justin Fields can kind of have a good game where he did not play well in Vegas. He did enough, obviously, to win. Didn't play well. We need more explosive plays, more downfield throws from them. So this is a scary number at four and a half, but I think you're getting a great number because it's going to go down to four, three and a half by kickoff.

The pros will come in on this just because everyone's looking at the same thing. This Bears defense just plays much better at home. And the Green Bay team has just not, they've won games, right? They've been good this year, but they just haven't looked like they did last year. They were this unstoppable force. There's a little bit of holes and, you know, a divisional game for, you know, first place in this division. The Bears team is going to get up for this at home. We love it at four and a half. It's, we're me and Chad, if you haven't noticed, we love home dogs.

This is what he talked about. We circled this one, because this is one of my favorite plays this week. You love the Bears in this position. The only pause is, again, it's a rookie quarterback. There's a lot of unknown just from that standpoint. You never really know what you're going to get from that. But matchup-wise, defense, the Chicago Bears defense against this Green Bay offense. I love that towards the bear's defense. A couple stats that I'm stealing from the Action Network podcast with Chris Raybon and Stucky. The Packers are the only team in the league that is four and one and has a negative point differential. This team is a fucking reputation.

It's not a good team, right? And that's number one, number two. The past two weeks, again, I stole this directly from Raybon. the last two weeks, the bears are running the ball 65% of the time, and they are max protecting for fields. So you couple that with the fact that their pass rush from a sack perspective is really good. Like they're leading the league in sacks right now. So there's no reason not to feel comfortable betting on this Bears team as much as it makes me sick to myself. stomach because of my allegiance.

If I were looking at this, and if this was Packers plus four and a half against any other team that had the stats the Bears have, I wouldn't be hesitating. Right. And some people are hanging up saying like, should they not take the Bears money line? No, don't get me wrong. I'm taking their money line. Like the ego is a money line, Washington football team's money line, Detroit's money line, the Bears money line.

He's home dog. I love taking money lines on home dogs just because it works out for me. Maybe my fifth one is going to be Oakland. That's a Las Vegas Raiders, I should say, because that's a team I really like to bounce back this week. But it's, I feel like too many people are going to come in this week thinking what you just said. They're going to glorify the Supreme Bay team where they kind of need to look at what the Green Bay team is this season. And they just have not been right in a lot of ways.

So we tried to catch them last week with the Bengals. I think we're going to catch them this week with the Bears. That was a bad, bad draw. So yeah, that was awful. Awful. I try really hard. I'm watching these games with my son who's going to be 15. We're very open about what I do, about betting, about betting money.

We talk about how I'm not betting money that is going to keep us from being able to pay for the house, keep us from being able to like put food on the table, keep anyone from going to cut. college, you know, we talk about betting responsibly all the time. And like, I don't want him to think, oh, yeah, I got some money. I'm just going to throw it in a game and not be sort of considerate with his cash when he eventually has some. I also don't want him to think like overreacting and throwing things at the TV and screaming and yelling is the right way to manage your betting.

So last week when the Vikings were about to lose. for us in the survivor pool and the Bengals were missing field goals. I was like doing everything in my parental power to not scream, to not whip my phone across the room. It was hard. Like the Bengals and Packers put us through the spin cycle a little bit. Yeah. And like you actually make me think of my ex where she used to be like,

you handle like losing really well. Like literally as you know, I'm in her bathroom just screaming into her pillow, like top of my lungs. I'm just so mad. So I'm like you. I try to hide it from the people around. But yeah, like inside, I'm dying. So it is tough.

Honestly, I feel like my wife doesn't even know this. But when on the weekends, when we're losing the most towards the end of the second games, that's when I'm most active in the kitchen. I'm, I decide I'm making dinner or I'm doing all the dishes or I'm emptying the dishwasher. whatever it is, I'm like somewhere away from the games. And I'm getting all these points for being so fantastic and such a great husband. And it's really just, I need to find something to do so I don't like break things. Our old friend Scooch, former co-host of this podcast, used to say, when all hope is lost,

all that's left is relief. And that's kind of how you feel on a Sunday afternoon when you're losing. It is. I feel like we're completely different people, though. you going to help out in the kitchen. I'm like one of those people. I need to watch myself die. Like I have to watch just the ultimate pain.

Just to like really instill myself. Like you made this mistake. That's why like people always like, oh, I hate that you don't freak out on Twitter. You don't complain anything like that. It's just as a professional, I literally lean into it. I suffer.

And then on Monday, it's a clean sheet. It's like nothing ever happened. And like that's how you have to be because the wins will come. That's just a matter of fact. But you have to understand the losses will come. No one wins. even the best professionals I know, 60% is the dream every season. So it's the loss is hurt, but I know it's going to go our other way.

That's why I try to get too down on it because eventually it flips. It does. It always flips. And this week it's going to flip because we're going to be on the Browns minus three. And we fucking love this number. Easy money. Done. Done.

