The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 1

Episode Date: September 5, 2024

A new NFL season kicks off tonight in Kansas City! To celebrate, Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to give out their best bets across the NFL Week 1 slate. Togeth...er they narrow down their picks for their free Favorites Podcast $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest presented by bet365, which is still open for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com and awarding huge cash prizes all season long!  We also get their famous Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, a boosted moneyline underdog parlay, a long discussion on the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants, and so much more. #Volume #Herd  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.
Starting point is 00:00:23 Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.
Starting point is 00:00:47 Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. It's your responsibility to not just seek help, but to identify that you need help. This is Mental Health Awareness Month. Tune in to the podcast, Just Healed with Dr. Jay, and take real steps toward healing, growth, and becoming your best self. From understanding your mental health to doing the work, we break down practical tools, real conversations,
Starting point is 00:01:18 and the mindset shifts you need to move forward and thrive. It's time to stop putting your healing on hold and start doing something about it. Listen to Just Healed with Dr. Jay on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. On the Cino Show podcast, each episode invites you into a raw, unfiltered conversations about recovery, resilience, and redemption. On a recent episode, I sit down with actor, cultural icon, Danny Trail, talk about addiction, transformation, and the power of second chances.
Starting point is 00:01:45 The entire season two is now available to bench, featuring powerful conversations with the guests like Tiffany Addish, Johnny Knoxville, and more. I'm an alcoholic. And without this probe, I'm going to die. Listen to the Cino Show on the IHare Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get. It's your podcast.
Starting point is 00:02:01 I'm Joey Dardano, and on my new podcast, Hope From a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to me. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from a Hypocrite Wednesdays on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. you get your podcasts. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast, presented by Bet365.
Starting point is 00:02:45 We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are live from our Midtown Manhattan Studios, the Tommy John Studio at Action Network, HQ. I'm joined, as always, by my calls my companion, my compadre, my BF.F. BFF Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. We made it, brother. We made it.
Starting point is 00:03:13 We get to see each other face to face. Last night, you and I went to dinner together. And we talked about all the things that BFFs talk about when they're at dinner together. Most importantly, are we over-invested in the Carolina Panthers? Have we made a mistake on the Giants? Can you convince me to actually bet the Bears instead of the Titans? we are going to get to all of it. Today is our NFL week one best bets episode.
Starting point is 00:03:43 Simon and I narrowed down our five picks in the Favorites podcast. $100,000 pro football pick-em contest presented by Bet365. Don't forget, you can still sign up at favorites.actionnetwork.com on today's show, as we will do every Thursday this season. We'll do sharp calls. Our big balls, bet of the week, the underdog money line parlay, survivor pool picks, Simon's biggest bets, our director of research, Evan Abrams will join us and so much more. But first, as a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365, and this just in.
Starting point is 00:04:31 New Bet365 customers now get $200 in bonus bets when you bet. $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit, $10, and place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at Bet365, must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky.
Starting point is 00:05:04 Gambling problem called 1-800-Gambler or 1-800. bets off in Iowa, terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Once again, if you want to sign up for the favorites $100,000 pro football pickum contest, free to play, five picks every single week, season long, if you want to get in before week one, now is the time to do it. You will have chances to get in over the next couple of weeks because we drop a couple of scores, but now is the time to get in if you want to have the full slate for the next 18 weeks. That's all the way. into the New Year folks. Don't get left behind. It's totally free to play. Like I said, just five picks against the spread every single week over 100 grand in cash prizes, up for grabs.
Starting point is 00:05:49 You will be competing against me and Simon. The picks that we talk about on this show, what we narrow it down to. That is what will end up in the contest. First place in this in this contest takes home 40 grand every single week. The first place finisher, the person who has the best record during the week, gets $1,000 that they nail the tiebreaker exactly. that 1,000 grows to 2,000. We did hear people have problems signing for the contest. We've gotten through that. Go sign up now. Favorites.actionnetwork.com.
Starting point is 00:06:19 All right. As always, we like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are as a podcast. Simon, the lines move based on our conversations. We saw it happen on Tuesday. We've seen it happen over the last 48 hours. The pros also feel compelled. They're our own little sort of Roman Senate
Starting point is 00:06:40 telling us constantly what they think of our opinions. All right, Simon, let's go to some sharp calls. Just give me the highlights here. What games have the guy said, we're right and we're wrong before we dive in a little bit deeper? Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring.
Starting point is 00:07:01 Somebody said, baby, what you doing? Well, let's start with the hated chat, Because that's really what people want to know. What are the pros hate that we picked? Off the top, they hate our Lions pick. They do. Yeah, they love the Rams. No!
Starting point is 00:07:16 No! They think we're walking into it. And I disagree. I think this sets up nice for this Detroit team at home in the scenario. I love that they hate it because we're going to come back around. It raises the stakes. Yeah, a little bit. On this bet for later in the show.
Starting point is 00:07:31 Well, I just said to them, it's brutal because it's the only favorite me and you agreed on, really. I'm coming around on Seattle. You are? Okay. That was one off the top. The number two is a game you like. I know our guy Chris Raybon likes. They all like Tennessee. They keep throwing that stat in my face, right? Number one pick overall. What are they? 014 and 1 in their last 15 starts against the spread. We'll get into that game because they got a lot of opinions on that Chicago game. But I haven't budge on that. I still love Chicago. So it's not shocking to hear they love the Titan so much. The Detroit one shocked me more. The fact they love the Rams so much. But this one didn't. For the The last one that they think we got wrong, Chad. I can't believe it. It's the Giants. They like the Vikings, so that's another one we're going to dive into.
Starting point is 00:08:17 I just don't think people understand that this Giants team isn't as bad as they perceive. And that's what, I'm trying to get into people's heads here. That's how I try to get into their heads. Juh, man. Thought that was going to be the pros versus Joe's. I thought the public would be on the Vikings. The pros would be on the Giants. It's honestly split right down the middle.
Starting point is 00:08:34 I've talked to pros who like our side and pros who really hate. that bet we have made. So that's off the top. For the ones they love, I think a couple of the ones we knew they were going to love, right? The Panthers. That's a pros game. We knew the pros would love that. Unfortunately, it sounds like it's a little bit of the public game as well. The public has come around on this Panthers team. It is, but again, I think it's because of the number, right? We've seen the four and a half now drop down to four, three and a half at a couple books. So to me, again, that makes sense. The pros like the number. I don't think we'd play the same as that three and a half as we would at four and a half.