Totally. I'm putting it in the contest already. Not anything else to say. Like we've talked about it. You talked about. some of the syndicates coming in, betting on one side, realizing they made a mistake, betting up the other side. The matchup is great. It's a coaching matchup that we like with Stefanski over Kingsbury. It's a on the field matchup with the Browns rushing game

against the Cardinals rushing defense. There's a weather advantage for the Browns and the way they play versus the way the Cardinals play. Everything about it. Love it, love it, love it, want to marry it, would want it to walk with me to the end of the earth. Yep. No doubt. This is one of our five. This is one of my favorite bets this week. And now a word from our friends at Fandul who want you to get the most out of every NFL game day. That's why they're giving everyone a $10 risk-free bet every week. All you have to do is bet a same game parlay bet with three legs or more. And if your bet doesn't win, Fandul will pay you back up to $10. For example, this week,

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1-8009 with it in Indiana. 1-800-270-1-1-7-1-7 for confidential help in Michigan. The Tennessee red line is 1-800-9-9-9-7-8-9. Visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia or call 1-800 next step or text. Next step to 533-4-2 in Arizona. Let's get back to it. If we go to the next game and you tell me that the Patriots are now one of your favorite five too.

By God, Simon, then I don't want to know you. Yeah, it probably won't be one of our five we talked about last week, I mean, on Tuesday. I loved it at plus four. I was hoping to get to four and a half. It's now down to three and a half and might get down to three because their pros are coming in on it. Yep. I don't mind it, but there's a reason I put in my round robin, this, this Cowboys team, they're just too good.

That's the only fear with this number. We're literally going against the best against the spread team right now. So eventually we're going to be on their side of a lot of Dallas games because they're going to be overinflated like they are in this game. But they're just so high right now. So it's it's a little terrifying where, yes, the numbers, all the things say go against Dallas. The human element stops me and says, don't put too much money on this Patriots team. Okay. You're literally taking a rookie QB versus DAC in a matchup that a lot of it slants towards this Dallas team.

They just have a lot of, especially on the D-Line, of the O line. A lot of things are better for this Dallas team than it is for the Patriots team. So I do like the Patriots tab, but I don't think this would be one of our best five. I know you love the Raiders. Go ahead and tell me, tell me why. So I actually, we do a thing here, the action where we do an NFL like power rating thing, where we pretty much put in our numbers from our systems and you can see everyone's numbers.

And that's how I learned to love this guy named Travis Reed, who worked for this company. This dude is a legit maniac. He'll make like 10 point underdogs, you know, a 3 point underdog. This guy's system is wild. So I love him. I love going on there and seeing what lines he puts up there. The most interesting game this week is this one. I'm the only one that has Las Vegas Raiders as a favorite.

So everyone else is all over this Denver team. They think this is a good line. On the other way, I have the, I have Las Vegas a minus one. So I love this number. I think we're getting incredible value at three and a half. And so with all the professionals I've talked to, Everyone I know is bet this Las Vegas Raiders team. So it could be a little bit of home bias of the boys out in the desert.

But this is a smart number. And I'm sure the Action Network gets the same thing to say the money is towards Las Vegas right now. Let's see. Right now this game, it's all Broncos. So that's pretty interesting. So yeah, maybe we'll see that switch. I know that I've had a couple guys reach out that they don't like all the drama right now that's happening with Las Vegas. Like we have guys skip and practice and taking personal time.

to figure out their own stuff. But this is just a great, great bounce back spot for this Las Vegas team. And they're playing against a Denver team that, yeah, I know that I was kind of like turning the tide on them. But I think we've kind of learned that those first three games, they just played really bad teams. And we don't think Las Vegas, they might not be as good as they looked early in the year. They're not a really bad team. Like, they have a good offense. So I still love this number of three and a half.

I really hope you let me put this one in for us. Listen, dude, I'm not, I don't live in a world where I keep people from chasing their dreams. That's, you know what? That's not the kind of relationship I want to have with anybody. Someone wants something bad enough. I want to be there to support them. Well, this isn't a dream of mine, but I would like to put it in. Okay.

Let's do it. What I would like to know is why do you have this power rated so differently than everybody else? I think everyone just doesn't want to be touching this Las Vegas. Raiders team. It's just there's too much drama, too much unknown. And they're also probably looking at it from the standpoint of Denver just plays better at home. But in a divisional matchup, this is such a good number. I just, I can't see a word that we don't get, we don't cover three points in this matchup. Derrick had a stinker last week. This is a great bounce back spot for him against a Denver team that was a little overrated in the secondary. People talk about how great

their secondary was. Lamar Jackson passed all over them. Ben Rathasberger just passed. all over them. I love this matchup for Derek Carr. So a little bit of, I think people are just down on this Las Vegas team right now, where I'm still at the same point I was when we started the year. I think they're above average team. All right. Well, we're going to put in the contest and it's going to be ugly.

And it's going to cause me to go clean the kitchen at about 645 Eastern on Sunday afternoon. Steeler Seahawks. Oh, no, actually, that's not one of the games in our list. No. The last one I want to talk about, you've got to talk about Titans Bills because it was a sharp call. You might have been turned around. Interesting one. Bills, road favorite, getting 80% of the tickets.