Starting point is 00:09:06 So to me, that's the big difference there. And the last one is the Jets. Like, the pros love the Jets. Like the 49ers, they've had so much turmoil. It makes sense why the public would be on the Jets as well. And then you throw into the trends, all the numbers. You want to be on the Jets of four and a half. Even though I get the fear because there's been a lot of buyback on the 49ers.
Starting point is 00:09:29 I think it's just because it's the Monday night game, right? Guys, we talk at a time. people are going to have their parlays, all their teasers tied to this 4-9ers team. So I'm not too shocked. The number's gone up. It's holding now four and a half. Now, if me and you come into our show Sunday night and that number's up to six, I'm going to be scared because that's some big professional money coming in on the four-n-hands. But right now, to me, it's business as usual.
Starting point is 00:09:52 So as far as you go as for sharp calls, we got a couple of picks they hate chat and a couple of picks they love. Well, it's good because it also allows us to dig in a little bit deeper on some of these games. the Giants game in particular, the Lions game. I know we talked about what are big balls, better the week, presented by Tommy John, by the way, but what it might be before the show. I think we need to call an audible. I'm going to call the audible based on the sharp calls
Starting point is 00:10:17 when we get to it. All right, so listen, Simon and I discussed on Tuesday that, you know, early into the season, we lean into these trends a bit more than normal because we don't know a ton about these teams yet. like quarterbacks aren't playing a lot during the regulars, during the preseason. So it's hard to judge the real tendencies of these teams at this point. So we can't play spots.
Starting point is 00:10:44 We can't take advantage of a lot of mispricing. All of that is just harder in weeks one and week two. So there are a couple trends. There's about three trends that I just want to highlight right now. If I refer back to them during the show, when I say this team follows the trends, is these trends just so I don't have to repeat them every single time. Number one, again, all from the brilliant mind of our director of research, Evan Abrams. Underdogs, between one and five and a half points.
Starting point is 00:11:11 In week one, cover at a 64% clip since 2018 to sample size of nearly 150 games. By the way, they're also 58% over the past decade. Really good trend for underdogs in that one to five and a half range. Favorites of one to three and a half points cover only 43% of the time in September, based off a sample size of more than 550 games. Road Dogs who missed the playoffs the year before, 58% against the spread the past 20 years. A lot of games that fit into all these trends, plus some divisional stuff that we're going to talk about. Look, the first game that is sort of on the edge of our,
Starting point is 00:11:56 top five, Pittsburgh in Atlanta. Atlanta is a three-point favorite. We've been holding out, hoping to get three and a half. It's one of the few games that hasn't moved. A lot of games have. The juice is on the minus three at minus 120, so it could go to three and a half.
Starting point is 00:12:11 They're asking us to pay the price to get the three. I just think it, like, the more I think about this game, so hard not to back the Steelers here, right? It is like one of those bets that did not get a lot of my attention in the last, until the past 48 hours. I'd even make it a candidate from Nondog Parlay, which we're going to get to. Maybe it won't get there. But look, the stats I ticked off at the top of the show are relevant.
Starting point is 00:12:33 Mike Tomlin, the best underdog coach against the spread the past 20 years. I'm going to cut you off because I laugh at that all the time. Like, that's what the hell we pay to do. It's going to make our final five? Do we like Pittsburgh right now? We like Pittsburgh. You said there's a lot of books out there that have this at three and a half. The book we're working with has an up three.
Starting point is 00:12:52 Are we really going to force it at a two and a half at a bad number? and when there's three and a halfs out there. Good point? No. Like, that's just something we never do. So we like this number. This is another game, though, the pros are split on. I think there's some professionals that really love this Atlanta team.
Starting point is 00:13:06 They got them pegged as 11-12-win team, a top seed in the NFC. And this to them is a game that kind of sets that benchmark. Because Atlanta does have some tough games here early in the slate. So looking at this matchup, I think me and chat said what we need to say about this one, where it's like we like the coaching matchup better for Pittsburgh. We like Pittsburgh's deal. defense much more than we trust Atlanta's offense. Especially, again, Kirk Cousin's first game after coming off this insane injury.
Starting point is 00:13:32 Achilles is a big deal, especially for someone that's putting all their power and their weight onto that back hill. Every time they push off, every throw he makes is on that back heel. So my hesitation for Atlanta is valid. The numbers, though, that's what we're playing here. Three and a half, I love Pittsburgh. If it's two and a half, there's no chance. There's no chance I didn't even think about putting this one. In the contest, we're not going to play it in two and a half.
Starting point is 00:13:54 But three and a half, I bet Pittsburgh every day. And it's very possible that if we wait, because the contest plays, we can go until Sunday. And the lines are dynamic. The Steelers get to three and a half. And if I've got the Steelers at three and a half on the road with Mike Tomlin against a coach who is not a rookie head coach of Rahim Morris, but is new with this team. And Kirk Cousins off in Achilles and like T.J. Watt on the edge against Kirk Cousins off in Achilles, that will be a very hard game. You ain't knew to this no more now.
Starting point is 00:14:24 You know what I mean? And they just paid Cam Hayward. Like it's, yeah, that defense for Pittsburgh, I mean, we can make fun of their offense. That defense is incredible. Like, they just got skills across every line. The secondary is incredible. So that's our real big hesitation, right? We want to play this one.
Starting point is 00:14:40 The number's not there for us right now. All right. Jags in Miami, Dolphins 3 and a half. We had been on monsoon watch for this game. It looks like the weather is going to be clear. The line has moved in Miami's direction the past 40 hours. I don't know why. I don't know if you have any insights there.
Starting point is 00:14:56 Weather. If it's going to be good weather, that definitely favors Miami, right? Yeah, but that doesn't make any sense because you can't logically look at these teams and say, all of a sudden, Miami is a field goal better. You only have to look at the first eight weeks of the Jaguars last year. No, this was a team that was going to win their division if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get hurt. And I think honestly that's why we like this number so much. It feels like too much respect is being paid to Miami what they did last year,
Starting point is 00:15:21 how dominant and great they were at home. And another thing you can throw in, we didn't even talk about, is they struggled against good teams, right? Like, I think they were one in seven last year against playoff teams. Yeah, the Jaguars were not a playoff team last year. But you just said it, they were going to be. They're a really good team. Like, if they didn't have injuries and they didn't fall off a cliff, they would have been in the playoffs last year. So I'm in a complete agreeance to chat here.
Starting point is 00:15:42 It's just the hate for the Jaguars has gone too far. And a game we both to expect will be a shootout. I love the Jaguars to stay in this game. Like everything they do, I never feel like, even if they're down to. it feels like me and Chad will get that back door at the end of the game so to me the key number three and a half I'm right there with you Chad I would not be shocked this is one of our five yeah it's so interesting to me if you look at the dolphins no Ramsey Jalen Ramsey no Chubb on the edge Christian Wilkins is gone their defense has no real
Starting point is 00:16:17 game changers we have Trevor Lawrence at 22 to 1 to lead the league in passing yards. Like, we, we believe in this Jaguar's team, probably a lot more, obviously, than the market does. I'm putting them on the list. You're putting them on the list. Just like, I'm not saying they're going to be in the finals, but it's really hard not to consider them.
Starting point is 00:16:41 It's a really nice number for week one. With how much we like them. Yeah. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,
Starting point is 00:16:59 embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam, this Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:17:22 without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series
Starting point is 00:17:42 because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night bases on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing.
Starting point is 00:18:00 That man, hell get the flying. He run up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app,
Starting point is 00:18:16 Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. Now, everybody over here, oh, it's one of my other favorite place. The twilight gazebo. Sunset Gardens. Twilight gazebo. What's next? Dead man's grove?
Starting point is 00:18:31 Mom, could you please try to be a little bit positive about this? From Kenya Barris, the visionary creator of Blackish, comes Big Age, an audible original about finding your way in life's next chapter. This audio comedy series follows a retired couple's reluctant relocation to sunset gardens, a Floridian senior community that is anything but relaxing. Starring Comedy Legends, Jennifer Lewis, Cedric the Entertainer, and Nisi Nashvettes. Through its blend of outrageous comedy,
Starting point is 00:19:01 Key Party Anyone, and Touching Revelations, Big Age explores what it means to grow older without growing old at heart. Go to audible.com slash big age series to start listening today. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Conkey, his best friend and business manager.
Starting point is 00:19:23 And we've got a new show called The 1021 podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jordan Dono.
Starting point is 00:19:53 that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than me. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, Hope I'm a Hippocrat. I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Syke! I'm a comedian! I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff rant and recommend some of the most
Starting point is 00:20:22 legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Oh, cream of chicken suit. Hey, cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrat as part of the Mike Cultura podcast network available on the IHartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Our foxhole bet on Tuesday was Vikes at Giants, Giants plus one and a half.
Starting point is 00:20:59 We've been talking about the Giants plus one and a half since the offseason when these lines first posted. We have planted a flag in the sand. We have pushed our chips in the middle of the table. Like I said, you and I had dinner last night. We're talking about all these games. This morning, before I came in, I listen to Stucky and Raybom on the Action Network pod. They do their Sunday six-pack, which I love.
Starting point is 00:21:27 I like to listen to them because I like to see, like, are we on the same side of some of their games? And we were on the same side of a lot of the games. They love the Vikings here. And you've mentioned this in Sharp Calls. Like, in every way we are invested in the Giants on this one. Now I feel like we're really in a foxhole. We're against Stucky and Raybond and we're against the wise guys. Are you going to have to talk me off a ledge?
Starting point is 00:21:55 No, because I think they're painting as if it's a perfect world where I get it, the giant secondary is where you can attack them. What's the strength of this Viking team? They're whiteouts, right? But it's Sam Darnold. At the end of the day, it is Sam Darnold. And, like, to me, there's a bunch of things where, yeah, maybe, Chad, when we're down 14 to 3 in the first quarter, I'm going to feel like an idiot
Starting point is 00:22:16 because it's like, why did we back this team? But I just can't see it playing out that way. Like, I just think Devo's going to have this team so prepared, this Giants team. Like, everything I've read and seen, this team, Daniel Jones has kind of gotten off those early seasons coming back from a big injury, right? He did not look right for the first two weeks of camp. I totally agree with those people. These last three weeks, he's really put together a lot of good camps, a lot of good practices. Then you mix in, I don't think these enough people are a factor in neighbors.
Starting point is 00:22:43 Like, he's never had a neighbors. Like, as much as we want to praise Sequan Barkley, do running backs move the needlechats? Not for us. Like if it's a running back going to a great team like McCaffrey, that's a big deal to me and you. Like we always talk about how big of a deal that was, that Carolina trade. Other scenarios, it doesn't really make that big. If you're a bad team, the running back's not the key. Like you need a guy on the outside that can win in one-on-ones.
Starting point is 00:23:06 I think Neighbors is that guy for this team. Again, Marvin Harrison Jr. was not in this draft chat. He would have been the number of receiver easily. Would have been a top five pick most likely. This kid is that gifted. So to me, I still think not a lot of life. loves being paid to this giant's team. The only hesitation for me is their defensive corner who we respected a lot.
Starting point is 00:23:25 He left and went to Ohio State, right? So that means their defense is going to be a little different this year. They've added pieces. Like to me, their linebacking corps is really good. The fact they brought in Burns to try to sit down someone on the outside. Because, again, we already know inside, they're great. Inside the detackle position, they have one of the best detackers on football. So, you know, to me it just keeps adding up to this Giants team got the six wins last year with Tommy DeVito and good coaching.
Starting point is 00:23:49 now they have a better roster than they've had in Dable's whole career there and people are selling them. They're just totally out on this team and we're getting them as a home dog and Sam Darno on the road. A guy who is,
Starting point is 00:24:00 I don't remember how to tell me ahead, but I think Evan said he's 4 in 10 as a favorite. So it's like, it's just all adding up. We like the trends, we like the team, we like the match up. I think the hate, the public perception, the hate on the Giants has gone too far
Starting point is 00:24:13 and that's where we're getting such a good number on this, where, you know, if this was late in the season, there's no chance would be an underdog in the spot. I think it's just really public perceptions really dictating this line right now.
Starting point is 00:24:25 And like I said, you said it too. There's pros on both sides here. So this is definitely a standoff between the professionals on the side where the public probably is not going to bet this game because it's just, when you look at the board, they want nothing to do with this one. So these are the kind of games I love
Starting point is 00:24:38 because this really sets up both these teams for the season, people's opinions on both teams. I feel like this also answers so many debates. Two years ago, Dayball and Kevin O'Connell are rookie head coaches, right? They both have the kind of years. They were one and two in one score games. It was just a miracle every single week. One of them was winning a one score game.
Starting point is 00:25:03 They get to the playoffs, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Brian DeBall, Kevin O'Connell, and the Giants beat the Vikings at home, right? Daibald wins coach of the year. He's getting all the accolades, like you said, like the pendulum has sort of won so much. I feel like this is a really interesting coaching definition game. Yeah. Because of what we saw.
Starting point is 00:25:26 Like, I have wondered for the past season that Kevin O'Connell not get enough credit. And you're always like, he lost at home in the playoffs to the guy that we're saying is terrible. It deserves more credit. So now both teams stink. Both QBs are suspect. We get a chance to see who deserves any hype as a coach. I think this is a huge, huge game for the dream.