You wanted to be on the Bills here. You're anti-Titans all season long. A lot of signals that prove you're correct from the Titans point of view. but they're also a team that plays to the level of their opponent. So the fact they're at home, it's a relatively big number, all the sentiment on the bills. I agree with what your sharp buddies are saying, you've got to go to the Titans.

Yeah, I think they're looking at for a matchup standpoint that the Titans are the same kind of makeup as the bills. They're big, big D-line and big offensive line that like the bully teams around. But like I told the professionals, is I just think that they're sleeping on Josh Allen in prime time. And in these kind of matchups where he's just been covering and dominating teams and these kind of set up. So if you take away the playoffs last year, I think they had seven straight covers.

They didn't cover obviously a week went against Pittsburgh and now they're four straight covers. So I'm going to be riding this bill's team. I'm all in on them. I think this line should be six, six and a half. It's still five and a half. Happy to take that number at this point. So I will be having the bills and a lot of teasers and I will be losing a lot of money. if you are right and that the Tennessee team can upset them.

But usually these positions, prime time games, I like to take the home team. But there's certain teams that break these rules. I think the bills will be that team this year. They're just going to break a lot of these rules. So nothing that your wise guys on the other side said convinces you that the Titans are the right side. It just made you feel like they are less, that the bills are less of a team that are not the team that we want to put into one of our five favorite.

Right. Right. Like I felt good at five and a half because I had this game at six, but because after talking to them and them saying they think it should be four, three and a half, I'm just going to tease it. I'll leave it out of our contest. That's what I'm trying to get better at where I'm just going to stick games in where I think I'm getting the best number. I need to listen to my old heads. The guys who've been around, they've seen these things a million times and they just know. They don't run some computer system. They're just going off pure instinct and how they've just watched the game over all these years. So if they're telling me that I'm overthinking and I'm not taking. at a bad number. I got to listen to them. So yeah, I'll be teasing this down, but I won't be taken at five and a half. All right. Then this is sort of our lineup right now. Eagles plus six and a half. We're in the Hornets Nest. We're going against Tom Brady in a prime time matchup, because why wouldn't you want to do that with real money at stake? We love the Browns. We are thinking that we're going to be on the Raiders. So that's three.

We're liking the Bears at plus four and a half. Bears have to be in there four and a half. Yeah, yeah. We're on the Bears at four and a half. That's four games. Eagles, Browns, Raiders, bears.

And then I think we're going to choose on Sunday like Lions, Texans, or somebody else. Yeah, or Washington. Like, that's what we're going to be talking about it. Like, we already talked about the lions. That just feels too easy. That's the only one that really scares me because that feels like the easiest bet of this week where that was an incredible number they gave is at three and a half. And if it's three,

if it's just three in our pickpool or contest, whatever we're doing, yeah, I'll stay away from it. But it'll be hard not to take lines at three and a half if that's the number. All right. If we're going to do a round robin money line parlay, who are our teams? So I'm going to do Thursday night special. I'll have the Eagles in there, even though I really have zero faith in this team to win. But I do love them to cover. Detroit, Washington.

Again, Carolina's two shorts. We don't have to put that one in. Put the lines in there. And then I like cap on off with the Raiders just because I would love to have New England in there. I just can't see them winning it. I just I can't have faith in a rookie quarterback like to have to close this game out against Dak. Back has just been playing too well this year. So it's maybe come Sunday, I'll throw one out there with the,

with New England in there. As we sit here Thursday, I don't have any money line ties to this New England, but. Very good. Eagles. Colts for our survivor and Chad also likes Pittsburgh. So if you lose on Pittsburgh and Survivor, please leave me alone. Yellow Chad. Listen, I haven't decided if I'm going with it.

I like to play though. The Steelers, like if I end up choosing two, it will be those two teams, and then I'm debating if I want the Steelers or the Colts. I'm really just thinking about down the line, do I have better chances to use the Colts later in the year than the Steelers? Yeah, like you'll have a chance to use the Mexans again and the Jaguars. I get why you're weighing that in.

I just cannot trust Pittsburgh, especially after a win. By the way, your favorite person, and Travis Reed, who does our survivor column every week, I think he has both the Colts and the Steelers as two of the best teams to take this week. Yep, that was his two favorites. He said stay away from the Rams, I believe, because he thinks that's going to be the most publicly done one this week, the Rams against the Giants on the road.

He's like me. He skews towards home teams with these. I think we covered it all, my friend. We narrowed down our games. We did a money line around Robin Parlor. We got a survivor. We got our hornets nest. We're going to do disgusting things.

We're going to ask a lot of people. We're going to ask for their faith. We're going to ask for their patience. We're going to ask for their understanding. We'll probably end up asking for their forgiveness. And we'll ask them to come back to listen to the favorites on the Volume Podcast Network on Tuesday. We're going to ask them to download the podcast from Apple Podcasts from Spotify,

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Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guide, Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not.

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Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at a podcast. That was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.

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Yep, that's me, Clivert Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Cliford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

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