Starting point is 00:25:46 trajectory of both of their coaching careers. You talked me back into the house. There we go. I was on the ledge. I feel much more confident now. It is our foxhole. I am hyper-invested in the Vikings at 15-1 to have the worst record in the NFL. I would very much like to kick it off with a positive way.
Starting point is 00:26:07 All right. Carolina at New Orleans. This numbers at four. This was my exact decision. The Panthers may be the, closest thing we have to a consensus pick for the over this season, according to everybody at the Action Network. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:26:27 Win totals. We have expectation busting bets on the Carolina Panthers. Right now, they've upgraded the offensive line at both cars. They've upgraded at wide receiver. They've upgraded at coaching. All of the trends that I mentioned at the top are applicable here. One more I'll add for you. NFL Division Underdogs, 37, 15, and 1 against the spread.
Starting point is 00:26:54 71% in week 1 since 2014, covering by nearly 5 points per game. Couldn't feel better about this Carolina bet except for the fact everybody in the world is now on Carolina. Well, actually, if you look, even in the action app, the tickets are slanted to. towards the Saints, but it's the money is overwhelmingly on the Panthers. Like that's, what you say the time, it's professional money. That's good. Right. That's what we want.
Starting point is 00:27:25 And I think that's why, even now, I just open it up to two of the most public sports books out there. They both have moved to three and a half, which is shocking. Like the books that don't take professional money somehow are at three and a half. So it does show the public, like you just said, they are starting to come in on this Panthers team. But like I said, you, I think it's just because of the number. Like four and a half, I felt like it was way too. high. Three and a half feels honestly right. Like this, I have this number great at three, so getting it to three and a half, that sounds right to me. If they got the three, I might be able
Starting point is 00:27:54 to be talking to taking the Saints because that's when the value does switch to them. But we're getting four and a half right now in our contest. And you can still get four and a half at a couple books out there. I know our sponsor, Beth365 is at four, but that's a good number. Like to me, this is going to be a close game. Like, who do you think is going to make the mistake here? I think it's the Saints. Like, I have more faith. And Bryce Young's playing smart, playing safe, protecting the ball. Where Derek Carr, he's looking over his shoulder already. He knows that Spencer Rattler's coming for that job.
Starting point is 00:28:25 And even the fans, the Saints fans are pushing for this kid. So to me, I feel like Bryce Young is going to be playing free and carefree in this new offense. And, like, again, we already talked at Nazim about his new head coach. We love everything we've read and heard coming out of the Panthers camp. The question for us is they're secondary. Like at the end of the day, they do have one of the worst secondaries in football people. I understand why you're like, well, that's why I'm taking a lot of days over, and that's why I kind of like the Saints to stay in this game.
Starting point is 00:28:55 But do you like them at this number? That's my question of people. It's like in this divisional game, how do you not take the Panthers that are basically equals with this Saints team? I know they don't look that way because the wind totals and the pub reception from last year, but to me, starting fresh with a brand new season, this isn't last year, right? This isn't this terrible bums we bet last year in this panthers. Panthers team. This is a new Panthers team with a new identity, whole new coaching staff. So, yeah, to me, we're banking on a big Bryce Young bounceback this season. It's got to start here.
Starting point is 00:29:24 Like, if this guy's going to win this our division on bet, Chad, he's got to win this week one game. So again, we're going to get into our money line round Robin bet later on. This is probably going to sneak in there for this money line around Robin. Yeah, I think, look, when we talk about the Panthers and the reason why everybody action is so all over the Panthers, partially because of their luck, factors last year. Yeah. And all the games that they lost.
Starting point is 00:29:48 Just bad coaching. They were in a position to win because of bad coaching, unlucky turnovers, things that just happened that over the course of time regressed back for them in a good way. You mentioned Dave Canales, people who don't understand when Gino Smith went from sort of meh, you know, wandering quarterback, journeyman quarterback to pro bowler. it was because Dave Canales was his coach. Last season in Tampa Bay, when Baker Mayfield went from journeyman quarterback
Starting point is 00:30:19 to bucks in the playoffs, Dave Canales was his coach. So we're all investing a lot in a regression to the mean for their luck. We're investing a lot in what Dave Canales can do as a coach. We're investing in improvements on the offensive line. We're investing in Bryce Young being a little bit better. We're also fading in a big way what you just said.
Starting point is 00:30:38 Dennis Allen, Derrick Carr, truly at the bottom of their respective rankings when it comes to coaches and quarterbacks against the spread during their time in the league. I mean, these guys are awful at this. And you mentioned Derek Carr already looking over his shoulder. There was a study of a survey. The fan base with the least amount of optimism
Starting point is 00:31:04 is the New Orleans Saints. Very possible Spencer Rattler is starting a quarterback for the Saints. with a different coach by the time we're talking about this team four weeks from now. I believe it. Before Halloween, for sure. All right. Arizona and Buffalo, I don't feel like we want to put this one in.
Starting point is 00:31:23 No. Skip it. All right. I was going to say, like, we didn't even talk about sharp calls, but that was definitely one where if you were a fan of the show and you listened to us back in May, I love the bills. I thought we were getting a good number of the bills. Basically got a bunch of sharp calls bullied me to get an off my position on that and moving towards Arizona, which people know if they listen all summer, I do love Arizona.
Starting point is 00:31:42 Arizona. There's too many questions here, Chad. There's too many questions, and I don't like how the numbers have been moving. It went from five and a half up to six and a half. Now people are saying, well, if you like the Cardinals, why don't you just wait and hope to get a seven? Because I told you guys on Tuesday show, this would be one of the biggest tease teams. The bills will be in a lot of teasers, just like I said, Seattle and Cincinnati well. This is just, they fit the profile, right? So I'm happy with waiting scene, right? We want to see the connection with Kyler and Marvin Harris. So, you know, I, I'm, you know, I got no issue sitting this one out, but I'm with you.
Starting point is 00:32:14 It's a game where I did think we'd have it as one of our five, and now as the days have gone along here, it's just like, you know what? Why don't we just say it and wait and see on that one? Dude, you know it's Marvin Harrison, right? Yeah. You know the whole joke, right? No. You never say the man's name.
Starting point is 00:32:26 Why? I can tell you why, but there's a reason you never say that man's name. It's like Voldemort? I don't know the joke. You know what? You don't even want to press it. You don't want to press it. You don't want to press it.
Starting point is 00:32:35 You're not from Philly. You don't know. I don't want to like, I think I know where this is going, having done some stories on Marvin Harrison senior back in the day. Oh my God. I don't want to give Matt Mitchell anything he's got to cut out. Houston at Indy, this was our assignment says it's now at 3 at Bet 365, so it's ticked up. This is public money.
Starting point is 00:32:58 I think this is a game that's going to go higher. We are investing in something that we believe in, not something we've seen, with Anthony Richardson but that divisional dog trend that I mentioned earlier in the show that is in play here the same one that the Panthers had the advantage over the Saints the dogs between one and five and a half that's a check fading the short favorite on the road especially that's a check I don't know maybe we wait until Sunday to see if we can get a better number but but obviously we're going to go with the Colts in the contest yeah and I don't mind taking the two and a half but I think me and you joked last night about it right where you're saying what's your hesitation here I said
Starting point is 00:33:36 the kids made 17 starts since high school. Like Anthony Richardson, he doesn't have the reps. That's the fear, and that's why I understand why the public is coming in so heavy on Houston. Also, you mix on the fact the Colts have won, what, one game and the week one in like 10 years. I mean, they're one of the worst teams historically in this week one, and that's people playing the trends, right?
Starting point is 00:33:58 They're just back in the trends there. What really signaled to me, Chad, was this tweet I saw yesterday. Bookmakers said they have four times the amount of money right now on Houston than do have Colts. That this will literally dictate, this one game will dictate their entire Sunday compared to any other game. If you listen to the show long enough,
Starting point is 00:34:17 this is where I want to be. I want to be with the books. Even if this doesn't hit, this is a long-term winner. The book, like we say all the time, there's a reason all those hotels exist in Atlantic City in Las Vegas, right? The book's long term, they're going to win these ones. So to me, when I hear
Starting point is 00:34:32 bookmakers saying they have four times the amount of money on Houston, then they do on any other side. Oh my God, it feels so good. Like, that's why I'm so happy we got the three now. Even in our contest, if it's two and a half, I have no hesitation. Oh, see, I was going to say to you in the contest, do we feel strongly enough at two and a half. I do. Okay. Because, like, all of a sudden, we'll be... This number's not landing on three. Well, I'm just saying, like, all of a sudden it could be, we're faced with an option of jags at three and a half or Colts at two and a half. Honestly, I would go Colts there. Okay. All right. The closest
Starting point is 00:35:06 one I am being bullied and taken out of is that giant's game we talked about just because of respect I have for all these other professionals where it's like I get their hesitation with it. I'm kind of digging my heels in on that one where this one it's not so much I'm just playing the numbers right like this this one is purely I feel like this game should be one Houston should be favored by one maybe at a pick the number's just grown too much there's just been too much going on for this number to grow this guy. I have no problem taking the Vikings Giants game out of our five and not having to sweat that on Sunday night or Monday night.
Starting point is 00:35:41 No, I kind of want you to sweat it though. You know, like we got so many of their games we like, and this one we're getting so many conflicting signals. I kind of want to skip Denver and Seattle. I don't think it's going to make our final five. And especially I've seen a lot of books already shifted up to the six. For us, I was hoping this would drop down to five and a half, Maybe we would get lucky into professional money with coming on Denver.
Starting point is 00:36:07 They're the same view as us. It's a rookie bone-nicks on the road against the 12th man and what we perceive to be one of the better defensive minds of football. So that money is never going to shift. This number is what it is, right? It's kind of stuck where it's at. So I'm agreeing with it. I just can't be this being our one favorite we put in.
Starting point is 00:36:22 Washington at Tampa, Tampa 3 and a half right now. This one, like, all the trends are sort of leaning in the direction we want them to. And I've talked about the luck rankings earlier. The luck rankings are in my head a little bit. Like, I know everything about rookie QBs and Jaden Daniels and sort of the trends against betting that. But Baker is 14 and 26 as a favorite. Todd Bowles is 7 and 14 as a favorite of three or more. We have talked about the Panthers a lot because of the luck rankings.
Starting point is 00:36:59 At the opposite end of that, one of the luckier teams last year, was the bucks. We are fading the bucks. We like their season win total under. I know Nick Giffin has been saying to fans, go find a bucks to finish last in the NFC South bet. Yeah. I don't want to put this in the contest, but I feel obligated to at least finish the conversation. Yeah, I have no read on this one, honestly. Okay. This is the game where I bet props. I bet Mike Evans over receiving props just because we talk about bad secondaries. Washington is another team that has a horrible secondary. I'm looking forward to just watching Jayden Daniels.
Starting point is 00:37:42 I don't want to put too much money on this one because Chad's right. Like in my soul, I wanted to bet Baker, especially when this touched three. This was at three almost all day yesterday at a couple books. That's honestly where I wanted to be at. I wanted to take Baker at three. Now this is up to three and a half. Yeah, of course, the better in me is like, why don't you just take the three and a half with Jayden Daniels? Like this feels like a coin flip game.
Starting point is 00:38:02 I just can't do it. I can't pull the churg on. There's just too many unknowns for me, Chad. Good. Now we're narrowing it down. If you are in the production room, listen to me. Come to camera one because guess what? It is time for the big balls bed of the week.
Starting point is 00:38:20 Presented by Tommy John. That's right. Our Big Ball's Bed of the Week is presented by our newest sponsor, Tommy John. Listen, you guys who listen to the first show, you know how much I love Tommy John. I was trying to think of a way before I came in this morning how to describe how much I love Tommy John. And I started to think about like affordable luxury. These are things that just make you feel good that are completely affordable. This Tommy John, it's softer than other underwear, it's lighter.
Starting point is 00:38:55 You put it on, you just, you feel better. It is the MVP of my underwear drawer in Tommy John. I can do everything, including betting. I feel more confident as a better in my second skin underwear, Tommy John. Our producer tells me a lot of listeners complained. I talked way too much about my underwear last episode, but guess what? I don't care. If you love Simon and I, if you love this show, you'll love Tommy John, get 25%
Starting point is 00:39:28 sent off your first order right now at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. Save 25% at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites, which means, Simon, Tommy John has just told us it's time for the big balls. Better the week. We were going to make it a different game. And then I just called an audible because it feels like we are dug in on the lions. And the wise guys like the Rams. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:39:58 Like, we say this about trends, right? We like these trends when they're 58%, 60%, 71%, for talking about divisional games. But that also means that like five and a half out of 10, four out of 10, you're going to lose that bet also. I feel like we're trying to thread the needle with this Lions team here. And look, like this could go to four. So I think if people want to get it,
Starting point is 00:40:26 They got to get it now because the juice is on three and a half minus 120. But there's more money on the Lions. I would have no problem putting them in the contest if we are looking to put in a favorite. The Lions have the best three-year stretch against the spread since the Patriots in that 2016 to 2018 range. Jared Goff 25 and 9 against the spread indoors. Jared Goff undefeated against the spread as a starter during his career. Like, we do have concerns about the Rams defense without Aaron Donald. We love the Lions' foundationally offensive line, defensive line.
Starting point is 00:41:04 I'm not afraid. Yeah, this is going to be the by far our chalkies, but maybe even of the season. Like, this, there doesn't get more chalky than this. I talked to two bookmakers yesterday. Ask them, what's your guys view on this game, how the numbers look in? It's about two to three times the amount of money right now is on the lines than it is on the Rams. Are you afraid? No, because I view it as I'm not afraid.
Starting point is 00:41:23 We think this number should be four, four and a half. It's three and a half. And we have questions right now about the Rams. We have questions about the Rams offensive line. We have questions what their identity is going to be without Aaron Donald and that young secondary. None of that. None of that at all with this Detroit team. Maybe we do have some questions about the new pieces they added to their secondary.
Starting point is 00:41:43 But I just feel so confident this offense. And I think they are going to be able to run this ball down the Rams throat. Like that's where we're going to see the biggest difference of losing Aaron. and Donald, what he did in that middle, not just in past rushing, but eating up two to three blockers on rushing. Like, this guy was just an animal. And, you know, not the everyday person realizes that, but this guy was really that important to this team.
Starting point is 00:42:06 So, you know, the Gibbs, David Montgomery, a two-headed horse we think Detroit has in that backfield, that's going to set up Leporta and Almond St. Brown. Like, that to me is the big difference here. And we already talked about people know we love this offensive line. Like the lines, I'd have to go back and grade it, but I think they're either in my second. or number one offensive line heading to this season. It's like this team is so complete. That's why we joked.
Starting point is 00:42:29 Like they should be the one seed in the NFC. Like it's all there for this season. It's just hard to say that about the Lions. It's hard to say about the line. Here in week one at home, that doesn't worry in me at all. So don't think we're the chalk is. We do chalky picks like this. This is just lining up with us.
Starting point is 00:42:44 You don't think like you're just saying that to new people. Like we have asked people so far to bet on the Giants, the Panthers, the Colts, we're talking about Daniel Jones, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, who you said has played 17 games. We don't have to defend ourselves from making a smart chalky pick. That is the right pick. You might have to defend yourself for saying, like, for not being afraid of taking the lines, but being afraid to say Marvin Harrison, like he's Voldemort.
Starting point is 00:43:16 You're playing with fire, Chad. You don't even know. We'll see how it goes when we eventually do our, you know, live show. That's what I'm saying. You're going to Philly. We're going to Philly. You know what you're doing right now. We're going, Philly.
Starting point is 00:43:26 Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you.
Starting point is 00:43:53 get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast, Point Game is about defining the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before.
Starting point is 00:44:12 And he knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series, because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us
Starting point is 00:44:32 on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers while he got the ball, like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah,
Starting point is 00:44:49 you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the balls. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Now, everybody over here? Oh, it's one of my other favorite places. The Twilight Gazebo.
Starting point is 00:45:05 Sunset Gardens, Twilight Gazebo. What's next? Dead Man's Grove? Mom, could you please try to be a little bit positive about this? From Kenya Barris, the visionary creator of Blackish, comes Big Age, an Audible original about finding your way in life's next chapter.
Starting point is 00:45:26 This audio comedy series follows a retired couple's reluctant relocation to Sunset Gardens, a Floridian senior community that is anything but relaxing. Starring Comedy Legends Jennifer Lewis, Cedric the Entertainer, and Nisi Nashvettes. Through its blend of outrageous comedy, key party anyone? And touching revelations, Big Age explores what it means to grow older without growing old at heart. Go to audible.com slash big age series to start listening today. Hey, I'm Joe Rodano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet.
Starting point is 00:46:00 Help! Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than me. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives,
Starting point is 00:46:14 helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian! I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice.
Starting point is 00:46:35 One ring is too scary. Oh, cream of chicken suit. Hey, cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrite as part of the Mike Cultur Podcast Network available on the I-Hart Radio app,
Starting point is 00:46:52 Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Conky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner,
Starting point is 00:47:15 we'll be breaking down the biggest story. lines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right. Last game on the board that we want to talk about. New York Jets at San Francisco. Look, seriously, right? Trent Williams effect.
Starting point is 00:47:37 This line was at three and a half. Trent Williams signs. It goes up to four. Now it's at four and a half. Like, that is rare for an offensive lineman to have that much of an impact on a point spread. only reason this thing is moving. Reminders since the 2000 Super Bowl, the Super, or since 2000 season, the Super Bowl losers, 10 and 14 straight up, 5 and 19 against the spread. When
Starting point is 00:48:00 they're favored by over a field goal, 4 or 9 against the spread. So like we like the Jets, we liked them at 3 and 1 half. I like him at 4. I like him at 4.5. Again, Chad hit you with that trend. That's the big thing. But the biggest sticking point is for me and Chad, we feel like this Jets team coming in here is just being under a bad. And that's the simple fact of Aaron Rogers has not played football in a long time. But when he has played, he's played really well. And again, I know it's been two years. But this team, can we all agree, this Jets team right here,
Starting point is 00:48:35 is probably better than those Green Bay teams from back then. Like, they went out and they did improve this offensive line this offseason. Like they did go out and get him a number two receiver on Mike Williams, who is healthy for this game we should perceive. But even if it's not, they've gone out and got a rookie receiver. They went out and got Lizard, who I know people think that's a joke, but Lazar has a rhythm and a repertoire with Rogers, which is a big deal in these kind of games.
Starting point is 00:48:57 So the Trent Williams moving this by a point makes total sense when he is the best left tackle in football. So he should be moving this line like he did. But can we all agree? It's just it has not felt right with this 49ers team. No, no, not at all. Things that might have got corrected, because they do have the structure there, right?
Starting point is 00:49:17 They have a great front office. I mean, people want to knock John Lynch for some of his first-round picks. It doesn't really matter when he's nailing all of his other late-round picks. Like, this guy, for all of his bad, you know, Trey Lance picks, he's got Brock Purdy. Like, this is a home run hit by him, this guy. So I do want to give him his flowers in Jed York for stepping up and paying these guys, which was just bizarre a world, not just getting Ayyuk or him in the building. But I think we need to capitalize earlier in the season of Trent Williams' missing camp.
Starting point is 00:49:46 Iyuk only being there for a week. Like, come on. If there's going to be a stumble for this 49ers team in the season, it feels like it's going to be here out of the gate, right? Like, this is kind of where it is. And, you know, McCaffrey didn't practice for a month. I know he is back now, but there's just a lot to pick at where the Jets, oh my God, Aaron Rogers went to Egypt and back in May.
Starting point is 00:50:08 Like, that's been the knock or Hassan Reddick, a guy who's never even played on their team never showed up to camp. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. It hasn't played on the team. And on a defensive line. that is one of the best defensive lines in football already. Yeah, and obviously, yes, it'd be much better if he was there.
Starting point is 00:50:22 And they do have a depth issue on that defensive line. But maybe, you know, just as good lineback in core. I mean, just because Navarra Bowman is not who he was because he's coming back off an injury, it's like there is a lot to love with this Jed's team. So if we're just going matchup scheme-wise, they remind me a lot of what that Ravens team was last year that gave so much trouble to this 49ers offense. And that's really what I'm banking on here.
Starting point is 00:50:46 Another team, Chad, that we debated about putting our money line around Robin because we do love the money line here. How do you not love the four and a half, right? This game feels like it will come down to a field goal or a four point finish. So love it that it's back up with the four and a half. I know there's a couple of books out there at three and a half. I expect once the public money keeps coming and this will keep going up to four and a half in most books. You mentioned our underdog money line parlay. We did ask our sponsor, Beth 365, to give you.
Starting point is 00:51:16 us an underdog money line parlay an odds boost this season and guess what because they love us and they love you they said yes so each week we will give out a two-team money line dog parlay bet 365 will have that highlighted on their site all weekend with boosted odds you know where you can get bet 365 i read the states where you're eligible twice a show every show. Your week one boosted underdog parlay that will be highlighted at Bet365. Get ready. Carolina and Bryce Young and the Panthers beating the Saints, Anthony Richardson,
Starting point is 00:52:10 Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts beating the Texans in Indianapolis. The boost will be featured on Bet365 soon. More listeners who bet these boosts, by the way, the more picks we can get boosted. Both games are also eligible for Bet365's early payout promo. This is one of my favorite things they did last season. Your Moneyline pick gets marked as a win if they take a 17-point lead, even if they go on to blow the game. So this matters whether you're betting an underdog or a favorite.
Starting point is 00:52:41 It doesn't matter. That team goes up by 17 points. You win the bet. Definitely bet it at Bet 365. All right, Simon. survivor. The Survivor pool pick of the week. Seattle or Bengals?
Starting point is 00:53:01 That's sort of where I'm landing, but you got any thoughts? If you're in two survivor pools, split them up. Never put all your eggs in one basket. Cincinnati is basically the one everyone's going to bank on to lose because they figure everyone in Joe Public's going to pick them. But it's also like
Starting point is 00:53:17 this is a nice time to use Cincinnati, right? Historically, people are going to keep pointing to, well, they've struggled in week one. Then we already talking about that, Chad? It's like Joe Burroughs never had an offseason, right? Every camp he's always either injured or he's missing days in camp. This year he never missed a day in camp. He was there all all camp. The hesitation with Chase, I understand if this was an incredibly tough matchup. So New England Patriots, one of the worst teams we perceive in all of football with, you know.
Starting point is 00:53:47 Basically playing a backup quarterback. Yes, with an offensive line that we view as one of the more suspect offensive lines in all football. So, I think we will eventually have a time when we'll start backing New England in these type of spots and we might even put them in our money land, Ron Robin. This is not that spot, right? So for me, if you want to go really safe, I trust Cincinnati. If you want to be a little different and use a team that we don't know when else, we're going to be able to use them just because their division is so hard, I like Seattle.
Starting point is 00:54:19 Like Seattle, we already talked about it. I have a lot of respect right now for the NFC West. I don't think the Cardinals will be a walkover, which would be an easy picket for Seattle Survivor. So, yeah, for our, because we have to pick one for our show. Do you just want to go Cincy or where do you want to go there? Let's go Cincy. Let's go Cincy. So we're going the most public pick for Survivor, Week 1.
Starting point is 00:54:42 And we're making a huge public bet on the Lions, which we are sure we'll get in our final five, which I'll review at the end of the show. We got a couple more segments. Simon's biggest bets right now. Are you going to place a bet or what? Giants. The Giants are definitely up there. I would say the Colts and the Jets I've just put the most in. Again, the Jets I'd been betting for the last month when I really did think we wouldn't see Trent Williams until October.
Starting point is 00:55:07 Him coming back and his reasonings were coming back. They're very human, right? He saw his teammate almost lose his life and it kind of put perspective for him. And he was just like, what am I doing here? Why am I staying home over a couple million where I need to be with my guy? So getting him back was a big deal. Hasn't really shifted my view of it. It's like I bet it at four and a half.
Starting point is 00:55:27 Now it's back up to four and a half. I still love it at four and a half. Chad's right, though. Like I really love the Giants, the Panthers, right? I started betting them and when they were at six, it's like about five and a half. I've taken them at four and a half. If you're still late to the party and there's a four out there,
Starting point is 00:55:44 I don't mind taking the four as well. So right now those are definitely my three biggest bets. I suspect come Sunday, I probably will have a lot more on this Lions team. Is the week going along here, I just really love them and just how it lays out for their matchup against this Rams team. So right now those are definitely my three biggest bets. All right. So now we've got to do Scutroulette.
Starting point is 00:56:05 For those who are new to the show, those who... We're bringing it back? We're bringing it back. Bob Scucci, who is a guy that I wrote about in my best-selling book, called the odds about guys who were betting on sports for a living. He was the bookmaker at the Starters Hotel. He was a longtime co-host of this podcast with me when I started it at ESPN
Starting point is 00:56:25 and then brought her over when we launched action. He and I used to play a game every week, one-to-one, one-on-one, head-to-head matchup. We called it Scoot Chouch Roulette. Simon and I have carried on that tradition. Scoot Rulette. Simon, I will let you go first. Give me the pick you want to make.
Starting point is 00:56:43 I feel like I know exactly what it should be. You don't. I'm going to shock people. Just because we didn't talk about this game and it's totally off board and chat when they would see it coming. I'm going to go with the homework pick and take the Eagles at minus 2.5.
Starting point is 00:56:55 In the NFL international series, favorites are 33, 10 and 1 straight up, 29 and 15, 66% against the spread in international game. So give me them birds now that it's under 3. I love Green Bay at 3. Now that I'm getting 2, 2.5 with this Eagles team, I think this will come down to a field goal.
Starting point is 00:57:16 I'll take the Eagles here. Chad Milman, who proudly hails from Chicago, loves the city like no other, even though he hasn't lived there in 30-something years. Are you going to tell us how there's no place like Chicago in the summer? It's the greatest city in the world in the summer. I was just there about a month ago. It's the freaking best.
Starting point is 00:57:40 I'm going with the Tennessee Titans Plus 4. Oh, God. There we go. Evan Abrams. It's time to bring in our buddy Evan. before we get out of here, he is our director of research. He's going to give us the final word on a couple of things that we need to know, Evan. The last word with Evan Abrams.
Starting point is 00:58:00 We're finished talking. What's up, fellas? I got two things for you today, and I'll start with this. Only at the Action Network, could we have a game with this much contention, and it'd be Giants and Vikings this weekend with all the great games we have. But if you like the Giants, you probably do because you have faith in Brian Daibble. So Daibel is 63% against a spread in his coaching career with the Giants. That is highest among all head coaches over the last 20 years with a minimum of 10 games coached.
Starting point is 00:58:26 And the greatest part about it, Daibble has had four different starting quarterbacks. All four are above 500 against a spread with the team. Listen to this murderer's row. Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Danny DeVito, The Trash is a gold mine. And Davis Webb. Brian Daibble does an incredible job with whatever he has. So in this situation, getting the point in a half, I can understand it.
Starting point is 00:58:49 I'll give you one more on Dable. So the Giants actually opened as a favorite and looks like they're going to close as the underdog. That's already happened to Dable six times in New York. He's covered five of those six. So he kind of likes the number. Maybe they lose by one and you get the hook here. So I knew you guys like the Giants. I had to toss it in there.
Starting point is 00:59:08 Yeah, you don't have to worry about that. He keeps his composure. Pretty simple. Go out there and rip that son of bitch. And then here's a great one. I found this literally last night. I message Matt Mitchell. I tell him I can't believe this is true.
Starting point is 00:59:21 It's just really fun. So Derek Carr has won 57% of his game straight up as a favorite. Nothing crazy there in his career. About what you'd expect. When he plays as a favorite indoors, perfect conditions, he's actually only 9 and 13 straight up. That's four games under 500. In the last 20 years, only one other quarterback is four plus games under
Starting point is 00:59:45 500 as an indoor favorite. That is Derek's brother, David Carr, who is Owen 4 straight up in that spot. So the cars 9 and 17 straight up. I know everyone's on Carolina. I just couldn't believe it when I saw David's name, but the spot's there. Everything he's telling us is giving me so much confidence. I know you're the best, I appreciate that. It's almost like I'm almost buoyed.
Starting point is 01:00:18 I'm going to walk out of here on air. Thank you, Evan. Simon, I feel like we got, I see seven games right now that we've whittled it down that we want to choose from. The games that are still on my list, Steelers, three and a half, Jags, three and a half, Giants, one and a half. Panthers, plus four, Colts, if we can get to three and a half, but probably two and a half. Lions, three and a half, jets, four and a half. So either we're getting rid of the Steelers and Jags. entrance? I definitely see the Steelers not making it, right? I just don't think we'll ever get
Starting point is 01:00:55 that number we want. But that jag one is tough. Like, I want to get that in, but after hearing from our guy, Evan. And the Giants? You got to pry that on my dead hands. Like, I'm so in on this Giants team. He's just, he's a great coach and people are just underrating them. I mean, it's ridiculous how much hate this team's getting. All right, so here's how this is going to go for people who follow along and are playing in the contest. Simon and I are going to put our picks in the contest after this show, preliminary. and early. And then we will judge it again on Sunday after we do convince me our live show 11 a.m. watching on Action Network YouTube. Subscribe, like to what you're watching now, follow the show,
Starting point is 01:01:31 convince me and this and all of our shows in the action app. After we do convince me on Sunday morning, Simon and I will put our picks into the app, the Faves 5 feed, follow that handle in the app and you'll see what we ultimately end up with. But we're probably going to put five in now just to lock in some numbers and see how things change. As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. This just in new Bet365 customers now get $200 in bonus bets when you bet five bucks. Sign up using promo code Favorites. Deposit $10 and place a bet for $5 to get $200 in bonus bets.
Starting point is 01:02:10 Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. If Bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona. Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1,800 gambler, or 1,800 bets off in Iowa, terms, conditions, restrictions, apply. All right. Reminder.
Starting point is 01:02:36 Sign up, favorites.actionnetwork.com. Not only is it free, not only do you have the chance to win something from a prize pool of $100,000 with a first place prize of $40,000, a second place prize of $10,000, top 10 get paid out, season long. You can win $1,000 every week if you finish first. You do not have to pay anything to enter this. The bonus, you get to compete against me and Simon.
Starting point is 01:03:02 So every week, you can be listening to us and say, oh my God, I'm smarter than those schmucks because you are ahead of us in the contest. Think about that as pure joy. Don't forget, if you're watching us on YouTube, like, subscribe to the Action Network YouTube, You can always follow along. Lines move as we're talking,
Starting point is 01:03:19 so it helps to watch live. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the favorites on the Action Network YouTube page. It's our Sunday show. Remember, we bring back the Sunday shows during the season. We're going to go over the five picks
Starting point is 01:03:29 we ultimately made. We will talk about the heartbreak. We will talk about the joy. We will also take an early look at the lines that get posted. We're off the air before the Sunday night football game starts. We will clearly be betting and sweating the lions.
Starting point is 01:03:42 Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate reviews. subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
Starting point is 01:04:07 help is available 24-7 at 1-800 gambler. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's, Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band
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Starting point is 01:05:11 It's your responsibility to not just seek help, but to identify that you need help. This is Mental Health Awareness Month. Tune in to the podcast, Just Healed with Dr. J. and take real steps toward healing, growth, and becoming your best self. From understanding your mental health to doing the work, we break down practical tools, real conversations, and the mindset shifts you need to move forward and thrive. It's time to stop putting your healing on hold and start doing something about it.
Starting point is 01:05:36 Listen to Jess Heel with Dr. Jay on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. On the Ceno Show podcast, each episode invites you into a raw, unfiltered conversations about recovery, resilience, and redemption. On a recent episode, I sit down with actor, cultural icon Danny Trail, to talk about addiction, transformation, and the power of second chances. The entire season two is now available to bench, featuring powerful conversation with the guests like Tiffany Addish, Johnny Knoxville, and more. I'm an alcoholic.
Starting point is 01:06:03 And without this group, I'm going to die. Listen to the Cino show on the IHare Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I'm Joey Dardano. And on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant,
Starting point is 01:06:26 recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to me. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from a Hypocrite Wednesdays on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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